Labour on course for biggest majority of any party for 200 years – YouGov projection

Join Sky News’ Sam Coates and Sophy Ridge as they unveil and dissect the final Sky News/YouGov MRP poll results ahead of the general election on July 4.

Labour is on course for a landslide victory in Thursday’s election with a 212-seat majority, according to YouGov’s final MRP poll.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party is set for 431 seats, beating the 419 won in 1997 and the highest number in its history.

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[Music] it’s 5:00 I’m Mark Austin this is the newsour 60 Minutes of news analysis and interviews We Begin right now with the top stories this hour well on the eve of polling day the third and final yugov MRP poll that we’re covering here on Sky News has just been released labor could have the biggest majority for a single party since get this 8 1832 I’m Sophie Ridge live in Westminster our Deputy political editor Sam coats is here with me there is loads of data dropping right now and we will take you through it all also ahead on the newsour the party leaders make a final plea for votes on the last day of campaigning Biden on the edge as pressure grows the White House denies a report that the president is weighing up whether to stay in the race hurricane Barrel barrels towards Jamaica after battering in the East Caribbean the ex dup leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to face trial over 18 sex offense allegations and Mark Cavendish Sprints to a record-breaking 35th stage win at the tour to [Music] France first this evening let’s take you straight to Westminster for those findings of that yugov MRP Poll for Sky News here’s Sophie Ridge and our Deputy political editor Sam coats mark thank you so much uh well here we are it’s the moment it’s time now for Sky news’s third and final poll based projection by yugov of this election campaign and I don’t want to delay any longer because we can now reveal that based on this data here we go labor is on course for a landslide majority tomorrow with a majority of get this 22 seats now that would be the biggest majority for any single party since 1832 it would break a series of electoral records so that there the 22 seats that’s the main headline but there is loads more data that is being released right now that our Deputy political editor at Sam coats has been going through uh all the data you can take us through the key headlines because Sam that is the number that the conservatives did not want to see on the eve of polling day that’s right safie this is it2 12 seats majority that is the projection that yugar are making about Thursday’s general election and as Sophie says we are on course to break so many records if this projection turns out to be anything like the result that we get on Friday morning when the votes have been counted it’s bigger this majority than anything we’ve seen in this century and in the last century you have to go back to the 19th century to see anything like this before and it suggests that number suggests that Richie T gamble has failed the super majority argument has failed look at the history here you have to go back to 1832 uh when there was a majority of 224 uh the conservatives weren’t even in existence you had the wig party and the Prime Minister was the earl gray look at more recent comparisons this is where uh this projected majority would fit Kama uh in 2024 with 212 now at more recent precedents exactly a 100 years ago there was a conservative majority under Stanley baldwood of 210 the the massive Blair majorities really these are the majorities huge Landslide majorities of our lifetime Sophie uh 179 167 in 1997 and 2001 nothing like uh the 212 that we could see uh on Friday morning uh and then uh what in 1895 of 153 so you can see the scale of the majority uh compared to history when it comes to comparing it against single party uh victories in elections let’s go through the numbers in some detail right let’s look at the next slide now it’s important to say this is a projection and with any projection particularly importantly on the one on the eve of a poll there’s a range of uncertainty there’s a margin of error so the projection Central projection is 212 seats of the for the majority that could be it could under these numbers with this mergin error mean a majority of something as large as 282 seats which would be extraordinary but it could mean a majority as little as 132 seats now I say the words as little as that is still a stoning majority that would give sakir starma complete Command of the House of Commons and seemed unimaginable in 2020 when he became uh leader uh it has to be said that there are about 89 seats that are very close to call so bear that in mind there is quite a lot of uncertainty uh in this project ection but all of it all of it even the least optimistic end for labor is a pretty good result for k starma and a disaster uh for that man there richy sunak right let’s look at the next slide and this tells you what the House of Commons is going to look like and I have to say there are lots more records being broken labor would be on 431 seats that’s the biggest in their history uh it’s up 202 since Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbin fought out the 2019 general election let’s look at another record being broken this man richy sunak will have taken the conservatives down to 102 seats again that is the lowest on record below the previous quite considerably below the previous Tory low which came when John Major fought the 1997 election and look they’ve lost 263 seats compared to 2019 uh when Boris Johnson and uh Jeremy Corin fought that election pretty bad night uh for John swinny of the S SMP they would go down to 18 seats which is down uh down 30 from 2019 look at there’s a new high for the greens they double their seats to two uh up one uh from uh 2019 let me give you some more records look at this one of the big faces of the campaign sir Edward Davy and wow up 61 seats to 72 that is by m recking about double the wildest dreams of this man uh last September when he held his party conference so an incredible result for Ed Davey lots of nerves in the lib Dems about this figure uh but clearly you go doubling down and they think a incredible night for the lib Dems it would easily take them back to being the third biggest party of British politics and this man another person who has been a face of the campaign Nigel farage now he would get three seats and that would mean Nigel farage being elected uh it would mean Richard Ty being elected and it would mean the great Yama seat going to reform it’s a new party it’s hard for new parties to make any progress at all so he will be pretty pleased just winning his CLA and seat right let’s look at some of the numbers uh that uh underly this and here they are uh oh in fact this is the range this is the uncertainty that I was talking about except in terms of seats so K dama could have 466 seats at the upper end 391 at the lower and look at this at the worst end of the projection within the margin of error of you G’s projection the Tories under richy s could get down into double digits 78 seats uh so you can see just how much uncertainty there is but it could be even worse than we’re saying uh the S&P could go down to eight could be as high as 34 you can see the greens getting up to four seats let’s just look over the other side so we can see how they do uh Ed Davy could be as high as 87 could be as low as 57 either way that’s record-breaking for that man Nigel farage between n and 14 although three seats is their Central uh projection right let’s look at the next slide uh and you can see uh some of the uh impacts of the campaign now we’ve done these polling projections for you all the way through the campaign in order to find out how the campaign has changed the way that people have voted because richy cak took a gamble he early election has it worked I mean goodness look at this this is the number of seats that uh the conservatives have dropped just in the course of this election 38 uh have gone up nine the lib Dems have done very well they’ve G up 24 S&P up one uh and reform up three so those are the changes since the start of the election campaign and you can see basically this election campaign with D-Day with the gambling Scandal has been a disaster for rishy sudak right let’s look at the next slide and here it comes there you have the opening conclusions you have the highest number of seats for the conservatives since records begun for the LA since records begun the lowest number of seats for the conservatives since records begun 212 majority is the central projection by yugov for Thursday’s general election you have to go back into the 19th century to the great Reform Act uh in order to uh in order to find anything uh as big as that and I just want to give you one more uh little bit of data uh before we pause um look at this all of that majority that incredible record breaking feat for the labor party is all happening on the labor party coming in at under 40% of the votes uh there you can see they do have an advantage over the conservatives conservatives actually have CL back a tiny bit since the start of the campaign they’re on 22 uh% uh but that is really fascinating the main parties actually the proportion of people voting for them is right down and you do have effectively uh people voting in all the right places in order to give labor that incredible number of seats uh and that is some of the maths underlying uh this election and I just give you one more thing look at this remember Ed Davy has seats in the 60s njel verage has three yet only 12% of the vote uh is going to Liberal Democrats and 15% of the vote is going to reform and that means that the quirks of our electoral system first P the post doesn’t mean that the proportion of people that vote turns out in the proportion of seats that you get it’s a qu system both these men actually want to change it uh but you can see it’s an ususual election it’ll confound political scientists uh and yugov are calling the House of Commons as a decisive majority for this man based on these numbers that don’t actually show the labor party that high a share of the vote well we talking to you go in just a moment who are really I guess kind of sticking their neck out with these projections but a couple of things uh Sam I guess my first first thought on this extraordinary results it’s been quite consistent for labor throughout this election campaign and that I guess is going to concern the conservative party who are going to be looking for you know the only poll that matters is the one that happens on polling day um but the leads have been very consistent the MRP projections which feel quite new and fresh for this election cycle have been pretty consistent in projecting these huge stoning labor majorities that’s right the conservatives have tried tactic after tactic after tactic to shake things up there were big bold promises in the manifesto in order to try and attract people back to the Tories like national service and all sorts of tax breaks uh they have tried to make people nervous about the impact of a labor government you’ll notice all of the most recent warnings that President Putin in Russia might favor a labor Victory uh there were warnings over tax uh that in the end taxes will go up under a labor government none of them none of them have made a difference labor have run a very cautious campaign by contrast and you saw their numbers go up and the Tory numbers drop right down now I’m very aware that we’ve been throwing an awful lot of numbers at you so I just want to throw you a few headlines just kind of recap if you like to take a breath and to uh show the central messages from this MP so as Sam has just been explaining uh we are predicting through yugar the biggest single party majority since 1832 which that wasn’t before the conserv party even existed just to put that in context labor expected to have a whopping 431 seats uh the highest uh total ever under K starma the conservatives would be collapsing in this projection to their worse uh ever result even worse than 1997 16 cabinet ministers uh defeated including Jeremy Hunt and Grant shaps as well one quick thought from you s because I do want to bring in um you guys Patrick English it feels to me like the conservatives I don’t know what you think have becoming increasingly jittery towards the end of this campaign about what is happening with the Liv DMS it feels like losing seats to labor was slightly baked in but it’s the kind of seats in the blue wall and the Southwest that could kind of tip this into one of their worst ever results the conservatives always knew that labor was going to run a cautious campaign but I think what has shocked them has been both what the liberal Democrats have done uh Ed Davy over there not on a water slide this time and also reform the big gamble by going early was to wrong foot reform while reform look under these results to have wrong-footed the Tories and the liberal Democrats while I’ve heard Tory campaign figures saying look he’s done a good job he’s done a job a good job of catching people’s eyes uh catching voter’s eye the voting eye and uh having simple single messages about social care NHS and reform and that has all drained support yet further away from an election where the single driving Factor appears to be Sophie people wanting to get rid of the Tories in enormous numbers in whatever way they can to give you that 212 majority for labor we’re going to have more from Sam uh later but just to kind of recap it has been an extraordinary campaign and this I’ve got to say is an extraordinary projection if it’s right we are on the cusp of a truly historic election result a record-breaking election result one that could potentially go down in history now the man I have to hate to say this Patrick you Go’s director at political analytics Patrick English you’re sticking your neck out here because if this happens it would be truly astonishing it certainly would be and we’ve spoken to almost 48,000 people in fact we’ve spoken to around 150,000 people over the course of the campaign to produce our three MRP estimates of what we think the House of Commons will look like after polling day and this is our final call I think it’s been quite stable really we’ve been quite surprised in a way that our first MP projection showed a similar result to this one between three and two we’ve seen an increase for labor of six seats a decrease for the conservatives of six but overall the story has remained consistent and as you guys have been touching on it’s not just about these two men or these two parties it’s about the liberal Democrats it’s about reform UK it’s about the greens the conservative vote the 2019 Coalition which propelled Boris Johnson to that majority is fragmenting and is fragmenting in all kinds of different directions and that’s how we get to this result with labor on under 40% of the vote but sweeping through the House of Commons how much should we trust the MP because it feels quite new lots of people listening be what on Earth is an MP to start off with and we’ve been very careful and you’ve been very careful to say that these are Central projections as a margin of error it could be less it could be more how much should we trust the central projection absolutely this is a huge change election and we used MRP successfully in 2017 to correctly anticipate that Theresa May will lose her majority but there we were talking about changes of 30 40 seats what we’re seeing before us now is something which has never happened in British political history and there are no guides really for us to to look toward to see what kind of election result we should expect so we are in a realm of great uncertainty we believe and we think that by speaking to 48,000 voters by using these Advanced statistical techniques that we can get the closest that we possibly can given the data we have to how this will fall out but of course it’s polling is subject to margins of error and we think anything could be possible in terms of something which looks a lot like 1997 to an even bigger labor figure so other pulsers as well beyond what we’re saying and we think that is very possible too there is even a scenario in the projections that we’ve put out today where this man Davy is leader of the opposition that could happen the second biggest party what you’re saying is lib’s getting more seats than the conservatives it’s it’s within the intervals of what we’ve published today I have to say you know you’re saying that look we could see 1997 majority or even bigger I mean it feels crazy that you’re even saying that because I guess you know K St and the guy behind you he’ bit your hand off for a 97 majority at the beginning of the campaign he would have the worst result since 1935 is what labor suffered in 2019 in one electoral cycle we think if this does happen tomorrow they’re going to go from that to a record-breaking majority it is unprecedented and that’s why there’s so much uncertainty and that’s why we’re so Keen to express a lot of things could happen we have our Central estimates and of course going to be judged by those but we must say there’s a lot of uncertainty a lot of things could happen there’s still 89 seats that we’re projecting with a margin of less than 5% so statistically they could go either way so a lot is still happening I guess my other kind of thought is the projections are that K stama is on course for a record-breaking majority the most successful ever labor leader how much do you feel that that result is about I guess a kind of positive vote for the labor party or actually just a determination from voters to get rid of the conservatives however the best route to doing that is all the data we study and all the conversations we have with the public suggest is very much the latter and that is why I think we see such a fragmentation of votes going to all different parties 15% for reform UK Ed Davy on Democrats on 72 seats it’s about voters really calling time on the conservatives after 14 years and calling time on this conservative government some of them are going to labor someone to live down some to reform and it depends really geographically we’re seeing a lot of tactical voting a lot of Labor supporters potentially lending their votes to Liberal Democrats to defeat the conservatives in the south in the Midlands we’re seeing a really high voter efficiency for labor so the British public it seems have made up their mind they want rid of the conservatives it’s not so much of their thrilled with the Alternatives K’s ratings and labor ratings are quite average but they are Miles better than the conservatives and the British voters have quite simply decided that they’ve had enough of him and just a quick thought from you on the Scottish national party because your projecting it should be said you know it’s almost like we’re kind of forgetting about this story amidst the decimation of the conservative party but you’re projecting a bad night for the S&P we are yes we believe that they will be below 20 seats we think that Labour will return to be the largest party in Scotland again and that is size Bic that is something which we’ve sort of seen coming a little bit in some of the projections that we’ve seen in some of the results that we’ve been looking at at sort of councils up in Scotland but it would be a momentous occasion really for the labor party something for Anna Sawa to celebrate for K to celebrate and as you say kind of get lost in the headline story but again Scotland has the highest concentration of marginal seats of any area in the country it’s really difficult to predict so many constituencies up there decided by mere hundreds of votes so our intervals for the S&P for instance are anything from 8 to 34 so they could well still remain the largest party in Scotland after tomorrow but we think our Central estimate is that that will change and labor will take that mantle again yeah well um I applaud you for sticking your neck out this close to an ction you know it’s not easy to uh not easy to do so close to the election campaign how confident are you I’m fairly confident but anything can happen yeah it’s true and you’ve been very careful in saying that there’re sort of central estimates and of course people’s views can change I’m I’m always fascinated by the number of people who said they just make their mind up just in the polling Booth as well right absolutely there’s a lot of uncertainty still out there a lot of Voters still to make up their minds Patrick Eng thank you so much and thanks as well for you know having all of these MPS with us here on Sky News throughout the absolutely fascinating stuff so Patrick there talking through some of the data he felt he looked pretty confident didn’t he of course really emphasizing the margin of error but what it does look like is that the labor party is on track for a record-breaking majority or if not a record breaking majority the kind of majority that K St will slip in his back pocket and say thank you very much that’ll do me nicely for the next five years that’s right Sophie look Richi Su that bet the farm when he called that early election towards the end of May let’s be honest you go for betting the farm as well with extraordinary record-breaking figures like that 212 uh majority and it matters to them matters to them commercially apart from anything else they’ve got to get it right or nearly right so it’s a big moment for them as well it already been reaction to this figure I have to say I’m not going to take any phone calls this time uh but uh one Tory candidate has just said um that actually they think it could be even worse they say I’ll bite your hand off for that result so they’ll bite their hand off for for that result the worst ever conservative party result there are some fears there are some fears that it’ll be even worse than that I know people who are advising the Tory campaign who think that it will be a double- digigit number of conservative MPS returned that’s within yar’s uh margin of error it could go down to the late’ 70s but my goodness if it’s even worse than this uh we are in an extinct level uh event I think we can now look at some faces uh because uh polling politics is is about people I’m going to step out so you can have a look at all of the let’s uh let’s look at this enormous sweep uh there are 160 cabinet ministers who are standing this election because remember quite a lot of them like Michael G standing down 16 standing cabinet ministers projected to lose their seat I want you to look at all of these faces because you might not be seeing them in the front line of British politics uh for much longer uh Michelle Donan she’s a new one in this polling projection she’s projected to lead to the libdems by SC seven points she’s the science secretary Esther McVey uh Minister for common sense uh she uh could lose by Five Points this name here my goodness Richard Holden is the conservative party chairman he was a North East MP he actually did a chicken run as it’s known he transferred seats uh down to Essex to bason and big biller Ricky he could lose to reform Lucy Fraser the culture secretary Michael tomson one of the immigration ministers who sits in Parliament and look at this still there with an almost impregnable Advantage for the libs Jeremy Hunt the chancellor he’s projected to lose by 23 points there seems very little chance this man uh will be returning nor this man Grant chaps he’s going to lose to labor if anything like this turns out to be true on Election Day defense secretary welln Hatfield Jillian Keegan the education secretary Mark Harper uh the transport secretary lead ship Contender just like Grant shaps Penny bant she could lose in Portsmouth North to labor by six points look at this Alex chalk could lose to the Dems by 35 points in chelham the chief whip who would be key in ensuring some kind of discipline in a new Parliament well he won’t be there if the nationalists in Wales pleed cumy uh defeat him by nine points the wal secretary would be out in Wales the working pension secretary a familiar face on our screens because he’s on the Telly almost every every other day because I’m told not every cabinet minister wants to do uh Broad interviews to defend the government Johnny Mercer the veterans Minister and Victoria Apprentice who rishy sunak saw just yesterday in bambery she could lose to labor by seven points she said it was still looking okay on the doorstep this doesn’t look so much so you look at all these faces because you might not be seeing them for that much longer right let’s look at the next uh slide and these are the well-known conservatives who could go and I want you to draw your attention to this man Craig Williams you’ve been hearing about him he was tired with the gambling Scandal he admitted putting a bet on the election date just days before it was called Steve Baker well he was talking to safie just a few days ago throwing his hat on the ring and complaining about the campaign no wonder he’s complaining he could lose to labor by 23 points in Wickham Robert jri another leadership Contender he could be out Miriam Kate another one she could be out Jacob Reese MOG a familiar face on the Telly as well as a former cabinet minister and in Duncan Smith in chingford he could be out to labor Chris Phil Greg Karen Bradley and theres coffee all of them look like they could be out of parliament despite standing again in this election look at these guys they could be gone as quickly as Friday now let’s look at the next slide and here we have the map look at the map from 2019 an extraordinary result for British politics an ex extraordinary result for Boris Johnson blue blue blue blue blue all the way down including in the Southeast and what once was the red wall all of that won by the conservatives with the S&P utterly dominant in Scotland Now using the magic of Technology let’s see what the uh MRP the polling projection looks like completely different the darker the color the more likely to win but you can see the red wall is back labor is back in Scotland across the central belt uh the liberal Democrats are back in the southwest uh and really the what you can see is the Tory party is squeezed to just the South um uh Southern England Eastern England and uh some parts of uh the the basically Southeast and a bit of uh Central England uh and the home counties and that is it it’s a huge change uh Sophie and I think that you just look at that map everybody thought that Boris Johnson could be in for a decade it was a mountain of a result that labor had to climb to overturn but they look as if they’re on the precipice of doing it you just looking at this map s but there’s something that I guess I’ve just been thinking about kind of playing over my mind a little bit recently because you can you can see it played out here the red wall rebuilt and it does feel like this campaign and really the last kind of year or so the conservatives have been desperately focusing on this group of Voters Shoring up the red wall trying to keep hold of them but by doing that have they lost the blue wall have they let the LI Dems back in have they let you know labor back in in some of these commut Bel towns if they almost I guess by kind of gambling on trying to hang on to the red as much as possible they’ve lost some of their core votes Boris Johnson put all of his Firepower trying to keep those votes that he won for the first time in this part of the country but look at it that’s not happening I think you’re right I think that was at the expense of traditional Tory heartlands that turned but now they’ve lost both of them look I think there’s one big picture that we need to take away in decades gone past people voted for a political party and stuck with that party for decades what is quite clear from this is that that era is over people thought that Boris Johnson’s majority of 80 was impregnable that’s wrong we’re heading to break all the records on Thursday if this uh polling projection is anything like right so a records will be broken but does that guarantee k starm or a second term if this is the first one well politics looks like it’s these days built on San with sand castles and what is built could be washed away very very quickly yeah cuz I guess this is the other thing as well isn’t it because if you look at this and you look at the signs of the majority that we’re pro projecting 22 record-breaking as you say you would think that that is it you know K sto is going to be master of all his surveys is there I guess any concern at all and it feels almost ridiculous to be saying this on the kind of Eve of a election result that might produce this but is there any concern that you know his support might be wide but shallow well here we have a result 212 majority for kmer if this projection is right but remember my favorite fact of this campaign they could be on course to get this result with 51% of the public thinking saying to yugov that they think K starma could be a bad prime minister half the public don’t think he’s any good and yet we’re going to break all records highest number of Labor seats lowest number of Tory seats the largest majority since the early 19th century since the great re since only beaten once since the great Reform Act and they still didn’t like him that much my goodness politics is fascinating it really is H Sam thank you so much for sharing all these numbers with us and for taking us through all of these projections as Sam was saying fascinating stuff because here we are on the eve of an election that by all accounts is going to be historic it is going to be record-breaking that is it from us for now I’ll be back here on Sky News at 7.m for the politics Hub where we’re going to have lots more reaction to that poll on a busy evening for the party leaders on the eve of polling day we’ll see you then for now though back to you mark yeah extraordinary stuff Sophie Sam thank you very much indeed so exactly 6 weeks after uh the Prime Minister announced the date of the general election the final day of campaigning is coming to an end Party leaders have been making a last Dash across the UK in a push to get people out to vote Rishi sunak visited Primary School in Hampshire alongside Caroline noes the Conservative candidate for romsey and Southampton North Mr sunak has insisted he was still fighting hard for votes after Mel stride a loyal cabinet Ally said labor was likely to win the largest majority any party had ever achieved no every vote matters tomorrow just 130,000 people could change the outcome of this election that’s what the latest analysis shows so if people want lower taxes they want their pensions protected and they want to prevent a labor super majority there’s there only one thing to do tomorrow and that’s to vote conservative what Mel was doing was pointing out the dangers of a labor government with an unchecked majority a blank check to do what they want and that means people’s taxes are going to go up it means they’re going to pay tax on the state pension for the first time in our country’s history it means we’ll make no progress on migration so if you don’t want those things to happen if you want your taxes cut and our borders secure and your pension protected then you’ve got to vote conservative to make those things happen and prevent that labor super majority well kiss has been rallying support for labor in South Wales telling supporters his party was not getting complacent we are fighting for every vote and across the country there will be constituencies which will go down to the wire and therefore we will continue to fight until 10:00 tomorrow night making the case that change only happens if you vote for it but it is a huge opportunity for our country this is the opportunity to turn the page and to move forward the liberal Democrats campaign has mainly been the leader SED Davy performing stunt after stunt in an effort to uh get attention today was no different really climbing aboard a tractor in chiam s ed claimed that the Liv Dems would seow a brighter future for the country building a caring nation and moving on from the chaos of the Tories he said I think people want to move on from Boris Johnson and Liz truss and Rishi sunak and all the damage they’ve done to our country and they want to know what you’re going to do the future how you going to change our country particularly how you going to sort out NHS and care and that’s what liberal Democrats are talking about we want to make sure we build a caring Nation where the importance of social care and family carers is is really at the front so we can both give them the support they need but also transform our NHS at the same time by investing in care and that’s what people want to hear about not the failure of the past under the conservatives now to other news and the former dup leader s Jeffy Donaldson and his wife lady Ellena will face a crown court trial over historical sex allegations the pair appeared at Nuri magistrates court for a committal hearing this morning our senior Ireland correspondent David bevens was there so Jeffrey Donaldson faces one kind of rip four of gross indecency and 133 of indecent assault a total of 18 charges his wife lady elanar Donaldson faces five charges including aiding and abetting the number of charges faced by each of the accused increased following a review of The Evidence by the public prosecution service for Northern Ireland during a hearing that lasted less than 4 minutes this morning a lawyer for the public prosecution service said they believe there was a case to answer and defense teams offered no counterargument at this time uh Sir Jeffrey who’s not 61 dressed in a navy suit and sporting a new beard and his 58-year-old wife lady elanar wearing a cream suit were separated in the dock by prison staff they stood very briefly during the hearing simply to confirm their names their dates of birth and that they understood the charges against them asked if they had anything they wanted to say during this hearing he replied not at this stage and she simply replied no the district judge Iman King Ed that he was satisfied there was a prim aasia case to answer and having set September 10th as the date for an arraignment hearing when they’re likely to have to enter pleas he released the couple on continuing bail so Jeffrey Donaldson who was Northern Ireland’s longest serving MP resigned as the leader of the democratic unionist party back in April and was suspended from its membership he’s not a candidate in tomorrow’s gen election from the outset he has said he will strenuously contest all of the charges David Levin’s there the Democrat supporting New York Times is reporting this evening that President Biden has told a key Ally he’s weighing up whether to continue in the presidential race the White House has flatly denied the claims but after Mr Biden’s disastrous performance in last week’s televised debate the first elected Democrat has now called on the 81y old to withdraw the Democratic Congressman Lloyd dogget issued a statement uh and uh that is what he said recognizing that unlike Trump President Biden’s first commitment has always been to our country not himself I hopeful that he will make uh the painful and difficult decision to withdraw I respect respectfully rather call on him to do so let’s go uh live to Washington and our us correspondent James Matthews so this is interesting in the New York Times James essenti saying that Biden is weighing up whether to stay in the race yeah hi Mark um he realizes that he is in trouble what he has told this unnamed Ally apparently is that he recognizes the next few days are critical the next few engagements are pivotal in terms of his future he has an interview on Friday uh with a US TV network extended interview long overdue in the mind of many who have said that he should have been out there taking questions from journalists in the six days since the debate indeed there has been growing anger in Democratic ranks uh that the aftermath of the debate has been more damaging than the debate itself because we have seen a president insulated from the media at large he has made public appearances but these have been stag managed to within an inch of his life you know a president by teleprompter not taking any questions from journalist so that grilling that he’s uh due to be subjected to on Friday uh very important as our campaign visits to uh Virginia and or Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and he’s told this Ally that the you know he recognizes the importance and that should they go badly he may not be able to salvage his electoral chances voters the voice of the voters will be key in all of this and there’s more bad news today for Biden I can tell you the Puck News website it’s got hold of a a democratic polling that indicates that states Battleground states that Biden previously had in his pocket are now in play uh now Within Reach of Donald Trump in the wake of that excruciating TV debate so the voter’s voice will be Central to the considerations in particular and of course it’s not just Biden it is House Representatives people in the Senate from the Democratic Party who are looking to their president to deliver victory for them they see weakness they have not seen the kind of reassurance they’ve been after that leads them to believe he’s fit for the job and leads them to believe that they will win their own electoral races so there is a hard conversation growing calls Mark and not just in public but also certainly privately uh expressing deep concern about the future of Joe Biden now clearly recognized by the man man himself a sense really of deepening crisis uh and serious questions around his future it’s the 4th of July weekend this weekend so perhaps we won’t see anything for the next two three days but as polls begin to come in and as we see his performance in public over the next few days then um that may well be the test of how long he continues in post yeah the next week will be very interesting James thank you very much indeed hurcan Barrel is due to make landfall in Jamaica this evening the category 4 storm has already killed at Le at least six people in the Southeastern Caribbean causing Devastation on the islands it’s already passed through and uh we can be joined now I think by Martha Kelner who is in uh Jamaica and uh Martha um well these are very dangerous winds being predicted it looks like it could make a direct hit on Jamaica very shortly yeah we’re still around 2 and a half hours away from this hurricane properly hitting Mark as a result the winds have not really picked up significantly yet but you can uh see behind me the swelling of this sea has already begun and it’s the water that people are fearing most here a potential uh storm surge of 15 to 20 ft so at least double my height uh and you can imagine uh just how devastating that would be for some of the coastal communities along Jamaica’s South Coast you were mentioning the possibility of a direct hit on Jamaica Jamaica’s not had a direct hit from a hurricane for at least three decades it does look fortunately like the island May escape a direct hit uh direct hits considered when at least half of the storm’s cone passes Overland so it may be fortunate to escape that but even the outer bands of this monster storm could bring with it devastating wind up to around 140 mph and that water that I was mentioning before um I’ve just been in a Coastal Community just west of here a place called uh hellshire Beach many of the people there were planning on waiting out the storm uh until the very last moment they’re worried about leaving uh their shops restaurants homes uh unattended because they’re worried about potential looting so that’s something that they’re having to weigh up but they’re scared uh nervous a lot of their families younger children uh and women have already evacuated to some of the emergency evacuation shelters on higher land but this is a storm that nobody is taking lightly they’ve watched as it SED Havoc across the Eastern uh Caribbean even in Venezuela uh just over the past 12 to 24 hours no direct hit on Venezuela but still three people died because of the storm surge so uh everyone taking necessary precautions here uh and just waiting to see really what happens hoping uh that hurricane Barrel is not as bad as the experts are predicting okay Martha thank you very much indeed now earlier in the program we showed you pictures of the Prime Minister with Caroline noes who’s standing as a Conservative candidate in romsey and Southampton North and uh because we are obliged to uh under election rules here is a list of all the candidates standing in that constituency you’re watching the NewsHour coming up one final trip to Grimsby and CLE thorps the target towns we’ve been monitoring throughout throughout the election campaign to see what voters think about tomorrow and in sport Andy Murray will team up with Emma ranu in the mix doubles at Wimbledon get the full story first this election on Sky News we have a sensational team lined up for you in our virtual Studio we’re going to bring you all the breaking news we’re not just going to be focusing on Westminster we’re going to look at the whole picture I will be showing you lots of the data the analysis breaking it down Sky News election coverage will go further it will work harder what is our country going to look like after the election of course we’ll bring the facts we’re also going to have some fun seriously people you won’t want to to tune anywhere else you get the full story first on Sky News [Music] I’m Mark Stone and I’m Sky correspondent based here in Washington DC street street well the plan seems to be to head to the police station where the policeman who fired the shots was [Music] based and everything you know his memories is all gone in almost every corner this town has been completely destroyed by the fire I’ve WT witnessed the remarkable passion for politics here but the anger too Trump out of the White House is this the moment to reform gun laws you know it’s it’s easy to go to politics but it’s important it’s at the heart of the issue I I get that that’s where the media likes to go it’s not it’s where many of the people we’ve talked to here like to go I report on the biggest stories from around the world this is a town that is effectively encircled by the Russians you say it’s all fabrication what’s happening in butcher destroyed my nation we take you to the heart of stories that shape our planet I can hear now quite a few explosions uh in the distance here in Jerusalem a very violent series of confrontations here what do you think of Isis everybody here know the truth of Isis [Applause] [Music] [Music] he [Music] [Music] well throughout this election campaign we’ve been reporting from the key constituency of Grimsby and CLE thorps it may be a new seat but it’s right at the heart of the red wall that the conservatives won over to secure the last election and as such it’s high on both labor and Tory Target lists uh National correspondent Tom palman has been speaking to voters there one last time to see whether their opinions have changed over the past 6 weeks it’s been a tough sell this election campaign and with just hours left to decide some just haven’t bought into it my view on it all is that neither party represent like an exciting future and actually to me the two wings of the same plane yeah there’s been a lot of talk about change do you you feel how many years have we heard about change how many years I think we’re stuffed I honestly think we’re screwed Asam he’s a country that’s really struggling I don’t know who can bring it up you need some you need a magician with a W to you know what I mean to turn it around I don’t know where that magician is going to come from you’ve not found that magician in the campaign this this time no no we’ve heard so much of that frustration in both Grimsby and CLE thorps this year these are towns that need an injection of optimism but on the eve of polling day where’s the inspiration George doesn’t see it his family runs flower stalls at markets all over the country do you sense any optimism there’s more worry than there is optimism it’s what’s going to happen if if lab gets in what changes are going to be made is it going to make CU more financially stable is it going to put us further into death when we started focusing on this Battleground constituency back in March we visited the Cobbler Shop last time suzan the seamstress told us it felt like the heart had been ripped out of the country we returned to see how she’s feeling about the future so it’s election Eve have you got a bit of optimism um the only thing we’ve got is that there’s going to be a change For Better or For Worse we don’t know yet but there’s going to be a change so you’ve got to have a bit of Hope and optimism if it is that change what does it look like in your ideal world what’s it need to look like uh well Community they need to put something back into the communities don’t they’re all over all over the country everywhere all shops are closing down and all the rest of it they need to put some money back in and fund everything properly and that way it’ll bring it back up again she is clinging to that last shred of Hope that these towns this country can move Beyond this campaign and into something better Tom palmenter Sky News CLE thorps well while Tom has been in Grimsby and CLE thorps our home editor Jason Farrell has been traveling across Britain with a parliamentary bench offering voters the chance to take a seat and tell us what’s important to them his final stop was at a biker Festival in Stratford Upon a we’ve tested the temperature in Cornwall the direction of travel in Wales the way the wind is blowing in Scotland but in all the characters and opinions we’ve gathered there’s one demographic we nearly missed bikers welcome to the adventure bike rider Festival in warshire Glastonbury on Wheels what matters is that people actually we the manifestos and not just go for the headlines and actually understand what it means and how the parties are actually going to achieve it rather than saying oh we’re going to do this great thing yes have you scrolled through the manifestos I haven’t never mind it was good advice everyone here shares the same passion but when it comes to politics who’s appealing to you uh if I’m brutally honest none of them whatsoever none of them none of them very Ed to spoil my ballot I want to see a change I think 14 years of conservativism I think we all feel the same way I I disagree I’m I’m not trying to change I don’t think the conservatives are conservatives anymore taxes are going up whoever’s in power one conservative message seems to be cutting through not to give labor a thumping majority I think I’m going to vote for conservatives and I think it’s a tactical vote as much as anything because uh I’m concerned about a massive labor majority and uh the implications of that might have I’m probably going to go labor and it’s going to be a tactical vote um just to not be Tor there seems to be a lot of voting against parties fewer people proud to vote for a party uh if I’m actually honest I have already voted and whilst I said I was going to spoil my paper I couldn’t bring myself to actually spoil it did you go Tory I did yeah and I maybe I’m a shy Tory maybe I shouldn’t I think should be shy this will make pollsters shudder how many shy Tories are out there are you ashamed of the toies I’m actually embarrassed about some of the things that our prime ministers have done in the last few years so what have we learned as we’ve dragged our bench across Britain everyone who sat on the bench has been asked the same opening question what matters to you in this election the most common answer the cost of living and one recurring word used by the first and last person to sit on this bench what do you want most in the next government um Integrity I think is the one is the one word answer you can’t trust any of it it’s I just feel that there’s no like a lack of integrity and even when you’re watching the debates it’s like a playground argument and I struggle to take it seriously it’s time to return our bench time for you to decide who gets a go on it next Who’s least likely to mess it [Music] up Jason Farrell Sky News lovely series that from Jason Farrell there right time for the sport with Julia this Sky News sports bulletin is brought to you by Vitality getting more people more active live life with [Applause] [Music] Vitality can you please welcome a man with insights as sharp as a well-time tackle an eight-time Premier League winner an England stalwart for 12 years so what but a Valencia manager for any four months it’s the berry bad boy Gary the treble [Applause] [Music] nille and his opponent he’s a Liverpool Legend oh yeah and a Champions League winner oh best ever it’s the Bruiser from Bole Jamie istan buulai car yes this round is a nine D you’ll both throw nine darts and simply the highest score will win so one Dart nearest the bullseye to decide who goes first oh that’s outside the 25 can you take that one out leave it leave it I’ll be here all day otherwise what you what are you doing that was over the O need to start again no he’s qualified go first he can go first B him honestly go first you’re on you’re first oh God it’s off the board one and 14 is 15 that ain’t going to be good enough my friend oh he played before Oh noal with Dad 24 24 that’s not good enough that honestly I’d like you have the up there I should put you away there four oh 20 treble four it’s 36 so you’re up to 51 why’ you always trible 12 are you still are you still walking back trible five go away go away and a 20 I’ll put you to bed 71 95 Car the treble n put you this Sky News sports bulletin is brought to you by [Applause] Vitality thanks very much indeed let’s have a look at the weather the rather cool and changeable weather will continue over the next few days but there’ll be some drier spells many places fine this evening but there’ll be a scattering of showers especially across Northern Britain parts of Eastern England will be rather dull and damp cloud and any lingering rain there will clear overnight while showers become increasingly confined to the north uh there’ll be heavy in places especially for Western Scotland it’ll be cooler and windier than uh last night Wales and Central and Southern England will be mainly dry tomorrow morning with plenty of sunshine you’re watching the newsour coming up at 6 more on that final Yugo poll of this election campaign which suggests labor are on course for the largest majority since the early 19th century [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] it’s 6 o’ I’m Mark Austin this is the newsour 60 Minutes of news analysis and interviews We Begin right now with the top stories this hour the party leaders make a final plea for votes as a final Poll for Sky News suggests Kia starma will enjoy the biggest majority seen for nearly two