Recorded live after last week’s 5 Fact Friday, this is a conversation between Charlie and Alex Groundwater ( https://x.com/alexgroundwater ) about how UK politics is about to change forever, but most people don’t expect (or want) it.
You can see the original livestream of this conversation here along with the live chat: https://youtube.com/live/55jYZLAzoHI
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couldn’t what would and wouldn’t happen if the election result was based on the most recent poll but I think you got to zoom out a bit and look at the the the trend in the polls I am aware that no party is going to get more than zero or one or two seats unless they are polling uh above 20% in the polls roughly speaking that seems to be a consensus from pollsters and commentators from across the Spectrum um and different polls are put in the scores at different levels I mean thank you to all of you who voted in my polls on YouTube and on X interesting results I have a lot of Reform supporters on my YouTube in my YouTube following some like 45% of the vote would would vote reform um on X it wasn’t quite as high but it was still higher than anyone else it was 38% on X and we had nearly 2,000 votes um and then 35% so yeah Hey listen I can’t control my audience um everyone from Every background is welcome if you’re here to talk about housing um but this is this is what I think politics when you’re talking about it should be about I think it’s not about what we personally feel or think about any party or person or even policy if you want to see what’s going to happen in an election you’ve got to think to yourself you got you got to remove all emot motion completely remove all opinion about policies and go which demographics are going to react how to these different events right totally objective impartial so this takes me back to my my my politics studies right and I had the best politics teacher so after I got expelled from school Alex I ended up with a tutorial and and I had onetoone tuition for and I had this I mean he was he was basically um a a rock guitarist who was paying the bills by teaching politics we we used to we used to sit in these two Wing backed leather armchairs in his attic smoking and drinking during the day I was a teenager no um talking about politics and he was brilliant because he was as a teacher I mean I remember that particular place I went to was in um they did have outstanding good teachers because it was it was really expensive uh and they had very high quality teachers there and I I never once even he wouldn’t admit to me privately what he what his politics were and as a teacher of politics to me I’ve never forgot that I could not tell what his political leanings were well but he did then he was doing his job properly that’s my point and this is the point and I that I’ve kept that with me and I I think that’s why I’ve never ever been a supporter of any one political party I’ve always taken a a look at well hang on a second who’s doing what and why how’s that like to affect votes and polls and all this kind of stuff um so this is why I think this is what I’m hoping our discussion now might be like right it’s not about what whether you think anyone is or isn’t inert expletive adverb or adjective here um it’s about how you think the electorate is going to react that’s what I think is worth discussing and if you can just discuss it like that hopefully it doesn’t trigger anyone too much yeah so the thing that I’ve noticed that most people are saying is that it’s not going to make a difference to the election Nigel farage’s appearance as an election candidate and leader of the Reform Party is not going to make a difference the outcome of the election because the only thing he’s going to do is take Tory votes away and therefore he’s going to increase the likelihood of a labor Victory that’s the a generalization of the consensus view right would you would you agree with that observation that is what most people are saying yes yeah yeah I’m not asking if you agree with this with the state you agree that that’s what most people seem to be saying now I think two things first of all I think that there is a a large population of people in this country from a complete spectrum of social demographic backgrounds who find politics itself overwhelming boring annoying frustrating and don’t actually have a political home but tend to vote the way that they do because that’s what their mates or their family do right um which is fine that’s that’s like that’s just the way it is a lot of people don’t really know they haven’t looked into the details they haven’t studied policies they don’t even like talking about politics frankly because they just they don’t have enough information at hand to be able to express an opinion which is why it always ends up discussing into what do you think of that BL what do you think of that woman which is which is in my view an utterly futile exercise to discuss the individuals because it’s of no consequence really discussing their actions discussing their achievements yes but discussing the individuals is pointless because you know yeah anyway so first of all the polls show a conservative wipe out is almost a certainty right all of them are saying like very very low single digits basically um therefore there aren’t that many more votes to be had from the conservatives they’ve already lost most of them according to the polls and what’s left are just the died in the wool either they’re just lifelong Tory voters or they people who like I describe just vote because that’s what they do and that’s what their friends do and that’s it and they don’t really want to talk about it that’s what’s left but so many previously floating voters who were floating but tended to vote Tory are so pissed off with 14 years of Tory rule that they’re going right off you go we’re going to vote Labour now because there is no other credible party to vote voting libd is a wasted vote voting Green is to vote we’re just going to vote labor because actually the the current iteration of Labor isn’t that different it’s not extremely left-wing and therefore as former Tory voters we’re not that we’re not that uncomfortable voting for K sta because he’s basically a kind of Tory light you know it’s like this is the whole uni party they’re both the same thing voting for the same thing and and so I think there is a large part of the people who are perceived and the people who these tiny tiny polls are telling us are currently going to vote labor um who are doing so because they don’t think anything else anyone else is worth voting for now because this demographic that I described to you from across the political spectrum and from across the demographic spectrum and I’m talking about across the age Spectrum across the background Spectrum whether they are um born and bred Brits or whether they’re immigrants it doesn’t matter across all of those spectrums the the element of those demographics who do talk about the people in the politics right just talk about they don’t talk about policies because they don’t they don’t have them at their F What policies are um they’ve suddenly got Nigel farage to talk about and most people won’t talk about niga frage and support him publicly there are plenty who do but I think there are more who secretly support him who don’t say so I really think that and I don’t think that’s born out in the polls I think maybe it’s born out in my poll um and that’s why I think the the chances of Reform actually getting enough votes to get enough seats I understand how the voting system works I understand how seats work and I understand about how if they aren’t concentrated in the right places they W get the seats all that kind of stuff right I still think that there is a potential swing of people who will privately secretly they might not even have told their family and friends that they’re going to vote for reform but they’re going to that’s what I think is going to happen a lot more than people realize um and there’s no question of them getting into power I don’t you know that’s just not going to happen I I mean if it did I would eat my own hat labor will get the most seats I no longer think it’s a certainty that they will get a majority let me be clear I’m saying I don’t think it’s a certainty they get a majority is it still likely to got a majority possibly is it less likely that but still possible that reform will get enough seats to be in opposition okay e even if labor get a majority it might be reform who are in opposition if if if if if what I’ve just said is true Which is far more people end up voting and it does actually create a weird Landslide from Tory voters to reform voters so it’s just just an absolute Tory Wipeout and we have reform in hypothetically potentially as the opposition I don’t think that’s impossible I think it’s unlikely I don’t think it’s impossible I I and and and for me the Tories would be such an ineffective opposition to labor because they’ve just ceased to function as a party that’s what I see right I mean I don’t think labor fun as a party either but I think the Tories have ceased to function completely as a party they just don’t they they they’ve actually for some time they’ve just ceased functioning as a party they got unelected even their own members didn’t vote for their current leader it’s just you know it’s almost like a sort of weird caretaker situation at the moment just waiting for the election so and I had okay I want to put this up on screen because this actually um was a one of the most useful comments I have seen here we are from someone on YouTube who commented on this point right now this is this is a fantastic example of what I call a constructive and robust counterargument to what I’m saying all right so this is a comment on my post on YouTube where I said where I said what I’ve just said to you guys right and so Lola if that’s how he pronounce his name says I generally agree with your take is that on the screen I generally agree with your takes but this is miles off firstly reform was polling at about 12% but was still a long way from projection to win a single seat because of the first pass the post system with a 5% swing they still might and are probably not be forecast to win a single seat secondly label will have absolutely nothing to do with reform under any circumstances hell they’ll get into bed with the S&P before Nigel farage okay thirdly the emergence of Reform currently only means that Labor’s majority will increase okay and fourthly housing is probably one of the least likely policy areas to be on the table in any hung Parliament negotiation it’s not something which is influencing voting for The majority electorate okay I’d like to respond to those and then ask you for you because I’ve been talking for a long time now um polling at 12% might get another 5% to 17% well they’ve already they’re already polling at 17 18% now and they’re trending upwards so my my reaction to that first point is I suspect that the the polling trend is going to continue to rise firstly and I do think they’re going to win more seats than anyone expects secondly label have label have absolutely nothing to do with reform under any circumstances so he’s talking about the potential of a hung Parliament um in the scenario where it genuinely hypothetical right labor do not have a majority conservatives have got far fewer seats reform have got the second largest number of seats or or conservative and reform have got similar number of seats and conservative plus reform equals enough to make a government and therefore the only way that labor makes a government is if it gives in and Co does a coalition with reform this chap is saying they would walk away from that I don’t believe any party would walk away from a a distasteful Coalition I just don’t believe they would I I but I could be wrong about that I I I that’s one of things I’d love to ask you in that scenario do you think labor would turn their nose up and go no rather not be in government than do a coalition with you guys um no you exactly um so he said the Emergen of Reform means Labor’s majority would increase I disagree with that for reasons I’ve explained and that was interesting his last Point fourthly um housing is one of the least likely policy areas to be on the table in any hung Parliament yeah fair enough fair enough um I see that but I but I what I think might happen I suppose if what would I hope for in a scenario anything like this if we ended up with Nigel farage as the leader of the opposition I just think he’s such a pain in the ass in that scenario that he might actually effect better policy changes than would happen if it was the Tories in opposition doesn’t mean I like him doesn’t mean I’m a supporter of him what I mean is I think it’ll actually get stuff done potentially because they will already be thinking and worrying about the next election so I will shut my trap um you can have the opposing view so look my my my view is quite simple on this farage is a very divisive figure um you know you either love him or hate him very and he is most known for brexit when we look at the brexit vote roughly 72% of the electorate turned out out of 46 million people um that means 33 million people voted only 12% is estimated under 4 million only 12% of those people voting who voted for brexit were labor supporters now that’s an an accurate figure that’s from a whole bunch of different polls um we don’t know for certain obviously uh but that suggests that it would have to be a massive upset for a large a substantial proportion of Labor supporters to switch to reform so you’re right they’ll pick up people from U floating they may pick up many from the conservatives where most of them will come from um and a whole bunch of others who for various reasons both good and bad might think that farage is the right person for the country however I still the maths on it suggests that labor will win an outright government it will not be a hung Parliament however you’re right it’s not impossible I mean it’s certainly not impossible um as you’ve said actually for housing you’ve looked at the Liv Dems and they’ve got the best Manifesto on housing and you know some of their other policies from the things that I’ve read look pretty reasonable I’ve never voted libd in my life but we just don’t know until the election I agree with you that if we were in the situation where it had to be a coalition between labor and um reform labor would bite the hand off because they want to be in power however they could form coalitions not just with one other party you can have a three-party coalition you can have an all party Coalition you know it starts to get really tricky at that point the thing that I absolutely agree with you on is that we need change in this country and somebody wrote to you yesterday I think on X saying well you know you just want change would you take it if it meant this and you know my answer I I I’ve spent my working life affecting change at companies operationally and you know through capital projects and the reason is this when any system whether it’s a company uh a religion um a political system gets to the point where it is in Decline the status quo is in Decline I think we can say that this country has been going downhill now for a number of decades the best thing to do at that point is to change and people go well yeah but change for change sake doesn’t help well if the status quo is declining it is a very strong argument that making a change even if it’s the wrong change even if that change does not is not effective is better because you have overcome the inertia of the status quo you have a body in motion and steering something that is moving is much easier than steering something that is either stationary or dead you know if you’re if you’re if you’re a sailor or a motorboat Enthusiast The Rudder doesn’t work unless you’re going forwards or you fly airplanes you know Rudders not much use to you unless you’ve got motion and at the moment we have been static in this country for decades and that is worse for us longterm than the pain that might be implemented by bringing in a farage to run the country yeah people will hate it it will be terrible but boy it’ll move them and when it moves them then real change useful change will be be affected it’s transitory pain for long-term gain so you know we’ll see I don’t think farage I I think reform will win many more votes Than People expect and I think they will win some seats but I don’t think it’ll be a hung Parliament is my view do you think even if it’s not a hung Parliament there’s a chance of seeing farage in opposition rather than the Tories Jesus the way the Tories are pulling at the moment yeah I hate to say but there’s a higher chance of that than of there being a hung Parliament that’s my point this is why this is such big news to me because even with farrage just in opposition but labor having majority that is a very different house of parliament houses of Commons to labor with the Tory opposition because the Tory opposition will be basically absent because they’re going to be going through a complete you know who knows what’s going to happen to they’re going to effectively go a bit like Voldemort just disappeared Into the Wilderness for a few years in Harry Potter you know it’s just like ceased to exist we’ll start to see skulls in the sky right exactly but you know I just think politics would be interesting I mean he’s even stated his intention I I don’t think farage has any interest in actually running the country I don’t I don’t think he does he’s too much of a bon via he just wants to sit in the pub and smoke and drink that’s fine and disrupt he is a disruptor he calls himself a an a camp an issues campaigner he repeatedly calls himself that right and he so in other words he’s a hanger he wants to be a bloody nuisance and he said I want vote me to so I can be a bloody nuisance and my point is that the housing market whatever you think of farage the housing market might see some change any change and it’s more likely with a labor majority okay that we see change with with a reform in opposition than if we see then it’s more likely that we see change of formform in opposition than if we have the Tores in opposition that’s my point as you just said there’s a very real chance of that happening that’s why this is big news that he’s chosen to stand because he has clearly mobilized things he has clearly altered the course of this election there’s no question about that no question um so and you know don’t confuse people should not confuse my excitement at the pro at the possibility of change coming in the housing market with you loving barage but you do love him no no no I love how entertaining it is to watch him I love how entertaining it is I love the fact he’s just a grenade he’s a grenade thrower King you know you watch him in in the in the European Parliament and way stood there insulting them all he is an orator and he is a bright insightful insightful orator um whether you believe in his policies or not is is sort of irrelevant in this situation simply because it’s not Tory it’s not labor it is different it will motivate people whether in a good way or a bad way it will get some bloody movement which is what this country needs and prime minister’s questions time with with farage versus starma there just going to be a walkover every single time because starma is a wet blanket at the at the at the um dispos yeah useless which which for a QC or Casey whatever it would be now yeah you know you have to wonder anyway um I I I I despair at the complete lack of any meaningful change being put forward by the Tor or labor in housing just absolutely despair of it um it’s also astonishing to me how up until this week’s announcement of farage throwing his hat in the ring everyone was just bored with the this the other thing this whole 2,000 worse off under labor whether whether was he lying or not for that to be the dominating topic of the week to me couldn’t be a better example of why we’re just like what really that is what’s going to get all the headlines and he sunx saying 2,000 PS and starm calling a liar that’s what we’re gonna write about really [ __ ] come on don’t you love the fact that whether it’s 2,000 or 3,000 under the Tor nobody has yet put down that I have seen a definitive answer everyone is still arguing a point and if you can argue over how much tax is actually going to be collected at a very you know simple calculation then it either something’s wrong with our tax system our mathematicians or it’s just all lies yeah yeah exactly um love I love this comment fragle H says change is always a risk yeah I agree of course it is but change is necessary yeah um Florian G says that’s a good point make people Embrace change that’s the problem and I think as a country we are guilty of going we’re not happy we’re not happy everything terrible no no no no don’t change anything no because change but you can’t change anything all right just just keep it just as it is but change everything but don’t change anything because for the vast majority of the population of this country it’s never been so good don’t get me wrong the cost of living recently has been horrible and the lack of wage growth since 2008 but you’ve got Netflix haven’t you you’ve got a nice big Telly you can eat decent food by decent I mean you can get food from all over the world at any time of the year yeah I mean we live in places where we don’t have to walk outside in the cold to take a [ __ ] you know you’ve got you’ve got plumbing and you’ve got water you can drink from the tap and actually although there is a lot to complain about we’ve just got so used to the Comfort that the possibility of risking any lowering of Standards by changing it we just go oh no no no no it’s too difficult and that’s how Empires are destroyed I’ve got a I’ve got an anecdote about this this is I used to run a hand car wash in the car park of Crawley station in West Sussex that’s a statement will surprise many people it was after I’d been fired for my job in the city and right in the early days of me finding my own way as someone who wanted to be my own boss but I ran car I had a lease with British Rail and I had was all legit properly set up and I employed up at one point 16 people I was 23 years old and most of them were um out of prison um and for you know a posh boy brought up in lap of luxury this was this was a very very unexpected career turn me to be managing most of these guys who are older than me and everything else anyway what’s the point of the story the problem with hand car wash is as anyone’s been will know is that either they’re dead and they’re empty or they’re got cues it’s all because it’s weather dependent and time of the week dependent and so I had this problem in my business which was that we were losing money whenever it was busy because we couldn’t get the cars through fast enough so I offered my team a zero downside upside only option to to their pay which was for every car we cleaned over a certain number they would get an extra bonus there was no downside this was like your your your fixed hourly pay stays the same no matter what but when it’s really really busy if we get busy it’s hard at work isn’t it so you all deserve a bit more money and I I I announced this thinking they’re gonna love this the next day Charlie we want have a word with you please okay cool I thought great this is going be brilliant um we don’t like the new pay system we want to keep it as it is the reasoning I well I thought to myself a second is it wind up or is it not wind up and the end of the conversation was if we don’t understand it we don’t trust it we want to know we do this many hours we get this much pay end off but you could have more pay and what you’re suggesting we don’t know how much we’re going to get and I said but it’ll either be the same as you’re getting or more and they’re like no sorry just could please just leave it the way it is I’ve never forgotten that because they were all in agreement yes all in agreement I mean that’s nuts I’m just voting off my own fingers I remember saying to them I remember saying to them is it is it a trust thing like no no no we do trust you we wouldn’t work for you would trust you I said because then if you trust me why don’t you trust me just let’s just try it no please honestly and and I what I think it comes down to is a lot of people want certainty without question yeah what I mean just certainty without question is more valuable to them than uncertainty that should be better they just certainty I I I understand that I mean if you talk about a estate agents the old days of The Negotiator who got absolutely peanut salary and it was all bonus dependent I understand that they would like some more certainty and they would be willing to take lower bonuses but if there’s no downside if you’re going to get the same wage anyway and the only thing is upside at that point it’s a bit nuts you know what I tried to keep pushing it and they actually got crossed to me so I left it yeah and what I did was that I actually just without telling you without because I wanted to C in their mind I wanted them to think every extra car we do is an extra quid or whatever it might be yeah yeah on top of our our basic paper but in the end what I did was I just you know when we had a good day I just gave him a bit extra they were always grateful for that um but it wasn’t formal if you’d made it formal not happy it’s it’s yeah it’s it’s funny isn’t it and I can’t remember why why I told that story but oh yeah about people not liking change yeah no well they don’t I mean it’s the hardest thing when you’re when you’re you get brought into you know a large multinational sort of firm and they say look we got a real problem here and he say right we can change we need to change these things it takes a few years to learn that the first thing you have to do when people say you have to bring the staff on the journey as a 25y old you go and slam your face into a desk and start ranting at people as a 45y old you go yeah if we don’t actually get this familiarized around the entire office get people’s buying set stupid stakeholder groups get working groups together get it advertised they’ll never adopt it and your your success or failure depends entirely on your communication skill at the outset yeah I had a really another quick quick one because it’s quite funny one a shorter one so when we were doing photography and floor plans and virtual tours for State agents in London we had offices in Richmond and we had about 20 people in the office and we had about 20 guys out on the road shooting photographs in Flor P day and we had an office full of Dell computers everyone I had a Dell laptop everyone else had Dell computers because right there they were the best value and it was as early 2000s and I remember deciding myself to try an Apple MacBook because I thought to myself they’re twice the price and people are buying them and I don’t believe people are buying them just because they got too more money than sents there must be a reason and I started to to buy one and it took me about two weeks to get familiar with the differences the operating system differences and after that I was like oh my God this is great so I said to my office okay guys who wants to change to Apple Max and they were all like all of them no no no no no we like our windows we know our Windows leave it at that and I said well look I think because all of you complain that your computer’s crash and your windows crashes two or three times a day get blue screen of death blah blah blah I said I’m gonna get four iMac so four of you just 20% of you um uh you know you can volunteer or otherwise I’ll pick you anyway I got four put them in there and I said 30 days just use it for 30 days and after that I will give you your Dells back if you don’t like it and so after 30 days I K said right guys I com to take your IMAX like No And they loved them and then the rest of the office changed and it was again it’s this like I had to kind of force it on them and then once they tried it they liked it oh my God selling a stency software to agents is like 10 times worse anyway anyway anyway sorry I’m rambling here but um yeah um one last point I wanted to bring up with you you know last week we talked about um the mortgage approvals number ticking up yeah yeah and that that might be making me think oh maybe there’s more that it feels like a blip to me I’m looking at everything else yes it’s all looking negative in terms of the economy itself I think yeah agreed people keep saying oh but the purchase managers index the global S&P purchase managers index for the UK has just come out and it’s 54 now does that matter I mean what what does it what how relevant is that index well I mean it is relevant but it’s it’s based on gut feel I mean it’s not it’s not hard science you know and this is your problem is people are feeling it’s spring everyone feels a bit more frisky and optimistic in Spring don’t they all summer um you know and this is this is the problem a lot of this is not objective it’s subjective but can I can I share a screen with you yeah yeah I loved it always always always everyone loves that when you do that just because just because somebody mentioned it earlier and you’re talking about the economy and although these charts are a little a little old um they are from February I think come on while you’re doing that someone called adomus on YouTube says Charlie it took me 12 years to get on the housing ladder the only reason why is because For the First Time house prices fell to where my wage could just attain one yeah yeah he goes on say I spent all that time chasing the rung there you go okay I can’t remember who mentioned this but somebody did earlier you can see this graph runs from 1955 all the way to 2023 um sorry it actually runs to 24 um the last quarter of 23 beginning of 24 this is gross domestic product per capita is this on X by the way this graph uh yeah I think so I posted these because people would love to go and look at that in detail on their own so while you’re talking about it I’m going to see if I can find it on your timeline and I’ll put a link to it um so when they talk about our economy and how strong it is and our GDP has grown and all this sort of good stuff you’ve got to put that in the context of how many people have come into the country um and yes total GDP has grown but if you want to work out how whether you feel wealthier or not you need to have GDP per capita and also bear in mind that there are a small number of very rich people in this country and a large number of um really quite poor people so this is averaged per capita and that’s not the way it actually works but what you can see is from 1975 after the early 70s recession all the way through until 2008 our GDP per capita really was going up the these three green trend lines are all heading in the same place the last time we were as bad as we were from 08 through until 19 was all the way back in the 50s the post-war period and 60s where you still had rationing for some of that period but this is our recovery from covid and what you can see is actually there is no recovery as somebody pointed out in your comments earlier um from we’ve actually been technically in recession from 2019 onwards so if I just zoom that in a little bit you can now see um this is just a zoomed in version from 1981 after the recession of the early 90s it took 14 quarters to get back to our pre-recession level after the 2008 recession it took 29 quarters to get back to pre-recession level um y yeah H and here you can see and be in mind this is quarterly um GDP per capita so multiply that by four which will take you up to the £35,000 a year that is the average salary um and there you go you know that’s what we’re really looking at so when people talk to you about ah yes the economy is going gang busters no there’s strength in the economy I’m not even looking at Commercial Real Estate here I mean nothing not looking at debt not looking at servicing debt this is just a productivity I mean the base case without productivity you can’t service your debt because you have no money you can’t invest in public infrastructure because you have no no income no purse for the country when you tax people you get less tax because they’re not earning enough to be paying the tax and so on and so forth so quality of living goes down so the the first thing that you look at much as it’s it’s a fudged statistic is per capita GDP and that tells you right away things are not on the up and this election is without change in the country this election will change nothing in terms of where we are going in how we feel day today in how wealthy we are how happy we are all of these things predicated from this set of data can I ask you a question about that graph yeah to to you is this one of the most significant charts to show the true extent of how how truthfully our economy is performing I mean yes when you look at it over what is it going back to the 50s well that’s 70 years or something I mean that’s 1981 you’re going back to it it is it does look sort of you know you can ignore the the covid part right it’s just disas I mean because I think people who are not perhaps fluent in dealing with graphs might think that anything other than a downward spike is is is irelevant it’s quite hard to understand that the long-term trend of that graph is fairly stable with a few blips here and there what’s happening now looks different to all those other times yeah it just looks like it’s oh it’s it’s just over it’s just over this is the decay of the first world this I mean don’t don’t get me wrong America’s graph looks slightly different but that is only because they are the global Reserve currency look at France look at Spain look at Italy um again Canada Australia slightly different situations because they started from a lot much lower Benchmark they were later in their cycle um you know in the 70s they were still paying Brits to go out to work in Australia um whereas the 70s was the first time in this country just just after the 70s that we had um we became uh an immigration country before that we’d had Brits going out of the country around the world to make their money in America in Australia all of these sort of places because England was a pretty grimy place in the early 70s you know after we were still in the recovery period after the second world war and but from 75 onwards look at this bang bang bang all those green lines look we’re we’re all getting richer and richer and richer this blue line from 08 to 19 would have been substantially lower than that if it hadn’t been for the quantitive easing and yet all that did was just push it off to the point that we’re at today where you know we’re in even greater Decline and this number this hasn’t got any better in the first quarter of 24 it’s continued that Trend going down just quickly also to recap the relevance of this stuff to the housing market is that in the medium and long term for people expecting house prices to continue Rising it it just and this is why even Richard Donald from zuper agrees that there’s going to be no real house price growth for some time yeah decades and and therefore people who think that buying a home is a good Financial move shouldn’t think that anymore and this is why this is why right it’s just not possible you buy a home buy a home to have a home 100% I’ve never said don’t buy a home if you need a home but do not think because I just all I can hear over and over again say oh house prices double every 10 years that’s not true when you take inflation to account number one and number two it does the fact that they even have doesn’t mean they can they will just doesn’t mean that they’re going to continue doing that yeah um I I found myself asking the question if I because I I gave Rachel reev some pretty harsh criticism recently um by the way I link to that graph in the live chat there’s a link to to that tweet with that graph for those of you want to go have a look at it um I was pretty harsh about Rachel Reeves she she did that interview saying oh I used to work at the bank of England therefore I know how to be Chancellor I that frustrated me and I I posted about it I thought okay Charlie what would I do if I was Chancellor what what headline grabbing thing if I was going to be Chancellor and I was trying to get myself elected in party where I was going to be the chancellor what would I do and I thought about it a lot I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this to you or not I don’t think I have no I would this is going to upset environmentalists I would scrap as in scrap fuel Duty right it’s a lot of tax in that nope it’s it’s 24 billion a year yeah okay it’s not that much in the grand scheme okay it’s 24 billion a year which is less than two months of the NHS costs and the point is is that it benefits the lowest income people the most it’s an instant overnight thing that requires almost no Logistics almost no Administration just a little bit right it would instantly give a shot in the arm to businesses people who have to commute so if you think about people who work from home people who work from home tend to have slightly high paid jobs than people who need to travel to work because their job absolutely yeah yeah right so lower paid people would get the biggest benefit proportionately out of a scrapping of fuel Duty and it’s not perfect and people go oh but what about the environment like honestly it’s not going to CH we might see a slight increase in how much fuel gets used but Britain on a global level doesn’t even move the needle in the margin of error of carbon dioxide emissions it doesn’t matter and also people’s um people’s ability to make a living and pay their bills is is more yes we all want a nice future but also we want an okay now please yeah and and so and I also thought about businesses small businesses all businesses fuel Duty you would give the economy a shot in the arm because it it wouldn’t just be the value of the duty being put back into the economy it would be Mobility actual physical Mobility people would see people would go out more people would see each other more it people would I just think that that would catalyze a little bit of a a rebound in the economy as a whole for small businesses for individuals I really think you Mass you’re going mad because the next thing you’d say if we want the mobility in the country is we’re gonna have to get rid of stamp juyi and stamp in fact let’s get rid of all the duties especially on alcohol no you still would you still would attack [ __ ] and booze seems very unfair I get that I go nowhere yeah but but um I would scrap stamp Duty it would need to be replaced with something different um but again I just honestly why hasn’t that happened why haven’t people reformed property taxes yeah because government is not functioning correctly and he couldn’t they couldn’t even if they decided they wanted to it wouldn’t happen Okay so this is where we get really political Charlie yeah have you been watching what’s happening in Argentina uh I’ve not been watching closely but I’m vaguely aware of it yeah go on you want you want to talk about shaking up politics making a change in the country tell tell us give us a give us a heads up for people who don’t it’s so much I mean you need to have a look at what he’s what he’s been doing um uh since since getting power uh I mean just it’s the most recent case study that socialism bankrupts countries and ending socialism stops the deficit right yeah I mean old Javier you know we’ll have to see he calls himself well he’s he’s a member of the libertarian party um but the sort of work that he’s doing to change everything from their their general laws to their bureaucracy massive and now it’s almost to the point where you would say well like a dictator and I think you and I have discussed many times my view on dictatorship as a form of government is about the only way you get things done um so you know we’ll see we’ll see but for all of your audience it’s definitely worth having a look and I can never pronounce his surname it’s mle Javier mle the the president prime minister whatever he is of of Argentina just have a look at some of the laws that he’s passed you’ve reminded me about something that I said which is when I was complaining about Rachel re being um if that’s the chancellor we’re faced with then we really are [ __ ] because it’s the she doesn’t even know how she incompetent she’s going to be in that job and someone said to me well who would you recommend Charlie and I said well someone who’s got track record of delivering tangible improvements in a large organization and someone said oh but the government’s not a business now I would argue differently I would argue that the go running the government is like running a business because you’ve got customers who are paying you money I.E you’ve got the taxpayers you’ve got suppliers and in a really simplistic way you got a business the government is a business where the customers are paying very high prices very high taxes but the business is so badly run that the the company is being ripped off by suppliers who are charging really high prices and not delivering to basic service levels and and and so what’s this business selling it’s selling opportunity and quality of life in society that’s what it’s selling it’s selling security um security health opportunity and quality of life and it’s not selling any of those things very well is it if you think about it and that’s what the governments are doing they’re saying hey choose us to run this business where we’re going to sell you security opportunity Education Health and and a better way of life that’s what they’re pitching us is that they want to run the business that sells us those things in return for our tax money and unless you’ve operated businesses where you do have to measure the input and output and results and the metrics if you’ve got people running in government who don’t believe in that sort of thing like actually looking at the inputs and outputs and going is there value for money here then you end up with a situation that we’ve got which is this bloated ineffective thing where we’ve got at the same time as the highest taxes ever we’ve got the worst public services in living memory yeah and so if you put idealists into government like Argentina had before Malay it gets worse and worse and worse because what do they do they throw more and more and more of taxpayers money because they borrow just thinking that money alone more money will solve the problem and there are how many countless businesses um left that that out there who’ve borrowed more money and still failed anyway Alex you said you got to go we probably should be going hour and 20 minutes anyway guys thank you very very much um for thank you very much for watching um I hope that was interesting um lots of stuff we going on talking about um for all new followers here Alex if you got to shoot off go for it okay jolly
34 Comments
Spot on Charles,Starmer would do anything to get into power….he has no core beliefs or values anyway
Bang on the money re Farage/ Reform. Good analysis Charlie.
"If voting made a difference, they wouldn't let us do it. " – Mark Twain
The Lib Dems are forecast to win around 60 seats with around 11% of the vote. SNP 15 seats at 3%. There’s no absolute algorithm when it comes to FPTP.
This whole discussion of mobility is just scratching the surface. Fuel duty, road tax, congestion charge, tolls, parking charges, LTNs, LEZ, ULEZ, MOTs, and this is just driving! How about extortionate rail and other public transport fares! Next theyll be taxing walking and cycling and maybe a work from home and delivery duty so you cant stay at home either!
The government is like a business, but one with an entrenched monopoly. That's why socialist governments lead to the worst living standards. There isn't even competition from the private sector because the government controls the means of production.
Labour shouldn't have been given any chance of running the country. It's sad to see the Conservative Party being destroyed by the idiots who are in charge. Allowing Labour in sadly.
European countries are going towards the far right. Whichever party that gets into power in the UK will adopt the same model as Europe.
Fascism always follows mass migration.
Charlie, your 35% price drop prediction hasn't come true yet…. maybe hold off before you start predicting elections…
My generation can't afford homes in their own country, ofc importing millions in the last few years affects things, it's supply and demand. Reform are the only ones who are serious about reducing mass immigration and illegal immigration. I'm an ex-labour voter, but I'll be voting reform, the party of the people. VOTE REFORM
TUC are now saying unemployment rising at the fastest pace among 38 of the world’s richest countries, only Costa Rica suffered a similar rise in the number of people losing their jobs between the start of January and the end of March….
Personally I don't think the Conservatives are that worried about losing the election whereas Labour is more worried about winning. Anything to do with the reform of the NHS, Education, Social care is going to be at massive cost. None of these issues are going to be solved using money found down the back of the sofa such as VAT on school fees.. The Conservatives are probably fairly confident that they won't be in opposition for long as Labour will struggle.
Not calling out Farage for what he actually is by media and commentators is shameful. Anyone decent who is paying attention knows exactly what Farage/Trump/Bannon are. The world is in deep deep trouble if these despicable characters get in power again. Corruption, crime and dictators are on the horizon
ukip took significant amounts of labour votes previously
Please ask stig about reform planning to scrap interest on QE gilts and Andrew Bailey calling this a tax on banks 😂. Isn't interest on QE gilts a tax on us taxpayers in the first place? Are the boe taxing us by selling qe gilts for anything as low as 60p on the pound, plus interest?
Last time Conservatives got 365 seats with just under 14million votes.
@MovingHomewithCharlie Sorry if I missed it, but with the per capita GDP graph – do you know if the figures are adjusted for inflation?.. makes quite a difference if not!
I think your right on the money with this guys. Reform will surprise ! I think a lot of people will come out to vote to effect change. Ive not voted for 30yrs because of the system but finally there is a chance of change on the horizon.
There is IMO zero chance Labour will make a coalition deal with Reform. For that you need substantial common ground and compromises on both sides. There just isn’t enough common ground and Farage will not compromise on anything, populists simply cannot do that.
The reason the main parties have no housing policies is because they are WEF Puppets…they want us to own nothing!!
You look well Charlie!
I agree with HS if people continue to vote for the same 2 parties they cannot expect anything to change. OK so reform won't get in this time and we will have to put up with 5 years of pain with Labour but Reform may well get in the next time and nobody else is going to put forward any change I don't think. We cannot keep going the way we're going
Lots of people being polled and saying Tory/Labour are probably apathetic and won’t vote. The reformed votes are furious and are highly motivated to vote, if they are 17% in the polls that could turn into 30% of people who actually turn up to vote.
Granted, I've not heard everything Farage has said over the years, but everything I have heard I can't disagree with.
I fail to see why he's so disliked.
He's a great orator. His high-level policy announcement yesterday is exactly what the country needs. He's the closest thing to a statesman we've had for years.
He doesn't give a shit who he pisses off, consequently he's pissing off all the right people.
I’m from Argentina. Javier Milei didn’t pass any law. He couldn’t because the Congress wasn’t renewed yet (it will be in 2025) and the opposition is rejecting every law he’s proposing just because. He’s using the powers he’s entitled to as a President and enforcing the law Argentina already had.
Labour will win a land-slide because they now occupy the centre ground. Therefore, Reform as a further right party than the even the Tories, will only get a minority 15-20% vote share.
I’ve always thought you were more mindful than what you’ve posted here.
If Labour are to be in a coalition, then it’d be a rainbow type involving the Greens and Lib Dem’s
Quite frankly, Farage is the only person capable of delivering REAL change. Reform Reform Reform.
We all need to stop apologising for liking or backing Farage….
We haven't even started understanding the effects of the various elections yet.
The civil service is the biggest roadblock for change.
What about all the red wall seats that Boris Johnson won 5 years ago it just shows that immigration is a big thing for Labour voters as well as Conservative and i think there obtainable for Farage to win in my opinion
This is exactly what I said to my husband! People will be secret Reform voters.
Secret reform voter here, I agree with Charlie about the reform vote and I know others who will vote reform and just don't talk about it because it's to much hassle, my labour voting family would accuse me of being anti poor racist bla bla bla(despite me having 3 mixed race children and a foreign non white wife. It's alot of hassle to admit who I will vote for so I keep it to myself it's a similar story with those I know we'll who I can discuss politics with.
Reform are going to do really well in this election. You’d have to be mad to vote for the communists AKA Labour.