After Germany’s governing coalition collapsed last week, the country’s ZEW added more solid evidence about why that was. The ZEW also collapsed into November. That’s not just about Germany since the “zoo” is really what the rest of the world looks like from the German perspective. That also has a lot to say about the ongoing Treasury selloff (just like April).

Eurodollar University’s Money & Macro Analysis

ZEW November 2024
https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/falling-economic-expectations-after-trump-victory

Bloomberg German Investor Confidence Slumps on Political Strife, Trump Win
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/german-investor-confidence-slumps-on-political-strife-trump-win

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

36 Comments

  1. It's been a wild ride. 4 months ago in august the market was down. the sentiment was bad. Then the market slowly started recovering but overall outlook was still bad that a recession was inevitable. Then US election polls shows it's a close race. Then trump pulling ahead. Then he wins and the market since has been booming. New bull run. Now it's back to recession.

  2. Quitting nuclear energy was the biggest mistake in Germany. We now import more expensive nuclear energy from our neighbor france. You can't make this shit up

  3. I live in France. Went to McDonald's today and bought a Big Mac at twice the price I would pay for it in the United States. Were is our creative people like Elon Muck. it seems to me that the world lives off the creative people from "silicon valley."

  4. The €U better not get too destitute. They are going to be taking over the Ukr'n war for us completely soon. Plus under Tr.ump, they'll be getting a lot less $$$.

  5. last year I considered crypto without much knowledge and decided to have a consultation with a fiduciary, and it was incredibly insightful. I got into the market with 18k, One year and a couple of months in, and I’m up with 570k.

  6. If so many indicators in Germany example shows lvls from Covid crash and GFC times and yet still global stock markets didn't melt down, it just shows how scary near time future going to looks like, plus how many stocks will hit the floor when official bloodbath start for real.

  7. Germany knows what's up because they got screwed over by the international Bank of settlements after World War I which caused the problems that led to World War II. More recently the bank of international settlements has created a cbdc that discludes the dollar. The United States might be the next Germany.

  8. All right Jeff. I gotta know. Are we headed into stagflation? With rising CPI and eventually "official" recession. Will it be stagflation or liquidity injections after the debt ceiling is raised once again? Will the fed release the horses for the kingdom? And will the middle class get trampled again to save the Nation's economy. Or will the so called "soft- landing" occur with a new neutral fed rate and new inflation rate above 2%? Will there ever be a sell-off? I need the break. I need to make some investments. Lord knows when I'll get a raise. Wish I got paid in stock instead of this toilet paper we call money.

  9. Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.

  10. The current economy is unnecessarily tougher for some most people, myself included. I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market. Plus inflation is already catching up with my $310k portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.

  11. In these uncertain times, it's more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy.

  12. In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.

  13. Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.

  14. In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.

  15. I still have a hard time understanding your emphasis on the uncertainty that the policy decisions of the US treasury brings about, since EU also has the ECB controlling interest rates. Could you elaborate why "the EU is sticking more to the fundamentals than the US"?
    You showed graphs of European economic sentiments, and claimed the European interest rates reflect the economic sentiments in Europe more accurately than the American counterpart, but I think claiming that the US has a somewhat distorted outlook because of this is a bit of a stretch. I mean, you have to show American economic indicators and compare them with UST 2y bond rates, that would be a fairer comparison, right?

  16. Try and start a business in Germany! The government has so much red tape it’s just not possible. This is unfathomable ! Germany is totally anti business.

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