ITV News General Election 2024: The Results

ITV News General Election 2024: The Results

e e e e e e e e the Prime Minister took us all by surprise as he launched his reelection bid in the pouring rain and even his supporters might acknowledge it pretty much went downhill from there the polls were disastrous then catastrophic then into potential Wipeout territory but were they right or could we be in for another shock we are not far now from the Moment of Truth for the PM for the polsters indeed for all of us the seconds are ticking down to the the first strike of big benan at 10:00 when the broadcasters joint exit pole will give us the clearest indication of the new political landscape have we voted for Change and if so have we done so decisively on every election night history is made the party leaders voting earlier will of course have been all too well aware of the predictions of record-breaking shifts so much on the line for each of them tonight there are always two key questions what is happening and what does it mean we have what we believe is the best possible team to help you chart a course through what could be a turbulent night buckle up the political map is about to be reshaped and we’ve got our most powerful set of tools to get into the data from the exit pole and the early results to separate the signal from the noise so you can make sense of it all and we’ve got our biggest and best ever panel of experts former Scottish first Minister Nicholas sturgeon join joins George Osborne and Ed Bulls to analyze and interpret the story of the night Robert peston Is Here to give us his political insight and to mine his contact this election has felt from the off like a huge moment in our history partly because the last 14 years have seen so many shocks and the world remains so uncertain and dangerous will the UK choose A New Path and could we about to feel an earthquake that shakes our entire city system and we have two of the most highly respected election experts in the country professors Colin rings and Jane green to break down the what and the why of the results we’ll have correspondence in every nation in every region with the party leaders and those constituencies racing to be the first to declare I’m in BL where they’re hoping to beat their local Rivals across the Northeast by announcing the first MP of the new Parliament I’ll be bringing you regular updates here in the ITV Newsroom where our results team will be taking calls from our journalists across the country as they aim to bring you the results before anyone else here with me throughout the night we’ll be Pa yes Nina I’ll be keeping a close eye on stories emerging from Counts Across the Nation as we learn how your vote will shape Parliament so we are with you for the next eight hours through every Twist and Turn of what is sure to be an interesting and might be an astonishing night welcome to election 2024 the results [Music] live only a few moments to go now until the polls close and we can reveal the results of that joint broadcasters exit poll to guide us through the impact of that projection for the new Parliament we have an unrivaled panel of political Minds who’ve been at the heart of power themselves when previous exit polls signaled the reshaping of governments alliances and political careers let’s get a sense from them of what they’ll be looking out for as the night unfolds Nicola maybe I can start with you I mean like you’ve been a leader you’ve sat there waiting what are you thinking at this moment as a party leader you’re feeling utterly sick at this moment all of your worst fears are are crowding into your mind and when itth appears on the screen if it’s good you’re terrified it’s wrong if it’s bad you are praying that it’s wrong I led the S&P through three general elections in my experience the numbers will change around the edges but what we see in a few minutes time will be essentially the result of the election that is jeopardy for you George do you know it’s an amazingly Democratic moment because you can be the Prime Minister you can be the leader of the opposition but right now you’re just like everyone else you don’t know what the exit poll is and you’re sitting there I remember it so clearly as Chancellor wait waiting for the numbers to flash up you don’t have the inside track it’s the one time in politics you’re not inside the room that others are not in you’re just like everyone else waitting waiting Ed you’ve waited sometimes they’re surprising look um if you’re K starma or Rachel Reeves you know the world is about to change but you don’t know which way it’s going to go and that uncertainty in that moment is amazing and then of course when it lands if it’s not what you want back in 2015 in said of a Tory majority and um and we um we thought well it really and the word from the campaign HQ was poor cold water on the exit pole but in fact that is the wrong strategy it’s delusional because in the end as we know since 1992 they’ basically as Nicholas said been been right so you have to think well this is it what’s it going to mean and uh there’s no point arguing with the exit pole okay let’s see one Conant of all exit poles is the amount of data and Anushka will be here to talk us through it all Anushka what will you be looking out for well I’ll be over here all night inputting all that data into our amazing tools including this map I can show you the 2019 results that is Boris Johnson’s majority each block is a constituency the height of the block is the size of the majority but right now we have no results so let’s get this ready for our exit poll now excitingly I’ve just got back from from a top secret location in London where I was next door to the magic where experts were compiling and analyzing that poll including experts from ITV so how does the exit poll work well it involves more than 20,000 voters selected at random at 133 locations I can’t tell you exactly where but trust me all over the country they return to the same locations from previous elections to try to track changes in voting behavior people were asked after they had voted to replicate exactly how they voted and all that data constituency by constituency is analyzed to give us the national exit pole prediction and it is a prediction of what the new Parliament will look like this year there have been changes to the boundaries where constituency maps are redrawn making the exit pole work even harder for our Colin and our Jane now this is our labor Battle Board the seats they need to win to get a majority and Beyond colored in 2019 results let’s clear it down ready for the exit pole and thank you Robert you’ve lived through a few elections how does this compare so as you say I’ve been sitting waiting for the big result rather too many times in my career quite a few times with you and even on the eve of poll when you think you know what the country is going to do that exit pole always yields something out of left field so what I’ve learned over the years is you got to adapt your thinking pretty rapidly on the night okay the exit pole will certainly spot reaction across the country and not long after that the first results will start being announced Nina is in our Newsroom keeping across it all Nina yes thanks Tom our results team here will soon be Fielding calls from right across the UK we have journalists at every count in the country and as soon as they get a declaration these are the people they call to ensure we bring you the results as they come in alongside regular updates throughout the night Paul will will be bringing you his insight into what is happening yes Nina counting will get underway across all of these locations in just a few moments time I’ll be analyzing the standout stories as they emerge across the UK the shocks and surprises as well as all that reaction to them okay Nina and Paul thank you very much Jane what are your thoughts in these final moments before the poll is released so I think every election tells a story doesn’t it about the country we live in and we think back to 2019 that was the brexit election so I’m sitting here wondering what this election is going to be called is it the disillusionment election it’s definitely going to be dramatic one of the interesting things here is we we’re going to find out the seat shares and that’s going to be obviously a very very strong indicator but we won’t know how people have voted we won’t know all the vote shares until all of the results are in so we’ll be following those vote shares to understand just how and why people have voted the where they are and what story that does indeed tell us about this election Colin you have been working on the exit pole it’s partly your work your responsibility talk us talk us down towards it well the exact numbers may change as the night goes on but we can be pretty confident that what it will do is give an indication of what the pattern and the flow of results and the actual outcome of the night is going to be so is it going to be the case that labor are return to power on a historic swing or alternatively maybe the polls have been wrong and the conser conservatives could for the first time ever form a government at after three five sorry successful general elections okay well you’re looking at Big Ben now and we are in these final seconds when everyone in the whole country frankly is waiting with baited breath uh to work out uh what may lie in store Rishi sunak called this election desperately hoping that um uh he would be able to um get a majority and has he got it the exit pole is here it is predicting a labor Landslide a labor majority of 170 it has the conservatives on 131 seats and labor on 410 the libdems are projected to win 61 seats reform on 13 with the SNP expected to secure 10 that is a simply astonishing result uh record breaking history making uh the Tories uh did have uh you know they’ve dropped to the lowest number of seats since 1832 I think looking at that number that is an astonishingly low figure just to capture for a moment the scale of Labor’s achievement they’ve taken a Tory majority of notionally over 90 according to boundary changes and we’ve gone in a huge swing in the other direction uh potentially to a labor majority if this exit pole is right of 170 the S&P has had a poor night the libdems look like they’ve had a very good night and reform has come out of nowhere really you know only uh coming to to stand in this election standing in most seats unexpectedly uh clearly rishy sunak didn’t think that was going to happen and yet that has really clearly had a huge impact let’s get a immediate reaction Ed perhaps I should start with you this is an astonishing light K dama must be literally perhaps they’re going to need to scrape him off the ceiling because this is quite some result look at it is um it is Labor’s biggest and best election Victory ever delivered by KIA starma um it’s um it’s fantastic for labor it’s off the scale I think it’s way beyond their their expectations they weren’t expecting this to to happen to get to a majority of one they had to have the same swing as Tony Blair in 1997 and it looks like this could be a majority approaching the kind of majority um that Tony Blair achieved in in 19 1997 which is 179 that is um I mean to turn that round from 2019 is just a huge a victory for k starma um and I think it will mean also um for the conservative party I mean you we’ll hear from George kind huge uh challenges here but um I think the wise heads in labor will say there are risks in this result for labor look at the surge in reform um gaining 13 seats on this exit pole um we’ll wait to see what labor share of the vote is but this may not be a great share of the vote for labor and this is a very very volatile political time that we are in there will be people who look across and see what macron achieved when he won just a few years ago and how quickly that has turned around into disaster with the rise of the far right in France and people will be saying K stama and Rachel Reeves you’ve got to deliver in this Parliament early on trust and integrity and living standards and the National Health Service because if not that reform surge if that continues to grow if the conservative party get the act together with reform a hideous Prospect um then labor would be vulnerable so there’ll be wides head saying you know be careful but overall the mood will be of massive celebration K stama uh the most successful winning prime minister labor has ever had George a h huge huge huge result for labor not quite the sub 100 seats that some people were predicting for the Tory party but the worst in their history since they came out of being a Tory faction nevertheless a catastrophe reform doing very well out of nowhere where does it leave everything in your view yeah well look first of all congratulations to prime minister stama I mean this is a historic win uh an incredible win as Ed says from where uh labor was at the last election their worst result result since the second world war now their best result possibly ever um and he and Rachel Reeves did a brilliant job in reassuring the country that there was no risk of changing to labor and in the night when people wanted to kick the Tories the labor party has done unbelievably well I think there’s a big question you know when we turn this new chapter we look at the page people want change but the page at the moment is quite blank and so labor have to fill that in over the coming weeks as for the conservatives you know it’s going to sound odd there’ll be a bit of a sigh of relief even though it’s the worst result since 1832 when the Duke of Wellington was you know running the Tory party um though this feels more like you know the Tory part’s water frankly and uh you know really the cabin ministers by their drove using their seats see look we’re going to see a load of people lose their seats uh household names in or at least in those who follow politics household names um and it’ be a huge mistake to to take a lot of comfort from this but there were people thinking and the polls were suggesting could be an Extinction night for the Tory party an extinction level event and the Tory party would never come back I think there’ll be a lot of conservatives saying we can come back and then the final point I make and the you know the second big story of the night is reform they have they’ve entered the palace the Palace of Westminster you know and if this is right there will be reform MPS and there will be a huge conversation and argument inside the conservative party which is if we can merge with reform then we can come back at labor labor didn’t get such a high share of the vote if the majority is thinner than it looks on paper I think that’s a disastrous route for the Tories to go down but it is going to be the conversation Nicola a lot has happened since you left office some of it we can’t talk about there’s a police investigation an active one and for legal reasons you can’t talk about it I can’t ask you about it nevertheless there are going to be lots of people watching in Scotland tonight who are going to say look this looks like an absolutely disastrous result and there are going to be people in your party and perhaps out saying it’s all your pH absolutely I don’t doubt that at all you know this is a at the Grimmer end of expectations for the S SMP if the exit poll is right and given what I said earlier on I suspect it will be broadly right I’ll come back to that in a minute I think first of all this is seismic for labor and there’s no getting away from that a massive achievement for Kier starmer um I think it will be interesting as the night progresses to see the extent to which this is a victory driven by a to collapse as opposed to labor surge I agree with seeing the vote shares will be fascinating I think there’s also a question about you know this massive mandate labor now has and what actually is a mandate for they were very very cautious during the campaign I think the UK political system may be reaping the Whirlwind of appeasing farage rather than taking farage on on the code arguments that he makes particularly around immigration but asid might win for labor and it looks as if labor has also won its first election in a long time in Scotland look yes uh there are uh clearly big issues in a result of this uh scale for the SNP the snp’s been in government for 17 years uh we’re in government now at a time when austerity is really biting the impact of brexit is biting of course H there were always going to be real challenges in this election uh but it’s also about the context of the election you know this was a kick the toies get the toies out um and that always happened to the S&P pre the independence referendum and I think we’re reverting to that tonight but you know this is not a good night for the S&P on these numbers um and there’ll be a lot of questions uh that need to be asked as we come out of it I think there will be a question about whether there was enough in the campaign to give a effectively a USP to the SNP in a an election that was about getting the Tories out and replacing them with labor but no doubt we’ll get into much of that as the night progresses we do have all night Rob so for me this is the most important general election result since 1979 that was important we discovered actually somewhat after that election date simply because it represented such a dramatic policy shift we don’t know actually quite yet what kind of policy shift this will represent but if you just look at what’s happened to the Tory share of the vote the lowest it’s been we think since 18 32 we don’t actually yet know we we we we’re hearing and this is in itself is seismic that reform is going to get a significant number of seats 13 Okay small compared to the big parties but we’ve never in our history had a populist farri party represented in those sorts of numbers in our Parliament and it is uh certainly conceivable given this issue around the so-called efficiency of the labor vote in other words clocking up votes in places they could win reform didn’t have long to prepare for prepare for this we know that their vote is going to be very inefficiently spread but their share of the overall vote may be pretty close to the conservative party’s share of the vote and that is also highly significant and then the falling back if it’s right we don’t know because there are margins of error here but if the SNP falls back to just 10 seats in Parliament which implies that labor is now yet once again the biggest party in Scotland by a margin that will have profound implications for that debate over Scottish independence so as I say for me this is the most significant night in our political history since at least 1979 Jane I’m going to ask Colin to properly go through the Expo but can you just set the scene in terms of what you think has happened under the wire here so I think the reform the potential here for the reform share to be really quite significant ific is is is high and the potential also not just in those seats and this is as Robert said this is a really extraordinary moment it’s a real breakthrough for reform for Nigel farage but I imagine that the impact that reform is having right across the country in loads of seats where the conservatives are being damaged is going to be really substantial and then we’ve got the likelihood of a very strong tactical vote helping the liberal Democrats so on both sides of that kind of question you’ve got vot is really in this pins movement trying to unseat the conservatives in this election so I think I think not only this number of MPS for reform will be incredibly significant in Parliament but the Electoral significance of Reform is going to really pose a quandry for the two largest parties the conservatives obviously have to try to come back from this somehow and the labor part is going to have to navigate that too because this majority is going to be at least substantially off the back of Reform games okay Colin the exit take it away yes the exit pole well I think what it tells you and Jane is sort of um already hinting at this it was everyone going how can we best get rid of the conservatives we found that in 1997 when there were only two choices it was you either voted labor or you voted libdem depending on where you were this time reform has joined the party and to a more limited extent the greens as well so what we’ll find as the results come in is we’ll find the conservative vote collapsing everywhere in many places where labor was the Challenger labor will have had a big swing towards it and will have done enough to get over the line in other places labor will have to share that drop from the conservative vote with reform in most cases labor will be okay but in some of the places which voted very heavily for leave in 2016 at the referendum and in some of the places that voted conservative again in 2017 and 2019 and where they seem to have very big majorities at the moment many people have decided that they can’t go to labor that they’re not labor kind of people libdems are perhaps not very strong there they will have gone to reform and I think we’ll see some of those areas where reform will slip through the middle libdems done pretty well they probably haven’t got all that much more voting support than they got at the last general election but we saw Ed Davy throughout the campaign with his very stuns but that did its job didn’t it and where were those stunts those stunts were in places where they thought and expected to win seats and where were they going to win seats they going win the seats that they used to have in the barmy days of the Blair government and Paddy Ashdown as the leader of the party so expect to see them win a s of seats from Southwest London right through West as far as Cornwell and the names will come up and they’ll be familiar and you go oh yeah I remember when the libdems used have seats in Cornell or when the libdems used have seats in Somerset or Wilshire we’ll be seeing that again I think tonight so that’s the the basic pattern is yes it was a it was a get rid of the Tories but it has has to be said and Ed was absolutely right about this Labor’s share of the vote will look pretty disappointing and may not be all that much different when it comes to it than the 36 or so percent that you got in 2005 when again a comfortable majority but then of course the conservatives were quite close behind you now the conservatives a long way behind that’s why the conservatives buity is going to be so big okay while we’ve been talking with polling stations closed the ballot boxes can be opened of course and votes counted the race is on in the Northeast where being the first seat to declare has become something of a matter of Pride We’ll Be Live shortly in Sunderland and bl to see how they are getting on well listen we’ve given you the exit pole and we should stress repeatedly as we will through this early part of the evening that it could be wrong but let’s be frank what an amazing exit pole so many things in it as we said this huge change from notional Tory majority to very large potential labor majority and lots more to talk about this is a very dramatic exit pole and exciting although I should correct George no one has yet walked into Parliament because as you say no votes are actually in so I’m just going to pause you on that and I’ll have lots of caveats up here let’s start with the map I showed you earlier Boris Johnson’s Country here on the left let’s now add the new exit pole into the right and you can see a dramatic change every block is a constituency the height is the size of the majority I mean this is really kicking the governments really kicking the government in Scotland kicking the government in Westminster now the way we’re going to look at this through the night is through our Battle Board these are the seats that labor needed to win to try to get a majority so we start with a very easy wins less than 1% 1% 2% very north for example a majority of 105 they needed that right on we go on the board here we go three four five six 7% even here this is still not a majority for K stama he has to keep going on we go on we go and we have lit up our magic column 12% and the reason that is lit up is that if he gets everything up to donc cter East down here at the bottom that’s the 125 seats he needs but given that exit pole let’s zoom out and have a look at our entire Battle Board because we’re going to need all of it tonight those are the colors from 2019 let’s put the exit pole in you can see what it is is predicting I mean that is a pretty big landslide that is obviously lots of it going red now I should say the exit poll gives us a prediction for every single seat we have a probability attached to it but we’ll be very careful with that kind of information now because this is looking pretty big I’m actually going to pull over and show you even bigger swings we go up to 18 there this is 19 to 29% with the exit pole in and you can see this is suggesting that labor are picking up seats even in that 19 to 29% swing area we’re going to continue I think even beyond that during the night now if we just gray it out because as I keep saying no results are actually in let me just show you a few areas that are interesting starting with our red wall board right so this was the story of 2019 all the seats that the Tories picked up in the red wall the north of England and the Midlands and adding in the exit pole have a look at that so K armor it looks like has rebuilt the red wall but there is a reform seat in there and that is where we’re going to start looking at the things Jane has been talking about just now how much the reform effect is actually damaging the Tes in seats like this one way to have another look at this is to look at our group of conservative held in 2019 seats with a high leave vote in the referendum and we add the exit poll there these were seats that the conservatives did incredibly well with in 2019 and as you can see not only are they falling to LA but poten eventually some of them are falling to reform and given what you’ve been talking about we have to look at the Scotland board and add in so the left you can see the snp’s dominance before tonight if this exit poll is correct then that is a terrible night for the S&P one thing just to say though the exit pole is less accurate in Scotland we are more worried about variation there so we really will count that through the night very very carefully we’ve already had both myself and George referencing that if the Tores end up with with the number of seats that the exit pole is predicting you know we’re we’re back to the 1830s which is probably something at the start of the year we didn’t necessarily think we’d be discussing we’ve talked a lot about which cabinet ministers might be under threat can we have a look at who is I’m bring this up just just huge caveat on this I told you individual seats we’re going to be careful about these are the people who will be nervous the exit poll suggest they’re going to go but we don’t know until those results come in so this was the cabinet up top left Alex chalk he was always worried goding that will suggest the exit pole is suggesting that Jeremy Hunt the chancellor has lost his seat below him Grant shaps um in well in Hatfield I mean this is more really than we were expecting we’ve seen scalps go like Ed Balls before this could be a number of scalps there you go Mark Harper there in Penny m in bouth North remember lots of these people might be thinking about future leadership and I think maybe we can show you some pictures of some of them who might be thinking about leadership and not all of them according to this exit pole are going to survive the night according to this exit pole only James cleverly there at the front and kemy Bok at the back right will survive the night but as I say be careful okay be careful with the cab right let’s uh get our first official reaction from labor we’re joined in Manchester by the deputy leader Angela Raina Angela Just Wind back a little bit let’s go back six months or or maybe a year you couldn’t possibly have imagined a result like this well we’re very encouraged by the exit poll and it shows what a tremendous job K starmer has done in transforming the labor party and putting forward a program for government that people can really get behind I think it also shows that 14 years of the conservatives where they’ve had chaos and decline people are really punishing them for that record of failure I mean do you think a labor majority this big is going to feel very different in government than a smaller much smaller labor majority will it Empower you to do things you wouldn’t have thought of otherwise will it encourage you to be sort of Bolder well look it is just a exit pole and again we haven’t had any of the results through yet so I’m not about to start counting my chicken just yet but it is encouraging and you know it it doesn’t matter the majority the point is is that the Mandate hopefully that K St will have is that we could go forward now and turn the page on the chaos and the decline that we’ve seen under the conservatives and really have that program for growth now which will enable us to pay for our public services and get back on the right track look weed sorry that’s quite that’s quite all right we wouldn’t want you getting wet uh it’s raining Manchester yeah what can on say well listen we’re very pleased that you’ve decided to join us the rain and all but look in reality I I totally understand why you’re being cautious but the exit pole would have to be wrong by a factor so gargantuan that for you not to be in government when all is said and done you must be you must be feeling pretty amazing at this point surely I mean first of all it’s incredible that so many people it looks like a given labor that opportunity and if we do have that opportunity with all of those fantastic candidates that we put forward to get them over the line you know I’ve been a member of parliament now for nine years and I spent all of that time in opposition to have the honor and the privilege to be able to be in government and serve the people as Kier starma says if labor win do p does win power tonight it’s about putting country first party second and we’re all very clear about that is to roll up pass leaves and to deliver for the British people who desperately need that change there are lots of other things potentially in the exit poll uh of considerable note not least the rise in reform what do you make of [Applause] that well I think the rising reform is uh absolute example of the conservative failure over the last 14 years people are absolutely fed up I think they’ve had the wind knocked out of them when it comes to politics they’ve had promis and slogans that have not materialized and I think that’s why K Stam has been very clear that we wouldn’t overpromise we’ve got a program that’s credible that’s fully costed that we could deliver on that could get us on the right track again we know it’s not going to be easy The Inheritance is going to be difficult but we’re all very clear on what we need to do to really change the country and the first thing is as Rachel Reed says is stability is changed and about giving people that security and that we’re going to work really hard to put them first to get the country on the right track again and I’m going to let you get out of the rain in just a second but very briefly if I can before you go is is the is the is the lesson of tonight if the exit pole is right that politics has just become more volatile and is that something that you’re going to have to think very hard about when you’re actually in government yourselves I think the message of tonight and something that the labor party has learned from history is never take vot for granted you know people who vote for you deserve that respect because they put their trust in you and the trust of their family and their future and we don’t take that for granted and if we do have the honor and privilege to form the government tomorrow then we’ll all work really hard to repay that trust that the people have put in us we’re really grateful for you for braving the rain thank you very much indeed thank you okay let’s bring that back into dude rain I feel like it’s the story of this election campaign isn’t it really well she she did something that richy Zak should have done turn up an umbrella look serious before we get on talking about the politics there’s loads of politics and we’ll be talking about it all night but before we do can we just consider the human element here I mean what do you you know you’ve all walked into government right you’ve won elections you’ve walked into government I mean nck you’ve walked in as you know the highest office what do you thinking on a night like that and when you’re actually going into your office for the first time I mean Liber will be jubilant tonight and you know they will be ecstatic they’ve just it looks as if they’ve just recorded a an absolute overwhelming Victory but regardless of that regardless of how good a plan you think you have for government and I think there are big questions about whether labor actually does have one the overwhelming feeling that when you walk through the doors of in K starmer’s case number 10 or in my case but house is just you know the weight of responsibility you are literally overwhelmed by that in the moment and all of the problems that you have up until that moment been commenting on and blaming somebody else for they’re suddenly in your entry and you’re the one that has to try to work out a way through them navigate a way forward so you know I’m pretty sure they’ll get to grips with that quickly K’s got a lot of experience in running a big organization so I’m pretty sure he won’t be phased by it but the problems the country faces right now are really deep structural systemic problems and they’re not going to be easy to turn around quickly and I think that’s the biggest challenge an incoming labor government has it’s if it does have this huge majority that comes with a a massive weight of expectation and are they going to be able to deliver and deliver quickly enough because as we see from the exit pole it looks as if politics is volatile if the Tori victory of 2019 can be turned around so quickly well a labor victory of this kind of scale potentially can be turned around quickly as well and you could possibly see more of a drift to reform and some the developments like we’re seeing in in France for example now these are things we’ll get into as the results come out but you know labor K Stam in particular of course he’ll be feeling excited about you know the opportunities that he now has as you know a historic Prime historically successful prime minister but he’ll also be really nervous about the responsibilities that confront him georgean Ed what did you feel when you walked in through the door for the first time I suspect he’s actually feeling a lot of relief I mean I certainly felt I know David Cameron felt in 2010 that we had delivered for all of our supporters there’s an enormous sense of thank God we did it um and even though he’s been told for weeks he’s going to win I think there’s something special about seeing the exit poll kind knowing it’s happening um and I think also I don’t you know I think for labor but I went you know Ed will speak to this as well you know from the depths of five years ago and Jeremy Corbin when people were saying there’d never be another labor government for the moderates in the labor party to have carried the torch to this point you know is I think a lesson for the conservatives because I think fundamentally Rishi sunak did not unlike Kama confront the extremists and the demons in his party K stama did Jeremy Corbin was expelled from being a candidate and he’s won rishy Sak never confronted the Boris Johnson period of government and the lack of Ethics in it and he never confronted the Liz trust period in government and the economic Madness of that and he has paid a huge price he was he turned out not to be the change that the country wanted because he was too timid he was not bold enough he played it safe he tried to manage the party and in know in the end it kind of drifted from being a party of aspiration that won 14 years ago to a sort of party of anger and now it’s on the receiving end of the country’s anger do you know what this night feels like because in 97 you literally walked in with a majority not as in fact slightly larger if the exit pole is right but not by much I mean you knew you were going to win beforehand right you can’t have been in much doubt of that what are those what are those what’s what’s tonight like when you’re in that position look the the moment of the exit pole is is incredible and in 97 it was a huge shock and I think this is a huge shock shock for Kia starma as well um and I would say that that kind of the exhilaration and the um the anticipation will Echo right across the country in Labor uh circles and there’ll all be people thinking about their count and are they going to win how big their majority is I would say for k stama in that moment he shifts I don’t think he’s going to spend the night watching the results worrying about the polls worrying about the exit pole he will shift to tomorrow he’s going to make the speech of his life going to Downing Street we still um we still quote marget F’s speech in 1979 the prayer of France of the CC we still think of Tony Blair arriving in Downing Street get that right get his cabinet right one thing I would say is don’t underestimate K sta we may have thought to ourselves you know um he could have gone out and got a better m mate but the guy won and he won big with a strategy which is totally delivered with a campaign which didn’t put a foot wrong and look I hope he’s got a plan of course he’s got a plan he’s got to have a plan but you know don’t say he’s not got a plan until we see because you know guys don’t okay I don’t think anyone’s underestimating K Tor at this point uh in the cycle now our teams have been following the political leaders throughout the campaign romaly has been with Rishi sunak and Harry has with Nigel farage Harry maybe we can come to you first I’m is just there behind you looks like he might have one heck of a night yeah that’s right Nel farage is just uh standing outside what is a reform party going on here uh he’s been on the phone quite a lot in the last few minutes at that exit pole if reform get 13 seats that is I think it’s fair to say beyond the wildest dreams of Reform uh Nigel farage was hoping to pick up a handful of seats 13 would be a huge result for his party uh he has always been clear uh that his mission goes well beyond this election it’s over the next 5 years he wants to try and reshape the right of British politics to try and destroy or replace the conservative party for that mission to succeed he needs to get elected to Parliament and he needs some reform MPS alongside him if he manages to get 13 MPS he will be in an incredibly strong position come next week and I think he will be feeling cautiously optimistic perhaps a bit more than that actually uh at this early stage tonight romaly the PM if one is truly honest didn’t look like he was having the time of his life on this election campaign and one could hardly blame him I I saw it reported over the past few days that he thinks he might lose his constituency that doesn’t seem massively likely on the basis of the exit pole we’re looking at I mean is is he possibly feeling a bit of relief tonight that it was I mean George was just saying a moment ago it’s you know maybe not as bad as some people were expecting it’s pretty bad though isn’t it uh the prime minister is watching the results he’s hunkered down at home about 10 minutes away from here with just his family and a few close AIDS he told me that he hoped his daughters would be going to bed and not staying up to watch the results which given what’s predicted has got to be the kindest option he will have watched the exit pole at the same time as the rest of us heard his fate at the same time as the rest of us did and if he harbored any illusions that his talks of giving labor a blank check of super majorities might have caused a last minute turnaround that has pretty much turned to ashes he is expected here in the early hours in previous uh elections he’s turned up early I’m told that it is going to be a pretty Swift visit he also told me that he intended to stay up all night which is going to be a pretty painful process you’ve got to imagine as he watches potentially hundreds of his colleagues maybe even many of his cabinet lose their seats and the recriminations are going to start to roll in he did keep up a pretty upbeat demeanor through the campaign he kept on saying that he was fighting for every vote that he was working his socks off working day and night but the voters appear to have decided that not just him on his party’s record thought that that was not enough okay well a reminder of the prediction from The Joint broadcasters exit pole which has a labor Landslide with a labor majority of 170 the Tories on 131 labor on 410 the libdems with 61 reform on 13 and the SNP on 10 so the exit poll is correct we are looking at Labour’s biggest gain in seats since 1945 it predicts that the conservatives would end the night down 241 labor would be up 209 the libdems up 53 and the SNP down 38 that is an astonishing reversal of Fortunes from a really pretty large workable Tory majority at the last election to what looks like an enormous labor majority at this one implying u a genuinely huge swing not quite as big as Tony Blair’s majority uh at this stage in the evening if the exit poll is correct but close let’s check in on the race to be the first count to declare a resolve traditionally a battle between the seats in the Northeast lucreta lucreta is in sundland and Gamal is in blide um maybe both of you but Luccia perhaps I could start with you how’s it going yeah Tom some fast and furious counting happening here behind me some of the fastest fingers in the Northeast actually uh three seats being counted hoton and Sunderland South sundland Central and Washington and gate head south 90 counters for each of those seats and there is I have to say a feal atmosphere here in The Counting Room and there was an audible gasp when that early early exit pole uh result came out but let’s get to the mechanics here of the count now the first Ballot Box was rush through the doors here just 5 minutes within the polls uh closing uh they’ve been continuing to do so but counting here could actually start bang on 10:00 because this year this time in Sun land they received 60,000 postor votes um it is very much a well oiled machine let’s not forget why we are here in Sunderland because they have a pretty good track record of being the first to declare at general elections they did it between 1992 up to 2015 in fact they still hold the record for the fastest ever Declaration of a seat at the general election that was in 2015 they did it in just 44 minutes now we don’t know if they’re going to beat that record tonight there are other contenders in 2017 and 2019 it was neighboring Newcastle who came and declared first so bringing a bit of that football rivalry from the pitch onto The Counting Room floors there’s also another Contender as you say blly as well and most definitely in the running to declare first but look all the officials will say it’s not a race it’s about accuracy that is the priority here it’s certainly the priority for the candidates uh there’s going to be a lot of drama a lot of excitement tonight I think over the next few hours but I think one thing is for sure the race is on yeah the race is certainly on and it promises to be a really exciting night here in BL ify look at what’s going on the atmosphere here is uh palpable uh BL was seen in one of the more exciting moments of the last gener election with the conservative Ian Ley winning the safe labor seat of blly Valley a seat that have been labor since his Creation in in 1950 a seat that voted leave in the general election but the things may well have changed here and the energy here the atmos atmosphere here has been absolutely palpable just take a look at what we’ve been seeing over the last half an hour so uh election officials are running to and fro uh voting papers been collected and then counting uh ballot boxes been rushed from the entrance and bought onto the big tables uh and then emptied another thing that’s worth factoring in is that the results here going to be pretty uh interesting ing boundary changes have seen the creation of a new constituency live in ashington labor hope to win that but some of the other parties will be hoping to do uh well too squeezing the conservatives from different sides putting even more pressure on that vulnerable 2019 conservative electoral Coalition so yeah a really really big night here in BL there all going on two big questions that will need to be answered will blly be the first to declare and will there be a labor MP who’ll be representing uh the newly formed con constituency offer BL and ashon we should get the answers to both those questions uh within the next hour or so so uh do stay tuned we will indeed both of you thank you very much so now is a good time to set out how our team here at ITV News will bring you the results first we have journalists at every election count across the UK as soon as they are sure of the outcome of a count often before the official Declaration on stage they call it in and as a result a strap like this you can see uh that’s a sample one on on your screen it will appear along the bottom of it now in 2019 we called 450 of the 650 results before any other broadcaster so if you want to know the results first do stay with us now for more on what those exit pole figures uh mean let’s come into a discussion here at the desk um Jane I can hear you tapping away in my my right which means you’ve been looking at some of the data what what are your kind of thoughts now you’ve had a little more time to reflect on it all so it’s it’s it’s kind of funny isn’t it that in the last election we talked a lot about brexit a lot about leave areas and remain areas and to to all intents and purposes no one’s really talked about brexit very much but here we are again looking at the relationship of conservative Falls in vote shares in areas where leave the areas so areas where more people voted leave in the referendum back in 2016 and also where the brexit party didn’t stand last time so of course one of the reasons that reform UK can make such advances in this election is because they’re now standing everywhere whereas the predecessor party the brexit party didn’t stand everywhere they didn’t contest conservative races in 2019 so that seems to be one of the most significant things I think it’s also significant that if you looked at the polls in the last week we did actually see a drop in Labor’s kind of potential vote intention of around five points and so it could be that just in this last week that tactical vote decision has also been solidifying becoming more concrete for people in areas of the country that looks like it’s going to benefit the LI Dems to we be looking at remain areas on that point Tom the chat in labor circles in the last four five six days was reform surge lots of people saying there’s a lot more reform on the doorstep that was definitely happening since the weekend and yet I’d still expect that reform would be taking votes away from the conservatives rather than the labor party so that’s how you know that split that splintering on the right is how we can get a kind of result that we are looking like we’re going to get where reform is coming up being very successful and in damaging the conservatives primary I’m going to ask everyone to pick up on that in just a minute but I’m told we have Robert buckin we’ve had uh somewhat of a difficult time uh getting uh leading conservatives to appear on our program tonight or indeed on any broadcast perhaps for understandable reasons but Robert Buckland who is in his seat in swinden tonight has joined us Robert thank you very much indeed for sparing the time uh I don’t think there’s any way of putting this other than to say it looks like it’s been a catastrophic night for your party yeah I was uh in the 199 7 election as a candidate I know what it feels like and you have to brace yourself for the most horrible of defeats and it’s a defeat that will uh take a long time for the conservative party to recover from and the question is what now for the conservative party if we come to some glib uh solutions that uh seem to suggest that we should Veer even more to the right and become a party of protest and incoherent anger that would be a huge mistake because it seems to me the challenge now is generational what are we saying to younger people who want to own their own home who want to have a stake in our society not enough we need to start focusing on the new generation of uh uh voters who we uh need uh uh to to to vote for us in order to get back into government the road is going to be a very long one it’s going to be a tough one Tom and I’m worried that if we rush this process we’ll jump to the wrong conclusions and make the same mistakes that we did after 1997 but you’ll have plenty of people in your party surely over the course of the next week probably tonight saying look the mass is easy reform have done really well combine the two we have a decent chance of beating labor next time that’ll be the logic won’t it yeah but it’s I’m afraid a flawed logic because uh as we can see reform will be attracting votes from all different types of people a lot of people who are disaffected with politics and the political system this is far more complex than appears at first blush if as we can see from the exit pole labor share of the vote isn’t massively as impressive as perhaps the majority suggests that begs a lot of questions about mainstream politics in our country are we actually cutting through are we actually being relevant to the lives of the people that we seek to represent that was the issue I think that confronted me on the doors day in and day out through this rather frustrating and difficult campaign and that’s where I want the conservative party now to focus we’ve done it before it’s going to take a lot of work but we can and must do it again I mean can you talk us through the atmosphere on the door did you on the doorsteps did you absolutely know this was going to be the result tonight well look I think that as an incumbent MP who’s won four elections in a tough marginal seat I’m glad to say there’s a lot of personal support out there for me however it is tinged it was tinged with a sense of pity and regret that perhaps they were saying goodbye to a hard serving a long serving MP and when when the electric gets into that sort of mode of pity and uh regret you know that uh the dice are loaded against you uh and I think that I don’t criticize people I I think it would be a mistake for us as politicians to start having a goat the electorate for making this decision electorate is always right we have to now learn from this reflect and pick ourselves up and actually get back into the aspirational mode that won a election re uh back in 2010 which saw the first of my four victories here in in South Swindon okay Robert buckin thank you very much indeed for joining us Robert well unfortunately he didn’t refer to it himself but the exit pole rather does imply that he hasn’t won tonight and we’ll see The Return of somebody who was a labor MP Heidi Alexander I just want to pick up on something that um George said in terms of the recriminations that the prime minister is going to face from his you think he’s really going to St stay up all night that feels like masochism of the worst kind but anyway what what do I know he’s obliged to I mean it seems to me that that one massively strategic error that he made uh was not to in any sense deal with the threat from reform months ago and one of the things that I lit I found absolutely astonishing actually going all the way back to the Conservative Party Conference of last Autumn was the way he was basically appeasing reform you know farage turns up at the Tory conference and the prime minister at that point can’t even bring himself to say whether Nigel farage would ever be welcome in your party and to hold a general you know reform were always always going to be the big threat to the Tes in this election you know alongside the labor Revival and not in any way to try and neutralize that threat before you call the election will go down in history as one of the most strategic errors that any was made look I mean you know in some ways there were bits of the Tory campaign like like a tax attack on labor which was quite professional but other bits particularly as they knew the timing were C you know terrible like the betting Scandal the D-Day decision but I think they you know we’ll never know the kind of parallel universe of sunak staying on waiting till the Autumn and calling the election when people expected to do but but when everybody thought farage would go to America that’s but that’s the point you see the the reason for going early that was given by everyone privately was we’ll catch reform on the on the hoof farage isn’t ready he’s not going to run if we go early yeah you know we’ll we’ll have that advantage on him and that turns out to have been a terrible mistake because they could have used the next six months to expose him and from what I understand you know we’re getting I know more detail on the exit pole you know two particular areas where the Tories have done badly are one brexit voting areas you know which shows what a short term deal that was for the Tory party and then second crucially areas with people with mortgages and you know which is solid Tory territory and if they had waited to the Autumn there would have been Cuts in the mortgage R interest rat start to fall absolutely theing stupid he calls the election on the day that inflation becomes 2% but not when the rates fall now personally that isn’t actually true by the way that isn’t actually true because um uh because because most people are now on fixed deals actually what was going to happen is people’s new fixed deals were going to be rising all the way through this year into the middle of next year even if the bank was cutting interest rates come on and expectations are everything no I’m just saying people’s their monthly BS were going up not down all through the rest of this year I mean I agree that the decision to go early rather than wait till the Autumn was a DA one but I think it’s for the birds to suggest it would have made I agree a substantial difference and isn’t the problem less that you know faraj has been appeased over the last few weeks the problem is that faraj has been appeased over the last few years you know from totally totally referendum you know through to effectively conceding with him that immigration is the big problem that the country faces and as long as the mainstream parties continue to do that reforms going to continue to be a problem you know as Jane said they’ve hurt the Tories so it seems in this election but unless labor now with that massive majority and mandate take them on then at the next election it may be labor they subance is relevant to all of this because it reinforces what e was saying earlier the lesson of the surge in reform in brexit areas is that in the end what matters to people is delivering on what they really want which is rising living standards brexit hasn’t done that for those people the discontent of those people was never really about brexit itself it was about the fact that they felt ignored by Westminster they are manifesting that protest again this time by voting for reform and it just reinforces Ed’s point that frankly L labor can conspicuously deliver for these people who voted for them this surge may be quite shortlived okay it’s worth saying at this point in the evening if Rishi sunak uh is staying up all night to witness all this it’s the least all of us uh can do to remain at our stations and perhaps for you to see what’s going to happen in the course of the night there is an awful lot to stay up for Yes the exit pole has predicted that reform are going to have uh certainly more than 10 seats according to the poll but are they is that how it will pan out will Nigel farage win his seat or will his party have a good night and he not win his seat and what about all these cabinet ministers do they survive we were just talking about some of the data there about um mortgage holders let me put that to anishka yeah as soon as I saw that this was happening what we did straight away was we created a group with the seats which have the highest number of mortgage holders you can see on the left of each seat is how they voted in 2019 and it is very very clear these seats with high numbers of mortgage holders voted Tory let’s see what the exit poll does to it an absolutely massive change you can see that difference there with all those seats going either labor or to the lib Dems and it is worth saying I was chatting today to a conservative advisor who said to me my mortgage has gone up I’m really annoyed about it as well so people are asking tonight is that the Liz trust Effect one thing I just wanted to throw in on you obviously the Tory results are terrible my phone is lighting up with conservatives saying this is not existential I guess we will see okay um you listening to George on itv’s Election coverage I I listen I think we have to keep I have pointed out it’s the worst result since 1832 you know it’s not something to be cheering about but it was a straw and you clutched it absolutely my favorite Duke of Wellington I’ll be doing a lot of that tonight yeah my favorite Duke of Wellington story was apparently when he uh ceased to be a military commander and had his first meeting of his cabinet he explained to his wife after his well I’m damned if they I gave them their orders and I’m damned if they would didn’t want to sit around discuss them for hours afterwards um Colin can I ask you to uh pick up on the exit pole and just give us a sense of further perspective about what might happen in the course of the night what you’re looking out for what might particularly be points of reference this is always this rather irritating part of the evening isn’t it when we’re waiting for a result because we really don’t know what’s going to happen and the first results that come in are not going to be particularly helpful they’re going to be from the Northeast of England where they often have this race that we’ve been talking about who’s going to be first and we will hear I think for the first half dozen or so constituencies from seats that are held by labor and which are likely to be retained by labor so what are we going to be looking for we’re going to be looking for the story of the exit pole these will be places where the brexit party stood last time so there’s already an underlying degree of which voters who take that view of politics have had their uh vote taken account of if if you like so there’s less room for reform to rise than will be the case in some of these conservative states where they’re coming from nowhere but we want to see as the conservative vote collapses and I think that we can be absolutely sure that’s what’s going to happen where have those votes gone so when Bridget Phillipson in hoton in Sun South has her majority increased quite considerably as I’m sure she will right has that been because the conservative vote has come over to her or has the conservative vote gone some to her and some to reform and we’ll see that repeated in in blly and ashington and in some of the Newcastle seats as well and that will give us an indication of how well reform might do when we see some of these more conservative leading seats coming okay you know can I I just want to ask Jane something actually because I think it’s going to be really Central to our discussion across the course of the night are look we said at the start of this program we have gone and we shouldn’t lose sight of this in the course of the evening we have gone from a very convincing Tory election victory in 2019 you know boundary changes change change the majority to over 90 we’re now talking according to the exit poll if it’s right a potential huge change to labor majority of 170 unprecedent you know if you think Blair in 97 wasn’t overturning such a big majority are we simply saying that politics is more volatile and we should get used to these things or is this just a a reflection of the fact that the Tory government had really annoyed people to an unusually high degree so lots of those things I think are true so we are seeing in the British election study data in data that we’ve just looked at today for the very first time just new data that there is more switching we think in this election than ever before so that means people switching their vote Choice from last election to this election now what has to happen for that switching to take place well first of all people have to become a little bit more fluid willing to look around looking at other parties and of course what’s really significant in this election is the smaller parties the liberal Democrats and reform the last time we saw smaller parties really eat into the two- party share was in 2015 so you kind of have to have that choice set there for people to switch to and then the other thing that’s really important is you have to have those push factors and of course you know thinking about how much of this has happened in the last few days how much of this has happened um because of a kind of Reform surge we have to remember that the election to all intents and purposes was was effectively lost in October 2022 um when the trust mini budget and the conservatives lost their um reputation for economic competence then the degree to which that’s manifested itself tonight is of course a set of you know quite recent factors so you have to have those moments in politics where people look up stand have a look at the parties and really rethink what they want to do and we’ve seen this very consistently in opinion polls this anti-conservative sentiment was very very strong and also this sense of not necessarily having a lot of confidence that labor would be much better to handle these issues so hence in that kind of vacuum the disillusionment sets in the rise of a party-like reform can take hold I’m not particularly convinced that if the conservatives had held an election later in the year reform couldn’t have even done better really careful about this I totally agree with Rob about this idea of the red wall and that you know there was this red wall of Labor seats but there was an aberration when because of brexit or because of Jeremy Corbin the red wall didn’t vote for labor in 2019 but it’s now come back to to labor and that’s all okay it’s like reversing to normal actually under brexit under Corbin was this sense of discontent that they haven’t delivered in my living standards in my community uh in housing in in my life and that discontent has not gone and it’s actually now hit the conservatives I’m discontented because of the cost of living crisis I’m waiting for the NHS and that has shifted those votes to labor but if you’re a labor MP in the red wall you’re thinking to yourself we don’t deliver in this Parliament those people could switch again and there’s one aspect of this that we have not yet talked about and which EXO can’t tell you very much about and that is turnout right I think there’s a lot of interest in we’ve been talking about people being disillusioned but voting against rather than four but how many people have actually gone to the polls it’s Fallen Bel I one really tiny but it’s an important point which we haven’t focused on at all look lib Dems looking at an almost record success labor obviously record success uh SNP 10 but it’ll still be semi- respectable vote share applied for green up we think a respectable vote share the thing that I’m going to be very interested in is what share of the overall vote left of center parties have got if it’s up significantly from last time which I think it will be that will determine two things one how Karma thinks he can govern because if the if it’s plainly the mood of the of the you know the country that it’s more left of center than it was that will have an impact on how he governs it will also I think have an impact on how the Tory party thinks it can actually win because if it’s if it’s clear that the British people are closer to the center and in a way reform is slightly Fringe then you know that’s got to be an important debate party I remember exact I was there I remember exactly the conversation after 1997 and there were conservatives who said if we become more right-wing we’ll get back the votes of the referendum party which was the Jimmy goldi party and no one seemed to say in the room OD on maybe it’s Tony Blair who’s beaten us you know the part has been beaten because Kia starma confronted the extremists in his party he kicked Jeremy Corbin out standing as a candidate and as you know has been said you know Liz trust is standing in this election Nigel farage was welcome at the Tory Party Conference you know Boris Johnson appeared on the eve of pole rally and you know it was the opposite of what the Tory party needed to do which was to move to the center which is where it wins elections okay Jeremy Corbin seat will be coming up at some point in the night of course he’s not standing as a labor candidate he’s standing an independent candidate and he may well win who knows we could have all kinds of things ahead of us in this night rash will be watching we’ll be here to talk about it all now uh big discussion around the desk as you will have seen let’s hear what the reaction is around the rest of the country from Nina and Paul thank thank you Tom hello and welcome to The Newsroom here are the main headlines so far the broadcaster’s exit poll is predicting that labor will form the next government it predicts labor will win 410 seats and have a majority of 170 the conservatives are expected to be the second largest party but would win just 131 seats with the Liv Dem set for a comeback predicted to win 61 the result would make sakir starma only the seventh labor prime minister in history tonight he thanked everyone who put their trust in a changed labor party his Deputy Angela Raina has told ITV News it’s time to move on from the Tory chaos it doesn’t matter the majority the point is is that the Mandate hopefully that K stama will have is that we could go forward now and turn the page on the chaos and the decline that we’ve seen under the conserv the result for the Tories if correct would mean the worst result in the party’s history Rishi sunak voted in his North Yorkshire constituency earlier today six weeks after calling this election Nigel farage’s surprise entrance into the race for reform UK seems to have paid off with his party predicted to win 13 seats those counts are now well underway across the country country when results do start coming in as Tom was saying you won’t miss a single one thanks to our team here in The Newsroom once one of our network of journalists phones in with the results you will see it appear on screen we’ll also have running totals at the bottom of your screen throughout the night currently you’ll see the exit pole but do keep an eye out for our ITV News election forecast too that’s when our team of experts sitting just behind me update the exit Pole to give us a more accurate prediction let’s bring you some more reaction to the exit poll though for now Paul yeah Nina plenty of reaction coming in to that exit pole including a fair bit of Fury from the conservative camp on my whatsapps but also on Twitter here’s Tori uh former Tori MP technically Michael fabricant who’s hoping to come back to Parliament saying never in the history of general elections have so many been let down by so few and not so cryptic dig there I think at rishy sunak the labor camp doing their best not to be too jubilant think in public for the moment but the mayor of London has tweeted this it’s clear that our city and our country have voted for Hope for Unity for Change and the libdem leader Ed Davey not too worried about concealing his excitement right now Democrats are on course for our best results in a century he says some of that of course is at the expense of the conservatives and that exit poll means we’re keeping track of some very senior Tory MPS who are very much at risk tonight all of these faces I think are worth keeping an eye on let’s pick out three though H firstly the chancellor Jeremy Hunt in his Su seat could be the first Chancellor in history to lose his seat the former conservative party leader Ian Duncan Smith is looking like one of the most vulnerable Tores tonight and the defense secretary Grant shaps who’s been posting all over social media during the campaign about how many doors he’s been knocking on it might not be enough for him in wellin Hatfield well let’s join our Eastern Hub correspondent now n Nar who’s monitoring that patch very closely for us and Nina it’s not just grant shaps that you’ve got your eye on this evening you know it’s going to be such a fascinating evening here in the east of England our first declaration is likely to come just after midnight and that is down in basilon and biler rii to the south of where I am a really controversial constituency because Richard Holden the Tory chair was parachuted into that constituency from his constituent op in Northeast Durham 300 miles away a lot of anger about that could reform UK take that seat from him Steven Conley has gone out of his way to campaign on the basis that he has been living in Essex since the 80s other big beasts here we’ve got business secretary KY badok Grant shaps Oliver Dow and I’m in brain Tree Home Secretary um James cleverly is here 8 miles down the Lo the road the former Home Secretary pry Patel in witam this is true blue Essex it has been for years but will it still be blue in the coming hours uh everything to play for really fascinating region yeah Nina you’re going to be very busy in the hours ahead thanks so much for that update from the east of England so Nina a lot of nervous cabinet members tonight keeping their eye on lot of lots of different counts across the country where there really could be an historic result delivered yeah we wait to see thank you Paul so those first results not far away now at around 11:30 we could get our first declaration possibly in hoton and Sunderland South and that count for Tory chair Richard Holden in bason and biler Ricky is expected to declare at midnight it’s going to get really busy really soon here in The Newsroom Tom okay Nina thank you very much indeed now uh we’ve been discussing this potentially if the exit poll is correct quite extraordinary result uh and we’ve been pondering uh yes we’re going to get a labor government doesn’t seem much doubt about that at this point unless something has gone drastically wrong what’s the new labor government going to be like what’s sakir starma going to be like uh as prime minister who better to discuss it than former labor leader uh Neil KCK self NE Neil thank you very much indeed for coming to join us this evening what do you reckon then I mean what a night if this exit poll is correct yeah I a gain of 208 according to the exit pole which is attributed directly to Kama and what he’s achieved in four years two of which of course were during the lockdown or virtual lockdown when the one thing that opposition leaders depend on contact with the public was abs and so it’s even even REM the biggest comeback since Lazarus you live through 97 how does this night potentially compare um well it’s been a bit shorter that time it was 18 years uh thanks in some respects to me not doing it in ’92 but um 14 years has appeared to be a very very very long time and of course the big diff difference is not just the incompetent of these 14 years but the decadence especially of the last five or six years which has really offended people right across the country which is why we are seeing such a a spirit of revulsion against the conservatives now it’s true that always governments lose elections rather than oppositions win them but and the same mixture occurs on this occasion governments l and the opposition makes its contribution by being credible and gaining ground but this is even more um even more graphic even more of an assertion of the public will that they will not put up up with misconduct in government mistakes everybody makes mistakes but not misconduct a nights like this a little bit bit of sweet for you I mean 92 was a totally different thing was much Clos uh you know the world was different there’s not much point in making a comparison different age sure but do you watch a labor leader about to walk into Downing Street is there just a tiny bit of you that at some point in the night thinks Could Have Been Me well last time around when Tony and Sheree walked through that door uh it wouldn’t have been human of me not to have reflected for a millisec God damn that could have been me and Glenn uh but this time I’m now ancient and I was relatively modern then but now I’m I’m a prehistoric and I must say I’m just ecstatic about the fact that an entirely Dependable fully grownup guy Kama and his wife are going to go through that door tomorrow I am I have unalloyed and unreserved Delight I think you might agree that it was quite a limited election campaign in the sense that Kira seemed to take the view there’s lots I don’t need to do there’s lots I don’t need to say I just need to give people an idea of the basics of how we’re going to be I mean you you’d probably agree that’s a fair assessment of his campaign he has done quite a few things that I think are a little bit surprising like only a few days ago saying we wouldn’t rejoin the EU in his lifetime I mean were you pleased when you he heard something like that or do you think well he wouldn’t expect me to be pleased by that well no I didn’t think he would why I’m asking the question well it’s a real IC appraisal of still where a significant proportion of the public are and unless and until people fully recognize and realize the appalling costs of the bungled conservative brexit uh and realize that the blame for what is occurring now and will occur for a long time in the future lies not with the voters but with the utter incompetence of the government and the way in which they struck a kind of a deal with the European Union and as that realization deepens and it is the tide has turned then there will be a demand for a new and comprehensive relationship now that’s what Kia and Rachel Reeves and the whole of our front bench is committed to they will begin those negotiations in short order on uh security and the development of defense capability on uh economics and trade relationships on uh the movement of food stuffs on the exchange of visas especially related to business and the study including school children you’ll see those sectoral changes uh being openly negotiated and taking place so that the relationship will be different and when Kia says he doesn’t expect re-entry to uh the European Union the single Market in his lifetime I’m certain what he has in his mind absolutely certain is a different Enterprise and um an Innovative relationship with our nearest and biggest market and of course our neighbors with whom we share continent final question very briefly looks like reform again I have a very good night what’s your reaction to that um it’s one of first of all understanding I understand why people uh want to show the revulsion against the conservatives uh and have never been particularly friendly towards the labor party and here is an alternative what bothers me about reform as it does all nationalist populists is that uh they offer very simple answers to very complex questions and it invariably ends in tears now I don’t think it’ll end in the horrors of the last occasion in which Europe was beset by populist nationalists I don’t think we live in such an era but we have to safeguard against and it means that social democracy which will become the government of this country from tomorrow for at least 5 years and I hope much longer cannot afford to fail Neil thank you very much indeed for joining this evening I really do appreciate it now um we were talking there obviously about reform one of the discussion points in the course of this evening they look like they’re going to have a very good night it seems a good moment to go to Anushka to talk about it thank you I had to bring Professor Jane green up for this one because we’re starting to see some Trends as we drill into that exit pole data and I want to talk them through with you so look on the left Boris Johnson’s Britain on the right what looks like is g to be K starmer’s Country tomorrow a huge amount of red clearly a very changed political map and Jane if we just focus in on in the 2019 colors the southeast of the country I just want to show you exactly what has happened in this particular area this is what the southeast looked like in 2019 I mean overwhelmingly blue apart from some quite different seats like Brighton there and hve in the top corner you can see all the blue down here on the map just have a look at the exit pole data so I think what’s really significant here is talking again about brexit which I kind of kind of thought we might be but maybe not to this degree right so what’s fascinating here is the liberal Democrats picking up so much support and that’s in the southeast of the country but if we looked at that map we’re not seeing the liberal Democrats make gains in other areas of the country in the Midlands or in the north that’s where the labor party is really doing very very well indeed so labor I think is a big result for labor too it is a big result for labor too absolutely so broadening support is part part of getting to that majority not just having support in the north and in their heartlands but also picking up support in the South but I imagine a lot of tactical voting here to get the Tories out labor in the two two effects of small parties that we’re talking about Tom was just talking about reform if I just pull up a group of seats where ukip did very well in 2015 this is what these are predicting tonight the left is how they voted in 2019 loads of them were Tory seat I mean these are areas that really turn towards the conservative party under bis Johnson I mean that is suggesting not only some reform seats a lot of Labor seats has reform helped labor in these type of seats exactly so you could look at that and you just think oh the labor part is appealing to leave voters but what I think is happening is reform is appealing to leave voters those people that voted conservative last time that’s dampening the conservative share that’s allowing the labor party to get ahead really significant of course we’re looking there at clacton that Nigel farage’s seat So that obviously a huge impact and obviously seat by seat we’re very careful in terms of absolutely absolutely very careful on seat by seat predictions but it’s it’s going to be hugely significant the reform are helping labor like they are here that’s the reform effect and just very quickly let me show you the Tory remain seats the seats with high levels of remain support that voted conservative last time round and you can see lots of them changing as well to labor and to the liberal Democrats do you think tactical voting is going on there absolutely so what we imagining would be happening and we’ll be looking to see just how much it’s happening in these kinds of seats is liberal Democrat voters labor voters getting a behind liberal Democrat candidates where lib Dems have the best chance of unseating a conservative or liberal Democrat voters getting behind labor if labor has the best chance and I’d imagine that’s exactly what’s going on in these parts of the country fascinating as always Jane thank you very much Tom anishka thank you very much indeed well let’s go and have a look at what’s happening in hoton and blly we mentioned ear that these are the two racing to be the first to declare it has to be said that they I think hoton has done it in 44 minutes before that certainly is the record uh we ain’t going to break that sadly uh but I believe we are Co close Luccia is there Luccia how close are we yeah Tom I think we are pretty imminent um there’s a significant crowd uh forming just here um we can see all candidates uh are up here um it’s quite an exciting moment it’s quite a tense moment of course we talked about the race that is not a race but if we do declare in the next few minutes then it will be here in Sunderland who has won that unofficial uh race to declare the first seat at the general election here we go we’re about to [Music] declare I am ready to declare the result for Horton and sundland South I Patrick milia acting returning officer hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for the Horton and sundland South constituency is as follows Richard Peter Bradley 1,723 Chris Berle 5,540 [Music] Paul Edgeworth [Music] 2,290 Bridget M philipsson [Music] 18,83 some Woods grass 11,000 668 the number of reject ballot papers was 101 the turnout was 51.2% and that Bridget May philipson has been duly elected to serve as member for the said constituency well there we are Bridget philipson is back she could soon be the education secretary may I don’t know whether she’s about to make a speech maybe the first victory of the night but uh Colin talk us through that because that looks like a pretty chunky reform vote to me I’m just going to bring up the extraordinary result really Tom in the sense that Bridget philson has hardly got any more votes than she got in 2019 the conservative party have okay Colin can I just stop you for a second let’s we’ll pick up on that but let’s hear what she’s got to say across our country as it so often is then after 14 years the British people have chosen change they have chosen labor and they have chosen the leadership of kest sta today our country with its proud history has chosen a brighter future the British people have decided that they believe as labor believes that our best days lie ahead of us hope and unity not decline and division stability over chaos a government powered by Hope by the belief that tomorrow can not just be different from today but better a government of service a government with purpose above all to change our society for good a government determined to build a Britain where background is no barrier no matter who your parents are or where you are born determined to tear down the barriers to opportunity which hold back too many of our children that is Labor’s purpose and the result today speaks to the trust the British people have put in our changed labor party and after 14 years as your labor MP in opposition I am so proud to be part of a party which has tonight not just won the trust of people here in Horton and Sunland South but of the people across Britain labor will honor the trust that you have placed in us I will honor the trust that you have placed in me and I will work every day to deliver the promises that labor has made and the better future that we each of us and all of us deserve from the bottom of my heart thank you and lastly I want to say thank you to all of the people who’ve worked hard to organize and secure today’s election and counted the votes this evening you are the people who deliver our democracy and we are grateful for your contribution my thanks to the fellow candidates here in hon and suland South for a good okay there we are the first of what will no doubt be many labor Victory speeches in the course of the night Bridget Phillipson who will almost certainly be the education secretary I mean I guess to be discussed in the course of the evening but she looks like she will be uh and clearly a some quite interesting movements of vote there I’m just Colin can I ask you to pick up I’m just going to bring up sh changing the share of the vote and then swing while while you’re talking about it let’s start with change as you do Tom what you’ll find is a quite modest increase in the labor share this rather reflects what the exit poll suggesting is going to happen actually so quite modest increase in the labor share of the vote a complete collapse in the conservative share down from over 30% to scarcely more than 13% but since n since 2019 and it’s reform who are picking up those votes on a 2:1 basis compared with labor and that shows you why they think there’ll be some constituencies where reform will pip labor to the Post in places that you might think labor would otherwise have won so to put it simply this is a swing from Tory to reform much more than a swing from Tory to in it’s a it’s a 133% um swing yes absolutely absolutely and it’s a and it’s a leave area so you know that’s not perhaps that surprising how reflective do we think it’ll be of other areas well I think it is quite it’s quite reflective but thing that I might be banging on about quite a lot in the early part of the evening as well turnout right last time the turnout here was 57% this time the turnout here was 51% so there are lots of people in hotton Sun sou who decided not to bother this time and we may be looking at the lowest turnout at a general election since 2001 which Ed of course will remember was the turnout when John Prescott told us all that everyone was so happy with the labor government they didn’t have to bother to go out and vote Jane can I ask you to explain that so the Lo turnout um yeah just I mean I I think we all thought of maybe this is group thing but I think we probably thought of this election as vs being quite motivated to want to change a government but it doesn’t look like that at all does it so there are some common factors when turnout goes down it tends to be that people don’t see a large difference between the parties and so that’s pretty consistent I think with a labor kind of modest labor campaign um in ideological terms and the other factor is that if you see a foregone conclusion if you think it doesn’t really matter if I vote because it’s obvious going to be a labor wi then you’re less likely to turn out to vote so those are two factors that are potentially depressing turnout and then you know I started off the top of the program thinking of this election as the disillusionment election you know perhaps that sense of not really seeing the real Alternatives in this particular electoral um context not really having confidence that either of the two major parties was going to make a massive difference you know some of those disillusioned voters have clearly gone to reform UK many of them may have just stayed at home but Janie in this constituency turnout’s gone down the labor vote has gone up so does that mean that the turnout is mainly conservatives staying at home you can’t tell from these um different seat shares you just can’t tell okay can I just stop you for a minute because I’ve got Margaret Hodge and John McDonald over here in the other part of the uh Studio here and we will come back to all that because it’s fascinating uh Margaret and John thank you very much indeed for joining us Margaret can I perhaps begin with you big night nor was night I never thought that we’d go from the very worst election defeat we ever had in uh 2019 to one of the very best election victories uh that we’re looking at tonight can I just say something about turnout because I think this is really interesting I was around I was I was embarking in 2001 when our turnout went down it was a low turnout and I did some work afterwards CU I was concerned about that so we did some focus groups on a particularly deprived counselor stake among Wom women what came out of that is that it’s anger not apathy that keeps people at home and I think that might be a factor today we’ll have to wait and see the analysis can be done later it was anger at the fa at that time it was a labor government and a labor Council so it was anger against us at that point now I think it is obviously anger against the Tory government and what has happened to people and their lives and the country and everything over the last uh 14 years but I think we shouldn’t think it’s apathy I think it’s probably anger John what is this new labor party that’s going to have such a huge majority where does it sit is it very much K starmer’s party do you think the left will have a serious influence on the back benches how do you think it’s going to shape up um I just want to follow on from what Margaret has said that the key element of this election was people want to get rid of the Tories that was it and the votes have gone wherever they thought they could be most effective in getting rid the some instances is labor some instan live them worryingly some instances gone to reform which I think is dangerous for democracy itself what I’m worried about well we’ve got a labor government coming in huge problems no government has ever inherited such a toxic mess from any predecessor there’s a limited program they put forward I think a program needs to be more radical eventually this first wave of the six commitments that they’ve been given so far we need to get underway quickly then I think the scale of the problems that we Face demand something more radical My worry is if we don’t do that disillusionment will set in reform will feed off that just as the far right have done right the way across Europe so I think we understand the challenges and I think having got rid of the Tories people are up for that challenge would you acknowledge that the clear lesson of tonight is that K sta was absolutely right to get rid of Jeremy Corbin to move Jeremy Corbin on and to effectively Purge the party as you would perhaps say it of significant corbon nightes I think it a I think it was a mistake I can’t agree with that the reason we’ve won tonight is because people have had enough of 14 years of the Tories full stop but but you’ve gone from a terrible election result to a massive Triumph in a very short period of time we could I look no look I would have given my right arm to stand against these toies as they are now the thing that turned is just ASM did in the past under major you was standing against Tories then who you said were terrible people but we had Liz trust Liz trust turned this a disaster we had years of austerity thanks to George Osborne This Crew then we had Boris Johnson who was congenital liar then we had Liz trust disaster and that undermined the whole economic credibility of the Tories and that was it I have to say we would never be John in the position we are today if we had not absolutely reformed uh the labor party and to be ABS honest much as I love you you had your go you had your go in 2019 and you failed us abysmally 2017 we hang on hang on hang on and this time round what we’ve done is we’ve we’ve uh we have totally reformed the labor party we’ve brought the labor party back into the center we are facing huge huge challenges but I think uh the way in which Kier and Rachel have been honest about that and said they’re going to deliver that agenda that they’ve set is a sort of it’s a it’s a it’s it’s a direction of travel so you know we’re going to do start with babies and we’re going to have more child care places we’re going onto primary schools and they going to have breast clubs we’re going on to secondary schools and they have teachers and all that is a Direction all I guess I’m saying is surely it is important to establish partly because of the future you know to when we’re discussing the future Direction over the last five years or over the next five years that what has happened tonight is was simply impossible with Jeremy Corbin as leader like inconceivable as Jeremy cor you would agree I disagree complet isn’t that like obvious just in the facts 2017 we came close to winning as simple as that we were 20 points behind and we virtually level with Theresa May at the when the poll was done 2019 was a different situation with a brexit poll and in addition to that you had someone of Tory party leader was A congenital liar people now have seen through those lies they’ve also well let me finish they’ve also seen the incompetence of the toies with Liz trust in particular and ISU soon run their campaign 2017 we lost 2017 we lost okay let’s just shut down history for a minute I think what a lot of people watching at home really want to know is they saw kiss dama go through this election campaign and I truthfully don’t think many of them have ended I mean yeah they were fed up with the Tories they didn’t really end up with a very clear idea of what a labor government was going to be like for the next four or five years so I guess my question is is it likely to be a lot more radical now you’ve got huge majority than it looked in the election campaign I think it’s really important after the era particular the Johnson and the truss era that uh we start building trust in politics what we’re seeing probably tonight in the turnout figures is a loss of trust and anger and loss of trust so that we should never promise more than we can deliver and I think that’s what uh I think that’s what uh Kia starm has done in the first instance I think if he broke his promises now and started putting up up taxes to or to fund further public services without having the growth we we’ll get nowhere but there’s lots can I just add this there is lots that he can do there is still you know the figure of between what we uh should people should pay in taxes and what they do pay has gone up it’s been unnoticed it’s now 40 billion is the gap so we can do that we can stop some of the waste on whether it’s the Asylum Seeker Seekers and we can and then we can look at growing the economy and using that money to restore Public Services the way can I just ask you that question both want to welcome the election of a labor government of course overwhelm to get rid of the choice is huge achievement thank you the reality is though I’ve got 30% of the children in my constituency living in poverty at the moment the first phase that the six promises that have been made will have some impact on that particularly the school meals elements the the breakfast clubs and all the rest of it the you want him to go much further the reality and quickly any labor government will do that if you look at the Blair government the first couple of years they held to the Tory spending plans then they become more radical what Gordon Brown did started lifting Chan out of poverty I think this government will have it set in motion this first six Promises at that stage then it will have to be more radical if the children in my constituency are going to be lifted out of poverty okay thank you very much really big night for you and your party thank you very much indeed for coming back to us uh we were waiting for the results in BL in ashington we’ve called it as a labor hold that’s not the big surprise of the night um but as we were discussing with hoton and uh sundland South it’s a question of what’s happened to the vote can I open the discussion to all of you what you’ve had time to ponder this what are you all thinking the droing turnout doesn’t S surprise me I mean I’ve not been on the stump as much as I usually am in elections but you know the lack of enthusiasm was quite marked when I was speaking to people and you know we’re not talking about the Scottish result yet but I suspect that might be a factor in the S&P showing tonight a kind of double whammy of a genuine swing to labor but also a bit of a depressed turnout amongst S&P votes but that aspect it doesn’t surprise me and I suspect that might be a feature of the results as they unfold tonight I think reform is a big big problem I suspect they will not perform anything like this in Scotland but across the UK you know Ming parties really have to get to grips with this or this is going to be a continuous destabilizing effect in years to come I mean I think the on a night when someone’s just won a massive Landslide taking their party from where John McDonald put it to Victory you know I it feels a bit childish to point some things out but it looks like the labor share of the vote is going to be quite low given the size of the majority K stama what had a negative approval rating going into polling day which was very different from Tony Blair or indeed does that matter well I think it matters because we have to we’re going to have to decide as a country and to some degree the new labor government that we’re about to have will shape this over the coming months was this a kick the Tories out use any method possible vote reform vote liberal Democrat vote labor or indeed stay at home or or was it a uh you know an endorsement of labor was it a vote for labor were they voting for the change or were they voting against the Tories and if it was Voting against the Tories because the Tories have not delivered then there’s a big challenge for labor because they don’t have a mandate for anything in particular they’ve got to satisfy that desire for a better life uh there are lots of promises that t’s made to improve life for people but as we’ve heard you know there was the disaster of Liz trust you know we haven’t talked about the kind of Promise of brexit and then tripling immigration after it and so on so you know it’s a it’s a big question I don’t want you know I it’s I’ve been in the position of being the shadow chancell who came in being Chancellor I know how difficult it is to get out of opposition into government so I’m not taking away from starma and and Rachel Reeves who who who presented a very plausible team in Downing Street but they did you know it looks like maybe it wasn’t the big vote for them it was a big vote against we’re just waiting for BL and ashington if that’s if you’re wondering what’s on screet there um we’ve called it but we’re waiting for the Declaration rob you want to get in a couple of points um what is obviously it is too early to make predictions about vote show and I suspect in okay sorry robt going to stop you right there and we’ll come back to it Northland and candidates onto the stage for the Declaration yeah yeah what I said they were walking on about to declare they were in fact about to walk on stage and assemble themselves and may be there for a while I’m reluctant to uh oh no here we go we’re in look at that hat oh my I Lucia Bridgeman returning officer for the blly and ashington parliamentary constituency hereby give notice that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows Ian ly labor party 20,30 Morin Moren Levy the Conservative Party candidate 6,121 Steve leand the green party 1,960 Mark Pier reform UK 10,857 Steven Anthony sidas liberal Democrats 1,433 and that Ian ly is duly elected as the Member of Parliament for the blly and ashington constituency okay there we have it labor back no surprise but Colin before I ask Rob to pick up again I just want to get you to talk through I’m going to pull up change and then swing yeah same again the labor vote hardly up at all conservative vote completely collapsing and reform this time taking votes from the conservatives more like you know 9 to one rather than what we saw in hotton you know it’s safe enough for labor but they actually pulled fewer votes I think if I put up swing it’ll show practically nothing won’t it yeah like a um labor to reform swing and turn that down four% to be clear the vote Chef for Labor’s only gone up because the turnout is down the actual numbers of votes pulled by in LA are down which feels pretty significant and uh and again the the reform increase is is dramatic I mean it’s you know they’ve trebled the number of almost trebled the number of votes that they’ve won in this constituency um but I wanted to look sort of talk a little bit about this this turnout issue pretty much all the opinion polls showed very large numbers of people at the end saying they weren’t going to vote um pretty much all the post well some of the pollsters believed them and some of the pollsters then actually distributed those votes in a way that in most cases showed the Tory party actually doing um a bit better than other polls now if the vote share is as low as it might be then actually and I mean I think in terms of the margin of error in terms of the the exit Pole you could end up seeing fewer Tory uh seats and more labor seats because that is what the mrps showed with lower turnouts built into their assumptions um and I have to say talking to people in both camps they are fearful of that they are fearful that dramatic as this exit pole is in terms of the number of Labor MPS and the size of the labor majority it could be even bigger than this if we get you know uh uh uh uh if those people who said they weren’t going to vote genuinely haven’t voted the these things are to a degree modeled into the exit pole in fact on but on the first two results we’ve had hotton Sund South and in BL and ashington as well the exit pole sort of under the radar figures are pretty similar to what’s actually happened in the constituencies okay I just want to pick on one thing just just briefly before we move on because we talked about it a little bit does it matter that K starma hasn’t got this massive personal popularity that Tony Blair had in 97 does it actually matter in the politics of it doesn’t matter tonight I mean he’s won a tremendous Victory so and George is right we shouldn’t try to take that away from him I think it starts to matter that the reasons behind the victory start to matter as he starts to govern I mean if this is a mass rejection of the Tories which I suspect it is more than a huge endorsement of Labor then you know particularly given that he’s gone through the entire campaign without really confronting any of the big issues that the country faces how does he then govern and how does he then deliver on the expectations that that massive majority will create and if he doesn’t quickly deliver what then starts to happen to you know support for reform to levels of discontent you know for my own party in in Scotland that may turn out to be a good thing as we approach a Scottish election but elsewhere you know what happens to that so I think it becomes an issue you know Ed is probably right there’s more of a plan there than has been shown during the election campaign but the problems right now are big more systemic more challenging than when Tony Blair came to office and the tools he has in his toolbox to tackle them and the Mandate arguably has on the big issues much much diminished is it not plausible that lower expectations at Eder are not a bad thing potentially but are there lower expectations out of a result like this why can’t he suddenly make people’s lives feel better he’s got this massive majority why can’t living standards rise why can’t we start to see improvements in the NHS and if that doesn’t happen quickly then where do people go what is what happens then I think you have to um start from the political challenge which was that in 29 labor was led by Jeremy Corbin and they lost terribly and um there were lots of people I was one of them who thought this could not be turned around in a parliament you’d have to have a Neil kinnick figure we were talking to Neil earlier who took the labor party from the ignor of defeated in 1983 all the way through to 92 and failed and finally hand it over to Tony Blair who won I didn’t think this could be done in a term and K St has done it how much that was done to Boris Johnson rather no no but but you know I think if you are K starma and you’ve won then you know I’m not sure he’s too bothered about how much it was due du to b johs or Liz trust because he’s just one they had a strategy and they’ve succeeded they’ve done something which uh which many people thought couldn’t be done you’re totally right that um The Challenge now in governing is very hard I don’t know if he’s got a plan I was saying I hope he’s got one what I’m saying is I don’t think that you should we all at this stage hope he’s got a plan because he has just won quite dramatically I do think the challenge of this Parliament is going to be very hard indeed but you have to kind of give them credit for the fact they had a strategy to allow the Tories to destroy themselves and it’s turned out the Tories were really really good at it now listen we’ve we we’ve we’ve done a little bit of explaining what’s happened if the exit poll’s correct couple of results to go on which had been interesting but what we haven’t what Jane is here to help do is explain the why so Tom I think this is going to be quite a confusing election for many people to see not by the end of this segment with you it’s not to see the conversation about has labor actually done well with this whopping majority predicted I think we just first of all let’s put that in context we talked earlier about the mountain that labor had to climb so labor had to overturn a majority of 80 there that Boris Johnson won in 2019 so that’s the first huge hurdle that they’ve not just sort of got over they’ve absolutely leapt over that hurdle that actual majority is actually slightly harder for labor because of boundary changes so they were actually then competing against this notional majority of 94 the swing required just for labor to get a majority of one was almost 133% in this election that’s bigger as we heard Ed saying earlier bigger than their swing achieved by Tony Blair when he won his Stony majority so first of all we have to kind of understand that this is an enormous achievement for a party um that is looking like it’s achieved the majority that it has the question is why how could labor indeed achieve this kind of majority and us also be talking about the labor party not being as popular as perhaps they need to be and it’s kind of one of those confusing puzzles so here we have four factors which I want to explain to you the first is I imagine and I think we’ve seen this in the exit poll so far that Labor’s vote is more efficient ly spread out so the labor party in the recent elections in 2019 and 2017 had a bit of a problem of having almost too many votes in urban areas and not spreading its votes efficiently across the country what it needs to do instead is not Stack Up votes where it’s not going to make a difference but spread that vote much more efficiently if we look at the exit pole projections that looks like it’s what’s happening tonight so that’s the first thing the second thing that can really help labor is tactical voting as well and so if we think about contest between labor and the conservatives labor might there might be a swing we’ve seen small swings between the conservatives and labor party but if the labor party then borrows votes from the liberal Democrats and say the greens that would allow labor to get over the line there we see that over the line enabling the party to get those seats now that looks like it might be happening more in remainer areas of remaining areas of the country so that’s a significant factor that helps the labor party in this particular election we expect we’ll be looking for that the third factor is of course re reform UK this is going to be hugely significant tonight and the reason that reform can do so much harm to the conservatives is that they’re almost taking all of their votes from the conservative party this was just before the election from the British election study you see 82% of Reform voters there were former conservatives and then somewhat surprisingly perhaps if you’re a reform voter you’re going to end up helping the labor party when actually you probably would prefer the conservatives this is possible because those conservatives in 2019 who liked Boris Johnson and they like brexit they’re also much more likely to like Nigel farage and so reform can do that much harm to the conservatives also because of the predecessor party last election the brexit party didn’t actually stand everywhere they didn’t stand and contest conservative candidates in this election reform UK are standing almost everywhere and this means that the labor party might benefit because the reform UK share is just taking so many votes across the country from the cons conservative party and the final factor is what looks to be happening in Scotland now Scotland has been a labor stronghold for decades until the rise of the SNP and you can see there the shareff seats for the labor party dominating in Scotland right up until recent elections with the SNP have been in real dominance in those elections but the labor party has been mounting its fight back in Scotland in the last couple of years opinion polls have shown labor taking much more support in Scotland and the S&P support falling away but the crucial thing to understand in Scotland is that things are on a knife edge and there are so many marginal seats in Scotland so many tight races so much independence based tactical voting that this could be why we’re seeing a a very significant decline in SNP seats and a very substantial gain for the labor party helping the labor party potentially get this very significant very large Landslide majority tonight okay that’s it the C explained you can all go to bed now no I don’t mean that I’m joking you could please don’t go to bed there’s so much drama to lie ahead of us Jane thank you very much indeed for all that very clear explanation of what is happening uh a night of drama awaits Peter Smith is in Edinburgh for some of it Peter what are you hearing what do you make of what you’ve heard so far uh what do you make of the exit pole what is the reaction there well that’s a lot to take in there Tom but if we’re talking about a night of significant change across the UK well what’s happening in Scotland is the end of a decade of SNP dominance and that change cannot be understated 17 years in government as Nicholas sturgeon in your studio has mentioned and as say say 10 years of completely dominating uh the elections both the general elections and the Scottish Parliament elections and tonight they we’re looking at the labor party in Scotland coming from relative Wilderness let’s not forget they had just won one seat at the last a general election here in Scotland and they could be on course if this exit pole is to be believed to have a majority in in Scotland I would say that there’s some people here who are a bit skeptical about this exit pole and the accuracy of it in Scotland especially as Jane mentioned there are so many marginals about a quarter of the seats in Scotland a quarter of those 57 seats that the pollsters regarded as just too close to call we’re talking about a difference of a few 100 votes could make a a big change in who actually claims many of those seats but we’re talking about now is that something significant is happening when the SNP are telling me that they’re not entirely sure they’re going to hold on to dunde Central that was their safest seat in Scotland that would require a swing of more than 16% for labor to take it that gives you some indication of just how seismic this change is I also think it’s interesting to to note that this was a different election here in Scotland yes it was about the future of the NHS it’s about housing it’s about child poverty about the cost of living crisis but it was the SNP who decided to put Independence front and center of their election campaign page one line one of their Manifesto the architect of putting Independence front center of this general election campaign is in our studio tonight Nicholas sturon she was the one who said that this would be a de facto referendum on Independence to give the people of Scotland the opportunity to have their say on Scotland’s future in the UK because that was a an opportunity that was being denied when prime minister after prime minister said no to a second Independence referendum this general election was supposed to be that def back to referendum now since Nicholas sturgeon left as party leader in first minister of Scotland the Hamza YF and now John swinny as as the SNP leaders that have taken over have kind of downgraded that a little bit but the clear message in the S&P Manifesto in this election as I say on page one line one front center a vote for the SNP is a vote for Independence John swiy told me a vote for the SNP is a vote for Independence and he told me as well a vote for any other party risks damaging the independence cause going forward Steven Flynn the snp’s leader at Westminster told me in an interview Independence is on the ballot paper now I’m being told by some of the people here tonight some of the SNP staffers who are saying well this was about change at Westminster we’ve been caught up in this election about kicking out the Tories but the SNP set the terms these were their terms this was also about independence in Scotland and if this exit pole is to be believed the people of Scotland have had their say and perhaps the message is that Independence for them is not a priority right now that’s going to be something that’s going to be carrying into the next election because what’s crucial Tom is that although prime ministers have ignored the SNP and said no now is not the time now is not the time Nicholas St was in the receiving end of a few of those uh messages back from starting with Theresa May after the brexit vote and there was a huge clamor to have another vote in Scotland but what I think is important to remember is that if the SNP had won a majority on these terms that were crystal clear that I vote for the S&P as a vote for Independence it would have been extremely hard for Kier starmer to shrug that off it would have been a thorn in his side for the next 5 years they would have to address it have to acknowledge it that the people of Scotland had an opportunity to have their say and they would have backed that message the people of Scotland had the opportunity and it does not look like they have backed that it’s now going to be much much easier for prime minister Kier starmer to ignore any future calls the SNP will say they still have a mandate for a second Independence referendum going back to 2021 that Hollywood vote the pro uh Independence parties have a majority at Hollywood but it’s going to look pretty weak when we’re seeing such a heavy defeat when they put Independence front and center of of their campaign in this election and what I would say Tom is that there will be people who are watching ITV tonight who might have previously watched other other channels because they’re Keen to hear from Nicholas sturgeon on this with Independence front center say she was the architect of putting it so prominently on this election campaign they’ been wanting to know what her analysis is what next for not just the SNP but next for the independence cause what does it mean for the independence cause and perhaps to see if there might be a Mia cul or two in that assessment okay Peter thank you very much that feels like I think Peter okay no simple question was it a mistake I mean it’s you were you were clearly the architect of you had a frustrating time you made clear that if you uh won the Scottish parliamentary elections that you would consider that a mandate for Independence you didn’t you didn’t get any joy and you were in a frustrating corner but it was your decision to continue to put it front and center was it a mistake and do you accept that this is the cause off the agenda now for perhaps 5 years no I don’t and I think that’s a foolish conclusion for opposition parties to reach but I’ll come back to that in a second um I think Peter’s analysis is is not uh unexpected there I I’ve got a feeling he’s had that pin up within him for quite some time um he’s an old sparing of partner yeah um look I think the I think one of the questions out of the SMP result tonight is whether they’ve kind of left themselves between two stools on the independence question because I think in my view it wasn’t really put front and center having it on the you know line one page one of the manifesto gave that impression and allows journalists like Peter to make the point it was there it was the big issue and people have cast The Verdict on that but it was never followed through on in a day-to-day basis in the campaign we didn’t hear day after day after day S&P spokespeople make the case for why you know Independence was an answer to the big issues at the heart of the election campaign you know cost of living brexit ET ET so we’ve kind of Fallen between two does but don’t you dig yourself into an Ever bigger hole if you keep saying Independence is the answer and no one’s going to give you a referendum and there’s nothing you can do about it well I mean that’s a massive challenge for democracy in Scotland and that you know if if it continues to be the case that and I’ll come back to the question does this set the independence cause back if if the S SMP you know has a reversal of the the scale that the exit poll is suggesting of course that will be a conclusion but a lot of the people if not the majority of people uh who in this election have shifted from the S&P to labor they still believe in Independence they haven’t shifted their opinion on Independence so it might take the issue off of the immediate sort of agenda for Kier starmer but it would be I think foolish to suggest that the independence uh question has gone away problem is Tom there is just a problem of logic here problem of logic um I had this conversation on Good Morning Britain with Steven Flynn the S&P uh leader and Westminister just a few days ago because John S said at the beginning of the campaign if the S&P win more seats than labor then that is a mandate for a referendum but logically if they therefore don’t win more seats than labor it’s not a mandate for referendum it’s impossible to look at this result and say if the EXO is right this is not a setback for Independence what you said to Peter Smith in an interview yesterday so I think I think I think John SMY now accepts the logic of the point I wasn’t arguing that to be but the point is if labor wins more than seats in the S SMP because of the strategy of saying winning more seats gives a m let me cut to the quick I think what I was saying is is not actually arguing against that is if you’re going to put Independence at the heart of The Campaign which putting on the you know line one page one of the manifesto arguably does then to make that an effective strategy or to try to make that an effective strategy you’ve got to follow it through into the day-to-day campaigning that’s the bit I don’t think the back your successors failed um well look that’s what you’re saying they didn’t do what you wanted in terms of making the case and therefore they failed I might have failed as well you know I might have put it at the heart of the campaign and a more meaningful S I might have failed as well we will never know that you know because we can never put that to the I think if you’re going to put it at the heart of the campaign you really then have to do that in substance not just okay in two questions to close this off one if either of you were in government leaving Nicolas aside for a moment over the next 10 years is there any chance at all in any circumstances you would Grant another Scottish referendum well the short answer is no and I was because you nearly lost the first one no but we won it and I think that strategy of David Cameron’s to call the vote then did succeed it stopped Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and here we are 10 years later and Independence is further away than so that is Nichol if Nicholas party keeps arguing it and does win elections again could you really turn around and say no well to Ed’s Point first of all you know the S&P are doing very badly tonight you know tonight yeah but who knows and second you know this challenge the only s circumstance realistically in which the House of Commons in Westminster is going to Grant a referendum again is if you have a labor minority government that relies on SNP votes in a hung Parliament there’s no other situation in which any other part is ever going to do this again and that was a risk never again well I think it’s highly unlikely it and and the call that becomes problematic if the SNP do start winning in Scotland again let me just yeah we’ve established uh legally uh that only the Westminster Parliament can grant a referendum so they can’t have a referendum just in Scotland that would be a kind of catalonian style referendum and would be illegal so then you you try and imagine the circumstances okay in the foreseeable future for the next 10 15 years and you would say the only circumstances where labor has a minority relies on S&P votes because they’re never to are never going to rely on S&P votes because the S&P will never prop up a t government and I would say 18 months ago there was a plausible argument that Kama wouldn’t do well enough in this election that there would be a hung Parliament there was a big you know talk well maybe therefore he would Grant an independence referendum and tonight you know of course that seems further away than never because he’s won a big majority in most Independence polls you know 50/50 for and against but you look at the demographics behind the headline figures and in younger age groups and this is not changing as people get older you support for Independence is 60% 65% 70% effectively what you’re saying is there’s no way or there should be no way for people in Scotland to express their support for Independence and that is deeply problematic I’m the I’m part of the team that gave Scotland that chance they had a vote and Scotland voted to stay in the UK I just bring back to tonight where and results are coming in it’s only that sort of getting reports from sort of Tories on the ground round in two seats so um actually I think that the exit pole would imply that Steve Baker hasn’t won in Wickam but on the ground I’m hearing that they think he may well have won because there is a big Muslim vote there and uh as I understand it Tories on the ground think that those Muslims have voted for him and so he may scrape through but also interestingly I think there are deep fears and we may get this result quite soon that Richard Holden the T chairman May well have lost in basilon and biller Ricky where they are expecting a really dramatic reform uh Surge and he also made himself very unpopular with many Tory members partly by parachuting himself in but also parachuting other people in they we very because we passed over it on the if the exit pole shows some pretty spectacular Tory losses in alers shop Alsbury basing Stoke City of London Chelsea I’m being told that my neighbor old neighboring seat mfield has been lost you know there are some going to be some quite spectacular okay I’m going to get up from the desk because over there I have uh the man who very well might soon be running our in fact almost certainly probably will be running our foreign policy um along with the prime minister of course David Lamy welcome uh the shadow foreign secretary perhaps soon to be the foreign secretary I guess congratulations are in order you must be simply punching the air for most of this evening so far well look Tom this is my eighth general election and if you’re a labor supporter and you’ve been in Parliament 24 years you the truth is we lose more than we win these results are encouraging but we’ve only had two seats out of 650 so a little bit of measure at this um stage quite hard to be measured when the exit pole out there says you’re going to have a majority of 70 no doubt about it the exit pole will cheer lots of people across the country but there’s a lot to play out I think over the next few hours we’ve seen the reform vote I still can’t quite believe that the conservatives are down to the sorts of numbers that are being predicted that’s just my sense uh but let us see let us see what I can say is that I do think that this is a positive vote for labor it’s a positive vote for kir starma and the way that he changed our party in order to have the promise of changing the country and 4 and a half years ago I think it was um I remember him sitting in my kitchen at home uh we were obviously reflecting on him running to lead the labor party and I said to him this is a 10-year project and he said no it’s a 5-year project and the truth is he was right he had conviction he’s demonstrated that and I think the offer that we set out to the country as well um a measured carefully fiscally costed offer the country responded to because they they’ve had enough of the RAS okay we’ll talk about the big stuff in a minute because you’ve you you you know you’re about to have this enormously uh important job potentially but can we just for a moment talk about the human factor because I you know I I don’t feel people necessarily think they know kir starma that well what what do you think he’s feeling tonight I mean is it just unbelievable relief because he’s been wor working Round the Clock and he thinks he’s probably made it is it is he a bit daunted I mean what do you think he’s thinking if he’s sitting at home watching this well knowing the man um he’ll be thinking he’ll be ging himself because he knows that all the results have not yet come in uh but he certainly will be thinking if he is to go to number 10 about the next few days um NATO next week yeah uh in Washington DC uh the European political Community which is a huge moment All European leaders arriving at Blen and Palace so he will be focused on the job at hand um and he will be sticking to the plan um he set out a course he will be sticking to it and absolutely clear that he has to deliver for working people a and the truth is when we see the tide of nationalism across Europe and in other parts of the world he knows if he doesn’t deliver for working people then populists and those with a different account of how you deliver will be coming back and we’ll be biting on our heels okay I think what a lot of people want sitting at home are going to be thinking about you and K St at this point is you will be having potentially to deal in America if president Trump wins with a man who you literally have nothing in common with politically either of you don’t have anything in common you’ve got the rise of romblon national in France equally must be just how are you going to establish relationships with these regimes that you just don’t have anything in common with if Trump wins in particular we’re Democratic countries uh we all understand the big Democratic fight we’re discussing well you say that he doesn’t even accept the results of a democratic election Tom we have a formidable intelligence capability our Armed Forces demonstrated how acting together they can stop drones um uh coming into countries like Jordan and Israel just a few months ago um for lots of reasons with the world as it is and the world is a pretty dangerous St more conflict in the world than at any time since the second world war of course the United States uh and our country along with our partners will act together and we will work with whomever the American people will decide um should be the incumbent of the White House there’s a lot of water to pass under the bridge I might say uh before convention season starts uh uh later on this month of November um so we’ll watch the ups and downs but if we do get over the line tonight I look forward to working with with um uh Tony blinkin and Joe Biden over the coming months and then we’ll see uh who takes the helm in November or keeps the helm do you think Joe Biden will be the candidate in the end oh look I I I’ve got too election too too many friends of the democratic party reflecting on that question I have no idea um that is for the American people that is for the American people we will work who whomever they choose okay last question you’re walking into potentially an enormous job at a very dangerous time how worried are you about the state of the world that you’re gonna have to deal with well look the last person who had the benefit of two and a half years reflecting on the role was William hag um and whilst William and I don’t share the same politics um he was an effective foreign secretary I set out a vision it was reconnecting the UK with the global community and something I described as Progressive realism and in thinking about that I was thinking of bevon after the second world war Atley asked him to go out into the world he found it to be a very dangerous place he committed us to the the nuclear deterrent and he birthed NATO uh which has proved to be so effective over so many generations so that’s the world we face it’s a tough world we must act with our allies we must be hard-headed but we are still the sixth richest economy in the world we are we still have a seat on the um un Security Council we’ve got outsize um uh soft power there’s a lot going for us if we can Rec out of Interest are you in touch with David Cameron of course I’m in touch with David you speak to him and is is there like a Handover that you all have or I saw David Cameron uh last week um we had a very good conversation I’m not going to reveal what what we said but obviously about the details uh of the job and we have had very good access talks over the course behind the scenes over the course of the last six or eight weeks okay David let me thank you good luck thank you very much for joining us we are going to sundland Central ready to declare the result for sundland Central I Patrick Mia acting returning officer hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for the Sunland Central constituency is as follows Lewis Malcolm Atkinson 16,8 52 Chris Aon 10,779 Rachel Sarah Featherstone 2,993 NY Dan Hudson 3,602 Greg peacock 5,731 the number of rejected ballot papers was 99 the turnout is 52.6% and that Lewis Malcolm ainson has been duly elected to serve as member for the said constituency okay there you have it a result from Sunderland Central but you’ll have seen at the bottom of your screen there that Robert Buckland who was speaking to us only a short time ago from his constituency in Windon South is out I don’t think that’s a particular surprise because he effectively announced on air that he felt like his constituents was saying goodbye to him which I think uh he probably took as a sign and we perhaps took it as a sign George you want to just jump in on Robert Buckland and you know the first thing is Robert you know actually had the guts to come out and do an interview on this paragram weed that whereas we’re getting a string of very senior labor people including the foreign secretary to be and uh the T and the deput leader Angela Raina and the Tories have all kept their head down so first of all I think Robert gets the medal for jumping out of the trench uh but unfortunately he’s been shot and politically so um yeah I mean I don’t think he would have been that surprised that was a seat you know labor can win this and still not get an overall majority so you know it’s not that surprising but this was the kind of bellweather seat that Blair won off the Tories and then Cameron won off Blair and it is a sign in Middle England I mean there couldn’t be a more England seat than Swindon South and Swindon North uh which will be a more interesting seat because actually if they windwind to North that shows there’s going to be a l majority but um you know this is the absolute classic bellweather seats which are starting to come in now H and we’ll determine the shape of the night but as I say there are also going to be some seats that have never not been Tory that have being lost tonight as well um worth just noting while I’m talking on sundland the Sund as it had uh again labor vote down reform vote dramatically up okay let’s ask J comment on that we just bring up the change in the share of the vote yeah the labor votes down over 2,000 I mean if this is happening U more widely this is more worrying for labor right well but this is what we were suggesting from the exit pole that labor were doing well in places where the conservatives were quite strong and not doing so well in their own areas so of those three Northeast results we’ve had in so far tonight the labor vge is up just three points on 2019 conservatives are down by 20 and reform is up by 16 and so it just shows you that this whole I don’t know what we’d call it Jane the the brexit factor or something is just has not gone away it’s not gone away it’s not gone away and I think you know what’s interesting here is just seeing how just how much that reform share is doing um so much damage to the conservatives and you know what we would wait to see in a seat like Swindon South is also where reform has the potential to make an even bigger impact because the brexit party didn’t stand last time can we assume that you know the labor vote when it goes down none of those people are switching to reform I mean reform does appeal also to dis affected labor voters yeah I mean this I agree on a much smaller scale you definitely can’t this if we’re going to talk about the politics of the next five 10 years you know this is this requires decent polling after the event to find out exactly what what people have been doing in terms of switching parties or indeed staying at home sorry I’m banging on about this again turnout down by over seven percentage points as I was saying to you the doorstep mood in labor areas in the final days was drifting to reform from labor voters but it would be it would take something so big for that to be a significant chunk of reforms vote but just have to it’s only at the margins on these likely to be at the margins I mean I think it’s there could be the shap happening let us go to Nina for a summary of what is happening across the country thank you Tom welcome back to The Newsroom here are the uh main headlines Labor’s Deputy leader Angela Raina has told ITV News it’s time to move on from the Tory chaos after the broadcaster’s exit poll predicted labor will form the next government it predicts labor will win 410 seats the concern conservatives 131 with the lib Dems moving back to be the third biggest party in Parliament the result would make sakir starma the country’s seventh labor prime minister working with a majority of 170 it doesn’t matter the majority the point is is that the Mandate hopefully that K stama will have is that we could go forward now and turn the page on the chaos and the decline that we’ve seen under the conservatives as the first results start to come in now hoton and Sunderland South won the race for the first declaration and it’s a shadow cabinet minister who has held her seat for labor lucrecia was watching lucrecia they did it yeah they sure did they Sunderland returns to former glory they did it at precisely 12 minutes past 11 the first seat to be declared at this general election we just had another one coming here it’s Sunderland Central um you can hear um the labor MP Lewis Atkinson just finishing up his uh Speech and you know what I was speaking uh to Bridget philipsson um who was MP now again reelected for hotson and Sunderland South and you know I asked her about what she made of her Victory but also what the exit pole was saying about this potential labor Landslide and she says it’s all down to Sak St he’s turned the party around but look at the results here as well look what reform is doing here in labor Heartland in Sunderland and it’ll be really interesting to see how that place plays out nationally over the next few hours yeah we watch and we wait lucrecia thank you very much if the exit pole predictions are correct it would mean the worst result in Con the conservatives party history and it would mean the lib Dems are set for a comeback the exit poll is predicting they will win 61 seats as the night goes on the party’s leader Ed Davies said they are on course for the best result in a century thanks to a positive campaign putting Health and Care at its heart well those counts are now well underway across the country where in the majority of places there are new constituencies with a host of new names Paul has more on this and how the newspapers have reacted to the exit poll Paul yeah thanks Nina the newspapers have been holding the front pages of course for that exit poll they probably already had them drafted though in reality didn’t they and they didn’t need to tear them up either the telegraph goes quite simply for labor Landslide at the mirror headline K we go you can see what they did with that one there while the sun says Britain sees red of course the sun backed labor just a couple of days ago and the Daily Express says crushing blow to Tory party in election Wipeout well it could be a very personal wipe out for many of the most prominent Tories including as we’ve been discussing the chancellor Jeremy Hunt he faces a fight to defend one of the many new constituencies created by changes to boundaries at this election so take for example his old seat of Southwest Sur here which has now become the seat of ging and Ash and as you can see it’s made up of parts of four different constituencies at the last election across the country the electoral map has been redrawn like that because of changes in population and that means that while in 2019 Boris Johnson won a majority of 80 seats as you can see here actually rishy sonak technically goes into this election defending majority of 94 seats because of those boundary changes the boundary Chang has really helped the conservatives far more than they help labor so when we’re looking about all the results tonight we are taking this into account in our exit poll and we’re comparing against what the result would have been in 2019 had that election been fought on the 2024 boundaries so quite a few changes in at this election but none of those boundary changes it looks tonight are going to affect the most important result of all which is of course the overall outcome of this election yeah Paul thank you lots still to come tonight then at around 1:30 we’re expecting to get the Declaration for the Tory leadership hopeful KY badok in Essex Northwest we’ll start to get some key results in Scotland too at around the same time 1:30 we’re expecting a declaration from abedine South that’s the count for the S&P Westminster leader stevenh Flynn but for now that’s all from us here in The Newsroom Tom Nina thank you very much indeed well we’ve been debating over the course of the last couple of hours what the shape of this new labor party is going back 6 months or so I don’t think anyone could have imagined that in reality we would end up with an enormous labor victory in the way that we have had tonight and what looks like a very very significant collapse uh in the number of T seats but given how little really sakir starm has said uh about what a labor government is and is not going to do I think we’ve all agreed his election campaign was quite Limited in scope the big question is what is this new party Anushka has some of the answers and Ed those that she doesn’t at least talk to you a bit about who might be on Labor’s back benches in a minute but just before I did I just wanted to show this to you Ed now this is about reform and it’s where reform comes second according to the exit poll now we’re being very careful with reform and the exit pole because there’s huge margins of probability with them they’re a difficult actual party to judge for this but they’re going to come second according to the exit pole in 155 seats so all of these and then have a look at this all of these just to put that in context in 2015 ukip on the old boundaries came second in0 seats only and Ed I just wanted to ask you this one question about this I was asking K starma on the campaign about reform about Nel farage and it was really notable that he did not want to engage he kept saying oh I’m just not going to ignore I’m going to ignore noises off I said to him that’s rude to the millions of people who might want to vote for reform is there a risk that reform can come back and bite labor somewhere very polite in the future well I think if you’re K starma and you look at that graphic the first thing you think is they’re all red they’re all labor and frankly who’s come second in this election is less important than who’s won and labor has won these that’s a bit short term isn’t it no but I’m just saying you look it’s election night and these are labor seats and the reason why they are labor seats is because reform is taking votes from the conservatives K starma has said that we’re not joining the European Union in his lifetime he blocked off that risk can I ask you can I interrup you for is this why pardon is this why he’s I mean I was a little bit surprised that he said that yesterday that he we weren’t joining in his lifetime the EU I wasn’t sure that he you know like you might think well why does he need to say that why does he need to be so categoric is this exactly the reason look look I don’t know if that was a planned intervention but he will definitely have been told if you ask that question close it down because we don’t want to see a drift of Labor voters to reform and we’re not joining in my lifetime he says he’s not Jeremy Corbin and fundamentally though the the anst the worry about living standards the NHS life in Britain has been hitting the conservatives rather than labor because it’s conservative government we had for the last 14 years and that’s why all those Tory votes who’ve been going to reform they’ve come second but labor wins however what the point is if living standards don’t rise if the NHS doesn’t get better that angst shifts over to labor that’s the risk for labor regardless of it regardless of the leader if things don’t get better there will be seats other than these when suddenly um labor is under a lot more pressure I mean speaking to labor strategists one of the big reasons they say they focused on lead voters was because it gives them that more efficient spread of the vote which we appear to be seeing tonight let’s just have a look at those back benches um I think we can pull up one particular group which you might say has been a little bit marginalized in the labor party and that is the kind of group on the left over here so this is the Socialist campaign group this not very long long ago basically ran the labor party people like John mcdonnald who you obviously speaking to Diane abber Zara Sultana there are around 28 of them we think which when you put in the context of a party of 410 doesn’t feel huge I’ve got to say it’s a massive achievement for the starma government the way they have been so so ruthless in rooting out campaign group candidates if you go back to the conservatives in 2010 when David Cameron and George took over the conservative party pro- European Centrist conservative MPS were shifting decisively to the right I remember the first rebellion of having a referendum where I voted with David Cameron George Osborne Ed Miland and Me Against a referendum I think there was 75 close to 100 in the next one votes from conservative backbenchers who were all voting in that direction K starm has been very tough that number would have been a lot higher in 2019 they’ve really paired it back Tony blow was less factional um well I think that is that that is true I mean look the campaign group under Tony Blair was comparable to those kind of numbers but under Jeremy Corbin it got bigger it’s been shrunk again and then the Tribune stuff I think you have to be let me ask about this right so Tribune is this middle group right so there’s actually dozens of Labor mpes who would consider themselves tribun they call themselves soft left you’ve got people like Ed millerand like Louise Hay who’s going to be the transport secretary at the front Clive efford who chaires it I put actually Matata farer at the back she’s going to be a new MP because somebody from each one of these groups told me that she’s a rising star but one thing they do tell me they sayette Cooper of course is in that group as well they do tell me that they plan to put pressure on K starma on two particular policies wealth taxes and lifting the two child benefit cap do you think that will happen look I’m not quite sure who this they uh is I don’t think that they meet at a group with a Manifesto I wrote a column for the tribun newspaper Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were members of the Tribune group as far as I understand have to woo them and as far as I understand it K star was a Tribune MP as well it’s kind of it’s a loose group but it will change now labor goes into government because it’s backbench Tribune members who have a a voice and a significance once you have a labor government and I think that you’re right those Tribune MPS who are Center ground within the labor party they’re not the right or the Blair right right they aren’t the hard left either left in the country yeah but but um within the Parliamentary labor party and they will be saying we want more action on tax we there’ll be lots of who don’t like that two child limit and there will be pressure on Rachel Reeves in K from those groups but to be honest that’s what happens in politics interestingly you know if labor wins a lot of these seats in the Southeast which maybe it’s projected to do there’ll also be rather a lot of newly elected MPS in formator seats on the edge of cities and towns saying Kel re we know you want more houses we know you want planning reform but there’s a lot of green belt in my constituency and be a bit careful about your concreting over plans you Builders rather than blockers so there’s there’ll be pressure from from other areas as well okay we spoke to Robert Buckland uh earlier in the evening a rare appearance by a senior Tory tonight and he made it very clear he was going to lose his constituency he has indeed as we’ve already reported lost his constituency let’s hear what he had to say about [Applause] it well I would like to add my thanks to the returning officer and the incredible counting team that makes Swindon one of the most efficient counting centers in the United Kingdom I know you’ve all been working for much of the day and for the rest of the night there are many friendly faces here who will we need to rely on for democracy to happen and that’s what’s happened tonight I’d like to thank the people of Swindon South as well or should I say South Swindon to seat that I had the honor of representing for 14 years through four elections although it was not to be for a fifth time I owe a huge debt of gratitude to the tens of thousands of fellow residents who have supported me over the years and who continue to do so at this election and to those who didn’t I I say my good wishes and that my hopes go with you for the future of our town my home and our country and I want to thank Heidi for her heartfelt words and I genuinely wish her well she is a person who comes to this with Good Will and the right motives and I’m glad that on a personal level she’s able to serve once again I want to thank my family my wife Shan my children who have through the 20 years that I have been candidate and MP here uh put aside their priorities not not just for mine but for the people who I served and for my incredible campaign team uh who uh ignore the national polls and work day and night to help me uh uh in this campaign and I owe them a huge debt of gratitude now tonight’s result means that I cannot for the time being be a direct participant in our parliamentary process which you know I value and love dearly I I’m proud of the work that I’ve done to advance the course of autistic and disabled people in our country and people who live in abusive and controlling domestic relationships and the victims of serious crime in particular I’m deeply proud of the investment that I’ve helped to secure for Swindon from the new A&E at GW to the vitally important Heritage work at the health hydro and the Honda site Redevelopment but there’s much more of course to do I wish Heidi well and I know that she will carry on the work that I have started now our very political system is okay Robert Buckland notably generous speech there to his labor opponent George I’ll ask for your reaction in a moment but Colin can I just bring you in to talk about what’s actually happened here let’s just look at the change in the share of the vote maybe you will see the conservative share of the vote has halved and we’re now talking about a very different part of the world to Sunderland and blly the V part of the world that only reasonably narrowly voted leave it’s not what you call a big leavey area but it seems to me that electors there like everywhere else said no we don’t want any more to do with this conservative government but they have found somewhere to go to express their their discontent to express their dissatisfaction with how things are going some of them sure have gone to labor but many of them even here have gone reform this is somewhere where the brexit party did not have a candidate at the last election and for a southern English seat you know on the commuter fringes of London you could almost say the kind of places that you expect to take a rather different attitude to reforms policies than would be happening some of the Left Behind areas of the country this is quite extraordinary and it just you know we’re back to what Ed’s been talking about this evening is this you know have they found somewhere in reform that they can express their dis contempt because they didn’t want to go all the way over to labor which means that labor still hasn’t sealed the deal as I think Tony Blair thought he had done in 1997 in rather different circumstances I mean uh very generous as you say of Robert to his labor opponent and a model for how to concede um I just want to pick up something Ed said because I think it’s relevant to Swindon which is okay so we’re going to have a labor government what about policy they’re going to be a load of Labor MPS for green belt seats across the southeast and K dama and Rachel Reeves’s big growth plan is to build on those green belts and that is going to be very hard to deliver with for these labor MPS they’re going to be there’s going to be strong local objections and it’s going to be hard for the government and will it’ll be a real test of whether you know they’re prepared to be bold and risk the majority and then second I think European policy you know I think a lot of people you know I’m of course someone who passionately believed Britain should not leave the EU hoped that if we got K starmer into Downing Street he would find a way to kind of get back into the Customs Union even if he didn’t call it that find a way to rejoin bits of the single market during the campaign he did occasionally say I want a much better relationship with the EU if you’re the labor political strategist you’re saying God’s sake you can’t do that look at reform it’s you know it’s growing it could be a threat to us at the next election and at the same time you’re going to have the treasury saying well if you want to pull a lever to try and get Britain’s economy growing you need a better trade deal with Europe and that will be a real I’m going to come to you just I think it’s going to be quite a feature that the European policy is going to be off the table when it was one of the most obvious growth op options available to a new labor government before I come to I just want to ask you Nichol you sat opposite kir stama when he was the shadow brexit secretary and you discussed this for many hours with him what conclusions did you reach well at that time he he certainly gave a good impression of being a thoroughly pro-european politician and individual and seemed very passionate and sincere about it I suspect deep down inside he still is you know I mean I think George Pro European I mean he’s definitely Pro European it was Pro EU I he’s probably Pro EU as well he’s just not in favor of Britain rejoining it um well I mean I think that goes to the the heart of the issue we’re talking about here I think George is right in terms of the conclusions that will be drawn from the result tonight but I actually think it probably stores up even more difficulties because you know what’s driving the disaffection that has driven people into the arms of Reform arguably what drove support for brexit is you know falling living standards broken public services and arguably brexit and the the fractured relationship with Europe is making it almost impossible to deal with those underlying issues so you know it’s it’s this kind of bind that politicians have got themselves into that both labor and the Tories have got themselves into and you know yes it is absolutely the case that laboral will look at the reform vote and say we can’t possibly confront the relationship with Europe H but actually if they were been really Brave they would take the majority and try to do that and then tackle some of the underlying issues that might actually deal with the reasons people are voting for reform in the first place I mean three very quick things I mean to George’s point about building on the Green Belt when you’ve got a majority let’s say for argument sake of 180 you can afford to annoy quite a lot of your MPS he knows that if he’s not going to put taxes up he really has to do something pretty radical to get the growth rate up he does need to reform he does need really to scrap lots of the planning restrictions they know it’s going to upset quite a lot of people but you know he’s now in a position to say for the good of the country I am going to have to upset some communities I think so I think that’s quite likely and the other thing just on I hope that’s right because it’s what the country needs but then on the point about you know whether it’s joining the Customs Union or the single Market or the EU one of the things that your party has pointed out fairly consistently during this campaign is the ability of Kara to change his mind pretty radically when the so-call facts change his position is not what it was two years ago and it is not beyond the Realms of possibility that he adopts a rather different position on joining the EU one closer to the one that you think the more rational one okay we we we there’s only one person who I’ve spent more time talking uh about brexit with on ITV News programs some Robert and that’s Jane I feel Jane you have things to say on this subject so I think there’s a couple of things that are interesting about reform one is not to kind of I almost caricature these voters as thinking that they’re just Pro rexit voters who don’t like immigration voters are moving from conservative party to the reform in greater numbers if they feel economically insecure so a lot of this is also about the economy it’s also about bread and butter issues um but we can also see and we have a graph that we can show just how difficult this tension is going to be for the two major parties over the coming months and years if we thought that the brexit divide in vote Choice was over we need to think again because the labor party here on the leftand side has over 80% of its voters who would still vote to rejoin the EU in another referendum if it happened again whereas the conservative party has almost 80% of its supporters who would still vote to stay out so the brexit um divide is alive and well it’s bubbling there below the surface as we’re seeing also with the results it’s also becoming again a very important factor for where the votes are going at the constituency level um so this is going to continue to be a divisive really difficult political tension in British politics okay I fear we will be discussing it for many many many uh months and probably years to come um but I’m very pleased to say to talk on a separate subject which we haven’t been talking about for a bit Baron VY is here um Tori Pier of course um where would we start what a catastrophe but I think the interesting story of the night has got to be reformed I think following on from what Jane has just said um that actually for me what’s fascinating is and let’s see how the night turns out whether uh the vote that we’re seeing for reforming these constituencies actually translates into winds um I’m not entirely confident that the number of seats that have been predicted on the exit pole may be met Maybe I’m Wrong on that but uh there’s something definitely going on here with the Tory vote collapsing and the reform vote increasing and I think it’s really important for us to understand that understand that one in terms of what’s Happening across the country but understand that in terms of what the conservative party has to do to start rebuilding from here what is the kind of party that we want to become and we will become once this election is over what’s your answer to that question um I think first and foremost there was um whatever you think of the politics of this there’s no doubt that the country was left with a sense that the rules were not being followed followed um and whether that went as far back as party gate or more recently with the kind of betting Scandal that we saw in the middle of the general election campaign um and so whoever comes to the four has to be somebody who hasn’t been mired in some Scandal about leaking or briefing or bullying or whatever it may happen to be I mean there’ve been so many different issues over the last four five six years um and I just hope that the party is brave enough to realize that if we are going to be a responsible opposition and we have to be a responsible opposition because when when parties of government end up with large majorities they need sensible oppositions to hold their feet to the fire that is going to be our first job after this general election then if we’re going to expect the labor party to behave in certain ways then our party has to be led by somebody who’s Beyond reproach I mean do you have someone in mind it depends who’s still on our benches I mean you can’t even predict who would be making a bid for the leadership until we know who is still going to be on our benches at the end of tonight um of course you know they people have been talked about but if you look at what the exit poll is saying people at Penny Moren may end up even losing their seats um and so yes I think I’m going to reserve judgment until I see who’s still standing and then of course there’ll be you know there’ll be lots of new people coming in and there’ll be groupings being formed and they will find their own view of who they think they should should be leading the party but it needs needs somebody who you know in in to to use terms from another space it needs a Clean Skin it needs somebody who doesn’t come with the baggage who doesn’t come with a history who really can set their stall out and say these are the things that we got wrong this is the party we want to become um and somebody who’s actually going to steady the shape you know you almost need at times like this not necessarily huge characters but quite boring steady people who will get us back into the into the safe space I’m imagining there will be a decent number of Tor MPS who make the argument that what the Tor party needs to do is open its arms to Nigel farage welcome him and potentially his MPS in merge the two what do you say to that Prospect I mean reform has been interesting um it’s been at two extremes for me um if you think about some of the things that they’re saying about the economy and about the size of the state about the way in which they want tax um to be structured going forward it’s interesting I mean certainly there were moments when I’ve been listening to reforms speeches with my eyes closed not thinking about the fact that it’s a reform speech and I have been able to go through it and say well I agree with that and I agree with that and I understand that and that sounds interesting but then when you see the underbelly of some of the things that we’ve seen during the reform campaign including their what some of their campaigners have said what some of their candidates have the Prime Minister deeply disturbing of course then it’s deeply disturbing so if reform are going to become our version of the right and the far right being on the March across Europe as we’ve seen in France and we’ve seen in Germany and we’ve seen in Italy if reform are going to become that then I’m deeply worried and I’m deeply worried as a conservative I’m deeply worried as an ethnic minority I’m deeply worried because you know as somebody who’s from the Muslim faith unfortunately many of these see that particular Community as being the at the receiving end of of what they see is is wrong with Europe um but if reform are going to become are going to get rid of this underbelly and say what farage is saying which is that he doesn’t kind of believe in this nasty undertone of racism that has existed within the party but actually they are a seriously center right party who is focused on making sure we protect our public services but make sure we have a small state we have a low tax economy we have we bring down business rates we bring down corporation tax we get businesses working again what kind of a reform are we going to see and I think much of that will depend on the MPS the particular MPS because I think reform is a broad Church the particular MPS that get elected and how many get elected final question how would you characterize this Tory campaign um confused uh probably is the nicest thing I could say about it uh re really terrible moments um which I think you know even the Prime Minister rishat would accept from the moment that it was launched um you know I am you’ve been speaking to um George you know I kind of go back to the time when we were when when we were in government I think heads would have rolled for some of the things you know a launch with the Titanic in the background walking away from the D-Day commemorations I mean there were some major moments where it wasn’t just the Prime Minister who wasn’t thinking there were people around him who clearly were not doing the serious thinking of how these campaigns should be run thank you very much indeed for coming to speak to us we really appreciate it thank you very much so listen we’ve uh talking there about to leadership uh we’ve been talking mostly As I think is right in the course of this evening about the idea that we’ve had this drastic change this massive change really we’re going to have a labor government unless the exit poll is completely wrong and some of the early results are completely wrong a labor government with a massive majority and we’ve been talking about the shape of that we haven’t talked that much about what is a catastrophic night it looks like for the Tory party Anushka can we talk a little bit more about that and particular about those the reason everyone’s got to stay awake just just I’m going to show you that host of Portillo moment if you get the reference from 97 so so I’m going to just show you the big battle board with a caveat before we do it so that’s all the predictions for the individual seats on the Battle Board and remember the exit poll predicts individual seats and then comes up with a total number but it’s all based on probabilities and for each seat we get told how high the probability is and when I talk about individuals who may or may not go I’m going to be very very careful but what we have made up for you is a board of key players in the conservative party so this has some leadership hopefuls but it also has some other people who you might think are interesting let’s give it a go see if you’re interested in them obviously even though it’s nearly 1 in the morning I have to remember who is in each of these seats but to give you an example of some of the people here so look the exit poll is predicting that KY badok is going to hold Essex Northwest and that swella bravman is going to hold fair and pretty good for the right of the party that Rossendale in between that is Jake Barry once chair of the party big figure in the north we’re going to find out about 4:00 a.m. what’s going to happen to him godling obviously Jeremy Hunt that’s coming at around 3:30 a.m. and I can tell you that the exit pole puts a high probability on the chancellor losing his seat that’s not certain we’ve got to stay up and watch but a high probability another one that has a high probability around the same time 3:30 and this will be a huge Scout because another person who might fancy the leadership is well in Hatfield Grant shs the exit Pole suggesting that that is a higher prediction than some of the others there were a couple of other interesting big beasts on there so there’s Penny Moran in Portsmouth North I’ve been talking tonight to some of the members in her team they are very very nervous and I can tell you that that is predicting that she will lose but it is too close to call so that one is on a knife edge and lots of people feel that if Penny Moran makes it through the night then absolutely she would have um a good chance in a future leadership um campaign one more more here that’s too close to call 4:30 in the morning where are you Somerset noreast Somerset Northeast oh yeah Jacob rmog that is also too close to call but obviously tipping away from Jacob reog which would obviously be a huge result if it comes in the middle of the night other people here who are looking like they are safe um like Chichester that’s Jillian Keegan more on the left of the party and also more on the liberal wing of the Party In the End Tom Bridge Tom tugen har who C would fancy himself I think in a leadership contest and down here bottom left people have thought that he might be worried but James cleverly in brain tree oh and Liz truss also I think is up there as well norfol Southwest I mean she has a massive majority a massive majority I tell you at the beginning of the night we were looking through and the other norfol seat looked like it was going to be lost and for a moment we were like is that LZ trust but at the moment it is predicting that she will remain in place maybe she’ll have another pop at the leadership [Laughter] that’s a thought to uh to uh to bring us all to early silence um K St will definitely um second her nomination yeah George what do you think about uh you have a high opinion of Liz truss I seem to remember um George always starts every sentence by St I actually really quite like before he then tells us what he think he launches into it I mean look her the go one if there were two things wer there that really did for the Tory fortunes the first was party Gates which you know the Tores never recovered from in terms of one rule for us and one rule for everyone else and that was Boris Johnson’s nail in the coffin and then the quazi Quang Liz trust mini budget and you know was destroyed the tor’s economic reputation and what sunak has not done and didn’t do and didn’t do in the first weeks he became the Prime Minister was to distance himself in the same way that Kier starma who served in Jeremy Corbin’s Shadow cabinet essentially expelled Jeremy Corbin he was ruthless just I’m just going to start you there for a moment cuz going to go to Newcastle I have your attention please I am ready to declare the result for Newcastle upon time Central and West I Pam Smith returning officer hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidates for the Newcastle upon time Central and Westward is as follows Ali a liberal Democrat 1,946 Francis lazok the conservative party 4,228 Ashton Hector monaster reform UK 7,815 Chi onw labor party 18,8 75 John Pearson green party candidates 3,228 khabib Ramen independent 1,636 Ivon an Ridley independent 3,600 27 and that CH Ona has been duly elected to serve as a counselor as a member of parliament for the Newcastle upon Central and West constituency thank you the reform candidate is UN well and is okay there we are Colin I’m just going to ask you to come in as I bring up the change in the share of the vote to have a look at what has happened there and it feels like it’s uh coming the labor share is actually down there of course and reform is up and the conservatives are down as well but I would point out there’s an dependent who clearly took a bit of a local vote there and the turnout is down by fully nine points in Newcastle Central and West the constituency has had quite a lot of boundary changes though I don’t think that will has a particular impact but Chan R has still got a pretty solid majority but what it must look like for labor there they are look down 13% is it and reform are up by 10 or so that’s um oh that doesn’t look very good for them you know they they’ almost they’re down almost as badly as the conservatives aren’t they Ed any thoughts on this I mean I I big fall in the vote isn’t it I mean you know 10,000 votes fewer um compared to the uh the last election um it makes me feel as you say Colin that something else is going on here this is so out of line with what we’ve seen in in the sundland I’ve just noticed the name of the independent candidate Ivon Ridley doesn’t that bring ring a bell for um Middle East politics or Shep for a while I think no not sure was she was she an MP and sorry I didn’t mean to get get all our thinking hats on at this in the evening but thinking hard about what’s happened here there’s two different Independents okay let’s just pull back a a little bit and and and Ponder for a moment I must say that I find it a little bit counterintuitive that we have repeatedly in the course of this election campaign stressed how hacked off people appear to be with the government and yet turnout seems to be down that is s surprising me still even though I think you can you’re looking at me like a dim pupil at this point in the fair enough um you can be hacked off right but if you don’t see another party as offering you something absolutely you know something that excites you then why not stay at home and in a seat like Newcastle upon timee Central and West it’s it’s obvious to win right so these aren’t necessarily people who are sitting there disinterested in the result they could be perfectly interested in the result but have worked out that they didn’t need to vote but am I right to say that the story of this election as it’s emerging is not the story of this election night that we thought it was going to be at least I didn’t think it was going to be I thought people were H hacked off with the Tory government and probably would turn out ins sufficient numbers to vote for labor but it seems in a lot of areas that you know reform have done so much better than we thought and people in the sense that they were hacked off quite a lot of them am I in right territory I think what we need to do is look at some very marginal seats where tactical voting comes into play and I should imagine that turnout will be increased in those races that are really tight where people felt that their vote could really make a difference we’ve only had six declarations one of them switch parties only five of those are safe labor seats so I think where we’re going to see the races tighter I’d expect turn out to be AIT although in Swindon which definitely would have been fiercely fought on the ground turn out is also down yeah but it’s only it’s one seat but if you think of the message from from from the conservatives in the last six or seven days warning of the super majority don’t give labor a super majority they weren’t simply saying um don’t go and vote reform they were also saying don’t stay at home and you know to me I asked this of Jane earlier and I know we can’t know when you look at this the conservatives went from 12,000 to 4,000 the reforms gone from 3 to 7,000 um there’s a whole bunch of people who voted conservative in 2019 who just decided you know maybe they can’t stomach voting for anybody else yeah they’re not going to V for because there is something relevant to all this worth pointing out it’s simply that it is early in the Li and we’ve seen this great reform surge for reasons I don’t fully understand but on the other hand I have to say I do respect their intelligence and you know because this is a pretty good result for labor labor think that reform will get significantly fewer seats than the 13 that the exit pole is saying now I don’t really understand that at this particular point of the evening um we can I mean one of the things that we have to say about the exit poll is the exit pole produces probabilities and there are five or so seats where the probabilities are high and the rest of them the probabilities are much lower so if we were going to say you know we’re not going to put anyone’s nobody’s going to put their money on it being 13 can can I also say something about the independent there in you mean there’s no gambling on this CH feel counterintuitive for the election campaign in this election people only gamble when they know for sure PR have a bet on the result now um yeah uh even Ridley The Independent in Newcastle Central who got over eight close to 9% of the vote she used to be a member of the lab party she resigned over Iraq stood for the respect party which is one of George G yeah one of George galway’s old um connections and of course why reason I bring it up is because I think later in the night when we begin to get some results in from places like Birmingham and some of the Lancashire towns we may see that that’s sort of pro Muslim anti- the Gaza Factor will beginning to play just say top memory on your point about turnout yeah so far I mean obviously Chan bucked that Trend but mostly the labor vote is up a little bit U sometimes just stagnating obviously the reform vote is up the green vote is up the liberal Democrat what we’re seeing here is Tories either switching or just not voting and at the end of the day again what we need to see is the actual numbers for the individual parties I suspect the numbers for the Tories in terms of absolute numbers for Tories will be absolutely through the floor and that again I think just be one of those you know big stories of the night something Colin said when we started the whole program he said this is going to be about the smaller parties doing better and it’s very easy for us to assume you know the smaller parties means reform and there’s a big reform smaller party effect happening but also the greens and The Independents and to some extent the liberal Democrats are smaller parties here if you look at this result here two Independents and the green and the liberal Democrat take a whole chunk of votes together and they may well be people complaining about Kia stama particularly on the Gaza issue who knows but the point is that um straws in the wind things for labor to worry about in this Parliament it’s not only about the reform flank to the right it’s also about um the green and wider independent flank to the left and you know that’s part of what he’s going to have to manage it is a most peculiar kind of position to be in though isn’t it I mean like we I feel like we’re having two totally separate almost you know divided conversations we we’re having this conversation about lack of enthusiasm for labor and you this big shift to reform and blah blah blah blah blah Meanwhile we’re staring down the barrel of 170 seat majority from nowhere which by any standards is you know history making welcome to First pass the post yeah okay and that is the other this will be the least proportional general election in terms of the distribution of seats of any in British history by a margin yeah I mean if labor only get 36 37% of the vote with whatever two-thirds of all the seats in Parliament I I suspect Labor’s enthusiasm for electoral reform Di has evaporated they going to become the strongest Advocates of the first pass of the but there is also another point I was saying to Tom before the um the the the show in this more volatile world where the small parties are doing better even if you win a majority on the scale it looks like labor would that is more vulnerable in 1997 when we won a majority of 170 from the outset we thought we had two terms and you could plan on two terms you could think about the economy public spending the National Health Service over two terms um we actually didn’t raise taxes for the NHS until the beginning of the second term if you kiss and Rachel Reeves even with a majority of 170 they are definitely not thinking two terms territory they’re thinking they’re much much more Under Pressure they’ve got to deliver much more quickly than we felt we had to for all the reasons we’re talk take away the we just talk about just means that’s the cont can we just talk about that for a second though because I think almost everyone watching this program is going to think I don’t really have any idea what lab’s going to do in power like you know okay if they’re only going to get one term they got a massive majority what are they really going to do cuz I don’t feel like the election campaign gave us an awful lot of indication as to what they were going to do well they they say they’re going to meet their fiscal rules which is going to be very hard it maybe the office of budget responsibility is going to tell them that you’re missing unless you um take some action they say that they are going um to not raise taxes vat National Insurance income tax very hard to do other stuff on tax what are they going to do that’s going in public services um but actually it’s quite hard if you’re meeting your fiscal rules and you’re not raising tax and they then say going to get growth in the economy which nobody has managed to do in the last 15 years since the financial crisis George certainly didn’t manage to do it when he was Chan Checker so look I might dispute that anyway we’ll that we really don’t have time for that argument tonight we’ll save that for another show we’ll save that argument for between three and four if you want I think there’s an interesting point that someone made to me which is that you know in fact Karma presented a very conservative face you know first of all he looked very sensible and conservative his Economic Policy was basically matching Tory spending plans and tax plans right his immigration policy was tough on the small boats his European policy was I’m happy with the brexit settlement largely I’m certainly not going to rejoin the EU he actually rode back on some of the cultural issues like gender identity so he ended up in the end of the election basically agreeing with the conservative government’s position position on things like transgender issues I mean he did he presented a very sort of conservative approach in fact the manifesto I thought this was the Supreme example when it was when Rachel Reeves and K was asked what’s this Manifesto all about he said wealth creation and that’s what a conservative leader or Chancellor would have said and and it’s quite interesting and maybe that was just reducing the target you know all the ghosts of label victories snatched away by being too radical in the policy program of the past but you know in some ways you you know you’ve left a blank sheet of paper now the one thing about a big majority is great you can now start to fill it in but if you don’t have clear ideas all those different labor groups are going to start having ideas on things like welfare reform there’s going to be enormous pressure to reverse things like the two child policy which I introduced and you know so it’s interesting I think we’re going to have to see I always think on these election nights you get the result then you have a new government and everyone watching takes a new look at these people okay he’s now the Prime Minister she’s now the chancellor by the way first female transfer in history worth noting that’s going to be quite a thing but you know and if over the next three months six months it get to the end of the year and it hasn’t really taken off you know the new labor government in 97 did make a big early impression just talk very briefly on this look what we all now think or said what I think maybe you don’t is they got a bit they got a big majority ity okay we know that there’s a 20 to 40 billion pound hole in the public finances we’re going to have an 8 to 10we process in which the OB does its work and reveals this great surprise to the nation which everybody frankly knows at that point Rachel Rees will stand up blame richy sunak uh say it’s all his fault and that and at that in my view at that point we will see we because it’s their only time it’s the only time when they can blame their predecessors if they put taxes up worried about breing Promises to the red wall um on the cost of living tax sheet of paper we’re going to stop that there I know you should ask I know I’ve got something I’ve got an idea I know someone I can ask about what they uh what the new labor government’s going to be like uh there’s all of us speculating where someone has to bring order to this chaos yes yes yes yes would you like to to go and sit it the the chair You’ be a much better it than me now listen um Shadow Health secretary possibly not Shadow for much longer if our exit pole is correct I guess the first thing I should do is ask your reaction uh you must be trying pretty hard to contain your joy at this particular point I don’t know about trying hard to contain the joy if if I’m honest that it hasn’t sunk in and um you know think back to 2019 we were told that in order to get a majority of one we would need a Blair style swing and 1997 level swing and then we’re presented with an exit poll that actually shows a 1997 style uh majority now there is some genuinely this is an expectation management there is some important caveats to put on on the numbers which is lots of those projections will be tight races uh we definitely put cautionary notes on the number of Reform seats who knows whether the S&P will go down to the numbers predicted uh so overall um you know we’re sitting here looking at a country that has chosen change and has chosen change with labor and now I hope tomorrow it will fall to us to answer that call for change by rebuilding our economy rebuilding our public services and rebuilding trust in politics as we go about it before we start to talk about policy a bit you’ve shadowed this brief for a considerable period of time I don’t think anyone doubts that being Health secretary in the current environment is a very heavy responsibility so can I just ask you what your personal kind of reaction as you are apparently on the cusp of doing this walking into the department being responsible being answerable for every issue the NHS has are you excited daunted slight nerves in your stomach as you Ponder right got to put it all into action now I think the scale of the challenge is daunting it’s objectively the worst crisis uh in the nhs’s history uh We’ve also got I think the generational challenge of social care which we have to answer if we’re serious about uh meeting people’s needs in the 21st century whether they’re older people in our aging Society whether they’re disabled people we need to meet those challenges and which is something that has frankly um eluded every government of every political stripe so far um we’re ready though and I’ve been working a lot with former labor Health secretaries uh talking to Alan Milburn about this recently and I say this without any disrespect to the 1997 generation whatsoever um when Allan was appointed as health minister by Tony Blair he asked Blair what what he should do and Tony Blair said come up with a health policy in 1997 our Kino NHS pledge was to cut waiting list by 100,000 by sacking a few NHS managers which come to think of it was richy sunak policy at this election um we have got a much I think wider scope of commitments that we can deliver promises we’ve made promises we can keep and the country can afford and a reform agenda that we will hit the ground running with because the one thing I’ve had on my side which conservative Health secretaries haven’t had in recent years is a string of successful people from my own party that I can call on who’ve got experience of delivering the shortest waiting times and the highest patient satisfaction in the history of the NHS we did it before and despite the depth of the crisis I believe the labor party can do it again item one solving the junior doctor’s issue how are you going to do that uh well I think we’ve seen some encouraging breakthroughs in other parts of the United Kingdom most recently in labor Le Wales uh we’ve been honest ahead of the election with the BMA that 35% is not a demand the country can afford uh the BMA to be fair to them have shown a willingness to negotiate on pay and then there also a wider range of issues in terms of placements rotations mean the most egregious case I’ve seen was a junior doctor whose partner had cancer they had two kids and the NHS showed no flexibility whatsoever about where family was placed in terms of the junior doctor’s work I mean that’s an extreme example but it speaks to a wider um culture in the NHS which treats Junior doctors poorly and I’m genuinely angry about that and I want to work with them to solve it and whether it’s Junior doctors nurses Consultants Porters anyone who uses the NHS anyone who works in the NHS can see how badly it has been managed and the depths of the crisis and it’s up to us to inspire a generational effort so that those people can look back on their careers when they retire and say hand on heart they were the generation that took the NHS from the worst Cris in history to getting it back on its feet and making sure it’s fit for the future well sting I think I can only say good luck and thank you very much indeed for coming and talk to us this evening right let’s go and get a summary of what’s happening in the rest of the country with Nina thank you Tom welcome back to The Newsroom let’s take a look at the main headlines of the night so far the shadow foreign secretary Labour David Lamy has told ITV News the country has had enough of the rasmas that gets you nowhere and sakir starma is ready to lead he will be focused on the job at hand um and he will be sticking to the plan um he set out a course he will be sticking to it and absolutely clear that he has to deliver for working people so the C op ations for labor have started with a handful of results and the broadcasters exit poll predicting the party winning 410 seats on course for 170 seat majority if the exit pole predictions are correct it would mean the worst result in the conservative party’s history the former cabinet minister baroness VY says the story of the night is reform there’s something definitely going on here with the Tory vote collapse and the reform vote increasing and I think it’s really important for us to understand that understand that one in terms of what’s Happening across the country but understand that in terms of what the conservative party has to do to start rebuilding from here well it is looking like a significant night for reform UK the party that wasn’t even on the ballots in the 2019 election it is predicted to win 13 seats and so far tonight has come second to labor in five constituencies so what to make of the reform impact on this election and the next government Paul what can you tell us well Nina this is one of the Breakthrough stories of the night isn’t it and the exit poll says the party will take 13 seats that’s more than most we predicting we do have to be a bit cautious with the exit pole when it comes to smaller parties let’s see how the night progresses but you know certainly ukip only had one p at one MP at the height of its popularity the brexit party never won any now the latest Incarnation is the reform UK party so let’s look at how it’s doing in some of these early results and you can see it punching through here in the the red wall effectively in the Northeast reform UK got 29% almost 30% of the vote uh here in hoton and sundland South and if you look next door in Sunland Central well the result there was very similar to reform get 27% of the vote they are looking in this part of the country like they are the official opposition to labor that is quite an achievement for them this evening and all this indicates that it’ll very likely be eighth Time Lucky we presume for party leader Nigel faraj in clacton of course he’s tried seven times before to be an MP and tonight he has tweeted the revolt against the establishment in his words is underway along with this short video it’s midnight there were two results in from the northeast of England that put reform on 30% of the vote that is way more than any possible prediction of or projection it’s almost unbelievable what does it mean it means we’re going to win seats many many seats I think well what about some of the other more recognizable reform figures aside from Nigel farage it looks from the exit pole Like Richard Ty is sort of 50/50 of course he was the leader before Nigel farage stepped in during the course of the election he may well take Boston scages from the conservatives as for Lee Anderson who was the only reform UK MP in the last Parliament well it looks like his Ash his Ashfield seat might actually go to labor so a mixb of results here but let’s go to our political correspondent Harry hton who’s been following the reform campaign throughout this election and Harry labor saying to me that the exit pole May overestimate the number of seats that reform UK is going to win but what a reform saying to you well interestingly uh reform sources I’ve been speaking to this evening are also a little bit skeptical about that exit poll they’re not sure they will win as many as 13 seats we’re just outside the reform oh to sorry head to his CAC and constituency counts uh in the next uh few minutes uh what reform are confident about millions of votes in this election they think they will finish in second place uh in dozens and dozens of seats and that will do two things for them one it will give them they believe the platform to become the main opposition party at the okay apologies for the breakup there on Harry there obviously this is a a live program he’s standing outside that county in clacton there trying his best to bring us the latest analysis we’ll come back to him later in the evening if we can but Nina a fascinating picture unfolding here but quite an unpredictable one when it comes to reform yeah absolutely Paul uh we’ve still got lots more to come at around uh 2:00 we’re expecting the count for the labor leader s starma at home and some panras and at around 2:30 we’ll hear from Rochdale where George Galloway is defending the seat he won in February for the workers party so a busy few hours ahead of us here in The Newsroom Tom Nina thank you very much it’s about 51 if you’re still up I think the first thing I’ve got to say is thank you for staying up with us uh we appreciate having your company in the course of this evening um we’re enjoying ourselves I think it’s fair to say probably rather a lot more than the conserv party is um I’m told that Rachel Reeves is back not a big surprise but we’ve got former Chancellor former Shadow Chancellor here perhaps I can ask you would you want to be in Rachel Reeves’s shoes going into the treasury tomorrow course yeah it’s the best job in Britain it’s the best that’s right out there with the stupidest questions I’ve ever asked in the of my life the answer is oh yes I think you know he’s been ch is that CL yeah the um I think you know it’s unbelievably hard being Shadow Chancellor I found it in many ways harder politically than being Chancellor so and so few Shadow chancellors make because you’re carrying the whole weight of your party’s economic message with a tiny team you don’t have the treasury behind you you have a few people all people can judge you on is your words and I was the sixth or seventh Shadow Chancellor and gold Brown had basically got rid of all the previous ones uh so it’s very hard and you know credit to Rachel Reeves she held herself together for through this campaign she’s emerged as very clearly the number two figure in labor but with you know people actually in one sentence say K dmer and Rachel Reeves G and Rachel Rees who’ve been saying it on this program they actually put up a big poster of her as well and you know she has carried Labor’s economic credibility and they go into this election ahead on the economy which used to be the classic old way of measuring whether you were going to win an election or not and uh and she’s also as I just mentioned going to be Britain’s first female chance six Checker and of all you know that’s one of the great officers of state where we’ve not had a woman do the job before and you know and I think she’s she’s absolutely done what the shadow John needs to do of course as of tomorrow she’s the chance to EXT Checker she’s got to somehow make these sums add up the pressures on public spending the pressures on tax you’ve got this dual pressure you’ve got public spending as a share of national income at a very high level and you got taxes as a share of national income almost at a postwar high and and what are you supposed to do you know if you put the taxes up it’s all right to say you’re going to tax billionaires a bit more but there are just aren’t enough billion you know those are if you want to put taxes up to raise money it’s got to be taxes that most people pay and you know people are not going to want that and uh if she can’t find extra money then where’s streeting sitting there going like I’m going to solve the nhs’s problems it’s not going to do it with warm words and a bit of Goodwill we we’ve talked about how a lot of people watching this program won’t feel they know the people are walking into government very well Nicola who this been been unfair question in some ways but who impresses you and who I mean who sticks out to you when you you know people you you would be potentially up against to some degree who do you who would you be worried about being up against who do you think is most capable who’s who’s who are going to be the stars of this new Administration before I do try to answer that I mean I I do think for a lot of people the labor ministers that will be appointed tomorrow will be largely blank sheets of paper you know people they just don’t know now that’s both a challenge but it’s also a massive opportunity to make your mark and you know suddenly be the rising star of of a new government so I wouldn’t worry too much about that if I was Labor or one of the the new ministers in labor um you know I think there are Rachel Reeves I don’t necessarily entirely agree with how Kia starm and Rachel Reeds have approached the election but I think she has absolutely mered is a really substantial serious figure and George is right it is a moment in history that she’s going to become the first female chancelor I don’t think that should be glossed over West streeting I think is one of the best communicators that labor has he’s taken on a you know a really really tough I’ve been Health secretary in Scotland in relatively benign times compared to now it’s a tough job arguably maybe after Chancellor one of the toughest jobs in any government um I’m a fan of David Lamy I think he is somebody that is often has often been underestimated and again I think you know if he does become foreign secretary I think that’s hugely significant so but the fact that these are the ones I mentioning suggests that there are so many others that just haven’t yet penetrated the public Consciousness at all I can of make a cultural Point uh the state The Bloomin obvious K sta like quite a few people around this table are it’s pale male and stale but actually if you look at the top what you you mentioned you know racial Reeves chse check has been in existence uh what 8 years first first woman but we got we got this uh okay you can speak you can speak for yourself on this issue anyway uh I mean somebody let go down this road should we you know um IET Cooper somebody who you know quite well Home Secretary great office of State Angela Raina arguably the second most powerful person in the government as Deputy Prime Minister it will I think feel quite different from recent British governments yes Labor’s never had a female leader well female prime minister anyway that was temporarily a female leader but the big jobs are occupied by women I think that matters Ed who should we look out for who would you pick out who maybe isn’t in the front rank well I think um in this election campaign um Pat McFadden and Jonathan Ashworth have run the campaign uh Ellie Reeves as well alongside them they’ve been on the media the whole time and it’s interesting isn’t it you should probably point out that Ellie Reeves is sister of Rachel Reeves she is right I mean not every will know that but she’s been been an MP um for I think as long maybe even longer than Rachel maybe this the same her time but she’s mean she’s um really good I mean if you think on the Tory side the campaign was run by Al was run by um Oliver dowon the chair was Richard Holden neither of them seemed to come on the media at all throughout the the campaign actually Richard hold In fairness didn’t it was a disaster right well he never he certainly never came gets the prize for he does gets the prize for most appearances Loy defending the line ever right this going to save his seat let’s go to Anushka thank you I just wanted to highlight how big a night this is for labor despite all the other things we’re talking about I’m not even going to show you the Tony Blair era seats because they’ve all gone red again but look at these These are seats that have basically always been conservative and that are looking likely to change tonight you’re talking about chancellors former chancellors look at that Rush Cliff according to this is likely to change tonight um which also do I want to show you here Hexum here at the bottom this was the only to um the only seat to remain Tory in the Blair years I think by a majority of 222 in 1997 chipping Barnet there that was Tes vilia SE if it goes and I just want to mention at the end Worthing West because I met a bloke on a train I kid you not I met a bloke on a train a few weeks ago and he said to me I’m in the conservative Association at Worthing West and if I was you i’ put a bet on us losing luckily I didn’t put a bet on particularly given the story that unfolded but it looks like that bloke on the train might be right if the exit pole is proved that way tonight and just one more to pick out mville because I spoke to quite a lot of Labor MPS in other seats around Manchester who were in safe seats and they were all sent into mfield and it was a really good example of the absolute pummeling they did in this election targeting particular seats they ‘ll be very pleased if that happens tonight so M was neing SE I mentioned it earlier all my old team in Tatton who are also worried about the taten seat saying mfield has definitely gone labor and nich can I ask you do you think Steven Flynn is lost I don’t know yet but I’m hearing that it’s not looking uh entirely secure so there is a possibility there but I’m just trying to find out more from the ground cuz he was really impressive in the House of Commons I thought he’s hugely impressive and you know look if Steven Flynn loses his seat tonight it’ll be a massive blow to the S&P I’m not going to try and sugar coat it but it won’t be the end of Steven Flynn and in some ways it will ease his passage into the Scottish Parliament many people in my party think that Steven is a future leader of the SNP and I think you know that’s a view with some Credence is you’re about to when you look at that board do you think absolute disaster for the Tories or do you think that is demographic change um that’s leading people to labor and also the age the age turnovers gone so much higher now between when people actually turn conservative I mean isn’t that you say it’s not existential but isn’t that potentially existential well no I mean you know the conservative party that I helped to bring out of opposition got young people voting for it uh you know it same number this is a good fact 2010 the same number of 18 to 25 year olds voted conservative as voted labor so giving up on young people giving up on uh you know people who’ve got college degrees all that that’s been a hopeless strategy for the conservatives but that has played out over eight years um you know I think the pro you know because we all started the night and said there was a possibility of a conservative Wipeout and some of those polls during the general election said there’ only be 50 Tory seats left or 60 you know as I said at the beginning and I think it’s true people are still saying oh it’s not as bad as it could have been but you’ve got Chelsea going against labor you know Ian that is about as true blue as you know you could have imagined see it’s like mfield you know it I mean it’s a Hitchin you know I’m just hearing from Hitchin uh from the conservatives there they think they’ve lost that’s still old Peter Le B aalami who’s a treasury Minister um you know these are seats you never ever would have thought even in the high days of Tony Blair even in the big wins of Tony Blair would go okay on that young person point I think just behind me we’ve got our look at this this is the group of seats which have a large number of young people you can see exactly what direction they look like they’re going into and the worry for me is that the kind of Tory solution tonight is going to be we just got to get the reform vote back and maybe even strike a deal with Nigel farage there’ll be definitely Tory leadership contenders who’ll be saying that um whereas you’ve actually got to start again and say you know how are we going to get young people back how are we going to get people with college degrees back how we going to get people in cities back how are we going to get people with mortgages back I mean you know we got to start winning that rather than just thinking a kind of deal in a pub with fres is there any chance of the next Tory leader being somebody who says reach into the center ground well there is possibly really um but I agree that there you know is going to be an uphill struggle because the first thing to Instinct of the conservative body will be to go you didn’t like what we’re offering we’ll double it you know that’s always parties in the immediate aftermath of a defeat always make the wrong reach the wrong conclusions and make the wrong judgments and and you know I hope my party doesn’t do too much of that if the exit poll is right about us why I mean that that that’s kind of intuitive isn’t it like surely when you’ve just lost you should be desperately thinking God but youat into yourself a little bit and you you listen to the wrong people and and there’s a tendency in politics to always fight the last campaign in a way instead of members free from the burden of governing and the members if if the members don’t reflect the voters and that is absolutely true in the conservative party as it was for the labor party when Jeremy Corbin was elected if the members become disc detached from um the equilibrium of your vote then things get worse we have been talking about Rachel Reeves potentially being the first female Chancellor in the history of our country and I’m very pleased to say that she joins us now um Rachel congratulations on what clearly has been a very good night for your party uh and we assume you will soon be walking into the treasury so before we talk about any of that can I just ask you for your personal reaction on what looks like an epic labor win if the exit poll is even half right that’s David NOA you sorry I I struggled to hear that uh but look if the results unfold in the way that the exit polls suggest this will clearly be an historic victory for labor and it’s really Testament to the leadership of of Kia starma who has turned around the labor party and put it back in the service of working people so that we are now within touching distance of of forming the next government assuming you walk into the treasury within the next day or two you are pretty soon going to have to have some very difficult conversations with the British people aren’t you and we all know what those are are you ready to be straight very early with the British people because some people argue you weren’t really during the election campaign I’m under no Illusions about the scale of the challenge that I will inherit if I become Chancellor of the ex cheer uh in the next few hours the severity of the inheritance left by the conservatives but you ask am I ready I am ready for that challenge Kia is ready we have put together plans to bring stability back to our economy to bring business investment back to Britain and if we can do those things I do believe that we can drive the wealth creation the prosperity in all parts of our country that we desperately need and that’s what I’m determined to do if I have that opportunity I don’t think anyone around this table and I doubt many people watching have any uh doubts that you’re very competent and serious person I think where people do have doubts as to exact as to exactly how straight you’ve been with people about the choices that lie ahead in the next six months to a year and I won’t rehearse all the many times that you and almost every other politician was asked about the hole in the public finances and all the rest of it but isn’t the basic truth that you are going to have to have some very uncomfortable conversations and you’re going to have to do more radical things more quickly than you gave the impression of during the election campaign well we sort in this uh election campaign a mandate for the policies that are needed to grow our economy they’re not going to be easy reforming the planning system for example will mean tough decisions it’ll mean difficult conversations but unless we grow the economy we’re going to continue in this Doom Loop of higher taxes and worse public services and I don’t want to continue going down that path and that’s why economic growth is so essential it’s what we’ fought this election campaign on and it is how I will seek to lead the treasury if I have that opportunity to grow our economy to bring wealth and prosperity back to Britain I know that we have huge potential as a country as an economy but that potential has not been properly tapped these last few years the 14 years of chaos Division and decline it has cost our country dearly it’s cost our economy dearly and I’m determined to turn that around working in partnership with business to unlock the investment that is needed to boost our prod productivity and our growth performance that’s what we saw a mandate to do and that is what I will Begin work on if I become Chancellor of the ex cheer tomorrow but isn’t there a danger that you have massively boxed yourself in by promising What You Won’t Do when you clearly are almost certainly going to have to raise taxes prop possibly in a number of places in order to make everything add up what other possible conclusion can be drawn well we’ve pledged not to increase income tax National Insurance or vat for the ation of the next Parliament but we have set out uh the closures of tax Loop Pooles that we will make uh to ensure that there is an immediate injection of cash into our public services so uh changing the rules around non-doms so that non-doms pay their fair share of tax in Britain changing the taxation around carried interest for uh private Equity companies uh applying business rates and VAT on on private schools those are the tax changes the loopholes that we will close uh to ensure that we can provide that immediate injection of cash into our schools and into our hospitals but in the end you have to grow the economy and without economic growth we’re going to continue having these conversations about tax increases and spending cuts unless we grow the economy that is the only choices but if you can grow the economy and don’t just take my word for it listen to the 120 or more businesses that signed a letter during the election campaign endorsing our growth policies the three three Nobel Prize wining winning economists who backed our plans for growth we can do this other countries have managed to grow the economy and therefore have the money to improve living standards uh and invest in public services I’m determined to do that here in Britain we have huge potential as an economy I want to unlock that potential and that’s what our plans that’s what we’ve fought this election campaign on that’s what we’re going to do final question when you became Shadow Chancellor I don’t imagine that you thought you were going to be walking into the treasury with a majority that could be if the exit poll is Right 170 or thereabouts on any anal Anis that is a massive majority huge change in British politics we’ve been discussing that for the last 3 hours in reality does that mean that a labor government governing with that kind of majority will be more radical than it would have been otherwise well we’ve got a mandate based on our Manifesto and it’s our Manifesto that we will now uh uh get started on delivering that is what we’ve got a mandate for uh not other policies but the ones that were in our Manifesto and you asked three and a bit years ago when I was appointed as Shadow Chancellor did I think I would be here today I’ve been an MP now for 14 years uh I’ve kept winning in leads West but losing nationally K Tama has turned around the labor party put it back in the service of working people and so that we are now in Touching distance of forming the government that I’ve wanted to see for so long but has seemed Out Of Reach for so long and because of the work of Kia and others and I’m proud to have played my part in that uh we are now standing within that opportunity of turning around our country for the better and I can’t wait to get started at that Rachel Reeves uh congratulations on your Victory and thank you very much indeed uh in your seat I mean and potentially in the country but for now thank you very much uh for joining us Robert I’d like to come to you you’ve known K St a while what do you make of what kind of prime minister he’s going to be uh well as determined as he’s been in opposition one of the things George osor about this earlier that I was struck by is how the Tory party BR Johnson in particular consistently underestimated him they they ran this uh sort of tagline against him of Sir softy he’s probably the most ruthless politician uh I’ve ever come across and I mean you know we haven’t yet got the result uh from Islington North but you know if you’d asked me when he took over the leadership of the Labour party that Jeremy Corbin would be running uh as an independent not in the labor party uh I would have been quite surprised by that and that was an absolutely deliberate decision by Kama to detoxify his party he’s also let’s be absolutely clear an incredibly lucky politician as well I mean you know he’s inherited you know sort of circumstances particularly in terms of the chaos in the Tory government over the last few years and indeed it’s helping him the surgeon reform uh which you know has made this project uh of making labor electable infinitely more effective than again any of us might have predicted at the moment that starma took over um you know in terms of what he will do in government unfortunately as everybody’s pointed out the manifesto does not have an enormous amount of detail there are really quite important long-term Ambitions but not a lot of detail about how we would achieve you know the highest growth rate of major economies how he will reform the T the planning system to get there um how he will devolve power uh to the regions much more than you know which is again is part of what they are uh proposing so there’s lots of big Ambitions not a lot of detail what I would say is that if you’ve seen his track record turning around the labor party as an institution you would be foolish to say that he will not be effective as well I’m just going to point out here that you’re watching on your screen pictures as you probably have worked out by now of um Ed Davy arriving at his count in Kingston obviously he’s going to win we assume he’s going to win it’s a disaster we’re also expecting uh first time we’ve seen him in in a suit and tie right no he was and tie there there will be a bucket of water poured over him at any moment we’re also about to go to Harriet uh which you know has been a lidm seat in the past has it not very interesting result very interesting result okay we’ll be ready to go to Harriet in just a moment for now we’re looking at Ed Davy in a suit as as we’ve said that’s a rare thing in the campaign Jane you want to jump in on the lib Dems performance tonight which we haven’t devoted enough time to I think talking about really because it’s been pretty substantial it’s one of the difficulties on Election nights is that we put so much emphasis on labor seats and we’re putting so much emphasis on reform taking votes away from the conservatives and helping the labor party but that’s going to change as the night goes on and we’re going to be looking at areas of the country in the Southeast and the southwest and we’re going to then start looking at the effectiveness of the liberal Democrats uh vote and seat gains and I think you know one of the fascinating aspects of this election is going to be how these smaller parties have taken what could be very very similar levels of vote share and translated that in the in the in the instance of the liberal Democrats to potentially as the exit poll is predicting a very healthy seat share so you know it’s been a fascinating campaign seeing the liberal Democrat um you know seeing seeing not so much substance but nevertheless the targeting of those campaign um events if we can call them that in those areas where tactical voting can really help the Liv Dem so it will switch on to talking about this a lot more as we get more those constituencies in Harriet that will be one of the constituencies that will help us understand how the LI Dems might be doing Ed nickol George can I ask you because as we’re watching Dave now his campaign genius or crazy nonsense kind of it’s about results yeah I mean first of all a great result for the liberal Democrats they they bounced right back to where they were under Charlie Kennedy and Nick C uh and second I thought the fact we all noticed what he was doing in a pretty crowded field you know you had the K dor and Nel farage and Richie sunak the stunts were on you know your show every night and on the front pages of newspapers what they never had was a sort of signature policy like uh you know abolish student Fe or probably just as welled you know they so it’s old they did wasn’t really anything you could remember as a policy but I slightly disagree I think the social care stuff that he did really did cut through actually that about his he did was very yeah but he also announced a policy which was to provide he did a very emotional party election and I thought that did cut through and I thought his personal story which was very moving it was very unusual party political broadcast where he talked about looking after his disabl on the stunts I’ve got different view because the liberal Democrats do these kind of stunts at every single election and it’s because they’re doing well tonight that we’re all saying oh what’s the stunts really effective heed a lot more than anybody’s ever done well I I would point to some liberal leaders up in Scotland who actually even more Outland that’s where we got the idea from Nick C do bunge junkie or p a standard I suspect you they would have performed like this tonight whether or not Ed D had performed these stunts now okay he brought some attention to his campaign but I don’t think we should overestimate okay can I just start you all there because we’re going to harag okay so this is the Declaration of the result um I Richard flinton been the acting returning officer for the election of a member of parliament for the Harriet and nbor constituency held yesterday Thursday 4th of July 2024 do hereby give notice that the number of valid ballot papers for each candidate uh is as follows Thomas go Gordon commonly known as Tom Gordon liberal Democrat 23,9 [Music] 76 Steven Paul hlum commonly known as Paul Haslam independent [Applause] 620 Andrew Hansen Jones conservative party cand at 15738 Steven Douglas meta [Applause] 136 Shan Ursula Rigby commonly known as Shan Oaks Green Party candidate 1,76 2 Jonathan Mark swales reform UK 5,679 Conrad James whitcroft White commonly known as Conrad James Witt labor party 4,153 [Applause] I hereby declare that Thomas Gordon is duly elected okay a big victory for the Liv Dems there in Hara we rather suspected that would happen but it has indeed happened uh Colin as I just jog through changing the share of the vote could you just talk me through what you make of this in it’s the the first libdem gain of the night that we’ve seen the first seat that they’ve really been in contention for it’s 20 one on their target list so it’s halfway towards the kind of uh totals that the exit poll is expecting them to get their vote is up by about 10 percentage points from last time um so is the reform vote and of course reform didn’t contest here last time because it’s been a conservative held seat for some time yet the conservative vot is down by the 20 percentage points that we have been experiencing all night long and as we’ve commented earlier this was a seat that the liberal Democrats held in the days when they had 5050 60 seats in the House of Commons and it looks if that may be the case again it’s one of a classic libdem area quite affluent strong in local government not the kind of place that um it was you know voted to remain first constituency I think we’ve had tonight where that applies it’s classic lib demem territory when the conservatives are unpopular so it’s only a very narrow remain lead in this area but I think you know you sort of have to wonder when Nigel fraj decided to enter this particular race whether he thought he’ be helping the liberal Democrats um and that is exactly what’s happened here I mean it’s reform standing the brexit party didn’t stand the reform share is sufficient to take away votes from the conservative party and in this instance the liberal Democrats take the seat okay let’s go and talk to Sarah ol who’s the liberal candidate uh for Richmond Park and she is not in Richmond Park as you can see she’s in our Westminster studio um and Sarah you are wearing a very big smile I see after that Harrogate result not surprisingly I certainly am okay it looks like you’re going to have had a very good night we’ll wait and see but the exit poll says um why do you think exactly um I think it’s because Ed uh in particular and the liberal Democrats as a whole we’ve run a really positive campaign we’ve really focused on the issues uh that matter to voters we’ve put the NHS and social care front and center of our Manifesto uh and we’ve brought forward some ambitious plans uh for how we can tackle uh the issues that people are experiencing getting GP appointments getting Cancer Care uh and obviously social care our policy to have free Personal Care um and these things that have really resonated uh with voters um I heard you talking earlier about Ed and some of the things he’s been up to on the campaign Trail but it’s very much highlighting some of these issues uh things like uh a sewage in our rivers and our beaches is something that voters are really really concerned about um but also I think people have seen that that personal sight to Ed his own experience as a carer for his mother for his son um and they’ve really really connected with that so I think you know but above all people are really really sick to death of this conservative government that has taken them for granted that has trashed the economy uh and and people are you know voting in places like Harriet and nbor to uh to to to get rid of the conservatives I think probably a lot of people who followed this campaign will have in a way perhaps slightly confused views about your leader I think we’ve been discussing around this table and I think most people who watched his interview and his party election broadcast about being a Cara actually is one of the most profoundly moving things any of us have seen in politics for a very long time he’s obviously a caring and serious human being on the other hand there was an awful lot of very silly stunts how do we put those two things together well I mean I think Ed himself has always expressed it as he takes the voters very seriously he takes the issues very seriously but he doesn’t take himself very seriously um and I think and actually he’s the only party leader throughout this campaign whose approval ratings have actually gone up so I think that you know he was bringing forward some of these messages about the serious issues that people really care about uh on the one hand he’s talking about his own experiences that he struggles with uh with with with caring and he understands the struggles other people go through but on the other hand he’s somebody who gets stuck in you know who who who enjoys himself and I think a lot of people responded positively to the fact that he was having fun that this was a fun campaign it was an eye in campaign and I think that really sums up at Davey to be honest now there must have been moments as you looked at some of those opinion polls in recent weeks when you dared to dream when they were saying that you might replace the Tories as the official opposition party there must have been a moment where you thought my my that would be amazing it hasn’t quite happened not say you haven’t had a good night but it hasn’t been quite that good it was always our ambition to uh become the third party in Parliament again that’s been our ambition now for years and it’s something we’ve been working towards for a very long time much much longer than the uh than the the span of this uh general election campaign uh and we have very much I think achieved our ambition tonight assuming that the exit poll uh is correct uh and obviously very very encouraged by that result there for Tom Gordon in hargate um assuming that that exit poll is correct we will be the third party in in Parliament again we will be back as a you know a significant force in Parliament and winning seats in our traditional heartlands like like the West country and across the southeast and obviously it’s wonderful to have uh retake and harate okay Sarah thank you very much indeed for joining us now as we’ve discussed uh at quite some length already one of the emerging stories of the night has undoubtedly been the success of Reform UK and I’m pleased to say their Deputy leader David bull is here David thank you very much indeed for joining us on what uh clearly looks like it’s going to be a very good night for your party I mean little bit less clear I feel from the exit pole uh perhaps so maybe you can begin by just telling me what you actually think is going on I mean look if this exit poll is right that is an extraordinary result for us we are only four years old we’re an Insurgent party I remember Richard Ty sitting in my kitchen when we started the party you know when we were the brexit party we gave the conservative party an 80 seat majority and then we decided that actually we’d sort of put the party on ice and then we decided that on on the back of uh what the conservative party had done it was time to reactivate it and look this is an Insurgent party it is building from the ground up and I really hope that is right because I think what people have misunderstood is is the level of support the shy reformers those people like the shyre it is who didn’t declare to the polsters how they were going to vote and of course they’ve come out in their droves and there’s another recurring story here which is if you look at those six seats we came second I don’t think that’s been done in political history before can can I I just want to press you though on what you actually think’s happening on the ground do you think does that exit pole feel right from what you’re hearing back on the ground or high you think you’ll be higher you think you might be a bit lower well I think it’s pretty much in in where we were hoping in the uh median uh of the range for what we were expecting but actually what we’re doing is taking votes not just from the conservatives but also from labor from the red wall seats from those brexiters get that we’ve seen so it’s really interesting actually so what happens next for your party then let’s say you have a a pretty good night somewhere around 13 maybe it’s only eight maybe it’s 15 clearly that’s a massive change in British politics so what happens next well I think Nigel farage in the House of Commons will be very entertaining and will hold the government to account and the opposition I hear someone laughing over at the desk but I would go so far as to say we are the official opposition people are sick and tired you’re not the official opposition but people are sick and tired of the two- party stale politics that we’re seeing and and we’ve said all the way along the they’re kind of two sides of the same grubby coin and people want change immigration is far too high in this country we campaigned on that we campaigned on the economy on cost of living and I as a doctor wrote the health plan and that has huge resonance we could talk about this we could talk about immigration and this discussion that immigration is far too high um we could spend hours talking about that but that’s maybe a subject for for another day the Tory party has had a pretty awful night and it’s weird to be even talking about it in those terms because as a result of some of those polls coming out suggesting almost Total Wipeout we’re sort of viewing potentially getting 130 MPS as a bit of a you know not quite as bad as it could have been but let’s be plain it is clearly an absolute disaster the worst since 1832 that’s a catastrophy for them are you suggesting that you merge that you go in that you come reach an agreement what is what is the plan so I think we need to look at this in the cold light of day but there is no doubt the conservative party I think is over in its form we have five factions all pulling in different directions in the conservative party so there are members who are clearly feeling they are in the wrong party and would like to join us we’ll look at that I don’t know is the honest answer we need to see how the land lies in the morning and decide how we take this forward but surely you must have a plan Nigel farage has said he wants to be prime minister in five years time so he must have a plan I would never bet against Nigel well you’re not betting that’s a that’s that is that’s a new story in this election look final Point seriously you’ve had a very good night tonight in some ways well hopefully well hopefully from your point of view but you you you had a good campaign in some ways you had a really horrible campaign in some ways it was a clearly a lot of your candidates and supporters and terrible things said about the let me just okay well they may be a minority but they they’re people who were associated with or represented remove them we’ve removed them and and we actually had a very very strict uh vetting process we actually then brought in in a company to externally vet we paid them a lot of money they didn’t do the job now when the when the government and the Prime Minister an easy thing to say though I mean they’re people associated with your party it’s also the truth when the election was called we had to expedite that process and of course we were missing candidates we fielded 620 that’s pretty impressive for a very small new party um so just in terms of that and and I’ve been very clear about this as has Richard and Nigel we will not tolerate homophobia or anti-semitic abuse or indeed islamophobia or anything and the minute we find them they are out so that’s the bad part of the campaign the good part of the campaign is we’re winning with and this is really interesting 18 to 24 year olds have come out in their droves to support as we believe over 55s and Men okay interesting well David thank you for joining us I’m going to put all of that uh to Jane as I walk back to the V thank you very much Tom I think you know so one of the things one of the things we have to be um careful about in election nights we don’t yet know the vote share that reform have achieved and we don’t yet know how many seats that they’re going to win so we have an exit pole that’s telling us it could be 13 that could be lower um if we think about this kind of the possibility that there were shy reform voters we cannot possibly answer that and actual fact the polls were putting the reform share somewhere between 14 and 20% so we could be the upper end of that and that would be entirely consistent with people just saying they wanted to vote for reform UK and doing so rather than this kind of idea of a shy vote so we don’t know yet um it’s also interesting I think you know we just heard that reform is getting more votes amongst men but um reform does have a problem with women um so if we look at the gender gap across different parties in terms of men and women are they more or less likely to vote for each of the parties we see a little bit of a lead amongst men for the conservatives a little bit of a lead amongst women for labor and the greens but a huge difference for reform UK and you can see the graph here um on the screen that shows just how big that gender gap is in terms of women being much less likely to support reform UK and that’s interesting too because reform is taking many more voters from the Tories as I keep saying those are older voters on average so it will be the older women in particular who haven’t swung behind reform perhaps they’ve stayed at home doesn’t you know we don’t know yet but it’s very likely that they have stayed at home rather than going to the conservative at least on the basis of them being undecided and not being willing to vote for reform so we don’t know if there are sh reform voters yet we do know that reform has a problem with women you I mean there’s one thing about this result there’s no doubt reform has had a massive impact on the election right and absolutely decimated the Tory party absolutely but what we don’t yet know it’s why it’s worth being awake for the next few hours is whether they’ve turned that into a sizable Block in Parliament the you know the exit poll says 13 seats but it could could be many fewer than that and I think that’s the sort of second part of the reform story if they don’t translate it into a sizable Block in Parliament they’ll have had a b impact there’ll still be a lot of conversation about them but there won’t be a kind of Menace in Parliament there’ll be a menace outside Parliament as they’ve been over many years and their different forms like brexit and ukip so there still a key thing in this election is do they win these knife edge contests do you actually have a sizable block does his claim that will be the opposition in Parliament remotely stack up or is it actually still going to be a tiny number but George and we don’t know that yet we don’t know that but we do know that M it will be millions of people have voted for them and that will dominate your Pary election you know that will dominate the election of a new le leader that will be what it’s all about whether how do you get those votes back you think I think you have to be careful about here I mean I um just looking at the seat of South Shields labor hold not one we’ve even talked about when you look at South Shields labors vote down by 5,000 small rise in the reform vote but actually there’s been a huge rise in the share of the vote for the greens they’re actually up 11.6 percentage points also armed KH an independent gets 2,200 votes I mean actually there is another small party story aside from reform which is greens and independent eating into labor votes for the labor government I would say immediately in the next one or two years years what’s happening on the the left greens and these Independents especially as foreign policy becomes more complicated it’s going to be as big an issue a bigger issue for Kier starma um he’ll be watching reform watching the toy party worrying about delivery right now what’s going on with the greens and the independence will be really important there are reports that Jeremy Corbin may win in isington North which again will worry him the point about you know watching the left and particularly the greens I I mean we don’t have a single Scottish result yet I don’t know what it’s taken so long but one of the things I’d be looking at tonight is the green vote in in seats they’re standing there you know has the SNP opened a flank you know with them ending the partnership agreement of becoming a bit more sck with the greens would be the general rule wouldn’t it based on why I’m in Scotland I would stick with the greens I would have stuck with the greens yes but that’s my view but I will be you know it may not turn out to be the case but I will successors do so frustrating isn’t it I’m not going to rise to your bited second go second second go may be Third Time Lucky I I think we just had a tip in Tom that labor has taken Nan and sat here in 2015 and when nanan went conservative I said that means the conserva is going to get an overall majority I knew I was maybe n has been a bell weather since 97 always gone the way of the elected government not a surprise tonight but just to say nanon takes bring back memories I mean that was the seat I was looking for in 2015 as the chancellor and when I saw nanan we started thinking my God we actually are on for a majority I start to feel queasy at and the consera vote they’re down 32% I hear another interesting thing we haven’t really talked about the one of the problems that labor has had which is some traditional labor voters Muslims or people who feel passionately about what’s going on in Gaza and erosion of Labor’s vote in those seats where there is a density of people with those views there are reports coming in that in fact George Galloway hasn’t kept that seat he won in the bi elction and Paul War the labor candidate may have won in Rochdale so Paul War the labor candidate has not been disowned by the labor party which is a bit of a change from the viol there is evidence in the exit pole analysis that we’re doing upstairs that um Labor’s share is somewhat down in areas with higher proportions of Muslims but that it’s a weak relationship it’s quite a small effect we’ve talked a lot about domestic policy and you’ve had on you know we talked about the health health policy the economy you know the last Labor government was completely dominated by foreign policy the Iraq War and uh you know the first challenge as we’ve just been discussing is actually probably going to be a foreign policy challenge Israel policy Gaza policy and you know we don’t it doesn’t feature often in general elections but you’re going to have a labor government dealing with potentially a far-right government in France elected in a few days time a trump president you know Rebellion within labor pressure from the greens over the Gaza policy where K St has essentially taken the same position as rich sunak uh you know it’s just fascinating the foreign policy can end up totally dominating the domestic politics and it just doesn’t feature in manifestos in the same way as happens government econom it’s quite unusual for it to happen in opposition isn’t it Anushka thank you I want to talk to you about the exit pole um I mentioned that earlier tonight I actually got to go close to the exit pole not actually in the room but close nearby and a couple of doors way I actually said to someone there it was the most exciting thing that had ever happened in my life they then pointed out that I have three children so I had to readjust that but I just want to talk to you about the accuracy of it using our seat tracker I can’t actually believe Tom that it’s already 10 to2 and I’ve not shown it you yet but this is my exciting other toour for the night so basically this counts all the seats that a single party gets up the side and all the seats that are declared through the night along the bottom to be on track for majority you have to be in that diamond along the middle now let’s show you where the exit pole puts the parties okay so there you can see labor very very solidly in that diamond looking if this is correct like we will get through that majority line at 430 in the morning the conservatives much lower down I’ve actually kept on the lib Dems there just to show you how close the Tories look to the lib demems on this graph now could it be wrong is there any chance that in a few hours from now we’re going to look at this and labor are going to be dropping out of that well let me show you how accurate they can be by putting this up for 2017 okay let’s stick the exit pole in for 2017 do you remember this one okay there we go and then let me overlay the actual results you can see that generally they are very very accurate it would have to be very bad for it to go that wrong tonight but we will be tracking it as the Real Results start to rush in okay initi can I just I’m going to come over to you for a sec can we just go back cuz I don’t really feel like we’ve necessarily um talked about this quite as much as we could for a bit can we go can we go back to the cabinet list um is it possible to bring that up um and maybe we can bring in George to talk about this okay let’s let’s talk about the let’s just run through again want to put the exit pole data in yeah let’s put the exit pole data in and think see who we think is a Survivor and who is not so George can I just bring you in on this convers ation who in your view are of the remaining people we think are going to keep their seats who are the runners and Riders top three or four people that you would pick out as certain to run and can you just talk us through that balance yeah well so the you know the person widely regarded as the front runner is Kimmy badok uh and she’s been the business secretary up until I guess the next few hours uh and she is certainly you know made her Mark in politics and uh you know it’s worth noting she is a black woman and very prominent uh cly the most senior position that a black woman has reached in the conservative party and the fact she’s the front runner for the conservative party is I would say evidence of actually very positive change that’s happened in the conservative body but so she’s the front runner uh others would be pretty Patel not to be underestimated she’s the ex-home secretary why is she a front runner she makes one big claim I can bring both Boris Johnson and Nigel farage who support me to the table and put the family back together true well I think it is true that she has a she she hasn’t been disloyal to Boris Johnson after you know his fall and she does she used to actually work back in the day for a of earlier version of Reform uh and uh so she knows farage because you’re talking about this I’d love to bring up a different group here we’ve actually and we’ll talk about this more through the night we’ve actually ranked all conservative MP from left wing to right wing and we’ve got a rightwing group that I’ll pull up because you’ve obviously started on the right you can see that actually quite a lot of people look like they could lose their seats but let’s just pull up um the two that you just mentioned where is Northwest essic S6 Northwest with them is Prett I’ll just pull it up for you in a second um can we find that on there um in the second row about halfway down you can see Essex Northwest there um oh that’s Wickam but in the middle I’ll put it for you ess6 Northwest so that’s Cy badut seat that you’ve mentioned and actually just below it you can see swella braan seat and you’ve obviously mentioned with him in fact it’s alphabetical so I can do it really quite easily in the final um corner there which is pretty Patel so just mention you know also there’s Tom tugen har he’s on the left of the party he will almost certainly hold his seat tonight there’s a big question over someone called Robert genrich people will know ex immigration Minister he’s in nework I don’t know what your uh we should check was being projected he’s been projected to hold his seat and actually tonight people who are clearly going to work for his leadership campaign some of whom I think have moved over from swella braan are already suggesting that he could be a front runner so I think those are some of the runners and Riders uh we will see so who would you nominate of those we not doing that on this show not yet oh go on I want to see what come on it’s like midnight it’s way in the middle of the night surely the liberal I can pull up for you is that would you prefer the liberal board to the right-wing conservative board well I fundamentally think you know the conservative part has lost the labor and uh in order to win back from labor you have to move towards those people who’ve L you got to be the party of aspiration again and who do you think is going to win of anger I mean it slightly depends on who actually keeps the seat if you were going to put money on it now you would put it on K bad that is who the members plainly like it is in the end it goes to the members of the T party um but I mean we we I’ll have a better view when I see you know come 6:00 in the morning how many of the runner Riders have seats but I just want to point watch Pretty Patel watch Pretty Patel at the moment go to the move the center I don’t understand about it but pretty pel is currently pretty unpopular with the members I don’t quite know why that is but she’s really so it is it is odd I just want to make one point though because this is I don’t know if you’ve seen the ra and Wickford result this is that rare thing a conservative hold Mark fris massively on the right of the party you could see him in certain circumstances actually you know being in the same party as Nigel farage but his vote fell from almost 399,000 when keeping the seat to less than 18,000 it’s a disaster for the Conservative Party eight safest conservative seat in the country yes and Clon is the ninth for this isn’t there a risk with all of this with what you’re saying if you pretty Patel as a leader or if you had swell bravman as a leader someone very much on the right of the party but you’ve only got say 131 MPS are there not too many on your liberal Wing who just aren’t going to go with how many would it take to trigger a confidence no but look you know let’s take K sta K sta decided to serve in Jeremy Corbin’s Shadow cabinet when many many labor MPS including Rachel Reeves including IET Cooper refused but he used that as a bridge to become the leader and then shifted dramatically to the center and expelled Jeremy Corbin so you can win on the right is what you then choose to do he also found the issue which the members cared most about at the time which was the second referendum that was his his his his base for becoming the labor leader and then once he became the labor leader his move to the center ground also meant ditch just just on George’s point the candidate who I think has studied starmore in that way I think jich is the candidate who will win from the right and then potentially move the party to the left okay can I can I just ask you all a question though to keep it really simple the the the job that you and David Cameron did in 2005 when I first met you and you were taking over the T party I mean not to rerun everything of that era but you know yeah I went off with David to hug huskys in slightly absurd trip to sbad uh which the whole the story every single thing you did was about decontaminating as you saw it the Tory brand moving to the center in the same hang on Tom hang on Tom to win the election you have to win first and then you decontaminate to win the election yeah he did deals with the right of the conservative party which meant leaving the European People’s Party the center right group true um true that you can no true but but in the end you have to this is is my question do do you the three of you in fact all of us run the table but let’s start with the three of you politicians do you agree leaving aside all political party allegiances and everything else do you believe that in order to win again the Tories would need to move to the center or do you think things have changed David Cameron brought two things to the party which K starma also brought to labor and they the last you know one was the last opposition leader who became prime minister the other is about to become the prime minister so first of all they both looked like a prime minister in Waiting from the first day and they lots of opposition leaders it’s very unfair my great friend William ha Ian Duncan Smith Ed millerand Jeremy Corbin who never ever looked like they can be the Prime Minister gear St on day one looked like he could be the Prime Minister David Cameron did second thing is they both you know won their party uh uh leadership and then shifted right to where they thought they needed to win the general election and they were ruthless about doing it after and that is what you know but they also came after several disast attempts by both the conservative party and the lab party in opposition to go further to the extreme and so we don’t know whether the next Tory leader is going to be the next story prime minister or recent history would suggest there’ll be an interim person who probably takes the party in the wrong direction and eventually the hunger to win will overcome the ideological opposition and the kind of lunacy of like why isn’t the electorate listening to us can Tom can I sorry to in but we’ve had quite an interesting result from Barnsley North which has been held by labor and this is a constituency where the brexit party came in very close second place to labor at the 2019 election and the Assumption was and indeed I think in even the exit pole the Assumption was that reform would win that but of course what the exit pole can’t do very well understandably is take into account local factors and this is one of those seats where reform disowned their own candidate and said even if you win you’re going to have to Citizen independent for making very distasteful sort of racially prejudiced remarks he clearly hasn’t labor apparently won by majority of about 8,000 so the elector at least have taken that on board shall we say mood is the same could happened in bansy South as well yeah okay and just and just to be clear there’s a there’s a recount in Basildon so hold on the party chairman May okay we’ll we’ll hold on Basildon um I feel like there’s a phrase for that but that’s probably not it um I’ve joined by a very excellent panel uh at this point uh in the evening Miranda Green from the lims Aisha Hazara labor Pier former Aid to Harriet Harman amongst many other things standup comedian there’s a long list columnist Gavin bwell former Chief of Staff uh in number 10 Downing Street where would we start where do any of you want to start what a night so far uh complete catastrophe for the Tories which somehow feels like it’s not the catastrophe that we thought it was going to be extraordinary result for labor but kind of complicated when you read into the Weeds about it all Miranda maybe you start great night for the lib Dems really great night for the lib Dem we perhaps haven’t talked about that as much as we think how are you reading tonight well it seems to me one of the interesting things is how labor could achieve this large majority on quite a low vote share and the fact that voters have gone to other smaller parties including the libdems and of course there’s this reform surge but it’s almost as if there’s that kind of fracturing of the electorate that we sort of saw in maybe EUR elections to the European Parliament a few years ago but tends to disappear at general elections as people sort of stream back towards the kind of blue and red blocks and something quite different seems to have happened this time maybe because people were so motivated by getting rid of the conservative government that they kind of reached for the nearest weapon to hand you know it’s been described as a sort of punishment beating election for the Tories so you use the you know you use the the the thing to whack them with that’s nearest to you locally um and I think it therefore will have a really strange and interesting outcome in terms of what those opposition benches in the House of Commons are going to be like you know how’s that going to work you’re for the first time going to have two potentially competing voices on the right you know you’re going to have the libdems trying to work out can they oppose starma from the sort of slightly less Center left ground or do they become a bit more C bang on Center kite in their pitch you you’ll potentially have these voices on the left as well if Corbin wins that seat where it seems to be teetering on the brink so I think you know the dynamic in the House of Commons is going to be absolutely fascinating to watch as a result of all this I I always think it’s really hard on nights like you know here we are in the studio it’s the middle of the night and it’s quite hard to get a sense of what we’re feeling when we wake up tomorrow and kind of everything has changed it’s not just that the government’s changed to some extent it changes the whole mood of the country after such a long period of tour rule I mean what are you your thoughts at this point in this evening well look I think you can you can do view this through the lens of punditry which is like don’t go for the obvious story maybe kind of come in through a different angle but I think to most normal people when they wake up in the morning it will be a historic time for them because they have lived under a conservative Administration for such a long time there will be people you know who have never sort of grown up other you know than than having a Tory government and I think there will be I understand the sense of disillusionment in politics but I think people will feel a palpable sense of relief that change has finally come because I think the lived experience of people up and down the country unless you’re like the super super wealthy people feel that after 14 years of conservative government this country is really broken on every single level economic social the fabric of people’s communities political politically it just feels like everything is really freed so yes there’s going to be lots of analysis about reform there’ll be analysis about you know how manageable you know how shallow the this kind of majority will be but it’s also a moment in history let’s not forget in the last 100 years there have only ever been six labor Prime Ministers of that only four were elected so whatever the figures are we’ll cut and dice and splice them a win is a win and when Kia starma took over even even when you look at the heartley poool by elction which was not that long ago people were saying you know what I don’t think is you know he might be a caretaker leader who gets labor you know does they do a wee bit better in the next set of general elections but we’re out of the game for another sort of two seasons and I think what he has done in a very short space of time is remarkable so I think for me that is the big story of the night history is being made tonight and Britain is going to change tomorrow Gavin my memory of you towards the end of Theresa May’s premier when you were chief of staff was uh exasperation uh tending to something slightly darker about your uh party in terms of your feelings about it I mean what what what are your thoughts tonight I mean you just seemed so frustrated with the way it was behaving and the way many MPS were behaving so what are your Reflections tonight after what’s let’s face it being an utterly dismal election campaign mixed emotions um you know some of us have been warning that this has been coming for a long time and we weren’t listened to but I think trying to look forward there are three really big strategic problems the conservative party’s got one is the age profile of its vote if no one changes their mind next time there’ll be a further swing away from the conservative party because many of its voters will die off over the next five years so you’ve got to do something about the age profile of the vote the second problem you’ve got is this division on the right you know labor struggled with this in the in 198s after the sdp broke off it is it is really hard to win when the right is divided but the idea that just aping reform is a solution to the problem is completely wrong you’ll lose more voters in the center and the third thing is is the Tactical voting which is what have really led to this result being so catastrophically bad and there’s always been in the conservative party what I would call a MW tendency some people who have glorified in leftwing people not liking us and what we’ve learned today is that actually being really unpopular with a large chunk of the electorate has real world consequences in terms of tactical voting against you so there’s three big problems there that whoever you know I I heard George speculating on who the candidates might be I’m less interested in personality I want someone that’s got a strategic answer to those three point I’m going to come right back to you Aisha but we swinder North is about to declare so we’re just going to go there and see what’s happened they can the stage right more efficient I know get more room yes I um ladies and gentlemen this is the Declaration of the result of poll for the election of a Member of Parliament for Swindon North I Sam M being the acting returning officer at the above election do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows Andy Bentley Green Party 2,366 Flo clucas liberal Democrat 2086 Debbie Hicks independent 260 Scott Victor abis Hunter trade unionist and socialist Coalition 139 will Stone labor party 17,93 Justin Paul Tomlinson the Conservative Party candidate 13,820 lesz Willis reform UK 7,557 there were 124 rejected ballot papers and the turnout at this election was 60.4% and I do hereby declare that will okay interesting result there I’m just don’t have my magic iPad in front of me so I’m going to ask someone else to bring up just the change in the share of the vote can we have a look at the change in the share of the vote for a second um Colin can I just ask you to chip in from the other side of the studio absolutely a pattern that we’ve been seeing in many of these seats tonight Tom the conservative vote down very sharply indeed um being split largely between labor and reform and here again a seat where brexit did not contest in 2019 so they’re coming from a flat base but clearly many of those conservative voters from 2019 are as happy to vote for reform tonight as they are for labor but this is the safer of the Swindon seats and what we said about Robert Buckland apply as much to Justin Tomlinson this is Southern England is very extensive housing developments so sort of a younger population a different kind of demographic and yet so so Labor’s back but there’s still that underlying reform core as well is a better for for labor than we’ve seen in quite a lot of um seats so I mean this is quite a big jump in the labor vote here so one of the things that the exit poll has been telling us and this is the first seat where we have a sort of Exemplar of the pattern that we’re expecting is that the conservatives would do worse in leave areas where the brexit party didn’t stand last time this is the first leave constituency where the brexit party didn’t stand last time and that’s exactly the result that we would have been expecting Aisha can I come back to you you were about to make a point which may or may not be relevant to Swindon North I just wanted to pick up on what um Gavin said and and I have lost many elections with the we’re very good at losing um elections and I think what’s really important for the conservatives is not to learn the wrong lessons from this so the comfort zone will not to be focusing on the fact that labor has done really well the comfort zone Position will be o reform let’s all become completely obsessed with chasing reform and we have learned there some painful experience in the labor party is that the tendency is to lean into your comfort zone we went further to the left thinking that that’s you know some kind of political Utopia uh Le in that direction and the conservatives I’m sure they will chase that direction on the right but they would be they would be absolutely wrong to do that okay Governor I let you pick up on that but just before you do James krnel has lost Colchester to labor I’m just being told now James krnel the Olympic rower uh who put himself at the Forefront of a day’s news coverage in the campaign by saying something that I probably can’t say uh even at uh 2:10 a.m. in the morning on our show but it wasn’t very polite about his own party didn’t do much good he hasn’t won so I was just I completely agree with what a said and I think you got to learn the lesson of History 1979 labor went in the wrong direction 1997 conservative party went in the wrong direction it took eight years until David Cameron and George Osborne finally got us starting to recover I don’t want to wait eight years for the conservative party to learn this lesson and labor in 2010 as well right and also you’re already hearing it tonight I’ve heard so many conservative commentators really sensible conservative commentators go do you know you know what it’s not as bad as we thought it was going to be cuz we’re over the 100 Mark and you’re like no no no no no guys that is totally the one way it’s the worst since 1832 but it’s not that bad them over there Miranda but also if you look at the territory that the conservatives are losing tonight if they make those mistakes there’s a real danger that that territory is then gone you know they’ve lost places that have never been lost before tonight so it’s actually a whole new ball game in terms of whether they screw this up frankly you know those bits of the southeast where people because of demographic change have moved out of the cities and are now voting libdem if it’s convenient for them or labor in other places if they continue those patterns and if those demographic changes kind of embed there and they make these mistakes then a whole bunch of Southern England is lost to the Tory party F final thought it is a mark of the Strategic disaster of the last few years that we have simultaneously convinced one group of electors that we’re to rightwing and another group that we’re not conservative enough and that’s what happens when you talk populist right and then you fail to deliver and one final thought for me Scotland very very important to see labor making such a comeback in Scotland when the S&P has been so dominant for such a long time okay thank you very much indeed for your time uh and I will bring all that back uh to the desk any thoughts from anyone as Jane I feel like you you’re about to say something um we talked haven’t we we’ve talked here and we’ve just been listening to this conversation about what the conservative party needs to do and Nicolas said something which I thought was incredibly important earlier which is that parties don’t just respond badly to defeat they also tend to fight the last election and I think the the difficulty I’ve had looking at this conservative government over the last years is that it seemed to me that they were essentially trying to refight the 2019 election in the belief that the Boris Johnson Coalition would be enough for a victory the problem there is that the Boris Johnson Coalition is now substantially smaller and so the reasons that people backed Boris Johnson in 2019 were to L A lot to do with brexit of course that was a majority opinion to back leave in the referendum what the conservatives have done is to is to chase after minority opinions and a very small proportion of the electorate in in many regards and so if you look at the age profile and was talking about this the average age now that you become a Tory if you look at the kind of correlations the relationships is 70 and so you’re not going to win an election if you appeal to the over 70s obviously what we’re seeing tonight as well is that’s compounded by the splitting of the right the problem is is if you go chasing after those right um of Center or right-wing voters you’re not going to get them all back so you’re not going to get all of those reform voters back at the same time you’re going to alienate those voters you’re all also losing to the labor party so we’ve talked loads about reform the conservative party is also losing voters to labor those are working age voters that the conservatives absolutely have to attract again okay we just got some pictures I’m told of Kia starma arriving at his count in hurn this is uh almost certainly and as the uh early results in the exit pole are catastrophically wrong which realistically I don’t think they’re going to be at this stage in the evening K sta is going to be our prime minister in the course of tomorrow we’ll have the usual comings and goings where she soon out will be leaving Downing Street going to the palace and K Tama will be arriving there speaking of what parties need to do when they’ve had a bad night Nicola can I ask you if this turns out to be the result we expect from the S SMP what do John you’re very close to John S what does he do I should say I’m hearing that there are a lot of recounts uh underway or about to be underway in Scotland that’s just what I’m hearing but that might explain why we haven’t had a single result yet I’m also hearing that uh things are looking better for Steven Flynn but again that’s only uh information that is secondhand look I mean first thing I would say is John s’s leadership is under no threat regardless of the result tonight um he will lead the S SMP into the 2026 Hollywood election there might the same might not have been true atza us have still been leader tonight but that’s not the situation we are in um and I think the mistake opposition parties will make is if this is there is or anything like it tonight is just assuming that you know the S&P is dead bued for 2026 uh yes the S&P has to uh reestablish Trust on some of the core competence and government issues we’ve been in government for 17 years you know this is a really difficult time for any party of government but that doesn’t let us off the hook we’ve got to do that and John is you know absolutely the guy to really take on that challenge and you know as I was saying earlier on on on Independence the independence issue is not going away but we need to you know Focus hard again on making relevant to the issues that concern people in their day-to-day lives which you know shouldn’t be Beyond is but that is the challenge Independence is not some abstract goal it’s absolutely about how we build a better country raise living standards make people better off so these are the challenges for the SNP it will feel coming out of tonight you know if if the result is anything like the exit pole that that is a mountain to climb but we should take a bit of time and refocus ourselves and I don’t think it h it is game over in any sense for the S&P final point I would make is about the aspiration and in tune with young people um I think the party’s got to watch that we have you know for a long time now enjoyed majority support amongst young people we’ve got to the ending of the deal with the greens what appears to be a slight softening of our commitment on climate change I think we’ve got to be very careful on that and not not fall into the Trap of moving H perhaps a bit to the right although the will never be rightwing but a bit to the right of where we have been I think that would be a mistake so these are you can just see on the right of your screen there um that Lee Anderson has just walked on of course defected from the Tory party to reform is the candidate there and they are about to announce whether he has won C at this election is as follows Lee Anderson reform UK 17,6 [Applause] alexand the green party 1,100 Daniel Holmes liberal Democrats 619 Ria key labor party 11,553 de Sol for conservative party C 3,271 Jason’s rosney the Ashfield Independence putting people before Politics [Applause] 6,276 the number of ballot papers rejected was 102 the vacant seat is one the electorate was 68,9 129 Val papers issued 39,9 186 and the turnout was 58% one I do hereby declare that Lee Anderson is duly elected well that is a resounding result uh from the people of Ashfield and let’s hear what he uh lean Defector from the Tories has to say about it massive thank you to all the staff that’s been here tonight help with incredibly hard and all the people that’s worked um throughout this election campaign special thanks to as your District Council uh but the biggest thanks of the night goes to my wonderful team over there who have stood by my side and watched me being grumpy over the past six weeks um they’ve been fantastic and I could not have done it without them I I stood in this town my hometown four and a half years ago as a Conservative candidate down one and I W come it and the people of Ashfield back me and now back me again as the reform candidate for Ashfield I said a few weeks back that there was going to be a recking on Election night and Ashfield which is the capital of Comm sense they B of that recking now this wonderful place which I call my home is going to have a massive setting in how this country is shaped in the future I want my country back and Nashville can play their part in that thank you there we are um Ashfield he he is in George first of all dougas sorry we’re just Douglas Alexander is in I’ll come to Nichol to talk about that in a second but Douglas Alexander obviously U do we call him a grande of the old Labor uh colleague of EDS uh former Shadow foreign secretary etc etc etc uh lost toari black um back in anyway Leon yeah I mean look it’s a big moment this is the First Reform elected Member of Parliament in had a general election in in our history and uh and you know I think you have to say that if Lee Anderson had stood as a conservative he would have lost so he actually stuck with the party where he was Deputy chairman just uh he was thrown out of the party for saying something racist and you know the risk I think you know of tonight is there’re going to be a load of conservatives saying how did Lee Anderson ever leave we’ve got to get the Reform Party back and people like him back and meanwhile and we went to there because it’s such a big result with all these other places like rexam and Colchester you know that have declared just going to bring up the changeing the share of the vote George sorry while you’re talking have bring on screen red car all the all these places that we’ve lost to labor and the conversation is not going to be about losing to labor it’s all going to be about reform even though tonight you know that’s what’s actually happening but it’s results like this that are actually that are going to shape the conservative conversation uh and the polit a lot of the political conversation for the next couple years it’s really interesting um I mean the other thing just to point out is in terms of other bad news for the Tory party one of their best communicators Jillian Anderson it’s what you know pre it’s been accepted both by the Tories and by the lib D Jillian Keegan what did I say J ohas it would be great it would be great if J was standing turns out she’s not it’s only 2:20 you can’t go confusing them until at least 4 in the morning there are going to be lots of other amusing mistakes before morning but anyway um the yeah Jillian Keegan she’s not going to complain to be clear about this sorry good communicator uh uh she’s gone she’s gone and it hasn’t been formally announced but Liams are claiming it Tories are conceding privately it’s over one of the interesting things about the Ashfield result is it wasn’t actually one of the top results in the pole expected for reform um so I it’s just a little story about how it feels on Election night you look at one of those seats and you say okay well maybe reform are going to hit the 13 and then you see a heartly poor result declared for labor and that was actually one of the seats that reform were expected to take so maybe these things balance out we’re just about to get kiss arm’s declaration at Halburn not exactly a knife edge but you know our first chance to hear him and hear what he’s got to say so we’ll go to that as soon as we get it Nicola can I just ask you about about Douglas Alexander being back in obviously somebody I guess you would know pretty well over the years not a particular surprise I mean probably the least surprising of the Scottish results tonight it was the most marginal S&P labor constituency I think only needed a swing of two two% probably more than that it was also a seat where the S SMP MP elected then defected to Alex ammon’s outfit so a bit of history there so you know congratulations to Douglas but not a surprise in any way shape or form his uh campaigners so I understand I’ve been going around telling everybody he’s going to be the next foreign secretary so that might be news to David Lamy yeah well it certainly might is that true well I think it’s actually a really uh important moment not because of what job um Douglas Alexander gets but the fact that you will have a big labor Beast who is Scottish and this has been such a problem if you think back to 1997 when labor came into government um you had Donald Jer you had George Robertson um you had um you know Robin Cook Robin cook a whole series darling Scottish figures who were both labor and West Minister and Scottish and there’s been none of those now for labor for so long so you either Scottish or you were in Westminister you couldn’t be both and that is such a problem for labor because it looks like um it’s not a Scottish unionist party in Westminster and so douas Alexander being back if I were K starm I would need him in my government because I would want a big Scottish beast in my government somewhere that’s the important thing doesn’t that get difficult though when you’ve had all these people who’ve been shadowing and then you have to I mean these are the decisions of leadership right they’re not they’re not very easy I don’t think he’ll get um you know a big job immediately I don’t think he’ll become the foreign secretary immediately or anything like that but but you know it is very hard for labor if it looks like in Westminister it’s an English or Welsh but not a Scottish party and you know to be fair only having one labor MP or now two has made that very difficult you need quickly some Scottish cabinet members even without I mean you know I take that point but I think it’s inconceivable that Douglas Alexander wouldn’t be in a Liber government pretty quickly you know here here he is sorry Nichola this is um this is uh to state the blindingly obvious this is our new prime minister in Waiting arriving at his count in Halburn um which he’s clearly going to win easily with his wife he looks pretty happy and why wouldn’t you because he’s pulled off what looks uh to all intents and purposes like a historic Victory I think is a historic Victory we can pretty much Say by now chatting to people looking relaxed not to know how to conduct yourself I guess at moments like this right you won you don’t want to look too triumphant but you do want to look it’s a good to have scale SC SC problems to have how to behave as the prime minister in waiting at your count when you’ve won yeah yeah labor of won rushcliffe uh Ken Clark’s see I’m just being told CEST yes we mentioned that James red car has gone through and canic Chase which was down about 300 on the target list been trending conservative for a long time but of course another seat that labor had during the Blair years and rexam as we look at K C Ryan Reynold what’s interesting your friend Alex chalk I’m afraid we expected it gone I mean he clung on last time just it’s quite striking um with some of these well seats and also in the exit pole that labor isn’t getting punished for the Welsh labor government that has had you know a high degree of dissatisfaction it seems so labor is going to do very well it looks like in Wales and the conservatives could be facing the kind of wipe out that they last experienced in 2001 so incumbency has been a big problem for the conservatives in England yeah incumbency a problem for the S SMP in Scotland there’s been lots of problems for Welsh labor in Cardiff exactly and been censured there and yet doesn’t seem to be affecting the labor performance EX okay so here’s kiss Arma shaking hands preparing to we haven’t even got to the Declaration yet um but that seems a little bit beside the point in this constituency there were lots of K we’re in the we’re in his constituency here this studio aren’t we yes there were lots of K posters as I arrived at the studio all in the houses around well listen I think you you can say can you not with a degree of certainty he fought an incredibly effective campaign I mean like if we’re really being honest about it but there wasn’t one mistake Tom really there was not one bad photo opportunity there was not one you know angry encounter with a voter there was not one policy that fell apart I mean only extion disciplined The Only Exception was the kind of couple of days dealing with Dian Abbott right towards the beginning of the campaign but other than that it was the most disciplined campaign and the veterans would say they’ve not seen a campaign like this I mean I think this is better than than the campaigns I’ve seen in the last 20 30 years it was REM because as somebody was you know following you know both camps around I have to say Tor campaign was about the most shambolic campaign I’ve ever come across really weird decisions being taken all the time sort of captured by that last day when they went on great ITV program this morning uh and you know is sort of photographed talking to Britain’s most tattoo Mom with her clothes off and reveals that his favorite meal is a sandwich I really struggle to believe anybody could have thought that would have swayed aren’t the two things any votes whatsoever you know I I don’t want to I think lab have fought a good campaign but it hasn’t been put under significant pressure because the toy campaign has been so utterly shambolic um and so in a sense they’ve been they’ve had the space to run a Flawless campaign that they might not otherwise kind of but but the media puts them under pressure and the pressure comes from whether you step or misstep and actually to go through a whole campaign where you’ve not had a single Big K St mishap on the road where you’ve not had a day where you had a Noises Off moment a leak which has kind of caused you embarrassment a policy unraveling I mean it’s just very very unusual look we can sit and say would we have W run this campaign would we wanted more of a Mand all those things but just within the context of a political campaign it be brilliant I tell you I this I just didn’t understand the Tory campaign from beginning to end I just well think right I mean I think you could understand what they were trying to do at the outset which was to try to get the undecided voters back and to try to get it was the so-called reform squeeze right so the idea was that if you you know talked about national service for young people this would somehow mobilize those reform voters convince them that the conservative party was the party for them they didn’t need to go to Nigel farage of course it’s backfired but that was I think you know the thinking behind it and of course it hasn’t happened in fact if anything they’ve pushed more people away if you call the campaign and you surprise everyone the people who shouldn’t be most surprised to your own HQ and although it took a few days for the late part to kind of get into gear they did get into gear and I never also I also thought this of the starm campaign you know you could sometimes you can fall into trap of seeing remote not connected with people he didn’t really attract that charge he didn’t look particularly flustered he wasn’t always front and center was as Fleet on his feet in the debate as he lost we’re we’re we’re obviously as we’re watching kiss dama arriving at his count making his very slow way to the stage in order to hear his declaration Charlene is there Charlene um looks like quite an atmosphere I have to say from where we’re sitting uh well it is and I think he’s making his slow way there because uh he’s not dued to get his results until about 2:45 so he can enjoy a Victory lap of sorts I suppose like as you’ve been saying I don’t think uh any one’s under any illusions that he is likely to to win this for for labor because it’s a safe labor seat but he’s surrounded by supporters you know you said you don’t know how someone’s supposed to you know act when they haven’t officially won or officially become Prime Minister as yet but I think he’s doing a rather good job he’s surrounded by so many supporters here at the Hoban and some Paneras account as I said in about 10 minutes or so he’ll takes that stage and he’ll find out exactly what his majority is I mean last time around it was 27 ,000 so it be interesting to see whether that takes a dip or whether or not that has um gone up but you know we are looking now if I look at these shots now you’ve got all of the the Press hanging around taking pictures of him as well as the supporters and you know this is an interesting time for his wife Victoria of course because she’s been thrown into the spotlight in a way that we have never seen before and she has never really experienced before so I think it’s it’s probably more of a difficult situation for her rather than than him what with her husband like to become prime minister tomorrow but he will take to that stage with all of the other candidates in the not too distant future and he will find out for sure uh exactly what his majority has been this has been a labor seat since 1983 since Frank Dobson of course until K sta took over in 2015 so you know he knows he’s going to win but it’ll be interesting to see whether he’s done enough to to gain from last time round back in 2019 but you know in terms of turnout there’s been a a drop uh turnout wise uh in his constituency I believe uh last time around it was 59.1% this time round it’s 54% a slight dip but a dip nevertheless and as you’ve been explaining Tom throughout the program it’s something that is reflected elsewhere in terms of constituencies there has been a slight drop in this people that would historically come out uh to vote so you know him you know the the turnout taken a drop here is almost unsurprising I suppose uh but I guess what is important for Kar is whether or not he’s done enough to uh to to you know go up from where he was at uh in 2019 because actually in 2019 he took a drop of about 3,000 from the time before uh but as you’ve said before he has done no missteps in terms of this campaign and I guessing that his constituents will show him that and they will have appreciated that one would hope he would hope uh he would hope that they’ve appreciated that and and he would hope that people have gone out and un voted for him but you know as as I’ve said we’ve got oh let me take a look uh just under 10 minutes until he finds out for sure that he has definitely done enough to win the majority here but as you know only too well Tom this is a safy he knows he’s going to win okay Charlene thank you very much indeed let’s come back in here Colin you got some things to say Rochdale is a labor that’s what I was wanting to tell you Tom rale I’ve spoiled your surprise no not at all but it was on the screen that’s I saw it there too but you were concentrating so hard on what Charlene had to tell you okay hold on a sec let’s take the Rell declaration important ladies and gentlemen this is Declaration of the uh result of the poll for the election of a member of parliament for Rochdale on Thursday 4th July 2024 I Steve rblo being the acting returning officer at the B do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at this election is as follows Paul Simon Ellison the conservative party 4,273 George Galloway Workers Party 11,586 [Applause] Michael David Howard reform UK 6,773 Andrew John Kelly liberal Democrats [Applause] 2,816 Martin David Savin Green Party [Applause] 1,212 Paul W labor and Cooperative party 13,27 [Applause] not I hereby declare that Paul war is duly [Music] elected well there you have it Paul War who was a political journalist originally of the standard and then the independent end um Niche knowledge used to sit right behind me when I was political Ed of ITV for 10 years he sat in the desk right behind me in the small room we shared with other political journalist he is now could have been you Tom no couldn’t have been um but um there you go I mean should we hear a little bit of what he’s got to say let’s have a let’s have a uh I’d like to thank George Galloway for his service I particularly want to pay tribute to if are we going to be allowed to speak is this a democracy are we going to be allowed to speak I particularly want to pay tribute to the late s Tony Lloyd whose decency and compassion are still an example to every one of us but of course my biggest thanks go to the people of Rochdale of littleb BR of w okay one way or another that declaration didn’t feel like it was going very well George Galloway um was not there very bad loser he stood for the Scottish parliament in I think 2011 in Glasgow and when it he sat in the car park for most of the count and then when it was clear he wasn’t getting elected he just drove off he didn’t ever come into it is a one way of dealing with losing I suppose I mean I said earlier that it looked as though they were going to win and they have and this is significant for labor I have to say in the last few days talking about activists on the ground they did think Galloway has s a very good chance of keeping the seat so they will be deeply relieved it’s very it’s very close and again reform have probably made an impact it is an interesting thing thing though isn’t it about our Parliament that sometimes you can be a big be a big significant figure on the outside and then when you get into Parliament you have much less uh impact me Jeremy Corbin has had almost no impact in Parliament since he stopped being labor leader and then having the labor whip George Galloway as far as I can see had no impact since he won won that Rochdale seat and back in the day when Alex sammon was in Parliament he had much less impact when he was a parliamentarian in a small S&P than he did uh subsequently in Scottish politics and you just wonder if niga frage does win clacton we we’ll see that later on is Nigel farage going to have the impact in Parliament in a small seat that he has as The Outsider Insurgent I don’t I mean the rules of the House of Commons are very cruel towards sing Independents or very small parties you know you just don’t get exp well because you know things like prime minister’s questions I mean the liberal Democrats have struggled under this in recent years once the SNP replaced them as the third party the S&P were always called at Prime Minister’s questions and Ed Davy had to bob up and down trying to to get the speaker attention and that will be true of Nigel farage he can he can win 20% of the vote or whatever he gets uh but if he you know if he’s only got a couple of MPS and by the way you know heartley pool has just gone by and Labour won that and that was a seat that people thought maybe reform would win so you might have a big disproportionate impact on the election you might as Ed say be a big Insurgent Force Outside Inside the House of Commons Nigro frage popping up and down maybe being once well speaking of the lib Dems and the Li we to hear his Noti that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows Ali Abdu Abdullah Workers Party 395 Jason chinery the official monster raving Looney party 230 thank you Dei Das the green party 39 Edward Jonathan Davey liberal Democrats [Applause] 2,870 Helen Margaret Edward the Conservative Party candidate 8,635 Mark David Fox reform UK 4,700 87 Eugene odame labor party 6,561 my name Unice Unice apologies Unice uh Ivon Tracy Kingston independent residents Justice for sub postmasters 1,177 therefore I give notice that Edward Jonathan Davy is duly elected as the member of Parliament for the Kingston and seron [Applause] constituency Ed Davey back in Kingston and seron no big surprise there AC we’ll come wait in a moment and hear what he’s got to say uh in his speech Colin can I just bring you in uh to talk about what change there is and isn’t here let’s just have a look at the change in the share of the vote yeah he’s down significant drop in turnout I’m told yes we’ve been seeing that all over the place tonight but Ed DAV down a bit um leaders of parties usually get a bit of a boost people like having leaders as their local members of parliament but Dave of course lost this SE and won it back okay sorry just interrupt you very rudely but let’s hear what he’s got to say seron and this great community over many years and I’m humbled that you’ve given me the chance to serve you again so let me start by saying a big thank you and thank you to Sarah and all the returning officer team and to all the staff and police who’ve worked so hard through the night you are the unsung heroes of our democracy it simply wouldn’t work without you and thank you to my fellow candidates for making this a campaign we can all be proud of I wish you all well in the future now I don’t know if you could tell but I’ve rather enjoyed this campaign but what I’ve Loved most hasn’t been the paddle boarding or the bungee jumping it’s been speaking to people here in Kingston and serton and across the United Kingdom about the challenges they face and their hopes for the future people who are working hard raising families caring for loved ones playing by the rules but finding it harder and harder to make ends meet people who’ve had to wait hours for an ambulance weeks to see a GP or months for Urgent cancer treatment people who are angry at the filthy sewage being pumped into their rivers lakes and onto their beaches people who feel let down and taken for granted granted and are desperate for change many of them have turned to the liberal Democrats in some cases for the first time at this election and we want to be your Champions we’ve listen to you and we’ve heard you loud and clear we put your concerns at the heart of our campaign number one amongst them fixing the Health and Care crisis so that you can see a doctor or find an NHS dentist when you need them and so your loved ones get the high quality care when you need it where you need it and that’s what liberal Democrat MPS will fight for every day in the next Parliament I’ve shared my own caring story during this campaign and I’ve been overwhelmed Med by the response especially from fellow carers people looking after their loved ones who’ve got in touch to say that’s my story too and I’m grateful that we’ve been able to bring caring Out of the Shadows in this campaign and we will continue to stand up for a society where we value care and properly support carers because we we cannot afford not to let me finish by thanking my wonderful family even though I hope they’re sound asleep Emily I love you and I could not have done this without you Ellie and John I love you so much and to our Fantastic Team thank you so much this would not have happened without you my election agent Simon Dr organizer Cosmo [Applause] Lupton and our whole incredible team there we are Ed D back in Kingston Lial demat Camp not sure there was terribly much to draw out of his speech a lot of thank you fair enough George you sat in cabinet with him what do you think of that Davey well he was um he was very serious um not terribly excited member of the cabinet and I you know if I had brought my party back from nothing you know or next to nothing and had this great win I think I would have been a bit more animated and excited and maybe there’s a reason why he didn’t do so many speeches and spent more time doing bungee jumps okay okay do you have a view on bungee jumping um well I was surprised T in the end or not I I mean I I that’s what I Conde I like part of me thinks it is really hard like if you’re the S SMP in Scotland you’re guaranteed media attention if you’re the Tory party or the labor party in England you guaranteed media retention if you’re the LI D it’s always hard right I don’t think there’s anything wrong with it I’m not criticizing them I just think it’s wrong to assume that because of all these stunts that’s the reason they’ve done well tonight they’ve done well because of the politics the stunts are neither here nor there and if they hadn’t done well we’d all be sitting here saying how silly that was and what a big mistake that was and instead we’re sitting here saying no it was a stro a genius in actual fact it got them attention but it’s not the reason for the showing tonight I like the stunts but I always kind of wanted him to take that into you know the stunts get your attention and what do you use the attention for and Rob says he did do that on social care um but you know on other things he um just sat on on the the fence do you think we should talk about the first Scottish result no why Kil Marik is in and um it was a 22% swing from um the S&P to labor which is like a is a big result yeah look I mean I think that would be the pattern you know maybe not quite to that scale but that would be the pattern across S&P labor seats tonight um that interestingly was a seat where uh labor had fallen into third place in the last uh election so it’s a big result for labor but it you know karuk is a seat that labor used to hold cons Dez Brown used to be the MP for Kar okay here we are um sorry to jump in but as you can see this is Nigel farage arriving at his seat in Clon I mean no real doubt that Nigel FR is going to win Colin or do you think there is D well you wouldn’t imagine so looking at some of these results I mean look at the for Mark franois who was we’re talking about earlier whose all intents and purposes are kind of a brex member of the conservative party didn’t save him from a 30% swing Plus in his very safe seat in Essex that I think was the eighth safest conservative seat in the country this is the ninth safest conservative SE in the country if you put the farage factor on top of it and apparently the labor candidate was pulled out and sent to campaign somewhere else halfway through the election anyway um that sounds like people throwing their hands up to me but we’re we’re still waiting to see Steven Flynn has held a seat in Aberdine North to the exchange between I think there’s also just you know if you think about how so we’ve seen Kia stama very controlled you know no media interviews which sunak hasn’t appeared at all tonight this is the of Farrar style of politics just a walking press conference the whole time you know no he’ll give any interview to anyone who he wants and uh it’s just sort of interesting I mean it’s a bit there there’s also Trump does that of course in America and it’s and Boris it’s a sort of rolling commentary and it’s not it’s a very you know it’s it’s worked very well obviously um action I hate to it was KY Blackman and reliably informed Steven Flynn has okay I was can say I was very nervous about contradict former first Minister about it was KY Blackman has held a seat in Aberdine North but I am reliably informed that Steven has also held a seat in Aberdine South okay now we have enough Real Results in from the early counts our apologists are telling me we are ready to move from the exit Pole to our first ITV News forast this is about analyzing and modeling information from Real Results to refine the exit poll initial projection as the night goes on so the first ITV News forecast shows an even bigger labor Landslide than the exit pole we are forecasting the conservatives are on 130 and labor with 414 up by four from the exit pole the libdems on 60 reform on 10 that’s down three from the exit pole and the S&P on 11 uh Colin you can explain a little more how we moved from exit Pole to forecast well when constit results come in we obviously look at the results themselves but then we think about the kinds of places that they’ve come from the sort of population who live there comparison with previous elections and then we model them against seats we haven’t heard from remember we’ve only heard from about 10% of constituencies even at this late hour in the morning or early hour in the morning but by modeling them statistically you hope to be able to make a judgment about what is like to happen through the rest of the night so this isn’t an awful long way from away from what the exit pole for in the initially said but this is now our own ITV News forecast bringing in the skills of the team we’ve got working upstairs okay can I just double check something Nicola are we sure step Flynn’s back in I I am reliably informed by people on the ground I may be misinformed but I’m being told by people on I haven’t got any information to the country but I but I are these kind of people who only tell you when they’re absolutely sure they’re right or are they people I hope so okay okay okay so there we are a labor lands ID that much hasn’t changed in the course of this evening it’s going up we’re uh very nearly at bigger than Blair majority unless I’m misreading that two more Tom do you think Tony Blair likes this result it’s a great Labor win but it’s one short of and and two two big libdem wins while we’ve been there in torbet which of course they’ve held before and chumford which they’ve been pretty close to in the past but I don’t think they have actually have held either okay well listen one change on the screen as you can see there is that there has been a little bit of a dip in what we’re predicting for reform we said 13 now we’re saying 10 even I can do the mass that that’s down at this stage in the evening Inka explain why what’s going on lots of chatter online at the moment about what is going on with reform UK what was going on with the exit pole these are our seats that have been declared so far they are coming in thick and fast 6970 I think now now the thing that everyone’s talking about is that some of the seats that were predicted for reform for example Barnsley North here on the left has actually gone to labor and if I highlight Barnsley South just below it it has actually gone to labor and also if we have a quick look at Harley Paul as well it has also gone to labor and Ashfield which has gone to reform UK didn’t come up as reform UK on the exit pole so I think one thing people are asking is what is going on with this and just to kind of explain it the exit poll gives a prediction for every seat as I’ve been saying and it gives a probability loads of them are too close to call and in fact when we first got the spreadsheets there were fewer than the 13 reform UK seats predicted on the list actually colored up as reform so how do they end up there well Colin will tell you more about the very complicated way in which they actually calculate all the different probabilities and come up with those seat numbers and bring it down but reform is particular difficult to try and judge it hasn’t been a party before it’s a small number and that’s one of the reasons this is happening does that mean that reform UK are not having a big impact tonight it does not so in fact I I don’t know what the updated number is but loads and loads and loads of these seats which have actually declared have reform in second place and I can show you the change in vote share across the seats that we’ve seen so far and you can see it there so look at that tor’s down 19.6 labor up 1.7 the reform vote up 13.4% and also an increase there for the green party so everyone’s talking about it and we’re just trying to understand it but that’s to explain to viewers why we think we are where we are at the moment so the reform you know there’s quite a possibility of further change is really what we’re saying in the reform seat number everything there’s a lot of things out there that are a bit too close to call I think there’s loads of seats that are too close to call and um it is very difficult in particular ular with reform to understand what’s happening but I think the one thing I do want to say is that they are clearly having an impact on the race more clearly one thing that some of the experts were talking to us about before was the fact that there are more and more seats now where you have three parties and the introduction of the third party is actually letting labor up through the middle in some of these seats and that’s one thing that we’re seeing happening okay we’re just looking at a live shot of Clapton there um Nigel farage you saw arriving just a little minute ago we were talking about the fact that he likes to have a rolling press conference wherever he went so he was sort of talking to journalists as he arrived um I think at this stage we’re probably assuming he has a very good chance of winning clackum but who knows we will see we are also about to go and have the Declaration at hbor where K dama will of course win but it will be presumably I would imagine he spent a long time working on his speech it’s the first time we’ll have heard him effectively as Victor um I guess Ed it’s a pretty important speech really even if it is going to be delivered in the middle of the night it’s the first moment we’ve heard from him as the prime minister to be it is but but he will want his big moment speech to be his speech in Downing Street tomorrow symbolically that’s what so so um yeah I mean it’s his overnight words but this will not be the speech of poetry and uh aspiration and vision because you know um I think you’ll hold that for tomorrow so it’s very difficult isn’t it um labor of one bols over back Dennis Skinner’s old seat we should we should mention and we are going to hurn now where they’re walking onto the stage I always think they’re difficult those speeches I you remember Blair’s last speeches he did one to Party Conference and one at his constituency in Sedgefield and they were both whether you like Blair or didn’t they were both I think you’d agree they were both brilliant speeches and they were both they were sort of different thank you and I thought that was a unique skill to deliver two really impactful speeches um anyway I’m rambling let’s go to hurn put myy being the acting returning officer at the election held in the hoben and St pankas constituency on the 4th of July 2024 do hereby give notice that the number of votes cast for each candidate in the election was as follows Nick the incredible flying brick the official the official monster raving Looney party 162 Charlie Clinton liberal Democrats 2,236 Andrew Joseph Feinstein 7,312 wise Islam independent 636 centel Kumar independent 4 Marine Malik the Conservative Party candidate 2,776 John Edmund poon UK independence party 75 David Roberts reform UK 2,371 Tom scrips socialist equality party 61 Bobby Elmo Smith 19 David Robert stansel Green Party [Music] 4,030 Kia starma labor party 18,8 84 the total the total number of V votes passed across hoben and some pankas constituency at the UK parliamentary election on the 4th of July 2024 was 38,6 two the total number of ballot papers rejected was 223 and they were rejected for the following reasons want of official Mark zero voting for more than one candidate 1 3 writing or Mark by which the voter can be identified to unmarked or void for uncertainty 148 therefore I hereby declare that KIA starma has been duly elected as the Member of Parliament for hobin and some panras constituency there we are kiss tomor is back in hurn but as we’ve just been uh scratching our heads about here we think his vote is 10,000 or so down more than 10,000 down let’s take his speech and then we’ll talk about it it is a huge privilege to be reelected to serve this constituency the incredible community of hoben and some Pancras my home where my kids have grown up where my wife was born and I have to thank Vic and my family more than anyone for their love and support support and for keeping me totally grounded thank you and thank you so much to the police and the returning officer for making sure every voice is heard and every vote is counted and thank you to Andy White a fantastic agent the campaign team the local party and all the volunteers who’ve worked so hard over the last six weeks and Beyond every door knocked every leaflet delivered every conversation had it makes a massive difference and lastly I’d like to pay tribute to my fellow candidates who put themselves forward for public service because in this room right here beats the heart of our democracy not in Westminster or whiteall but in town halls and community centers up and down the country in polling state and voting booths and most of all in the hands of the people who hold the power of the vote it all starts here and it starts with you change begins in this community with the people who came together to make life better like the Fantastic councelors who work so hard for our area service starts in this neighborhood the groups the faith communities the local organizations who serve week in week out and hope starts with that one kid from Summertown who dares to believe that the future belongs to her and with labor it will because I promise this whether you voted for me or not I I will serve every person in this constituency the mothers I sat with who’ve lost children to knife crime the pensioners who can’t get the doctor’s appointments they desperately need the local businesses who’ve struggled so hard to keep their head above water I will speak out for you have your back fight your corner every single day because tonight people here and around the country have spoken and they’re ready for change to end the politics of performance and return to Politics as public service the change begins right here because this is your democracy your community and your future you have voted it is now time for us to deliver thank you very much you for kiss Tama there giving his first speech as the prospective prime minister but managing to mislay 10,000 plus votes which I think requires some explanation uh who wants to go first I a bit about it I mean the the 7,000 votes uh went to a candidate called Andrew Feinstein who was uh campaigning largely on uh a platform of criticizing Labor’s approach to Gaza uh and you know within that part of uh North London that is uh a criticism that has resonated and we’re seeing this in other parts of the country uh as well so uh and he’s you know he’s an independent um so those are just 7,000 votes that more naturally would have gone to uh to Kia stabber and again it’s a pretty low turn up Colin I’ve got a couple of vote results from essics Tom which I think are quite interesting labor have gained harow and they’ve gained thurk as well both of which again seats they’ve had in the relatively recent past but what’s fascinating here is in both of those seats the conservative vote declined from in the 60s by half fully half of the conservative vote disappeared in both of those seats the um Robert halin stood down in harow but Jackie D price was trying to get reelected in thk when where have those votes gone well yeah they’ve gone to labor but only by 9 or 10% the 20 25% of the vote that the conservatives have lost seems to have gone to reform fing the patent following yeah and the brexit party didn’t stand there last time so this is exactly where we’re going to see the Reform Party have the biggest impact in leave areas um Hollow voted 66% to leave absolutely can I pick up on that a sec but I just want to see we we can see a reaction to Alex chalk losing his El as the Member of Parliament chelam [Applause] [Music] constituency well Alex chalk chelton was a liberal Democrat seat is a liberal Democrat seat again first cabinet minister serving cabinet minister to lose his seat not good news for he’s a friend of yours George fair to say Alex was my research assistant and then became Lord Chancellor as the way the world um he uh he’s a very nice guy he’s very much on the kind of liberal end of the conservative party would have been an important voice arguing against just heading down the kind of Reform rabbit hole but sadly you he’s lost I mean he just clung on last time so he’s always been highly highly vulnerable a whisker can I just say something about the kind of K sta you know declaration there so you know normally a party leader would add massively to their vote in their constituency so it speaks something of the kind of interesting tensions in the lab body that Corin eista is taking votes off him also I think kind of the challenge for K look it you know it’s a great challenge to have because he’s about to be a prime minister with a huge majority as you saw in that speech he is not electrifying in his communication you know he doesn’t send a tingle down your spine as you hear from the man is about to be the Prime Minister and that you know that’s a kind of big uh you know job of being a prime minister to be able to communicate and and I think it’s going to be one of the issues can he reach out can we we’re just going to leave that for a second because we’re going to uh Grant chap’ seat Declaration of results of poll election of a member of parliament for Willen hatchfield on Thursday the 4th of July 2024 I Annie Brewster being the returning officer at the above election do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows Aaron Jack Oliver reform UK 6,397 butcher Sarah the green party 2,900 186 Luen Andrew Allen labor party 19,8 [Applause] 77 Monroe John Peter liberal Democrats 3,100 17 shaps Grant the Conservative Party candidate 16, 78 the number of ballot papers rejected was as follows want of an official Mark zero voting for more than one candidate 46 writing or Mark by which voter could be identified zero unmarked or void for uncertainty 146 the total being 192 the electorate worth 75,200 the turnout was 64.8% and I do hereby declare that Alan Andrew Allan Luen is duly elected as a member of parliament for the Wellen Hatfield [Music] constituency gr chaps gone second cabinet minister it wasn’t even in the end really very close um before we really talk about anything else to do with that he did when I say cabinet minister he might have been all cabinet ministers since he held pretty much every cabinet Post in the course of his uh career let’s just have a look Colin can I would you mind just talking us through this I was going to look at the change in the share of the vote first because just see what’s happened that’s the overall surprising result in the context of the night frankly Tom again we see what we’ve been seeing the pattern the labor vote is up to a degree the reform vote is up by more and again as Jane was saying this is one of those seats where the brexit party would not have contested in 2019 I think Grant chapson his heart of hearts would have known that he was you know he was toast before the election was called I mean I think he did know that but he’s still a very significant uh defeat for the TR party because he was one of the most you know there aren’t many Tory ministers at the moment better known than Grant chaps I’ve just been told leester East has gone from conservative is a conservative game labor off labor I was wondering whether that might come in Lester East is a very interesting constituency which we could spend a seminar talking about really Keith Vaz the old labor MP was standing as a candidate Claudia web the old labor I’m going to stop you there Callin for one second because we have to go to shinger and woodgreen where Ian Duncan Smith may also be about to lose his seat discuss this is a very the chingford and Woodford green constituency declare that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows Chris BR green party 1,334 Ian Duncan Smith the Conservative Party candidate [Applause] 17,28 Josh Hadley liberal Democrats [Applause] 1,275 Paul ludery reform UK 3,653 fiza Shaheen independen [Applause] [Music] [Applause] 12445 Sharma tatler labor Party candidate 12524 [Applause] [Applause] therefore I give public notice that Ian Duncan Smith is duly elected as the Member of Parliament for chingford and Woodford green [Applause] constituency limey Ian Duncan Smith close friend of George Osborne uh if you can’t see me you’re probably not noticing the sarcasm in my voice George is smiling at me um has held on uh leading proponent of brexit over many years Euros skeptic as we used to once call Le of the conservative party leader of the conservative party uh quiet man turning up the volume um we will maybe we can hang on to hear what he’s got to say in a minute George you want to well he W here because the labor party deposed its candidate thought was too left wing she stood F Shah and she got 12,000 votes and she completely split the labor vote yeah be st’s ruthlessness exactly kind of not paying off they didn’t win the seat but maybe he’s glad she’s not people watching the program have strong views but I would tell you the starma team will say price worth paying that’s what they’ll say they’ll say we w a big majority we had to show change from the past let’s just hear what a little bit of what he’s got to say efficiency and also not a little humor during the course of the night uh can I also than thank all the accounting staff has it’s been a late night uh and You’ worked incredibly well and very very efficiently when we think of some of the other constituencies will take a lot longer to get their accounts done so my thanks to them and also to the police of course uh as they have been here long hours and have been very helpful during the course of the campaign I’d like to have a a few personal thanks my thanks of course first and foremost to my family for having put up with the last 30 plus years the I’ve been here and also importantly to all of those who’ve helped on this campaign on my campaign all the counselors and all the volunteers and I want to have a particular shout out for Mitchell Goldie who has led this campaign absolutely [Applause] brilliantly we’ve talked nothing but politics now for six weeks and walked many yards and I’m not going to therefore use this as an opportunity to make any political statements what I do want to say very simply I want to thank all the candidates who have stood for fighting what has I think been a pretty straightforward campaign uh and uh absolutely standing by their positions and their values which of course this is what this is all about but I also would like to say that um I pledge myself in this okay there we are Ian Duncan Smith uh is back we have a lot we’re just getting to the beginning I would say of rush hour at this point a lot going on we’re told that Penny Morant uh her some of her team think she’s lost her seat of Portsmouth North but that there may be a few hundred votes in it we’re about to get CLA uh I think any second now to see whether Nigel farage has made it back in obviously we’ve seen Ian Duncan Smith hold on there because the original labor candidate was deselected Ed just said that the team starma will consider that a price worth paying can I make one just very quick point at this point we’ve seen shaps go expecting Jullian Keegan to go see Alex chalk go the maximum number of cabinet ministers that have ever gone in a general election was in 97 when seven went I would be staggered if we don’t see more than seven cabinet ministers losing their seats tonight staggered and I think the chingford result and also the L re result which we were beginning to talk about shows the impact in some places of ethnicity now on general elections and clearly in one of those constituencies with quite a high Muslim popul and other places like that through the night we’ve been seeing the labor voters been suppressed because of that because because of the controversy over GS and what have you and in Lester East very complex situation in local elections the conservatives have been doing pretty well in leester in recent times because that’s a sort of it’s a Hindu factor it’s the most Hindu constituency in the country I think and there’s a Conservative candidate from that um religion and then there was Keith V the XMP as I said said Claudia Webb the XMP who was um had the whip withdrawn from her contesting the seat and they just sort of split the Le labor vote in half and because the conservatives have been doing so well in Leicester in campaigning in that particular ethnic Community they got enough of the if we V hadn’t stood labor probably would have won so may the only I’m being told that quite a few seats in Glasgow are going labor yeah which is not surprised this is presumably what you’ve heard I mean I I think the S&P will lose you know all of these S&P labor seats to labor tonight you I’m deeply disappointed and upset about that a lot of my good friends are losing their seats tonight and remember every MP who loses has got a team of Staff who are also losing their jobs so we should remember the the human impact of that but you know in Scotland we need to see the Shakedown of of the results and how the votes have have gone but you know yes there have been issues about the SNP and it would be wrong for me to say other wise but you the context of this election in Scotland was overwhelmingly kick the Tois get the Tois out and the S&P will have suffered from that tonight it is interesting though isn’t it because if you go back um a year a year and a half um when Boris Johnson was very unpopular when list trust was very unpopular I think people thought labor could get to 10 to 20 seats and they’re going to um do a lot better than that so it’s either because compared to a year ago the Tories are even more unpopular or that the events in the S&P since you departed um have caused a bigger problem for the S&P I mean which of those is it is the May a mix of the two I think the toies are more unpopular I think there has been a cumulative effect in terms of uh public views of the Tories and remember the toies start from a lower base in Scotland although they’ve been boosted a bit by unionist sentiment in in recent years and and of course you know events in the S&P the fact that the SNP is a government of such longevity and you know this is a a tough time to be in government so all of that is is playing in a perfect storm if you like for the SNP but you know there’s a real resilience as well to the SNP vote that I suspect we’ll see over the next couple of years and you know as long as we don’t learn the wrong lessons from what happens tonight I would still be I mean confident might be too strong a word right now tonight but I would still be optimistic that the S&P will be reelected to government in but it’s better for labor than I thought it’s worse it’s worse than you expected so throughout this camp p and I have been expecting what has unfolded tonight we’ve had private conversations over the last couple of days where I’ve I’ve been predicting that um so it’s not a surprise to me in the context of the campaign um I think the SNP fought a spirited campaign I’ve already you know talked about some of the things that I think there might be Reflections on um but yeah maybe six months ago we would have been hopeful of a better result than this but I think the context of this election has always meant that this was going to be a really tough night for us yeah I’ve course some news that Ed will want to hear which is Andrea Jenkins who is the Conservative candidate who gtim has lost and laber has retaken your old seat the new version of your old SE how do you feel about that edel than God Ed looks so thrilled the you know if you’re missing the closeup on his face George Dame Andrea Jenkins okay may I say that you George Osborne chose to have Dame Andrew Jenkins introduce his conference speech 2015 after she de defeated me and since then he’s become less of a fan of hers well I yeah I did actually um she did put a quote for me on her leaflets which obviously didn’t work at Le she was the only one she was the only one who asked so in all seriousness though CU Nichol was just saying like you know at the end of the day this is a great night if you’re winning and a terrible night if you’re losing I know you didn’t actually get to lose and be fired because you managed to walk away at the right time but Ed lost his seat George you effectively knew your political I lost many elections before I started winning though so you know I know what it feels like to lose but like what are you what are you feeling when you lose I me like you you your career you know both of you know instant career finish it’s funny I think I think for me actually there was a particular moment when it really hit home um because you know um I wasn’t expecting to lose and and then sat on my own in a premier room in a premier in room for 7 hours as the results unfolded and you rationalize it you think actually it’s majority government better to be out um worked out my speech um was whisked away um actually I said to my campaign team who are kind of all being very kind of despondent you know and you know you had a good time it was I said to I’ve not died we then went back to my agent’s house and his wife came out with a bottle of cherry and 20 glasses poured a Sherry um toast they all basically toasted my political demise but any was all funny okay whatever and then I find out that my son who was 13 had sat up all night with my father-in-law to see my result and finally saw it at 10 8 to see me lose my daughter had a GCSE in drama and she’d gone off to school and turned around and came back because she said unless I know this result I can’t do my exam and actually it was when I finally saw them later in the day and they were upset that was the thing which which was upsetting it’s finding out the people who care about you are so upset that was the first time I shed a tear other than that you know I was quite robust about it but people you love who are upset that’s really tough I mean the thing is it’s a bit like a one of those sort of car crashes where you get out of the car and you think you’re okay and actually there’s a huge shock and I think it takes people a couple years to get over because politics so all consuming and it’s often something you’ve spent years getting to the point where you you know get to top and so you know my advice often to people who go through similar things there’ll be a lot of people I’ve know who’ve lost their jobs tonight you know is just take a bit of time take a breath take a deep breath you know because people will be completely lost tomorrow morning is that the same even when you choose to leave obviously you’ve had a rough time since which we the transition out of high office is is really tough and I think George is right it’s often you know weeks even months later until you properly comprehend and and and start to process that and I think you know for cabinet ministers losing their seats tonight it will be horrible there will be no immediate Silver Lining but you know they’re spared I guess the sort of prospect of going to the the back benches in a in an opposition party so and you know that’s something I’ve experienced going from being first minister to being a back bencher I’ve chosen to stay in Parliament I love serving my constituents but the one foot in one foot out makes it a bit tougher sometimes so you know these are tough situations and fundamentally we’re talking about human beings here many of them not elected politicians but staffers and it’s tough okay here we go is lon North Jeremy Corin has he beaten the official labor candidate AAL liberal Democrats 1,661 that’s 1661 Jeremy Bernard Corbin commonly known as Jeremy Corbin independent 24 [Applause] 4,000 that’s 24,1 120 that’s 2 4120 Karen and Harry’s the concern ative Party candidate 1,950 1 195 Paul Dominic josling 32 32 Sheridan Virginia Kates commonly known as Sheridan Kates green party [Applause] 2,660 that’s 2660 PRL nagen labor party 16,8 [Applause] 73 that’s six 873 Martin John Nelson reform UK 1,710 that’s 17 11 10 total number of ballot papers rejected is as follows want of an official Mark zero voting for more candidates than the voter was entitled to 72 writing or Mark by which the but could be identified one being unmarked or holy void for uncertainty 116 turnout percentage of the poll 67.5 and I do hereby declare that the said Jeremy Corbin is duly elected to serve as a member of parliament of the Islington North constituency well there we are what a result in Islington North Kia starmer is not having it all his own way tonight let’s hear what Jeremy Corbin um well we’re going to cut away from Jeremy Corbin because I’m going to have to take you to clacton to see whether Nigel farage has made [Music] it okay I am now going to declare the results of the clacton constituency P member of of parliament I Ian Davidson being the acting returning officer at the election for a member of parliament for the clacton constituency on Thursday the 4th of July do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows benum Matthew liberal Democrats 2016 farage Nigel Paul reform UK 2,235 [Music] Jameson Craig climate party 48 Mack Tony independent 3177 osbin Natasha Green Party 1,935 AA napole Jovan labor party 7,448 Pat an estu tesos har AG party 33 pton Andrew ukip no to Illegal immigration 116 Watling Giles Francis the Conservative Party candidate 12,820 the number of ballot papers rejected was 111 I therefore do hereby declare that Nigel Paul farage is duly elected as the Member of Parliament for the clacton constituency congratulations that’s a massive result for Nigel farage uh not just a win but a very clear one we’re getting a lot of results all over the place at the moment KY badok is back no big surprise a safe seat there Steven Flynn is back we were talking about him the leader of the S SMP in the House of Commons and here is Nigel farage it’s been a well-run well fought and remarkably clean election battle I think we all agree on that and thank you for your services I promise that I will will do my absolute best as a member of parliament I had 20 years as an MEP but it’s not quite the same link or same responsibility with constituents I will do my absolute best to put Clon on the map I’ll do my best to bring more tourists I’ll do my best to try and bring some private investment it’s over 30 years ago that I fought my first parliamentary byelection I fought lots of them over the years and I’ve had big successes in European elections and perhaps less so under first pass the post which is a very demanding uh very very demanding problem for smaller parties I will say this it’s four weeks and three days since I decided to come out of retirement and throw my hat in the ring I think what reform UK has achieved in those just few short weeks is truly extraordinary given that we had no money no Branch structure virtually nothing across the country uh we are going to come second in in hundreds of constituencies how many seats we’re going to win I don’t know but to have done this in such a short space of time says something very fundamental is happening it’s not just disappointment with the conservative party there is a massive gap on the center right of British politics and my job is to fill it and that’s exactly what I’m going to do but it’s not just what we do in Parliament as a national party that matters it’s what we do out round the country getting 5,000 people in that room in Birmingham last week the energy the optimism the enthusiasm the belief that Westminster is just completely out of touch with ordinary people says to me that my plan is to build a mass national movement over the course of the next few years and hopefully big be big enough to challenge the general election properly in 2029 what is interesting is there’s no enthusiasm for labor there’s no enthusiasm for star whatsoever in fact about half of the vote is simply an anti-conservative vote this labor government will be in trouble very very quickly um we will now be targeting labor votes we’re coming for labor be in no doubt about that I want to thank the team that have helped me do this over the last few weeks my fellow candidates for behaving as impeccably as they have believe me folks this is just the first step of something that is going to stun all of you thank you very much okay thank you though um uh thank you very much indeed all kinds of results coming in here um Jonathan Ashworth key Shadow Cabinet member we think has lost his seat that’s it has lost his SE has lost his seat okay we just saw a seat in leester East which is a Hindu seat go to the conservatives Hindu Conservative candidate this is leester South a big Muslim seat this is a Muslim independent anti- Gaza War candidate has beaten Jonathan Ashworth who of course was be expect to be one of the big labor Fe figures in the next cabinet it feels like this is big not just for tonight but because it’s going to give an indication of the the the the problems that K starma may have as leader right this is very significant very bad news for Kia starma uh you know because it shows that his ambition of unifying the nation which is you know what he constantly says he wants to do he’s got this phrase country first party second at the moment it’s singularly failing there are big and important communities who would traditionally have supported the labor party who are rejecting labor particularly over kiss arm stance onaz I mean we have to say though that still the largest proportion of Muslims are supporting the labor party it’s it’s just that it’s but it’s it’s still a I mean John Ashworth would I mean under your exit projections Ashworth was supposed to win definitely we talked about um greens and small parties earlier label was worrying about Shan mood in Birmingham ladyhood than Dean in Bristol Central ranar alley as well in East London um Jonathan Ash though was not on was not on the radar of where the risks were I mean and it’s not something that I had heard um Talk of and you know I was saying earli with the chingford seat that K’s people I said to you that they will think it’s a price worth paying but actually it may be quite a big price which K is going to pay in this parament so the extension I tell you one thing which is quite interesting about this because I’ve obvious been talking to lab a lot about the actual mechanics of the campaign I suspect one of the reasons Ashworth has lost is because it wasn’t on their radar as as a seat that was at risk they only had limited resources and they plowed them into the seats they needed to take from the Tories in order to get over the line and I suspect what happened was they sort of thought it’s you know ashworth’s a done deal we don’t have to worry about it I mean I think look um I mean first of all I feel sorry for him because he’s he’s you run this campaign he’s a bit like Chris Patton you know 30 years ago helps Master mininder win and and loses himself uh I mean I think there are lots of clues of the problems labor are going to have despite the big majority the vote share is not going to be high it may be less than Corbin got even in 2019 and certainly less than 2017 and uh you know uh Jeremy Corbin’s election in Islington these problems we’re just seeing you know a sort of shape of things come and then I just thought you know there was Nigel frage saying general election 2029 he doesn’t want to talk about the 2024 election anymore 2029 I’m coming after Labor and I think that is going to be the story you know of British politics unless the conservative party can get it act together in the next few years and uh you know I just sort of felt H gosh we’re you know maybe we’re all going to be sitting around this table again uh in four or five years time and you know is it really going to be farage’s big push against labor and will the the left Coalition have started to fray in the way you’ve just had little tiny straws of tonight even on a night when labors won so okay just want I just want to mention uh because we haven’t talked about Northern isand at all yet tonight that Jeffrey Donaldson’s old seat of Lagan Valley a dup seat for uh has been lost now that’s Jeffrey Donaldson’s obviously not standing for the reasons you all know but uh that is clearly a blow to the D would have perhaps it uh that I will tell you as soon as as soon as I am informed but the alliance the alliance were in second place there and but it was quite a significant swing they needed but I think there’s another seat that the alliance might win belf East with their leader Namy long is standing and that’s the dup leader Gavin Robinson so this could be the dup thrown up in the air yet again and interesting Great Yarmouth I mean that was a labor Target um pre previously a labor seat yes um we’re calling that for reform so that is reform beating labor to a seat rather than and a little footnote there the reform candidate there’s a chap called rert Low who’s the chair of Southampton football club richy’s you know favorite affiliation we have not heard a word from RIS tonight completely disappeared no tweet no nothing no or really from any senior it’s I think to be fair you don’t tend to say anything as the Prime Minister until you go to your own count and unfortunately he’s got one of the most Rural and larger seats in the country so he’s it’s going to be quite late by the time they got all the ballot boxes together I mean what I noticed you know certainly on this show is that we’ve got you know we’ve got the people who are going to be the foreign secretary the chancellor the exer the health secretary coming on this show Deputy Prime Minister and apart from Robert Buckland who did The Honorable thing at the beginning come on you know the conservatives don’t want to talk you know okay Dian is back not a surprise could we just listen to Jeremy Corbin’s speech now let should we go back and have a listen to what he’s got to say win as an independent is hard yeah but he’s quite jery Corbin to do that was a positive one our campaign did not get into the gutter of Politics As is too often happening in this country ours is a positive campaign trying to bring hope to people who are in housing stress who are homeless who are going through mental health difficulties who are worried about their future and the political system has to produce answers to those concerns and those worries demonizing refugees demonizing people from other countries won’t solve those problems the only way we solve the problems of our community is by uniting our communities and our campaign was utterly determined to bring that degree of unity to it and so this result is to me a resounding message from the people of Islington North that they want something different they want something better and in the new government that’s coming in they’re looking for an end to things like the two child benefit policy cap they’re looking looking for regulation of the private rented sector and if I may say so they’re also looking for a government that on the world stage will search for peace not war and not allow the terrible conditions to go on that are happening in Gaza at the present time so this was a Grassroots campaign a Grassroots campaign that isn’t going to disappear isn’t going to go away it’s brought together people from all world walks of life from all ethnic communities from all languages and all ages in a determination to see get something better in our society my job in Parliament will be as it’s always been to deal with the individual problems that many of our people face but to speak up to speak up where necessary in criticism in order to bring about the social changes that this country needs and my constituency needs and I’m humbled and proud and very grateful to the people of Islington North who I’ve represented for so long and have taught me so much I owe my life and my learning and my abilities entirely to the people of isington North this Victory is a dedication to them and steadfastness in the face of opposition steadfastness in the face of abuse we have shown what Kinder gentler more sensible more inclusive politics can bring about I couldn’t be more proud of my constituency than I am tonight I’m proud of our team that brought this result thank you very much Islington North for the result that we’ve achieved tonight thank you quite quite emotional Jeremy Corbin uh I think at the end there perhaps no surprise given that’s big victory for him against the odds one might say um Ed does the party have no choice at some point but to welcome him back in or hell would freeze over before K starm will ever even contate such thing well um so far Jeremy Corbin has not been willing to do what what Kia starma wanted him to do in order to come back in and I don’t think um I don’t think Kia starma is the kind of guy who’s minded to give much ground on this issue so um my instinct is a long standoff but it will become increasingly painful standoff I’m not sure do you do you really think um it’s going to be painful for star or sort it be a l a lone critical voice but he can’t really make he common cause with others though weren he inside the part I mean how many I mean but how many actually in Parliament I should just point out one thing though he did this thing saying it was a holy positive campaign actually his campaign was mostly about highlighting how the labor candidate made a lot of money out of private healthcare uh and so I wouldn’t say that was hugely positive in terms of an agenda for Britain but there we you think also this Gaza you know Gaza Israel is going to be the first big policy issue that hits like tomorrow you know I mean you’ve got Joe Biden trying to negotiate a peace deal in Israel sorry we’re we’re in Milton Chief web simones officer for the Karan constituency declared that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows Beasley William Dominic pworth cryy Wales green party en Mill Triant a 1,371 Becket Nicholas Paul Welsh liberal Democrats democrati rra cry inil ped Ain 1,400 61 Cole Nancy Ellen women’s equality party dant o d 282 Davis Celia Anne plight cry the party of Wales pum me Pim Kant akain 15,520 Evans David Mark Workers Party of Britain dant IND 216 Hart Simon Anthony Kate wad kemre Welsh conservatives o Me O A Pimp 8,825 hton Bernard reform UK qu Mill now C AED de a feda 6,944 O’Neal Martha an harad Welsh labor saf C de Mill now at o pimp 10,985 Davis [Applause] therefore I give public notice that David Celia is duly elected as okay the chief whip Simon Hart is out uh pled C’s second seat in Wales we’ve also just been told that the greens have won a seat in Bristol Bristol Central uh thangam deer is out out uh the shadow culture secretary Dena The Joint green leader is in Colin that’s a pretty big development the greens are targeting four seats in this election I think this is the first one we’ve actually heard from and they won Bristol Central I suspect probably quite handily full of young people some controversy I think surrounding than and Deon a with you between her and some of some of her constituents it’s a quite a quite a redrawn seat but she had a very very safe majority at the last election but other things have been going on Tom as well there one thing I’ve been wanted to say all night um I got a list of seats here that have been conservative since ever and we’ve just heard that one has gone labor has been conservative since 1885 at Baron Edmunds where I believe one of rishy sunx spads was lately posted in the will Tanner was staff lately flown into that seat and it seems that something else it’s really hard to talk about for Jane orai as as kind of analysts is that people do not like being taken for granted and that seems to be increasingly what we’re beginning to see in some of these results where candidates whove got no association the the Richard Holdens the the will Tanners in some cases you know where you try to get rid of um you know the person in the labor candidate in in chenford and and so have you people are taking notice of those things within their own constituencies and you’re right I mean there was enormous anger there when wi Tanner was placed there was no contest and local Tories were Furious Ian can I ask our you know Poland gurus it feels to me like you know there’s so much volatility in this election there’s unbelievable swings happening you know electoral records being broken um but all sorts of things happening that you would never have sort you don’t get the uniform labor swing you get labor MPS losing you get uh you know members of The Shadow Capen at losing even on the night when they have this historic win and you’ve got to Fe and you’ve got you know the labor leaders vote in his own constituency going down on the day he becomes the prime minister of a huge majority it just feels unbelievably volatile unbelievably uncertain and if you know it’s look let’s be absolutely clear as we’ve been right from the start an amazing labor achievement but it feels on quite unstable ground this something that we’ve seen growing over years right so the the growth in people switching between parties has been a trend over time I guess the exceptions to this rule really were 2017 and 2019 where switching dropped a bit brexit kind of unified people between the behind the two largest parties those were the kind of the exceptional elections and in a sense we’re going a little bit back to how we were in 2015 Jane I’m just going to come in because we are going to go chicher to see Jillian Keegan I think probably losing her seat high Sheriff of West Sussex being the returning officer at the election of a member of parliament for the Chichester constituency do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows Brown Fuller Jessica sha Louise liberal Democrats 2,540 colling Thomas labor party [Applause] 3,175 do Santos Theresa reform UK 7,859 Emerson Andrew independent 109 90 Keegan Jillian the Conservative Party candidate 1,368 young Timothy Peter John Green Party 1,815 the number of ballot papers rejected was as follows voting for more candidates than voter was entitled to 23 writing or Mark by which voter could be identified six being unmarked or Jillian Keegan not out by a bit that is a pretty overwhelming result there was a lot of discussion that chicher would be pretty close that even in a big swing election that she would lose but you know and that’s that’s a big loss again somewhere where there’s been some local government activity by the lib Dems which is often what they do to build up their performances we’ve also heard that wokingham John redwood’s old seat has gone to the lib Dems but even for me an interesting thing about the chst result if you wander down to the English Channel in Jillian Keegan X constituencies and gaze out South across the water you will find the aisle of white and labor labor have just gained a seat on the aisle of white CH what we’re seeing here is this anti-conservative vote so we’re seeing a reform increase um because reform didn’t stand there last time but we’re also seeing the green and the labor vote share go down so that’s very likely to be tactical voting to get the liberal Democrats in first place to Ala conservative um the green vote of course you know being very very slightly down there because of tactical voting doesn’t negate the fact that that green victory in Bristol is a is a really big deal for the greens who have been trying to get that additional seat for a really long time and their vote share is very likely substantially up on what it was last time um so the greens were just under 3% nationally last time probably double that this time which in the big scheme of things six doesn’t sound like a lot but a double in your vote share and having an influence right across the board too I mean just worth pointing out partly because you were talking to the reform party’s Deputy leader earlier he didn’t win in suffk west but it’s a rare example of the tor’s being able to bring in some new blood Nick Timothy uh who was Theresa May’s joint Chief of Staff did win there I mean his vote share absolutely collapsed and reform did pretty well there but he just scraped he just scraped home um I think he will you know be quite a big figure in the tour party despite having only just arrived just because they’re running out of of you know substantial players okay Ella bravman is back no surprise in faram and Jillian Keegan is on her feet another cabinet minister down let’s hear what she’s got to say about it well good morning and uh thank you to Diane the returning officer or non- returning officer in my case um the election staff the police and security staff for all of their efforts to ensure a fair and safe election and also to the other candidates as well uh who played their part in that it’s not the outcome we wanted but clearly the people have spoken across the country and here in chitester I admire anybody who puts themselves forward to stand for Parliament but we all understand how the system works albeit it does appear more volatile than ever I want to place on record my thanks to my amazing team who have worked so hard for the people here in chitester in the whole constituency thank you you are amazing and also my my agent Susan and for all those who have supported me I wish everybody in chiester and in our country the very best for the future and thank you for giving me the opportunity to serve you for the past seven years this year will’ll mark my 40th year of working full-time and I can honestly say I’ve loved every minute of serving the people of chitester I’ve given it my all and I’ve really enjoyed it even the difficult bits like tonight I wish my successor the very best as the new MP for chitester and I want to thank you all Hey Jillian Keegan giving her farewell speech there but let’s uh there’s been an awful lot going on for the last half hour or so so let’s uh ask Anushka to make sense of it all well let’s start Tom by just having a look at the Battle Board because it is now quite full you can see red in the right direction for labor largely if we just zoom in on that majority Point here you can see that a lot of these seats you can see Grant shaps there to the left you can see a Glasgow seat above it hexen which I mentioned earlier has not been um ever anything other than Tori and even Tony Blair didn’t win it and across on the other side can you see folston down there in the bottom corner folston is quite an interesting um seat type of seat where they only had one seat in Kent before oh yeah there you go that only one um when in now I’m gonna have to ask you to pause for a moment because we’re going to basle them I Paul ader been the acting returning officer at the above election do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows bitman Christopher David British Democrats 373 con Steven reform UK 11,354 gosok Stewart the green party 2,123 Harrison Alexander James labor party 12885 Holden Richard John the Conservative Party candidate 12,9 105 Murray David trade unionist and socialist Coalition 192 sainsbury Edward chrishan liberal Democrats 2,292 the number of ballot papers rejected was 176 the turnout was 57.2 6% and I do hereby declare that Holden Richard Johan is Julia elected well he is back but by 20 votes how about that that is close close close Colin can I ask for your comment on oh no hold on a sec sorry can I S you for a second we’re going to Boston votes recorded for each candidate as follows Dickerson David English Democrats Deport all illegal immigrants 518 forbert Alexandra labor party 7,200 7, 7,629 Gilbert Michael William blue Revolution for people not parties 397 roid Richard Gordon liberal Democrats 1,375 [Applause] more Christopher Michael the green party 1, 156 Ty Richard reform UK [Applause] [Music] 15,520 Warman Matthew Robert the Conservative Party candidate 13,510 [Applause] the number of ballot papers rejected was as follows unmarked or void for uncertainty 121 voting for more candidates than entitled to seven I hereby declare that Richard Ty is duly elected Member of Parliament for the Boston and skes constituency so there we are Richard TI is in that is reform’s fourth seat of the evening should we hear what he’s got to say for a few moments the proudest day of my life and I want to pay tribute to all of these constituents of Boston and skes that I’m now delighted to serve and represent and I will do this to the very best of my ability I want to thank the returning officer All His Brilliant staff everybody for ensuring this Democratic process happened successfully safely and also to thank the police this really is quite extraordinary what we’ve achieved from just three years ago as reform UK no one had heard of us we were 0% in the polls we had no money in the bank account and I was sneered at and mocked by so many just three years later across the whole of England Scotland and Wales millions and millions and millions of people have today voted for reform UK we’re winning seats we’re coming okay we’re leaving Richard Tyson Boston a big win for him a big win for his party because as you can see this is our first site of the Prime Minister this this morning I guess we are this morning uh by this stage Rishi sunak just disappearing inside his count he did tell some of those close to him he feared losing his count I think on the pattern of the night so far that feels extraordinarily unlikely um but we have had some surprises so who knows maybe that will be another Anushka let’s just finish where we were and then we’ll pick up with the various results uh that have come through well I showed you the Battle Ground board and obviously labor is having a very good night and doing well and this is the kind of majority area they are well over it they are on track for that landslide that we’ve been talking about but they have had a couple of difficult results two people who were you know Shadow cabinet members um thangam deire in Bristol and also jonath Jonathan Ashworth in Leicester where there was a very high Muslim population and interestingly I spoke to contacts at Labor HQ they were not expecting Jonathan Ashworth to lose in fact they had 12 Muslim seats which I can when I say Muslim seats High Muslim population seats which I understand they were throwing more resource into because there were tell 12 seats where they were very genuinely worried that they could actually lose in some of them they included um it’s just going to come up in a minute they included seats like um Birmingham ladywood where Shabana mmud is fighting for seats in Tower hamlets seats in other parts of the country not not Leicester South in fact and hopefully if I can just pull it up for you I can just show you what’s happening here okay we might not be able to pull this up but basically what they said to me was they had to throw resource into these seats there is one of them that they’re particularly worried about tonight it’s not coming yet it’s D B but the same thing seems to have happened in Leicester South so that is a worry whilst in other parts of the country obviously in the red wall and even more so in Scotland the labor share has been going up by a higher amount this is an issue that’s likely to be exacerbated as soon as they’re in government right because it’s one thing taking a stance on a very very um cont you know what’s the right word middle of the night controversial divisive conflict in opposition but when you’re doing it in government and you’ve got real government policy decide it’s 10 times harder well I think two things have happened right I think on the one hand labor have deliberately had a policy where they’ve moved towards the center and in doing so probably lost voters in some of their safer seats but specifically and here are actually those seats with very high Muslim um voters share and the particular ones I’ve picked out here that I know labor were throwing more money into you know what I went around the country and I spoke to people about these I went to these type of seats they were the seats that k D did not visit very deliberately because people were angry about his position on Gaza but what I found was it was not just about Gaza in away I thought this was like a new red wall these are voters who have voted labor for decades and continued to vote labor they voted labor locally and they voted labor nationally and they were very badly hit by austerity and you know what when I was out in Birmingham talking to Muslim voters they were as likely to say we want the two child benefit cap to be lifted as were to say we’re really unhappy with Labour’s position on Gaza and the Labour party was worried about these voters a year before October the 7th so it’s just more complicated and quite interesting now it is my understanding that they’re quite confident that they are going to hold most of these seats but duesbury is the one that right now they’re quite worried about okay we are joined by Jacob reog from his constituency in Northeast somet good evening to you good evening or good morning I guess it probably is good morning probably not a very good morning for you in your party you could say that I think the conservative party has had better mornings uh in its long and distinguished history why what would you put this uh bad possibly historically terrible result down to yes I I I think this is an occasion when you can use words like terrible in terms of the conservative party result uh without um hyperbole uh I think it’s because we abandoned our core voors and our core voter have gone off to reform and that we have no divine right to a particular set of Voters we need to appeal to them aresh in every general election we appealed to them in 2019 and then by 2024 they fell let down and that we hadn’t delivered on key conservative pledges isn’t there an argument to say the absolute polar opposite is true which is that you won elections you have historically won elections in recent times when you’ve been on the center ground and you’ve lost them when you’ve been seen to drift too far to the right which is arguably where people would say you are now well I’d suggest you put that point although you can’t really because he’s no long with us to Margaret thater she clearly didn’t win from the centerr actually even in 1970 Ted Heath didn’t win from the center ground he won on sson man so 1970 1979 83 and 87 we won on appealing to fundamental conservative principles by being in favor of free enterprise low taxes home ownership uh controlling migration and in those circumstances we got large majorities if we’re wishy-washy lib Dam they was very interested what happens now to the Tory party that’s a very interesting question I mean that uh it depends what the final number of mpes will be um assume we Remain the official opposition which seems likely from the exit pole uh we rebuild the Tory part has been very good at rebuilding itself historically from difficult uh elections and then we have to work out what we stand for who are we trying to appeal to and expressing our values that will encourage voters to come back to us and those particularly who’ve gone to reform not very long ago a couple of weeks ago the broadcaster and former newspaper editor Andrew Neil himself a supporter of brexit uh basically said that brexit had destroyed the Tory party do you think that’s a fair assessment I think there have been divisions within the Tory party because of Europe dating back to 1972 and the European communities act I think that the discussion over Europe has had a profound effect and I think part of the problem of the government of 2019 to 24 is that there are some members of the conservative party who were still unreconciled to uh brexit I think that was certainly a problem and it was certainly a problem in terms of dealing uh with the immigration problem because those who had never wanted to leave the European Union weren’t keen on us leaving the ECR which is almost certainly a necessary step to deal with migration okay Jas mark thank you very much indeed appreciate you taking the time to join us my pleasure and we are going to go to Portsmouth North to see whether Penny Morant is going to survive when I said we were going to Portsmouth North we were going to Portsmouth North but we weren’t uh it looks like they are holding on for something no I think here we go Penny Mor we’re told it’s very close um possibly only a few hundred votes but let’s see [Applause] you don’t know here we go I think we are finally okay we’re going to move to the Declaration on of results for ports for thoughts constituency and I would like to invite the Lord mayor of Portsmouth to declare the [Music] results I councelor Jason vac returning officer for the Portsmouth North constituency hereby declare that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows Simon James DOD liberal Democrat 3,31 Amanda Louise Martin labor party [Applause] 14,495 Penelope Mary commonly known as Penny M the Conservative Party candidate 13,715 Duncan Stuart Robinson the green party 1,851 Melvin Stuart Todd reform UK 8,51 I therefore give public notice that Amanda Louise Martin is duly elected as a member of parliament for the Portsmouth North constituency Penny Mund is out let’s wait and see what she’s got to say about it here but it was pretty close in the end let’s just have a look Colin can you just talk us through the change in the share of the vote here if I bring it up well again rather what we’ve been seeing all night long I think getting rather you know Bor saying this to you all that the conservative vot is down by almost a half from 61% down to just 30 3% labors vote up a little bit 8% but enough to see them through the top and reform not having stood here as brexit in 2019 as James been reminding us all night long quite rightly get 20% of the vote and Penny Morton can claim I think there some justification they have cost her and not much tactical voting there on the lib Dems or the greens which you would have expected to help labor a bit so it really is a large story about reform Johnny Mercer is also out in Plymouth more view the Minister um so this is not turning out for very to be a at all that again that was one of those ex labor seats as indeed was Portsmouth North and Sid rapson I think was the MP many years ago there David Owen was the and and and in Plymouth yeah so Sid rapson in Portsmouth David Owen in Plymouth what what does it mean Penny Moran not being around I mean she she was you know would we have called her would you have called her as sort of Centrist the Centrist candidate or well I think the you know think about Penny what um has been that it’s been quite hard to Pinner down ideologically but that’s that’s also a source of strength if you’re trying to lead a party so you you know you can attract votes from across the piece uh she’d built up a strong personal reputation as being you know someone who knew her own mind was connected to the Armed Forces most famously for anyone watching this was the person who carried the sword for hours at the coronation um and I you know I I think if you sort of forced me to Guess Who was going to win a Tory leadership contest I would have said her actually over KY bad knck although K bad knock’s the sort of regarded as the favorite um because she could kind of draw votes from everywhere and she seems to be you know was had sort of popular appeal Al though obviously not enough in in her own seat pouth and so her going and politics is a brutal business even on a night like this there’ll be some Tories who were thinking about the leadership contest thinking good one of my James kly sort of occupies the same position as her so he I don’t think he’ll be shedding Too Many Tears back in 2022 I think that um Penny Moran was the P was the candidate labor feared most more than vishy suak more than uh Liz trust and if you remember she was neck and neck with L trust there’s a big campaign against her from within conservative party I remember Dominic Lawson in particular really kind of going for her in his colag columns and she just failed to meet it it was partly because she was a good performer in the sen not hugely defined there were conservatives who doubted whether she would come through but I think K starmore will think uh good that Penny is the one he would not want to fight Nichol I was asking you all just a second ago off camera but I’ll ask you now on camera do you do you always know whether you won or loss when you go out there no I I mean you know in really really close results it will be very very close to the wire before you’re you know for sure uh going into an election like this I I I guess most of these cabinet ministers in their gut would have known with maybe one or two exceptions but I mean but I mean when you’re on the stage you know that you know you know only right so when you’re standing on the stage AB a little from the returning officer just before and five minutes maximum before that’s when you can call for the recount yeah yeah sorry you about to say you no no that I was about to agree with everyone but of course sometimes it’s hard to know when you look you know if you put on a big smile is that because you’re do you remember when the milleran brothers came out in that famous leadership contest and everyone said oh David’s won and I said I I I’m telling you from the look on his face I’m guaranteed that he’s lost and I I looked at Ed and Ed just looked so shocked that he’d won yeah in those pictures there was a moment there we were all saying hash she won hash she not won and then the labor candidate bounces onto the stage with the you think okay you think okay that’s okay let’s go and speak to carena the leader of the greens who’s had a very good night down there in Bristol uh congratulations on winning your seed I guess you must be over the moon because you’ve worked very very hard on that yes and I’m so so grateful to everyone who has voted green both here in Bristol Central and across the country I’ve got my finger in my ear because we’ve just had the results from the neighboring Bristol East constituency where we’ve got a a very respectable second place and I’m expecting to see further positive results for the greens across the country as the night rolls on I think this is frankly because the the greens were the only party offering a policy platform of of real change and real hope at this election voters have responded to that and I’m so so grateful for everyone who has trusted us with their vote presumably do you have any hopes of other seat gains or do you think you’ve reached about your limit uh well as you’ll probably be aware we have been very open about the level of our ambition in this election we stood um uh a record number of parliamentary candidates across the country 574 more than the conservatives even but we really targeted our campaigning efforts on four constituencies that we think we have a good chance of winning so I’ll be watching those very closely tonight to see how we do so Brighton Pavilion where sha Barry is hoping to take over from Caroline Lucas and two rural constituencies wavy Valley and North herfer there has been I think at least a couple of polls predicting a green win in each of those constituencies um but of course you never put too much uh weight on just one polls and and and the poll that really matters is the one that happened yesterday so I’ll be watching those very eagerly but we’ve already had a good number of really great second place results I think it’s looking almost certain that we’ve got a record breaking vote share across the country um and however many green MPS the people of Britain decide to send to Westminster we will be offering those th those that positive Vision we’ll be holding the incoming labor government to account working with them on areas we agree but not being afraid to speak up and push them to be bolder where needed I’m sure you’ve been concentrating on your own seat but you must also have followed the national picture there’s obviously a huge result for labor obviously a bad result for the Tories obviously a relatively good night for reform coming out of nowhere but quite a lot of you know results that are surprising in the mix what do you make of it all yeah and quite a lot of discussion about uh turnout and vote share I know we we obviously don’t have the exact numbers yet but I’ve seen some discussion that labor might actually have a smaller vote share than they have in some previous elections despite having an absolute landslide in the number of seats and I think that just goes to show how broken our electoral system is and I think it’s a sign of what I’ve been hearing on the doorsteps in Bristol Central that people were voting for labor in some cases because they weren’t the Tories rather than because they were particular excited by the labor party’s offering um there was some polling I think it was UB a couple of days ago that showed that only 5% of people were voting labor because they agreed with their policies now we know in the greens people say to us all the time that they agree with our policies um and if they did have hesitation over whether to vote green it was because they thought that we couldn’t get in but I think we’ve demonstrated over the last 5 years of local elections and now in this general election that if you want more greens in Westminster you can vote green and increasingly you will get more greens elected kadia thank you very much indeed for joining us well this seems like a good moment more generally to go to Nina in The Newsroom for a summary of where we are on this history making night welcome back to The Newsroom where we’re bringing you tonight’s headlines so far the man of the moments kiss starma the man who is set to be the next prime minister has won his seat in London ITV News is now forecasting that his party will win a 178 seat majority one shy of Tony Blair’s 1997 victory tonight people here and around the country have spoken and they’re ready for change to end the politics of performance a return to Politics as public service the change begins right here because this is your democracy the woman of the moment Sak’s Shadow chancellor has told ITV News the country has huge potential Rachel Reeves could soon become the first female Chancellor the country has ever had you ask am I ready I am ready for that challenge Kia is ready we have put together plans to bring stability back to our economy to bring business investment back to Britain Grant chaps the defense secretary has lost to labor in well in Hatfield one of several Tory cabinet ministers to lose their seats tonight including Penny Morant and Alex chalk it was eighth Time Lucky for Nigel farage who has been elected as an MP for the first time the reform leader became the second reform candidate to win after Lee Anderson won the first of the night Mr farage only announced he was standing four weeks ago James my plan is to build a mass national movement over the course of the next few years and hopefully big be big enough to challenge the general election properly in 2029 the former labor leader Jeremy Corbin has kept his seat standing as an independent in Islington let’s focus in now on one UK Nation Wales Paul how’s it shaping up well Wales is a really interesting exception to the rule a nation where labor are the incumbent they’ve been in government all the way through Devolution but they’re not being punished for it in this election so take a look at the latest tally here from Wales labor on 19 clearly out uh way ahead here the conservatives we expect actually to to be wiped out in Wales at this election but take a a deeper look at some of the shares and you start to see a more interesting a more nuanced picture so this is uh ponter PR uh and look at Labor’s uh share here 41% very healthy but reform UK on almost 20% of the votes here then ply Cy on 133% conservatives in fourth so this does suggest that these seats much like the red wall in England uh and they share many of the same characteristics actually as the red wall in England are looking to reform UK now uh as uh the official opposition let’s talk to ree who’s in our Wales hub for us uh this morning good morning to you ree baradar do you think then obviously a good result for labor but they will have to have one eye on reform UK absolutely and also pled cry but let’s talk about reform UK first as you mentioned out of the uh 21 of the 32 seats in Wales have now declared and reform have come second place in 10 of those that will be very worrying for labor one of them cessi a very safe labor seat for more than 100 years they came within just a 1 and a half th000 votes and then you got P cry as well Anis mour and KY bin two labor plied marginals that and kuron in particular labor through the kitchen Sinker it as a reminder Kama was there on the last day of the campaign and pled W it comfortably as a reminder at the Senor elections in 2026 there will be a new EXP expanded saying they have 96 seats and it will be fully proportional with this kind of share of the vote that the form are getting we could have a quarter of the SED of the form uh members in 2026 so certainly some cause for thought for the Welsh lebor party tonight all right ree think we can hear some more declarations taking place in the background there so I’ll let you get back to monitoring those counts thanks very much sale’s a fascinating fascinating picture and as ree said could be one of the first places that reform make a really significant breakthrough aside from this UK parliamentary breakthrough that they’ve made this evening Paul thank you very much there is a huge number of seats expected to declare in the next hour or so in around 8 minutes time at 4:30 the Declaration in donc cter North for the shadow climate change secretary Ed millerand is expected and we just heard from him we could also get the result from Jacob Reese mogs count in North East Somerset but for now that’s all from us Nina thank you very much indeed I’ve just been told that one IET Cooper is back don’t know who I should ask about that well you know one would be good accidental but two would be catastrophic so okay okay enough said we don’t need to say any more about that um Robert I think I’m going to ask Colin and Jane to up some in a minute about where they think we are in this uh fast moving night you were mentioning something that you thought it conceivable that Liz Trust might be in trouble yes so I’m getting reports from the count been in touch with somebody there who is saying that the piles for labor and reform are bigger than her pile now there’s still a bit of time to go but you know on the ground they are talking about a realistic possibility that Liz truss will lose and literally just down the road from her suffk seat uh is her great friend a best friend in politics uh um uh teres Coffey who was her Deputy Prime Minister for those short weeks in uh when she was prime minister and she has lost she’s lost to Labor uh so uh the electorate appear to be punishing those closely associated with L truss’s you know turbulent few weeks in office George this would be the ultimate humiliation wouldn’t it being being a prime minister for whatever it was 45 days uh being thrown out by your own constituents at the end of it all is a humiliation I mean this is a very very safe conservative seat in East Anglia uh so it will be a spectacular result but you know there will be a load of Tory xmp’s tonight who blame Liz truss more than anyone else for this result because that was the moment when the conservative party party lost its claim to economic credibility that was the moment when labor was able to say this government’s now costing you on your mortgage more than it would other you know would otherwise be the case and you know there’s a debate about whether R could ever have pulled it back from that point I mean he he of course came in as the you know extraordinary he just lost to L trust and then he you know and was planning you know was actually looking for jobs and then suddenly uh a few weeks later he he becomes the Prime Minister um so you know is that the kind of black Wednesday moment the winter of discontent moment sometimes you get these moments in politics which parties not only don’t recover from at the next election but sometimes can hang over them for several elections afterwards we are in pency held on Thursday 4th of July 2024 do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows IET Cooper labor party 17,897 [Applause] party 139 Jamie Luke needle liberal Democrats 1,213 John Robert Thomas reform UK [Applause] 10,459 olle Watkins green party 1,651 Laura welen the Conservative partyy candidate 5,46 the number of ballot papers rejected was 123 and I do hereby declare that the said AET Cooper is duly elected for the pontif FR Castleford and nottingley [Applause] constituency okay Vette Cooper is back uh very good news in the balls Cooper household and let’s we’re let’s just hear for a few moments what thank you thank you very much say I wanted to just thank everyone who has taken part in this election thank you most of all to the people of pontif Castleford nottingley and tofs for putting your trust in labor and for putting your trust in me me once more it is the greatest of honors to represent our towns and our communities our incredibly hardworking communities through thick and thin here in our towns and right across the country we have seen tonight an overwhelming vote for change after 14 years of conservative government it is an end to the chaos to the failure but also a historic result for labor a result which feels more remarkable for the journey that we have come on when we think back to a dark rainy day in December for and a half years ago and that journey is Testament to K’s leadership to the way that he has changed our party so that our party can once again serve our country and be ready to change our country a party that has worked hard to earn back support to put our party back in the service of working people fighting for the things that people in our towns care about our NHS the stability and the security that families need the need to get police back on the streets our border security the future of our children and our young people so many things we know okay Cooper back um uh and convincingly I’ve just been asked to mention that when you’re watching the figures go through on the bottom of your screen about there um you’ll notice that when we get to change in the share of the vote it’s registering zero um which clearly isn’t right and there’s a little glitch in our system which we’re working hard to fix now Jeremy coring uh joins me from Islington North the MP once again um for isling to North congratulations to you Mr Corbin I’m not I’m sure you’re very pleased I’m not sure the labor leader necessarily will be well I was elected with a good majority with 24,000 votes we’re very proud of the result we achieved it was a campaign we built from nothing in only a few weeks and we’ve got this result why because we were inclusive because we were positive because we were hopeful and we were clear that there has to be fundamental changes in our society by a different economic model and I’m very proud of that result we didn’t get into the gutter we didn’t blame minorities we stood up for people and the response of the constituency was amazing I was as you know prevented from even being considered as a labor candidate and at that point I was encouraged by many people saying look put your name in you’ve got to stand up on this thing so I did and this is the result we’ve achieved achieved I’m very proud of it would you ultimately like to be back in the labor party are you happy to be outside the labor party it feels like you and the labor party are in a bit of a standoff how is that going to be resolved I’ve been given a mandate by the people of isington north on a Manifesto I presented to them as an independent candidate I said that if elected I would obviously work with MPS of all other parties in Parliament you can’t get anything done unless you do work with other MPS but I’ve been elected as an independent I wasn’t elected as a labor candidate the labor party contested this election and got a defeat a big defeat in fact one of the worst defeats in Islington North has ever been in fact the only labor defeat in Islington North since 1937 they brought that on themselves by not allowing the local party to act in a democratic Manner and choose its candidate it was the imposition uh that brought this about and so I’ve been elected as an independent I will proudly serve as an independent do you congratulate K stama this morning for his victory of of course of course of course I congratulate the incoming government it’s an enormous achievement to get a labor government I wish there was a stronger economic offer being made by the incoming government that would actually deal with many of the injustices and poverty that exists in our society but of course I want to see change I want to see a better Society I want to see an end to the country of billionaires and food banks that’s what I was saying in this campaign and that’s what I’ll be saying in Parliament kiss Arma made very clear that he was going to change the labor party he did change the labor party what he really meant is to change the labor party from the the kind of party that you led this may be a difficult line of questioning but would you concede at this point that you were probably never going to win as you with you as leader and he’s done something quite remarkable in electoral terms to turn it in a very short period of time into what looks like a bit of an election winning machine tonight in 2017 the labor party led by me got 41% of the vote that is considerably more than has been achieved by the labor party tonight so let’s if we’re going to start talking history let’s look at the facts and look at the figures of course the 2019 result was bad of course it was I know that I was part of that campaign and so for that matter was was Kia starma however we now have labor government that government needs to recognize that the hopes of many people who’ve seen their living standards Fall by 20% in the last 15 years arriving on change and if no change is offered and no change is forthcoming then there’s going to be political problems down the line it is at the end of the day all about people’s living standards lives and hopes Jeremy Corin Corbin congratulations on your Victory and thank you very much indeed for joining us thank you thank thank you very much very pleased looking Jeremy Corbin there now we’re told that godling Jeremy Hunt seat is so close very very close indeed uh maybe he will have held on let’s uh see I think what I’m going to do now is come and chat to Anushka about uh where we are we haven’t got an answer on Jeremy Hunt but we have got an answer on a whole L of other things do you know the thing I want to pick up on is something actually that Jeremy Corbin just said which was to point out that in 2017 got over 40% of the vote but he didn’t win and tonight it looks like K starma is going to win very big possibly with a smaller share of the vote and that is really about the efficiency of the vote Jane spoke to you about it before and we are now starting to see evidence of it so let me just start with this group so this is the safest conservative seats and look conservatives are winning these seats although interestingly look at those couple going to labor but if I show you the change of the share here this is going to show you a bit of a proportional swings you can see here labor is up 6.9% the Tories are down 31.8% another group that we know they’ve targeted very hard are red wall seats so look labor are winning all of these and let me show you the change of the share here labor also up 3.1% but there are other groups where they are not up and actually it is worth just showing you because we’ve been talking about it the change in share in those seats with a higher Muslim population I’ll just point out that you know lots of these haven’t come in yet um so when we switch to it we not got loads of results yet but we Richmond has been held for richy sunak we ought to just point that out sorry to interrup you and this is richy sunak um arriving sorry to interrupt you there’s uh Mr binface walking in front of I presume it’s Mr binface uh he rather advertises himself walking in front of rishy sunak going into his count but we understand despite AIDs that he was worried about losing his seat we understand he has not lost his seat we’ve heard that Liz trust may be under threat but rishy sunak uh a popular local MP I think it is fair to say generally has probably held on Michelle donellan the science secretary is out Anushka I interrupted you very rudely astonishing isn’t it the number of cabinet ministers that are going tonight um amazing and a couple of Shadow cabinet ministers but let me just show you the Share change here so these were those High Muslim population seats look at the difference there look at that labor are down 15.6% on average in the seats that we’ve got there conservatives also down and if I just go finally to labor safe seats and show you the change there you’re starting to see um when we get this that cha that efficient vote they’re winning bigger swings in the Target seats and in the areas where they are safest look at that 12.4% and by the way the number of Labor MPS in safe seats who have said to me they are tearing their hair out cuz they’re not even allowed to go and turn their vote out they have to go to Marginal seats what it has done is worked for K starma to get him a very big majority perhaps on that lower share than has happened in the past exactly what Jane was pointing out to us earlier do you want me to we Scotland yeah i’ like just showing you the Share on Scotland as well as the board we’ll come back to the board let me just show you the Share change on Scotland as well because hugely efficient and look at that labor up 19.3% now they were coming from a very low base but it just shows the recovery and then we can pull back onto the board and you can see you can actually see on the map that Central belt you know the area Nicola that you represented sounds like something exciting is about to about to happen but you can see this is just a com you know huge huge huge result and it made Labor’s Victory across the whole country so much easier although of course Steven Flynn as you can see still surviving there in abedine okay I’d like to talk about Scotland in a minute a little bit more with Nicola but let us go to godling where you can see that they are I am speaking very slowly because I’m trying to work out what is going on in that picture but we think that they are about to declare now we’ve been told this very close let’s see let’s see if Jeremy hun has held on it would obviously be it would obviously be helpful if they had a mic that worked that would that would really improve things you know you had one job I can’t really see Jeremy Hunt well enough here to see what what sort of expression he’s wearing on his face here we go I Pedro being the acting returning officer to hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate for the god of Ash constituency is as follows Dr Ram Richard reform UK 4,850 [Applause] follows Paul David liberal Democrats 22,4 and two hunt Jeremy Richard scos commonly known as Jeremy Hunt the conservative party 23, 293 Tucker Tucker Ruby Alice Gabrielle commonly known as Ruby Tucker green party 1,243 Walsh James Lawrence labor party 2,748 Williams women’s equality party 195 okay so Jeremy Hunt has held on whilst we wait for his speech I just want to bring you in George this feels like a really big moment uh actually I will come back to you about that because we need to go to Rishi sunak constituency bar being the deputy acting returning officer for the election of a member of parliament for the Richmond and North Aron constituency held yesterday Thursday the 4th of July 2024 do hereby give notice that the number of valid ballot papers of each for each candidate was as follows Jason Barner independent 27 Daniel George Callahan liberal Democrats 4,322 Angela ien Campion commonly known as Angie Campion independent 33 Louise and Dickens Workers Party of Britain 90 Kevin Foster the green party 2058 Rio Sebastian Justin goldhammer commonly known as Rio goldhammer Yorkshire party 132 Jonathan David Harvey commonly known as count binface count binface party 308 Graham Nichols commonly known as Sir archal Stanton the official monster raving Looney party 99 Nicholas amalan commonly known as Nico Amala 160 Brian Neil Richmond independent 222 Rishi sunak conservative party 23,5 Le Martin Taylor reform UK 7,142 Thomas James Wilson commonly known as Tom Wilson labor party 10,874 I hereby declare that rishy sunak is duly elected congratulations and we address the stand [Applause] good morning could I start by thanking the returning officer and all the team who’ve been working here at the count and at the polling stations today you make our democracy possible I’d also like to thank the police who have ensured that we can conduct this ballot here in North Yorkshire but also across the country in safety on this difficult night I’d like to express my gratitude to the people of the Richmond and North Allon constituency for your continued support since I moved here a decade ago go you have made me and my family feel so at home and I look forward to continuing to serve as your Member of Parliament it is an enormous privilege I’m grateful to my agent and constituency team and I congratulate my opponents here on the energetic and very good-natured campaigns that they have run the labor party has won this general election and I have called sakir starma to congratulate him on his victory today power will change hands in a peaceful and orderly manner with Good Will on all sides that is something that should give us all confidence in our country stability and future the British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight there is much to learn and reflect on and I take responsibility for the loss to the many good hardworking conservative candidates who lost tonight despite their tireless efforts their local records of delivery and their dedication to their communities I am sorry I will now head down to London where I will say more about tonight’s result before I leave the job of prime minister to which I have given my all I will then return here to my family’s home and I look forward to spending more time with you all in the weeks months and years ahead thank you there we are Rishi sunak conceding the election Jeremy Hunt squeaking back George felt like two quite significant moments there I mean first of all a very graceful concession by rishy sunak and uh I thought done as well as it could be done and I think no one has ever doubted that rishy sunak is himself a thoroughly decent sensible person who brought seriousness to the job when it was needed most and you know I think he will be able to say I rescued the British economy at you know at a moment when my predecessor had almost destroyed it and got inflation down and did my best I mean I suspect you’ll say there was a limit to what I could do given what had come before me um I think Jeremy Hunt is interesting first of all a lot of people were predicting he was going to be the first Chan 6 Checker that lost he didn’t he really has thrown everything into that local campaign in s but he disappeared completely didn’t he from the national stage uh you know his literature was all about him he put his own money into it and uh he’s he’s passionate about being a hello Clen and I think he’s in all the kind of conversations we’ve been having about the future of the Tory party and Camy badok this and Tom tugan AR that I I just note that Jeremy Hunter is going to be quite a big voice in all of that particularly in a smaller toy parliamentary party and he will be a voice for moderation for not chasing reforms tale uh for keeping the party where he has won his election in Su and so he obviously is a big figure because he’s been the chancellor done other jobs before that but I think he’s got a big role to play in the conservative party in the future George could I just ask you about something that Richie zunac said he said he was going to remain in his richm uh constituency it implies that what he said during the campaign is right that he’s going to remain as an MP for a while lots of people thought he would pack it in immediately and go to California what do you think he’ll do now and also lots of Tori MPS want him not to stand down as prime minister immediately they want him to stay for a few weeks so that the uh leadership campaign that will follow won’t be done in chaos and too fast do you think he’ll do that um I think yes there is a very strong pressure on him from the cabinet to stay for a few months I mean not forever but just for a few months so the dust settles so they’re not thrown immediately into a leadership contest so that they can digest what this result really means in other words to do what Michael Howard did in 2005 where he stayed on and because he stayed on for a few months David Cameron was ultimately elected whereas if the contest had happened immediately David Cameron wouldn’t have been in 2001 that didn’t happen and Ian Duncan Smith was elected and so um I think richy sunak will agree to do that would be my guest I certainly don’t know um and it’s interesting everyone assumes he wants to get off to California he’s got a house in Santa Monica but I don’t know I felt to me you know that maybe he will stay there in North Yia that felt quite heartfelt and uh we will see he worth months and years yeah what we will we will have taten in 10 minutes George’s former consistently we’ve the conservatives have narrowly held it okay we’ll take your word for it Nicola can we just can we just bring it back up the Scotland map because it’s uh a little while since we’ve talked about Scotland and obviously the results have been a little bit slow coming there but they have been coming through um Nicola can I just ask your view on the map and any surprises or it’s panning out pretty much as you think and if you’re if you’re John swinny and you’re thinking about okay we haven’t had a great night we had a very bad night but we’re rebuilding for next time any thoughts about about how difficult it is after this or you think actually it’s some of it was quite close and it’s relatively easy to bounce back so I mean firstly what I’m hearing from my S&P colleagues across the country would suggest that the exit poll has overestimated S&P seat numbers and we will slip into single figures of seats that’s a you know pretty devastating uh loss for the party tonight big swings obviously from the S&P to labor interestingly just looking at some of the detail uh about counterintuitively the swings in Glasgow look to be smaller than in other parts of the country there may be a Gaza effect there as well um obviously impossible to say but it it definitely looks quite marked vote share is obviously down but around 30% so far so you know that is not a disastrous base for John SNY now to start building towards the the Hollywood election you know I’ve been talking a lot tonight about the context of the election you know get the Tories out you know the S&P to some extent suffers a bit from Tor unpopularity I don’t think I can sit here and say that is the whole story tonight the the scale of the swings uh to labor you know suggest that Scotland or a big chunk of Scotland wanted to give the incumbent government of 17 years standing a bit of a bloody not as people are suffering you know living standards cost of living Public Services struggling with the cumulative impact of austerity and so what did John swiny do I said earlier on his leadership’s in no doubt at all he’s the best guy to lead us forward now um and but we’ve got to reflect on how we regain that trust with people on code issues of delivery and also re-inject a bit of Hope for the future um and you know is that going to be easy after a result like tonight undoubtedly not I think it would be bizarre for me to suggest otherwise um but can it be done yes I believe it can and I believe in John the part’s got the leader that is best equipped to do it and I just show you the the bits of Scotland that had a high independence vote I think we can just I should just say before we do that labor have officially won the election I think I’m right in hearing that that they have officially gone to 326 and therefore they have won this election we can probably show you that on the tracker if you want okay let’s do it if we can um let try it okay let’s leave that for a minute let’s just finish this discussion let me just show you this look at how many seats in very high Independence areas have gone to labor and the one thing nicolar I’m just interested in is you decided to make this very high stakes on Independence initially you were the deao referend suggestion later the party saying you know we this is our negotiating mandate there was an MP who said if you don’t get that then the debate around Independence is over that does not look good does it no I mean so we discussed this earlier on you know the S&P in this election put independence first line of the first page of the manifesto as was my reflection earlier on was that I I don’t think it’s sufficiently followed through from that into the day-to-day campaigning to you know very very meaningfully and proactively make the case for Independence it’s not enough to say something is the centerpiece of your campaign and would that have worked I don’t know perhaps it was always going to be a get the toies out vote labor a bit of a a verdict on on public services but it would have given I think the S&P more of a unique selling point that you know the way to move on from the conservatives to tackle some of these underlying issues was to keep the momentum going for Independence so I think that will be a reflection um obviously you know the main main reflection is for the party that’s you know just taking a bit of a an electoral kicking tonight and that’s the SNP I do think particularly for labor it would be a mistake to think this kills Independence because so many of these voters who have voted labor for the first time yesterday instead of s SMP they haven’t stopped supporting Independence they have just in the short term thought that the reason they support Independence to get a better Scotland might be an objective better served by getting the to out and and voting labor but that support and all the polls bear this out that support for Independence hasn’t gone now you know there’s no doubt making the immediate case for Independence as a harder sale off the back of a result like this but that that support is there the demographics of that support are very very Stark um and you know the SNP has to reflect now in how it gets back on the front foot in the independence case question whether um um is this the bottom for the S&P or is there is there further to fall um so it’s a good question one of the things I’ve been reflecting on during the campaign is what is I this is maybe not the right terminology to use but what is the kind of floor of S&P support given the you know the sort of uh linkage with support for Independence now had that stayed at 35% then we probably wouldn’t have had quite the number of seat losses tonight’s result which I mean we’ll see where the ultimate vote share ends up it’s round about 30% just now so I I would suggest that is probably now I I think it would be horribly complacent for any party to assume you can’t fall further than we’re seeing that tonight but I do think that gives a foundation for the S&P now to shake itself down to you know think hard about some of the factors of this result tonight and and rebuild towards that election the other thing and I you know we’ll see in Ed right to point out we’ve got to see what K starm has made of as prime minister and what labor do but if you know my gut is right and that labor very quickly can of run into cynicism and disillusionment you know that’s going to make that task for the S&P over the next couple of years a little bit easier so it’s you know it’s a really bad night for the S SMP you know as I said earlier on there’s a lot of my really good friends H and their members of Staff who are also friends are losing their jobs tonight that’s heartbreaking but the party’s got to pick itself up and dust itself down and get on with it I think L people wondered would they ever come back in Scotland and on the tonight they’re back what are the lessons of I think for all of us tonight in different ways and been George that made this point earlier on um that politics is always cyclical and any party any politician that thinks it’s always in One Direction is making a big mistake and this is a a sobering lesson for many of I’ve got to interrupt this for a moment because I’m afraid that I have to say that one of us has to leave the table at this point it’s basically uh it’s kind of some kind of version of I’m a celebrity we’ve taken a vote and we’ve voted that Ed is going to leave to no I’m kidding all things I’m going to say I was about to be crawled over by rats and S we have to eat kind of kind of you know very sadly we’ve loved his company not for the first time but he has to leave us because he’s presenting gmbb so um you will be watching him in an hour and four minutes or whatever it is but he has to make a quick shift uh across London I’m just explain you again in a bit you you will yes and uh we’ve loved having you so thank you very much good luck on gmbb you’ll have a lot of results and it’ll be fun can I say look enjoy the last hour or so and have a nice rest and think of me we we will but but we will but probably not that much but no K we will of course have no idea yeah I’m a GMB presenter get me out of here yeah GMB presenter get me out of here okay let’s move on let’s come back to this side of the desk and maybe we’ve been waiting for a while to kind of upm Colin and Jane with you I feel like we’ve had a lot of stuff all kinds of things have happened great night for labor bad night for the Tories some cabinet ministers have lost their seats some cabinet ministers have survived surprisingly Jeremy hump still waiting to hear Liz TR obviously not a cabinet minister but waiting to see what happens to her still a lot in the mix if you had to sum up where we’ve got to where would how would you do it I think Tom it’s in some ways it’s an extraordinary result because here is labor going to win a massive majority and yet they share the vote is going to be up only a little bit from the 2019 election except in Scotland where as Nicola was rightly saying there’s been a big clear swing from labor to the SNP in most of the rest of England though there are caveats about this Labor’s vote looks pretty flat but we’re beginning to see the shape of a different sort of politics even in England so labor now have every seat in the northeast of England for example right so that may be not quite so surprising but equally they’ve just won Worthing West Peter bosly see the father of the house who’s lost and you go labor Worthing that doesn’t sound right labor South End that doesn’t sound right labor chst labor the Dem of Labor I of white doesn’t you know so with the the geography of the country is going different but on the other hand on the minor side for labor we’ve now also seen a number of independent candidates contesting against the labor party in labor seats and winning despite the general flow towards La labor by emphasizing uh ethnic interests in those constituencies and particularly controversy over the situation in Gaza and in the Middle East and we’ve heard for example that Jess Phillips who’s the MP for Birmingham Yardley has won her seat but only by about 700 votes and there’s a very challenging Muslim independent candidate in Birmingham ladywood against shabam mmud who again is a important figure in the uh starma uh labor party and a Muslim herself but is being challenged on on sort of policy issues and how well local people think the labor party is representing their interests so so Labor’s done fantastically well in terms of seats its vote share I think on balance has been disappointing and it too has threats on its left in the same way as the conservatives have been completely decimated tonight by the threats on the right from the reform party so I think there are kind of three key messages that this election is giving us and I agree with Colin it is a really extraordinary result in so many ways I think the first thing to say is that we may be rivaling the lowest ever turnout we’ve had in a general election um so that was 59% in 2001 and we may be around the same level so that’s a very very low turnout um election not dissimilar to 2001 in the sense that there was an obvious winner in that particular election and people didn’t see large differences between the parties but we know that we’re in a very different context now with a lot of disillusionment and a lot of kind of lack of trust I think the second thing um is that it’s really the night of the smaller parties reform is doing a huge amount of damage to the conservative party in all kinds of seats um without though winning we think the kinds of numbers of MPS that we thought at the beginning of the night in the exit pole um so that’s a modification that’s a a much lower estimation now of the likely number of MPS but nevertheless doing a huge amount of damage the liberal Democrats doing far better than expected um in not necessarily in all of the pre polling and the mrps but nevertheless doing very very well um and the final thing is we will be talking about the relationship between votes to seats after this election because the labor party does look like having a phenomenal return of seats on a much much you know very modest vote share in relation to that huge huge seat share Jane lot of stuff is happening karma is arriving uh where is he arriving Rees smog is out Esa M vay is in she’s held on to tattan George’s old seat this is uh I guess kiss arm’s first speech as ative prime minister not in Downing Street but this is his T tap take modern I understand tap mod okay is it the tape mod thank thanks thanks for that let’s listen to what he’s got to say thank you thank you thank you so much for that reception what an amazing reception we did it for it you voted for it and now it has arrived change begins now and it feels good I have to be honest four and a half years of work changing the party this is what it is for a changed labor party ready to serve our country ready to restore Britain to the service of working people and across our country people will be waking up to the news relieved that a weight has been lifted a burden finally removed from the shoulders of this great nation and now we can look forward again walk into the morning the sunlight of Hope pale at first but getting stronger through the day shining once again on a country with the opportunity after 14 years to get its future back and I want to thank each and every one of you here for campaigning so hard for Change and not just in this campaign either also for these four and a half years changing our party the labor Mar movement is always everything’s achieved part past and future down to the efforts of its people so thank you truly you have changed our country but a mandate like this comes with a great responsibility our task is nothing less than renewing the ideas that hold this country together National renewal whoever you are wherever you started in life if you work hard if you play by the rules this country should give you a fair chance to get on it should always respect your contribution and we have to restore that and alongside that we have to return politics to Public Service show that politics can be a force for good make no mistake that is the great test of politics in this era the fight for trust is the battle that defines our age it is why we’ve C pain so hard on demonstrating we are fit for public service service is the precondition for Hope respect the bond that could unite a country together the values of this change labor party are the gr guing principle for a new government country first party second that is the responsibility of this mandate you know 14 years ago we were told that we’re all in it together I say to the British people today imagine what we can do if that were actually true so by all means enjoy this moment nobody can say you haven’t waited patiently enjoy the feeling of waking up on a morning like this with the emotion that you do see the country through the same eyes hold on to it because it is what Unity is made from but use it to show to the rest of the country as we must that this party has changed that we will serve them Faithfully govern for every single person in this country but also don’t forget how we got here this morning we can see that the British people have voted to turn the page on 14 years but don’t pretend that there was anything inevitable about that there’s nothing pre-ordained in politics election victories don’t fall from the sky they’re hard one and hard fought for and this one could only be one by a changed labor party we have the chance to repair our Public Services because we changed the party we have the chance to make work pay because we changed the party we have the chance to deliver for working people young people vulnerable people the poorest in our society because we change the party country first party second isn’t a slogan it’s the guiding principle everything we have done and must keep on doing on the economy on National Security on protect our borders the British people had to look Us in the eye and see that we can serve their interests and that work doesn’t stop now it never stops the changes we’ve made are permanent irreversible and we must keep going we ran as a changed labor party and we will govern as a changed labor party I don’t promise you it will be easy changing a country is not like flicking a switch it’s hard work patient work determined work and we will have to get moving immediately but even when the going gets tough and it will remember tonight and always what this is all about now I may have mentioned my parents a few times in this campaign once or twice but the sense of security we had the Comfort they took from believing that Britain would always be better for their children the hope not highminded not idealistic but a hope that workingclass families like mine could build their lives around it is a hope that may not burn brightly in Britain at the moment but we have earned the mandate to relight the fire that is the purpose of this party and of this government we said we would end the chaos and we will we said we would turn the page and we have today we start the next chapter begin the work of change the mission of national renewal and start to rebuild our country thank you thank you that is a very very cheerful looking sakir starma our new prime minister in name if not yet in fact he’s worked very hard for this moment as we’ve discussed all evening a Ruth campaign ruthlessly efficient almost no missteps I think we’re all agreed he adopted a safety first straty but my has it worked and I’m joined Again by Margaret Hodge and sitting in Ed bulls’ seat balls look Alik massive upgrade just saying um what are your thoughts as you watch this well if you’d ask me in 2019 would would we be in at government in 2024 I’d have said not a chance you know we had the worst result we could possibly have in 2019 going uh and I just didn’t believe I thought it would take a decade I lived through the 80s and I thought it would take a decade to rebuild labor and bring us to the center and I think people felt about Kia that you know he was uh not an incred not a very strong person actually what he’s shown is that ruthlessness I haven’t watched your coverage all through the night what where have you been in other studiio but other studios are available they’re just lesser so he has been completely and utterly ruthless and it’s paid off and I think the other the only thing I would say is that coming out of the the whole evening I’m also worried I think the turnout was very low I do worry about that um uh I think that shows a sort of loss of confidence in politics we know that people don’t trust politicians anymore I think I’m afraid that comes out of how Boris Johnson and Liz truss behaved you know on on uh feeling that they had an entitlement to break the rules then lying with impunity then doing crazy things and using political power to award contracts to uh award honors to award access all that sort of stuff that has brought politics into terrible disrepute so I’m worried about that and I think that has led really to to reform to the uh you know people using that as a sort of uh uh a vote of protest really um going to going to reform which feels to me like it felt when I was fighting the BMP between 2006 and 2010 it doesn’t feel different from that when at that time there was a lot of confidence in labor you’re leaving Parliament I am after 27 years 30 years 30 years sorry any regrets when you see a morning like this of course of course there’s a bit of regret but can I just say this I’ve been around the country over the last six weeks and I’ve just over the time met a lot of the candidates and a lot of the new MPS I am hugely hugely impressed by the new uh group of uh people who are coming in with uh under the labor Banner both men and women with fantastic experience uh very diverse backgrounds um huge enthusiasm real commitment I think we are going to have a stunning group of people in government I really really do I think there are a lot of people coming up who will perform brilliantly as ministers and leading us to what will be an incredibly difficult time we’ve had a lot of developments both Bournemouth seats for the Tories gone Tobias Elward I think we put in the one nation wing of the Tory party Connor Burns of course was very close to Boris Johnson both gone Rob any news of Liz truss or other matters no we’re still waiting to get the final uh count for Liz trust to say she looks in in Peril um I mean this has been actually I you know actually the most remarkable election night of my professional life um it’s just in so many different ways I mean obviously there is this spuriously simple story of Labor you know winning this ex this possibly still record-breaking majority possibly still record-breaking but huge but under that stuff you just never expected to see um I just want to take us back to the votare you know labor currently uh slightly less than 36% of the vote Jeremy Corbin in 2017 got more than 40% of the vote and you were nowhere near forming a government yeah but but the the reason for that was that he concentrated his entire campaign his entire energy on those safe labor seats so he simply solidified vot okay can I stop can I stop you both because we’re going to 10 I give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows heny Nigel Robert Green Party 2,571 Jude Ryan Bernard labor party 18,820 [Applause] McVey McVey Esther Louise the conservative party 19,000 [Applause] 956 Smith Jonathan liberal Democrats 4,614 Speakman Oliver George reform UK 5,948 the number of ballot papers rejected was as follows want of an official Mark zero voting for more candidates than voter was entitled to 31 writing or Mark by which voter could be identified two being unmarked or holy void for uncertainty 65 total rejected 198 turnout 68.5 n% and I do hereby declare that Esther Lise McVey is duly elected Member of parli Parliament for the tatan constituency thank you Esther McVey is back now I’m probably breaking a confidence here but George walked into the dress rehearsal the other day and said mfield Is Lost and Tatton is on a knife this was what two days ago 3 days ago boy were you right I mean that is a I mean look this is no comment on me as a local MP but the idea that taton was marginal in my day I mean it was inconceivable I mean the idea that you would get anything like this result with labor so close to taking Esther but she’s you know all credit to her and particularly the local team who I know well you know they have held off the the red tide in in taten um and that you know it’s an odd story isn’t it tonight I mean you’ve got these either near misses for labor lots of spectacular winds from labor we’ve just talking about bour basing Stokes gone labor I mean you know that seats that never went labor under Tony Blair and yet you know the share the labor share of the vote is going to be one of the lowest for a governing party the turnout is down uh K dama of course gives the speech looks Prime ministerial because he’s about to be the Prime Minister interestingly I thought reinforces the message of party change to his to his activists but you know what the Mandate the Mandate is kick the Tories out kick the S&P out in Scotland deliver change and then we know there’s not much in the manifesto so it’s all now on starm he becomes the incumbent we’ve just had an election when the incumbent’s got a big kicking he is a becoming the incumbent and all around the world uh incumbents are struggling at the moment and it’s going to require a phenomenal effort in government and and me that that is right I mean the big lesson of this election is the confirmation that tribal loyalties to parties are so much weaker than they were I mean we’ve talked about the extraordinary result for labor such an enormous majority on a relatively low vote share but the lib dams are getting numbers that they last got you know 20 oldd years ago when they were polling twice as many I mean they’re only on about 11% they were up at 20% uh before the great C collapse um so it’s a very weird result in so many ways we’re about to go to tumbridge where Tom tugan hat uh who will be a Tory leadership candidate we’re fairly sure is almost certainly going to get reelected um and when I said we’re about to I mean we’re going to right now at this election for the Member of Parliament to represent Tom brbd constituency held on Thursday 4th of July 2024 to hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows Lewis William John Bailey Labour party 9,351 Anna Victoria cope the GRE green party 7,596 Ian brage Social Democrat Party 156 Theresa Susan Hansford reform UK 7,548 Tim Shaw independent Alliance Kent 900 26 Tom tugan hat the Conservative Party candidate 20, 517 John Walcom liberal Democrat 4,234 the number of ballot papers rejected was as follows want off an official Mark zero voting for more than more candidates than the V Tom Tuan hat almost certainly a candidate for the leadership is back very safely in tumbridge that was never in any doubt um but that certainly puts him at the uh top of the list or in the list of potential contenders now let’s go and join Joanna Cherry in Edinburgh who has lost her seat Joanna um sorry for your sake to hear that you’ve lost your seat what is your reaction to that well it’s politic itics isn’t it I mean I’ve had a good Innings three election victories in a row and I think this is Labor’s night obviously it’s an outstanding Landslide and uh what’s basically happened so far as I can see in Edinburgh at least is that the conservative vote has pretty much collapsed and gone largely to labor rather than to the SNP I mean the S&P is clearly not having a good night what do you put that down to well I put it partly down to the reality that this is really about getting rid of the Tory government which was so unpopular and people have decided to vote labor to do that but I also think there’s been some tactical voting and I think the SNP have faced some problems in that we’ve really had two aspects to our support that both of which have been squeezed on the one hand uh those who passionately believe in the cause of Independence many of them feel that we’ve rather dropped the ball in that cause despite some outstanding opportunities during the brexit years and the Boris Johnson years and on the other hand we have many other people who used to vote for us because they saw us as a party of Integrity who were strong and competent in government who perhaps feel that that reputation has taken a bit of a battering in recent years so we’ve lost out on on two sets of Voters and been squeezed from both sides if you like obviously the s SMP took the decision in this election to Place Independence at the front and center of its campaign was that a mistake well no I mean it’s never a mistake for the party of Independence to put Independence at the front and center of its campaign I think what the problem here is is that in the 10 years since the independence referendum not enough thought has been given to how we make the case for Independence and win over those who don’t support it or who are undecided and in the middle and not enough thought has been given to developing the strategy for the delivery of Independence and of course when the SNP does best and when the cause of Independence rides high is when the SNP is governing competently and with Integrity you’re well aware I’ve got the former first Minister sitting next to me here and I don’t want this to be awkward for any of us but I guess I have to ask uh who do you hold responsible for Independence not being pursued in the way that you seem to be suggesting it should have been well I was all it was easy with the benefit of hindsight H to see what has gone wrong but there were of those of us in the party who argued for a different strategy at Westminster for a different strategy during the brexit years and for a different strategy towards independence but let’s just say our suggestions did were not well received and there was a lack of debate and a lack of discussion over policy and strategy in the party under both Nicholas’s leadership and under Ian blackford’s leadership at Westminster and I think when the story of the Westminster group is written it will be recognized and understood that that group was poorly LED until Steven Flynn came along but Steven didn’t really have the time to turn things around and that we missed some big opportunities when effectively we were pretty close to holding the balance of power during the bra years during trees am trials and tribulations and we also failed to capitalize on the great victory that I won in the Supreme Court when H Boris Johnson’s uh prorogation of parliament was ruled H unlawful so it’s as I say it’s always easy to criticize with the benefit of hindsight but I think these policy failings and these strategic failings arose because of a style of leadership that didn’t Brook discussion debate or argument H and I think that’s been a big failing of the party and what I think now the party has to do is the party has to honestly appraise what has gone wrong because until we do that until we address what’s gone wrong and until we try to set it right we’re not going to reverse this setback for the SNP Joan and Cherry thank you very much indeed for joining us Nichola I have feel like I have to give you right of reply there because whether directly articulated or not it felt like quite a lot of that was directed at you I don’t think Hy who knows the S SMP at all would be surprising no I am I am one my biggest critics and has look I’m not in the business tonight you know when the S&P suffered a pretty bruising result to dismiss anybody’s criticism I think that would be foolish and and the wrong thing to do so um we should all you know take time to reflect and listen to different points of view um I mean I would point out that Joanna’s three election victories were all delivered under my leadership of the SNP of course but um that’s perhaps uh looking backwards rather than forwards um I mean I’ve already I think there is some you know hard thinking for the S&P to do tonight but you know as we’ve been reflecting in relation to other parties sometimes you know you can you know learn the wrong lessons from defeats and I think it’s there’s a danger the S SMP does that I think we’ve got to H think about the the different aspects of this and pick ourselves up I mean one of the the things at the heart of what Joanna was saying there is like you know we had this golden opportunity to win independence and we somehow just didn’t take it um you know I tried very hard as s SMP leader to progress the independence uh case and to find a route to allowing people to have uh to take that decision again the problem we’ve got is that there is with a Westminster undemocratic veto the lack of a legal route at the moment and there’s no magic wand that can make that disappear and what was perhaps missing from Joanna’s interview there was any suggestion of how that should have been overcome so that’s one of the things the snp’s got to to Grapple with can I just say I’m sorry that that Joan has lost to say I’m sorry that every s SMP defeated candidate tonight has lost H but we need to think carefully and learn the right lessons from this one final point on this I feel like this has turned into quite a lot of tougher night for the S SMP and perhaps for you than we thought at the start and I’m assuming you can’t fail to feel some responsibility for that I mean you know you were the leader for a long time maybe your supporters might say Well it all fell apart after you left I mean your critics would say the reverse I think I think you know often you find in these kind of positions you’re neither the hero that your biggest supporters rever you as nor the villain that your critics s of revil you as um I delivered eight consecutive election victories for the S SMP as leader three general election victories um as part of that I’ve not been leader now for more than a year so I as somebody who has been dominant in the S&P not just as leader but as Deputy leader before that of course I take responsibility or my share of responsibility for where the party is now uh but I think for anybody in the current leadership to sort of take refuge in how it’s somehow on my fault would be not just because I think it would be unfair to me that’s by The Bu that’s not the issue here I think it would just be you know taking the easy uh solution or or response to this rather than looking seriously and hard at what the real issues are very good can we just summarize Where We Are Colin you need to update us on the forecast I do indeed um we’ve yet again had a little look see at what’s been going on and put another um tweak into the modeling that we’ve been been pursuing all evening and I think we’ve the one thing we seemed to have got a little bit wrong earlier was expecting reform to win rather more seats than they actually have um we now have the SNP down in single figures which I think is perhaps what Nicola is is expecting rather disappointingly for her um greens uh doing well and still yet may win another seat or perhaps to so at the moment we’re saying that the conservatives we expect to get 127 seats labor 414 the libdem 68 and I’d say in parenthesis that the libdem story is much the same as the labor story their vote share is hardly unchanged from the 2019 election but look at all the seats they’ve got they won eight seats in 2019 they’re going to win comfort over 60 tonight reform we have on four Greens on three s SMP and 8 as I said ped Cy on four and others on 22 the others include Northern Ireland but also as we’ve been discussing some of these independent candidates that been winning seats from labor especially that that means that the projected labor majority is 178 which is just shy one shy where Margaret will remember she and Tony and all the rest of them were when things going get better in 1997 there will be as I said earlier in the program I suspect sir Tony Blair will be thrilled with this result every feature of it labor back but just one shortt I mean what should not underestimate how different the House of Commons will feel 400 if if if our production well it’s obviously in the right ballpark 414 labor MPS 68 liberal Democrats maybe eight SNP the shift to the left of politics for green um will be absolutely massive um I have to say though it is a bit out of kilter with what the voting shares say the position of the country is yes a majority of British people who voted low turnout uh you know have voted for left of center parties but even so you know you know if if if the referendum party ends up with 15% of the vote and the Tores with this spectacularly low share I mean never in history below 30% 23% vote share they’re at at the moment that is still a sizable number of British people who feel that they’re on the right of politics and they will not feel properly represented by this Parliament and that’s a that is a challenge for K St okay we to pick that up in a minute but we just need to go and get a summary of how the country is uh reacting as I guess people are starting to wake up seems a bit intuitive because we’ve counter intuitive because we haven’t actually gone to sleep but clearly some people decided they would and they’re waking up uh so let’s see how people have been reacting thank you Tom welcome back to The Newsroom let’s remind you of some of the key moments of election night 2024 the party has begun for labor the hard work of governing will begin soon but for now sakir starma Labour’s seventh prime minister the first man to win for the party since Tony Blair says the country has backed his call for change we did it you campaigned for it you fought for it you voted for it and now it has arrived change begins now the Prime Minister Rishi sunak says he has called sakir starma to congratulate him after Labor returns to power for the first time in 14 years the British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight there is much to learn and reflect on and I take responsibility for the loss to the many good hardworking conservative candidates who lost tonight despite their tireless efforts their local record records of delivery and their dedication to their communities I am sorry well let’s take stock of some of those key conservatives who have lost their seats tonight the leader of the House of Commons Penny Morant lost her seat in Portsmouth North to labor other cabinet ministers saying goodbye to government and Parliament the defense secretary Grant shaps the education secretary Jillian Keegan Lucy Fraser Michelle donellan and Alex chalk and the former cabinet minister Jacob Reese MOG has just lost his seat in Somerset if there were to be a Tory leadership contest potential contenders Camy badok soel Bradman won and so did Tom tugen hat as did narrowly the chancellor Jeremy Hunt in godling and Ash in Scotland the ITV News forecast is now predicting the S SMP will win eight SE seats down from 48 seats in 2019 19 its leader John swinny said it’s been a very poor night it’s been a good night for the lib Dems forecast to win 60 seats a good night for reform and a good night for the UK’s independent candidates Paul take us through some of the independent winners yeah Nina this has been one of the big breakthrough stories of this election labor have been concerned about independent candidates for a while and they were right to be in fact Independents may end up with the same number of seats reform UK these are some of the big stories of this evening so Jeremy Corbin unsurprisingly one Islington north of course he’s got a huge profile there that was to be expected but this was a surprise Jonathan Ashworth a key member of The Shadow cabinet lost his seat of Leicester South to an independent who campaigned on Gaza and I wondered if he looked a bit worried when he was on our program earlier this evening West streeting came within 500 votes of losing his seat in ilford North another name that many of you will recognize Jess Phillips also run very closely in her Birmingham seat too and as you can see in uh the constituency of chingford and Woodford green there are cases as well where Independents have helped the conservatives to hold the seat so here Ian Duncan Smith was under our exit pole expected to actually lose this seat but he didn’t because labor and this independent candidate here got virtually the same share of the vote allowing him to come through the middle this has been a pattern in Yorkshire too so let’s cross to John Ray who’s there for us this evening and John what is the latest in Yorkshire I believe another independent as well as seat there yeah no state of Independence here in uh Leeds where I am a labor of just in the last half hour completed a clean sweep of all seven seats but if you headed about six six miles down the road you would get to the new seat of jewsbury and Batley and there you would find a candidate now an MP called ikbal M Hussein Muhammad who absolutely thumped his labor rival sort of double uh her vote now he is an interesting man he traded very heavily on his local credentials as a community worker but even more so on Gaza a vote for labor is a vote for genocide he said now of course there’s nothing new in populations like that heavily South Asian voting with religion but what is new here and in Leicester and elsewhere is them voting not with labor all right John thank you very much uh good luck with the rest of the counts there in Yorkshire so n a really interesting pattern emerging here because aside from labor of course winning this huge majority Parliament looks quite fragmented we’ve got the SNP down to eight seats we’ve got reform UK we’ve got all these independent candidates the green party picking up seats too it really does look like quite a splintered picture yeah Paul thank you very much so labor not without problems despite a landslide Victory Tom okay Nina thank you very much indeed well listen I’ve got to be honest if you’ve stuck with us all night uh maybe you felt it’s gone really slowly but I feel like this election night has whizzed by faster than uh any of these overnight programs I can recall and we’ve had a few dramatic events including of course uh brexit but there is still drama ahead including the possibility not likelihood possibility that Liz truss might lose her seat Robert has uh some intelligence not necessarily definitive but yeah I’ve been well I’ve been talking to people on the ground uh I mean the background to this shouldn’t forget this is one of the safest or was one of the safest tour seats she had just under 70% of the vote at the last election but there’s been a four-way contest uh reform has taken significant amount of the votes uh a formator known as the turn Taliban Mr Bag has taken a fair amount of votes and as I understand it therefore it it is now very close between labor and Liz trust and I am being told that it looks as though labor have squeaked victory in that seat now if that happens that will be seen as the most symbolically important result of the night that would be we keep talking about this I hate the cliche Portillo moment but this would be apparently it could happen in the next quarter of an hour unless there’s a recap which of course there may be if it’s as close as I’m told it is but in a way it’s a deserved result if it’s right so it’s slightly different from the Portillo moment which was just you know he was a victim of what was happening to the conservative party this is actually probably a verdict on how she completely smashed the economy with her mini budget isn’t it I mean I think this is quite interesting it shows a sort of Greater intelligence and sensitivity of of the electorate to individual circumstances and we’re seeing that a little bit across the piece um than than we have in the past George how do you think the Tory party will react to Liz truss losing her seat if she does I think there’s a lot of anger towards her uh because you know rightly or wrongly people felt at that point you know there was a real chance of winning the next election okay Boris Johnson had gone and been brought down um but that was the moment when the economic credibility went and that’s always been the core of the conservative party’s appeal the reason why conservative party usually wins elections rather than facing big defeats like this um and of course she’s been trying to rebuild herself as a sort of trumpian right- Winger I don’t think so will stop her but it will mean you know well let’s see if she’s not in Parliament she won’t have that platform and in a smaller much reduced Tory parliamentary party she’d have a kind of outside voice in that smaller party so but look we you know we will see we will see Nicha we talked a bit about Scotland taking a step back what do you think about the rest of the UK and I mean it’s like it’s been I think one of the reasons it’s flown by at least for me is that it’s been so I we’ve just been told the greens have now won four seats it’s been so full of incredible developments like this potentially massive labor majority but also a lot of contradictions yeah it’s been extraordinary and you know I agree with you it’s absolutely flown past because of that because there is so much and it’s actually quite difficult to S of grasp what is the obviously the big story is labor winning a landside in terms of seats but you know I think very notable is the the labor vote share being as low as it is you know that says something about the broken electoral system we’ve got but that’s not a new thing and I suspect labor will have no motivation now to change the electoral system now um but it’s it is volatility it is I think Colin said it’s that break down of tribal loyalty to parties it’s people voting on the basis of of issues so for smaller parties because of the Gaza issue and some respects um so it’s a really complex picture it’s a fascinating picture and I think what it says for an incoming labor government is there’s going to be no time to sort of sit back and work out what they’re going to do they’re going to be under pressure from day one and nothing can be taken for granted you know this is an electorate that is prepared to move in different directions and the pressure on starmer now to deliver you know meaningful change and Improvement to people’s experience of life is going to be really significant I mean it’s interesting as Labor’s vote share I don’t know is now drifting down towards 35% you know but look massive majority 35% and a majority of 170 I mean you could I mean the S&P is a terrible night in Scotland right but but we’re hovering around 30% of the vote you know labor on labor in Scotland have done better than that but Labor’s about to win a historic Landslide on you know just just a few percentage points more than the snp’s gotten it’s a disastrous night that says something profound about how broken first P the post is I mean interestingly I think Nigel farage is about to become your Ally on that because he’ll be complaining he only got four seats that might make him CH I think with things you thought you’d never hear but by the way I think um I mean you know the vot share might continue to go down right as because now we’re getting into sort of large Tory rural seats and uh it it could be one of the most extraordinary discon next uh but as you say uh I don’t think the lab party is going to be a very interesting electoral after this result and they also won’t care about that right Mass they are right let’s um as we’ve said the night has flown by sometimes it’s hard to keep a handle makes sense makes sense of what it all means so shorter because I did wear my heels for well I noticed that but I mean come on it’s it’s done fair enough listen you’ve been discussing vote share so let’s just start with that you can see where it is now as Jane says it may well change with those safer Tory seats coming in but that’s 35% and a huge majority much bigger than when Tony Blair got 35% in 2005 and obviously as we’ve said lower than Jeremy Corbin in 2017 Colin and I have been discussing for months the efficiency of the vote and here it is in practice let me just show you vote share uh vote change sorry you can sort of see the story of the night here look at that huge surge for reform that has in many seats triangulated with with the conservatives and allowed labor to come up although let’s not take away from that huge night for labor as you can see on the map over here now I’m going to bring up my Battle Board it’s almost full now and you can see the scale of it you can see all those labor seats well over that majority line and Beyond there are seats Beyond this percentage swing as well see that takes you up to 18% swing there at the end one thing that has happened is that reform shift particularly in leave seats and I can actually just isolate these were conservative held leave seats look at them at every end of the board you can see them turning red I have to finally show you the cabinet minister board um we’ll bring that up this is a record-breaking number of cabinet ministers to go um for one night that’s the share but if we actually show the board itself you can see the numbers who have gone usually we get one scalp or two all across that board as you have been showing through the night and I do think this has been a really big night for the liberal Democrats so I want to show you the conservative held remain seats so these were 2019 conservative seats with big remain majorities in the EU referendum and look at that and actually the libdems have won all over the place an absolutely stunning night for them and I have to finish by showing you our tally tracker we started the evening by putting our exit pole onto it and we can put the exit pole on again and now we can put the real result on top of it you can see tracking pretty much alonger it did actually come slightly higher for labor at one point but look at the conservatives down there at the moment tracking below that level the Liv Di’s tracking above okay Nishka thank you very much this feels like a good moment to go and talk to KL and romaly who have been with the respective uh leaders as in K St and richy Sun there are other party leaders of course let us go to Carl first talk about kiss Dharma I mean you know he must have been having a the night yeah I think he did uh he started off watching I don’t know maybe he was watching ITV who knows he was watching with friends uh somewhere in London he wasn’t at home then he went to his cun and then he arrived here at the Tate Modern Art Gallery uh just before 4:00 this morning H and not long after he arrived here he got a telephone call from the Prime Minister uh conceding defeat and congratulating him and then he came up here uh to the turbine Hall uh to address labor party activists uh who were really quite emotional I mean some of these are young activists who can’t even remember 1997 the last time Labor uh came into par from opposition it was a smaller event I remember 1997 I was there this was a slightly smaller less public event it was just labor party activists but also uh some a few well-known faces from the labor party including Neil kinnick who was in the studio with you earlier and he had a tear in his eye when he spoke to me afterwards about just how much this means to him Kier Storer has now gone to uh catch a bit of sleep uh and then we’ll wake up and we’ll be expecting a phone call from the palace Carl it’s quite hard to imagine anyone sleeping after a night like that uh but maybe he can good for him if he can thank you very much Carl let’s uh talk to romal the Prime Minister must be feeling pretty miserable at this point isn’t he I mean it was a miserable campaign pretty much nothing went well and it’s been a horrible night yeah absolutely no sleep for him either he is heading up to London no doubt reflecting on the resignation speech that he is about to give he was an absolutely unrecognizable Rishi suaka who appeared on stage here about an hour ago uh so different from the person full of VI and energy that we’ve seen in the campaign he looked absolutely devastated as he conceded defeat and said that he was sorry to all the candidates who’ve lost their seats it seems pretty clear he’s going to take the criticism head on and there is going to be plenty of it coming his way during the campaign he really didn’t want to acknowledge any mistakes apart from the obvious one of dday uh but there is going to be dissection now of his decision to call an early election of not to take on reform more aggressively he did get reelected here there will be some consolation in that he said it is an enormous privilege to serve but he is going to be serving as a backbencher now in a party which pretty clearly is going to get down to the business of tearing itself apart okay romaly thank you very much indeed and just uh while we’ve been talking we’ve heard that Liam fox has lost his seat the neighboring seat to Jacob ree MOG who has also lost his seat and as we’ve just been through with Anushka there is a really substantial number of Tory big beasts as we might call them now who have gone now we are going to go to Dan rivers in Washington uh to talk a little bit about how America may be viewing this uh Dan good morning trying to work out uh no it’s middle of the night with you good evening whatever it is um what how do you think America is going to wake up to this news I mean not surprised Pres no I don’t think so uh I have to be frank uh this hasn’t been dominating the headlines uh here in the US in the way that obviously it has been in the UK there’s a small matter of the future of President Biden that has been uh generating a few headlines over here combined with the fact it’s the 4th of July so it’s a national holiday there are fireworks going off off all across Washington so people have had their minds on other things but look K starma hasn’t really got a profile here yet he’s about to get one he’ll be here in Washington on Tuesday for the NATO Summit the 75th Anniversary there’s some big decisions uh and big talks to happen around Ukraine around uh funding whether labor can you know come up with the money to meet a sort of 2.5% of GDP uh Target there’s Gaza rumbling along of course uh that you know the what’s going to happen with uh with China and how the UK deals with that the special relationship obviously but I think there is a an ideological soulmate in Joe Biden the big question of course is if Joe Biden doesn’t win or or isn’t running and it ends up being a trump second term how is K sta going to deal with that okay Dan thank you very much indeed well in a moment we will get the final thoughts of our panel but before that let’s take a few moments to look back on what has been quite a night everyone in the whole country frankly is waiting with baed breath the exit pole is here it is predicting a labor Landslide a labor majority of 170 that is a simply astonishing result this is a historic win from where labor was at the last election the opportunity to serve the British people and to bring about that change that they’re desperate for would be an absolute privilege for me but I’m not counting my chickens it looks like it’s been a catastrophic night for your party you have to brace yourself for the most horrible defeats that is just a huge victory for Kier starma that exit pole that is beyond the wildest dreams of [Music] Reform the race is on in the Northeast where being the first seat to declare has become the matter of pride bridet May philipson has been duly elected the first of what will no doubt be many labor victories Ian slavery duly [Applause] elected the liberal Democrats are on for our best results for over a century Edward Jonathan Davey is duly elected but Nigel Paul farage is duly elected as the Member of Parliament for the Clon constituency something very fundamental is happening this is without question the proudest day of my life I do hereby declare that the said Jeremy Corbin is duly elected to serve as a member of parliament Bristol you made history today but John Grady is elected to serve the uned member for vad it looks as if labor has also won its first election in a long time in Scotland the first ITV News forecast shows an even bigger labor Landslide than the exit pole I hereby declare that KIA stalmer has been dearly elected this is our first site of the Prime Minister this morning he did tell some of those close to him he feared losing his count I’ve been honored to represent you in Parliament which has come to an end for the time being it’s not the outcome we wanted but clearly the people have spoken across the country good luck to all of you in particularly Alanda I hearby declare that rishy sunak is duly elected there is much to learn and reflect on and I take responsibility for the loss I should just say before we do that that labor have officially won the election I think I’m right in hearing that that they have officially gone to 326 we did [Applause] it he did it that is true let’s come May the night has flown by has been quiet a night um it’s been amazing to be here final thought not necessarily in order but in rough Direction Nicola can I ask you just a piece of information uh another Tory figure to lose the leader of the Scottish conservative party has lost the S SMP uh of course he resigned as leader of the T party during the election some thoughts on on Scotland you know bad night for the SNP you know the S&P suffered I guess from a sort of double incumbency problem you know we’ve suffered from the unpopularity of the Tories people voted labor to get the Tories out but we’ve also suffered from being an incumbent government ourselves so as I’ve said on a couple of occasions there’s lots of reflection for the SNP I think the S&P can rebuild from this and you know compete to win in 2026 but we’ve got to learn the right lessons UK wide you know I won’t repeat everything that’s been said I think one of the big strategic decisions for Kier starmer is how he deals with Naj faraj and reform you know if labor like the Tories have continued to appease farage and take the debate or allow the debate to be taken onto his ground then reform the danger is reform just get stronger and stronger um so this is a moment I think labor Kier starmer should stand up and take them on take farage on and start to deal with the underlying problems that are perhaps driving voters into the arms of farage George well you know this is the third time in my adult lifetime there’s been a change of party and government it’s a huge moment and uh it’s a massive labor win one of the biggest swings in our Democratic history and I don’t think you take that away from K St or Rachel Reeves you know they took the party from its worst defeat 5 years ago under Jeremy Corbin since the second world war to this incredible win they played it safe and that’s paid off for them but it’s come at a price which is they’ve got a very low share of the vote they’ve got no particular mandate for change just people didn’t like the Tories and they’ve got everything to do and everything to prove now in the weeks and months ahead and and you know we’ve seen unbelievable volatility and anti-incumbency uh mood out there and the conservatives you know have been the victims of that this looks like the worst result for the conservatives in the modern democratic age since the great Reform Act of 1832 gave working people the vote and there’s no way of dressing it up as anything other than disastrous lots of cabinet ministers have lost their seats lots of people I know who were good local MPS have lost their seats and there’s going to be a battle for the soul of the Tory party do you do you turn right to the kind of lure the flame of farage and he was quite chilling in his victory speech saying I’m coming after everyone at the next election uh or do you try and get the center ground back off Sarma and I would strongly recommend the L okay well I agree with a lot of what George has said there for me it’s been an unbelievable night I I just if you you I just didn’t believe we would do as well as we’ve done so I’m exhilarated by that um you know I can remember 1997 and waking up in the morning and feels a little bit like that but I think the way you deal with farage and I think with some of these issues is you have to rebuild trust with the British people in politics and so it’s as much about how we govern as what we do and I think the how we govern with honesty and integrity is absolutely key I hope you feel that not just for the labor party but for all of us who are passionate about British politics Rob I mean it is the most uh significant uh election result of my professional lifetime an extraordinary night um it’s been characterized by the kind of rejection of the conservative party that if you know you know none of us around this table I think ever expected to see um you know a share of the vote of you know just over 22% that’s never happened they’ve never had less than 30% of the vote so there’s a huge task for the conservative party to work out who and what it is um n faraj has been we all have to agree whether we love him or hate him one of the most significant figures in British politics of the last 20 odd years and he’s now in Parliament and then finally you know you know if you put together all the MPS elected um there is a majority for the left of center if you put if you add the greens the libdems with labor and it will be interesting to see how Kia scarm governs on that basis okay it’s going to have to be very brief I’m afraid because we’re almost handing over to g&b 30 seconds each on where we are I think the UK was on the track of increasing fragmentation and moving away for the two major parties we’re back there again so we deviated from that in 2017 and 2019 I think this is the lowest two party share we’ve ever seen almost definitely the lowest if not almost the lowest turnout we’ve ever seen so this really is a rejection of the two major parties but with this phenomenal majority for labor I’ll be very brief Tom this is going to be in my mind anyway forever remembered as the vote seats election yeah so that oh I love it we’ve given it a name the vot more votes than lib Dems 15 times fewer seats we’re not going to hear niga far shut up about that for a long time okay now if you happen to start watching us at 9:50 p.m. and you’re still here I congratulate you and thank you for seeing through uh what has been an absolutely fascinating gripping and dare I say occasionally entertaining night it has been quite remarkable I think all you can say is what a night massive labor majority but not on a huge vote share uh terrible result for the Tories which ended up being not quite as bad as we expected that’s all we have time for I hand you over to gmbb thank thanks Tom you join us as Britain wakes up to e