Shot at -10 Next 2 Nights Across Scot, Heavy Snow Mainly HIGH GROUND Ire/Eng/Wales Ahead of Mild!

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Last we’re cing on to the Wednesday edition of vogan European outlook before we look at the snow potential over the next 24 36 hours across Ireland England Wales and Scotland we will look first and foremost at the recent and latest model run off the GFS with regards to

The stratosphere you can see here the model is continuing to show this major Southern stratospheric warming potential at least anyway towards the middle portion of the month as we play through the loop here you can see the very strong pulse of warming rotating out of Siberia right the way across the top of

The pool displacing and almost wiping out the polar vortex here this is the mid portion of February so we will wait and see what happens because I feel as if in recent times it is a bit of a broken record with regards to the wait and see approach incidentally this is still the

Ecmwf 30day temperature and only profile here for the 6th of February through the 7th of March and it still shows colder than average across northern Europe warmer than average across the uh the South this is the mean sea level pressure anomally here you can see the blocking across the

Top negative Heights across the South here so the models certainly are doing a lot to try and um almost dismiss what I’ve been saying now for quite some time and I suppose you know you can’t ignore certain things but I had been forecasting this idea long before the

Models suggest it I tend to not listen too much to outside noise I don’t tend to look at other weather sources either yes I do watch The Met Office and I do watch the BBC but I tend to build my forecast ideas on what I think is going

To take place so like I say it is a wait and see approach when it comes to the overall situation here but if we look at the ecmwf 7day temperature anomaly chart here and we go back to the here now we’ve got that kind of almost North cold South

Warm scenario here we start to see brutal coold starting to develop back over Scandinavia once again and as we play through the increments here you can see what takes place the cold kind of holds on and pushes back warmth over the North Atlantic here and this is is very

Indicative of what I’ve said Strat warming man session you know the philosophy behind why I think a certain type of weather pattern is going to take place and maybe this here is incorrect completely but I’m scratching my head slightly at certain things because I’m thinking these models have been showing

The same thing for quite a long time the co side they Mak sense based on what the MJ was showing based in the Stratos that was seen during the middle portions of of January right at the same time that we were seeing the warmest conditions strong R over North America wge over

Over Europe here but we’ve we’ve seen that major warming taking place within the stratosphere skip forward two weeks and you’ve got a 70% chance of a cooler than average pattern for the UK Ireland and Europe here there is a pullback coming up no getting away from that

There is a warmer surge coming back up from the southwest that was a that was not anticipated last week but certainly over recent days it has been quite firmly on the charts so you would be kidding yourself on if or I would be kidding myself pH if I dismissed that

And said that wasn’t the case I gave an a detailed explanation in yesterday’s video with regards to why I still think that the pattern will turn progressively colder there is still evidence in some of these medium to long range models that suggest that we will still go to

That time frame what my argument always is and I don’t want to waste too much time talking about something I’ve already talked about in recent videos but what I’ve said already that sometimes when you get these major transitions in an upper pattern when you turn the upper height field on its head

Between the Arctic and subtropics the models sometimes have a very difficult time Distributing the shift of War and cold areas within the atmosphere and the GFS can be notorious for that it it tends to not see cold very well um so like I said we’ll wait and see what

Happens but this is the ecmwf extended and you can see that the cold continues right the way through into March early mid-march it’s showing a cold signal overall so like I say time will tell what takes place certainly over the course course of this evening we have clearing Skies light winds

Wouldn’t be surprised if we take a run atus 10 both tonight and tomorrow night under the clear skies and the colder we’ve also got snow covered ground across parts of the north as well so that will enhance the r of cooling effect during the overnight hours but

It’s all eyes on the uh Central and Southern portions of the British Isles we’ve got um cold that has been drifting South if we look at the um the overview chart here of the GFS um model and you can see the 850s here have been pushing southwards with

That colder then we’ve got the system here out over the North Atlantic that is going to push eastwards but due to some developments over the Far Western Atlantic towards the United States side of the Atlantic we have SE seen the sub of changes take place over the last 48

To 72 hours which has actually slowed down the Eastward progress of this area of of of low pressure here hence why the the warmer surge is coming when it wasn’t seen before originally the models thought the the area of low pressure would move eastwards quicker and it would essentially cold a would come

South before the system arrived then it would lift a little bit further north as the system approached then as the system then exited the playing field of the UK and Ireland we would see the cold coming back southwards once again but hold back that area of low pressure slightly to

The west southwest of the UK and you’re then pulling the warmer or holding the warmth in place longer and that is the reason for the change quite a dramatic change actually in the last 48 72 hours when you think about that this is off the GFS model and you can see here the

Cold air coming south snow charge embedded within that Northerly air flow here so it stays clear Cal and cold uh Central Scotland northwards here but you notice here as that area of low pressure then edges in there is high pressure creating a resistance over Scandinavia

As well may add but you notice here how cool the air is now over Scandinavia and Western Russia compared to what we seen during the first what six seven days of the month where we’ve had warmer than average conditions but you see here the presence of that high to the east of the

UK holding back the Eastward progress of that low pressure system and therefore the milder h in the south south and Southeastern flank then kind of rotating within the circulation of the low moving back northwards and that is going to essentially push all the cold back North

Once again near that area of L pressure doesn’t really ER doesn’t really exit the the the the UK atmosphere through the course of the weekend and hence why we’ve got a milder overall scenario setting up here then as you can see here that those areas of low pressure then

Start to cycle a little bit of Colder a around that area of high pressure but in comes the next circulation here of the Atlantic now one thing I want to add to you burn in mind was taking place we are seeing the transition now to higher

Pressure across the North and one of the contributing factors to that is you have to transfer heat from the subtropics towards the Arctic region and by doing that you’re actually seeing that taking place here warm a advection areas of low pressure over the Atlantic is Ping unusually warm a northwards into the

Arctic if we look at the 850 temperature anomaly chart here this should show very nicely indeed that warming getting lifted northwards here so by doing so we are going to then start to raise the heights over the Arctic region and this is the thinking that I have with regards

To the this large scale pattern change here it’s trying to look at the big picture here and understanding the potential of how a cold pattern could start to develop does the models see something go away from it and then see it once again that will only again only

Time will tell here but look at the amount of transport of warmer getting wafted northwards into the Artic region here that essentially is what’s going to pump the heights across the far north Greenland the Arctic sending the Arctic oscillation negative here let’s have a look and see what the latest run of the

GFS Ensemble um is shown here because this is very important so if you look at this here this is the Artic station here firmly positive it’s going negative at the moment but something has to trigger that that shift from positive to negative and and you have to then

Transport warmth out of the the subtropics towards the Arctic region to then change the overall balance of the atmosphere between north and south and what is happening I think is we’re seeing this warming pattern this removal of the cold set up at the moment and seeing this transport of warmth up into

The Arctic which will L send the Arctic oscillation negative and then as further down the road that we we wait and see whether we see a response within the atmosphere but uh yeah uh like I said I’m I’m constantly trying to show you the big broad picture trying to show you

The reality the pattern if something is not happening I will throw the to in and say I was incorrect with that one and uh we will we will simply wait and see but there is certainly a warming surge coming up late this week into the weekend here that was not originally

Seen and I’ve explained already why those changes taking place so let’s have a look at the the UK view here and see the snow potential over the next 24 hours do I think it’s going to be a big snow event for the Midlands and Northern England I think High Ground we’ve got 10

15 20 possibly 25 cm of snow possible so this is what happens here we’ve got area of high pressure over the northern half of the UK with snow covered ground but have a chance of seeing – 6 – 7- 8 locally close to minus 10 both tonight

And tomorrow night then as that moisture and Mild a comes in on the south and Southeastern flank the low we’ve got this warm moving North coinciding with the the cold air that has been kind of developing over the Midlands over the heart of England and Wales over the last

24 or so hours this means that precipitation changes over to to snowfall here heavy rainfall we could see an inch or two of rain across the far south of England here so that will pose issues with regards to flooding but as that moisture then bumps into the colder air from about Birmingham north

Of Birmingham up through Manchester greater Liverpool leads leads Bradford Huddersfield for example m62 trans panine routes especially across the South panins we could have some very tricky travel conditions indeed Northern irand also suceptible to some fairly heavy snowfall as well at the coast I think it will fall as rain

Or SLE I think Inland areas near sea level will have a chance at seeing some accumulations but it might be a bit of a hit and miss at low levels even in Inland areas but I think over higher ground there’s a greater chance at seeing something um something fairly substantial then as you

Can see here the snow then and band of precipitation then lifts northwards here but there is warmer air getting lifted northwards so therefore this will be a transient transient snow event across the British ises here we will see more significant snow potentially across the highlands so more tricky travel

Conditions like we’ve seen during the overnight and through the course of today across the far north and then really it’s a a messy low pressure dominated pattern beyond that well we’ll look at that in the coming days here let’s have a quick look at the snowfall projections here seen by the

GFS so if we play through the loop here some snow cover on the on the far north of the UK D that the Northerly flow then we’ve got some snow projected across parts of the Republic of Ireland Northern Glen chain past high elevations the M Mountains for example um we we’ll

Probably see a few like a you know several centimeters of snow out of this here North Wales again High Ground the Peak District the South and Central penines anywhere from north of Birmingham with any kind of elevation we may see snow covered roads during the overnight through tonight parts of the

Higher elevations of the the m6 for example may have issues m73 uh or should I say m74 actually but you notice here that the snow cover then lifts northwards here and we lose the snow cover further south because of that warmer a getting lifted North but we uh

We could see a relatively decent snow event across high elevations of northern England Southern and Central Scotland the central Highlands during the next 24 to 48 hours here so that’s it for today I think I’ve waffled on long enough like And subscribe you know the drill by now

And I’ll see you again hopefully tomorrow with more bye for now