While the results from elections across England & Wales are still rolling in – the signs are pointing to a disastrous outcome for the Conservative Party. So Nish & Coco have jumped on for this special bonus episode to pop the champagne – asking exactly what it means ahead of the General Election – whenever that will eventually be called!
Liz Bates from Sky News joins Nish and Coco to explain why the historic result of the byelection in Blackpool is so seismic. They also discuss whether results for Reform UK will scare the Tories into more extreme right-wing rhetoric, whether Boris Johnson forgetting his ID was a publicity stunt and whether Keir Starmer is not a good leader, but a lucky one.
We also throw ahead to the general election – if there was a dreaded hung parliament – would that work at all? And how might the Tories be trying to claw their way back into favour before they finally allow the UK to vote on their next government?
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Guest:
Liz Bates, Sky News
CHAPTERS:
0:00 Pre-titles
3:09 Election Analysis with Liz Bates
5:50 Blackpool byelection
14:38 Conservative Party Reaction
17:59 Is Keir Starmer a lucky leader?
28:37 Boris Johnson publicity stunt?
30:02 General Election Analysis
Video credits:
BBC Newcast
BBC News
Sky News
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hi this is podsafe the UK I’m Nish Kamar and I’m Coco card and in this special bonus episode we’re breaking out the champagne the local election results are in and it’s a nightmare morning for rishy sunak we’ll be joined by friend of the show Liz Bates to learn exactly how much of a celebration this [Music] is hi Nish how are you feeling bright and early on this Friday you ready to talk election results yes this is earlier than I’m accustomed to being awake frankly which is quite a damning indictment on my general life because it’s 11:30 in the morning I uh I heard on the radio that the U mayoral elections for London which is where we both are won’t be until tomorrow so those are the sort of deadlines I think you and I could ordinarily work with yeah it’s uh but it’s always an exciting the morning after voting day is always exciting I I went down there with my passport to cast my votes MH felt really strange I I don’t know whether I’m reading too much into this but the people running the polling station did look semi- apologetic when they asked for the photo ID there there was a look of slight sadness in their eyes I seem to always whenever I’m in there I always have this uh Panic experience when I get to the booth even though I know exactly who I’m going to vote for I always have a moment when I’m there in the quiet of the booth like oh God oh God I don’t know what to do I don’t know what to do I really yeah and then as I came out of the booth um yesterday I remember just walking along and one of the people that work there was like um miss you know it’s up to you but I would just say it might be good for you to fold your paper because at the moment everyone can see what you’re doing uh and where you’re going yes well you know try to sty it out like I’m proud to vote for sad but really I’m like I don’t know what I’m doing I have no idea what’s happening my my main concern is always that I uh don’t accidentally vote for one of the racist parties like there’s all there’s always and it’s always some variation of the British e it was the British national for years now it’s like the British Freedom foundation and you’re always like just don’t whatever you do don’t accidentally vote for the racist party you should be careful because you know one day it’s going to be like Manchester United fans and then you’ll think oh that’s me but little did you know who it is really um but it’s been a disastrous result for the conservatives there will be results pouring in over the rest of the day and across the weekend but where we’re sitting right now recording this on a Friday morning at 11:30 it’s clear that it’s been a bad night for the conservatives so Rishi sunk will certainly be quaking in his boots I I like to imagine I just I just like to think what what are you doing right now I’ll tell you what he’s doing he’s getting his CV bang up to date he is making sure that his CV is bang up to date so that he can send it out to all the various tech companies in Silicon Valley that he’ll be applying to a job for he’s like working on his link right now he’s sharing up his link tin do you know what I mean he’s just there being like like I’ve suffered a bad time at election here’s what it’s taught me about B2B marketing like that’s it’s going to be I was prime minister of the United Kingdom don’t Google it but here to discuss the results with us is Liz Bates political correspondent at Sky News welcome Liz well thank you so much for having me I’m still glowing um after Nish described me as friend of the show because I think of myself as fan of the show so that’s a huge upgrade in my mind but I’m being really cool about it so that’s fine Liz if anyone’s a friend of this show it’s you we have to wheel you out to explain things just anytime something happens we’re like well we better get Liz on because uh she knows things yeah and I I literally do nothing in between coming on the show so it is very much open The Little Door wheel Liz out always available I don’t think I don’t think you can call raising your child doing nothing well it depends how you do it so Liz lay it on me exactly how bad is this for the conservatives I will lay it on you Coco um it’s it’s pretty bad it it’s at this point it’s not a surprise it’s it’s what we’ve been expecting uh they had a really bad time at the local elections last year they’ve been on a downwood trajectory under Rishi sunak uh he had a bit of a bounce when he came in but it looks like they’re heading to a complete wipe out in the general election the interesting thing for all of us working in politics and political journalism is how how bad it’s going to be and that’s what everybody’s looking at these uh local election results for trying to dissect them um looking at various different bits of the country and seeing what new or or interesting Dynamics are emerging to try and figure out exactly what this what we’re expecting is a labor government what will this labor government look like where will they gain seats and where might they struggle to hold on to their previous vote and what so is labor on for a landslide I suppose is the question and the results so far I mean we’re comparing them to a very high Watermark last time round because these local elections are cyclical so we’re comparing them to 2021 but when you think about back in 2021 you know Boris Johnson there was a heart a byelection in Harley poool Boris Johnson took Harley pool in that byelection we couldn’t be in a more different place labor have regained the Harley poool Council um this morning so I think we’re still early days about a third of the results um have come in and it’ll be the next couple of days that we’ll be looking at but it’s in terms of the the polls are absolutely disastrous for the conservative party at the moment and the polls are reflected uh in these results so as things stand as we record the conservatives have lost three councils and4 counselors labor have gained three councils and picked up 54 counselors but the kind of standout result so far is the Blackpool South by elction this is a huge seat pickup for labor it’s a 26% swing um I mean how big is this Liz it’s huge absolutely huge I mean when you talk about the the byelections that we this is a trend in byelections this is not a oneoff so we’ve seen I think it’s five byelections in the last year that have been over a 20 percentage Point swing from the conservatives to labor I mean that looks like an absolute collapse in the labor vote when you look at this um seat black pool South this is a a representative of the wall so that would give you a sense that that area um that type of seat is going to go back to the labor party but it couldn’t be a worst result for the conservatives and it’s not midterm Blues because we’re nowhere near midterm anymore we are like Galloping uh towards the general election so it’s it is a it’s a sign that the labor party is on uh for a big majority it’s a sign that the the conservative vote has completely collapsed and the important thing to remember within all the nor around the G around the local elections and the mayoral elections and all of that that one byelection and the byelections that have come before that they are the best indicators of what the general election uh is going to look like because local elections lots of local issues the Mayors up and down the country they have a personal vote and I’m sure we’ll come on to talking about that but the byelection is a terrible terrible result and the the Tories will want to move on from that really quickly and start talking about other little results all over the country some of which are bad for labor some of which show the conservative vote holding up but you know make make no bones about it Blackpool is the worst and the most indicative of what’s going to happen within the next year when it comes to a general election but in this same byelection the Tories only just beat reform into third place I think there was it was only like 100 or 120 or something it was a small number between them following on from what you said about this being a great indicator does that give you an indicator about reform as well yeah I mean it’s a absolute shocker uh for the conservatives it’s uh and reform reform’s really interesting because you see that vote going up in the polls and they they don’t have a huge uh National profile they don’t have that person in Nigel farage anymore I mean Richard Ty just doesn’t have anywhere near the type of platform that he had but that reform vote is still there I think that reform vote the sense that I get is it’s that kind of brexit vote Boris Johnson vote disenfranchised um ex-labor voters quite a lot of them all kind of smushed together and you know ex kind of ukit Voters and maybe a bit of BMP and edl you know throw them all in together um it’s that uh and that vote seems to be creeping up and creeping up and that it it seems you know I’m getting you get the sense that there are lots of conservative a big chunk of conservative voters that are just heading straight towards reform because they just feel like they cannot vote for the conservative party that in the general election will just help the labor party it will just eat that conservative vote and help labor in quite a few seats does that mean and I’m sort of almost afraid to ask this question because I think I know what the answer is does that mean that sunak is going to attack further to the right in his rhetoric and possible policy announcements probably I mean it’s so difficult to decide I feel like he doesn’t know what he’s doing week to week but certainly he’s getting pressure from within the conservative party they’ve all got this idea that they keep sort of saying to each other they want they want to find a kind of right-wing divisive single issue that they can use that they think can divide the country in the way that that brexit did and that will kind of deliver for them and you know one of the things is uh on immigration Rwanda the European Court of Human Rights all of that stuff they think can we just get you know can we get this one wedge issue um and keep pushing and pushing and pushing at it but I I just think it’s I think it’s too late it’s too late for that people have St listening to them um but I I I think you’re right Nish I think there’s always the the pressure on Rishi sunak is pushing him to the right so in our episode yesterday we had a really forensic chat with the journalist Rebecca Pierre about Britain’s care system she grew up in Blackpool and spoke extensively about the struggles of poverty that people face there one of the statistics that really chilled me and has stayed with me is that one in 52 kids in Blackpool are in care so you know quite there’s a lot of poverty there and so I’m I’m just keep thinking to myself you know when we quantify uh how well we’re feeling about the world really it’s going to come down to economic narratives right the the Rwanda stuff it’s just not going to capture people and if it’s true that the economic narrative is the important one have the Tories lost total control of it yeah I mean I I think cost of living is uh right up there in terms of what people are voting on and I think just speaking just speaking to people generally it has taken such a toll um on so many people’s lives that that is the thing that they will be thinking about um when they vote in the general election blackpool’s a really uh you know interesting area because it’s one of those places and you’re right to highlight it there’s so many uh issues there and one of the things that happens is uh you know things like Care Homes um children’s homes things like that are tend to be based there because they have this really interesting problem up in Blackpool which is they’ve got loads of housing you know there’s no there’s no lack of housing um so but it’s all very cheap and there are no jobs there and there has been I remember speaking to an MP up there there’s there’s been a lot of investment over the years there in infrastructure but he said to me there is no investment here in people and I think there are so many areas across the country where that is replicated you know money has poured in uh to some of these areas but it hasn’t been targeted in the right place and I think people have finally uh starting to feel that whenever you speak to voters they say something has to change and I think that’s where a lot of people are at mentally they don’t love the labor party they don’t love K sta there are lots of other issues that people are talking about around the election including immigration but I think in the end it will be the cost of living crisis um that that pushes people to decide where they’re going to vote just because it has has hit so many people so acutely you know before I came on to this uh recording I was listening to quasi quaring give an interview and he was saying everyone keeps blaming me for the crash in the economy it wasn’t me you know things wrong you know went a little bit too fast but fundamentally we were trying to change growth and that is the problem do you think those kind of conversations around growth is something that like the average voter would be interested in or or actually it’s it’s just about like you know the cost of your shopping the cost of petrol that sort of thing yeah of course I mean I I think yeah theoretical conversations about growth just don’t even touch the sides of course it’s like the dayto day how much things cost I mean you you look at people like quazi Quang and Liz trust in her latest you know trotting her little uh book around that hardly sold any copies and in some ways you know these people inspire me because I I I’m full of like anxiety and self-doubt and I always think God am I am I good enough at my job and am I doing well enough in life am I good enough mother and then I look at them and I’m like well they don’t give a [ __ ] they don’t blame themselves for anything they like they both got the their dream jobs and made the biggest mess of it possible in a way that was so humiliating and afterwards instead of like slinking off and being like wow that was embarrassing they’re like well I was wronged and I should probably write a book about how uh everyone was against me but in the end you know I’m I got it all right it was just that everyone else is wrong you know that used to be like a girl boss kind of early internet feminism slogan it was something like you know when you go into a conversation for a pay rise think think of yourself like a man have the confidence of a man it’s like I see that but I raise you conservative Chancellor let’s try let’s try that level of confidence they both read that book lean in and just like absorbed it they’re leaning way too far in that’s too far in Lean Back Lean Back someone needs someone needs to write a book called Lean Back Liz trust and GUI F Richard Holden is the conservative party chair um acknowledged that these were not a great set of results which feels like an understatement um here he is speaking to Sky News as Sam coat are you confident that W be a challenge from parliamentary colleagues look I think if parliamentary colleagues need to look at this and see actually these result you know and we also need to see wait through the weekend as they’ll be seeing their seats going at a general elction I don’t think I don’t think these results uh show that I think what these results are is typical for a government in midterm coming off a very high level of election results like we saw saw in 2021 as you’ve already observed Liz very very really stretching the definition of mid to Breaking Point to describe this as a midterm as we enter uh the final year of the cycle of the parliament is there a chance that they try and remove Richi sunak is Penny Moran going to be sharpening her ceremonial sword and getting her stand up and fight slogan down to the prins as quickly as possible I mean I would love to hear that stand up and fight speech again it was a great speech I wonder if she I always wonder if she wrote it down did she just write down stand up and fight 17 times and then she was like you know what this is this is good [ __ ] this is going to get me the leadership um you know they’re all a bit fractured in terms of actually challenging V and I think even the most mutinous of the Tor MPS are just a bit exhausted and they think it would make them look a bit mad to try and get rid of him they’re just not organized enough they don’t have a single figure that they can kind of gather around I think what’s actually going on is that there’s they’re maneuvering waiting for after the general election trying to figure out who’s going to take over from Rishi that’s the real fight that’s going on but you know when you said uh you know Rish suak uh sharpening up his CV and uh you know getting getting into LinkedIn that’s that is actually what a lot of Tori MPS are doing they are looking for jobs even the ones that haven’t said they’re they’re standing down are actively looking for jobs they’re preparing ing for damage [Music] control um Liz I want to move on to labor but before we do that um let’s talk about the liberal Democrats pretty good results for them uh they’ve held on to all the councils that they were defending they’ve picked up a few extra Council seats along the way what’s the story that they’re going to be trying to tell this morning for their party looking forward you know just not interested in them yeah I think they’re they’re doing all right you know they’re just going to they’ll pick up a bit here and there from you know I just I actually haven’t looked in any detail at their results uh but they seem pretty happy they’re doing all right they’re picking things up here and there in the Tory heartlands they actually look like they’re doing well in some of the kind of Labor areas as well um they’re slightly rehabilitated they’ve not done that well the last few times round they’re picking up votes uh certainly in the Tory heartlands they’re doing reasonably well in the local elections the role that they will play in the general election is uh they will take some Tory seats that will help the labor party out you know um so yeah I think in terms of the polling they’re kind of on that the the results today suggest um that they’re kind of on a reasonably good trajectory although you know there are other areas where reform are picking up votes the greens are picking up votes um so you know certainly the greens I think are eating into a bit of the liberal Democrat vote let’s talk about Labor and Kissa um and I don’t know whether it’s clear it’s obviously too soon to tell whether Kor is a good leader or not but he is definitely a lucky leader and I wonder if that’s a big part of being a good leader anyway but here is a clip of Sir John Curtis speaking to the BBC’s Laura cburg labor are where that are are where they are not at least primarily because of the way in which saki stama has repositioned his party but primarily because of the mistakes made by their opponents and labor yes have done enough for voters to go to them when they’re dissatisfied with the conservatives basically say well you couldn’t possibly do any worse than the current law but the idea is labor keep on saying secure star would change the party and that’s why we’re 20 points in the ahead in the opinion po that just doesn’t fit the timeline at all what’s your response to that Liz I I think yes and no to that people call him a lucky General he could not be luckier I mean to be honest the conservatives have collapsed uh in England and uh the S&P have collapsed in Scotland everything uh seems to have kind of shifted in his favor I realized the other day his football team might win the league in the same year that he becomes prime minister like does it get any look there’s nothing that he see it seems like he can’t achieve um at the moment he has been incredibly lucky I think you know so John Curtis is like all bow down to S John Curtis everything he says um is basically right but I think you cannot underestimate how how difficult it is um in the UK to to detoxify the labor party to the extent that you can get a majority of Voters to think H all right we’ll give it a go this is not a naturally labor voting country when you look back at history so it takes good leadership to get into that position and it also takes lots of things to fall into place and I think Karma has certainly yeah he’s been he has been lucky but I think you C you can’t take away from the fact that he has got voters to vote labor and that is a very very hard thing to do well as you say you know you can’t take it all for granted and actually it’s not been all sunshine and roses for labor this morning they lost their majority in the oldum council it’s an electorate with a large Muslim population and commenters have speculated that it may have been Labor’s response to the situation in Gaza I know that alm’s been difficult for the labor party even in more recent years um but here’s Pat mcfaden Labor’s ntion sorry but here’s Pat mcfaden Labour’s national campaign coordinator speaking to Sky News about it this morning I think it is a factor in some parts of the country I think there’s no point in denying that and I understand why people feel strongly about this thousands of innocent people have been killed people want it to stop they want H to do something about it h and if there’s a case or parts of the country where we’ve lost support on that issue uh then we will work hard uh to regain it um but it is a factor there’s no point in me denying that so Liz do you think this issue is going to be it’s going to be a for in the side of Labor going into the general election and to what extent do you think this might actually change their position on the conflict well it is and it isn’t the one of the things about um so if you look at the type of seats where this could hurt the labor party they have huge majorities huge majorities so they’re not going to worry too much especially because given the timeline look George Galloway in Rochdale George Galloway is an expert campaigner he really knows how to Galvanize a vote this kind of anti- Labor because of their stance on Gaza um uh voter base which are predominantly Muslim voters in um large Muslim communities they they are going to find it difficult to know where to go in the general election so there will be some people that defect from labor that stand as Independence uh you know some some voters will decide to go go for the green party there might be areas where the lib Dems capitalize on it the Workers Party under George Galloway might stand some candidates I think it will fracture so I don’t think the concern I don’t think labor will worry about it too much because of the first pass theost system that we have uh in this country it would be difficult for it to really shift the dial in terms of the general election actually and actually take seats from the labor party but that doesn’t mean in my view that they shouldn’t worry about it because these are voters that have been very loyal to the labor party they have supported the labor party and they feel deeply hurt and let down by what has happened because they feel like what is this this party some of them have you know gone knocking on doors have been counselors have you know dedicated their time and their their lives and believed in this party as a Force for good in this country and the world and they feel totally let down and they feel that the party at the beginning of the conflict and and still now didn’t listen to did didn’t listen to them at all or engage with them or get where they were coming from and I think that’s at the heart of the problem for me it’s not it’s not really the position that they took but it became so clear that they were not listening at all to their voters to their Muslim MPS and to the the pain that they were going through that wasn’t reflected at all in what the leadership was saying and I think you still see that actually and you can I I know exactly what they’ll be thinking now they’ll be thinking we’ve got to focus on the general election we’ve got to think about what we’re going to do in government they’re not going to think oh we need to we need to reach out to these communities because they feel let down by us and that and it will Fester it will just fester and fester and we’ve seen it happen before they lost touch with workingclass communities across the North and across the Midlands and it doesn’t always immediately hurt you but it will hurt you in the future because eventually they’ll just leave you the unflushable turd in British politics is toilet ball uh Boris Johnson the greased piglet squealed in favor of his favorite Tory mayor Ben hin uh in the teas Valley look at the progress that Ben hin has made since he has been there reopening tside airport which his labor opponent was going to close and turn into a housing estate creating the UK’s biggest freep port in tieside the home of the green jobs green industries of the future he’s brought steel making back to teeside the treasury to Darlington he’s investing in roads and rail he’s got a fantastic Vision but above all he is a guy who does what he says he’s going to do and in report of Andy Street in the West Midlands Johnson wrote forget about Westminster this election is about the next four years in the West Midlands and who you want in charge if it were my vote I’d want the person with a record of getting stuff done and that’s Andy street now we’re still waiting for the result of the West Midlands mayal election but we know now that Ben hen has won in the teas Valley but Liz is this a case of rishy sunak essentially snatching defeat from the jaws of Victory because on paper you think well you know that’s a big high profile mer that they’ve retained bucking the trend of the conservative party losing seats but at the same time is it pretty damning that howchin is one having wheeled out Boris Johnson and the messaging on top of it already being bad that it’s Johnson the messaging is very much hyperfocused on local issues and doesn’t seem to really engage with the conservatives as a as a national party is this bad news even though it’s good news yeah yeah yeah exactly right um Rishi sudak of course will try try to try to cling on to this try to attach himself to this win but Ben Howen has a massive personal vote um in the teas Valley and I know because I’ve been in covered that election before and people really like it I’ve spoken to people who voted for him that didn’t even know that he was a conservative so he has a big personal vote there there’s no question that the Prime Minister will go up and you know try to pretend that this is a win for the conservative party I mean the images I think it it kind of reminds me of you know when you try and sort of we try to hug someone that just really doesn’t want to be hugged and they’re like oh get from me that’s kind of what it’s going to be like um it’s interesting I’ve just had a look at the result it looks like a swing still uh of 16% to the labor party so that’s a big swing that’s the thing that’s more interesting because this they he had a huge huge vote last time around it was 73% down to now 53% and the labor vote has increased from 27 to 41 so big big swing there that’s the thing uh that is more interesting and as you say Ben hin spent um a lot of his time as Andy Street did has done in the west mland as well just trying to separate themselves as much as they possibly could from Westminster politics both of them uh very successfully so it doesn’t reflect well for Rishi sunet but look they’ve got to take the winds where they can get them also we should not that howchin in the teas Valley reform didn’t actually stand a candidate so once again there’s another factor that needs to be considered in terms of there wasn’t that eat into the Tory vote from the FR party either do you think there would have been any advantage for them in becoming Independents like what why didn’t they I mean some of the campaign literature they they literally didn’t it wasn’t even blue like they they were sort of so actively trying to distance themselves would it have been a smarter move for them to run as Independence well I mean I I think they I think to be honest either of either of them could have run as Independents but why would you want to um then then you don’t have all the uh party machinery and the cash behind you I mean one of the one of the interesting things not I mean this is interesting for me but please stop me if it’s too boring you know the conservatives have really taken local government and and Devolution in this country and politicized it so it they’ve they’ve taken a lot of money and resources away from local councils and handed them to people like conservative Mayors in the West Midlands and uh the teas Val and it’s given them this kind of political hold and they have poured cash into these areas and that has and then they’ve kind of said like look at our Mayors you know doing all this amazing work well that was money that would have usually gone to the local councils and then around them there are all these like struggling labor councils that have got no money and then all the conservative MPS in those areas to say God look at these councils they’re rubbish but look at this Tory mayor he’s doing really well and it’s like well he’s the one with the government checkbook so that’s the kind of dynamic um that has emerged and uh yeah they spent the money they’ve got the profile and that might mean that they hang on but it’s not you know the idea that that is in any way a boost for Rishi sunak it it just [Music] isn’t well uh as we’ve had the former prime minister Boris Johnson already in this episode I feel like it’s only okay to mention that he was out making a fool of himself yesterday did we all see it so apparently he was turned away from his polling station in Oxford share after reportedly forgetting to bring his ID just want to say that the new rules were crying that all voters have ID were introduced by him by his government um what what are we thinking publicity stunt I personally think if I had to put money on it I I reckon I would go that he did it on purpose just to get a little bit of attention I mean I don’t know the guy but the his his character to me comes off like he really reminds me of you do you remember those like kids in your class at school that they they had a kind of weird personality which was they just wanted attention at any price so they were like I’ll eat this piece of dog poo or like I’ll I’ll set fire to my socks just literally for because they’re just like I’ll do anything for attention um and I think that is in my mind that is what Boris Johnson’s kind of kind of main driver is yeah I mean I’m always surprised when people say this incident would have been embarrassing for him because I don’t know what basis or what evidence people have that he has the capacity for shame it seems like a very strange thing to be like oh he’s why why would he be embarrassed by this and not everything he’s done in his entire [ __ ] life so looking forward to the general election Labour’s tone has been quite modest in some places and at a r in Blackpool South where they had as we said this huge byelection Victory uh Deputy leader Angela Raina introduced K stor as hopefully the next prime minister of this country to rockus cheering and then here is starma speaking to the BBC’s Helen cat shortly afterwards why so cautious when you’ve had such a big win this we want a general elction we want to win that general election we want to take our country forward and I thank every single person who voted labor yesterday why are labor staying so humble Liz they really are trying to avoid a tone of triumphalism here I I think it’s because well there’s a couple of things you know until they’ve got it over the line it still feels like you know you could grasp defeat from the jaws of Victory I think that’s possible we’ve seen it happen uh before and there’s been a lot of discussion around whether this is uh 92 and John Major just hangs on or if it’s going to be the type of 97 Landslide I think all the all all the signs point to uh it you know being a labor government and potentially them getting quite a good result but I think they they really don’t want to um preempt that and that that love for Kia starma I mean there is no love for K sta but it’s it’s still a little bit soft that labor vote because it is dis disenfranchised um conservative voters primarily but also you know in Scotland people turning away from the SNP nobody that I’ve I’ve spoken to is like I just think K Arma is so wonderful that’s why I’ve joined so there’s still that kind of sense that people could could could turn on him but the other thing is they really really don’t want to give that impression that they’re already in the door that they’re already measuring up the curtains because as soon as you become the establishment people want to kick you and so you don’t want to get to that position where in people’s minds you’re already the government which is I think some you see some of that happening you know when you look at the Olden vote people are already thinking well you know sld the labor party because they you know they they they already feel like the establishment party that deserve a kicking and you really don’t want to get into that position because then everything could go wrong for them what’s this done uh in your view to the timing of the election because obviously there were so many rumors about him possibly calling it this week does has this given you any further indication of when the election might be no and look I I I’m a political uh obsessive so I love talking about when the general election is going to be but you know when you hear rumors Rumors in Westminster are literally labor people talking to each other then talking to journalists then someone tweets about it then someone tells the other person about that tweet rishy sunak will tell maybe three people when he’s going to call the general election and it will not leak like we just won’t know my sense is that but you can obviously you can assess you know what the what the kind of Shifting Dynamics are and what the strategy might be in number 10 based on what’s just happened why would you call a general election now I mean you would just be going into a complete [ __ ] storm so my sense is that they’ll push it they’ll push it long they’ve convinced themselves I think that if the economy gets a little bit better that they can they can use that as a platform for their general election campaigning I think that shows how how out of touch they are uh with normal people because just you know a slight change in inflation rates or mortgage rates is not going to make a difference people have been going going through a terrible time financially for the past you know two three five years um but I think they’ve convinced themselves of that they want to get these Rwanda flights off they’ll want to have a party conference where he gives a big speech then they’ll want to have a budget where they cut taxes and then they’ll say you know don’t go backwards uh with labor they just think let’s just hold on let’s just hold on as long as we can maybe something will turn up I think there’s not enough momentum in the conservative party to overthrow him I just don’t think they’ve got the will to do it I think they’re just exhausted as as we all are I just want to mention that you know everyone was talking about Penny Morant being a possible replacement but did everybody see that she said she won’t be installed like a boiler did everybody see that I love that so much not least because I’m currently looking at getting a new boiler and it’s expensive stuff so actually I think it’s a luxury item these days Penny I think this the worst things to call yourself um so we’ve already heard from him earlier in this episode but Sir John Curtis also said this morning that it’s almost certain the Tories are done okay but you know there could be a hung Parliament what do you think of that Liz and for clarity if it was a hung Parliament what kind of iteration what combination are we looking for uh I mean I think there’s definitely the possibility that it could be a hung Parliament um that would that would be I think a a complete nightmare I mean I think that would just be so difficult for the labor party they are the thing that people get about the labor party is that it is actually quite fractured internally and there are still a lot of left leaning MPS there’s a lot a lot of um uh anger about the way the party has positioned itself on Gaza there’s anger about watering down uh things around workers rights um there’s still there’s still loads of MPS that came in under Jeremy Corbin that are just pissed off that K starma made them loads of promises and kind of pretended that he was going to be a sensibly dressed version of Jeremy Corbin and it turned out uh that he’s probably closer or certainly seems at the moment like he’s moving closer to kind of Tony Blair territory like there’s there’s there’s annoyance uh about that and I think if if we were in a hung Parliament situation where labor didn’t have majority and they found it difficult to govern then uh you know it would be difficult for them to get anything through Parliament and we get into one of those situations where we’re constantly obsessing about parliamentary votes is there going to be a big Rebellion on this is there going to be a big Rebellion on that and the whips would be you know always trying to buy off off you know these this group of rebels of you know five to 20 people that constantly need plating and we would just be in a scenario of Labor Psycho Drama rather than conservative Psycho Drama I don’t think it would even last the parliament so it would be it would be a terrible thing I think for the future of the country if that happened it’s never a good thing under our system um to to get into that kind of situation because then it becomes just about party management rather than have you can’t have any long-term plans for the country because you just can’t get them through Parliament but who would be the party that would you know support them do you think it was is likely to be the the greens who are the king maker or is it going to be the S SMP or is who do you think it will be well it be the lib Dems so it would end you’d end up with a kind of Labor libdem Coalition um because lid certainly aren’t going to uh get into bed with with the toys well not after last time not after last time I think I actually have broken out in a like hives At The Mention Of The Words liberal Democrat and Coalition you know in one of our very first episodes Nish we talked about a lib lab Coalition didn’t we and our very sort of hot political take and by we I mean me was I was like well it has a vaginal air and I think that’s what is needed in politics so perhaps that’s a good closing Parting Shot the Libya labia Coalition yeah just a a whole bunch of [ __ ] all together [Laughter] um so look just final thoughts on this Liz obviously so far good night for labor bad night for the conservative party what what do you see in the kind of between now and the general election what sort of attempts do you see the Tory party making to kind of win back the public support before a general campaign it will be Rishi sunak going through his list of um his five priorities and say we’ve done this we’ve done that we’ve done the other there’ll be a lot of uh you know trying to pretend that the Rwanda policy is a huge success even though it’s um actually wildly expensive the most expensive immigration policy that could you could have ever imagined it’s you know incredibly inefficient um so there will be a lot made of that they are absolutely pinning their hopes I think on um the idea that the economy will shift uh in a better Direction they’ll be able to uh campaign on that and they will also hope that this issue and this is how pathetic Party politics is sometimes but they will hope that Gaza continues to divide the labor party to the point where they actually get themselves into a bit of a mess on it um you know I mean there there are there will genuinely be people in the conservative party that hope that conflict doesn’t get resolved so that it causes problems for the labor party genuinely that’s how people think in Westminster some people I mean that’s just you know why we need to get to a a better place in British politics I think so things are going to get worse before they get better they might just get worse worse and worse and worse and worse forever so Liz just in conclusion is there any hope left for the conservative party no that’s perfect just kidding just kidding uh no um uh yeah I think there’s there’s always look when you look at these local elections basically what we’ve been seeing in the polls is reflected in the results that we’re seeing already if you look at the swings and especially in the byelections and you know look at black pool South but the ones that have come before that the labor party are on to form the next government no question and if we even get to the point of a hung Parliament like you know the liberal Democrats will be will be forming a government with the labor party you know no one’s going to touch the conservative party at that point so I think it it seems like there is no way back from them things can change very quickly in politics but you know at this point I think they’re they all need to be they all need to be sorting out their well uh thank you so much for joining us Liz and we hope to catch you on the couch soon thanks Liz and thanks for listening everybody uh we’ll be back as normal next Thursday you can get in touch with us by emailing psuk reduced listening. co.uk we also love to hear your voices so if you’re feeling brave send us a voice note on WhatsApp our number is 07494795709 4 don’t forget to follow @ pod saave theuk on Instagram and Twitter you can also find us on YouTube for access to full episodes and other exclusive content you can drop us a review too if you like but as you know only five stars a conversation for a PO safe the UK is a reduced listening production for crooked media thanks to senior producer James Tindale and digital producer Alex Bishop the executive producers are anishka Sharma Dan Jackson and meline heringer with additional support from arri Schwarz and the music is by vasilis topless remember to hit subscribe for new shows on Thursdays on Amazon Spotify or apple or wherever you get your podcast
28 Comments
✊ in solidarity with my homeland comrades in Wales, standing up with all the workers, warm regards from the United Sheepfucker’s Guild, Local 207 in Waynesville, NC.
J/k, let ‘em have it. Love from 🇺🇸.
More Liz Bates please!
I really hope Susan hall doesn’t get in
On sky news this morning they showed a projection of what the GE could look like and it was a hung parliament .
There may be an ulterior motive for this but I've always said turning an 70/80 seat majority is a tall order for labour .
There are people still voting Tory so we can all foget about this dream of a Tory wipeout .
Liz smashed it today – well done!
Starmer is lucky because the media don't go after him like they did JC. Liz terrible anylist. Greens taking from Labour especially in Bristol where they are going to win with Carla D. Lib Dems picking up Tories & Labour now Tory light
I CANT STAND STARMER but he is an astonishingly good tactician – he is the UK's Mitch McConnel, hopefully less evil.
HE brought down Bojo – he laid the traps over 6 months of PMQ's and Bojo stumbled into them. I just wish he had more vision, cos I fear he will fail miserably at turning the UK around and then its FASCISM time.
When labour win the general election what will the note in the treasury be? "There is no money left and we owe trillions on debt"
Liz Bates: what a star. Very good indeed.
Labour is absolutely winning by default, no one should be excited by this. Starmer is lucky, not good. Gaza position shouldn't be hard, yet they completely face planted and has been so dismissive, that includes Liz's comments.
Please replace rishi now before the general election.
First past the post is just the worst – constantly tactically voting against the tories instead of voting positively on what you actually want is so demoralising
Get out right now Rishi and the Rishite’s……….you sack of grit.
I was asked a crossword clue yesterday it was, 4 letters ending in it, I said sh%t but the answer was grit. I still think I got it right though, like ………
To follow on from my previous comment..
Was I either, being the 48% who got it right or am I the 52% who got it wrong?
The biggest Brexit quandary still to be resolved???
Rishi doesn't need a CV. He's got more money than a normal human being could spend in a dozen lifetimes. And he is only still there to make his millions grow further. He doesn't care for the country or its people. They'll be non-dom and gone before the end of the year.
what a great guest!
As an American it is wild to me that the government gets to decide when the election is. That's just a crazy advantage.
38:25 "This is how pathetic party politics is…"
I'm hopeful for the UK that you're shocked by this. The Republicans in the US have been very close to openly cheering Netanyahu to keep the war going because they're successfully fearmongering about the student protests. It's become their only real wedge issue this year. They tried Ukraine, but Republican voters are pretty lukewarm about it, and only Gaza is really sticking.
There is love for Keir starmer. I love Keir starmer
Spot on Liz. lack of Investment in people (and the things people need) is the failure of successive governments. Effective societies needs to thrive not just survive; that MUST be the guiding mantre of the people we elect to serve us
No because the Tory B team replacing them is Stsrmers Labour
Labour don't want people acknowledging a Genocide is happening.
They can afford to drop brown people and Keir knows it.
Racism is the driving factor.
Plus, I can't envisage De Pfeffel Johnson as a kid from school since he went to Eton not Comprehensive.So that's a poor analogy unless you went through private schooling.
That description of a hung parliament sounds like how parliaments are meant to work: compromise and negotiation
The shocking thing for me is the turnout figures. Are the percentages normal for Council, bi-election and Mayoral elections or are people just scunnered with all political parties?
My friend always said go into an interview like an oxford educated white man 😅
Liz Bates is a delight! So knowledgeable, and SO much fun!
Thank you
I have very bad eyesight, but do the opening credits not say "POPO"? I have been drinking.