Will UK House Prices Fall In 2024?

Will UK House Prices Fall In 2024?

Uncertain about the UK housing market? This video dives into whether house prices will FALL in 2024. We explore expert predictions, recent trends, and what it could mean for buyers and sellers. #UKhousingmarket #houseprices #2024forecast

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hey my name is Jameson and welcome to my YouTube channel in this video I want to talk about my expectations for house prices in 2024 you see a lot of the content that we share on this channel is from various different news sources for example every month we share what right move thinks is going on with the market Nationwide Halifax the office of national statistics and various other sources like that but I want to tell you what I feel is going to happen to house prices this year when lots of places uh were saying that the market was going to crash big time last year but it didn’t happen so what can we expect by the end of this calendar year I can’t really go much further out than that cu no one has a crystal ball we don’t know whether we’ll be a new Wars or the economy will be in a huge recession or various things like that so let’s talk about 2024 but before we jump into this as always if you haven’t done do subscribe to the channel over there and hit the Bell notification we’ve had a great weekend we hit 24,000 subscribers we hit 3 million views on the channel as well so do subscribe and we here smash like tick or like do something to that like button that really helps with the YouTube algorithm that’s why we got 3 million views because of people like you pressing that like button so how prices a topic of debate my partner Katie her mom had her 8 th birthday this week weekend and we took a cruise on the temps with her family and it was a conversation that came up from various different people particularly people asking me where do I feel house prices will end up this year so let’s look at some factors and how they’re going to impact house prices and then I’ll give you what I think will happen with houses so I think one of the biggest factors in house prices this year is interest rates now I believe when the rates drop I don’t think you’re going to get massive drops from your mortgage rate so what I mean by that is when the bank of England finally dropped the interest rates I don’t think the mortgage rates are going to get massively cheaper I think about a quarter or half a percent but here’s what I do think that will make Tri will Tri and and make happen in the market I know from speaking to tons of estate agents every month and investors and people like you on the channel there are a number of people just with a wait and see approach they’re just sitting out to see what happens in the market that happened last year transaction volume was down massively the reason for that is people want to try and time the bottom of a market that’s very hard to do but they want to uh Target when the house prices might be at the lowest in order to buy no one wants to buy 100 grand house that’s worth 80 grand a year later and so people’s belief is that when the rates drop that near then or there or thereabouts we might hit the bottom of the house price market now that might not be true but that’s what a lot of people’s expectations is and I think what when rates do drop that you’ll see an influx of buyers for a few months the people that were sitting on the edge I think you get two or three months that will be fairly busy in the property market and I think rates are going to have a big impact on that next one is inflation right so the inflation has been really sticky it’s really boring that we have to keep talking about inflation but it is what it is right so UK inflation is at 2.3% it’s close to Target it’s expected to get even closer to Target with the May data that we get this month in June and I think that that’s right I think we can see from the 12 month rolling that last month last year’s May data was high that’s going to drop off the 12-month rolling so as long as we don’t get a high rating for May this month then we’re going to improve right so we might get below that 2.3% Target but there’s still a lot of volatility in the world Energy prices are are expected to creep up at the end of this year now if that happens then inflation could come back and the bank of England has been saying that repeatedly they think inflation will drop below Target in the summer but it could come back in the winter now if that happens then that’s going to impact house prices uh it’s going to impact interest rates it’s mean they’re going to go down at a much slower pace and so that means that house prices potentially could be quite Rocky but let’s just say on the other side of things that inflation dropped quicker and it didn’t come back and we got major Cuts in interest rates that could Revitalize the property Market temporarily similar to the interest rate stuff next is demand now we live on a little island and we don’t have enough houses but there isn’t lots of buyers at the moment right so we don’t have lots of people desperate to buy a property but likewise we don’t have lots of people desperate to sell a property right now demand is matching on both sides but if that changes if suddenly loads of buyers come in sellers even come into the market because they can’t afford interest rates or the section 24 tax on landlords is killing them or uh labor come into power and put lots of more oous laws onto landlords that make them leave and then suddenly there’s an influx of sellers that potentially could cause problems and if that happened then the market could drop quickly so that’s interesting to talk about that so that’s a consideration here when we talk about wherehouse prices are going up next population so the UK population is likely to explode over the next 3 years the uh they they we currently have 67 million of us on this tiny little island and that’s in 24 2024 by 2026 which is not long we’re expected to have 70 million people 3 million extra people in the UK now that’s for various reasons one life expectancy people are living longer that’s good next is uh immigration so we’ve got lots of people we’ve got hundreds of thousands of people coming into the country uh each and every year I’m not going to talk about the feelings on that I know that can be very political um so if you are going to comment on that just keep it polite in the comments please but yeah immigration will grow the population as well now look the country is growing regardless of whether we have immigration or not the problem here is that we just don’t build enough houses we needed to build 300,000 houses per year we don’t do that we’re not going to hit that Target it’s unlikely we’re going to hit that Target anytime soon even probably before 2030 so there is going to be a severe lack of Housing and it’s going to get worse over the next few years now for house prices that’s likely to be positive as in it’s likely to push them up negative if you want to buy a cheaper property so that is something uh to consider as well and the last one I want to talk about before I give you where I think house prices are going to go is materials have gone up that means new build properties are more expensive to build labor is more expensive for those properties as well and so they are going to not drop prices on new build property significantly what would more likely happen is they would pause building if the market did start crashing they would pause new projects because if they did that that means that they could get a higher premium for the projects that they had left and that is a key consideration here as well it’s very important to understand that building materials cost weight is all these things are a big factor in building properties and they’re not going to build at a loss they would just simply stop projects so all of these things factored in right now on a 12-month annual basis we are up 1% I don’t think it’s going to be so Rosy I think we are going to be down by the end of this year but not as bad as people might think I think that we will be down just under half a percent I think we’re going to see a Slowdown in the market now and the reasons for that are things like the election so a lot of people are just pausing making decisions because of the general election so that puts transactions behind maybe some sellers will cut prices because they’re not getting viewings because of that I think that we people will want to wait and see what happens with the new government I think if there’s any delay in any of these things like interest rate Cuts Like inflation going down that will delay people’s buying decisions as well and all of these things factored in I don’t think we’re going to have a crash this year I think we’re going to have a drop of around half a percent that is on average house prices now bigger properties will probably drop more whereas smaller properties where people downsize will probably increase that’s what I think will happen let me know your thoughts in the comments do smash like it’s not often I share opinion I’m often sharing news so I’d love to know what you think on that do smash like do subscribe go and check out some more content on my channel incl cluding this video right here