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highest number of people arriving in the UK in small boats in a single day so far this year more than 700 people made the journey across the channel it brings a provisional total for the number of arrivals this year to almost 8,300 President Biden says while the US doesn’t squash descent order must Prevail there were clashes as police tried to dismantle a pro Palestinian protest group at the University of California at Los Angeles Clara Harter from La Daily News is there and told us things are a lot calmer now it is quite a difference from the scene last night when chaos really engulfed the whole area everything now is is pretty quiet there’s a couple student protesters still wandering around picking up debris uh meanwhile the LAPD is in the encampment above me right here and that area is sealed off to anyone from the public John swiy could become Scotland’s first Minister as early as next week as his main rival announced she won’t be running Finance secretary Kate forb says she won’t put herself forward as a candidate to become the next SNP leader it follows the resignation of Hamza yusf on Monday SNP MSP Ivan mcke who was back in Kate Forbes has told LBC she’s made the right decision the vision that join SNY laid out this morning uh in terms of how the SNP should government govern what we should focus on how we should engage with members and others and very importantly how he wanted to build that big tent and the things he said very accurate things about Kate’s talents we should usually welcome and I think it’s a real opportunity in the party to pull together and move forward to win elections lbc’s been told drugs are thousand times stronger than heroin could see a rise in drug deaths in the UK particularly at festivals this summer nites were initially picked up in batches of heroin but it’s feared they could be present in the wider Market consultant forensic toxicologist Dr Simon Elliot has told LBC it’s seriously concerning these are um potent op IDs that mimic and work in the same way that heroin does or morphine does cause loads of problems in America America have the opioid crisis fortunately we don’t have that per se but we do have lots of people that take drugs of course and the issue with these drugs is they are so potent that if they’re put in someone’s drugs they don’t know that they’re taking it could lead to death and the polls have now closed in elections that have taken place in many parts of England and Wales today seats being contested on 107 local authorities in England there are also maral elections in London and 10 other areas votes for 37 police Commissioners and a byelection in Blackpool South in the city the F100 has closed up 50 points at 8172 the pound buys $125 and €16 LBC weather scattered showers in the South tonight dry with clearer skies in the north and Northwest with a low of 4° Cloudy for most tomorrow with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of the sunshine in the far south and the Northwest a high of 21° from Global’s Newsroom for LBC I’m Daryl Jackson this is LBC from Global leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC hello a very good evening it’s 4 minutes past 10 on LBC welcome to election Night Live and on LBC news on two channels we’re a bit greedy like that aren’t we sh B greedy um this could be quite an interesting night we haven’t actually got as many uh results as there are normally in local elections but we are going to make the best of what we’ve got aren’t we well we are and you know on any election like National local mayor whatever it is there is always a bit of color as Andrew knows you know I know from years Inu Andrew for those who don’t people know who Andrew is by hello everybody it’s Andrew here it’s Uncle Andrew at one side of the studio but so far anyway let’s hope there be bit more color over that as well apart from my lovely top um Boris Johnson going to the polling Booth I just wondered how many seconds would it take Sheila fogy to bring that up I thought to myself and I I estimated two and a half minutes can we just tell people what’s happened because they might not which is the Boris Johnson who brought in voting ID and lots of people said in Boris lots of people get into trouble this is voter suppression he said nonsense nonsense nonsense everybody able to do this turns up himself without his voter ID and has to be turned away I just love it he has gone back and he has voted and he claims to have voted conservative but to start with he didn’t have his voter ID and was sent home me I I suspect actually when we do start taking calls overnight because there are people like us who want to stay up all night and see what happens um actually just to be clear Andrew is only with us till midnight Midnight some of us have been working all day yes some of us have yeah and he will leave at midnight drop his slipper and then we’ll spend all day tomorrow trying to find no then we’ll spend all day trying to find it um but the on on voter ID actually I noticed throughout the day on social media um so many people earlier in the day actually reminding people to take the right ID and then a couple of stories started to come through of people who’d been rejected because they didn’t have it it’s it’s a big issue for some people is it really is and I think it’s going to be a big issue possibly in the London result where we’ve had a lot of expression of alarm and unease uh from from the mayor himself sadik Khan about perhaps he’s not doing quite as well as he thought he was going to do and perhaps it’s to do with uh voter ID he has a lot of uh people from Minority communities coming to vote for him a lot of younger people he thinks coming to vote for him some of whom may not have voter ID but then of course four years three years ago in 2021 he didn’t do as well as he thought he was going to do and there wasn’t vter ID then Shawn Bailey his opponent then came within four points of beating him which no one I certainly didn’t expect it you may think he’s getting excuses in first I may think that I couldn’t possibly comment I just think London is going to be a more interesting result perhaps than we have expected but do you not think it’s a disgrace that we a democratic disgrace that we won’t find out the London maror result and one or two others until Saturday afternoon certainly a journalistic disgrace well it’s no it’s a disgrace from the point of view of electoral registration officers who run elections for the councils because they always used to count count virtually everything overnight they always some who that would count on Friday morning but because we’ve got local Authority elections police and crime commissioner and maral elections they’re now staggering them but there is something about this that I find deeply unsettling because we never talk about the security of the ballot but if you have a Ballot Box in a warehouse somewhere for two or three days there is a risk that it could be tampered with and we’ve seen this happen before and okay it’s not going to happen everywhere but even if it happens in one place and affects result it’s a democratic disgrace and also it is a bit of a for the voter as well as much as anything else isn’t it you vote on a Thursday and you don’t know what’s happened until the Saturday I mean it’s not unprecedented but it will also have some political implications because as we all know in this huge number of Elections somehow almost mystically un narrative a story suddenly emerges and because we won’t have all the results until Sunday there will be a story being put around by number 10 for instance tomorrow morning and that may Changed by tomorrow afternoon and the narrative might be changed Again by Sunday but in terms of grabbing the agenda it’s very very complicated if you don’t quite know when the process ends a bit of spin well just I won’t say a lie but a bit of spin has got its socks on and gone half oh traveled halfway around the world and before it the truth has got just before we move on actually on on the maral stuff we’ve talked about about London but I mentioned there are two well there are 11 in total aren’t the maral elections happening but that West Midlands result is going to be one the Tories are watching very very carefully Andrew isn’t it it is and comes in there is a strange aspect to all of this because the conservatives have been focusing on two big maral elections Andy Street in the West Midlands and Ben hch and now Baron H and up in teas Valley and in many ways Rishi sunak not survival but certainly the way he comes out of this depends upon those two results they talk about them the whole time prime minister’s questions they were mentioned specifically again and again and again but here is the weird thing Andy Street disagrees with Rishi sunak about a great deal he’s against brexit it uh he’s campaigning with purple and green literature not blue literature in um and again uh Ben hin has dist himself doesn’t use the word conservative in some of his campaign literature these are very very independent-minded uh as as is happening with Mayors all around the country they’re not really party people they’re City people first and so Rishi sunat is trying to lean on people who are themselves trying to walk away from him which is a very UND undignified kind of position to be yeah yeah but they’ll be watching that result for sure and if people want to watch us it’s very easy to do you can watch us on global player and you can watch us on the LBC YouTube channel and if you do either those things you can actually set your TV if You’ got a smart TV you can watch us on your giant TV screen until 6 a.m. we promise not to send you to sleep I brought my lipstick and everything well can I me is that what it is can I just point out that I went for a Chinese meal before I came here and Spilled most of it down my hither to imet Shir you can see so please don’t put me on your television screens I I wonder what the stench was low definition is what Andrew’s shirt needs should we introduce two of our other guests Gareth Knight who if you watch these programs with shul and I regularly you will know Gareth very well I think Gareth was it 2008 the first election overnight program that we did I think you’ve been doing it with me for 17 years you deserve some sort of long service medal yeah that’s right yeah 2007 actually we’ be through the entire political cycle that was when um David Cameron had his first big election Victory on the local election night we’ve gone through all of that um come back around the other side now and without wishing to preempt what may happen this evening I suspect it won’t quite be as good a night for for that party as it was in 2007 now tell us what you do what are you here to do I’m basically going to crunch some of the numbers keep an eye on some of the early results that come in in particular um we’re not going to get a massive number of results results this evening there’s over 2,600 election results due in in over the course of the weekend uh we’ll got about 600 or so in overnight um but it will give us a good flavor there will be some interesting races to to cover and we’ll probably go into that later not least the Blackpool South parliamentary byelection which I think is probably going to be the first headline of the evening no one really knows when that’ll come in sometimes these byelections come in quite swiftly about 1:00 um sometimes they can take a long long time to come through but in terms of um results yeah we are going to be lacking some of those big headline results the meral results for example won’t come through until Saturday some counts are not even going on until Sunday which is really yeah so without wishing to defend them to be fair they did prepare for a general election on the same night so a lot of c a lot of election and returning officers have blocked booked counting Halls Leisure centers and so on for three or four days because there was a possibility they could have had general election local elections PCC election and a maril election all at the same time so they just block booked it and when that happens they have to prioritize the general election which therefore means they lock the local elections in the diary for tomorrow and can I just ask in terms of the local election results we’ve got harle paol and I think harow coming reasonably early we think is that right and those are both very very significant fights so tonight the ones to keep an eye on from my perspective obviously Newcastle and Sunderland always come through first and we can only get a bit of a flavor from them they’ve been interesting areas to watch for the last few years but yeah harow Reddit Rushmore and Northeast Lincolnshire are for that I would pull out as key wants to watch harow is a straight conservative labor fight Reddit is an interesting one I heard Ian talking a lot about redit um on his podcast a few days ago Rushmore is very interesting that’s that’s old the shot that’s the the core of the army isn’t always been Tory could could lose to labor if L it labor would have to have a really good night but if they can take Rushmore this is as about as conservative a Heartland as you can possibly get it would be the equivalent of the conservatives Tak in barnesley and then North East Lincolnshire where I grew up so I have an interest in that sense but it’s also a key conservative swing area um the labor party are very keen to take both the CLE thorps and grinby SE to the general election as well and Scarlet McGuire is with us as well Scarlet I know you’ve been giving some thought with with what Gareth has just said in mind you’ve been giving some thought to the the distinction really between how people vote and who votes in a local election versus how people vote and who votes in a general election give us your thoughts on that yes so first off so sign ly fewer people vote in a local election so turnout last time around was 32% that compares sort of high 60s normally or at least last time around for the 2019 general election and the voters uh look quite different perhaps unsurprisingly they tend to be much more politically engaged they tend to be much more uh party loyal they tend to think party affiliation matters a lot more much older so if you uh are under 25 18 to 25 and you voted in the last election you still only one in four chance that you’ll vote in a local election this time around so really really young people do not tend to turn out in local elections a lot of the over 660s do you also more likely to own your home outright you’re more likely to shop at weight tros and Marks and Spencers believe it or not so it’s quite a different sort of electorate now I think that’s just worth bearing in mind because whilst local elections I think you know obviously are fascinating that’s why we’re going to be up all night looking at them um they are distinct from a general election and Scarlet could I ask you a question about that because one of the things I was told to be very very exciting over the next 24 hours is the projected National vote in other words what real votes the the party’s got and how that compared to all the polling which is showing labor so far ahead at the moment and all of that but if what you say is true and I’m sure it is is that projected National vote in terms of a general election meaningful at all I would say it’s meaningful but I think in some ways actually it could be more meaningful to look at a standard voting intention poll that we might have week to week so I’ve noticed that this week Yuga have had their latest figures out with horrific numbers for the conservatives having them third with Le voters and actually again what we’re doing tonight is fascinating things like Blackpool South so interesting for general election to see how reforms doing things like that but um yeah I think tricky to extrapolate too much and in those in in in those polls that you were just mentioning I think the conservatives are know all of three points ahead of Reform and I think behind reform in London so I think that is going to be a very very big part of the night and how reform doing Blackpool South is going to be absolutely fascinating absolutely fascinating we’ll get much more from Scarlet on the polls in a few minutes time and much more from Gareth on all theology which I always find it a very difficult word uh to say now we’re getting lots of questions coming in what what I’d like to do over the course of the next hours eight hours is take your questions we’ll have lots of experts we’ve already got two two experts three experts possibly even four and a half experts and half and I’m good at asking questions and and so we we’ll take your questions if you want to send them to us via text via email um you can email what do they email for this program I never use email do you not I mean on the program I never use email I do Ian so Ian LBC .co.uk you can WhatsApp your question to 03456 6973 uh you can text it to the same number you can say Alexa send a comment to LBC and we’d love to take your calls throughout the evening as well what’s been your experience of voting you had a really interesting one here from my hometown of tumbridge Wells uh which we maybe come to in a moment about the security of the person’s identity when they they vote um if you’ve had problems with voter ID or you’ve experienced it uh we’d love to hear about that as well and we’ll be going around the country in a moment to our reporters at various counts where there’s going to be some key results because if we’re staying up all night they’re staying up all night they really are and they’ll be working all throughout tomorrow as as will you and I you’ve got your show tomorrow I’ve got my new Friday night show as well so it’s it’s all go have to say um while these two were working today I was at the gym this morning obviously you can tell yeah and I said to my personal trainer who’s 25 I said so have you voted he goes I’ve never voted well I said well you’re going to today and did he I’ve just texted him to find out and he hasn’t replied yet so I suspect the answer is no like I wish that weirdo would leave me alone do your sit ups here anyway it’s 17 minutes past 10 here on LBC and LBC news this is LBC e e e election Night Live on LBC text 8485 19 minutes past 10 here on LBC and LBC news uh interesting question here on a WhatsApp message from Robbie who says can we get a timetable for some of the key events coming up overnight I need to ration the popcorn um Gareth what can you tell us what do we I mean the byelection I mean it’s in Blackpool so it’s a concentrated area that ought to be relatively quick to count uh that’s famous last words um some of these parliamentary byelections could take quite a long time because you have quite a lot of smaller parties that are worried about losing their deposits which you need to um get 5% of the vote to retain your deposits so often you find that for reasons that are really of no interest to the overall result these bation accounts can go on there was one quite recently that went on till gone 7 in the morning it was it was crazy we just couldn’t understand why but it was all to do with um deposits um these things never take they’re never as quick as you think and the process of counting ballot papers and they have to unfold them all they have to go through the postal votes which requires envelopes be open they have to verify the numbers if the numbers aren’t right they have to do it all over again and only at that point did they then sort it into pile so these things can take a very long time what’s the latest one you’ve ever been at mine’s 500 a.m. my account in the general election in North nor in 2005 that was 5 a.m. 5 a.m. yes I on a 5 a.m. 5:30 kind of thing and what I’ve got here if it’s of any use to your popcorn munching colleague um is the Press association’s list of when they expect things to come out I’ll just read out a few see they say that they think Blackpool South will be out at around 2:45 is their prediction of that but interestingly the the first of those big maral seats that we’re interested in which is East Midlands uh sorry I beg your pardon the teas Valley comes just before that so that’s Andy Street and teas Valley they’re predicting around 12:30 C come so an early one that’s good very very interesting because keep some popcorn for that they’re Bell weather aren’t they really they really are they really are youland 30 minutes after that let’s go to one of our correspondents uh Chris Chambers he’s lbc’s Northwest correspondent he joins us from the count at Blackpool South and can hopefully give us a little bit of an ation of when we might get that result Chris hi what can you tell us very good evening counting just getting underway here at the Blackpool sports center it’s Blackpool South byelection and we’re expecting a result hopefully somewhere Loosely between 2 and 5 obviously a 3-hour window there so it’ll depends how quickly people are counted here but cly that’s around the time we are expecting things to happen this is all happening of course because the conservative MP Scott Benton resigned back in March following a lobbying Scandal and so we’re to elect a new MP here Chris Webb standing on behalf of Labor Mark Butcher on behalf of Reform Andrew KGAN for lib Dem and David Jones for the conservatives it should be close I know in particular reform were very vocal in the buildup to this they were certainly out on a on a big bus trying to Rally support you know we had the labor candidate to uh particularly Keen to push the fact that they were here to take over from the conservatives having been here of course until 2019 since 1997 all the way through uh for a number of years there 22 years so it’ be interesting to see what’s happened here it’s starting to warm up a bit it’s Lively and uh like I said expect something between 2 and 5:00 hand over now to my LBC colleague Alan cinski who’s in Harley poool thanks Chris well 12 Council seats up for grabs here in Harley poool and I was speaking to a couple of Labor members just outside this Leisure Hall before I came in and they are quietly confident that they can gain at least the two seats that they would need to assume full control of this Council it would be the first time they’ve done so since 2019 on what was a fairly disastrous night for labor back then of course not as disastrous as what unfolded here just two years later that Hartlepool byelection where the conservatives took that astonishing whitewash Victory and in fact I can actually see the very fire exit in front of me down below the balcony where the labor candidate that night was whisked away into a Ford Fiesta outside and driven away out of here past a 30 foot inflatable Boris Johnson I’m sure that’s an image that’s still with all of us it was certainly one that stayed with cier starmer I’m sure for a long time it was a horrible night for him recent reports actually that he was considering quitting given how everything unfolded then now of course though almost three years on times are very different and he will be very much hoping to point to any gains made here elsewhere in the Northeast in the teas Valley as a sign that voters are now showing their trust with labor that the building blocks the bricks even are very much going back into the red wall and it would be an even bigger coup for him would set if that teas Valley mayor count swung Labor’s way tomorrow and very much up in a how that’s going to go at the moment but in terms of the count times here we’re expecting around half 1 actually here so one of the earliest in the country which is always good for us reporters that are indeed Staffing the overnight counts and we can go to another of our reporters now Emma cor who is in phum here in faram one of the 18 councils in the UK that’s up for elections still run by the conservatives and they’re looking to hold on to this council tonight all 32 seats up for re-election here the Liv DS posing the biggest threat really for gains they need 13 seats though to hold the council while the Tories at the moment still have 24 so it’ be a tough ask but if the conservatives lose a significant number of seats to the Liv Dem tonight that’ll be quite the statement here this is tor Heartland former Homer secretary SW bravman is the MP here this count looking to come in around 4:30 this morning and I think overall it will be libdem gains uh the overarching story here in the Southeast they’re eyeing up Portsmouth Council just down the road they only need four seats to take that there’s also har in hampire another Target that result coming in around 1:30 uh a.m. and they’re Keen as while to extend their control over the Tories in gosport in eastley in Winchester all those results coming in overnight labor not predicted to you know sweep across this part of the country but could make gains uh tomorrow perhaps down in Sussex um but what we could see really is this part of this part of Tory Harland the southeast perhaps some of the councils here turning yellow and that’s of course perhaps setting a president for the big one the general election the lidm is really going to drive to take seats here and when that comes around and any wins over the next 24 hours I think will give him the confidence to do that and now to our reporter Henry Riley will’ll be bringing us the latest from the east of England the west and the Midlands throughout the night from the comy studio of leester Square thank you very much Emma uh good evening I’m covering a range of counts this evening firstly a few in Essex Colchester we’re expecting at around 3:30 thork also in Essex at around 3:00 a.m. that’s no overall control as is Colchester um and we’ve also got harow of course currently Tory controlled K starma visited it just a few days ago went to the football pitch and actually spoke with LBC as well so those three in Essex really key the other ones I’ll be keeping an eye on firstly Northeast Lincoln share something Andrew Mah mentioned earlier Melanie on who’s the former MP for great Grimsby standing again in the general election labor very much hoping to make gains in that particular area Northeast Lincolnshire also thork as well I missed that out another one of those Essex seats that is no overall control expected at around 3:00 flipped sort of red blue over the years um so Essex is a key one to watch I think Essex man basilon man basilon also counting this evening and then uh lastly I going to be covering Reddit as was mentioned earlier uh close one to to Ian Dale’s heart as uh with the with the friendship with Jackie Smith interesting to know how that goes that has been a bellweather seat ever since it was established the seat in 1997 the MP um has always gone the way um of the governing party so that will be one to keep keep an eye on as well Ian and Sheila Henry thank you very much indeed we’ll be coming back to our reporters throughout the night for the very latest one one thing to bear in mind though when we talk or when they talk about the result this is not like a general election you don’t get a formal sort of Person coming up at the end and saying well this party’s won because each Council area is divided up into Wards so you actually get Ward results and some of those can actually give us a real indication of what’s going to happen throughout the night and if you’re listening to this you may be watching us at an election count and you want to feed into our program give us the gossip from where you are uh you can do that uh by whatsaap text email whatever I’ll give those details out in a moment and and I know Andrew you and I were talking earlier on about uh the maral election and the role of Mayors in in our polit in English politics in particular these days um they’ve changed things haven’t they they really have it does seem to me in many ways we’re describing a new Democratic landscape in England we you know this is not familiar these Mayors only really came in through the Blair and Cameron governments that’s when it started I think there’ve been 54 referendums for Mayors and 37 of them were lost but nonetheless we’ve got these 10 Regional Mayors and I think what’s happening is bit by bit they’re ceasing to be a kind of echo or mimicry of Westminster politics in any real way and it’s all about who SP speaks and stands for that part of the country so you know Andy Burnham King of the North speaks for Manchester he’s not a typical labor politician anymore in terms of Westminster and I think this is becoming more and more the case and so when we say that you know Ben hen if he wins in teas Valley or Andy Street if he wins in the West Midlands those are going to be great news for Rishi sunak I just think we have to be a bit careful of that because they have both distanced themselves from Rishi sunak and from the conservatives nationally because they want to speak for their own areas and that shift that the Mayors have brought into our politics it’s not unlike what you and I were talking about the other day with regards to devolution English Devolution absolutely yes um I mean uh just just let me read you what Ben hin said I mean he was always a great Boris Johnson man he was ennobled of course in Boris Johnson’s uh dissolution or final honors uh list but he said this to The Independent Newspaper very recently said there are lots of people who will come up to me and say they’re going to vote for me but they probably won’t to be voting for the conservative party in the general election that is not the kind of endorsement exactly that Rishi sunak is hoping for but the perception of a loss to labor say in in a meril election will be problematic won’t it it’s certainly will um and if you if you flip it around the truth is the labor party has spent a huge amount of time and effort uh canvasing in the Midlands and in the teas Valley area because those are areas where they want to pick up lots of seats in the general election so if they’ put lots of effort in on the ground and they don’t make much advance in these elections that will be difficult for GE sta can someone give me a definitive answer on this is it it referendums as you said or is it referenda or can you say either I think brats say referenda normal people say referendums I mean if we were Romans in Circa which we 20 ad I think we’d probably say referenda or referenda probably now I bring you the breaking news that some somebody called Ben kenes is in the building we are going to bring him into the studio in a couple of minutes time uh so that completes our lineup but we’re also obviously going to have politicians with us throughout the night we thought we’d get through the first half an hour without any politicians and we have managed that somehow uh we’re also going to hear more from Scarlet Maguire and from Gareth Knight in just a moment and we’ll be talking to in fact we’ll be going to Reddit she just mentioned that Gareth and we should say the reason that g said that is because Jackie Smith my podcast partner was of course the MP for Rish between 97 feel a theme emerging don’t you so we’re going to keep a close eye on reg this evening not least because I’m recording the podcast with her at 4:30 tomorrow afternoon so she’ll either be rather distraught or not now uh we will go to the news headlines now on LBC and LBC news at 10:31 here’s darl Jackson 45 people have been arrested after protesters blocked a coach taking Asylum Seekers to the BBY Stockholm in Dorset there were clashes with police at demonstrations in pekham in southeast London the foreign secretary David Cameron’s been to ke to meet president zelinski the visit comes after the UK’s multi-year commitment to deliver three billion pounds of Military Support to Ukraine and votes are being counted following elections across England and Wales people have been voting for councilors Mayors and police Commissioners LBC wether scattered showers in the South tonight dry with clear skies in the north and Northwest and a low of 4° this is [Music] LBC e e e e leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC welcome back to the program inan Dale vti and RAR who who are you again are you Ben kenes lvc’s Ben kenes we’re also joined by the labor M Allison McGovern too we’ll hear from in just a moment uh Ben your thoughts ahead of the long night ahead well it’s it’s a dress rehearsal sh isn’t it the general election probably the last but certainly the last part we’re going to have before I what I think is going to be an early November general election and the bar’s incredibly high for labor anything short of sweeping up hundreds of seats is going to be seen as a failure we’ve said this before and pretty much every time they cleared that hurdle so it’s going to be interesting to see as that election edges closer the wisdom for ages in Westminster has been the polls will narrow the polls will narrow no sign of it yet whatsoever and intriguing to see whether there’s any sign at all tonight and how how badly are people predicting the conservatives will do or what’s their worst fear you can I think you can always tell a lot from the expectation management the parties do the fact they are saying Ben hon winning in Te Valley would be a success a man who got 72% of the vote last time round is a sign actually of how badly the Tes are expecting this could go that even if that may wins holds on that will be they will say that’s a sign of for success is quite staggering and as well as the there’s that whole local level of you know local results coming through and those issues really mattering to those people who live there and particularly those who voted whatever those issues are but the the the way this is going to be uh metabolized by the parties in terms of their general election prospects um Talk us through specifically what they will be looking at do you think well I think a lot of Tor MPS are are keeping a very close eye on just how badly this goes for them there’s a lot of pressure on rishy sunak I don’t think we’re going to see a Full Throttle sort of full throated leadership CH challenge but there is I suspect however this goes going to be a ramping up of discontent possibly more MPS joining the likes of Simon Clark in speaking out and saying it’s time for the prime minister to go because what you have to sort of I think be a mind she is as that election gets closer as well what parties want leader starts to shift Rishi sunak as a good manager he’s seen us hard working he’s seen us across the detail what you want an election campaign is that he’s a good communicator and that is something I think even Richi son’s allies would probably accept he isn’t that said there’s also of course there is and Tori and P’s minds and awareness that can they really change leader again well a quick qu from Andrew on that and the answer to that is I think no they can’t I mean on the upside you change leader you’ve got a fresh face everyone gets a bit excited about you know penny more than leading the conservative party is that worth the absolute ridicule that they would be subjected to through a lot of the country by changing leader without an election yet again and the M of that I think not it could be and I’m going to disagree with you here we have a little bit of Edge on the program now D um I think that there is a 20% chance that if these elections go terribly to the conservatives by which I mean they lose teas Valley they lose West Midlands they lose maybe 500 Council seats um torm pees will do what they do best and that is panic yes they will yes and therefore it’s entirely possible to see rishy sunak going I mean might he could call an election to PR prevent that and we’ll we’ll talk about this in much more detail a bit later um but it could happen I’m not saying it won’t happen I’m just saying it would be barking mad and do them no good if you’re a Tory MP in one of those 20 seats that Penny Pon could Penny Mor or KY b or whoever could rescue um you’re not going to think it’s barking mad because you’ll think it’s worth it but I think you go through week after another three or four weeks of absolute Mayhem Tory turmoil we’ love it yeah yeah the voters just say more importantly from the voters perspective yet another phase of absence of government should we hear from someone who might have a bit of insight into this who might that be it might be the deputy chair of the conservative party and MP for Reddit of which we have spoken much this evening Rachel McLean who joins us uh Rachel very good evening to you now obviously you’re seat has been in the news quite a lot over the last few weeks with various polls predicting one thing or another let’s just look at rage first before we come on to the National picture what are you expecting to happen on the council front tonight well we obviously we have got 27 of our hardworking counselors all up for reelection so we’ve got all out so it’s very unpredictable we’ve never actually had that in reddish before I’ve been out every single day as you can imagine talking to people on the door full step so we’ll we’ll see it’s very unpredictable I mean I really hope that we can stay in control um but at the end of the day they’ve just started counting so we’ll have to see how we get on uh Jackie Smith has been out stirring up apathy uh in her old constituency as well I mean supp because I managed to stir her up more than that um she was telling me sort of I mean she’s getting a good reception on the doorstep but as all politicians or even exp politicians say you you you want what were the main issues that come up when you talk to voters on the doorstep I mean is it Rwanda because that seems to be what the Prime Minister thinks everyone’s obsessed with getting flights off to Rwanda well you know I’m going to be completely Frank we don’t always get a good reception on the doorstep we don’t and I don’t think any politician does because you’re going around you’re talking to people about issues that really affect them dayto day and life is not perfect so there’s always a list of issues that people will raise with you what I’ve really observed this time around though is people are definitely separating when they’re talking to us they’re separating this local election from a general and they’re kind of making comments about well you know the national picture and you know they’ve got views on that but then they’ll say well this Council has run really well we really like what they’re doing we like what you’re doing you Rachel um and then we’ve got some things you know we’ve got some concerns about the national picture so there is a real separation in their minds which I find quite interesting so they have been talking predominantly about local things it is all about uh the roads the potholes um sort of planning and housing in some areas the local environment um traffic speeding parking all the classic Council issues they’ve been talking about let’s move on to the National picture because it doesn’t look as if it’s going to be a particularly great night for the conserv party okay we haven’t had a single result in but I mean all my political instincts tell me call I’m going to call it anyway going to call it 40 minutes in it the polls show the conservative party at 18% only 3% ahead of Reform UK now I have never seen the conservative party in such Dire Straits have you me oh no I mean i’ I’m I’m a relative uh new girl at all this compared to UI in anyway so I’ve I’ve only ever seen the party do much better than this of course it’s we’re doing badly in the polls it would be a miracle if we did well tonight we’ve been in government for 14 years so again people are focusing on everything sort of any a list of things that’s affected them um and they’ll sort of come out with that on the doorstep but what I what I have actually seen is what they always end up reflecting is that we definitely don’t want labor is what they’ll say uh because they’ve they’ve seen particularly where we are in reddish we’re only a few miles away from Birmingham and everybody can see one absolute pigs labor of made of Birmingham and you know we you make you make a good fist of that I’m being I’m being clear that they will complain about a lot of things but then they will come back to this point but you you over the years and your predecessor have built up a majority of was it 18,000 something like that in your seat 15 and a half bear in mind in 2010 it was a labor seat so that is a real achievement but given the state of the polls and and the individual constituency polls in Reddit you can’t sit there and seriously tell me that there’s no enthusiasm for labor when it’s quite clear that your seat is under threat at the next general oh yeah no I’m not tell I’m not telling you that I I’m might working and fighting for every single vote I mean there’s plenty of polls that predict I’m going to lose this seat uh it’s it’s on a knife edge uh the polls when you look at myy it’s really it’s too close to call would you be more sorry to interrupt sorry to interrupt but would you be more likely to retain your seat with a change of prime minister no there’s not a single person there’s not a single person uh who I’ve been talking to uh in the last six weeks who said oh I’ll tell you what the answer to this is is a new prime minister zero but if I if I remember correctly you were quite a leading supporter of Penny Morant in the last leadership election campaign um do you not think that she would attract I’m afraid I must correct your memory I have not uh Penny Mort is an excellent person but I’ve never supported her to be leader well I apologize my memory is obviously failing me but do you not think that um her public appeal is more is better than that of the Prime Minister and that she might actually be able to rescue seats including yours I don’t think that at all no there’s no evidence of that I don’t think it i’ never and I’ve never thought it and can I just point out of course that Penny Morant herself said earlier on today I think it was that she didn’t want to be put into number 10 at this point like a new boiler so I mean an interesting self description um Rachel mle thank you very much for joining us um Gareth n let’s come come back to you very briefly on on Reddit it is one of those bellweather seats isn’t it yes it is um but as you said in the last few years it’s actually been fairly solidly conservative so it would be a decent achievement for labor to to win that I’ve got to say in terms of expectation management um I’ve got to take my hat off to the to the conservative party this year they have really really um you know got everyone’s expectations down like never before um I they’re almost in the position where they could take a 22% hit on Ben Haan which would see them wiped off the map pretty much everywhere in the country and claim it as a victory they could almost take 400 losses of council seats that’s four in every 10 seats they’re defending pretty much and claim that’s a victory um their expectation management game has been you know absolutely world class and would you agree and Andrew feel free to com on this that in a way is an illustration of what you were saying about the the change that the Mayors have made to our politics because people will know those characters in a way they won’t know Mr and Mrs miggins the great councelors who are making sure that you get your poels fixed I can exactly see why rishy sunak would grab victory for Ben hin and even more so because it’s a tighter contest for Andy Street and say look look it’s a huge Triumph don’t look at all these boring little Council seats don’t look at any of that just focus on those two big I can exactly see why he would do it but at the same time if you look at the how meral politics generally in England has developed I think he’d be very very unwise to take himself seriously and and you and I were both remember 1990 when the conservatives did really badly in local elections Margaret exactly Margaret Thatcher was at her most unpopular and yet the conservatives held on to Westminster and wesworth and Ken Baker who was chairman of the party at the time emerged from conservative central office in Smith Square grinning like a cheser cat and claiming an overwhelming Victory and the supine media accepted it now I don’t think that’s going to happen this time because none of us were involved what do you mean the time well no well I’m you were you were a journalist at the time did you suck it up I sucked it up we every everybody was so impressed by Ken’s hootspa that we just went with it it but we’ve never forgotten it I was a little girl time you weren born it’s your fault you weren’t a little girl at the time you were working on BBC Radio Mery and I knew nothing I was a little girl just starting out okay you’re a little girl when it’s an image we all cherish yeah uh we are going to talk to labor MP and Shadow now I’ve forgotten which Shadow you are now um employment and socialy I’m actually technically acting Shadow uh Shadow Secretary of State for DWP at the moment because my good colleague Liz Kendall is having a few weeks off cuz she’s having a hip done so oh I’ve had full sympathy on that there send her my best if she needs any tips on her recovery Happ to give right so we’re going to be talking to Alison McGovern in a minute she’s got four of lbc’s top presenters well three and me to grill her and we’re rather looking forward to it Allison we’ll be back in a moment it’s 10:48 LBC e e e e election Night Live on LBC you’re listening to a special overnight election program local election program in case you think randomly the election has just been called panic panic Ian Dale myself sh of fogy Andrew Mah Ben kenes Allison MCG Governor is with us acting Shadow Secretary of State for work and pensions a labor MP for WHL South um Scarlet McGuire is here as well a poster and we’ll hear more from Gareth Knight throughout the night’s election commentator Scarlet for for labor with that eye on the national election the general election when it comes what will labor have to do to send that preener election message cuz they did they did okay last year but how much better this year are they going to have to do to send that pre-election message so again I think this is where looking at number of council actual seats is probably not that helpful and all eyes will be on the projected National share or national equivalent vote whichever one you sort of look at um last year labor were only nine points ahead they got to 35 I think this year you’d be expecting a double point lead and you would also want K St to be beating his own bests of 35 and also Ed millan’s bests I think 38 in 200 13 you would really be looking for K St I think to be um to be excelling that I think one sight caveat to that is that there was a lot of um debate last year after the local election saying labor actually didn’t do quite so well um I think whilst their projected National share was definitely not thumping there have been a lot of signs since that actually their vote has got a whole lot more efficient and so that they they can have a smaller lead in the vote share and still translate that into a large number of seats at the general even though it’s difficult to extrapolate one more thing I will say to this is we’ve been talking an awful lot about how this going to be a bad night for the conservatives think it will be a bad night for the conservatives however they managed to spin it there are also a couple of potential problems for labor lurking in there as well so I think one of them uh if you think about the um the mayor election in the Northeast with uh Jamie Driscoll standing against Labor’s Kim mcginness some paing has had him neck and neck now mayl polling’s very hard to do but if he is anything like a serious Challenger that’s going to be a problem for labor and then there’s a whole host of councils where labor are going to be standing against former Labor candidates who’ve resigned over the G issue and I think they’re also something to watch out for this evening thank you and Ben you’ve got some already some of the people on the ground in the West Midlands in the labor campaign in the West Midlands sounding pretty pessimistic playing it down not enough traditional labor voters turning out is the assessment of one of them which feeds into what Scarlet would saying it’s interesting some of these seats where look to win the the general election labor needs to win Tory voters that’s pretty clear and S&P voters they are relaxed about losing support in some of the cities to the libm and the greens but it is going to be interesting in some of those seats whether there is a sort of protest vote amongst traditional labor voters at some of the positions Ki starm has taken yes on Gaza but also on immigration also on the the economy and taxes and if there is a sign of them losing Labor’s base that’s going to be interesting I would like to ask Allison M govern about that actually because I think it’s a really really interesting point that Ben’s making there um two two particular areas one is the West Midlands where your candidate is facing a sort of George Galloway Pro Gaza candidate and I wonder how can learn you are as a party that you are losing quite a lot of Muslim voters at the moment point one and point two let’s talk about the Northeast and jamy Gris Driscoll he was you know he was a labor L mayor for North and then he wasn’t allowed to stand this time but he does seem to be a very popular figure it would be a bit of an embarrassment if he won that would it not well to come to the um to the issue in the West Midlands and obviously you know across the country we’re very proud of the positive campaigns that we’re running everywhere um and nobody’s mentioned the big byelection in Blackpool which is um where I’ve been today and we’re all you know very much looking out for that result but to come to the West Midlands I mean there are there is an there is an issue there definitely in that um Birmingham city council has obviously had a huge number of challenges as have many councils but Birmingham happens to be the biggest Council in the country so their so their their problems are exacerbated and you know when it comes to what’s happening in Gaza you know I find it difficult to talk about that in an electoral context because that issue is so important um and you know we we I know people feel incredibly strongly about it and then when you when you say sort of like traditional labor voters I’m not entirely sure um what you mean by that because we’ll obviously fight for every vote particularly in the Asal elections where they you know huge areas like the West M or or or greater Manchester or um you know uh Mery side where I’m from I think we’re right to I think think about how um that that issue has you know has affected people they feel very strongly about it you know it’s a difficult one and you know as ever in elections if there are people who’ve not felt able to vote for labor this time we’ll listen to them that said you know I think I’ve been out on doorsteps today and um I don’t want to do that like stereotypical like getting a very positive response on the but certainly not the worst day on doors I’ve ever had put it that way when was that Alison by any need chance the worst doors day on doors I’ve ever hadit brexit 2019 I mean in in terms of brexit arguing with a woman who lived literally on my street that it wasn’t a good idea for to vote for a thing just because David Cameron didn’t want you to that was a pretty difficult moment on doors um but yeah you know fact I’ve had had rough on 2019 wasn’t exactly a picnic um but uh but today today was really good and as I said before we we’ve Wun a positive campaign up and down the country and we’re really proud of it Andrew you asked me sorry about the Northeast these Northern Mayors to jump in Steve rotheram Andy Burnham and in the past Jamie Driscoll all to the left of the the party leadership down at West quite interesting you know depends on depends on what um what is is I mean they really they are a bit there isn’t a sort of you know it’s not as simple as all of that and I think the thing that the thing that people point to which I think is absolutely right is the fact that um Mays have I think you said it before Andrew they’ve changed our politics they really have yeah and people are able to be an individual um more the Northeast thing is complicated because it’s not the same as um the previous a new seat new morality it’s it’s much bigger in size the old one was I think I’m right in saying about 40% um of the current one and and um you know as as everywhere we’ve we’ve like had a lot to say about what that area needs particularly economically and I would say for my own part you know in merys side I remember campaigning to have a metro May in the first place which wasn’t a straightforward thing to bring about my brother stood I came second there you go there you go amazing new vote Liam they weren’t straightforward to get in place and then when you elect them for the first time people are often like why do we want another layer but actually if you go to people in merys side greater Manchester and now and said you know Mays what you think of them most people I think are pretty positive because you’ve got that stronger voice I think people feel like we wanted that balance in our politics of somebody who would have that City area just as London has had since 1998 to to be able to take decisions on things that can I just ask one other thing ask you to jump across the penines and talk a little bit about something we haven’t talked about yet which is York and North Yorkshire the mayoral candidate there it’s rishy sunak backyard and the Tory candidate there Keen Duncan I read is not using the words Rishi sunak in any of his literature how is it going for labor there I think I think if the Tories are really spinning that they’re going to lose North Yorkshire then this really is a Tory spin machine that is kind of woring at mil an hour because I mean that is not a part of the country that we you know that is so far from like labor heartlands however obviously in some of these moralities we are also looking at individual seats you know um teas Valley I think has been mentioned as well that like we are way behind in the morality but actually if you look at some of the individual seats that we’re campaigning in we’re in a good place when it comes to the general election and I think that’s what’s going on there as well that you know I would find it very unlikely um what do I know I’ve been on the other side of the penines today but you know I would find it very unlikely however it’s it’s as much about the individual activity in the Parliamentary seats because this is not a midterm this you know we are now preener election in fact general election overdue so you know we need to be working on those parliamentary seats which is I think why the interest there can I just ask about London on the topic of Mets sadique K two terms in lots of brief feeling lots of expectation management it’s going to be closed the reality is isn’t it t candidate pretty weak the campaign’s been pretty weak anything other than a pretty comprehensive Victory is not going to be a ringing endorsement of Sadi KH is it I think sadique you know managing to to win a third term is really good and I think that he has faced a lot of really pretty nasty politics actually um really grim and you know I’m a proud uh plastic scouser as we call people from um the wh side of the Mery you’ll do you’ll do nak oh not well you know I’m from the east side of the world which is not anyway um but um but you expect but I live for 10 years in London and I and I found it to be a welcoming Multicultural thriving place where you know a huge number of people all get along well and I think the politics in this election have been not befitting a city like London really so I think you know a victory for sadik will be a fantastic Victory you know whatever the size Alison for the moment thank you very much indeed GIS Knight still with us Scarlet McGuire with us Andrew here till midnight uh Ian and I with you until 6:00 in the morning Ben here till 2 it’s a deal to and we’ll be joined as well uh in a few moments by labor Sarah Jones and conservative Angela Richardson as well we’ll also take your calls yes will 0345 6060 973 on LBC and LBC news this is LBC election Night Live with Sheila fogy and Ian Dale it is 1 minute past 11 on your radio on global player and on your smart speaker play LBC news where the news never stops this is LBC [Music] news from Global’s Newsroom I’m Daryl jaon voting is over and Counting is getting underway in many of the elections held today Millions have been casting votes for local councilors Mays and police Commissioners the conservatives know they’re in for a difficult night they’re defending nearly 1,000 Council seats in England conservative MP for Reddit Rachel McLean told LBC it will be a miracle if they do well we’ve been in government 14 years so again people are focusing on everything sort of any a list of things that’s affected them what they always end up reflecting is that we definitely don’t want labor they’ve seen particularly where we are in reddish we’re only a few miles away from Birmingham and everybody can see one absolute pigs ear labor of made of Birmingham well labor won’t say how many gains they’re hoping to make well there’s also a byelection in Blackpool lbc’s Chris Chambers is there tonight counting well underway here at Blackpool Sports Center this is where we’re waiting to find out who’s going to become the new MP Blackpool South the position was vacated by Scott Benton back in March the conservative MP caught up in a lobbying Scandal that resulted in him resigning Labour’s Chris Webb is the favor to get it here we’ll find out somewhere between 2 and 5 Chris Chambers LBC Blackpool in other news foreign secretary Lord Cameron’s been to keev to meet president zalinski the visit comes ahead of the UK’s multi-year commitment to deliver 3 billion P of Military Support to Ukraine the UK is once again absolutely leading the way in how we support Ukraine the announcement by the Prime Minister that we will give £3 billion every year for as long as is necessary a coach set to take Asylum Seekers to the B stock Home has left pekham without anybody on board a number of people have been arrested following clashes with police during demonstrations in southeast London number 10 has described it as unacceptable yesterday saw the highest number of people arriving in the UK in small boats in a single day so far this year more than S 00 people made the journey across the channel it brings the provisional total for the number of arrivals this year to almost 8,300 and John sw’s main rival to become Scotland’s next first Minister has rolled herself out of the running former Finance secretary Kate forb says she won’t stand against the former deputy first minister in the race to replace Hamza USF LBC weather scattered showers in the South tonight dry with clear skies in the north and Northwest and a low of 4° from Global’s Newsroom for lb I’m Daryl Jackson this is LBC from Global leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC and a very good evening it’s 4 minutes past 11 on LBC and LBC news it’s lbc’s election Night Live show uh between now and 6: a.m. oh yes it is isn’t it Sheila we are here for the D well we’re here the duration unlike some of our part-time colleagues yeah but we know over the years we’ve done this the second you’re up and running you sudden it’s a bit like when you’re traveling Andrew you and I traveled together last year didn’t we and before you know it we did yes it’s a scandalous R I did hear the rumor scandalous rumor they’re all true um but you know once you get moving and get going unless there is a hideous delay which there won’t be um you did before you know it it’s six o’clock and all the results are in well let’s let’s introduce every we have Andrew Mah Ben kenes and we have two new political guest with us we have Angela Richardson who is a one of these millions of Deputy chair people Deputy chairman of the conservative party and MP for Gilford we have Sarah Jones with us as well welcome to you Shadow Minister for industry and decarbonization and labor MP for cyon Central Gareth Knight and Scarlet McGuire still with us as well um where should we start let’s start with you sah we we’ve just been talking to Alison McGovern Andrew gave her a right all grilling so be be very care be very careful um everyone imagines that Labor’s going to have a good night now that’s quite dangerous isn’t it from an expectation management point of view well I think um don’t give me too much of a grilling because I’ve been handing out leaflet since 7:30 this morning so uh you never know what might come out but I think we can be proud of the races that we’ve won the the the campaigns that we’ve fought and I think we will do well um the key as I think lots of people have said is to look at where our votes are increasing and whether they’re in the right places for us to be on track for a general election and the key um marker will be the Blackpool result because that is where you’ve got K Dharma against rishy sunak uh and we’ll see what the results will be there and I was in Blackpool on Tuesday and I have to say it was very positive uh indeed I mean that was one day so you know who can say but people were opening the door and they were saying I’m voting for Chris they were I talked to an old lady who was saying and her daughter and they were saying well we’ve always voted conservative but this year we’re going to give Chris a chance and there there was a lot of that what’s driving that do you think is it sort of some individual policy thing is it a general sense that the Tories are incompetent they don’t like Richi sunac what what do you think the main driver of this is I think there’s a few things I think people are voting for change they they want something different we’ve had the conservatives for 14 years they they’re Fed Up of that they feel let down uh I think the the campaign in Blackpool has been First Rate uh so the the number of people that have been on the door step the conversations we’ve been having the way people have heard from us you know time and time again and we’ve had useful conversations about the plan that we have in terms of the country and obviously Chris is a local uh born in Blackpool man which which would be the first uh MP I think for something like 60 years who’s who’s from Blackpool so I think that has resonated with people as well and Angela um Andrew was saying earlier on before you both arrived how key it’s going to be to see how how the Reform Party do here how closely are the conservatives looking at the reform vote well I think um if you look at reform and uh what it’s offering it’s very similar to what the conservatives are already offering and I think that for reform voters there um the the Reform Party is not going to give them what they want it would give them a labor MP and it would um and take those voters basically back to square one uh where they’ have higher taxes um they won’t have the border control that they want and the prime minister is making progress on all of well they say they’ be tougher on borders particularly on boats well I I I think they they won’t see that because if they have a a labor prime minister because what we’re really talking about is what’s going to happen when the general election comes and if you have a a labor prime minister he’s not going to um be tough on borders he’s going to unwind the Rwanda plan and uh and he’s going to uh Backtrack on these Asylum claims and give them amnesty given all of that what I’m interested in is why in that case the latest poll showing the difference between you and reform UK is just three points now I mean Richard Ty told us a little while ago that you thought by this summer you’d be level pegging with reform and I thought that was ridiculous at the time but that’s the way it’s going and if that happens it’s going to be catastrophic an existential event for the conservative party well that’s one poll I’ve seen other polls where reform the latest poll uh but reform I think isn’t isn’t offering um an option for the country actually wants when it comes to a general election I think as we get closer to a general election we’ll see the polls tighten as they’ve tightened in general elections in the past do you think some of the people on as it were the hard right of the conservative party have knowingly or otherwise helped fuel reform that constant Rebellion on the right of the Tory party has helped the reform phenomenon happen I’m sure there’s an element of that but I think that those people on the right of the party really ought to be paying attention to what the Prime Minister has been saying in the last couple of weeks um I definitely think there’s an element that the conservative party is turning a corner I’m starting to feel that even in my own constituency on doorsteps talking to people um and speaking to conservative activists I know who um tell me the truth about how they’re feeling um they’re feeling a lot happier um with the party in the last couple of weeks and Sarah Jones you clearly wanted to push back on what Angela said there about because it was so absurd I mean 711 people crossed the channel yesterday that’s the highest this year and the reality is there are tens of thousands there will be a hundred thousand by the end of the year people in hotels in this country waiting because the conservatives have completely failed to deal with them on any level we will uh make sure that claims are assessed and they are returned when they don’t uh reach the uh level of being uh being accepted as Asylum Seekers we will return them and you can pretend or you like that the Rwanda scheme is going to work but it will take 100 years to get uh that 100 thou that that those people who are here now costing us millions millions of pounds every day it would take you years and years and years to get them to Rwanda it’s just a fast and I think people understand this and this is why the more you talk about the Rwanda it’s not affecting the polls at all because people know it’s just a gimmick Sarah can I ask you your policy is to have a returns agreement with France stroke the EU and that’s how you get those returns to happen and meanwhile you’re going to abolish the randil immediately the rander scheme immediately but getting a returns deal could take one or two years maybe even longer what do you do to plug the Gap Well we’ we’d have a thousand extra case workers and a thousand extra people on the in the returns team so a lot of these people that work in the home office are based in C and so I talk to them often and the numbers have been shrunk over the years so we’re just not we’re just not turning around the admin to get people removed so that’s what we need to start doing it’s practical it’s boring it’s not a kind of Rwanda gimmick but it’s actually what you need to do to get the numbers down and then there are people who are failed Asylum Seekers who could be returned much quicker so the government did one good thing which was the Albania deal where they had an arrangement to to send those albanians back home when they hadn’t been accepted for Asylum we can do similar with lot with other countries but that that’s a deterrent and the Randa the Albanian deal um has worked has been really effective there’s been a 90% um decrease in the number of albanians Crossing yes the channel so we should do more of that so we’re going out to Vietnam because the the biggest number of illegal Crossings have been from Vietnamese people and so the government is in talks with Vietnam at the moment um you know these these things go step by step and Rwanda is just one part of that plan but the step by step is more and more and more and more people coming to this country not being dealt with we’ve heard from politicians we’ve heard from pundits we’re now going to hear from our listeners Patrick is in beckingham hi Patrick hi there good evening everyone hope everyone’s having a a nice time getting bit a bit bit argumentative but that’s that’s that’s politics so I just wanted to to make the point um I’m uh you know I have uh you know would have considered myself a conservative you know a few years ago I find myself particularly politically homeless at the moment but I just want to make the case that the the Metro Mayes and I know you’ve you’ve all touched on this um in the program um I really do think that uh the two people that have taken advantage of the role and have really shined and really do deserve to be reelected are the Andes if you like Andy Street and Andy Burnham and I would quite happily if I lived in Manchester I’d quite happily vote for Andy Burnham and obviously if I was in the West Midlands I’d quite happily vote for Andy Street and I really do think that I mean I think there’s no question Andy Burnham is is going to be reelected but I do think Andy Street actually really deserves to be reelected and and that’s politics these days what’s your basis for that I think if you look at um for example over the last few years you look at um both of the roles and both of the Mayors and the way they’ve engaged with the government the way they’ve got on with the day job the investment they’ve brought to their regions the way they’ve championed their their regions has been really impressive and they’ve done it without being divisive they’ve not got down and dirty what they’ve done is they’ve actually showed competence and Leadership and I think actually that’s why both of them I think I’m right in saying have net approval ratings and the current westmin Westminster leaders are actually in the negative approval ratings that’s a really important Point wonderful positive call and I think Ian absolutely right I think Andy Burnham has done a great job in Manchester and I think Andy Street has been a fantastic advocate for Birmingham and the West Midlands I think he’s this is a very positive part of the story and Angela would you accept that maybe the national party has got things to learn from the way that uh Andy Street and Ben hen have run that okay they’re not running a country but they are Regional they’ve clearly done quite well and even if Andy Street doesn’t win tonight he wasn’t expected to win four years ago but he did and for the very reasons I think that Patrick pointed out yeah so it is a really positive call and it’s great to hear um from Patrick I think the difference between Andy Street and um Andy Burnham is that they are Freer to get on with the job I suppose in a way that National politicians in Westminster aren’t uh because uh it’s constant media scrutiny um the the Press with headlines that they’re always battling all the time and I certainly think um the conservative that locally yeah especially in that part of world manest Mery side they’re sticking the local press but I think you know if I’m thinking about the country and the round and how people think about voting for their next government and who’s going to lead that who the prime minister is um it’s a whole different ball game and I think the conservatives have actually done loads of great things achieved a lot of things but haven’t had the space to be able to talk about those and and some of that is largely down to some of the actions of conservative MPS um which has not been helpful to the the conservative party and the Prime Minister oh there’s been a few but this is the right of the party you’re talking about the part that has been on richy Su next back for quite some time no no I’m just talking about ever since I’ve been elected and everything that we’ve gone through as a conservative party we’ve had a lot of by-elections uh and it’s been from various different people um for various different reasons and none of them have been helpful to whoever the Prime Minister was at the time in trying to get that message across of the great things we’ve been delivering uh in difficult circumstances um some interesting news if it’s true this comes from Paul on WhatsApp the entire count has been evacuated in Hull Guild Hall we’ll see if we can get some more on that over the next few minutes the the it’s interesting there are always stories that come from election csil are either sort of some funny but this one looks as if it’s potentially quite serious we’ll hear more from Angela Richardson and from Sarah Jones in just a few moments time here on our election Night Live show it’s 1116 this is LBC really e e e election Night Live on LBC text 8485 at you’re with Ian Dale Sheila fogi Andrew Mah Ben and Scarlett McGuire is here as well say Uncle Tom cob Uncle Tom uh Scarlet you know who we haven’t mentioned we haven’t mentioned the libdems or the greens yet but they have a good they’re fighting a good few seats aren’t they yeah and the local elections are normally good for the libdems and the greens I think some interesting things to watch out for we’ve got a while though especially for Bristol which I think is the main point of interest for the greens uh home to thangam deer’s constituency there have been some polls pointing to her losing her seat at the next election they also been some saying that she’ll keep it she has got a very big majority but um it’d be very interesting to see if greens do well there which is their number one Target Westminster constituency and then in terms of lib Dems they’ll be uh hoping I think to take wokingham which in John redwood’s constituency uh also be looking to um do they already Control Winchester but to put on more votes there uh and in other places as well so there’ll be some labor lib Den battles like in Hull and in stockall and apart from the the win itself or the you know the hoped for win itself in places like wokingham that again is about the general election isn’t it whether they can upturn some serious Tory seats yeah absolutely and I think the lib Dems always a funny one because their um their vote is very concentrated so actually even though they have had what I think has been probably quite an underwhelming performance in Westminster headline voting intention poll sitting on solidly around 10% which is slightly surprising given the sort of anti-conservative sentiment you could see them winning I mean maybe even up to sort 50 seats at a general election it’ll be interesting to see how they do uh here and how that translates to it again lots of caveats about extrapolating from local elections but they’ll be wanting to show they can give the conservatives of bloody nose there’s even rumors that they might be able to do very well in tumbridge Welles now that would certainly spook the conservatives that’s in Tom tart’s constituency no it’s not it’s Greg Clarks I live there sorry I mean it is an interesting situation on that Council because there’s a big group of independent counselors and it’s the lib dams in Coalition with The Independents at the moment and I I did get an interesting email the other day from the labor candidate who Steve pound son Hugo who was trying to report that they were the main challengers in tumbridge Wells now you remember back you’re having a laugh this is the tactics that the Liv Dems often use saying we’re winning here when they’re clearly not but um anyway little bit of local knowledge for you from tumbridge Wells um this this evacuation in Hull has been confirmed by a second source so um it is going on seems rather concerning actually as they say there’s an emergency within the building well I guess there would be you have more on that did you no no sorry I you your pend at me and um Henry Riley is telling us that uh uh conservative sources tell him that labor are expected to win Reddit Council which I think reddit reddit could be the um Gareth just briefly with you that could be the sort of the dagam of 2024 couldn’t not dagum um uh the David Amos seat that he stood in um bason bason that’s it from 1992 it could be um we need to put a big carat on this so we’ve been complaining a little bit about the you the time it’s taking for these counts to come through what I hadn’t realized is that the PCC and meril ballot papers are being verified first so that any Council results and the Blackpool South byelection results any ballot papers that are in the wrong box can be taken out of the PCC and meril boxes and to ensure that they’re counted for the council and election results you with us at the back if they did it the other way around they could end up finding ballot papers in the wrong boxes in two days time as a result everything is going slowly because they’re having to open every Ballot Box and verify all the ballot boxes before they get onto the ones that were going to be getting tonight and that’s the reason why we’ve had nothing from places like sundland and Newcastle where we’d be expecting it um this came about because a lot of journalists and people on Twitter are following Blackpool and all of them are commenting that no one’s actually seen a ballot paper for the byelection yet it’s all just we we have a result from Sunderland labor have gained a w from the conservatives they’re still counting so sah James will very happy at that um let’s in fact go through uh uh some of our reporters now again and see what they’ve got to tell us Chris Chambers is lbc’s Northwest correspondent he joins us from the count at Blackpool South the Blackpool South byelection um Chris how’s the count progressing evening yes it’s going well there’s a hive of activities you might be able to see behind me we are looking for a new MP here Scott Benton the former conservative MP who resigned back in March having been caught up in a lobbying Scandal that opened the way uh for this byelection tonight and labor the overwhelming favorites Chris Webb the candidate for labor who’s a local lad he’s been out campaigning with his newborn baby as well showing what family man he is and really sort of vowing to tackle things like crime and the big issues around labor he has competition of course from the conservatives who had only a a narrow majority when they won the seat back in 2019 a red wall seat of course but you know they took that back in 2019 with Scott benon David Jones is the candidate for the conservatives here and he very much hoping to maintain that position very much in favor of recom Blackpool airport and having flights go from there again one of his big policies reform they’re hoping that they could land a glove or two on things that happen here maybe push themselves into second position Mark butcher is the candidate for them another local fell he is admin that he wants to make a difference he’s a businessman not a politician but believes he can come in and do a better job than the politician so it’ll be very interesting to see what happens here we expect it to come in between 2:00 and 5:00 Let’s cross now to my colleague Alan cinski who’s in hary poool thanks Chris well since I last spoke about an hour or so ago I’ve just been speaking to one of the labor staff members who was saying in typical staffer fashion that it’s very much too early to despite all the boxes now being emptied on the tables below me but he did as he left give that wink as staffers tend to do and also said things are looking pretty good and that his conservative to use the word conservative estimate was that they could take four of the councelor seats here tonight which would see a labor gain overall control of this Council from the conservative and independent Alliance and it would see Brenda Harrison become the very first female Council leader for heartley pool but all the chitchat really from going around speaking to the other party Representatives here is about that T’s Valley mayor election of course we be back here for the count tomorrow looking at the position of Ben H and how that’s going to go will have a much wider ramifications than the burrow Council here what it will mean for the Prime Minister if he was to lose that in a massive H slide from the results we had just a few years back but in terms of the times looking at we’re still probably looking around half one maybe later actually I was being told as well so maybe 2:00 here for the first Wards to start being declared and let’s find out what the situation is in farum with lbc’s emore I’m sensing it could be quite an interesting night here in Far actually just going round the room um some edgy faces I think some potentially worried faces here uh potential libdem gains I think uh from the conservatives the Tor is looking to really hold on here in Farah and one of the 18 councils in the UK up for reelection this time run by the Tories uh and the count really well underway here now a hive of activity uh behind me all 32 seats are up for re-election here and as I said the lib Dems posing the biggest threat but they’re going to have to quite the win uh to take it themselves they could push it to no overall control but they’re going to have to have 13 seats uh to take from the Tories to to get that win um we’re predicting kind of a half P three uh reection election result here being told potentially was going to be half four but the saying could be a little bit quicker than that which is great uh I think overall really the the overarching story here in the Southeast the Liv Dems are going to try and make gains they’re going to take from uh Tory seats labor potentially won’t get that much of a looking until tomorrow uh they’re eyeing up some councils Crawley Hastings uh and Worthing trying to keep hold of Worthing in Southampton as well um so what we could see really in in Tory Heartland here is seats turning yellow and uh we’ll find out more as the evening goes on but now to our reporter Henry Riley who’s covering the results across east of England the Midlands and all of those in between I believe a whole sway of seats thank you very much Emma um all the ballots have been have arrived I should say at Colchester in Essex accounting very much underway there harow is going to be one of the main focuses tonight think Essex man Blair gained harow um in 1997 a swing of around 13.6% did very well um in the council elections that preceded that as well so that’s one definitely to keep an eye on you mentioned Reddit earlier on Ian that of course always goes to the election winner at a general election so a key seat to keep an eye on former Home Secretary Jackie Smith was the former MP you spoke earlier to Rachel mlan the uh current MP Deputy chair of the conservative party and I think it’s interesting what she was telling you that it’s very unpredictable um I hope we can stay in control she said some of the key issues were parking speeding roads and potholes so clearly some driver issues going on uh in that particular area of the Midlands but onto that source as well saying Reddit has not been good for us today us being the conservatives from a t Source who was talking with me earlier on saying I expect labor to gain the council they also added that n eaten and bedworth um which is where um another source uh from the conservatives was um campaigning has been particularly tough for the party so keeping an eye on various seats across the east across the west and across the Midlands as well harow currently conservative um Reddit currently conservative but with slim majorities those I think are two of the key ones to keep keep an eye on um if we’re to put this in the context of a general election Ian Philly Anderson Henry thank you very much indeed another result from Sunderland people say how how how how you getting these result I’ve got a friend at the county whatsapping me uh Washington South Ward wait for this one Sarah Jones labor gain from reform excellent who would have thought that well apparently the reform candidate was elected in 2021 as a conservative and he defected to reform in January 2023 and he’s lost today serves him right Angela doesn’t it it’s very instructive Philly Anderson Well Oh controversi short and sweet that wasn’t it yeah out but of course Sunderland I mean everyone thinks of Sunderland as a very safe labor place but over the last 15 10 or 15 years it really hasn’t been has it so that must give you a lot of encouragement yeah of course and I mean you know last year was supposed to be the toys hitting rock bottom when they lost all those Council seats and if they lose more seats this time what does it show about Rishi sunak and his supposed turnaround and I think we we are seeing in in in in labor some interesting movement where in some of the areas where we’ve done the worst in recent times we’re now coming back faster than in other areas so places um you know um like heartley pool which um which I can remember as those of us who were there at the byelection in 2019 it was you know it was pretty pretty awful um but we’re we’re looking that we we might come back and places like redit and thork and and and Rushmore these are all places where we’re hoping to see real gains and it looks like the conservatives will lose hundreds of seats tonight when they should be at this point just before an election making some gains and you should see labor 2021 was a very good year for them wasn’t it in all fairness and a very bad year for labor yes but in the year of a general election you would hope they that they would hope that they would be surging a bit forward but they’re not um and the message is really clear you know across the country in all kinds of different seats that people want change well we’ll get more results from Sunderland and hopefully elsewhere over the course of the next what is it five and a half hours six and a half hours and can I ask you uh Sarah Jones Shadow Minister for industry and decarbonization and we have with us as well just to remind you Angela Richardson deputy chairwoman of the conservative party and MP for Guilford when this is all over in the next few days and you can really take a look at the overall picture same question to both of you really what will the parties be looking at with thinking towards a general election what will you be looking for there in those results well I think it is an unusual set of Elections and very different from a general election where we’d probably have the counting overnight all the results coming in and by the morning we would pretty much much know um where we are um with them coming in in dribs and drabs over the next couple of days I think you could look at tonight and try and make um sort of extrapolations as to how the general but next week and the week after and the week after you will be pouring over what and and I know going back to what scet McGuire was saying earlier these are different types of voting groups in in local elections uh to general elections but the party will have to try and extract some lessons parties will have to try and extract some lessons it will but I think also what in just said before was that 2021 was just a completely different set of Elections than these ones are now I think we just come out of the second lockdown um 60% of people had had their first vaccination um and was a bounce and there was a bit of a bounce um uh and then came party gate yeah and and you know they say week’s a long time in politics well it’s been a very long couple of years um in politics and so much has changed I think somehow out of all of this tonight a narrative will emerge and that will have a dramatic effect on National politics at one end of the scale if Rishi unak has an absolutely terrible night and loses those Mayors and loses 500 Council seats and all the rest of it there will be another leadership challenge however ridiculous I think that will be and the conservatives will be in a terrible condition just end of a general election a really important moment at the other end if he has a very good night and K dama loses in in the Northeast to Jamie drisol and Labour has a bad time in the West Midlands and only picks up much smaller number of seats than they expect then I think we will see Kama coming under pressure from the left of the labor party and people across the conservative press saying you know what he’s not quite the kind of uh solid Cold Stone winner that we thought and you know inevitably the story will be between those two things it won’t be either of those Qui thought from Sarah on that before we go to the headline I mean I think you know Andrew you say if Richie has a good night and holds on to a couple of incumbent mayal seats that everybody uh uh knows is very difficult to challenge because there’s no Shadow mayor you have loads of profile and and you know you could well predict that everybody who’s an existing mayor would would hold on to their seat you could you could predict that quite easily because um U of of of the way that the maral system works East Midlands will be interesting because there’s no incumbency there so I think that will be something that is slightly more similar to a a parliamentary general election kind of turnout and Blackpool of course will be the measure but on any measure if Rishi sunak is losing hundreds of counselors at this point when he tells us all he’s turned the economy around and everything’s great then he’s in real trouble when it comes to the general election losing hundreds of counselors for sure but in a sense you just redefined it to the to be the byelection and one of those mayoral seats both sides are trying to Define it on their own terms in a moment we’ll reveal which of our panel has been accused of being a k starma looky likey it’s 11:35 on LBC let’s get the news headlines from Daryl Jackson well as counting is underway at elections across England and Wales the transport secretaries admitted this evening it’s likely to be a difficult night for the conservatives they’re defending nearly a thousand local Council seats across England labor are also hoping to win in Blackpool South where there’s been a Westminster byelection Lord David Cameron’s visited ke the foreign secretary met with Ukraine’s President Vladimir zalinsky it follows the government’s commitment to spend at least 2.5% of GDP on defense and it looks like John swinny could be unopposed in the race to become Scotland’s next first Minister the snp’s former leader has confirmed he’ll Run for the top job again while rival Kate forb says she’s backing him instead LBC weather scattered showers in the South tonight dry with clear skies in the north and Northwest and a low of 4° Nick Ferrari at breakfast on LBC the Rwanda plan seems to be posing to a reality to the first migrants ear marked for removal were detained yesterday I think we’re being completely gaslighted about this the number of migrants according to government figures last year just shy of 30,000 but the number of actual illegal immigrants is actually quite small join me for an extended local election special we’ll bring you all the political reaction and more importantly take your calls so join me Nick Ferrari at an earlier start time of 6:00 only on LBC listen on your radio and on global player LBC e e e e leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC uh what time is it it is 2339 I think that’s 20 to midnight in old money isn’t it it’s 20 to midnight in old money you’re listening to and watching Sheila fogy and Ian Dale on Election night we have in colleague wise we have Andrew Mah with us until midnight Midnight Cinderella and we have Ben kenes with us until 2 in the morning we want to speak to you we’ve got a long night ahead and we want to speak to you and get your views if you are a political nut like we are and uh staying up all night for if not the results because we’re not going to get Mar many results overnight then at least there’s the fun of discussing the politics of it so do call as ever on 0345 56060 973 you can of course uh use that as well for uh sending a WhatsApp message and you can text on 84850 uh you can uh send a comment to LBC on Alexa I’m very nervous of doing the Alexa thing on air because one time I did it and it was activating people’s alexas everywhere it doesn’t seem to anymore though they seem to have solved that but when that first happened I just kept getting messages saying I love you which was very nice well the first time I ever did it it happened to be my birthday when I said the Alexa thing and the the screen was just inundated with people saying oh happy birthday we we have some lovely listeners don’t we now let’s just fin clear up the mystery of who is the Ki likey on our panel and it is of course Angela Richard I say of course but I only say that because you revealed it on Cross question the other night I did um I’m not sure I revealed it on air I think it was actually was dear Angela I can teach you a few things about this Giza um nothing is sacred um no it’s quite funny um I decided about a year or so ago to stop coloring my hair and Let It Go gray and I think it’s the gray streak um but I was sitting behind the prime minister at um pmqs and um I did catch K’s eye quite a bit going across and I thought poor chap is probably like looking in the mirror um so I hope he doesn’t mind well he obvious he thinks he’s very handsome if he looks in a mirror and looks at you have I retrieved that was very elegant you could be siblings I think could be I just look better in blue than he does I still have to talk about the hair I love the hair thank you very much have hairdresses which is a good thing as a politician because I have no time I can’t spend three hours getting highlights time I’m going to need another few minutes just two more minutes on the hair we’ve got Carla Daniel very part we have a bit of fun and this is nonsense so I’m going to do it we guy mine is very similar to yours would be my guess because all regrowth is silver and what reassures me about your lovely look because I’ve been thinking about doing it myself is you’re not as pale as me but you’ve got blue eyes like me yes and it’s Sparkle it’s working the gray out I’m going to go this back on track because I’m looking at the clock and Andrew Mah has 18 minutes with us okay fair enough and I do want to ask him about something nothing to do with local elections actually but a big I think a really important event today John swinny announcing that he wants to stand for leader of the s SMP Kate forb saying she’s not going to so he will be the new first Minister how significant is this it’s quite a big moment in Scottish politics a new first minister in Scottish terms in effect suddenly a new prime minister there isn’t going to be a contest now now if you look at it first of all John swinny himself he has been one of the kind of background very important figures in the SNP for a very very long time Deputy first Minister for a very long time he joined the SNP when he was all of 15 and he was a a senior party or he was a leading Party official as far back as 1986 so that’s how long he has been embedded in the he’s still younger than both of us he is just about just just um now he’s uh people talk about as I say these senior figures and they use this phrase the men in Gray Kilts and they’re very often thinking of John swinny he was former Finance Minister he was a former education Minister and of course Scottish education has not been a story of unspotted success he himself has faced two votes of no confidence in the Scottish parliament in the past and he’s very very close was very very close to Nicholas sturgeon and humy YF so in a sense he is the continuity candidate and I think the really interesting thing is the SNP has looked at itself and decided that at this stage it’s too fragile to go through a proper leadership contest Kate Forbes is outstandingly in the most charismatic figure there she’s also very young she would have been a really really interesting choice but she is very socially conservative she’s a presbyterian uh a religious woman and on the socially conservative side and of course the SNP has been to use that terrible phrase very woke recently very influenced by the Scottish greens so that leadership contest would have started a big war a big political argument inside the SNP and given what they’ve been through in the last few weeks and months they just decided they were too fragile to go through it and she’s young enough to have another go isn’t she she’s only 34 remember that name she will be Scottish first Minister one day is that decision that she’s made not to run likely to have involved some assurances between them absolutely dirty back room deal chair yes I exactly the kind of stitch up that she herself was protesting about only a couple of days ago nevertheless she would have got commitments uh for John SM that they’re not going to push it too hard on social issues she is more uh Pro business more uh as it were rightwing on the economy than most of them so I imagine that you will not see an SNP uh again trying to raise taxes and again coming down heavy on business she have got a price for this now we have another guest joining it’s carad Dana is with us co-leader of the green party uh Ben you would like to ask I would car thank you for coming in love to have you what would a good night for the green party look like tonight uh well we’re certainly expecting to make gains in these local elections to set the context for you in the last four local elections we have over quadrupled our number of counselors in England and Wales and we’re um hoping to reach a new record by the end this weekend it’s hard to put an exact number on it because there are simply many fewer seats up for election this time around compared to last time um and yeah we made particularly large gains over 200 last year um but we’re we’re currently on around 740 counselors on 168 councils um I’m expecting those numbers to go up and we’re also already in Administration in over 10% of councils in England and Wales and I’m expecting that number to go up too so by the end of the weekend and I do stress the weekend because I think a lot of our Target seats are going to be on late Friday or Saturday I think we might be starting to nudge 800 counselors total and that’ll be a record for us Coler what do you feel you’re picking up most voters from are these disillusion Tores angered by the rowing back on Net Zero or are these left-wing former labor voters who don’t think here st’s offering enough alternative or bit of both maybe it’s really a mix we I think we’re picking up voters from um a variety of different demographics and geography uh and there are some people in places like my home City of Bristol who have been lifelong labor voters but are really disappointed by as you said kiss Dharma making U-turn after u-turn on on climate and and and adopting policies I think many people are disappointed about on Gaza for example um but there are also lifelong conservative voters in uh places like suffk where Adrien and my co-leader is a parliamentary candidate and that’s also where we have uh a overall control and majority on mids suffer Council and there it’s um yeah voters coming to us for a range of reasons our policies on NHS and social Care on um cleaning up the sewage in our Rivers we’re the only party calling for public ownership of the water companies um and actually you might be surprised but even amongst say a retired owner occupier in suffk support for policies like giving councils the power to bring in rent controls is popular because those people have got children or grandchildren who are um looking at frankly never being able to buy a home because rents are going up out of all proportion to incomes so our policies are picking up support across they’re not they’re not picking up that support much support nationally are they it seems to me you got a you know very unpopular government you got a labor party that people are turning towards but not entirely convinced by just yet the the situation feels right right for a sort of surge support for the smaller parties and yet you’re you’re at 8% in the National polls why do you think you’re not picking up more of those sort of alienated voters who are looking for another option well polls aren’t that great at predicting results for smaller parties so I think the proof will be in the pudding at the end of this weekend with the local elections and then of course the general election when it comes uh certainly on doorsteps especially in places like Bristol and suffk where it it’s it’s a two-horse race between greens and labor in Bristol and and greens and conservatives in wave Valley um Adrian’s constituency in those places we’re getting fantastically positive responses on the doorstep people are really excited at the opportunity to vote for a party with some fresh ideas and offering some hope very quickly Andrew how would you assess the green threat to labor I think this is a really interesting question because if you look at the right of politics one of the biggest problems that Rishi sunak has got as we’ve been talking about is reform UK in other words the right is divided between politics and up to now really uh Kama has hasn’t had much of an electoral threat from his left now there are individuals like Jamie Drisco we’ve mentioned in the Northeast there’s George Galloway’s uh Workers Party of Britain you know in small small areas nipping away but there hasn’t really been a left-wing threat to labor and the big question is whether the greens can evolved to be that because a lot of their policies on tax on wealth taxes higher income taxes higher Corporation taxes house building are as it were leftwing alternatives to labor but so far so far that hasn’t really emerged can I just challenge that slightly because the Reform Party only have nine counselors most if not all of whom are def defect eight eight yeah one’s lost just to labor there we go whereas uh the green party has 737 counselors and is running over 10% of councils in England and Wales so I would slightly challenge The Narrative that the aren’t making no Carla they’re way ahead of you in the National polls aren’t they although I will be interested to see if that actually turns into results on Election Day fair point I I should just say that we have invited someone from reform onto the program uh throughout the eight hours but they’ve not been able to provide us with anyone make about what you will it’s 1150 this is LBC a e e e e election Night Live on LBC all right I’ll do it it’s uh 8 minutes to 12 on LBC it’s our election night special with Sheila fogy ielle Andrew Mah and Ben kenes let’s go to a call Harry is in Cambridge Harry what would you like to tell us hi um so basically I’m thinking about the two marit elections um of conservatives defending the mares um mainly Andy Street and Ben hon and I’m thinking is it in a way a win for k or whatever happens because either he’ll win them or if the tor hold on to at least one which they probably will he can just turn around and say oh well you know they’re just winning because they’re completely distancing themselves from rishy sunak from the conservative brand and could rushy sunak feasibly go to one of these places tomorrow if he wins with a straight face and actually say that it’s a conservative Victory A very wise question indeed that is the problem for Rishi sunak these are two people who are very different kinds of concern atives from him and have made that clear however to your point about K sta winning in either case labor has put a lot of effort into the West Midlands labor you know for quite a long time they’ve been working really hard they’re very proud of how efficiently uh focused their they their fight is so they’re going to the seats that they think they can win and if they put all of that effort in and they don’t make any progress in the West Midlands I don’t think it’s a good night for K dama I would disagree with that I mean I think um it’s going to be a good night for labor because we’re going to make significant gains across the country in the places that we need to win in order to win the general election and as I said before black pool will be a big sign I mean in in the teas Valley the mayor there beat labor by 46% last time so even if um we get within 20 points say of winning we we’d be set for a good result on a general election night and in the west mid more on the West Midlands too close to call in terms of the West Midlands we might not make it but we will make progress either way uh and lots of those seats that we need to win uh you know will be will be going in the right direction and and it’s as I say the numbers across the country where we’re increasing our vote most significantly those I think will be the areas that we need to focus on and we need to to to win the general election but it’s a real fight in the West Midlands and it’s a significant fight of course it is and as as the caller very wisely said if if he wins it will be because he’s comp completely distanced himself there’s no name of conservatives on his uh leaflets apart from the very small imprint so he’ll win his own branding 2017 so he’s had green branding since 2017 so that’s under trees May that’s under bis he’s been embarrassed of all of them no I don’t agree because on the ballot paper it still says conservative on the ballot paper and that’s what people are ticking they’re ticking conservative and they’re voting for Andy street because of all the investment he’s brought into the West Midlands all the homes that have been built for people he’s done a fantastic job um as mayor and he deserves my local conservatives right it’s written local conservative on the ballot paper so it’s very clear even on the ballot paper that it’s not the same as and they are local conservatives and as local conservatives they deliver a much better service for residents than labor run C that was happening with labor in 2019 wasn’t it sort of local labor or some derivative of that in some seats because people are embarrassed because of Jeremy Corbin well and we lost the election triumphantly and andant I love that you lose an election triumphantly remember that one car and and now under a change labor party we’re hoping to to win the next election triumphant and well triumphantly would be good but a tool would be fantastic um do you know what I’ve been curious about this week uh because I know that part we haven’t mentioned them yet not much anyway part of these elections these local elections are police and crime Commissioners now we’ve had some horribly violent crime stories this week and we know that it’s a problem in many towns and cities we’ve talked about the impact Mayors have had on our politics has the concept of police and crime commissioner embedded itself yet in our politics the short answer is no and if there’s any part of the current structure which could be Unwound is that I think because you know they’ve come in they haven’t really caught the public imagination they a very interesting idea from the sort of Cameron Osborne era and I think there are what 37 of them um fighting and if people don’t vote in large numbers for them and don’t care they could be they could disappear again two two of our panel are leaving at 12 Andrew Mar and carad denus I want to I’m going to come to Andrew in a moment for a bit of a sum up to see where he things thinks things are going over the rest of the uh evening and indeed morning but uh carad Dena you you said you hope to end this weekend with 800 counselors um you’ve also said in the past to me that you you you want to win well I suppose you want to win 650 MPS but realistically you think you could win four now you seem to be the apart from Brighton where sha Barry’s standing you seem to be the second favorite to win a seat as I understand it but the other two I can’t see the electro arithmetic working because certainly in the suffix seat that you hope to win you’re you’re not in second place there and in the first part of the post system it’s very difficult to come through and win if you aren’t in second place well except Caroline Lucas uh won Brighton Pavilion for the first time with the greens having been in third place uh the time before so it can be done with lots of hard work on the ground which is what Adrian’s been doing in in suffk and Ellie in North herfordshire our two rural seats as I started talking about earlier um polling often isn’t very good at capturing how local parties are doing because we our results are much more affected by the local situation um and so big National polls take to pick up sentiment across the country but don’t pick up the local situation and So based and you know obviously we’re aware that there might be some optimism bias in the conversations we have on doorsteps and we try to adjust for that and even adjusting for that we are seeing really really positive um initial results based on conversations on doorsteps in suffk and herriage that seems to be flying under the radar of polling at the moment Andrew some final Thoughts From You final thoughts I think label will win black cor South I think the Tores will hold on in both teas Valley and the West Midlands I think label will hold on in London but it’ll be narrower and tighter than people had expected and I think the labor party will take somewhere between three and 400 seats from the conservatives possibly even more than that and in all of those results we will struggle to find the narrative there is something missing which none of us know about yet which will set the agenda light some some point tomorrow morning by which time I will be asleep but not before 6: a.m. yeah well Andrew it’s been a pleasure to with you for the last couple of hours and thank you for joining us um our other two guests are I think are you you’re staying at least another hour uh so I think you said you have I’m going you’re going going as well and you’re going we wish you farewell and thank you for being with us over the last hour and a bit uh you’re listening to lbc’s election Night Live show with me Ian Dale and Sheila fogy and Ben kenes we’re staying aren’t we are because we we’ve got we’re sad we got no recip um it’s 12:00 on your radio on global player and play LBC leading Britain’s conversation this is [Music] LBC from Global’s Newsroom at midnight counting is underway in many of the elections that were held yesterday Millions have been casting ballots for local counselors Mayors police Commissioners and even one parliamentary constituency in Blackpool now the local elections are the biggest test of public opinion before the general election expected this year a bad night for the Tories will increase the pressure on rishy sunak labor MP Sarah Jones Shadow Minister for industry and decarbon decarbonization told LBC they’re looking to do well in areas where they’ve not done so well in the past we’re looking that we we might come back and places like redit and thork and and and Rushmore these are all places where we’re hoping to see real gains and it looks like the conservatives will lose hundreds of seats tonight when they should be at this point just before an election making some gains Carla Dena co-leader of the green party told LBC what a good result will look like for them we’re certainly expecting to make gains in these local elections to set the context for you in the last four local elections we have over quadrupled our number of councilors in England and Wales and we’re um hoping to reach a new record by the end of this weekend it’s hard to put an exact number on it because there are simply many fewer seats up for election this time around compared to last time 45 people have been arrested at demonstrations blocking a coach taking Asylum Seekers to the BBY stock home number 10 says the protest near a hotel in pekam in South London were unacceptable a teenager’s been charged with three counts of attempting to cause Grievous bodily harm after three people were injured at a secondary school in Sheffield the 17-year-old boy was arrested on Wednesday following reports of an incident involving a sharp object at Burley Academy a man’s in a life-threatening condition after a stabbing in East London police were called a dager him last night and a 19-year-old was taken to hospital a man’s been arrested and remains in custody and take that say they’re switching five concerts away from Manchester’s Co-op live venue because its ongoing technical issues are a problem next week’s show will now take place at Manchester Arena instead and British band Keen have also postponed their gig on Sunday LBC weather cloudy for most later with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of the sunshine in the far south and Northwest and a high of 21° from Global’s Newsroom for LBC I’m Daryl Jackson this is LBC from Global leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC hello there gives me great pleasure to say good morning to you it means it’s now Beyond midnight we are getting there at Le and Dale myself Sheila fogy and Ben kenes until 2 in the morning uh Ben is with us until 2 we are here until 6 with uh a plethora of guests to introduce to you to discuss the wise and wherefores of the local election results we’re not going to get that many results to be honest while we’re on there but there’s plenty to talk about all the same just to reminder to you that we very much want you involved as well on 0345 6060 973 you can can text as ever on 84850 and L A local election special I should say up until 6:00 a.m. here on LBC and Nick Ferrari will take over after that he will will indeed I’m looking at you now it’s your T are you you want me to do something I think you should May introduce we introduce our new guests we have cabinet minister with us Mark Harper he’s Secretary of State for transport and conservative MP for the forest ofine good friend of the program welcome Mark thanks great fan of the for the many podcast as well in fact he was a star before the many live weren’t you you survived it I was it I was on it and Andrew Fischer former senior policy adviser to Jeremy Corbin who wrote the 2017 and 2019 labor manifestos and he’s a columnist for the I newspaper welcome Andrew and we have analy dods with us as well uh chair of the labor party and MP for Oxford East welcome back to you Analise thank you it’s good to be here now we are two hours and four minutes into the program and I can safely say that I’ve only seen two Ward results so far both in Sunderland both labor gains Hara for an dods there um anything else Gareth Knight that you can report to now he’s shaking his head it’s really really slow that all these multiple elections are making everything much slower because they’re having to open all the ballot boxes to check that none have gone in the wrong boxes because if they don’t do that it’ll just cause even more delays later on so we’re having to even places like southernland Newcastle but normally if have long packed up and gone to bed by now even they’ve barely barely started and and just so people you said earlier on 2,660 seats being contested in total yes and about 630 ODD will come through overnight um but some of those will be quite interesting and we’ll go into those a little bit later on as they start to come in well actually I’m hearing uh that harow is quite close which Mark Harper is of Interest well it’s of interest to all of us but you you’ve already said uh tonight that you you know you’re not expecting as a party to do as well as you did in 21 harow quite to to lose that would that be a kind of indicator of what you’re talking about the way if you do if you do well look obviously haven’t seen any results yet so got to be a bit careful talking about things but look what I said earlier I think was fair 2021 which is when most of the seats and mayor ales that are being and police and crime commission elections that are being elected tonight were last done I think it’s fair to say acknowledged by independent experts not not just by what we’ve said there was a vaccine bounce we did extraordinarily well it was our was our best set of local election results uh since 2008 when we were in uh opposition uh and so that’s a very high base and obviously when you do all these programs you compare tonight with the last time the seats were fought so it’s just a very high Baseline with an these are unusual set of election results because of that vaccine bounds but also as youve said earlier there’s results being spread over three days so you know we’re not going to really have a proper comprehensive picture about what’s happened actually until Saturday what would be a good result for the conservatives this I me let’s say this weekend I mean what do you think you could legitimately look into a camera and say well we’ve done a lot better than everybody said we were going to do well they’re going to be tough because we got that very high Baseline and you know in government uh voters often use local elections they shouldn’t because they should be about you know conservative councils deliver better services for lower council tax that’s what people should be voting on but they often use it to to send a message to the government um so so they’re often very difficult so look we haven’t we haven’t got into predicting you know it’s for it’s for column lists and and forecasters start picking numbers that’s your job um we we go out and fight for every vote and we’ll we’ll see what happens but you know we’ve got some really good we’ve got some good Mayors out there who’ve been uh campaigning hard by the way just to pick up on your previous discussion I was in uh Ben Hon’s patch uh last week delivering leaflets and I can tell you his leaflets have conservatives all over them I was putting them through doors in Darlington um and so actually yes uh you know if we held that se R un could absolutely go to it is that really a good use of a cabinet Minister’s time to deliver leaflets in local elections well it wasn’t the only thing I was doing I was making an announcement about um some important government policy about our decarbonization of visiting a visiting a really important local employer I was visiting the new Darlington train station where we’re investing a huge amount of money to deliver better rail services to the people that live there with the Fantastic local Member of Parliament Peter Gib uh and I was going out campaigning so I was doing multitasking that’s what you’re trying to say okay I I corrected yeah but no no Ben Haron is a conservative he’s been campaigning as a conservative and he’s delivering uh he he charges no council tax precept to his residents and he’s been delivering day in and day out for those residents in an area no council tax how does that work he doesn’t charge a precept on top of the on top of the council tax that goes to the councils to run his well how does he run it then uh he runs a very sensible commercial operation he doesn’t charge any precepts on top unlike in London where Sadi Khan takes £470 off everybody um and Ben hin represents an area which for for many years decades was represented by labor MPS who took voters for granted and that’s why people value a hardworking mayor who delivers for the people of that area I can sense a certain bristling from this side of the studio and his dos well I’m sorry there’s a huge amount that I would contest in in what’s just been said and I think ultimately what going to see over the next couple of days is actually that that call for change that is so clear you know I’ve seen it in Darlington I’ve seen it in harlo when I’ve been speaking to people they’re not grateful to the conservatives for the kind of amazing uh dealing that they’ve uh achieved with the cost of living for example or around Public Services actually what they were seeing to me is they don’t see a conservative government that has dealt with any of those issues things have got worse for them they’ve got less money in their pocket the NHS is on its knees locally and up and down the country and they want change and I think we’re going to see actually when it comes to local Council uh election results that in those areas where labor needs to move forward you will be seeing labor counselors being elected but of course the one contest where there’s no question about whether Rishi sunak candidate is explicit about being a conservative is that parliamentary by elction that we have tonight black pool South so you’ve got a really clear rishy sunak backed conservative who’s standing against labor you’ve got that in a seat where I think it’s existed for 78 years 57 of those years actually it’s been represented by a conservative course 2019 they’ve got almost 50% of the vote I think that Blackpool South by election is going to be quite a clear indicator of whether people feel that the conservatives are delivering this amazing uh situation for people in their families actually the reality is very very hard for lots of people in our country they want change Scarlet Maguire this the Blackpool South byelection we’ve had some momentous byelections over the last couple of years do you think this will give us any more indication of what might happen at the election than any of the others might have I actually think it could and you’re right we’ve actually been a bit spoiled for um quite a huge by-election losses especially um for the conservatives there a massive massive swings going to labor sort of 20 point plus getting actually a bit too used to them I think because they are each individual one of them extraordinary uh black pool sou think be really interesting I think reform should be looking to get about 20% of the vote here if their National polling is to hold up there is talk they might be able to come second and put the conservatives into third that would be very bad news for Rishi sunak I think it would be quite interesting look you Kip were doing much better in by elections than reform have that might well be because reform uh voters are lower propensity we just simply won’t know whether they’ll actually turn out until a general election uh but if you think about some of the performances ukit were putting in before they managed to end up on around 13% of the vote in the 2015 general election you’re seeing you know 30% 50% 60% even in byelection results so I think reform really need to be showing doing very good showing here and this is in fact where they’ve been concentrating most of their efforts because they’re only Fielding candidates in 12% of the seats in locals so they really really do I think need to be doing well here Mark Harper how much do you fear reform well look let me just come back first I will answer that question but let me just come back on something Al said I know she very quickly moved off of um the Northeast the the teas Valley meraly and quickly started talking about councils she said the the labor Shadow cabinet has been throwing uh visits uh at that marot and and that’s the sort of area which lay has to win uh if either the polls are to be believed or if they’re serious about winning a general election it’s an area which was represented by the labor party for that’s true isn’t it and I no in terms of the Parliamentary seats yes I’m more than happy to talk about the records I’m very happy to talk about it and I’m happy to talk about the fact that the swing that’s required there of course would be 23% that’s absolutely enormous but also I’m happy to talk about the fact that if Ben hchen doesn’t win with 22% then actually we’re not going to see those seats staying in conservative hands we’re going to see them switching into labor hands at the next general election and we’ve got really hardworking Labor candidates there Lola makavo for example in Darlington such a powerful voice H for that area someone who’s already actually taking a huge amount of action for her constituents if they are going to be constituents in the future as their MP and I think that voice is being articulated pretty clearly at the moment we’ll see that in the general election Mark so on the boardback reform look I I don’t know what they’re going to do tonight but but the position is very clear um if reform score well at all all that they’re going to do is deliver uh labor um labor victories and for those voters that are voting for reform who want to see a progress on immigration uh and lower taxes they’re going to get exactly the opposite so my argument would be if you want to see um us deal with immigration we’re making progress on that we’ve passed the Rwanda legislation labor we know has said it’s going to junk that even if it’s working um labor Labor’s we can all see what Labor’s going to do they’re going to have an amnesty for they not going to be through this let’s concentrate on let’s concentrate the reality is sorry go the reality is Mark for whatever reason you might not understand it a lot of people who should be voting conservative who have voted conservative don’t think your part is conservative enough right now well look the general election is a choice between two parties uh there are only two people that are going to be prime minister after the general election rishy sunak and and K and anyone who is thinking about voting reform has to just say to themselves who do you want to win if you care about taking serious steps to deal with uh illegal migrants and people crossing the channel who you don’t think should be here who don’t have a claim it’s clear that richy t the only person even trying trying to deal with that the labor party doesn’t even want to deal with it and even and as I said even if the Rwanda scheme is working which I think it will they’ll scrap it why why do you think they’ve turned away from your party in the first place well look it we we’ve had some very difficult period I mentioned the the pandemic we’ve dealt with a pandemic we’ve got a war in Europe which drove up Energy prices it has been difficult for people but we have since the Prime Minister took over driven down inflation we’ve had two cuts and lash Insurance we’ve put money back in people’s pockets we’ve had I think nine months now of real terms wages growth but it takes time for that to feed through to people and as I said elections are choices uh opinion polls are snapshot not predictions and as we get closer to the election people have to make a choice about which party they want to win and which person they want to be prime minister and that will be the contest that that we have later this year Andrew Fischer you wanted to comment on what Mark Harper said there about the boats and then we can move on to perhaps the labor green dichotomy you know talking about reform you say you know these people who come across who haven’t got a claim you don’t know they haven’t got a claim until they get here and you process them properly that the the fact of the illegal migration act basically makes it illegal for anybody to come here and claim Asylum and that’s rid ridiculous we are the sixth richest country in the world and we’re Shing our responsibilities trying to send people to a dictatorship in Africa which is one of the poorest countries in the world and saying no it’s all your problem you have them you take them and bribing basically another country to be our penal colony I think it’s a disgusting policy and you should be ashamed of yourself for even advocating well no I I completely disagree first of all all of those people that are coming in small boats none of them are coming from a dangerous country they’re all no no no they’re all countri Syria and Afghanistan they’re all coming from France they’re in a safe how do you think they got to France they’re in yeah but they’re in a didn’t teleport from Afghanistan to France they came through all in a of Asia Europe safe country in which they can claim as the rest of the world’s problem not we’ve made it clear we made it clear when we passed the legislation it’s someone else’s responsibility we made it clear that when we’ve dealt with this is global Britain we’ made all your responsibility all these Wars all these Global let get you I’ve heard this we’ve all heard this spill T of no no we made it clear when we pass the legislation once we dealt with the illegal Crossings coming across the channel we would open up more safe and legal routes why you do that and then there wouldn’t be the illegal Crossing like we did for uh Afghanistan no you didn’t did it for a tiny tiny number of Afghanistan we had a huge number of people coming into this country from Ukraine we’ve got a huge number of people coming from Hong Kong where we have a responsibility hundreds of thousands of people hundreds of thousands of people uh so we’ve been very generous to people where we have a claim it is not our job to have millions of people coming millions of people don’t want to come to the UK we need to take a break but Andrew fer I will come back to that question of the greens uh with labor because we took we we spoke at length about reform and the conservatives and we’ll see the degree to which there are comparisons to be made the time is 12:17 this is LBC e e e election Night Live on LBC text 8485 90 minutes past 12 on LBC and we got lots of calls coming which is actually quite unusual on an election L isn’t it because sometimes people just want to listen to what’s going on but lots of there are results coming in it’s actually quite a relief that we have got some calls seeing as there are any more results Gareth there one in Sunland is being confirmed about an hour after you reported it Ian so well that’s marvelous ticket you’re really earning your money tonight aren’t you look look labor for conserv there results right let’s go to Howard who is in Blackpool Howard have you voted in the byelection or are you in the other bit of Blackpool I have back I have voted in South Shaw uh regarding uh the candidates for replacing Scott Benton who unfortunately foolishly made a terrible mistake akake and ruined his career I actually originally voted for Scott and I quite liked him as a person he had a genuine interest in the South Shore a lot of people didn’t like him perhaps because he was a conservative but I liked him as a person but moving on I’m ringing up to say that uh for 40 can you hear me okay yes we can yeah for the last uh 40 odd years since in fact all my voting life I’ve always voted conservative being in self employed and in business I recognize conservative conservatives and what they stand for is a much better Prospect than the labor party who as we well know couldn’t manage anything really especially and I admire Richie sunak for all his efforts and uh when you compare to what he’s doing for the country you know turning it around in these very dire times a recession uh Co or you know trying to get over Co and the things been going on I admire him and you compare him to labor councils let’s say Birmingham for instance who’ve lost what 300 million and claim that the rates the rates are going to go up 21% next year I mean what hope for the country if the labor get in Howard is Sheila here can I can I ask you do do do you want to give Analise dods of Labor an opportunity to respond to what you just said there that labor haven’t got a clue how to deal with business yeah but let me just say before she does uh I’ve got to say that this time after 40 odd years I would never consider voting labor but after so many years I voted for the Reform Party and Mark butcher because because I admire his the way he speaks up and he’s he’s there he’s running a charity or was running a charity before he decided to go for uh um this position and I honestly hope that he wins but I doubt very much he he he’s going to win I did purposely vote for reform to make a point to the conservatives um and I’ll probably go back to the the conservative party in the main election but let us say anything about Labor impress me impressive well more than happy to have to see you know spoken to quite a lot of people who live H in Blackpool including people who run businesses and actually many of them were turning directly to labor from conservatives so you know certainly many of your labors I’m sure who took quite a different decision the reason for that is because actually it’s been labor that’s been leading the argument on what needs to change so that our businesses can Thrive you know labor that’s saying that we get rid of business rates replace them with something that actually suits businesses that are based in VX and mortar labor that said that we’d have an industrial policy that would have Local Economic plans labor that is been setting out how we’d make sure people have more money H in their pockets in the situation we’ve got at the moment and you know harod you talked about turning things around well we’ve had 14 years the conservatives and actually during that time people’s incomes haven’t been going up they haven’t had more money in their pockets this didn’t just start with covid it was there before there was big problems before then and just a last point about councils if if I make how it actually it was really interesting comparing what’s happening now with what happened up to 2010 you know these notices these section 114 notices that get served on local councils if they’ve got those financial problems there were only two of them that were served up until 2010 we’ve had I think nine uh that have been served actually over recent years under the conservatives they even it seems potentially going to be having one in Michael Go’s own Council because of the financial difficulties they’ve got in that’s because you’ve had mismanagement from the conservatives on this just as on so many other issues so how I would say take another look at Labor if you take a look at what we’re actually proposing for the country I think you’ll see that we’ve got much more that’s positive to say and ultimately to deliver if we’re given that chance to serve how laboring Council haven’t done anything for the town I don’t believe they seriously haven’t it’s down to the conservatives that we’ve got so many so much going on in Blackpool I mean I think they’ve invested they’re investing 90 million in the town and there’s still more to come they’ve done they’ve actually helped get the party political conferences back to the new Conference Center that they built alongside the Winter Gardens I admire um I I’ve been in business for 40 odd years and you said that you you the businesses in Blackpool are voting for labor no I’m sorry I doubt that very much the businesses in Blackpool a lot of them are failing because of Labor uh labor um the labor Council the labor council is is hindering them the um B needs reform what I Howard what I don’t get is you you spent half of this conversation praising the conservatives and then said you didn’t vote for them I mean what how hypocritical is that I’m making a statement my vote went to reform was for the person was for the mark Butcher and and the way I like the way he goes about his business and the way he talks I am a a Richie sunak fan and I have been a conservative voter my entire life I’m making a statement and unfortunately that’s I hope it’s not true but I think labor are going to get in and I actually went to see uh the labor candidate and I left my phone number for him to call me cuz I have businesses in his Southshore area and he never even got back to me and I went to his office left my phone maybe all right Howard thank you very much indeed for that I have I have another result here um in leester there’s been a County Council byelection where the lib Dems have gained the Burbage Ward uh on a very massive swing actually 14% from the conservatives um so that that’s uh in hinley uh Bosworth now I don’t know what we read into that but the libs would be delighted to because they’re quite strong in that area they obviously they don’t have the parliamentary seat but they’ve got quite a few counselors I think there Gareth yes and there’s also results coming in from sundland more results now confirmed results and what I’m picking up is that uh the conservatives are really suffering at the hands of Reform labor is actually only making quite modest um gains on their on their number of votes um but the conservative vote is is collapsing in favor of Reform and labor are now gaining seats in sundland from them you know it’s it’s bad for them I mean is an area that has seen incremental conservative gains over the last 15 years until 2022 labor started to reverse things but um it does look like reform is actually now having a real impact in what some people I don’t like the term would call the red wall seats um those those northern areas that swung to the conservatives particularly when Boris was the leader um and reform is really hurting them and and it’s and it’s reform gains at the expense of the conservatives without labor need to do very much at all and this could be big trouble for them um Scarlet yeah I mean it’s just it’s actually quite extraordinary looking at it so reform aren’t standing in all the wards in sundland I mentioned before they’re not actually standing in many uh many seats across the country uh but the ones they are standing I mean all but one of them so far they’ve beat the conservatives to either second or third place uh the one where they haven’t it’s neck and neck and you’re seeing them get to up to like 30% share of the vote so I mean it is reformar putting in I think a stronger performance potentially than expected there and looks like bad news very very early days but just in these early Wards in Sunderland it’s reform doing damage to the conservatives Andrew Fisher just before we go to the news headlines at 12:30 and we’ll take more calls thanks to Howard in Blackpool we’ll hear from will in Molton in North Yorkshire after the headlines but before we go to them just a couple of thoughts from you there on certainly the green threat to labor but also what we were Hearing in that exchange between Howard and Analise dos has labor under starma done enough to convince business more broadly I mean how it is one individual obviously yeah um I mean firstly on the greens I think there are a number of seats uh over the next couple of days depending on when the counts are where the greens are going to clearly pose a threat um in stra in Bristol in Norwich I think they they are going to make gains I’d be surprised if they don’t and we’ve seen you know in a number of areas there where labor councilors have resigned over Gaza and things like that where does that vote go some of that will go to Independence some of it will go to greens that’s clearly a kind of you know it’s very much the sub lot of tonight I think but it is uh something there but it would be interesting to see where there are concentrations of greens picking up things not odd one and twos but if they do gain five or six seats does that give them a base to then have a sort of springboard onto the Parliamentary seats and I think that’s an interesting thing I mean realistically the greens did very well I think they had their best general election in 2015 when labor you know perhaps wasn’t as bold against austerity as a lot of Labor members would have wanted as well at the time um and then their vote was suppressed under Jeremy Corbin because the party moved to the left and it kind of didn’t give them room on that now they’ve kind of found a bit of a niche you know and labor sort of diluting its environmental package as well there just turbo boo I must say for what it’s worth on the phone inss that I do when we talk about people feeling politically homeless a lot of Labor people talk about the green parties in the analy uses but I would say actually when it comes to the environment what labor set out is absolutely critical me not not just for the environment but actually for jobs in our country as well I mean saying that we’re determined to decarbonize the energy system by 2030 there’s no other party that’s saying that in Western Europe also saying that we’d set up GB energy which would be a publicly owned company which the public very strongly supports you know that is something that will deliver that change it’s all very well people kind of talking about it you know un lecturing is fund because you borrow don’t you it’s fairly obvious but and I think Labor’s plan for 28 billion of borrowing to meet that 2030 thing the issue is you said that they junk and exactly this is exactly my thank you for preempting me but they you’ve wound that down and you’re still saying we’re going to meet that Target I mean to me that just doesn’t make sense 2030 is massively ambitious by the way we had 2030 in the last Manifesto with respect I worked on which I so I know where we’re going with this it is really hard to achieve even in good Economic Times when you prioritize it and you put lots of money behind it now you’ve wound the money back and are saying well the actually just leave lots of private investment to do it no I’m sorry I’m sorry we’ve set out very detailed plans on this actually and you know i’ really encourage you to have a look in terms of The Sovereign wealth fund how we would set that out in terms of the industrial Str there I agree with you there the funding behind it that worries me what I find when I talk again with businesses well when I talk again with businesses that are switched on to this who are wanting to invest in the UK and the green economy wanting to provide those jobs here but put off because they’ve had no leadership from government going backwards under the no I’m not having that I’ve delivered my we have delivered the zero emission vehicle mandate what did you do around that you put it back year no no I just I my my department has legislated this year to implement the zero emission vehicle mandate which legislates for that move to zero emission cars you were criticized by Automotive companies forting date of the target all agreed hammered that this is ridiculous not having this I’m not having people speak over each other all the time and you two have been doing that particularly you analyst I’m afraid all the time so can we just have some peace and quiet fine so I was answering a question well I’ve made my point I’m not having it through the rest of the program I’m sure Sheila isn’t so we so we’ve delivered the zero emission vehicle mandate we’re just in the process of setting out our response on legislating for sustainable aviation fuel to decarbonize Aviation we are literally global leaders on this stuff we’re moving faster than anybody else so trying to pretend we’re not doing it we’ve set up detailed plans and I don’t very often do this and I hope it doesn’t damage your reputation Andrew but I agree with what Andrew said you’re trying to say you’re going to deliver things you’ve got no credible way of paying for it everyone knows what that happens it means you borrow money and you put up people’s taxes all right we’ll leave that there for now in a moment after the news our reporter Emma core has been speaking to sella braan in faram and we’ll hear some of the things that she’d had to say about that voluntary flight to Rwanda that we heard about this week well well you know it’s an issue on people’s minds on LBC and LBC news this is LBC election Night Live with Sheila fogy iandale Ben kentish and our guests of course as well and we’ll take your calls on 0345 6060 973 it’s 12:32 voting is over and Counting is underway in many of the elections held yesterday Millions have been casting ballots for local counselors Mayors and police Commissioners the conservatives know they’re in for a difficult night they’re defending nearly 1,000 C seats in England 45 people have been arrested trying to block a coach taking Asylum Seekers from a hotel in South London to the Biby stock Home barge the vehicle eventually left with no one on board and it looks like John swinny could be un opposed in the race to become Scotland’s next first Minister the snp’s former leader has confirmed he’ll Run for the top job again while rival Kate forb says she’s backing him instead LBC weather cloudy for most later with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of the sunshine in the far south and Northwest and a high of 21° this is LBC e e leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC as promised let’s go to farum uh we’ll talk more about the Electoral elements of farum in a moment but Emma core lbc’s reporter um is there at the currently conservative held Council you never know if things could change tonight Emma has been speaking to Suella braan here’s what she had to say it’s too early to speculate I as I said I I’m not going to make any predictions at the moment they haven’t even confirmed the turnout we haven’t even received all the ballot papers yet it is far too early to jump the gun with any kind of assumption so uh maybe speak to me in a few hours thank you and just as former home secet just to get your thoughts about um we’ve had this first Asylum Seeker that’s been deported to to Rwanda taken to Rwanda I mean what are your thoughts on on that policy and the fact that that’s happened now well obviously the principle of the policy is one that I wholeheartedly support we need to have effective deterrence and that is in the form of stopping the people smuggling gangs crossing the channel exploiting vulnerable people sometimes killing them because uh we’ve seen tragically fatalities on the channel by people with people who were trying uh and struggling to get to the United Kingdom putting their lives the lives of their children at risk that is so inhumane and it needs to stop the only way it will stop is if people realize that that Journey will not lead them to a life in the UK and that they will be relocated to Rwanda so I agree wholeheartedly with the principle I think the flight that we saw this week again I I don’t think uh we should be uh you know claiming uh that the policy has been a success just on the B of this flight this person who was on the flight was paid £3,000 he volunteered to go to Rwanda um and was not someone who came here on a small boat so it’s not really relevant if I’m honest to the the the viability of the policy I had disagreements with the Prime Minister I I I don’t think we’re going to get the effec of deterrence under the legislation that we’ve just passed um but I do think there may well be the prospect of the odd flight or so with a small number of people on them uh that’s not going to be deterrence and that’s not going to stop the boats that’s what we promised the BR Peach people the way we’re going to stop the boats is by leaving the European convention on human rights and doing it now so that we actually exclude the um obstructive uh human rights um laws that are stopping the government from controlling our borders that’s what I’ve been arguing for for quite some time and just finally we saw lots of students blocking or a group of people today blocking a coach in London taking seing uh Asylum Seekers to the baby stock home lots of police were involved I mean I’m sure you’ve seen the footage I mean what are your thoughts on that well I don’t know too much of the facts I’ve been on the doorstep pretty much all day today uh talking to voters um about these elections I’ve only seen a few snapshots but if it is the case that uh protesters have stopped the home office from carrying out its legitimate functions I.E managing um Asylum Seekers or illegal migrants and you know trying to relocate them to more suitable or different accommodation that’s totally unacceptable those protesters should be ashamed of themselves and they should be uh uh feeling the full force of the law if they’ve broken the law that’s to braan former Home Secretary speaking to our reporter Emma core in farum we’ll get on to the politics of faram and and that vote in just a second Mark Harper just a response there on what SEL Braven was saying about that voluntary flight that went this week she’s she’s not impressed well it it it was a good thing to do um get somebody to go voluntarily but it’s not it’s not the main um part of the policy which we’ve just successfully taken through Parliament and the home office will start now implementing and and the point of it and the bit I I will um pick up which I agree with her on there is the point of it is to have a deterrent to stop people making those dangerous Journeys across uh the channel and stop putting their lives at risk they’re coming from a safe country country those Crossings are dangerous The Crossings are organized by organized criminal gangs they put people in things that are barely boats I mean they’re hardly seaworthy uh and they put to see and put their lives at risk we don’t want people doing that um and we want and we want to stop organized criminal gangs profiting from and they’ve charged every single person who does that thousands of pounds that money then gets recycled into other criminality um and we want that to stop we’re working closely with the French we’re doing uh a load of stuff with the National Crime agency already working with our partners um but we need to do more and you have to break the business model uh and you do that by demonstrating someone £3,000 to go to Rwanda doing and achieving any of that well no it look we we’ve had voluntary returns for years when I was immigration Minister we used to remove about 40,000 people a year about 20,000 of them were voluntary and 20,000 were were were did you pay them all 3,000 to go no but we did used to pay for the cost of them going and we often used to give them some money uh to get them started when they return back to their when we talked about this on my program earlier in the week than having them here my my listeners thought they must have misheard me when I said that £3,000 of their money was being given to somebody to go to Rwanda they thought I must have made that up and I clearly didn’t make it up and then when you see that video the home office video that was released yesterday I purely coincidentally the day before the local elections obviously I mean did that not make you feel a bit queasy well look let me tell with two points if somebody’s here and then they don’t have a an asylum claim and they don’t have the right to be here uh and we’re having to bear the cost of doing that actually sometimes the cheapest thing to do is to enable them to leave and go somewhere voluntarily that’s often the smart thing to do for the taxpayer because otherwise we’re picking up a huge cost of them being here so you have look at the overall costs of the policy that you’re implementing um on the point of of of getting that flight off the ground I think that’s a good thing these people thinking about coming to the UK they all have phones they’re plugged into social media they see what’s going on and it’s about having a deterrent effect we just don’t want people making those dangerous Journeys across the channel and putting thousands of pounds into the hands of organized criminal gangs because that’s what they are all right it behoves me to ask annaise a response on that I mean you know historically over the last decade not just thinking about this conservative government or in fact just British governments historically over the last decade or more there has been eu-wide failure really to properly come together and cooperate and have a cohesive response to this isn’t the truth that that is what is going to be required and I know that your party is talking about better connection with with EU countries a deal with the EU about returns that kind of thing but isn’t the isn’t the whole thing really a political failure for a decade or more to really come together and tackle it because it can’t be tackled in little silos can it well it does need a serious plan and I’m afraid that the kind of costly con that we have with the Rwanda scheme is is just not a serious plan I mean if you look for example at the number of people uh who came in yesterday actually that’s double the number of people who’d be covered in a whole year by the Rwanda scheme so we need to talk about what’s actually going to make a difference here it is about having those agreements with other countries labor set that out it’s about then terbo charging those measures Mark talked about some of the things the government has started to do a little bit you know we’ve said actually for many months that we should have a proper joint police cell that’s working on smashing these criminal gangs we said they shouldn’t be able to advertise what they’re doing on social media government didn’t back that unfortunately we said that we need to have a thousand more case workers who are actually processing these claims so that if people don’t have the right to be here then they should be not here they should actually not be still in hotels they should be sent back but if they do have a right to be here then of course okay they they should stay here under our law and I’m afraid that’s just not what we’re seeing from the government not a serious plan let’s leave that issue for now at least and bring Gareth and Scarlet back in to talk about faram the place where we heard so bment speaking um Gareth your thoughts on it what um how it might go and and what a result would mean so for those that don’t know farum is effectively a suburb that goes between Portsmouth and Southampton um I’m sure that that’ll be called that’ll I’ll be told that’s a gross simplification that’s [Music] effec you just ask is it is it a grow simplification I mean no it’s broadly right I suppose but I far I think people in faram would like to see themselves as an independent town that is not you know a kind of the independent republic of faram yeah yeah politically it’s quite independent there has been a lot of new build housing there and it has effectively pretty much connected Portsmouth gosport and Southampton together now it’s a very solid conservative area um it’s actually had the same leader for 25 years until today Shawn Woodward who is a something of a of a great Survivor of local government and he’s retiring today um one of the interesting things about it though is that over his period in office he has racked up enormous majorities in an awful lot of WS and even though the libdems have occasionally had the odd go at faram they’ve never succeeded um their majority there is pretty solid no one at all is predicting that faren would would switch to the libdems or anyone else that matter um and one of the key things as we’ve just heard soel braan is the MP for the vast majority of that District at the moment so if you take the view that soel Bran’s brand of conservative politics is what the conservative government should be following then you would have thought that her personal support would would firm up a conservative vote there um that would be my expectation anyway um but you look at Portsmouth look at gospo look at Southampton these are all areas where 20 or 30 years ago would have said we’re fairly safe conservative and they’re certainly not um they are vulnerable in Hampshire to the lib DS Winchester romsey lots of places that send shivers down the spine of lots of conservatives this day from Bad byelection results so yeah faram no one is expecting that if if faram is not a conservative Council then they might as well all pack up and go home at the end of the night because that is as solid conservative as he can get I think those Southern sh are fascinating because there’s there’s we talk a lot about red wall don’t we I I think the tor’s got real problems in the blue wall seems to me what the government is doing right now is really a core vote strategy might you might disagree it’s tax cuts it’s benefits Cuts it’s migration Cuts designed to please exactly Tory voters in those sorts of areas and right now it doesn’t seem to work well couple of things first of all our strategy is to keep the support of the people that voted for us last time so I think actually allowing people to keep more of their own money I think having a system where you both Provide support to people who have for example the that the work and pension secret set out support for people who have mental health problems to enable them to stay in the workplace which is what they want to do I think is actually very sensible um so I think those policies actually are the ones that our supporters want to see um I mean just picking up you the blue W red wo thing you didn’t come back to me after Gareth and Scarlet had set out what was going on in Sunderland I think what they said actually rather vindicates the point I was making earlier in those seats I mean we haven’t seen all of them but if what I’ve got most of them here and you you just lost a seat to L yes what what what they said was the reform vote was going up the reform wasn’t winning any of those seats all that was happening was you were getting labor gains and that’s what I said earlier so my my my message to people who previously voted conservative and a voted reform or thinking about voting reform is that all you’re going to do is end up with a labor government and that labor government won’t do any of the things that you actually want to deal with and so my argument would be coming back to the conversation you had with I think it was Howard from Blackpool yeah you know Howard said he wants he likes Wishy Su thinks he’s doing a great job he wants a conservative government um he said he wanted to send a message he wanted to send a message but he said he’ go back to voting for us but the point is voting reform just means you get a labor governments if you if you’re like Howard and you think we’re doing a good job you need to vote it might not just be that it might reform I think might hold the key to the signs of a labor majority because if they could if they PLL 15 18 20% in the polls and take away a of votes from conservatives in relatively safe conservative seats that could let either the lib dams or labor in and massively increase the size of any labor majority do do you think that’s a VI viable Theory well that that might be the effect to it so I would say to those people they need to think about what they want if they want a government that actually is going to tackle immigration for example uh they want a conservative government the only way you get one of those is by voting conservative you vote reform you get a labor but then on the other side Andrew you’ve got George Galloway’s party and the greens who could provide a home for leftwing former leftwing labor supporters maybe corins who think well I can’t vote for K sta so I’m going to vote for one of those parties they’ve got an alternative home to go to now as well and that could in some labor marginal seats that could mean the difference between a big labor majority and a small one well I think it’s quite a complex picture I mean I wouldn’t put George Galloway’s party in too much stead I mean George Galloway’s ego trip is about George Galloway and there’s a few Hangers On who will get derisory votes in other seats under that label I’m afraid that’s the reality of it and you know who knows what would have happened in rdale if labor had had a candidate there as well so I’m not convinced that he’s a great threat I think the greens are a rising threat and I think people are more concerned about the environment especially young people and about the social issues that the greens are campaigning on Scarlet yeah Scarlet mcgrier on all of that oh yeah just um firstly I think on Ian I think you’re absolutely right the reform at the moment looked like they will um spoil a lot of the elections for the conservatives and hand seats lib Dems as well as labor we’ve done some analysis now obviously this might change and it’s ongoing but we think they could hand maybe 50 60 seats so um it is I think it would be quite brutal uh and then um there’s been we’re seeing at the moment that there are potentially you know they’re doing very well in sundland they’re not forming as well as ukip did there that actually doesn’t really matter because they are still handing these wars to labor and again they don’t actually need to be polling even 12 13 14% at a general election to do some damage if not quite a lot of damage to the conservatives next time around right we have more to come with our panel uh we are but um I’m trying to work it out my brain can’t do Mass it’s 10 to one it’s 10 to one it’s 10 to one Nick Ferrari at breakfast on LBC the Rwanda plan seems to be posing to a reality to the first migrants ear marked for removal were detained yesterday I think we’re being completely gaslighted about this the number of migrants according to government figures last year just shy of 30,000 but the number of such illegal immigrants is actually quite small join me for an extended local election special we’ll bring you all the political reaction and more importantly take your calls so join me Nick Ferrari at an earlier start time of 6:00 only on LBC listen on your radio and on global player LBC listen e e election Night Live on LBC after one we’ll be joined by the green party Deputy leader Zack palansky and pollster Joe tman we still have with us the pollster Scarlet McGuire we’ll hear from her in just a second and from Andrew Fischer as well who are both leaving us H at one o’ um before that though as promised I’m sorry will for keeping you waiting so long will in Molton in North Yorkshire has called hi hi will uh hi no problem no problem at all um I just want to say uh thank you to Mark Harper for reaffirming uh my decision to quit the conservatives and join reform the sheer arrogance the sheer arrogance to tell people that if you vote for the conservatives you’ll get conservative policies in 2010 when you were elected the net migration was 250,000 it’s now 750,000 in 2010 GDP is a debt ratio was 69% it’s now 101% the idea that you people have delivered greatness for the country and we should be grateful and we should we should not we should fear labor I mean what what they going to do what you’ve done for the past 14 years it’s this arrogance that is being people are turning to reform and hopefully your part will get obliterated because you’ve destroyed the country do you want to respond to that Mark well I well first of all he he got his facts wrong about the GDP for example that’s just not correct secondly it rather misses the point that we had a global pandemic the Prime Minister when he was chanc I think did absolutely the right thing to support tens of thousands of businesses is millions of jobs I Know M it cost 400 billion and it has to be paid for the alternative would have been to let those millions of people lose their jobs and those businesses go to the wall and I think that would have been a terrible thing to do so I think the Prime Minister made the right call on the policy he had the right values to stand up and with people and have their backs and I’ve got lots of businesses in my constituency who feared losing their life’s work and are grateful to the Prime Minister for the support they got during the pandemic but it does have to be paid for and anybody who thinks it doesn’t have to be paid for you that’s just not a serious proposition that has an impact on the public the specifics of um what will said whether they’re right or wrong but the the thrust of what he was saying he surely has a point because traditionally the certainly in your and my adult lifetimes the conservative party has meant small state low taxes and we have the highest tax burden since the second world war for which you will justify for all sorts of different reasons but the fact is it is the highest tax burden um you you have the size the size of the state is expanded exponentially and shows little sign of decreasing and people think well what’s the point of voting for this conservative party when I can vote for what he would say was a real conservative well well no let me just take you to task that the last few fiscal events that we’ve had budgets and Autumn statements we’ve actually been reducing the tax burden I mean you’ve had some Cuts in tax but it hasn’t reduced the overall tax bur so that has actually been reducing the tax burden ordinary Working Families is the first point the SI and on the size of the state Point we’ve laid out a very clear plan for example to reduce the number of civil servants that’s how we’re funding our um pledge to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP which I think is an excellent policy both halves of that so we are laying that out but you can’t ignore the fact Ian well I agree with you and the Prime Minister does as well about having a small sa you can’t ignore the fact that we had a once in a Century Global pandemic which has had a massive impact on both the economy on the way we work it’s had a massive impact for example in marer on transport um you know the rail system pre pandemic was contributing money to the ex cheer it’s now costing us billions of pounds a year because people haven’t returned to traveling on the trains subsidized during the pic as well absolutely on many EMP trains 30 billion pounds during the pandemic to keep the network going and and that all has consequences and you can’t pretend doesn’t before we go to the news at one Keen to ask uh Scarlet again Scarlet McGuire you made an interesting observation about reform and ukip probably about two hours ago now but I think it but I think it Bears repeating actually in the light of of what we’ve just heard there from our caller uh will and from Mark Harper yeah so um I think the the the earlier point I made about reform was that uh so far despite the fact that um reform have been uh you know causing a huge amount increasing amount of damage to conservatives and National voting polls in byelections their performances have been relatively weak they’ve only breached double digits twice in both cases they were quite low double digits whereas ukip in the runup to 2015 election where they walked away with over three million votes and 133% of the national vote share or just under uh they were recording much much bigger uh byelection results so you know 30% 50% even close to 60% uh with Douglas Carwell um and so I think it’ be interesting we’re looking at uh Blackpool South we want to see how strong strong the reform performance will be but the indications we’re getting so far is that they are putting in stronger than expected performance in quite a few Sunderland Wards and costing the conservatives second or third places sometimes even having their vote share go up 30% so it is quite extraordinary people are pointing out that’s still uh worse than ukip performing in similar Wards uh at similar points uh during the ukip again in the run-ups 2015 I think two things to say there reform have much less of a ground game as the first one so it’s potentially not a surprising they’re not doing as well but secondly I think you can see that even if they’re not doing as well as reform there they’re still doing well enough to cost the conservatives quite dearly and I think that’s a pattern we’re going to see repeated I think I’ve seen some people have not seen the final result say that laborers are very confident now about willing winning heart pool that’s something they’re saying and that also the conservatives are feeling wipe out fearing wipe out in Lincoln now in both of those places they’ll be hindered I think and we’ll probably see this born out in the results by reform candidate standing and again taking their vote thank now go on I was going to say Andrew fiser this heartley Paul if that’s right the labor have won that that that was um almost triggered K st’s resignation after they lost the byelection there in 2021 didn’t it that would be quite significant yeah it would and it would be you know this is the last time it was contested so um you know it would be a significant result for labor it’s also part of the teas Valley area so what where does that tell us that that result’s going it’s bad news for Ben howchin if Labor’s done very very well there as it appears might be the case um but also I think um you know Labor’s vote has picked up 2021 was a bad set of results for labor overall um even though that seat had been held in 2019 that was one of the few ones we did hang on to um but yeah I think labor will have a very good night overall it’ll be patchy around the country there’ be lots of you know diverse results because there isn’t a lot of Party Loyalty I mean you’ve heard it from your callers um in One Direction especially but you’re also seeing it on the labor side as well there is a there is a drift away even though Labor’s vote is very much up at the moment there is still a flaking away up in part in different parts of that as well and the lip demms aren’t generating a lot of enthusiasm there is a very much an anti-tory sentiment in the country which is dominating everything and that is splintering to staying at home to going to reform switching to labor to the lib Dems and that’s the biggest problem for the you know I think for the Tories is that they just aren’t convincing people and the reason for that is they’ve made these sort of trumpian promises we’re going to get immigration down we’re going to put it below 100,000 you could trumpan promise reasonable any to deliver at any point you can’t defund universities so you’re entirely on Trump just because you don’t agree with it I’m explaining why it’s trumpian it’s not because I disagree I do disagree with it as it happens but that’s not the problem the problem is the NHS would fall apart our universities would fall apart the social care system would fall apart if we got immigration net migration down below 100,000 and the Tories know it which is why they haven’t delivered it but they’ve built up this demon of too many migrant too many migrants and reform is saying we actually do something about it and people believe it Andrew Fisher thank you Scarlet McGuire many thanks as well for joining us until one o00 we’ll be joined after one by the green party Deputy leader Zack palansky by the poster Joe tman and we will go to Harley pool that we’ve just been discussing here after the news hear from the hores mouth we hear from the horse’s mouth we’ll see what Alan jinsky our reporter has been picking up there but for now the news at a minute past one on your radio on global player and play LBC leading Britain’s conversation this is [Music] LBC from Global’s Newsroom I’m Daryl Jackson counting is underway in elections with the first results showing labor have done enough to retain control of Sunderland Council but they’re hoping to make significant gains in seats across England the conservatives know they’re in for a difficult night they’re defending nearly 1,000 Council seats in England conservative MP Mark Harper Secretary of State for transport told LBC they’ve had a difficult period we’ve dealt with a pandemic we’ve got a war in Europe which drove up Energy prices it has been difficult for people but we have since the Prime Minister took over driven down inflation we’ve had two cuts and lash Insurance we’ve put money back in people’s pockets we’ve had I think nine months now of real terms wages growth but it takes time for that to feed through to people well there’s also a byelection in Blackpool South after conservative MP Scott Benton resigned following a lobbying Scandal chair of the labor party Analise dods told LBC a labor win would be a sign there a seat where I think it’s existed for 78 years 57 of those years actually it’s been represented by a conservative course 2019 they’ve got almost 50% of the vote I think that Blackpool South by elction is going to be quite a clear indicator of whether people feel that the conservatives are delivering this amazing uh situation for people in their families actually the reality is very very hard for people in our countes they want change well also tonight former Home Secretary SEL braan the MP for faram has been at the council count there and speaking to LBC a little earlier she refused to speculate on what might happen if the Tories lose the council it’s too early to speculate I as I said I I’m not going to make any predictions at the moment they haven’t even confirmed the turnout we haven’t even received all the ballot papers yet it is far too early to jump the gun with any kind of assumption so uh maybe speak to me in a few hours in other news dozens of people have been arrested at a protest blocking a coach taking Asylum Seekers to the B stock Home in southeast London there were clashes between protesters and police in pekam earlier the arrests were on suspicion of a variety of offenses including obstructing the highway and assaulting police and John swiy could become Scotland’s first Minister as early as next week as his main rival announced she won’t be running former Finance secretary Kate forb says she won’t put herself forward as candidate to become the next SNP leader it follows the resignation of Hamza USAF on Monday LBC weather cloudy for most later with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of any sunshine in the far south and Northwest today and a high of 21° from Global’s Newsroom for LBC I’m Daryl Jackson this is LBC from Global leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC it’s 4 minutes past one welcome to the program if you’ve just joined us I’m sure you’ve all been here since 10 p.m. and you’re all going to stick with us until 6:00 a.m. I’d like an update from the man with all the popcorn the chap the chapu texted earlier and said he wanted to know exactly what the schedule was for the night so that he could Pace out his popcorn well we haven’t had many results so far so we haven’t provided a huge amount of excitement so far but I don’t know I think I think we’re going to get there and I think the man to provide the excitement is Alan shinski is in heartly pool for us now I’ve never seen Alan before In the Flesh and if you’re watching if you’re watching on global player or you’re watching on the LBC YouTube channel you too can see the handsome features he handsome devil he’s a handsome what’s going on in Harley pool Allan that’s that’s a big buildup for you yes thank you very much I I’ll do the best to provide all the excitement I possibly can well labor are declaring that they’ve won they’ve won here in Harley pool no official declaration has been made and I was hearing just before that announcement came through that it was actually still going to be some time but labor think they’ve done enough they just needed to win four of the council seats here to regain control of this Council that they’ve not had since 2019 just spoken to one of their members here they think they maybe have won as many as seven or eight of those seats this is looking like a very good night for labor here in Harley pool um we’ve got the statement through from labor HQ they see calling this a groundbreaking moment for the party of course given what happened here in 2021 that massive defeat they suffered at the hands of then Boris Johnson’s conservatives they go on to say that sir starmer pledged to change the labor party after that result and today’s result shows that is exactly what has happened I will just say the way I I did go down just as that statement came in from labor HQ to speak to the uh the woman who will become Labor’s Council leader the council leader here in Harley poool Brenda Harrison she did not know that that statement had come through yet so obviously there’s a bit of miscommunication going on there but laborat H very much declaring they have won this we’ll wait for the official results as well expecting them in about an hour or so Alan thank you very much indeed that’s Alan cinski in harle pool analyst dods you you owe Brenda Harrison an apology to you I think Brenda will be pretty happy tonight I think she’ll be very very happy and Jonathan Brash as well who’s Labor’s brilliant candidate H for Harley pool you know I’ve been out and about in Harley pool with both of them and they’ve both been working extremely hard really to make sure people’s voices are heard you know heartly poool is a place where that cost of living crisis is absolutely hammering people all the promises that were made to places like harle poool by the conservatives of course none of them have been delivered and people can see that really clearly and this does show just as was mentioned you know K St was very serious when he said in 2021 he was going to learn from that result put the labor party in the service of working people that’s what he’s done and I think we’re seeing the impact of that in Harley poool tonight we come to Mark Harper on this um issue of leveling up in a moment but let me just uh tell you we’ve got two new guests in the studio Zach palansky is next to me uh Deputy leader of the green party welcome to you Zach thanks and we also have Joe tman pollster with Delta P um Joe welcome to you now I’ve been I’ve been seeing you on the television um over the past couple of hours what now what let’s start with you what what what have you learned over the last what uh three hours since polls closed and what can you predict for the rest of the evening oh goodness uh for the for the rest of the evening we we’re not going to get much in the way of main stories coming through this evening only 30 councils we expect to get results from and so it’s unlikely that we’ll get we’ll get much in the way of major stories from that but having said that uh the individual stories from councils are are producing quite quite a range of a range of interesting things to look at in Sunderland for instance the reform vote uh matching the conservative loss for instance was interesting but you compare that to someone like Burbage in leerer and you see that the conservative uh conservative vote declined by 18% there and there was no reform candidate and so I think the complexities of the individual uh individual contests that are up uh this time around will will produce some some interesting stuff throughout the throughout the night where do I think we will uh will be overall uh at the end of at the end of the next few days I think it’s clearly going to look bad for the conservatives the question is how bad and what actually counts as bad in terms of expectation management I think if the conservatives Lo lose more than 500 individual contests that will be uh an extremely poor performance for them particularly if it’s coupled with losing both of the both of the meril uh contests in uh in tside and and West Midlands but if on the other hand uh they can get the losses down to fewer than 400 for instance if they can get within single digits of sadik Khan in London if they can hold on in the West Midlands and uh the and in tside if they can gain the East Midlands all of these could be uh if not positive story then certainly an indication that it’s perhaps not as bad as some might fear I knew there was a reason I like Joe Twi and it’s because he is the second person on the program tonight to use the word fewer rather than less which is one of my big things you p i told that either is okay grammatically really yeah I have a degree in linguistics and I would beg to differ with well let’s not argue that there we go um Mark Harper coming back to the subject to leveling up which is effectively what anise rais there um is this an issue that there there are some places I mean some some places have got quite a lot of leveling up funds I mean we had Joe Gideon in the other day Stoke on Trend uh and and the caller from Blackpool was saying they’ve had a lot but is some of this money being misdirected when I know you’re a listener to the for the many podcast and you would have heard Jackie Smith say well look in mulvin their local theater has had 20 million pounds in mulvin which is I mean I’ve only been there twice but it’s one of a pretty plush area um is this money going to the right places well there’s there’s there’s a number of things the leveling up fund uh is not just for it’s not just a north south thing it’s for for communities across the country um which need support I’ve had some in in my my constituency one of my uh poorest towns uh investment in new opportunities for one of our local universities uh so actually I think that’s going across the country one of the big things we did in the big decision that the Prime Minister and I took to cancel the second phase of hs2 was to reinvest every penny of that into transport spending in the parts of the country it was going to benefit so actually the bulk of that money is going to the North and the Midlands and we’ve already started spending that money on going to London and London is very well served by public transport well the the money that’s being spent in the south of England is the money that’s being saved from the new way we’re delivering Houston with more involvement with the private sector making that a regeneration project uh building tens of thousands of new homes in London uh and involving the private sector and that money is being spread across the rest of the country uh to improve the quality of our roads but the bulk of it nearly 20 billion p in the north and just under 10 billion p in the Midlands that’s going to transform some of those Midlands for example the Midlands rail Hub going improve the connections between Birmingham and 50 cities in the country that’s a really important project and I was with our fantastic marandy Street a few weeks ago to kick off the first phase of that so I think leveling up is real and making a real difference do you take Anisa’s point though that I mean she says in Harley pool people aren’t seeing any of the benefits from this and there are parts of the country and I don’t know whether Harley pool is one of them but let’s take take that as as red that there are parts of the country that where people aren’t visibly seeing any Improvement and and maybe money has been spent but it’s not that visible to the general public well look couple of things firstly on the point about about The Challenge on cost of living I mean that is exactly why people living in Harley pool as with everywhere else will have had reductions in their National Insurance twice uh over the last few months that makes a real difference to people that’s £900 to a an average working family that’s a real boost to people and and we’re going to continue doing that that’s being done in a sustainable way uh there has been money going to those local authorities to to spend on improving Services I was in Harley poool last week um looking at what the council was doing improving the quality of local roads that does matter to people you know that’s a real Improvement to Road users and the fact that most people drive uh to work in the country that improves the quality of their life so I think we are doing those things does it happen as fast as people want probably not but we’ve got a clear plan on transport investment for example to spend that money particularly in the parts of the country that haven’t had that level of Transport investment in the past the labor by the way are not saying they’re going to do that they haven’t said they’re backing that plan and now about Labor’s plans on that because if you win the next election those people who voted for you particularly those in poorer areas who have not seen their place you know that sense of place that the conservative party talked about so much they have not seen their place improve physically improving jobs improving standards and services they will expect quick evidence that it was worth their while can you can you deliver it quickly I mean all things in government take some time but can you give them some hope early on if you win the next election absolutely because I think what’s happened over recent years is that we’ve had these com kind of competitive bidding processes set up by conservative governments you know over 14 years pitting different areas against each other very very short termist often decisions that are quite difficult to understand as we’ve just been talking about and they’ve not been part of longer term integrated plans for those different areas and local people haven’t had a look in you know they’ve not been able to decide what they wanted for their area who it’s going to be joined up with you know for example transport linked into skills linked into employment opportunities it’s just been about whether a conservative Minister uh in whiteall decides to tick off uh a particular proposal that’s not a way to give people control over the local areas that’s why we’ve set out those plans for takeback control that why we said that we would have Local Economic plans because that’s what people consistently say that they want they actually say they value that more by the way than the amount of money they want to have control over it they haven’t under the conservatives and is is that something that that labor are already actively discussing with the northern Mayes for example absolutely we’ve been a lot of discussion with them but we’ve got to then marry that up with a focus on the cost of living and I’m afraid I have to say we keep hearing this claim uh from Mark that taxes are going down the tax burden on working people is increasing it’s not just me saying that as a labor politician you’ve got bodies like the institute for fiscal studies independent experts are really clear the tax burden is going up on working people people have got less money in their pockets and their incomes have not been increasing at the same rate that they were consistently under the last Labor L government that’s just the reality of it she just don’t that point there about longer term things look I agree with that but we put the money in that transport plan so we’ve set out long-term plans for local authorities we’ve told them how much money we going to get over a decade if we’re reelected on road maintenance that’s 8.3 billion pounds over that decade the local transport fund for councils in the North and the Midlands that’s a seven-year program telling them how much they’re getting over that period it absolutely involves local people because those decisions are for local councils involving local members of parliament and listening to what local people want so there’s a long-term they’ve got money attached to them labors not backed that they’ve not made that Financial commitment and you can have whatever plans you want but unless you’re going to back them up with some resources they don’t mean anything and labor hasn’t committed that and they’re flirting with switching the second phase of hs2 back on again and that would mean taking away all of that money from those communities that we’ve promised we I have to leave there just for now but of course any any discussion of place and the economics of a place involves the environment we’ll talk to the deputy leader of the green party in a few minutes Zach bansky uh we’ll take your calls as well remember on 0345 66097 we’ve actually got a full switch point and we’ve got a full never happened before in any election program that I’ve ever hosted I put it down to this lot I put it down to and we’ll get to those calls I promise you in in in greater numbers uh in a few minutes the time is 117 now this is LBC listen e e e election Night Live on LBC text 8485 uh Joe tman is here pollster and poster that’s the one word job title you’ve got Joe um some news on the greens and we have the deputy leader of the greens here with us Zack palansky so tell us the news first and then we’ll talk to Zach yes we’ve uh we’ve had a result in the last in the last 15 minutes from cleton and East baldon which is in South tinside and that is a gain for the conservatives sorry gain from the conservatives for the green party uh 48% of the vote for greens that’s a rise of 35% the conservatives lost 18% of the vote and labor lost 15% of the vote and so uh uh yeah stunning performance by The Greens Greens there what’s going on this is a nice question to answer it’ss we like to do a soft just keep them coming and also i’ not Newcastle and congratulations to khed because that’s actually our first counselor so that’s a real breakthrough and that was a game from labor just to be clear and and that’s interesting cuz I think what we’re seeing play out in real time in the studio tonight is exactly what’s going on we have a conservative party who are saying we just need more time they’ve had 14 years of austerity that has broken this country in its public services but then we have a labor party who are talking about a cost of living crisis when really we have an inequality crisis because the’re wealth wealthier than they’ve ever been before whilst people are struggling to put food on the table and and Heat their homes yet they won’t tax wealth so I think what’s going on here is places like Newcastle and South titin side are looking at the two old parties and looking for something different and when the green party have been quietly working away there for quite a few years we’ve over quadrupled our number of counselors over the last four years and every time the media often say where have the greens come from these are these are shocking results but actually these have been going on for a while and they expect them to continue and Ben it’s quite an indication and Joe feel free to come in on this as well it’s quite an indication isn’t it of the the mobility of C voters in terms of which direction of travel they’ll go in it it absolutely is it comes back to what we talking about before Sheil I think in terms of you know K St to win the next election needs to win Tor voters but you have seen particularly in recent months particularly with the Israel issue this sort of seepage which risks turning into an exodus of leftwing Voters to the greens to the lib Dems uh namely predominant those two parties now look that doesn’t matter too much from the general election because most of those voters are in seats where actually labors either got a big majority it’s not got huge hopes but tonight I think it’s going to be really interesting to see whether we do see that play out in some of the seats that Zach’s talking about really because there is an issue there’s an issue to the Tories from for the Tories on their right flank there’s increasingly an issue I think for labor on its Left Flank this is an this is an indication of long-term trends we’ve seen in rises in voter promiscuity people no longer vote for the same party election after election after election and parties cannot rely on that in the throughout the 2000s that has increased and they haven’t been able to rely on it now for some times and that’s particularly true in second order elections like local elections but it could represent a real risk at generals as well and briefly if you would Mark well all of you actually um briefly because I want to talk to uh Alex in Brighton um that promiscuity great way of describing it joke that promiscuity of Voters has that changed how you operate with voters are are you better listeners as a result of that because some things historically were just so automatic weren’t they and and that is changing I personally think that’s quite exciting but I’m sure it’s quite hard work as a politician uh well I’ll I pick that first I’ll leave some time look I think it just means we we have to work harder I I I seat I represent in in Parliament the Forest De it was a seat we lost in 97 I fought it twice uh won it on the second time and I’ve won it ever since but you know I’m there every week I go out campaigning every week I work you know incredibly hard many of my colleagues do you can’t take people for granted and uh I think if you take people for granted you you comeer and I think that’s why we’re working really hard and conservative counselors who I think do a fantastic job have been working really hard out campaigning for exactly that reason and I think you just don’t take people for granted you work hard have to show them and earn their trust do you feel though and I mean that I guess you may not be able to answer this question we going to ask it anyway I remember after the 97 election Andrew Mitchell who was MP for gedling at the time which people thought was a relatively safe T seat in Nottingham share um he encountered during the election campaign a voter who he had helped in a quite complicated constituency case and she was incredibly grateful to him for it and they were chatting on the High Street and he just sort of said as you do hope you’re going to be supporting me at the election and she said I’m sorry Mr Mitchell you’ve done an awful lot for me but it’s time for a change are you encountering any of that but we must let Analise on that well short answer no actually um and actually what’s interesting is there are there are people who voted for us who um you know raise a number of issues on the doorstep but actually certainly on the ones I’ve been encountering in my patch they usually finish by going but I don’t want a labor government uh I I’m not encountering any switches from labor lots of people who are not sure what they’re going to do but not people who who are attracted by K St at all and that’s not what happened in the ’90s for example yeah I mean I have to say that’s very different to my experience from talking with people up and down the country they want change they want to see what labor is setting out you know GB energy publicly owned company for example the measures that were setting out the cost of living crisis they want to see more resources in our NHS they want to see tax Dodgers paying for that ultimately they don’t want to see working people being tax more as they are under the conservatives they want that change and it’s because Libra has been listening to people that we’ve been setting out those policies but I would just say if I may briefly I look at this in a bit of a Long View and with all respect to the green party actually you know I’m from Oxford we had the greens and lib Dems in Coalition previously just about the only thing that those uh uh parties agreed in when they led the council was they didn’t want to build any new housing any new social housing that was their main core policy and then we also saw of course in Brighton where we did have H the green party in control that that actually that left I’m afraid Brighton and H in a huge mess and they were booted out quite quickly boring mid has just won hang on there’s a difference between councilors being elected briefly for a period and then actually having that staying power and I think we’ll have to see where that I think what we’re hearing from the two all parties here is history and actually I think the green party are a big part of the future actually York Council where we were in the administration won awards for the amount of social housing they were building what we see too often from labor is luxury executive homes that unaffordable and people are rejecting that and saying we need to get back to social housing and we need to end right to be fair talking about Oxford at the time but let’s thank you let’s get to our caller Joe in Harley pool hello Joe hello hi what did you want to say I’d like to ask uh Mark Harper a question what time can you go to the theater and get public transport homark because in Harley pole if we want to go to any theater we haven’t got any in Harley pole anymore because the town hall is now closed we have to travel to Newcastle or sundland the last time we went to this theater we had to leave before the end of the show to get public transport back to hearty po if I want to leave my home on an evening the last bus from where I live into our town center is at 20 5 at night so can you tell me please as a transport Minister how you are leveling up in Harley pool Joe well thank thank you very much for your question it’s a great question it’s good that you raised buses actually um buses are the most popular form of public transport twice as many Journeys by by bus as by train that’s exactly why we’ve actually put a big investment into buses the bus service took a big hit during the pandemic a lot of people stopped using buses uh a lot of people who were concessionary fairh holders haven’t returned to using buses that’s one of the big forms of of money that goes towards bus services uh we’ve put a lot of money into that a lot of money’s gone into uh the mays in Combined authorities uh and to local authorities to enable them to protect bus services to develop bus services and of course our 2 bus fair to reduce the cost of services the labor party by contrast wants local authorities to take them over with no money we’ve put a lot of money into those local areas so that the the Mayors are able to improve local bus services to uh develop them over time there’s a thing called bus service improvement plans that they develop there’s a lot of money coming from central government to enable local authorities to improve the bus service it goes back people can use why give 20 million to a theater in Rich mulvin when Harley Paul a similar I say similar size town I don’t know but I imagine it probably is they haven’t got one and even if they had there wouldn’t be enough public transport transport people to go that’s an easy way to level up surely I don’t know the detail about the theater and that’s that’s not my area responsibility I don’t know the detail so I’m not going to answer a question where I don’t know the facts right that’s not very good thing to do but on on the bus question Joe it’s a really important question question that is why we have put a lot of resources into improving bus services now it may be that the specific services that Joe wants to use haven’t been improved yet but it is one of the priority areas that we have for spending because we recognize how important it is and Ben on that it links into the wider conversation we’ve been having about leveling up this evening or this morning this morning um it’s it’s become such a big part of the conversation and you were right Mark Harper it isn’t just a north south thing it’s a it’s a you know parts of the country that have the access to transport have the access to all kinds of things and other parts of the country not having it that is a real political Hot Potato isn’t it it’s huge and I think there’s an awful lot of um misplaced hope there was a lot of Hope in 2019 that this was going to change a lot of people in parts of the country that had been clearly demonstrably neglected for a long time thought great finally our time has come and a lot of people haven’t seen those improvements it’s notable Sheila partly because of this I think and a lot of Tor andp say to me Boris John Johnson still resonates and relates to redwall voters in a way that Rishi sunak didn’t and a lot of that I think was leveling up not all of it but he he built a coalition Boris Johnson that Rishi sunak is I think struggling to hold together well we have come to that time of day when we lose two of our guests two of our should we say fist to your guests so far in the program and Le thank you very much indeed that’s despite a whole day of canvasing is it all working yes I’ve been out knocking your doors this after mark thank you also in a moment we’ll be joined by labor Shadow Cabinet member Steve Reed and yet another deputy chairman of the conser how many have they got well endless supplies James will we have Z with us as well Zack bans the queen party it’s coming up to half past one here on LBC let’s get the latest news headlines from Daryl Jackson as counting continues in elections across England and Wales this morning the transport secretaries admitted it’s likely to be a difficult night for the conservatives they’re defending nearly a thousand local Council seats across England labor are also hoping to win Blackpool South where there’s been a Westminster byelection the foreign secretary Lord David Camerons visited ke to meet Ukraine’s President Vladimir zalinski it follows the government’s commitment to spending at least 2.5% of GDP on defense and it looks like John swinny could be un opposed in the race to become Scotland’s next first Minister the snp’s former leader has confirmed he’ll Run for the job again while rival Kate forb says she’s backing him instead LBC weather cloudy for most later with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of any sunshine in the far south and Northwest and a high of 21° this is LBC the e e leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC 1:32 a.m. on LBC welcome to the program if you’ve just joined us I don’t know where you’ve come from or where you’ve been but um you’re welcome anyway uh we have some new guests in the studio with us James Daly is as I said before yet another deputy chair you can’t have enough Deputy chair well you see there only used to be one and now there’s how many of you well the Situation’s improved greatly the situation has actually improved think about Eightfold well no no no the productivity has gone up as well so it’s only a good news story we also have Zack palansky with us Deputy leader of the green party uh Christel Cooper joins us director of research at Labor together chrisel hello welcome uh what is labor together labor together is a political think tank so we are regulated by the electric commission we are not an independent charity We Exist solely to get labor to win and to keep labor in power once it’s there and the together bit what’s that sounds a bit Huggy feely doesn’t it oh we’re very Huggy Feely we hug and we no we I’m actually just going to stop there I think we should invite her back about 4:30 that’s when get slapstick and carry on carry on politics in the studio um let’s go to a call actually let’s go to Alex in Brighton because he’s W been waiting a hell of a long time and we are going to take lots of calls between now and 6: a.m. 0345 6060 973 bright Alex near call in Brighton Brighton and Alex it’s nearly is it Alex welcome to the program what would you like to say good morning so I would be one of those leftwing voters that you discussing earlier that’s thinking about voting green uh moving away from labor um and basically the the primary reason is uh economics essentially I trust the greens far more economically now than than I do the labor party I think they’re the only uh party currently that is really discussing uh wealth inequality and which I believe to be the the primary issue of our times um I I’m a benefits claimant I live in social housing um I have been stuck in a social housing scheme essentially for 12 years um and yeah I I think we’re talking about custom living crisis a lot of the the the problems that we have uh you know economically simply due to the fact that we’re not taxing a billionaire class that has seen an exorbitant amount of wealth over the past 30 years and I have absolutely no idea why we have a a labor party that is is leading in the polls that isn’t really discussing taxing wealth um so yeah I’m I’m looking to jump essentially well let’s hear from chrisel on this because obviously Alex has been a lb supporter in the past he going to the greens now the greens always been quite strong in bright and they hold one of the Parliamentary seats he’s exactly the kind of voter that Labor’s got to keep if it’s going to get any sort of decent majority isn’t he um yeah no I think that’s right but I think what um labor is uh does have a really big policy on is housing I noticed that Alex is living in social housing at the moment and I think we’re the really the only party that does have a policy that is saying that we are going to build houses the conservatives certainly can’t do it their Coalition of Voters simply won’t allow them to do it and you know too often we see the greens actually opposing new housing in in a lot of places so certainly if you want to reverse one of the greater inequalities that we see in this country which is between people who own their own houses often outright and who are completely unaffected by the mortgage crisis that’s happening at the moment and those who don’t I I I would really recommend that that you would that you would give your vote to labor but Labour’s housing policy isn’t particularly radical is it because the Tores are building around 250,000 houses a year and I think Labour’s promise is only 300,000 so it’s not a massive increase um we are talking about making big changes to the planning laws which I think would have an impact on the number of houses and also I think on the type of houses that are built meaning um that I think you I think you would I think you would see I you know I I I’m not a policy expert but but I think what you would see is is houses that were not you know less of the sort of luxury development and actually housing that was for ordinary working people and Ben you will know from doing phoning programs now on LBC as well as as stuff like this um it housing to my mind is is at speed coming up the rails as one of the big three election issues come the general election NHS obviously cost of living which obviously takes in housing as well but it just can’t it’s so linked to those two issues as of course and it stems from an absolutely wful complete failure of both the political parties main parties over the last 20 years to sort it out and I’m actually going to LEAP to K for change I think what K starm is saying about greenbell and what K starm is saying about forcing councils to build is actually Bolder and braver than what he said so far it’s easy to say these things isn’t it it’s actually quite difficult to it’s like a turning man an oil tank of the planning system and it’s very easy to say we’re going to do it I mean I thought when Michael go became housing se he was sort of the rad kind of radical thinker that might affect some to be Michael was and I think Rishi sunak has overruled him at every stage or Le reform on the forcing councils to build on renters reform goes tried and sunak has bottled it basically and said it’s too contentious that’s why I think starm actually deserves a bit of credit on this because it is political risky politically risky to say look we are going to build homes on the green bow and you will get the likes of the greens and the lib Dem oh my God you can’t do that look at these wonderful Fields a lot of it’s not green a lot of it is right for housing and to be fair to sto one of the few politicians that has said do you know what those homes need to be built and Zack palas you of the green this is the second time this evening you haven’t been here with us long and this is the second time your your approach to housing has been criticized by two different uh guests so respond to it and it’s interesting because we’re hear hearing similar criticisms in places like Bristol where they’re throwing ads you know that they’re worried we’re going to expand the Clean Air Zone so labor seem to be coming up with these attack lines that aren’t built in reality what we really need is the right homes in the right places at the right price what does that mean the right homes passive house standard there’s no point in building homes that are not properly insulated because then they have to be retrofitted later when we talk about how much we need to be looking at things like rent controls in fact in London where I’m a London assembly member we have dragged sadik Khan to finally supporting rank controls but now he’s in the awkward position of K starma kind of saying no and so we’ve got a labor mayor and potentially a future labor government who are in opposition there and then the right place bit is really important now Ben says look at that wonderful field that’s an awful way of characterizing we are in an ecological and biodiversity emergency do we need to build social homes absolutely I cannot be clear about that we need to make sure that we’re building homes for people we’re buying the the supply back so that’s about giving council’s first right to buy empty homes we’re making sure we’re converting some of those empty homes but what K starmer is doing is trying to uh create vague descriptions such as grey belt which is actually talking about places where we have biodiversity where again we see labor councils constantly demolishing old Council homes in the name of regeneration pushing those people out into the outer burs of London or out of the Cities from where they live and then creating luxur homes that people can’t afford to live in now this isn’t just me saying this this story is up and down the country where people can no longer afford to live in their communities because the housing that has been built there is too expensive whereas really what we need to build is social housing of right to it’s an absolute fallacy to think you can solve the housing crisis without building on any land that is currently green as for the gry belt there are car parks there are bits of concrete Wasteland in greenb that have been wrongly designated that’s what K starm was talking about building on the idea that you cannot touch the green belt that is absolutely saite but you can solve the housing crisis it’s nonsense one quick question for you do you know who owns the most land in London it’s the Duke of somebody Westminster the other public land is Transport for London loads of Brownfield sites you could be building on those go there first make that the absolute priority and then politians have beening for 10 years that you can solve the housing crisis just by building a brown You’ rather destroy the envirment build social housing on it’s well it is because you’re either destroying the environment or you’re building that’s not building on a carart that has wrongly been categorized as part of the green belt is not destroying the environment get real we’ve got a housing crisis young people are suffering this is nonsense let me bring in Joe time in here Joe I know you’re Keen to come in on this I mean I would be Keen to to know what the polls say what voters are saying about housing and what they want yeah what they value well what they want is uh is good quality hous housing what they want is cheaper housing what they want is for their children to be able to buy in the areas in which they live these are very complicated questions uh housing is if you like a a third tier issue and so you have have the cost of living at the top you then have the NHS and the economy generally in the second tier and then housing along with uh issues like immigration and crime and the environment forms that third tier even though as Ben quite rightly pointed out these things are interconnected but where housing is particular important is among young people particularly young people who live in cities and where the labor gain so much of their support it’s from that it’s from that group and so really labor have to have a a retail offering to use the cliche on housing for to appeal to that group at the election but they also crucially have to deliver on it and be perceived to be delivering on it if they are going to be in any way successful among their core vote at the next election do you know if we are uniquely terrible at building social housing in Europe or or are other European comparable European nations having a similar problem I’m afraid I’m no expert on European social health I just wondered me neither from what I understand we are uh we’re as bad as lots of other places right that’s not very that’s not very encouraging is it um yeah I mean it’s you know we just get so many calls on it Christoper we got so many calls on it are you convinced that labor will convince voters on this one um yes I am um because partly responding to what Joe said Labor’s voter Coalition is one that I think will allow labor to do this I think what’s held um people like Michael go back is the fact that the conservatives voter Coalition is very much skewed towards older people most of whom own their own houses outright and just literally have no interest in in building any more houses but people don’t live in those silos they have grandchildren ab and they call me all the time and tell me that they’re worried about their grandchildren’s lack of housing options but they continue voting conservative James dy I think it’s a really really interesting debate and I think it’s one of the reasons as to why local elections are so important because essentially this is a democratic process people are given the opportunity hopefully local politicians have a vision for their area they want to tell their local voters what the area should look like whether you call that regeneration or what whatever it is and I think that too often councils and and this I’m sure there are examples across all political parties fail in doing that now the question is first of all and it’s a really interesting question I think that planning is as much about knocking things down as it is about building things there are plenty of build there are plenty of should we say unused buildings or buildings that could be taken into public ownership you pointed to B was that the car park in the green B there’s car park where there’s a factory anything else like that we could go to any town in the country and if you look above the row of shops at the the amount of empty spaces above those shops in a town like I represent it’s huge but there is no political will certainly that I’ve seen to be able to really tackle those and to create Living Spaces in this existing Urban environment that we’ve got I think that the the question of Dem how can I put it the Democracy within the planning system is an interesting one because the issue with the green belt in many parts of the country the green belt is a very is a very hot political issue and politicians do from time to time respond to the concerns of their voters and in those circumstances we create the situation where in certain areas we’re not building as many houses uh as we should do so I think sorry but I just going to jump in there that that’s what Michael Gove was trying to address right that was why Michael Gove was trying to pass legislation that would force councils to build a certain number of homes your party’s back benches because of concerns about green bout and nism and so on got them themselves in a tear and rishy said to Michael go okay don’t worry then well what do the point I was going to make which I think is an important point in respect to this it’s not just an issue number it’s very important in terms of the numbers that we build but if we’re building as as we’ve just been talking about here 300,000 450,000 houses that’s a complete waste of time we have to have a mixed um housing Supply and too often local authorities again this is another I’m not across the political divide subcontract their planning responsibilities to housing companies who want to maximize their return as they are quite entitled to do and how do they do that they build four and five bedroom houses which are unaffordable to many people and I represent a constituency in the northwest of England the cost of a three-bedroom house in part ofate is certainly well over £300,000 you know and and people the average salary would not be much more than £30,000 it is a real real challenge so I agree with the point regarding numbers but I also say if if you take the greater Manchester situation we have the greater Manchester it’s called places for everyone now the N the nine councils with greater Manchester have chosen to take a certain parts of the green belt out of the green belt so they can build houses on there so let’s not run away from the fact that politicians don’t have the powers to do it they just choose not to do it in certain circumstances so there is a big Democratic issue here and whether politicians should ignore in certain circumstances the very real concerns of the people who elect them okay thanks very much indeed for now uh James Dy Deputy chairman of the conservative party and MP for Barry North at that Northwest constituency you’re alluding to there Christel Cropper director of research at lab together still with us and Zack palansky Deputy leader what did I say you keep saying Cropper it says Cropper on my piece of paper it says Cooper on the I do apologize my ancestor CER Cooper really my apologies CH that is a cooper chrisel cooper and Zack palanski I got that right Zack pki Deputy leader of the green party with us and Ben only with us for 10 more minutes or so let’s not forget Joe tman and Gareth as well so we’ll get lots more from them uh the time is now 1:47 LBC don’t know what e e election Night Live on LBC it’s 1:49 on LBC hope you’re enjoying our election Night live coverage if you’d like to take well we are aren’t we we always do though I mean even even if we didn’t have a single listener we’d have a good time we’d absolutely would I know we have lots of listeners cuz I’m watching how many there are on the that’s lovely and we’ve got loads of calls to get through between now and six and let me just reintroduce our panel before we go to a call James Daly is here Deputy chairman of the conservative party MP for burry North Zack palansky Deputy leader of the green party we got a lot of deputies tonight haven’t we uh Christel Cooper is not a deputy uh she is director of research at Labor together she’s a woman in charge aren’t you chrisel yeah woman in Char I do like that a woman so do I actually that’s what the world should be filled with right let’s uh end this malar and go to Stuart in nonon hello Stuart hello panel um good morning um so I’m in a traditional Bell weather area uh of Nan and bedworth and we’re currently under conservative um Powers leadership um we’ve had a really bad labor leadership beforehand but I’ve always voted labor and I always will vote labor um Mar Harper said earlier about lower council tax in conservative areas well ours has just risen by about 5 10% and I’m in a local Authority property and I’m having to pay an extra £12 a month just on rent alone and your question is or you just want to make a comment um it was more a comment but my question is how would how would you lower the costs for everybody both in council tax and in living standards and living like for food and rent and everything else it’s it’s sort of the ultimate impossible conundrum isn’t it because you’re never going to be able to please all of the people all of the time and every everyone would love to be paying lower taxes but they want better Public Services it doesn’t match does it James no I think that the hopefully and this may be a an an outrageous comment for a politician to make is that politicians should be tested should be held to account for the policies they stand on and what they put in place does matter whether you’re conservative labor or green in respect of that hopefully every politician has a Viewpoint in terms of addressing the issues which the gentleman has quite quite rightly raised I could produce a list now of certain things that happened over uh over the years um but I don’t want to be the tri politician in respect to this if that if your council tax has gone up in in n e and that is unreasonable then that should affect your vote sir that is exactly what it is and you if you are paying more in council tax you should demanding you have the right to better Frontline Services if those are not being delivered then that should affect the voter where you where that goes there’s too often we talk rather than delivering in politics and my view is that um the question is politics is a very local thing isn’t it in my view politics strikes you when you walk out your front door because you see the the pavement with the crack in it you see the road with the pot hole in it you see your local school and you’ve probably got either know somebody else a member of your family’s gone there personal experiences shape how you feel about politics and if that personal experience that you are having is a negative personal experience I said to people in my constituents if you feel that I’ve not represented you correctly if I’ve not said that I’m I’ve done what I said I would do or tried to do then you shouldn’t vote for me and I think that I think that that is hopefully a part answer to a very big question Z palinsky it’s that time of night where I’m going to be brave enough to disagree with the caller you know when you say I’m always going to vote labor that gives them well it just gives them no incentive to ever change and actually we’ve seen this in London where Sadi Khan ran his whole campaign about Susan hall now Susan Hall was the biggest gift possible to Sadi Khan in this London campaign but actually it just meant we didn’t really see a campaign from these two old parties and then Zoe garbett for the green party came along and time and time again even the evening standard said a breath of fresh air a break of sunshine this feels like something different and I think people need to vote for something different if they want something different and we hear this again about the idea there’s no money left but you can have all things for all people I think if you make sure sorry Ian said it I point him the wrong way start with in instead but actually if we tax the wealthiest then actually that does mean that working people can have lower taxes on their income but actually on their assets we can tax more it’s crazy that we taxes people pleasing thing to say to tax the wealthiest now um it’s not necessarily going to deliver all the results that you want is it and and you’ve never I’m not sure I’ve heard correct if I’m wrong but I haven’t heard you say well we would tax these people at this rate and penalize them in that way people with assets of over 10 million 1% if you get to 20 million 1% every year of their assets exactly and but you will know as well as I do that rich people even if they’re billionaires they’re billionaires on paper they haven’t got they haven’t got a billion pounds of ready cash to to pay over to hm treasury um so how do you how do you deal with that well I think it’s about closing the tax loopholes the non-dom status all the kind of things that labor are saying in that part but the bit that labor aren’t saying is about taxing those assets now people often talk about Capital flight the idea what if they leave this country but that’s not really how wealth Works they want well it is ex exactly how wealth work we saw we saw it in the 1970s well I think there’s lots of evidence actually that they pointing at a wealth tax that is done right and also an evasion tax so if someone tries to sorry a flight tax if someone tries to leave their assets then they get taxed on that too and if people really want to become wealthy but don’t want to give to our NHS to our public services to our policing then actually we shouldn’t be welcoming them in country think like that just because you and I know I’m going to sound as if I’m defending the rich but most people who become rich I those who haven’t inherited the wealth for example they have earned it through the work that they’ve done the risks they’ve taken with their own money the businesses that they’ve built up given employment opportunities and yet you sort of seem to regard these people as almost beneath contempt so that’s not quite true um the rich have but I’m talking about the ultra rich multimillionaires and billionaires if you take Beyonce for instance I absolutely love Beyonce I’ve not got a bad word to say about Beyonce she can only get as wealthy as she can get through her talent and she’s earned that but actually at some point she then takes the money she’s earned through her talent and that was fair enough and puts it into assets then it just sits there and gets more and more and more without having to do a thing that creates this Mass inequality that we’ve got in our society tax in it sure but we need to be making sure we’re taxing properly so we can fund our his it te for Beyonce to be contributing to the treasury wouldn’t it don’t go off to Beyonce as can I just come in on that doesn’t like that’s problematic on Stuart’s point about Council funding there’s a massive elephant in the room here and that is social care if you want to know why you’re paying more in council tax and services are not improving it’s because the vast majority of what you pay in council tax is going on social care why because again both main parties haven’t sorted out the Tor 2019 Manifesto said they would come forward with a cross-party proposal for long-term funding they haven’t labors basically know we’re on it so more and more of the council tax you pay is going to have to going to pay for social care because central government has just totally neglected it um we haven’t yeah because I’m actually a former counselor and um yeah I think you’re too young to be former oh no I am I’m I’m very much uh old enough to be former um uh yeah now I had a bit of Revelation on about you know through week two of being a counselor I had a meeting with our Director of Finance and I was just shocked by you know he was telling me that Council simply cannot um rely year-to year on their funding from central government it comes in the series of of you know a bunch of grants that they cannot predict if one year the central government decides to focus on Child Protection you might get a grant for that the next year it goes away they cannot plan their finances and against that background and against background of like literally a 50% cut in real terms to local um Council Finance it is no wonder that councils are having to put council tax up so I think that is absolutely the element elephant in the room especially on a night when we’re talking about local elections local government has been absolutely starved of resources since 2010 because it was seen as an easy way of cutting money out of budgets without um without people realizing and finally 14 years later it really is catching up people are realizing they’re realizing their services are being cut and they’re realizing that their taxes are rising because that money is no longer coming from Central of it are they um well I mean obviously you know there are there are fiscal rules and you know we will inherit a situ if govern no they’re not yeah I mean we we labor government will inherit a a very difficult situation Ben before you go Ben kenes lbc’s presenter Ben kenes just a reflection I’d like to ask you uh to make for us before we go to the news at 2 am. um so far this evening in an evening where there aren’t that many results coming in yet we’ll get some more Reflections in a few moments from after the news from Joe tman and Gareth Knight on on what we are seeing coming in already but we’ve seen reform pressurizing the Tory party we’ve seen the green party pressurizing both the Tory party and labor labor are claiming that win in Harley poool I noticed they put it up on Twitter as as a win um how much better for example do labor need to do this time around than last year when they did okay to really deliver that wow set of results to take them to the general election quite a lot Sheila to be honest and I think what what we’re talking what we touched on a lot is the the lack of certainty that a lot of people in this country have about Mo both main parties at the moment now of course people vote in Pro protest ways at local elections come the general election I think tactical voting is going to be massive I don’t think you can extrapolate completely from tonight to a general election but I think what you do see is obviously huge progress made by labor on D compared to 2019 massive he is well on track to become the next prime minister I see no sign of that changing but I do think you’re seeing when it comes to reform the greens the lib dams you are seeing a lot of people say you know what yes I’ll probably vote Tory or la come the general election but I’m not actually that happy right now with either of you interesting Ben thank you for joining us over the last was it three or three hour three and a half hours we are about to also say goodbye to Zack palansky but not before he answers this question which is actually put to Sheila and me but um I’m a bit offended by this Hector says so you’re sending it to me yeah in well you’re you’re sitting nearest to me so you can judge in our house we’re trying to decide if Ian has had fake tan for this show um I wanted to say how much I’m enjoying your election night program hang in there any evidence of fake T well it would be saying no there’s no evidence at all no there isn’t I think it’s the screen it’s my 11% Middle Eastern DNA oh is have you I’ve got I’m 2% Korean are you are you apparently so so many Nigerian genuinely really genuinely am which other a margin of error 2% Italian how glamorous I’m extremely boring like like North from Lincoln um I my father was from valiz which which has got an interesting cultural history but um it was founded by British Pirates so I hope that I have some British pirate in me somewhere wow no answer to that James uh three grandparents born in Ireland you and me both I we could go on for the rest of the evening or morning on this couldn’t we but we better not uh you’re listening to lbc’s election Night live coverage on fake T fun we we did gray hair earlier on we’re going to do a lot more of that as on 6 hours hours of broadcasting it’s 1 minute past two yeah on your radio on global player and play LBC leading Britain’s conversation this is [Music] LBC from Global’s Newsroom I’m Daryl Jackson well counting is underway in many of the elections that were held yesterday Millions have been casting ballots for local councilors Mayors police Commissioners and even one parliamentary constituency in blackpole the local elections are the biggest test of public opinion before the general election expected a bit later on this year labor MP Sarah Jones Shadow Minister for industry and decarbonization told LBC they’re looking to do well in areas where they’ve not done so well in the past we’re looking that we we might come back in places like redit and thork and and and Rushmore these are all places where we’re hoping to see real gains and it looks like think the conservatives will lose hundreds of seats tonight when they should be at this point just before an election making some gains well some results are slowly starting to come in labor retain control of Sunderland Council the conservatives hold brbor labor have also declared victory in harleypool well earlier Labour wouldn’t say how many gains they’re hoping to make here’s the party’s national campaign coordinator Pat mcfaden the first result we’ll look for is a black pill byelection which is the only result where Rishi sunik and the government are really on the ballot paper and if we can gain that that will show real progress on the way to the coming general election but also the green party have taken clevedon Council from the conservatives Zack palinsky Deputy leader told LBC why they’ve won I think what’s going on here is places like Newcastle and south tinside are looking at the two old parties and looking for something different and when the green party have been quietly working away there for quite a few years we’ve over quadrupled our number of counselors over the last four years in other news foreign secretary Lord Cameron’s been to keev to meet president zinsky the visit comes after the UK’s multi-year commitment to deliver 3 billion pounds of Military Support to Ukraine and a vigil will be held in Northeast London on Sunday close to where a 14-year-old boy was stabbed to death 36-year-old Marcus monzo is accused of murdering the teenager and injuring four other people on Tuesday LBC weather cloudy for most later today with some heavy showers is moving in from the East the best of the sunshine in the far south and Northwest and a high of 21° from Global’s Newsroom for LBC I’m Daryl Jackson this is LBC from Global leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC Ian Dale at Sheila fog on LBC and LBC news this is lbc’s election night live um shall we do a roll call because each each sort of two hours I’ll be teacher each two hours we have a new a new roll call of name the naughty boy at the back of the class you can be the na well we have two the the newest children in the class are Steve Reed Shadow Justice secretary and labor MP for cuden North they’re very giggly today manira Wilson Shadow Justice secretary what did I call Shadow environment apologies Shadow environment secretary and labor MP for G North Deputy chairman of the conser also not a child I know we’ll be the judges kids we were having a we were having a school joke God I you’re laboring these jokes you look it’s meant to be on the wing on the wing that’s what humor’s all about on the wing manira Wilson liberal Democrat MP for twickingham correct yes and the party’s education spokesperson very much in keeping we also have with us Christel Cooper not Cropper Cooper director of research at Labor together James daily Deputy chairman of the conservative party and MP for Barry North Joe tman the pollster is with us we’ll hear a lot more from Joe and Gareth Knight is here as well our theologist a regular voice we’ll hear from him when he’s actually got some results he’s been a let down so far yeah but there’s more than results to talk about there’s more than results one result that has been very openly claimed by labor is uh heartly pool and we’re hoping to talk someone in harleypool in a moment but we have callers coming in don’t forget you can call throughout the night on 0345 6060 973 and let’s go to Scott who’s a new caller in Haywood’s Heath hello Scott oh hi to um a great show by the way this evening or or this morning I should say um I’m what I’m going to say is not going to be the um good music to James dy’s ears um for one thing I’m a conservative party member okay um I’m a conservative party member um didn’t vote today because I didn’t have a vote it was only for the police Commissioners and I thought that was a waste of time um but as a conservative party member I’m have I’m sorry to say that I’m not going to be voting conservative if if and when the next election comes this uh this year why I a whole host of reasons um obviously the boats is a is a big thing the police force being soft on crime waiting lists NHS well hang on a minute you just you just said that the police and crime commissioner elections are a waste of time and yet you’ve listed police as the second most important thing to you they’re a waste of time I think that they’re a waste of money I should say having a police commissioner is is a waste of money and and the money could be going into um a lot more different resources than having a police um commissioner uh but the list goes on rivers poed rivers I just I should say the the the railways um so I’m going to be voting reform at the next election um it pains me to say the only reason I’ve kept my membership was because in case of a leadership election for the conservatives um that’s the only reason why I’ve kept it actually for the last couple of years there’s been scandal after Scandal every week there seems to be some some kind of new slee story um and you know my constituency where I live um is is never ever going to be anything other than conservative it’s going to it’s it’s going to be a new constituency that’s been formed um called um East GED an arfield um so my my vote is is probably more a protest vote but I’m just sick of the conservatives and and it pains me to say being a conservative party member James I mean that that that’s quite a litany there I don’t expect it’s the first time you’ve heard this sort of thing but it you’ve got to try and find a way of keeping people like Scott back in the party haven’t you I me I know he says he’s still a member but he’s clearly not going to vote for you well the reason why I became a member of parment was because I believed in a set of principles which could be called conservative could be called broadly right of Center and I believe that my constituents the part of the world that I lived in would benefit from having a government that shared those principles which but basically from my own personal perspective was based upon creating opportunity for people no matter their background and I could listen list a number of things that happened in my area both locally regionally and nationally where I think we’ve achieved that I I come at this from this standpoint I want all I can say to Scott I’m not going to come Scott you you obviously think about these things very deeply you’ve got some real concerns respect of that I can tell you that for the rest of this Parliament I will be working together with my colleagues to listen and to act and to do you know to try to persuade you to vote for the conservative party again but if you don’t if you feel it is better that we have a labor government and that we have socialism and that we have higher Taxation and everything else that comes with that which seems to be completely against your value base and we go back to a situation where certainly my part of the world the reason why I became involved in politics is because in the North of England the labor the labor party in terms of the how they ran local councils and the area destroyed opportunity bankrupted councils um and you know council tax went through the roof and all the other things so you know by voting for reform you guaranteeing the country going back to socialism going back to all of these things and that’s why I would urge you just to look at some of the efforts that politicians like me are making and the prime minister to act upon what you are concerned about what you have some very real concerns about because the alternative is is an absolute disaster for this country but people like Scott view this government your government as an absolute shambles full of incompetent ministers who’ve broken virtually every promise they’ve ever made to the electorate uh they don’t believe in what people would think of as proper conservative values low taxes small state Etc and they’ve just decided that even if you had another change of leadership that wouldn’t make any any difference either we we forgive me in respect to this example that it’s going to be about me so that’s you know I know politicians take every opportunity to speak about themselves but I think it’s important since I got elected I got elected in the most marginal seat in the country so I have 105 wonderful electors who made sure that I was in Parliament as a result of that I secured million pounds funding to save gig l in a football ground that you know very well we have two new special schools coming into the area2 million pound has been secured to regenerate Berry Market um we have a new 9 million pound STEM Center giving further learn uh skills opportunities to young people in my area that’s come since I’ve been uh elected to the council and various other things so Scott may think that but you know the latest thing that’s been announced in respect of the berry area is a a government initiative the greater Manchester investment Zone where 30,000 high-skilled wellpay jobs are going to be going to come one billion pound of private sector investment leverage to do that so whatever Scott may think in terms of those terms I say to my electors on all my con on all my Le to go to my constituent say you elect the conservative MP to deliver for you he is the list are you suggesting conservative ministers as throwing money your way because you’re a super marginal seat I’m saying they probably didn’t it because I’m a great MP who cares for his area and actually Unlike liberals and labors actually delivering for Barry which unfortunately as we have no liberal Democrat presence whatso whatsoever in Barry I’m not really able to comment in respect of that but they they compare me with the disaster of a labor Council the disaster of a Labor uh you know history locally and they think well my G you know incumbency is a good thing delivery is a good thing and that’s what I would urge Scott to judge his MP and other conservatives what’s really been going on of course is that where where the Tory ministers have been funling money towards um uh MPS in marginal seats which TR prop them up while their vote is coll collapsing they’ve cut on average since they came in 40% to local government many councils getting cuts of up to 80% then they G then they’ve given back far less James it’s like a burglar coming into your house stripping it bare and then expecting gratitude for handing back the toas that’s what you’re doing the fact that you can sit here and say we don’t want 30,000 wellp paid jobs we don’t want two new we didn’t want those it was your government that plundered Barry in the first place you’ve stripped it bar Services want those servic you you get gratitude for that you don’t want those services to come to Barry you don’t want MPS who fight on behalf of their you voted to cut them um two new your party voted to cut the funding to B absolutely yep lab has held up switched it’s a good news for you there mona can I pick up with you what is your ambition what are the lib dem’s ambition for these local elections because we’ve heard a lot about what labor will want to take to the general election from these elections uh we’ve heard a lot what the conservatives will be thinking about lib dams what are you chasing well we’re particularly focused on the areas that we’re hoping to make gains in come the general election the so-called blue wall a lot of those areas aren’t counting until tomorrow so we’re not going to see a lot of that tonight I mean overnight I’m hearing already we’re making gains uh potentially in places like Hampshire and Oxfordshire and hartfordshire uh but tomorrow we’ll be seeing places like tumbridge Wells counting where we’re hoping to make some gains but also elmbridge and Su which is uh Eastern Walton Dominic Rob’s backyard where we hope to take the seat at the general election wokingham John redwood’s backyard again we’re hoping to take seats there and take control of the council outright uh again that’s a seat we hope to gain at the general election and then there are obviously areas where we’re already dominant like Winchester and chelham where we already run the council where we hope to stay strong and again their top Target constituencies which we hope to take in the general election mainly Tory seats largely but we’ve already picked up a seat in Newcastle this evening uh and lost one or two in Sunderland I think have we I I hadn’t heard that we’d lost one or two I saw that in Sunderland actually in one of the seats our vote share went up and um both labor and conservatives went down but I haven’t seen the overall movement I mean Hull uh is always a labor libdem fight and I don’t think we’ve had any news yet from Hull overnight so that’s going to be a very close- run thing again cuz in the last uh local elections I I think everybody underestimated liberal Democrat gains and I think um John Curtis I think predicted 125 and in the end you got something like 400 that’s right yeah are you looking at that scale again this year well it’s it’s going to be far more difficult this time around so there’s three times fewer seats up for election this time I understand than they were this time last year and it is largely a red wall Focus set of Elections so I’m expecting to see actually labor making a lot of gains and US continuing to make steady progress in those areas that I’ve outlined where we’re targeting so some pretty strong expectation management from you there it’s just a different set of Elections I mean we did do as you say spectacularly well I think we broke Sky swingometer last year you did I remember it had to go on off the top of the screen um so so it won’t be on that level but we still hope to make gains yes okay and we will be going to heartley P just been told in the next five minutes or so Mana Wilson thank you for now liberal Democrat MP MP for Twickenham James Daly’s here Deputy chairman of the conservative party and MP for Barry North and Steve Reed labor MP for cro North and Shadow environment thank you Shadow environment secretary Christel Cooper is still here as well dor of research at Labor together and Joe tyman and Gareth knight uh with all of the political Reflections as well the time is what’s the time 215 this is LBC e e election Night Live on LBC text 8485 17 minutes past two on LBC and LBC news uh let’s cross to the count at harleypool Alan cinski lbc’s correspondent is there do we actually have a final result now because lab have claimed Victory but is it official yeah they claimed Victory about an hour ago didn’t they and now we do have the official declaration and it’s actually even better than they were hoping for at the start of the evening they were talking about maybe winning five or six of the 12 seats in play here tonight well they’ve taken nine the independent candidates have taken two and the conservatives have only H taken one of the seats so a very very good night for labor here in Harley pool of the seven conservative candidates up as I say only one of them has been returned and looking at the the swing of the votes as well it’s looking around on average a 20% swing from the conservatives as you’d say some of them to labor reform picking up uh some of that as well here as well I’m just turning around there as well because the conservative MP for heartley poool Jill Mortimer is H just finishing another interview just behind me we are hoping to speak to her soon of course in 2020 won the candidate who came here she won that historic Victory uh against labor sakir starmer one of his lowest moments he described it as at the time and lab were very much celebrating that tonight showing that what has gone on here party HQ saying that that is showing that labor has changed that people are now putting their trust back in the party and that they are willing to to return to labor so hopefully speak to Jill barer in the next few seconds but I was watching her and her team as the results were coming in here and they kept labor labor labor and the cheers were going up didn’t look happy at all and they were sad they were grimacing at times as well applauding as well graciously but it’s been a very tough night for them here um as I say hopefully speak to her soon she’ll hopefully come over in the next five minutes or so and I’ll be able to get that to you well your mission should you wish to accept it is to grab J when she’s finished her previous interview and interview her in the style of Jeremy Paxman Alan thank you very much indeed in your own inimitable style Alan that oh that’s what I meant to say yes that’s Alan cinski our correspondent in Harley pool um Steve Reed Harley paol I I get this sort of I don’t know Instinct that harleypool is going to be the the Basildon of this general election which I it’s been a difficult seat for you over the last few years um there was a byelection well we need go into the reasons for the byelection but it it was a pretty disastrous defeat for labor um and to get the council back in these circumstances is obviously an achievement now does does that does that can we read anything into this well I mean we’re doing better in heartly pulled than we thought we were doing in our in our best expectations so this this is dramatic I mean I I don’t know if you remember Ian but I was doing the the morning round the morning after we lost the heartly pool by elction in 2021 three years ago and I was eating an awful lot of Humble Pie um and that it was that defeat that really drove Kia to speed up change in the labor party we are now a lab a party transformed and that change labor party is getting very very different results the fact that we’ve taken heartley pool with swings of the size that we’re seeing here shows that labor is firmly on track to win the next general election because we are getting the biggest swings early in the night but from what we’re seeing so far we’re getting the biggest swings in those Battleground seats that we need to take to win the next general election so I am feeling very positive after what interesting you say you were the sort of sacrificial and put on the media around that night I’m more than happy to do my duty well I know you are but I I think it’s really interesting to know what it feels like in that so you must have a lot of sympathy for james’ position tonight having to sort of well kind of put the best gloss on what’s going on well but I knew what we needed to do and K starma even more importantly knew what we needed to do we needed to speed up changing the labor party and getting it back in the service of working people the conservative party as far as I can tell is speeding up going away from the British people and towards the more you know the more deranged fringes of their own political party Christoper if if I could just come and just reiterate some point that Steve just made labor is doing better in those leave voting areas where it did worst in 2019 there was a lot of talk in 2019 about how the British electorate had been uh there was a fundamental realignment that uh leave voting areas were now permanently um going to vote Tor what we see now is an actual unraveling of that supposed realignment and so it is places that labor did worst in in 2019 that we are now doing best in and it’s a problem that Labour’s had with its votes that it Stacks up votes in places that it doesn’t need to what we can see now and I think this will be the story of these local elections that that will be really important to take away is that that’s no longer happening labor is winning in exactly the places that it needs to win let’s get Joe tman in on this the poster Joe tman and Gareth I know a few results are starting to trickle in so we get chat with you on that in a moment Joe just to reflect on what you just heard there about Labor and about just the direction of travel in those areas well we talked earlier about the idea of big stories coming out of this set of Elections and then the individual stories and Harley Paul is a really good example of one of those individual stories that’s the kind of place as has been said where labor will need to win in a general election if they’re to if get anything close to to uh to getting the uh the kind of performance that the national polls predict at the moment in terms of the bigger story it it is early but my sense is that labor probably aren’t overperforming compared to how they did last year but they’re performing much much better than the last time these uh elections elections came in uh and the question therefore over the next few days is will that uh will that be enough when it comes to the issue of brexit I think it’s worth remembering that brexit of of course was always about much more than simply Britain’s membership of the European Union and it provided an opportunity for people who are dissatisfied distrusting and disapproving of the political process to register that uh that feeling they are now registering that dissatisfaction by moving away from the uh from the conservatives uh the question longer term if labor do get into Downing Street is are th can those votes be taken for granted or are they simply being uh in um in the absence of a better alternative and can I ask you as well you you talked there about so far and is such early days when it comes to the results but so far you don’t see labor sort of storming ahead what would no sorry compar compared to the compared to a year last year’s which they need to do don’t they to have that W Factor ahead of a general election how what would that look like so that so that they could say look at this now we go g now we go National oh I think I think more than 300 individual gains is probably probably the minimum in terms of in terms of a a good story to a good story to tell but local elections are always unusual because of the the weird and wonderful mix of locations and so every party can point to one thing at least that they can spin as a as a positive even if it’s D on the wall moving to no overall control clearly points that rishy sunak is where he needs to be for the election it it all always gets a little bit little bit confusing so I’m I’m hearing now that we’ve taken thork as well which is another voting area the other end of the country um conservative seat I mean the fact that we’re doing well in Harley paol at one end other the country thork at the other end of the country all of these are areas with conservative MPS I mean this is labor on track to win the Battleground seats in particular those are the ones to look at that we need to get a majority house to hear G’s view on this because thork and Harley paol in some ways are similar and that well Harley pool is always a fairly strong labor seat thork has always sort of swayed Andrew McKinley was MP there from I think 1992 until 2010 was it and then it’s been conservative um so it’s exactly the kind of seat the labor has to win to get any sort of majority so I I can see why labor would be very happy with that um Gareth what do you read from those results I think you’ve got a few others as well so on Thor we got to run the council nearly went bankrupt um under the conservatives only a year ago so when um the conservative like to point to Birmingham uh the lab party like to turn around and point back to woking and thork so we’ve got to remember there have been quite big local issues there um in terms of if labor are going to be gaining 300 seats net they’re doing pretty badly at that at the moment because they’ve currently lost six net um so that’s one one piece of bad news for them obviously it’s very early days um one piece of very good news um and out of nowhere this came is that the conservatives have taken their first seat on Newcastle upon timeing Council for 32 years um and in terms of confirmed results Brock borne is a conservative hold no changes Sunderland um labor making gains the conservatives have gone from eight counselors to three so that’s not very good for them uh southt side some extraordinary figures with the independence making lots of gains who who knows if there’s any news from Southtown side to explain that that would be great um and Newcastle yeah the greens um and the conservatives gaining at the expense of Labor um so some fairly mixed results but overall um you it’s quite clear the conservatives are doing badly if you drill down into some of the details of these figures reform are really hurting the conservatives in what some people call the red wall areas and but they’re not hurting the conservatives as much as Yip were in 2015 2016 and of course what the conservatives will say to that is well they managed to win elections in 2015 and 2019 and they nearly won in 2017 despite a very strong ukit presence so there there’s crumbs there for rishy sunak so far um but in reality as as the evening goes on there’s lots of potential for the conservatives to take some pretty big losses and is that particularly if reform start to eat those crumbs well the thing is is that reform can take massive chunks out the conservative votes in areas where the conservatives never win Council seats and it it doesn’t really show up in the overall headline figures if they start doing that in areas like um Lincoln redit and you know Northeast Lincolnshire all these places that we’ve been mentioning over the course of the evening if they start doing that there it’s really going to have an effect if you take 15 20% of the overall vote share away and and that’s coming almost directly from the conservatives you’re going to hurt them um the problem with the Northeast is that some of those Wards despite everything that has gone on with brexit and everything else some of them are so safe labor that no matter how well re formed do when it comes to the actual figur you know the the headline figures we’re not going to see it when you drill down into it they’re having quite an impact well we mentioned Thor Henry Riley um joins us uh lbc’s reporter who’s providing us with an overview of the picture in the east of England the Midlands and the west and quite a few uh votes coming in from Essex at the moment Henry that’s right firstly on thurk um what Gareth was saying interesting to note I mean council tax has gone up by there in some areas by 18% as you mentioned the council went bankrupt which which is part of the reason the fourth um Le voting highly voting local Authority um and this you know it’s it’s a good result for labor there was no overall control currently at the moment but the Tories did win it back in in 2023 so that’s being claimed by labor saying that it shows we’re ready to win a general election Northeast Lincoln very interesting we’ve had six of the 12 results there so half of them um this is currently conservative controlled a third of the seats up for election and we’ve seen four labor gains all from the conservatives we’ve also seen an independent gain from the conservatives there as well and in Colchester we’ve had um again half the results in nine out of 18 um nothing has changed hands there they’ve all stayed the same but the Tes have been pushed to third in three of those seats the greens are claiming one of them uh as a gain but um the the labor counselor who was defeated was initially elected as a green then defected to labor and has now lost her seat as well so uh clear a moving picture but not a good not a good result for the conservatives so far in Northeast Lincolnshire yeah and and all as you said that Colchester remains under no overall control but the picture you’re painting so far and you know we keep having to put that Rider in that it’s very early days at the moment is good news for labor in the East yes so far looking at those results as well as um many of the other results in thork and in south end coming in in esic it looks like a good night for labor Gareth are there elections in Great Yarmouth this year do you know off the top of your head you’re you’re looking a bit quiz they’re certainly not coming through this evening but see I always think that is as all of the East anglian seats Great Yarmouth is one to watch because again in in the Blair Brown years that was a labor seat it’s now got a conservative majority of 18,000 which that was a massive majority to overturn but Brandon Lewis is not standing again so that may give labor an opportunity um but so there aren’t elections in Great Yarmouth it’s a shame because that would have been an interesting one to watch um anyway um I shall invent election results for great and give you them in a moment uh we will take more of your calls in a moment and Christ I think we’re lose are we losing you now I think we might be um that’s up to you well on my on my list I think anyway we’ll decide in a moment if we do if we Jey je thank you for joining us it’s 2:31 on LBC news headlines with Daryl Jackson labors hoping to make significant gains as countings underway following yesterday’s elections the part’s optimistic of winning back the Blackpool South seat in Parliament conservatives are privately suggesting they might lose 500 counselors across England in other news a teenager has been charged with three counts of attempting to cause Grievous bodily harm after three people were injured at a secondary school in Sheffield the 17-year-old boy was arrested on Wednesday following reports of an incident involving a Shar object at Burley Academy and key SNP figures are giving their backing for John swinny to become Scotland’s first Minister nominations for the position close on Monday but Mr swinny could replace Hamza yusf as SNP leader un opposed LBC weather cloudy for most later with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of any sunshine in the far south and Northwest and a high of 21° LBC the e e e leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC 234 on LBC and LBC news it’s Sheila fog and inel with you until 6: a.m. Nick Ferrari is starting an hour earlier so do stay tuned for thank God what thank god oh you think we couldn’t do anymore we could dve go to bed we have a new guest with us on the panel it’s Henry Hill who is a political commentator and acting editor of conservative home because they’re looking for a new editor are you applying Henry yeah well good I’m glad you’re honest and hav’t beaten around the bush well if the circumstances are right and um if theall I’m not a politician so I haven’t practiced that kind of like extend that is that is to your that is to your advantage very goian may I say that answer Michel yeah he’s he’s a very yes no he isir enough people could learn from that couldn’t they James I you’ve been really n to me tonight the you’ve been teasing me about being a deputy and now you’re teasing me about that that’s what I do best T in so many ways uh right let’s go to a call from Tom in Peterboro hello Tom evening you’re good good we are very good thank you what would you like to say uh basically I was um I mean there’s a lot to say I was I’ve been listening for a while and I was quite listen to the Tor and the Tor um Minister talk and and put your friends to the lab party and I’ve never heard so much nonsense in all my life well when Zach palansky was on the green party he was making a lot of sense and I said I just want to say this one thing yeah that’s all I R up to say is that I’m in a family yeah like at least five of us have gone out to vote today and most of us like are traditional labor voters and we’ve all voted green today my my dad was The Merchant Navy my grand devil was a minor and the labor party has completely let us down well over K starma we tried to give him a bit of a chance try giv a benefit of Doubt started off with the pledges and all that and he’s uh at every opportunity he’s let us down and gar is the last straw and and but but to be honest I’m very happy to see the back of the Tories and I know label will win but cuz the Tory party in hopefully will get completely annihilated well they’re not going to get annihilated in peterb if you vote green are they well the thing is well it doesn’t really matter what happens in my constituency to be honest I have absolutely no contact with my local MP anyway but like what what I’m thinking about is the national picture like the lab party are going to come in pretty strong but the fact is the lab party is not about winning an election it’s about what they’re doing in government and I’m not going to allow myself all my family to be taken the Mickey out of by L party that will drop every single pledge that it makes and if if they if they want to go down that road be my guest but you will lose votes to the left and the green party is going to take some of them George Galloway is going to take some of them and a lot of people will just stay home you can’t just you got the next 10 15 years to govern yeah you got and and like it’s not just about winning elections it’s all Al about doing stuff where you in power and if they think they can just take our V for granted they got another thing coming all right um well we’ve got a shadow cabinet minister here who’s heard everything that you’ve said there Tom I mean how on Earth do you answer logic like that well I’m you’re going to get a lot of different people with different views but I’m looking at the results in thork in Harley pool and other parts of the country where we need to take those seats to form a majority and people are coming over to labor I was actually up in peterb um couple of weeks weeks ago Andrew Pak is our parliamentary candidate they’re doing a fantastic job we went and spoke to a group of farmers actually who feel that they’ve been really shared by the current government and we looking to support the labor party Now farmers are almost iconically you know he once would have considered them to be very likly to vote conservative the fact that farmers now are feeling that they’ve been undermined by a government that’s you know they’ve done deals with Australia and New Zealand that has undercut and undermined the welfare standards that farmers in this country have to have to abide by they were promised continuing access to the European markets for their exports instead there’s a whole raft of barriers that have cut off trade 6,000 Farm business have gone bust since 2017 because of this and farming now has the highest suicide rate of any sector in the economy so even an area like farming people are no longer feeling that they can trust the conservatives that doesn’t answer Tom’s question though or even my question because if you’re losing natural labor voters like Tom to the greens in marginal seats like Peterborough which again is another one of these seats if there’s a labor government these seats have to go lab I mean that’s not a brilliant position to be we’ll make our pitch to as many people as we can but from from and you’re going to get individuals with their own views and of course you know people are entitled to them of course they are but where we’re looking at places like thork Harley pool iconic areas where labor lost um parliamentary seats to the conservatives but now we’re taking back the councils with big swing I would say this guy here is a bit of an outlier people are coming back to labor and we’re winning in areas we need to win to be on course to win a majority at the general election manira Wilson for the lib dams this is a big issue for you I think too and I remember last year on local election I I put forward the theory that the greens were now becoming the repository of the Dustbin vote which the liberal Democrats used to be the automatic place for I don’t say that in I suppose I do I’m a if I can if I can tease James I can I can tease you but you understand what I’m saying and we’ve had this from other people tonight as well saying that they’re going to vote green because either they don’t like labor or they want to uh register a protest vote why aren’t you getting these votes well we are getting lots of votes in the areas that we’re competitive and working hard I think with the greens yeah they’ll pick up Council seats are they likely to pick up any parliamentary seats they’re not competitive uh particularly against the conservatives in any parliamentary seats they might even lose the the one they currently hold uh which is Brighton Pavilion um where Caroline Lucas is standing down is the Coalition still partly no I mean I do loads of door knocking and it very rarely comes up anymore um people are voting tactically across the country largely uh where they see the party that’s best placed to get the conservatives out I just want to pick up though one one thing that Tom said you know Tom talked quite a lot about broken promises and the other thing I have picked up uh on the doorstep apart from complete disillusion and anger with the conservatives is there is actually quite a lot of you know plague on both your houses kind of sentiment out there and I think a lot of that comes from the the the chaos and the broken promises and the you know one rule for us and one rule for them uh that we’ve seen over recent years and sadly that’s infected all of our politics and is affecting all political parties and you know we’ve all got a responsibility whichever political party we are as elected representatives to try and and restore hope and trust in our politics because it’s a very dangerous place when lots of people start to just check out all together and say actually you’re all the same I’m bored I’m fed up of you and you know I’m take being taken uh for a ride by everyone all drift to extremes exactly uh let’s talk to thank you Tom for your call Tom and Peter but let’s talk to Liam in ham hi Liam hello I was going to say good evening but I feel a few people say good morning afterwards good morning thank you for all you do you’re welcome he all the many fan that’s the catchphrase that we use he’s a what he’s a four the many fan oh okay go on Liam you’re live on earth far away okay I’ve been working all day um yeah it’s really interesting hearing about all you know having all the different parties on saying that you know disagreeing on like a parliamentary level when it’s about local issues because I do agree with the sentiment that greens likely won’t have a parliamentary seat anymore come the election and even with that living relatively close to Brighton it hasn’t been run very well um from what I have seen and you know friends I have that that live there but I think it’s very you know I voted green before I moved to ham um a year ago um and conservative prior to that and I’m going to be voting labor come the general election better the wind blows in um the thing is I I vote wherever I see the best candidate because as as far as I’m aware at least to me I want to vote for someone who has local issues CU you’re voting them for the local constituency I guess you still have to keep in mind you know the national image but I had a great MP back in pool before I moved a conservative Tory Michael Tom Linson um and he introduced like a it such a small thing but it was like a there was a very big road um that school children myself at the time I was 16 had to cross it was very dangerous and people had accidents he basically just kicked the council into building a bit in the middle to stop you from doing that and then he got my vote at the next election and then greens keep you know stopping infrastructure upgrades and it’s the same with live Dems and I I I wouldn’t sound politically homeless but I feel like at least labor don’t completely oppose you know new water treatment facilities and all of that Liam thank you thank you very much for that um Henry Hill um I think voters like Liam are quite interesting because their votes are up for grabs and the conservatives aren’t really grabbing them at the moment are they well it is important to remember that you know obviously as people who cover the national political picture we always pass these results for what does it mean for the general election and everything else but he’s entirely right A lot of these elections will be fought on local issues and perfectly possible as an MP to to win the vote of a voter who might not notionally back your party because you’ve done something good for them but in terms of what scope local government has actually national government does have a huge role in local councils in fact these days local councils have just control over a relatively small amount of their own budget when it comes to what they get spent on because they’re locked into National priorities and also because of the nature of councils versus the maral elections with the results of which we’re going to get over the weekend the those elections do often hinge on party label much more than I think we’re going to see so yes it’s true the conservatives are conservative councilors even if they have been doing good stuff on the ground I think are going to be struggling because most of them will not have a you know name much name recognition and when those voters are going into The Ballot Box they will simply see the Tory label whereas Andy Street and Ben hin when they’re up for reelection voters are going to go into the ballot box with a much stronger individual idea of who they are and what they’ve done as discreet from the brand well we’ll talk to you more about those Mar elections uh in a moment we’re also going to be speaking with the leader of Reform UK Richard ti so stay tuned for that it’s 2:46 Nick Ferrari at breakfast on LBC the Rwanda plan seems to be closing to a reality to the first migrants ear marked for removal were detained yesterday I think we’re being completely gaslighted about this the number of migrants according to government figures last year just shy of 30,000 but the number such illegal immigrants is actually quite small join me for an extended local election special we’ll bring you all the political reaction and more importantly take your calls so join me Nick Ferrari at an earlier start time of 6:00 only on LBC listen on your radio and on global player LBC have you e e e election Night Live on LBC Henry Hill uh is in the studio with us amongst other people political commentator and acting editor of conservative home can I uh do a a little bit of roleplay with you Henry uh I knew you do that you’re such a child um you are acting editor of the cons of conservative home you revealed at the very beginning that you were going to go for the job right so imagine that I’m interviewing you for the job right and I say to you if if these local election results he’s really glad he came out I’m delighted if these local election results and then the general election results uh proed to be uh sort of an almost near existential Wipeout for the Tories a kind of 2015 for labor but worse how will you report that well the if the general election is a well we’ll say so um I think part of the point of conservative home is that we we we do support the conservative party but we aren’t a party organ and so we are able to actually just say when things are going badly for the party which is often quite liberating compared to the poor conservative you know representative on the panel um not in this particular case but on a very bad night you know they have to do the politic gener they have to do the politician thing where they’re like oh well actually I think you’ll find that this is and and you it’s quite p and what would you what went wrong what produced it oh well I have I would probably have my views on that uh and them well failure to build infrastructure over 20 years destroying the social basis of the conservative party’s support because people can’t get homes or afford to start families would probably be my starting point but I think that the point of the site is that that’s a that’s a conversation and a debate that the party needs to have there would have to be a reckoning and conservative home is if you like sort of has the ring Master role so we would be a place where different elements of the party can come together and have that debate because obviously we’ll have five years at least in which to work it out so we wouldn’t need to come up with something on day one but I’d have my views other conservative members would have their views but there is definitely when you look over the last 14 years and you compare it to New Labor’s 13 years or the conservatives 18 years between 79 and 97 in both those cases although they eventually lost office there was a project and they had clearly done stuff whereas in this case we’ve changed we’ve changed leader so many times we’ve changed message so many times the Electoral Coalition in 2019 was completely different to the one that David Cameron put together in 2010 that chopping and changing the reason for that to be dug into will that produce and perhaps we’re already seeing elements of it in these elections will it produce a kind of sort of empty vessel of a campaign really you know sorry for the boat analogy there but in the general election because if they don’t have a record on which they can lean and which they can place in front of people how can they campaign uh well you you focus on to the extent you have the weaknesses of the labor case lab is currently running with a very very small range of policies they uh remarkably really Rachel re and Jeremy Hunt fighting over a very narrow strip of kind of tax and economic policy territory compared to what you might expect given the polling Gap and the economic situation but R Shak is in a very difficult position because and it’s not all his fault by any means you know he inherited a hospital part of a premier ship but he is in a position as any party is after 14 years of government where if you attack the status quo really strongly voters quite fairly ask well didn’t you build been in power for 14 years right so it’s very challenging position any government that’s seeking re-election after you know 14 years in office is usually in that position the conservatives are no different the question would be whether or not Rishi sunak can generate enough doubt about Sak starm and labor amongst those voters who are willing to give the conservatives a hearing and maybe stick with them and I I find it fascinating and all of you here as as MPS feel um you feel free to comment on it I find it fascinating when parties whichever party it is face that Mega defeat whether it was 2015 whether it was um you know the the the reaction to brexit whether it was Labor in 2019 and you know the and the lib Dems after the Coalition not so much a defeat but the but the the reputational damage in a sense of that did as a as a politician as a party how did you begin to rebuild that how we had to we had to do exactly that didn’t we and and I think there is an analogy between the situation we we were in and if the conservatives lose on that scale it’s it’s a it’s a big if still where they where they will go parties when they lose elections want to go to their comfort zone They want to go where they’re comfortable they don’t want to face the realities of why there’s losing and there’s wipe out as that that’s right but but and it’s what the labor party did when we ended up with Jeremy Corbin you know we we went to a place where we were so alienated from the electors we couldn’t possibly win there had to be a fight to get the labor party back we elected in k starma a leader who changed the party and took us right back to to where the voters are and the results you’re seeing tonight are because of that you’ll also see some voters on the on the farther farther you know farther wings of the left who are uncomfortable with where Labor’s gone because and you know you hear that um but but we’ve gone to where the voters are and the results of what you see the conservatives party is going to have to pick itself up if they’re defeated in that way and fight their way back to the centerr if they want a future in politics but as things look now they’ve effectively set up with you know these popcorns and the the thing that pretty Patel set up they’ve set up their momentum before they’ve even lost they look like they to get to their comfort zone they’re looking at what happened to label with momentum and they they’re rather than learning what not to do They’re copying it and James is that a concern for you well well I I think it’s um as Henry said I’m not going to turn on the button where the the politician start speaking I’m going to try and speak a little bit more straightforwardly in respect of that and I think that the situation with benh is a very interesting situation when we’re discussing this situation because I I don’t know what the results are going to be but let let’s just say that Ben as a Conservative meral candidate in tside wins now those that makes up hle pool is one of the seats that makes up up tside but the Labour party have to win the whole of the all of those seats to get a working majority now the one thing that we we can have we can have a discussion about the the sort of the nuances of meraly and how it’s different from parliamentary seats but the one thing that it shows in my opinion voters are willing to back conservative leaders and conserv hopefully conservative mpes who do who have a record of delivery and an incumbency and a recognition factor and hopefully it’s the principles and I I hate to use the word moral Sheil don’t worry about morals exactly the right person moral but I just want to say that that are important to local people one of the things I feel about politics which has been lost for a long time and sometimes in these discussions we lose it is the power of place the power of where you’re from the power energy that comes from having a representative being part of a wider political and social Community your area that wants to drive forward change now I could point to a number of my colleagues who have got huge incumbent factors all in seats that labor needs to win I was with one and I hope you doesn’t mind name dropping in but I was with one a couple of days ago Peter Gibson in Darlington Peter Gibson is a fabulous MP he’s a fabulous man everyone recognizes him I think you guys probably have an idea of some of the things that he’s brought up there there is nothing in what Peter is doing or how he’s who how he’s seen by his electors that mean he’s not going to get elected because he’s stood on a conservative badge so I totly agree with what what all the panelists says but I don’t agree this generic let’s just make generic political points but if but if you’re but if you’re correct about those those good local individuals those successful local individuals who are conservatives right let’s let’s just say you are it’s perfectly feasible that you are um if you get a very bad general election result what what I’m curious about is in that rebuild process that all of the parties that are represented here tonight have gone through at some point or other I’m curious as to which direction of travel you think I keep using that term but which direction you think the party will go in because it’s far from Clear I I’m going to say this but I don’t think that would happen so let me just put St but let’s just say hypothesize the problem is in Parliament and down here we have too much intellectualizing about politics and too much hypothesizing about which way and that way it comes back down the point that Henry says but it’s real though when it translates into policy and rhetoric and language it’s real but that’s the difference the differen is anybody can talk anybody can say I believe in this I believe in these set of morals what they or these set of principles or these set of policies what matters is delivery what matters is the end product and we are going to see in my view I I think we’ve got an excellent prime minister but we are going to see lots and lots of conservative MPS who have delivered for their constituents we heard that Steve didn’t want that money to come to to B but hopefully I want you to the Mone from hopefully my hopefully my constituents appreciate that and appreciate the incumbency and we’ll vote for positive outcomes and a word from anir Wilson on on your moment was the Coalition as I said earlier on um was that just a matter of time to recover from that or was it more than that um yeah we needed uh time we needed to rebuild our infrastructure we’re a a Grassroots based uh party and over the period of the Coalition obviously we lost so many of our Council seats and therefore our infrastructure on the ground and one of the things we’ve done is really built that up which is why we’ve seen the spectacular results that we’ve seen uh over the last few years with the Parliamentary byelections and local council elections um I’ve also just had some news coming in from Stockport apparently the conservative vote has pretty much collapsed there and uh we’re on course to win the popular vote share in margin want to come in on that quickly and Hazel Grove um Hector says can we have some results please Gareth can we have some results they’re trickling in after over the place so the conservatives are lost Northeast Lincolnshire which is one of the ones we highlighted early on in the evening was quite an important one um the labor have gained Harley pool as we know and thork thork being straight from the conservatives um overall the national picture is looking good for labor of course it’s going to be the individual little victories that are going to muddle things particularly as we get into some of those meral results um but overall the the pattern is is clearly going one way what Happ failing to pick up though um is a bit of a green surge there were a few councils where I thought the greens might do slightly better than they have done and they haven’t really um the lib Dem seem to be doing quite nicely um nothing spectacular yet but I think overall it’s it all seems to be going quite well for them um the lib Dems of course are vulnerable in a few places they do control some councils but there’s no sign yet that that that’s translating into any losses so yeah um results coming in yep looks like Labor’s winning big in Plymouth by the way that would Johnny mer would lose his seat on the results we’re seeing coming in now again it’s one of those bellweather seats where Labour needs to win seats off the Tores to form a majority in Parliament Johnny Mercy won’t lose his seat he is tonight he’s not his seat is it do you want to have a bet or anything I Steve is right that that is the sort of seat that if Labour win that will go yeah if a big word Johnny Merc will no you might not like it James but people are voting the Tories down tonight and there’s a reason on it something no I’m not going to I’m not going to bet come on this yeah so so every election night the I always look at the three PS peterb Plymouth and Portsmouth um however last year that was all a little bit messed up because they had the big tree issue if you remember on our M way I was down there I saw so looking at pouth as a barometer for the council um you to then turn it from Council results into General results might be a little bit but we’re doing better this year than we did last year and the trees are no longer the top issue we are going to I’m afraid uh lose Steve Reed Mana Wilson and James Dy it’s wholesale change on the panel here in the studio uh we have joining us conservative MP Ben Spencer and labors Joe Stevens and also after the news straight after the news we’ll be talking to the leader of Reform UK Richard TI he’s live at the Blackpool South count and I think has some interesting things to say I’ve just been tipped off it’s 3:00 on your radio on global player and play LBC leading Britain’s conversation this is [Music] LBC from Global’s Newsroom I’m Daryl Jackson labers optimistic of winning the Blackpool South byelection it was triggered following the resignation of former Tor MP Scott Benton after a lobbying Scandal senior Tories admit they are braced for a loss meanwhile counting is underway after seven local council elections in England with around a third of the results expected overnight former advisor to the conservatives Sama sha was asked what it could mean for the Prime Minister if the party suffers heavy defeats in the local polls what does a disaster look like I mean 500 500 plus is not good is there a number where it could trigger some kind of leadership election I don’t think the appetite is there but we’ll see the results are trickling in labors gained heartly poor from no overall control lb sees Alan zinski is there we do have the official declaration and it’s actually even better than they were hoping for at the start of the evening they were talking about maybe winning five or six of the 12 seats in play here tonight well they’ve taken nine the independent candidates have taken two and the conservatives have only H taken one of the seats so a very very good night for labor here in Harley pool votes have also been cast for 11 Regional Mayors and dozens of police and crime Commissioners not all counts are taking place tonight though with some being locked away until the weekend in other news dozens of people have been arrested at a protest blocking a coach taking Asylum Seekers to the Biby stock Home in southeast London there were clashes with police and protesters in pekham earlier the arrests were on suspicion of a variety of offenses including obstructing the highway and assaulting police key SNP figures are giving their backing for John swinny to become Scotland’s first Minister nominations for the position close on Monday but Mr swiy could replace ham USF as SNP leader un opposed the woman who would have been his main rival for the job Kate Forbes announced she wouldn’t be running yesterday former s SMP Westminster leader Ian Blackford says the pair would make a great team John is the right person to lead the government Kate is someone has demonstrated her talance previously in government as Finance Minister and I think what we’re going to get is a strong team team SNP team Scotland with John S leading that but with K part of that government LBC weather cloudy for most later with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of the sunshine in the far south and the Northwest and a high of 21° from Global’s Newsroom for LBC I’m Daryl Jackson this is LBC from Global leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC hello very good morning it’s 4 minutes past 3 on LBC and LBC news welcome if you’ve just joined us uh you’re joining a program I would’t say devoid of results uh so far but I would say subd devoid of results um we’re waiting for the black pool South byelection result as well as local Council results and one or two others uh we’ll bring any of them to you as soon as we can uh we’ve got two new panel members in the studio with me with us sorry conservative MP Dr Ben Spencer he’s MP for runny me and waybridge and Joe Stevens is uh Labor’s um now I haven’t got here it is Shadow wealth secretary in labor MP for Cardiff Central is that right that is actually I can give you a result if you like we’re short and we’re calling Rushmore as a labor gain now that’s that’s in s isn’t it it is and uh it’s never been a labor majority Council in the past obviously it’s a military um area and just shows the change that uh the labor party has made well we’ll come we’ll come back to both of you in just a moment but we’re joined on the line from the count at Blackpool South by Richard TI the leader of Reform UK Richard very good morning to you now um i’ I’ve been watching on my TV screen here an interview doing you look quite chirpy um what do you think is going to happen in Blackpool south I mean you’re not are you going to predict a reform win uh good morning Ian I think everybody knows that this is uh going to be a labor Victory that’s no surprise to anybody has been the case really for many weeks but the the question is who comes second and I can confirm that it is Nip and tuck it is too close to call for second place between reform UK and the conservatives being an optimist in politics I’m obviously hoping that we’re just going to take it from our perspective this is by some considerable margin going to be our best byelection result we’re going to significantly outperform our national polling average and yeah that’s the trend I think there’ll probably be a result in about 20 to 30 35 minutes is the expectation here but what this is showing in frankly is that in the north and indeed in the Midlands we’ve had some very good council elections in the Northeast in Sunderland we’re rapidly becoming the opposition to labor in the north of England and elsewhere and I think even in Wales there’s a poll out I think I today or yesterday putting you on 15% and the conservatives on 18% what went through your head when you saw that poll result because I I can’t IM if if I’d said that to you a year ago I think if you were being honest You’ thought well there’s no way we’re going to do that well well as I said here and you have to be an optimist in politics but we’ve made huge progress in recent months and what went through my head was uh was Joy actually and Delight that’s the closest Gap at 3% of any poll it’s a ugv poll and obviously there’s a range of polls we all know that so uh let’s wait and see but the real poll is of course on Election Day election nights as the results are counted and so far for reform UK uh you know we’re delighted by the progress we’re making we know that first pass the post is is difficult but we deal with the electoral system we’ve got but whilst it’s tough on the way up it’s also brutal on the way down for the conservatives why have you only stood in one in six Council seats throughout the country is it because I mean I understand it is difficult for any party to fill every slot because you have to find the candidates but was has this been intentional or would you have prefer for all of them we’re delighted that those 260 odd candidates that have stood but our focus is always we’ve said on making sure that we can stand in every seat in England Scotland Wales about 630 seats so yes that’s been our Focus as a as a small growing party there’s only limited resources there’s no secret in that and so that’s that’s been our key Focus but also we’ve got some some great marrow candidates and the maril results are going to be very very interesting again particularly in the north of England we’ve got a a big eye on the northeast on greater Manchester East Midlands so yeah there’s there’s a lot to go for and uh we’re also very excited by what may be the possibilities in the greater London assembly elections where we’re optimistic that we’re going to get uh we’re going to get some members elected there in the GLA we have Joe tman with us a renowned pollster he’s got a question for you Joe uh referring to Sunderland which you mentioned Richard uh reform UK’s performance is obviously up significant there but you’re still a long way behind the equivalent shares that ukip achieved in 2015 and 2016 in the same Wards do you think that uh do you think the reform UK would benefit from having an issue like brexit under a banner under which people could unite and obviously you have immigration but it doesn’t appear to be appealing in the same way that brexit was well it’s interesting Joe but of course ukip had been going for 20 years then and it takes time to build a brown there’s still I don’t know there’s still probably a third of the country uh who probably only think of politics for a couple of minutes a week I know that sounds strange to uh you know political uh AFF fiction Aros but that’s the reality so look given where we are uh the progress we’re making how new this brand name is of Reform UK frankly we’re delighted with those results we beat the Tores in 16 of 25 Wards in Sunderland which is a labor stronghold and we came very close in one Ward to catching up with labor so you know really strong progress and we’re delighted with that we’ve got other results it’ll be interesting to see what happens in barnesley and elsewhere as those results come in let let’s assume that you do well tonight all all over the country your opinion poll ratings continue to gradually climb is that not the time for Nigel farro to come back into proper politics rather than playing as a broadcaster and if he decided to do that does that mean you automatically have to stand aside as leader of Reform UK he I’ve always said that the more help that Nigel can give the better and he’s got a big decision to make does he want to get stuck into full-time politics again he thought he’d uh he’d finished with that does he want to stand again and so these are you know Big Life life-changing decisions for Nigel uh clearly the election is coming uh at a fair Pace it may well for all we know be a summer election so I think you can assume that we’ll be um you know Nigel will make that decision soon and the more help he can give frankly the better I’ve always said that you know it’s it’s a massive job trying to grow a small party we’re making great progress but the more help the better in doesn’t he have to make that decision though within the next few weeks because the the election is I mean I think probably going to be November but it could be earlier than that um surely he needs to sort of put up or shut up um I think that obviously the clock is ticking to be uh to be candid and we uh we’re very much preparing for a summer election I think the percentage I think people are are underplaying the potential for that and uh any party ourselves included we can’t be called unprepared so that we’re very much preparing for an election as early as the 27th of June or the 4th of July does it not concern you that the more votes that you take away from the conservatives uh the bigger the size of the labor majority but there’s no difference between the two main parties they’re two variants of socialism high taxes High government spending Mass immigration unnecessary huge regulation Pro Net Zero there’s no you can’t tell the difference between the two the reality is we’ve got no growth we’ve got the longest recession per person and that’s what actually matters to individuals and households the longest recession per person for 70 years it’s some two years long now and continuing as I say there’s no growth anywhere we’ve got to reform uh the way that our economy has run we’ve got to reform the way our health care has run we’re the only party in with an ambition to get to zero waiting list in two years and and democracy is much better when there are more alternatives more choices more debate about some of the difficult issues and the challenges the country faces Richard T thank you very much for joining us here on LBC that’s Richard Ty the leader of Reform UK he’s live at the count in Blackpool South we hope to get the result well well he was predicting sometime in the next half an hour um Henry Hill you you heard that said two two I mean Joe Stevens issued a hollow laugh when he said that the two main parties were almost identical he he’s got a certain an appeal hasn’t he and his party have got a certain appeal to I would say more traditionally minded conservative supporters yeah I think one of the problem one of the problems reform has is that actually there’s a misalignment between their policy offer and the big gap I think on the right which is voters that the conservatives won in 2019 now Boris Johnson delivered that big result by uh offering voters a quite different model of conservatism one that was uh well there was brexit obviously but also more focus on public spending and I think that kind of left on economics but right on Law and Order and culture is is is the big gap in the market on the right for a political party and yet reform UK is partly I think because of its makeup and who’s founded it pitching very much on the kind of like thatcherite model and I don’t think that you would have caught Nigel farage uh if he were in that interview in that position denouncing you know both parties as socialists or whatever I think that that’s just a slightly misjudged attack the the reform are capitalizing on the fact that there are there is a lot of disaffection with the conservatives because no matter what section of the conservative party you’re from there’s lots to be disappointed about about this past few period in office right um but I think they’re going to do a lot less well than they perhaps could because they haven’t actually calibrated their offer to where the Gap is and Joe Stevens after the break we will talk more about that whole well the perception that there isn’t enough difference between labor and the conservatives again comes through a lot on the calls to my show I have to say before that though you mentioned Rushmore when you first joined us at Labor is describing the result there as truly historic and Henry Riley lbc’s uh reporter who’s been keeping an eye on the east of England for us amongst other places can tell us a bit more about Rushmore yeah lab very pleased about this Sheila good morning um it’s been run by the conservatives for the past 24 years Rushmore the home of the British army it contains ERS shot and so really this is being touted as a huge success by the labor party they’ve never had a labor majority Council there um and it is a strong conservative constituency Leo doy is the MP for alers shot labor I think will have their eye on that at a general election though he does have quite a big majority I think around 16,000 uh labor saying this is a truly historic result the home of the British army it’s never had a labor majority Council um they also add that this is a result rishy sunak cannot ignore it is time for a general election one of the other results Sheila that I’ve been keeping an eye on is Colchester um in Essex that has now completed we have the final results for that um and it was pretty much unchanged just one result uh one gain for labor meaning that it’s still no overall control Henry thank you very much um Ben Spencer aler shot not too far from you I don’t think anyway in your constituency um for that Council to go labor in that area I mean that’s quite astonishing isn’t it well I think there’s there’s three points I’d like to make firstly um it’s early days in looking at the results across the country I mean what was it less than 9% I think of Ward results are in so it’s it’s quite easy to sort of pick um and sort of overdrawn interpret in terms of what’s what’s what’s coming through the other thing is that the last time these wars were up was 2021 which is very much a high Watermark it was after uh the vaccine roll out we had sort of vaccine bounce so this is an unusual set of Elections um I mean I I feel sorry you know very sorry for you know the the conservative counselors who’ve lost their seats in fact you know all counselors who who lose their seats resp of this because they’re you know all of them across the border incredible public servants um and we we’ll see what happens going forwards we’ll get some thoughts from Joe Stevens as well after the break uh Shadow Welsh secretary and labor MP for Cardiff Central Joe tman Gareth Knight still here as well and Henry Hill uh of conservative home um and political commentator as well the time is now 3:16 Nick Ferrari at breakfast on LBC the Rwanda plan seems to be posing to a reality to the first migrants ear marked removal were detained yesterday I think we’re being completely gaslighted about this the number of migrants according to government figures last year just shy of 30,000 but the number such illegal immigrants is actually quite small join me for an extended local election special we’ll bring you all the political reaction and more importantly take your calls so join me Nick Ferrari at an earlier start time of 6:00 only on LBC listen on your radio and on global player LBC e e e this is LBC e e leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC 20 3 here on LBC Sheila fogy and I andelle with you taking you through till 6:00 a.m. when Nick Ferrari will take over we have with us uh on the panel Henry Hill from conservative home conservative MP Ben Spencer and labors Joe Stevens now I’ve been accumulating some really good WhatsApp and text questions over the last few hours unfortunately some people may have already gone to bed but they can always listen Maybe not maybe Mark I think has got one of the best ones Ian will you all be going clubbing later listen I’ve barely been clubbing in my life so it’s not going to start now I’m I’m not really a clubbing person I’m I’m I’m going to Good Morning Britain after this Friday um Dave in roule says hi en and team looking good on full HD on my TV well that’s a relief that’ll be my fake tan yeah I don’t have fake time by the way um which result do you think will be the biggest signal on how the general election will go well let’s start with Gareth because he’s the expert on these things um if labor win the teas Valley then I think that will Trump everything else um all indications are however that the conservatives are probably going to hold it um that’s that that is by far to me the biggest actually no the biggest one would be if the conservatives win the mayor of London but in realistic terms I would say that labor winning te’s Valley is the is the big one and someone’s got a question for you here this is Gary in Grimsby great to have a mariner on the show I gather that’s you yeah uh what time can we expect Grimsby and CLE thorp’s results that’s a question the whole nation is gagging to hear answered well they’re all coming in right now and the conservatives lost overall control of Northeast Lincolnshire um so the the results are coming in that’s a that’s a big disappointment for the conservatives they spent a long time trying to get control of that Council and they finally got control of it and there’s no doubt that there’s National swing in Play there and those two constituencies for a parliamentary election quite important in fact another news channel um has actually decided that Grimsby and cleor should be the focus of all of their attention for the next few months really yeah but we don’t talk about them do we no we don’t no Joe Stevens I’ve been threatening to talk to you for a few minutes now about um that accusation from Richard TI but I must tell you it comes through quite a lot on our call or calls on our phone ends as well that there isn’t enough between labor and the conservatives uh to trust you with their vote and that they’re going elsewhere well I thought it was an interesting take from Richard Ty I’m not sure Ben or I would agree with any of it but but actually what we’re seeing is vote shedding from conservatives directly to labor um and actually the the reform I think the reform vote is is a an indication of the collapse of the Tory party essentially that Richi Su lost Ro of his own party but you’ve been losing to the greens perhaps not to the same degree but there have been some losses to the greens there as well and the greens are again it comes through a lot on calls that those people who would be traditionally labor now feel a bit homeless politically are looking to to the greens I think greens pick up votes in local council elections it doesn’t translate into general elections I’ve done a lot of campaigning um over the last six weeks in Bristol where it’s a straight labor green fight um and people who are voting Green in the locals there are saying to me but we’ll vote labor in the general election so I don’t think there’s a a correlation that you can read right across on that how do you read that Henry Hill what the the claim that there’s not enough between the two I think I think for some it’s it’s it’s it’s true enough right I mean look at the economic debate I think is the best example of this Jeremy Hunt and Rachel Reeves really compared to where the polls are and you know they’re fighting over a very narrow strip of tax and economic Poli policy territory and I think that’s because both parties have realized sorry I’m L my voice a bit isn’t that because economic circumstance but but he found his voice I found my voice I finish the point but um but that’s true but that but the response to that is telling right in that taxes are at historic highs public services are extremely stretched the next five years are going to be extremely difficult you’re going to have local councils start going bankrupt even after they’ve been allowed to sell all their assets uh we’re going to have to answer what we do about social care and I think both parties have realized that without some very radical break somewhere there’s no way out of that trap neither party has that radical answer yet and so what we’re seeing is kind of the politics of the precipice basically trying to find a way to just keep the show on the road and it’s understandable I think that voters might be frustrated by that because whatever whether you’re left or right whever part of your country you’re in large parts of this country’s political economy aren’t working yeah and and I know you’re Keen to come in on this Joe tryman um the reality as well is voters need something to grab hold of don’t they as a reason to vote for a particular party yes but often that won’t be based on policy and I think uh to describe there’s no difference is is overly simplistic in a number of directions those of us who’ve been around long enough to have worked on the 1997 general election will remember in the run up to that the discussion of blism this idea that Blair and major were so close to one another in terms of their policies there’s nothing to choose between them but where there was a big difference between Blair and major was in terms of how the personality ities of the parties were viewed and I think that’s a really important thing here because even if and it is to be discussed but even if you have policies that are perceived by the uh uh perceived by the electorate to be very similar to one another across the main parties the people promising to deliver those parties deliver those policies for the parties are viewed extremely differently and whereas one party is viewed not overwhelmingly positively but certain in net positive terms and is seen as trustworthy and is seen as United and is seen as competent and in contrast you have the government which is seen as the opposite of all of those things it means that there are big divisions on which the electorate can make decisions is there any way back here at Dr Ben Spencer from from that description because I think you’d agree it’s an accurate one would you I I think there’s a few things going on I mean firstly I that you know one of the messages and I’ve been around campaigning across the country uh especially my patch is that like my consti says to me look you know we’re fed up at a Psycho Drama Westminster uh you know we want to see you guys focusing on delivering which is what we’re doing but it’s not cing through I think as much as it should do um and and I think um you know that that’s something that we do need to to get Beyond in terms saying you know we’ve all of us have been through the meat grind over the past few years in terms of dealing with the pandemic and the the long sort of tal of impact on that that you know invasion of Ukraine energy crisis you know where you go from that and we’re in a difficult situation and people are hurting uh you know all of us have had a difficult time is it right is it right in those circumstances then that so much parliamentary time and Leadership time and policy time is given on the boates I well I think it’s absolutely critical to to many people and I think one of the most fundamental things of our country in terms of delivery is that we control our borders I think it’s totally uh we we cannot concede border control to criminal gangs I mean that’s mad I mean what I will say you already have been you have you know yeah 71 have another rehearsal of the r argument I’m afraid um I think we’d better move on to a caller B not everybody was listening to the last one well we’re still going to move on to a call at Bob in tumbridge Wales hello Bob hello good morning good morning um thing I can’t understand is this we got a mass immigration problem and um I’m not V for Tori because terrible but weic um they ROM situation for example now I spoke a lot of lab people are voting labor and they don’t understand that if labor get in they’re going to overthrow it get rid of it nothing’s being done about the immigration problem and could you just I don’t know if you know the answer we’ve got a quot of how many um M we take into this country I don’t know what it is a quota but that’s got to be for that so when they keep using these terms asum Seekers they’re not asum Seekers if the quotes one up because if you come from a say for example right you go to a next country where you get um um analyze and you’ll find you’re in a safe haven these people travel across to Europe and they they get into the country now you’ve just argued against yourself because you say you’re against the conser the conservatives but you seem to be one policy no that one policy that he he um he bought in I agree with that but what I don’t understand is why label wants to get rid of something when we’re trying to stop it and then want to get rid of it all right Joe why do you want to get rid of it because it doesn’t work I mean you know it’s cost half a billion pounds and one person one person has volunteered to go to Rwanda um they’ve been given £3,000 to do so the British taxpayer going to be paying for their accommodation and food for the next five years they might as well have offered to throw in the plane as well to get them there you know it’s it’s a con it’s a gimmick it won’t work and even if it did work it would only deal with 1% of the total number of Asylum Seekers that are currently in the system we do have we do have an an alternative so cracking down on criminal Smuggler gangs with this crossborder police unit ending the hotel use so recruiting thousand National Crime agency already doing back the National Crime agency have had their budget cut by the conservative governments so you know at the time when they should be doing the most work their budget has been cut so we’ve set out our plan for how we’ll deal with it it it’s costing 8 million a day to keep people in hotels because there’s a near you know by the end of this year there’ll be 100,000 people in the Asylum system that’s got to be dealt with weel you don’t want them on barges where do you want them then we want to process it we want to process people quickly so that people who are not entitled to stay in the UK can be want lot of things but it’s all sort of jammed today and you’re not able to say how you going to be able to do that I just set out exactly how we’d do that so recruiting a thousand people to clear that backlog in the home office the done and theog is coming down it’s what it’s projected to be 100,000 100,000 people by the end of the year well it was 180,000 before but still 100,000 people and and they’re stuck you Adit they’ve cut it by 40% so they’re stuck and one person has voluntarily gone to Rwanda so the Rwanda gimmick is not going to work this is not a serious plan to deal with what is clearly a very serious problem Ben I mean this is why I think people um recognizing uh the the problems of Labor so we’ve got a situation where essentially you know the I’m just amazed at the arguments that that Joe’s trying to make which is the Randa plan hasn’t worked yet to lab done everything they could to try and stop it and are one of the main factors and delays to actually get it starting and then Labor’s solution is well we’ll do what the conservatives doing we’ll just do it better uh and it’s just it’s just meaningless it couldn’t be done any worse could it well it’s very easy in opposition to go well we’ll just click our fingers and we’ll fix it and we’ll just renegotiate the treaties again again and it will work better can you explain to me Ben how the Rwanda plan is going to clear the Asylum backlog because it will you know the court of appeal said a 100 people can go to Rwanda I think there’s an argument about whether it might not be 300 people maybe it’s going to take you a hundred years to get rid of that backlog of people in the Asylum system through the ruanda plan explain it to me fun fundamentally the random plan is to solve a problem which is what you do uh when you have people who don’t have status in the UK and where they go um it is is solving that issue um in terms well because we we’re using a third country to to discharge our Asylum duties um you know with and when we have people who the problem we have right now as you well know is that if somebody’s processed and it’s it’s deemed that they they don’t have right to as in the UK um if we don’t have a returns agreement with the country that they say they’ve come from or they just don’t say where they’ve come from Full Stop we’ve got nowhere to put them and in effect they stay by default this is a way of solving that problem you know I speak to people in dors all the time about this when they say why is illegal immigration so difficult you know can’t you just send them back and they go well well well where you know you’ve been in government for 14 years and the system is completely broken that’s under your watch and and Rwanda is not going to solve that so so why haven’t you supported our plan to deal with immigration because we’ve not supported your Rwanda plan because it won’t work we haven’t tried it yet we need to leave it there just for now because we’re going to go to the news headlines Henry Hill uh is leaving us now thank you very much indeed for for being best of luck with the job interview when it we’ll be joined in a few moments by full disclosure my local MP lib MMP Sarah olne the time is 3:33 I’m not remembering how I vote 3:33 I’m I’m Daryl Jackson results are starting to trickle in as votes are counted following elections across England and Wales yesterday labors celebrated the First Council gain it’s taken heartly Paul which had been under no overall control they’ve also held Newcastle Sunderland and South IDE the conservatives have held Brock Bor elsewhere the foreign secretary Lord David Camerons visited Kei and met with Ukraine’s President Vladimir zelinski it follows a government’s commitment to spend at least 2.5% of GDP on defense and it looks like John swinny could be unopposed in the race to become Scotland’s next first Minister the snp’s former leader has confirmed he’ll Run for the job again LBC weather cloudy for most latest with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of any sunshine in the far south and Northwest and a high of 21° this is LBC e e leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC uh we are joined as I said a moment ago by Sarah olne the liberal Democrat mp uh my local MP in fact in Richmond so you have to do all the interviews with Jo for full balance s Sarah wouldn’t like me to do all the interviews first time I interviewed we had we had a bit of a row didn’t we remember I can’t remember what it was about but I remember that I was being particularly obnoxious she’s over it nowly obious and still with us is Joe Stevens Shadow Welsh secretary and labor MP for Cardiff Central and Dr Ben Spencer conservative MP for running meat and waybridge and just to remind you uh we are here with you until 6:00 this morning at which point at Nick Ferrari will take over we are getting a fair few results coming in and one that’s just come through is that labor you had good news from Rushmore Joe Stevens but uh you’ve lost control of Olden reports that you’ve lost control of Olden with Gaza a factor and Kia starmer’s uh LBC interview with Nick Ferrari at the labor conference um put on the leaflets of independent opponents uh you might recall that was an interview in which K starma seemed to suggest Israel absolutely has the right to cut off electricity and water I mean he some days later I think it was tried to you know explain that comment differently how big an issue has Gaza been for you know when you’ve been out talking to voters it must be something that they’ve asked you to engage with them about I have to be honest I expected it to be a bigger issue than it has been in the areas that I’ve been door knocking in but it has come up on the doorstep um I think that people are um reflecting on where opposition is now and I think at the start of you know after that awful attack on the 7th of October Kia took a very strong line um and the right position I think at that point um things have developed since then um I think there’s not a lot of difference now in terms of where um people want us to be and where we are and certainly calling for an immediate ceasefire getting Aid into Gaza um you know the icj rulings all of that well because I think at the point that it happened you know it was a an encroachment a terrorist attack into Israel with the death of I think 14400 people and hostages taken of whom well over a 100 are still being held we don’t even know if some of them are still alive I absolutely think it was the right position to take at that point but you know we don’t ever take votes from anybody for granted ever and it’s clear we have lost some support amongst Muslim communities we are listening and it isn’t just Muslims actually it’s it’s it’s people who just are deeply concerned about that whole Israel Gaza issue and particularly about the bombardment of Gaza yeah lot there’s a lot of concern I think right across the population about what is happening in Gaza um but we want to obviously want to regain that support and we are listening to people and you know what we really hope is that there can be a ceasefire that Aid can get in that hostages are released and that we can come to um you know the start of a political process because that is the only way in which there will be a solution to this for a two-state solution are you surpris I mean here we are talking about oldum in a local election campaign and an issue such as Gaza and Israel has has had its impact on that on that vote are you surprised at that well in Olden we have been losing seats at every local election for the last few um last few election Cycles we lost seats in 21 in 22 and in 23 so there OB wanting to pick those that won’t that majority we will yes but and that’s a natural labor area isn’t it well you know it has been a natural labor area but is not a natural labor area and we’ve we’ve just taken control of the council so you’re seeing directory to labor switches and then you’re seeing some labor vote going to Independence in this case come a general election people might vote a different way back to that promiscuity that Joe tryman was talking about I know you wanted to come in on this chair yes that’s right I think I think it’s a really important point to remember that it’s very easy to judge and speculate on the importance of Gaza at the moment in a second order election as the situation stands Where We Are but when the general election takes place which we assume will be Autumn uh perhaps November the situation in Gaza could be substantially different and so uh in either direction and so its impact could be greatly greatly reduced but also when you look at the underlying data on people’s attitudes to Gaza right the way across the uh across the entire crisis we have seen support for both the people of Israel and the people of Gaza there’s support for the Palestinian people and and the Israeli people it’s not one or the other it’s not seen in those terms and I think that presenting things from all parties in terms of wanting to see an end to hostilities minimization of Civilian casualties release of uh release of hostages and ultimately peace in the region is what everyone on all sides wants and how you achieve that is is the challenge is the challenge and for the debate but most people aren’t actually going to be interested in that challenge and debate in the up to a general election and so I think I think it’s very easy to to overstate the importance of that and I come from in my constituency it’s hugely hugely important as well and so it it can affect things in different ways uh Dan Bloom from the political Playbook says I’m not saying local election night is slow but also the BBC just interrupted its coverage to watch the entire Declaration of one Council ward in Plymouth we we haven’t been reduced to that no and this is why conversations about fake tan and letting your hair go gray are really we’ve got a lot of those coming up I can assure um Gareth knight uh any results to make it less slow well just um commenting on Alder um I I I had that down as likely to go to no overall control labor only needed to lose one seat there I mean there’s there’s quite a few of these um changes where we saw the same thing with Harley pool um they only needed to gain a couple of seats to take control so I would park those to a certain degree and I would be looking more at at places like Rushmore and you you drill down into some of the figures there some of the victories labor have had there are are quite unbelievable enormous swings in their favor um but equally yeah you look at places like um Plymouth which is a key swing area labor doing extremely well you look at um Peter BR um labor doing fairly well um I think that’s a a little bit more mixed but again Peter was a big area with a very large Muslim popultion um so lots of mixed results but overall it’s it’s very much going Labor’s way but I go right back to what we said at the beginning of the evening the conservatives have really spun this election well they have set a very very high bar for labor to to reach um and you fair play to them that’s what they do I do think that we need to carry out this this is a very good night for labor it’s just so far there’s you haven’t quite got those big headlines yet may I interrupt with a result from Plymouth Earl uh in the uh Council result there has seen remember we are on camera you do that that was merely to do with the pronunciation all right okay um it wasn’t a commentary on the location no yeah simply no idea even if it’s pronounced Earl so apologies from anyone from Plum Andor Earl uh but but there a it’s been an independent gain from conservatives independent one with 39% of the vote the conservatives got 15% of the vote that is a 45% drop in their vote since last time which I think is is worthy of an interruption you’re always worthy of an interruption I’m tempted to ask Ben Spencer to explain that one but I wouldn’t be so cruel so could do you can get a a sort of a sort of half non answer from me because I think with with these local elections each of these Wards is going to be huge contextual factors and the fact it’s going conservative independent I think is a really good example of that uh so I’d be interested to know what’s what’s happening at WS what’s been going on Mur probably to make that move well well you know there’s there’s lots of factors like that that have big influence I was reading earlier on that the turnout um and there’s a there’s a couple of bits of turnout news the turnout in the Liverpool City region meril um uh vote was really low something like 19 and a half percent and black the Blackpool South byelection more significantly I think turn out over 30% any thoughts on that Gareth or Joe that’s pretty much in line with the byelections that we’ve seen uh recently it’s not as high as as the ones at the end of last year but it’s pretty much in line with what we’ve seen previously you know that little minks Richard Ty that we spoke to do you remember what he said that the timing would be on the result in Blackpool sou I can’t quite remember he said I think 30 to 35 minutes this was at the bit at 3:00 it’s now 3:45 it’s now expected at 6:00 a.m. oh so I don’t I don’t know what to put that down as he said they’re a young political part that’s typical of Nick Ferrari he’s going to steal the Limelight from us isn’t he we could have spend the next two hours Rich Tice predictions that’s that’s the lesson from that be a could it be a recount around second and third can you do a recount for second and third if you aren’t losing your deposit I don’t think you can can generally speaking I mean I’ve never seen that at an election you obviously can have a recount for the to win and you can have one for the deposit and most of the by elections tend to be deposit Recs if it’s within a couple 100 votes you could have a what they call a bundle check which is where the Agents of the candidates physically pick up the bundles and flick them just to make sure all the xes are in the right place and if they find a few then you get the recount but it’s pretty rare that you would have a a recount between second and third not quite a hanging chad moment course s only it could be the liberal Democrats trying to save their deposit demanding a recount yeah I’m I’m not sure I have no news from blackf seen evidence of many liberal Democrats on the streets of Blackpool canvasing it wasn’t wasn’t a seat that you T I haven’t personally been there so I couldn’t I couldn’t if Sarah me for byelection it isn’t a byelection worth knowing about uh right we’ll continue our conversation in just a moment we’ll come to more of your calls we got a couple lined up to go to it’s 3:46 LBC e e election Night Live on LBC text 8485 moment of 348 on LBC Welcome to our election Night Live program and on LBC news uh let’s go around the panel and we introduce them if you’ve just joined us we have Sarah ol who’s libdem MP for Richmond Park Dr Ben Spencer is MP for Ronnie me and waybridge which I always think sounds one of the most idilic constituencies in the country with with that name SP am I right SP I thought You’ say was this is Lely I live I live not far away M yes I’m the MP for nether Wallop Central Joe Stevens is Labor’s cult Shadow culture no weal used to be cult used to be culture Shadow wealth secretary and MP for Carter Central and Joe tman from Delta pole and Gareth Knight our elections analyst um uh let’s go to a caller first it’s Ben in Cambridge hello Ben good good morning I um I’m actually now in Central bed so I’ve just had my first um local elections where in my new location and uh and I’ve actually voted for the first time ever I voted for independent rather than conservatives so it sounds like I’ve sort of done the same with as many other across the country so far but one of the things that that made me vote for this particular independent was the only person who actually um introduced himself came to my door knocked on the door introduced himself as a local candidate running as an independent and went through a few local um local things that he had um sort planned up and and it was actually an incumbent as well so uh and I had nothing from the conservatives nothing from labor nothing from the them none of the parties had had anyone knocking on any doors No Leaf food through doors Etc you wouldn’t know there was even a local election going on in my ward do you know why that would be um I I would guess from targeting seats I I would personally well this is where I always feel sorry for parties when somebody call comes on and understandably is a bit vexed as to why they haven’t received any literature it actually takes man power or person power whatever you’re supposed to call it nowadays feet and party volunteers to deliver leaflets and in some areas a particular party will have a lot of helpers and they can deliver right throughout the constituency but even in relatively safe seats for parties it still can be quite difficult to cover the whole constituency I mean we’ve got three MPS here am I am I talking sense here absolutely yes it is it is really difficult I mean I I’ve got about I think 130,000 individual people in my constituency it’s I can’t remember how many households but it is really really hard and I we got lots of leaets I’m sure you did you got lots of long drives to lot of a lot of long drives um but it is it is really uh it is much more difficult I think Than People imagine and I do go outd door knocking regularly but people are frequently not at home so I could have done the same street several times in the course of a year and you hold Central events don’t you as well like where people can come to you abely yeah I mean we we do what we can but you’re absolutely right and Richmond part we got a lot of volunteers it’s a it’s a you know constituency we’ve got a lot of strengthened so for places where we’ve got fewer volunteers it’s it’s that much harder and Ben for a constituency like yours if we were talking maybe 30 40 years ago your constituency party would probably have a four figure sum of members now I don’t you don’t need to reveal how many you’ve got at the moment um but I suspect it’s probably a lot lower than that and that impacts on the number of people who will go not just leiting but I mean canvasing is not something that every party volunteer wants to do because it does take a certain amount of courage to knock on a stranger’s door and ask how they’re going to vote doesn’t it we we’ve got fantastic um Volunteers in my uh constituency Association I do a shout out since you’ve asked me to Tanya who’s our Deputy chair political who’s um been running our local campaigns in R me and waybridge I’d say two things I think it’s incumbent on all mpes to communicate to their constituents in the most effective way and it’s a whole host of different ways some of it’s door knocking which I think personally is I most enjoy is the most important but leaflets social media Etc but I would say to Ben um if if we can persuade you if you want um and if you could contact me because I’m sure we’d really appreciate your help I don’t know what the situation is in central beds but if you email me um get get in contact with me or get in contact with the party I’m sure we can put you in contact with the local conservatives um if you want to help um if there’s an issue where you are in terms of getting a message out Joe how do you because your constituency is very different different from these two but presumably the same issues arise yeah I mean you can have knocked doors on a street 11 15 20 times and you know you won’t always get people in so um sometimes people will say to me oh you’ve never knocked my door before and I have they just that they weren’t in but you know this the are it is really tough to get tens and tens of thousands of leaflets out to knock all those doors um and as the point has been made you know not everybody wants to go and knock doors they might make phone calls they might do social media not everybody wants to do the kind of hard pounding the streets um Ben thank you very much indeed for that let’s go to another caller it’s Robbie in charford hello Robbie good morning everybody so my my question is and Sheila mentioned um just before the break uh some what I would reflect on a slightly depressingly low turnouts in both mayoral and local elections in you and I had a conversation earlier in the week around how unfortunate it was that local elections in particular got very low turnouts we’re talking between 30 and 40% I think typically so I’d like I know it’s almost 4 in the morning but I’d like it if there could be some serious engagement with the idea that I know there’s nervousness and reasons why people would not particularly want proportional representation or an alternative vote system at the Parliamentary level but to increase the collaborative working of local government and people’s feeling their vote counts at the local level should there not be a serious consideration that we should have proportional representation in our local Council or elections I feel really proud of ourselves Sheila that we’ve got to 355 and this is the first mention of proportion representation but of course Sarah only is gagging to talk on this actually am I mean you know voting reform is something we feel passionate about in the liberal Democrats and I personally I think if we were to change the way actually yes that we uh elect MPS for Westminster we would get a much more representative body and a much you know much greater range of of views um and it would much better reflect what the electorate actually want to see in uh in the chamber and then I think we would get better decision-making but it’s interesting um and I think one of the reasons why local election results often look very different from what you get from general election results is that typically you will have um more than one vote in a local election you’ll be uh you know in an what they call an all up when all of the councilors are up for election at the same time you’ll get um two or three votes depending on how many councilors in your W I had three yeah and so you will you have the opportunity to vote for different parties so you will get I did excellent well there there you go you see so you you’ve got the opportunity in London the mayal election we we we’ve had three ballot papers in London a mar election a local constituency uh candidate for the assembly and then a and then a a party vote for the list and it’s I’ve spoken to people who voting for sadique Khan who were voting for The Local liberal Democrat candidate in Southwest London and then voting for The Greens and it meant that people got an opportunity to better really reflect uh you know what their their real preferences are as opposed to a general election where you’ve just got the one vote for a single person um and and you know you might feel that you have to support particular party even if that’s not your party because you don’t want a different party to win so I you know I think actually local elections give a much better opportunity for voters to have their say and typically the two main parties torian labor don’t support uh PR um but in general elections what about local elections well actually Robbie’s question started out um he was talking about turnout um in Wales for example we have a form of PR to elect the members of the Welsh Senate and turnout rates are much lower than in a general election so I’m not sure that if you have a a PR system it actually equates to greater turnout at all I think in fact the evidence probably shows that you get much less of a turnout I don’t think the two things are connected necessarily I don’t think just because the low turnout elections we have are you know done proportionately I don’t think there’s a relationship between the two I think it’s about how people see the impact in their own lives and not everybody sees a local election as necessarily kind of like the most important I I think so I mean yeah I’m also against PR but I think Sarah sort of also slightly arguing against herself because the highest turn that election we’ve had in all history was the ref referendum and that was a binary Choice it wasn’t anything like PR and you’ve just described situation in London where you’ve got free votes two of which are first P the post and one of which was a list and you’re saying that gives you a sort of that gives you a sort of choice um I think there’s something very very special about having a constituency MP and that placess and that tangibility um you know that we we are all local Champions one uh one party you know there’s no one else can speak for our constituencies in Parliament uh you know our constituents can’t where therefore for and I think that’s really important part of the British democratic system here a conundrum for you Sarah as a hung Parliament labor are the largest party you make clear that you’re not going to go into a coalition been there done that but K starma says okay but I need a confidence and Supply Arrangement if we offer PR for local elections will you come on board what’s your answer Sarah only I have no idea that’s very much a hypothetical situation it’s 3:58 in the morning what you I can say is liberal Democrats are committed to voting reform it’s something we believe in passionately obviously we will seek opportunities to try and Achieve that but I can’t POS if you were leader if you were leader if I if there’s No Vacancy for leader um yet she’s not but you know I you know as I say we’re passionate about voting reform it’s something that’s really really fundamental to uh to our our beliefs as a party and of course we would look for opportunities to try and advance that well it’s nearly 4:00 Gareth anything to report on the results front um not particularly we are actually getting quite a few results now coming in but there’s nothing really nothing worth commenting on said to be a recount in harow I I read here but that would be an individual Ward wouldn’t it the marginal ward of Latin Bush and stewards yes I mean I think harow is a really interesting cons very close the conservatives are saying they think they will cling on to it well close see again harow Peter BR great y withth all of these kind of seats those are the seats that need to win if they would to win a majority in the election if they can’t win those seats it’s quite difficult to see how they get a majority and yet all of these seats have got massive conservative majorities at the moment they seem to be full of Voters who will happily flip if the political weather changes to that extent we got all of these seats along the the nor the Medway Corridor all of which went labor in 1997 all of the labor MPS built up massive majorities by 2010 and then the whole lot went conservative in like a house of Cs and that is probably going to happen but inse this time to most of them anyway um our panel is staying with us at least for the next half an hour uh it’s Sheila fogy and Ian Dale with you until 6 o’cl on LBC and LBC news’s election Night Live it’s 4:00 on your radio on global player and play LBC leading Britain’s conversation this is LBC [Music] from Global’s Newsroom at 4:00 labors made some significant gains among the early results from council elections in England the most significant victories seen the party take control of Rushmore in Hamshire from the conservatives for the first time ever it’s also gained thork and harleypool the conservatives have admitted they’re expecting a difficult result transport secretary Mark Harper told LBC they’ve had a difficult period we’ve dealt with a pandemic we’ve got a war in Europe which drove up Energy prices it has been difficult for people but we have since the Prime Minister took over driven down inflation we’ve had two cuts to lash Insurance we’ve put money back in people’s pockets we’ve had I think nine months now of real terms wages growth but it takes time for that to feed through to people there’s also a byelection in Blackpool South after conservative MP Scott Benton resigned following a lobbying Scandal chair of the labor party anelise dods told LBC a labor win would a sign a seat where I think it’s existed for 78 years 57 of those years actually it’s been represented by a conservative course 2019 they’ got almost 50% of the vote I think that Blackpool South by election is going to be quite a clear indicator of whether people feel that the conservatives are delivering this amazing uh situation for people in their families actually the reality is very very hard for lots of people in our countryes they want change former Home Secretary soel braan and the MP for faram has been at the council count there speaking to BC she refused to speculate earlier on what might happen if the Tories lose the council there it’s too early to speculate I as I said I I’m not going to make any predictions at the moment they haven’t even confirmed the turnout we haven’t even received all the ballot papers yet it is far too early to jump the gun with any kind of assumption so uh maybe speak to me in a few hours John swiy could become Scotland’s first Minister as early as next week as his main rival announced she won’t be running former Finance secet Kate Hobbs says she won’t put herself forward as a candidate to become the next SNP leader individual will be held in Northeast London on Sunday close to where a 14-year-old boy was stabbed to death 36-year-old Marcus monzo is accused of murdering the teenager and injuring four other people on Tuesday LBC weather cloudy for most later with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of the sunshine in the far south and the Northwest and a high of 21° from GL Newsroom for LBC I’m Daryl Jackson this is LBC from Global leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC you know I it is possible that some people are just joining us at 3 minutes past when you think about it it’s probably Dawn by now isn’t it I think um if you’re commuting from York to London what better thing to do than listen to us on the way I’ve done it myself um this is LBC and LBC news uh lbc’s election Night Live with Sheila fogy and Ian Dale let us remind you of who our guests are we have a new guest actually Dr actually Dr Adrien Ramsey good afternoon to you uh thank you and thank you for awarding me I’m on programed me a PhD as well in the process which I appreciate it says it here say doctor never mind you should be you’re very welcome I I bequeath you a doctorate Joe Stevens is here still to my left Shadow Welsh secretary and labor MP for card of Central uh Dr Ben Spencer is here as well conservative MP for Ronnie me and waybridge and for full disclosure Sarah ol is my local MP in Richmond par I’m full disclosure I am about to be awarded an honory doctorate oh in um politics and broadcasting massive I’m not sure I’m allowed to say where it is because it hasn’t been okay well I won’t stress I won’t stress but it’s of adjacent to Canterbury okay know what a Jas mind let’s let’s pull back a bit from the local results that we’ve got so far quite a few but it but the momentum hasn’t really started to flow has it yet of of those big results also with us by the way is Gareth Knight our theologist and Joe tman our pollster uh we’ll get plenty more from them as well throughout the morning until 6 um let’s zoom out and look at the national implications of these results uh perhaps starting with you Joe Stevens because labor it seems to me anyway labor needs to get a set of results here that deliver a kind of wow factor and energy ahead of the general election um are you confident it can and and also H how do you how would you measure that what would that look like that wow factor set of results so what we are looking for in the results that come out over the next tonight and over the next couple of days is that we are winning in areas that are in Battleground seats for the general election so it’s not necessarily about the percentage vote and the vote share and all that sort stuff it is about are we taking Wards are we performing well in those areas in those seats that we have got to win to win a general election so for example thurk and Rushmore um you know we’re doing well in Plymouth that’s that’s a seat that we would hope to win um and and win from Johnny Mercer so it it that’s the picture that we that was poo pooed by Mark Harper the transport secretary when he was here earlier let’s see let’s see but um but you know but that’s that’s our kind of mission tonight is to make sure that we are making the sort of progress that we need to make in those areas to win a general election and I mentioned harow a few moments ago just before the news the conservatives saying that they think they could cling on to it there’s going to be a recount in one of the wards um what would it mean to win that oh it would be fantastic I mean you know we’ve had some fabulous results tonight already um and and I think actually heartley pool is a real emblem because if you think back to 2021 and we had that terrible by elction results we then had terrible local government uh election results and that was a point at which you know k starma was seriously looking at it and thinking should I should I step down um but he has completely turned the labor party around since that date there’s made he’s made huge progress the labor party has changed and we’re seeing tonight that you know straight Tory to labor switching uh where people want to see a labor government they they see that as positive change we’re seeing labor to Green switching as well which is a good opportunity to bring you in uh Adrien Ramsey um a goodish night so far I mean I know it’s you know the rider has to be that it’s incredibly early days what will a properly good night look like to the greens well it is early days as you say but very encouraging from the early results and what we’re looking to do is to build on the last four sets of local elections where we’ve seen consistent gains for the green party right across the country winning seats from labor and from the conservatives in rural areas and urban areas and over the last four years what that’s done is is transformed us into a national party that’s winning seats right across the country and people see that they can vote green for not just a strong local counselor but for greens to have a real impact on their Council and in their community so this year we’re looking to to build on that Trend again secure a record number of green seats it is early days but the initial results look like we are heading in that direction and and that’s because we are adding to our counselor numbers in areas where we’re already doing very well and that includes gains from labor lib Dems and the conservatives but also breaking through into new areas and I’m particularly pleased with our first two seats in Newcastle for example as another um step towards us winning in more and more parts of the country that’s the first time you’ve had a counselor in in Newcastle yeah one of the criticisms long before you came here this evening we’ve had a long night um a couple of times the criticism that’s been thrown at your party is on housing too too much of a naysayer on housing so defend yourself to from that accusation well what I see and hear from people on the doorstep all the time both in my area in East Anglia but right across the country is that the homes they see being built are just out of the reach of local people it’s expensive executive homes that are just pricing people out of being able to live in their own local community and let at the same time um the idea of getting onto the um housing ladder is out of the reach of too many young people we have a million people on the council housing waiting list so what we’re saying consistently and clearly across the country is that we do need more homes that are affordable affordable to buy and affordable to rent New Council homes as part of that so it’s about having the right homes in the right place that actually meet local need and with the investment in the services that you need when you build communities but if you if you look at these big housing Estates that seem to be popping up all over the place sort of on on the edge of sort of reasonably mediumsized Market towns yes there’s maybe 100 200 300 houses they’re not executive homes I mean people could argue they’re actually sort of rabbit hutches which are far too small to house normal families now you’re right to say that they they’re still expensive depending on the part of the country and out of the reach of normal people but I mean how how do you make them within the reach of people who are an ordinary income it’s a good point Ian because there are um homes being built that are you know too big for local needs but as you say there were also homes that are you know a size that a local family would need but still out of the reach of what people can afford part of the answer has got to be stepping up a proper Council house building program giving councils the borrowing power to do that and putting the funding in to do that built to a high environmental standard of course which also means the running costs are lower for people um so we we have to put far more of a focus on that we made that the centerpiece of our local election launch in Bristol a few weeks ago that we would pledge 150,000 new Council homes a year a mixture of new build and refurbishment but you voted against thousand of homes being built in Bristol whilst you’ve been um you know running the council I I’m not sure that that’s the right picture to be portraying green counselors around the country have you voted against thousands of homes being built in Bristol have your Counsel on that I I’m not a counselor in Bristol I can’t tell if Carla denu was here she’s been interviewed on this as well and she’s been very clear that yes if there are individual planning applications that don’t meet local need because the there are not enough affordable homes or it’s using up valuable Green Field space or the investment is not being put in in the local services that need to go alongside that housing of course we are going to stand up to developers and say you can do better than this um let’s bring Sarah and Ben into this because the three of us live or you two represent and live in in quite leafy areas I live in one as well um a friend of mine has just put his house on the market and has got an offer and it’s a three-bedroom end of Terrace nothing special £395,000 and they’ve got buyers uh they want to get a £325,000 mortgage they’ve got 775,000 deposit and the mortgage company has said very happy to give you a mortgage you need to have a combined income of1 180,000 now luckily they can do it but what normal couple in their say early 30s with with a child or two can get on the housing ladder in those circumstances that it seems to me if any parties got the answer to that question they would win the next election but none no none of the parties have Ben well I I I feel very much for um that family it wasn’t it wasn’t too long ago when me and my wife went through uh applying for a mortgage and going through the financial stress test and I suspect part of the problem um with their comp income is around the financial stress test component but look I mean housing is is is a real challenge I think the the important thing is Right houses and right places and I actually see one of the the spin-off benefits of the leveling up agenda uh mission is to share economic Prosperity around the country and then also housing demand remove because we it’s completely we we we cannot have a situation where the UK economy is so focused on London and the southeast and ver as a consequence housing demand uh so I think that that’s one way of tackling it and of course we need we need more properties but we need them we need them in the right places and I think sharing out um economic Prosperity will help with that um the the the challenge though um with the housing market is that it’s it’s just it is effectively free markets in itself you’ve got the the buy to rent Market you’ve got the buy to invest market and you’ve got the buy to live market and so trying to disentangle that is quite tricky if you built a th houses in my constituency I mean firstly that would be hugely problematic but you wouldn’t move the house price down one bit what you’d probably end up with is exactly as you’re describing a thousand houses that cost 800,000 you know mad amounts of money that most people can’t afford and so in areas like Richmond Park well you you’ve got people who’ve lived there all their lives and their families have for Generations but I suspect at the moment you must be in fear of your constituency becoming a bit of a sort of monoculture where anybody moving into the constituency now has to be quite Rich to be able to do so you’re you’re going to lose the the vibrancy of a a sort of multi layered population well what we’re absolutely seeing in Richmond Park and and but this is also across London is that we’re really finding that it’s becoming unaffordable for families and Richmond like everywhere else in London is finding that it’s um massively falling roles in its primary schools and this is a this is a knock on impact uh if you like of of of uh of um Richmond and other places becoming unaffordable I just want to pick up your your mortgage point though I mean one of the reasons that mortgages are becoming so unable uh is because we’re seeing you know massively increased interest rates compared to uh a few years ago there was a hope I think that mortgage rates were going to start coming down but they not as quickly as people thought and we’ve seen this we they’re actually starting to rise exactly we’ve seen this week that the mortgage lenders because the expectations about um uh underlying interest rates are changing that mortgage rates are now going back and of course this relates directly to Liz truss’s mini budget and the disaster that followed that but I do want to say also the liberal Democrats I think have got one of the boldest housing policies we passed it at our Autumn conference last year we want to build 300,000 new homes a year 150,000 social homes a year it’s it’s a start is the best go into Coalition with anyone you won’t be able to do it will you well but you know if we’ve got more MPS in the next Parliament we’ve got a platform where we can really start to push for change okay just before we go to a Break um Gareth you’ve got an interesting uh police and crime commissioner result yes the first one um for f the first one of all of them because there’s only three of them this evening the rest of them are tomorrow so Lincolnshire which is the safest police and crime commissioner in the country Mark Jones has had his majority Slash from 68,000 to under 8,000 um a swing that would see a label Landslide at a at a general election in in arguably one of the safest concertive areas of the country and wider as the figures are coming in now the conservatives are actually losing more seats than they’re holding more than 50% so this is starting to look bad bearing in mind that normally the overnight tend to favor the conservatives because they’re in thirds they tend to be in rural District areas so I think this is actually starting to look genuinely bad and and it’s going to be quite tricky for them to SP well this is the moment that I think we should return to that we talked with Andre M about at the beginning of the show where would would that kind of horrific result leave rishy sunak following these elections what would his options be so full our panel can give a little bit of thought to that especially you Ben it’s 16 minutes past 4 LBC there’s e e leading Britain’s ation election Night Live on LBC it’s 17 18 minutes past 4 on LBC and LBC news um now we have a new member of the panel replacing Joe Stevens who we rather rely didn’t say goodbye to but goodbye Jo it was very nice to have you on the panel um Nick Thomas Simmons is with us all the labor big hitters coming out this evening we got Johnny renolds coming up later as well um now Nick as have you been touring the TV studios I have indeed so we’re sort of sloppy seconds more long night shift I somebody say now welcome to the SAA cuz it’s flipping hot in here this is the warmest of the studios I’ve visited tonight I have to say climate change Adrian I mean honestly I don’t know how you can better to be with us Adrian Ramsey is here uh co-leader of the green party Ben Spencer it’s conservative MP for Ronnie me and waybridge and Sarah ol liberal Democrat MP for Richmond Park now um we’ve got some reaction from Harley pool where Alan zinski has finally spoken to conservative MP Jill Mortimer about whether the Prime Minister has helped or hindered local election efforts there I think in local elections it’s very different um I think you know if if you’re trying to hint at what we should do about rash I think we stick together as a party you know we’re not going to have another change of leader now we’re going to go into the next general election together but we’re going to go in fighting stronger and we’re going to get our Rwanda flights off the ground and that’s going to make an awful lot of difference not sure that he met my Jeremy Paxman challenge there did he um but we now also have some another conservative MP Chris Chambers was joined by conservative MP Sarah Brick Cliffe and he asked her whether the Scandal that led to Scott Benton’s resignation in Blackpool South meant the conservatives were on an uphill battle I think because of that yes it was um but obviously we’ve we’ve worked hard we’ve got we’ve got the votes there and we’ve had a great candidate but it it was a difficult fight to have yes I think there’s a chance to turn it around I think again going back to the local factors that’s why we’ve seen the result that we’ve seen tonight but I don’t think we can’t change that uh Henry Riley joins us again lbc’s reporter who’s been keeping an eye on the east of England and another couple of areas as well what do you have for us Henry well Reddit Sheila one of those interesting seats um formerly held by Jackie Smith the uh ex-home Secretary of course Rachel McLean who you spoke with earlier the vice chair of the conservative party we’ve had um 12 seats so far nine labor three conservatives but the issue is that the boundaries have changed there I won’t bore you with all the details but they’ve changed the council Wards but as far as I can work out it looks like three labor gains so far so it’s not quite the conservative wipe out in Reddit but certainly looks like um a very good night there for labor so far they’re starting to trickle in um some of the other areas that we touched on earlier Rushmore um which includes older shot the home of the British army that um has been taken by the conservatives labor very much happy with that claiming lab Lab labor sorry labor CLA labor claiming a huge Victory it’s getting late I know well I got no excuse I’m in a nice comy studio um but yes uh cold one as well you know what it is quite it’s a nice temperature in here I won’t too much um nice for Nick Ferrari when he comes in at six um we’ve got uh of course a rushal that’s gone to to labor also um a big result for the party in other places Northeast Ling L share um I think is one worth definitely flagging because um the party they’re very happy they have gained six seats um the Tories have lost control labor haven’t it’s now no overall control but um a very good night for labor there but I think redit probably the one to watch as well as harow as well some of the results there starting to trickle in as well and thank you Henry for now uh the conservatives have held farum but we were talking about it earlier on with we but the um libdems have gained four that Li’s getting for there but the conservatives managing to hold on to Farah I mean we haven’t had any of the big results yet have we so it is difficult to categorically say what’s happening but I can’t see any consolation so far in any of the results for the conservative party from what Joe and Gareth are telling us um it’s going to be either a good night for labor or a very good night for labor or an excellent night for labor now let’s let’s operate on a bit of um hypothesis here let’s assume that it’s either a very good night to an excellent night for labor what does that mean for rishy sunak do you think Sheila well he’s tried so many things hasn’t he in the last what three four months to boost those figures in the polls and Joe you might want to come in on this and none of it seems to have worked this you know the latest round on the boats and the r with Island and the claim that it shows it’s working we’ll see what that does to the PO but the latest polls out today didn’t suggest it created any bounce yet I mean they have tried Joe haven’t they to to create some kind of uplift on those uh those numbers but it hasn’t been coming yeah not not just on uh on the small boats for that is just the most recent of the of the subjects that the conservatives have tried but if you look at the long-term trends and particularly the underlying data you can see just how dire the situation remains for the conservatives they’ve not been ahead in any published poll since the 6th of December 2021 and labor have had a double digigit lead in every single publish poll since the 26th of September 2022 these are the longest long-term trends that we’re now experiencing and that in itself would be bad news and the performance of Rishi sunak as a leader relative to K stama would be an additional problem but for me the the real indication of the trouble that the conservatives are in is the fact that since June 2023 so coming up to a year when you ask who’s best on the economy which as we’ve discussed is the most important issue and will be the most important issue going into the general election the percentage of people that say the conservatives are the best that has not been above 33 or below 29 more than a handful of times and that’s polling every week for a year in other words statistically unchanged and you think about all of the announcements that have been made on the economy in that period not least the budget the Autumn statement and everything else good and bad and it’s made no difference and if you’re that far behind I mean they’re uh they’re uh nearly 20 points behind on the economy they’re 20 points behind in voting intention and if you are that far behind and things aren’t moving it’s very difficult to see what you can do to and does that period just remind me of that period Does it include the energy bailout that the fuel bills bail out well the to June supporting people yeah uh nost after comes after that yeah but it’s an illustration of just how static things are now can all the politicians Among Us agree that you’re not going to answer the next big it with um well it’s a hypothetical question in because it’ll be very boring if you do particularly related to you Ben I’m afraid um I’m going to put forward a couple of options that I think Rishi sunak could Avail himself of okay let’s assume that all of the maril races are lost that they lose 500 Council seats it’s disaster Ville and we all know what happens with Tor MPS when it’s that kind of scenario they Panic don’t they Ben your colleagues just pan not you obviously they look Panic does he s years of medical training and be I’m glad I’m glad to hear that but to be serious what he could do on say Saturday afternoon or Sunday where they’ve had all of these disasters the Sunday papers are going to be a nightmare he gets elected out in Downing Street and he says well I’ve I’ve read the ruins I’m going to call a general election on November the 14th now that would be a very different thing to do because I don’t think I mean correct me if I’m wrong GTH but I don’t recall any prime minister ever calling an election that far ahead but there’s nothing constitutionally to stop them doing that so if they did that what we would all discuss in the media is the fact that he’s called a general election and I mean so the local election results that’s yesterday’s news so for for as a political maneuver that might be quite good call it when he was going to call it anyway but actually call it earlier could that work Ben I mean it is pretty a really extreme hypothetical question and I think you know I I’ll try it’s the reason why I’m not the director of Communications in number 10 I like the way that you sort of framed it which is just sort of invited me to to comment on that I mean I I I think U and I think all elected politicians should be ready to go for a general election whenever one’s called so you know I’m always happy in terms of going to test my support my constituents and you know whenever the pm ches to call the election um I’m I’m looking forward to it let’s get going but the other alternative is that as I said Tor and peace could panic and therefore overthrow him and there could be another Tory leader in place by say the end of May um I don’t know whether that would make any great difference but if Tory MPS in marginal seats particularly in the north of England felt that a different leader could save their seats you can see the logic of it happening even if the rest of the general public would find it laughable to have a fourth prime minister in what four years when you look at the polling on this it’s very interesting because there’s a lot of lot of bad data around that that people will hold up and say this is why we need to get a replacement for rushi sunak because when people are asked if there were a new conservative leader would you be more likely to vote conservative people say yes because they Envision someone who will be able to deliver what they want on an individual level and they basically think it’ll be someone better the reality of course is it’s unlikely to be someone significantly different and who will have all the same uh all the same hands tied and leave as aail able the rishy sunak hats and when you look at things historically a change of leader on either party has not produced a large change in voting intentions certainly not large enough to close a 20 point gap no um well I’d say John Major possibly in 1990 he had a quite a good honeymoon period didn’t he after Margaret Thatcher’s toppling um next Thomas Simmons whenever I talk to a labor MP and I don’t think you and I have had this conversation so I’m not about to drop you in it but other labor m that I’ve talked to some quite senior ones so of course the the the conservative that we really fear in the polls is Penny Morant what do you say to that no I I I don’t think so I think the the issue here is would I like rishy sunak to get at the Leon and call a general action absolutely I would however Ian in your hypothetical scenario would I like this Tory Psycho Drama to continue be visited on the country until November absolutely not and we’re here in yes we are in the final year of a parliament but we are discussing here the prospect of a fourth prime minister in the parliament I mean and that’s why I like the S SMP isn’t it well absolutely if you’re a voter in Scotland you’ve got the two chotic uh government to deal with and that’s why uh listen i’ I’ve know Penny Mor a number of years not dismissing Penny what I am saying is whoever the fourth prime minister of the parliament is I don’t understand how we’ve gone down this sort of rabbit hole you know well the overwhelming majority of conservative mpes are fully behind the Prime Minister I mean we we are 10 10% of results in you know I noticed that the labor party isn’t talking about hch and you know I I find it fascinating that they’re sort of trumpeting this great victory in Harley paol I mean my my uh my dad and you know my grandparents from Harley Paul I mean to to celebrate a labor Vector in Harley Paul as some sort of you know Return of the desire for labor support I I find fascinating and it just tells you you know just how far labor have dropped uh and just to reiterate the point that these elections the last time we had them was in 2021 we’re at a high water but say I mean in terms of Harley pool this this was a place that was once trumpeted by the conservatives as the red W that you had won and you you’ve completely betrayed them and that’s why you’ve lost them but in terms of Ben hen and Andy street that the conservatives have been talking about what’s fascinating about those two is the only reason they’re competitive is because they they’re distancing themselves from the conservative brand as far as they possibly can well of course they are look at their literature paper I mean they don’t have a sort of you know you don’t see the absence of a conservative symbol next to their name they’re very clearly conservative go and see their post this see the ABS of conservative it’s purely what you’re trying to trying to Pedal in terms of trying to undermine the the weakness that you have in those areas of the country and this is why you want to focus on the the the poity of results we’ve already had so far this evening uh because you’re scared about what’s coming next in the next couple of days pity of results we we’ve had 10% that’s one in 10 results declared one swallow does not make spring we’ve just won we’ve just won uh Rushmore which we’ve never won in the entire existence of the council since 1974 the home of the British army we’ve taken uh thork a key Battleground seat we’re making Pro uh Progress Red I’m sure I’m sure green green the green Ben gen if you if you want to take this level of complacency into the election that would be great Sarah olne um do you have any sympathy with the position that rishy sunet might find himself in because the conservative party is has always been pretty chaotic after any set of Elections that it loses badly they there’s always a demand for change whether it’s the leader or whether it’s a reshuffle or complete change of Direction they’ve always done that I mean the conservative party have always been pretty chaotic I think have you look back into the 1990s and the leader up to the 97 election it was it was chaotic and I don’t think you know I don’t think you see when other parties are in government the same quite the same level of chaos um I mean I don’t know I had some sympathy I suppose with Richi sunak when he first came in uh taking over from Liz tra I mean I think we all thought that was a low point for the conservative party but I mean certainly in polling terms each leader has been worse than the last so I would from you know if I was giving any advice to the conservative party like your own party well you know but I mean we we are we you can see tonight we are we are making gains uh at six so far I think that’s net gains but we are we are the largest party now on heart Council which is next door to Rushmore interestingly we’ve taken four seats in Farah we’ve held control of gosport we’re looking really good in Winchester with hell control in eastley and in Hull so we’re actually doing uh we’re doing really well all I was going to say about about if you could the conserv we should have a general election there you go but just to say as well the Blackpool South result is imminent before that though marvous Adrien Ramsey you wanted to contribute to the conversation there about rishy sunak and about the prospects for the party yes indeed I mean the conservatives have lost all credibility and they would lose it even more so if there was yet another change of leader or indeed if they called an election with several months to go it may seem good media management but it would just throw the country into turmoil what I’m hearing right across the country including in areas that are traditionally strongly conservative is people desperately want to change I think it’s clear from the polls that there is going to be a change of government the question is do people want labor to have a huge majority where they can do whatever they want without comeback or do we want to have a diversity of voices in Parliament including more green MPS to hold them to account on the crucial issues of our time okay thanks for now in a few moments I’ll talk to Anna fur MP in south end that remained in no overall control tonight it is one of the places where we’ve had a result and as I said just a moment ago Blackpool South result imminent as well it’s 4:33 at time for some headlines from Daryl Jackson labors made some significant gains among the early results from council elections in England most significantly the victory seen the party take control of Rushmore in Hampshire from the conservatives for the first time ever it’s also gained thorough can heartly pool the conservatives have admitted they’re expecting a difficult night a teenager’s been charged with three counts of attempting to cause Grievous bodily harm after three people were injured at a secondary school in Sheffield the 17-year-old boy was arrested on Wednesday following report of an incident involving a sharp object at Burley Academy and key S&P figur are giving their backing to John swinny to become Scotland’s first Minister nominations fourth position closed on Monday but Mr swinny could replace Hamza yusf as SNP leader unopposed LBC weather cloudy for most with heavy showers moving in from the East the best of any sunshine in the far south and far Northwest with a high of 21° this is lb DC e e election Night Live on LBC text 8485 I’m just looking at footage from the black pool South account where they are expecting um an announcement of the results soon and we will go live to it when that comes when that declaration comes um before though uh Kyle has called from Liverpool what’s on your mind Kyle we just lost him a Kyle before we go on can I just pay tribute to you because you have actually been broadcasting since 1:00 this looking up now have you seen that I have I broadcast from 1 till 4 well I wimped out on doing my evening program oh no I went and had a sneaky hip like a snooze really and then here I am for eight hours then we got to do all the I’m telling you hard as nails when it comes to live broadcasting I could just keep doing it till I fell over any we’ve done enough filling Kyle Kyle’s here now hello Kyle I’m parked up on a la by and a hgv drove past me and I lost signal right I I called in because Ian asked Ben a question of um what what has gone wrong and and Ben sort of did a little giggle over it and sort of you like like um said oh this and that’s happened but what’s going wrong with the Tories is right I voted Tor five years ago Liverpool’s pretty pointless doing I did it because I generally thought that they will do the best for me but they haven’t they’ve got a disgusting rander plan they’ve destroyed the economy my morgage gone up by 500 per month and and you’re still wondering what’s gone wrong so tonight after these results have come through what are you two guys the the conservative MP is going to take away from this and do for the next general election because now Marie eagle has my backing for the next general election not the conservatives and and to be honest with you I don’t think you’re going to beos that’s how bad it is for you but what are you going to take away to try and improve this Ben well I mean first I’m sorry that you um you know how you’ve been affected by things and uh of course uh I know people in in a very difficult situation I mean many of my constituents are in a tough place at the moment the key for us is that we keep on in terms of going towards our priorities number one has been getting down inflation which is the key which which everything else sort of follows really uh in terms of supporting our economy uh and helping people who are having difficulty because of um the inflation the inflation pressures um I you know don’t get me wrong of course going into these um these election results were going you know we’re not expecting it to be a great time for us um and we’re in a very difficult position I think the key for us is that uh we keep on delivering for people and we keep on communicating to people in terms of what we’re doing around inflation around in terms of tackling uh illegal migration I think that’s the that’s the absolute priority is that a satisfactory answer to you Kyle because you even in your question you seem resigned to the fact that they’ve lost your vote and and they’re probably not going to win in that area anyway no they’re not but I I voted for it because I I believe generally five years ago that it was the best party for me for my SE for the money I earn the inflation thing inflation at 3% means it’s still going up by 3% um I’ve noticed you’ve dropped you back to square one um sayings because to be honest with you back to square one is better than what we’ve got right now and that’s why I’m changing my vote back to labor and any result where the conservatives have lost tonight is a brilliant result for everyone and richy sunak should just call a general election because that’s the only right us British people have and he’s delaying it and it’s just gusted you need to go back take away everything you’ve seen tonight and go back to the draw board and go what have we done wrong this is interesting Sheila isn’t it because I don’t know how many calls we’ve taken probably about a dozen so far doesn’t seem a lot in the hours we’ done but I reckon of those dozen four of them have been identical to Kyle there and I mean Ben if I if if I were you I I would be really concerned about that people who gave you or lent you their vote in 2019 thinking they’ve completely let us down but of of course you know anyone who’s previously voted for us um or previously voted for me and my constituency who says overwise in terms of plans of course that’s going to be concerning you know we we are trying to do the best we can in terms of delivering people and you know getting the measured out in terms of what we’re doing but they don’t believe that do they they think you’re incompetent not you personally but as a group but but I think this is the this is the challenge that we have which is showing um delivery in terms of is showing you know we we’ve we’ve demonstrated reducing inflation um completely the bank of England has done that completely well there there are economic policies which which Drive inflation that we we we changed uh and made sure that we can we can help the bank of England make interest rate decisions as best as they can you know so inflation has come down I recognize the point that K makes is that it is still at 3% um it needs to be lower and even though inflation has has come down prices are still high as a consequence of a period of inflation going through um we have had a very difficult time over the past few years with the pandemic where effectively we closed the economy down for the best part of two years supporting people through fur dealing with the weaponization of energy costs dealing with the Russian invasion of Ukraine dealing with a whole host of um problems um which have had consequences generally on everybody um now elections or referendum on the future not in terms of what’s happened on the past and I think the key for us is putting out a positive Vision uh in terms terms of what we’re doing and delivering for people and and things are getting better and we are delivering uh I think that the challenges is to to make sure that when it comes to Ping day um Kyle you feel that actually things have changed for the better for you uh and we can get that message trying to pull you back but like like I say you know I’m sorry that you’re in in in the situation that you’re in um and I you know I I hear what you say loud and clear Kyle thank you very much indeed for your call and for your answer Ben as well um and again you know I don’t need to tell you how rare conservative voters are in Liverpool you know for car to have voted for you in the first place was probably quite a big step before him actually um but he didn’t tell many people that’s true well that that should change in Liverpool I think I think that’s a um that’s a weakness of our politics in our city I think it has been for a long long time but anyway that’s a whole other conversation um we’ll talk to Anna first now conservative MP for Southend West uh Southend no overall control remained in the same situation Anna well hello and thanks every so much for having me on uh yeah no I mean obviously a difficult night uh really but actually we’re quite boyed up in Southend uh in fact we won more contests this year than we did last year and although the council does still remain in no overall control this was this was you know not any sort of any sort of significant swing towards labor um there’s no enthusiasm on the doorstep for Kia starma and in fact now we’ve totted up the number of conservative votes the actual number of conservative votes cast is up slightly on last year uh so actually we need we obviously want to dig dig down into the detail of of all of this you know all of us have literally just left the count but um but actually this was a you know pretty positive picture you you’ve won more more contests you said that just checking is that because there were more contests this year than last uh it’s out in thirds in Southend so uh last year of the of the seats that we were defending we won five of them and this year we’ve won seven so you know we’ve actually we’ve actually we would say that we’ve improved our performance with those seats and that you know as I say we’ve actually improveed the number of conservative votes so so actually an encouraging picture in South a uh we we W I’m just the reason I look a bit agitated is I can see that the result in the Blackpool South byelection is imminent I think the returning officer is just Gathering the various candidates on onto the stage but they do look like they’re all there now shaking well some of them anyway shaking one another’s hands uh we’ll go live to it in just a second you you’re you’re I mean as you say it’s early days there haven’t been that many results but you’re satisfied with the south end result by the sounds of it well we’re incredibly encouraged in south end we know it shows that the voters uh do not want to go back to square one with labor and that that overall the conservative you know messaging the conservative campaigning that we’ve been doing I must stop you I’m apologies I must stop you we’re going to go live to the B elction res in Blackpool sou number of C votes for each candidate is as follows black Steven Justin commonly known as Steven independent 163 butcher Mark Anthony form UK 3, 101 [Applause] KGAN KGAN Andrew Kevin liberal Democrats 387 hope Allan commonly known as howling Lord the official monster raving Looney party [Music] [Applause] [Music] 121 Jones David the Conservative Party candidate 3,218 [Music] Knight Kim Sherry Alliance for democracy and freedom 147 sharp Damon Lee new open nonpolitical organized leadership 45 Thomas Benjamin Scott commonly known as Ben green party 368 web Christopher Paul commonly known as Chris labor party 10,825 well that’s a a massive gain for labor there 10,825 to conservatives just squeezing into second place 3,218 reform 3,101 liberal Democrats 387 and the greens 368 Joe tman your instant reaction well at the last ction the conservatives majority was 3,690 so they’ve uh they’ve really collapsed uh considerably and uh and it demonstrates that it demonstrates two things it demonstrates that reform can uh can really hurt them but actually also it won’t make much difference uh because reform could have been uh uh could have been absent and and still labor would have would have dominated and this is it’s worth remembering a constituency that uh vot Ed strongly leave at the the brexit referendum that has a level of unemployment nearly double that of the national figure that has uh has an older population has a population with with few educational qualifications this is precisely the kind of area that reform if it’s going to win anywhere would win and is this evidence of what you were saying earlier on is that that that yes on the surface of things doing well in a few areas but not quite grabbing it the way ukip did there no on the evidence of these results uh we knew ukip ukip were uh friends of some of ours and uh these are no ukip Nick Thomas Simmons um a tremendous Victory it is a tremendous victure I’m just looking there at the swing and the swing conservative labor is 26% that’s one of the biggest ever in byelection history yes that that is a huge enormous swing it’s well beyond what labor would need to form a majority government at the next general election uh and to see that majority there of 7,600 really is stunning and and also you you can add the conservative and reform votes together lab still 4 and a half thousand votes ahead but I was actually up in Blackpool South on Tuesday I was there most of the day on Tuesday campaigning and the kind of conversation that Kyle in Liverpool had with you uh Sheila when when he telephoned in was precisely the kind of conversation that what happening on the doorstep and we’ve been of course not complacent we’ve worked extremely hard on the day but we’ve been confident about Blackpool South because the reaction on the doorsteps that we were getting was very much that this is that this is time for a change people were fed up with the conservatives putting their faith in labor and this is a seat crucial seat for Kosama to get Downing Street but if you look at its history I think for the majority of its history it’s been held by the uh conservatives it was obviously a a a gain in 2019 but not just a gain for labor but a really strong gain that puts us in line for a strong general election for and Ben Thomas for the greens what it 368 Aiden Ramsey well it’s clearly a big swing away from the conservatives I just wanted to pick up on the comments your elections expert was making about reform and whether their strength and impact has been overstated I strongly believe that that’s been overstated well your strength certainly has been has it I’m talking about o over the country as a whole so tonight talking about this result you got 368 votes you must be embarrassed I was I was wanting to pick up on the I know you were but we’re talking we’re talking about this byelection not the whole country well our candidate there has run a strong campaign we you know we we’ve put our our policies forward the trend across the country tonight is we’re going to see more green counselors than ever before compared to reform having just a handful across the whole country greens have got around 750 seats and all the analysis on reform is you know might they take a few votes here and there and your elections expert has just said well that’s neither here nor there anyway on this result with greens it’s about getting people elected to make an actual practical difference for people and that’s the difference Sarah olne um I’m not going to put you through the ringer because we’re terribly late for a break and I know you’ve got to go so you can forever thank us for that I’m very grateful thank uh Sarah thank you for joining us Ben I think you’re going as well at this point and we are going to soon be joined by the conservative MP Jonathan gullis and the commentator Grant Tucker otherwise Adrian Ramsey and Nick Thomas simmer staying with us Sho they are indeed and the time what is the time the time is now 4:51 this is LBC don’t know where e e election Night Live on LBC should we talk to uh Gareth Knight about the south end conversation I just had with Anna fur the conservative MP um take Taking spin to a new level Gareth perhaps we didn’t get a chance to talk to you because of the Blackpool result we we we really should toast her um bravado on this one um so despite and they’re implying that this was a very very good set of results um they actually lost four seats and became the second party um in south end if you compare the number of seats lost as a you that were actually being defended um the conservatives lost four and labor gained three what Anna was doing was comparing this year’s results to last year’s results which were even worse but fundamentally that I mean it’s taking taking spin to a whole a whole different level it reminds me a little bit of Jillian Keegan’s Infamous comments after one of the recent byelections where she claimed that there was no swing to labor despite the fact that there was very clearly a swing to labor and their argument was that Labor’s voted dropped they could actually of course use the same argument the byelection result we’ve just heard because they’ve gone from 12,000 votes to 10,000 votes but proportionally and that’s how we measure election results it’s an overwhelming swing the swing actually by the way in Blackpool South was so much that if this was the first result on a general election night and that was the result that came through we’d be projecting 571 labor seats to 11 conservative seats with the conservatives actually being in fourth place behind the SNP and the lib Dems um it’s it’s bad it’s bad and I do wish that conservative politicians get a grip on how bad this is even though it is early days um that’s quite the extrapolation you’ve just made isn’t it oh it is but it’s what you do I know I know I know it’s important to say that it is but the reality is is that when we look at these results yes they are isolated results but the overall pattern is clearly very bad for the conservatives and even though they have set an unbelievably High bar for labor to to cross um you can’t get away from the fact these results are bad they they’re still even now um overall nationally losing more seats than they are holding um it’s it’s terrible let’s go back to Blackpool South and speak to Chris Chambers lbc’s reporter uh who was there has been there all night a huge swing from the conservatives to labor Chris well Sheila an absolutely devastating result for the conservatives massive result for labor though Chris Webb getting 10,000 825 of the votes the Conservative candidate David Jones with 3,218 there was an expectation this might happen to an extent but certainly not on this scale you know we know the background with Scott Benton and how we got to this point for the bi elction the uh the situation he found himself in leading to him resigning But ultimately this has been a devastating blow and reishi sunak will be watching this somewhere I’m worrying I’m quite sure because in the context of everything else that’s been going on you know you would not want to be going to a general election with this kind of result in the locker now you look at the some of the reaction to this SAR brick Cliffe the hinb MP spoke to me just before the result came in and she was saying how actually this isn’t such a bad result this is not the worst and we’re not worried we can bounce back from that and it’s in isolation simply because of you know the background and the situation that the conservatives find themselves in this whether that’s true or not time will tell and she was pointing to the fact you know there’s a lot more results to come in before the week is over the big battle really though has been conservative against reform hasn’t it and I know reform are delighted with this result you only 100 or so behind the conservatives they got 3,11 marked butcher the candidate for them and they’ve been seeing this very much as an opportunity to make some ground up and position themselves as a real threat to the conservatives and whether or not that is in the bigger picture I don’t know and we’ll find that out in time but certainly here in Blackpool South that has been a big result 32.5% of turnouts and as say big result for labor disappointment Grand disappointment for the conservatives and a good night for reform thanks very much indeed Chris Chris Chambers lbc’s reporter at uh Blackpool South and that count which is just declared Kia starma the leader of the labor party as you well know has said about that result this seismic win in Blackpool South is the most important result today there’s the narrative Andrew M was talking about earlier on this is the one contest where voters had the chance to send a message to rishy soon acts conservatives directly and that message is an overwhelming vote for change he says he goes on the swing towards the labor party and Blackpool South is truly historic and shows that we are firmly back in the service of working people I am so proud he says of the positive campaign we ran to those who have put their trust in Us in Blackpool and those considering giving labor their vote we are ready to serve your interests he says our new labor MP Chris Webb has shown that after years of neglect with the tor there is a better alternative the message to Rishi sunak is clear it’s time for change it’s time for a general election I mean we we can put all of those points uh to Jonathan gullis the conservative MP when he joins us after the break but I mean that is you know it’s what you would expect isn’t it from K I think the most interesting phrase in that whole statement was rishy soon act conservatives because that a an opposition party leader or even a government leader will only use his his opponent’s name with the party when he or she knows how unpopular they are same thing happened in 2005 Michael Howard’s conservatives Ian Donan Smith’s conservatives they didn’t do it with David Cameron well and Rishi sunak tried didn’t he what three months ago maybe more than that four months ago now to distance himself from those conservatives that came before and it it hasn’t really worked as it no um I mean Gareth what how do you interpret this result I mean it’s it’s off off the chart in terms of in terms of its scale so so we’ve got about 450 um Council results in total have come through um and then consider that the conservatives were going in with defending around 250 and we said if they lose half of those seats they are in deep deep trouble and they’re currently on 93 so if you do the maths they’re they’re in deep deep trouble adding to that Blackpool South one of the worst results have I think actually a caveat in 1990 there was an equally very bad result and John Major did go on to win the 1992 election but he had two years to turn it around um then you start looking towards what’s going to happen tomorrow some of those meral results um every single hurdle that Rishi sunak is putting up in front of the lab party the LA party is not just crossing over they’re leaping over um now they’re going to be grabbing some crumbs of comfort I think from Ben hen I I just can’t see how the labor party can turn that around but um that is pretty much the only thing they’re going to have to to cling on to thanks Gareth Joe you wanted to comment yeah quick factoid on on the swing uh Tony Blair achieved in his time as opposition leader from 1994 to 97 four 20 point plus swings from conservative to labor starma has now with a result in Blackpool South achieved five is it including four of the top five largest ever all of which were achieved in the last year there’s a lot of talk about the fact that K starma needs to swing in excess of what Tony Blair achieved in 97 just to get a majority of two well on the evidence of what we have seen not just in this byelection but the byelections with him as leader he appears to be on track for that and for that to be repeated and repeated and repeated in the general election is clearly the plan Nick well absolutely and and it is part of a part of a pattern I mean you think you Sal State you know mid Bedford show which is very true blue conservative territory you know the byelection pattern is that we are winning in all different parts of the country with very significant swings and it is about as well and I I found this on the doorsteps on Tuesday people who are directly switching from conservative to labor always need that of course absolutely that’s how you win and this is the eighth biggest conservatives of Labor swing of any byelection ever going back to the 1800s um which is I mean that’s going to be a big talking point I think for some time to come and it’ll be a big talking point for us over the next hour but there’s so much more to discuss we are going to say goodbye to Adrien Ramsey thank you very much Adrian and Nick Thomas S they are going to be replaced by Baron Susan rep you’re irreplaceable from the liberal Democrats uh to MP Jonathan gullis in fact he’s another one of these Deputy chairman of the conservative is he I think yes I’m sure is a lot of Deputy CH and lab Shadow business secretary Johnny Reynolds he’s joining us as well uh Grant Tucker we actually been very rude and we haven’t even said anything to him yet but you’d like to say something it has to be brief just wanted to briefly correct something that was implied earlier um it was suggested that labor had made ground against the greens this time I’ve not seen any signs as far as I’m aware there’s been no labor gains from the greens whereas greens have gained from labor in Reading SEF and exitor south ttin side and Newcastle so just wanting to correct that suggestion and you have done so thank you very we’ll see you again the other side of the news it’s 2 minutes 5 on LBC and LBC news on your radio on global player and play OBC leading Britain’s conversation this is [Music] LBC from Global’s Newsroom labor have won the Blackpool South byelection claiming the seat previously held by conservatives Scott Benton Chris web secured 10,825 votes a majority of more than 7,600 the Tories finished second just ahead of Reform UK Mr Webb has just been giving a victory speech saying people there have spoken for Britain they have said to Rishi sunak and to the conservatives they’ve had enough they’ve had enough for 14 years of the conservatives being in power they have lost Trust of the British people and blackp has had enough of this failed government which has crashed the economy destroyed our public services and put up taxes the first councils are declaring results in the local elections with labor also making significant gains they include thurk Haro and Rushmore people have also been choosing 37 police and crime Commissioners in England and Wales lbc’s election commentator Gareth Knight has been looking at the first result Lincolnshire which is the safest police and crime commissioner in the country Mark Jones has had his majority Slash from 68,000 to under 8,000 a swing that would see a label ands slide at a at a general election in in arguably one of the safest conservative areas of the country and wider as the figures are coming in now the conservatives are actually losing more seats than they’re holding more than 50% so this is starting to look bad Labour has also won the police and crime commissioner election in Cambria taking the post from the Tories a total of 11 mayoral contests have also been taking place with the result in London not due until tomorrow in other news the foreign secretary Lord Cameron’s been to Kiev to meet president seninsky the visit follows the UK’s multi-year commitment to deliver 3 billion pounds in Military Support to Ukraine and take that have become the latest act to move their shows away from the troubled Co-op live venue in Manchester The Arena says it’ll be taking a short pause to events until later this month to address technical issues in the city the footsy 100 will reopen this morning at 8172 after closing up 50 yesterday the pound buys $1 2 and a EUR 16 LBC weather an unsettled day with some showery rain for many brighter spells in the far north and the far south the high of 15 Celsius from Global’s Newsroom for LBC I’m Thomas wats this is LBC from Global leading Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC uh good morning to you uh we have one more hour you have one more hour with uh LBC and LBC news with me and Ian Sheila fogy and Ian Dale Nick Ferrari will be here from six in the studio with us uh we have Jonathan GIS uh another yet another deputy chairman of the conservative party uh we’ll be joined in a few moments by Jonathan Reynolds will we well hopefully and bar they not let us down Susan Kramer as well and with us joining the team the gang is lbc’s political editor Natasha Clark as well still with us Gareth Knight and Joe tman uh both with us until 6 uh and that Blackpool result is I mean you know at the end of a long night that’s the energizing story that you need isn’t it because it’s quite key and pivotal to it absolutely is and that I don’t think I mean John we’ll ask Jonathan gas for his views in a moment but I don’t think any conservative party representative could look either of us in the eye and pretend that that result is anything but a disaster it’s the eighth biggest conservative to labor swing in byelection history there is no other way to describe it now the only mitigating fact you could say well the circumstances of the byelection um I mean we don’t need to rehearse it all but um it was a needless byelection if if the sitting MP hadn’t done what he did there wouldn’t have needed to be one and there’s always a reaction to the electorate when they when they feel they’re being sort of exploited not not why there doesn’t need to be a byelection but if I was Kia starma I would have said exactly the same thing that he did in that statement that you read out earlier um as as Gareth said if that were the first result on a general election night labor would be heading for more than 500 seats now that is not going to happen well we don’t think if it does you can play the clip back at the time you canest your theory that no conservative could look you in the eye do your catastrophe look it’s fair to say that this was a very difficult result with an election in very difficult circumstances you alluded to the fact that the uh predecessor uh Scott Benton had obviously behaved inappropriately was facing an investigation then faced a recall petition ultimately resigned before the recall petition uh was published but I think we’re all aware that the 10,000 plus signatures required had been indeed signed and that always means that elections like this are going to be much harder when it comes to the electorates I think the takeaway from me really is that those people who are considering reform or have voted for reform in this election the question I would pose to them is that by voting for re form you’re guaranteeing Sak starma in 10 Downing Street Sak starma does not share their values when it comes to tackling small boats so starm would have a amnesty of migrants with a new announcement this week on saying that 990,000 plus people already here will be able to claim Asylum effectively keep letting them remain permanently in the country and of course would cancel the Rwanda flights this is also a man who campaigned for a second referendum and said he’d campaign for a main and I think those questions when it comes to the election of the general election and people having to think very carefully who they want in 10 Downing Street I do think those reform voters will think very carefully about their decision understand the H enormity that it poses and particularly in seats like mine I’m not blind to that I’m a 73% leave seat I’m a red wall seat I’m the first ever conservative in Stoke on Trent North kids kin talk reform will be looking at that type of seat I think lots of polls to say that it would be a top 10 20 targets and when you talk to your constituents what do they say to you about not perhaps explicitly about reform but but about the Tories performance what your party has done for them in government so look first of all they obviously referen the cost of living crisis there’s no doubt about that and they understand that there was a pandemic they understand the war in Ukraine but of course that hasn’t meant that that’s helped or made them feel any better um and I think part of that is us as a party constantly telling the story again of the fact that the Prime Minister partly as Chancellor partly as prime minister has spent half a trillion pounds to protect lives and livelihoods over the last four and a half years and making important point I think the other part is the leveling up agenda because of the rising cost of goods and and Rising inflation which is now down from 111% when the Prime Minister took over down to 3.2% that it means that leveling up hasn’t been delivered as quickly as people like there’s lots of great projects that we’re getting ready now to get off the ground but of course people like to have seen it sooner High streets have taken a hit of course because we changed our shopping behavior and patterns throughout the pandemic But ultimately the prist has made some big calls when it came to canceling the Norther leg of hs2 giving that massive amount of additional funny to someone like Stoke in order to fix our broken roads and Pavements which is by the way one of the top priorities of Voters in my local is something now that the labor leg Council has to deliver on and something that I hold them to account via my pothole Patrol but is that going to rebalance an economy in the way that hs2 would have I think ultimately what people would want to see is better public transport better roads because ultimately that’s the mode of Transport they use there’s not a lot of people from sto going up and down a wanting to go up and down a high speed rail down to London in fact most of the people who live in Stoke tend to commute within the city boundaries for their place of work or their place of education but when bus services have been impacted by bringing in the new 3 50-day flat Fair returning the number 95 bus service for harres head malop and new Chapel Ian will be uh rolling as I probably be rolling all this off the number eight service now having a Sunday service for B Green Norton enough already enough already um skip says hold on a minute I live in Blackpool there was no reform candidate on my ballot paper otherwise I’d have voted for them well either you I think well there definitely was in Blackpool South but if you live in Blackpool North you probably were voting in the local elections I’m looking were there local elections in Blackpool not I menine that there probably were um that’s the only explanation for that uh we have more news on Reddit some important news which Gareth Knight will bring us in a second but first uh let’s cross over to aliser square Studio Natasha Clark is there uh eagerly awaiting ni Ferrari’s breakfast program to uh give her give him the benefit of her analysis but we got him first uh Natasha welcome to the program you’re looking much more brigh eyed and bushy toil than either Sheila or Sheila she yourself I’m wearing pink how do you interpret these results so far because to be honest we haven’t had that many but I think we’re getting enough to realize that it’s a very good night for labor yeah of course it’s a good night for labor they’ve obviously just had that huge win in Blackpool South and a really big swing as well and that is the kind of swing that if they do win that in a general election and look it’s unlikely to be that big during a general election then we could really be seeing that labor landslide that all of the polls at the moment are predicting um but look we can’t really use that as a as a bell as a bell weather at the moment because of what has happened as you know many people say is quite a unique result in Blackpool South with that by election but labor have also done very well in places like thork heartley pool and Rushmore those are exactly the type of areas they need to be winning if they’re going to be making those consistent gains in a general election as well the east of England is something that I’m really looking at closely overnight because it’s such a bellweather area for what could happen in a general election and the other question I think everybody’s thinking about is is this going to be uh bad enough for the conservatives tonight to potentially trigger any sort of leadership challenge at the moment obviously we’re such early days so we don’t really have enough information to to see whether that’s going to be the case at the moment uh labor art I’m hearing quite gloomy about the West Midlands meral result which the Tories May hold with Andy Street there’s also that result up in tside that the Tories are very much Clinging On To The hope that Ben haton will be able to win there but the Tor is not doing well so far down about a 100 or so counselors uh and obviously the reform vote as well another very interesting Trend that we’re going to be picking over all day I’m sure obviously in Blackpool South they did quite well but that was an area they were really throwing the kitchen sink at and they were really hoping they were going to come in second place the conservatives obviously delighted that they didn’t do so but yes what does this tell us about a general election are labor on track to make those big gains that they absolutely have to make if they’re going to uh win that overall majority but for Tory MPS especially ones between sort of 10 to 20,000 they’re all going to be looking at the local results in their own areas to see look can I hold on to my seat come the next election I’m sure some of them will be thinking uh about whether they want to to remain as an MP and whether they want to stand in it at all based on some of these numbers we’re seeing tonight and Natasha Ian made the point when I read out sakir st’s statement about the Blackpool South result um that he referred to it as uh the voters sending a message to Rishi sunak conservatives very much wanting to put the prime minister’s name alongside This Disaster really yeah of course and you know the conservatives in many places like I say those two mayoralties they’ve been very distant from the conservative brand and you wouldn’t know in some of their electoral leafleting and and such that they were conservative candidates and these are two men who were very much hoping that to to win on their own brand and whether that will be uh something that conservative MPS might try and Nick that tactic to hold on to their own seats I’m sure we will see uh many doing so uh in the next general election when we do see it but yes there are many voters who will be wanting to give Rishi sunak and the conservatives a real kick at these polls in these local elections now we know obviously with the caveat it’s not how people vote people vote very differently in local elections to how they do in a general election and rishy son I’m sure is going to come out to say uh today the incumbent uh parties obviously do very very poorly in these uh local elections however it’s obviously you know look at the polls lots of people are saying it’s time for a change and it’s the labor party who are are doing the best on the back of that result okay sorry um Gareth Knight you’ve got some important news in Reddit we’ve been talking about Reddit a lot this or this morning or this evening or whatever all night so Reddit is one of um what I identified as sort of key the four key labor targets um and yeah they’ve won it by an absolute mile so beforehand they’ve been boundary changes but notionally it was roughly around 15 conservative seats to 12 labor seats it is now 21 labor seats to five conservatives you see this is the worst news of the evening and Johnny Reynolds will know why this is because when I do my podcast with Jackie Smith tomorrow the former MP for Reddit she’s going to be insufferable and in about uh an hour’s time I will be seeing her on Good Morning Britain there you go I mean hope you’ll be praying for me Sheila well brace yourself it’s all us say brace yourself who who doesn’t want to make Jackie Smith happy I mean come on well you speak for yourself um welcome to see you all it’s been I mean I won’t say it’s been an eventful night so far apart from the Blackpool South by elction I suspect that’s what you and your party will want to be concentrating on tomorrow even though there is very good news for many of the local elections too well yes I mean what what we wanted to see and obviously these are important contests in their own right what we obviously want to see are what’s happening in the places where we know there are conservative MPS and parliamentary constituencies where we’ve got to take those seats to form a labor government so obviously the Blackpool byelection absolutely top of the list but actually alongside that great result in heartley pool in Rish if you’ve just uh said we’ve seen um places uh you know go labor that haven’t ever had a labor Council before and of course no one wants to minimize these important local issues important moral that will get the results for across the weekend but we’re seeing in the areas that will determine the next general election people switch from the conservative party to the labor party and if that continues obviously that would give us the labor government that we desperately want we’ll talk more about that and much more in just a few moments the time is now 6 no not yet 5:17 wish this is LBC don’t know where e e election Night Live on LBC at 1990 minutes p 5 on LBC now he’s been sitting here very patiently but Grant Tucker is with us a former entertainment and arts editor of the Sunday Times and all around Good Egg and he’s here to provide us with a little bit of a lighter touch over the next 40 minutes such your challenge can you live up to it well talking of Shish your fake tan is looking very nice I I have not got fake tan this is a scarless rumor that’s being put around it’s my middle eastern Heritage do you know what it is it’s sitting next to me the pale blue Irish girl everyone looks stand and they sit next to me well greater Manchester was hotter today than a bether news just in and on that one and you know what else is hotter than a Bea this room but what a Pity great can’t build concert venues that work okay well that is a sof spot is that in your constituency no no that’s in Manchester or it’s a hideously ugly building isn’t it I haven’t seen it that doesn’t work that doesn’t Co I think I think that’s the least of the problem it’s a co-op thing yeah awful insert your own joke no I mustn’t say that in case there advertisers um Grant now ask some question you you you you’ve operated in the political world for quite a long time and you you’ve seen election results come and go do you think that come the come general election night we’re going to look back on tonight and what happens tomorrow and Saturday as a bit of a portent of things to come I really do actually I I don’t think we’ll be concentrating on the Blackpool byelection votes so much more the plymouths the rushmor the seats that have always been conservatives in my lifetime which are now going to labor and it’s mainly I think because of Reform reform are really biting into that conservative vote and if this is what they can do with Richard Ty’s leader what would happen if Nigel farage is the leader and I think people like Jordan gullis will be very worried about that rise to the challenge Jonathan look I I I know he’s a nice Chap and get on with him well but I certainly don’t fear the challenge of Nigel coming forward however I do fully accept that Nigel is a far bigger personality far bigger name than Richard Tyson of course will’ll pose a different type of Challenge and ultimately look I’ve said it before you’re one of the most easily influential politicians the last 20 years if you think about what’s brought about however I think there is one thing that we can make very clear from tonight’s results that a vote for re form is going to lead to sakir starm in number 10 which means if you want to stop the boats it won’t happen because Labor’s migration amnesty that’s been announced this week alongside canceling flights well Jonathan Reynold well Johnny I was Jonathan Ashworth told me something very different on BBC after your segment so I’m hoping that we’re not contradicting one another here because labor seems to be saying one thing in private that they’re can’t they’re not going to cancel arounda flights they’re briefing Andrew Mah of LBC and the next thing you know you guys are saying that Romando is absolutely going to be canceled so there is different stories being said to different people at different times it sounds like you might want to be joining reform from what you’re saying that’s the story I’m taking from your com you well know the Tory party since I was 18 years old and will proudly proudly remain a member of the Tory party what I have done is introduced bills to Parliament that said we should ignore the European Court of human rights which sakir himself decided to vote against on a 10-minute rule Bill and that you guys have a plan to quote process quicker but don’t actually be honest with the people to say you may process people quicker but you can’t do returns deals with Afghanistan because you’d have to do a deal with the Taliban so ultimately what’s going to happen those people are going to remain here indefinitely may I just ask you one question later because what you’re saying is you you have you have tens of thousands of people in hotels don’t you they can’t claim asylum in the UK cuz you’ve made that illegal and so it’s going to be 100,000 people soon you’re not planning to send 100,000 people to Rwanda I mean you’re paying half a billion pounds for 300 people I believe so what are you going to do if you’re not going to process those Asylum claims with with all those people so first of all you know there’s no cap on the scheme because the Randa government has made the second thing that’s important Johnny is to also remember that by your plan you’ll be aiding or betting the smuggling gangs because you’ll be basically saying to people if they get to this country they’ll be able to claim Asylum and remain indefinitely here which will put more pressure on housing more pressure on NHS and more pressure on schools that be your plan by saying to the Smugglers bring them over much as we would love to spend the rest of the program talking about Rwanda not um very interesting news from harow Gareth it says here T and in fact it’s from you so it must be true harow has been held by the conservatives yeah um I didn’t really see this coming um it was a long shot for labor but it was undeniably one of their targets all the same um harow has so so the conservatives only took control of it in 20121 Hollow has always been a bit of a swing area an extremely active local campaigning MP there in Robert Halon um he has announced that he’s stepping down and I think there was a general view that actually he’d possibly take a bit of a back step and therefore labor would just come and sweep it again but Robert Halon himself is tweeting that the conservatives have held it and very much pray raising the the the local conservative party so yeah that is that is a I mean we’ll count it as a Miss for labor for the sake of the debate because we’ve got another 40 minutes of the show left but the reality is that it was always quite a quite a long shot and um labor don’t necessarily need they didn’t need to to take control of harow um but they do need to win harow to form a good majority don’t they because it it was a labor seat for many many years certainly the 70s and early ‘ 880s um it then went conservative and then went back to labor in 1997 and I mean I know the area quite well it surely is a seat that labor should be wedding yeah so there were all out boundary changes which actually should make it much more difficult for the conservatives I mean this is the fear that they in Reddit for example we saw this um but certainly the impression that I mean I don’t know har particular well but the impression that I get is that every single person tells me that Robert Halon really drives local party there if you if you have that big figurehead that really drives things we talked earlier on about Andy Street Ben haran um it does make a big difference um you do see um Council fact I mean you see some councils around the country and particularly in sort of Sur Hampshire and so on where there’s hardly any conservative councilors whatsoever but the conservatives are quite big majorities um in parliamentary terms so eastley in Hampshire for example there is one conservative counselor in eastley and yet the conservative majority there I think it’s about 16,000 at the moment um likely to come down I’ve got I’ve got to say against the libdems the libdems very competitive there but it does go to show that if you have someone strong really driving the campaign it can make a difference but you don’t have 650 Robert halons or 650 Ben Harrison and the labor party has equally got their people who can really Drive their local campaigns as well okay uh caller Michael in herro in just one second just before we talk to Michael um the number to call uh to speak to us or to speak to our guests more more specifically 0345 606 0973 and harking back to that question you asked uh Jonathan gullis about reform and the potential leadership of uh NAA varage for his name for a second of Naj farage um I youed to know if you are if you are a voter who is thinking of voting reform but wavering would he make all the difference one way or another just that I’d just be Keen to know what you think about that 0345 6060 973 Michael sorry to keep you Michael in Heath thr what did you want to say and anyone specifically you wanted to speak to well i’ first of all say welcome to The Good Egg but it’s a bit late for Easter um I’d like to make a comment about blackp and I wonder if we should interpret it a bit more carefully uh if my understanding is correct uh blackp was always a labor St hold anyway but we have to go back not true was a Tory seat in the thater years oh right okay yeah okay let’s go back to the last election now and if you remember uh the comments was in paralysis uh black Paul had heavily voted to to leave Europe but it seemed that the the intention of the electorates being ignored and sty by by The Commons really so I think what happened was uh the people in Blackpool loan their vote to Boris because they believed that he could get the job done and but it was a temporary it was a temporary loan they would then revert back to to labor and I I wonder whether that that uh where that where youve got that combination you’ve got combination of the vote being loaned by labor to the toys to get the job done and then you’ve got that plus the uh the toys that are dissatisfied now merging over going over to labor as well and that’s adding up to the very very large swing I think I think that is quite true but Jonathan gallis must give you pause for thought because it’s going to be exactly the same in your seat look I’ve never been uh I’ve never taken the seat for granted I started Rec campaigning to get elected the day I was elected ultimately it was always going to be a tough challenge I’m the first ever conservative in the history of my seat but as I say I’ve got and I won’t repeat all the all the list and don’t you worry I’ll spare you I know I’ll get in trouble with you but ultimately I’ve got a track record I’m very proud to run on locally and what we’ve done and I’ll put that to the voters and I will make my case and ultimately I feel that we have been delivering should we bring in Baron Susan KR that would be my be my an election night would not be the same without you on on OBC so thank you you joined us even if one of our rival broadcasts has kept you a little bit longer than they should have what are your observations overnight so far well I I mean in terms of where the liberal Democrats are standing there so uh we know that most of the results in which we have an interest and we expect to see our best results are going to be coming in later in the day and tomorrow that’s just the way that the count is happening that uh um but uh obviously I mean we’re looking at the numbers today we’re we’re in a very good mood um we’ve been looking at results in Hampshire and uh we’ve been uh um you know pretty pleased with what we’re seeing already in there because Hampshire hartfordshire Oxfordshire where we’re facing against the Tories and the blue wall seats we expect to do well and our Focus has been very much to work in those areas where not only do we have something to contribute locally but where we can build that into a serious challenge at the general election because our primary goal is to get this conservative government out we think that’s what the country needs and that’s what the people who are supporting us ask for so uh we’ve been very pleased with all of that but even where we’ve been against labor we’ve held Hull that’s I think people if you’d ask them yesterday probably would have said that Hull would go it didn’t that uh um we Remain the largest party on Stockport Council and within that Council mostly we’re facing against labor at Stockport but within we’ve taken two seats off labor actually there but uh within the Stockport Council in the two areas Hazel Grove and chedel where we are very determined that we want to take the seats at the general election the conservative vote basically collap we actually won the popular vote in those two two areas so um we’ve been very pleased with what we’ve been seeing all all the way through we’re expecting good performances in places like Winchester um which you would probably expect are you majority controlling gospel are you worried about the greens though because if you look at a lot of these results for the first time the libs are getting knocked into fourth place where they were always traditionally third after Labor and conservatives and it seems now that the greens are kind of stealing your thunder well as I say the way in which we are campaigning now is very targeted you know if you look back at something like the 29 19 election we actually did very well in the overall popular vote and lost many seats well I mean you know we do it it is required in life that you learn lessons when you make mistakes and we know that we need to Target we need to Target our resources we need to be focused and we focus basically overwhelmingly in seats where we we find the conservative party frankly that there and just to be honest with you I mean there are so many one nation Tories who don’t believe they have a place in the conservative party anymore it’s done for them that’s they’re not they’re not coming to you though that’s the thing I mean in Black 387 votes I mean embarrassing there’s a we we weren’t trying to win votes in blackb we had elction we had a good candidate that’s uh who’s local who had important things to say but we knew we couldn’t win that seat that’s that’s J we have to be sensible I mean in we could destroy our party if we try and win every seat and every opportunity we must know where our strengths are where we’ve over the time built up the base where voters have got to know us where there’s a a convincing response coming from the local voters and we we that’s the way in which you approach it when you start from the position where we’re starting we’re doing it well it’s it is going well what’s the lib Dem offer then to disgruntled conservative voters in particular you know come the general election in particular well I mean we have focused very much on the issues which people raise with us the first one is the cost of living I mean I think that is almost Universal and they want to see a real focus on on returning this country to Prosperity we discuss those issues in quite a bit of detail that’s uh um that there is a huge Fury at uh um at the difficulty for example in never getting to see your GP so I we’ve talked about for certain people a name GP we’ve talked about funling money into making sure people can get their GP appointments the issue of sewage which some people treat almost as if it’s a bit of a joke but in a sense it almost stands for the kind of deterioration of communities when the water is filthy and it it just undermines the whole Community sense of itself is that that’s coming up a lot is it comes up a lot isue it’s a huge issue it it it has been so neglected for so long so it’s around those kinds of issues that come to us in the local community and we wouldn’t be getting the support that we would get if people didn’t like the answers that we were giving you’re 9% in the polls you haven’t moved since the last election that’s if you take a look that’s at National numbers that’s what counts in a general election no it is not not for us it might be for the other two always has been in past general elections it doesn’t it it it doesn’t it doesn’t deliver for us what delivers for us is focusing very firmly on areas where we bu we can build our strength where we can move ahead you’ve been seeing that some of it’s been in the Southeast but actually it’s you know even places like Shropshire where we got a good byelection that where we can pursue it it works we must go to the news headlines but we’ll more conversation in a few moments with Jonathan Reynolds with another Jonathan Donathan G the conservative MP for sto cont Trent and we’ll hear more from Grant Tucker as well the journalist and political commentator and you as well well of course on 0345 6060 973 it’s 534 let’s get some headlines from Thomas Watts the labor leader sakir starma has described the party’s by-election win in Blackpool South as seismic Chris Webb finished well ahead of the Tories in a contest triggered by the resignation of former MP Scott Benton there are 107 councils holding elections in England with around a third expected to declare overnight Labor’s gains so far include redit thork harol and Rushmore in Hampshire the Tories have retained harow a closely fought race in Essex by one seat do stay with LBC for all of the results and Analysis and the weather unsettled today with showery rain for many brighter spells in the far north and in the far south a high of 15 celius this is LBC don’t know where e e e over 5 million homes are at risk of flooding yet many people don’t realize they’re in danger even if you’ve never been flooded before it can happen to you protect your family and home prepare act survive prepare a bag including medicines and insurance documents act by moving important items upstairs or as high as possible Survive by listening to Emergency Services search what to do in a flood and sign up to flood warnings on gov.uk as a parent you want to protect your kids you know you can’t keep them wrapped up in Cotton wool forever but there are some things that you can do like keeping the vaccinations up to date some childhood diseases are on the rise again like measles and hooping cough and they can cause severe illness childhood vaccinations can help prevent them so are your child’s vaccinations up to date to find out more search online for NHS vaccinations in Britain’s conversation election Night Live on LBC just another what 20 minutes or so with me and Ian Dale Sheila fog and Ian Dale here on LBC and LBC news this is lbc’s election Night Live we’ve had a fair few results we know that the big ticket or most of the big ticket results are going to come over the next few days later today and over the next few days but we’ve had one big ticket result for sure which was Labor um resounding uh when in Blackpool South a swing of 26% Jonathan Reynolds what does that mean to the party as it looks to the general election well it’s huge I mean this was the the big test for us of the results we will get uh tonight I think uh that is the third highest swing in a byelection since the war so it’s really up there as a size make result great candidate uh so happy for Chris work really hard Blackpool born and Brad and exactly the sort of person we’ve got standing in these key contests that will make up um the Battleground for the general election so were delighted with it of course you know with all the caveats of it’s just one by elction there’s more to do but there’s a pattern we can see with the early results as well in those key contests going K starma clearly thought it was significant given the the statement that he put out which if there’s time I’ll read in full again before 6 can I ask you about good well what wasn’t that good statement well it was you know it’s the leader statement after a resounding Victory what is wrong with you get some sleep it’s GNA that man and um can I ask you about the Gaza um Factor here because there’s been some analysis done on I think 220 Wards 221 Wards looking at the wider local election election results picture and it looks as though labor is being punished in larger Muslim population areas was that factored in in your thinking yeah it’s been difficult I mean I think it’s always important never to stereotype any one Community is just having one view about a complex issue but you know we have felt it I felt it in my own uh constituency particularly in one of the wards and so it will be a factor in what we’ve seen again in a mix of of you know the whole range of issues that people vote on local National foreign policy they all come to the four in any sort of election in a place like Olden where it looks like might have lost control actually there’s a there’s a few things going on in Al we we’ve lost seats I think for the last three local elections so you can’t just say it’s that but I wouldn’t deny it it’s been a challenging part of of this election campaign given the party’s historical connection to the Palestinian cause um was K starmer at the beginning in that interview with our own Nicki actually did he did he display I don’t know a desire to uh to show that he wasn’t of the old Corbin Corbin left of the party prop Palestinian or sort of knee-jerk prop Palestinian that that he was able to step back and do a more statesmanlike approach to you know an admittedly complex and thorny topic was that where he made that mistake do you think we had to clarify ground that interview there was a lot of you know reasonable questions being asked and and K just wanted to make clear which bit of that bit of that question he was responding to it is true to say I mean labor is the traditional political home of of both you know the British Muslim Community and the British Jewish community and and so these are difficult issues always for us when it’s a conflict in the Middle East we all think share a sense of frustration we all want to see this horrible conflict come to an end those hostage has released there are limitations Franklin what you can achieve as a British politician when it comes to to a conflict like this but I think the position we have now for an immediate ceas fire for Aid to get into Gaza is the right one but you know sometimes things can be a difficult issue whichever way you respond to it I think we’re waiting aren’t we it may have happened overnight that I haven’t seen but I think we’ve been waiting for a Hamas response to that latest offer from Israel for if not a total ceasefire then at least some kind of pause of 40 days or so I think it was to to affect some liberation of hostages and prisoners can I ask the other people on the panel uh the other politicians on the panel um how much has this come up in conversation with voters a lot so look I’ve got quite a sizable uh British Muslim uh Pakistani British as well population who of course completely empathize with the Palestinian people they will have be perfectly Frank quite a different position to me uh when it’s come to the Gaza situation and I know that for labor colleagues it’s been incredibly challenging for there as well and you know we’ve had protests where in fact former hisb to here members stormed into a conservative fundraising event and intimidated women and young children who were at it and the point where even though they B past the police Alle on this occasion we had to get reassurance now I’m not saying that just for us I’ve seen I think particularly labor colleagues have had a very difficult time a lot of intimidation totally unwarranted and unnecessary but look in my own seat there is an independent uh sort of British Muslim candidate now running on a in my own seat which you know alongside a pleora of other individuals is going to make you know meain that issue will be one of the top ones that we debate in hostings and in uh local interviews How concerned are you about what we’ve seen in in the American universities and something like it not quite the degree of violence and disruption and hopefully it won’t come to that on British University campuses as well well I too hope that it won’t come to that and I think it’s really important to keep finding the Common Ground bringing people together having that civilized conversation I mean we found in our party and you know for for us we’ve been led by Lea Moran that’s on a lot of this who she had family didn’t she that needed to get out of Gaza she did that’s and we’re a long time in Gaza but she’s always described herself as a friend of Israel and a daughter of Palestine and I think that has shaped the policy that we’ve had and the party has held together and I speak with uh our committed Jewish members that uh and with our members of of midd Eastern Heritage and they feel that we we we we’ve been able to find that Common Ground between ourselves and based on our sort of core values so for us it’s it’s we have held together but I mean I think our hearts bleed every day um for all of the people that have been uh uh uh suffer you know suffered through all of this but we’ve we called very early on for a ceasefire by both sides but leading to a peace and to a final solution that’s for getting Aid into Gaza but um it’s I I think for everyone this has been a a very difficult very anxious time when our hearts have basically been you know bleeding for people we we know we’re suffering and the scenes both on October the 7th and throughout exactly exactly I mean those scenes on October 7th were so utterly shocking and uh from a Jewish Heritage and you know I think that that that that’s e that easily could have been uh relative of mine that’s but then you see the scenes in Gaza as well so you know this is this is common suffering by Humanity here I know Joe you want to come in on this I mean you mentioned the polls earlier on and what what the general public are saying about this topic yes that’s right and and the public view on this has been consistent since uh since the first uh first outbreak of the atrocities in in October and that is that there is a great deal of Sympathy For The Ordinary People of Palestine and Gaza and there is a great deal of Sympathy for the ordinary people of Israel and what people want to see overwhelmingly is an end to the violence hostages to be released yes uh an end to a minimization of Civilian casualties and ultimately peace in the region and they want to see that they want to see quite the wish list but but they want both side both sides involved in that and and I would say that really in this country particularly the the leaders of the mainstream parties share that share that view as well and uh and so the debate is about how we get there and that’s what makes it difficult in particular areas but overall as a national issue it it’s not really there they’re about to talk so interesting just before we go to a break Tony has sent an unintentionally hilarious uh WhatsApp message says I don’t find Ed Davy appealing in any way whatsoever and most people have never heard of him does baroness Tucker think there’s a change of lead there a change of leader would help for Li D is there something that baroness Kramer and Grant Tucker would like to tell us Baron Tucker that’s wonderful a jum sh that can be very successful a lot we we should pursue this I mean clearly that’s everyone’s getting Peres now day so why not me would you be a crossbench pier yeah I think I would actually Well everybody’s a commentator these days so why not me you know very good one why not me that ought to be the name of a program I think um uh one of the we go to break in just a second but maybe we can reflect on this afterwards Sheila um we’ve done loads of these programs over the years now and I’ve never had a program where we’ve had so many calls from listeners I mean in an election program normally people prefer to listen and I don’t know what the message is that we’ve been inundated with calls we haven’t been able to take them all but we’ve been inundated I know what it is we said the rebellion and results coming through so call us and they did God Lov them they did no it’s been it’s been great it’s been really good to include it so much it’s 5:47 LBC listen e e election Night Live on LBC text 8485 it’s 549 on LBC now Sheila and I aren’t done for the day at 600 are we because you’re going to be doing your normal afternoon program at 1 from 1 and I’m going to get in at 5 to 1 pretty much yeah and then I’ve got my first Friday night program for 11 years congratulations on that by way clue what we’re going to do I think you do I think we’re going to do this aren’t we I think you do yeah so I’ll be getting at 5: to 7 as well do you want me to come in as a commentator that would be actually no I I’ll be gone um should we go to another call what is it with all these callers from Liverpool Brian’s in Liverpool are you phoning in just to show support for your fellow liver puddle and Sheila Brian I’m Brian well I might well yes I might be but um I would just say on and say Le you know it’s good to see the t’s just on the back for and sliding downwards that speaks a true Li ply oh that’s fantastic what is it you don’t like about them Brian everything I mean the shol I mean people talk about like where did you start with them where do you start with them can you start back in 20 when you took over with austerity can you start off with 2016 with the brexit and based on lies can you start off with party gate can you start off with list where where does it end with them do you want Jonathan GES to address those questions well go ahead yeah I I think you’ve got a tough task convincing I think it’s fair to say I can’t put Brian D undecided in any polling I do but uh Brian’s entitled to his view there’ll obviously be people in my own constituency see will share that view in fact maybe even some of my own own family I’ve got lifelong labor voters in my own family as much as I’ve got Irish nationalist libdem conservative I think my my actual fiance was a labor party member under Jeremy Corbin um so you know you should know I’m I have a uh you know there’s no Echo chamber at home trying to get someone to agree me around the dinner table is a difficult the best of times you’re like the League of Nations we are the League of Nations Christmas is very tense at times we we avoid we try to avoid curent affairs and Brian I mean we know that more often than not not uniformally but more often than not Labor uh wins in general elections well in fact in local election as well often in in Liverpool what is it you are looking for from labor if they as looks likely become the next government well if they become the next government I mean the one one thing that they’ve got the biggest problem with is the debt I mean people talk about the debt and the things like in 2007 and 2010 when the when the banks crashed and we were 880 billion in debt at that point the cories have managed to take us up to 2.3 trillion pound in death and got absolutely nothing to show for it they’ve done nothing with 1.3 trillion pound apart from blow on Liz truss’s budget and trying to see brexit which has being a disaster trying to fly people to the one day I mean the list is endless with them it’s just money after the money after money just being spent on on futile things instead of the things that so what do you want are you frustrated when you hear Rachel Reeves and other labor figures saying uh you know fiscal responsibility fiscal rules we’re going to have to be really careful if once we take a look at the at the money because I I think we’re all fooling ourselves aren’t we if we think it’ll be handing out the sweets on day one a absolutely this is the problem that labor are going into they’re going into a storm of of catastrophic failures from this government with no money to even look at it the difference between labor going into this in this year compared to 1997 was that we had the Boom in econony economy in 1997 so labor was able to do the things that was necessary to do inent invest in the NHS invest in Shar introduced the minimum wage labor can’t do at this point it’s but 22.3 trillion in debt we’ve got to get it down and now where did they start but everything why don’t you address well I think I think Brian knows his stuff I think he he’s making some very good points it will be a challenging inheritance if there’s a labor government I think you know what I’d come back to you about fiscal discipline is I mean if you look at what this country is spending now on on servicing our national debt compared to what we projected it to be a few years ago it’s the difference between you know the mid 20 billions and 80 billion then part of that is the irresponsibility of Liz trust so I always say to people you cannot posit a sort of tension between being responsible with the national finances and and doing the things that people want the sweets as you say because actually if you don’t do that you’ll spend a lot more money but you’ll spend it on things that actually have no no impact on people Brian also makes a good point that if you think about the the global financial crisis under labor that you know the problem was caused by the collapse of of of Taxation income corporation tax receipts from Financial Services collapsed that is different to what is being spent I would say something charitable about the government though Brian I’d say you know I think the interventions that were necessary things like fur there was there were the right things in the pandemic but the bottom line is 14 years for conservative government low business investment low productivity low growth that’s what sets up the high taxes and the poor public services and the squeeze on living standards that’s what’s got to change and it’s going to take a change of government to do that we have four minutes left I want to do a quick sort of round of the studio to just get one thought from you on the one conclusion that you or the one lesson that you can take from tonight let’s start with you Jonathan GIS we need to continue to double down on the five pledges from the Prime Minister which are the priorities of the Great British public and remind people that a vote for reform will lead to sec starm in T dowy Street Grant tuer I don’t think there’s a huge passion for labor I think tonight’s been an anti-tory vote labor now need to turn that into a pro labor vote and a time for change message Susan Kramer I think we have to focus we focus on listening to people and the messages I get that we need to deal with the economy and I think that can be done some of that’s investment but some of that is things like just simply having an industrial strategy or getting closer to our former markets in Europe so we can trade again and again our small businesses trading as well as the absolute Essentials in public services we’re going to have to prioritize those to me the NHS comes right at the front of the queue because that also knocks on to the econ care social care social care social care social care social care to quote Ed that’s and he’s right because if you deal with that you can deal with the NHS and other we’ve got to get our priorities sorted and explain to people you can’t have everything on day one but we can build to it um the conservative par is in deep deep trouble it’s it’s pretty much all of their worst expectations they’re on course to lose half their counselors that they’re um that’s are being counted this evening that will put them at heading towards 500 by close of play um and who knows what’s going to happen in some of these big ticket context this is this is about as bad as it gets it’ll be interesting and quite amusing I imagine over the weekend to watch some of the spin come out trying to portray these as good results but this is about as bad as it gets for the conservatives and ra soon act Joe tman it’s really easy to extrapolate a bit too much about by elections and local elections but they present challenges which parties have to overcome labor have consistently done that and continue to do so Johnny Reynolds No complacency but labors beating the T in the places that count when it comes to forming the next government well I think the main lesson from tonight is that labor has won in virtually all of the places it needed to win with the possible exception of harow but I think most labor Str Incredibly Close wasn’t it it was close but I think most labor strategists would have accepted that but the key battles are really going to come tomorrow and Saturday because if labor can take teas Valley if labor can take the West Midlands that puts the prime minister in an incredibly awkward position and who knows what might happen after that what would you take from it well I would similar to you really and and the two those two big maril votes in the West Midlands um Andy Street and uh in teas Valley as well even if he were to win them I mean I can’t I think Grant it was you who was suggesting that the Gaza Factor might swing Street yeah and and in London uh but even if he were to win them the two conservative um mayor campaigns it’s still it’s still thin GRL isn’t it to go towards the general election with um I mean briefly on that Jon it’s thing gruul isn’t it to take it’s not it’s not a wild factor that labor can perhaps even at this stage say that you could take and and run with towards the general election really briefly if you would I personally disagree labor have openly said that they were focusing on three moralities the East Midlands West Midlands and teas Valley and obviously we’re hoping that we can retain two of those thanks very much indeed for keeping it that brief thanks to all of our guests and to you for calling in throughout the night and to our theologist and poller as well uh that’s it from us from Ian and from me you’re carrying on uh you’re going on a motorbike in fact uh across LBC and LBC news you’ve been listening to election Night Live coming up next on LBC news Lisa aiz while here on LBC Nick Ferrari at breakfast thanks Sheila thanks Ian at 6 o’cl on Friday May the 3D at an election special take that sunak a kicking in the polls first the byelection in Blackpool the last election the conservatives majority was 3,690 so they’ve really collapsed considerably and it demonstrates the reform can really hurt them that’s pollster Joe tman speaking with LBC earlier and the local elections are not much better they’ve lost nearly everything they’ve clung on to harow but here’s Suella bravman again on LBC I’m really disappointed that labor of gained Rushmore conservatives have been running that for some time you know we have to see what the overall picture looks like the end of all of these results in other news the protesters of pekam who stopped a coachload of immigrants on their way to the BBY Stockholm and amazingly it would have SE the authorities yielded to them cuz no one got
39 Comments
She’s talking about everything but the thing which infuriates Britons ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND TOO MANY IMMIGRANTS.
I'll bet Sunak will anounce the small boat arrivals have gone down since his flagship policy has succeeded so fabulously well
Can't believe I'm first comment, rolling up eight hours after release.
Where's all the usual election night wonks?
Brian. 7.51.30. If Labour in that national debt, is gonna be a lot higher.
Mark Harper is more ignorant and useless than previous Transport Secretary's Can't Shapps and Michael Green combined.
The TORIES have bankrupted the country and Labour already being blamed for National debt. Get a grip !
Sadiq khan won for London. it's the happiest day I have for last 14 years.
I vote for Sangita back or if not James to leave and make his own channel with sangita
I am at a loss as to why the vote count should be so slow!
Labour are always held to a harsher standard than Conservatives.
They can win hundreds of council seats, flip control of multiple councils, and the UK media headlines would be 'disappointing performance', 'hard road ahead, after lacklustre results', and 'Labour leadership should consider stepping down'.
By contrast, Conservatives can lose hundreds of councillors, lose control of councils, and the UK media release blue balloons, fire out tonnes of ticker-tape, and praise the result as a validation of Tory ideology.
Anyone claiming we have a 'left wing media' in the UK is deluded, or complicit in Tory mismanagement.
Reform have to lie about Labour immigration policy, because they aren't a serious party.
They are a lobbying company, aiming to steer Conservative policy.
They have nothing to offer local voters.
no credibility, boycott LBC
Where is SANGITA MYSKS??????????????😊
When people were claiming Boris Johnson was 'ambushed by cake'… after the voter ID thing, I'm starting to realise how the cake managed to get the upper hand.
Funny how they keep pushing the Greens on us all night. As a Yank I didn't realize how biased to the right UK media is.
A message to tax paying hardworking English 'leave now for another country. " The UK is 3rd world now, and you deserve better
🙄😑
Those disgraced journalists critised Labour's Mayor of London not doing so well? Oder am I dreaming?
dreadfully low turnout, with the role of reform apparently crucial
Vote REFORM UK
The Squatter needs removed from No 10, time to hail your private jet Rishi
Tories are finished. You can blather about boat crossing all you like but many of us have far far serious day to day concerns. Rwanda effect will not win any election.
Where's Sangita Myska you corrupt cowards?
Bring back Sangita, lbc are idf war crime apologists and cowards.
Andrea Leadsom is in cloud cuckoo land
Sangita…????
When the tories and reform say they will lower taxes, i am not sure people hear the fact that they mean the biggest savings will be for the billionaires and corporations and will sign the death warrant for all public services including the NHS.
yeah we can't have people protesting about one of our allies over its genocidal attacks on Palestine, after all Israel needs Lebensraum
I think brexit has ruined the conservatives
The real winner was voting apathy and that hardly anyone turned out!
Scouser saying a booming economy, we'd just been through a global crash where houses were worth nothing and labour had just blown all of our gold. The tories went into a broke treasury.
Patrick from Beckenham point made end of. I'd vote for Pat.
Anybody to get rid of the ulez mayor scrap ulez protest vote people
Regurgitated Thatcherism belongs in the toilet
Mark Harper has he just escaped from a mental home , never heard so much drivel in all my life
What a WASTE OF TIME! Dale pontificating interminably. Foggy the usual nonentity. Marr past his bedtime.
⚠️LBC⚠️
LEADING BRITAIN'S CLAPTRAP
Get rid of khan and his ridiculous rules
Khan = knife crime disaster. Congratulations London