Join The Bulwark for an evening of politics and laughs among friends. Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, and Jonathan V. Last, founders of The Bulwark and hosts of “The Next Level” podcast, bring their signature style of banter to the stage for an evening of sharp political insights, lots of laughs . . . and maybe even a few tears.
With the U.S. electorate hurtling toward a rematch of Biden v. Trump, the gang will react to the Iowa caucuses and the state of the GOP race, Biden’s State of the Union, the latest polling and other pressing events of the day.
At An Evening with The Bulwark you can expect a fun night with a community built on good faith where we tell you what we really think.
Doors open at 6 p.m. and the show starts at 7 p.m. Plan to stick around after the show to meet fellow attendees and the gang from The Bulwark.
About the Speakers
Tim Miller is The Bulwark’s writer-at-large, an MSNBC political analyst and the author of the New York Times best seller Why We Did It: A Travelogue from the Republican Road to Hell. He was previously political director for Republican Voters Against Trump and communications director for Jeb Bush 2016.
Sarah Longwell is the publisher of The Bulwark and host of “The Focus Group” podcast. She is president and CEO of Longwell Partners in Washington, D.C., and co-founder with Bill Kristol of the organizations Defending Democracy Together and the Republican Accountability Project. A long-time Republican strategist and former national board chair of the Log Cabin Republicans, her recent DDT projects are Republican Voters Against Trump and Republicans for the Rule of Law.
Jonathan V. Last is the editor of The Bulwark, where he writes the daily “Triad” newsletters. He hosts “The Secret Podcast” with Sarah and “The Next Level” podcast. He is the author of What to Expect When No One Is Expecting and the editor of The Dadly Virtues: Adventures from the Worst Job You’ll Ever Love.
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Keep it. I’m glad that you wore the same outfit as me tonight. Yeah, well. Now to. To tease. So. Hello, everybody. I’m JBL, and I’m here with my best friend, Sarah Longwell and San Francisco’s own Tim Miller. Why don’t you give him a big wind up? Okay. Okay. Down. Oakland? Yeah.
It’s sort of like how JBL lives in New York. You know, there’s actually. So Donald Trump has some very strange lesions on his hands. Do not like them. Bad energy. Many people are saying it could be leprosy or worse, possibly syphilis. So you’ve learned your lesson, then, about. The question marks.
One question marks on them, because allegedly, allegedly, he did say that avoiding venereal disease had been his Vietnam. Yeah, remember that? So maybe it finally caught up with him. Did you have any. I have 130 seconds. Well, just for people who aren’t in the bulwark slack, it’s really it’s really spicy there.
I have to say that Mona Charen won the thing because I put the picture of the leprosy and because I was on this, as soon as that picture hit the wire, I was like sending out a mass text about Donald Trump’s leprosy.
And I sent the text and she was like, I don’t I don’t know about the lesions, but the color of his hands, the shade of his arms is so different than the shade of it. His hands are also small. They’re tiny and hail Carney hands. I don’t know.
He didn’t look good in Iowa either. He didn’t look up like when he. Was walking around with his coat and he looked like he was a drunk coming out of the tank for the night. Yeah, it’s not looking good. So maybe have a Donald Trump health event.
I’ve been really worried about a Joe Biden health event, but maybe we could get a Donald Trump. And I know that And you. Literally just articulated Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley strategies. I’m praying, baby. And I wish my mother do rosaries for evil, but she only does them for good. All right.
So let’s talk about some politics. New Hampshire, the the snows of New Hampshire are folding on the Granite State as the good folks of the Northeast go to the polls to weigh the New Hampshire’s happening. I care slightly more than I did about Iowa, but only slightly.
I guess I have I have a couple of questions. The first is, which set of polling do you believe? Because we we are essentially getting two different varieties of polls coming out of New Hampshire. One variety says that Nikki Haley’s just once this close, like 44 or 40 or 40, 38.
And the others say Trump’s up by 15. Which ones do you guys believe? I believe the Trump South 50 runs. I just I don’t know how you can believe anything else based on the Iowa numbers. You know, I mean, again, I guess the the theory of the case for Nikki,
The Nikki close polls is based entirely on the theory that there are going to be so many undeclared, you know, MSNBC viewing, you know, New Englanders who feel inspired to go out to vote because it’s their civic duty. They watch the Commonwealth Club livestream on YouTube and she’s the least bad option.
And so they’re going to hold their nose and do it like that. Like the close polls are entirely based on that. And it’s just like I just find it hard to I think that there’ll be some of those people. But Nikki Haley is offering them nothing. She’s doing nothing to galvanize that group.
And if you look back at 2016, you know, John Kasich was really offering those folks something. And he got like 17%. Then if you add in Jeb, we had an exclamation point, ten and a half. That’s 27 and a half.
And then if you add in Christie, he had like eight or seven and that’s 35. And like all of those candidates were actually offering these undeclared voters something because they were aligned politically. Nikki is not you know, they don’t even really like her. And so, like.
You know, what he knows is going to. Get above 40 is hard to believe for me. He knows this because he did the focus group podcast this week and we did New Hampshire. And he listened to a bunch of Biden voters
Who were going to pull a Republican ballot to go in and vote against Trump. The problem was we did the focus group before Christie dropped out and they were all Christie people. And so we texted them all after he dropped out. And we’re like, So what are you going to do now?
And some people were like, Forget it. And others were like, I guess I’ll vote for Nikki. And, you know, if it’s this is what happened to her in Iowa, it gets cold. And the people who are like, I guess I’ll vote for Nikki are like, it’s 40 below.
I’m not going out there and like, I don’t know that it’s going to be terrible in New Hampshire, but it’s just the enthusiasm is not there for her. And the number one thing that they say, and Nikki gets this from both sides, which is they just say they just don’t trust her. Right.
So the why couldn’t people trust Namrata? That doesn’t make any sense. That they don’t trust her on the Dem side because she does things like not say she won’t be Trump’s V.P. and she’s all over the place on abortion. She doesn’t know who started the Civil War or what it was about.
So they don’t trust her. And then on the other hand, the Trump people don’t trust her because she’s an establishment rhino from the old days. Side question When people agree to be in your focus groups, do they also understand that
You’re then going to be just texting them personally at all hours of the day that like whenever whenever you have a question about what the people think, you’re going to be on your phone texting Jeanne. Jeanne from Oklahoma City. Sarah, again. How do you think I personally text these people?
I wouldn’t put it past you. I have a problem. Yeah, I do have a problem. I love the people. Can we throw out one of the points about these people that we’re all just kind of we’re all just analyzing them right now and like, we’re analyzing the whims of,
You know, a handful of, like, flinty, moderate, you know, Portsmouth, you know, citizens to determine whether or not they’re going to hold their nose and vote for somebody they hate or not. It’s like it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter. And then what? Like, that’s the whole thing about this, right?
Like Nikki Haley wins New Hampshire. Let’s say that the let’s say that all these people are Sarah Longwell. They’re just like, gosh, okay, I don’t like Donald Trump so much. And I’m EARNEST and Nikki Haley isn’t going to end democracy.
So I will vote for and then she wins based on those people’s votes. Okay. There are no more of those people left the rest of the time. Right. Like, there’s no those people don’t exist in South Carolina. You come down to Louisiana, let me tell you. Those people are Democrats. All right?
The Louisiana primary is going to be 92 to 4. And she’s going to she’s gonna finish behind Vivek right in there. No Nikki Haley. So so there’s there was a there was a national poll that came out today that had her at 13.
Like, there’s nothing so and so the theory of the case of the like the Bill Kristol God love you. I love you, Bill. It’s just like, okay, well, she ekes out a victory based on undeclared people and then magic fairy dust.
And. All of the Republicans that don’t like her or change their mind like. So it’s all it’s academic, it’s pointless. Some of the problems. So and again, we love Bill but like part of the problem with this analysis is that people get used to seeing this happen
In Democratic races or it’s happened previously in Republican races. So they have this old mindset of like, well, look what the Democrats did. Joe Biden, nobody thought he was going anywhere. Then he went to South Carolina. He won hold. Democrat. I did. yeah, you’re always right. I wrote this.
Piece 100 times all through 2020. Joe Biden is going to be the nominee. Yeah. Good man. Great job. Thank you. Just going to be seen. I don’t even know what I was talking about. All of these people to the right. That’s right. That’s right. That’s right.
Then everybody moves like that’s just the Republicans are off there. They’re on their own planet. That is not going to happen. Also, what everybody is going to drop out. Ron DeSantis drops out and this is always been sort of the floor
In this case is like it becomes a one on one race with Nikki Trump gets to is 20 points like Trump. By. More. Yeah that’s that’s the only thing that happens with consolidation. So yeah it was never going to happen.
I did want her to win in New Hampshire because good things should happen sometimes. I don’t know. Same great. But I don’t think it’s going to happen either. Okay. Do we talk about New Hampshire enough? No. Well, I mean, the DeSantis campaign is saying that once once
Nikki loses in New Hampshire, that will then clear the field for him to have his one on one race with Trump as well. And I think that’s amazing. And we’ll come back to that. We’ll circle back to Nikki in a minute. I feel bad because it is bad for America. What’s happening,
On the other hand, if you live long enough, you get to see bad things happen to bad people. There is nothing better than watching this run. DeSantis thing unspool. Does he make it out of New Hampshire? I mean, I honestly so I think that if he’s not going to be in New Hampshire,
But when he finishes with six in New Hampshire. Votes or percent. So I had thought that if he had lost to Nikki in Iowa, then he would have been out yesterday. But because he finished second, he sort of has to stick around next Wednesday.
Is that a good day for him to get out, do we think, or next Thursday? Are we are you sure he doesn’t drop out before here? Yeah, I can’t. I’m it’s hard for me to get into his head. I was with you and I was asked about this, and.
And I was pretty sure I was right. I felt like it was a Jon Huntsman situation. I lived through this. We finished a gentleman’s third in New Hampshire. It was just close enough to make a couple of donors call him up and be like, keep it going. You never. Know.
You went from you went from fifth to third. Maybe next time will be second. So we flew down to South Carolina. We had an event. Nobody showed up. Jon Huntsman got sad. He went back to his hotel room. He talked to his wife and he Texas.
And he was like, guys, I think I think I’m ready to read the concession speech now. Right. And so, like, he dropped out like three days after New Hampshire reality set. And I kind of thought that was
What’s going to happen for tiny D, But he seems to be riding and riding it out. So it’s hard for me to I know that we’re supposed to be former Republican insiders who have who have insight into the brains of Republicans. But I can’t get inside Ron DeSantis brain right now.
I have no idea what he’s. How do you write out single digits? Do you have money? Does he? So this is the other thing. The fund that we had a story for NBC News where a source inside the meeting of the DeSantis fundraising committee was assuring people that they could probably
Raise the resources to stay in through South Carolina. This is like an NFL owner telling the head coach that he has full confidence in, you know. Like, this. Is where we are finding it. Guys are saying we believe that we can raise the money to stay in the race. Three weeks from now.
You don’t have the money to stay in the race three weeks from now. Is this the is DeSantis the worst part? No, we haven’t out there yet. Then I have to say, you might have a serial. Well, I’m just trying to figure out where to deploy my material on this. And here.
Do it here. We’ll do it live. Okay, great. Here’s the thing about the Santas. He somehow manages to be both the worst candidate, but also have the worst strategy. And so the strategy for him, right, was there’s always Trumpers. There’s maybe Trumpers and there’s move on from Trumpers at the end of 2022.
In the beginning of 2023, there were a ton of MoveOn, Trumpers, and they wanted Ron DeSantis. They were super DeSantis curious. They thought he handled COVID well. They loved that he was putting migrants on planes. They thought he was Trump without the baggage. Very around people. Very. And they did. Yeah.
We got some great sound of that in there it is. The New Hampshire focus groups are there. MAGA folks. Scripts are so dark. They’re so dark. I mean, I. Didn’t even once. I don’t want to sound prejudiced. I want a turning point USA and I so I felt prepared for the MAGA
Focus groups and even I was like, what a guy literally talked about being worried about Nikki Haley being on the rag. He said. In a photo. It was it was real. First of all, it started out by a woman being like, No, I don’t want anybody to be mad at me,
But I just don’t think a woman can be president because and I think the other women can relate to this. We think with our hearts, not with our heads. So it starts there. And then this guy, Johnson, to be like, yeah, I just don’t think they can have their finger on the button
And they carry around the case because they could be having a bad day or on their period or who knows what. Then they get to the DeSantis thing, like, he’s weak, he’s a wimp, he’s running a terrible campaign. Like,
The only thing I really liked about him was the way he treated those migrants. When he put. The migrants on the plane like that. And people are like, Yeah, it’s like that an. Idea. Which goes back to my theory of the case that was had Jeff Roe spent $0 on ads
And put all the money into erecting a statue of Ron DeSantis, kicking an immigrant in the butt and put that statue in Iowa and another one in New Hampshire. I think that would have been a much better use of resources than the entire DeSantis campaign. Besides that.
Sorry, I got to get back to my book Always Trumpers. You might need to get straight to the queue and those that are pretty hot. Stick around for the Q&A. Keep going. it’s Trumpers. Maybe Trumpers Move on the Dreamers. All right.
So all round to see it just had to do was focus on the move on from Trumpers. But instead he tried to wrestle Trump for his death cult. And by the time he had said that we should abandon Ukraine, have a six week
Abortion ban, and that all of Trump’s legal things were fine, he’d alienated all the move on from Trumpers, and pretty soon Trump was DeSantis without the baggage. Like he was never like, I don’t know, that guy’s fun. That guy’s more fun. And look, he’s in court all the time. This is great.
It’s like, this is like watching my favorite television show about the guy who’s always in court. It’s like a great legal drama. And DeSantis won that. Also, he’s the only candidate I’ve ever seen. He’s got this vaunted he hit 99 counties, 99 Cool.
When people who meet you like you less after meeting you, seeing everybody is a bad campaign strategy. I got. Nothing out. Okay. So we we saw him and he did show up in New Hampshire. We said he wasn’t going to go to New Hampshire immediately. I don’t have a dissenting voice.
I’ve tried I’ve workshopped my DeSantis voice in front of a. Santa said. Bottle. It’s yeah, it doesn’t every booster you take it does does one. When you present every booster you take, you’re more likely to get COVID as a result of it. This is how he’s going out.
He should go out like he came in. Yeah that’s I think he’s got red pilled. No, no, no. He really. Is that really he really just had no I don’t. Know he’s gotten fully red pilled on the COVID thing. I mean he has his surgeon general for Florida is an anti-vaxxer
And you know, he said that he was going to make Robert F Kennedy part of his administration and the Health and Human Services. Saying we’re going to miss out on. That. So, yeah, and this is like the the. Ron DeSantis finally found something he believes in. Yeah.
And the thing he believes in is hating science. Yeah. Saving vaccines. Yeah. let’s be fair. He hates gay people, too. Okay. Yeah. Actually, in science, he’s. He’s actually done. Okay. He’s okay on climate change. I understand. You don’t tell me. Okay? And climate change. Don’t tell me that. Now, let’s talk about that.
You can’t talk about any of the good things that you do in a Republican primary. It’s kind of it’s one of the problems my DeSantis thing is, I his all of these people that were so adamant to support Ron DeSantis at the beginning because he was the cost free way off Trump
Like they all turned out to be exactly who we thought they were. They’re not even they’ve all banned in ship, right? Like the National Review, Ron DeSantis has no endorsements, and it’s just him and Chip Roy and Thomas Massie, who’s like a libertarian weirdo. Like, that’s it. That’s all that’s left.
I’m seeing Thomas Massie on TV. It’s a strange fellow. You know. Do you have one of the smartest quotes of all time about the Republican Party? You know, the Thomas Massie quote, Not so good. Yeah. Yeah, I’m at the house. Nancy is like, he’s a libertarian Ron Paul type.
And he was like before Trump. I always thought that Republican voters wanted the most conservative, most anti-government candidate in the race. What I realize after 2016 is that they were looking for the craziest son of a bitch in the race. Yeah, well. There goes kind of a statute for a Republican congressman
Anyway, but that they’ve all jumped ship, too, like so. I don’t know. I guess what I’m saying is I don’t know why I have to spend time on Ron DeSantis. Even his supporters have given up on him. JBL gave a decent reason, which is it is fun to watch.
Yeah, I mean. It’s fun to watch him. Look, we take our pleasure, but we can find That’s true. That’s fair. I proposed this in a newsletter that I wrote, which I’m sure neither of you have read. Our loyal Reader. I propose I read your. In The Atlantic. It was good. Yeah. Thank you.
Proposed. Ron DeSantis ran the worst primary campaign of any of our lifetimes. Let me let me unpack that before you. Before he reacts to it. First question is Mario Tim, who ran the second, third place? I think that you could make a reasonable case,
Even though you’re I’m around everybody in the Republican race who got in left a little bit better than they than they start it right. Mike Pence, I think, got the post script for his for his time and in American civic life.
I think we all in it to a good way because he’s an American hero. That’s right. Fight me about that. Mike Pence is the hero. We need Tim Scott sort of, you know, even Steven. But see, now he looked like he raised his profile a little bit.
Nikki Haley is going to get appointed to some corporate boards eventually. Vivek People now know who he is, which is something he cares about. I mean, they all they all did okay for themselves. There’s that old adage in politics, right? It’s never a bad thing to run for president.
You know, you can only you can only be helped by running for president. I think Ron DeSantis destroyed his entire life by running for president. I don’t know. I think Casey’s going to come out okay. But she’s going to be away from the stink of her husband. She would’ve been fine without it.
Now he’ll stand there in his lifts and he’ll smile awkwardly and, you know, and. Chill, eating his pudding. Yeah. She’s going to make a great governor of Florida. Doing his weird mouth. Do you remember that? That gift of him? Just like doing the mouth thing. It’s amazing.
I got to tell you, I think it’s I think it’s a clear choice between him and Scott Walker. I think that Hillary and Jeb or are close for a tied third as far as the worst primaries of our adult life. It’s a serious question. Is this a surge?
Yeah, but but, you know, Hillary ends up being nominated again. We’re not gonna talk about what happened then Jeb left with his dignity. Bad campaign. Okay. Maybe he left with some dignity. Right? he didn’t endorse Trump. He didn’t suck up to Trump like Ron DeSantis is going to end up having to do.
And just think about him since he’s going to be standing behind Trump making that weird smile. I mean, Dawson. I hope the DA tells him not to get on the plane. Yeah, exactly. So, you know, and what But what? Walker is the cop, right?
Like Walker ended up leading the Republican primary in 16 for a while, and now he’s, like, making ham sandwiches alone in Wisconsin. I got out before he had to lose any votes. Right? Exactly right. And so now he. Got out with dignity. Yeah. So that is why it’s clearly it’s clear. Understand this.
The other big difference between DeSantis and Walker is in 16, we really in our defense, like we didn’t realize how stupid the Republican base really was. Like, we just we really didn’t like we thought that eventually we thought we were reliving 12.
You know, we’re like, Herman Cain leads the polls and the like, and then they vote like, I’m not really going to vote for the pizza guy. Like, that’s what we thought was going to happen with Trump. And I think that was rational. It was wrong, the mistake.
And we were political professionals, so we should have been better. But it was at least a rational thought this time. Like you knew what the base was, you knew exactly what they were looking for. And Ron DeSantis still ran the exact same stupid campaign that Ted Cruz ran in 2016. No. Sort of.
I don’t think they knew. I don’t think I think Nikki Haley. no. I just think. That these. People, they know that eight years, they hang out at AEI conferences and with rich donors and they do sit on corporate boards and they spend very little time with regular voters.
They don’t understand the Trump phenomenon. You can’t tell me Mike Pence runs if he understands base voters. What, but you should have. How do you Maybe. I can find out Humiliation. is defense right all for us to not understand in 2016 how crazy they become? It is not defensible. I agree.
I agree that that’s why I think it’s the worst one. I think Mike Pence had a fine job running and I think he knew he was going to he’s going to go back and rehabilitate his reputation. That this is you’ve chosen, this is your hell to die on is so weird.
I love it. I love it so much as bad as Ron. I do think Nikki Haley is going to be the VP still. So you wrote for The Atlantic. So Show of hands. Is JBL right that Nikki Haley is going to be the VP? Let’s see who’s on your not.
What I wrote when I wrote that she was the front runner. And what I said at the time was, look, if you have to choose Nikki or the field, you should still take the field. But if you rank them all by probability, I think Nikki should be considered the leader.
I think that is a perfectly normal thing to do. That said, she’s the worst. So being interviewed with Dana Bash, with her work husband Chris inner interesting next to her, which is a weird thing. He just follows her everywhere. Isn’t everything like just sitting there. He’s like her Chris Christie. Have you
Have you ever have you ever watched a discussion with her actual husband? No. Okay. I think it makes a lot more sense. But Dana Bash says, how do you feel about your party’s frontrunner, frontrunner being found liable for sexual abuse? Nikki Haley, first of all, I haven’t paid attention to his cases.
She just missed it. It’s just I don’t know. It’s not a thing that happened. All I know is he’s innocent until proven guilty. You have investigations on Trump and Biden. What sort of brain dead response is that? Because it’s it’s not good enough for anybody. Well, why would you criticize the person
You’re running against for president? How much sense does that make? Even so, though, right? It doesn’t. I’m just saying that if you’re Nikki Haley, this doesn’t help you with anybody or this or that response. Does it lose you votes somewhere? No. What is happening? What is wrong with these people?
I feel like I’m taking. Crazy people hate it when you ask what is wrong with this earnestly. Because they have been told they’ve rationalized the idea that the only way to have to be successful within the Republican Party is to not get on the wrong side of Trump voters.
And so you do this post-hoc rationalization of all this stuff and you give crazy answers. And it’s self-fulfilling, right? Because then you seem like a typical politician, right? And so the MAGA people want is somebody that says it like it is, you know what I mean?
And so when she’s giving these answers, thinking that it’s going to help make them not mad at her, but all this has reinforced their view that she’s phony here. Look, Tim’s a campaign guy, so he’ll understand this. What do candidates do? What do they have? What do they keep? What are their staffs?
Do they when they want to criticize somebody they’re running against, they have a book, right? There’s a little book like an Apple file. All right. That’s filled with all the bad things that the other candidate has ever done or said. Right. So let’s say. Donald Trump says, hey, Operation Warp Speed, don’t.
Hold data back. He was the best president ever. It his page one could be like convicted in civil court of rape. Page two Did an insurrection. Page three lied about the election being stolen and wouldn’t leave the White House none of those are even in the conversation.
So, like, they don’t want they don’t want to win. Nikki Haley Not running a real campaign is the answer to the question. They’re not running a national campaign. They’re hoping, like many of us, that he dies. That’s it. That’s the campaign.
That’s the answer I give you. Like, why are they doing what they’re doing? Clap for that. Don’t clap. I mean, team leprosy. Leprosy. 2024. That’s right. All right. So listen, I’m Mike Pence, the greatest American of our time. Yes. He got done dirty by his former chief of staff, Nick Ayers, this week.
By the way, you have some thoughts on us. If you ever met Nick Ayres. No, I try not to meet people, Tim. Yeah, I don’t blame. You. So why you need your shirt to express your salutations? Yeah. Yeah. In a category of just the worst people you’ll ever meet,
Republican political consultants like Nick Ayres, this is. This is a tough category. Yeah. And like Nick Ayres laps the field’s. Okay? I just want everybody to get on their little phone and Google them, and all you got to do is just look at his face if you want to.
Afterwards. And you can just know. You don’t know. You don’t know that to me. You just know you’re like that guy. But for some reason, Mike Pence made a lot of mistakes. Let’s be honest. He did one. He had one good day,
Which is better than a better better than better than drawn to scientists. But he had one good day. He made a lot of mistakes, including hiring this guy to be his chief of staff. And, you know, he does all the phony, fake, pious religious stuff and him and Pence pray together
And they care about the country and abortion and blah, blah. Well, I don’t I don’t know if you recall, but Mike Pence, his boss and was was encouraging a mob that wanted to hang him. Yeah. So you think that like if you are really loyal to that boss
And you prayed together and you guys were, you know, in, in, you know, in fellowship together, that you probably wouldn’t want to like, just shiv him and go support the person that wanted him hanged. Not true of your neck. Yeah. Snickers came out today and endorsed Donald Trump
While the primary is still not over. And this is it. And me and Bill been together, is this the thing that, like it is? It doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things, whether Nick Ayres or Marco or John, any of these people endorsed Trump in April or now.
It doesn’t really like effectively it doesn’t matter, but it does say something about them as a person, right, that they are not that well. The campaign is still effectively on like Nick Ayres or Marco or any of these people could have said today,
You know, this is the moment to get behind Ron DeSantis Right. Like that. Donald Trump You know, he was a great president, blah, blah, blah. But he did do that insurrection. And maybe we have a chance right now. So before that, well before the people have had their say,
I’m going to come out and go campaign for a few days with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, and then I will, you know, be a supplicant again. Any of them could have done that. None of them have done it. None of them. Nikki Haley’s endorsements are totally indistinguishable from
If Bill Kristol had run for president. She has, Chris. He never would have gotten Ralph Norman. The personnel and Larry Hogan. That’s it. None of these people are even trying to beat him. And so they’ve all made the choice that for their own careers, that they’re going
To get behind the guy that they all knew and saw for what he was on January six. And they’re doing it now and them. And like they really they really deserve everybody’s anger and they do not deserve to spit at Spago. Forget Spago. They don’t even deserve a goddamn table at Applebee’s.
Nick Ayres, Cracker Barrel. I hope the DOJ is not here. That’s right. And Nick Ayers might be the chief of staff to Donald Trump next time, so we might really be in trouble. That’s amazing. But fuck him. They got podcasting equipment in the Gulag. yeah. So Donald Trump’s been caught.
Does the Aegean. Carol, I’m sorry. I have to read these things to you guys. I’m not sure whose this is. The so, you know, in the convention journalism is when you’re quoting something, you put in to block quotes, but then sometimes you have to clean it up or do stuff that’s inaudible.
It’s built into brackets. So brackets, not parentheses or the weird thing you use on your copy. Tim, which is use the I don’t even know what they’re called. Well, it’s on the same key as the brackets, but it’s like the curly. Key to the curly bracket.
I love those. Yes, but they’re not real. It’s not what you, you. Take it out every time. I don’t even notice. I don’t even notice what you did to my, my copy. We have a this is just like total inside baseball joke, but edit people long enough and you reach the point
That you can tell when their copy is in without the name on the file. You just read it. And from the way it’s formatted, you know who wrote it. Like, yeah, this is the Ariel ten point. I know who that is. All right, This is Donald Trump.
And here’s the bracketed muttering loudly during testimony of Jean Carroll. Words heard our con job and witchhunt. The attorney Brackett objects that the jury can hear Trump’s outbursts. Judge Kaplan, Mr. Trump has the right to be present here. That right can be forfeited and it can be forfeited.
If he is disruptive, she turns to Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump, I hope I don’t have to consider excluding you from the trial. I understand that you are probably very eager for me to do that. Trump throws up hands. I would love it. I would love it. Judge Kaplan.
I know you would. I know you would. You just can’t control yourself in this circumstance, apparently. TRUMP You can’t. Either. Despite the fact that I got an absurdly high Al SAT score, I did not go to law school. Is this is this good courtroom stuff? Is this like what? What does happen?
We did a show where JBL talked about his LSAT scores and the editor cut it for time and he Jimmy I’ll. Never forget. Freaked out. I made sure to put it in the next episode. It made no sense. He just said, I want to tell you what I got as well. SAT scores.
That’s right. I carry on the shame of my med school rejections and the only thing I have to pacify me is my insanely high l sat score. You took so many tests for higher education and you never went to any event like you did. You have no higher degrees. True.
But I could have gone to law school. I got into too long. Straight zero medical stipulate counts. The question. My question is. What the is happening where you have this man like acting like an insane person in court? Okay, so. And it’s just like, yeah, that’s where we are as a country.
So maybe he’s going to be president again. So I find the legal stuff confounding because you may know there’s two cases right now, and none of them are the six felony cases. There’s two civil cases going on. And so I had to start a whole nother podcast with George Conway where,
Yeah, if I slip where he just explains legal stuff to me. And in this particular case, you wonder what’s funny about this case. There’s not a jury. Yeah, it’s just that judge that he’s yelling at, like, that’s who’s going to rule on this case. Because here’s the thing.
Trump doesn’t care because all he’s trying to do is delay all of this. So this is for voters, right? This is for his voters to show them how he fights, how nobody can get him down, how he’s taking on the system that he’s going to try to delay, delay, delay,
And then he’s going to be president and nobody can put him in jail. That’s his plan. It’s almost as good as your plan of just him dying like these are the plans. The plans are I will yell at all the judges and then become president and have total immunity.
From is that the people are just looking for somebody who’s going to give the what for to the sanctimonious judges. People are sick. Those lady judges. Why do they believe she could be on her period? Yeah. And Jamie Dimon has his finger on the pulse. He knows that
People are just sick of the elites and they’re looking for someone. To dial. In. Courts Thinks that people are sick of the elites. Yes, that’s right. And they’re just the people. Just they’re looking for somebody. capitalism is amazing. I keep telling you.
People all camps beliefs about the person they raped 40 times in a single day. When you let your child be on a T-ball team with somebody, even if you went to their 12 seed and they were talking about someone they raped 30 years ago and how they’re a birdbrain, probably not.
So here is from from Trump’s true social feed today. It’s in all caps, but I’m not going to yell at you. So just just pretend that I’m screaming in all caps. The president must have full immunity, even even in events across the line. And he then goes on
To compare it to the police. And he says just the same way, the police must have full immunity, even though there are bad apples. And sometimes they do bad things because you can’t try to stop bad police from doing bad things because then the whole social order breaks down.
I thought to myself, Isn’t that what commies like me have always thought? That police should have called about the fine immunity. Right? And he’s just he just said it. We’ve always thought that their opinion was you shouldn’t even try to prosecute bad cops. And here he is admitting it.
Most people are just saying, Yeah, that’s right. At a I have a bunch of questions, but here’s the first one. The logic of Trump’s position is that Joe Biden could have him assassinated tomorrow. That’s right. Okay. Trump, don’t say anything don’t know. You know, I’ve heard worse arguments. TRUMP
Trump also believes that Joe Biden is a corrupt head of a criminal crime family. A criminal crime. Former head of a crime family, correct? He does. So Donald Trump says that Joe Biden is a mobster who’s legally entitled to have him rubbed out. He can’t believe both of those things. Right.
Because if he did, he’d be signing his own death warrant. No. Yeah. What the what do the people. In your focus group say about this? It depends on the people. The part that I like, though, is where he says even when they cross the line,
Even that feel like a little bit of an admission that maybe once or twice there might have been a line that he crossed. I mean, a lot of that he sends out a bleat about how he wants to be a, you know, dictator that has no
There are no rules, no norms that he’s above the law. Then he kind of slides under that. And I also think cops are built to kill black people and ever they want. Yes. You know, and it’s like that doesn’t even make the news. No, it’s like not.
Like I didn’t because I hadn’t read the whole thing. And I read several articles about how he, you know, thought he was above the law. And then I finally went back and read the thing and I was like, yeah, you threw in this little thing
About killing black people. And there to that doesn’t even that doesn’t even make the nightly news anymore. Which is the point, actually. What am I? Focus groups think about it. Nothing because they have no idea that he’s doing it because this a weird thing is happening and it has to.
Part of my optimistic case around Joe Biden is that this is a thing that has to change once Trump is the nominee. But I do have a slight fear about how baked in this weird stuff is where he can just say I’m immune from prosecution and also.
Had a word for this psychological word, kind of. Malignant, malignant, nasty. No, he’s been a lawyer, but he’s also kind of, I guess on the side is one thing. As a psychologist, it’s just of Donald Trump. About how people get used to weird stuff like, it’s just human nature.
It’s human nature after time, you know, you adapt right to your surroundings and our surroundings. It’s like we have an absolutely insane mad man, like throwing feces at the wall and like being one of the leaders of one of our two major parties and people are kind of like, yeah. He talked about
Serving more than four more years last week. This is the thing that happened right? Again, something I wrote and predicted months ago. And literally, I think I’m the only person who noticed if it did, it wasn’t in the news anywhere. If Joe Biden said, you know, Joe Biden.
Yeah, you know, put out something on on Twitter and said, yeah, in after he beat Donald Trump, take a look at that third term thing. Everybody would lose their minds. This is I. Just pretty old I. Joe Biden is old.
I had a feeling I had this feeling about the Trump victory speech in Iowa. Did anybody watch it and B, suffer through that or just watch it? Okay, So, you know, it’s the victory speech. And it was it was subdued for Trump, right? It was relatively subdued.
But over the course of the speech, he talked about how the 2020 election was stolen from him and how the great people of Iowa understand that he was robbed and that Joe Biden’s an illegitimate president. Then then he invites a person from the crowd wearing a suit made of bricks.
The brick man, and and invites him up to the stage and they talk about how great the Brick man is that he was love the Brick man president about it. And that’s why I said, there’s a little also at the bottom thing like
Biden gives a speech where he’s like, you know, where he’s relitigating things from like 1990, you know, he’s like Al Gore got screwed. I get by various other giving speeches, like Al Gore gets screwed, and then he invites somebody in a Hamas flag up on to the stage.
I was just like, CNN would be having the vapors, like for like days. It’d be all they would talk about, about how, like Joe Biden has dementia and he’s and he’s in league with the far left. But the response to the Trump speech on CNN was like, wow, Mr.
Trump pivoting to the general. He only brought Brickman up for a couple of. Minutes and he looks presidential. Yeah. So I promise we won’t end dark. yeah, we will. I’ve got I’m in charge of in charge of the audience to that. We won’t end the, the formal part of the podcast arc.
Did either of you read the Jon Chait piece? It’s like 9000 words. And anybody here read that? Boy, I. Saw all your newsletters. Yeah, I tried, but it was. It was a bear. I read about the first 20%. So Che talks about how the anti-Trump
Coalition has fallen apart over the last four years, and he opens with a little potted history of Weimar Germany and how what happened was the socialists in Germany participated in overthrowing the Liberal government because they believed that once the Liberals were gone, people would see how crazy the Nazis were.
And they chose communism instead. And he then goes to just have a, you know, marshal a little bit of data about young voters and voters who are like really upset about Palestine and Joe Biden’s genocide and all this stuff. You see in the San Francisco City Council, maybe socialists, maybe comparison.
But he I would say it is a deeply depressing thing because it’s a description of where we are right now. Right. All the national polling shows this. Trump is either even with Biden or he’s ahead by about four points. I understand that it’s the national polling doesn’t mean anything, but it
It actually mean something. If you if somebody is ahead by four points nationally, then they’re going to win Pennsylvania. That’s just the way it’s going to be. And that’s where we are right now. And so if things are, things have to change, right? I mean, we can’t just like, hey,
If we glide from where we are right now, then everything will will be okay. Things have to turn around. And this is I want to tee this up for you with your latest project because I’m sorry. You have to save the country again. Sarah.
You and your tiny lesbian friends like Kara swisher, and. There aren’t that many. There aren’t enough of you. There aren’t enough tiny lesbians. There aren’t enough tiny lesbians to save American democracy. Got a few lesbians out here. Good job. Yeah. All right. A couple of lesbians.
Just be careful just throwing it around your Joe. I got lesbians. Are. So this machine. Lady with the act like she’s. Going to go. Tell the people, the people how you’re going to save America. I’m not going to I’m not going to talk about that right now. Not just broadly.
I think what I want to talk about is how things are going to change for Joe Biden. So your point is something has to change. And what I think what is clear, you’re going to start to see a lot of pieces, a lot of think pieces from the mainstream media.
And they’re all going to start to realize that there’s something going on with voters where they have a certain kind of amnesia about Trump because he is bleeding on truth, social and not in the public eye. People have a very clear sense right now of what they don’t like about Joe Biden.
He is the one that they see. He is the one they think of when they worry about why the economy is the way it is. But he’s amazing. But and voters are also okay, don’t be on your side. The economy is amazing and Mike Pence is a hero. Yeah, they’re you.
If you clap for one, you’re clapping for both. Congratulations on finding a bunch of people in San Francisco who think the economy is doing well. Had a few of these in the back. In pretty good. I do think I do think the economy is going to
Voters are a lagging indicator on the economy. The economy has to like that’s like a table stakes because the economy has to be off the table for Trump because that is the thing that you hear voters here all the time, including swing
Voters, say, I just feel like the economy was better under Trump. They have forgotten about the pandemic. It’s like a weird thing they just cut out. They don’t like. Think about the fact that he cratered the economy by mismanaging the pandemic, and it’s just not in there.
So the economy does have to come back, and I think voters will notice it as it does. It is coming back. And like once they start cutting interest rates, I think you’re going to see real movement in sort of voters perception.
We are already starting to see voters start to catch up a little bit. But the most important thing is the contrast with Trump. People have forgotten about Trump. They just have He’s not present and the media is not covering him in this weird way.
And until he is the people, all the people in our business, they talk about like, well, what about the issues and all this? The thing about Trump is people feel viscerally toward him. Some people, for reasons I can’t imagine, find him funny and enjoyable.
But many people, including these swing voters, find him repellent, which is how I’ve always found him. And so, yeah, I mean, he is repellent, but but most of the swing voters like the swing voters when you put him in front.
And the thing is he is going to do and say a thousand horrible things between now and November, things we can’t even imagine, he’s going to dine with white supremacists and he’s going to I don’t know, I’m going to take a toddler. Just isn’t taking a shot at Nikki Haley’s dying dad yet?
I was thinking about some draft bleats he could do about that. That could be this week. He’s too busy doing birtherism on her right now. But he is. He is. The voters are not locked into the fact that this is Biden or Trump.
I was my favorite other kind of focus group as an Uber artist. You know, it takes forever to get anywhere in the city. Thomas Friedman and Leslie Thomas Friedman, I. Just this guy listen, I like to ask people what they think, but he does the same thing that. You’re asking for.
You know, his numbers are good. Text him questions later to how. We just chatted and he was like, it’s not really going to be Biden and Trump. And that’s how all the voters think right now, Peter, who are not locked in,
They do not think it’s going to be one of these two guys. And I do think the contrast, once people do, it’s going to change contours of this race because people would rather vote for I don’t want to I don’t want to say anything about Joe Biden.
But like as long as Joe Biden is standing. On some presidents, long. As he’s standing on two legs, they will vote. They’re not you are not building a pro Joe Biden coalition. You are building an anti-Trump poll. What if he’s riding a rascal? If he’s riding a rascal, will I vote for him?
I think it’ll be okay. Joe Biden can eke out, I think, a victory against Donald Trump because I think the anti-Trump coalition nothing. And you Democrats win if Joe Biden gets reelected Democrats have their own really tough reckoning coming and there is a chasm between the progressives. Your coalition is a mess
To the Republican coalition. It’s crazy and is now terrible, but it’s like altogether super. yeah, very. Cohesive. It’s very cohesive. Well, when you’re 98% white and we all come from the same place. It’s kind of cohesive except for the Mitt Romney people. I got to tell you, when I was that
I went to the MAGA, New York young Republicans Club to watch the Iowa caucus results, as one does. When I was in New York and I’m walking up the stairs, they had a speakeasy in New York. It’s a MAGA speakeasy opened during COVID.
They could like blow particles on each other and not be worried about it. And and so I’m walking up the stairs and a young woman about about my age is walks up behind me and she says, Hey, Tim Tim Miller on for you.
Like, this guy, I don’t like to be recognized in these faces. And I was like, yeah, what? And she was like, I met you and you’re on job. And she’s like, I worked for Mitt and I was a lawyer and I was like, interesting. What are you doing here?
And she was like, Well, I just moved to New York, and so I signed up from the New York young Republicans Club. I thought it was going to be an interesting place to meet people and I don’t know, maybe find somebody to date.
And I was like, You’re in for a fucking surprise when we open this door, lady. And I was like, Will you open the door? That’s like a guy in a shirt that’s like, Roger Stone did nothing wrong. And like, throughout the whole night, she kept looking at CNN interview these bozos,
And she’s like, in the corner, sipping a wine, like looking at me. So it’s not totally cohesive. There are a few people who haven’t I haven’t quite recognized. That woman is 4 seconds away from being a Democrat. No, I like that. Like the rest of us now. I think that’s right.
All right, guys. It’s that time. Good show. Long show. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you very much for coming out. We’re so grateful. And Tim. You want to have a Q&A started? You want to recognize any anybody, any VIP in the crowd? Yeah. I just want to say my in-laws are here somewhere. Right there.
My college roommate is here, my dad. So a bunch of my best friends are here anyway. And like, and some assorted business associates. And I just like, thanks for coming guys is really nice and reveals mother in law is here mother. Of all Peggy Yeah. The Shannon Oakland posse Oakland posse represent
All right. And I like all the people in the overflow room. There’s an overflow room and they’re just they’re watching this on the screen and. They’re so cool. I like I’ve heard a lot of questions from you people, and I like the cut of your jib. And here is the first question.
I wish this I’m kind of guessing this is a gentleman, but I don’t know. But I wish this gentleman put his name on it. Sarah, this question is for you. Assuming Trump is elected, results the assassination of a tyrant is justified to save our democracy. Yes or no? Yes. No.
Violence is never the answer. No. J.V., The only one who’s going to stay out of jail. Hold on, hold on. Is the assassination take place between the election and the inauguration. And is it ordered by the sitting president with. The large. Across a few lines? Well, immunity because you can’t impeach somebody.
You can’t beat somebody once. They can’t be convinced. And once they’re gone. Look, if you don’t let a president cross a few lines, yeah, you’re not doing that anymore. Don’t even have a country. Mitch McConnell constitutional exemption the last week of your presidency, free for all. Can’t.
If we can’t turn around a conviction in time, nothing we can do. Okay, sir, let me just say my answer. I do wish that the state was a little bit better, but I just I’m pretty upset about it. I’m not for assassination. I’m really not.
But I just like the deep state. Like, you know, Do we? We don’t have any video of Donald Trump’s, like, tiny dick in, like, a bedroom or anything like that. They can’t leak. Like, where is the CIA on all this stuff? You know, like this deep state, those votes to stop Donald Trump.
They elected Donald Trump, James Comey elected Donald Trump. He went after Hillary. The deep state is terrible. I wish that we had a. Didn’t they find pictures of him crumpling up the documents and putting them in the toilet? Yeah, I guess I could use something a little better. That’s pretty good.
I guess that’s pretty good. okay. this is. This is no life here. And they said their name. Thank you. Norman. Did really try to give Biden COVID at the 2020 debate. Yes. This is my top conspiracy theory that I’ve been begging Maggie Haberman to fucking prove it.
But The New York Times, every time I see her. Yeah, I mention this to Maggie Haberman. I’ll pass that. Along. Should go back and watch that debate and see how often Trump, because he was the blow, was like a rabid dog in that debate. But like, did he get physically in his space?
We saw him do that. I don’t know. We should watch the video cause he knew he had it. Okay, JBL, this question is for you. Serious question. 172 was a male. Senator. That’s who beats Donald Trump in 2028. I don’t know. That’s a primary or general election question.
No, I mean, his his goal is to die in office, I think. Right? I mean, this is I think this is very clear. And he has he has said as much he has said the last time around, he said, you know, what was the exact phrase he used was, I think
They treated me so unfairly in my first term that we’re going to have a conversation about getting a make up term and we’ll we’ll have a negotiation and we’ll figure something out. And this is. And everybody will be very happy. Everybody will they will come up with some beautiful things. Yeah.
And this is this is what his goal is. And for people who say like, it couldn’t happen last year, who’s going to stop him? Who’s going to stop him? Right. And I yeah. I think about that period all the time where they were supposed to be starting the transition
And they just weren’t didn’t and nobody knew what to do right. There’s no like election police that walks in and says, yeah, you got to start turning over the documents. This is I mean, I wrote about this a little bit too. I’m sure you didn’t read it
In as we were in the final days of of January of 2021. I did think to myself, I wonder if he leaves, because if he doesn’t leave the White House on January 20th, who’s going to stop him? Right. And at that point, you wind up at the level of, well,
We got to call the Joint Chiefs of Staff and see who they’re loyal to and who they’re willing to take orders from. And before you tell me I’m a crazy person about this, we saw a version of this on January 6th
Where they were taking orders from Mike Pence when they shouldn’t have been. And the reason they were taking orders from Mike Pence, because the United States would not execute his duties. So, you know, we’ve already had them then that was a case where it was
It was good out of the chain of command. Right. You could have out bad out of the chain of command. This is where constitutional crisis is. Are there where you don’t know what to do because there’s not because it depends on certain norms, like.
And we’re going to have a constitutional crisis no matter what. Right. No matter what happens come come November, whether it is a guy who, you know, who says he hasn’t been defeated or has been defeated or he’s won, but there are criminal cases proceeding against him.
I mean, this is the idea that like, well, we just have to beat him at the ballot box. That is not true, right? You have to beat him at the ballot box. Then you have to beat him in the courts. And then you’re going to have to hope that everything else holds.
And you’re also going have to beat him by a lot like it really can’t be super close because there will be there will be violence. If it’s close. To him, ask another question. Do something. Like now. I want to go back take you back to the young Republicans clubhouse for a minute,
A couple of a couple of the smarter ones, not the guy in the Roger Stone shirt where you wanted to kind of debate me a little bit and like. Maybe, bro. Yeah, exactly. And so I’ve cornered a couple of them on this point.
I was like, it was not a peaceful transfer of power. It was the first time ever and like and I was like, Do you believe there’s a 0% chance that he will try to stay in power? 0% chance? And they’re kind of like,
You know, because they started that he’s not going to be a dictator here. And you have today. And I was like, do you believe it’s a 0% chance, A couple of them like for I don’t know, 5%? That’s like, that’s bad. We’re at a 5% chance of dictatorship. Like, that’s really.
You’re about to. Board a plane and somebody says there’s a 95% chance that this plane doesn’t crash. Are you getting on the plane? Of course. No. And then one of them chimes in, Look, I you know, Trump empire wouldn’t really be that bad. This is the thing, though.
I mean, and there. Will be some of those. So who cares what a 24 year old thinks? But there will be within that it was a representative of what a Trump administration would be. Right. That there would be some people in there
That would be like, this would be bad, we shouldn’t do it. But there will be a handful of Jeffrey Clarke’s in there that it’s like wouldn’t really be that bad. If 30% of the party strongly wants him to stay in there to the point that they will
Rush the capital for him, then the other part of the party gets scared of that. And then who’s there to execute the things? Who’s there to make it happen? I took this question in a funnier way. You guys took it in the dark where I was.
I was thinking in the way of Donald Trump. The question originally was, if you remember who beat Trump 2028, I took it as Trump is going to lose the general election and then win the primary and then win the primary again in 2028
To beat Trump, then try to get because I don’t think anybody I think Trump could win another another primary in 2028. So sit on that. You might think we’re done with them. No, we’re never done with them. Not until death or. Real quick. Real quick. Michelle Obama. Hold on, hold on.
I’m being dead serious with a show of hands who thinks that Donald Trump could lose a Republican primary any time before his death? I’m being serious, not glib, because my my view is that he will win every Republican primary he enters until he dies. Yes, really?
He would at least be a clear favorite in 2028. It’d be a clear favorite. Okay. Michelle Obama says when they go low, we go high. James Carville says Mark is dirty diaper. Who is right and why? This is actually a complicated messaging question.
And it really comes down to like Charlie always says, you know, the problem is a clown with a flamethrower still has a flamethrower. And so you run the risk, right? Yes. You want to mock him and that diminishes him to some degree. But it also then diminishes the severity of the threat.
And the threat is real in terms of how dangerous he is. And so I don’t think mocking is not sufficient. I don’t know why Adam Kinzinger is decided so much that Trump smelling is like become the now, this is what we’ve really got to focus on.
Has anybody asked Adam, is it true or is it a bit. I didn’t ask him because I. Will see if I can get an answer before the show is okay. I’ll ask the next question. Will I text or text? Adam Okay. Famous people, I know your answer. Go low or go high.
Where are you on that one? Me? Yeah. I mean, if you don’t want to be indicted on RICO charges, you should probably go high. I know. I mean, against Trump, I don’t think it matters. And like, he just is. He’s a force of nature, and I’m sorry. He’s what? Not?
Yeah, I mean, no. I mean, if he could spell it, maybe he would be. He’s but, you know, he is what he is and. Is the gazpacho, there’s response. yeah. All right. Okay. Sarah, you didn’t answer. Giovanni asks this, so we will follow up with the crowd
Regarding your column in the New York Times today. I don’t know if you saw Sarah Long was in The New York Times today. I wrote I had to write a companion piece for the Bulwark so he wouldn’t freak out. that’s nice. Yeah. Of past Trump cabinet members who no longer support him.
Do you think any of them will come out in public to support Biden? Yes, I do. I do. And, you know, there there I didn’t answer this before because you’re setting me up. But like I do think there should be an effort to organize former Trump administration officials. What might this be call?
I think somebody will do that. And I think it will be good to have people who saw him up close who are credible messengers about what they saw. Who will the thing about the the former officials is like John Kelly,
I said this in the piece, They feel like they feel like they’re saying it. They feel like they’re telling people and they feel like it’s not mattering, that nobody. But he called it like a half days bounce. You know, the problem is, is you cannot talk to the Atlantic
Into The New York Times, which is where the piece was. So, you know, but my my piece is aimed at them, right? I’m saying you guys have to do this in a relentless, consistent way because voters need to hear it. And you are a credible messenger for voters. I what I find astounding,
Many of these people are generals. They sent men and women to die for this country, presumably they would have died for this country. And the idea that they are now afraid to stand up for democracy by simply saying what they saw and the idea that, well, I’m a general, I can’t be political.
When you have worked in a Republican administration for Donald Trump is asinine. And so I do think I think people often we have seen a lot of people disappoint us because we thought they would say something when they didn’t. But I do think this is there are a number of people,
Lots of them won’t, but I do think some of them will. And I think it’s matter. Of some names. What do we think, sexy Rex Tillerson. We think he does something. No. Mark Esper out. Mark Esper is out there doing it. Sonny Perdue Agriculture. The I don’t think. Wilbur Ross still alive.
I don’t think he’ll do the right thing. It’s a pretty bleak list. Mulvaney I guess. Elaine. Elaine Chao. I mean, he made fun of her. He made racist attacks on her. You think she does the right thing? Maybe. Elaine Chao. No. No hope for Elaine Chao. I don’t have hope for Elaine Chao.
My hope is for this. Man, former WWE wife. Now, how many Biden, former Biden admission administration officials are coming out to talk about how dangerous he is. I forget what’s the number exactly? It’s a four of them. Why are you saying you’re accusing me? I’m just.
Saying that that the fact that it’s like zero from Biden and then the other is like, hey, we’ve got 17 people who worked up close with them and say he’s a danger to American democracy. Like a whole cabinet. Right. And like. Voters just go, seems. This I.
Go, You know what’s funny going through this list is you were as you were going through it, you’re like, my God, he churned through people like you wouldn’t believe. This was really hard to do a research project on all his cabinet members because there’s a million of them because they kept getting fired.
We’ll. Get Kristin Nielsen. She’s probably number one on our list, most likely. Kristen you don’t think. So. Esper. Esper is number one. Why I go to this list. Here’s a concern, I think. KELLY Well. KELLY Yeah, it a concerning anecdote unrelated to the question, I think.
MILLER John Ratcliffe, I don’t know if you remember him. He was the head of the DNI when I was when I was with Steve Bannon, interviewing him during on off camera, we were talking he was talking about how I was I was getting too nervous about the Trump cabinet.
And it won’t be as quite as many people that want to put me in a gulag is, I think. And he’s like, you know, he’s like, you forget about Trump, you know, He’s like he’s like, for example, nobody mentions the name Ratcliffe. Ratcliffe’s can either be the head of DOD or the NSA.
And I was like, okay, why? And he was like, Well, because he didn’t criticize January six and because he’s got a two handicap. Trump likes to golf with him. So anyway, that’s the other thing that I didn’t like. I don’t think anybody’s ever about handicap. Yeah, right. This is the golfer.
We kind of talked about this, but I do I just give a brief follow up answer to this because it’s something we talked about. Everybody’s hoping that once people see Trump more, they remember what they hate about him as this person points out. But he’s already doing the same crazy every day.
His legal woes is on the news. It’s not clear that the media can cover him more without people tuning him out. Is it really going to change? I think so, in large part, although I think it’s going to change not just because of the media covering him. He’s going to say crazy things.
And also he has been very structured. So the other thing about Joe Biden and people seeing him, Joe Biden, if we’re honest, if we’re honest, careful, often doesn’t look great. Okay, everyone calm down. Okay? He doesn’t. He doesn’t. The I went home the other night. Tyler was asleep.
The light is out in the room. I’m kind of walking around the room trying to, like, not bump into anything. And I think to myself, I kind of feel like Joe Biden right now wasn’t intentional. It just comes into your brain. I think he’s a he. Does. Line. He looks uneasy.
I have a question for you guys about this, the media stuff. Okay. But just can I I’m sorry. Go ahead. I thought which is I think that Donald Trump took when he went on that CNN thing with Caitlin and he, like, railroaded her and everyone freaked out.
And I think part of the reason they freaked at CNN and everyone was mad at CNN for putting him on was that people really were nervous about how good he seemed like how with it and how much he was railroading her. I think like someone gave him a shot of B-12.
Like, I don’t think he’s that good all the time. I think he is going to struggle. Both of these guys are going to have to keep a campaign pace and he’s got to be in court the whole time. Like, I just I think it’s going to be hard on him
And I think it will start to show. Yeah, I agree. I think we have a couple of people close to Joe Biden, the crowd. And I think I don’t think that amphetamines are a problem for him. That’s just my opinion. I think if we want to feed him a few little,
Little uppers, little zoomers greenies be greenies, I’m a with that. Let me ask you a serious question, though, about the media stuff. So I obsess over the media’s bizarre both scientism and false equivalence. Like the was it who was it? AP who on January six for like, you know, one day,
Two remembrances, You know, I guess two questions. First of all, do we think the media will get better at this? No. But so part B, does it matter? And it doesn’t matter. You guys think it matters that they. Yeah. Do you think it would make a difference if the media.
But I think it matters on the edges. I don’t there’s the aren’t the kind of media critic pundit like the Nate Silver class of the world the contrarian kind of crowd is like you know anti Trumpers like wanted the media to cover less and Trump less in 2016.
And now you want to cover him more and like you’re not consistent and you’re just trying to blame the media for everything. And I’m like, Well, no, that makes sense. Like in 2015, the media was Donald Trump was like not a serious candidate initially. And the media made him into one
By showing his speeches like completely unfettered, constantly. And like now he’s been the president and he’s the leading contender. And like we have, people have to see him like, I didn’t like like I didn’t like the fact that that the networks didn’t show his his victory speech.
CNN cut away and I was like, yeah. I’m gonna show it. The networks didn’t show it. I was like, People need to if I can see him, people need to see him. I do think. I missed Brickman because I was on I was watching CNN. I didn’t see him come up.
Okay, from downstairs, man, Buy your whiskey. Yes, I’ll be in the back from downstairs. Overflow. What do you three say to the proposition that the GOP base is way too racist and sexist? Ever have made Haley the nominee? True? Yeah. Okay. Yeah, that’s a good one.
On that same topic, JBL, can I say. That that that is not the main reason though, that Nikki Haley is not winning. The main reason Nikki Haley is not winning is because she is a Republican from 2014 and the party is not interested in Republicans from 2014.
But five out of our seven New Hampshire focus group participants definitely said they preferred male presidents. Yeah. Which was very. Cool. Yeah. You know, we have we have a colleague who has a thesis on this, which is that Republican voters love the idea
Of having one of their own be, you know, a woman or a minority when it comes to actually voting for them like that never seems to materialize. And that is kind of true, right? Like Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, all these
You know, you get these moments of like, yeah, we re we really like that. I’m going to homeowner. Right? And then and then it comes to voting like, know we’ll take the white guy please. Trump’s VP is going to be a woman or a person of. Color.
Do you hear the people keep throwing around. I don’t personally. Like that person. I, I had a I had a I had a little reporter rumor me the Ben Carson thing. Sarah Huckabee Sanders was the other one. Will be J.D. Vance. I just I don’t think that.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Elise Stefanik I agree with you. I don’t I don’t know that Stefanik looks the parts. Okay. I just and then isn’t me saying that I’m just Donald Trump want someone that looks the part. People on Reddit got very angry with me for saying that Trump won’t pick her
Because of looks. And they told I was being look this and that. I was a terrible person for me. You were being. Hominin and you. They couldn’t even see what you were doing. You held up a picture of schmooze to me. That’s what she looks like. No, I just say also.
Perfectly lovely, normal looking person. She’s back on the outside. Hey, lovely bat. And it’s starting to show the outside. That’s my point. I know Elise Stefanik in 2012, and I thought she looked great. And I just like it’s like the lesions on Trump, like sometimes your insides are so ugly.
Occasionally it has an impact. I just don’t think Trump’s defiant. He’s very visual. He wants a clean look. Trump Pence, He wants to look nice graphic. Design of it. Stefanik All those confidence. Britt Britt was good. That was good on Trump. Brit Carson I’m interested in Ben Carson now. He did.
It’s been a while. We fucking live so long since 2016. But if I remember correctly, didn’t Trump, I could tell a story about how Ben Carson tried to stab somebody once on stage in 2016 and he was like, Ben Carson is unstable.
He tried to stab his brother back when he grew up in the ghetto. This happened, right? A gang banger and called me gang leader. He was a surgeon. His knife was he was doing surgery. You separate job. It happened. I’m not saying that Ben Carson did that.
I’m just saying that that’d be a big shift from Trump to, you know, go from gang banger to vice versa. Well, yeah. I don’t know if you’ve seen Ben Carson on Fox lately, but he’s there stumping for Trump hard. You think he won? I’ll bet you will watch.
He wouldn’t pick a black VP, but I just I just can’t can’t see. I think the innate racism is too deep. Okay. I’ve got a very serious question for you. We’ve had no policy questions. Have one policy question. How much time we have then? I have a funny one. Great. We’ve 10 minutes.
What’s your opinion on the expansion of the Supreme Court? We’ve a serious person out there. They’re not they don’t want. To know this. That person is just wants to pick a fight between me and JBL. You’re did you write this question? Did they mention, say, all SAT scores in that question?
Yeah. No, no. I’m basically against expanding the Supreme Court. I want more states. I want Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. to be states. But I’m basically I’m in favor of Supreme Court reform. I think expansions the but I think you got to term limit them a little bit.
I like the idea of of having regularized retirements. Right. So it’s like 18. Years. Or 18 years, whatever it is, so that not in this death match every election cycle where like, how many maybe this guy will get four appointments and this guy would only get just.
Like when they’re going to start appointing like 23 year olds. Yeah. Soon so that they can have 90 years on the bench. I mean, the problem is that that’s completely impractical. You just can’t get from there to here because of the way the Constitution is written on that stuff.
So, you know, one more. Yeah, democracy like it. We’re just too ossified to to make the sensible thing. How well can woke Tim is thrown out that I think that why they did steal a Supreme Court seat they stole a Supreme Court seat. They still won. Calm down.
Calm down. I’m not that woke. They stole one. All right, so what? You’re going to make it ten and it’s going to be even. Even Stevens Sure are 11. I don’t know. We can we can have Merrick Garland pick the you know, we can have a neutral party. Pick the 11th ten.
I’m open to it. I mean, they sounds like it’s going to work. They did. Steal one. They didn’t. You don’t think they stole one? They stole. I thought they did a bad faith maneuver. I don’t know that stealing is I mean. All right, all right. Same exact situation.
The same exact situation in 2016 and 2020. Yeah. No, they they did that. They did a bad thing. I, they, they operated within, within the rules. I think they stolen. But I do think Brett Kavanaugh’s been surprisingly good. I think we could use to more of a keep Brett on there.
He’s doing a nice job. Okay All right another not touchy subject Biden nomics didn’t resonate and we sure shall have. Yeah. So Morning Joe does not like Biden comics. This is a Morning Joe viewer. So what can the administration do to close the gap between people’s
Perception of the economy and the actual performance of the economy? Jonathan, last, you have any thoughts on this? I have no earthly idea, because people’s perceptions of the economy as it pertains now, let’s look at a bunch of poll data on this day. People say the economy is going great for them.
They I mean, the actual data on how they’re doing is that the economy is going great for them. They feel as though the economy is going great for them. All of the it’s bad stuff is just but the economy is bad they do this with crime rate.
All crime is down over the last year. People still think crime is increasing. They think inflation is going up. Still, I don’t. What are we do with people who are too dumb to be entrusted with democracy? I got to tell you, don’t. Clap when he does this. Do you know Sarah?
I know he’s. Back on him, but you know what? He has to. Live with me. Democracy don’t encourage. People who vote, okay? The people who are the ones that vote? That’s democracy. Hold on. I’m for that. Got it. no. I was going to win. I was just going to say before
You answered in your dickens, I think you’re gonna be on the side. I got to tell you, I was at and coffee across the street and Biden nomics has hit Market Street I got to tell you. I $12 coffee I.
Used to be able to go into Masa and get my little avocado toast with a poached egg and an iced coffee and have it be a gentleman. 1599 back in 2019. That baby cost me 22 bucks today and that is annoying. And so I think there’s. An avocado shortage.
Yeah. So I might. I might want an autocrat. Help Joe Biden lower. The price of avocado because of cost. Let’s put it in anyway. Push back on. Joe. Anyway, if you’re fancy. What could actually do? Yeah. Then So part of it there’s vibes like it’s good. The good news is it’s vibes, right?
If the actual economy is improving and people don’t feel it, that means a lot of it is vibes and you can solve with good communication strategy. And the one thing that the Biden administration is really, really bad at is having a communication strategy in which they deploy tons of. Surrogates.
The idea that Joe Biden at 90,000 years old should be the chief communications person out there giving speeches about the economy is not correct like you should have Josh SHAPIRO and Abigail Spanberger and Elissa Slotkin and Gretchen Whitmer. And everybody loves the governors right now.
Send all your governors. Why aren’t they on TV? Everybody thinks their states are doing great. They’re also kind of tired of the competition in the podcast space so we can get the pod brothers back out there. Okay. We should maybe shouldn’t they actually be working on campaigns theory?
Jen Psaki There is a shocking lack of surrogates. The only one who does it is stupid. Gavin Newsom. sorry, I forgot. I where I am. Okay, I had to. Gavin Newsom is fucking awful and I’ve had to vote for him 17 times because you had so many records.
So I had to suck it up and do it. He’s fine, but we could. But he at least he goes out there and he goes on Fox News and he argues with them and he pitches Joe Biden’s energy policy. He gets into them policy debates.
And I’m like, Don’t make me say good things about Gavin Newsom and everybody else needs to go do this, though. I agree. I’m a little worried. I’m a little worried. It’s not vibes. I just I continue to stand by. I am not telling the data. I understand the data.
I just I just I go back to my father and I’m starting to feel like my father. We all turn into our parents and it’s just like I remember being a teenager and being like, All right, dad, I’m taking my younger brother out. I’m 16, I’m going to go to McDonald’s.
And like, he gave me ten bucks and I’m like, This doesn’t work. And like, this is how much it costs to go to McDonald’s when you were 16. Right? But now it costs more. All right. And and that’s it.
But it was annoying to him for me to have to go back to him like you give me 20 bucks, actually. And then he would give it to me and be annoyed. And this is everybody’s constant life. Right. And and people are going to get used to it
Eventually, but it takes time to get used to it. And I understood what you’re saying, J.B. I’m not saying that we’re in economic collapse or in an economic crisis, but I do worry about that, that like that Joe Biden is against people’s constant annoyance
That that everything costs a little bit more than they were used to it costing. And I recognize that that does not mean the economy is awful or in Great Recession 2.0 or whatever. But which is where communications comes in. You have to have people go out there and be like Donald Trump, mismanage,
COVID, cause us to go into this economic collapse. You know who dug us out of it? Joe Biden. And things are still too expensive and we need to push costs down. But we are the ones who gave us this soft landing
And we need to keep working on it like there is a message there. This shouldn’t have anybody delivering it. We are only I believe that you guys are only saying this because we are looking at the reality as it is and trying to explain it to ourselves.
If you win the clock back and I said to you, Hey, four years from now, a million Americans are going to die from a pandemic that was mishandled. And also the price of avocado toast is going to go up a little bit. Which of these two
Things do you believe that voters will take as dispositive and will make them to choose what their how they’re going to cast their vote? Right. We all would have. Said I would know. It’s the avocado toast. Yeah. No one would you, though. I mean. Yeah. No, I don’t know. What I’m saying.
Like, I think are living in a fundamentally irrational moment. And so I agree with you that maybe, maybe better comms can help, but maybe it won’t. Maybe what helps will be something as stupid as Biden says, something that people all of a sudden flip in their heads
And decide, Yeah, he’s like a crazy old grandpa. He’s not like scary old, He’s funny old, you know, like, I just and we are at the mercy of just like, fortune. And that terrifies me. All right. Not True. There are things that they can do about it. They can run a campaign.
That’s what they’re for, and they should start it right now. I kind of agree with you. I think they should. I campaign. I think that the best thing that can happen now is that hopefully like that there’s just a lag and and people coming to terms with their own budgets
And like you pay taxes and everyone like people are kind of like, wait a minute, I thought that I was in more dire straits than I actually am because it feels like I have more outflows. Anyway, I’m hopeful there’s a lag.
We had a good podcast with Joe Smith about this. People should listen to it. I this question, so I’m going to give it to myself. I get it. Every panel I’m on and every group of people like you. When in the future do you see there being a meaningful electoral constituency,
Moderate politics on the national stage again, okay. I got this question from nine straight people in Aspen last summer. All right? And I was like the governor of this state is a free market, libertarian, Democrat, moderate, Jared Polis. The president is Joe Biden, who’s like an 80 year old
Moderate, like there is moderate coalition right now. It’s in the Democratic Party. I didn’t pick that. I don’t look like that is just reality. And like, are there a bunch of crazy lefties? Yeah. Is your board of Supervisors insane? Yeah. Is your state legislature a little bit insane? Yeah.
Gavin has to veto a tackle football ban. That’s a little fucking weird. So, yeah, they’re crazy. They’re crazy lefties out there, no doubt. But did you also overthrow the D.A. here and replace him and replace him with Brock Jenkins is a very normal central F.D.A. in liberal San Francisco.
Yeah. Did Joe Biden win a primary? Yeah. So, like, right now, maybe in four years or eight years or 12 years, the Democratic Party will go crazy, too, and we can all come back and shout about that. But that’s actually not the trajectory of the Democratic Party.
I mean, over the years since Trump has been office, the Democratic Party has acted incredibly pragmatically, and now they’ve got this incredibly strong bench. You know, it used to be that you were super progressive. Like part of being a progressive meant that you supported LGBT rights or you were, you know, very pro-choice.
But now you can be a moderate Democrat and believe those things. And there’s a whole bunch of them that are sort of economic centrists and and they’re social moderates, but they believe in sort of general progressive planks, the things that used to make somebody progressive and they can get
They can bring in all of the Red Dog Democrats, all of the people like us, even just people and just be cool. Yeah, even veterans has what, till now? There’s your boy. I wrote about that too. All right, last question. Everybody asks this. So this person has said the most simple, simple way.
What is to be done? Or more specifically, what can they do? A lot of people ask that, what can we do besides fret? Do want me to answer that? Yes. You’re the leader. Yes. So the number one thing is that and I say a version of this almost every show,
Any authoritarian playbook has a central thing that it’s trying to do, which is exhaust people. It wants people to feel exhausted. It’s the reason that Donald Trump says all the things he takes, this position in that position, while you’re trying to chase down what the truth is, you get tired.
And when the media is trying to cover him and all the insanity, it gets tired and things start to get baked in and ever. And we face this election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which maybe people haven’t cracked yet, but everybody in this room has.
And you get tired at the idea of like, we’re going to do this thing again. So the number one thing you can do is to not get exhausted and to tell all your friends not to get exhausted. And that, you know, we’re political pundits and we want to tell you the truth
About what we think. And so we’re going to say the things we think about Joe Biden. But the fact is, Joe Biden is the guy and we’re all going to have to figure out how to go help people understand that this guy is the one we all have to support.
And so don’t get tired, Look at it. And just I get very frustrated with Democrats because I think you can’t somebody said this to me the other day, it’s cheesy, but I liked it because I you know, but you can’t roll up your sleeves when you’re ring in your hands.
And so, you know, got to roll up your sleeves. All right, guys, before we go, I’ve got one final gift for you. I hope somebody is videoing Laura. You’re videoing. All right. I just received a text bag from Adam Kinzinger. I really think, Adam, for just being a hero.
He replies, All real smells like a dog with mayonnaise and armpits and human rectum. Thank you. Good to see you all. Next, go see all our bags. Yeah, we’ll see out there. Just go. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah.
42 Comments
Wait a minute… This was BEFORE the New Hampshire primary? A bit out of date, don't you think?
I think the more Nikki Haley moves away from these extreme red states the more votes she will get. My Republican friends will not vote for Trump. They will sit this one out.
Tim you n me both !!!😂🎉😂🎉🎉
“Biden” genocide? You mispronounced “Israeli”. Unsubscribed…
Trump shutdown Obama's pandemic response team and a year or so later we are surprised by a global pandemic they were setup to forestall following SARS. Trump also mismanaged the response and exacerbated the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and rebuffed global warming efforts, etc. Do people really want more of that? It's like when Bush Jr. started two unnecessary ruinous wars then got reelected only to crash the world economy as a going away present. Good grief. What would Trump do?
P.S. I am not a registered Democrat. But I will proudly be voting for President Biden❤
This might of been as good as when the gang were on cspan and that was a masterpiece.
It's like rhyming off 31 flavours of ice cream then the dude says " I'll take the vanilla"🤔
All of the misinformation relative to the economy is due to one thing, the 2017 tax cuts for the rich expire in 2025. Check out the quote from Senator Grassley.
"…Flinty, moderate, Portsmouth, citizens…" Smh
I swear, nobody taxonomizes like ole Timbo Mac Miller
Who removed the panic buttons?
The deep state IS for donald because they work for the industrialist .the corporate overlords love those unionfree banana republics
Joe Biden dug you out of an understandable economic downturn by adding about the same amount to the national debt as Trump did. Very soon the interest on the debt will be higher than the defense budget. Trump is attacked for the 7.8 trillion he added, but Biden is praised?
What's going on? What happened to clear thinking in America?
Only now do I learn that the Bulwark people have legs.
Tim there is no San Francisco City council. San Francisco has a board of Supervisors. That is because it is its own City and County. At least they are able to save money by not duplicating city and county offices on many levels. I think you should know that having lived in Oakland. San Francisco is much improved. I see it and I live in The Tenderloin- where I love it
Sarah if you took an Uber in SF that driver most likely lives in The East Bay
Wow. It's the Reich wingers who are not also Nazis.
Crazy leftism is when you don't want to give children concussions.
Sarah's laugh may just be the best laugh on this planet or any other!
I love Tim Miller’s evil side
The economy is fantastic, you just have idiots in the Both Sides Media not reporting on it. Unemployment hasn't been this low for this long in fifty years. GDP is up. Real wages are up. The S&P 500 was around 3500 on election day. It's now just a hair under 5000. +2,250.73 (83.12%) past 5 years. Russell 2000 was 1700 now 1900. The Dow Jones hit was 28000 on election day and just closed with the new all time record of 38,654.42. That is +13,548.09 (53.96%)past 5 years.
And you talk to Trump voters and they tell you we're in a depression.
And they told I was being a looksist hahahaha
As a lifelong Wisconsinite, I SO appreciate Tim’s Scott Walker campaign comments. The image of Walker sadly making ham sandwiches somewhere will remain forever in the happy place in my mind. Thank you Tim! 💙
I thought I was the only person who religiously uses “curly brackets” {} in lieu of the regular ones. So, even more love, Tim! 💙
"It cant be close, because theirs going to be violence if its close"…. There's going to be violence even if Trump wins….
I was at this event and it was a ton of fun. Three hours of JVL, Sarah, and Tim! (The one-hour PodCast, one hour of audience questions, and an hour+ of meet-and-greet in the lobby.)
California is one of the messiest states for Dems but when it comes time to vote, we do the right thing and vote moderate.
Tim, wtf. Ya, Republicans appointments for Supreme Court have sucked. The last good one was Sandra Day O'Connor. And ya, you are that woke. Just admit it. 😊
Dems were always moderate. Look at Clinton. Obama pretended to be progressive, but he governed moderately, more than Biden.
I have a question. What happens if Trump is disqualified or dies or is in prison? Is the GOP thinking it can fill the gap with Nikki Haley? Would love to hear a discussion of this. It seems like one or all three of the above could happen.
Sarah, remember your in California. We don't ring our hands. Willie didn't, Barbara didn't, Feinstein didn't, and Nancy don't!
Avocados come from Mexico, Tim. trump closing the border is really going get in the way of your avo toast, ya think?
Trump lost his own Vietnam!
You missed one of the "central casting" VP candidates… Kari Lake. And not so central casting… MTG.
My three favorite people!
Bleets! Love this new word Tim.
They were the scars of jesus dude.
I LOVE listening to JVL. I had a great time.
Three of my favorite people that I will never meet. These guys are awesome.
I think Trump will pick both – a black woman. She will be positioned against Harris. The argument will come down to – who would u want to be President if either men die in office? Harris or Trump's VP?
On the A thing, ☠, I personally am counting on a pissed off (savior) UKRAINIAN! 😊
Sarah called out Tom Nichols ("relentlessly call out Trump!" )"and she's dead RIGHT!💯