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hello. Today, we will analyze changes in the container shipping market and what impact they will have on the shipbuilding market. The upward trend in shipping freight costs continues in the first half of 2024. Recently, maritime freight rates, especially container carrier freight rates, have been continuously rising, and the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), a representative container freight rate index, was recorded at 3,714.32 on the 28th. Additionally, SCFI has risen for 11 consecutive weeks, reaching the highest level since August 2022, and is soaring more than three times compared to a year ago. As the Red Sea crisis is prolonged due to attacks on civilian ships by Yemeni Houthi rebels triggered by the war between Israel and Palestine, traffic through the Suez Canal is being disrupted. Another shipping corridor, the Panama Canal, is currently experiencing bottlenecks due to the drought. Due to the drought, the number of vessels that can pass has decreased, with only 32 vessels passing on average per day. The Panama Canal Authority predicts that drought conditions will continue and that restrictions on shipping will remain in place for at least 10 months. As a result, upward pressure on logistics costs is expected to continue. Another factor in rising shipping costs is the impact of the port union’s strike. As of June 21, 2024, labor union strikes continue at major European ports. Dock workers belonging to "Ver.di", Germany’s representative labor union, began a strike on June 17 in five major German ports, starting with Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Bremen, Brake, and Emden. As a result, unloading operations at the port have been temporarily halted and logistics delays are occurring. During the port union strike, container unloading times were extended at major ports, export container loading became difficult, and waiting times at port terminals were significantly extended. As container carriers, such as Maersk and CMA CGM, were unable to transport cargo during the strike period, they charged container storage costs for storing cargo in containers until the cargo could be transported again and additional costs for detouring to other locations, raising the overall freight rate. It is inevitable that will rise. This phenomenon can be said to be similar to when the logistics crisis occurred in 2022. At that time, container cargo was piling up in ports and could no longer be processed, and as the waiting time for container carriers at ports increased, the demand for ships to transport cargo soared, and shipping costs also skyrocketed. As the global shopping season approaches in the second half of 2024, companies that need to deliver goods are experiencing increasing demand for ships to quickly deliver cargo, which is also a factor in increasing freight costs. Due to the recent rise in shipping costs, the stock prices of related shipping companies are also rising. In the case of HMM, according to the Korea Exchange on the 28th, trading closed at 19,630 won, up 3.26% from the previous trading day. As you can see from the chart in the video, stock prices continue to rise in the first half of the year. In the case of Korea Shipping, according to the Korea Exchange on the 28th, trading closed at 2,895 won, up 21.13% from the previous trading day. As you can see from the chart in the video, stock prices are showing a significant rise in the first half of the year. Let’s take a look at how rising sea freight costs affect the ship ordering market. As mentioned earlier, when maritime logistics is not smooth due to various factors, the demand for ships increases and the movement to secure ships accelerates. This phenomenon can be seen in the price changes of used ships. Looking at the used ship price trend in the video, the current price level for container carriers is similar to or higher than the used ship level in 2022. 2022 is a time when container freight costs are high, so the current price situation is similar to then. The rise in container freight rates is due to an increase in orders for ships to replace old ships as shipping companies improve their financial situation. From the shipyard’s perspective, ship freight costs were expected to fall as the delivery volume of ships ordered before 2022 increased, and it was expected that ship orders from container carriers would slow down. However, as orders for ship replacement increase due to rising shipping costs, it is a good opportunity for shipyards to receive new orders. In the case of crude oil carriers, the price of used ships is rapidly approaching a situation similar to that of container carriers. It is believed that the causes of the increase in maritime freight rates mentioned above are the low ordering of new oil tankers and the global energy development craze, resulting in a shortage of crude oil carriers. As mentioned in several videos, I think a new normal has arrived in the shipbuilding market, which is different from the existing shipbuilding cycle. Lack of shipbuilding slots and demand for eco-friendly ship replacement (carbon reduction) are driving the existing ship ordering cycle into a different pattern. It is not easy to plan to order ships by period. This is because construction slots at shipyards are almost full, and this period continues for a long period of time, making it difficult to secure ships at the desired time. The goal for carbon reduction is strong, and we have realized that operating existing ships will not benefit the company’s profits. The fact that market conditions for ordering and building ships are developing favorably for shipyards is expected to have a positive effect on shipyards. If you have any questions about ships, marine-related industries and technologies, please visit the cafe below and we believe you will be able to receive a lot of information and help. thank you