Former US Marine and UN Weapons Inspector in Iraq Scott Ritter joins us at World Pravda discussing the latest events and developments around the world. Stay tuned with us on both our YouTube channel as well as our Telegram channel.
All right so welcome Mr Scott Ritter former US Marine uh and un weapons inspector of the United Nations in Iraq uh he’s joining us today for World Pravda a telegram Channel administered by Yours Truly Mr serbon which is me unfortunately due to personal issues I’m unable to disclose my Identity or my
Face but I hope hope this um hope this is enough and I have prepared some questions for you so welcome onto the show Mr Scott Ritter well thanks for having me okay so I have the first question for you if you could just give us a rundown of the current situation on the
Battlefields of Ukraine like what is your opinion on the development of the special military operation in Ukraine currently we get reports that the Russian army is currently pretty much on the outskirts of chovar and we have also reports of um potentially a new mobilization wave of about 500,000 men you have anything
Anything you can uh disclose any opinions well I think to understand what’s going on on the battlefield today you have to put it in the perspective of the the overall um trajectory of events uh that that collectively we call the special military operation and I think we need to start with that definition
This is this did not start out as a war this was a special military operation where Russia was using military technical means U that’s I guess a you know diplomatic speak for um using military power to um a political result war is an extension of politics by other means um
And the political result that Russia was looking for early on was not the conquest of Ukraine the defeat of Ukraine the acquisition of territory uh it was to create a geopolitical reality that uh was conducive to Russia’s national security interest Russia uh felt that Ukraine being a former Soviet
Republic with deep cultural historical linguistic uh economic uh and indeed political ties with Russia um that that it would be uh detrimental to Russian security interest if Ukraine uh became part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization especially given that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization um Justified its continued existence in the
Aftermath of the end of the Cold War the collapse of the Soviet Union uh its continued existence was predicated on um the notion that Russia posed a threat worthy of not just the continued existence of this political military Alliance but the expansion of this military Alliance to the borders of
Russia uh Russia viewed this as unacceptable and they had been communicating this uh this reality uh to the collective West to Nato to the United States um and to Ukraine since 2008 when uh you know NATO was making noises about invid Ukraine Russia made it clear that they had red lines these
Red lines were captured in a memorandum written by William Burns then the ambassador of the United States to Russia currently the director of the CIA the memorandum was called net means net no means no and he said that Russia under there’s no if hands or butts Russia was um saying that Ukraine will
Never be a part of NATO this is a red line that if it’s crossed it will mean war and William Burns predicted just that that if NATO invites Ukraine that it will inevitably lead to a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine which will cost Ukraine territory at a
Minimum Crimea remember this was written in 2008 prior to 2014 maidon coup so he said you’ll lose Crimea and you’ll lose the donbas uh at a minimum um his predictions have become true um Russia wanted a settlement that would keep Ukraine out of NATO and also where Ukraine uh which was governed since
2014 by um Ukrainian nationalists who um basically were very anti-russian in their uh in in in their domestic posture these are people who came to power in 2014 U with a goal of not only getting Ukraine on a trajectory to align itself with the west but to suppress the um the
Pro-russian uh sentiment that existed in the areas of Ukraine eastern Ukraine primarily uh that were uh dominated by ethnic Russians people who not only spoke Russian but um you know shared the you know ethnic ties with uh with Russia um and this this suppression bordered on or sometimes crossed over into outright
Cultural genocide uh and one could even say physical genocide G uh the violence that these Ukrainian nationalists use to impose their will on on Russia so the Russian military intervention was also to terminate uh this violence that had been ongoing uh since 2014 against the ethnic Russians
Of of the donbas um but you know the the purpose of the military action was to get Ukraine to sit down at a negotiating table and what we know is that less than a week after Russia invaded they succeeded uh the ukrainians did sit down in a series of negotiations held in
Goome belus um three uh negotiations and then they transferred over in in less than a month’s time to Turkey and ended up with something called the Istanbul communic being negotiated between the Russians and the ukrainians uh that would have created the conditions of a lasting peace um one that saw Ukraine
Certify itself as a non-nato neutral entity and one that um you know had the ukrainians agreeing to respect the um the interests of the ethnic Russians um it was too late for Ukraine to say that dombas had to go back to 2014 too much it transpired Russia had already recognized the independent
Nature of of dombas but they had not yet Incorporated dombas the two dkan lugans into Russia so Russia was willing to have discussions with the ukrainians about a uh about referendum uh so that the people of dombas could decide which way they wanted to go it was not a
Forego conclusion and Russia was also willing to have discussions with Ukraine about while Russia wasn’t willing to give up Crimea to talk about uh Ukrainian interests in Crimea Russia was willing to discuss these things um and Russia was willing to withdraw from all the territory that they had occupied
Around Kiev in the Sumi districts koson zapara and return these to Ukrainian Sovereign control um and so the the the scope and scale of Russia’s military operation was built around this political objective and everybody needs to understand that Russia went in woefully undermanned if their goal was
To conquer Ukraine this was supposed to be by design a short-term military operation to achieve very specific uh political objectives that would hopefully be achieved in a reasonable time period weeks if not months and Russia succeeded in doing this they had the Istanbul communic it was ready to be signed uh Russia was
Withdrawing troops from KB from Sumi from genev um and when they were preparing to withdraw troops from kov Kon zapia um as part of their you living up to their agreement but the collective West Great Britain NATO the United States they saw Russia’s uh gestures of
Um of good faith not as a signs of Russia being willing to you know abide by commitments made but as a sign of Russian weakness and they have a overarching strategic objective of defeating Russia uh and when I say defeating Russia it’s not that they plan on occupying Russia defeating the
Russian army on the battlefield uh they want to defeat Russia economically through economic sanctions and they want to defeat Russia politically by creating the conditions inside Russia cond do uve to domestic unrest that could lead to what the West calls a Moscow maidon moment where you would have the citizens of Russia the
Citizens of Moscow flooding uh the squares in Moscow demanding that Vladimir Putin step aside sort of repeating what happened in February 2014 when um american-backed uh Ukrainian nationalists demanded the ouster of then uh Ukrainian president Victor yanukovich um and so this was the objective and so the United States and NATO began to
Flood Ukraine with um money and Military assistance designed to prolong this conflict knowing that Russia had stepped off with an inadequate Force they they were hoping that Russia would overreact go into a fullscale mobilization an immediate transition into defense uh into wartime defense production that would not only a Russian economy
Straining under the weight of econ IC sanctions but also break the spirit of a Russian people uh who would view the conflict in Ukraine as unwinable and uh blame Vladimir Putin for getting them involved in a situation where they were suffering economically at home um but the Russians you know didn’t overreact
The they they everything is done by a phase they they they realized that the first phase had not succeeded although a lot of people don’t realize that the Russians continue to negotiate in good Faith with the ukrainians up through junee even though the ukrainians walked away from the agreement uh under the
Pressure of um Boris Johnson then British prime minister Ukraine continued to participate in these elections now we know through budanov the head of Ukrainian intelligence that they did this in bad faith that they were leading the Russians to believe that there was still a chance for these negotiations to
Work but what they wanted is for the Russians to further weaken themselves through these good faith efforts of withdrawing troops not only from around KV chvs but also in the carco region where the Russians had in many places reduced their troop concentration by 50% with drawing troops back into Russia the
Ukrainians took advantage of this Russia did refocus their effort on simply clearing Ukrainian forces out of the dbass and securing the um the land bridge between Crimea and the dobass but uh you know Russia was still hoping that the ukrainians would come to the table um instead Ukraine uh rebuilt their military using
NATO money NATO equipment um in many cases NATO mercenaries and they launched a very effective counter offensive in the uh fall of 2022 uh which succeeded in pushing the the Russians out of uh much of the carve area and U pushing the Russians out of the right Bank of of
Keron um and Russia then had to go into another phase another adjustment and this adjustment required them to m mobiz 300,000 forces and to begin the transition to uh if not war time warik military production um but this takes time it it takes months to mobilize and
Train soldiers properly and to make this transition so they went into a third phase of um what we call a frozen conflict um many people in the west viewed this as a sign of Russian weakness that Russia didn’t have the strength to respond um and it led to I
Think a false sense of um of strength on the part of the ukrainians um and the West who believe that if Ukraine could be reinforced even further they could carry out a summer counter offensive in 2023 that would break the spirit of the Russian army and generate the kind of domestic unrest
That could lead to the removal of Vladimir Putin from power and this of course was the Infamous summer offensive um we we saw what happened in the fields of zapari outside the village of robotino uh we saw what happened elsewhere in and around bakut um a catastrophic failure
For the ukrainians um the Russians had prepared for this counter offensive and they succeeded in defeating this counter offensive and now Russia was has a decision or made a decision on what the next phase would be and the next phase was predicated on what the Ukrainian wanted were the ukrainians willing to
Accept reality on the battlefield that they weren’t going to win they weren’t going to evict the Russians um that Russia had absorbed these four territories through referendum in September uh 2022 and this was irreversible would Ukraine be willing to accept the reality uh as existed territorially and politically that
Ukraine would have to U agree to be neutral and the answer was no under pressure from the West who continued to believe that Russia was not capable of prevailing in this conflict um they they wanted to extend this conflict into a forever conflict one that would wear the
Russians down over time I don’t think Russia wants to play that game so Russia made the decision um that they will now seek the Strategic defeat of Ukraine not just demilitarization denazification which were always objectives but the Strategic defeat of Ukraine and the collective West which is the phase that
We’re currently in where the Russians are building up their power they are grinding down the ukrainians um the the the goal is um driven not by a calendar but by objectives um they you know the Russians are achieving um you know measured results on the battlefield consistent advances uh that also result
In the destruction of Ukrainian Manpower and equipment that can’t be replaced ukrainians are getting weaker the Russians are getting stronger um a long time ago I said that I thought after the successful mobilization of 300,000 reservists and the absorption of over 450,000 volunteers that the Russians had
Changed the the ma the military math equation away from one that was um not favorable to them the initial 200 plus thousand troops that had been involved to one where they now were in a position with close to 600 700,000 troops that that they could uh not only retake uh
The dbas but also expand if necessary into caco or towards Odessa but beyond that the military power that Russia had although considerable wasn’t capable of doing much more besides securing the NEPA River Line um we now see Russia engaged in a new wave of mobilization um much of
It I believe uh based not on um you know mobilization of reservists but mobilization of volunteers the the Russian nation has become gripped with a sense of patriotism and we see Russians volunteering to serve in this conflict in very large numbers and so much of this mobilization can be done through
Reserves we see for instance Russia has yet to secure the Neer River Line and yet Russia is creating a flotilla Neer River flotilla in anticipation of this this flotilla is backed not just by ships but by U military units that are attached to it and Russia is creating
Two new combined arms armies which you would need if Russia is going to expand offensive operations Beyond the Neer River Line for instance into Odessa securing a land bridge with transistor region through car toward sui uh securing nepos MV um and this seems to be the direction that Russia’s going Russia is has
Expanded its um air operations um striking leadership targets striking critical infrastructure targets it appears to be an effort to destroy Ukraine’s ability to continue to function economically and as a society so Russia is seeking not only the military collapse of Ukraine but the social political and economic collapse and that’s where we are
Today yeah it seems to me like the United States after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 1992 the dissolution that is to say the the elites running the United States sort of thought that at the time there were only really two countries on the Eurasia landmass that could ever pose a
Real threat the first and obvious choice is uh obviously China and the second is the Russian Federation and uh in that regard I guess they were um however you want to call them neocons the American deep state so on and so forth have been running this um this scheme of politics where they
They were gradually going to push NATO and the EU which I mean let’s be Frank EU and NATO are the the two gloves of the you know Euro Atlantic Empire the United States they sort of wanted to in my opinion present the Russians with a f compete like a done deal and the
Russians were essentially told to stuff it accept it you know the Baltic states Poland czechia Hungary Slovakia and so on and so forth and then of course you have the um the Bucharest Summit April 2008 they were going to bring in um Georgia and Ukraine into NATO obviously
This was a red line for the Russians And in regards to the the conflict I don’t think the United States military or leadership political leadership were ever really ready to wage a real kind of land war against the Russians so what they actually sought to do was Engage
The Russians and the ukrainians against each other initiate a coup in Ukraine get the wrong kind of people in power in Ukraine people that the Russians find um how can I say this unacceptable people who would not accept any kind of deal with the Russians who impose a sort of
Unitary Ukrainian State devoid of any Russian influence and so forth but I guess this eventually this turned out into a complete disaster not only has the war the war effort of Ukraine failed with a lack of weapons to say nothing of the Manpower which Ukraine has lost I don’t I don’t
I don’t see how Ukraine can can bring any more men to the battlefield but not only that but the sanctions it appears have completely failed and the sanctions have essentially cut off Russia from the Swift system from the Western banking systems from the United States and so forth and
Everything that is related to the EU and now what they’ve actually done is they’ve brought Russia closer to China and intertwined their economies I mean China is and forgive me for speaking so long I’m trying to reach a point here a conclusion okay basically Russia is a resource
Exporter it’s a giant country it’s essentially bigger than Pluto and China is um manufactures Goods with its industry it needs resources who has the resources Russia has the resources and this is just like they they they ended up doing in my opinion the exact opposite of what they sought
Out to achieve so what we now have is I guess the Russian military industrial complex Reawakening was already pretty large before the war now the Russians are you know well not they’ve essentially cleaned the cleared the dust out of all these Soviet ex Soviet factories which have been dormant for 30
40 years and they’re turning out weapons day and night day and night day and night and I guess the we’ve reached the point almost a Breaking Point a watershed moment as Americans would say in in so far as the war in Ukraine is is is is concerned now
I wanted to ask you what is your opinion on the summer offensive for example we’ve been talking about this for some time on various channels you’ve been talking about it since 2022 I’ve been following you on YouTube for quite a few quite a few years now almost two years
Do you think there is a reasonable chance that the Russians will initiate a summer offensive this summer summer 2024 um so what is the probability of that happening where do you think the Russians might end up with whether it’s theer River or somewhere beyond and what is the likelihood in your opinion since
You are um a military man in your own regard you served within Western Germany as far as I’m aware during the Cold War um what is the probability of a NATO slash um you know Coalition of the Willing which almost implies by rule that everybody else in NATO is you know
The Coalition of the unwilling um for example what is the probability of France as macron says of of France intervening in the conflict I I think we we start by pointing out that um you know amateurs talk tactics professionals talk Logistics that’s just an old saying that
Is is very accurate um so we we can look at what Russia’s doing logistically and try and project what Russia intends to do operationally logistically Russia’s milit industry um is being fully funded uh for expansive production for the next several years um I think through 2027 in
Some cases um we also see that logistically Russia is building as I mentioned earlier two new combined arms armies plus a Neer River flotilla plus supporting units related to that um this means that Russia is is is preparing to carry out offensive operations that will at a minimum secure the Nea River Line
For Russia and more than likely uh go on let’s let’s examine what are the the you know the top threats are to Russia today um from from Ukraine uh the biggest threat comes out of Odessa region the Black Sea where Ukraine continues to project power in a
Way that um hazards Crimea hazards the Black Sea Fleet Russia needs to eliminate this threat um and that can only be eliminated when Russia seizes uh the the city of Odessa and the Black Sea Coast that Ukraine loses access to the Sea we also see a peripheral threat
Emerging from uh the U pro-russian Enclave in transia where we see mdova Romania Ukraine all making noise about uh potential military um engagement there um Russia has said that an attack against Transit Syria is an attack against Russia will be treated as such but rather than leaving this uh this
Problem there uh to be exploited by Russia’s enemies uh Russia will resolve this problem by securing a land bridge to transia and incorporating that region into Russia so I see that that is definitely uh a major axis of um of advance for the Russians this summer soon um
I I also see Russia becoming increasingly frustrated with um Ukrainian military incursions and Strikes against belgrad and kers uh so I see Russia um needing to secure that border region as well um and in order to do that I think Russia will uh in order to uh you know simplify the military
Pitcher will secure kov um as well and so these are the two principal axes of advance that I see in addition to continuing the pressure to uh drive to the Nea River Line I think the neeper river line is the objective of the current phase of operations and then
Which are happening now um you if you listen to the West if you you know read the tea leaves uh you know we are looking at the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian Army and their ability to maintain a cohesive defense uh along the current line and given their U very dire
Manpower straight they will have no choice but to withdraw to the Neer River Line so that they can redistribute forces to the Odessa front and to the um to the kov sui front um and so that is happening as we speak um but once this happens this summer as these new forces
That Russia is preparing come online I think you’re going to see Russia carrying out um you know offensive operations in the Odessa uh sector and in the COV sui sector designed to as I said secure uh the land bridge with transia and remove uh the threat that is
Posed to Crimea by Ukraine’s presence on the Black Sea and to eliminate the threat to belgrad and kers by creating a cordone sanit a buffer zone so to speak along the border between Russia and Ukraine there and that that means cleaning up the um the COV region so
That you have um shortened you know military lines uh you know the longer your your line of contact the more troops you need so Russia will be seeking to uh to shorten their line they’ll take advantage of the Neer River also by putting in this Neer River
Flotilla um that will secure the river freeing up tremendous numbers of Russian forces that can be reallocated North and South um I think Russia’s hoping that this will lead to the political collapse of the zalinski regime and um that the ukrainians will will sue for peace on terms dictated by Russia uh and
Therefore Russia will not um have to carry out followon military operations but Russia will be prepared to if uh if this collapse doesn’t occur then you know the the the next step is to um you know isolate Kiev and um secure the um the border with Poland to
Terminate uh any ability of NATO to continue to supply and to reduce the temptation of NATO to send in um you know expeditionary forces because that’s that’s the only thing that’s left that Russia really needs to worry about they really don’t need to worry about it because again Logistics let’s talk about
The French for a second uh the French have made noise mcon speaks of there not being any red lines but there are red lines not necessarily established by Russia but established by French reality France currently maintains a reinforced Battalion force in Romania part of um you know operation Eagle
Um if the you know when we’re talking about a coalition of the of the willing as you rightly pointed out that means there’s a coalition of the unwilling that means that any forces that get sent into Ukraine will not be NATO forces they will be forces of individual
Nations operating uh outside of the protective umbrella of NATO um the the conflict you know I I I I’ll go back in time uh to the early 2023 with h when General cavoli the uh commander of NATO forces and US forces in Europe um he spoke I believe at a um
A Swedish Defense Forum and um at that time he said that the uh that NATO was had not imagined the scope and scale of the violence that’s taking place in Ukraine and that’s an important statement to make because understand that uh peacetime militaries um train for operational contingencies linked to
Operational plans that are derived from the imagination of a threat so you have planners who say what would a deployment to you know Romania look like in the face of a Russian threat what would a conflict with Russia look like how do we anticipate our forces to behave in a
Contrast to Russian forces what sustainability factors come into play what do we need to have in terms of the uh initial Echelon of forces what kind of ammunition and fuel we have follow on echelons need to be identified where they come in so a plan is made based
Upon what we anticipate the war to look like and how we expect it to unfold so when kabi says that what’s happening in Ukraine was unimaginable what he’s saying is that NATO doesn’t have a plan to deal with the reality of the level of violence and this is a level of violence
That will eat up a western style Brigade every three days there aren’t too many brigades in NATO capable of deploying um NATO has allowed itself to atrophy over the you know course of several decades of um reag ination of what the NATO uh mission is that stopped being being able to wage
Large scale ground combat in Europe that was the NATO that I was familiar with in the 1980s that was singularly focused on this instead it became a um a a political military force designed to use um the Civil military relationship as a way of absorbing Eastern Europe so they were focused more
On you know questions of um democracy and the relationship of the military with democracy of uh of of of making uh economic and political and judicial changes in Europe a very political um focus as well as on how to project this U this political military model um into
The periphery of NATO we saw NATO expanding into North Africa uh starting to create Partnerships there we saw NATO talking about expanding into the Middle East trying to create Partnerships there um and then we saw NATO basically becoming a tool of um you know American National Security and foreign policy
NATO allowing itself to be drawn into the Afghanistan conflict although the relationship between Afghanistan and the and the North Atlantic is non-existent but NATO instead found itself engaged in things that was never considered to be possible during the time of um of the Cold War NATO was involved in offensive
Nation uh building regime change operations in Libya NATO was involved in a war in Europe by attacking uh Serbia and um you know helping create the uh the the the entity of Kosovo these are these are operations that NATO as a defensive military Alliance could never have considered during the time of the
Cold War but were being actively acted out now but the the milit milary necessary for these operations uh is not the same military that was needed in the 1980s first of all when the Soviet Union collapsed everybody the United States NATO everybody was looking for what they call the peace dividend so they’re
Looking to downsize to restructure their military away from structures necessary to um sustain large scale ground combat into structures more conducive for um expeditionary operations outside of of Europe or within Europe in small small modular Brigade siiz deployments such as what we saw in Kosovo um and when you when you restructure
Like this everything gets restructured um to include you know the basics recruiting um the Manpower requirements are different U the equipment is different so you you redefine your relationship with your respective military-industrial complexes um politically the financial aspect what you expect of your military um how you
Fund your military all of this changed and then it was further Complicated by America’s singular focus on the global war on terrorism where we just forgot about largescale ground combat um to give you an example in Europe we withdrew all of our tanks all of our
Tanks even the ones that we had in uh in in in storage uh for you know rapid reinforcement we withdrew them all we didn’t have any tanks left in Europe because we never envisioned a situation where we would need tanks in Europe um we stopped organizing for largescale ground conflict instead we were
Singularly focused on low intensity conflict counterinsurgency conflicts in Afghanistan Iraq Syria and elsewhere uh and every aspect of how America organized for war was geared on that uh and suddenly we found when the global war on terrorism ended um that we were not capable of doing anything else and
Um and we are still in a transition period where we’re trying to reorient our military to car be able to carry out um military operations against near peer and peer level opponents like Russia like China um and we’re not prepared to do that today and so this is the reality
That we’re in France is the same way the French military today is a shadow of what it used to be all militaries are I mean there was a time during the Cold War when I was uh in the Marine Corps that the British maintained 100,000 men
Uh in in German called the British Army on the Ry today the German military or the British military is 72,000 strong and shrinking down to perhaps 56,000 in a couple days you could put the entire British Army in U in a large soccer stadium and have 20,000 unsold seats I
Mean that’s just the reality of how small the British army the German Army is no longer capable of deploying division sized elements into the field they struggled to deploy a reinforced Battalion to uh to Lithuania as part of the NATO battle groups they struggle to try to expand that to a brigade siiz
Force um and the French are the same way they they shifted their military Focus away from what they call high-intensity Warfare to expeditionary Warfare where they were supporting deployments into Africa um into the Middle East but not prepared to fight on the ground in Europe and now macron is trying to take
This this this military and say that he’s going to project power into Ukraine as a way of um trying to stop this the inevitability of a Russian military Victory he has this reinforced Battalion in Romania um they were talking about reinforcing this to a reinforced Brigade
Uh sometime in 2025 and so the French were beginning a process that takes about two years from envisioning uh to executing and they were going to try and get a brigade deployed into Romania but now they’re talking about ex you know basically shortening the time frame accelerating the process so that it
Could be done sometime this year logistically it’s extraordinarily difficult to do this but even if you get the Brigade into Romania and you build the logistics necessary to support that Brigade in Romania now to project that power in Ukraine is a whole level of difficulty that France is incapable of
Achieving they don’t have the logistics framework uh to do this um and Ukraine doesn’t have the ability to absorb um a French Brigade and sustain it and continue doing what they’re doing so this is a this is an operation it’s far too complex for the French but the other
Thing is 2,000 men means nothing means nothing has no meaning on the battle um we’re talking about a situation today where the Ukrainian are losing over a thousand men a day and so the French to deploy 2,000 men into this mix um basically buys Ukraine two days and then
The French are gone um what do the French do when they lose 2,000 men do they reinforce to 12,000 does some talk about creating a a division sized Force um that would deploy but again logistically impossible to do they don’t have the troops ready equipped trained
They don’t have the L ability to push these forces into uh in into Romania let alone push them into Ukraine and sustain them uh but then that’s you know 12 days of you bought the ukrainians 12 days and now all the French troops are dead there’s talk that the Fran will be you
Know France takes a step that other nations will follow the Coalition of the Willing the Baltic states will will respond but the Baltic states have no meaningful expeditionary capability they might be able to provide a reinforced company uh of troops that have historically trained with the French and
Are familiar with French Opera French operational procedures deploy them but they’ll be dead in a day um the polls are talking about joining in I think you know macron is envisioning a 60,000 strong force that will somehow be allowed to um you know situate itself inside Ukraine and at that point in time
Macron would turn to Nato and say we want to transform this Force into a NATO force by citing article four uh that we have a you know a collective National Security interest in in securing Western Ukraine from the Russians and then we bring in air power provide a you know
No-fly zone Etc it’s unrealistic thinking they’ll never get to 60,000 they’ll all die beforehand and Russia will never allow a noly Zone but what this is if they push this issue we now create a condition where Russia and NATO will be meaningfully engaged in high-intensity Conflict Russia
Will embarrass NATO at that point and then the question is can NATO take the embarrassment accept the defeat or will NATO seek to then transition this conflict into one where they start launching retaliatory strikes into the Russian strategic depth and this is where it gets dangerous because for
Instance if they launch strikes against the Russian base at Engles where their strategic uh air power is located that Strategic Air power is also part of the Russian strategic nuclear deterrent Force if they start striking command and control centers around Moscow those command and control centers are a critical element of Russia’s strategic
Nuclear deterrence and Russia has said that if conventional power is applied in a way that seeks to degrade diminish or eliminate Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent then Russia will use nuclear power in response and now we’re talking about a general nuclear conflict and everybody’s dead so this is the danger
Of the French um the French initiative and um I’m hopeful that one French generals will be telling mcon what they should be telling them which is this is an unsustainable initiative on your part uh that will only lead to the defeat of France strategic defeat of France and I
Hope the United States is also starting to tell the French that we won’t allow you to drag us into a larger conflict that can end with the nuclear exchange and so I’m hopeful that NATO will not act on the um the fantasy of Emmanuel macron because it would only lead to a disaster
For NATO a defeat of NATO and potentially a nuclear conflict no no power in Europe today can match the Russian uh military doesn’t mean the Russians are perfect they are capable of making mistakes it doesn’t mean that the Russians uh aren’t suffering casualties they are suffering um considerable
Casualties War as hell uh but Russia has mastered the art of um high-intensity conflict of large scale ground Combat on a European theater and more importantly than the tactics operations and strategic thinking of the Russian general staff and the Russian Armed Forces is the ability of Russia to sustain this conflict logistically
Economically and politically Russia has brought all the pieces necessary for this together um and I think the glue that holds it together is the fact that uh President Vladimir Putin received an overwhelming mandate for uh continued governance over the course of six years the Russian people the Russian Nation
Are behind him and um and so too is the is the Russian military so I I do believe that you’re going to see significant um changes let me let me finish with this I had a conversation with h with Opti Alid donov who is a a chin um officer in the Russian national
Guard he’s a general um he was just Commander I believe of a core in uh in lugansk uh but he was pulled off the front lines sometime in February and sent to or January and sent to the Russian general staff Academy where he was uh two things one to receive
Specific training on um the Russian style of warfare that would be conducive to um greater responsibilities and two to impart the considerable knowledge that he had um acquired about the realities on the battlefield to other Russian generals of similar rank um he has said that he anticipates that
There will be major changes in the um Battlefield Reality by May and I think when he’s talking about that we’re talking about the ukrainians withdrawing to the deeper River Line and that appears to be the direction that we’re heading but he also said that Russia won’t stop there that he sees strategic
Changes occurring by the end of summer um and I think that these are the additional axes of advance that uh that I’ve described and so I think my assessment aligns with the thinking of um somebody who is knowledgeable of uh Russia’s strategic plans and and this isn’t me giving away a confidential
Conversation uh op the aladon of repeated this um in a in an interview given to Russian media so I I’m not sharing something out of school I’m simply repeating uh something that a Russian general has already um said and in the open okay so yeah it seems certainly looking at
The front lines looking at Russia in the special military operation in Ukraine that pretty much out of all the countries of NATO certainly in Eurasia maybe even the world the the army with the most amount of experience and combat ready troops right now seems to be Russia I mean I don’t I
Don’t rightly know what um what macron or any other European leader would would would even try to attempt in Ukraine by putting you know their their troops in in Ukraine aside from the fact that they would probably this this Coalition of the Willing which almost by definition includes these Baltic uh these three
Baltic statelets if I can call them that Estonia ltia Lithuania which I don’t know if they combined have 4 million people Poland almost as a rule always Romania seems kind of hesitant Now France is all always you know um at least for the Baltic states Poland is a
Good train to catch and if it’s a Western Country like France um it’s it’s even it’s even better but it seems like the elites the political Elites um in the West in NATO especially are pretty much in panic mode they’re observing what what has been happening over the past two years especially over
The course from from you know what June 4th was it when when the ukrainians last year attempted started their offensive into robotino this obviously went nowhere they suffered terrible casualties the West has been observing this they’ve been they they’re just watching this entire thing collapse it’s falling into
Pieces like a like um like a Lego um Lego piece and forgive my language but it’s just it’s I just observing this and it it’s so much Bloodshed what I think this is what what what these people are attempting to do is they’re at odds the political leadership of NATO of France Germany
Poland and so on and so forth almost seems at odds with the military you know establishment and you know the military seems to be telling them look this is this is not going to work right they’re trying to you know present to the Russians a new you know feta comp maybe
Fortify Western Ukraine on the west side of the dener you know divided on North Korean South Korean lines the Russians are not you know South Korea they’re not North Korea they’re not going to accept this they’re nuclear power I mean I don’t think n macron is um macron is a
Person who talks a lot but I don’t I don’t I don’t even I don’t think he’s crazy enough to put French troops into Odessa or Kiev I think it will be a disaster personally um I mean one of the one of the problems that we’re we’re facing
Here is is that um you know when I when I was uh when I joined the Marine Corp we were U you know it was the Cold War and the Soviet Union was the was the enemy um and we very much viewed them as the enemy but you know we also operated
Under the notion that you needed to know your enemy as you knew yourself and and and what I’m trying to get at is that you know today we we see the West Collective West infected with uh russophobia this this fear and hatred of Russia and it’s not conducive to
Understanding the reality of Russia back in the um 70s and 80s um even though the Soviet Union was our enemy we studied the Soviet Union um I I I was a Russian history major in college uh focused on Russian military history I took the language imperfectly anybody’s heard me
Speak Russian understands that I don’t claim to be fluent in the language but I I I studied the language so that I could uh read Russian military texts so I could read Russian literature I read Russian literature to try and understand the Russian soul to understand the
Russian people who they were you know who are these people that were preparing to go to war with uh what do they think like uh what drives them what what motivates them um to study the economy of the Soviet Union to see what makes it tick um we were in many ways russophiles
You fell in love with your enemy not meaning that you wanted to hug them but you respected them I respected the Soviets I respect respected the Soviet military I respected the Soviet people I can’t say I had perfect knowledge and understanding of them but I was seeking
Uh to learn more about them so that I could accurately assess um the situation and maybe even predict what they might be doing in a certain situation I was surrounded I was a junior officer at the time um I was actually brought in because of my my my background to
Participate in um inspections of the Soviet the former Soviet Union as part of the intermediate nuclear forces treaty which was signed by Reagan and gorbachov in December of 1987 I was the first inspector on the ground in the former Soviet Union and sent there in
The middle of June um 1988 uh as part of an advanced party to a Soviet missile Factory in votkinsk um on July 1 the treaty came in force and while inspectors were flying from Germany into Russia I was already there so um you’re looking at the the first inspector on
The ground uh in in the in the Soviet Union um but that experience allowed me to see firsthand about the you know the things that I only U studied from afar I got to meet Russians I got to meet Soviet Authority meet the Russian military meet the the the Soviet defense industry to
Live amongst them to learn about them and um what I’m trying to get at is I was surrounded by people like me who were more senior I had Colonels who spent their you know these are guys who you know all combat veterans from Vietnam who then made a decision to
Transition to what they call foreign area officer with a Soviet specialty because they were committed cold Warriors the Soviet Union was the enemy but these are guys who in order to become this had to take formal language become fluent in the Russian language and then go on and get a uh Advanced
Degree in uh topics related to Russia then they went to this unique facility called the United States Army Russia Institute in garish Germany where they spent one to two years in an immersive environment where they had a they had a village set up where which was populated by Russian immigrates where they only
Spoke Russian where they did everything in the Russian language using Russian cultures as if you were in Russia so that you learn to think like the Russians and then these guys went on to do jobs in the embassy is ades they were at the military liaison mission in um in
East Germany they did uh they they advised commanders and these were expert advisers and the state department was the same way the ambass assador to the Soviet Union in the final years was Jack Matlock Jack Matlock is one of the most respected sovietologists he’s a man who spoke the Russian language fluently who
Appreciated Russian culture who loved the Russian people he loved the Russian ways but he was the American ambassador and he represented you know the United States in accordance with the policies that are being directed by you know the president by the state department but these were policies that were shaped by
People who knew Russia knew the Soviet Union study them all of this went away when the Soviet Union collapsed overnight uh it’s like a a new thinking came in where they said we don’t want to be have our minds polluted by people who are founded in the back you know in in
In in the past that they said Russia’s is New Frontier we don’t want Russia experts we don’t want experts on you know the Russian Soul we want Russian EXP ERS we want a new generation of people who can come in and not be in love with Russia but be willing to you
Know take over Russia to exploit them this is where you get people like Michael McFall you know who went on to become an ambassador people like Fiona Hill uh people like angist stent these are people who aren’t experts in Russia these are people who are experts in how America sought to exploit Russia
Politically economically the decade of the 1990s redefined a whole new generation of so-called Russia experts but their expertise was not trying to live in peace and harmony with an equal power but how to exploit politically economically a defeated power our goal was to keep Russia down keep them down
Permanently to even rip them apart um but you know and we almost succeeded I mean any Russian who lived through the decade of the 90s understands what a catastrophe it was for Russia one of the worst things that’s happened to Russia since the end of the second world war
And in some cases even worse you know when you were talk about the actual Damage Done To Russia in terms of demographics economics Etc um in 1999 the end of 1999 uh Boris yelton his last Act was to appoint Vladimir Putin to be his replacement and Vladimir Putin was a
Man who was not willing to become yelton 2.0 that was the goal of the United States all of the real Russia experts people like I mean I’d like to put myself in their category myself Jack Matlock Etc were saying that you know listen to Putin Putin is talking about
What’s in the best interest of Russia but we were never cared what’s in the best interest of Russia we were cared what’s how we could exploit Russia to the best interest of the United States and NATO and expansive NATO decided to bring Russia down and so we began this
Cycle of um of conflict that’s well known I mean we we we see the United States trying to bring Russia down we see uh Vladimir Putin trying to build Russia up and it you know it led to a series of clashes that are well there’s well defined points in this 2005 speech
That Vladimir Putin gave to the Russian Federal assembly where he said uh you know he said that U that the the collapse of the former Soviet Union was one of the greatest catastrophes in modern history and everybody stopped there and said that means Vladimir Putin is seeking to rebuild the Soviet Union
But see somebody who truly studies Russia would say but what he said next is the most important because overnight tens of millions of Russians became homeless and that he as the Russian president was responsible for the Russian na nation and the Russian nation was greater than just the borders of the
Federation but Incorporated people with shared cultural values history language Traditions religion all of this nobody listened to that because we no longer had Russian experts we had people who were expert on exploiting Russia and Putin had become an impediment to the continued exploitation and then we see
200 S when he speaks at the mun security conference and what he said there U amazingly saying that Russia will not tolerate this we see the Russian responses after the expansion of NATO in 2008 we see Putin you know speaking about the absorption of Crimea we sees
Putin speaking about um the need to uh build nuclear uh redefine Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrance in the face of U America’s withdrawal from treaties the anti-ballistic missile treaty the intermediate nuclear forces treaty and we see the statements made by Vladimir Putin justifying the special military operation all of these statements were
Listened to by people who provide advice to US presidents to French presidents to British prime ministers but these aren’t Russian experts the people giving advice to the leadership today are people who seek to exploit Russia to to keep Russia down but they’re not experts in Russia therefore everything they see in Russia
Is misconstrued misunderstood misinterpreted and so they actually believed that they could impose sanctions on Russia and do harm any expert in Russia and I count myself in this I I predicted this before the sanctions were imposed in papers that were written in November December of 2021 that if we sanction Russia it will
Backfire because we don’t understand the economic linkage that’s taking place and we don’t have a plan B but what we will be doing for Russia you know one of the one of the enduring problems that Vladimir Putin faced as the President of Russia is what to do about the oligarch
Class you know he inherited from Boris yelton you know Russia’s not a dictatorship he can’t just snap his finger and make them go away um you know because there would be dire Economic Consequences he had to learn to work with them to adapt and over time but he
Always ran into this problem of there there being about 20 to 30% of the r of Russian society that was thoroughly IM mesed with the west and you couldn’t divorce the two it was there the West was hanging around like this weight around Russia’s neck and you couldn’t
Divorce it because that would lead to you know a political catastrophe Vladimir Putin didn’t win elections prior to uh to this recent one by you know he he tend to win you know 58% 53% you know maybe 61% um but if you create the conditions where you lose 30% of the electorate the
Pro Western electorate by a precipitous divorce with the West Vladimir Putin could be voted out of office and he’s smart enough to know that you can’t do that so he tolerated this linkage to the West because he had no choice it was the West that created the conditions of
Divorce and one of the things that we did that the nobody in the west understands is that we freed him from the oligarch class we liberated Vladimir Putin we liberated Russia and that’s one of the reasons they’ve been able to do this tremendous economic turnaround because now he can redirect uh economic
You know Focus Etc in ways that he couldn’t when the oligarchs are there uh putting their demands on him now he can do that Russia’s reinvesting in Russia Russia’s able to focus on things that are best for Russia not best for Western interests and um we’re seeing a total
You know revitalization of of Russia as they pivot away from the West towards China towards India towards the global South Russian experts saw this they could forecast it all the people advising um macron advising Biden advising whoever the prime minister of the day is in uh in Great Britain
Advising Schulz these aren’t real Russian experts these are people who uh I call Putin Whisperers who have uh spent their entire lives focused on one man and one man only Vladimir Putin misrepresenting his history misrepresenting his goals his objectives and not understanding Russia in the process and as a result they give advice
That are based upon things that are never going to happen such as a Moscow maidon there’s no real Russian expert today who believes that a Moscow maidon could happen it’s just impossible and yet they continue to believe that if they do X increase sanctions if they do
Y you know uh you know increase the cost of war that they will get you know z a collapse of Russia they’re misrepresenting this they’re totally off Bas and now you know the proof is in the pudding you know it’s all come to a head and there’s a realization now across the
Collective West that they got it wrong and now they’re realizing the consequences of getting it wrong which is they are losing on every single front the economic front the Diplomatic front Russia is more popular today in the world than at any other time they’re their diplomats are securing tremendous
Diplomatic victories in Africa in the global South Russia is a loved Nation not a feared Nation not a hated Nation economically Russia’s very strong in terms of domestic politics Russia’s never been stronger and as you pointed out militarily there is no Nation on the earth that can wage war on a scope and
Scale that Russia does with the expertise that Russia brings to the table and it’s not just about the weapons it’s not just about the combat experience in terms of tactics operations uh and and strategic thinking it’s the logistics of War Russia has mastered the logistics of War No Other
Nation can do what Russia is doing because War isn’t just about winning that first battle on the battlefield if you win that first battle but lose too many casualties or use up all your ammunition that Second Battle you’ll be defeated and you lose the war Russia’s about winning the war and there’s no
Other Nation on the Earth today that has the combination of factors because again I remind it war is an extension of politics by other means so you can’t view as a military in isolation it has to be backed up by a larger system in the case of the Russian military it’s
Backed up by a economic system a political system uh that is United stronger today than it has ever been in modern history and that’s now linked to this military system that is Frankly Speaking undefeatable yes it certainly seems like the Russians are on the March and it’s
Frankly thanks to the United States and NATO as a whole and their policies towards Russia know you know it almost seems like there was an attempt at bulcan isation of Russia through sanctions through you know working with oligarchs pressure on the battlefield and so on a Russian Moscow maidan was supposed to in
Their minds at least bring down Russia tear it apart disillusion the military disillusion the people break it up into constituent republics and make sure it never ever rises again and essentially use it as a giant you know resource farm for extraction for European countries and the United States but I wanted to go
Back into like the war itself how how much time do you think Ukraine in your estimation has how much time until Ukraine begins to collapse I mean uh Colonel Douglas McGregor I’ve also frequented his shows and interviews on YouTube he is of the opinion and he constantly talks about this quote he
Says things go on until they can’t now I’m quoting him quoting someone else I can’t remember who who exactly it was that said this but in your opinion is this going to reach a breaking point is this going to reach a like Germany 1918 moment where you know
The front line is there things go on they go on and go on and go on and then suddenly just one day everything just collapses well that’s what collapse is um it’s it’s where you know you you you maintain you know when when we speak of
The military um you know it’s a system so you have troops at the front line who are doing their job uh but they have to be backed by um you know supporting fires Logistics Communications intelligence and all that has to be backed up by command staffs that are linked to political decision making
Centers that are linked to economic centers of gravity political centers of gravity linked to a nation itself and in order to sustain cohesive Presence at the front line all this other stuff has to be working um and if you are a professional military in in a nation
You’ve built in a certain amount of resilience you understand that there will be losses not just on the front line but throughout the rear so if a decision- making Center is taken out you have a plan B it transitions to this one if that’s taken out you have a plan C um
And that’s how you can survive in a war where casualties are heavy and inevitable um you can go through you you can maintain a presence at the front and still be a Tred in the rear and it looks like you have a system that’s working but anybody who’s been in the rear area
Knows what happens when Communications get cut you now have to uh you have to take resources and reestablish Communications that diminishes resources available um Logistics are are are are cut down you lose fuel you have to take resources acquire new fuel that diminishes your resources and at some
Point in time you become resource restrained you don’t have any more resources so as emergencies occur you have to in order to solve that emergency you have to prioritize functionality and start shutting down functionality divert resources to uh to get this back up and running and now you start to see
Capacity Decline and you see that at the front and you see that in the rear what the Russians have been doing is wearing the ukrainians down on the totality of you know their their their combat capacity and you see them now turning up the pressure on the economic aspect of
It and on the political aspect of it with the way that they’re doing their targeting in terms of the Strategic Air campaign um you know there’s this game uh I forget what it’s called Zinga or something but it’s the blocks the the big tower of building blocks and you
Know a whole bunch of people just sit there and at first the tower is pretty solid and you start removing pieces and that’s what I’m talking about that that power is the ability to continue to resist you start moving pieces there’s a semblance of structure there you keep
Removing pieces there’s a semblance of structure it still exists it’s defeating gravity uh you keep removing pieces it’s there but there will come a point where you remove that last piece and the whole thing comes down and that’s where we’re at right now there’s no more pieces for
The ukrainians to remove uh they’re out of pieces and the West isn’t providing in replacement pieces because that’s what was happening before Russia was removing pieces then the West would come in and replace pieces so you know even though Russia was you know wearing them down pieces were putting in
Sustainability but when you cut off the sources of replacement pieces and you start removing pieces at a rate far greater than Ukraine can replace them you get to a situation where eventually you’re going to take out that last piece and the whole thing tumbles down that’s
Where we’re at right now there are no more replacement pieces and sooner or later you we can’t predict it you always know that part if you played the game you know it’s always you know that last part you tick tick tick everybody oh it stayed up good job the
Next person and so everybody’s hopeful that it’s gonna stay up until eventually tick tick tick boom but you don’t know when it’s going to happen just know that it’s going to happen and that’s where we’re at right now we’re waiting for that last piece to be removed and uh and
And that’s that there’s a chance that you know um you know $300 million package will be provided here that slides into piece that prevents collapse for another week um you know a billion dollars is found here two more pieces keeps it going for another month but eventually those pieces are gone the
Last piece hit and collapse so I’m with Colonel McGregor we are looking at you know it’s there until it isn’t um we’re looking at a situation where that last piece of that last block of wood’s going to be pulled out and Ukraine’s going to come tumbling down like a uh like broken
Structure that it is it seems almost like we’re reaching um it’s almost on the horizon already this the war in Ukraine and um the breaking point like the the breaking point of the Ukrainian State as a whole the system and the military yeah but as you said I it
Cannot properly be estimated um another question related to Ukraine recently um Victoria nuland resigned she was the third highest ranking US Diplomat in the United States and she was then replaced well resigned more like uh forced into uh resignation I suppose replaced by another career Diplomat John bass who was a former
Ambassador to Afghanistan um does this in your mind constitute um does this seem like the establishment the Deep State the the box or Shifting the pieces inside and sort of switching from one failed project and going on to the next they’re like okay there goes you know that plan about
Ukraine let’s put a a China hawk in John bass um who’s uh let’s let’s start something about Taiwan you know does does this seem like Victoria Nan’s resignation and her replacement does it seems to you like the pieces are shifting in Washington well I mean look Victoria nulan we we
Should never diminish the role that she played she was an architect of the current um Ukraine policy she’s the um the person that got us here and uh she had been promoted within the state department to where she was the the principal um you know architect of of
The current policy as well um she was an acting deputy secretary of state um uh and I think she was hopeful of that promotion to to get it but instead they they put somebody else in that position and you have to ask yourself why the person they replac her with whose name
Escaping right now um was also a China hand that was his Focus why would the United States be shifting away from um Ukraine and Russia towards China at this juncture and I think the answer is domestic American politics uh we’re at a situation right now where um
Ukraine is become a political Hot Potato it’s been caught up in um issues pertaining to the security of the Southern border of the United States um and the funding now is is is is is trapped uh be in in a political Battle of it’s linked to funding for the Border
It’s linked to policy changes and the border that Joe Biden is not in a position to make uh because this is an election year he can’t look to be weak he can’t uh do policies that um are being demanded by his opponent Donald Trump uh and so if he doesn’t make the
Changes then the Republicans don’t release the Ukraine fund the Israeli funding the Taiwan funding uh so there’s this this game being played and I think the Biden Administration also understands that they don’t want to be um overseeing a uh strategic defeat of Ukraine come um in the week leading up
To the November election that they need now for political reasons this Ukrainian conflict to be resolved they need a diplomatic off-ramp um and Victoria nuland was the opposite of that she was about doubling down she was about constain the course um and so I think what happened is they made a shift and
She was not willing to um to to make that shift and she made demands and uh these demands could not be met and I think the combination of um I think that when they appointed somebody else as the deputy secretary of state she realized that she had lost
That battle when she tried to uh continue to articulate aggressively she was there was push back and she realized there was no place for her left so she resigned and now she has her cure at Columbia University where she will speak to the Council of foreign relations and
Go on TV and have advisory but she’s out they’ve replaced her with uh as you had mentioned U Ambassador Bass who is best known for um overseeing the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan in the summer of 20121 and I think that he’s well positioned to oversee the
Withdrawal of the United States from Ukraine in 2024 and I think that’s the direction that uh that we’re heading so you foresee very likely an American NATO backing off from Ukraine okay that’s interesting they they have no choice I mean that the thing is it’s they’re in
An unsustainable position um I I think again because they’re surrounded by experts you know all of the decision makers right now none of them are genuine Russian experts you can’t identify a genuine Russian expert you can identify uh people who who have built their academic career their professional career on um opposing
Vladimir Putin but even then they’re not experts on Putin they just have created this uh this artificial reality surrounding Putin but they have no genuine insight into the Russian thinking um you know we we have a Russian Ambassador in the United States anaton Antonov who um you know he’s been
There now for seven years he’s a genuine expert on the United States he uh is somebody who is a specialist on arms control he helped negotiate the he negotiated the new Star treaty um with the United States back in 2010 um he he is surrounded by Russian diplomatic professionals all experts in
The United States who are ready to sit there and start talking with the United States but nobody’s talking to them because we we have no interests in having good relations with Russia we want Vladimir Putin gone therefore why go through the artifice of of good relations and
Um and so you know we have people who are Flying Blind on on Russia and right now these people are desperately looking for an offramp but an offramp implies a solution you can’t solve a problem has never been adequately defined if you don’t correctly Define the problem any
Solution you are trying to come up with to that incorrectly defined problem isn’t really solving the problem it’s solving something else and so we have people looking for an off-ramp um out of this Ukraine conflict but the problem that they’re defining the problem upon which they’re you know deriving
Political options isn’t the reality of the problem if they would sit down and talk to the Russians they would understand that the Russians don’t have a tremendous amount of flexibility on this issue and that’s the reality and that the West needs to adapt to that reality uh what’s happening is that we
Refuse to adapt to that reality and so reality is catching up with us and we’re now in a in a very um panicked State because we as analysts are the people who are advising they are unable to adequately predict the future because they don’t have a solid enough understanding of the
Present reality um and it’s it’s it’s it’s going to lead to um disaster I mean we are looking at a situation where you know Ukraine is going to collapse like a house of cards and then the West is going to be set sit there looking at the
Reality of no more Ukraine I’m not talking about you know a limited I’m talking about Ukraine no longer existing that is a real option here and um and then the West is will be struggling out on how to deal with it but at that point in time I actually think the situation becomes
Clear because we no longer have to worry about this artificial entity called Ukraine we have to deal with a new reality called Russia at that point in time phones are going to be picked up people are going to Star to talk Antonov will become a real Ambassador meaning
That they’ll really start to talk because they have no choice at that point in time this this fake problem of Ukraine will have been removed and now they have to deal with the real problem of Russia yeah it almost seems like the conflict in Ukraine the war in Ukraine
Is bound to end up more like Vietnam than Korea with the Russian with the Russian army breaking out basically into LOL onto the borders of you know Slovakia Hungary Poland which is bound to cause uh you know cold sweat Outburst of cold sweat in Warsaw Berlin um wor um Washington as well but
I wanted to ask you in uh in Shifting the subject um I’m I’m interested in in um Taiwan now I don’t know how acquainted you are but it seems almost as if in in in the past two three four years that you know the relations between Beijing Beijing and and um Washington have
Deteriorated somewhat especially under President Biden and that not only is the Biden Administration not willing to acques to basically not even to negotiate with Russia they’re openly lying to you know Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership you know they’re saying one thing and then doing another
In in in regards to Taiwan now we get reports what was it two weeks ago a week ago uh of American Special Forces on Taiwan Island not even on Taiwan Island on one of the one of the tiny islands off the coast of mainland China which is
Uh what 5 km less from the Chinese Coast I mean this is nobody in their right minds think these what what is it 200 people 300 less that these guys have any chance of actually stopping the Chinese the people’s Liberation Army should they choose to land it’s more a tripwire you
Know these these poor these poor bastards are going to get killed and then the United States the president is going to come to the Senate he’s going to be saying well you know we we have to respond China is an aggressor Taiwan is an independent state even though there
Are three communic between the PRC and the United States the United States switched recognition in 1971 uh uh under what was it Nixon even the UN seat went from the Republic of China which is based out of taipe Taiwan to the to the PRC the People’s Republic of China in
Beijing so my question to you is what do you see in the next you know this year next year in the next few years how how would this uh end up spiraling out of control is it a possibility that there would be a conflict over the Taiwan Straits over Taiwan Island itself and
That the key Industries which Taiwan Island holds for example the microchip industry which produces microchips for cars microwaves fridges you know gpus everything what what is your opinion on what’s the likelihood of a conflict over it well we there there’s a couple things one um you know China in its the
Republic of China People’s Republic of China um in its Constitution speaks of the desire for um peaceful reun peaceful reunification that’s their priority um curiously in the most recent meetings of the Chinese Communist Party xingping um and and then Senior uh Chinese officials uh have dropped um peaceful from their discussion of
Unification um and so what they’re doing is sending a signal that uh if Taiwan continues down the current course that when unification comes it will not be PE ful in nature uh it will be through military means but I think that’s posturing it’s backed up by the reality
I mean we we see the Chinese military preparing for the eventuality of of uh having to take Taiwan by force if Taiwan continues down the current trajectory it has of um you know transitioning from you know a de facto IND Independence into you know actual Independence uh
But there was an election uh last year in um in Taiwan a very important I mean actually earlier this year um and the election was not just for the presidency but for the uh for the Taiwan legislative body the presidency was Was Won by the incumbent party which um you know the
The the party is very pro-independence uh very pro-america they’re the ones who have initiated this uh close military relationship with the United States Etc you’re talking about the DPP right the the Democratic Democratic Progressive Party and if they if they had won the legislative body um I think we’d be
Looking at war in the very near future before the end of this year but they didn’t the legislative body was won by um you know the the majority of seats were won by the K Tang uh party and then also I think it’s the Taiwan People’s Party TPP
Um and these two parties are not in favor of the pro-independence route taken by the uh the incumbent and so they are actually working on improving economic relations with China improving uh political relations um you know taking a completely different track and given the fact that um you know the
Executive power in Taiwan is not absolute that the the prerogatives of the executive are linked to the willingness of the legislative body to endorse these policies when it comes to writing laws um we’re we’re seeing Taiwan at a um at sort of a deadlock so
To speak and so I think this reduces um the the the possibility of conflict because I think you’ll see that you know China will be working with these um these two elements to shape taiwan’s policy you know there’s a lot of posture taking place I don’t believe I think the
U Taiwan President gets sworn in in May I believe you know when when the new president comes in and so you see a lot of posturing by um by China right now like I said eliminating the term uh peaceful from uh their policy statement on unification uh just as a signal to
The Taiwanese president about what the future will be um but the one thing is that the neither side wants The Economic Consequences of conflict um you know Taiwan enjoys the high standard of living that they have um CH China likewise is seeking not to absorb a
Destroyed state but a state that is um that that you know is a multiplier in terms of China’s overall economic posture so war is not really an option that anybody wants and now that I believe that the the Taiwanese um domestic political reality is such that you don’t have an executive
Capable of making unilateral decisions backed by a compliant legislative body but instead you have a series of checks and balances where you know any initiative by the executive will be checked by the legislative body I think you’re going to see for the next four years uh China seek to exploit this
Division and undermine uh support for um the incumbent party for these Taiwanese nationalists uh independent-minded people um in the United States there’s really nothing the United States can do because because uh you know treaties any any agreements we have have to be agreed upon by both the executive and the
Legislative body the legislative body isn’t going to rubber stamp um you know new expanded relations with h with the West they’re actually seeking to um bring back or or to implement U you know some economic treaties and understandings that were negotiated back when the K Tang held the presidency back I think
2014 or so um so I I I I’m confident that you know void of any precipitous action by either Taiwan or the United States that uh we’re not headed towards war and here’s the other reality United States can’t fight a war against China we can’t just like we can’t fight
A war against Russia we don’t have the military capability to do it um it’s unsustainable our Navy can’t project the power in a meaningful way against the force structure that China is a RAID um you know you talk about I think it’s quoy and Matsu it’s it might be the
Island of quoy or Matsu where the US Special Forces have uh have deployed um you know it’s it’s it’s a nothing Burger meaning that the Chinese really don’t care other than the politics of it the United States isn’t looking for a triip wire I think last year there was a
Situation where we um we sailed through the Taiwanese straight the Taiwan straight between Taiwan and China um there’s an American warship together with a Canadian warship and the Chinese um moved aggressively uh responding threatening to Ram the ship Etc uh because the Chinese believe that um
Because Taiwan is China there is no um right of international Passage through the Taiwan E Straight because it’s not an international shipping route it’s Sovereign Waters um and so the United States had to be confronted with the fact that if they continue to force this issue there will inevitably be a
Situation where an American ship receives damage and then the United States will have to do something then they turn to the war gamers in the Pentagon who say every time we run this scenario boss we lose we don’t just lose a little we lose dramatically it’s a
Strategic defeat um and that’s what the military is telling the president that if you push this thing too far and we begin a process of uh you know military escalation we never win there’s no scenario where we do win realistically there are war games that have been done
Where they’ve come in and they’ve tweaked the system a little bit giving America more capability than it has giving the Chinese less capability and in those cases it comes out to a draw but the reality is if there is a war between China and the United States over
Taiwan the United States will lose strategically um we can’t win and that means that Taiwan will be captured by the Chinese uh but it will be destroyed in the process um that’s an outcome that you know the United States is aware of and believe it or not the Taiwanese uh
Political Elite are aware of both those in favor of better relations with China and those who are uh you know in favor of pursuing this uh this drive to Independence they know what the outcome is and there there’s not anybody right now that’s suicidal so I think that
While there’s going to be a lot of posturing at the end of the day the lack of ability to follow through on um a policy that leads to military confrontation the guarantee of a negative outcome for the United States and Taiwan is probably the best chance we have of sustaining peace because they
Know that if they initiate something they’re going to lose I’m of the opinion that you know in in the event of a war between the United States and Tha uh in United States and the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan Island I mean basically United
States Navy bases in ninawa or not um or in Japan right the rest of Japan um I mean the United States is essentially projecting influence across thousands and thousands and thousands of kilometers of open ocean and I mean just last year last summer there were reports
Of like the the Pacific command of the United States Navy essentially uh panicking that they’re running out of attack’s missile ammunition and whatnot which were essentially primarily meant as a safeguard against the PRC the pla whatever it it almost seems like a a suicide mission and and I I mean if the
United States Navy can maybe you know push its ships through the Taiwan Straits one more time two more times I don’t know how long the Chinese the political leaders of the PRC will allow for this to happen again um but be that as it may should a war between the US
And the PRC occur over Taiwan Island obviously The Logical outcome would be that Taiwan Island would essentially be flattened leveled in the combat and the fighting the bombings and so on because the the PRC can isolate it they can Institute an air blockade a naval blockade and so on and so forth there’s
Not a whole lot the United States can do there but the question arises would the United States leadership cynical as it is um push this thing maybe to a war not for the purpose of a win against China per se but if for no other reason than
To portray China as an aggressor and then to Institute a blockade um a sort of Naval blockade as ridiculous as that sounds of the US Navy blockading mainland China which is kind of a ridiculous statement because United States Navy is smaller and there projecting influence across open ocean
For thousands of kilometers and then instituting sanctions against China whose economy is based on export of finished goods so how feasible is this of happening do you think it’s a possibility somehow that some people in Washington Hawks of some kind would want to initiate a conflict regardless of the
Will of the residents and politicians of Taiwan to start a war uh portray China as an aggressor just like Russia and Ukraine and then sanction China destroy its economy and so destroy the social contract between you know the citizens of China and the Chinese government itself the social contract is you know
The economy is good we obey the economy is not good we do not obey you lose the Mandate of Heaven which is sort of the founding principle of Chinese Authority Chinese government and in such a way threaten the the the the existence and the governance of the CPC CCP
Itself well that that sounds like a Moscow maidon moment doesn’t it but it’s a Beijing maidon moment it’s unrealistic it’s it shows a total lack of understanding of the realities of uh of of of the Chinese domestic condition um it’s it’s a it’s a theory that’s put out by the
You know the people I called Putin Whisperers and we call them X Whisperers of people who have no understanding of China no understanding of how China Works um what makes China function um the economic reality of of China’s being we uh we don’t understand it we have a
Class of American Chinese experts that grew out of the uh decade of the 1970s and 80s where you know we we talked about a one China policy but we didn’t mean it we never meant it as soon as we agreed to it we have presidents running around signing uh findings and and statements
That say we didn’t really mean that um we went along with it because we thought that by introducing China to capitalism that that would be the end of Communism we believe that there would be a transition away from it and therefore we stopped studying Chinese communism we stopped studying
Chinese reality we were waiting waiting for something to emerge that we would shape we would Define um that never emerged and so we have an entire class of Chinese experts who are experts on nothing just like our Russian experts experts on nothing then they don’t know anything about the reality of China they
Don’t know how China operates they don’t know the the keys to Chinese uh economic success we have people can say oh well supply lines Supply chains manufacturing base this that and the other thing it’s not how it works it’s the Chinese have a system that we need to understand and
It’s far more complex and actually in many ways far more simple than um than what we than than what we tried to overlay on them but the the Chinese are not going to play the American game um you know China first of all how do you
Sanction a nation that is um that has you know borders with uh not just Russia but um the U the the the Eurasian um Hinterland um a new Silk Road with connectivity uh to You Know Places West in including Europe um how do you sanction how do how do you how do
You how do how do you blockade that you can’t um not only that as you seek to blockade remember that China’s built missile systems that will syn every ship in the United States Navy so we can’t sustain the blockade um US policy towards China that is being driven by
These Hawks is a policy that’s not based in reality it’s not based in economic reality it’s not based in a reality of China’s internal domestic uh situation it’s not based in in the geopolitical reality I mean we are talking about a world that is transitioning from an American Singularity to a multipolarity
Um you know but you know American policy is premise that we still will have the rules-based international order in place where United States is calling the shots that’s not the case that that that time is passed um and so I I I think that a lot of these policy options that people
Are are putting out there are just it’s just fanciful that’s like already starting to build a city on Mars before we even got somebody to go to Mars we don’t know if we can even get to Mars but people are planning cities uh you know talking about you know China in the
In the way that the conservatives are talking about is absurd because it’s not based on reality uh the Chinese reality is that China is a far more Dynamic far more resilient a far more capable Nation than these naysayers in the west are um want people to believe right I’m of that opinion as
Well I you know you mentioned this and I I forgot to uh ask this in the previous question I was going to say I mean in in in in the event of such an unrealistic conflict over Taiwan between the US and the PRC the US Navy and the Japanese
Navy would essentially be operating in what is I mean it’s basically Chinese Coastal Waters Air Force I mean it it’s true the Chinese Air Force the Chinese missile systems the the the the landbased Army the Navy all of these it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s ridiculous
To even consider but the you know as the Chinese saying goes we live in interesting may you live in interesting times and in interesting times we live we’ve come to the point where we actually have to consider whether this is actually a possibility maybe of actually happening but um it seems
Almost that that that you know Xi Jinping the the the president of the of the PC the People’s Republic of China over the past what 10 years 12 years he’s instituted this you know belt and Road initiative which essentially is a a landbased corridor a new Silk Road
Through Eurasia from China from the industrial regions of China and the industrial uh Chinese Hinterland over into through Central Asia into Russia Belarus and onwards into into Europe so this this conflict that it it should it happen is likely to and should the United States impose sanctions on China
Well not only sure it’ll hurt China probably in the short term damage its economy me but I guess what I’m trying to say is eventually it’ll lead to nothing but B nothing but trouble probably would you know disqualify discredit United States internationally economically should they
Choose to do this but you know um I guess we’ll see I’m um I’m hoping for a kmt victory in the future maybe even a presidential victory in the next round of elections in four five years hopefully we’ll see a peaceful integration because I don’t see how in
The multipolar world how you know an independent Taiwan State could ever exist outside of the confines of you know the Chinese state but um I’m sorry um do you have any more time am I being is this unfortunately we we we have about five more minutes and then I have to go okay
Okay let me just ask you one last or like one or two last questions um sort of going to push them together and then you can give me your opinion and we can end this it it’s basically um about NATO influence in the Balkans specifically so yesterday was today is March 25th 2024
Yesterday was March 24th 2024 it is exactly 25 years since NATO aggression against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia at that time basically Serbia and Montenegro today one of these states today is a NATO state vassel state puppet state call him what you will Montenegro was forcibly integrated in 2017 into NATO
I’m interested in your opinion on NATO and NATO influence that is to say you know Euro Atlantic Integrations aspirations in the Balkans and then uh how do you see the future for example of the two crucial States or attempts of a state Bosnia and heroina and um you know
Air quotes Kosovo and how do you see NATO as an organizational structure developing in the future does NATO have a future in your opinion you know the um the the disintegration of Yugoslavia was something that um where where these these states emerged from Serbia Bosnia Bosnia Heria Croatia Slovenia um
Montenegro um Macedonia these are all you know former parts of the the former Yugoslavia the disintegration of uh of Yugoslavia was a was a purposeful by um the Western European political Elites and economic Elites in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union to try and head off problems the
Idea was to go in there and eliminate uh Serbian nationalism as a uh as as as this poison in uh in Europe and um NATO became the um the the the military arm of the European a European driven in policy of of doing this um left to its own devices U NATO backed
By the European Union I believe would be successful in creating the appearance of absorption I mean you’re never going to resolve the underlying um you know you know Serbian nationalism but I would say that if it weren’t for what’s going on in Ukraine that if Russia wasn’t a
Problem that Serbia would be sucked into NATO uh via the European Union meaning that the Allure of the European Union would be too much for Serbia to resist Serbia would seek to join the European Union and in the process begin the you know the the a a a process that led to
Eventual NATO membership um that NATO was um that was NATO was resilient enough to accomplish this European task but NATO has bitten off more than it can chew NATO has collapsed in Afghanistan NATO uh is suffering a strategic defeat in Ukraine and NATO has shifted its primary focus away from resolving uh the
Former Yugoslavian problems and now dealing with um you know the demands that are being put out there by the Baltic states by Poland this focus on Russia um and as a result you’re seeing that Serbia is becoming more and more um they’re growing a backbone when it
Comes to standing up the European Union and to to Nato I think uh the Serbian President yesterday gave a very forceful speech where he said we will never be me members of NATO we will never join NATO um I also believe that NATO’s on a trajectory of um eventual dissolution I
Don’t think NATO can survive what’s happening in Ukraine I think the divisions that arise within Europe uh the fractures that already exist in the European Union will become more manifest and I think you’re going to see the the the disintegration of NATO politically and militarily it’s it’s too expensive
Uh for Europe can’t afford under its current economic condition can’t afford to um to build the mil a military necessary to make NATO a viable counterweight to Russia’s military um you know Finland and Sweden are going to find that a lot more uh pressure is
Going to be put on them to do things that they assumed that a NATO alliance would provide that they’re going to have to sell fund they’re going to have to build up capabilities it’s going to bankrupt them they don’t have the money to do it Germany can’t uh you know can’t
Maintain the 2% uh funding requirement um and that’s just to sustain their military and let alone grow it as uh Schultz and others have spoken of France is looking at a situation where they’re going to be compelled to have cont you know further uh military reductions
Because they can’t afford to to keep up this military spending all parties are going to be doing that the United States is going to find Itself hamstrung by a commitment to a strategic nuclear deterrent revitalization program that’s going to just suck money out of everything and they won’t be able to
Maintain the kind of conventional power necessary to be a meaningful member of NATO at least a meaningful member that NATO is used to where America is called upon to solve all problems and and provide most of the muscle um those days are gone so I think Europe is going to
Be confronting the necessity of um redefining what a European security U mechanism should look like independent of the United States is something that uh Emmanuel macron spoke of prior to the current conflict in Ukraine and I believe that once Russia wins decisively in Ukraine macron will understand that
Uh there is no option to build a um a NATO capable of a standing up to Russia that the best uh they can hope for is a diplomatic um uh di diplomatic Arrangement where Russia respects European security um spheres of influence um Europe respects Russia’s spheres of influence and both sides seek
Um to normalize their their the military balance of power um it’s not in Russia’s interest to have Europe militarize and build a whole new military even though that might be the economic decline of Europe Russia doesn’t need the decline of Europe Russia needs a stable Europe to be a stable trading partner and
Provide political stability on the the Western flank and so I I think we’re looking at a situation where NATO isn’t going to survive more than another decade or so and the inevitable collapse of NATO relieves a whole bunch of pressure from the Baltic of the Balan States one of the interesting questions
Is what happens when it reinvigorated Serbia um decides to reassert its uh authority over uh Serbian territories over you know territories they they can consider Serbia Kosovo over the Serb Sky Republic in Bosnia Heria What U what Europe will be able to do in response given that Russia will probably back the
Serbians in this occasion you know I think that’s a future uh um Powder Keg for Europe um Europe thought they got away with it thought they avoided it but it’s there it’s not going away and it’s going to be a headache for Europe going forward yeah it certainly seems like a
Powder keg for the future a few decades which is bound to explode at some point causing a bunch of blood and chaos but you know we’ll see the development of NATO how how NATO as an organization develops what they’ll be able to do with whether the whether NATO will exist at
All whether the United States will be willing to engage in another you know expeditionary War almost a colonial war against Serbia but you know I guess that’s a subject for another time thank you Mr Scott Ritter thank you for answering my question thank you for being guest at World Pravda you’ve
Answered all my questions perfectly and U I hope to see you another time I hope you come as a guest another time well it was a privilege and I thank you very much for your questions and I I look forward to talking to you in the future thanks for having me
On no problem see you okay
7 Comments
after what the west and ukraine has done and the western respons they made a lot of enemies as-well in russia as-well outside, my blood boils and I am probably not the only one.
Bravo za intervju!
Thank you for having Scotty (he is on fire)!
Among 5 best interviews of Scott Ritter.
Following Scott for 2+ years. SERBON, the guy who interviewed Scott, led him into one very informative conversation.
Thanks, SERBON.
Keep going 💪 🇷🇸🇺🇲🇷🇺
I was 12 or 13 when i saw what happend with the sovet union collapsing. it made the realty of the west clear to me , that moment was when i started learning from russian history, culture, and language. I don't feel native to my country because i can't relate to there actions and common civilian behaviors. my standards are much higher. I can understand russian much better.
Scott at his best! Always I hear him, despite high risky the actual american policy is, I realise that thanks to the Russian high emotional and strategic control, the future days of the anglo hegemon are numbered.
pedo