My long-awaited 2024 Ukraine update. It’s not just Ukraine at stake anymore, but also the international rules-based world order. Also if you’re American, please vote Joe Biden.
This is a near-instant public release, with just a couple-hour-long early access for Patrons and Members. This is due to the nature of the video, the information can become obsolete, new events can occur, and so on.
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Andrew Perpetua’s Ukraine map: https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/
The commentators / analysts you should follow:
Tweets by Tatarigami_UA
Tweets by TheStudyofWar
Tweets by KofmanMichael
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https://www.youtube.com/@UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q
Some sources I’ve used, which you might find interesting:
https://dgap.org/system/files/article_pdfs/DGAP%20Analysis_No-6_December-20_19pp_0.pdf
Covert Cabal’s videos:
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— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 3, 2024
Rishi Sunak will visit Kyiv today as he announces a new package of military aid.
Officials said the £2.5bn package will provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, air defence, artillery ammunition and maritime security. https://t.co/Pk4w2UTrWK pic.twitter.com/wC8y5wUp30— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 12, 2024
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/Media/Images/News_Press_Releases/2023/mi2023-12-07_Aid-over-time-v11-multi-year-EN.svg
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-top-general-criticizes-presidents-firing-recruitment-chiefs-media-2023-12-18/
https://kyivindependent.com/poll-74-of-ukrainians-against-territorial-concessions/
https://www.politico.eu/article/defense-ukraine-mobilization-bill-parliament-kyiv-balance-justice-security-war-economic-survival-russia-putin-zelenskyy/
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-10-2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
https://444.hu/2024/01/02/az-orosz-rendorseg-osszefogdosta-a-szentpetervaron-szilveszterezo-bevandorlokat-hogy-besorozzak-oket-a-hadseregbe
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/leopard-panzer-defekt-rheinmetall-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/thierry-breton-edip-sending-1-million-shells-to-ukraine/
2024 will be a decisive pivotal year in the war in Ukraine which in my opinion will not only decide the outcome of the war but also whether the current rules-based world order Will Survive following the failed Ukrainian summer counter offensive Western 8 has visibly declined what’s worse Putin sympathizers
In the US and the EU the Republican party and the Hungarian government are delaying two key extremely important eight packages in some sense we are at the lowest point however there is reason to believe that this is a temporary State of Affairs and that the C bridge
Will be dropped in 2024 how EX ex L well this video is here to explain the topics I’ll be covering are the following the battlefield situation meaning where each side is militarily and what’s happening along the front line the political situation in Russia Ukraine and the West
In terms of the war the goals and potential end games of each side and the risks they face then I will briefly talk about the idea of Western Game Changer Tech I’ll cover the potential special decommissioning operation of the catch bridge and the current prognosis as to
How the war might end finally I’ll recommend channels not to follow for war updates and channels that are worth following so let’s Dive In A lot has been said about who’s winning the war in Ukraine Russia took over a street west of donet while obviously Russia is making progress and winning the war
Ukraine threw some soldiers over to nipro well obviously ukrainians are just days away from a massive lending operation where they’ll take back Crimea in reality the war has bed down with neither side able to achieve breakthrough some have characterized this as a Ukrainian defeat and or Russian Victory but that’s a
Misunderstanding of the situation as a reminder of how we got here the first big Russian Blitz Creek Was Defeated ukrainians beat Russians out of Kev har and hero and then helped solve the overcrowding problem in the Russian prison system by slowly pulling out of bakot then a Ukrainian counter offensive
Followed in the South which was halted by the Russians before it could achieve any major breakthroughs in the meantime visually confirmed Russian Hardware losses stand at around 14,000 and Russian Manpower losses are between 315 and 360,000 according to Vladimir Putin Russia currently holds around 18% of Ukrainian territory and is importing
Shells possibly Rockets of questionable quality from North Korea so any reports about the supposed Russian Victory or Ukrainian defeat should be considered with this context in mind Russians in the meantime are conducting large offensives around abka which consists of commanders yoloing their troops into Ukrainian lines the only noteworthy
Russian success recently was the Takeover of Maringa west of donet a settlement that has been contested for a decade and which is just a patch of rubble at this point the General Dynamic now seems to be ukrainians digging in and defending while Russians Reen their vad are offensive across multiple
Locations the other hot location outside of abka being the Northeast edge of hara blast and in one of these areas based on videos that surfaced on the 13th of January apparently Ukrainian Bradley managed to take out a Russian t90m tank with its 25 mm Bushmaster AO Cannon you
Can find the video via search I want to avoid showing combat footage since that’s a sure way to get demonetized all right so who’s doing quote unquote better when comparing the two armies ukrainians seem to be better equipped and have higher Morale on average and they do have a technological Edge in
Terms of Hardware Russians on the other hand compensate for horse equipment by having numerical superiority in pretty much everything importantly they have an absolute share superiority and have an asymmetrical advantage in terms of long range Rockets when it comes to Russian Manpower though the Ukrainian counter offensive did degrade them quite a lot
In terms of vehicles Russia has more but they still rely heavily on stock piles according to covert cabal who bought satellite images and simply counted the number of vehicles Russia has stored every year the number of Russian tanks in storage sinks by 1,200 with their latest amount from October 2023 being
3,500 good tanks without obvious signs of damage and 2,000 additional tanks that obviously need repairs in terms of bmps and other fighting Vehicles not including tanks and artillery Russia had 3,677 BMP stored in Depot and 5,240 similar Vehicles such as btrs mtbs and so on so that’s around 9,000 in total
This is once again according to cover cabal as of January 2024 orex lists around 5,000 of such Vehicles lost after 2 years of war which translates to about 2,500 per year in terms of artillery based on Covert cabal’s July 2023 numbers Russia had 7,500 total artillery in storage and 4,400 self-propelled guns
And they’re pulling 3,000 toad artillery pieces from Storage per year and about 300 self-propelled guns so on all these fronts we can say that Russia has about 2 to three years left before their current storage is run out with this information I’d like to help dispel the
Myth that Russia can just keep up this war indefinitely unless they find a way to multiply their new production time is not on their side contrary to what many commentators would want you to believe additionally there’s a growing lack of workers in the Russian economy which
I’ll discuss in a bit and now let’s look at the political layout of the Ukraine war in the west attitudes towards Ukraine seem to have cooled somewhat a good example is Joe Biden shifting from as long as it takes to as long as we can when referring to supporting Ukraine in
The meantime the isolationist authoritarian friendly far right is gaining prominence across the west and those movements are almost universally pro- Russian the Ukrainian summer counter offensive failure has only emboldened those actors 2024 also brings its own risks with the US elections if Donald Trump wins the election and
Starts connecting an autocracy the US military will inevitably coup him and temporarily take control of the government this will be rather disruptive in terms of Aid to Ukraine and might mean a multiple month halt in supplies while a provisional government sorts itself out but us support is not
The only one of course recently Britain announced a 2.5 billion pound Aid package for example containing long-range missiles air defense or ter ammunition and Maritime security put a pin in that first one especially the longrange missiles because they’ll be relevant soon despite this Aid the past
Months have been the lowest in terms of Aid provided to Ukraine the failure of the summer counter offensive therefore risks becoming a self fulfilling prophecy where due to a lack of Battlefield success there is less political will to provide Aid therefore Ukraine gets less Aid therefore they cannot achieve Battlefield success
Therefore there is less Aid this should change however when hopefully EU and US Aid packages get approved in the coming weeks but Pro Russian Republicans are nonetheless a worrying Trend who represent a new authoritarian movement on the American right these people are no longer the usual neoconservatives who
A few weeks ago even criticized Biden for not doing enough for Ukraine these new Republicans the mega variety that are slowly taking over the party are over overtly sympathizing with faride dictators across the globe if Trump gets elected in 2024 these people are expected to run a mock hopefully that
Won’t happen because a US military coup against an authoritarian Mega government would complicate things in terms of Ukraine so this is the political situation in the west now let’s look at Ukraine there is an increasingly visible conflict between the civilian and Military leaderships between zalinski and Zi as the war stopped being an
Existential threat and became a question of do we lose 20% of our territory or not political maneuvering is back in the game I’ve read reports about zinski skipping the chain of command and communicating with Ukrainian Frontline officers directly without zines knowledge in addition the political leadership had the brilliant idea of
Firing all regional recruitment officers after one of them got caught in a corruption Scandal this inevitably caused Ukrainian recruitment numbers to tank temporarily at a time when Ukraine sorely needs fresh troops zelinsky’s office seems to be worried about Z’s popularity and how it might translate to him becoming a political opponent to
Them once the war is over in other words now that the Mortal danger is over politics continues as usual but before any anyone would Panic this doesn’t hamper the Ukrainian war effort that much so far it’s in the nuisance category where it hopefully remains otherwise as the war drags on the first
Discussions are happening across Ukrainian Society about how long the war should go on whether they should concede at least some territory in exchange for peace the percentage of those who do not want concessions is still high around 74% but those willing to accept conceding territory have risen from 10%
In May 2023 to 19% in December 2023 and before anyone would judge people for thinking that try losing a friend for father or husband in the war or live for 2 years with the fear of losing them which can basically happen at any moment another topical issue in Ukraine is
Mobilization which seems to be relatively unpopular understandably so there is a lack of Manpower in part because of the aformentioned firing of all regional recruitment officers there was also a controversial mobilization Bill submitted which was deemed poorly written and unjust the bill has been withdrawn since then and a better one is
In the works this is an advantage of democracy bad decisions can be criticized and forced to be reconsidered by the people in the meantime the Ukrainian Ian economy is maintained by Western in particular EU funds and despite Victor orban’s threats of derailing support for Ukraine the situation is not so straightforward
Multiple member states took issue with different aspects of the funding approach so consensus was needed to proceed now that this seems mostly done Ukraine will get monetary Aid and Victor Orban will be S Steed if needed through complicated legal processes so despite all the media hype about Orban and his
Obstructionism he really doesn’t amount to more than an annoyance at this moment now let’s take a look at Russia their political and economic situation the Russian political system is more stable than ever it’s safe to say that Russia is under the complete control of the government Putin increasingly builds his
Legitimacy on the war trying to draw a parallel between the war against the Nazi invasion of Russia they aren’t particularly bothered by the fact that back then Nazi Germany attacked them while now they are the Invaders Russian Society seems to continue to support Putin and is generally accepting of the
War according to a leveled up all in October 2023 20% of Russians supported the war 29% rather supported it 35% rather opposed and 15% opposed let’s say near 50-50 ratio but we should also consider that Putin’s current approval rating is at 83% the tolerance threshold of Russian Society seems to be General
Mobilization which puin seeks to avoid at all costs so basically people will tolerate the current state of affairs as long as they themselves don’t get drafted Russia doesn’t need a new wave of mobilization for now as there are enough volunteers due to financial incentives there are also other hidden
Incentives such as families of the diseased getting a brand new Lada if your husband is violent abusive and so on here’s the chance to get rid of him and get a new car in the process so once again the population seems to be largely on board with or tolerant of the war as
Long as it doesn’t affect them that much otherwise Russia has done a decent job converting into a wartime economy which is quite stable for the time being I’ve seen estimates of it being able to stay afloat for another two to three years boring unforeseen factors now let’s move
On to more interesting stuff namely the potential endgame scenarios of the war as I’ve said this are is pivotal in determining to War’s outcome so let’s look at the goals of each side the original Russian goal was the capture and subjugation of Ukraine and the end of the pro Western Ukrainian State this
Has obviously failed and aside from public statements the Russian leadership isn’t seriously counting on it the current revised goal is likely either a frozen conflict which prevents Ukraine from joining the EU or NATO or a ceasefire both allowing Russia to rebuild its Army and try again the
Ukrainian goal was and still is the complete liberation of all occupied territories including Crimea at the moment the chances of disappear remote and there are the affir conversations within Ukrainian Society whether these goals should be scaled back in exchange for peace but can there be peace between Russia and Ukraine currently nobody
Seems interested in it and for good reason you don’t give up the fight if you think you’re winning or if you think you can’t afford to lose both SS represent a mixture of these two lines of thinking recently there was an interesting article in the New York Times however alleging that Russian
Officials are starting to broach the topic of ceasefire in secret the article writes that a similar thing happened in the fall of 2022 after ukrainians kicked the Russians out of the hcave region the idea then was that Putin would be satisfied with territories heal at that
Time but that he won’t concede any of it are these quiet gestures meaningful or are they just the usual Bluff to throw us off I believe they are real but so far they should not be taken that seriously Beyond taking a mental note it’s true that Putin is very risk ofs
And that the war being bogged down includes Russians as well he also knows that he’s not taking Ukraine due to Western support even if it has been flagging recently at this point to what end is the Russian army fighting in Ukraine storages are emptying out at a worrying rate heavy equipment losses are
Catastrophic and even if they did take over Ukraine somehow they don’t have the manpower to fight the anoing Insurgency with this in mind it’s plausible that the Russian leadership would lowkey start talking about negotiations to bring up the idea of outlining a plan for a ceasefire in the midterm maybe
It’s a very basic strategy of hedging your bets in advance that being said currently Ukraine not liberating the entirety of its territory looks more likely than not I’d like to stress that currently part things can and do change there is a certain level of War fatigue
In the west and Ukraine plus there is the looming threat of the 2024 us elections as us support to Ukraine seems to correlate with Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities with that in mind let’s take a look at the PO potential endings of the Ukraine war as I said in the beginning
2024 will likely decide not just the outcome of the war but whether the rules-based world order survives or not if a country can start a war of territorial conquest and get away with it then others can do it as well that would mean the Advent of a new world
Order based on might makes right where strong Nations can do whatever they please as long as nobody can stop them in practice this would mean an era of constant smaller Regional Wars possibly between nuclear Nations so now let’s look at the potential outcomes of the Ukraine war the perfect outcome is of
Course Ukraine beating Russia with Western help restoring control over the entirety of its territory opening the door to EU and NATO membership the less perfect outcome is Ukraine conceding some territory but nonetheless joins the EU and NATO cementing the peace a subpar outcome would be Ukrainian territorial concessions that aren’t followed with EU
Or NATO memberships instead there would only be a collection of bilateral agreements which Russia may or may not respect wink wink a bad outcome would be the War ending with a peace agreement but without any security agreements or EU membership at that point another Russian invasion would just be a matter
Of time where Russ Russia would use the next few peaceful years to reorganize and reconstitute its Army getting ready for round two a very bad outcome would be if there wasn’t even a peace agreement if the war simply devolved into a frozen conflict preventing Ukraine from rebuilding itself counting
The days till the next inevitable Russian invasion and finally there is the catastrophic scenario in that Trump gets elected in 2024 without anyone stopping him a far right authoritarian isolationist US Government pulls out of NATO essentially collapsing it and leaves Ukraine to its own devices due to
The lack of Aid ukrainians are gradually pushed back until the conflict becomes Frozen with large Russian territorial gains at that point the rules-based world order is over as there is no one left to uphold it further millions of Ukrainian refugees stream into Europe and Russia starts to gear up for the
Next round but this time Moldova and the baltics are also on the list at that point in my opinion we would almost certainly see an attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan as well which of these outcomes will come true we’ll know more at the end of the year both Russia
And Ukraine face risks along the way though which will play a large part in determining the outcome for ukrainians the risks are manow power issues low Western support in the form of small Aid packages and lack of military industrial output the massive Russian Terror bombings against civilian infrastructure
And the rise of the far right authoritarian Pro Russian populists such as G fielders Victor Orban and the afd in Germany Russian risks on the other hand include limited stockpiles and the increasing lack of good Hardware also Manpower issues in the economy namely the millions missing from the labor
Market with that said what about Western gamechanging Tech Ukrainian Pilots are already training on f-16s they have M1 Abrams Tanks leopards and so on such Hardware does help a lot especially f-16s however I wouldn’t view them as Wonder Weapons just like how Russian isander or kinel missiles didn’t
Magically win the war for them they only make things more difficult for the enemy there are also issues with Ukrainian equipment namely the leopard tanks which have a low operational Readiness from what I could gather it’s the lack of spare parts the fact that the tanks need
To be repaired in Lithuania and that Ukrainian mechanics weren’t properly trained to maintain them so far the trend with German tanks and self-propelled guns seems to be it works great until it doesn’t a common issue seems to be be overuse and the fact that NATO Hardware isn’t quite configured for
This type of large scale attritional War Ukraine seems to have or had access to atams the Army tactical missile system namely a small batch the US sent them which was used to nail a Russian Forward Air Base damaging or destroying multiple Russian helicopters but we haven’t had information about additional deliveries
Since then not to mention ukrainians received the oldest possible variant the M39 block one with anti-personal bomblets that has half the range 165 km compared to the most modern atcham of ourland on a personal note I find this rather infuriating Israel can level the Gaza Strip with the most modern American
Weapons while Ukraine defending itself against an imperialist invasion gets only 30-year-old leftovers slated for decommissioning however Ukraine also received Storm Shadow missiles from the UK which aren very useful as we’ll soon see game changers aside what does help Ukraine is not Wonder Weapons but the sheer mproduction of shells mortar or
Artillery in this area thankfully there is progress aside from efforts to revive Ukraine’s domestic defense industry there are plans in the EU for a 100 billion Euro defense fund and to ramp up shell production to 1 million per year this progress has hit political snaks so far many countries are hesitant to pour
Money into defense but we’ll know more after the February EU Summit so this is the current situation the front lines are mostly static Ukraine is having issues with Manpower and the unpopularity of conscription Western support is low for the time being and they’re suffering from everpresent Amo
Shortages on the Russian side of things conscription is also unpopular and there are also Manpower issues but on the economy side with Millions missing from the labor market additional Russian problems include the quickly of their Hardware stocks which unlike shells cannot be produced that fast or that
Quickly there is also the edit problem of Crimea with that let’s talk about the car Bridge as promised in the beginning you might have seen the news about Ukraine destroying the noo cheras aacha class Landing ship that’s the third destroyed large Landing ship with two more damage in addition to three other
Damaged or destroyed smaller Landing ships now why would Ukraine focus on such ships like the noo cheras expanding valuable and rare Storm Shadow missiles against it well suppose something happens to the catch Bridge whereby it’s no longer usable by Road or rail if that important link is cut Crimea and the
Russian troops in the herone region need to be supplied somehow so how do you move supplies across the car state without a bridge large Landing ships which Ukraine seems to be targeting it’s not hard to see how such strikes could be a potential Prelude to the C Bridge
Being dropped the US has been hesitant to supply long-range attam missiles because they’re worried Ukraine would use them against targets inside official Russian territory but the Carriage Bridge is not official Russian territory so suppose the Americans deliver just a handful of atams missiles for a very specific mission in addition Ukraine has
Its own domestically produced ballistic missile theim 2 which has been in development for a while and there has been speculation about Ukraine having already used or rather tested one-on Russian Targets in the form of a strike on the saki Airbase in Crimea in August 2022 220 km away from the front line at
That point Ukraine did not have any of the western longrange missiles a Ukrainian official stated after the strike that they used a device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacturer so I personally do not rule out a special decommissioning operation of the CCH bridge in 2024 this this would somewhat complicate the situation for Russians
Aside from the global PR catastrophe having to manually Supply Crimea would siphon away precious logistical resources not to mention Russian positions in and around the herone region would get weaker and now you also need to supply Russian civilians in Crimea as well this would of course help reinvigorate support for Ukraine and
Would give the Ukrainian government a much stronger hand in any future negotiations but for now this is a speculation well-informed speculation but still speculation for the time being instead of daydreaming about the catch Bridge what you can do is vote for pro Ukrainian politicians if you have the
Chance or donate to trusted fundraisers for example for fpv drones but it’s also important to stay informed about the whole situation unfortunately aside from trustworthy sources many grifter have also attached themselves to the Ukraine war spreading misinformation for engagement and end Revenue so here are some of the most notorious accounts that
You should avoid if you want accurate coverage vagr 24 is a channel you should immediately unfollow this page is a hub for sloppy journalism and misinformation their latest stunt was spreading unsubstantiated rumors about get us some of being dead another terrible Source you should avoid is Chuck fer whose maps
Are more military fanfiction than reality and the worst of the bunch is yushko who single-handedly started a global disinformation cycle about Russia being hours away of starting a nuclear war if you want to follow trustworthy sources instead here are some of my recommendations tatarigami UAA is a great source with accurate and honest
Commentary who isn’t afraid to point out issues within the Ukrainian military and political system The Institute for the study of war is of course a go-to for the battlefield updates Michael Koffman the god of Ukraine war analysis is also a must follow I also recommend Andrew perpetua and his very detailed verified
And geolocated map at map. ukr Daily update.com there is also Rob Lee who brings you accurate and verified local level updates and events finally on YouTube there is perun who I’m sure many of you already follow his videos about the Ukraine war are what this video
Aspires to be when it grows up in closing 2024 will be quite a year for both Ukraine and the international World Order much will depend on whether Western shell production will keep up what the outcome of the US election will be a potential strike against the catch
Bridge and so on and if you’re worried about the current situation don’t be the battlefield has more or less stabilized and Ukraine is bound to get more support hopefully in the short term if you’d like to worry nonetheless I recommend starting on the 5th of November this year once the US presidential election
Kicks off in the meantime keep yourself informed vote for pro Ukraine politicians and donate to various trusted Pro Ukraine fundraisers if you can and or sign up for my patreon thank you for watching and I’ll be seeing you next time
31 Comments
My comments about the US military coup against a Trump presidency were only half-joking. I recommend everyone to read up on Republicans' "Project 2025". That document, outlining what they'll do after they win, contains gems such as ending the separation of church and state, ending the DOJ's independence, expanding presidential powers, adopting Christian nationalism, and basically dismantling the bureaucratic state. It's a terrifying document if one realizes what they're actually reading.
The US military is not MAGA-friendly. In fact, MAGA folks criticize it for being "too woke" more and more. If the MAGA group indeed tries to demolish the US political system in its current form, to replace it with a far-right, Christian nationalist autocracy, I predict the US military would intervene. This is IF Trump gets elected, and IF he manages to do what the Republican party say they want to do.
I get that such things are hard to imagine for many Americans. An active war for territorial conquest in Europe was just as hard to imagine for Europeans before February 2022.
The rules based world order surviving? Haha! Nope! You're on Mr. Bone's Wild Ride.
This video sounds like AI made fast forwarded version of Perun. Visual style is straight copy from him and pacing is just very off
Let's be honest: *there has never been a ' ruled-based world order '*. This is just complete propaganda.
Since the end of WW2 when the current world order system was established, what happened is that the West totally ignored its own forced rules and started invading and doing whatever they wanted around the globe. The difference now is that non-western nations are doing it and the West scared… Boo hoo
What we really had and is in decay is the *Western hegemonic world order". That's all. For us in the third world, it's all the same, just with other oakhrs back in the game.
The only acceptable negation with Russia, is the un-aliving of Putin
Perun would be proud with some of that layout
The military taking over from Trump really depends on how exactly Trump tries to stay in power at the end of his notional second term, or if he does something egregiously outside his authority under the constitution. The people in the military take an oath to uphold the constitution, and under the constitution they are bound to follow (legal) orders from the president. And even supposing Trump was ripping up the constitution, there wouldn't be unanimous support for acting against him… There would be a lot of bloodshed within the military before it could take concerted action in that circumstance. And the question of continuity in US foreign military aid would be pretty much a non-starter
Military industrial complex goes brrrr
On Israel getting the “most modern US weapons”
1: they build most of those locally, and either sell them back to the US or license out production.
2: if Israel WAS using order Vietnam-era weapon systems, you’d see what “leveling Gaza” really means. Guided munitions such as small-diameter JDAM munitions allow Israel to target Hamas instead of the entire area.
This was a good video, but it seriously undermines your validity when you casually go on tangents with extreme political opinions. If you feel that’s something important to cover, make a whole video about it. But when you just kinda insert if trump gets elected the us democracy will end, military coup, nationalist Christian trump authoritarian state, he will destroy Nato, he is the embodiment of everything bad, he is the absolute worst case scenario; you sound like one of those crazy extremist but your just being extreme the other way. You just had to due to trumps less enthusiastic attitude towards Ukraine the us funding would significantly decrease, and then you don’t sound crazy.
This is super informative but… I still haven't heard an explanation as to why europeans should give a shit about Ukraine?
I mean I have nothing against them but I have nothing against russian either, and russians have oil and gas.
I know for eastern europeans like you there still is the trauma of the soviet invasion, but you have to admit the goal of Putin is to have Ukraine as a buffer state, he knows he cannot go beyond.
The line is slowly but surely cracking. Ukraine will cease to exist. The proof I need is the lack of footage from the Russian front-line March-June. Russian intel deemed the Ukrainian summer-fall-spring counter offensive as a priority and that is was not easy to contain. However, they prepared for it and foiled it, convincingly. The behaviour and comments of collective west leaders, post this event is indicative that they are out of ideas of how to proceed with operation regime change Moscow, at least any time soon.
As far as the weapons production comparison between Russia and the collective west is concerned, any way you cut it Russians produce cheaper, Russians produce more and faster and frankly, they lack of quality of Russian weapons is greatly overstated.
Lastly, Adams figures concerning losses are completely unfounded. He said, "according to Vladimir Putin". No, not really. Both Russians and Ukrainians jealously guard these figures, decades will pass before they are known. Russia is not in any kind of war economy, Russian economy does however run hot, with extremely low unemployment they are in need of workers which they are sourcing in eastern Europe and central Asia.
idk why people think that trump getting elected means the end of the world, its the usa, dosent metter which prezident there is everyithng there stays the same
Israel is a Major Non-NATO Ally. Ukraine is not. Don’t fucking bring the Gaza war up if you don’t know what you’re talking about.
You can make the argument that Ukraine SHOULD be a MNNA and I make that argument. Ukraine should be. But the reality is that Ukraine doesn’t have that status and as a result all the perks that come with it.
Thank you for the update!
It seems Adam is channeling Perun on this one.
Great video.
Details are slightly outdated. The air/sea war is taking priority over destroying the Kerch bridge. I suspect new efforts to destroy the bridge will start soon/later in the year.
2024 will not be the decider of the war, it will be 2025 ending. The collective efforts of West needs economic backing
The West will always betray you. 🤗
8:55 Humble comments about Russian layout:
Social surveys don’t tell truth: people are afraid to speak an opinion different from the government agenda.
So approval rate is fake too.
There is not enough of volunteers— the state forces prisoners to join the army. For ordinary soldiers there is no any rotation due to the lack of people and it becomes a problem.
Without trying to make a 1:1 analogy. Bridging the differences in terms of armies, terrain and strategies and era, the conflict is increasingly becoming a Vietnamification of the war in terms of support and supplies. We all know that resistance against an invader cannot occur without support in an isolationist environment. Logic, nobody needs a PhD in strategy and a master's degree from RAND Corp to get to this lol.
Vietnamese resistance in their war was success in keeping the supply open and maintaining, if not increasing, the volume served by their partners, his entire country had to be at the service of this. This is where the second battle front is. Russian in terms of propaganda and intoxication, i think we all know and see weekly, how the propaganda and intoxication of the political debate in the United States is fueled by certain 'ideological' environments characterized by certain beings. They are acidifying very strong political propaganda to cut or reduce support for Ukraine, the attack is open and also loaded with racist statements of all kinds. The level of 'debate' displayed by the American alt-right is terrible and infinitely disgusting and shameful. And every month that passes it gets worse, at the same rate that Russia fails in its attempt at conquest.
If Trump is elected NATO doesn't collapse. France and Germany become leaders of the free world and the US becomes a vary large but irrelevant side-note to history.
Excellent video.
William Spaniel?
Mentioning putin's aproval rating seems off, considering there is no free speach in russia, and that saying anything bad about whatever is happening right now lands you in jail.
The view count confirms: tell people what they want to hear and they love you. Tell them the truth however…
“Rules based world order” ??? When was that??? 😂😂😂
Looking at YOU, USA!!!
The counter offensive was not lost by Ukraine. It was lost by the western world.
I rarely disagree with Adam, but this one video is one of them. The Ukrainian-Russian conflict is a result of US's will to include Ukraine into NATO. Also, the current Ukrainian government is not a simple democratic champion of the people. American cooperations (such as Blackrock) have the hands all over the Ukrainian government and its officials in their pockets. We can already foresee Ukraine, after its current reconstruction arrangement, will be a car centric American-like society in-which the infrastructure doesn't make sense.
Perhaps being as ignorant as I am, I don't feel Ukraine joining NATO and EU would be a positive thing, in the sense that NATO and Russian sharing borders is definitely not a perfect global scenario. In my very humble opinion, the perfect scenario would be Ukraine remaining a neutral country, especially militarily, but participating in the EEA one way or the other. The US is as much, if not more, responsible for this war as Russia.
Furthermore, the real reason of the fading American support to Ukraine is obviously that they now have a genocide to fund. Ukraine was already doomed when US first laid eyes on it as the battleground for its proxy war against Russia.
Trump winning the election is the worst case for Ukraine? Lol. Also being MAGA and focusing on it's own country = Putin supporter? Wtf? The democrats had their time to screw around enough. Time to fix all the problems when Trump comes and will come back. Cry more lmao