Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern have the economy and global markets “under surveillance”. Their daily conversations with leaders and decision makers from Wall Street to Washington and beyond cover the latest in business, investment, and geopolitics. No other program better positions investors and executives for the trading day.
00:00:00 Bloomberg Surveillance
00:04:44 Angelo Zino, CFRA
00:16:03 Anwiti Bahuguna, Northern Trust Asset Management
00:29:48 Mike Shepard Bloomberg News
00:39:13 Holger Schmieding, Berengerg
00:53:27 Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods
01:05:08 Tobin Marcus, Wolfe Research
01:17:00 Dan Ives, Wedbush
01:29:35 Ashok Bhatia, Neuberger Berman
01:42:06 Sebastien Page, T.Rowe Price
01:55:35 Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence
02:03:13 Michael Mckee, Bloomberg News
02:10:10 Dana Peterson, The Conference Board; Matt Diczok, Bank of America
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What we think we’re going to see is softer inflation and softer activity in labour markets. Early, as you would see a rate cut in depends on what’s happening with the data between now and then would be in September. You’re going to probably see about half of those cuts than what the Fed is currently anticipating. The risk right now is, is that they either hold out and cut too much too quickly and kind of overstimulate things and then have to kind of reverse course. You’re going to get probably an unsustainable boom in 2025. And I think the Fed’s going to have to start rate base is Bloomberg Surveillance with Jonathan Ferro. Lisa Abramowitz and Anne Marie Jordan. Bloomberg Surveillance starts right now. Live from New York City this morning. Good morning. Good morning for our audience. Worldwide equity futures positive on the S&P 500 by 0.5% coming in into Thursday, looking to reclaim all time highs. It’s a beat. It’s a raise. And very it does what in video always does. This is the sell side reaction this morning. Morgan Stanley overweight. No signs of slowing down, powered by another quarter of excellent growth. Wedbush outperform. Lisa, no signs of any pause in demand. We always talk about how much the share price has gone up in the past 12 months. The past 24 months, net profit rose 628% in the past year. Wrap your head around that. This is a company that relies heavily on Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet, and that is a feature, not a bug at this moment. That stock in the pre-market up by 6.6%. Dan Ives of Wedbush joining us a little bit later on. Amery a masterpiece quarter. He does a masterpiece that needs to be hung in the Louvre, the most probably famous museum in Europe and in Paris. Jonathan. And what you’re seeing this morning is not just everyone continue to say that’s bye, but Goldman Sachs first thing out this morning saying, actually we’re going to raise our price target, even I believe it was just this week that they raised their price target from 1100 to 1200. And what was so clear on this call last night is that demand is outstripping supply. And there’s this this insatiable demand, even for some of the older models that Nvidia has north of one in the pre market won’t be for very long. Lisa, We’re getting a ten for one stock split as well. I mean, I always say I take sort of a snobbish view on stock splits. Does it matter? Does it matter? For some people it does so for a lot of people it well, to my son who wants to get into investing, it matters because suddenly it becomes maybe a little bit more affordable. It basically is a nod to retail investors basically saying you can come in here. They also increased their dividend by 150% to $0.10. This was I love this. It was $0.04 and it went to $0.10. It was 150% gain. But it is, you know, a 100% gain. You get $0.10. I was listening to Manus Cranny early this morning and Minnesota now debt. It’s the direction of travel that matters here. And the direction of travel is pretty obvious. Everything is moving up and to the right on the charts and it moves again that way. We’re up by more than 6% in the pre-market on video of the scores, I swear look like this on the S&P 500 positive by 0.5% in the bond market. But a price action yesterday off the back of the Fed minutes. We are down again by a single basis point on a ten year for 41 some of the Fed minutes I have to say was there really any news in this and how dated was it if you thought there was some news in it? Many officials expressed uncertainty over the degree to which policy is restraining the economy. Various officials also mentioned a willingness to raise rates. If Warren said, was that a reason to sell or an excuse yesterday. This, again, has been a Rorschach test. We’ve been talking about that extensively. And pretty much all of the notes that came out afterwards reaffirmed what they thought previously, what this is evidence for, why the people some people pointed to the second thing that you mentioned, that various officials talked about a willingness to raise rates if it was necessary as being something that indicated maybe the specter of higher rates ahead is not totally off the table. Again, were these really changing anything significant? We’ve heard that from individual officials. So to your point, I’m not sure it moves the needle, but it was an excuse to sell. I think there’s some nuance, though, there when the Fed minutes come out and it says many participants commented on the uncertainty about the degree of restrictiveness. I looked at Jay Powell’s testimony from May 1st as his press conference on May 1st. One of his first sentences was Our restrictive stance of monetary policies are putting downward pressure on economic activity. Is he really representing the committee? We’ve been asking that question a few times. How much distances there between Chairman Powell and the rest of the FOMC? And we’ll try to get some answers later on this morning. Coming up this hour, anti-Latino of a far right, as in video delivers once again and a weighty balcony of Northern Trust with giving another boost to equities. And Bloomberg’s Michael Shepherd on the latest antitrust suit out of Washington, D.C. We begin with that top story. And video delivers another bait and Ray sparking a 40 billion stock rally. The AIG giant also rewarding investors with a high dividend and an upcoming stock split. Angelo Zaino covers in video for CFR Rea with a buy rating and one 160 price target. He joins us now. Angelo, first of all, at once again, a B in a race. Your reaction to this one? Yeah, I’m not surprised. Right. So there was definitely some concern, I think, going into the quarter about what the guidance would look like. I think everybody knew it was going to kind of be a beat in terms of the quarter, in terms of the guidance, I think there was some concern kind of going ahead ahead of that kind of Blackwell launch later this year of whether kind of the momentum for these hopper chips would be able to kind of, you know, be able to hold up. And, you know, not only are we seeing it hold up, but the momentum continues to get even stronger than it had been earlier this year. And I think that’s a testament of kind of where, you know, the enterprise spaces where these cloud service providers continue to significantly invest, which we continue where we have told investors, you know, we do believe there is kind of this war in the clouds going on. So all that is continuing to drive this strong demand for embedded GPUs. So that’s Microsoft Alphabet, Amazon. And know, when you think about runway, how long is that runway? What are we talking about here? And I think that’s the answer everybody wants, right? It’s it’s kind of like, you know, when do we start seeing a soft patch here in terms of, you know, some of these cloud service providers? And, you know, our view is just kind of given what these companies just kind of cited in, you know, after they reported Q1 results, I don’t think if you see a soft patch at any point in time here in 2024, and for all intents purposes, all these companies have essentially kind of alluded to higher spending in 2025 as well. I think when you kind of look at the trajectory of, you know, just the four biggest spenders in the U.S. over the last six, seven years, those companies have, you know, essentially tripled their CapEx spend. So there’s really no reason to believe that the CapEx spend environment is going to soften any time in the near future. And that, you know, as long as you continue to see improving dynamics from an end market perspective for these companies, their free cash flow will continue to grow and they will continue to invest heavily on the side of things. So, you know, you’re looking at north of 30% growth in terms of AI spend. We think CapEx spend this year from the big four next year probably decelerate somewhere in the mid-teens perspective, but still a very healthy trajectory. Angelo Nvidia’s market share in A.I. chips is estimated somewhere around 80%. Do they face any real competition? I mean, they they’re not going to be able to sustain the kind of their share position within the broader accelerator space. I mean, what we’ve told investors is expect them to lose share over time, incremental share to the likes of AMD and potentially kind of, you know, other some of these cloud providers designing their own custom silicon chips. Just from an affordability perspective. But that said, NVIDIA will continue to dominate the overall accelerator space, the GPU environment, and more importantly, we do think they continue to take share in terms of the broader data center CapEx dollars out there. So what’s going to happen as you kind of migrate toward Blackwell here is, you know, we expect, you know, greater CPU related revenue. For instance, as you know, Blackwell is really kind of more of this platform oriented company. So, you know, you heard them last night talk about spectrum, which is kind of their new Ethernet offering. On the networking side. I think that’s going to be a multi billion dollar revenue trajectory here in 2025. So there’s a lot more revenue potential outside of GPUs for this company. And that’s really going to help kind of, you know, bolster their revenue trajectory. You’re going where I kind of wanted you to go, Angela, which is the idea that a lot of people have been looking for what the competitive threat to in video is. Maybe that’s the wrong question. Maybe NVIDIA is a competitive threat to AMD and Intel because they’re broadening what they’re offering. They’re moving into personal computers in a way, or they’re trying to, which is sort of new. Since the hyperscalers, the cloud computing service aspect has really been the main driver. What does that do? Is that something that really is an existential threat to Intel and AMD? Yeah. I mean, listen, I think as far as kind of, you know, where India really kind of holds their competitive mode and I think most people aware that is on the software side of things. Right. They absolutely control the entire stack out there. And what Andy has really been able to successfully do on the CPU side of things in terms of taking share from the likes of Intel over the last 5 to 6 years, is really being able to just kind of have, you know, a hardware device out there to really just, you know, be a second alternative out there. You can’t do that on the GPU side of things in terms of a more AI enabled environment because you need the software offering. And essentially Nvidia’s got a two decade kind of head start here relative to the competition. So it’s going to be very difficult for the Andes, Intels of the world to really kind of crack you know, the the the code here in terms of on the Nvidia side of things, in terms of kind of the competitive landscape here. Yeah. I mean, we do think innovation is going to, you know, look to take share here specifically on the CPU side of things and that is somewhat of a threat or a greater competitive threat for the Andes and Intels of the world, especially as we are, we start thinking about kind of kind of, you know, more energy efficiency issues going to going on as you kind of move to these kind of AI workloads out there. So, you know, I think Zuckerberg not too long ago stated that, you know, a greater kind of, you know, energy was more of a bottleneck at this point in time than even getting his hands on GPUs. So that kind of tells you arm based kind of CPUs out there are definitely going to kind of be hotter demand over the next couple of years, and that’s a boon for Nvidia. Andrew Well, given everything you just said, should you have a higher price target for the company? I think the I think the debate here is really kind of what what should be the multiple on this stock. I think a lot of people are kind of wondering, you know, maybe the same thing. You know, this should just be a stock that like trades at a forward multiple closer to 40 or 50 times our view with 35 times at this point in time. But listen, when we think about kind of how to value this name and what the potential value of this company is over time, you know, I think finance 1 to 1 or one kind of tells you the best predictor of the valuation of any company is kind of the present value of a future of free cash flow. Right? And this is a company where, you know, we think is going to generate about 60 billion in free cash flow this year, probably get closer to 80 billion in calendar 2025. And that’s going to start looking at levels that we’re seeing from the likes of Microsoft out there, which is the biggest company out there. So when you kind of think about the free cash flow trajectory out there, there’s definitely upside potential to our 12 month target price. And I think kind of current expectations out there. Angelo, Finance 1i1 would tell you that ten for one stock splits don’t matter. Do they matter? Listen, if you’re asking kind of an analyst point of view, I’d say it doesn’t matter. Right. It’s not going to have an impact on the fundamentals of this company. It’s not going to have an impact on my target price, my estimates or anything like that. But I will say this, that kind of ten for one here, it does matter, I think, to the retail investor out there, you know, maybe some out there that aren’t don’t have as much to invest out there. I think it’s more of a perception thing. I think also, you know, when you think about this ten for one split, it also potentially gets them added It’s a more price weighted index is the one I’m obviously thinking about is the Dow 30. We’ll see if that you know, if that finally happens. But it would make all the sense in the world for Nvidia to kind of get thrown into that into and I appreciate your time this morning as always until I say now that I’ve see Sara with a 1160 price target on a video, we’re trading at 1013 in the pre-market, the stock is up by 6.7%. Plenty more unknown video or a little bit later, we’ll catch up with Dan Ives of Wedbush at 730 Eastern Time. Let’s give an update on stories elsewhere this morning in case your Bloomberg brief, we’re Dani Burger. Hey, Danny. Hey, John. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called for the U.S. and Europe to work together to counter China’s industrial overcapacity. Speaking ahead of a minute with the G7 finance ministers in Italy, Yellen called for a united front. Syphilis collectively recognized the need to protect our workers and businesses from unfair practices and overcapacity threatens the viability of firms around the world, including in emerging markets. I believe it also poses a challenge to China’s growth. Beautiful backdrop for that speech. Now, elsewhere, Nikki Haley has said that she plans to vote for Donald Trump but did stop short of an outright endorsement. Haley, who challenged the former president for the Republican nomination, is the latest Trump critic to back his White House bid. She was speaking publicly for the first time since dropping out of the presidential primary. There she said, quote, Biden has been a catastrophe. So I will be voting for Trump. Now, Wall Street firms are phasing out work from home, and FINRA wants you to know it is not their fault. An official at the Regulatory Authority said yesterday that there is no rule requiring employees to come into the office five days a week. In fact, their new rules that will be implemented soon will help preserve workplace flexibility. FINRA was specifically responding to reports that Barclays was waiting five days a week in the office for employees who come under FINRA regulations. And that’s your bloomberg brief. Jon. Danny, thank you. Will hear more from danny in about 30 minutes time. Just a word on the G7. Just pause for a second. Should they hold it in Italy every year given the backdrop? That would be pretty incredible. Isn’t that what everyone of the G-7 wants? Just hold it in Italy every year. Yeah, there are these whispers ahead of this G7. All the officials are like, oh, it’s an Italy leaders meeting in full year in a few weeks time. Up next on the program, the investor optimism goes worldwide. All eyes have been on Nvidia. And I actually think that there’s opportunities outside of just NVIDIA to play the theme. That conversation is coming up next. I’m from New York City this morning. Good morning. Equities on the S&P 500 an okay by 0.5% on the S&P off the back of better than expected numbers from an vedere who said that every quarter beat and rate rise. The stock is up by 6.7% in the free market under surveillance this morning. The investor optimism goes worldwide. There’s a lot of attention with the stock up as much as it is year to date. All eyes have been on Nvidia and I actually think that there’s opportunities outside of just NVIDIA to play the AI theme. And so I like looking under the surface at more or less discovered names. So here’s the latest. Nvidia producing another bullish sales forecast, helping lift U.S. futures and the global equity market in Europe. Tech stocks outperforming all other sectors. In Asia, the Bloomberg gauge of chip makers touching a three year high around a table with us here in New York and we see Bacuna at Northern Trust. And we see it’s good to see you. Stocks over bonds. That’s your call. How independent is that call from earnings releases like that one? This certainly helps, John. Thanks for having me. This wasn’t the driver of the call, though. Looking more on growth factors, the US GDP growth continues to get upgraded and global growth is broadening globally. In other words, we’re seeing that happen in other parts of the world also. That was the main driver. But I’ll take this. It’s happening in Europe. It’s happening in China to better numbers out of Europe overnight as well. It looks like the growth policy mix is going to pick up there. They’re going to be reducing interest rates as growth starts to pick up, too. Does that catch your rise throughout the continent, the Eurozone? Absolutely. We’ve added to developed ex-U.S.. We’ve added to em. It is a broadening story globally. But just to build on what John was saying is that basically already priced in because we’ve been listening to people for the past six months saying Europe is going to be a bright spot, especially with the interest rate cutting cycle. Now we get a better than expected activity data coming out of the region. Is it fully priced? Certainly not in Europe or in EAME. When we look at our valuation data, the one area of the globe where markets look slightly extended is indeed U.S. and not abroad. So I don’t believe it’s priced priced in internationally. A lot of people argued that this was going to broaden out only when we saw the rate cutting cycle actually begin. We do have some conviction from the ECB, from Christine Lagarde, that we’re going to be cutting we’re going to see rate cuts from the ECB starting in June. In the U.S., it’s a completely different picture. And you can kind of read the minutes however you want to read them. But a lot of people are reading them as relatively hawkish as possibly keeping rates high for the remainder of the year. And this is really kind of crushing small cap stocks. Do you see the broadening out hinging on the idea of U.S. rate cutting cycle is getting started on an earlier basis? Yes, And I think the minutes yesterday were certainly very interesting in that respect that policymakers are actually debating whether policy is restrictive or not. I think it helps that the messaging so far, at least from the leadership, has been that policy is restrictive and they’re not looking to hike. So clearly it’ll be quite disruptive if we saw inflation numbers continue to edge higher and the talk changes from policy is restrictive to that question we saw in the minutes yesterday. But is it really restrictive at these levels? Right. Which is something people have been debating, I guess I’m wondering, are we asking the wrong question? We keep asking what is the Fed going to cut rates? Should we be asking which government is going to stimulate or have industrial policy next? Which company is going to invest dramatically in new technology? How much other money is going to be put into the economy that’s going to have a stimulative effect that offsets any potential change in the rate cycle? Right. And that’s the debate of do we need even more restrictive policy? Fiscal is still loose and we are seeing signs of that and nothing new really, in any of the regions we’re talking about, except maybe some more stimulative policy coming out of China, which the markets were waiting for in the U.S. Of course, election year, you’re not going to see any restriction. You may see some concern. Is the policy restrictive enough to counter that, fiscal or not? But so far, so good. When you’re overweight stocks and you even like international, does that include China? It does indeed, is part of the emerging market index. So it doesn’t include China and the risks that are out there. How concerned are you about them? How high are they on the list? I think those risks and Maria are very well known. They have been well known. It’s reflective in the valuations that we see in the markets. Again, it’s not that I’m disregarding them. We are not overweight China. It’s part of the overweight of the entire complex are very concerned about geopolitics on that front. But something we are going to be willing to take at these prices. Help me understand the call on natural resources so you’re sort of more constructive on the global growth backdrop, the US, the rest of the world, particularly Europe. Where are you a natural resources now? We are slightly underweight really because we are just seeing better opportunities elsewhere in the equity markets at this point. Could you just explain whether that’s taking a bearish view on natural resources or whether that really is just a relative story? It’s a relative story, John Moore, that there are better opportunities elsewhere. At this moment, you’ve been overweight stocks, you’ve been more underweight bonds for quite a while, maybe more neutral on credit, in particular because of the extra risk capacity. We’ve seen that for a while and we’ve seen a pretty significant rally. When do you know that valuations are going to test the ability to actually gain more going forward, gain more on the stock side? Yeah, these are all valuations. We get this question often from clients that, you know, are valuations rich. And this happens not just at the overall stock market level, but for example, in video or looking at any particular segment of the stock market. And we have done some research on that. At the stock market level. When you look at these current fees and the forward one year return of the stock market, the correlations, 3% is really very little predictive power in expecting one year returns based on current valuation. It becomes extremely meaningful when you extend that horizon and look at five years or ten years, then the correlations rise to well above 50. So what I’m saying here is that it’s very hard in the short term for valuations alone to be a driver of a selloff, but other catalysts matter more. Does growth slow down? Does inflation become more worrisome? Those sort of things seem to matter more. And just putting together kind of where we began to where we are, there’s this sort of bet that stocks can be almost a safety bet right now because of how much investment there is and because of the play and because Nvidia always, as John said, is a beat in a race. And that’s essentially what we’re looking at, fueled by what some people might call revolution by a godfather in a in a leather jacket. We’ll be talking more about that coming up. How much have we left the 6040 idea behind? And the idea of bonds as a stabilizer is just off the table for the foreseeable future. It is a bit worrisome again, at the moment. I mean, we haven’t left it behind, right? I mean, for asset allocation portfolio, it is ahead still a little less than it was before. So when I’m saying we are overweight stocks, we’re still holding a fair amount of bonds. And what’s driving that worry right now is just that correlations are positive. We are looking to other things to find hedges and there are very few correlations are just driving this, and we need to see that correlation picture change. For us to say bonds are back again and we see another big morning for the market this morning. Appreciate your time as always. And waiting by going to the Northern Trust Asset Management. Let’s get to the stock of the morning stock in a week at a year, I think you get a picture and video right now is positive by 6.7%. How do you take exposure to A.I.? That’s a big question. So Joseph Moore over at Morgan Stanley says, Bottom line, Lisa, we think the backdrop warrants air exposure even amid extreme enthusiasm. And NVIDIA remains the clearest way to get that exposure. We see that basically borne out in the fact that everyone is putting the pie up by the bar up here. We’ve been saying, is the bar too high? A 92% gain going so far this year? Is that too much? Are people going to lose momentum? No way. Not a chance. Raise a beat. You’ve got basically now new dividends, You’ve got stock splits, you’ve got basically the whole works. So here’s the question, right? At what point does that end? It’s like the Oprah of the equity market. You know, you get a car, you get stock split, you get you get a dividend. Dan Ives of Wedbush, about an hour away, calls it a masterpiece quarter. Looking forward to that conversation. Coming up shortly, Bloomberg’s Michael Shepard. As the Biden administration looks to break up Live Nation, that stock is down 8.3%. That conversation up next. Equity futures on the S&P 500 are doing okay. Positive by 0.5%. The NASDAQ 100, where the outperformance is up by 0.9 and vedere in the free market up by 6.6%. It’s another it’s another race. You knew that already before the numbers even came out. You knew that in the bond market, a two year, ten year 30 is shaping up as follows. Yields back in a way. Yesterday off the back of Fed minutes. We spent some time on that. A little bit later in the program, the ten year for 4178, a two year for 8646 with down just a little bit at the front end of the yield curve. Let’s finish on Europe and talk about what’s happening over there in the eurozone PMI. So the composite just picking up a little bit once again, euro dollar one away, 46. This from Deutsche Bank. Eurozone growth is rising, inflation is easing and the door is opening to an ECB easing cycle. This is the growth policy mix, Lisa. We’ve been talking about just improving slowly as the year goes on over in Europe. And what this comes down to is the manufacturing coming back, particularly in Germany. And that was interesting to me at a time when everyone keeps talking about it being left dead in the water at the same time, no one’s saying, well, maybe the ECB won’t cut. And that, I think, is the difference between European region and the US. You see better than expected data. That is not a reason to really doubt whether the ECB can go. They seem committed to that move in June. We may finally get that first rate cut in the next month or so under surveillance. On our radar this morning, Nvidia beating expectations and rewarding investors with an increased dividend and tend to want stock split. If the company gains held this morning, it could add more than the entire market cap of Intel to its valuation. Lisa, we’re talking about massive numbers at a huge company. You know, I was reading about this last night because I often feel like I speak about it without understanding anything, which I guess maybe is, you know, normal. But I will say this discussion around a complete change in the concept of retrieving information versus generating answers, generating information, It is definitely a different way of of cloud computing of just in general technology. So if AMD and Intel is behind on that, how do they break into the 80% market share that Nvidia currently has on which is supposed to dominate everything? To me the question is not who’s going to challenge NVIDIA, it’s what is the prospect of some real risk to AMD in Intel going forward? I throw something else in there as well. Lisa Already earnings season from video started about a month or so ago when we heard from the big tech players. You have to remember the big tech names account for about 40% of the revenue that comes from this company and they’re still spending and they’re being rewarded for that spending as well. Which just tells you when we asked that big question, it is the question right now for this name of maybe the broader market. How long is that runway? Big tech players are telling you it’s pretty long. And people were worried, well, maybe this buying will stop ahead of some of the new iterations of some of these chips. And the answer from the returns yesterday from the results was absolutely not. They’re continuing to spend because the idea of getting this up and running as quickly as possible in a time where there’s more demand than there is, supply is more important than getting the absolute latest technology stock is up by 6.6%. Before those numbers came out, this happened. The British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, taking a risk this summer, calling for a snap general election on July 4th. The surprise move will put 14 years of Conservative government in the hands of voters. The opposition Labour Party has been ahead in recent polls by double digits. Look at these pictures. Who did this to this man who sent him out in the rain? So I heard that it wasn’t raining when he walked out of number ten. But the fact is it did start to rain on him. And how do you not come out with an umbrella for the sitting prime minister who’s making a very important speech saying that he’s calling for fresh elections, which is a surprise to many people, and they’re down 20 plus points in the polls. But today he had this to say and good for him for making light of the situation, he told BBC Radio, a London radio programme. I’m not a, quote, fair weather, Prime Minister. Well, you know, I got to say he can’t control the weather. The fact that he can control when the election is held was interesting to me because he had to hold it at some point before January 28th. At some point, you have to explain to me how this works and how they decide to. But he’s completely behind in the polls. So the reason why it’s sort of ironic that he’s sitting there, he’s subjecting himself to punishment. You know, it’s sort of the ultimate metaphor. Just bring it to me, because basically the polls have him absolutely trailing some of the opposition. And you have to wonder why he would do it before generating some more confidence. So the White House theory was that he would wait until growth started to improve and growth started to improve, that he would wait until we start to see rate cuts from the Bank of England. And we thought we were closer. So it was a surprise to what many and I think many within his own party as well. BREMMER Right. Which raises this question again about the rain. And yes, maybe he’s not a fair weather prime minister, but still he comes out, Give it to me. Let’s go. Let’s just get it over with it just fine. The pitch is absolutely terrible. I think the Daily Mirror, which is a tabloid newspaper in the UK, went with Drown about drowning out. I’m sure others have come up with some vicious headlines. Take the latest out of the UK. Here’s the latest Stateside, Bloomberg reporting the Justice Department and a group of states will sue Live nation for antitrust violations. The. We’ll look to break up the company and Ticketmaster’s control over concert sales. Ticketmaster’s mishandling of the Taylor Swift heiress tour in 22 sparked public outcry and hearings on Capitol Hill. Glenn Beck’s Michael Shepherd joins us now from Washington. The stock is down by more than 8%. I can’t think of a story, a company where more people will agree on this particular suit down in Washington, D.C.. How popular is this move? Well, you would find a lot of fever here in Washington and probably elsewhere in the country. Ticketmaster is a service that people have come to really despise over their troubles in accessing tickets and finding tickets at affordable prices. And this is, I guess, a nerve that has been hit not only among the public, but also among the antitrust enforcers under President Joe Biden. Remember, his administration has made competition enforcement a central part of its economic policy, and they’ve been focusing very much on the consumer experience, how people are feeling in terms of prices and also in terms of access to services to shop. This was a Bloomberg scoop, but can you just detail to us what actually the DOJ is going to be going after? What does this case actually look like? Well, you know, Anne-Marie, we’re going to have to turn the clock back a bit to 2010, when the two companies were actually joined in a merger, it brought together the nation’s largest concert promoter, Live Nation, and it brought with Ticketmaster, which was the largest seller of tickets. And at the time it went under a strict antitrust review during the administration of Barack Obama. And the companies pledged that they would not tie their services together. In other words, promoters would not tie to artists the ticket sales. If you wanted to have your concert promoted, you wouldn’t necessarily have to have Ticketmaster sell those tickets. And yet, by 2019, we saw the Trump administration challenging and questioning whether the companies were actually abiding by whatever promises they had made. They sought a new settlement and already by 2022, we saw it being challenged yet again, with ticket prices soaring for Bruce Springsteen, for Taylor Swift, and also the website going down and people just finding it hard to get price tickets at an affordable price. Shep, given all that history and the backdrop of this merger, the fact that it was allowed through obama but with some some strict policies attached to it, the trump administration looked into it also wasn’t comfortable with how Ticketmaster and Live Nation were operating. Why did the Biden administration wait so long? Do you think there’s any politics attached to this? Well, I’m not sure there’s necessarily politics. Remember, the antitrust enforcers here in Washington have been very busy over the past three years. Remember, they are seeking to block a grocery chain merger between Kroger’s and Albertson. They’re looking into the energy industry with Exxon’s attempt to purchase pioneer natural resources for $60 billion. And then you have to look at all the cases that they are pursuing on anti-competitive grounds against the big tech companies of Amazon, Google, Mazda and Apple. So they have had a lot on their plates. And this is something that they have been investigating for almost two years now. How successful have their end interest suits been, Mike? Well, you know, we’re going to have to see how this one plays out. And I think the big tech cases that are coming up will be the biggest measure of how they do. They just closed arguments in the Google anti-competitive behaviour case and we’ll be finding out how their batting average is when the judge finally rules on that. And that won’t be for a couple of months more. You know, the reason why I ask this is because we’re talking here about Ticketmaster and Live Nation. Ticketmaster controls more than 80% of the market for prime rate ticket sales, the biggest venues in the U.S. You’re looking at basically an oligarchy, if not a monopoly in the entire industry. At the same time that we’re talking about Nvidia having 80% of the artificial intelligence market, we’re talking about a lot of the big tech companies continuing to consolidate their market share with incredible loads of cash that they can put any which way. How successful are they really being? And I’m talking about the the antitrust regulators in really controlling some of this growth versus just nit picking around the corners to visually seem like they’re doing something. Well, in the previous segment, when I heard you, Lisa, talking about him video, the same thought struck my mind. But I think there may be one difference here in that and this is an argument that Apple has made in trying to defend itself that, look, we do a really good job with our products and you shouldn’t single us out for anti-competitive behaviour just because our products are such a success. And that might be a similar argument that a company like in video, which was so far ahead of the curve and really had developed technology that was naturally suited to catch the wave of artificial intelligence in building the data centers needed to power this new frontier in technology. Michael, it’s good to hear from you, as always. Thank you for being with us. Michael Schempp, author of Olympic on the latest out of Washington, DC. Apple might have a case in video, would have a case. I’m still struggling to see the case that comes from Live Nation. I’d love to hear from the company. What is their case? What’s their defense against this? They make good money. Why stop it? I mean, honestly, there’s a great question, especially because the barrier to entry is just so much lower with online sales. I mean, think about other platforms that could get involved. Not really clear how they’re going to really offer that. Following this Taylor Swift ticket debacle, you rarely see senators like Marsha Blackburn and Amy Klobuchar line up alongside each other, which they did in this hearing. KLOBUCHAR This is what she had to say during that. And this was at least more than a year back. This is all the definition of a monopoly. And then Blackburn said, this is unbelievable. So everyone in Washington is prepared for this and actually excited about it. The arc of this is interesting from Obama to Trump to Biden. And I think we’ve got to ask the question, too. Going into next year, regardless of who takes the White House, if Biden keeps if Trump comes back, how different it will be, how different the next government will be. Well, with a case like this, you can see the senators, congressmen and women lining up on both sides of the aisle saying that they want to go after some of these companies. We’ve heard that as well continuously from J.D. Vance, who says maybe Lina Khan, I know this is the DOJ, but says maybe Lina Khan is the most successful person in the industry. The arc is Obama was allowing it. If they had this provision, if they promised to make sure that concert venues could go outside of Ticketmaster. Trump came in, he said, This is very uncomfortable. There was a settlement. And then Biden said, We want a fresh probe that’s knock it down to the free market by more than 8%. Let’s give you an update on stories elsewhere this morning with your Politico brief. It’s Dani Burger. Hey, Danny. Hey, John. So I have an update on what could be the biggest mining deal in over a decade. BHP has now an extra week to convince Anglo American of its $49 billion takeover plan. Anglo agreed to enter extended talks after rejecting BHP third and final offer. Again, it did say it was final and GO had criticised the first two approaches as too cheap and so far has objected to the structure of the deal, calling it too complicated and saying it dumps too much risk on shareholders. Harvard University’s governing board has decided not to award degrees to 13 students who participated in a pro-Palestinian encampment on campus. That was despite a vote by 115 faculty to allow the students to graduate, even though they violated the university’s policies. That according to the Harvard Crimson. The students will be able to participate in commencement ceremonies but will not receive diplomas. More than 1500 Harvard College students will get their degrees today. And Warner Brothers Discovery has agreed to a five year deal with Disney’s ESPN to share college football playoff games. Earlier this year, ESPN signed a six year deal worth almost $8 billion to carry the tournament. But under this agreement, some of the games will air on TNT and Warner Brothers Max streaming service going forward. Warner Brothers has been increasing its sports exposure, signing deals for MLB, NHS and U.S. Soccer in recent years. And that’s your Bloomberg brief, Jon. Hi, Danny. Thank you. More from Danny and that brief in about 30 minutes time. I’m next on the program. The Fed faces November and you’re going to get probably an unsustainable boom in 2025. And I think the Fed’s going to have to start raising that conversation just around the corner. The prospect of hikes in 25. From New York, this is Bloomberg. Equity futures on the S&P 500 positive hair by 0.5%. A little bit of a lift in this market, as you might expect, off the back of better than expected numbers, which may be expected in video up by 6.5% in the free market under Savannah this morning with flying blind into 2025. What happens after the election is probably we get fiscal bull. But if you’re biden, you have to spend more on defense. You have to spend more on energy and you have to keep spending on the industrial policy. If you’re Trump, you’re busy pushing deregulation, tax cuts, whatever it is. Either way, you’re going to get probably an unsustainable boom in 2025. And I think the Fed’s going to have to start raising installations this morning. Treasuries falling after Fed minutes showed officials questioning whether policy is restrictive enough. Focus meeting of Berenberg write in this the Fed may prefer to wait until after the election is out of the way. If either side wins a clear victory, U.S. fiscal policy may become more expansionary once again with significant new tax cuts from Republicans or further spending increases from Democrats. Helga joins us around the table. Good morning to you. Good morning, 2025, sir. Talk to me about the prospect of rate hikes next year. Adam Posen making the case yesterday. I don’t quite believe it because we rarely get in the US election result, which is so clear cut that one of the two sides could in terms of fiscal policy, where Congress is in control, really do something dramatic. We had huge fiscal initiatives in the US right after the pandemic when everybody was kind of panicking. We knew to do something big. But now with that unusual situation over, we will likely be in Congress. It be in regard to sort of the electoral resolve, the precise details into the kind of usual gridlock where not much happens. And that means the fiscal impulse, which is currently propping up the US economy, will weaken over time, and that argues for rate cuts next year rather than rate hikes. What kind of budget deficits you expected were running deficits of something like 6 to 7% with unemployment south of 4%? What are you expecting? What your base case, that’s in a way a separate question. Even with the fiscal impact sort of petering out, the US will likely have fiscal deficits in the range of seven 6 to 7% for quite a while. But this is sort of no longer new in a way that’s not a new fiscal impact, that just continuing the strong fiscal stance which we’ve had, that’s not new money giving you new growth. Yeah, it’s just supporting the economy at the level that is. So basically the case is we need to rebalance the US policy mix over time in and that means monetary policy less restrictive than it’s now. We don’t need to do it now, but we probably will have to do it in the coming years. Our core remains, as it has been for quite a while. First cut in December. It sounds like you didn’t make much of the minutes, that it didn’t change your view and that you think that maybe people are overreacting when you say this is a hawkish stealth, it’s changing everything. Well, it is a hawkish tilt. Yes. But first of all, we were not expecting a rate cut before December either. So for us, that’s just confirmation. Okay. They’re not close to cutting. They need a lot more evidence. And B, the these are, of course, the minutes which came before the latest economic data, which all sort of consistently show a bit of weakening of economic momentum, plus that inflation for once did not surprise to the upside but to the downside. So in a way, this is kind of past news, the minutes everyone was talking about, us exceptionalism, I’m wondering how long it’s going to be until we’re talking about European sweet spot or European Goldilocks, considering the fact that we got better than expected activity data, in particular out of Germany at a time where the ECB is basically committed, all but committed to a June rate cut, how positive is that for the economy and the European re Goldilocks is personally a big word, but indeed what’s happening in Europe is the big Putin shock is over. That is the surge in energy and food prices, which drove the economy into stagnation and drove inflation up. We are now returning with much lower still somewhat illiquid but much lower energy prices. We are now returning to normal. And normal does mean growth growth of close to 1.5% by the end of this year and normal means inflation settling a bit above 2%. And as a result, the ECB no longer needs to think about inflation getting too sticky to permanent. They can afford to cut rates somewhat. When you look at the ECB, though, it’s pretty much certain they’re going to cut in June. Yes. What happens after the ECB, in my view, will be in the slow lane. That is, we do not look for back to back cuts. We expect sort of quarterly moves in the next one September, then December early next year, because inflation will now probably hover around the current level. The economy will be picking up. It will probably be only late this year when falling household prices for gas and electricity will probably bring headline inflation to or slightly below the target rate of 2%. And that’s been probably the. ECB will then do a lot more cutting. At the moment they have pre-announced the June cut, but they’ll be in the slow lane for a while thereafter. Hogan, like to circle back to something you said in the beginning about how for this huge fiscal impulse, you need a sweep of Congress, which Adam Posen also agreed with. But there’s one area that could be inflationary that you don’t need a sweep in Congress, and this is tariffs, and that would affect central banks around the world. How are you thinking about potentially a Trump administration putting a 10% tariff ring around the United States and 60% tariffs on Chinese imports? Well, tariffs are bad. Sometimes. There are good reasons for tariffs. They can be that. Can you ask that can be reasoned sort of if really there is too much of subsidies going on. Yeah, but basically tariffs are bad. Tariffs make all of us a little poorer. But the impact, however, on US inflation, this is a huge domestic economy where imports play only a modest role. The impact on US inflation, maybe the 0.10.2 percentage point range. I don’t think that would really, really make the crucial difference. It would be a bit big, bigger in smaller economies if they protect themselves in inverted commas, protect with huge tariffs, that impact on their prices would be big. So this is a huge concern, the tariffs, but less so for the inflation outlook. But when you say tariffs are bad, are they bad? If China is dumping supplies on European U.S. markets and absolutely obliterating their own industries. Well, the first economist’s response to that is if they give us a little gift. Yeah, if we can get the electric vehicles cheaper, the solar panels cheaper. Thank you for doing that. We don’t have to spend the money on it. You in China spend the money on end with subsidies. The snag is, of course, if that call this too much of a disruption. Yeah. Then of course you might want to slow down the process. Or if there are security concerns involved and probably lesser for solar panels, but with cars, electric vehicles. Who is getting what data? Yeah. Do I want China to know where 25% of the European cars are currently parked? Probably not. So there are serious security concerns which need to be addressed with China. It doesn’t have to be. Tariffs has to be, for instance, like forcing them to make absolutely clear who gets what data or that the key data relevant components actually have to be produced locally in the US or in Europe. That’s in a way, I think a better strategy than to have these blanket tariffs. Okay. You’ve got client meetings here in the U.S. How much daylight is there between the U.S. perspective and the European one on this issue? Well, I think there is among clients, among economists, not all that much disagreement. There are, of course, more political considerations. Well, you have the election campaign over here, which play a role there, to some extent political considerations In Europe. We also have this not quite as important European parliamentary election, but among, I would say, the majority of investors and economists, there is a rough consensus. Basically tariffs are bad, but there are exceptions when you really sometimes have to strike back, and especially if you want the other side to offer concessions, you have to show your weapons. But after showing your weapons, you should sit down at the table and talk rather than just we are the weapons. Well, you know the German economy better than most. What do you think the German automakers want right now? The wheels to go off European exports to China. They’d be the most unhappy with any tit for tat trade war, of course. No doubt, China, no doubt. Having said that, this is not the key concern, I would say, for Europe. And it’s also not that much the key concern for the German economy. We have to distinguish between two things. The one is the profits that companies make the who are listed on the German stock exchange. The other is what’s actually the impact on the German economy. And that probably would be much less the impact on the German economy. We have a shortage of skilled labour, for instance. Yeah, that would be much less than the potential impact on the profits of companies who do a lot of business in China and may do less business in China in the future if what hopefully won’t be the case if this escalates. Interesting. Interesting perspective. Helga, thank you. It’s good to see you as always. I was reading there of Berenberg on the latest out of Europe, the United States. And Lisa, these trajectory for policy, too, you know, it’s fascinating. I’m glad that Emory brought up tariffs. There’s one other aspect that some of these politicians did unilaterally, and that’s immigration policy and how much immigration has brought down inflation in the country. Deutsche Bank actually just put out a report saying that inflation would have been 25 to 50 basis points higher if it hadn’t been for the wave of immigration in addition to what was normal. These are some of the discussions that I think are really going to be fascinating. Absolutely. Immigration kept a lid on wages. And what the CBO came out with was they were expecting a little bit north of 1 million people coming to the United States. It was north of 3 million people coming to the United States. And that’s the supply the labor market needed to make sure that they can keep this lid on his wage spike spiral. This conversation will continue. Coming up next in the second hour of Bloomberg Surveillance. Here’s the lineup. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods. Tobin Markus of Wolfe Research, Dan Ives of Wedbush Associates here of New Back at Berman. Dan Ives of Wedbush, 730 Eastern Time. Promo with a lot. To say about what he calls a masterpiece quarter for Nvidia. Let’s have predictions on his outfit. It’s not going to be a regular suit, I guarantee that. How many colors and patterns just to sort of celebrate the joy that is, you know, in other rays of the beat. I love when he says that. He calls it the masterpiece for the loop. It’s like in a video has become the Mona Lisa of the stock market. In many ways it has. In many ways it has equity features. Right now in the S&P, positive by 0.6%, a lift in this equity market. The Nasdaq doing better as well within video in the pre-market, positive and higher by 7% in early trading. Let’s see if these gains hold. Just a sneak peek at the bond market for you following the Fed minutes from yesterday, your ten year for 4178. You’re starting to see cracks in terms of the consumer. There are more risks to the downside on the labor market. Do you see signs of consumers faltering downshifting in the consumer after the run of the consumer up is very unlikely before ending a a massive downturn. And we think the consumer is discerning right now and we expect that that trend probably continued for most of the year. When will high prices lead to consumers pulling back? It looks like we finally hit the point. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Jonathan Ferro Lisa abramowitz and Annmarie Horden turn the second down of Bloomberg Surveillance begins right now. Live from New York city. Good morning. Good morning. And vedere is higher in the free market by 6.8%. The equity markets looking to reclaim all time highs and the opening round in about 2 hours and 30 minutes time. And Dan Ives of Wedbush joins us in about 30 minutes with this to say, promo. The godfather of A.I. Tencent video delivered another masterpiece quarter. A lot of people are agreeing with him. You might have think of him as a sort of permeable when it comes to technology, but every quarter they have blown it out of the water, talking about a technological revolution that is fueling more than 600% increase in one year in net profit. I cannot get over that. Just speak to some of the cash flow that they’ve got. There was this concern going into this as well as an air pocket potentially. Would these big buyers wait on the sidelines for the newest generation of a chip? No. And what we heard yesterday from the CEO is that demand is outstripping supply. And this company, the Wall Street Journal this morning puts it they don’t have patience. It’s not there. People are desperate to get in on this. Whether or not it’s an older generation chip or waiting for the new ones, just going through things piece by piece. When these numbers came out yesterday, beat and raised once again, they said they’re poised for the next wave of growth. After this massive wave of growth. Already they boosted the quarterly cash dividend. Later, they announced a ten for one stock split. What didn’t they say that this equity market seem to want? Nothing. I mean, basically they’re talking about even maybe even gaining market share from AMD and Intel, moving into personal computers, talking about CPUs, not just the graphics processing units. To me, I think you raise this point a couple of months ago. Their main clients are the big tech giants. They account for about 40% of the profits. The Hyperscalers, the cloud computing service is still the mainstay of Nvidia’s profits. That’s been an awesome thing for them because these companies aren’t going to be affected by any kind of economic cycle in the same kind of way they have the money to spend and right now it’s just how much can you acquire not any kind of restraint. We spent a lot of time talking about Fed policy for good reason. We’ll continue to no doubt about that. But when you go through the last month or so, it’s been about the earnings from big tech, the likes of matter, what we’ve heard from Microsoft, from Alphabet, from in video in the last 24 hours, the numbers have been pretty phenomenal. And it’s independent, as you said, a Fed policy. It’s completely independent of a lot of macroeconomic factors. We’re talking about target cutting prices. We’re talking about potential pockets of weakness. We’re not seeing it in places that are undergoing what they call a technological revolution. Again, how much does that divorce the equity market from any softening in pockets that we see certainly with small cap stocks? And these are the big tech companies yesterday in a video talked about the fact that there are 15,000, 20,000 generative AI startups that are desperate to get in on these chips. Where is the next big potential tech company, Magnificent Seven coming from? Maybe one of these. The stock is up by about 7% in the pre-market. The broader scores looked like this. Let’s start with the S&P 500 futures positive and their session highs up by 0.6% in the bond market. A bit of calm for you on a ten year for 4178 and in Europe, better data. We’ll talk about that later. One at 846 on the euro against the US dollar. Coming up this hour, we’ll catch up with Sarah Hunt of Alpine Saxon Woods on why the boom is still on the in video. ROSE Toby Marcus of Wolfe Research as Nikki Haley throws her support behind Donald Trump and Ashley Baxter of Neuberger Berman on debt sustainability concerns. We begin with our top story. Sky high expectations once again, not high enough and very a soaring after delivering yet another bait. And Ray Sarah Hunter of Alpine Saxon Woods writes in this Margins look quite strong, that there will be a point at which the undersupplied market becomes less so in other industries. Companies do not get as much credit when they are over earning, but the bloom remains on the rose for Nvidia here. Sarah joins us now for more. Sarah, let’s just start with those set of numbers. Once again, the bar gets higher, they keep beating it. How impressive was that yesterday afternoon? I think it was pretty impressive. And I think that the concern was that there might be some slow down in the change. You know, it’s been the rapid change prior has been so fast that the question is if that slows down and people get worried, people are not worried. And I think the fact that they’re able to absorb those when they have something new coming also tells you that people are want to get into this game and it doesn’t matter if they have to wait for something, they’ll take what they can get right now because they don’t want to get left behind in their own development. So I think that it was a very strong report. It needed to be a strong report like all key one box needed to perform. They did. And that is driving right now. What you can see is another series of potential all time highs today. You can see it on the screen, up 7% in video abroad, come up to a ramp up by 3% in the pre market as well. So when you go through these names, there’s an I say what is and what isn’t driven by this theme in this equity market right now given utilities are up by 7 to 8% so far this month. Think a lot of the stock market is hanging on, not just the idea of I mean, in of itself, but the productivity gains that it’s going to bring and the fact that that can help with its economic growth. And I think that’s been the biggest question is what happens coming out of this pandemic and what is going to fuel the next leg of growth in the economy. And this is at least giving the market a story to tell itself whether or not that’s going to happen in the time frame that people are looking for. You know, someone was talking about how long it takes to permit electricity change. It’s enormous. There’s a long time frame that’s going to take. But you’ve got an infrastructure bill that’s going to go on here. And I think right now, as we get more use cases, that seems like something that we can continue to think about. If it turns out that it doesn’t work as well or it’s not giving that productivity, that’ll be a different story. But we’re not even close to that yet. What I find fascinating, Sarah and John was alluding to this, the idea that we talk about the phrase the Fed rate hiking cycle that left rates the highest levels in decades, and why is this economy so insensitive to that? Well, you overlay a super cycle that is completely secular, that is independent of the macro cycle with respect to invidious and all of the investments from big tech, how much cannot keep going regardless of what happens in the macroeconomic backdrop, regardless of whether there is a downturn in some of the areas where we’re already seeing softening? Well, that’s an excellent point. And that’s exactly sort of when people start talking about is the economy rate sensitive the way it used to be in this particular sector? It isn’t. In fact, higher rates for companies that are both cash generative and have a lot of cash sitting on their balance sheets is helpful to them because it’s giving them some return on their cash, where for the last decade and a half they were getting nothing. But it’s these giant cash generating juggernauts that are really fueling the spending boom, and that’s not going to be affected by higher rates. So I think that there is you know, it’s not come about the same cycle. I think the market would be struggling because the question would be what’s going to happen to the economy next? This is giving people a reason to pay. There’s a lot of ways that we can see efficiency here. Unfortunately, I think a lot of those efficiencies are going to end up being with less people working. But that’s the question as we move forward. It’s not a question right at this minute. Right now we’re building the infrastructure. And if I think about the build out for the Internet boom and how fiber and all these things that were ancillary to the the the Internet growing, you’ve got a lot of companies that were generating no cash. You had a lot of customers that needed to be financed. Right now, you’ve got customers that don’t need any financing. They’ve got plenty of cash. They’re willing to spend it. And I think that that’s really does itself a cycle that is not necessarily rate sensitive. We were talking earlier this morning with Edward Hogan about whether the 6040 is kind of dead. And I would take that a step further and ask a question about whether some of these big tech stocks are the safety plays at a time where there’s more uncertainty on the fiscal side, there’s more uncertainty and some of the monetary policy than there is in just the ability for these companies right now to make bank even with their cash piles. Well, I think that that becomes a question of valuation. And there’s been a lot of discussions about valuation, how valuation in and of itself doesn’t stop cycles. There is a point at which that there is a higher risk as a reward. And I think in some of these names you’re starting to get there just in terms of another kind of economic slowdown or some sort of pick up in terms of some of these bottlenecks that we’re talking about solving on the utility side and elsewhere. If you start to see companies having trouble getting data centers and getting room and data centers and getting them built, which I think that there’s some discussion on the edges of right now, you could see some timing delays and that could put into question the high valuations right now. But in terms of the longevity of the cycle right now, just from what you’re hearing from India and the discussions about what people need and the other companies that are trying to get into this, I think you’ve got a runway on the demand side that’s difficult to say. There’s going to be a problem if there are bottlenecks. Sara, when you talk about the potential for disrupting the labor market, John Authors recently wrote about this and talked about how Nvidia’s place isn’t exactly so healthy. This would mean taking capital expenditure from other companies. This would potentially mean taking jobs away from the American workforce. When does that story actually start to bite? Well, I think all of technology has been a continuum of finding ways in which to make productivity better, which also very often requires letting people go or having less people. But I think that, you know, Mandeep Singh had a great discussion yesterday about how annoying chat bots and all the other things that we’ve been looking at, as I have been to users and how that experience is going to get better. So some of that’s already happened. It’s just you’re going to start to see a better situation in places where you’ve already replaced people with technology. The question going forward for AI really is how much more how does that broaden out and to the extent that it does? How damaging is that to the labour economy? And I think that that’s a question we don’t really have an answer to yet. Is there a company now that you think could potentially get on the air space that is not and that we have yet to see within the tech world? I think everybody is trying to get into the into the world. And the question really is how can they use it? And this goes back to the use cases and whether or not they generate money. I mean, you start you’ve seen on the Web hosting side, you’ve seen in Microsoft and Chad GP, that there’s money to be generated here. The question is, are companies going to find it useful and are they going to continue to invest it? And right now the answer is yes down the road. Where does that end? I think every single company I mean, we’ve already been using AI for the last decade or so in different ways. This is just the large language models make it an iteration better and makes everybody try to get into it in places that they weren’t because they didn’t like the use cases that were there before. So I think that there is not anyone who isn’t going to be working into the space. The question will really be who ends up using it better? And I don’t know the answer to that. And it may very well be that some of the old economy stocks start to get much better data and use it better. We don’t know yet, but I think that’s the promise and that’s what people are expecting. Sarah, just quickly, is something Lisa mentioned a few times this week. We’ve talked about it before, how utilities are going to be them at a down market. And we’ve got an experience of that yesterday that actually helped lead the losses on the S&P 500. Given the way they’ve been bid up on this theme, are they defensive still in the equity market? I think it’s hard to make the case that their defensive and as I said, the utility especially, you’ve got a lot of issues that go into permitting, you’ve got a lot of issues that go into spending. There’s a lot of discussion about how we’re going to have to build out a better grid. And we are that’s not a question, but the timing is the question and the regulatory backdrop is going to be the question and how fast you can get things done, because there are awful lot of projects that people would like to do that get hindered with all sorts of NIMBY issues and everything else. So I think that there’s a timing issue for that and there’s an extent to which those get built up that are also on the yield side. You put those two stories together and it makes them a bit vulnerable. Got it. Good to catch up, as always. Sarah Hammer about Saxon words following those strong numbers once again from that name and video. That name right now is up by 7.3% in the pre-market. Let’s get you an update on stories elsewhere with your blimp brief. It’s Dani Burger Downing UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called for a general election on July 4th. In a statement outside of a very rainy ten Downing Street Street, he said that the country needs clear leadership. Meanwhile, Labour leader Keir Starmer kicked off his own campaign, saying his party can put an end to the recent turmoil. His shadow chancellor says the Labour Party will fight the campaign on the economy, arguing that recent high inflation and lacklustre growth are a product of a Conservative government. The Biden administration is touting its independence from the Fed. In a blog post, White House economist cited research and historical data to make the case that central banks independence bolsters their credibility with the public. The move comes amid heightened speculation over how Donald Trump could ramp up pressure on the Fed if he wins another term in the White House. New York City’s tax revenue from tourists has surpassed pre-pandemic levels to hit a new record, a jump in domestic visitors offset a drop in international and business travelers. More than 62 million people visited the city last year, generating a record $4.9 billion in sales and other tourism related tax revenue. The city is expecting the rebound to continue on to next year, projecting 68 million people will visit New York in 2025. And that’s your plan. For brief, John Danley, before you go, quick question two. Have you seen Dan Ives in the green room and what color is the jacket? Dan Ives and I are matching today. We thought since we’d both be in the green room, you know, we dress in green wearing green and hideous green this morning. So I’m Brent. I told Dan recently that if the numbers get really bad, he’s got a dress in black, and I give him a skinny tie to it. I think we’re a few quarters away from that, maybe even a few years, based on what he’s got to say, maybe even a decade. Who knows? That’s why we’re saying it’s going to be as bright as possible just to basically thwart that dare that you said, and he agreed to it. He’s never going to be seen in black button eyes about 15 minutes away. Up next on the program, a high profile vote for Donald Trump. Biden has been a catastrophe. So I will be voting for Trump. Trump would be smart to reach out to the millions of people who voted for me and continue to support me. The latest from Nikki Haley up next. From New York this morning. Good morning. Life from New York City, with equity futures positive by 0.6% on the S&P 500, there is a lift in this equity market. A left, a video as well. That name is up by something like 7% in the pre-market under Savannah is this morning a high profile vote for Donald Trump. Biden has been a catastrophe. So I will be voting for Trump. Trump would be smart to reach out to the millions of people who voted for me and continue to support me and not assume that they’re just going to be with him. And I genuinely hope he does that. So here’s the latest. Former presidential hopeful Nikki Haley throwing her support behind Donald Trump ahead of the election, flipping the script, having previously said Trump was not qualified to be president. So Ben Markus of Wolfe Research joins us around the table. Good morning to you. Good morning. If Nikki Haley is on a Trump ticket, let’s say she gets picked as the VP pick. How many of those people actually go with her? I would think that helps him in terms of the complimentary that he’s always been looking for on a ticket. But I don’t think she brings a bunch of voters with her. The people who voted for her in these primaries, especially the current primaries where she’s not even on the ticket, I think are less Haley loyalists than Trump dissenters. So I don’t think they necessarily follow her over just because of what she said yesterday. There’s a nuance to this. She says she’s voting for him. She didn’t explicitly endorse him. Is that how you read it? Yeah, And I think that’s why it remains very unlikely she’s going to end up getting the VP nod. I think Trump’s made it pretty clear up and down the administration that he wants loyalists. He wants people who are on the team. He’s not trying to sort of reassemble the team of rivals dynamic from 2017, 18, 19, when he had a bunch of people who thought their job there was to check his kind of baser impulses and, you know, whether or not she’s going to vote for him. And I take her at her word. That’s not an unconditional endorsement. But she also called him unstable and unhinged. Can this do damage to her reputation? Yeah, I among certain moderates, I can imagine it would. I mean, certainly I don’t think it reflects particularly well on her, but by the time she next is going to be seeking office in 28 or later, I doubt this is going to be the thing that really hangs over her. So if you take her off Trump’s VP list, we recently ran polling and actually Ben Carson has the highest favorability rating with Republican voters. Where’s your thinking about who Trump could actually pick? Yeah, I’ve always thought that he’s looking for someone who on the one hand brings demographic and or ideological complementarity, but on the other hand is a staunch loyalist that he has no doubt is going to kind of toe the line for him and not sort of be afraid to defend him, not be ashamed to defend him. So, you know, I think that list includes Tim Scott Stefanik I’ve always thought was pretty promising, looked like more of his art course way back when I started making that prediction, but now is firmly in the running. And he seems quite enamored of Doug Burgum, which is a little bit less complimentary, but I think does help double down on the economic message. That’s the kind of core of his appeal. It seems like Terry Haines would agree with you. He basically said that it doesn’t really mean anything for Nikki Haley to endorse Trump because it’s not clear or even just to say that she’s going to vote for him. If that’s not clear, whether she’s going to actually work for him. What does it say, though, about the sort of guys in a Republican Party at a time where everybody. I think at one point the Republican House of Representatives were going to lose a majority because so many of them were at the courthouse supporting Donald Trump. What does this say about where the gravitational forces. Yeah, you know, in general elections, in presidential elections, you see people come home. That’s the dynamic that we always see. I had various people sort of swearing to my face like, oh, huge numbers of Republicans are never going to vote for Trump again in 2021 and 22. And that never seemed right to me, because generally you get partisans coming back to their their home base. You know, I think from here on out, that dynamic stands to benefit Biden a little bit more than Trump. I mean, that’s why I sort of suspect that Biden’s current numbers are a little softer than Trump’s, even though he’s still narrowly behind in the decisive set of states. But, you know, generally, you see a lot of people sort of wringing their hands about their complaints with the nominee. But ultimately, you’ll have good reasons to be in the party they’re in. What are you expecting from the debates in late June? How important are they? Yeah, I mean, generally, debates tend not to have as much importance in actual vote trends as they are made out to. You usually see a bump, but the bump tends to be short lived. I think a decent amount of that, both after debates and conventions, tends to be sort of shifts in differential non-response bias, like the partisans of the person perceived to have one or more excited to respond to polls in the immediate aftermath of the event. But actually persuading people is fairly challenging. You know, in this case where you have, I think, a lot of people who are going to be unfavorable to both candidates and are a little bit less attached, they might otherwise be it’s probably slightly more important than usual. But I mean, I suspect that the debates are not going to reflect incredibly well on either candidate. Certainly, that’s what happened in 2020. How is Biden going to change this story? This was a Harris poll conducted exclusively for The Guardian newspaper out of the U.K. Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in recession, and the majority blamed the Biden administration. That’s right, point by point. 55% believe the economy is shrinking. 56% think the US is experiencing recession. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down. Of the 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50 year high. Where’s this coming from and how does he change it? Yeah, but I think the stock market numbers, they’re sort of the most enervating thing for the White House, just because, you know, that’s not something where you have to read the headlines. You can look at your own portfolio and see that that’s not the case. But I think that also shows what the real dynamic is here, which is that people feel bad about the economy primarily because of inflation to date. Like the price level remains dramatically higher than it was in 2019, regardless of rates. When you run focus groups, people say what they’re looking for in terms of inflation being solved is prices to come back down. But of course, no economist is sitting around waiting for the deflationary spiral to start. So I think you’re getting negativity with that origin and then people are expressing it on any economically related question that they’re asked. Anything you ask them about the economy, their view is the economy’s bad in a way that generally reflects inflation. And so anything any element of it you ask me about, I’m going to say, is bad. I don’t think that dynamic is changing. I think the economic strategy for the Biden campaign is going to be to run on a prospective contrast of vision and values and who’s fighting for whom. Trump cut taxes for the rich in 2017. You know, Biden’s fighting for the working class. Whether that will work or not remains to be seen. But I think there’s no way he’s winning a sort of contrast of records. People are going to always remember 2019 as being a time that felt better than now, kind of regardless of what the current situation is between here and Election Day. When you talk about partisan politics and people coming home, we saw that in the fundraising numbers that were just released for the first time. Trump actually brought in more for the month, not in the entire war chest, but for the month. And Biden and political this morning has a story about how Biden is struggling to shore up grassroots fundraising. Where do you see this money game playing out? Because Trump is really starting to pick up some speed. Yeah, I think it is probably was inevitable that the gap narrowed. I do think that the Biden people are not going to suffer from some great shortage of money. Presidential campaigns, I think, are less dependent on money than any other campaign in American politics because you have an infinite quantity of media. You need millions of dollars. Oh, sure, now they need money and they. But but I think they both will be sort of swimming in money to first approximation, like it’s if you’re if you’re running a congressional campaign against an incumbent and you’re trying to make people aware of who you are in the first instance, then it’s like you’re desperately in need of money. And every dollar counts. For presidential campaigns, of course, like their finance operations, are running full steam. They want every dollar they can get. But, you know, it’s a question of like your thousandth campaign ad in a given swing state like and we’re going to be blanketed in earned media about these guys. Like, I think that’s the first the main thing most people are going to see all year is whatever they’re doing through our media. How much the legal troubles hinder Trump’s not just war chest, but also his polling. Yeah, I think it remains to be seen. You know, if you take people’s the polling at face value, you know, Trump is sort of going to suffer a seven point hit if he gets convicted of something of a felony. People are notoriously bad at reporting how they are going to feel about something conditional upon a future event happening. So I’ll take the under on that number. I do think it will weigh on him if he gets convicted. You know, there’s I think, again, a lot of people who are going to be unfavorable to both candidates. I think a lot of suburban, college educated moderates, which are sort of one of the battlegrounds demographically in this election, like are not going to love the idea of a convicted felon as president, even if the set of felonies that he stands to be convicted of in this case are not quite as great as the ones being alleged in other cases. You know, conversely, if even if a jury hangs, I think that’s a benefit for Trump. Like, I think that’s not neutral. It’s closer to an acquittal than a conviction, but we’ll know soon. Good to see you in person here in New York. Thank you, sir. Tobin Marcus there of Wolfe Research. That poll was absolutely stunning just to go through some of the details. Again, 56% think the US is experiencing a recession. 49% believe the S&P 500 is down for the year. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50 year high. And you can’t discount the way people feel. You could say maybe it’s a perception issue, but we were just talking about how certain aspects of this recovery have been completely independent from the vast majority of the masses because it’s been an invidious story. It’s been a big tech story. It hasn’t been a small company story. It’s happened now that the views, the perceptions are colored by their experience with prices and it’s the price level. It’s not inflation month over month. It’s the the last five years. Coming up shortly. Dressed in green. Dan Ives of Wedbush. An invidious guidance that quote, should be hung in the loop. That stock is up by 7.5%. From New York, this is blowing back. Before I give you an update on the market. Can we just take the shot? Just quickly. Just take the shot. Just quickly. I can just sit tight and stay close. Don’t go anywhere. Good. Equity futures on the S&P. Look, a little something like this, we’re positive by 0.6% on the Nasdaq. We’re positive by one full percentage point. The lift off the back of a B and a raise from NVIDIA. We’ll get to that in a moment. In the bond market, two year, ten year, 30 year. The scores look like this and the bond market yields just about unchanged on a ten year for 4159 on a two year for 86. 46. Talked a lot about Europe and the data out of the eurozone. Let’s just sit on euro dollar just for a second. The euro is shaping up as follows 1 to 845 we’re positive by 0.2%. I’ll get to that data out of Europe in just a moment. Under surveillance this morning. Jobless claims due in just under an hour time. 220 is the median estimate in our survey. The weekly data are expected to reaffirm the resilience of the labor market as the Fed speak. Promote goes into overdrive. Yeah, and it really comes up with this conclusion that they’re tilting more hawkish as the data continues to surprise, although it isn’t continuing to surprise to the upside, which is sort of interesting, there seems to be a rethink on the Fed about what the neutral rate is about, what they have missed, what they’ve gotten wrong. So just based on the timeline, it’s looking less and less likely to see a July rate cut. Even though Andrew Hard Horse will say absolutely nothing has changed and stop thinking like, what did you think of those minutes yesterday? I mean, I’ve got my own thoughts. You’ve got yours. I’d love your first. Various officials also mentioned a willingness to raise rates if Warren said many officials expressed uncertainty over the degree to which Fed policy is restraining the economy. What were your thoughts? We’ve heard this from every single Fed official that spoke in. This is basically the rhetoric that we’ve been hearing. There is a question that Emory brought up, which is how much does Jay Powell represent the mainstream of the committee? What it highlights to me is there is an honest debate going on at the Federal Reserve. It seems like it’s going to be hard to get consensus around something before September and September is going to be a hard call considering some of the political implications. Jobless claims about 60 minutes away, I promise you. An update on the European data. The recovery gaining a little bit of momentum here. Eurozone PMIs beating estimates and hitting their highest level in a year. Meanwhile, negotiated pay increasing in the first quarter from a year ago, posing an inflation warning just two weeks before the ECB is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates. Well, they struck that offer, embrace the better data and say inflation’s doing okay. We can cut interest rates. Based on what we heard from President Lagarde, the answer is yes, based on what we heard from PIMCO and Aaron Brown just yesterday, they’re very, very interested in getting more exposure to Europe because this growth policy mix is going to improve from here on out. What incentive with the ECB have not to cut next month? Honestly, the market’s saying go for it. They basically want to support the economy. All of a sudden, the soft landing is looking more in line for them than it was before when people were talking about only the US and the US was an exceptional shot. Why wouldn’t they say, Great, we’re going to cut rates, we’re going to watch that, see how that goes. But I think we’re good. They have the confidence of the ECB. The Fed just doesn’t have at the moment seemingly. Let’s talk about the number one story. Shares of Nvidia soaring after the company reported yet another beat and raise. Dan ISE of Wedbush writes in this The godfather of A.I. delivered another masterpiece quarter and guidance that should be hung in the Louvre. Dan joins us now for more than Good morning to you, sir. Great masterpiece Court set. The bar was really high. They still beat it. What was impressive for you yesterday that this should hang in the loop? Because if you look at the guidance in terms what we see on the data center side, it was even, I think, a billion beyond whisper numbers. And if you look at the demand, this is the most important thing. Demand is accelerating. It’s not even slowing down. So when we start to look in trajectory out, not just for Nvidia, but second, third, fourth derivative look, I don’t know if there’s popcorn machine, I think it’s time get the popcorn out because this AI revolution in 1995 movement it’s just start build on that and compare it to previous semi cycles. Chipmakers go through cycles. Sometimes you hit an air pocket, usually runways don’t go on forever. What’s different about this one? It’s really unlike anything we’ve ever seen in semis. And I think even, you know, from a component perspective, you’re seeing this across Asia and we’ve seen it. They’ve never seen any demand like this. But there’s only right now it’s in videos world, everyone else paying rent. Now you will have AMD and others in the street would try to jet red. Who could others who are chip makers that are going to benefit. But this is significant for the likes of Dell and Microsoft Google Medha. Then you look in names like ServiceNow, Oracle, Dell, so you’re going to now start to see this tidal wave of spend. It shows it’s going to be hitting the shores of tech. So that’s why if you’re a bear right now, they’re going deep back into those caves, into hibernation mode with their valuations spread, because I think it’s not being captured in terms of what we’re seeing from a demand perspective. You should be scared when bears go into hibernation. The check, the gut check on markets, I think are sometimes important to have. Maybe it’s not about video, but because they’ve shown they are the only game in town. They own about 80% of the market is potentially some of the threat to the AMD’s and the Intels of the world. You said it’s in Nvidia’s world. They have such a lead time in terms of the chips that people want and they’re now going into personal computers. Yeah, I think Lisa Su and AMD, that’s someone that you’re going to bet on. And I think in terms of what they’re doing, that Intel disaster, epic proportions and you see in the stock, I mean they are right now they’re going 35 miles in the right lane and Nvidia and Jensen are in the Ferrari in the left lane going 100 miles an hour or so. But what this really does mean is it’s the appetite, I think, is if you look at the demand from an enterprise perspective and this is all the drum roll to June 10th where Apple is going to release their a strategy for consumers. And that’s why this is the 1995 moment, not a 1999 moment. I was looking at the profit margins of Nvidia, something like 76%, which is sort of shocking and the envy of certainly grocers and things that are looking at, you know, one 2% margin. At what point do you see the Googles of the world, the Microsoft of the world, push back and start to challenge pricing, start to create their own chips, start to say, really, we’re paying a lot? Yeah, look, the godfather of agents and right now is really dictating now I think in the in a few years you will see others amd you’re going to see Apple, Microsoft, they’re going to look to build their own chips. But for the next 2 to 3 years, I mean that is really some that is not feasible. They’re going to have to continue to buy these chips. And that’s why in Egypt chips right now, it’s the new gold, the new oil when it comes to tech, intel, market cap, 134 billion USD. The stat doing around this morning we’re up in the pre market for Nvidia more than the market cap of intel. What is everyone else getting wrong right now particularly that company I think what have they gotten right I mean it’s really it’s a nightmare that just continues really a horror show relative to what they could have gone after. They’ve almost been out if you look at Apple’s beat them at their own game. Well, tell me where they go wrong and why is it so difficult to turn around? I think if you look from an innovation perspective, when you look how Jensen and Nvidia been, Intel, I think thought that was going to be a fad. And ultimately that was something that that was a that was a miscalculation that they’ll be paying for really for decades. And when we get to about us and some of the things that they’re doing from an innovation building here, what up? How do you think the winners now are going to potentially be the winners for decades? Because you remember the Internet experience. It wasn’t quite that way. There were some big winners at the time that ultimately ended up being big losers. You think it’s sort of now down? These are the winners now for the next decade? Look, I think it starts to go with a there’s not too many typewriter companies that are still around. And when you look at Intel, they made some huge miscalculated. They’re going to have to do M&A and they’re going to have to specifically accelerate this because in Vedere and Jensen, that’s the new age. I mean, they are they’re where Apple was when they launched the iPhone. And when you look at Jensen, that’s not someone you want to bet against, which speaks to, I think, when you even broaden this out, what it means for the rest of tech, for software, because now the batons being hand the software that’s why you see McDermott service. Now look at Oracle. We’ll get Dell. If someone told you six months ago that Dell was an AI play, they say, no, I don’t really understand that perspective, but it just shows where we are in, I believe, in the early stages of this new tech bull market playing out. Intel is doing a lot when it comes to investing. They just got $20 billion from the Chips and Science Act out of Washington. Besides M&A, what more do you think Intel should be doing? I think they got to focus on trying to beat invidious AMD in some components. They have the install base, they got the cash, but it’s going to be about innovation. And I think the problem with Intel is that it’s been nightmare of tonight and their black eye after black eye in terms of going from an innovation perspective and well, Gelsinger I think has the right strategy but that in 3 hours get your cup of coffee if you don’t execute right. So when it comes to Nvidia, back to Nvidia Intel AMD, we had a recent report. I have to ask you about this because you’re so bullish. We had a recent report about what this would mean if China were to invade Taiwan and how these companies could basically flip a switch because all of their chips mostly are being made in Taiwan. You wake up this morning and you see some pretty aggressive military moves around the Taiwan country in the in the street because of the recent elections. When these kind of risks, how much do they weigh on you? Look, I think it’s right now contain risks. And so that’s been to Taiwan a number of times. Now that you said what could spoil the party? It’s not the Fed. That’s not the measure. China continues to be the biggest risk here and from a geopolitical perspective. And that’s why I think right now, like you said, the probably the biggest concern is geopolitically what’s going to happen there. But if you look at that balancing act between us and China in this cold tech war, they’re right now able to balance it where you also have huge age story that’s happening in China. And at the end of the day, no one’s here. US needs China. China needs us because building ships here in the US, replacing the aging supply chain, spare a chance me playing for the Rangers this week, which is exactly where I was going to go. You don’t seem to have a lot of confidence in Pat Gelsinger and his ability to actually recreate some sort of foundry in the United States. Is that what you’re saying, that you think a lot of the money that’s gone into this and the federal subsidies won’t necessarily create the behemoth and the high tech chip supply that a lot of people are talking about? It could then it will and you could start to move some to the US and you’re starting to see that. But the reality is for the next three, five, ten years, that supply chain is going to be in Asia. And as I say, we’ll give you a 2500 our iPhones. We should make them in New Jersey, a few thousand our iPhones. Then they continue to be made in Foxconn. And I think that’s the issue here in terms of this balancing act, despite what we hear from the two or two area code. So based on all of this, how long before and video is a $3 trillion company? Look, I think we are going to get there a lot sooner than everyone expects. And I think when we talk about 3 trillion for Nvidia, that’s something that will be on the horizon. And now we’re going to start to be looking at we’re going to be talking about 4,000,000,000,005 trillion when we look out over the next two, three, four years in terms where we see tech going. And I think that’s what’s starting to play out right now. This is an AI gold rush and it’s being led by the Godfather Rangers princess who gets it done. I think tough loss for us. I do think Rangers get it in Game six. What happens? The Knicks will get tough. I think just ultimately they get too tired. Injuries, many games. Right. But I do believe. Knicks next year. Just like, you know, I think. I think what we’re going to see this year, I think Rangers could potentially be a Stanley Cup, a renaissance of New York sports. It’s what we all want. It’s 1994. It’s 1995. And tech. 1994 in New York. But Patrick Ewing is back. Yeah, it’s it’s like Formula One, just like everything we’re seeing. Love it. Dennis, Thank you. Said 10 hours of work for you. Appreciate it. Thank you. Let’s get you an update on stories elsewhere this morning. Hey, are you playing poker with Dani Burger? Hey, Danny. Hey, John. China held its biggest military drills in a year around Taiwan. Mentioned this. The exercises coming just days after Taiwan’s new president took office. Chinese state media saying that the drills are meant to, quote, serve as a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence. Taiwan deployed sea, air and ground forces in response and condemned China’s actions, saying they undermine regional stability. Jp morgan is looking to buy a private credit firm to add to its $3.6 trillion asset management arm. That according to people familiar with the matter. Earlier this year, the bank held talks to buy Monroe Capital, but a deal was never reached. J.P. Morgan has already earmarked 0 billion for direct lending as a private credit industry has exploded in recent years. At Atlanta, SNAP Bayer Leverkusen’s, 51, game unbeaten run to win football Europa League. Fresh off winning their first ever German league title. Leverkusen were favourites for the match with the Italian side spoiled their perfect season, winning three nil to claim their first major European trophy. And that’s your Bloomberg brief. John, it’s Annie. Thank you. Shouts out Steve Pagliuca, owner of the Boston Celtics, also owner of Atalanta, for an amazing win for that company for that club. Just absolutely phenomenal. I spoke to Steve this morning. He’s going to try and join us next week. Hasn’t slept all night. It’s on his way back for the South six game. I can just that amazing. What a life he has such a good life. And he goes to a lot of the games. He’s not one of those owners that just sort of like checks in. I wonder if the guy over oak trees that was on the pitch last night celebrates it then if you saw him on the TV celebrating, holding the trophy right in the middle, very, very cold. More on that, I hope, next week. Up next on the program, Fed officials holding the line. I think the Fed is going to hold the line on that, make sure that we’re coming back to 2% on a sustained sort of basis. The things can you know, things can downshift here pretty quickly as we go forward. That conversation. Up next. Equities near session highs positive here by close to 0.7% on the S&P 500 yields just about unchanged for 4159. I feel like I know you every single segment an update on and video and here it is, paramo up by 7%, which as you pointed out, is about 70 billion of market capitalization. And there’s $2.3 trillion stock, which raises this question of, yes, it is bigger than Intel, but how far can it go with Dan Ives talking about 4 trillion, 5 trillion? I don’t know. At some point it ends. Everything does, but not after that quarter, none after that. And disappointments this morning, Fed officials holding the line. I think you will see continued slowing as we go forward. Now, certainly not looking for a rate cut anytime soon. I think the Fed is going to hold the line on that, make sure that we’re coming back to 2% on a sustained sort of basis. The things can you know, things can downshift here pretty quickly as we go forward. So here’s the latest. The yield curve shifting to its flattest in more than a month following hawkish Fed minutes, Ashok Baxter of Neuberger Berman writes in this We continue to favor the short and intermediate parts of the yield curve in anticipation of declining cash rates, but remain cautious on longer dated bonds on debt sustainability concerns. Ashok joins us now for more. So good to catch up with you. So it has been way too long. Let’s split up the curve and go from the short end to the longer and start the longer end of the curve. What are these debt sustainability concerns? Are they in corporate today? In sovereigns? They’re in sovereigns. And good to catch up, too, with you all. It’s really, you know, corporate balance sheets, even household balance sheets are largely in good shape here. Debt levels in the corporate sector are not at historic lows, but they’re certainly in sort of the lower or lower percentiles for where they’ve been historically. But the flip side has been the build up of government debt. And it’s not just the US, it’s European countries as well. Obviously, the Japanese fiscal situation is well known, and particularly for the US, there’s a period where this government debt is no longer going to be bought by the Fed. It’s no longer going to be bought by the Chinese to the same level. And foreign investors like the Japanese are really struggling with with hedge costs. And so we look at the world over the next couple of years and the clearing price for some of this long term debt we think is likely to creep higher as we have to attract more private sectors and domestic investors back into the government bond markets. So I’ve always tried to keep it really simple and I’ve always said the test between a DM and an EM sovereign issuer is ultimately how they perform in an economic downturn and in economic downturns. You know what happens with treasuries, the bid, the rally yields drop. How do you think they’ll perform in the next downturn given the concerns you have? Well, I think you’ll see performance from short and intermediate rates. So, you know, let’s just imagine we get a big slowdown, a recession, the Fed’s rates five and 3/8 right now. They’ll probably take it down at least 200 basis points in that type of environment. So you can get that performance from short and intermediate rates. But in a world where policy rates may be subtle around 3%, three and a half percent, you know, a ten year note where it currently is at four and a half or so. That’s not terribly unreasonable. So I think this this next downturn and this is sort of kind of ties into why we’re emphasizing these short and intermediate maturities is that’s where you’ll get the the hedge benefits, the correlation benefits in the performance in a significant downturn. And I think it is just a lot more uncertain how long term rates will perform in that type of type of world going forward. What do you think the clearing price will be if we continue to run 6 to 7% budget deficits to GDP in America? What kind of extra yield are you talking about to compensate investors? I think, you know, it is going to depend a lot upon what the Fed ends up doing. And do we run these deficits in a world where growth is strong or growth is weak? You know, if let’s say we get this slow down and automatic stabilisers kick in and we’re in a big slowdown, that clearing price can be maybe for long term rates at these levels are a little lower. But if we are going into a world where growth is going to be, you know, stick around these levels, at the same time, fiscal policy remains pretty loose. You know, that clearing level, you know, could be, you know, 5%, maybe a little bit above that. And I think that really just speaks to, you know, one of the big debates that’s coming in the bond market started last year. It’s going to be with us for a while. Is is where is the right clearing level for long term rates? And there’s just a lot of things that go into it. The last 15 years we’ve been in a world knowing where the clearing rate was going to be because the Fed would buy these bonds and we had plenty of foreign demand and zero and negative yields. And this is all in a lot of flux right now. At the same time, a lot of people have pushed back on this argument and basically said we don’t see that typically when there is some sort of economic downturn that people do go into longer dated treasuries. And what’s the alternative? Not necessarily in US markets, but internationally. Why wouldn’t international buyers come back to Treasuries ultimately? Because even though the deficit’s not great in the US, it’s not looking so much better in a lot of the other developed markets. Now, that’s a fair point. I think the the answer to that is it’s a lot tied to to to hedge costs, particularly for the US. I mean, the US, we obviously run a current account deficit. So we need we need foreign buyers. And one of the challenges is if you just take the Japanese and the Japanese have a steep yield curve, we have a flat yield curve and our policy rates are a lot higher. So don’t dispute at all if we get a big significant slowdown, recession, could you see a little bit of performance from long term bonds? You know, maybe a little bit. But I think, you know, it’s going to be hard for foreign investors to really embrace our markets right now with how their yield curves look look to ours. And, you know, the big change, I think on on this point of how it will look going forward is, you know, we’re probably going to be in a positive, you know, real yield environment given the end of QE for a while. And that that limits the the amount of downside you can get in yields compared to a lot of the the last 15 years. We think I love it you’re a bond guy and you like stocks and that’s you’re basically an investment pick right now. That’s basically the argument that you’re making because we’re all watching the video. A lot of people I guess, if that’s really the way to go, these are some of the comments that you’re making that I thought was were fascinating, that 90% of the inflation fight is already done and who cares about 3 to 4% inflation? It’s going to be just fine. And stocks tend to do better in that kind of environment. To me, this is really the key. You think that the Fed is not actually sensitive to inflation. You think that they are employment sensitive and that they’re going to respond to that and allow inflation to remain at these levels, which will be a supportive of stocks? Am I characterizing that right? You know, I think the general point that, you know, will the Fed, you know, throw the economy into a significant slowdown or recession to get the last mile of inflation out of the system, You know, probably quite unlikely. And I you know, I think that we’ve got to we have to remember. Right. The Fed has a dual mandate, employment and inflation. For the last two years or so. It’s been they could just, you know, focus on the the inflation mandate and employment would was was going to be be fine. It’s still you know the labor market is in really good shape. We’ll see how that develops. But we think we’re on a track to you know, mid three core inflation by year end, maybe a little bit lower. And we think we’re on a track to mid to inflation by, you know, 18 months from now maybe maybe a little shorter. So the Fed is on the right path. And, you know, will they try to squeeze two and a half down to two? Probably that debate will come. But but our guesses is not and, you know, it is an environment where, you know, if the Fed and other central banks are able to stick a soft landing, you know, like we like we’ve communicated a run that doesn’t have to be a terrible and can be a good environment for for for equities and other asset classes to show. I’m going to think out loud for the next 40 seconds, which is sometimes dangerous. So forgive me. I want to go back over what we’ve been talking about. So quite clearly, we’ve transferred risk away from household balance sheets to sovereign balance sheets, which the point you’re making. Corporations have turned out that debt as well. You’re saying that debt sustainability concerns of a sovereign that the key issue here, not on the corporate balance sheet and that yields could be higher than they otherwise would be, Where would that leave spreads? Can you just help me understand how different things might be this fly right now regarding spreads in an economic downturn? The current state of state of things as well. How things sort of shape up there. Yeah, well, spreads. If we look at just sort of index levels, you know, it spreads at the index lower around 80 basis points. High yield is around 300 in the US. Really In the post financial crisis world, the lowest high yield spreads have gotten to be a little bit below to 75. So not quite at the lows, but we’re at pretty we’re not within we’re within pretty close distance. And I think the world where there’s more government debt and decent corporate fundamentals, big, big picture, a level that should result in tighter equilibrium spreads than, you know, we’ve we’ve maybe been used to. I think the defaults defaults we think will remain low. Our our main message on the credit markets, there’s really two. One is that, you know, expect spreads to remain, you know, sort of tighter end of ranges. Fundamentals will support that. But one of the big changes has been with the rise in yields markets that we haven’t really been able to participate in securitized markets. Mortgages suddenly offer attractive yields and there’s just a lot more to do. I could talk to you all day. It’s going to catch up. I start plenty of new back up. And thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Coming up next, Sebastian Paige of T Rowe Price. What we think we’re going to see is softer inflation and softer activity in labour markets. Potential early as you would see a rate cut in depends on what’s happening with the data between now and then would be in September. You’re going to probably see about half of those cuts than what the Fed is currently anticipating. The risk right now is, is that they either hold out and cut too much too quickly and kind of overstimulate things and then have to kind of reverse course. You’re going to get probably an unsustainable boom in 2025. And I think the Fed’s going to have to start rate base is Bloomberg Surveillance with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horden burn. And it’s been at least 5 minutes since we’ve quoted in video. So let’s do that right now. The price is up by 7% in the pre market. We’re talking about 130, 40 billion of market cap added to a $2 trillion name, which is just absolutely outstanding. We’ll get the breakdown again of the numbers, a review, some analysis for you through the next 60 minutes or so. But a stands quote for me later and I’ve read this a few times, came from Joseph Moore over at Morgan Stanley. Bottom line, we think the backdrop warrants air exposure, even amid extreme enthusiasm in video remains the clearest way to get that exposure. If you want to write this wave, how often do you do it apart from this name right here, a lot of people have tried to be cute about it. They’ve got into utilities, they’ve gone into other sectors that could benefit. And I think that what this shows is when people are worried about valuation in video, it just shows them you just have not priced in how much we can actually capitalize on this. And I think that the biggest takeaway on a larger scale is how much does valuation matter at a complete sea change in a certain technology? Goldman Sachs this morning upping their price target, 1100 to 1200 when it comes to this name, given the blowout report, I love it. And I’ve said there it’s Nvidia’s world. Everyone is paying rent. The godfather of AI in his Ferrari, and he sees the trajectory going to four even $5 trillion for this company. Dressed in green came in the studio with four shades on. I’ve never seen him so cool, so relaxed. I know some people might be watching, thinking that’s the top that they’re right now. Green jacket glasses. I could have said that last year, in the year before. Again, repeatedly on some of these stories. Well, check out his outfits, essentially. I mean, they’ve always been pretty bright. So if you want to take a you know, this is the top you could have done it from last year or the year before. You’re right. People are still underpricing even after shifting the bar so much higher. Again, this just comes this question of how divorced is this in the rest of the economy versus the trickle down that people have been expecting in terms of productivity gains. That I think is the bigger question. It’s really indeterminate. What did he say? Told the best to get their valuation spreadsheets and go back to their caves. They’re pretty deep back in their caves, back in your seriously punchy stuff. Equities right now, the S&P 500, the scores look like this with positive by 0.7% in the bond market shaping up as follows Yields not lower by even a basis point with just about unchanged for 4198. And in foreign exchange, the euro went away at 52, we’re positive by a third of 1%, a stronger euro, some better data. As Lisa mentioned earlier, manufacturing picking up just a little bit again for the eurozone. Coming up this hour, we’ll catch up with Sebastian Paige of T Rowe Price and what he calls his boring market outlook. Mandeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence, as in video delivers on air hopes, and Dana Peterson of the Conference Board and why she sees two rate cuts to when the year we became with the big issue in video something earnings pulling stocks even higher. Sebastien Paige, a t rowe price saying this the bulls have done well because they are focused on earnings. Companies are flush with cash and spending on A.I.. This is not the tech bubble. Large cap tech is printing cash. Sebastian Page is with us around the table. So it’s good to see you. It always is. Good morning, guys. Likewise, Enthusiastically neutral. Boring is good. Was anything about last night? Boring? Not at all. And my colleague Dom Rizzo runs a tech fund and he likes grand statements. And you had a lot of grand statements last night. Should he said that is going to be the greatest productivity boom for humanity since electricity. So I’m not sure how onboard I am with that level of grander in the statement. But this is real. And if you think about it, we just talked about valuation and Nvidia. The price earnings ratio is down. Right, because just earnings have just gone up so fast as an asset allocator. I don’t think I’ve ever been so interested in stocks. 2.3 trillion market cap. It’s incredible. The market cap of the Russell two Jan is 3 trillion and you just are down I’ve said in videos going to 3 trillion Microsoft is over 3 trillion. So those markets are very concentrated. So we like growth stocks. We actually have a tilt a small overweight right now towards value stocks. Why? Look, the valuation case is compelling. Now, I’m not ready to take my spreadsheet and go back in my cage, my cave, the bears. I’m just going to say that you’re in the bottom quartile of valuation for value stocks relative to growth. Now, that’s been a trap historically because it’s gotten cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. But if you look at that bottom quartile, the outperformance of value over growth over the next 12 months historically is about 5%. Okay. So there’s a valuation case. Then you ask what are the catalysts? I do think geopolitical risks adds some risk of an oil spike. You have stickier inflation, stickier interest rates. So you potentially have macro catalysts. And one more. Going back to I we think over time, I guess that I’ve called it the tidal wave of spending. This is going to come to stodgy or older style companies as well in terms of productivity gains. And that doesn’t look priced in at all. But John alluded to this, that basically the best way to play AI right now, it seemed like, was through video, through the Giant, the godfather of AI, not through all these ancillary bets of sort of the trickle down into the older economy and utilities and everything else. Why not just be overweight? The basic play on artificial intelligence, if you believe it’s going to be the biggest thing since sliced bread. But that’s definitely what has worked over the last 12 months. I do think that the effect of AI on values and this not a pound the table, I think you should own growth stocks look for opportunities to add to value stocks. But if you look at earnings and the broadening of earnings that let alone the broadening of market returns, just earnings by the end of this year, year over year for the fourth quarter, the expectation is that value stocks will outgrow in terms of earnings growth stocks. Now, granted, this is because the comparables are really, really easy for value stocks, but you do have a passing of the baton. I just you know, we like to be contrarian. It’s not always comfortable. You look back and you say, okay, being long and has worked and again, we like growth stocks. But but I think what’s not priced in right now is that tidal wave that Dan, I’ve talked about. Meanwhile, you say you like to be boring. You say that you like to be aggressively and happily, very enthusiastically neutral. But you said as an asset allocator, you have never been more interested in stocks, So why not overweight stocks at a time where you see sticky inflation and you do see such a rosy backdrop? Look, you have an economic slowdown. I don’t think it’s a recession, but a slowdown. And you do have, you know, some long and viable lags. And this is very controversial because the effects have been sort of a rolling recession. But you do have a fair amount of tightening in the economy that hasn’t come through because everyone’s refinanced on long term debt. So that is coming through. So the bears on my asset allocation committee are looking at that, looking at the slowing economy and yes, ultimately looking at top level valuation, 21 on the S&P 500 versus 16 historically. And kind of just being cautious, we’ve just had a huge rally and we kind of just and I get my point with being boring and we stopped by this last time I was on the show is strategic asset allocation, which we don’t talk about much place to you. You have a strategic asset allocation as an investor, why not stick to it? You think about your risk tolerance, how much stocks you should own sort of in general over time. That’s what I’m saying. I’m not saying get out of stocks, but I’m saying stick to your what kind of risk tolerance you have in your asset mix. Look at we look a lot at life cycle models. Jonathan, is how far are you from retirement and how much stocks should you own? The whole 6040 debate, people kind of lose the idea that if you’re like 15, 20 years from retirement, which I am, it’s not 6040 according to lifecycle models, it’s 80% stocks. So I’m saying is don’t be a hero. Don’t just pedal to the metal on risk, Don’t panic and get out of stocks. Think about your strategic gas allocation. It’s boring. But I think that’s a kind of market environment where you have to do that. Can we talk about this current market environment with regards to bonds? We just spoke to a guest, Ashok Bashir of Neuberger Berman, who made the point that he didn’t like longer dated. Sovereign debt here because he was worried about fiscal sustainability concerns and the potential in the next economic downturn. Those bonds wouldn’t be paid in quite the same way that maybe even yields would have to stay at elevated levels. What were your thoughts when you heard that? Yeah, I saw that he was talking about 5%. And look, if you ask me what’s the scariest chart in all of capital markets right now, it’s government debt service cost. It looks vertical and that is worrisome. What does that lead to? When, Lisa, you made the point earlier, like there is as Tina is back, there is no alternative to U.S. treasuries in a big market downturn in a crash. And that’s still there. But I’m I’m sympathetic to that idea. If I look out 12 months, we’re still short duration. We have cash and an overweight cash and at the same time an overweight credit because we don’t expect a recession, but we’re net short duration. So I’m very sympathetic to that idea. It’s really hard to actually know how this will play out because, look, you can have cut spending cuts doesn’t end election year. Are we really going to get that? Anne-Marie, you can have you can have higher inflation. That’s another way to kind of get rid of that debt problem. And I think that’s quite possible. You can have higher taxes. Yeah. So, you know, so I think that debt service payments are due to continue to rise hard to start to think about how this is going to get resolved. Or we can have a just bond vigilantes like you had in the U.K., where the bond market just said, that’s it, we’re not going to buy this auction. I know you like auctions, you catering to everyone to this point. Sebastiano you say when you’re looking at the market, be boring. This is anything but a boring year when it comes to the politics. How are you thinking about the election when you look at your market market and your asset allocation? Yeah, and this is coming into focus right now. And look, it’s a really close one. Again, it’s kind of a 5050 country. And I do think that you do have differences in terms of tariffs. I do think that with a Republican win you would have higher tariffs dependent for you. Depends if you get a split Congress or not. But overall. Emery. Fiscal pedal to the metal. I think that’s that’s what we’re looking at for now. Do you agree with Adam Posen that whoever wins, there’s going to be a fiscal boom, there’s going to be some sort of inflationary boom one way or another. This can be enacted just simply with whether it’s tariffs or a different immigration policy that would increase the chance of a Fed rate hike next year. Do you agree with that? Yeah, and I agree. If you say that the consensus is that the chances are is zero. Right. So increase the chances from what to what it does on the margin from maybe what the market is seeing right now as close to 0 to 5, 10% chance of a hike. Yeah, absolutely. Combine that with a commodity shock, you know, which is always kind of doesn’t matter until it really does and it happens really fast. Now, you have an inflation problem you might be running. We’re running at four and a half percent. Q one you might be running five, five and a half. I’m not saying nine. But combine that with the commodity shock and yeah, we’ll we’ll be glad we’re short duration. When did that come from commodity shock? Is that something you’re concerned about, something you’re focused on? Yes. In the sense that if you look at the Strait of Hormuz, where, you know, everyone thinks, okay, it’s okay, this is a 40% of oil flow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So that kind of disruption and I’m not a geopolitical expert, I talk to some and it’s it’s hard to, again, predict how that would happen. But there have been tensions around the Strait of Hormuz in the past. And if you block oil flow right there, boom, you’re off low probability. But it’s always possible. Are you positioning for that low probability? And if so, how? So we’re along real asset equities. So this is back to the inflation team. This includes energy companies. It includes also real estate, which is a much longer term inflation. Hedge doesn’t behave the same as energy stocks. It’s a diversified portfolio as well as metals and mining. So talk about copper rallying on I so metals and mining as well. Diversified portfolio we’re long that asset class. Interesting. Always love catching up with you. Thank you. Likewise thank talking tactical asset allocation which we often don’t do here. Thank you. I was stunned when he said that. And I’m never gonna let that guy set a date. Yeah. When was that? A month ago. And we’ve talked extensively about it every day. So really talk about tactical asset allocation. Just thinking about my retirement years. Yeah. How many years? Wow. What should Emery be? And I think Emery should be 90%. 69% stocks. Yes. Okay. We’re sort that out to best in page T Rowe Price. Thank you, sir. Let’s give an update on stories elsewhere this morning. Casey Olympic brief with Dani Burger. Hey, Danny. Hey, John. Jeremy has raised its sales target for its marquee model and that it hopes can one day compete with Tesla. The Chinese smartphone maker is accelerating its push into EVs and at the same time reported its fastest pace of revenue growth in more than two years. Sharma now expects to deliver 120,000 of its SU seven model, having received close to 90,000 orders as of April. Nikki Haley says she plans to vote for Donald Trump but stopped short of an outright endorsement. Haley, who challenged the former president for the Republican nomination, is the latest Trump critic to back his White House bid. She was speaking publicly for the first time since dropping out of the presidential primary, saying, quote, Biden has been a catastrophe. So I will be voting for Trump. And Taylor Swift is giving Europe’s economy a boost, a story that continues to play out according to new data from Bank of America. So this Paris conference helped to lift consumer spending in the city by 22%. The bank added that other European cities can look forward to a similar boost. Upcoming tour stops include Madrid, London and Milan. And that’s your Bloomberg brief. John Carney Thank you. More from Downey in about 30 minutes time. Up next on the program, the morning calls. Plus Mandeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence recapping numbers from Nvidia. That’s next. This is pulling back. One hour, 12 minutes away from the opening bell and looking to reclaim all time highs on the S&P 500, with equity futures positive by 0.7% and vedere up by close to seven percentage points in the pre-market. Let’s get to morning clothes. There is only one stock in focus. Let’s talk about it. Morgan stanley raising its price target on the air giant to 1160. The analyst calling it 50 of the, quote, clearest way to get high exposure. Next up, coward bumping up its price target to 1200. The analysts noting another quarter of excellent growth at the dawn of a new industrial revolution. And finally, Citi raising its price target to 1260. The analyst calling the chipmaker’s 10 to 1 stock split a positive surprise. Nvidia shares are up over 200% from a year ago. Mandeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence is with us around the table. Mandeep, your thoughts, please. What did you make of that? I mean, look, this is a business that wasn’t existent back in 2015. So for a company to have 00 billion revenue run rate business in a span of 7 to 8 years, it tells you a lot about, you know, how well they have executed. And it is a virtual monopoly at this point of time. I mean, even though we talk about AMD and other competitors, they’re nowhere close to, you know, how quickly this company is shipping product and how they’re able to raise prices. I think what really stands out here is the ASP increases that they continue to show from Ampere to, you know, Hopper and now BlackRock, they’re adding more kind of capabilities, networking and other kind of things and they are charging more to the customer and they are happily paying it. So that’s the most impressive part about what they’re doing. They’re adding an intel plus this morning to the market cap, which is absolutely phenomenal for a company, as you say, that did not exist as recently as when 2015. That’s ridiculous. This is what Morgan Stanley said. We’ve come back to this quite a few times. This name is the clearest way to get air exposure. Is there nothing KAOS is they said I mean, this is table stakes. And that’s why, you know, when they called out last night that Tesla is a big buyer along with the Hyperscalers and the sovereigns, the Jensen name, countries like France, Italy, all buying Nvidia chips to build their own GPT equivalent large language model. It tells you something that, you know, there is an arms race and this is the only game in town in terms of giving you that functionality. But when it comes to valuation, that’s where you have to ask yourself what is the normalized level of earnings for this company? I mean, clearly, you know, they are blowing through their numbers. Triple digit growth is phenomenal. But stocks look at perpetually and in the long run are the overall earnings now, because we have seen instances of, you know, companies during the pandemic, they grew three triple digits, Zoom and a lot of other e-commerce names and then what happened afterwards. So there’s always a normalization and that’s what you got a fear of as an investor. Will the competitors catch up? Probably not. But the large, large numbers will come into play. And at that scale, it’s very hard to keep growing, you know, 25, 30%. And this raises also the issue of how long they keep having a 76% profit margin on their sales. At what point to the Microsofts in the metros push back and say, really, guys, you’re going to raise us some more? Which really raises the question, so far this has been a feature, not a bug, that the big four that really comprised their the bulk of their business account for about 40% of their sales. When does that become a headwind, given the fact that they’re trying to develop their own chipmakers, They’re trying to diversify. Maybe eventually push back. Yeah, and that’s where I think they called out China last night. So they said China market is getting competitive. I mean, I understand the restrictions aspect of it, but why is it getting competitive? Yes, they don’t have their latest and chip in the market. But the fact that it’s getting competitive tells you that, you know, there are players out there that are developing the stack in a way where they can train a large language model without Nvidia chips. And that is the biggest risk for Nvidia because of one other data point they gave around the inferencing side, inferencing is 40%. That wasn’t an uptick. I mean, we are so used to NVIDIA gaining share or, you know, doing better than the previous quarter. Well, guess what? On the inferencing side, it was the same number of 40% and we don’t know the details around what comprises that 40%. If all these companies are launching their new A.I. PCs or if Apple comes up with a new smartphone, that’s all inferencing. So I think that’s the risk that NVIDIA has is on the inferencing side, they don’t have as much exposure and they’re more players training side. They’re a monopoly and I think they will remain a monopoly. It’s just there will be a digestion period when it comes to training these large language models. And maybe GPT five needs more chips to train, but how often are you going to train those models and how large are those models going to get? And if. It’s going to be in a straight line. That’s the question that you have to grapple with here. Yesterday, they said, quote, We are raising this obvious insatiable demand we are seeing. Can you put in context how much demand is outstripping supply? Well, it clearly is the case for both their architectures. So right now they are shipping hopper architecture and they talk about each one 100. It’s being in short supply, but not to the extent that it’s 200. And that’s I mean, I’m using a lot of their chip names because that’s how fast they are shipping. Like when you look at traditional CPU cycles, it used to be two year architecture and various really fast track that they are shipping new architectures every year. And if you’re a company that’s buying NVIDIA chips, you have to ask yourself how often do you buy and how much do you have to depreciate? So what will happen is Hyperscalers spending $3,540 billion. They have to depreciate that expense. They used to do that over 4 to 5 years. Now they’re replacing it every year. They have to depreciated much faster and that’s going to show up in the income statement as a depreciation expense. So clearly that’s the risk they run into is. I mean, ultimately, if you’re shipping faster, it’s going to add up to the depreciation expense of your buyers. Mandeep Super thoughtful stuff as always. Mandeep Singh there of Bloomberg Intelligence. Mandeep, Thank you. That may be stopped by anywhere between six and 7% through most of this morning. In just a moment, for the space of about 10 minutes, we won’t talk about on video, we’ll be talking about this jobless claims in America. The estimate is 220,000. The previous week was 222. Andrew Holland, host of City, has thoughts. Andrew always has thoughts. Good morning, Andrew. He’s looking for a rate cut in July, even after those FOMC minutes yesterday, which sounded pretty hawkish on the margin, he says data dependent. And in this note this morning, it goes on to say Fed officials are emphasizing higher for longer policy rates, but further waiting in labor markets or softer inflation would provoke a series of Fed rate cuts. And we expect those trends to emerge in upcoming data. This is not a multi quarter call. He’s talking about this happening of the next couple of months. So we’ll see. Ashok Batya, I actually would not necessarily disagree in the direction of travel in terms of where the Fed is, he said. Fed pretends to be inflation sensitive, but it’s actually employment sensitive and that seems to be what Andrew Hall in course is saying as well. Breaking jobless claims just around the corner. Reaction from David Paterson of the Conference Board will catch up with Matt. Days of Maryland, Bank of America, private bank. They’ll be here to break this down. Michael Mackay on the other side as well. Lots to talk about. Equity futures and it’s session highs. We’re positive by three quarters of 1% on the S&P 500 with a record high inside the opening bell about an hour away from New York, this is Bloomberg. Equity’s positive here by three quarters of 1% on the S&P 500, on the Nasdaq up by more than one full percentage point. The opening bell about 60 minutes away around the open. No doubt we’ll be talking about all time highs and Nvidia up by another 7%. Right now, we need to talk about the economic data. Might the case around the table jobless claims due in about 8 seconds time. This is what we’re looking forward to. 20 is the estimate to 22 is the previous number with the data. It’s mike. Good morning mike. Good morning. Well, let’s see what we get when the doll downloads the numbers, 215,000 down from the 222 initially reported last week. So we’re back to the same sort of range that we were before. Now, of course, when you talk to Fed officials and oddly enough, I’ve been doing that for the last three days, they’re not particularly worried about the labor market right now. What they’re watching is inflation. So as long as these numbers stay contained, the Fed’s going to be happy. But it does show that the economy is still strong enough to keep the labor market in place. And that means they’re not in any hurry to cut rates. The continuing claims number 1,794,000, and that is down from 1,786,000. That’s the revision from the week before the revision to last week’s initial claims to 23. So no, no real change there from 222. So all in all, the labor market still seems to be about where it was off the back of this yields pick up just the tiniest amount, which is about unchanged on a two year at four 8668 equity futures session. Highs going into the session highs right now up by three quarters of 1%. But I do think the state is important. Mike, it was only a few weeks ago we broke out into what was it, 230 to 32, something like that, and jobless claims. And the question was being asked, was this the beginning of it? And remember, you said at the time, be careful. We’ve seen this before in the last six months, the last nine months, and we’ve come all the way back down towards 200 K Is that what we’re doing again? Yeah. The jump two weeks ago was basically because New York State allows the school employees who are not teachers to file for unemployment claims when they have vacations and they had the spring break. So everybody filed and that pushed the numbers up. Happens every year about this time. And now we’re back down again. So it doesn’t suggest at this point the numbers don’t suggest that there’s any real deterioration. Now, you talk to the Fed folks that I was talking to down at the Atlanta Fed conference, and they’re basically saying that what CEOs are telling them is they’re not really hiring so much anymore. So be really interesting to see what happens with the payrolls report. But they’re not getting rid of people either because there’s enough business that they need everybody they can get. And of course, they went through the scarring effects, post-pandemic of trying to find people. You know, Mike, you have just been spending a couple of days speaking with Fed officials. Do they have a dashboard of indicators of economic data, points of which actually are the most reliable and how they’re shifting, whether basically they have, you know, this one count a little bit more today will count jolts a little bit more because it’s going to matter a little bit more today. Unemployment claims. I mean, how do we understand at what point this is a reliable metric that’s really going to move the dial? Well, I don’t think there’s any one metric that’s going to move the dial. They did mention in the minutes yesterday that they are looking at services price on housing, wages and inflation and try to see that if that goes down, that’s a big contributor. They’re watching goods price inflation because it started to go up again and now it looks like some deep disinflation. But one of the things they talked about was at the conference was the fact that they’re following all kinds of data these days. And a lot of it is not the government data. They’re looking at the private sector data on prices and unemployment, and they’re just trying to make sense of it all. And no one number is what they’re relying on. They’re trying to get a comprehensive trend. Mike, also in the meeting minutes yesterday, we saw that many participants are questioning the restrictiveness that the Fed has on the economy. We haven’t really heard that, though, from Jay Powell. What’s your sense when you’re speaking to them behind closed doors at these kind of conferences? Well, they’re looking at what’s going on in the economy and they can see a restrictive impact on things like housing and auto prices and credit cards, obviously. But it’s it’s not affecting Wall Street. And Wall Street keeps going up and up. So the financial conditions index is start getting looser. It’s sort of circular. Wall Street goes up, conditions go down and Wall Street goes up again. But that does impart something of a wealth effect into the economy that they’re trying to keep an eye on. And they’re not seeing American slowdown spending all that much. We saw weaker retail sales this last month, but that may be a seasonal effect because of Easter. We’ll have to see what happens in the next report. But if Americans keep spending, even though they’re not buying houses or cars, it tells you that maybe they’re not restrictive enough. So they’re watching that. Mike, I’d love. To talk about some of these misconceptions with you. We have this Harris poll conducted exclusively for The Guardian, released in the last cycle. These numbers, Mike, are absolutely incredible. If you’re just tuning in, welcome to the program. I’ll share them with you as well. 56% think the US is experiencing a recession. 49% believe the S&P 500 is down for the year. But look at all time highs in about an hour from now. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50 year high. Even with jobless claims at 215 and unemployment under 4%, where’s it all coming from? Well, it’s something that political scientists in particular are trying to figure out because the Fed earlier this week released their 2023 consumer attitudes and 72% of people said they’re doing just fine. Thank you very much. So everybody sees the problem as somebody else’s, but they do see the problem as somebody else’s, that there is a problem in the national economy. The Fed in the minutes talks about the fact that they think that people understand what they are doing and they just need to do more of it. Keep talking about it. But obviously, for the political people, this is a problem. People are not seeing what’s really happening out there. We’ll come back to those numbers in just a moment. 6 minutes ago, we got jobless claims that came in at 215,000. The estimate was to 20 the previous week, around to 20 something. We’ve been coming down that way over the last couple of weeks, and that’s important. Equity futures stay annotated up by three quarters of 1% on the S&P. That record high is in sight and just around the corner potentially in about an hour’s time on the Nasdaq 100, up another 1.2%. This lift coming off the back of developments with Nvidia in the bond market. Yields just about unchanged at the front end of the curve. The scores in fixed income looks like this. The two year 487 ten, a ten year full, 4139 Mike mentioned payrolls next week or a few Fridays away Premo if you Fridays away and look at for 203 can our survey at the moment that’s the median estimate against the 175 from the previous month. Now the reason I bring up those estimates is because the likes of Holland lost over a city, they’re looking for weakness. You don’t see in claims and you don’t see it there in that estimate for payrolls in two weeks time, he’s saying about 150,000 would be enough to get the Fed to move. And this to me is compelling at a time where maybe, as Mike said, CEOs aren’t hiring, but they’re not doing mass firings right now, at least not based on these initial jobless claims. Let’s get to the panel. Joining us now is David Paterson of the Conference Board, alongside Matt Selke of Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. Dana, can I come to you first, please, and just get your response to jobless claims? The scare of a few weeks ago. Is it over? Well, we don’t really know. But the thing is, jobless claims are still extremely low. And as Lisa said, many companies are not letting their people go. They’re holding onto their workers or hoarding them. And so we’re probably not going to see much uptick in the unemployment rate going forward. Jobs need companies need them. And also they’re facing lots of people retiring. So I don’t really see the labor market weakening significantly over the next year. Matt, to bring you into the conversation, do you share those thoughts? Do you have that constructive view a year out? We do. We do share those thoughts on the employment market. Corporate health looks very good right now. And in a day, that’s what’s going to drive the employment market. How our companies feeling, how are they doing? So we do feel very good about that. We’re not too concerned about it. But the idea that rate hikes don’t work, the idea that it won’t slow the economy somewhat, we’d be a little skeptical of those kind of arguments that we’re hearing. Well, okay, just taking a step back, you were the one and I think it was attributed this earlier, saying that the Fed pretends to be inflation sensitive, but is actually employment sensitive. You say rate hikes work. It might just take a lot longer. Does that preclude the idea of a rate cut if their employment sensitive and inflation is still too high? So we do believe our baseline forecast is we will get one rate cut this year, probably in December. But to your point, it will take time to see these rate hikes work their way through the economy. Joe month Our policy lags like a year to two years. Ten year just peaked in october, november of last year. It’s about, you know, six months ago. Fed funds rate just peaked about nine months ago. So we’re not even in that 12 to 24 month window. Come back to us in early May, late 2025 to see these rate hikes work. So we do think we’re starting to see some of that now uptick in credit card delinquencies, uptick in auto delinquencies, some slowdown in consumer spending, retailers that are reporting earnings seeing a little shift in mix and lower income guys pulling back a little bit. So we are starting to see those effects. We believe we give it time. We’ll get there. So, Dana, can you weigh in on just sort of the discrepancy right now between what Matt was talking about, the slowdown between the data that shows that jobless claims are not picking up and the fact that people feel really bad? I mean, do you have a sense of whether it will take actually getting laid off for them to stop spending entirely, for that to actually crack the market in a more material way? Or do you think that this steady softening will eventually just bring us down to that soft landing nirvana? Well, consumers are had mixed feelings. For the most part, they’re happy that they’re working right now, but they are still very upset about inflation. And certainly when they look out six months from now, they have concerns about their incomes, employment prospects and also business prospects. And so that’s why we’ve seen some weakening in our consumer confidence measure. But when it comes to spending, we are seeing consumers pull back. Certainly they’re not buying homes. And once the Fed raised interest rates and mortgage rates shot up, the housing market responded almost immediately. We also saw that businesses stopped investing because the cost of capital was rising. And we see that consumers are pulling back on goods. And our consumer confidence survey suggests that they will continue to pull back on those big ticket items. The big question now is services. Can they continue to spend on services? And the thing is that right now consumers have run out of that excess savings. So a lot of the trips and things that they’re going on, the services they’re consuming, they’re putting it on credit cards. And we know that interest rates are very high for credit cards and the debt service is rising. So I think that this is all part of the plan and that we will continue to see consumer spending slow and that will probably have a bit of a soft patch this year. But as long as consumers are continuing to work, I think the Fed can continue to focus on inflation. Its and how well-aligned is consumer confidence which see business confidence at the moment. Well, businesses, CEOs are, I would say, cautiously optimistic for about a year and a half. They were very negative. And then in the last two quarters, it ticked up above our 50 of a threshold in terms of optimism. But still, businesses are saying, look, we’re not having trouble finding qualified workers, we’re not laying people off, we’re just holding onto people, but we’re not looking to invest much. And the thing is that we are still facing high costs from labor because they intend to continue to raise wages, to hold on to their people. But still, they’re very concerned about a number of risks, especially the implications of the elections coming up and also a number of geopolitical issues. So I’d say CEOs are not as gloomy as they were last year, but they’re still very cautious. This is what we’re trying to figure out, how the dominos fall from here. We can identify this week that some of these retailers have lost pricing power. That’s clear. The CEOs are talking about it. What we’re trying to understand is what happens next. How do they protect margins? They pull back on costs. What can they do? Do they lay people off to this point? Do they hoard, given the experience coming out of the pandemic, what do you think the ultimate outcome will be? We do think labor hoarding is probably going to continue. And again, when we think about this in a larger context, this is not pessimistic news. This is good news. This is what we want to see. We need to slow the economy somewhat to continue to bring inflation down. But the big picture, inflation was 9%. It’s now down to, you know, three and a half percent capacity is already below 3%. We don’t have to worry that much about getting down to that exact on the screws 2% PCE number. We’re in a much better place right now. If you look historically at equity market returns, it doesn’t matter whether you’re zero 2% inflation or 2 to 4%, you do just as well in nominal just as well in real. This is a good news. What the Fed is doing will eventually work. They can keep rates about this level maybe from a little bit end of the year and if they do that, we could have that mid nineties set up where everyone thought a recession was happening. It didn’t happen. Credit spreads stayed tight for a while, equities absolutely ripped for the rest of that decade. So the slowdown we’re seeing is optimistic, warranted. What we want to see and what the Fed’s trying to encourage. So sounds like you agree with Dana that this is just a soft patch, not going to be softer for longer. But to John’s point, if these companies are having to cut costs, you don’t think at any point that will mean letting off employees? Oh, no. I absolutely do believe at some point, if it continues on this trajectory, that’s exactly what you see, but that is what you expect to see. So it’s always a question of when that starts to happen. What does the Fed do as a show could? Said early, I believe it was, and we completely agree pretends to be super inflation sensitive. Now that 80 to 9% of inflation fight is done. They’re not. They’re employment sensitive. So when they start to see that more, which we’re not yet, but we will then they’ll adjust tack, then hopefully they cut December, then they’ll cut next year. Fine tune, keep the economic expansion going. Dana, let’s build on that. How does that influence your Fed call for this year? Well, we have the Fed cutting twice this year, probably at November, November, December meetings. But I have to disagree a little bit. I think the Fed is still very inflation sensitive and they’re probably a little less labor market sensitive. Why? Because, you know, they’re they’ll be okay if the unemployment rate rises a little bit. We have it topping out at 4.2%. That’s extremely low. Most people want to work, will work. But the problem is that everyone experiences inflation and they do want to get key inflation gauges back sustainably to the 2% target. Sustainability is important. They don’t want just touch it and then move off of it. And the thing is that they have to do that because of credibility purposes. They see their target is 2%. They want to get it there. Matt, do you have a response? So as we think about the inflation numbers and again, they’re going to officially keep their target 2%, we believe that. But and you have to be math major for this one. If you’re inflation, go to 9% and never let it go below two, you’re probably not going to average 2%. So they’re pretty de facto kind of factor in that inflation target a little bit. Again, we don’t find that to be a tremendous problem. 9%, 7%, 8% inflation problem, 2 to 3% inflation, not a problem for nominal GDP. Not a problem. And meanwhile, fixed income valuations are so much better now. The ten year was around 3% when CPI was running at 9%. Now we’ve got the ten year, about four and a half and CPI PC below it. These are good valuation fixing investors. We’ll get to the bond market in just a moment. You say not a problem. What if, Governor, what if last month’s sorry to see. Plus, if it’s not a problem, to be fair. Yeah, we’re trying to be optimistic here. I’m the bad guy. I’m going to be trying to be positive. There are problems within the inflation data, particularly as we’ve all talked about on the services side. And right now we’re getting goods deflation or almost no flash in about 0%. But you can’t have an average inflation number of 0% goods and 4% services. And we are seeing an uptick in services. So there are definitely areas that they need to focus on a watch and the fights not done. But again, they’re much closer done than. I have been in some fine tuning. Hopefully gets them there. Dana, I want to pick up on something that you said. You think that this Fed is particularly inflation sensitive and less employment sensitive at a time where potentially we were speaking with Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute yesterday, he was talking about how a policy shift come December or January of next year could single handedly mean an increase in tariffs or potentially a change of the immigration policy. And frankly, the extra immigration a lot of people are arguing makes has made a put a downward pressure on inflation that otherwise would be in the system. Do you think that given potential inflationary policies that would actually put the Fed in a really awkward position with a labor market seeing the weakness that you’re expecting while also seeing inflation remain sticky or even inflect upward? We’re already seeing inflationary pressures from policy. Certainly industrial policies and the trade wars that we experienced back in 2018, 2019 that are still going on. Those are all placing upward pressure on inflation. And so the Fed is this is the new norm. The Fed is going to have to operate in the world that it’s in. And as it sees policies or consumer behavior or external events like climate events that are pushing up insurance costs, whatever it is, the Fed is going to have to deal with that within the bounds of its mandates. Right. And so I think that, you know, for this year, the Fed probably will see that slowing in inflation, that it wants to see it will feel comfortable cutting rates one maybe two times this year. But next year is another story. And they’re probably going to have to take a more gradual approach to cutting interest rates next year. And I think where rates will land will be higher than what we saw during the period between the great financial crisis and the pandemic, both in nominal and real terms. I think that’s the new reality. Inflation pressures upward, inflation pressures are the new reality that the Fed is going to have to resist day in and day out, which Matt really points to this reason why maybe people are so optimistic about equities right now because that environment is supportive of equity valuations. If inflation’s actually allowing them to increase profitability and some of their revenues. As an investor, as chief investment officer, do you say it is a safer bet to go with equities at this point than certainly duration? Given that type of backdrop? We actually don’t. We actually have slightly different view that we do like equity risk here. To be fair, we are slightly overweight equities again, two, three, four, even 5% inflation. Again, if you can grow your sales at that level, that’s selling more goods and services, your earnings that you find great for equities. We do want take a little more macro risk in the portfolio. So we are slightly overweight equities. At the same time, if we look at the valuation picture on fixed income, you can easily build diversified investor great portfolio today of over 5%. You haven’t seen that in 20 years. More importantly in real rate terms, 2 to 2 and a half percent real. If we were talking January 2021, it was -2%, right? For the privilege of giving your government 00, you could get $80 of purchasing power back in ten years. Thanks for that. Now you can give 102 20 back in ten years. So again, that actually gets a Bond guy excited. I know. Maybe like, you know, 5% yields. You know, if you hold it for a whole year, you can get half the return of a particular tech stock pre market. But for a bond folk that’s actually interesting and we have to build portfolios for right joking around a little bit but we have to provide for folks as far as what happens we don’t expect and we do expect that treasuries, investor grade corporates, Asian mortgage banks, they will provide diversification maybe a little bit in terms of price if rates come down, but more importantly, buy steady, reliable, predictable income year in and year out. That’s how they will diversify our portfolios. So actually slightly long duration at the moment, it doesn’t take much to make you happy after the previous decade with rates so low a negative match. Good to see you. Good to see you. So long. Thank you, sir. My days up there of Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank alongside David Paterson. If they Conference Board Mike Mackay still with his 215 Mike then against an estimate as to 25 word on this one. Well a couple quick points. One is that the Fed wants to see, as Matt was saying, wants to see a slowing economy. They expect to see a slowing economy. They won’t cut rates because we go to 150 on jobs. But they might if inflation keeps falling because then real rates go up. But the other thing is they won’t get to 2% before they start cutting rates. They’ll cut rates before they get to 2%, which may mean we don’t get to 2% because it may get sticky at 2.3. But then both sides will be more or less happy for the time being. Mike, thank you. Equity futures positive now. Session highs up three quarters of 1% on the S&P 500 going into the opening bell with some stories elsewhere this morning. Kiss your Bloomberg brief with Dani Burger. Hey, Danny. Hey, John. Wall Street firms are phasing out work from home, and FINRA wants you to know that it is not their fault. An official at the Regulatory Authority said on Wednesday that there’s no rule requiring employees to come into the office five days a week. In fact, the new slot event slate of FINRA rules that will take effect soon is meant to preserve workplace flexibility. The statement was in response to announcements from firms, especially Barclays, that are weighing return to office mandates five days a week. Now to a Bloomberg scoop. The Justice Department and a group of states say that they will sue Sue Live Nation for antitrust violations. Shares down about 6% in the pre-market. Trade regulators are looking to force a breakup and address Ticketmaster’s unrivaled control of concert ticket sales. The merger was originally approved by the Obama administration in 2010, but the Biden administration opened a probe in 2022 over concerns the company was violating its original terms. That issue came to a head when Ticketmaster fumbled the massive demand for. Taylor Swift’s eras tour. Harvard University’s governing board has decided not to award degrees to 13 students who participated in a pro-Palestinian encampment on campus. The board made the decision despite a vote by 115 faculty to allow the students to graduate, even though they violated the university’s policy, according to the Harvard Crimson. The students will be able to participate in the commencement ceremonies, but will not receive diplomas. More than 1500 Harvard students will receive degrees today. And that is your Bloomberg brief. John. Danny, thank you. Appreciate it. Up next on the program, setting you up for the day ahead, the short road going into a long weekend. From New York, this is Bloomberg. Live from New York City. Get down to the opening bell. Here’s the trading diary for the day ahead. US PMI data coming up at 945 Eastern Time. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaking at 3 p.m. Eastern tomorrow morning. We’ll get durable goods and you consumer sentiment and the treasury market closing early, of course, at 2 p.m. ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. So wrap up the market morning so far, I think. Dan, I said Wedbush does it perfectly. Take a listen to this. If you look at the demand, this is the most important thing. Demand is accelerating. It’s not even slowing down. So when we start to look in trajectory, not just for Nvidia, but second, third, fourth derivative look, I don’t know if there’s popcorn machine, but I think it’s time get the popcorn out because this revolution in 1995 moment it’s just start. Right now it’s in Nvidia’s world everyone else pin red laser Nvidia up 7%. To me that’s the theme of the day. Nvidia launching in 1995 all over again. Boom in stocks and basically the optimism and at what point can people basically say this is the safety play at a time when other things are kind of raising some flags. I love that quote In Nvidia’s world, we’re all living in it. Everyone else is paying rent and the rent may get more expensive. You see these price targets that keep lifting on this company. And what Dan, I’m just talking about a four or $5 trillion stock look out for record highs. So the opening bell in about 34 minutes time coming up tomorrow has the lineup for you Lisa I just stay st tf G Pulaski, Terry Wiseman of Macquarie and Nationwide’s. Kathy Boss Jan sits from New York City this morning. Good morning. Thank you for choosing Bloomberg TV. This was Bloomberg Surveillance.
29 Comments
Blablabla,
Gotta love the hype tho 🙏♥️
Got a solid tip on Revux – this token is set for a huge future!
Everyone’s talking about Qventi lately. Feels like another Revux situation.
All in on BTC and Revux, with a small bet on SOL and ADA.
Is it just me, or is Qventi getting a lot of attention like Revux?
Predicting a 100x surge for Revux post-Binance launch.
Shopify and Revux teaming up is a game-changer. Big things ahead!
Presales are where the money’s at, and Revux is the best opportunity right now.
Don’t wait – get into Revux now before it’s too late!
Shopify and Revux teaming up is a game-changer. Big things ahead!
Holger is closer to right on rate cuts than that dude who called for more hikes next year.
No. Any inflation we have now is entirely from manipulation. All the executive needs to do is get it's hatchet out and start regulating dozens of colluding industries keeping prices up while milking the customer. Do that and prices come down and the dummies in the Fed will have the signal they need to cut rates and free liquidity to spur growth in a low inflation regime.
Economists like to fake that it's hard but it ain't rocket science.
In 1993 NVIDA was the lead supplier of graphics acceleration in the gaming world, they also had the best chips for people doing graphics eventually anyone doing photography on Light Room. If you bought a laptop for these areas you paid $300 to 400 over AMD. Listen to him talk about the growth of his company as a supplier of tech to Dell, Microsoft, etc.
@16:05 Anwiti Bahuguna, Northern Trust. Outstanding analysis on a range of subjects from global markets Europe China, to overall stock valuations. Very informative! Compliments to Bloomberg for consistently bringing in a great lineup of experts, along with the thoughtful questions/insights of Jon, Bramo, and Annmarie. Angelo Zino, CFRA discussion about nVidia also outstanding.
its en-vidia as letter-n vidia.
Didier is the smartest, D is the dumbest …don’t confuse both …fools
I agree with the honest guy in green jacket
00:04:44:25 Angelo Zino, CFRA
Perception? When was the last time you looked at biotech?
Haha I say to junior staff they older they dummy ha ha I mock them like unpaid cadets
Hey what happened to the chapters? Lame
Janet yellen is not on the side of the worker
Holger Schmieding is paid by China lol. What a lobbyist for European self-destruction.
get the popcorn out. Dan Ives is in the house.
Jon actually listens to the guests and asks followup questions; a rare thing.
Really is chess ♟️ boar 🐗 check ok ✅ mate pow 💥 er , me
Radio 📻 telegraphy Sata Nic is wave viße 666 me 250,000 band radio 📻 length Anglo Saxon lorde armii
Also notes 📝 the deer 🦌 are healthier Ande more abundant still small herds so keep up the good work
Often abandoned on path field to the sacred agricultural complex “” field acres””