Analysis: Israel and Iran set for ‘retaliatory cycle’ of strikes without diplomatic intervention

The Middle East is set for a “broader war” unless diplomats can persuade Israel and Iran to dial down hostilities.

Sky News analyst Prof Michael Clarke said Israel had decided to “take on all its enemies”, triggering last night’s Iranian ballistic missile attack.

He said there needed to be a “choreographed” response from Israel that was acceptable to Iran, or there was a risk of a “retaliatory cycle” of attacks from both sides.

Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in response to Israeli military activities in the region.

Live updates: https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-war-latest-sky-news-live-12978800

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oily goldmit there from the Israeli Embassy in London let’s just take a look at some of the damage caused by this Iranian uh strike on Israel Israel says uh Iran fired almost 200 missiles into its uh territory footage shows missiles flying over Tel Aviv over Jerusalem uh also over the Israel Lebanon border uh our data and forensics team has identified and geolocated footage from around the country including this which shows missiles landing near the ion Mall in Tel Aviv footage also shows missiles landing at or near the netim Air Base South of the West Bank as well as the shalav Chabad gadir school and herela on the Northern outskirts of Tel aiv let’s bring in our defense and security analyst Michael Clark good morning Michael uh just tell us how dangerous a moment you think this is yes uh undoubtedly Mark I mean this is a a dangerous moment because we are on the brink of a much broader War I mean since the 7th of October last year which is just exactly a year ago now since the attack um we’ve we’ve all hoped that this would be contained and the Western world has worked very hard to keep this whole uh conflict contained to the Gaza problem but it but it now looks as if it is going to be become wider we don’t know how more much more serious that will be but undoubtedly in the last 2 or 3 weeks uh Israel has decided to take on um all of its enemies the this access of of resistance as Iran calls it the ring of fire as Israel calls it and we don’t really know what the Iranian response can be to that or will be to that so undoubtedly this is a dangerous moment and the the attacks last night and you’re just pointing out there that the sky forensics team has located as we said last night know in the light of day we’ll be able to see what damage has been done where these missiles landed undoubtedly some of them did land and that itself will provoke um an Israeli response and Netanyahu the Israeli Prime Minister has been very clear about that he said there will be a response it will be strong we’ll see how strong it is and that that that risks another round of retaliatory action from Iran right and I guess um what happens going forward will depend on what Iran does in response to the Israelis yes and the uh I mean I think the Western World United States in particular but also European countries will be trying to say both to uh the Israelis and the Iranians just think about this I mean if you’re going to respond respond in a choreographed way as you did uh in the uh April 13th attacks the last round of this 350 odd missile attacks uh against Israel um do it in a choreographed way so that that gives us some mbow room some diplomatic room for maneuver to draw a line under this and try and dial down the the danger that we that this will break out into a a more generalized Middle Eastern conflict see how that goes yeah yeah and just a few moments ago we were just showing a picture of an explosion in the last few minutes in this city from where we are broadcasting this morning Beirut so it’s clear that Israeli attacks are continuing uh on this city um and further south in southern Lebanon Michael more Israeli troops coming across uh more armored units coming across intense fighting reported by the Israelis by both sides in fact it does look as though that is turning into a more significant operation yes it does the Israelis have obviously decided that they they’re going to move into Southern Lebanon in force and it we we reckon that um there’s probably 10 or 12 brigades involved in this and we know certainly of the um the 998th um Airborne Division a very famous airborn division the the 98th maybe the 36th armor division the possibly the 146th division um elements of of those three or elements have been put together into three divisions and it looks like a three division attack although maybe with not quite the numbers that that might imply but we’re looking at maybe 20 25,000 Israeli troops plus all of their equipment equipment moving into Southern Lebanon and I think as John Sparks was reporting earlier on to you a lot of engineering equipment and that’s always a sign when you see forces moving in with engineering equipment it usually indicates that they intend to do either quite a big job or stay for quite some time so you know I think that’s where we are in Lebanon I think the other thing Mark which is interesting is that I think the Israelis are cashing in on their intelligence operation over the last two to three years I mean we know Israeli intelligence is very good and they’ve been very intensively um uh operating all across the region in the last 12 months since the October 7th attacks so they they can locate a lot of Targets in Hezbollah they can locate targets with the militias in Syria and Iraq they can locate targets with the houth is they know what’s going on in Iran and I think in a sense the Israelis are now on a rooll or they feel they are and they’re going for broke they are using all that they know of the intelligence of their opponents to go for quite a lot of them if not all of them more or less simultaneously yeah I mean it’s intelligence they didn’t seem to have in the last such operation 2006 that seemed a very rushed oper well it was a very rushed operation much different to this one Michael but just look just finally a quick word on um the operation last night to defend Israel Deborah Haynes is saying that RAF typhoon Jets were involved what would they have been doing do you think not not very much to be honest uh I mean I think that we we we at the time we weren’t sure how many um drones might have been involved it looks if this whole attack was ballistic missiles that that’s still to be confirmed but the I mean having aircraft in the air having Fighters with missiles on board their own missiles they can only be used really Against drones there’s not much a fighter can do against ballistic missiles incoming so it may well be that RF typhoons from aquati they were used we we we we’re told that by the British government but I imagine that they were patrolling in the area of Northern Israel on the lookout for drones which don’t seem to have been part of the attack so in that respect they were part of it they were they they would have been part of the general surveillance and it would have released Israeli aircraft to be doing other things if the if ourf aircraft and American aircraft were out there looking for drones but if this attack was entirely ballistic missile based um then I can be fairly confident that the um uh fighters in the air wouldn’t have had much to do that they could usefully contribute all right Michael thank you very much indeed