► Get your tickets to the BitBlockBoom bitcoin conference at https://www.BitBlockBoom.com
SOCIAL MEDIA
► https://Twitter.com/BitBlockBoom
► https://www.linkedin.com/company/BitBlockBoom
► https://Instagram.com/BitBlockBoom
►NOSTR – npub1vxfg5aqvj3juvzflry2t9m8fn7u4r0dttjtv099ntn2l2e0h9n3qzxhunh
MUST HAVE LINKS – The following are a must have for Bitcoiners.
► Fold App
Win free bitcoin with the Fold wheel daily and receive free bitcoin using Fold gift cards.
https://use.foldapp.com/r/U6G6K2Yf
► Swan Bitcoin
Install Swan Bitcoin on your phone, create an account and start DCAing bitcoin today.
https://www.SwanBitcoin.com/Gary/
►Orange Pill App
A mobile app for iOS & Android that was created by a group of Bitcoiners who thought there had to be a better way to connect with other Bitcoiners locally.
https://signup.theorangepillapp.com/opa/garyleland
► Strike App
Install Strike on your phone to create an account and receive $5 from https://Strike.me/gary
► Cash App
Install the Cash App on your phone to create an account and receive $5 https://cash.app/app/frvjbbd
► Lolli
Earn $5 on signup and bitcoin rewards when you shop at 10,000 plus stores.
https://lolli.com/share/nsyent
► sMiles
Earn free bitcoin for things you already do https://join.smilesbitcoin.com/GaryLeland510
► RoundlyX
Roundup your spare change on everyday purchases and automatically buy Bitcoin, donate to your favorite charities, and accumulate spending credits at a discount at your favorite brands with ease.
https://app.roundlyx.com/signup?ref_code=Gary-D56CBC
►The Bitcoin Company
Download The Bitcoin Company app to start earning bitcoin back on all your everyday purchases
https://thebitcoincompany.com/refer/?code=Gary
THIS IS A BITBLOCKBOOM PRODUCTION.
[Music] [Applause] thank you how are you all doing how’s it going do you like uh do you like the topic uh actually I gotta go show you the first slide I guess where are we oh I gotta hold on uh-huh ready for that okay Let’s uh let’s get going I have a whole bunch of slides so um let’s uh let’s get into it yeah I want to talk about inflation economics I want to talk about what I call the end of the bailout binge and also I have some interesting um maps that I think a lot of you won’t have seen yet about potentially the demographics of Bitcoin uh first of all big picture these are not at all normal times that we live in uh what I’m showing you there in blue is the cover of a little book um published in 1988 by Gerald Swanson it’s called the hyperinflation survival guide and on the pa the insights page he explains why he put that red uh crazy chart on the cover and he’s saying this is the government debt he’s saying where we are now in 1988 it’s at 2.5 trillion dollars and he projected it at 13 trillion by the year 2000 and he was spot on if you if you include unfunded liabilities he was spot on I mean data is just absolutely exploded officially it’s 31 trillion dollars but really uh if you talk to an accountant they’ll say it’s actually 160 trillion dollars um and it’s not like that debt is all long dated like most of the debt is actually very short dated paper which means they have to turn it over very quickly just to renew the debt right as you as you would which means government debt is very sensitive to inflation oh sorry very sensitive to interest rates and so what you see there on the left that chart is showing you the interest rates on one year government bonds which is now the highest it’s been in well over 20 years um so real real serious problem just to like make it a little more concrete like imagine the U.S federal government being a household they would have about fifty nine thousand dollars in annual income their annual expenditures would be a hundred thousand dollars a year like can you imagine the outstanding debt again extremely conservatively estimated 416 000 dollars well right now the interest rates are estimated to be over 20 percent of the tax income of the federal government that’s because of these interest rate Rises this is more than military spending I’m going to skip the next slide but if you pause it if there’s ever a video of this you can just see for yourself the interest rate uh the interest payments on the debt jumped 34 in just one year now of course when we read the media when we look at the news like clearly there’s a lot of denial about what’s going on um you know the the White House talks about the immaculate disinflation which what is disinflation anyway it’s like if you actually figure out what it means it’s like it’s not deflation it’s not the inflation like going away it’s just the pace of the inflation slowing down a bit so it’s like the cancer is growing but a little bit slower um you know they’re talking about there’s no recession I mean yeah in an inflationary environment every everything is skewed so of course you’re going to see headlines like this um this is a chart that actually like the one on the right is actually one that uh Larry what’s his last name again yeah Larry Summers exactly Larry Summers shared that one um he’s correctly pointing out that inflation comes in waves don’t expect inflation to be linear uh he’s comparing current inflation with what we saw in the 1970s and I think it’s kind of a tempting narrative for people to go to now it’s like oh yeah you know we’ve been here this is like the 70s well I honestly I doubt that this is just a repeat of the 1970s just like a lost decade and then you know we’re gonna have you know a brave Central Banker come in and crank up the interest rates and we’ll be fine it’s like no we cannot afford to crank up the interest rates because then uh Bond markets implode so some of the slide the things that I’m showing here is um is uh what we’ve seen uh in in the year 2020 2021 we saw the nft craze we saw people going insane with flipping houses and trying to get in in the housing market we saw Wall Street bets yoloing into crazy stocks like AMC and just you know just throwing around money to to pump pump up stocks and then of course uh you know luxury watches there was also a craze there so all that stuff like what what does that really mean like does it have anything does it mean like people are just losing their minds nowadays I want to argue that not I think this is a byproduct of of living in an inflationary age I want to share with you a quote from a book by uh presyani turoni who wrote the the book the economics of inflation so this is about Weimar Germany it’s about 1920s Germany I’m going to read the whole quote to avoid the effect of the monetary depreciation German Farmers continued to buy machines the quote flight from The Mark to the machine as a German author wrote was the most convenient and easiest means of defense against the depreciation of the currency but towards the end of the inflation Farmers realized that a great part of their Capital was sunk in these machines whose number was far above what would ever be needed right and so that’s how I see these things you know these are kind of the smaller bubbles with exception of housing but we actually have seen this across the board for the last 15 years the money has gotten worse and worse and so people have been trying to find surrogates substitutes for saving their money substitute piggy banks of course you know real estate is a is a big one so we’ll look at that the next chart I’m going to show you is a chart denominated in Commodities and the reason I do that is that I think the dollar is the wrong pair of glasses to put on anymore if you look at charts in dollar terms they’re long long term charts all you see is number go up like it just goes up and up and like you you it doesn’t make sense because it just the denominator is broken so we need a different way to look at markets I think Bitcoin is too volatile I think gold is confusing because the Dynamics are changing so just a basket of Commodities does the job for me because in the end you know we all need them to live we need Metals we need fuel and of course we need food so so this is real estate U.S real estate expressed in Commodities so this chart goes back to just before the 2008 crisis and so what you see is a 12 year and note this is a this is a logarithmic chart so we see a parabolic uptrend that lasted 12 years fueled by all this stimulus money and then finally in 2021 the market started to break down and so even to just go back to 2008 levels we could easily see a 70 retrace same thing happened with global stocks which by the way most of them are are consumer focused they’re the apples the Amazons that’s all consumerism so that money was pushed in there those green arrows are all the stimulus plans that we saw again were breaking down so this is the start of a really big bear Market um of course the same is the case for government bonds this is the 30-year bonds expressed in commodities and then finally banking greatly helped by all the bailouts they would have been at zero if it weren’t for these bailouts but again even in Commodities we’re also seeing finally at breakdown so the the the the point I’m trying to make through this is inflation confuses things like people do all kinds of things that feel rational and that are understandable but that don’t necessarily help them and I want to again uh quote for um about the Weimar inflation because people always think like oh yeah it just you know gradually there was more and more inflation actually just one or two years before the hyperinflation this happened quote the exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually Rose for a time and the Mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world right so it gets really confusing now we all know all these slogans of like oh Full Employment and you know there’s no recession unless we have a 20 drop in the markets those are slogans it they don’t really make the economy they’re not what’s actually happening I want to actually show you a very short clip of uh just just a regular person who’s talking about her experience of everyday life this is a video from Canada but I think it uh it speaks for for so many places in the US as well could you run the video job I start in September but even with that job it pays less than 40 Grand a year and it’s a job that requires that like education and even on that job like I still can’t do I can’t buy anything I can’t afford the rent these days like I’m I’m just I’m I’m just feeling so much Despair and I know I’m normally like really really positive but I’m just like how is everyone else and are you okay because the answer is probably no and I know I’m lucky I don’t I don’t have kids I have like good family that will support me but I just I feel like I can’t stay here but I can’t move anywhere else so people are not just despairing like this lady as many are but some people are also getting angry does anyone know who this refers to Oliver Anthony [Applause] yeah one line of its song is the dollar ain’t um I want to talk about him a little bit because I think there may be some this may be part of a bigger picture um so just to kind of set set the context a little more I want to read a few quotes from his songs and the last quote I’m going to read is actually a passage from the Bible that he quoted at the first concert that he did after his video went viral so because your dollar ain’t and it’s taxed in no end because of rich men north of Richmond so he’s saying the dollar is taxed so he’s talking about inflation he’s also saying people crying about burning coal which is the climate the climate worries but not the poor souls who’s digging it so that contrast there’s always some kind of bill to pay people just doing what the rich man say and then finally the wicked plot against the righteous and gnash their teeth at them but the Lord laughs at the wicked for he knows their day is coming so there’s that anger and like the the ready to go like ready to to somehow do what’s needed or fight or you know um and and this is not a partisan message like this is not about vote for this guy or vote for that guy and he makes that clear in this next video well you know like it was funny seeing my song in the it was fun it was funny seeing it at the presidential debate because it’s like I wrote that song about those people you know so for them to have to sit there and listen to that uh that cracks me up uh it was funny kind of seeing the response to it like that song has nothing to do with Joe Biden you know it’s a lot bigger than Joe Biden um that song is written about the people on the on that stage and a lot more too not just them but but definitely them so so what I learned where he’s from where he lives is that place called a little tiny place called Farmville Virginia I was reminded of a map that I had looked at um a few years ago this is book written by Colin Woodard called American nations and to me this is like one of the because I didn’t grow up in the US and I felt like I had to learn about this continent and how how things worked and what the cultures were like and it seems obvious that there’s not like 50 different cultures in the US like there’s less than that but there’s more than two and so he has this whole book where he proposes that there’s actually 11 distinct cultures in the U.S um and that the way he makes his argument is that first he shows were the different places were that were colonized and were the migration streams went uh and his argument is that um you know whoever sets the tone for the initial culture that is incredibly persistent because future migration streams people get either attracted or repelled by the existing culture so in a way they self-select and then also he he validates it by looking at voting records and just showing that like hey even though this is in the same state there’s a line here where people vote differently North versus South Etc so so the map um I had in mind was this one these are like the 11 Nations and uh and so he really makes the argument that it’s these ethno Regional Nations that really Define the political picture in the U.S he says since 1877 the driving force of American politics has been a clash between shifting coalitions of ethno-regional Nations one invariably headed by the Deep South The Other by Yankee them so you see Yankee them as a Northeast Deep South is of course in the South and then there’s these other nations so so what I was thinking of when I I listened to Oliver Anthony his name is Chris by the way but it’s apparently a homage to his grandfather who was a musician is that he’s sitting right on the edge of these two Nations one is greater Appalachia you see it in the in the red there above the Deep South and then to the east of that there is Tidewater and so Farmville is right on the edge of those two and I want to read you a little bit about what Colin Woodard says about those two regions and the reason I bring this up is that basically this is very you know I’m very cautiously suggesting this because I honestly I put together this presentation like between last night and this morning so this is not some like big thesis that I’ve been working on for months but um but yeah is that this Dynamic you know that has been shaping politics maybe that Dynamic could change somehow and maybe some of these other regions could have um more of a sway in in how the votes turn out so so let’s read a little bit about Tidewater which that is where the Richmond north of Richmond live right I mean that’s Washington DC and a little bit around that so Tidewater what does Colin Woodard say about Tidewater he says Tidewater was led by settlers who were the second sons of the British aristocracy whose lack of inheritance back in England brought them to the colonies they sought to recreate their more futile Society in their new Homeland with themselves at the top and indentured servants and enslaved people at the bottom they sought to create a paternalistic mannered class-based Society he says the Tidewater ethos was that your better’s new best and would take care of you as long as you stayed in your place not my words his um so moving over to apalachia which interestingly enough if you see here it’s a giant region right it’s it’s uh 60 million people live there it includes Nashville it includes Austin it includes Dallas um I don’t know I feel like I heard those towns before when people talk about Bitcoin maximalism um so let’s see what Colin Woodard has to say about this region and and what what kind of the cultural blueprint is um he says the founders of Appalachia came from the war-torn Borderlands of Northern Britain their ancestors had weathered 800 years of nearly constant Warfare some of them fighting in the armies of William Braveheart Wallace he says suspicious of aristocrats social engineers and outside authority of any kind borderlanders valued individual liberty and personal honor Above All Else and we’re happy to take up arms to defend either so I feel like I’m hearing some of the some of that energy in um Oliver Anthony’s Song and of course in the audiences where that that resonate with that and then uh last night actually I was just browsing on Twitter and I saw this uh I thought I saw this these migration Trends which I thought I’d throw it in here because interestingly enough actually uh apalachia and the Deep South The the Metro areas there are seeing a lot of inbound migration at the cost of what Colin Woodard calls Tidewater Yankee them and then the Left Coast and also the Midlands anyway so the last part of what I want to talk about is like amid this kind of ground Swell this energy this despair this anger uh what we’re seeing is that Bitcoin is entering the political realm um you know the picture on the left is of course melee who is uh the The Outsider political candidate who just um won the primaries in in Argentina and he um he was on television smashing a pinata in the shape of a central bank um he uh what what that image shows as a as um his um uh clamor he’s basically saying I’m going to take the chainsaw to the government budget I’m going to just slash all these all these parts of the government that are that are wasteful uh and um he might be the next president he’s pro-bitcoin he wants to dollarize the economy um he’s a anarchical capitalist of course here we have several political candidates several presidential candidates who are being very favorable to Bitcoin now Robert Kennedy bought Bitcoin for his sons wants to uh introduce uh I think he wants the central bank to start buying Bitcoin and then around the world we’re seeing more and more countries that are starting to get involved with Bitcoin in various ways so I feel like this is the beginning of something new and and there’s there’s another demographic element I’ll point at in a minute but in terms of where things might go it’s weird because when I was like thinking about or learning about the economy back in 2005 six seven like I was really very worried and kind of down I was really worried that we would see this scenario of Latin America played over and over and over like we would just go to very high inflation and like somewhat more stable than back to very high inflation in these like forever 10-year Cycles so that just felt like a nightmare um and so yeah I really thought like maybe Argentina is kind of like the best that’s possible or it’s like life still goes on and it’s still a good place to live despite all that monetary destruction but so now with Malay we’re just seeing this something that’s very new like there’s never been a candidate like this that’s been as popular with the youth for example like this guy’s like a rock star like just look at this video this is in the streets of of Buenos Aires [Applause] [Music] there he is [Music] [Music] [Music] so that’s the phenomenon Malay by the way I I heard the words anarcho-capitalists be pronounced on public radio a few days ago it’s really weird I’ve never heard in my life um the lady said she had to look it up in the dictionary um so something else I ran into is this uh recent survey and it’s about crypto but let’s just assume this is Bitcoin because they always mush it together but let’s just assume these numbers are about Bitcoin what they’re saying is that basically Democrats own about 13 percent of them own Bitcoin about 10 percent of Republicans own Bitcoin and then of the independence 17 are Bitcoin holders and so again those numbers like between uh between 10 and 17 like that that is really something for me because this is not at the peak of the bubble like this is a bear Market that we’re in and to see numbers like that it reminded me of Internet adoption in the early 90s and so it’s too small for you guys to probably see but what you see there is that in 1995 internet the internet was adopted by nine percent of the people and then that was The Big Year where Bill Gates came out and we had Windows 95 and I’m sure a lot of you remember everybody went to buy their first computer and hook it up and so the next year uh internet adoption jumped to 16 it was really like a a breakthrough moment like that was the moment most people agree when the internet went mainstream and so that’s how I feel about Bitcoin I think this cycle is when Bitcoin is going to go mainstream because we have that like we have what’s the the germs for popular support it’s there people are hurting because of inflation and they’re talking about it and the connection with Bitcoin hasn’t quite been made uh but I think it will in this next cycle and I think because of that it’ll be more and more also on the political agenda for better or worse you know like Satoshi didn’t want um what was it Wikileaks to start accepting Bitcoin because he was afraid Bitcoin would get too politicized too early but I’m not trying to you know like be a prophet and say what needs to happen I just this is just what I think will happen um and so that’s why I think that there’s just no fever like Bitcoin fever like I think just like we had gold rushes in the past this is going to be a Mania that’s not only fueled by the greed that we saw because that’s always there in 2021 but there’s going to be that despair element there’s going to be anxiety there’s going to be anger like all that is gonna it’s gonna get absorbed by Bitcoin is is what I believe so yeah that’s it for me I’m happy to open it up for questions and by the way I’ll be around for the rest of the day so I’m happy to talk to people so if you I’m happy to catch up and hear if people want to share things but for this this little part let’s just uh keep it at uh just questions if you wish if you would I think that’s the microphone over there um great speech appreciate it if you had to pick a country that you think would adopt Bitcoin get rid of capital gains who are you bullish on around the globe wait could you repeat that I’m so sorry which country do you think he’s gonna make a next big move in Bitcoin whether it’s adopting it legal tender getting rid of cap gains thanks yeah um it’s hard to say um which country I’m bullish on it doesn’t seem to be that there are uh political leaders right now of the caliber of bouquet that have already been elected like bukele and El Salvador seems to be a Maverick or seen as such at least um so I think it depends on elections a lot um I I it seems that most governments are just hesitant and there’s a few countries in in Latin America that are really looking at what what El Salvador has done but um but so far I don’t really have a big you know a big horse that I’m betting on of course you know like Argentina is one to watch even though it does seem like if Malay gets elected president he might still have a lot of the whatever it’s called the senate or the parliament that’s that that could vote against him um so it’s it remains to be seen how much he can actually change but I think it’s just becoming clear that the Bitcoin voters it could be a single they could become single issue voters right if you live in an inflationary environment it’s like come on like liberate my savings then what you know what what more important of an issue could you have in a in a inflationary depression so yeah if you can come closer over here the mic oh yeah for questions yeah feel free to come over come on over here we have another four minutes uh thanks to her uh insightful as always um I totally agree with you that this Oliver Anthony thing seems to be a marker of a cultural moment of kind of connecting the dots um do you think that’s 20 24 election is kind of like too soon for it to become a mainstream issue between the two major political parties um yeah that’s pretty Mission yeah yeah I it’s hard to say right because if it was like 2025 or 26 I would feel more confident to be like yeah for sure this is going to be the Bitcoin election but uh 2024 I don’t know because we could you know markets are looking like they’re gonna they’re gonna roll over like the FED is saying they’re gonna raise interest rates they won’t raise it by much I don’t think but at least they’re kind of signaling they’re not gonna load anytime soon I think they’re waiting for some kind of excuse like a market sell-off or something like that and so that means that the the like disinflation quote unquote could continue for a while um I mean I guess I’m leaning no I heard someone speculate that this uh this this coming cycle uh Trump is gonna team up with RFK and they’re gonna go independent and orange man is gonna endorse orange coin um um but that’s just some speculation in the streets of Austin um yeah but yeah I mean I mean in some ways all bets are off like this is I don’t know of any time in my life that was like this and a lot of older and wiser people that I talk to don’t know either like they don’t know the analogy so you know you I think you got to stay humble in an environment like this so we saw the woman despairing you know about her economic experience what do you feel the influence of AI and unemployment do you see unemployment like a certain are we gonna see a Tipping Point where Society will look much different yeah like the influence of AI and unemployment in general I mean I think the main thing is just that because of all this artificially low interest rates and this money printing um the whole economy has gotten skewed it’s totally skewed and there’s so many malinvestments that have happened everything is skewed towards consumption in the moment it’s it’s kind of like a travel Instagram and and I’m not I’m not casting any moral judgment on that I’m just it’s just how it is people have been have been um encouraged to to buy the latest thing because you got zero interest rate loans and everything like just just lever up you know buy your house even though you don’t have the cash or just put 10 down and do it and so people’s savings have been so incredibly undermined right they they people don’t really have any savings anymore on average and so that consumerism I think is going to have to go away like you just tighten the belt at some point like this lady she can’t afford to go to Six Flags or whatever like it’s just you know try to get fuel for the car try to get food and that’s about it pay the rent um so all that Innovation I feel like a lot of it has been like I don’t know make Amazon more efficient or make apple more efficient or customer service like this whole service economy I think that had to shrink anyway so maybe AI is gonna make that shrinkage go faster maybe but I just don’t see AI helping us dig ditches right or pull iron ore out of the ground or grow corn right I mean some of it is maybe going to make a little difference but I just don’t think it’s making a big difference in the next 10 years also to run all this AI stuff you need CPUs and that’s the bottleneck they had the bottleneck as chips and energy so you’re back to your Commodities again um so yeah I think that it’s it’s probably a bit you know the peak of overly inflated expectations probably happened already with with AI at least in the short term is what I think sorry it might cause the crash yeah I mean like at some point if things are so fragile you know if a forest is like totally dried up you normally need a little spark and there’s no knowing where it’s going to come from but you’re right something like that could also be a spark yeah I gotta wrap it up here thanks everyone Grandpa why do you have so much Bitcoin well it all started in the year 2023 when I attended a conference called bit block boom what’s bit block boom Grandpa it was a conference where people talked about Bitcoin this was way back when we used something called the US dollar for money what in wasn’t always the world’s money if it weren’t for great speakers at bit block boom like Jimmy song Adam Curry and Preston pish we’d all be living in pods and eating bugs instead I was able to avoid Fiat enslavement and secure generational wealth Legend be the legend your grandchildren deserve EX -conference out there and join the Bitcoin Revolution the only conference for True Bitcoin maximalists book your tickets today at bitlockboom.com and use the code BBB one for a special discount