House Prices Will Crash in 2026

House Prices Will Crash in 2026

We delve into the predictions of Fred Harrison, an economist renowned for accurately forecasting the 2008 and 1990 property crashes years in advance. Fred now predicts a looming house price crash in 2026, and we’ll explore his theory to help you gauge its credibility and understand how it might impact homeowners, buyers, and property investors. But before we dive in, don’t forget to like and subscribe for more valuable insights.

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Description continued:
Who is Fred Harrison?
Fred Harrison, Research Director at the London-based Land Research Trust, accurately foretold the 2008 and 1990 property crashes, showcasing his astute understanding of economic trends.

Understanding Fred’s Theory:
Fred’s forecasts are rooted in his identification of the property cycle, which spans approximately 18 years. This cycle comprises distinct phases, each influencing the trajectory of house prices.

The 18-Year Property Cycle:
We dissect the phases of this cycle, from the Recovery Phase post-recession to the Explosive Phase marked by soaring confidence and prices. Understanding these phases is crucial for informed decision-making amidst market fluctuations.

Analyzing Historical Data:
By overlaying Fred’s 18-year property cycle onto historical house price data, we observe alarming trends suggesting a potential downturn in the housing market. Insights from past cycles provide valuable perspective on current market dynamics.

Protecting Yourself:
We offer three key tips to safeguard your interests:

1. Plan for high interest rates to ensure financial resilience.
2. Aim to buy below market value or add value to your property investments.
3. Avoid panic selling by focusing on long-term price trends and staying calm amidst market volatility.

Navigating Uncertain Times:
While Fred’s predictions may evoke concern, they also present opportunities for savvy investors to thrive amidst market challenges. Understanding the nuances of the property cycle is essential for making informed decisions and capitalizing on emerging trends.

Join us as we unravel the complexities of the housing market and equip you with the knowledge needed to navigate and capitalize on market fluctuations. Don’t miss out—subscribe now for more insights into the future of real estate.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Who is Fred?
02:46 18 Year Property Cycle
07:02 18 Year Property Cycle + Today’s Data
09:52 How To Protect Yourself

this is Fred Harrison and Fred has correctly predicted the last two property crashes both the 2008 and 1990 property crashes and the craziest thing about those predictions is it’s not like he predicted them a few months before they happened he predicted they would happen years in advance and now Fred is predicting house prices will crash in 2026 in this video we’re going to discuss and explore Fred’s Theory so you can decide if you think he’s called it right or not and also talk about how you can protect yourself as a homeowner buyer or property investor and most importantly Thrive by understanding the opportunities hidden in Fred’s forecasts before we look into this please like And subscribe because it helps me out anyway who is Fred Fred is a research director of the london-based land research trust he studied economics at Oxford and in 19 97 he published a 10-year forecast specifically highlighting that a global financial crisis would be triggered when house prices peaked in 2007 which just blows my mind so I think it’s fair to say Fred’s a smart guy and someone we should all be open to the opinion of so let’s break down Fred’s Theory well he was one of the first people to identify the existence of the property cycle which is the foundation of his forecasts he researched the ukuk property Market over hundreds of years and concluded that the length of each full cycle averages out to about 18 years with each cycle divided into distinct stages that we’ll go through in the next section in a moment but before we do it’s important to recognize that you me we all need to make our own decisions about how we interpret information and that includes this whole 18-year property cycle thing because in general what history teaches us is the professionals who are watching the factual signals act very differently from the amateurs who are watching the media clickbait titles the news does not always match up to the reality of what’s happening or what’s to come back in 2006 you can find articles about how to get the best rates on 110% mortgages which in retrospect just seems mad and so many amateurs would have looked at those articles got those mortgages and ended up in a lot of trouble come the crash I get the sense the fact that you’re watching this means you are more the professional than the amateur the wolf rather than the Sheep if so why haven’t you liked this video yet but let’s look at the 18-year property cycle in more detail first we’re going to talk about what these phases are and then overlay it to house price data up until now for you to see if you think it matches up or not so to start when you’ve got this recovery phase this is the stage after a recession where house prices have bottomed out at the end of the recession and prices have fallen far enough to start tempting the bravest investors and buyers back into the market usually investors are attracted back by the higher rental yields on offer as a result of prices falling while rents have stayed Prett much the same although house prices have fallen in the past rents historically don’t so if you’re renting thinking great I’ll I’ll buy at this stage even though brave enough to take advantage of the lower prices and buy tend to find it more difficult at this stage to get mortgages usually because Banks tighten their lending criteria due to the perceived increased risk to lending you got to remember on the back of house prices dropping it’s not just homeowners that struggle Banks do too so they’re naturally really cautious especially during the beginnings of the recovery phase at that stage no one really knows if prices have hit rock bottom yet and the media is usually really negative unsurprisingly constantly highlighting the negatives of prices dropping because of this it’s usually at this stage you have a complete absence of amateur investors or buyers but but in reality the best time to buy is at this stage which is why you get the more experienced contrary investors the smart money in other words that start their process to buying up more and more property they take advantage of the absence of competition and prices being so low as the recovery phrase develops you then get more and more buyers entering the market as more and more begin to realize the upro trajectory of prices and more optimism begins to return to the market however there has historically always been a slight midcycle dip as prices stabilize or even drop slightly this might be because early investors finish investing or decide to sell in cash in profits often this midcycle dip gets confused with the end of a recovery and the beginning of a recessionary period in the property Market typically period lasts one to two years on average before prices start to rise again you then hit the explosive phase this is where confidence in the market increases dramatically at this point banks are usually over the shock of the recession and begin relaxing their lending criteria and are willing to start lending more and more money that starts supplying more and more money into the property market and it then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy the more money that’s injected into the property Market the higher prices rise at this stage all the news headlines talk about house prices are increasing quicker than wage growth and people start rushing to get on the housing ladder or move up the ladder as the fear of being out priced in the future starts to set in this then pushes prices up even further and further because there is so much optimism Banks keep lending you get the odd commentator like me and others warning of the unsustainability of all this but of course people ignore it comforted by the fact that house prices always go up don’t they which although true over a decade isn’t always true year to year final couple of years of the explosive phase is what Fred Harrison Brands as the winners curse phase why is it a curse to be a winner because you’ve essentially bought a property at the highest point before house prices start to drop you’ve essentially bought at the worst Point possible if we overlay this 18-year property cycle to actual Property Data up until now it is quite alarming you can see clear as day how house prices have worked their way through the recovery phases after the 2007 2008 financial crash you can see house prices keep Rising despite the brexit referendum and all the things attached remember at this point everyone was forecasting house prices to drop and of course they didn’t house prices seem to have a mind of their own at this stage with the midcycle dip the year heading towards covid and since 20120 house prices have exploded until you reach the close of 2022 if we look at the price data Beyond 2022 it is at this stage we start to see house prices begin to Flatline a bit and this can be more clearly seen if we look at not average house prices but the percentage change in house prices for the same time periods now I’m not in the habit of fearmongering but does look like house prices are starting to drop and this is my personal prediction of what I think is going to happen either we’re going to look back at this and I’m going to have read this all correct all right or I’m going to be wrong but my opinion is in reality it looks like we’re heading to house prices being uncertain this year and next as everyone holds onto this hope of interest rates dropping you can see the left red circle looks awfully similar to the red circle and you can see what follows the left red circle the crash it may be the case interest rates drop slightly end of this year or next but I think in reality as people realize higher interest rates here to stay we’re going to start to see a shallow correction in house prices end of next year exactly when Fred expected amazingly I don’t think it’s going to be as drastic as the last crash I think at most prices might slide 5% then begin to slide up again it will be a slow dropping of house prices and a slow rising of them on the back end look I I could be wrong with this this is just how I choose to interpret the data rather than just follow the headlines in my last video a couple of weeks ago I go into detail over default rates or mortgages and current repossession rates and it is quite clear default rates have significantly increased over 2023 but because of the lag between falling behind on payments and being repossessed is about 12 to 18 months we’ve not quite felt the effects of it yet on repossession rates as you can see repossession rates although not increasing significantly are increasing and if you look back at the default rates dramatically increasing what do you think is going to start happening here to repossession rates I think they’re going to keep going up and dramatically anyway the point of this video isn’t to fearer it’s also to help you navigate and work the situation to your advantage so how can you protect yourself I have three core tips I follow one you need to always run your life on the expectation of high interest rates I model everything around 6% interest rates I have done for years you want to know if interest rates stay high or get higher you can still afford to live in your home and your property Investments are still profitable two I always aim to buy below market value or buy to add value the bottom bot line is if you’re buying something 5 to 10% below value or you’re adding 5 to 10% of value by refering the property you could buy at the height of the market and not live to regret it if you don’t know how to buy low my business personally sources between 100 to 200 properties for investors every month check out the description below to see more and finally three Don’t Panic sell if you follow points one and two you should never have to sell at the worst time time but just because you don’t have to sell doesn’t mean you won’t out of panic sell stay calm and focus on longterm price trends if we go back to the 18-year property cycle notice how the end of the recession phase on the right is still higher than the recovery phase on the far left the point here is house prices dropping does not mean house prices drop over the longer term they go up the danger is you don’t want to be caught out by buying High than having to sell low so see you up here in the next video