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    welcome to the butterfly effect I’m Chris this is stage one of dolphin a 2024 today’s race at 172.5 km long we’ll call it 110 miles in length only three categories climb but they come in the first half of the stage so we won’t even see it when the cameras come on proper cameras will shine on to the two Riders up the road with about just under 80 km a go we’ll call it 77 two Riders up there Lear from AR samsi and Donovan from q36.5 those two Riders got about 3 minute 15 second gap on the pelaton be behind being led by two teams there l l TX right in the front if you watch beyond the coverage I told you little Trek would ride the front here on this stage one they’ll probably ride on stage five because mads Patterson is in the race here he’s one of two quality sprinters here at dolphin a there’s not very many but the second quality Sprinter Sam Bennett he’s got his team on the front too so we got two teams up there we got Li l track on the front and of course we got ag2r de cathon R in the front both with top sprinters that’s why they’re right now when we start looking at the teams here when we look at lell Tre remember they got a couple guys here that are going to be trying to go for a little bit more in GC Chone is trying to recover from a Saddles swur at the beginning of the season and now tail gagin Hearts this is time to shine because we’re getting ready to go into the tour to France tail gagin Hart’s had a little bit of a quieter season he’s been solid by all means but he doesn’t have a big result and this kid is won the Geral so here at Dolph this important marker that means a little track if you’re going to ride one Rider up there Verona on the front all day you’re going to lose him and you’re not going to have your two climbers at the Finish we got seven man teams here that means there’s four guys left three to lead out one matz Pon when we start getting into the interviews we’re going to see Rim cool he says exactly like I told you guys yesterday he’s interested in getting to the Finish safely he wants the form to continue the build he wants to build everything up because he has to torto France coming later we’ll see how the Belgium kid rides here at dolphan a whether or not if he’s willing to ride for GC or not if he has that form now the next interview is going to be from Primos Rog my big- time favorite here at dolphan a because Primos Rog the Slovenian is a Monster Rider and the closest thing to T pacha’s abilities that I’ve seen here in the European pelaton you as V go a little bit on the GC stage racing gr tour side bu Primos roget is a one-day racer he’s a onewe racer regardless of chrisan what Christian vanderfield tells you here if you’re watching it live where he says he’s a onewe racer he is a one-day rider that’s why he’s one Le best on Le H he’s one we Rider he is certainly a grand tour winner cuz he has won multiple grand Tours three at the Balta one at the jro so he’s fabulous now when we start looking at those two guys’ interviews when we look at Primos rust again he’s saying okay the main thing here is I’m out of training it’s nice to be at the races and it’s nice to spend time with my team because Primos rogish did Perry n then he went into the bass country and crashed on stage four so he hasn’t had a whole lot of racing with Bor hrow his new Squad here in 2024 that that’s why he’s talking about jelling with his team some but jelling with his team and winning Dolan has to be up there but you know Primos rogish he always downplays his interviews now once we start getting into the into further into the stage we’ll see the two Riders up front they start losing some time once you cross the finish line with that they’re going to do two laps on so they’ll see the finish line three times as the two Riders up front Mark Donovan and our samsi writer liur once they were coming in the last 1K before the Finish Line crosses the first time you can see it’s all downhill coming in the finish that means it’s super fast straight roads all the way in the Finish then you see the two Breakaway leaders come into the right bin with about 200 met to go and exit with 150 so you know the pelaton behind is going to want to get this dialed in perfectly so that when they come by two times later they’ll have they’ll have an idea of how the Sprint train wants to go when we’re talking or the cathlon h2r and when we’re talking L out Trek as we see the pelaton falling behind they’re at about two two 2 minutes and 30 seconds on the two Breakaway Riders now like I said I’m watching peacock Christian vanderfield Bob roll and as we start seeing once they cross the finish line as we start seeing some action happening at the front it’s going a little bit curb to curb but we still see that we got the little Tre Rider on the front oh we know all the GC teams though are getting interested because we see borans grow up there with rooll GES team we see UAE te memores they come stacked here wanting to win I’m sure with that Uso and we start seeing the other teams with sprinters mixed in as it’s getting a little nervous with about 45 km to go we’ll see Sam Bennett he’ll get a rear wheel change then we see Christian vanderfield and Bob R talking about hey he looks a little calm here he looks like he’s he’s been winning before here at the tour to France so now he looks calm guys there’s two Riders up the road of course he’s calm there’s no there was 45 kilometers to go Sam Bennett is calm right now because nothing’s happening okay we’ll see him get back on we’ll see him catch up to the back there he’s got his teammate we see Rim coo pull back there everybody’s calm we come across the finish line again with 30 km to go the gap’s down to about 1 minute 10 seconds on the two laders now things start getting a little bit more interesting a little more stressed in the pelaton as the GC guys are starting to battle left and right we come in and we look at the back of the pelaton that right there is viz misea bike Steven kwick at the back of the pelaton and Christian vanderfield saying I like this strategy I like that visma Lisa bike are willing to let Steven kwick sit back here if he’s not racing for GC there’s no reason up there at the front I’m sitting on a Chester film like Christian vanderfield you’re a knucklehead what are you thinking this guy is paid to win races we are at dolphin a this is only three weeks away from the tour to France proper with a couple days here there to add on to that we know that right now stepen kwick should be coming on form if I backed up the film The years past Stephen kwick has been on form here at dolphin a riding at the back of the pelaton with the kind of salary this kid makes when they need some results right now and remember Steven kwick has to be good good for the Tor to France cuz Jonas V go may not be and if we look at some of the interviews from the American Jorgenson the Americans said we have sep cus riding for GC here and we have me riding for GC and it’s kind of a nice chemistry because he can time trial he can do the the less hiler stuff and then the last three days we know on the last three Mountain Stage so they’re both GC Riders but they’re both a little bit slightly different which I’d agree with but I won’t agree with Steven kwick right at the back of the pelaton along with a lot of times Vis molisa bike riders are back there now it just takes a few more kilometers to go by and then then there’s a crash Steven kwicks held up in the back there that’s why I don’t like my guys back there there’s no way I’d pay this guy that kind of money sit at the back of the Pelon when you got GC guys that can win here at dolphin a Christian vanderfield you can pay him the few million dollars that that he’s been paid at VI molisa bike but there’s no way I’m going to do it now we start getting up to the front of the Pelton curb to curb still full gas all the GC teams up there with the exception of V Melisa bike they’re always in the a little further in the middle or at the back of the Pelon and once we come into 16 km to go we’re going to see the two Breakaway Riders wrapped up once they’re wrapped up there’s going to be some pictures up on the peacock screen there of the four Americans riding in the race here we know it’s sep cus Jorgenson here his teammate we know Sean Quinn who is the current US Pro Road champion and then he’s doing an interview in his interview he said he’s been training good he won the US Pro Jersey just before he came over and did tour of Alps but then he said his form dropped he says sometimes you just don’t know why it drops but it can’t be gone in a week well Sean Quinn maybe you should call me cuz there’s always a reason why you’re form drops and if it was good over in the US when you won US Pro championships if you went over the tour of the Alps first off those two races are completely different so he might add a drop in the form just because one’s in the mountains and one’s not in the mountains and one has a higher quality level field and one has a lesser quality field so it might have dropped for that but if you did actually feel a drop in your form it’s because something you did wrong from the flight from the US traveling all the way over to Europe and then getting yourself over here to dolphin a but good luck hopefully he’ll his form will start to return once he gets some steady racing in his legs again now we get back into the action at the front of the pelaton we’re coming in the 12 km to go once you look at the back of the field there it’s Luca from albine dunic who has a rear flat he pulls over the side of the road Bob roll from peacock he says I’d be surprised if he could get back onto the pelaton now Bob what are you guys talking about what is all this talk about not being able to get back onto the back of the pelaton with 12 km to go I covered it at the jur the Italia when it happened on the last final stage there when Johnny mign went off the B and we saw Robbie mcguan and we saw Sean Kelly saying oh this impossible never get back onto the back of the Pelon with 9.3 km to go I said then they were wrong and here with 12 kilm to go what is Bob roll saying that he’d be surprised if Luca can get back to the pelaton when you’re talking about a rider getting a flat back there the only time they don’t get back is if the officials pull the car we saw that at trino adriatico with Mark Cavendish when they pulled the car from Mark Cavendish and then the Gap went so big that Mark Cavendish didn’t have the power to get back up to the back of the Pelon but as long as they leave the car as long as it’s a wide Road especially like on stage one he’s going to get back on no problem he will get back on he’ll finish with the front group when it’s all said and done but while he was back there changing his rear wheel it was time for an attack the attack’s coming from UAE memat Neils plette as Pet’s throwing in attack I’m saying like CCH like oh man this is a knucklehead move what are you doing Neil’s pette attacking right now you got guys that can win the general classification here with aayo okay Primos rug which is the hands down outright favorite REM Co to pull after him but AO is almost in that ability and could be certainly better than REM coo if he really hasn’t come in here with good form Primos Rog we saw him at Perry n he dropped a little bit too so if these two Riders are slightly off AO is the hot handed favorite here to win dolin and we Neils pette going up the road I’m sitting there like what are you doing there’s no reason for this you are not paid to go up the road right now and try to win stage one because even if you’re up there you’re probably not going to win it and if you look at what’s happening in the back that means AO is going to have less guys around him because they bring more climbers here Neil’s pette is ideal for this stage to look after the GC guys well of course he gets wrapped up was 10 kilometers to go things are getting interesting EF education throwing a half-hearted attack that gets brought back to you we’re coming in 8 km to go we got two teams on the front Enos is on the front if I backed the film all the way up to the beginning Enos have been sitting first position behind the writers doing the work on the front all day long behind them borrow UAE team Ms fdj and pseudo quick step’s always been at the front but now it’s 8 km to go anos are pulling like a madman at the front they come out of the right turn UA you youo X pulls straight over to the left and inos is on the right split wide road then you know X decide well this is the wrong spot to be on the left they move all the way over to the right and then one of the young kids decides he’s going to move all the way back over to the left again so it’s a drag race on basically a four-lane road here super wide they’re going fast we’re talking 60 to 85 km an hour right now and we’re getting under 7 kilm to go Enos are still at the front but it’s going curb to curb there’s action all over the place you look from the helicopter angle down you see all the GC teams up there and the Sprinter teams are starting to get in the picture because when we look over to the right side once we’re coming about 4 km to go the right side is the cathon ag2r with Sam Bennett the h-h handed favorite here to win along with mads Pon my pick if you watched beyond the coverage yesterday Bob roll says they’re a little bit under staff there but five six guys looks pretty professional to me I don’t know what Bob rol seeing go over to the left side all of a sudden we see little TR coming up the left side they got four Riders there Tom squinge Alex kers let’s back the film up all the way to dors D Vander when when kers Alex kurur had crashed hard there the same time when Matts Pon had crashed this is their comeback races Matts Pon of course continued the race of Classics but since the classics this is his first race back and in his interview if I back the film up a little bit his interview says of course he wants a shot at winning today stage one and he says he hasn’t done any altitude training this is my man right here I know Victor kamput is my real man but this interview right here is one of the Rarities that you see when a writer says I’ve been home the whole time I haven’t been at itude we’re talking mad Pon says I’ve been spending time with my wife but I’ve been training professionally and I’m ready to go and ready to win stages so we look back there on the left side once we come down under four kilometers to go still four guys there mads Pon and last guy first guy in front of him Ryan Gibbons then in front of Ryan Gibbons that’s Alex kers and then is Tom squinch now they’re coming up the left side but they’re not on the front yet we’re coming into about 2.1 km to go we’ll see ag2s coming up the right side they’re getting on the front Enos are disappearing from the picture now cuz they’re a GC team and we under 3 km ago wise riding here from Enos throughout this whole stage one now ag2 RS on the front but look over there when we look on the left side Li elrex with Tom squinge he’s flying up the left side and he’s taking over the front at about 1.4 kilm to go ag2r started losing the battle but Tom squin is going to throw his elbow out so once he throws his elbow out it’s 1.3 km to go and it’s time for Alex Cur to do phenomenal work here on stage one if he’s got the legs if he’s recovered from dwarf D vanderin and if his training’s been perfect now we come into 1K to go we look over to the right side it’s the front Rider there for ag2r he’s starting to blow as we see Dorian godon start to blow we know it’s Nelson Ola n Olivera excuse me that’s on the front for Sam Bennett they’re panicking on the right side they got to move over to the left Olivera is doing everything he can with Sam Bennett on his well Alex Cur from Li track front we see second that’s Ryan Gibbons on his wheels Matts Pon as ag2r starting to slot over but they’re like Fifth and seventh row back there Nelson ol when we start looking at the at the helicopter shot he’s starting to move up front but we go up to the front of the Pelon with 700 600 meters to go it’s time right now for the front rider for Li l Trek to pull off as Alex kers has used up all his energy pulling from 1.3 all the way into about 700 600 meters to go as Alex kers is starting to pull off let’s back the film up just a hair and let’s see what’s happening with ag2r de cathon as Nelson Oliva there n Olivera is coming up the right side he’s got Sam Bennett on his wheel but then at the same time when Alex kers is starting to pull off n Olivera he’s pulling off to the inside there to the left look how he looks over his shoulder he sees it’s clear he moves over that allows Sam Bennett to move up but Sam Ben is still sitting about fifth sixth row back there because he’s got two Li l truck riders in front of him he’s got Fred right up there and he’s got ventury there from Mar samik we’ll see now as the Sprinter Sam Bennett ag2r comes up he’s going to lean meard give the little bump over there onto Venturi as Fred wri’s giving the bump on the leapin there from DSM let’s look from the front angle as the speed’s really getting fast here on stage one we go to the front we look at the foot coming out of the pedal there from the DSM Rider and S Bennett’s going to come flying around leapin he’s going to pull in just behind there when we’re talking Fred Wright now we’re starting to come up to that last B at 200 meters to go but we’re still at 350 because once we look at the front of the Pelon Ryan gibons is throwing in his huge acceleration for mads pson with that acceleration he knows he’s got to go into 200 M cuz that’s the last final bin here on stage one he going with everything he’s got mad P’s locked on his wheel now we go to the helicopter angle and we look right there as we see Sam Bennett he’s going to bump with Fred Wright he’s taking Fred Wright straight off the wheel mat Pon wins this battle no problem Fred Wright knows it so he’s out in the wind as they’re starting the bend here with 200 met to go 150 M to go as they exit the bin Ryan Gibbons he pulls off hard to the left it’s time for mads Pon to go to work did he need some altitude training we’re going to find out here in 150 M cuz mads Pon throws everything in the pedals we look second wheel that right there Sam Bennett he’s trying to throw in acceleration moves out at about 100 meters to go but 75 meters to go Sam Bennett sits down on the saddle his chance of winning the stage Victory here at dolphin a stage one anyway is over as M Pon celebrates as he comes across the line second on the stage Sam Bennett third be Hugo P from from aner Marche back there to round out the podium as Fred Wright’s form drop being pushed out in the wind there from s Bennett he’ll finish eighth on today’s stage now let’s look at the back of the picture as we see that mat P’s coming across with a victory salute look at his teammate back there when we’re talking Ryan gibons on the left side he’s celebrating the same time this a great picture right here and when we look at the interview afterwards from mat pson after his big victory salute right here he talks about in his interview that his team was perfect on today’s race they were perfect if I was picking it apart a little bit I’d say Ryan Gibbons was maybe just a hair out to the left where if we had a better quality field here maybe another team would have come up the right side there and blocked in matz Pon but because the fields a little bit less because ag2r de cathlon Dorian godon came up a little bit short we know that Sam Bennett had to do a little bit too much work and couldn’t come around the wheel there of Mads Pon in the Finish or up the right side of the fencing there when we know Ryan Gibbons left a little bit of the door open and they’re coming into that right turn either way I agree with Matt Pon that their team was as close to perfect as you can get but what I don’t agree with is mads pson says well we have the Jersey so we’re gonna honor the jersey and ride tomorrow ride in tomorrow stage two Matt Pon l l TR DS director sport teeth you guys are Knuckleheads if you ride tomorrow to defend the race leaders jersey here for l l Trek Matts pson you are a sprinter you are not going to have the jersey at the end of tomorrow’s race which you yourself even admitted his words not mine that he’s not going to have the Jersey so why would you honor the jersey and ride in tomorrow stage two if you need any proof go back to stage two of the jural det tell you where Enos rote on stage two and the Slovenian waxed him and put himself in the pink jersey at the Jal right now tomorrow we don’t know where Primos RIT is form is but you do not want to ride for the other Slovenian here Primos Rog at dolphan on stage two don’t ride at all if anything better yet act like you’re going to ride let a huge break go up the road back off the gas forc Bor Hans grow UAE memor and forc Pudo quickstep to decide if they’re going to ride for the Belgium kid Rim coip but do not put your guys on the front because tail gagen Hart is going to need all of the help he can get and tomorrow finish is going up a category two climb then a category three climb which means if it’s a category three climb and boransir have no teammates left which I would be surprised if that was the case but if they have no teammates left for Primos rage all of a sudden it could turn into a tactical battle on a category 3 climb which is absolutely when you want to attack GC favorites is when it’s a category 3 not when you’re on a 20% climb you don’t want to attack then you want to attack when the climb is a little bit less and when the riter’s isolated so mads Pon please do not ride your team on the front tomorrow L out track just to honor the Jersey that’s a knucklehead move and we already saw it on stage two of the Jal like And subscribe I’ll see you guys real soon for stage two of dolphin a

    22 Comments

    1. Mads said afterwards they would not try keep the yellow. It will be difficult enough to come in with the lead due to the stage profile and the others favs will not let him commit to a break with other riders.

    2. Thanks! Would it hae been better to throw all the might behind Jai instead. He is younger and one of the things that held him back last year was the lack of good domestiques. Primoz is still excellent, but it is Jai's time.

    3. Well I mean doing no altitude before the days of biological passport is all very well because you can manipulate the blood values more without getting caught, but these days with the biological passport now that they can only micro dose it makes more sense to go altitude

    4. 2nd stage today… if Primož somehow wants to be close to Pogačar on Tdf 24….. he has to start showing his muscles and picking up the pace so that the others will breathe…. if he doesn't… he will be on tdf.. .maybe among 10…Pogačar is brutally strong this year…the question is why…but that's another topic…

    5. I think Milan got relegated for taking too much of a tow so having a puncture with a few K's to go usually means curtains. MIlan is a bad example. I wish GC Teams would collaborate in the last 10 k's as the Sprinters Teams don't have the Gas to pull until 800m to go. Ineos, Boro and Quick Step can do this and would clear out the legs too. No sprint trains any more. :/

    6. Love your breakdown of the races! I have an off-season show idea if you haven't already done it. I would be fascinated to hear about the logistical challenges, nutrition/hydration, maintenance, how teams rapidly acquire kit/bikes in whatever the race leader's color is, vehicle load plan, etc.

    7. Great insight as always! Btw you said Nelson Oliveira´s name right the first time! It´s Nelson as you said it first and not "Nielsen"! 😉

      Cheers!

    8. Hi Chris
      This is what Mads said about altitude training in December.
      I fucking hate it. No, I won't do it, even if my coach says so. Even if I can gain two or three percent with that. I tried it once, somewhere in France, and that was the worst experience ever

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