Daniel Foubert, a political analyst based in Warsaw, explains the latest political developments in Poland: “The most important thing to remember from the European Parliament elections in Poland is that the leading figures on the list were not elected. They were selected by Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of former Polish governing party PiS.”
welcome to Rick’s Europe my name is Peter klepper and today I have as my guest Daniel fuber who’s a political analyst based in waro so welcome Daniel hello so uh what I want to discuss with you um is the political situation in Poland uh where Donald Tusk sort of the you know Centrist politician took over uh recently I think at the end of uh 202 23 and sort of purched the national TV and everything got rid of all the remnants of the the the former governing party Bish that has been accused of undermining the rule of law both by domestic protesters and and the EU I mean we just saw a European election European Parliament election result where um the fish party was not uh not doing very well so uh what’s next for Polish politics well well good question um obviously the European election was a success for uh for Donald Tusk uh he got 38% of the vote uh which is much better that his result in in the general election during the the autum he got only 31% and uh he had to form a government Coalition with the very uncomfortable Coalition with the left and with the centralist party which is much more conservative and um they’re having frictions now but uh people because people were still afraid of Donal Tusk um they remembered the the high unemployment rate um during the beginning of the 2010s and um and also um well his prussi policies peace uh attacked uh Donal Tusk a lot on this so he didn’t have the confidence uh of the of the polls and now he got 38% and uh he his Coalition Partners got almost destroyed they got wrecked uh the the center got 7% of the vote instead of 60% 16% and the left uh got to something like six four no 4% instead of six uh so so that’s the the the big uh that’s what peace failed uh peace got 36% the first um um the first polls that appeared were not were not right so it wasn’t the the disaster we thought it it was but uh um but the the fact that uh all these attacks on peace and uh pce P the the criticism of of Donald to didn’t work is is absolutely disastrous uh it it’s disastrous for for peace they conducted a a campaign that was really um really strange they don’t have any ideas it’s it’s like the end of a cycle uh kachinski is still in power he he’s very old and the the the the the funniest thing about all of this the the most important news about about peace is that um the the heads the how to say the number ones on the list for the European election didn’t get elected because they were chosen by C these were people who just the peace electorate doesn’t want anymore for instance yet kski with who was the president of TVP TVP the the public broadcaster and uh what people don’t like uh they didn’t like his authoritative approach and his um his stupid stupid propaganda they all say this even in peace they everyone agrees it was a mistake it was the biggest mistake and who does Kinski uh send to the European Parliament people like this so uh so there is going to be um there’s going to be a problem for peace if they want to to to win the next presidential election and uh yeah is there any movement to replace kachinski as the leader no that’s the well there is a we have seen that uh former prime minister norki to he said okay you won’t put your candidates in the the first place there is no problem I will but give me the others and what happened is that people didn’t elect the first the the first uh the head of the list but the people who were under them so okay now we have the PE the Mory people in uh the European Parliament that’s what’s what’s happening but there is no there is no plan Kinski doesn’t plan to leave and because he he never was there actually he always he always was like the the moral Authority the moral the political Authority and I think even he what what would it mean uh if Kinski lives but he he’s not de he just someone people come people come to see him and ask him can you get me uh I would like to do this I I can you get me this job and and he’s like um well it’s a very strange system yes like a clientelist system almost you could say so and and what about on loyalty what about uh the governing uh party or let’s say the line of the government so the pish party they were Euros skeptic in the sense that they would not introduce the Euro which I personally think is a is a wise decision but then if you look at domestic economic policies in Poland apart from the rule of law problems like the propaganda from the TV Etc um you know if you’re looking at the economic policies of peace that that was not rightwing they seem to be quite on the left spending money um is there any big change now with Tusk or or or not there is no big change and that’s why uh why he succeeded uh there is no real criticism of economic policies um and that he’s not doing anything different than P actually he got he he actually recycled a lot of ideas he is continuing uh the infrastructure project he he’s likely to announce that he will build the the the big um central Communication bort which is a big airport in the middle of p and Railway Hub um he wasn’t clear about this he wasn’t clear about this and P criticized that and finally he’s going to do it so they have nothing apart from the destruction of Institutions there’s nothing really really wrong with what he’s doing that’s big problem for peace um maybe one more topic uh Russia so Poland has been uh overseeing a massive search in defense spending which is probably a good uh a good thing given how uh you know dangerous Russia has become I mean could you tell a bit more about that yes it’s massive but unrealistic uh they wanted to find 300,000 professional soldiers uh that’s something you can’t find uh they wanted to in the draft agreements the the framework agreements they plan to buy a thousand tanks from South Korea um this would increase Poland’s uh Poland’s debt to GDP by something like 30% so yes yes yes yes it’s expenses are are increasing Donald to continues um but it’s um for now it just they actually they’re just waiting to see what happens I think they’re they’re slowly buying more equipment increasing uh the the the expenses and uh but we we everyone is just looking at what what will happen because and the analysts um even NATO analysts aren’t very clear about this one day you hear that uh Ukraine Russia is going to invade Poland in two yearsa in four years and they and the other day you hear that Russians will never take Kaki for instance well what is this all about but but uh we should buy all these tanks yes okay okay interesting so you think sometimes there’s a bit of a sales pitch involved for military uh Lobby purposes when doesn’t uh doesn’t it happen who doesn’t want to send so the PO have to take a a rational look at at this of course they have to to increase the the uh their um military expenses but rationally not sure thousand ttimes two times bigger Army right good well that’s very interesting thank you very much Danielle fuber thanks to you
11 Comments
Currupt polititians everywhere– Bryssel´s are full of them..
Unfortunately few first minutes of this video already disappointed me. Peter, in your questions there were false statements included.
Difference of votes between PiS and KO (Tusk party) was LESS THAN 1% (36,16% vs 37,06%). So please stop repeating false news of a huge Tusk victory.
Second issue is repeating accusations regarding rule of law under PiS. EU funds were blocked for us because of that and problem was simply "solved" by Tusk becoming PM. Legislative mess that PiS promised to finish when starting to rule but only increased now is increased even more by the current government. On the level of EU this is no longer a problem since pro EU party is ruling.
I must admit that Daniel tried to do a good job in describing reality here in Poland and give an honest feedback despite hmm linguistical difficulties he was encountering.
This is not the end and the right wing has weakened only temporarily because the Polish middle class is constantly getting richer and that is why certain social changes are visible. This change is only temporary because Tusk is a weak ruler and Tusk copies most of the mistakes of Western countries so this trend will not last longer as soon as crime among immigrants increases, the country's debt increases etc. the trend will turn away from Tusk. Leftist radical ideas are devastating European societies and this is visible in demographics, the increase in crime, mental problems among young people, women who do not want to have children etc. etc.
This time, only right-wing forces will come from the West because the middle class in Poland will probably get richer in the coming years and that is the only reason why Poland is on a slightly different trend than Western countries where the trend is reversing because it is the poorer middle class and the liberal elites who are losing their social contract and there is an increasing rebellion.
Kaczyński himself requires a generational change, but the right wing will be exist and will return.
These elections were not Tusk's success because the only people from whom Tusk took away electorate were his coalition partners, while PiS increased its support, as well as Confederation, which is actually a real party of liberal conservatives.
If you comment on Polish politics in the West you should learn basic definitions about Polish politics. PiS is really a party of left-wing economic views and conservatives worldview but also referring to the multinational First Polish Republic and in reality it was never anti-emigrant, only anti-uncontrolled migration , Confederation is economic liberals with a conservative worldview, Tusk's PO is really an opportunistic party without any real views and where the main goal is always to stay in power , the Left in Poland is a party representing the old communists from the PRL sexual minorities and crazy feminists who are unhappy with being women and that biology has equipped them with a womb to bear children
In reality, Tusk has not achieved any success because Poland is still divided evenly in half and these election results show that there has been no electorate flow and the division has become stronger in result Tusk politics . The fact that the scales have also tilted a little in Tusk's favor is also not a great merit Tusk but rather Putin's merit because many Poles are looking for some hope for stabilization in the EU, etc., because of the war.
Konfederacja in Poland, on the other hand, only gains because of its liberal economic views because Tusk increased the deficit more than the most leftist economic party in Poland, which was PiS and also because they want to fight against the leftist madness of the EU such as the Green Deal or uncontrolled migration etc.
When we talk about conservatism you confuse Western conservatism in the West, which comes from Protestantism, with Catholic conservatism. Conservatism itself, which comes from the Catholic religion, which promotes a merciful God, and combining it with economic Darwinism if it comes to the logic itself, then the worldview is not logically consistent and in reality, PiS in Poland is more logic with own worldview, recognizing as conservatives some social sensitivity. You have to decide whether you believe in the existence of a merciful God who reaches out even to those at the bottom or in darwinism :)))
Tusk has not achieved any success and the problem of the Polish political scene is not only Kaczyński but also Tusk and the entire old political class