Australia stands at the precipice. The Indo-Pacific is now entering the most dangerous strategic period since the Second World War. The People’s Republic of China has embarked in the greatest peacetime military expansion, especially in the maritime domain, seen anywhere since the 1910s. And just as that militarization generated the geopolitical tensions that led to the Great War, exceptionally dangerous Sino-American competition is the defining feature of both Australia’s region and our time.
The Australian military’s reaction to this dynamic and rapidly deteriorating strategic environment had been highly problematic. Dysfunctional platform acquisition and development has been made worse by a convoluted grand strategy which has been far too focused on the rather mundane problems of the prior strategic epoch, as opposed to the extremely dangerous situation the nation was now facing. The result of this dysfunction is the Defence Strategic Review and the new strategic doctrine of National Defence. This comprehensive reform of the ADF has profound implications for the wider Australian military, including the largest expansion of the Royal Australian Navy since the second world war.
But are these reforms enough, and does the fundamental strategic and operational doctrine which forms the foundation of the National Defence paradigm represent a wise course for Canberra to chart? This expensive analysis examines the history of Australian strategic thought, unpacks the National Defence doctrine including the concept of Deterrence by Denial, explores the changes to the Royal Australian Navy and how this new naval force structure could be employed within several campaign scenarios. Finally, the far more contentious abandonment of Plan Beersheba and the reduction in LAND-400 Phase 3 is also examined.
Australia’s environment is rapidly changing, and so is the ADF, but only history will decide whether the changes that have been made are enough.
0:00 Forward Defence and the Defence of Australia Doctrine
37:29 INTERFET and the Global War on Terror
1:10:48 The Wasted Decade: China’s Rise and Force 2030
1:56:48 The Defence Strategic Review: National Defence, a Strategy of Denial and Deterrence by Denial
2:42:10 Campaign Scenarios: A Defensive Naval Battle in the Sea-Air Gap
3:45:06 Campaign Scenarios: Sea Line of Communication Defence
4:04:38 Campaign Scenarios: Offensive Amphibious Operations
4:21:26 The Independent Fleet Review and the Future Surface Fleet
5:16:55 The Land Domain: The Focused Force, Littoral Maneuver and the Abandonment of Plan Beersheba
5:48:51 The Air, Space and Cyber Domains
5:57:39 A Pathology in Australian Strategic Thought
24 Comments
Woke means socialism with no protection.
No protection against poisonous foods.
No protection against anti human practices.
No protection from outside military threats.
Since 1972 we have been under a socialist spell in government.
Economic disintegration and military wind down.
To avoid war, you must prepare for war.
We in Australia are woefully u der prepared.
❤🇦🇺🪃✅️
Lee Linda Clark Jose Taylor Nancy
Magnificent! How surprising our own government are to blame for being asleep at the wheel when it comes to defence and fuel security. I can't believe our government built a ship with no weapons!!! It is laughable if it wasn't true.
6:21min. I thought for H3 a tiny clip — no it was a 6x HOUR documentary! A whole semester in one video! Aussies should spin up a few more munitions factories.
Bartoletti Cove
Who's Gunna fight in your wars ? More n more waking up. Cops can't get pigs either
it took some time, yes I made it through.
1) your last 1/2 hr (where you review your suggestions in the light of is this the same again). Napoleon I believe said "order counter-order, disorder". The trouble with designing a strategy to suit a current world order is that it'll change. And as we've seen the underlying mission of the ADF has changed pretty much 180 degrees every 10 years. Having a small force available for deployment whilst the rest of the force is "spooling up" (and "spooling down") seems to be a rational way to maintain force levels. Sure, not as high as a maximum effort. Sure maybe we should have done things like "end of rotation exercise" with two brigade groups (the one stepping up to deployment and the one stepping down for rest and training, coming off deployment). Sure we should do more with the 2nd Division, one thing they should be ready and able to do is activate an underground militia (in the event things go "tits up").
2) what proportion of GDP are we planning to spend on this 5% ? 10% ?? Sometime in the future, people will say why so much when we need more spent on social welfare. Mate, sure as eggs are round.
3) why should Australia build their own ships and subs ? Why not buy overseas ? Stepping up to maintain this fleet is plenty of a stretch goal. Buying Virginias ? wow, what'll that cost ?? where's the crew ??
4) the major problem with your strategy as I see it is we'll invest countless wealth in developing it and will it be fit for purpose in 10 years time ? We just flushed hundreds of millions over the Collins replacement only to return to the same previous decision made 10 years ago (not to go nuke) and now we're going nuke. sigh.
5) Building a continuous production line for ships or subs would be fabulous, but the cost is equally fabulous. Buying overseas designs is rational because our production requirements are so small.
6) You wargamed a scenario where the ADF deployed to the north to respond to a threat. So in the real world, a PLAN sub (possibly pre-positioned) would surface off Bateman's Bay and Canberra would be a memory, possibly Sydney too.
I wish the word "communism" didn't mean authoritarian capitalism now instead of it's original definition
Australia does have strategic weight if it responds to Chinese aggression by blocking the Strait of Malacca. China is heavily dependent on its economic survival via trade through that Strait. It can be achieved however at the expense of every other nation in the region so it wouldn’t be a popular move. Sea mines, submarines lying in wait with type 48 torpedoes. An AWD parked at Christmas Island armed with Tomahawk anti ship (variant) missiles. ( where there’s a will – there’s a way!)
Realistically China does huge trade with Australia so it would be hurting itself by attacking us.
As for Australia’s oil consumption and the meagre reserves mentioned here, what has not been recognised or advertised is that like the USA, Australia has vast shale oil reserves that subsequent governments refuse to acknowledge or access because of environmental concerns espoused by both climate change zealots and the woke establishment ( which includes the Banking industry that will not finance access to shale oil. Basically Australia needs our own Donald Trump who will take on the ‘woke establishment’ and establish the mindset of Australians the need for a sovereign shale oil industry. One of the largest shale oil reserves in the world exists in South Australia under the Arkaringa Basin ( some estimates put it at approaching the reserves of Saudi Arabia.
I say it’s time to prioritise National security above the shrill voices and the climate change zealots or this may be the last generation whereby this nation exists as Australia
You make good videos. Pls make more of it. New video good.
Thanks!
All too late.
Outstanding!
What would Britain deploy? Maybe we could spare an Astute or two? Plus the Carrier Strike Group.
I’d have thought Arrowhead 140 would be under consideration for the Tier 2 surface combatant?
china's carriers are not "capables" since they haven't proved squat. the kuznetzovs they are based on only proved they could make lots of smoke
Are you done with TT? How do I stay up to date with your content?
Hey man just saw on the news the Australians are buying $7B worth of SM2 and SM6’s.
Yo are you ever coming back to tiktok?
There is so much to digest and understand from this presentation. One run through and now a chapter x chapter contemplation.
There goes my November plans….. no regrets ( as Billy Holiday once sang )
Thanks for your work and YT for disseminating…. Good luck to all of our kids…
….. everything else is quite petty, really…..❤️☮️🎶
Addendum :- “ of course, November 5 US election could pop up another interesting wrinkle …”
How many “ 99 year leases “ has the PRC acquired in the Pacific ….? …. And where ?
Thankfully, the USA is not a liberal Democracy. We are a constitutional republic. A huge reminder is on it's way to the body politic.
If you ever find yourself in QLD I have a lecture hall VERY interested in meeting you.
– CO of a Navy Cadet Unit