Global Finance Chess Game, Role of Gold | Tom Luongo UNCUT

Tom Luongo joins for an open discussion about global finance theatrics. What is the role of Janet Yellen? What are the economic consequences of the current monetary policies? Tom Luongo does NOT hold back and shares his point of view with us.

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Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver
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Guest: Tom Luongo
Company: Gold, Goats ‘N Guns
🌎https://tomluongo.me
𝕏 @TFL1728

Recording date: February 26th, 2024

#gold #JanetYellen #inflation

Timestamps (AI generated)
00:00 – Introduction to the show and topics to be discussed.
01:00 – Introduction of guest Tom Luongo and overview of his previous predictions.
03:00 – Discussion on the global economy and US markets.
05:00 – Analysis of gold, oil, and investment opportunities.
07:00 – Critique of Federal Reserve policies and Jerome Powell’s strategy.
10:00 – Examination of current economic data and its implications.
13:00 – Predictions on the US economy and potential financial crisis.
16:00 – Insights into liquidity, the Fed’s strategies, and global financial impacts.
20:00 – Debunking myths about the US’s financial position and capital.
23:00 – Geopolitical strategies and the shift towards domestic monetary policy.
26:00 – The potential for a liquidity crisis and Janet Yellen’s role.
29:00 – Effects of Fed policies on banks and the shift towards traditional banking.
32:00 – Political implications of monetary policy and speculation on future elections.
35:00 – Critique of the financial and political elite’s globalist projects.
38:00 – Discussion on the future of Fed policies and international banking relations.
41:00 – Deep dive into the implications of current policies on global finance.
44:00 – Analysis of commercial real estate and the banking sector.
47:00 – The role of liquidity and credit in the current economic environment.
50:00 – Final thoughts on the US economy, global finance, and the political landscape.
53:00 – Conclusion and wrap-up of the discussion

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Janny Ellen is a globalist and a Trader okay so now stop thinking in terms of the fact that she’s a responsible anything she’s not she’s a lieutenant she’s running a part she’s a project manager running her part of the Gant chart her job undermine Jerome Powell how do you do That hello and welcome everybody welcome back to Sora financially where we discuss the macro to understand the micro my name is Kai Hoff and I’m thejr mining guy on Twitter and the CEO of the sore Financial Group really appreciate you joining us here for another Lively discussion on the global economy us

Markets gold oil and many many other things have a long list of topics prepared for our guest today because he’s a returning guest so we’re going to recap some of his predictions and forast from about seven months ago and we’re going to discuss of course where are we

Going where are we headed he made some predictions on his website he called it the goat prediction so we’re going to catch up with him now two months into the year see where we’re at how happy is with his calls and where are things trending of course as well and uh I’ve

Noticed on this channel we’re always quite negative so maybe we can find some positives as well where should we park our money where can we make a bit of return and profit as well again nothing is investment advice we’re just delivering information keep that in mind

But uh as I said we’re always Doom and Gloom for some reason on the channel I’m German I always look for the straw that breaks the camels back so I’m look we got to look for some positives as well of course in this really really exuberant Market that we’re in right now

Now without further Ado and with you hitting that subscribe button once you hit it I’ll hit I’ll hit the switch button I’m just kidding I’m going to introduce my guest now Tom long Longo thank you so much for joining us it’s great to have you back on the program

Tom uh good morning K how are you as well good morning over here good afternoon over in Germany so um yeah it’s great to be here thank you absolutely looking forward to this discussion here Tom it’s it’s been long overdue that we catch up as well um gold

Golds and guns of course I think we can sort of dissect or understand where the discussion is trending of course in Safety First I have to admit I’m really looking forward to this um but before we dive into some of the detailed topics Tom Let’s uh let’s sort of set the

Framework of our discussion and uh that maybe a bit of the mood as well where where do you think the economy is right now how are we doing how are things looking oh I mean that’s a really complicated question because it all depends on you know what part of the

Economy you want to look at and what agenda is is being fulfilled what I’ve argued for a while now is that drone over at the FED raised interest rates because he understood that he was he had to kind of take a punch in the mouth economically in order to regain control

Of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve by resting it from the control of the Shadow banking system that was you know built and and puffed up to high heaven during the zero bound interest rate years and negative bound interest rate years in in Europe and we’re the

Question is where are we in that part of the cycle how much of a punch in the mouth have we taken we going to take a bigger you know is there another one on the horizon and the economic data is mixed right the official American government headline numbers the CPI the

Employment statistics and whatnot are better than everybody expected right and on the other side of it you know layoffs are up and um and you know commercial real estate valuations are finally starting to come starting to to crack and like we’re starting to all of those things that we expected that many

Expected not me but many expected to see when pal first started raising rates and here we are two and a half years into the or two years into the rate cycle rate hike cycle and yeah well you know things aren’t great but what would you expect when you went from

Zero to 5.5% and then held them there for nine months um you would not expect things to be great um so I just I don’t this is what we we should have expected and the bigger question is is why would you have expected a bigger crisis when there was so much liquidity floating

Around when Powell had2 and half trillion dollars worth of excess reserves sitting in Reverse repos and um the Biden Administration is running a six to s% of GDP budget deficit that’s you know slashing money into the economy and then Powell’s empowered Savers at five and a half percent that’s going to

Raise liquidity as well so like there was never a an there was never the the the environment for a kind of credit crisis that the doom and gloomer you know have been arguing for for a long time now since pal started raising rats and while I don’t disagree with their

Ultimate analysis I think their timing is way off I think the I think the rate Apocalypse in the United States is at least two or three years down the line unless of course we get into like World War III or something like that but you know that’s a that’s a different part of

The discussion so there you go that’s where I think we are I think we’re on the cusp of you know an honest to God recession in real terms but not in nominal terms because there’s too much money floating around for us to get a nominal recession I.E contraction in GDP

And spending um but you know inflation’s up stack inflation is here it’s exactly what I expected and you know the only good news is that we’ve had a bit of a commodity bust in the shortterm and that’s going to that’s beginning to come back so lots of fantastic points you

Mentioned there Tom I want to follow up on and I think the first one is liquidity um I’m a bit surprised also like by by the interest rate environment the lag effects thereof you you mentioned they’re finally starting to crack um why has it taken two and a half

Years was it uh because everybody says the Powell that Powell chairman Powell’s raced aggressively maybe too fast even to a degree but uh no nobody talks about like how long it’s taken for the effects to kick in because they haven’t raised rates since July now we’re talking at the end of

February later you know seven eight months later and uh only now we’re starting to see some cracks like or two and years into it actually three years next month it’s two weeks from now it’s three years since the First Rate hike no it’s it’s two years since the r hike he

Braising in march22 sorry sorry but but he did start tightening liquidity globally in June of 2021 when he raised the reverse repo rate Five basis points above the FED funds rate and built $2 and a half trillion dollar slush fund for liquidity so you ask why it’s taken

This long is because the RP facility hasn’t been drained yet and that’s slashing money out of excess effectively excess reserves and into the money markets and so the money markets are still liquid so then the question is are we are we running out of real estate there and that’s been the big question

That Zero Hedge and you know and and many of my peers have been arguing for that March is this kind of Cliff where the RP facility is drained with the btfp the bank term funding program from pal put in place last year and and all of

That and so now what happens at that point is that when we’re going to finally see the liquidity crisis in the United States I’m arguing no I just think that you know we’re will have disgorged all of that there’s still plenty of liquidity slashing around the system um M2 has turned negative fine

The best feds balance sheet is um uh is is still shrinking and I think what the FED will do is you know they will slow down the rate of QT which sadly my alternative Financial Brethren are now called QE I don’t understand this like and I

Saw a note from Michael Evy the other day from on zerohedge Robo bank and he made the he made the slight ofand argument that when the FED is slowing down the rate of QT that now they’re pumping the gas and and holding the break by holding rates at five and a

Half percent at the same time and that doesn’t that’s not what the FED ever does I’m like that is not what the FED is doing the FED is not tightening and any farther on the credit side and slowing down the rate of tightening at the all they’re doing is tightening slower that’s not

Loosening like I I I you know this is these are nonsensical arguments by people who honestly want the FED to go back to the zero bound okay and this is part of the geopolitical side of this story the people who are most harmed by pal at 5

And a half% are not ventor capitalists in the United States States they’re not middle the middle class of the United States they’re not even the commercial the the the the the um Regional commercial banks in the United States the people who are harmed most by this are the globalists in Europe Asia

Southeast Asia South those are the people who are because they’re the ones that ran the financial system for 50 years when the Fed was low constantly lowering rates and pumping all this money out into the the the shadow banking system globally he’s collapsing the shadow banking system and everybody’s screaming and okay fine

They’re screaming they’re talking their book but I don’t care I’m an American and I’m I’m tired of the FED being the Central Bank of the world like clean up your own houses folks because we need to clean up our house and this is how we’re

Going to clean up our house and you can clean up your own houses and that doesn’t mean that I have to turn around and continue to subsidize the bank of England and the bank and the bundus bank and the bank of Japan and the bank of

Korea and the bank of Thailand and and and and and I don’t have to do this anymore um we don’t have the balance sheet room to do it anymore here in the United States it’s it’s you know it was fine when we had the balance sheet room we don’t

Anymore so this is how so at some point you know you have to say no that’s enough and Powell’s done that and he’s done it quite clearly and the sad and what everybody overseas is complaining about is the fact that the United States has still has more capital of available

To it to reorganize than they thought they did everybody was sold this this this idiotic idea that the United States doesn’t have any Capital left and that’s a narrative and gu and by the way that’s a narrative created by I will be honest with you British and European controll media for their

Purposes and our own media that like that our own alternative media that wants to be right about that wants to be right to validate their own bearish thesis and I’m like no you’re wrong on the order of operations you’re right on the final at the end of this yeah the

United States has headed for a real big crash if we don’t fix you know fix ourselves fiscally no argument but you know that’s 10 years off folks it’s not tomorrow but you know we’re still going to have a commercial real estate problem in this country but that’s fine we

You’re goingon to have a bigger real estate problem in your home country of Germany which everybody’s now starting to to to make noise about I’m like took you long enough I called this two and a half years ago because the minute I saw that Powell started ra tightening

Liquidity the first thing I said was this is going to impact disproportionately impact Europe and then when the sanctions packages went on and Europe decided to go along with the massive sanctions against Russia they gutted the international standing of the Euro and now the Euro does not flow around the

World the Euro had a chance to just Throne the dollar as the global Reserve currency and they chose to do so and um okay now it’s not my Pro now it’s not my problem because the reason they did what they the reason that Mario drogy and Christine lagard did what they did at

The ECB and what what’s been done is because they always thought that they would have control of the fed by having a globalist like Yellen or banki running the FED they’ve got Powell in charge of the FED never expected to get Sofer installed here in the United States and

Get us off of liore never expected any of this to happen that was never part of the plan that’s why they’re really angry with Donald Trump and actually they’re not really angry with Donald Trump they’re angry with Steve minuchin for handing Jerome Powell to Donald Trump

And Trump you know making him Fed chair and then putting John Williams in at the New York fed to implement Sofer and now that you know we have a domestic debt indexing rate that’s not dependent upon city of London the United States is now effectively for the first time ever in

The history of the United States have a B has a banking system that’s in independent of city of London mean this goes all the way back to the Revolutionary War you know the the post-revolutionary period where we were still so dependent upon trade with Britain that they effectively with Great Britain that they

Effectively control their monetary policy and you know and that just and it stayed that way all through the 1800s all through and then into the 1900s and then when we got their Central Bank model in 1913 you know the same this was all part of the plan and now I just I

Don’t I don’t I don’t think anybody foresaw the United States finally being able to declare independence for real and um that means of course that there the um I’m implying that the people who are behind this policy are also anti-imperial that they also want to destroy take down the American Empire as

Well okay now that’s being fought tooth and Claw by the political class okay that’s the macro picture if you want to understand what’s happening in the bond markets in the markets in the gold markets in all of these markets this is the fight this is the war that’s

Being fought and it’s being fought over the who going to control the Global Financial system after the crash Powell is setting things up to you know have the United States weather the crash I don’t see Christine lard doing that I see her doubling down on the stuff that that that didn’t work why

Because Christine lard is not a banker she’s never managed money she’s a lawyer and she’s a political appointee that’s been told to run the Gant chart of the project she’s a project manager is the best way to describe people like her and vland and the rest of them and you know

And to a lesser extent Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell and all the rest of them here in the United States and Janet Yellen they’re all just project managers and there’s a big project and it’s called you know globalism with it’s it’s called Minority Report with more Germans

It’s it’s it’s un run Global government with Central Bank digital currencies and and you know living in pods and all the rest of it that’s their project right and you know they just get up every day and they just you know operate they just you know look at what’s on the Gant

Chart and say okay well this is what we’re supposed to do today this is what we’re supposed to say and when you see something like someone like Bruno Bruno L mer come out uh the other day and lament like what is going on why haven’t we you know seized the $35 trillion

Worth of savings within you know Continental Europe to pay for climate change that was already supposed to be done by now why are we why have we not done this this is the classic example of an IQ 105 midwit that was designed that was put in power to run as a project

Manager and was wondering like where’s the leadership what happened here like you can see it everywhere with now once you like realize that that’s what’s going on you’re like oh that’s all they are and the better metaphor is that they’re the flying monkeys and the

Wicked Witch of the West is now dead so Kissinger’s dead you know Jacob Roth tile just died this morning um you know the the brzinsky is dead you know the the the guys who built the CB of Rome They’re All Dead like everybody put this system in place and put this agenda in

Place they’re all dead they were smart enough to build the agenda but they put lieutenants in place that are just smart enough to run the agenda but not understand how the agenda works and so therefore it’s like a big production line that’s missing critical parts and you can’t move the production

Line forward and what we’re seeing and you know the thing is lurching to a halt and what you’re seeing at this point is them complaining that they don’t have enough bolts to mount the doors on the truck that they’re trying to build or whatever whatever metaphor you want to

Use right and they don’t know what else to do so they get up in the morning and they keep doing what they’re supposed to do so they introduce laws and bills that you know aren’t are never going to be implemented they continue to try and you

Know ban gas stoves here in the United States or you know yeah all all of it right that they you know continue to push you know funding for Ukraine you know out the door because they need to push the liquidity into the German banking system to keep it from

Collapsing like this is these are their plans and they still think that they can force Powell and they try to imperizellis you know higher for longer stance and then the economic data keeps coming back slightly better than expected which gives Powell all the ammunition he needs to go you know what

Still too early to talk about cutting rates I’m I’m I’m now I’ve now got on my board about a coin flip for a rate hike in the second half of this year okay I came into the year saying yeah probably three rate hikes rate rate Cuts in the second half of the

Year one of my predictions for this year was I that I I was saying no recession officially in 2024 which I don’t think we’re going to get it’s too much money floating around Joseph Wang agrees with me um and you know and he’s he understands that the flow the interplay

Of flow far better than I do far better and like I made that prediction and I read his work I’m like oh cool somebody else agrees with me okay great and I can you know not that I’m trying to like appeal to Authority here or anything I

Just know that somebody who knows more of this than I do is saying the same things that I am I’m actually appealed not to my authority but to his right um and we have that that was my one base case and then the second base case was

That I never thought the pal was going to cut before the begin the Q3 if he did it all he would start to cut in the second half of the year as long as nothing broke as long as there was no crisis that he had to respond to he

Would just stay where he is and not make the mistakes of Arthur Burns and uh Paul vuler Burns raised slowly in the 1970s as opposed to raising fast he raised slowly held rates at a certain level then tried to cut then got bruted out of office vulker came came in because

Because Burns had cut vulker had to go to AA who went to like 12% and then thought he had everything under control then he cut by Four Points again and then that was the mistake which he lamented and then that’s what sent him to 20% or 19% or whatever right what

Powell has done has gone hard fast and is holding it flat he’s actually doing a mix of what vulker and burns did he’s doing what what vulker was forced to do in the end he did that up front and then he and then did now is doing what burns did

Except he understands both of their mistakes and I think he just wants to hold rates of five and a half percent and let everybody squirm and he might have to raise to 5.75% to prove to the markets that he’s serious that he’s not going to give them back their cookie

That would be the only reason why he put a rate hike on the table but I think so again this gets complicated I know I’m hogging the mic I know you got a lot of questions you want to ask me but I understand that it this is about

The politics of it’s going to tell us what we know about the politics going on behind the scenes on Capitol Hill what I mean by that is the following if Powell doesn’t cut in June or July right we come into you know Jackson Hole and he hasn’t cut yet and

Everybody’s screaming at it I again I’m not saying I have a high probability of this but let’s say it’s a coin flip that he doesn’t cut at all until the um September meeting right he still has the opportunity to cut three times at September October and December or Halloween and December

Right but the election is you know six weeks away and he’s and if he cuts in September what is he setting up he’s setting up the lag effect that the uh Improvement in the economy is going to happen right as Trump takes office if Trump wins and Trump is even allowed to

Take office and be inaugurated again what I would say is the following if Powell doesn’t cut until September that tells me that the faction that’s trying to keep Trump out of jail and there’s a faction in American politics trying to work to keep Trump out of jail by putting pressure on Biden

And Obama and Clinton and all the rest of them and Soros and all the rest of them um then when I’m saying is they’re going to hold off cutting in order to ensure that the economy is in the worst State imaginable at at the time of the

Election in order to push Trump into power and then the FED can cut and then the lag effect of cutting of of loosening monetary policy would allow Trump to ride herd over the recovery and Donald Trump is not smart enough to see this because he’s out on the campaign Trail complaining about

Powell but I expect that if he does actually get elected I was talking with um with big podcast last night about this very thing here’s a conversation that is probably going to happen and it’ll probably be between Trump and Jamie Diamond and John Solomon and a few other people look you freaking

We’re setting you up for success but we have to do this to get rid of these people and we’re setting you up for the opportunity to roll them all and put them in jail or do whatever you need to do we’re helping you but we have to go through the pain

First and we’re setting you up to be Ronald the second coming really second coming of Ronald Reagan and hopefully someone has told Trump this but I don’t he I I honestly think that Trump is just so vindictive and so and such a freaking malignant narcissist that he’s just angry with

Powell because he thought Powell was trying to sabotage him his re-election Camp process in 2020 by raising rates I’m like dude you were never going to win the election they were always going to steal it from you they manufactured what 25 I I think they manufactured 20

Million votes like I I think they literally manufactured that many votes there’s no way that Joe Biden got more than 60 M million votes not when Trump got 75 no way so all right Tom let let me jump in here I love listening I have to ad like you could

Have you could have gone on like but I wrote down quite a few questions I think I want to dissect your answer a little bit as well um I want I want to start with the liquidity crisis that you mentioned that that that is just around the corner literally potentially four

Weeks away um you mentioned the bank term funding program the repo facilities all running out um I wanted to se that a little bit and maybe dive a little deeper on that because because what could replace that right we’re already seeing issues with Bond and treasury yield issuance like that the FED already

Has to pick up the tail here um so I’m curious what that will look like come April 1st perhaps well here’s the thing Janet Yellen knew exactly what she was doing last year when she issued 83% of all the treasures she she issued with less than one year because she was

Trying to F this crisis Janny Ellen is a globalist and a Trader okay so now stop thinking in terms of the fact that she’s a responsible anything she’s not she’s a lieutenant she’s running a part she’s a project manager running her part of the Gant chart her job undermine Jerome

Powell how do you do that well you issue all the debt in 2022 to cover the budget deficit in one and in less than one year with with less than a Year’s worth of duration so that it all starts hit right at the same time that all the other

Programs that P put in place hit and and and and and so she knew exactly what she was doing by trying to force a drain of the reverse repo facility at the same time that the bank term funding program would now I’m not a huge I don’t think

The bank term funding program is that big a deal to be honest if it was its balance would be $22 trillion it’s not it’s it balance is $140 billion it’s it’s a rounding error on the fed’s balance sheet so the feds has said they’re not going to replace it you know they’re not

Going to extend it and they’ve also said look we’re going to take away the stigma of using the discount window we want every Bank to go to the discount window at least once a year going forward we want you to use the discount window period we created the bank term funding

Program in order for you to pay an extra 15 or 20 basis points or whatever in order to get around the stigma of buying of going to the discount window to get temporary liquidity reality is is that there’s going to be a credit crunch folks we

Know it you know it your balance sheets aren’t in great shape and we’re here for you you have to realize that this is where this is where we are and this nothing is going to change and the fed put is not coming back so with that in mind now you have to

Think about you know how do we how do we navigate this well we’ve had a year with the commercial Banks being the and certainly the regional Banks being able to show up their balance sheets somewhat I personally have seen this a little bit now I live in a area of the country

That’s doing very well right because money is flowing into this part of the of the the the world I live in Florida is is pouring in the Florida at an unbelievable rate um and certainly my area of North Florida is it’s it’s it’s moving in very

Very quickly so okay take that with a grain of salt but like I went to my local credit union the other day last summer they were offering the seven month CD special at 4.9% mind you fed was already at 5 and a half percent six-month treasuries were already yielding

5.4% and they were saying well we can give you 50 basis points Less on a 7even month C today I just bought one at 5.2% so but and treasury yields haven’t moved so now they don’t need to you know get 50 basis points or 60 basis points

On that trade they only need to get 20 and I noticed when I looked up on the board while I was at the bank H savings rates on money market funds and everything else have crept up a bit they’re off the bottom they’re off the 0.15 you know I don’t have to put

$100,000 into the in my savings account or my my interest bearing checking account to get half a percent I can get 1% now it still sucks but it’s better what it’s telling me is that the bank’s balance sheets are improving as you know as the as their

Duration um portfol as the port the duration portfolio of their assets has shifted and they’re they’re doing what needs to be done like so there’s still massive problems there’s a their commercial real estate is is a mess but again there’s buyers for that commercial real estate at 50% off or 60%

Off because now all of a sudden you know that’s a profitable loan at 50 or 60% occupancy as opposed to needing 100% occupancy now all of a sudden you know an insurance company or de or you know a pension fund can go out and buy these um

Buy these properties up and you know make them into viable concerns the way their rents will be lower which is a win-win for the small businesses and and and and and and so this is the reorganization of capital that’s happening in the United States that no one wants that nobody wants to

Talk about because they just want to keep financializing everything when the reality is that we’re trying to Def financialized things and get things back to rational levels of of Leverage and you know and and build real risk profiles which is what interest rates are supposed to reflect in the first

Damn place and everybody’s screaming about it like why this is exactly what you should want it’s a return to just to jump in there it’s like the normal right like yeah when we talk about the normal is that’s exactly what it should be like like zero interest rates is not normal

I’m Sorry by any standard K it’s really simple Banks should be back to you know doing net interest margin the most important metric On A bank’s quar report should be net interest margin because that’s what their business is built on and guess what they haven’t been able to make

Money in net interest margin for two decades and we have too many people who grew up in these abnormal times who have no frame of reference I I used to say that look um up until 2022 there wasn’t a guy under the age of 70 in the United States whoever traded a

Bare Market in bonds us bonds why because the last one ended in 1983 and if they were 18 if they were 21 you know getting their first job at I don’t know Edward Jones selling bonds like that’s 40 years down the line these guys are in their 60s now they’ve never ever

Had to trade a or advise people in a in a high in a true Rising interest rate environment where the fed put wasn’t in place we’ve got an entire generation of investors who’ve never UND who’ve never operated with under tight credit credit conditions now why so my daughter’s generation my

Daughter’s going to turn 18 in the fall in two months they’re the ones who are going to have to they’re going to be entering the workforce and entering the world under tight credit creation where they’re not going to be living on their credit cards because their credit cards are only 133% or only

14% if you got crappy credit you can get a 14% credit card like now even guys with good credit are being offered 22% credit cards right I’m 56 years old I mean by definition I get S my my my my score starts at 700 just because I’m 56 years

Old I have a job right um so like and they’re offering me 21 22% what do they what are they what are they goingon to offer my daughter 35 like what are you kidding me like who’s going to borrow money at 35% like are you you know so they’re

They’re all I thought it was illegal to be what’s that I thought loone sharking was illegal so 35% does sound like that that’s ridiculous well I mean but you understand what I maybe the limit in the is of course you’re trying to make a point here but I think it’s like it

Sounds like we’re going back to the 70s where everything is a bit more rational even late 60s um people are a bit more rational where you have to make actually smart financial decisions and can’t just own 50 Airbnb Apartments uh on a 3% margin right well and I think the Airbnb

The Airbnb Revolution is part is part of this commercial real estate story and um I was surprised when I heard that a lot of German banks have exposure to us commercial real estate but then again when you really stop to think about it again how many years were was you know

The bundis bank forced at the neg into the negative to the negative bound so in order for German Pension funds and for German insurance companies and reinsurance companies to go and get 8% in the market they had to go into the Leverage you know leverage commercial

Real estate CDO market and try and grab eight% and so if those things go then they’re B I mean so the whole thing is it’s it’s all a house of cards built on funny money but that’s not to say that it’s you know we’ve got Mad Max on the

Horizon we don’t okay only if they choose to go the route of taking everything away from us and they can do that if they want to and that’s kind of what they’re AR arguing at this point they’re they’re effectively saying look if you if you people don’t get with the with

The program we’re GNA start World War II and send you off the war and kill your sons and daughters that’s what they’re saying and you know it’s it’s just pure blackmail and you just have to look at them and go you can try more on love it I mean you can try

That’s nice like but I don’t think it’s GNA happen you know um I got I got a follow-up question to that actually because I want to talk about the FED here real quick as Tom as well Tom because you made a couple points about the fed and I think it’s a three-part

Question but I think we can all like the answer is all comingled I think we can all throw that into one uh one one I’d love to for you to explain how the FED sort of funded foreign central banks or help support them but as as a followup

On that like how much longer can we afford uh the current rate um the current rates at given the deficit that we’re at and uh also as a consequence of a potential pivot for a lack of better term uh and a rate cut what what is that signal like

You mentioned EU versus us at one point so maybe we can throw that in there as well so I’m curious like I I feel like this is all one big answer and I figured I’d asked those questions so um so the it’s remember it’s not necessarily just

The FED it’s the fed and the treasury working together the the treasury run the the the the government runs a budget deficit the treasury sends the the the uh um the treasury is is allowed because the FED sets the FED funds rate at zero that that that that then allows the

Treasury to issue debt at stupidly low rates they go overseas they get stuffed those treasuries and those deposits get stuffed in foreign bank accounts and then those foreign bank accounts those balances are then used to be the ones that issue the loans and it doesn’t go through the commercial banking system it

Goes through private Banks it goes through private accounts so you know there’s there’s George Soros making $5 billion investment you know um investment loans just just to follow up Japan right now what’s that the other way around is that with Japan the other way around now in a sense like what so

The Japan is like raising no javant is raising rates just going to do it slowly they’re backing away from QE and they’re backing away from the the the bank of Japan put and everything else but um and Japan is another interesting story and I don’t think we

Have time even have close to have time we’re already over time so um because you know there’s so much to talk about and there’s so many ways to answer these questions so that was the that was the the the big leverage that was the big leverage pump gearing pump that happened

During the zerp years zerp and QE years now we’re on the flip side of that what leverage giveth on the way up takes away twice as fast on the way down and we have a and so we’re that’s why they’re screaming because they’re all because you know at a certain point all

Of that Leverage is going to collapse and is collapsing and so how much time do we have left before it starts to really collapse well the bigger question is who’s going to collapse first and what I’ve argued and I think I’ve argued persuasively in my own elliptical way

That the United States is better prepared from a Capital adequacy perspective from a reserves perspective or from a liquidity perspective than Europe is that’s it and that Europe’s going to break first and that’s why lagard was and that’s why the markets were desperately trying to force the PO to

Pivot by pricing at seven rate high rate cuts for 2024 back in December and blah blah BL and all this stuff it was all blackmail it was all blackmail it’s the way I’ve put it and you have to look at it from that perspective it was a push

They tried and Powell resisted and then the CPI number came in slightly better than it was high worse than it was supposed to then the employment reports came in slightly better than they were supposed to and then all of a sudden the markets were like we were Park price for

Perfection fed’s not going to cut seven times in 2024 they’re G to cut maybe three times and I was literally banging my shoe on the table like Cru Chef saying these markets are the bond markets are mispriced the bond markets can be wrong they can be wrong if there

Are State actors moving the price of bonds in the wrong direction so we had clear clear evidence of ECB and Bank of England intervention into the global US Treasury Market to push the long end of the yield curve down in Q4 of last year and it’s in the TIC report and I’ve

Talked about it a dozen times and you know it’s it’s right there like the Euro Zone has been buying treasuries at faster then China can sell them and Japan can sell them and China and Japan have been the main sources of Treasury selling from foreign central banks over

The last couple of years Japanese to defend the Yen effectively and the Chinese you know to lower their geopolitical risk of the United States you know cancelling the Q-tips because that’s also on the table that’s what these people want to do like they want to like start a war so that they can

Martin Armstrong’s talked about this like and Marty’s right like you can see what these people want to do they would love to to Virtue signal after getting us into a war and then they could virtue signal well we’re going to cancel all your treasury debt that you still have so why the Russians

Divested themselves of all of their us treasuries they’re like they knew exactly what was coming they were G to be vated into a war with Ukraine and you know not only were they were the foreign exchange reserves going to get seized which they’ve turned to their advantage by the way

But or not seized but Frozen they haven’t been seized yet Frozen which sent shock waves through the Global Financial system but they had also divested themselves completely of us treasuries so that those bonds couldn’t be cancelled because while we’re at war with Russia so we’re g to cancel our

Debt which by the way would be the worst thing the United States could ever do to for its own purposes because it’s what’s our superow yeah exactly what’s our superpower that we’ve never ever ever defaulted on our debt we’ve always paid our bills and so when you start thinking

When you start mapping who runs the United States and why they’re acting the way they are they are all acting in such a way as to force that moment on Force A Moment Like This onto the us where we break the fundamental Covenant of the Global Financial system which is that

Foreign exchange reserves are safe they can’t be seized and that the bond markets are govern the the the US Treasury Market is um inv violent you will be paid you know and and and all I’m seeing now is a full court press to try and get to that moment where the

United States is is goated by morons mostly Republicans in in the Senate to do this and you know let me give you a perfect example of what I’m talking about and then well that should answer this should finish answering this question how much time do we have because that’s the

Bigger risk than you know a couple of buildings in New York going south going south in valuation okay that can be absorbed that can be dealt with but how about the United States which holds about $40 billion doar worth of Russia’s um Frozen foreign exchange assets by the

Way Europe controls 210 billion and the the Brits control another 40 billion and the other 10 are just kind of floating around amongst everybody else that’s the layout the United States get gets angry with Russia over I don’t know Alexi naali which they didn’t they were smart somebody finally talked Biden or Obama

Or whomever off the the freaking cliff on this one again the fact that we haven’t done it yet is kind of inferential EV or circumstantial evidence that grown-ups are at the table still guiding policy because they desperately want to get the United States to do this 40 billion

Dollars and then we’ll give it to Ukraine sounds like a great idea right except the fact that now the trillions of dollars in trade that the United States settled the United States dollar settles and the United States does so do you think if you were um I don’t know a Colombian coffee seller

That any money that you that you made and trade with the United States for selling coffee to Starbucks do you think you’re going to hold that in an American Bank just saying are you going to you’re going to hold that in an American bank or are you going to immediately convert

That back into your local currency and send it home why would you send it in the United States why would you hold it in the United States where it can be seized like that because you know they did it to Russia why wouldn’t they do it to

You tens of trillions of dollars of future business rest on this $40 billion pin this is the kind of thing that everybody needs to be absolutely afraid of and you see this stuff com and then you look at whose mouths these ideas are coming out of and then you go oh it’s

You guys again they have British accents by the way I’ll just leave it there so yeah like it’s just ridiculous inter that’s the short end of the answer that’s the thing that we’re most I’m most worried about is how do we I have one last

Question to that and then now I want to put like a bow around that the whole policy fed policy as well but you you mentioned the word blackmail and for blackmail you need leverage so the question is what type of Leverage do they have over Powell to to pressure him

Into that like having an opinion on the market the market being you know seven saying seven rate Cuts or taking three turning them into seven is one thing but but you use the word blackma I’m just curious like what Leverage is the market have over Paul is besides you know hopes

And dreams of course and Wishful Thinking um that Leverage is clearly not nearly as powerful as they think it is um and again it will be a commercial real estate bus here in the United States that would then like will they create a false effectively a financial

False flag event that will force up God that’s a lot of alliteration Force Capital into uh Capital into moving and then free first moving and then freezing right and then that would force Po’s hand like they did this with co co was I am firmly convinced at this point that

Co was a means by which to Blackmail pal to go back to the zero bound okay I I that is my take on Co on all of Co and then there are other all the other things that they got to move things down the Gant chart of the

Project management you know Gant chart sure but the big one was they had to get the United States off of raising rates because there was an insant financial crisis brewing in the European markets then then so we had to create a moment where the B where the US Treasury Market

Went a liquid so the goal now is to get the US Treasury Market to go be a liquid just like they did in March 2020 okay the inciting incident for that story back then was Putin saying no to um production cuts which have the price of oil from Friday to Monday which was

An insane movement okay and an insane thing that that should never have even been witnessed in the history of humanity it was an operation it was a purely pure operation they set up the structure of the Brent crude Market on ice for a for that and

Then they pulled all their bids and the market opened at $40 on Monday and that seized everything up because now everybody’s collateral was now half price so they’ve been trying desperately to push the price of oil down to destroy the collateral undermining you know that underg guards the entire Financial

System and they can’t do it because the Saudi won’t let it happen the Russians won’t let it happen they are hip to this game they saw this movie once before they didn’t like it then and they’re not and they’re in a position so Powells doesn’t isn’t a man on an island by

Himself fighting this this thing he’s got allies or he’s got fellow Travelers I’m not saying that like and don’t get me wrong I’m not like saying in any way matter shape or form that Putin and Powell are are are in cahoots here they’re not but they but I always note

That whenever Powell does something Putin does something in response to that that’s supportive with oil prices because he understands why oil prices are so important and that’s and look the geopolitical tensions are are are what they are the supply and demand mismatch in oil is still real

Um and um the global economy is in better shape than people think it is and capital is reorganizing itself and money is flowing through the oil markets that don’t you know that are priced in dollars but settled in other currencies right and so that’s that’s a perfectly fine you know arrangement for

The US dollar long term the quote unquote Petro dollar long term but you know the the I think that the you know I just think that we this this idea of you know $6 Barrel oil is insane it’s oil’s going to 100 I don’t know that it’s

Going to 150 200 again World War III you know Six Sigma events false Flags I’m just talking about structurally I think that broek when you add Brazil into it that broek plus is now capable of pushing oil prices back to $100 a barrel and there’s not much more that the

United States can do to to Goose production and um because we don’t have the storage and infrastructure capability to move that oil and that gas you know and the liquified the LNG and the products and whatnot to Market I just we’re at capacity and that’s why that’s why that’s why natural gas

Domestic natural gas prices are sub $2 right now because we don’t have the transmission we haven’t even refilled the spr from what I know so I’m not an oil expert haven’t done that yet right right okay so I haven’t heard about that um they you C taking they started taking

Tenders on it but they still like they still like ah it’s too high a price like oh yeah yeah nobody ever signed I think it was $85 or something said nah we don’t want to I think I’m not an expert on that but but now the Biden Biden

Rejected in February of last year Biden rejected $71 71 dollar Barrel tenders yeah like it’s an operation folks it’s just part of the policy like you know they could refill it tomorrow oh it’s too expensive no it’s not they wanted to buy it back at 40 their whole

Plan was to buy it back at 40 and bankrupt Russia and everything else and then create the a crisis in the in in the the bond markets and you could see it coming a mile away and like I I I mean once you see these people for what

They are um you can see this stuff coming a mile away uh you know when you when you dig into their backgrounds and their histories while I’m thinking specifically like Soros at this point Soros is an MI6 agent he he’s always been a British British intelligence asset he was CED with with undermining

Margaret Margaret Thatcher and the pound in order to get them into the European union he was successful then not one of his color revolutions other than Armenia since then has worked the one that he’s been been fermenting in the United States that one’s still up for graph what’s what’s happening in the

United States right now is classic color color Revolution operation and being run out of we’ll have to table that discussion for next time being run out of by the way we’ll have to talk about that closer to the elections Tom because the last topic I want to talk about real quick is

The fir the first G of your publication is gold obviously real quick I mentioned it to you before we hit the record button I’m positively surprised how well it is holding up yeah right um I’m really happy of course where that we’re above $2,000 um doesn’t change much in the

Underlying sentiment of course but we’re trading at 2030 or so as we speak and that’s exceptional like given that we’re in the Melt up phase of the the main markets uh we’re touching or recording new record highs in the S&P 500 every every day pretty much right now and and

Gold is still trading above that really important level so hey what what is holding up the gold price you already answered my second part of the question how happy are you with the gold price and and where do you see things headed like is it really going to explode

Higher are we going to stay like higher for longer meaning at the same level right um well here yeah here’s the thing um political unrest leads to an undermining of confidence in Sovereign Bond markets so Rising rates are we can look at the oh rates are rising so that

Competes with gold well that’s one way of looking at it another way of looking at it is that the other way of looking at it is is that central banks have to offer better rates on their debt in order to pull people away from gold well what happens

When they’re not raising rates fast enough right gold can still rise you know in that environment um well then but then it’s it it’s an anthropo to the dollar and if the Dollar’s going up the gold should be going down why gold and the dollar can go up together the dollar get stronger

And gold can get stronger because the dollar Index is is a measure of the dollar versus all other currencies or at least the big basket of currencies the pound the Yen the mostly the pound the Yen and the Euro right a little bit in the Mexican peso um the Swiss frank

So gold can be outperforming all five of those currencies and the dollar can be outperforming those five Curr those five currencies as well there’s no reason why they can’t do so at the same time if money is going to ground if money is worried about where you know about our

The the future then money goes to ground and then either go and it goes to Safe Haven assets and in this environment I got five Safe Haven assets I got gold I got Bitcoin I got us treasuries I got us Blue Chip equities and I’ve got um

US Gold Bitcoin us equities us us bonds and what else oil you know tangible assets and in in general and then tangible assets so we can have all those things rising at the same time right um if it’s a flight to Quality General flight the quality High

Yielding it’s it’s the last category is really high yielding assets so when you look at you know oil Majors trading a pte of four pull throwing off between six and 16% depending on where they are in the in the world you know when you see shipping companies throwing off you know

Ridiculous cash flow at five at five times uh uh at five times earnings and with you know debt to evitar ratios of two and 9% yields and you know you go look at Fernley and you see the the see the day rates across the board going up

And new builds going down because no one’s got any because no one’s got any investable cap because we’re at the the bottom of the cback cycle for new bills and shipping guess what shipping companies are a great idea that these are tangible assets these are tangible businesses because money flows

When money flows goes to ground money flows down exter’s pyramid right it flows away from credit based assets towards base money towards the base economy towards food production energy production base Metals production blah blah blah blah blah but it take but there’s always a lag effect with commodity prices themselves so base

Metals prices are still down you know I mean that’s so we’re in that you know because commodity prices are always kind of out of phase with what’s going on in the monetary cycle it’s just the way they are pain in the ass to be honest with you pardon my French so um yeah

Like this is what’s happening so I love all the I’ve been saying this for a while now it’s like I love all the the the safe haven trades in this respect um there’s going to be you know there’s good money to be made in certain areas

Of the market um and and there’s going to be good shorting opportunities as well um in certain markets and I hate to say it but German banks are one of them so you know what what are you g do it’s a bit fragile our exposure to to certain

Acids is is a little frightening to be honest so um Tom we we have to wrap it up here for the conversation has been fantastic and uh we still haven’t gotten to all the topics I had prepared but uh we need to put a bow around this

Conversation never but we covered a lot of ground there’s really like a lot of dense information in there as well so really appreciate your time Tom where can we find more of work where can we follow you Tom you can follow me on my blog over Tom leango domme or gold Goen

Guns.com you can get either way and spelled with an N not an an um I think we own that one as well so it doesn’t really matter um and you follow me on Twitter at tfl 1728 where I do try to make sure that the worst version of me

Um shows up every day because by God it’s more fun than than anything else and of course you can uh support the work on a regular basis where I take care of my patrons two to three times a week minimum uh at patreon Gold goats

And guns you can sign up for just the private blogs and the private uh podcasts Andor you can sign up for the newsletter as well um where we have the full portfolio strategy to try and make sense of all this along with and it’s all original material like 90 like 70%

Of the original material I I produce now is is from my patrons um because that’s they’re the ones who pay the bills so and they’re great and they’re wonderful and my community is a a whole you know it’s it’s a hive mind of incredibly um engaged people and we have a private

Discussion server that we that we gate ideas on and I can tell you flat out that you know at least 25 to 30% of what comes out of my mouth comes from came out of their mouths first and having a community that engaged and that um uh

That uh um passionate about the uh about trying to make things better and trying to figure out what’s actually going on is is an un invaluable resource it’s just an invaluable resource so I don’t have a staff I have I have a I have a I have a crowdfunded research department

And they are awesome fantastic Tom really really appreciate your time everybody else thank you so much for tuning in I hope you enjoyed to this discussion as much as I have make sure to follow Tom um we’ll put the links down below as well of course to his Twitter his Twitter or

X feed and his website of course as well and let us know your thoughts leave a leave a like that gives us a really good indication whether you lik the the conversation we had here did we ask the right questions did we get to the heart

Of the matter and should we invite Tom back let us know down below i’ love to hear from you of course as well where do you think where do you see things headed uh I had some really different views on lately as well had Bill Holter on

Recently as well but also Michael Avery so we we try to look at all the ends of the of of the spectrum it’s really really insightful because in the end we provide you with information so you can make up your own mind of course that’s the whole thing uh education and

Information is is is key here so really appreciate you tuning in I hope this was insightful we’ll be back with lots more this week we’ve got a fantastic lineup so see you soon thank you so much