G4/G5 Geomagnetic Storm has Started! How will Earth’s Magnetic Field Hold?

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Data:
Realtime Solar Wind https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
Realtime Dst https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_realtime/presentmonth/index.html
Hp30-Hp60 Index https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/en/hp30-hp60
Intermagnet https://imag-data.bgs.ac.uk/GIN_V1/GINForms2

Credit:
NASA
NOAA
WDC Center for Geomagnetism – Kyoto
GFZ Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam

#spaceweather #space #geophysics #geomagneticstorm #ascension #solarcycle25 #solarflares #coronalmassejections

hi everyone my name is Stefan Burns I’m a geophysicist and the G4 geomagnetic storm has begun with the potential for it to increase to a G5 because now we have five major full Halo CMEs heading towards Earth they’ve started to arrive so we will look at our data really quickly just to give you an update based on my prior videos so here’s our real-time solar win by NOAA this is the one day we see our black line is our total field strength red line is the Southward component for the interplanetary magnetic field and we see how this recent bundle of increased solar wind strength has caused everything else to Flatline in comparison here is our Kp index our three-hour measure of geomagnetic activity down below 7.67 for the beginning of this storm we will look at the Hp30 index to get a higher resolution look at that let’s look at our 6h hour view and we will see that our solar wind strength was about five the black line This is measured at the L1 Lagrange point so it takes about an hour to go from here to Earth depending on the velocity we see the purple line there that the velocity for the solar wind is about 460 km and immediately jumped to 673 then all the way up into the 700s where it is kind of stabilizing we see three distinct packets here so three plasmoids one right there here’s another and there’s a third so the first one was weaker than the second and the third one the main body of this first coronal mass ejection very powerful black line interplanetary magnetic field total strength 46 nanotesla the red line -43 meaning a very strong connection to Earth’s magnetic field because it is negative Earth’s magnetic field has a positive orientation in that vertical component and with a total field strength of 50 this allows the interplanetary magnetic field to connect much deeper into Earth’s magnetic field Earth’s magnetic field drops off with the inverse Square law and so the stronger the interplanetary magnetic field the deeper it gets into Earth’s plasmasphere and the stronger the geomagnetic storm so we’ve had our first wave of energy here now the southwards component has gone up a little bit total field strength is still very high but we have many more Cal Mass ejections on the way so we just had a 3.98 x-class flare let’s look at that looking at the top right you’ll see that we are in a minor radiation storm right now adding to the overall instability of Earth’s magnetic field at this moment at time we’ll talk about that but first we have this 3.98 x-class flare that erupted from the Sun at about 650 a.m. UTC time that launched a full Halo CME we also had another high m-class flare here later in the afternoon so there is more solar energy coming our way this will take about two days or so to reach the Earth so we have a period of extended geomagnetic storming ahead of us and this just started here is our coronagraph so we can look at that 3.98 x-class flare you’ll see it start right about here there it goes it’s a full Halo though it’s weaker on this side so some of the energy is broadcast more heavily in One Direction but it still has that full Halo characteristic and it’s at quite a fast velocity so we do have now five major full Halo CMEs on route to Earth they’ve started to already come in that first cannibal CME has arrived and this is an extended period of GIC storming that we have ahead of us and this is on top of a solar proton radiation storm that also got kicked off by this 3.9 x-class flare here is our proton flux for the past 3 days you see that started to increase for the greater than 10 MeV protons starting back around the 9th but then after that 3.98 x-class flare you see here it’s about 8 a.m. after that it dramatically spiked sending us into a proton radiation storm and these protons will funnel down the polar field cusps so the North Pole and the South Pole and they will charge the ionosphere there giving it Greater charge just like the coronal mass ejection particles will do and then all those heightened electromagnetic potentials of the northern pole cusp and the southern polar cusp will then flow out and equalized towards the equator and that is one of the things that causes these big shifts in Earth’s magnetic field but it also dramatically Alters Earth’s global electric circuit which of course we live in and so we feel these Effects by a physically it also contributes to the induction of telluric currents into things like the power grid and can be the reason why we have power grid failures especially during very strong storms G3 G4 and even potentially G5 because we have so many separate coronal mass ejections coming in one after another that this very long period of geomagnetic storming that we have could just simply overwhelm certain critical infrastructure with time here we have our Hp30 index of geomagnetic activity this is like the Kp index but it is a 30 minute measure so you see we have 8.33 8.67 and then two more values at 8.33 so this just started we are 2 hours in and we already have a value close to 9 which would be a G5 storm so we are right in that range in between G4 and G5 at this moment in time this is a very powerful geomagnetic storm and it’s just getting started and we have multiple days ahead of us here is the space weather prediction model from NOAA run on the 9th of May at 1300 UTC and we see four separate coronal mass ejections get launched and impact the Earth this Green Dot right there plasma density spikes to about 100 velocity goes close to 900 km/s and this is a very power geomagnetic storm that they’re forecasting but this model has not been updated for the other Halo CMEs that have launched from the Sun so this model is now out of date and it is not fully showing the complete picture and of course every model is not going to be 100% accurate or reflect reality as it will play out but just what we’re seeing is that this model thus far has been quite accurate in predicting the KP indices that we are seeing at this moment time and keep in mind that there are more coronal mass ejections heading our way because this model has not accounted for those yet they have not updated it since but this gives us a nice visual as to the density and the velocity of these and how they are impacting the Earth and traveling through interplanetary space this is the Sunspot group that is causing all the fuss this is 3664 and then here on the left side 3668 but it’s really one Mega Sunspot cluster and if we punch in on it we see just how many magnetic cores there are how embedded they are into each other how mixed they are how deep they are and this is an area of massive magnetic field flux emerging from the Sun and that’s why there’s been so many coronal Mass ejections from this spot this is really indicating very strongly how we are now at maximum for solar cycle 25 the solar magnetic field is perfectly mid flip and therefore it’s at its most chaotic and it has its greatest energy output flux into interplanetary space of course here at 1 AU one astronomical unit away from the Sun the Earth is quite close to the Sun and therefore receives a lot of solar energy especially during solar maximum and here’s our magnetogram for the Sun for the same time period May 10th 1815 UTC and here we see our same Sunspot group blue is positive polarity red is negative we see how inter bed they are this has evolved since my last video it looks like it’s strengthened in some ways but there isn’t as much intermixing in terms of some of these smaller polarities some of the smaller cores have faded but the Sunspot overall is still very very large and keep in mind that this Sunspot group could survive its rotation around the non Earth-facing Side of the Sun and come around again we have had that happen many times before and so we could be looking at a repeat of this entire geomagnetic storming sequence in about a month’s time if this Sunspot group remains stable active and keeps causing this massive energy outpouring into our solar system here is our Dst index another measure of geomagnetic activity and this is based on the ring current so this is an equatorial current of protons and electrons that circles around the earth and when the ring current strengthens Earth’s magnetic field weakens and so this is one of the best measures of geomagnetic storming now we see this geomagnetic storm there on the second quite strong negative 100 nanotesla it just touched that the smaller storm that we had on the fifth you’ll see the beginning of this storm here actually shot the Dst index up which shows that the ring current weakened but now it’s starting to drop below zero nanotesla showing a strengthening effect so this is kind of anomalous there we’ll see how this evolves over the next day or two but expect this to go sharply negative below 100 probably below 200 but again it remains to be seen this increase in the Dst value is quite anomalous and unexpected so we can’t really make any forecast as to what the Dst will show but what this is demonstrating is that so far the solar wind is having interesting interactions with Earth’s ring current as compared to normal we see with this geomagnetic storm here it just went straight down same with this one this one though is interacting with the ring current different and this is going to modify the overall effects of Earth’s global electric circuit as a result we’ll conclude this video by looking at Earth’s magnetic field strength specifically using Intermagnet a network of global magnetic field observatories and we’ll look at Uppsala Sweden because that is located close to the north magnetic pole and we see here that the total field strength has started to plummet in Sweden we have our different components up top we have X we have y we have Z we can see these little bumps there those are the normal diurnal variations in Earth’s magnetic field but then during the arrival of the storm we see a massive increase in the strength in the X component also in the total component but then a massive drop so there is this massive swing happening in Earth’s total magnetic field strength at this moment time in Uppsala we can look at our scale here this is 51,9 nanotesla down to 51,0 450 nanotesla I expect this to drop even more than what we’re seeing here and also to start swinging very volatile uh across both directions so you can look at Intermagnet for your local area at least for a magnetic field observatory near you to see what is happening for example I can to look at Boulder Colorado and we’ll get a a sense of Middle America and we see that the magnetic field strength has been dropping in Boulder Colorado but not as much as compared to near the north magnetic polar cusp region which is where Uppsala is so we see this diagonal variation there uh and now this geomagnetic storm is rolling in causing the values to drop about 150 nanotesla approximately so you can look at Intermagnet to get a really good sense of Earth’s magnetic field strength what’s happening with it and all those other data portals that I referenced in the video I will link in the video description for you wishing you all well this storm is just getting started if it is night time where you are then go outside you may catch some Aurora especially if you are in mid to high latitudes and I hope you have a great time with this I hope you’re feeling well now is a great time to practice earthing and grounding if you’re feeling any effects like headache or fatigue or inflammation then know that you can go outside put your feet on the ground and that will help you tremendously sending you all a lot of love and light take care and I’ll see you all in the next video