Reform UK CLOSING in on Tories as HIGHEST ever support level recorded in latest poll | Chris Hopkins

‘They are generating quite a lot of popularity in opinion polls.’

Pollster, Savanta UK, Chris Hopkins, reacts to Reform UK recording its highest ever support level in a YouGov poll.

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With the Prime Minister already facing a potential Revolt he’s now been dealt another blow with some Sensational new pooling out this morning yes it doesn’t look good according to yugov the conservatives are on the same share they received at their lowest ever EB in the aftermath of Liz truss’s mini budget so

The polling also found get this that the Reform Party reform UK have their highest vote share ever yes just four points between the Tories and reform at this point according to latest yugov poll both in the teens well let’s break down the numbers with the pollster Chris

Hopkins of opinium now Chris I know it’s not your poll that was out this morning but do you recognize this trend a precipitated rise in reform UK with a corresponding fool in the Tory vote yeah we do Tom to to be honest I mean our polling at savanta has also shown

You know similar levels in terms of the records for for reform UK and indeed for the conservative vote share you know our most recent poll at Savant had the conservatives on 26% now that’s considerably higher than the U Got pole but it probably is down to some methodological differences which I’ve

Gone into some detail before on on my Twitter feed but that is one of the lowest figures that we’ve shown for the conservatives indeed since Liz Trust and the week before we had them as low as 25% which was as low as the last throws of her Premiership but and this week we

Had reform UK themselves on 11% again reform UK aren’t in our main voting intention prompt we put them in a second sub prompt um but that is still the highest ever figure that we’ve ever shown for reform UK which does just goes to show and they are generating quite a

Lot of popularity in opinion polling at the moment can we draw any parallels perhaps to with uh ukip the UK independ dep party that perhaps at this time in the election cycle people say they’re going to vote for a new party like the Reform Party and clearly lots of people

Say that they are planning to but then when it comes down to it because of the way our electoral system works they may find that actually they don’t see their vote counting in the same way as if they voted for one of the main parties so essentially will this carry through to

The election yeah and I think Emily that that remains the huge question for for us pollsters and indeed sort of all political commentators really at the minute we just don’t know ultimately we’re showing pretty high reform UK figures whether that is as high as you

Go on 15% or or or you know still with us well above or well into double figures um but there hasn’t been the Electoral evidence to really back that up either in byelections or indeed in local elections now obviously we do have local elections around the corner and I

Think that the Richard tisus party are probably going to be one of the most interesting stories from from this set of local election to see actually how do they perform is there any electoral evidence that they are justifying their opinion polling numbers at the moment and and whether they are something of a

Bit of a midterm um protest Vote or or indeed are they the real deal and I think that you mentioned ukip there Emily I mean they ended up backing up their high opinion polling numbers with a lot of counselors across the country and then come the 2015 general election

Although they didn’t end up with any seats they did end up with 12% of the vote share the country so reform haven’t done that yet and I think that that does give us pulsers a little bit of of know a bit of a pause when we come to these

Numbers but you know there was nothing to suggest at the minute that they couldn’t do that I think we just want to see it with our own eyes and with some actual evidence from actual elections first yes and I suppose it’s not too long until the local elections which

Could be a big test of this but frankly when we have looked at electoral events when we have looked at the Kingswood and Welling BR by elections um reform was on above 10% in each of those although in Rochdale nowhere near yeah and I think that again Tom you

Just you know just just highlights the fact that at the minute they were a bit of an enigma we don’t really know kind of where they stand among among the British selectorate you know based on obviously on this on this yugov poll today you know that does imply that you

Know roughly one in seven voters are going to be voting for a reform that seems quite high and we haven’t had that electoral evidence yet to back that up and and obviously some of those by elections that that that that you referen you know the Rochdale one was particularly some strange circumstances

Given that most of the major parties didn’t really campaign there at all you would have expected reform to potentially have quite a strong showing but as it was it ended up being George Galloway instead and and and and obviously in Kingswood um you know they did perform well but I wouldn’t have

Described them necessarily as performing above par based on their opinion pollings and that really is the only evidence that we’ve had recently at least of Reform really really doing much in terms of in terms of actual electoral evidence I think that there was a stat that I read this this week that they’ve

Only contested two of 39 local Council byelections in 2024 we just they just haven’t really had been tested yet and I think that therefore yes these local elections on the 2nd of May are going to be really really interesting to see how re form end up doing absolutely well

Thank you very much indeed for your expertise Chris Hopkins pollster of course with savanta with savanta with vanta um very interesting indeed I do wonder when it comes down to it whether people will vote for reform how much of a protest vote is it at the moment when

It comes to polling because our electoral system like it or lump it like it or loath it um doesn’t lend itself to uh voting for smaller parties but it is fascinating these two parties are inching closer and closer and closer together you’ve got this corresponding

Drop in the Tory vote rise in the reform UK vote the the difference now is 19 and 15% in that poll between 19 and 15 quite crazy is it considering how how what the Tories were on not too long ago but in 2019 we did see some polls where there

Was crossover between the Tory party and the brexit party as it was then in the midst of that European election campaign you saw Westminster voting intention whereby reform went ahead or sorry the brexit party as it was then went ahead of the tor could we see something similar of

Course after those European elections the Prime Minister resigned and then Boris Johnson became prime minister and suddenly the brexit party fizzled down and went to nowhere but could we see something similar after the local elections could a strong showing in the polls and in the polling stations for re

Form actually dislodge rishy Zak yes and I also think there’s probably a lot of people out there who have done the same Journey made the same Journey as uh Lee Anderson gone from labor to the conservatives and then to reform uh but there you go let us know

What you make of that um are you surprised that reform is polling only four points below the conservative party or was that what you were expecting as well gbvs at GB news.com