The 2010 UK General Election

The 2010 election produced a hung parliament and a coalition government, but propelled Cameron into Number 10 where the Conservatives remained for (at least) another 14 years. In this video, I explain what happened in 2010, hopefully providing some useful context and analysis that should help you revise for the Voting Behaviour and the Media section of the A-Level specification. Of course, the video might also be useful for teachers and others who have an interest in this part of our history.

Hello welcome to this episode um I’m going to be talking today about the 2010 election um now this is a really important election to talk about because um it represents the transfer of power from the labor party he’d been in government who’d been in power for 13

Years under Tony Blair and then under Gordon Brown to um the conservative party LED first by Cameron um from 2010 to 2016 then by Tesa May from 2016 to 2019 then by Boris Johnson um from 2019 to 2022 then by truss briefly and then of

Course by sonnak for the last um two or so years um and we’re expecting of course that at the next election uh K starm will win um and that we’ll now have a period of of Labor government um and if you believe the polls um the polls are suggesting that it’s going to

Be a landslide for labor at the next election um so the 2010 election is important because it because it brings into being uh this long period of conservative government um it’s a big transition um from what came before um it’s also quite interesting quite important because uh the outcome of the

Election is unusual um David Cameron uh and the conservative party um had been restoring their credibility detoxifying the party um at least from the time of camera becoming leader in in in 2005 um and um Cameron is trying to project himself as this youthful um leader of the party who is

Going to modernize the party uh and get rid of dispel these ideas of the conservative party as the nasty party um and he’s somewhat successful in doing that but actually um the conservative party uh only win 36.1% of the vote in this election um and that’s oddly enough

Because um the conservative sorry the labor party’s vote Falls in this election to 29% um from 35.2% in the election before so Cameron wins enough seats to be the largest party um but his party does not have an overall majority in the House of Commons and so there is a hung

Parliament and and and what uh happens is that um very unusual thing happens actually which is that a coalition government is formed um now that hadn’t happened in British politics uh since the war and it rarely happens in peace time typically um when there’s a hung Parliament after a general election um

Leaders don’t like to go into Coalition um Harold Wilson in 74 decided to uh govern as a minority government um and Theresa May in 2017 decided that she would essentially govern as a minority government uh entering into a supply and confidence agreement with the dup that kept her in

In in office um but it wasn’t a formal Coalition um so 2010 was was interesting and unusual because we had a hung Parliament um and in order to remain in power for a full five years Cameron decides that he’s going to do a coalition agreement with the liberal

Democrats and that ends up being very stable uh and Cameron is prime minister with support of the liberal democrats for a full 5 years um so that’s why the election is important um for two two key reasons uh so let’s talk a little bit about the

Context of the election so as I said an important part of the context is that labor had been in power for 13 years um so if we go back to the beginning of that period um in 1997 Blair winds and historic Landslide for the lebor party uh winning a majority of

179 um he then fights another election in 20 2001 uh and lebba win a majority um another Landslide of 167 and then um in 2005 um with the popularity of the party and and of Blair himself falling somewhat um he wins a third decisive election Victory with majority of 66 but

As I say by that time uh the popularity of Labor had fallen to uh 35.2% in the polls um so he’s winning a majority and and a and a a very signific majority in 2005 um but largely as a quirk of the first pass of the pul

System which tends to give a massive winners born as to whoever becomes top in the polls um so that’s really important um to note because uh going into the 2010 election the labor party have already by 20 5 lost a lot of their support um and what happens in between the 2005

Election and the 2010 election is that Blair stands down now we’d promised to do that um he’d actually promised to do it ages ago um it’s that famous moment between Blair and brown um around 20 thou 1994 when when John Smith dies they’re discussing who should become

Leader of the party and apparently in an Indian restaurant um Blair decides uh or agrees sorry with with Gordon Brown that he’ll become leader um and he agrees that at some point in the future um uh Gordon Brown will take over as prime minister so that eventually happens in

2007 and it’s good timing for Blair um he’s an unusual prime minister in that he decides the time of his own leaving and he goes out with the peak of his power um very very good timing so he does 10 years um he’s obviously damaged his reputation um because of the Iraq

War in 2003 um and the fact that no weapons of mass destruction destruction were found in Iraq and um and saw he’s tarnished really Blair by this this this idea that he lied to the country that we went to war with Iraq on a false pretext uh and

In the face of one of the largest demonstrations in London that the country’s ever seen um somewhere in the region of 500,000 a million I think two million actually people on the Streets of London depending on who you believe uh protesting against that one 2003 um anyway that’s a tangent um

Gordon Brown becomes leader in 207 and so um he’s quite unlucky um and he’s also unfortunate for other reasons um he’s been Chancellor at this point Chancellor of the EXA for 10 years and so um one way of seeing Blair’s period of office is that actually um Blair uh

Focused quite a lot on foreign policy whereas Brown um had more control of a domestic policy um he used um his position of Chancellor to do what he wanted to do domestically and so you had lots of policy changes um that uh were to do with the benefit system so things

Like child tax credits um uh working people tax credits that were used to bring down pensioner poverty bring down child poverty um and so so Brown as chancellor has significant domestic achievements as Chancellor but the consequence for him as prime minister is that he’s already done a lot of what he

Wants to do um domestically by the time he takes over in 2007 um so he’s a prime minister that that is running out of ideas um reminiscent really of of of of John Major um between 1992 and 1997 um so he’s running out of ideas he’s also unfortunate in that in 2008 um

There’s the global financial crisis uh and this results in the biggest recession to hit Britain since the Great Depression in the 1930s um and it means that that that Gordon Brown has to take on um a role um both domestically and internationally in trying to deal with that crisis um

Now he’s regarded as dealing with it quite well but um dealing with it requires bailing out the banking sector uh in Britain um taking over whole Banks um to the cost of hundreds of billions of pounds um and just like the conservative party had been damaged in

199 2 by black Wednesday the financial crisis even though Brown deals with it quite well um what the conservative party managed to do is to spin the story and say that this was a um a crisis caused by Labor’s Reckless spending um and a whole narrative develops around

The idea of um the budget deficit um and essentially what what Cameron says to the country is um that Labor’s Reckless spending has resulted in this uh very large budget deficit and that the task of his government is to reduce that deficit um and essentially the press and

All of the parties including the labor party the liberal Democrats the conservatives all of the parties uh or the men parties at least uh agree with that narrative and so they all go into the election promising uh what what comes to be none as austerity uh so that is cutting government spending and

Increasing taxes um and it’s only really um the left of the labor party and the left more generally who are uh challenging that Narrative of austerity um okay so that’s the sort of context for uh lebor um for the conservative party um Cameron had become leader in

2015 um and um Cameron had become leader in the context of the party um having had some pretty un successful lead leaders between uh 1997 and uh when he takes over in 2005 so you had William heg uh you then had Ian Duncan Smith and then Michael Howard um and when Cameron

Becomes leader he’s he’s regarded as being a bit of a breath of fresh air um he’s on the liberal wing of the party um he’s more Progressive therefore on social issues um and he wants to Rebrand the party at least uh to move move away from this idea of the party that had

Developed that the Tory party were the the nasty party um and so he he he um like the pr man that he is he um does some setpiece media events uh and um he for example he he he has filmed riding a sled with Husky dogs um to butus his

Credentials as a green leader of the conservative party he talks about hugging a hoodie to distinguish him from the um quite Draconian social policies in relation to young people of the labor party the labor party under Blair had backed anti-social Behavior orders as BOS to deal with uh young people and

Cameron wants to uh project a softer image of the conservative party um in that regard and so going into this election um you’ve got a um quite complicated message from the conservative party uh they say that they’re going to be the party of the environment so they say vot

Blue go green uh they want to project a more liberal issue more more liberal image on social policy um but they’re also promising um in the context of the financial crisis and the high level of uh the deficit um they’re promising to make spending cuts uh they promised to bring

Down the deficit of parliament so that’s what they’re doing um that’s what they promised going into the election and all of the parties are promising um to do similar things economically um the difference being of a of how quickly they will do it and of the balance between uh spending cuts and tax

Rises the other thing that’s important to not going into this election that in is that in 2009 um the parliamentary expenses Scandal has broken so this was a scandal involving um MPS from across the parties um filing dodgy expenses claims um most notably there was a Tory

MP that spent um thousands and thousands of pounds on a um it was a duck house for his garden and you can you can Google the details of that but essentially this was a major Scandal Unearthed by the Daily Telegraph using the Freedom of Information Act uh and

What it what it told the public was that the political class um had been engaging in pretty corrupt behavior um okay so as I’ve said um the the main parties going into the election with with major agreement between them um particularly over the need to control public spending uh and that’s a very

Significant factor I think in this election um the Labour party um want to present themselves going into the election as being a safe Pair of Hands uh now this is interesting because it’s normally um the conservative party who go into an election with that message um you know in other words the conservative

Party typically go into election saying you can’t trust the labor party with the economy um and so the fact that the election is about the economy you could regard as being difficult for labor because the conservative party are typically the part that are trusted with the economy and so if that’s the most

Salient issue going into the election you might expect the conservative party to win um but essentially the Labour party say look um we’re on the right track um Gordon Brown has provided very good leadership during this moment of Crisis and it’s a big risk to um change

Course now and go with the conservative party the conservative party meanwhile um H are projecting the labor party as being the problem for the the economy uh Cameron argues that it that it is Labor’s Reckless spending that’s that’s got us into this mess uh and he’s got

This um rather um weird idea um called the big Society um now the big Society the idea of it was that um it’s kind of acknowledging that the government’s going to have to cut spending and therefore cut the size of the state um and the party do lean into that um after

All you know that there is a thatcherite element to this this party and to Cameron um so it acknowledges that that they’re going to have to make Cuts but what it says is um what we’re really doing is we we’re giving you the opportunity you the public to get

Involved in um the government of Britain um whether that is through Charities or Community groups or Civil Society organizations um and as the 2010 election Manifesto says um we would like to give you an invitation it says on the front page an invitation to join the government of Britain so it’s quite an

Unusual pitch um and um it doesn’t really resonate with the voting public I would I would argue um and essentially what the Tories are saying is we’ll sort out the mess that the labor party have have left um the liberal Democrats are an interesting position in this election they are

Pretty popular um they’ve had their their best election result ever in uh 2005 under Charles Kennedy uh Kennedy uh had then Steed down and gave way to Nick CLE um and um CLE goes into the election promising that whoever becomes the larger party um in the event of a hung

Parliament they will support um and their major pledge going into this election which becomes quite important because they end up going back on it in office is that they pledge um um they pledge to scrap tuition fees uh and certainly they are putting themselves in a position that where they say they’re

Not going to put those tuition fees up um which is what they end up backing once they get into government um and and so Nick CLE is positioning his party as um the party of change um the liberal Democrats are going to um be um it’s almost a populist

Message actually from the liberal Democrats that they’re going to shake things up that they’re going to not be like the the men two Westminster polit parties um you know after all those parties have been caught up in this big expenses Scandal um so during the campaign um

It’s a it’s a novel campaign in that uh the election sees the introductions of televised TV debates uh and this seems to at least after the first debate seems to help Nick CLE um the um orchestration of the Sky News debate was that um Cameron was standing on one side Brown

Was standing on the other and Nick CAG was standing in the middle and what ended up happening is that uh Nick C in the middle was um was able to project himself as the sensible voice between these two um Waring uh uh extremes I suppose that the labor party and the

Conservative party uh and Gordon Brown during the during the debate said I agree with Nick uh quite a lot of time times and that became a bit of a catchphrase and then we had this bizarre moment where uh in the polls the liberal Democrats shot up in popularity and in

Support and uh this became known as C Mania so very weird moment um perhaps um suggesting a degree of V volatility in this election um as we know over time there’s been a decrease in parter an alignment um and saw increasingly and it’s it’s very evident now but but maybe

These were the early signs of it increasingly voters are willing to move between parties at general elections um now the the the big shift in the polls doesn’t end up having a big effect on the outcome actually um but the volatility of the polling is interesting nonetheless it suggests um an electorate

That are willing to to to give uh new parties a try um the campaign doesn’t go very well for the Labour party um so in the middle of the campaign for example um Gordon Brown makes a big Gaff uh he’s he’s filmed having a conversation with a vter

In Rochdale called Jillian Duffy um it’s about immigration she’s expressing her concern with high levels of immigration um and he thinks he’s dealt with it well um and and actually it probably wouldn’t have been used as a clip had uh what happens next next not happened

Which is that he gets into the car uh the Sky News microphone is still switched on uh and he has a conversation with his advisers where he says oh it was just some bigoted woman uh and this is an election that is um uh not for the

First time but but uh you have 24hour news media during this election and it’s the first election where social media is is in any way a factor really um and so perhaps this wouldn’t have happened in a previous election um but the news cycle created by 24-hour news media and the

Emergence of social media means that this blows up as a news story um and so you you end up with Gordon Brown within 24 hours ending up at the house of Jillian Duffy apologizing to her and trying to put a lid on this story um the other Salient thing in the

Campaign is uh this is pointed out by Gordon Brown in his biography he thinks this is very significant um the Leb party didn’t have very much money going into this campaign and so the conservative party were able to outspend labor by 4 to one during the

Campaign um okay um the media um in the campaign I’ve already talked a little bit about this in terms of the uh the television media um the print media um declining in sign ific but still a significant factor uh well they uh begin to shift uh to the conservative party if

I just get the information um up on my screen um what you what you get happening is that um all of the major newspapers pretty much apart from the Daily Mirror uh um back uh the conservatives um and even the newspapers that typically go with the labor party

Uh like the guardian the guardian back the lib Dems uh the independent sort of uh suggests some sort of messy uh situation where you V tactically for either labor or other the liberal Democrats depending on Whose best players to beat the conservatives um so it’s a bit of a mess

In terms of newspaper endorsements um but the key thing is that labor have lost the support of uh the print media um as we know uh the party was supported by the Sun newspaper very significantly in 1997 and then from um 2001 um Mor of the rightwing press are

Backing the labor party um so the result was um a pretty good result for the conservatives they pick up at 96 seats the Labour party lose 91 um and the labor party reduced to their smallest share of the vote um since 1935 um and this remains their worst

Result in terms of percentage of the vote in recent history it is worse than um the historic defeat they that they had in in 20 2019 in terms of percentage of the vote the difference between those two elections is that labor is still winning in their heartlands particularly

In Scotland so actually the labor party led by uh Scottish leader Gordon Brown do slightly better in Scotland um and saw increase their support north of the Border um but they’re losing seats in England and in Wales largely what’s happening is that the conservative party are winning back seats that they lost in

1997 and they’re making their biggest gains in Southern England um in terms of demographics uh the labor party win um in terms of age they only win amongst the very youngest voters uh the conservatives win amongst every other age group uh with conservative support being highest amongst the very oldest

Age group 65 plus voters um the conser conservative party do reasonably well uh among white voters winning 38% of those voters but only win 16% of black and minority ethnic voters compared to the labor party who win 68% of black and minority ethnic voters um but only 28%

Of white voters uh and Men show a slight preference for the conservative party compared to the labor party um so what conclusions can we draw about this election um well I think the this the sort of dominant explanation of what happened is that the lebor party lost the election rather than the

Conservative party winning it um I think Cameron’s leadership did matter um he’s he has modernized the party he’s moved the party to the center ground and um there’s been some degree of detoxifying that’s gone on um and he does successfully blame labor for some of the

Issues that come about as a result the result of the financial crisis so there was some skillful leadership involved and perhaps without that the conservatives wouldn’t have been able to capitalize on the labor parties Wars um but on the other side of the coin you’ve got a labor party that have

Been in office for 13 years a prime minister in the person of Gordon Brown who’s running out of ideas by this point um he shows good leadership during the financial crisis but in terms of um some of the qualities that Blair had um he lacked them so he was not for example

Very good at speaking to the electorate um Steve Richards uh the political commentator often says that one of Blair’s key strengths was being a political teacher in other words um what he excelled at as a politician was speaking to the electorate uh convincing them of a case that he’d put forward um

Whereas Brown like Corbin um for example felt much more comfortable speaking to people who were already convinced speaking to the labor party for example um and that’s not a very good quality of a political leader you need to be able to speak to the electorate uh and

Convince them of a case so he’s ran out of ideas it’s a long period of of of Labor in charge uh he lacks some of the leadership skills necessary of political leader um and pretty immediately after taking office he confronts crisis uh in particular the financial crisis uh so despite having a relatively

United party actually going into the 2010 election it’s one of the few things going for them um they lose their credibility um and so that’s probably the most important factor that we can sort of pull out of this election um and it results in um another victory in

2015 um the liberal Democrat vote collapses in 2015 uh and despite a small recovery under Ed millerand they lose Scotland uh the conservatives are able to win lib Dem seats in England and so they win a majority um in 2017 with an anti- austerity message under Corbin they make a

Comeback um but of course it’s not enough and Theresa May man manages to remain in office and then of course in 2019 uh the labor party lose some of their core seats which become known as the sort of red wall seats uh when Johnson wins his majority of 80s so

That’s kind of where we are um the 2010 election most significant in bringing about this big period of conservative government uh and it awaits to be seen what will happen in the next election um I will leave it there thank you for joining me don’t forget to like And subscribe