Crypto: How to Trade a Crash

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0:00 What will be covered today
1:05 Audience engagement
2:03 Emerging Assets Group $EAG
3:17 Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy thrown out of office
4:41 California Governor Gavin Newsom Signed Bill Banning Hand-Counting Ballots
5:49 Legacy financial markets will check politicians
7:46 What are the events in the market that we can capitalize on this?
8:38 Ray Dalio changes mind from cash is trash to cash is good
11:23 Oil plunges $5 in biggest one-day drop in more than a year
12:03 Republicans begin hunt for new Speaker to replace ousted Kevin McCarthy
13:21 EU estimates Ukraine entitled to €186 billion after accession
14:22 Treasury yields fall back from 16-year high after weak US jobs data
17:45 How To Look Rich
18:11 Spotify pushes into audiobooks in challenge to Amazon’s Audible
19:09 Chief executives really need to lengthen their attention spans
20:23 Joe Biden calls western leaders to reassure allies on Ukraine aid
22:44 Washington infighting puts US support for Ukraine in doubt
24:09 US shale bosses vow to hold back drilling despite rising oil price
25:50 What will happen if the US stops funding Ukraine? Nothing good
26:07 Meta’s $180 million office break fee is well spent
26:22 Goldman is cautious on ‘expensive’ India stocks before pools
26:37 Apple considered, rejected switch to DuckDuckGo from Google
27:41 Ozempic is making people buy less food, Walmart says
28:27 Women are asking for promotions, but men keep getting them
29:34 America’s High EV Costs Are Driving Buyers To Hybrids
30:16 Only a stocks crash can rescue the bond market, Barclays says
31:24 OpenSea makes it easier for anyone to mint NFTs with its ‘no-code hub’
32:01 US crypto legislation could stall amid Republican leadership drama
32:23 A slow year for crypto M&A, fundraising got even slower in Q3
32:28 TV’s Kevin O’Leary: ‘All the crypto cowboys are going to be gone soon’
32:40 Sam Bankman-Fried Lost $500,000 Every Day After Alameda Launched
32:52 Sam Bankman-Fried Invoked Dogecoin and Solana on Day One But Not FTT
33:09 Ripple Wins Court Fight as Judge Rejects SEC Appeal
33:38 Green Party presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West denounces Democratic Party
34:10 Credit-card borrowers experienced 8.9% delinquency rate
34:57 Prepare for a mega crash
36:15 Emerging Assets Group $EAG Fib Retracement 15-minute chart
36:32 What does Emerging Assets Group do?
39:52 Emerging Assets Group $EAG Fib Retracement 15-minute chart
40:38 EAG Fund, EAG Labs, and TCR Initiative
41:59 Ethereum $ETH DeMark daily chart
42:39 Pro-Bitcoin US Congressman Partick McHenry becomes speaker of the House
43:28 S&P 500 $ES1 head and shoulders top daily chart
45:11 Oil $USOIL Hidden Pivot Analysis daily chart
45:53 Dollar Index $DXY quarterly chart
47:44 Ethereum $ETH DeMark daily chart
48:19 Ethereum $ETH DeMark 90-minute chart
48:37 Bitcoin $BTC DeMark 90-minute chart
49:31 Long Bond Futures Contract $ZB Hidden Pivot Analysis daily chart
50:01 Long Bond Interest Rate $US30Y daily chart
52:19 Long Bond Futures Contract $ZB1! Hidden Pivot Analysis 89-minute chart
53:18 Nasdaq $QQQ DeMark daily chart
56:38 Nasdaq $QQQ DeMark weekly chart
57:29 Bitcoin $BTC DeMark 90-minute chart
57:56 Bitcoin $BTC DeMark daily chart
58:20 Where would you buy Bitcoin?
58:30 Bitcoin $BTC Hidden Pivot Analysis death cross daily chart
59:30 Ethereum $ETH Hidden Pivot Analysis daily chart
59:48 What was the signature sign that crash of 2008 has “recovered”?
1:03:14 Market Update Wrap Up
1:05:59 Outro

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Disclaimer: This show does not provide individually tailored investment advice.

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is the market update I’m your host Bill Noble more specifically this is the halftime report of the crash of 2023 where are we in the process stocks bonds crypto how are they connected what you should do next with a particular emphasis on certain trading strategies and ideas for how this is going to unfold obviously there will be more Market updates during October but I want to start introducing a couple ideas on you know on how to trade the crash because as people probably know by now especially looking at Bond markets this is a crash I will help you if you need a road map in crypto subscribe to this channel turn on alert so you know when we’re going live and feel free to hit the like button early and often it helps the channnel and it helps spread the stream around okay Chris K says crash what I miss love it okay actually in some ways man the crash the crash the comprehensive crash hasn’t started yet so let’s welcome who’s on the show right catsman welcome Dead Fred let’s get positive bounces on every chart right let’s Israel what’s up what’s up Malik Aaron s Willam meter right lawn shark is here Sarah Chris again Kim Craig give us the goods probably working the night shift there Dilo forget about it Andre Megan in the house Richard Barry let’s go okay let’s get to the news even though the news is that the market is getting nuked all right Al let’s begin with some of the things from the place where I work at emerging asset Group which has just essentially relaunched one of its primary tokens the symbol is e a we’re going to talk about it now one of the things about eag is that we have a Twitter space we’ve had a Twitter space you know on Mondays for you know a year and one of the things we’ve talked about in that Twitter space frequently if not every time was about the United States being un governable this is the term that I’ve used the United States because it political division is ungovernable and the theme from those Twitter spaces as everybody on the stream knows was that this was eventually gonna have massive impact on financial markets okay and then the real circus started right like for example the Speaker of the House makes a deal to get a budget done a deal is a deal okay eight members of his party get together with all the members of the other party and they humiliate the guy and make him the first guy thrown out of office the first Speaker of the House to literally get booted during his term okay probably humiliating not only Congress but humiliating the speaker party because a lot of people who voted to not throw him out are now turning around and asking for a former president to become speaker of the house because you do not need to be a member of Congress to be speaker of the house this while they have to get another budget deal done in November meanwhile you have and we’ll talk about this you’ve got the administration panicking because now they don’t have the Deep State doesn’t have a blank check to do whatever they want regarding the war and Ukraine and undoubtedly Vladimir Putin is watching all right so are holders of us treasuries this is one of the things that we’ve talked about and this morning we have the governor of California has just signed a bill Banning hand counting ballots in most elections why in other words there’s already aggressive news meaning real coverage in the United States of both parties not wanting to count votes but count ballots for the election we’re running an advertisement that were ungovernable ungovernable and you also on top of that you have a solar eclipse and you have the planet Pluto in a position impacting the United States and the last two times you saw the planet Pluto in this position was the French Revolution and the American Revolution U basically you know maybe every 250 years you see this formation with Pluto so we’re GNA have a revolution we’re already having it and Mr Market is delivering the message and this is what there’s many very old school things about this Market one of the most important things is the Legacy financial markets say what you will about them they’re the ones who are going to check the politicians the politicians are like oh our behavior is unacceptable oh we’re spending too much money oh the stock market’s down the bond Market’s crashing rro we better do something even though the current president is you know is got let’s just say he’s got cognitive problems drone Powell’s gonna pick up the phone and call his office and whoever is running the show there let me tell you something they’re going to do whatever Powell tells them to do but we’re not there yet because believe it or not Powell is actually happy with this price action because the bond market has finally woken up is going to control inflation okay Megan hitting here with a super chat which I deeply appreciate telling one that I’m a hidden gen and that the amount of followers doesn’t always equate to the quality of content you’re the best no Megan you are the best thank you for your viewership and that goes for everybody on the show right and it is kind of funny as an aside my last stream did really it did pretty good right it was like you know does Bitcoin destroy Fiat and it was ironic that I did see a major influencer use almost the exact same title right so you know maybe I’m the influencer that the influencers are watching that’s okay right I’m over myself on the number of followers I have because let’s face it folks this is this is the big this could the biggest move in the history of markets we will talk more about it right Joseph Green good morning from Brazil okay okay so you know Israel wants to know you know what are the events that happen in the market where we can capitalize on this let me give you the short version um you know I still think you can be short Bank stocks okay I still think the Dow Jones Industrial Average along frankly with QQQ but more so like anything that’s not allegedly AI based is in serious trouble right oil cracked everything is cracking one by one and this stock narrative that AI justifies wildly ridiculous valuations ridiculous okay we’re we’re gonna get we’re going to get into all of that we’re going to get into all that um the United States as ungovernable now Ray Doo says this is the head of Bridgewater’s hedge fund Bridgewater is the number one hedge fund in the world certainly over the last couple of months they have just been Unstoppable ye last couple years with like 40% return so not only did Ry put an article out like every time Ray puts an article out the market collapses I mean the guy’s like the guy knows what’s going to happen he knows when it’s going to happen and he kind of warns everybody and kind of shows off and flexes the psychic muscle so four or five days ago before the total collapse of the bond market he put out something that said cash is King now he’s got a follow-up tweet that says my comments over the last month regarding cash now being good have gotten some attention yeah yeah no duh right because everything is crashing and promoted people to ask why I changed my mind for my early 2020 stance what cash is trash well people when they print4 trillion dollars inflation is defined as too many dollars chasing too few goods or too few assets so in 2020 cash was trash because they printed 14 trillion dollar across all central banks okay so Ray was long and everyone was selling and now everyone is long portfolio managers under 40 don’t know what’s going on and Ry has moved to cash which is a nice way of saying that he is short everything you own as in the system the answer is sometimes cash is good and sometimes cash is bad depending on economic and market conditions yeah especially if you have a crash keeping in mind the solar eclipse and related formations are last seen in 1929 in 1987 per work by a guy who wrote a book called The spiral calendar I share a simple way to assess whether or not Bonds and cash are attractive to investors please read this link as I laugh as your assets melt down love hedge fund guys I know Ray’s trying to be nice here but make no mistake about it Ry is gig a short everything and you know what that might actually include the dollar because reason this is the halftime in the crash of all time is because we have not seen which fiat currency totally blows up I think there’s just as good of a likelihood of a dollar down move possibly sending Bitcoin to a friend of mine’s Target at 30k in the short term we’ll go over that okay everyone’s talking about a $100 oil I was talking about $100 oil and the trading group at emerging asset group was like Hey we’re going the other way I was talking to a Trader uh I don’t know literally the top of the market who says I’m putting on a big oil short right and then I showed him a Demar chart of oil Futures with a giant 13 top on a long-term chart and guess what oil crashes to $885 our guys are on it eag has an internal trading unit that fuels to token more on that later okay so Republicans are trying to find a new speaker of the house after the recent clown show one of the reasons why I think somebody would actually want to be speaker of the house is because they’re going to get the distinction of having to do the emergency spending cuts and kind of looking tough like they know what they’re doing now again if they can’t elect the speaker of the house or if they do elect the leader of the legislature of congress with the Mandate of not getting along with the other party I don’t see how that helps treasuries or the dollar in other words normally you put a guy in office who can get deals done who can like make something happen right well if we’re if we’re putting a guy in office to not do a deal right to you know not have some sort of orderly unwind of whatever we’re doing in Ukraine I don’t know I mean it’s not a governable country you know the the the race to fix the election is out we don’t know who the speaker of the house is going to be and the president of the United States has got cognitive problems just just keep selling just keep selling okay okay the EU estimates that you know the Ukraine is entitled to $86 billion dollar okay after it joins the union okay well that assumes that the entire Russian army is not occupying you know half the country my comment about the Ukraine war is uh George fredman has said it best uh the war is actually over everybody lost we lost the ukrainians lost and the Russians lost everyone lost just a question of how much time does it take to admit it now that said expect expect Putin to capitalize on this situation cyber attacks God knows what when you have these crashes and you start showing weakness it’s like it’s like the United States is like a three-legged zebra and the crocodiles are circling I mean this is not over now treasury yields fall back from a 16-year high after a weak us jobs data okay so let’s talk about the bond market and the best thing to say about the bond market is everyone is now talking about the bond market like we were like the bond market the bond market the bond market the bond market nothing survives Thanos is what I call it from The Avengers that when the bond market starts wrecking everything everything gets wrecked ironically crypto was not included in that thank God which is one of the reasons why a couple days ago I decided to follow my boss at eag who is our chief Trader by the way way more on that soon where he was like you know what I I think there’s going to be like a a Detachment from crypto and Legacy because the situation in Legacy is so dire it’s right out of satoshi’s Playbook now back to bonds bonds everyone’s talking about them bonds may actually take a break from crashing because now it may be the equity markets turn right one of the things you have in crash is you rotate right bonds crash everyone talks about bonds then when everyone’s talking about bonds stocks crash then whenever was talking about the stock crash the dollar crashes okay then Bitcoin rallies and then maybe Bitcoin goes down because here’s a hint of what I’m guessing in Bitcoin right let’s say you were black rock and you had to buy an absurd amount of Bitcoin like huge huge what would you do well here’s what I would do and this is sort of a hint as to later what I would do is I would bid I would start to bid Bitcoin up I’d start to buy it now not all of it but I’d start to buy it now then when everybody it’s at 30k I got this from CMO right when when everybody’s at 30k and everyone’s like de crying Bitcoin has permanently decoupled and Legacy will burn then what happens is you have the Giga crash when all the astrology events sort of come together between the 10th and the 18th of October then what you do is you take the Bitcoin you bought at 27 and you start dumping it and you start shorting it trying to press it lower and lower and try to find every single stop because if you got Bitcoin you got got a stock market crash a bom market crash you might as well try to leverage that to try to get everyone to puke Bitcoin I don’t know to 20 or lower try to get try to leverage the crash Chinese character for crisis is a combination of the characters for danger and opportunity you put them together the opportunity for the black rocks of the world that’s going to be to try to buy Bitcoin at an serly low price by pressing it lower while Legacy crashes while that crash comes to a peak for anybody who watches American football like during the third and fourth quarters of the crash so that’s that’s a hint at the possible Bitcoin road map I like this okay how to look rich dress code tips on how to look like a millionaire stealth wealth this is what we’re writing about in the middle of the biggest crash of all time the biggest crash of all time gets bigger when we stop writing about this stuff even though it’s the style page now back to QQQ Spotify pushes into audio books in a challenge to Amazon Amazon challenges Meta Meta challenges chat gbt everybody challenges everybody and guess what there’s a very famous saying about econ omcs about profits from AI right or profits in general right profits are like gravy in the kitchen it’s a southern American term the more gravy in the kitchen the more dogs at the door okay these guys are going to compete with each other this includes Nvidia this includes chips this includes all these tech stocks that are allegedly invincible and safe guess what they’re not they’re not and when one person is trying to eat the other person’s lunch it’s going to spiral it’s going to spiral not to mention the fact that whatever we us retailers are going to have to do you know more on that Carnage later Chief Executives really need to lengthen their attention spans their Horizons are often shorter than the shareholders that they work for now why is this relevant this is relevant because I have some serious concerns about what is going to happen on the US jobs front if you have a stock market crash if you have a stock market down 15 to 20% Chief Executives may start issuing orders to sell you know just lay off 10,000 people just you know just you know have the managers tell you who the star employees are and then fire the managers and then you know fire the bottom five choices that’s what that’s what musk did and that’s what these guys are going to do so the fact that they’re my opic the the fact that this crash is going to catch them off guard it’s halftime in a crash because you’re watching the market update these guys are not watching the market update although I’m sure everybody’s spider sense is tingling point is these guys could let a lot of people go really quickly now back to this President the United States calls on Western leader you know the sort of assure that we’re going to be sending ammo over to whoever is fighting the Russians whether that’s our guys or them I don’t actually know no one really does okay it’s a war that everyone has lost the question is does that war come home to roost we had this humiliating exit for ex from Afghanistan because we B basically quit on the process we pulled out all our troops Taliban took the country one city at a time and then the capital Falls if you think Putin is not going to capitalize or the Chinese on the fact that our government bond market is collapsing because again they’ve sold treasuries the Chinese have sold treasuries everybody is getting out of our bonds so if our bonds spiral out of control and Putin was ever going to hit us with anything or any nefarious actor was going to hit us with anything it would be now that’s why this is the halftime of a crash at the halftime of the crash in 2001 off the dotom you had accounting fraud at Enron and 9911 right so I’m not trying to be like absurdly Grim but I am saying that this is a spiral right in other words I had my book out I don’t have it right now my 1929 crash book like a month ago and people probably thought I was out of my mind it is happening so 401ks things like that you know take Ray Doo’s advice you have to take losses take the losses this is going to get ridiculous right in other words one of the things that people don’t realize right is that even if you know what’s coming it’s still going to scare you it’s still going to be a nightmare you you will be afraid I’m not trying to say that because I want to ruin your morning trying to say that so when it happens you’re like oh yeah I heard about this on Bill’s show and you’ll be less upset and you’ll be able to make better decisions which will be key for crypto no I think the picture is better than the headline Washington INF fighting puts us support for war in doubt uhoh the Deep States got two problems one they’ve got a revolt on their hands because you know people have just finally got fed up there was a story I saw a Tik Tok about a guy in Costco comparing what he was buying at Costco to what he was paying a year ago and he said food inflation is really at 75% not 7% keeping in mind that war is inherently inflationary so how do you stop a 75% on inflation rate well it’s very simple long-term bond yields rise long-term bond prices fall and it takes down equities because rich people borrow money against stocks to pay any price for what they want and these two characters here they’re like uhoh and there’s going to be a lot more uh oh going on okay because these guys are not going to be able to do whatever they want not because the House of Representatives checked them but because Mr Market is going to check them okay us shell bosses vow to hold back drilling despite the rising oil price producers say the war on fossil fuels and wall Street’s insistence on Capital discipline limit expansion you know what folks again Mr Market’s going to teach everybody right it’s G to teach everybody you know if you have oil oil cannot be at $85 and have inflation under control you want inflation under control oil has to be at $35 so at any point we want to start drilling oil or whatever it is we have to do don’t worry Mr Market’s going to teach everybody the meantime oil is probably in the process of a major unwind and a crash in oil was a Hallmark of what started 2008 people have forgotten about this they’re like oh look oil’s down yeah oil’s down soon as I saw oil go down I’m like oh my God bad bad bad bad but but I think one of the reasons why oil went down was because the dollar was too stronger is a relationship between Commodities and the dollar right you know Commodities up dollar down dollar was too strong dxy is unsustainable at 107 unsustainable it will not historically it yeah it has sat up there for a period of months or quarters but really since 1989 the dollar has never really been able to sustain itself above where it is right now okay what will happen if the US funding stops funding Ukraine nothing good okay Russia and China will achieve their goal of splitting the west and these guys have not considered what could happen in markets meta spends $180 million to get out of commercial real estate deals they spent more than that to get out of commercial real estate all over the globe it’s looking pretty smart because again the commercial real estate crash is coming I like this Goldman is cautious on expensive India stock before polls and an election you know what folks nothing is safe nothing is safe now Apple talking about considering something called Duck Duck Go from Google you’ve heard that the Apple CEO sold like $87 Million worth of personal stock right he’s like you know what uh Apple which sells boring techn technology products that people are addicted to is worth more than the entire crypto Market by a long shot it’s worth3 trillion apple is worth3 trillion because people think they’re safe in apple and they’ve parked their money there there is nowhere to go with this crash nowhere which gives short sellers the opportunity to short whenever it’s basically not down or is cracking like Bank stocks so people who think that they’re safe in apple yeah cosmically big picture probably but this is going to touch this is going to touch everybody right everybody I like this OIC is making people buy less food so everybody’s now on a diabetic drug it sucks I can’t take it I’m allergic to it so if you take this drug you’re not hungry and you buy less food so demand for the drug is exploding and I’m sure people are just more than happy to stop their parabolic grocery bill because food inflation food inflation is an underreported phenomenon because of the war because of drought right emerging asset group is also in still in the water business with a water token launch coming probably in the very near future more on America as ungovernable women are asking for promotion men keep getting them okay certain demographics are strongly favored for hiring yet when they get to work I guess they’re still preferring the traditional demographic again all we do is fight with each other we are trying to argue with each other about who should go to what bath room while our enemies circle around us and our markets collapse this BS this BS and all the odd politics around it my prediction is this will disappear after the crash okay this whole like I’m on the far left I’m on the far right okay you have fun with that it’s going to be time for crypto that’s what it’s going to be time for it’s going to be time for crypto not divisive fighting with each other okay High electric vehicle costs are driving buyers to hybrids what what you mean it’s cheaper to use a gasoline vehicle what you mean in order to Power electric vehicles like in Europe they have to build giant coal power plants and rip up the Earth to get the lithium for the batteries huh huh electric vehicles are a scam it’s a scam absolute scam I mean yeah I know Elon Tesla and all that I get it building electric cars is a good thing but this whole thing where they want to force you into electric cars it’s just them trying to take your freedom away now Barkley says only a stock market crash can rescue the bond market okay the FED will remain a net seller of treasuries okay and Japanese investors May favor domestic bonds as yields rise in other words there’s no buyer for our bond market and I saw something yesterday kind of a conspiracy thing that the FED is tightening so hard is Contracting money supply so hard which is why you have to be careful in crypto right you have to be careful that you don’t have this like up down up or this like you know sudden Lurch lower even if it’s a small Lurch right because they’re going to try to buy your Bitcoin the FED is engineering what’s going on here now sometimes I get worried that this all does look like some sort of engineered crash of everything because the real objective of the deep state is to suspend the Constitution like that’s the kind of disorder that you could have here meanwhile on the nft front open C is trying to make it easier to Mint nfts with its no code Hub you know it it is a little Annoying that you know especially with a friend of mine being an artist of what you know that that you really have to have a coder in order to Mint a a project really you can stick stuff up on a wallet but it’ be nice to bring the Art Market back it really would and I love this so meanwhile in crypto as the entire world changes in favor of crypto what are we writing about us crypto legislation could stall a make Republican leadership drama this is what we’re writing about this I love TV’s Kevin o says all the crypto Cowboys are going to be gone soon okay everyone writing about like the S SPF trial SPF lost a half a million dollars every day after Alam launched right I mean let’s let’s write about what happened last year okay S bankman free trial invoked Dogecoin and Salon on day one but not the ftt token what are we talking about in crypto what are we talking about this is what we should be talking about is that Ripple RNs a court fight as judge rejects secd appeal gentler cannot stop crypto they cannot now one more word about politics if I can get to it look at this green party presidential candidate Dr West has denounced what he calls the crypto fascist elements of the democratic party so the left is after the left over crypto C can you believe it okay and breaking news here which feeds into some of the charts that we’re going to talk about credit card borrowers with a credit score between three and 600 experienced an 8.9% delinquency rate of 30 to 60 days in July up from 8% a year earlier can you imagine what the credit card delinquencies are going to look like if there’s an unemployment problem in other words we’re going to have an 8% 30-year mortgage rates you’re paying 30 40% on a credit card excuse me but blank you blank you right you can restructure this or I’m just gonna walk away gen Z has already done it right so that leads us into what we’re going to do because there’s a couple things that are going to happen here so let’s review at the half time of the greatest crash of all time we have okay yields spiraling higher may take a break only because only because stocks have to crash banks credit card stocks some of this stuff could go to zero you had Silicon Valley Bank and all these Banks failing yeah that was not during a crash and do you seriously going to tell me that the interest rate risk management that Silicon Valley and places like that were not able to manage rate risk properly because the FED tighten so fast what are people going to do when this bond market is crashing like you think everyone’s got this bond market like pachy Kean under control Bank of America all these places really or how about the central banks that’s why it’s halftime and that’s why crypto is not down that’s really what we’re here to talk about right crypto is not down why because it’s the halftime of a of like a mega crash this is like the entire system is getting an enema that’s probably 10 years overdue 10 years okay we’re going to be doing everything through live TA today all right emerging asset group what is emerging asset group we’re going to start with this little chart okay this is the 15minute chart of my groups or companies new token now what does emerging asset group do okay the new eag token replacing gold retriever is going to be based on I don’t know it’s going to have two angles as I understand it one it’s going to have a human Trading Group so the title of the stream is how to play crash right how do you play Crash well perhaps you can get money with somebody who can play the crash and the associated reversals in crypto so we have a human Trading Group guys trading currencies bonds stocks crypto and basically what happens with eag the token is as the Traders make money they take the trading profits and use that to help consume the token so the better our guys do at getting on the moves or the bigger the moves there are in the market the higher eag can go so everyone’s like you know I’m talking to people you know like hey man you better adjust the 401K they like what do I adjust it to that’s a good question that’s a good qu what where is a place to hide now eag is not a hedge fund in a traditional sense so I just want to make sure that that’s clear however the term hedge fund came from the idea that big Pension funds and mutual funds used to put money with groups like this right that at the time were much smaller but you’d invest inside of a fund where Traders could use you know humans quantitative systems AI both whatever so that if their mutual funds and their stocks went down the hedge funds would be able to take advantage of the move particularly a down move and given that this is the biggest crash of all time and I don’t know who is going to wind up being safe from this move except maybe Bitcoin when it’s over but it’s probably going to pay Bitcoin a visit too our guys can do it how do I know well because I work with them right we do a Twitter space every Monday me and my boss we do like the market update raw right plus is an internal trading unit that you know they consume my research but you know what frankly these guys so smart they don’t they don’t necessarily need my research and I know they they watch the market update but these guys have their own own system because they were trained by my boss on how to trade so it’s like we’ve rediscovered our core competency the water company which has all kinds of catalyst is going to be a new separate token versus eth this token to replace gldn is pretty simple now a lot of guys a lot of people out there I know a couple of companies that are trying to do these like automated quantitative strategies they’re trying to do the same thing like if the market goes up the quantitative strategy will buy tokens and you know you just buy one token and it automatically tracks the market for you okay a lot of that stuff hasn’t worked and if it does it only works in up markets not in down markets these guys can work in both markets particularly down markets so if you got a token that’s been launched right and is above the 62% retracement okay at 19 cents 19 and a half cents I don’t know man you got some you got a shot at this because who’s gonna get on this crash something somebody’s gonna benefit I think it’s us because we’re already on it I mean my boss was all over this credit card thing way in advance to everybody else I mean way in advance I was like wow you got a short credit card Banks right we had the idea about shorting things like Nike Target our are on it they’re on it so now you can get on it with this new token being out there so again it’s not investment advice okay but there’s another component to this so here’s the eag fund okay and then there’s eag Labs so this is an in an inventive outside the box way of doing Venture Capital without the venture capitalist okay so people in the community that own the token can submit their ideas they get approved right and then the revenue goes into eag and any rewards from the sort of startup style investment go back to the top token holders the people who made the idea and it also gives people inside the community the ability to invest more money in a project that they like or that they came up with so if the fund only has a certain amount of money to go into a project you want to add money to that project you can do that right if three hours Capital has a project you know how as a retail investor can you get in on any Innovation which includes launching new commodity tokens which we still want to do still want to do so this is all a part of the eag Universe how to get on a crash it’s Bitcoin after the convulsion and eag now let’s talk about crypto okay first of all let’s see who’s in the chat okay okay somebody is saying do not buy new tokens all right well just make sure that you’re buying the right new token e a. Network and make sure you’re in our telegram group talking to the correct Nicole okay um about our token now one news article that is coming out and I think this is going to be very relevant for limiting the decline in Bitcoin is that you know Pro Bitcoin is the a pro Bitcoin guy is a temporary speaker of the house okay okay Kim Craig wants to know is eag using AI um not right now I mean obviously as an analyst I do all right but there is not necessarily a secret Gizmo behind what we do now you can say that’s a knock maybe obviously we’re going to be using AI particularly chat gbt as I go research everything that goes on in Legacy markets as a relates to this Mega crash stuff like this that you see like once every 80 years requires the human element because one of the things that can make a crash a big crash and this happened in 87 is that the computer models break so obviously we’re going to use AI but it’s not a mechanized unit which is why launching this thing in the middle of a crash okay okay so launching it launching a restructured token in the middle of a crash is a good idea okay so let’s talk about the crash this is a head and shoulders top in S&P futures right now this is where you have to be a little bit careful with Bitcoin right I mean if this formation a head and shoulders top is three attempts to go up and it fails right like take it up the Bulls the advantage okay and this time we’re going to make a new high and we’re going to run the Bears out of town and the Bears slap them like no and then the Bulls go uh oh that was three attempts now we got to give up and clearly this has broken the neckline come back up and is now coming off downside Target is something like you know 4,000 for S&P futures which is about a 5% decline so most likely what you’re going to have is in order to accelerate this whole 1929 scenario to make a very long story very short you need a limit down day in S&P futures and you’re probably gonna get it you’re probably gonna get it right so that that is the next trade okay now this is the 55 day moving average in oil okay interesting how oil got to a hidden pivot Target okay at 95 38 and failed right this is the power of hidden pivot work okay now it’s below the 55 day moving average and this could just get totally hammered right in other words this is telling you that you know the us or any economy could just come on glued particularly China okay let’s just take a look at the dollar okay I wanted to show you the quarterly chart of the dollar okay so this is a quarterly chart this is April 1989 I started in the market in August of 1990 the dollar has never there’s a period of years here it’s a quarterly chart dollar has never really been able to sustain itself above 106 okay now here’s G to be Mega problems in Japan I’m not going to go into that today but that’s the fourth quarter of the crash like the United States is going to go and then Japan’s going to go and then Bitcoin is going to go as in up as in up and if you look at the Williams oscillator in the dollar there is going to be a big move in the dollar because the Williams oscillator is very close to zero so just to be clear just to be intellectually honest you know you could have a situation here where everyone panics and buys the dollar because everything else Falls falls apart right the ECB all all of these countries right have got such serious problems that people may prefer the dollar which is what they normally prefer in a crisis now if that happens to be the case the dollar will go up Bitcoin will go down but that will be the lifechanging opportunity to buy Bitcoin no matter how scary it is somebody sent 14,000 Bitcoin to crack it two days ago oo you know who that is that’s somebody who wants to scare everybody and push it down so they can buy so I’m not saying abandoned risk management in crypto but I am saying web 3 is underpriced relative to Ai and the crypto dip the mother of all crypto dips may be on the horizon it may go up first but you’re gonna have a dip because I don’t think anything is going to escape whatever’s going to happen in the middle of the month because that’s when all the Gan and all the astrology and all that stuff comes together okay eth want to like eth but there’s three red candles in a row eth is holding that’s good it’s not crashing okay but you know this demarc automated moving average acted as resistance you had this big false breakout okay I I don’t think there’s any big hurry there’s no big hurry to get like longterm long crypto at this point shortterm you know eth has probably got one or two more bars this morning before it can probably try to rally crypto’s probably going to try to rally one more time before QQQ blows up which is what’s next okay bitcoin’s got resistance to 27850 I can’t wait for the day where we could stop dissecting this minutia in the range in Bitcoin however this resistance resistance level is serious because it went up here and they rejected it right we could also have a situation where in Bitcoin it’s this simple right this recent rally is the start of a new trend and then you have a down B up C down okay you go up and then you go a b c and that’s where you buy half timee of a crash halftime right this is not over now speaking of not over this is the long Bond Futures Contract okay which as you can see is completely falling out of bed okay recently the breakdown actually just started with a move below 116 okay long Bonds in my opinion could go from 116 to 9 7 that’s how deep it can go like this is the daily chart of the long bond interest rate so this interest rates help determine 30-year mortgage rates and I think one of the more underreported things that’s going on out there in the market is that there’s this like giant triangle that this is recently broke out of and this could be a flag and a flag hole right now of course this is all over CNBC so bonds may take a break as stocks fall apart maybe not so this is the flag pole and this is of course the flag and the saying is Flags fly at half mast which means you know you’ll have this move okay then you you’ll have another move that’s the same size so when you see everybody on television going oh my God it’s all over in bonds it probably is okay there was a post by the guy that runs pinco okay Muhammad L Aran and he told the story he told the story about in 2012 Austria issued a 100-year bond a 100-year bond at a yield of 0.85% which at the time was like oh God you know rates are at zero someone’s giving me 0.85% how exciting is that whoever issued that bond is laughing all the way to the bank they have money for a hundred years at less than 1% I understand from that post from larion that that bond has lost two-thirds of its value 2third of its value the lesson that he’s trying to teach is when you have interest rates rise on long-term bonds it is very destructive I’m looking at this right now this is October 5th 900 am Eastern bonds ZB they’re still down they they they can’t even rally so these Barkley’s guys I mean this is like following a very simple moving average like a 50 period moving average on an 89 minute chart there’s no bid for bonds none right and this is what created the crash in 87 people don’t realize this green span came out following a greens span the the new fed chairman taking over for Paul vulker wanted to show how tough he was against inflation and he was jamming rates higher okay that caused a crash in bonds and that that in turn caused a crash in stocks in this case you have this this wicked thing where the FED is totally happy to wipe out risk assets this is the other thing people don’t understand about this crash let me pull up a different chart to talk to you know who’s happy about this crash the fed the FED is happy about this crash because the FED is sick of QQQ this is the Technology stock index where supposedly everything is fine and it’s not let me tell you why right first of all everybody borrows money against tech stocks everybody who works for tech companies goes out and spends money everybody thinks everything is fine everybody goes to Costco and is more than willing to pay whatever price there is for groceries meanwhile they think they’re safe in this and Jerome Powell’s tired of it I would be everyone’s like oh Jerome you’re not doing your job I was like okay really well you know what I’m going to let the bond market do the job I mean now what they’re probably not happy about is how scary this is because there’s no liquidity in treasuries like we don’t know where the bottom is in in our in our bonds we don’t know where the bottom is so like yeah they’re gonna get inflation under control but at what price now let’s talk about QQQ right this oh I I can’t like are you telling me that this whole AI thing is bigger than Bitcoin it’s bigger than money AI is more important than money so you can have Bitcoin going down or doing nothing with this going up up up you have a double top you have a nine bottom here okay but the thing about a nine bottom is if the ensuing if you get a failed rally after a nine bottom you can get an extended Trend so this is a daily chart and if QQQ can’t get itself back above 358 in other words if this candle and this candle are both failed rallies in QQQ this is going down for two weeks two weeks and it’s going down hard why because everybody thinks they’re safe everyone thinks this is fine in 1929 it was Standard Oil everyone’s like oh yeah oil company’s fine don’t worry about it somebody tried to buy Standard Oil and tried to pin its price in a certain level right Rockefeller did this to try to restore confidence in the market yeah forget about it lightning is out of the bottle you cannot keep Market forces at Bay you couldnot print4 trillion doll in 2020 and produce nothing inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods they printed 14 trillion doll and the world was closed so how does that not result in catastrophic inflation and how does it not take this down the people the thing that people do not understand about this is that the FED wants this down so I’m sure they’re scared out of their mind right I’m sure they’re scared out of their mind but you know what part of them is like you know what good good serves them right there’s your trend line in QQQ you do not need to be a professional technical analyst to know that QQQ is at an epic Reflection Point it has broken this trend line it has slammed up against it twice and now there’s nobody home nobody nobody let’s just look at the weekly chart just for laughs oh look there’s the giant 13 top wh lost it the giant 13 Top This crash now moves to equities which again could have a larger impact on crypto it could okay let’s go to crypto let’s talk more about it all right Jazz gill from Australia little late evening action from my friends overseas okay let’s go let’s go back let’s go back to crypto and Bitcoin okay now this is a 90minut chart of Bitcoin and it’s kind of ironic that the range in this is pretty clear if you look at the Demar work right 27.2 is the highend of range 26.7 is the lowend of the range you probably wind up seeing the low end of the range okay the real question is not with crypto is where do you buy it’s not where do you sell but it’s where do you buy okay 25.5 is another level now in the event of some kind of Calamity in crypto which we have to at least acknowledge that that’s possible let’s try to come up with like literally right now on the Fly where would you buy Bitcoin like like I I if the world ended where would it go okay so here’s the death cross in Bitcoin I don’t have the other moving average shown here but there’s a a allegedly bearish pattern in Bitcoin that so far is not working let’s just draw the hidden pivot analysis and say what’s the worst case scenario in Bitcoin well if you do the hidden pivot analysis A Move below 26.6 could trigger a move to 21 and honestly with the way this is working if there’s a stock crash and they’re G to try to push it down that would be I would think the max that they could push it down to some people have work showing like a bigger decline as possible if there is a bigger decline it’ll be a flash event ironically eth is actually closer to support at 1496 okay crypto is to be accumulated okay let’s sum this up aen is here what was the signature sign that the crash of 2008 has recovered and how long did to take Wall Street and Main Street to experience relief oh my God what a great question this is so let’s talk about crashes and aftermaths so in 2008 okay the consumer impact was that Banks just decided that they weren’t loaning anybody money so if you had a credit card with a $10,000 limit you got a letter in the mail that says if you hadn’t used the limit was like your your limit’s now $5,000 so that’s it and then of course there was mass unemployment there right you know you had a lot of white color workers just getting indiscriminately laid off and Wall Street did nothing but lay people off for 10 years I know it was there you know I survived eight Cost Cuts at Goldman uh and they finally got me in 2016 okay so it was a Relentless contraction in both the financial sector Banks now it took housing commercial real estate actually came back quicker mainly because everybody was like oh commercial real estate’s going to blow up and it really never did in this case I don’t think that’s going to be true there’s a Chim shoe that’s going to drop here we don’t even have enough time to cover these things but in 2008 the problem was everybody was underemployed for years if you lost your job you couldn’t get another one now this labor market is a little bit different okay I think the thing that’s going to be different about this is that in 2008 it was the big banks that failed in this market it’s going to be the little Banks discover Capital One Ally all the people who issue these store credit cards 2008 also left the mark right in the sense that central banks panicked central banks and bernacki started doing QE nobody understood what that was now of course we understand it is indiscriminate printing money but 2008 freaked them out so bad that they did emergency money Printing and it they never stopped doing it it like we can never have this we can never have the stock market go down again ever so we’re just going to keep printing I mean bernacki came out at Jackson Hall Wyoming and just said one day this is like three years later we’re doing permanent QE we’re doing permanent QE they were stimulating a housing market that didn’t need to be stimulated by buying mortgage back Securities so what I call the knife experience right you know is they got stabbed you know they got hurt in 2008 then they acted everybody acted like oh my God every time something happens you know every time the stock market went down 3% the FED would print more money like you know we can’t can’t have that again left like a permanent mark well okay so now we fed the market sugar for 12 years and now we’re going on a do diet of of chicken and broccol and the Market’s not going to like it right again you know bond yields go up the way they did how do stock survive Meanwhile we’re going to need a whole different monetary system so the summary crypto the solution right the United States ungovernable ungovernable right it was if you speak out against anybody you get cancelled erased demonetized whatever it’s unbelievable and there are people speaking out against it still but I think people are starting to wake up and this is why people are GNA go oh yeah I’m holding crypto and I’m going to self custody you know you know how crypto people are always lecturing people that that’s what you have to do yeah that’s not going to need to be a lecture when this is over it’s not which is why you can’t give up on crypto you have to expect insane volatility in Legacy you could have a long Bond the yield on a long Bond right now is 4.89 you could easily have a yield on a long Bond of 6% by the time this is over and that I mean that is a huge move in price in the price of the bonds not to mention you know an8 n% 308 mortgage rate recks housing you know what I’m saying I mean the way I describe this on like the EA Twitter spaces is that this could be like a seizure right where the market just like the whole system shakes right like like it’s going to come unglued now one of the things you have to be careful of is not giving into the fear so I just went through this whole hour diet tribe about crypto about Legacy about this being halftime of a crash don’t give into fear and don’t let that affect your decision making about crypto and more importantly don’t let it prevent you from having a happy life go to the movies go out buy your significant other flowers seriously one of the best things you can do like in 2008 it happened after 911 is that people went out and did things to like entertain themselves the musical the Broadway musical was invented in the 1930s as a way to distract the public make them laugh and give them something funny to do in New York during the Depression not only do you need to have a crypto plan but you need to have a happiness plan because very scary things are gonna happen so go out to dinner go to a movie buy an Xbox make sure that you make time to be happy I’m your host Bill Noble this is the half time report of the crash of 2023 I will see you [Music] soon