Reflecting on Ukraine: NATO’s Tough Lessons

Hello Georgijs. During the American revolution at the start, soldiers on each side would form a firing line and then take turns killing each other with their muskets standing in the open. Then, the revolutionaries of the 13 colonies took some lessons from the natives. The term I remember from grade school was Indian fighting (there was a slur used in place of Indian) King George would call the revolutionaries cowards who were emulating the "savages" as he got his ass kicked until the revolutionaries won. That tactical change was an inflection point in warfare I think.
The next inflection would be to develop firearms to shoot led faster and longer, in both capacity of the weapon and in range. We are at the point that ground weapons can deliver ammo from many miles away and from much greater heights than ever before. So it's about time warfare had this next inflection point. Drone warfare 3.0 and it's here to stay and will be perfected to a level that one will have to see it to believe it in my opinion.

Electronic warfare is really out there in it's capabilities now and what R & D is working on. Mastering cheap anti radar coatings and interference blocking will be available soon. One thing I read said some of the things have a self destruct and will not only obliterate it's self, but take out personal when destroying it's self. Once the marriage of Drones and the electronic warfare is perfected the impossible becomes the norm. Of course these things I read from on line warfare web sites, from history and general information videos. I'm absolutely certain you are up to speed on this stuff far more than me.

The problem is always the same. Everything the "good guys" know and have, the "bad guys" will eventually have in some version. Because that is the case I can imagine now terrorist dropping homemade pipe-bombs from Drones to control people in a market place using murder and fear. Police agencies in countries are trying out spy drones that look like insects. So, I think it won't be long before we all live in a world that will be total surveillance societies much worse than we do now. People in power using fear and preaching us vs them ends with "I know it's unconstitutional or against the law to do it, but think of the children." That's how not much built for the battlefield stays on the battlefield.
Microwave and sound weapons developed for and tested in Iraq have been used by American police to control crowds where I live along with so many other weapons developed for and tested at the laboratory known as Iraq. G W Bush said all of those weapons would never be used on civilians. How did that work out?

When at war, everything is on the table of course and I say give Ukraine everything. The thing to remember is government get people elected into them who then decide who the enemy is next and why, so stopping police forces from having military grade weapons is crucial. Trump in my country is a perfect example of a "leader" who would/has/will deploy deadly weapons on us citizens just like G W Bush did while calling them nonlethal and get away with it in my opinion. I know a lot of this is out of the scope of the conversation, but I felt the need to enter into this conversation the law of unintended consequences. Thanks Georgijs. Slava Ukrayini!

Very well said Georgi. I believe the unholy alliance of terror loose in the world will have to be dealt with on a larger scale eventually. I sincerely hope countries are preparing. Ukraine has set a high bar of performance that deserves utmost respect. 🇨🇦🇺🇦

Armies prepare to fight their last war, rather than their next war

I'm not too worried about most of our tactical doctrine. My observations/concerns have to do with thin personel resources (which you mentioned), insufficient artillery, insufficient ammunition stockpiles, the expense and complexity of ammunition and weapons systems which makes it very difficult to ramp up for war. If we lose an aircraft carrier, we can't wait 10 years for a replacement. We can't rely on launchers with 16 missles and perhaps a reload of 16 more when we can be inundated with hundreds of drones and cruise missiles at one time. We need to insure we have plenty of engineering equipment for mine clearing and bridging. We don't have enough if we suddenly had to increase our force size 5 fold. We have to have cost effective solutions that can be mass produced quickly.

A smart man learns from their mistakes. A wise man learns from the mistakes of others.

Oh man. First yes, if you only see things from a Ukrainian point of view it must look that way. From our point of view, the war going on in Ukraine is a throwback to how wars were fought in the 1930's. directly from 1917 and the first world war. Even the second world war was different.
The main lesson the Western armies have learned from the Ukrainian conflict is that they need greater ordinance stocks. And that drones, which the western armies suspected, might play a more pivotal role but that also is a function of this older style of warfare. The US in particular have been working on drone tech for a couple of decades now and have many no one has seen.
You can't blame the brave and courageous Ukrainians as they fight with what they've got. They only knew old-fashioned soviet doctrines before this war and have adjusted as fast as they can. Ukraine does not have the more modern western weapons and will not receive current western battlefield weapons as the US is gearing up for its own potential conflict and the Europeans have suddenly woken up to how far behind, they really are. At the start of the war, it was discovered that almost all European armies didn't even have enough ordinance for 2 or 3 days of full-scale combat. Pathetic yes. They've gotten fat and lazy under US protection, but the real bad news is they had little to offer Ukraine when it needed it. Their currently scrabbling to make up for it now but as you know, its late.
You cannot judge western armies the way you are doing because they have different priorities than Ukraine. For a start: "He who controls the high ground wins the war", as they say and western or rather US armies are all about that. Ukraine has little choice as they have far less capabilities. Combined force combat, a staple of US armies is not available in Ukraine. Too many parts are missing.
Example: when Putin started shooting his mouth off about nuclear weapons. Something no responsible nuclear armed country does, not even the Chinese, Biden told Putin directly: one nuclear bomb, even a tactical nuclear weapon, really nothing but a terrorist's weapon, and the US would immediately destroy their Black Sea fleet and exterminate every Russian soldier in Ukraine. This was well reported and Putin, for all his nonsense, is no fool. Because he knew that is exactly what the US army would do and is capable of. Ukraine lacks the expertise, the training or the weapons for such warfare. Nor could it just be given to them. It would take years. The US is gearing up for something quite different.
For the last 40 years the US has mainly been concerned with large or small anti-terrorist actions. Now, the US has completely rewritten our Marines and Army doctrine back toward nr. peer and much larger conflicts. Something neither Ukraine nor apparently that pathetic bunch of child rapists the Russians call an army are capable of.
Ukraine will win its war for freedom and democracy, but it'll be in the old fashioned and oh so slow way.
If the Europeans didn't wet their pants every time Putin or that old drunk Medvedev mentioned the word Nuclear, the Polish or British armies might have joined you. That would be all she wrote for the Russians.
There are always lessons in war but you're simply trying to mesh two completely different types of warfare together and that doesn't work.
Slava Ukraine!

European parliaments need changes, too. Corruption is blamed on Ukraine, but lobby to western politicians is basically the same using a different name, and it has grown into the elected institutions beyond any believable scale.

I don’t believe that Russia, Iran, or China are near peer adversaries with the United States. All three would get slaughtered. Ukraine is receiving the west’s old junk, and they are defeating Russia. Imagine NATO against Russia. They’d obviously get slaughtered.

The only reason Russia is able to hit anything in Ukraine is because Ukraine has insufficient air defenses. Give Ukraine sufficient air defenses and everything Russia has would be useless.

One of the big lessons is not to let an enemy invade you in the first place. The Russians were practically unopposed in the South for months, except for the heroes of Azov in Mariupol. But even though Ukraine didn't have the weapons it has now it wouldn't have needed so much to prevent Russia crossing from Crimea. If the bridges had been blown up and all routes heavily mined then the Russians would still be there. Defending the South should have been easy compared to the land borders in the North and East. When all is done there will need to be a serious accounting of how this happened.

I greee with tjereosenberg down here: We need to give Ukraine all they need to stop Russia from attacking them and then let them grind down Russians in the occupied territory. And even inside Russia. Why not 😊

Great insights Georgjis!! (I just learned the spelling of your name through your podcast with Jake!)
Thank you for what you do!!
Slava Ukraini. Heroyam Slava! CRIMEA IS UKRAINE!! And, She's – Coming – Home – Soon!

Certainly, the situation is changing , and the tech is driving that.
I imagine the tendency is going to be in the direction of micromanagement though , simply because of transparency . But there is a sound argument for more autonomous detachments , but multi-skilled multi-tooled … wow how complex would that get , trying not to ' interfere ' with one another!
Dispersed units need coordination at some level even more so than those shoulder to shoulder.
I Can see certain task units doing drone work , coordinated with a fire team , command , an assault team , and a logistics team .