UK must ‘listen carefully’ as army chief warns public could face conscription, says Tobias Ellwood

Former defence secretary Tobias Ellwood has warned conscription could be a possibility in Britain as “authoritarian states exploit our timidity” on the global stage.

Speaking to Sky’s Kay Burley, the Tory MP warned the UK has become “too complacent”, adding that “there is a 1939 feel to the world right now”.

Mr Ellwood was discussing reports General Sir Patrick Sanders is to suggest the British public could face a call-up to the army in the event of a war with Russia.

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Lucky to have Tobi a cwood with us this morning it’s good to see you um very serendipitous because um somebody who you’ll know well General s Patrick Saunders um I’m not sure if you served with him but certainly you have served you did so um he’s suggesting reading

Between the lives in the telegraph today that if we go to war with Russia uh we could find that our youth may have to be conscripted that’s a bit alarming yes head of the British army one of the most cerebral thinkers that we’ve got a strategist we need to listen and listen

Carefully we’ve been too complacent I think I’ve said this many times with you what’s coming over the horizon should shock us it should worry us and we are not prepared we’ve had a couple of decades three decades or so since the Cold War life has gone well it’s now

Going to get more difficult as authoritarian States exploit our timidity our perhaps reluctance to really put fires out the best example of that is a democracy on the on the uh corner of Eastern Europe that in its third year is now uh in conflict and we’ve not resolved that so Patrick

Saunders is saying prepare for what’s coming over the horizon there is a 1939 feel to the world right now these author authoritarian states are rearming uh there’s a risk of veress about uh the West in wanting to deal with that and eron uh institutions Global institutions such as the United Nations um aren’t

Able to hold these erant nations to account in fact the UN i’ would go further is reaching its League of Nations moment unless it’s reformed so that’s where the world is heading we need to wake up to that there’s a mindset now of this era of insecurity uh

That we’re heading towards and but we’re still on a peacetime defense budget of just 2% that does need to change and the Red Sea is a great example that if you don’t step forward if you don’t uh if you’re not robust in dealing with those that are testing the the the uh the

Envelope um it will be our weakness will be exploited and it will affect our economy okay so let’s unpick some of that should we um we don’t have enough members in the Army is that what you’re saying very much so uh there the Army is now overstretched it’s uh down to 7,000

Or so different reasons for that pay is now an issue accommodation is improving but remains an issue as well uh you obviously competing salary-wise with civil you know the civy street too so that needs to be looked at I know Grant chaps recognizes this recognizes the uh

The concerns here there’s also the state of our reserves as well they’re the ones that will be pulled in if we need to mobilize too but ultimately as I say it’s a big mindset of Britain recognizing just how dangerous our world is going what is our role to step

Forward as we’ve done in the past uh to defend what’s important to us so you’re suggesting the defense budget should be up at 5% as it was during the Cold War to jump to 5% there wouldn’t even know what to do with that money straight away

It takes time to procure the ships the planes the tanks and so forth what we do need to do is quickly move to 2.5% and then eventually 3% in the Cold War it was about 4% But ultimately you know we have a Navy which is half the size of

What it what it should be likewise with the Army as well and the Raf in the Cold War uh we had 36 fast jet squadrons we’re down to about six today and that’s just an illustration of just how small our armed forces are extremely professional U the equipment is good

It’s just not enough to deal with all the threats that were dealing with our world is no longer at peace we’re moving to a world at war Britain absolutely has a role to play but we need to upgrade our defense posture but do shock tactics like those that I’m I propose General

Saunders is going to use during his speech at 10:15 today do those actually work well as I say I think it’s going to take repeating this message again and again and again and there may be an acute event that will um wake everybody up to say my goodness yes there is

Absolutely a threat there because of course what sits behind Russia is China there’s a dangerous Alliance there our world could easily Splinter into two spheres of competing influence the West which is shrinking and authoritarian States under China pursuing and exploiting a very different uh interpretation of our Global Order and

Then many countries across the global South for example looking to see which way the world is going to go and looking at what Iran is doing uh via the hoties in the Red Sea at the moment great example of and then what sits behind Iran of course is Russia what sits

Behind the houthis Hamas and hisbah is Iran and again for a DE we’ve allowed Iran to advance its influence across the region destabilizing not least in Yemen as well I’m really pleased that we are continuing our work in the Red Sea to protect those international shipping

Lanes if we did nothing as some may be arguing that would have a KnockOn consequence to our economy but it would also give the signal not just to Iran but to other uh competitors to take advantage of our weakness what should we be doing about Gaza about Gaza that’s

You know tough question there the first thing you need to do is to further the idea that we can get to a ceasefire that will require a third party uh uh to sit between both the the gazans and indeed Israel too but ultimately there’s a humanitarian issue in Gaza itself uh

Israel needs to recognize that only a two-state solution is where the world wants to go where it needs to go as well there needs to be a summit in my view of all the interested parties the stakeholders including the Arab Nations whose support is critical that can be

Held at Checkers or at Camp David that’s what needs to happen as soon as possible rather than this drifting into a a frozen conflict uh as it seems to be at the moment I’m surprised you you went with the two-state um solution uh comment um it’s been described by many

As a slogan for now given the state of Gaza it’s been described as a slogan because we’ve had the Madrid talks the Camp David talks we’ve had the Oslo Accords and so forth all talking about this two-state solution for decades decades and decades and it’s never materialized many reasons for that not

Least Hamas and what it’s done to Israel over the years in sending missiles across poor governance in the West Bank uh as well but also I think a reluctance if we’re really honest of Israel wanting to pursue this as well what we can’t see is this cycle of violence continue again

Where things calm down between Gaza and Israel for another decade or so and then it all then ratches up again we need to determine a long-term solution for this that requires the Western support requires the Americans leaning in requires the Arab Community particularly those who signed the abrahamic Accords

To do their part in supporting uh the Palestinians in uh the West Bank and Gaza let me um ask you U let’s pivot given that you’re you know a senior conservative MP you were a former Defense Minister you were former head of the defense committee I’m sure you’ll

Know Simon Clark very well he’s also writing in the telegraph they’re doing very well today with all the exclusives um he’s a former Ally of Rishi sunak he’s cut him to the Bone saying that he’s uninspiring he used to be an asset and now he’s an anchor what are you

Hearing in the t- rooms uh where do I start with this there’s a lot of respect for Simon’s thought his his uh contribution to the direction of of the party particularly in the economic space but there’s shock a disappointment in what he’s doing we’re just moving in to

Calmer Waters thanks to the leadership of Richi Sun it’s been a bumpy couple of years and now he is doing this throwing his teddies in the quarter because his uh choice of prime minister is no longer in number 10 no longer in number 10 it’s it’s not only uh dangerous Reckless

Selfish it’s also defeatist because what the electorate want to see they want to see leadership they want to see a good Manifesto with policies in it but they also want to see Unity Unity Unity Unity that is what will win a general election and to do this months away from the next

Gener next general election is absolutely shocking and more and more colleagues are openly distancing themselves from Simon Clark I’m sure there may be others behind Simon that n i rolling behind him I was going to ask how representative is he I do urge him and others to think really carefully

About what they’re doing because it really is damaging the prospects not only of any chance of us us winning and don’t forget 25% of the electorate still don’t know which way they might vote at the next election but it’s also how representative is he how representative

Is he there will always be a caucus there is in labor as well that probably want to go k against Kama but what are they doing right now they’re keeping quiet and Simon Clark should keep quiet along with his colleagues too let us do our best to try and win the next general

Election don’t be a roadblock to prevent that happening okay it’s always great to see you Tobi Elwood thank you very much indeed for joining us