Is A Desertion Crisis Brewing In the Russian Army?

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Original Video:
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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is a desertion crisis spreading among Russian troops even Putin’s new defense minister acknowledging Russia has to do something I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about it so the story here first off is that it appears desertions are on the rise first off among some of Russia’s well most embittered uh folks or soldiers including foreign mercenaries like the nepes supposedly there have been a number of large scale desertions by nepes mercenaries uh who claim it is due to ill treatment and heavy losses now the report is that uh nepes mercenaries right recruited to fight in the Russian military assigned to uh literally just a Serial numbered unit uh usually assigned that that unit’s not going to last that long if they not even worth getting a name um and that’s literally true a lot of storm Z units all also have similar five five-digit designations instead of lower casualty units like having names like oh the 138 combined arms army or the sixth tank guards um these nepes in this unnamed unit uh felt they were the subject of huge losses in and brutally treated by their field commanders including shockingly extrajudicial executions for refusing to follow orders and finally in the final straw the fighters were not paid the money they were promised as a result of course they went and deserted and mass you can see all these wanted posters from the Russian military trying to find these uh nepales soldiers who in all likelihood are working their way home right as they point out getting from occupied Lans back to Nepal is not easy nepales citizens May face FR prosecution in their country for participating in hostilities against Ukraine as part of the Russian military and as a result the desire to earn easy money is a trap for nepes Mercenaries with no way out says the defense intelligence of Ukraine now what I thought was interesting of course is that the fact that Russia you know it can be understood that in a country like Russia you’re a foreign mercenary you’re going to get treated pretty badly you’re going to get treated worse than the Russian conscripts who are notorious ly mistreated but it’s not just the nepes who are deserting and mass in fact according to one leaked Ukrainian intelligence report Russia has had over 18,000 desertions this year uh and this is just within the Southern military District this is from April 29th right the eth combined arms army fighting in eastern Ukraine has had about 12,000 of those deserters uh 10,000 of which are conscripts right who are coerced in various ways to fight and about 2,000 contract soldiers which is interesting cuz conscripts aren’t even supposed to be fighting in Ukraine um but what I think they mean by conscripts is probably uh individuals who are not uh so contract soldiers tend to be soldiers who’ve completed uh their full course of military training and are specialist I think conscript here refers to individuals who were given draft notices um who are technically part of the Russian military reserve and individuals who were um recruited to fight from we’ll say low skill environments uh primarily prison Fighters uh Fighters recruited from Russian penal colonies I think probably also like civilians who were kind of drafted in or signed up to fight in these storm Z units um but you also have of course 2500 soldiers from the 58th combined arms Army this is an interesting ratio and it says basically that there’s a huge problem within the eighth combined arms Army specifically um the British intelligence right agreeing broadly with the UK or Ukrainian assessment but this poor morale is just Russia’s just trying to offset it by scooping up even more Personnel right they think that over the next so in the Russian conscription cycle which again Russian conscripts not supposed to be sent to Ukraine um they’re going to get about 150,000 new conscripts to join the Russian military and undoubtedly a lot of those conscripts when they finish their term of service are going to be very strongly encouraged by the R by their commanders to become contract soldiers right so uh in and of course in March uh British intelligence indicated that Russia is bringing in about 30 thousand new soldiers every month to fight in Ukraine again they’re using the word conscripting um but it’s a little more of a gray area this is probably a combination of conscripts who then become contract soldiers of um prisoners and and extremely impoverished Russian civilians who get limited training and then serve in storm Z units probably this also includes foreign mercenaries brought in from abroad so I think this all indicates to me a diminishing Russian morale and I saw a post that I could not find so I I wonder if it was true but I’ll share the rumor with you was that Russian forces were actually handed a little leaflet like a like a sort of um notice from Mil Russian high command that was like thanks for fighting for the motherland you’re a true hero as a reminder desertion is is uh can be um comes with a penalty of uh up to like 10 years in Russian prison and will impact your family’s benefits Thanks For Fighting uh it was really pretty weird um and I could not find it so it makes me think that maybe it got pulled off because it wasn’t real uh but it seems it it certainly has the vibe of something that is correct um based on what we’ve seen about kind of the Russian military apparatus now if you are feeling exhausted hopefully you’re not if you’re a Russian conscript you should probably try to surrender to Ukraine right you’re you’re going to fa better than being being in Russia um but if you’re just you know tired you try some strike gum strike gum.com 90 milligrams of caffeine 100 milligrams of alpha GPC zero sugar right it’s just a better objectively better energy drink alternative this has the caffeine of five energy drinks in every single pack so check us out at strike gum.com if you want those veteran discounts and new customer discounts or you can find us on Amazon just search strike gum energy and you’ll find us there we also now have a five pack uh so that if you’re not really wanting to get the entire tray but you also don’t want to order just a single pack you can get a five-pack um which it’s so new that we don’t even have the photos up yet but trust me it’s there at strike gum.com okay why do you think the Russian troops are so very upset well the answer is the losses they’ve been suffering in hardke are exceptional and we’ve talked about in previous video why the Russian army seems to be relying on a highrisk tactic of having very small fighting groups kind of permeate across the front line and then gather at key points and then conduct an assault the problem is is that when you travel as groups of like five that basically there is no military formation small enough for you to take you are basically a walking Target five light infantry Soldiers with no support uh you can’t you if they were to encounter uh a three-man Ukrainian position they would be unable to take it um it’s one of the core problems sort of fundamental to the military tactics is that units have to be divisible in order to function um or to maneuver right because again core Maneuvers are things like in the milit in the US military we call battle drill one alpha one part of your element becomes a support by fire engages With the Enemy and suppresses a second element flanks around and conducts the assault right there’s also I think a version that the Marine Corps sometimes does where you have a base of fire abound they become the base abound abound abound until you’ve front you’ve conducted a frontal assault on the enemy um but the core idea is that you have to have there’s a certain minimum right usually it’s like three Soldier minimums right so if you are operating as a fiveman fire team you cannot divide that fire team further you you can’t what what are you going to do you really think you’re going to assault an entrenched position with two dudes not possible Right you literally can’t even like two soldiers can sort of kind of secure their own personal space right because you can get one they can go boot tooot sort of in a in a true emergency but anything beyond any sort of combat task you’re not going to they’re not going to be able to do it um effectively uh so when you have this kind of Reckless tactical Choice it makes sense that the casualties that are rumored to be coming out of this harke offensive are up to 70% of the attacks uh which is preposterous by any military standards except the Russian military um there are rumors that the whole 138 separate motor rifle Brigade and the 18th motor rifle Division and the seventh separate motor rifle regiment have all become combat in effective due to high casualties um there’s also some rumors that regular Russian units and their conscript storm Z units are also contributing where Storm Z units feel uh a predictably uh looked down on by regular Russian units who have actual training and that this sort of tension is sort of permeating across the military um you can see here right that the this has become such an issue that even Russia’s new defense minister has said has acknowledged he’s kind of it’s kind of a real problem uh new the new defense minister bav said on May 14th in his speech when he assumed power that his main priority is to win the war in Ukraine no with quote minimal human losses and he himself said I am I he said at the same time and I want to specifically emphasize this with minimal human losses end quote that is really interesting for the first time we’ve heard Russia acknowledge that it’s taken problematically huge casualties very very interesting stuff right and an unusual acknowledgement from Russia again officially Russia’s had something like less than 10,000 official casualties in this special military operation uh so very strange that there’s such a tremendous empasis coming from the Kremlin on this problem anyway guys that’s all I had of course if you want access to videos the fighting um my uncensored analysis is available for members on coment news.com thanks to all the members like the video see you