Do you accept defeat in the middle of a campaign?

Former Labour adviser Ayesha Hazarika joins Sky News political editor Beth Rigby and Conservative peer Ruth Davidson as the general election campaign heads towards its final fortnight. 
  
They’re assessing whether Labour can shake off the questions about its taxation policies. 
  
As Conservative Grant Shapps seemed to accept election defeat in an interview, is that something anyone should do in the middle of the campaign? 
  
They discuss the “what ifs” of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage as he tries to become an MP. 
  
And as the SNP launch their manifesto, how is the election shaping up differently in Scotland? 
  
Plus, Beth, Ruth and Ayesha tackle listeners’ questions on manifesto promises and Reform UK’s unusual set-up. 
  
Email Beth, Ruth, and Margaret at electoraldysfunction@sky.uk (https://sky.uk) , post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444. 
  
In this episode, we mention the Clacton-on-Sea constituency, the full list of candidates are:   
  
Bensilum, Matthew (Liberal Democrats) 
  
Farage, Nigel Paul (Reform UK) 
  
Jamieson, Craig (Climate Party) 
  
Mack, Tony (Independent) 
  
Osben, Natasha (Green Party) 
  
Owusu-Nepaul, Jovan (Labour Party) 
  
Papanastasiou, Tasos (Heritage Party) 
  
Pemberton, Andrew (UKIP – NO to Illegal Immigration) 
  
Watling, Giles Francis (Conservative Party) 

are we all ready all right should we [Music] go hello and welcome to Tuesday’s electoral dysfunction I’m back home after a whirlwind of a week on The Campaign Ruth where are you I am home and you and I are are both a little bit subpar aren’t we we’re not 100% but for very different reasons cuz you’ve been working very hard and I have actually like had some socializing which I mean I don’t know what I was thinking of I used to be fun in my 20s I’m not fun in my 40s I had fun this weekend and I’m really struggling because of it we been on a two-day Bender I mean I can’t do anymore like I can’t well so Ruth you’re at home Aisha where are you I am in beautiful Scotland I was in dunde on Saturday and then I’ve been through with my parents in East rener in Newton Mar just in the outskirts of Glasgow so I’ve been doing some door knocking which has been really interesting and yeah I’m going to be heading through to co Bridge because of course I’ve just become baroness haar of Co Bridge so I’m going to be heading through to co bridge to do some door knocking as well to test the temperature test the temp and did we all watch the football me and I used to have different football to watch we we had quite different experiences uh about the so I was flying up to um abedine and Dandee on Friday night just as the football was starting and as the plane was just about to take off the guy next to me started swearing like really like Father Jack started swearing and he turned around to me he went oh my God I’m so sorry Matt I’m so sorry for that Outburst I’ve just seen the score and at that point it was 3:0 and then when we landed he turned on his phone and I can’t even repair I mean I heard swear words I’ve never even heard before coming out of this guy’s mouth let’s crack on we’ve got about fortnite of campaigning to go we’ll look at how labor and the conservatives approaching things can labor shake off questions about tax Rises are the Tories changing tactics to keep up with reform and with both both of you lovely ladies in Scotland I want to know what the mood is like as the S&P launched their Manifesto this week and Nigel frage is also launching he’s not called it a Manifesto because he says people don’t believe them he’s called it a contract and we’re going to answer a batch of your questions later on we’ve been getting lots so we’ll go through a few more remember you can always email us on electoral dysfunction at sky. or get us on the burner phone 07934 20000 triple 4 okay let’s crack on we have just over a fortnite of campaigning to go I did text Chris Mason on Friday and said Chris we are over the hump it’s hump day is passed there is a dip though I I’ve always thought of elections are 2 two and two so your first two weeks it’s exciting an elections been cold like you’re out doing everything the middle two weeks are a grim like they’re hard that’s when the colds hit that’s when you start getting like campaign Sniffles the whole lot and then the last two weeks you suddenly realize oh my god there there’s only two weeks to go that’s not enough time I can’t get to everything and then and then it’s over and then it’s over in a blink of an eye it’s over it has felt very strange this election partly because of the the surprise that came when when when he announced it so nobody was ready nobody was ready across any political party uh a lot of us commentators journalists you know nobody was ready for this so I feel like it’s been weird because normally you kind of know when an election is coming you’re kind of gearing up for it so the first week first 10 days of this election just felt like it was kind of scramble stations where people were still trying to get selected and lots of the parties didn’t have their candidates in place and you know everybody was frantically pulling a grid together to to to try and get things done and I feel like last week was a bit more exciting because of course we had a couple of really good events your event in Grimsby and then the seven-way debate and then the manifestos but it has felt like this election campaign even though it was a surprise it feels like it’s been going on for about 8 years and it has not felt it’s not felt that energized and maybe that’s because the poll lead is so big for labor maybe it’s because you know everybody feels you know I know not hard any votes been cast but it feels like a forgo conclusion but what’s been interesting about I think the last week is it’s felt interesting because of really what’s happening with reform and even the manifestos haven’t been that exciting do you know what I mean it’s not interesting cuz the two leaders are boring like they they kind of they want to be boring they’re using boring as as a good thing in that after like all of the excitement of the policy positions of Corbin and his General outlook on you know geopolitics starmer’s you know something that’s not going to scare the Tory swing voters that labor needs to win because of like boris’s you know anacronismo his behavior and party gate and all the rest of it you know have rishy who’s boring and managerial was something that the Tories look to be a benefit but it doesn’t make for fun campaigns I wonder though as well that is it’s part of this about when the election was first called it felt like the conservatives had surprised everyone label were ready to go but it was a surprise so they had a sort of advantage in controlling the date and surprising people and then there was an expectation I think from all of us actually in Westminster whether rightly or wrongly that the polls would inevitably narrow because that’s typically what would happen and then kind of the tenor of the campaign and particularly the D-Day problem is kind of it hasn’t shifted the dial and so the Jeopardy is you know you were saying Ruth the Jeopardy in all of it really has become the rise of Reform that’s been the kind of uh Dynamic story in the election and maybe it doesn’t feel as excited although I’m massively excited about it but that’s useful because otherwise you know my job wouldn’t be much fun would it I mean I guess the question is as well that aish let’s go to you first what do you think about turn out do you think labor worried about apathy in this election I think labor is just focused on getting over the line and winning and winning big but I think individual MPS and individual sort of Labor strategists are a bit worried about that and certainly when I’ve been out and about this weekend in Scotland particularly when I was in Dundee going around chatting to people do you know the overriding theme and I must have spoken to God you know about 50 60 people was apathy like real real apathy the number of people who almost had a script they were almost singing from the same H sheet and that was I feel really disillusioned with politics right now I don’t really know who to vote for I might not even vote at all a lot of people said that they might not even bother going quite a few people said that they would go and spoil that ballot paper and a lot of people said look I do want a change and I probably will vote for a change but I don’t think whoever comes the next is capable of making my life any better so I think that is the thing that all politics is up against right now and I think that labor is conscious of that not so much about the sort of turnout but more that kind of feeling of despondency and the fact that we’re not you know if Liber wins it’s not like there’s going to be a humble grateful public who are like oh thank you so much for for winning we’re just so pleased that um You’ve Won there’s going to be Street parties across the country because you know the public are impatient they’re demanding they’re quite transactional now and they they basically like what are you going to do for me and that’s where a lot of people don’t feel that anybody can really change their lives but the lack of belief Aisha I I think is partly down to the party’s offerings themselves and and I’ve said before you know labor instead of doing the Hy changy thing which is what like the Obama campaign always called their thing like hope and change they’ve gone heavy on change but actually haven’t gone at all on hope they haven’t really been doing the you know things can only get better they’ve done the well things can’t get much worse I mean the tenor of the campaign has not been there’s going to be a revolution some like a big change is coming we’re going to wash away all of the things that make you think that Britain is broken or that things don’t work as well or that your life is you know is struggling they’ve been deliberately under selling the the type of change that can occur for me and I get why I mean I understand the idea that you you under promise and overd deliver but but I do think there was a slight trick missed in terms of being able to tell a kind of national story about the future of like what Britain would look like 5 years around with the labor government and here’s here’s your hope as well as your change you know what I mean yeah I mean I when I at the manifesto launched last week I put it to starma that this was for all of the change that he rhetorically was talking about when I hear him talk about change what I hear is the word patience and the reason I say that is I can see that they are talking about changing the government changing the people who run the country but when you actually look at the knuts and bolts of what that change means it sort of means give us some time to try and rebuild the economy so that then we can change your lives and I said to him you’re like Captain caution and he I mean he swatted me off like an irritating fly that’s fine but I do think the argument stands that this sort of this is not a radical plan for Britain is it and maybe that’s why people don’t feel that inspired I think the the difficulty for where karma is and where the labor party is there’s a couple of things first of all I think we just have to remember historically this country does not like voting in labor prime ministers in the last 100 years only four labor prime ministers have ever been elected there been six labor prime ministers in total only four of them been elected I think as well because of what’s gone before in the country and in the party revolution has been promised and not delivered so for example Corbin promised the world you know when you look back at that 2019 Manifesto it was like a free-for-all everybody could have everything they wanted I think they lbed in kind of free Broadband in the middle of the the campaign and all the was women going to get all their money I mean it it was it was very revolutionary and the public ultimately rejected it we also had brexit which was meant to be this big moment of Revolution the country was rising up everything was going to change for the better we were going to have this amazing country afterwards that has not happened so I think the labor strategy understandably has been we are not going to do this kind of false promise of Revolution because it has not gone very well and people aren’t stupid I mean someone said to me over the weekend I don’t think K starma is that exciting at all but quite frankly and my mortgage has just gone up I’m really stressed out about my life I wouldn’t mind a bit of you know boringness if it just means my life gets back on track and I can just me and my family can afford a nice holiday once a year and we can afford our car insurance and you know we’re not stressing about our bills every month so I think that you know I am understand that’s why they’re doing this but I also do understand all of this doesn’t Quicken the pulse as it looks like they are Marching to power people are now really really testing them on policies and the plans and uh the front of the mail is has labor let the cat out of the bag on tax and that’s based on the West Street in Sunday round where he sort of intimated that we’re not going to right future budgets in a Manifesto now and it just fed into actually the line that starma has had which is there are no plans but there is wiggle room there do you think that this could be an effective attack line Ruth for the conservatives in the last two weeks of the campaign I can see two attack lines coming from them they’ll raise your taxes it’s what they’ve been trying but it feels like it’s getting steam Laura cburg was asking them all about the council tax abandon that we’ done on Wednesday night so it’s the tax stuff and then of course the you know vote reform get labor Ruth how worried should the labor be on this this could have worked for the Tories if they hadn’t flubbed the launch so this all comes back to what you’ve said about the idea that everyone assumed that the polls would tighten and they haven’t and and part of that is because there was a catastrophic launch in the peeing rain that everybody saw it then followed up with 2 three 4 days of really roping campaigning before they had to do a reset and if you had seen if we had seen a tightening of the polls early on the pressure that would have been put on labor during the course of this campaign would have been a lot lot stronger and things like tax which is something that the Tories have been hammering from the beginning you know if if there’s going to be a labor government start saving all that sort of stuff like it’s not a bad line but the reason that when ster has been doing the rounds West streeting has been doing the rounds Emily thornbury’s been doing the rounds all the people have been doing the rounds they haven’t been pressed on but because there’s not been that tightening actually this has been a bit of a scoo of a campaign from labor they’ve been disciplined they’ve been impressively disciplined but they haven’t had the sort of pressure that that previous labor campaigns have been put under because actually the Tories haven’t done it so it’s it’s sort of Tor failing that they’ve not landed this line even though it’s the best line they’ve got left I she you’re nod in there do you think that labor could raise some more taxation later this year when they get in and they lift the Bonnet up and they look at public spending well they’ve definitely got an AR which is they don’t really know what’s going on until they get in there I know that you know they access talks and this is when a prospective government gets in to sit down with with the Civil Service they were sort of making some progress with that and I spoke to some senior advisor some treasury advisers who were saying look that you know from the talks we’ve had so far the numbers are looking pretty bad so they they have got that as a legitimate excuse there’s there’s two lines of attack from the media and the government which is as you see you’re not very exciting where’s the Hy changy bit and the second thing is taxes now no party is ever going to do a repeat of read my lips no new taxes right because they can’t because you cannot see that over the next 5 years you’re going to predict what’s going to happen and you can never ever raise taxes but I think the reason why this attack line is not working and as Ruth said it’s not a bad a attack line and and having fought many election campaigns and lost with the labor party before fiscal responsibility has always been a massive Achilles heel for us right always been a big issue but I think the three things I think which are hurting the the conservative attack line is number one they have put taxes up themselves number two they issued these quite shunky figures and you’ve got all these official people saying be very weary about these statistics you’ve even got The Spectator which is the Bible of the conservative party saying Guys these figures are shunky the third aspect is why this is not Landing is because of Rachel Reeves Rachel Reeves has done so much heavy lifting on all the economic stuff you know she has drilled into every single Shadow Minister from the cabinet level Shadow cabinet down to Junior ministers that nobody is making a penny of spending commitments CU she does not want to have to raise taxes so I just think for all those reasons it this tax thing yes I understand people are always kind of worried about sort of taxes but it’s just not Landing when I ask them questions and they say we’re not going to cut Public Services we’re not raising anything beyond the specific taxes that we’ve already announced and allocated the money and we’re going to stick within the borrowing limits of the conservatives I’m like all of those three things together are not possible because it doesn’t add it doesn’t add up and I I think people and I’m sure our listeners can see that as well that if you are saying I’m K starm and there’s no austerity and we’re not going to cut Public Services they’re going to have to find some option right and the only other option in the short term will be taxes cuz growth you have to wait for yeah you you do have to wait for growth and and again you know I have I’ve put this to to labor colleagues and this has come up but one thing you did miss out was any more borrowing but the point is is that Rachel Reeves is stuck she’s sticking to the borrowing rules you see that Beth you fing fingers at me we’re doing a full penny more than I’m going to start start screaming taxes at both of you now so fiscal rules are in the gift of the chancellor basically to to tweak and there is always a bit of wriggle room with fiscal rules okay so Rachel re comes in she’s not doing a budget straight away she will do some sort of budget you know I would imagine like four five months down the the track so I just think there could be that could be an area where you see a tiny bit of rle room one of the things I’d be getting to look at is because these boring rules that you talk about Beth and that you often hear being talked about on the news they are made up by the chancellor of the day these are not written in stone they’re not laws they’re not passed by parliament like these are self-imposed disciplines that a government tells to the money markets The Wider business Community to allow for confidence in the United Kingdom and if you can prove yourself in these ways you get lower rates when you do borrow you get access to liquidity you get all of these different things so they they have a purpose but they’re not actually a a a thing they’re not a hard and fast thing and if I was in the treasury team one of the things I would start to look at is right what are my self-imposed restrictions around increasing borrowing going to be so for example we have heard previous chancellors and previous Prime Ministers talking about things like we will only borrow to invest which will result in in further growth now you’re not supposed to invest in much that doesn’t give you any less than4 back for every pound you put in so if on your Ledger you can look at what something gets back you can borrow against your future earnings as a country because the thing that you’re doing is going to increase the growth is going to increase the returns so if I was in Rachel Reeves team this would be the sort of thing that I’d be looking at and I guess the question in this is so as Ruth was saying the reason that governments put in strict borrowers especially if your labor and in the past business has been a bit more nervous about a labor government in terms of economic stability uh you put this into give reassurance see a lot of people wrongly think that Rachel ree’s just going to say this uh no taxes and then she’s going to get into the treasury and sudden the mask is going to come off and she’s going to be haha I’m going to raise taxes I really do not think she is going to to do that a for the reasons you see because it would look it would be a terrible look for the public but also it’s just not where Rachel ree’s thinking is right now by the way there are other people in the labor party who would like her to put taxes up but she is very much holding her own line but also let’s not forget the other thing that everybody knows about Rachel Reeves if they know anything about her at all which is that she is like a a Schoo girl chess champion this is not going to be Boris Johnson standing up one day and he’s not written a speech and he’s got some stuff written in his napkin and goes I know we’re going to have a garden bridge or I know we’re going to like have a Hort for everybody’s Back Garden or like just making up on the hoof like she is is going to be meticulous we are going to be bored out of our Merry Little Minds before she gets to the point where she changes something like this the pitch will be ruled because she’s not the type that’s just going to like pull a rabbit out of a hat on budget days that that’s not her you sound like you really like Rachel Reeves Ruth I think for an incoming labor Chancellor you need to have a credibility and I think that she has worked very hard she has done the milk rounds in the city I know many people that have been to events that she’s been at from the business Community who might not think that she’s perhaps the best speaker she’s not the most fluent she maybe isn’t doesn’t even have the kind of depth of knowledge and experience that that they think they have but then people in the city love to think that they’re amazing and everybody else is uh particularly politicians but in terms of of like soothing the horses not scaring the horses she she has done a bit of a shift the read my lips Moment by the way is a George Bush line that was from the 1988 Republican convention that’s George Bush Senior read my lips no new taxes and this has been it’s kind of gone into sort of like political folklore hasn’t it read my lips it became one of those phrases that has endured another phrase is the rabbit out the hat right that’s something that you know that’s that’s the sort of torgy which is always used in politics there’s no rabbits out the hat but I’ve been thinking a lot about this phrase the rabbit out the hat with labor and I think the problem for labor is under the corra news there were so many rabbits out of hats it became like sort of waterers ship down that’s why the labor party is quite allergic to the concept of of a rabbit out of a hats just as you talk about waterers ship D have just got like bright eyes like which was like the song and Ro ship which is like don’t ever let your kids watch that now you’ve mentioned brigh eyes I should tell you all that at a big International Event in Japan last year Robert peston and I all the political journalists on the went to karaoke and Robert Pest and I performed Bri eyes and it was wow yeah it was a I don’t know a magic it was a magic moment but we’ve got to move on so we’re going to have to stop listen I no I just want to I just want to add listeners if anybody out there can get hold of this footage and Ruth and I will pay a bounty for this for this footage Beth I I see I see a Christmas number one on the horizon you and Robert P was a beautiful thing can I just say as when when this election is over I hope we are having an electoral dysfunction karaoke night do sugar cube and Edinburgh let’s do it let’s get it booked [Music] while we’ve been chatting Grant shaps has become it looks like the first minister to public acknowledge that toes are unlikely to win the next election he says he’s being realistic he told times Rao it’s possible to win the election do I accept it’s not the most likely outcome yes I accept that I’m a realist uh do we do that mid campaign anyone Ruth um I I have to say I I take a little bit issue with the idea that that’s the first time there’s been an acknowledgement from within the Tory campaign because they’ve literally been running a line that says labor are on course for a super majority the only way to stop a super majority is to please please come back to us and vote for us and don’t vote for reform I’m going to jump in there every time the Prime Minister has asked about the polls or it looks like they’re not going to win he always says the only poll that counts is on July the 4th there is a difference though isn’t there Ruth between intimating it might happen and someone actually saying that you’re going to I mean you never say that do you do you ever say that in a campaign well I I 2016 I mounted an entire campaign on the fact that I wasn’t going to be first Minister and vote for me to be a strong opposition which was it worked for us in the context and we more than doubled our number of seats but to be fair I was coming from third so it’s better than if you’re the actual incumbent I think I guess the question is Ruth for morale for Tory activists and stuff is it a real kick in the guts of your defense secret is going on Tonia probably not going to win this in this campaign I mean the stuff that kicked people in the guts has already happened and and also I’m not sure and no disrespect to gr chaps but I just I just don’t think that that many Tories are going to have looked at the the sort of the The Salted Wells the the smoldering desolation that this entire campaign has been and think that that this moment where Grant chap says do you know what Lads we might not win like that’s going to be the one that’s that’s going to really get us down Ruth what’s going on here is it that actually they are now changing tactics with 2 and a half weeks to go to start warning about uh labor super majority to try and squeeze the reform vote to try and Salvage what they can of the Tory base is this a sort of strategic shift in the campaign now do you think I think it might well be because they’ve had time to test stff they’ve already been running lines about don’t give them a super majority the only thing that reform does is make your starmer prime minister so these lines have already been running this this may well be a pivot to to concede now it may just be that Grant chaps is ill disciplined and said something or gone further than he wanted to but I I do think they need to do something AA do you think that label would be worried about this attack from the conservatives about the super majority and don’t give him unparalleled power I don’t think the labor party is at all quaking in their boots in fact I think the labor party cannot actually believe that Grant shars introduced into the bloodstream of this election campaign the very word labor super majority it was like a shot in the arm of of enthusiasm for labor lab candidates I’ve had Labor candidates from across the country messaging me going we would love a super majority and if this is coming from the mouth of the sort of conservative spokesperson and it proves that we’re on track for something big I mean it is a bit about The Vibes and it is about confidence and if you have got the government who have been the ruling party who’ been in in power for 14 years and they’ve shifted their message around so much and it went from you know these guys are absolutely useless and couldn’t run a weth stall toight oh my goodness they’re going to be this hegemonic super majority is actually given a huge amount of confidence to every aspect of the labor party I think we just have to be honest even though the campaign launch as Ruth said was a disaster and then there was the D-Day disaster I do think even if the conservatives had tried to mount a sort of you know Word Perfect campaign and it had all gone very well and very slickly I think this camp campaign has been over for a long long time people are not thinking about the last 3 4 weeks they’re thinking about the last 14 [Music] years we have the S SMP launching their Manifesto this week they’re launching it on Wednesday I thought it would be a good time to check in on the campaign where you both are so Aisha you’ve been spending the weekend canvasing where are we with labor and Scotland they basically had from 2015 onwards the SNP have just eaten labor for breakfast up in Scotland haven’t they and and they came out of the last election with just one MP they’ve won one back in a byelection how’s it looking for La there Aisha what’s going on well as you see I mean labor has had such a traumatic time in Scotland and I will always remember that night in 2015 it was like watching a sort of political Massacre happen sort of in real time and labor has taken a really long time to recover but things are feeling very different for labor on the doorstep now the other thing just what’s really important to note that in Scotland it’s different from England the labor party and the Tory party are not going up against each other in Scotland there are very few seats which are two-way marginals labor Tory it’s the SNP versus labor or it’s the SNP versus conservative so what I’ve been ing talking to people is that a lot of people who have been SNP supporters and who do want independence two things have happened one they’re fed up with the SNP they don’t think that things are really changing in Scotland they want a change they do want to kick the conservatives out and even though many people still care about independence it’s not their sort of top issue anymore it’s kind of like probably number six or seven down the list so all of this is adding up to I’m not say look people were not like oh my God I love the labor party but people are saying I do want a change I do feel it’s time for a change and Ruth this has been the great battle in Scotland hasn’t it over the past decade well longer than that but a decade on from the Scottish independence referendum what do you think we’re expecting to hear this week from the S&P or Independence or have they parked this uh for the time being no no no I mean the the new leader uh John swinny who’s been in for just a matter of weeks actually before this election was called I said that it will be page one line one of the manifesto will be a commitment to Independence what’s interesting is the most recent poll out in Scotland so that was on Sunday it was in all the Sunday papers has labor on 34 in Scotland the SNP on 30 in Scotland but it also has two other parties so they’re ahead of of the S&P by 4% and that gives them like 25 seats across Scotland a big bounce back but the green party is pro- independence in Scotland and the Alba party is Alex sammon’s party they have 4 and 2% each so actually if you add all that up if if they could have have not had that many split that they’ve got they would be sitting on 36% and that would give the seat projection something very different so it’s tight it’s interesting I I agree with Ruth I think Labour’s going to get around the sort of 20 to 25 seat Mark and remember really helps Kia starma with his majority to to win back those seats in Scotland in terms of the SNP I feel like the SNP has stabilized after a very difficult time people quite like the combination of John swinny Kate Forbes and also Steven Flynn in westmin Steven Flynn is a very good performer so I think even though the SNP will lose support I don’t think there’s going to be another leadership challenge CU I think people are like okay fine fair enough give them a chance and the other thing that your listeners really really need to know is that yes we have this election coming up on July the 4th but that will then kick off a long campaigning period in Scotland for 2026 there are going to be very important Hollywood elections and that’s going to be really interesting because the SNP will then say you if labor wind you’ve got a labor government in Westminster how have they changed your life well look it’s the S&P Manifesto launch on Wednesday so we’re going to hear from the SNP on Sky News now let’s do some questions starting with Andrew who has a question for you to this will be the first time in your adult life I guess that you’re not able to vote how does it feel to be so deeply involved in politics and yet not able to vote so what this is is that peers don’t vote in general elections so these two baronesses that I get the pleasure of hanging out with have been ennobled in the last five years so how does it feel to not be able to vote Ruth rubbish it feels absolutely rubbish I’ve never not voted I voted in every Council by elction I’ve voted every I like I really take it seriously and for those out there that are are wondering it is only in terms of people over the age of 18 it is only members of the House of Lord members of the royal family and prisoners that aren’t allowed to vote so we’re in with some company whoa Aisha how does it feel for you cuz you’ve only just become a baroness it’s been a very recent thing I’m like an infant baroness at the moment um I am gutted for the same reasons as Ruth I love voting I’m one of these people that gets ridiculously excited and very proud of my country in a little bit weepy in a Moosh when I go to a little primary school and get those wee pencils and go I actually feel like it’s the best of Britain and I actually feel like there’s a lot of stuff which is absolutely terrible in this country but we have democracy and it is a great thing but what we are getting from our whips we keep getting these messages just to remind us going you cannot vote you must not vote remember not to vote it’s the opposite of get the vote out messaging that you you normally get right when someone tells me not to do something my massive impulses to go and do the thing you’re like I’m going to go do she keep telling me not to do you do that I’m going to have to be locked into my house someone’s going to have to come and barricade my front door that day oh my God all right uh we’ve got another message here this one’s about Manifesto because we’re still in the middle of the manifesto launches so basically if a party doesn’t win power how much of a Manifesto remains party policy that’s a Rob Aisha do you want to go on that that’s a good one well if a party doesn’t win power then the manifesto becomes completely redundant to of course it does why would you cling to a a vote losing election losing Manifesto I mean there are still people in the labor party going why have we moved away from the 2019 Manifesto because we got spanked that’s why we’ve moved away from the 2019 so I’m afraid if your Manifesto which is your kind of offer to the public if it totally tanks and everybody gives you two fingers then you’ve got to think m maybe uh it’s time to change tag so I’d be a bit more nuanced than Aisha yes you’re not actually held to it but you still also have to have a party policy on X Y and Zed and when you’re in opposition and and if you get beaten at election you usually change your leader and they’ve got their own ideas and they will have policies that have been in their leadership election that then become party policy when they become leader uh but you start changing things out and one of the ways that you can show the country that you’ve changed is you you then do sections of it so you then do a big report into into benefit reform or into like rural Affairs or whatever it is and that that kind of you almost section by section renew until you get closer to another general election okay right we’ve got one more we’ve got Caroline and she’s asked a really good question about reform she wants to know why reform can propose candidates for Parliament when they are set up as a business not a political party Aisha how is reform structure different to the other parties it’s a really interesting question and reform is very different it is basically um a kind of private company and Nigel farage the leader really is the sort of director of this company they didn’t have to have a leadership contest in the way that other political parties done he’s got the controlling stake you know he could fire people like Richard Ty or David bull who are the other kind of Deputy leaders now and the really interesting thing about reform is that because it isn’t traditional political party it doesn’t have to get snarled up in the same process as the other big political parties have to do if they want to do a policy or you know change something in their Manifesto they don’t have to go through committees they don’t have to have intern it’s a bit like in the last sevene debate Nigel farage was asked about the two child cap the policy and clearly just in the moment he just thought yeah I I don’t like that there was no he just made that up on the spot and that’s probably now policy so they have a very different structure but remember this is a vehicle for Nigel farash to get into politics I think he will win that clacton seat I think he will cross the floor at some point and become a conservative MP and that becomes the big political vehicle for him I think he’s going to do a bit of a trump on the conservative party in the way that Trump came in and took over the Republican party and that that’s going to be a discussion I think within the conservative party whoever becomes leader some of them are saying that they would welcome him back others are not if he gets his toe in the door I agree with you Aisha he’s going for full takeover of the Tory party so w really cuz I was going to say over my cold dead corpse no I mean in terms of like I I think the party would be absolutely imbecilic to let somebody who has stood against the party in different Vehicles whether it was for ukip whether it was for reform whose stated aim is to destroy the conservative party who has tried to if not be able to win seats offers then do enough damage so that we didn’t win to let them in in order to mount a full takeover and and be the kind of parasitic worm that takes over its host no no like I think there’ll be a lot of Tories that actually decide to stand and fight but Ruth I think the issue is I think there’s going to be a disconnect I think between the remaining conservative MPS and many of them by the way are the way they’ve selected are a bit more Central interest but there’s going to be a big disconnect between them and the activist base as well so I think that’s where it’s going to get tricky yeah and we will when we lose we’ll go more rightwing and then we’ll lose again and we’ll go more rightwing again because people learn the wrong lessons from defeats and you’ve seen that in labor where you go more left wing and then you go more left wing again I you know that’s tends to be the cycle but there will be a fight for the soul of the Tory party and I think there will be a lot of people that realize that perhaps their wing isn’t in the ascendency but there are Extinction events and something like Nigel farage taking over might be an Extinction event Ruth you don’t think it will happen in the end well I think it’s going to be a fight I think it’ll be a big fight well look we will be of course back on Friday with the next call up from Jess’s Subs bench don’t forget to get in touch and keep those WhatsApp messages coming in get me on the burner phone 07934 20004 email us at electoral dysfunction skype. or you can tweet Me @ Beth rgby thanks for listening and uh we’ll see you on Friday bye bye byebye