In Hungary, the European campaign turned into a much larger domestic political struggle, and while Viktor Orbán might hope for a right-wing landslide in Brussels, it is not him, but Marine Le Pen, and more importantly, Giorgia Meloni who are pulling the strings. At the same time, president Emmauel Macron has a clear vision for Europe (and possibly himself after the end of his time in office) – but whether Hungary can be convinced not to obstruct strategic decisions remains unknown.
In this English language episode of our current affairs show, Iván László Nagy discussed the European elections, Marine Le Pen’s move to the centre, Giorga Meloni’s narrow path to success, and Emmanuel Macron’s plans with Vincent Collen, the deputy foreign desk editor of Les Echos.
Check out our previous interviews in English:
Guy Verhofstadt: https://on.soundcloud.com/PevL3cUnXCjvP3Sb8
Ukrainian journalists: https://youtu.be/GC7Q1gf5Moc
Ingmar Nevéus (Swedish journalist): https://youtu.be/jXZXgE4hmro
Wojciech Przybylski: https://on.soundcloud.com/dsgaaXgASaQKFdKH7
Sergei Guriev: https://on.soundcloud.com/WgsyWAHvyN4MmjT49
0:00 Intro
0:51 From a foreign point of view, what stood out the most in the Hungarian campaign so far?
1:50 Coverage of Péter Magyar’s rise in the international press
3:24 Could the split between Rassemblement National and AfD be a turning point in bringing together a coalition?
8:25 Which right-wing parties of ECR and ID could be part of Meloni’s „super-group”?
12:10 What would Meloni’s best choice be out of her options?
15:32 Can we really expect a right-wing landslide in the EU elections?
17:59 Exactly how is Marine Le Pen moving to the centre?
21:40 Are there any parties emerging in the far-right vacuum?
23:17 Macron’s Sorbonne-speech
25:56 Is there any debate on Macron’s succession within Reneissance?
26:41 How could Macron appease Viktor Orbán, so that he doesn’t obstruct the European decision-making?
32:08 Is Macron a visionary?
33:35 Is this current European election really an exceptionally important one?
welcome to this unusual English language episode of the podcast my name is Ivan n and today I have a very special guest coming on while the European parliamentary elections has clearly turned into a much larger political struggle in Hungary we must not forget that whatever happens in the 9th of June might still determine the future of the European project I will soon be joined by vanan colan the deputy foreign desk editor of Liz Co France’s number one economic News Daily to discuss the potential consequences of the European vote the potentiality of a conservative Coalition in Strasburg Emanuel macron’s vision for Europe and of course Victor orban’s role in the proceedings if you’re new around here be sure to check out all our previous English language episode in the description and if you’re usually following us in Hungarian the Clos captions will soon be available for this episode vanan thank you so much for coming on the show Hi Ian before we start you’ve been keeping a close eye on the Hungarian campaign and you’ve been following Hungarian politics for a while and now you’re here on a reporting trip what stood out to you the most in the past couple of months in Hungarian politics from a foreign point of view I must say I I imagine it’s the same for Hungarian people it’s Peter magar’s um uh rise it was uh for us as I think for hungarians a very big surprise when he when he came out in uh in February and started uh his campaign so there is uh some uh expectancy I think from uh other European uh countries uh the question of course is will he have a good score at the at the vote on on June the 9th and will this in some way um be a threat to uh fides and Victor orban’s power in in Hungary I think that’s the question uh European people are asking themselves as far as I know Hungary has been on the headlines for a for the past couple of years in Europe and everything that has gone under the radar in the international press for very long it’s now an everyday topic has pit and maa’s Rise been well covered is it something that interests people who are involved in European Affairs or is it something that remains kind of a specialist topic for specialist journalists I must say it is I mean Hungarian uh politics uh I’m speaking mainly for France which is uh which is my country uh I would say that 95% of the French public have absolutely no idea what’s going on in Hungary although Victor Alban has been here for almost 15 years many people would I mean in the general public would barely know his name and have maybe a general idea of who he is but uh they they don’t follow what’s uh what’s going on and the coverage of Peter magia’s rise there have been some articles uh in the in the written press um uh but only a few uh I’m hoping that it will change in the future we’ll see what happens on on June the 9th but for the time being I must say I would say it it remains a topic uh inside the the the bubble and especially the Brussels bubble people who deal with European Affairs in in Brussels they follow this very closely because they’re hoping um uh something can change we’re going to circle back to France and Hungary later but for now let’s get on to the main topic of our conversation today it has been for a very long time Victor orban’s dream to put together a conservative Coalition or far-right Coalition how however you want to call it in in Brussels but it’s not actually him but but the German afd who’s going to who may catalyze this process uh just for for our viewers and listeners who might not have followed um in the in the past week if I remember correctly it was um kmal Marin lez party which broke up with afd following the China Gate scandal and and other radical statements that afd had made in the past couple of months and um and many observers um view this as a turning point in trying to bring together a coalition and and as a and and a turning point for Marine Le Pen to kind of break up with the radicals and move to the center a little bit and have a more representable character much like how George Maloney did in Italy my question is do you see this split between and AF the as a turning point in this process well to start with you have to as you’ve just explained uh it’s uh Marin Len’s campaign is she’s talking to the French public of course because th those are her voters and she’s aiming for the presidential election in France which is in 2027 uh and so the split between and the German afd should be first of all seen as a French politics uh strategy by Marine Leen she’s trying to uh normalize herself she’s been trying and some and I must say sometimes struggling to do this for the past uh few years she can’t be seen as an ally of afd who just said that uh um SS um um people in Germany during the war were okay sometimes so she had I think she had no choice she had to um she had to split with them and but then the question is what this mean it’s your question uh in terms of European politics and that’s a very hard question to answer right now I think we’ll have to wait for after the election but what we do know now is that the group in the European Parliament where um today Marine Leen uh sits with the German afd and also the Liga in uh Italy and um from FB in Austria and G Fidel’s party in the in the Netherlands is um uh is exploding because uh they’ve decided most of the parties have decided to go with Marin Leen and um divorce with afd so basically the this group which is called ID in the European Parliament it no longer exists and now everything is up in the air we don’t know uh what’s going to happen after the election uh Victor Orban has uh stated officially uh a couple of months a few months ago that he wanted to join the other radical right Group which is called ECR and comprises of uh Georgia mone’s Fratelli Talia Spain’s uh VX and other um and uh law in Justice from law in Justice from Poland yes of course and also the um the Czech prime minister’s um uh party so what we know is Victor auban has officially stated that he wanted to join this party the other question is can Marine Leen also join this party uh up until very recently she seemed to be um to be very reticent to to do this she she is an ally of Mato salvini of the Leo in Italy and not of Georgia Milani but recently she’s given statements uh showing that she wants to uh get closer to uh Georgia milone she appeared uh two weeks ago in Madrid at um uh rally of uh the ECR uh European parties um which was a first and what was very well noted by observers because it was it was new so everyone now is wondering if Marine Leen will be able to join ECR with will the other parties inside ECR and notably uh Georgia milone frat Italia will they want this and what will Victor Orban uh do will he manage to join ECR um I’m sorry I I don’t think it’s it’s also not just a question of Desire but between these two groups while they might seem similar for the naked eye there’s there’s significant differences so they might agree on the principles of right-wing populism in the 21st century such as their stance and immigration but and and and you know the Sovereign nationalist narratives but at the same time we see there’s clear splits over let’s say Russia which is at the same time I believe the most burning question for for Europe I mean it’s well signaled in their parts and names as well like European conservatives and reformers and identity and democracy it’s clear which one is a bit more moderate and a bit which one’s is a bit more radical I’m curious about your opinion do you think that these parties could put their differences aside is it possible to imagine all of them coming together under one block or is it going to be cherry-picking by by Georgia Maloney to select which of which of these radicals are quite moderate enough to work together with who do you think could potentially be part of a coalition like this and do you think that Victor Orban would have a place in this well that’s exactly the question I mean you summed it up uh completely um uh of course Russia is and and the war in Ukraine is is a clear divide between ECR who is um which is a a more atlanti um uh group of parties and ID which are traditionally for example the in France uh also bit anti-American so this seems uh from a geopolitical point of view a very clear divide the problem is and I I can see this clearly in France um most of a huge majority of Voters of theem national have no idea of this they vote for marine Leen because of what she’s uh proposing for France they have no idea of what um what her foreign policy stance uh is and I must say um in Western Europe and in France in particular the war in Ukraine was very high in the headlines at the beginning of the war in 2022 it’s much less the case now and you can very clearly see it in the in the campaign today for the European elections it’s not um it’s not very high on the agenda in uh in the debate um so yeah the question is uh I mean it’s very I think it’s the question you’re asking is uh is the question that everyone uh will will want answered after uh the 9th of June will these parties who have a very different stance uh on the war in Ukraine be able to work together in the European Parliament or not I must say to their defense that the of these parties there are some huge splits inside every uh group in the European Parliament I’m thinking for example of renew which is the the Centrist group where macron macron’s Emanuel macron’s party um uh sits for example they have a huge split on pretty much everything with the German uh fdp uh everything that’s um uh budget related uh fiscal policy and they do sit inside the same inside the same group so that’s what’s tricky with Europe politics it’s uh sometimes parties who have very different stances on some on some uh policies still uh sit together in in the European Parliament and it’s not just internal but also external cooperation so if we look at the case of Georgia Maloney what I believe there’s three scripts ahead of her one of them staying as is keeping ECR together leaving ID to do whatever they want to do B option b being trying to cooporate with ID as far as they can as far as it’s rational and option C is also on the table and it’s also been heavily discussed in the press that if ECR were to grow by huge numbers I mean huge numbers proportionately they could well be a power and be a force to Recon with in Strasburg to the extent that more Centrist more moderate parties would also be open to cooperate with them seeing that well this is a huge block of um of MEPS and also seeing that Georgia Maloney is being becoming one of the best strategists in European politics if we were to think with Malone’s head what do you think would be a strategically Sound Decision to make do you think that ECR could actually become uh a block which votes together with the EP or with um or with Renew on certain issues and that they shouldn’t go into this questionable Coalition making with the radicals and just go their own way show strength in numbers and become one of the more established forces in Strasburg and Brussels well that’s yeah everybody I think everybody inside the uh European uh rightwing parties is looking to Georgia Maloney to see what uh what she’s going to do because she’s at the center and to some extent she at least that’s what she wants she wants to be the king maker in the next uh in the next leg legislature um of the of the European Parliament uh the problem that she has um although she’s a very um intelligent strategic person is if she brings in uh parties that are too radical inside ECR for I’m thinking of fides and for example uh she will lose other allies uh inside her parties I’m thinking notably of the checks of ODS she could I think uh deal with that because they they they’re a small Force there are also the Swedish Democrats who would probably uh not agree uh with with that um but then even if she does manage to do this uh there’s a very big risk that EP so the the traditional conservative forces uh inside the European Parliament would not want to uh do have anything to do with ECR um M many parties inside EP would clearly not agree if there was any deal done with ECR if ECR comprised of the or fides so that’s the conundrum that Georg Lon must uh must solve and it’s uh it’s not easy it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens after the election there’s one thing that Victor Orban keeps saying for the past even years not just in the campaign that there’s going to be a right-wing uh landslide in the European parliamentary elections just to clarify this how does it seem from the outside how does it seem from outside the Hungarian campaign bubble are we really expecting a huge break through for rightwing parties and if so which parliamentary which European parliamentary groups could strengthen the most because of this if you look at the polls and the projections of course it’s difficult exercise because there are 27 countries but they’ve been fairly um uh trust trusted in the in the past uh elections so if we look at these projections it’s not a landslide there is a a big rise of the two radical right groups uh ECR and ID it seems um that they will have much more um uh MP me p s uh than they do uh today but then if you look at the other parties it’s not there there aren’t some any huge uh changes uh and I’m thinking mainly of the two uh uh big center right uh EP and Center left snd parties if you look at the polls they would have more or less the same number of MEPS as uh they do today um so it would be at the cost of the greens and the left if I’m yeah the green the left and the center uh mainly because of of macon’s unpopularity in France because he’s the dominant Force inside uh inside Renu the Centrist party so renu and the greens are set apparently to lose a lot of uh of MEPS so there would be a shift to the right because of the rise of these two radical right parties and the fall of the greens and uh the cists but it wouldn’t be a landslide and it would still be very difficult for the for George milone to do what she’s dreaming of what she’s done in Italy at a national level to to have an alliance between uh EP so traditional conservatives ECR and ID on a European level that’s that’s what she would what she wants but it’s really very uncertain that she will manage to do that right let’s go back to France for a moment we’ve already mentioned Marin Len’s move to the center could you go into a little bit more detail on that could you explain how this looks because it is something that we’ve seen in Hungary we’ve seen radical radical yic trying to move to the center which only worked to a certain extent obviously we’ve had kind of a similar situation with a charismatic leader but in France makon never seemed as strong as of an opponent as Victor Orban in Hungary so could you kind of map out how it looks how different is Mari Leen of 2024 than than her of 2022 or or prior to that well the main uh change that uh is um very high in the news today because it’s the European election is um is theal stance on Europe uh five years ago she wanted to uh leave the EU the the fit and leave the euro uh go back to the to the French Frank and now there is absolutely no talk of this it’s uh she wants to stay inside the EU and change it from the inside exactly like um Georg milone so she’s she’s still very Euros skeptic but she understood that it was not a good um idea to um to ask for fit and uh and executing the Euro i i a majority of French voters even her voters do do not want this uh I imagine there’s too much uncertainty people are wondering what it would mean for them it would be very complicated they’re seeing what how brexit is going in the in the UK so it’s not a theme that brings her any any vote so she decided to completely abandon this and now mcon and the other uh French parties are struggling to um explain to the French voters uh you can’t vote for this party they you they can’t be trusted 5 years ago they they had this this policy of leaving um the EU now they want to stay but apparently French voters don’t uh give a damn excuse my French um about this and uh Jordan bardel who is the the head of the national list for the European election is very high in the polls he’s never been as high some polls are giving him as much as 33% of the vote uh and mcon would be very very far behind with only uh 16 17% at least less than 20% in the polls it is the European election so there’s going to be I mean the the the turnout is traditionally low lower than national elections I mean it’s normally a protest vote you you can make you can make a choice in the middle of a in the middle of a parliamentary cycle you will always go against the current leader exactly and people know that there’s no um direct impact of uh what’s going to happen in France it will change uh to some extent the European Parliament but but that’s it so there’s less risk and so the protest vote is easier in the so it’s difficult to to to say what this really means for uh French politics although it is the last um national uh non-local election before the presidential election in in 2027 so everybody is looking at it very very closely because it will be a very strong signal and one more thing about this shift to the center in in Hungary we’ve seen that it has also come come with a cost that when a far right party moved to the center there’s going to be another farri right party emerging in their vacuum to kind of sweep up those who are now aliena by Centrist uh policies and we’ve seen this with the rise of miank our homeland in in Hungary is it not happening behind Marin Leen in in France because in the previous elections we’ve seenu being this kind of even further right uh option is he or is any other uh candidate on the further right having arise because of leen’s move to the center yes as you said during the presidential election in 202 uh it was Eric Zur came out as a real threat for the and Marine Leen today it’s much less the case he’s much lower in the polls his list uh who’s led by uh Mario marishal is around 7% I think in most polls now which is uh not very high it’s there’s there’s also a threat that she would have less than 5% and have no MEP um at all in in Strasburg so for now it seems that this threat with you which you pointed out uh for still exists but it’s um not as high as it used to be Let’s Talk About Emanuel maon a month ago he returned to San University to reintroduce his Visions for Europe and I’m saying reintroduce because it was really the read ation of his 2017 speech at sorbon and what he outlined was a more Sovereign more Federal Europe which is capable of Defending itself and which is a stronger economic Force One that sits at the same negotiating table as China and the US what did you make of this sban speech and what do you think it would take for macon’s Visions to materialize in Europe the impact of the speech um in the days following this this speech although of course most uh French voters did not listen to the speech it was almost two hours long and it was sometimes very technical but he also from abroad it looked very important and obviously we know that maon is a great rator and he’s he’s somewhat of a Philosophers as he likes to call himself so it was a grand speech from our point of view so wasn’t VI like this in France it he did use uh I think that the the the key word in his um in his speech that uh I think um maybe um made it to the general public was Mor Europe is uh mortal Europe can can die um and what the posters said is that this did had an impact at least for some days after the after the speech of mobilizing his um his his voters uh so we did see a small uptick of his party running in the polls after the after the speech uh it didn’t it didn’t last long and um apparently it’s not having a big impact in macon’s electorate he’s having a very hard time because uh some of his as you know he’s in the center of the French political landscape so some of his voters are going to and some of the some of them are going to the left because they think that his policy in France was to right-wing in the last few uh years and and and months recently so he’s really struggling to um keep his key uh uh voters with him and mobilizing them a lot of them are are going to um not turn out in the at The Ballot Box on June the 9th and some of them are going to vote on the right and some of them are going to vote on the left is there any debate on his succession in France the party yes there is but it’s very very um uh uncertain we have really no it’s it’s in three years time as you know so it’s it’s still a long way out and um that’s the big question it’s very difficult to uh say if uh Marine Leen has a real chance of winning in 2027 or not because we don’t know who will be her main um her main opponent and uh right now it’s difficult to say who will um succeed maon in in 27 27 which is a which is a a big question and about Pon we’ve discussed many times his his um well his mandatory departure from office in 2027 but what is clear to be seen about him is that he’s still very young he’s not going to be even 50 by the time he he leaves office and he has clear plans for a European future I think you don’t have to be an analyst to point out that he is seeking to become European leader in some form in sometime in the future and what’s also important to realize is that ever since Angela Amica left office in Germany there has been a kind of power vacuum as in who’s the strongest leader within the European Union and the past couple of years and especially the past couple of months have shown that it is Emanuel Macon who’s aiming for this position who aiming for France to take a leap to kind of Leap Frog Germany in in the conversation about who really is the leader of of the European Union and the same way Ang americle had to deal with the Orban problem there is a huge uh obstacle for every Vision that Emmanuel M has for Europe which is called Hungary which is called Victor Orban do you think that macron has the capabilities of appeasing Victor Orban to an extent that he doesn’t obstruct strategic European decision- making what is there that France could offer for Hungary so that vikor Orban stops being problematic because we saw that in the case of Germany it was the industry it was the car industry and it was the Industrial ties which were which were the key keys to a p Orban what do you think that macron has to offer that’s a very uh tricky question first of all the personal relationship between Victor Orban and Emanuel macron is uh something of a other puzzle uh his um at the in macron’s entourage they uh often point out that they have good a good personal relationship which is uh a bit strange because they they then they don’t agree on uh a lot of stuff but uh we can actually see it um Victor Orban for example came to have a dinner at the Eliz Palace in in Paris uh I think it was late uh last year before um one of the European uh councils and France is I mean Emanuel macron’s uh team is Keen to uh say that they have an influence on him it’s very difficult to uh see if that’s true because Georg milone says the same thing at the at the last European Council in Brussels she uh said that it was thanks to her that she managed to convince Victor Orban to raise his veto on on European Aid to Ukraine so um it’s I think it’s very difficult to to understand how macron can uh influence uh Victor to what extent he can influence Victor Oban what we do know is that they know each other very well they’re both they’ve been both been sitting of course Victor Oban is the longest sitting um uh head of government in the European uh Parliament so he knows everyone and maon has been there for seven years so so they do know each other very well which helps I imagine and then there’s also as you stated for Germany um the economy and I’m thinking in particular of nuclear France is the leading uh nuclear power I’m I’m talking about civil nuclear of course Europe but also they they only actually in the military way but with Hungary there’s this um there’s this uh partnership in uh for civil nuclear power which is very important for France in terms of uh business and jobs and there’s the it’s already happening uh for the the Hungarian project in in bash I’m not trying to pronounce it well um France is really wants to be uh one of the one of hungary’s hungary’s Partners um for this uh Peter sio was in France last year in uh in a year ago in June and he um he met um the management of EDF the French electricity utility public company uh he traveled to flamville where Ed DF is uh is building its latest epr nuclear reactor so that is one of the strong ties between uh France and Hungary it’s always difficult to understand how this influences the rest of of politics um because business is business and politics is politics we’ve seen you can see many examples where there’s no link nuclear is special because it’s um public uh in France I mean EDF belongs 100% to the state so of course maon is um is dealing with it directly one more thing I would like you to comment on is that in my previous questions I’ve depicted makon as this sort of visionary in in the current European politics is this how you see him from a French point of view as well do you see him having these Grand plans for the future and having this kind of change of tone in the past couple of years cuz from our point of view it seems like I think much less in in the for French voters than outside the the the Brussels bubble and you know people who understand who follow geopolitics and and foreign policy I’m I don’t think the the French voter and specifically the theem national voter um gives him credit for this at all and it’s not something that’s high on the agenda even for the this European campaign you you can uh maybe think that it would for his core electorate that’s for sure but um I don’t think it’s um well if you look at the polls it doesn’t this this speech at the salurn didn’t have uh much of an impact uh at least for now um maybe in the long run it will play in his favor for for pro-european voters uh but right now it’s difficult to see and just to conclude our conversation in Hungary the European parliamentary election is framed as an insanely important moment obviously for fidz they claim this this is a change or die situation it’s either right-wing shift or the death of Europe for the opposition obviously they want to uh make political gains in the domestic front and using this as a kind of stepping stone to once um get Oram out of power do you think that this is really such a momentous um election for the future of the European project how would you explain it to a viewers and listeners what really is at stake at the European parliamentary election is any result that might come on the 9th of June really going to shift the path of Europe or will we still stick to the same old script that whatever happens in the council determines the future of Europe huh that’s a that’s another another difficult uh question because what happens at the European election now can have an impact on the European Council because there are many national elections coming up uh coming up um uh this year in Belgium it’s the same day for example and the as the European election and the far right is going to make some some huge gains in Belgium if if the polls are to be trusted there’s a national election coming up in Austria in the Autumn where FB the far right party is also expected to win if you look at the poll so there’s there’s a link between the two which is very important and then um even if the shift to the right is not that huge uh in the European Parliament what we can expect that is that it will be more fragmented there will be more parties that have enough MEPS to have an influence and that will probably have an impact on European policies because it will be more difficult to set up majorities for certain policies uh I’m thinking for example of um environment policies in the in the outgoing Parliament there there’s been a huge push on on green policies with the the green deal it’s very difficult to imagine that this kind of policy could be possible in the next Parliament with such um um a fragmented uh landscape um and then it’s it can also be um a problem for um foreign policy although um although foreign policy is is uh done by the European Council so heads of state and and government uh but there’s still a link with um with the European Parliament we’ve seen it for example with with Hungary for the the parliament has it say on should we block European funds for Hunger well son thank you so much for coming on the show thank youan and for our viewers and listeners thank you so much for your attention see you on Friday goodbye
1 Comment
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