Bourse : le moment d’être un optimiste paranoïaque

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##Sommaire
00:00 Intro
00:38 Fed : le début de la fête sur les marchés ?
04:41 L’offre Synapses Live +
05:01 Que nous disent ces autres chiffres de l’inflation ?
08:11 Une économie U.S. hyper résiliente ?
09:30 Craindre un effet retard ?
15:11 Un risque du côté de l’immobilier d’entreprise US ?
17:30 Le marché du travail, un indicateur avancé ?
20:49 L’apport de la main d’œuvre étrangère aux U.S.
25:06 Une amélioration de l’industrie U.S. ?
29:13 Pourquoi surveiller les exportations coréennes ?
31:41 Un retour possible de l’inflation post-déstockage ?
33:47 Un risque de déception du marché ?
37:02 Bientôt une opportunité ?
40:15 Comment éviter les “gadins” ?
42:54 La synthèse de Vincent
45:46 L’offre Synapses Live +

#bourse #économie #actions

##Vidéo enregistrée le 28 mars 2024
Stéphane Déo, gérant senior chez ELEVA Capital, avait fort à-propos conseillé de s’exposer aux actions lorsque nous l’avions reçu sur @Synapses en octobre 2023. La bourse s’est envolée depuis et le CAC 40, comme ses homologues américains, vole de record en record.

Alors que Jerome Powell le président de la Réserve fédérale des États-Unis (FED) a confirmé que des baisses de taux auraient bien lieu en 2024 et que la vigueur de la croissance américaine ne se dément pas, les marchés boursiers paraissent avoir un boulevard devant eux. Le Nasdaq le S&P 500 ainsi que le CAC 40 sont-ils assurés d’atteindre de nouvelles cimes ?
Les choses ne sont pas toujours aussi simples qu’il y paraît, si l’on en croit Stéphane Déo, selon qui le risque demeure que les baisses de taux de la Fed surviennent bien plus tard que ce que les investisseurs anticipent, un scénario qui est d’autant moins à écarter que l’inflation n’est pas totalement rentrée dans sa tanière et que la croissance américaine a de bonnes chances de bien se tenir ces prochains mois.
Dans ce contexte, ne pas être exposé aux actions est sans doute une erreur, le faire aveuglément en serait une autre, sans doute plus grave. Quelle stratégie adopter ? Stéphane Déo nous répond.

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Hello everyone and welcome to Synapses. Didn’t the United States Federal Reserve, through its President Jerome Powell, give a strong buy signal to the stock markets? Well, that’s what we’re going to see with our guest Stéphane Déo, manager at Eleva. But before starting the discussion with Stéphane, a little ritual reminder, but essential, to

Support us. Subscribe, comment on the shows, share them and give a thumbs up if you like them. Stéphane, hello. Hello Vincent. So the last monetary policy committee of the Federal Reserve was hailed by the markets as the start of the party and for good

Reason since the American Central Bank tells us that the American economy is doing well and that it will lower its interest rates. interest. So there is nothing that can stop the stock markets? So, I think that unfortunately, it’s a little bit more complicated than that. The American economy

Is indeed doing well, even doing very well. We talked about it in a show on Synapses a few months ago. I think the consensus was far too cautious in the fall. Now it’s almost done. On the other hand, we also have inflation problems. Inflation

Is undoubtedly falling, undeniably, but the latest figures are a little worrying. So indeed, the Fed, in all probability, will cut rates by the end of the year. But I think the market may have moved a little too quickly. And I think

There are still a lot of doubts about the downward path in the second half of the year. So we have a graph that appears. There, these are the market’s expectations for a rate cut from the United States Federal Reserve. So we see in fact that expectations have

Evolved significantly, since a few months ago, we had 7 rate cuts planned, and then, we are expecting 3 rate cuts of 0.25, roughly speaking. . It’s exactly that. If you remember, at the beginning of November, there was a very, we call it dovish, speech

From the Fed. Very dove. Colombe, in good French. Very accommodating from the Fed. And so the markets said to themselves, well, they are going to lower rates enormously. And so, by January 1st of this year, the market was saying, I’m sure they’re going to go down 6 or 7 times. Well,

3 months later, the market tells us, I’m sure they will go down 3 times. So you see, there has been a huge change. What happened in the meantime? We realized, one, that the American economy was much more resilient and much stronger than expected.

And two, as I said previously, we still had some inflation figures which were not as good as we expected. And so, we have a FED which has backpedaled by saying Don’t get excited, it will come, but a little later. And if you look… So just

A clarification, it’s March 28, the day we recorded this video, I specify this because yesterday, March 27, there is a member of the FED called Wallace, who made a speech saying, we are in no hurry, we need more data before lowering rates

, etc. So there is a little cold shower. March 28 is also important because it is the day before an important number. Tomorrow, Friday March 29, we have the PCI, which is the GDP deflator, therefore the GDP price index for the month of February. I remind you

That in January, there was a fairly strong increase, 5.1% at a manualized rate, which is far too much for the Fed. The consensus expects a 0.3% increase over one month for tomorrow. 0.3 over a month is 3.6. Here too, it is very, very above the Fed’s objective, which is, I remind you,

2%. So we don’t have the number yet. If the figure is very low, we will start saying yes, yes, indeed, they will lower rates in June. But we shouldn’t have 2-3 high figures in a row, because we will once again find ourselves postponing the

First rate cuts. So you see, I think the situation is probably much less clear. than some people on the markets want to say. Small interlude before resuming the interview, to remind you that if you wish to obtain complete analyzes on themes or sectors, and to know what investment opportunities

We have in our sights with the experts at Alpha Value, you can subscribe by clicking on the form that appears at the top right of the screen or on the link in the description. So in fact, there is a graph that you brought us which is quite interesting Stéphane, because well,

A figure does not make a trend, we know that, there can be quite significant variations, then corrections and revisions moreover of these same figures in the weeks which follow. So here, we do not have the figure published on March 29, but, as you said, it will have to

Be taken into consideration. Those watching will have to take this into consideration. That said, there is a graph that I come back to and which seems quite interesting to me because it looks a little at the behavior of inflation over different months. So, I would like you

To comment on it, that is to say that we are going to start from the right of this graph, that is to say the last one. And we’re going to go back down. So, what you see on these bars is inflation,

So in our jargon, we call that core inflation, so we remove certain very volatile components, because that gives a better view of the trends. Core inflation last month was 4.4%. This is much more than in the previous three months. This

Means that the last month was stronger than the last quarter. If you look at the last quarter, it was stronger than the last six months. If you look at the last six months, they were stronger than the total year. So we are reaccelerating, very,

Very clearly. And, well, here I made you a graph, but there are other indicators which show that. The big debate is, is this just a short-term thing? That is to say, since the end of last year, we have had prices going back up. So, it’s not dramatic,

Let’s be clear. I’m not talking about inflation returning to 10% as we experienced not so long ago. But the latest figures, unfortunately, show that we have something that is slowly reaccelerating. So this can be explained by different elements. For example, you have

Real estate prices that are rebounding because there is a huge shortage of real estate in the United States. So paradoxically, even with high interest rates, when you don’t have sellers, prices continue to rise. You have salaries that remain relatively dynamic. So that

‘s very good news because there is consumption. But if you are a business, that means that your production costs are increasing, since wages are increasing. You’re looking to pass on the increase in those costs. And you can, since wages are increasing,

So the consumer can pay more. So you have a snowball effect. And so you see, once again, I really don’t want to paint too dark a picture. There is no question of returning to 10% inflation or anything else. But the latest figures tend to

Tell us that inflation will stabilize somewhere between 3 and 4, a wide range, rather than gently reconverging towards the FED’s 2% objective. And in that case, you have an economy that is very strong, so you don’t really need to lower rates. And yet,

If you lower rates, you run the risk of adding fuel to the fire and that your 3-4% inflation becomes 4-5, or even more. And there, on the other hand, it will become problematic. So, I would like us to focus now on the purely activity part of the reasoning,

Because we have, and we have also received on Synapses, some of your colleagues, who see signs of deterioration of the cycle in the USA. However, I have the impression that you say, Stéphane, that no, in fact, the American economy is very resilient. And therefore,

The scenario of higher inflation which would postpone rate cuts gains credibility. That’s a bit of the idea. That’s a bit of the idea. And when we last spoke , it was in September-October, consensus growth expectations were at 1% for the

United States. We are at 2.1% now. So we doubled. So we doubled, I’m cheating a little, because when we go from 1 to 2, it’s not huge either. So there is something that has happened in terms of the resilience of the economy. I think there are several elements. The

First element is a fiscal stimulus which is colossal. We have a public deficit which is enormous. The American state gives enormously… …opened the floodgates. Yes, completely. So, it boosts the economy. And the second point which is very unusual is that the economy has

Resisted rate increases very well. So yes, precisely, I wanted us to come to this because one of the fears of many is that ultimately, these rate increases which have produced little damage today, we do not see with an economy as vigorous, one might wonder what

The effect of the rate hike is. They’re actually saying the rate hike was so abrupt, so fast, that the economy hasn’t yet absorbed those rate hikes, it hasn’t reacted yet. And so there would be sort of a delayed effect of these rate hikes. So that’s a scenario

That you don’t really subscribe to. No way. If you look at rate increases, take the housing market for example. You had the FED rate hikes. Rate increases on home loans followed immediately, as usual. Sales volumes collapsed , as usual, so there was no delay at all. The economy reacted,

As usual. So why does it hold up? This holds for a very simple reason, on households. This is because 10 years ago, 20 years ago, a large part of real estate loans were at variable rates. So when rates go up, you have a mortgage,

It costs you a lot more. There, we only have fixed rates. Not just fixed rates, but more than 95% fixed rates. Yes, it completely changes the situation. I am going to give you an example. I have a good friend who is in Miami, who has a mortgage he took out 3-4 years ago,

At 2.7%. It still has 25 years, a quarter of a century, at 2.7%. The FED can do whatever it wants, he doesn’t care. On the other hand, during Covid, he was paid, he did not spend his money because,

Like you and me, we were locked up. And on his bank deposits, he earns 5%. because the Fed raised rates to 5%. Yes, he invested in Money Market Funds. Exactly. So, paradoxically, the Fed raises rates, that doesn’t change its financial costs, but it brings it more

Money. So, let’s be clear, I’m not telling you that when the Fed raises rates, it’s good for the economy, but what I’m saying is that there has certain phenomena that have taken place, which are unusual compared to the previous cycle.

Which make the economy react much less to interest rate increases. And we see it, if you look at the financial expenses of households, divided by their income, so it’s how much you spend on financial expenses compared to what you earn. It’s

A graphic that we have in the image, yes. We are simply not far from historic lows. Yes, it’s quite spectacular, indeed. And above all, there were rate hikes from the Fed. but this ratio does not rebound. So there is definitely something like inertia. Afterwards, here too,

I told you, we must not be too gloomy about inflation, we must not be too rosy about consumption either. You have bank credits, in particular bank cards, where, same thing, we saw an immediate reaction, that is to say the rates on bank cards

Are adjusted immediately, there was no lag at all, and as a result, the defect rate, which was extremely low, returns to normal still with the same usual delay effect. So, let’s be clear, the Fed’s rate increases are negative for growth,

Undoubtedly, but much, much less than it was 10 years ago, or 20 years ago, or 30 years ago. And so, you have an economy which, ultimately, is not holding up that badly. So, we finally saw the graph of the relationship between debt service and household income.

On the business side, is it ultimately the same thing? Same price. This is the other graph. The CFOs of American companies are not stupid. 2-3 years ago, when rates were extremely low, they borrowed long term. They have a lot of cash

On their balance sheet. And so, it’s like my friend from Miami, it’s ultimately what they pay on their debt changes little, because there is a large part that is fixed, and on the other hand, on the cash that they

Have on their balance sheet, they do money market, and therefore they are at 5%. So, obviously, the argument is valid, but is not eternal. That is to say that at some point, we will have to reprice this

Debt. That’s what I wanted to tell you. We are talking about the debt wall and the refinancing wall. Yes. So, at some point, indeed, it will start to have an impact. But look at the chart. If you look at the financial costs of companies, we have data since 1945,

60 years of data, 80 years, sorry, we are at a historic low. So yes, it will normalize, it will normalize little by little, because all the debt will mature overnight , it will happen gradually. We must not forget that in the meantime, you will

Reprice your debt, but in the meantime you have had 10% inflation, followed by 4%, so corporate profits have gained 15-20% in the meantime. So you increase your financial costs, but before that you had a jump in profits which was very significant. So yes, it will have a negative impact

Once again. I want to hear from you, I certainly don’t want to tell you that rate increases are positive for the economy. But it’s very difficult for me to tell an anxiety-provoking scenario or a serious crisis scenario with this situation. Is

American commercial real estate still not a concern for you? Because there, we see that it’s quite bloody, what’s happening there. Yes, yes, completely. I think this is an important source of risk. It’s a bit of the usual story. The rates were extremely low, so I’m not going

To say that we did everything and anything, but we can think about it a little. But a little, yes, all the same. And so, at some point, when rates return to more normal levels, I’m sorry, but we have 2%, 2.5% growth, 2, 2.5% inflation, 5% nominal growth,

We have even been well above it for several quarters. Having rates at 4.2 on the American 10-year bond is not aberrant at all, on the contrary. So it’s more what we experienced in previous years that constituted the anomaly. Which was, lo and behold, exactly an anomaly. And

So yes, indeed, in certain sectors, but it’s not just commercial real estate. You have the same thing in private equity, where there are very clearly companies that have been financed. with rates that were extremely low. So when rates are at zero, you

Are patient. If I tell you, I will make you millions in 2-3 years, if you finance at zero, you wait. When the rates are at 4 or 5, obviously it’s a different story. So there will be problems. The question for me is, is this a systemic problem,

Like Lehman, like subprimes? I do not think so. I don’t think so for two reasons. First, because the market size is small. So, we said the same thing with subprimes, so it’s not a annoying argument. And the second reason is that this problem of

Commercial real estate, we see it emerging, and it’s not a German problem where everything explodes at the same time. It’s more of a problem where you have a building in New York that doesn’t sell for much, and then you have a company that goes bankrupt in San Francisco, and it happens little by

Little. So indeed it is negative, it weighs on growth, it will weigh on the financial results, in particular of regional banks, but it is not the explosion where everything collapses at the same time. In any case, not for the moment, and I think that this is not the central scenario.

Isn’t the job market starting to simmer, but not in a good way? That is to say, ultimately, is the slight rise in the unemployment rate not an indicator, for once, a little advanced of what is a deterioration to come? I think we were in labor market conditions that were totally aberrant,

With a labor market that was extremely tight. To give you an order of magnitude, we had the quits rate, that is to say the number of people who resign to go to the side and earn more money, which was at levels that we had never seen before. seen. So when

You are in this situation, there is a huge shortage of jobs. You have a survey in the United States called the NFIB, it’s a survey of small businesses, and we tell them why you don’t produce more, what your main problem is. So

Obviously the answer is always, well almost always, the demand is not strong enough, I would like to produce more but I can’t sell. For a year or two, very recurrently, I haven’t been able to use it. So there is a real subject of

Labor shortage which can be explained by the fact that certain people left the job market , in particular seniors, during Covid, did not return. Which can also be explained by the fact that consumption changed during Covid. So there are certain sectors

That find themselves with a lot of growth while others do not. So we must try to change. So we were on levels that were extremely tense. There, in fact, these tensions are being resolved little by little. And so there is a big debate among economists

, it is that we started from very high, we go down, if we extend the line, in fact we are going to recession. Another way of looking at things is that the very high was completely aberrant, we have now returned to levels which are ultimately normal. And when I

Look at the job market, I still remember that the United States has 178 million employees . That’s 3 million jobs created last year. It’s monstrous. And despite this, the unemployment rate has increased. So that means that to be in balance, it’s not 3 million, it’s

Probably 3.5 million or 4 million jobs that need to be created each year. Honestly, you have positive salaries, you create 3 million jobs. I find it difficult to be pessimistic about consumption, because you distribute income in a colossal way. So I am

Rather in the camp of those who say, we had tensions which were totally abnormal, we returned to a level which is a little more reasonable, so much the better because there it will help the FED on the other hand, that means that wage pressures will not explode, but it means

That the economy should continue to hold up. So yes for the slowdown in growth, I would still like to point out that we have had six quarters in a row of growth above potential. So,

It’s not that things are going well, things are going very, very well in the United States. If that slows down a little and we return to 2, 2.5% growth, that would absolutely not surprise me. We talked about it, it seems to me, the last time you came, Stéphane, it was ultimately the contribution

Of foreign labor to the job market. I would like us to do it again a little bit of a point on this, because you ultimately said that it is a very, very strong dynamic and it is a support for growth. So we have the graph, so here it is the

Labor force of foreigners in the United States, so we are even at quite significant levels and we see that it has progressed very significantly, even compared to 2019, it is that is to say before the health crisis, and that we have largely exceeded these pre-health crisis levels. So there,

How many millions of foreigners are there? We are talking about the active population. So, that’s a very good question, because indeed, we spoke in September or October, when I came, Jerome Powell spoke about it in February, saying, look, there is really something that is

Pass. So, I think it’s a topic that’s really important. Over the last decade, so 2010-2020, you had around 400,000 foreigners per year who found a job in the United States. All right ? So this increased the labor force by 400,000 units each year. There,

For two years, we have been on a rate of one million and five. So we tripled, even a little more, the pace. What does it mean ? This means that you have a workforce arriving, which is very important. So that means that you can create your 3 million jobs

Without creating enormous tensions. And so you can continue to have a very strong growth rate , because you have, in our economist jargon, we call it a supply shock. The supply is you and me, it’s the people with two feet of hands who arrive on the

Job market. The labor supply is increasing since you have all these foreigners arriving. And so, you can continue to create more than 3 million jobs per year. without generating overheating or excessive wage pressure, and therefore it is sustainable. And then 3 million per year, with 178

Million employees, that’s roughly 1.6, 1.7, I don’t want to bombard you with figures, but you add 1% of productivity, you have 2.6, 2.7% trend growth. So 3 million jobs is 1.6, 1.7% growth in payroll. Yes. So with the productivity gain,

That doesn’t take us far from 3%. You are on a 2.5% jump. Easy. The question that arises is that of the capacity to absorb this workforce, because in fact, there is an influx of population. So it creates a dynamic, obviously, but the demand for work must still

Be strong. Of course, but it snowballs. Because if you create 3 million jobs, that’s 3 million more salaries, and therefore more consumers. If in addition your salaries are growing faster than inflation, that means that all these people are consuming more than

The previous year. So you have demand, so you have to create jobs. And so it’s something that’s actually self-perpetuating, at least for now. So where the problem lies is that we actually have signs of slowdown in certain sectors,

Job creation, etc. I’ll just remind you of one detail: you still have more job offers than unemployed people in the United States. That means that if you put the entire American population to work, it’s not enough. So, yes, it will slow down. For me, it’s very, very difficult,

Unless you have an exogenous shock, as usual. Unless we have a violent exogenous shock, it is very difficult for me to see the American economy slowing down very, very significantly. For you, she cannot go to the mat in the current conditions? No,

Except exogenous shock. But we cannot predict that. Let’s perhaps take a little interest in American industry? Because it was not the most flourishing, all the same, the purchasing managers’ index was not at very encouraging levels. Do you see the situation turning around a little, more favorably or not? So that

Tends to improve. I would just like to make a small caveat, you were talking about purchasing managers, so it’s the PMI in fact. The PMI was very bad at forecasting GDP for 2-3 years. To be honest, we don’t know why. I tried, I conducted my little survey

Among all the specialists, we don’t know why, but the signal given by the PMI, also in Europe, was much too pessimistic compared to what ‘gave the figures. So we have to be careful, I know that the markets, every time the PMI comes out,

Look at it with a magnifying glass and react enormously. In fact, it is an indicator which, for the moment, is relatively reliable. More than relative. Finally, if you had followed the PMI, you would have done some stupid things, to put it plainly. That being said, what we are starting to

See now is indeed something of an inflection problem, that is to say that corporate morale tends to rise. So I have an explanation, which is a good explanation because I cannot prove to you that I am right, you cannot

Prove to yourself that I am wrong, but which is a story of clearance. What happened during Covid? You have many companies which have not been delivered, in spare parts, in God knows what, therefore which have been forced to cut their production. After Covid, they

Said to themselves I’ve been fooled, I’m not going to be fooled twice. So they rebuilt stocks, but not to the pre-Covid level, much higher. So we had a sort of huge pull of air towards the water, because suddenly we had to produce a lot. Then we realized that these

Stocks were very large, too large, so little by little we said to ourselves, well no, it’s stupid to keep so many, I’m going to lower them a little because it costs me a lot . When you readjust, you no longer need to produce since you see if you have demand,

You will tap into your stocks. So temporarily, your production is a little low. And if everyone does this at the same time, PMIs are going to be bad. That doesn’t mean that production collapses when we do less than 10 on production, it means that everyone

Drops a little. So I think that’s a bit of what happened, and we also see it on international trade, that is to say that if you look at international trade in relation to economic growth, there is had a kind of air hole at the bottom which is a little

Difficult to explain, and which is certainly linked to that, it’s clearance, it’s finally, you no longer order your spare parts in Korea, in Thailand , or God knows where, because you no longer need it, and therefore your international trade dwindles. If this is

The right interpretation, and I think that one thing that we do well at Eleva is to combine the economic view that I have just told you and the view of businesses, because we are a company of action management. And many companies tell us exactly this story with

Slightly different words. If the destocking is over, we have to get back to work and we have to get back to producing. And so, this is what we see in the PMIs, that is to say that the

Purchasing managers tell you… You said, I don’t like my stocks, I have way too much , a few months ago, we returned to normal. He told you but my order books, they are not great, a few months ago. There, it bounces back. This is exactly what we want to see.

It’s more stocks and order books that are rebounding. So, you have clearly understood why I went on this subject, because it is true that it is one of the reservations that we can have about the American cycle, to see these purchasing managers’ indices which are rather

At half mast. That being said, there is a graph that I would like us to display, and it is a graph that comes from your research and Bloomberg. This is a graph that relates the American purchasing managers’ index, in the manufacturing sector, to Korean exports.

And then why? Because for you, in fact, Korean exports are an indicator progress of this indicator. so-called advanced, What is PMI? The underlying story is that if the economy picks up, you need parts, supplies, etc. Korea is one of the important suppliers. So if the Koreans start exporting a lot, it’s probably

Because there is something happening in the industry. For the record, we have the same thing in Europe, with the front indicator, confidence. companies in Belgium. Because Belgium is a small central country which is a hub. So when we see

Trade rebounding in Belgium, it’s because suddenly things are starting to move again in Europe. It’s kind of the same idea. And there indeed, it works, it is not completely reliable , obviously there are always false starts, etc. But what the chart tells us

Is that it actually validates this idea that things are starting to pick up again. And our way of saying it was the head of PMI in the United States last month who said, because I told you the story, order books are going back up, stocks have

Fallen. For him, we are going to go back above 50, that is to say the level… Yes, the dividing line between the decline and the growth of activity. There you go, he said within two months, we should go back above 50. So, obviously, it’s a leading indicator, so

We can’t predict it. That’s why it’s a leading indicator. But according to him, we are on a dynamic which validates the graph that you have in front of you, in fact. So since we started with inflation, I’ll come back to it, because this story of destocking was deflationary,

It contributed to disinflation, we can say that. The fact that we are going back into a restocking cycle, or in any case where we have cleared stocks, doesn’t that militate precisely for inflation which could be a little higher than what reality expects? So, to

Be completely honest, I hope I’m wrong about this. I sincerely hope I’m wrong about this, but we’re starting to see a whole bunch of dross. Wages are less dynamic than they were , this is the discussion we had, but they remain at levels which are incompatible

With inflation at 2%. There is indeed a resumption of activity in certain sectors post-destocking. which is more likely to put pressure on prices. As I said, real estate prices are also increasing. So that means that rents, which represent a

Third of inflation in the United States, are starting to rise again. So there are a whole bunch of little cycles like that which, to be honest, I don’t like at all. And that’s why making the assumption that yes, obviously, the Fed will lower its rates in June is perhaps

Moving a little too quickly. I think it remains a very high probability, but we will have to wait for 2-3 figures of inflation. That’s what I said in the introduction, Wallace, last night, told us, well no, I want to wait for a little more evidence, I want to

See numbers falling more recurrently before really moving. So if we have March, April, May, with low inflation figures, yes, they are going fast, but it is very, very data-dependent, that is to say it depends enormously on the few figures that we will have to

Get our heads around by this summer, I think. So what you are identifying, Stéphane, is a risk of market disappointment. On rates, yes, I think so. Yes, not on growth. No. At the beginning of the year, as we said, the market said no, no, it’s certain, they will fall six times.

There, we said then, but it’s certain, they will fall three times. somewhat the same situation. I find that the interest rate market has moved quickly. He makes the hypothesis that indeed, inflation will gently converge again towards 2. It’s probable, it’s possible, but I think

That there are still a lot of uncertainties, and above all, the latest figures don’t tell not this story. That’s the problem, is that the latest figures tell you no, no, it’s going back. So it’s two, three months, so it’s not a real trend. Do

You fear a surge in American long rates? So that’s one of my fears. Imagine if the Fed told us, no, but in fact it’s not June, it’s July for the rate cut. Then she tells us, no, but it’s not July, it’s September, etc. You have short rates

Which are at 5%. You have 10-year rates which are at 4.2. I’m rounding, but hey, it’s good. That ‘s absurd. Because, obviously, if you invest for 10 years, you take more risk, so normally your rate should be higher. Why is the curve inverted,

In our jargon, that is to say short rates are higher than long rates? Because we say to ourselves, yes, yes, but I am investing at 5% now, and as the Fed will lower rates soon, we will reconverge. Good. We had exactly the same story in 2007. We

Have a small crisis, in fact. So in 2007, you had Fed Funds, therefore Fed key rates, at 5.25. And you had the American 10-year which was around 4.50. So this looks very similar to our situation. And the market was saying that, it was saying no, no, but they’re

Going to lower rates soon. Then a month later, we realized that they would not have lowered the rates. So we said no, no, but they are going to lower rates. It lasted almost all of 2007,

And then at a certain point, the market said, well no, the rate cut, we’re not going to postpone it indefinitely. My 10 years is much too low, and we gained 60 BP, that is to say 0.6% in one big month. Yes, which is considerable for a bond market. Can we have the

Same thing in the scenario that I describe, which once again, it is not my central scenario, but where the Fed says, no but ultimately, it is not July, it is: you shift, you shift. At some point, the market will throw in the towel and return the 10-year to the short rate level.

And 4.2 plus 0.6, you see, you’re not far from 5%. The market that we are not going to like, very clearly. So once again, I’m sorry to insist heavily, this is not my central scenario, but this risk that we saw materialize in 2007 where long rates

Suddenly rebound because ultimately the decline rate, we push it back, we push it back, we push it back and then it never happens, for me it’s a scenario that is plausible and it can be argued, even if it is not a central scenario, so it you have to be careful. In fact,

The big idea that I get from everything you tell us, Stéphane, is that we cannot blindly expose ourselves to the stock market today, that is to say that we must be exposed since the trend is there and well, we still have positive signals, but

Being very aggressive, this is perhaps not the time. So we were quite aggressive, we can say quite aggressive from September-October, because the consensus was very pessimistic. Yes, you said we had to go, I remember, you were very clear. Except that here, the consensus is no longer pessimistic. So the

Upside surprise potential for the market is quite limited. So, my central scenario is, once again, the American economy, well, it’s perhaps slowing down a little. Honestly, whether there is 2% or 2.5% growth, it doesn’t really change the face of the world for the markets. And

So the markets continue to rise at a much more moderate pace, but continue to rise. The counter-argument is indeed a problem. At some point, it’s not a growth issue. It’s a problem of inflation which is stubborn, which does not want to go below

3.5. So interest rates that rise, there you can have an accident. So accident, let’s be clear, it’s not 20% correction. but we have positions on the market which are now very aggressive. We see in particular the CTAs, you know, they are automated management that takes positions based on market trends. CTAs that

Manage hundreds of billions are extremely exposed to stocks. In other words, if they move, they will move to reduce their positions. So we can very well have a mechanism that is put in place at a given moment and have a correction of 5 to 10%. So it’s a market that I don’t

Really like, because we remain exposed, because the central scenario is that it continues to rise much more slowly than in recent months, because that’s when Even going very quickly, but we continue to climb slowly. But we have to be careful, because I wouldn’t be surprised if we

Had a correction of 5 to 10% in… Obviously, I can’t predict it, I’m sorry, but 5 to 10% correction, that’s happens once every three months almost on average, but it will be an opportunity to enter, for me, it is an opportunity to enter because once again

The fundamentals, I really have a hard time scaring myself on the economic fundamentals which remain good, if you want a correction of minus 20, for me, the burden of proof is on the pessimists. There has to be a change. So, it could be the

War in Ukraine, it could be a problem in the Middle East, it could be as usual, we have a Prévert-style inventory of a whole bunch of things that could go wrong. So, never say never with the markets. But the current dynamic of the American economy

Is not to generate a minus 20 on the stock markets. Alright. Last question. We clearly note the relative prudence, but it is a cautious optimism, or an optimistic prudence, I don’t know how to say. In terms of strategy, what type of value are we moving towards? Are there

Even some themes that should be played out more than others? So I call that a paranoid optimist. Good formula That is to say, I remain on the market, but I absolutely want to avoid paranoid optimism, I note it, it is very good. THANKS. I

Absolutely want to avoid the scoundrel, because if I avoid the scoundrel… I protect my investors, etc. What we are doing is, on the international portfolio, is to start to lighten the riskiest securities a little and to put what we call componders,

That is- that is to say large companies which have a fairly strong visibility and which continue to grow. But just, I’m sorry, I’m going a little off-topic. There has been a lot of talk about the United States. I think in Europe the story is different because valuations are

Still very, very low. There too, we are really starting to see an economy which, I am not going to say rebounding because that is probably too strong. But we had basically zero growth in the second half of last year. So there, which shudders positively. That’s it, exactly.

So the cyclicals, I think that the potential for improvement for Europe is paradoxically perhaps a little higher, simply because we are starting from lower. All good news is… I’m caricature, but all good news is priced in the United States,

At least a large part of it. That’s what bothers me, is that it’s difficult to really get a lot of good news. In Europe, as usual, we are late. And so the conclusion is that we can perhaps be a little more optimistic and a little more aggressive

On Europe at the moment. Besides, I refer to one of the last broadcasts that we did . We could see that the increase was spreading across Europe, which is still quite an interesting sign. Exactly, yes, absolutely. So this is not normally a sign

Of the end of the market, it is rather a sign of the beginning of improvement on the markets. Finally, the improvement, we have reached records, we are perhaps not going to talk about improvement, that is not the term. But

Here we are, the rise is spreading, and that is a positive sign for the stock market. Well, I’ll try to summarize everything we said, Stéphane. Good luck ! I accept the challenge. So, actually, it’s pretty clear. You tell us, the markets are perhaps moving a little too

Quickly, believing that rate cuts are achieved quickly. In the United States, in this case, growth is holding up. We have a certain number of indicators which show us that the labor market is dynamic. Businesses and households are benefiting from particularly accommodating financial conditions at the moment. Once again, things will evolve,

We know that, but for the moment, things remain rather favorable in your opinion. We also see that the industrial cycle in the United States, which according to you was affected by the great destocking which followed the great storage period with the explosion in demand for goods, in particular the health crisis,

Is reaching its conclusion. end and that will allow us to start again. As a result, this also means that inflationary tensions across the Atlantic are likely to remain, in any case, they risk being higher than anticipated by the market and the Fed which, through a certain

Number of its members, says: we’re going to take our time. It could indeed take its time and actually postpone its rate increases before actually seeing that inflation returns to a level that satisfies it. Do you think this discrepancy between the market’s perception and the real level

Of inflation is at risk? to create material for correction. We’ll say it like that. This does not mean that the correction will materialize, but the risk is there. And so, you have to do

Rather… Be careful, in any case, you have to have this risk in mind, knowing that it is not a crash that you are considering, it is just a correction that will have to be implemented. profit, and instead go for rather mature companies with visibility on turnover, on activity, that’s

Roughly it, and perhaps take a little less risk in allocation. In Europe, you make it clear, there is perhaps more to be done, there is perhaps a wider population of values ​​to target, since the increase is spreading. As you said,

I am using your formula which was excellent. It’s a paranoid optimism because in the stock market, we know that the worst is never certain, but we have to prepare for it and that’s important. Stéphane, thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you for following us. Subscribe, comment,

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