Watch the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge for the latest political news, reaction, and analysis.
On the eve of the budget, almost certainly the last one before the general election, Sophy welcomes former Tory minister Lord David Frost, Labour’s shadow health secretary Wes Streeting, and TUC general secretary Paul Nowak.
On Sophy’s panel tonight are:
🔴 Harriett Baldwin, Tory MP and chair of the Treasury Select Committee.
🔴 Andrew Fisher, former head of policy for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.
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Betting the house on tax cuts only makes sense when you consider this amongst a narrow group of Voters those who backed the conservatives in 2019 those who attempted by reform while tax cuts are a lot more popular so what does that tell us it tells us is is a government trying
To shore up their core vote a party trying to limit their losses rather than a party trying to win well let’s take a look now shall we at that expected headline measure a cut to National Insurance a further 2 p on a pound on top of the previous reduction
The chancellor made in the Autumn statement it means that 27 million working people will see a saving of an average of £450 a year fuel duty is also expected to remain Frozen a 5p ler fuel Duty reduction due to end at the end of this month will now be extended for another
Year will it shift the dial here Sky’s political editor Beth rby with tonight’s first report a Chancellor putting the final touches on his pre-election budget that could be his last with so much at stake for Jeremy Hunt’s party as well as his own political prospects a cut to National Insurance coming our
Way miles behind in the polls the Tories need a huge swinging support to get back into play but voters in his constituency unsure if Mr Hunt can hold on this seat is a key lib Dam Target it’s one of the blue wall seats if you think you think
It’s going to fall had a really good chance of um getting hunt out this time um in the past the old Guilford seat used to swing quite a bit and was close to a lib Dem win on a couple of occasions I think with the new godling
And Ash sort of seat we should be able to manage it I think he’s probably better than his party uh I think he’s a fairly straightforward MP he’s a good constituency mp uh whether he’ll be here after the election who knows certainly as a mom of
Three you sort of get lost in knowing you know sometimes there are promises made and sometimes it’s really hard to trust knowing that those those promises are going to come come to fruition members of Mr Hunt’s local conservative Association say the chancellor needs to balance tax cuts with spending on public services
Infrastructure it’s child care it’s education it’s the Health Service and those are always the things that people will talk about yes they would love tax cuts uh but everybody realizes in their heart of hearts uh that these have to be afforded but news that Mr Hunt donated
More than a 100,000 pounds of his own money to his local party suggests he knows the fight he’s in to remain an MP there are a large numbers of candidates all over the country and they they’re sharing their seriousness by putting their money in we’re going to fight a
Good campaign here and a strong campaign and we think that we should Prevail but a liberal Democrat takeover is brewing here their leader Ed DAV on Hunt’s patch cheers and confident I think Jeremy Hunt is in real trouble in his seat from the liberal Democrats everyone can see that
The double Democrats are the ones who can win here in ashon godling but also across sorry across the blue wall it’s the little Democrats who are the ones who can beat the conservatives the chancellor will say that this budget proves his economic plan is on track and he will deliver
Another 10 billion pounds of tax cuts for workers to Pro prove that point but whether he says he’s delivering for voters or not you don’t appear to be listening there were tax cuts earlier this year and yet the polls haven’t moved indeed some inside number 10 tell
Me quietly they don’t expect this budget to be a big poll Game Changer and that leaves the question if this doesn’t shift the doll what next it conservative MPS want the chancellor to be bolder so we’ve had National Insurance cuts already we had one in the Autumn
Statement that is why I think the best way forward would be to balance that out with an income tax cut and obviously that’s a change to the thresholds up to 4 million more people will be dragged into paying higher rates of Taxation because those thresholds haven’t changed
By 2029 and I think we need to do something about that adid all the war in Tory factions there is consensus something needs to change and if this budget can’t do it many will be asking what can we can talk now to Beth rby our political editor who is here with us so
I guess we know one of the big announcements already don’t we then it’s quite unusual uh to know that uh the expectation anyway is that the chancellor will uh cut two percentage points again off National Insurance uh on Wednesday tomorrow that’s about 10 billion uh pounds worth of tax cuts it
Will give people another 4 £50 off uh it’s for working people National Insurance so it’s about 27 million workers an average worker gets £450 quid you remember in January they implemented uh this tax cut that he announced in November it was the same thing so that’s
900 uh in total for an average worker how are they framing it I think they’ll do uh the framing around this is about growing the economy it’s about work it’s about rewarding work I think the framing of it that see from the chancellor is when you look into the future in April
Energy bills will come down uh inflation Target might hit 2% the bank of England’s Target in May June does that have a knock on for interest rates and what you can see there Sophie is a government that is beginning to build a picture of stick with us we’re on track
Uh and this is the sort of down payment if you like uh on tax cuts I was told by someone uh in government that this is more a proof Point moment to prove to voters uh that the government are doing what they said they would do rather than
A big kind of big whiz moment a big bold budget that’s interesting not a big whiz moment not a big bold budget and yet they brief out one of the big lines before I mean if we’re sitting right here you know tomorrow same time still talking about TP off National Insurance
Is that going to be a problem well look I think there’s a couple of things to say number one a poll came out this week and immedately it’s only one poll but it had the Tories on their worst polling for 40 years at 20 points it’s one poll
But that has really really worried conservatives someone said to me today you know looking at this we are heading for a worse performance than 97 we could end up with 80 seats that’s the kind of Doomsday scenario MPS are going for and the reason I said that it’s not I’m not
Avoiding your question I’m trying to say rather that if this is all there is and the briefings are such C like the fiscal Headroom which is how much effectively he has to play with is limited so there aren’t going to be these big tax cuts but if it is National Insurance you
Heard pretty Patel in that piece she’s speaking for dozens of MPS when she says that they want Bolder tax cuts they want National Insurance Cuts she thinks that should come through cutting uh public spending um look labor are saying to me tonight they think that he will move on
Income tax they think he has more Headroom than they’re saying we think it’s about 13 B ion labor think it’s about 25 billion I have to say I’ve been strongly steered away from that but this is a pre election budget so you’ve got to expect a rabbit haven’t you yeah I
Think so as well I really think so I think we’ll get a sense about whether or not it’s an election sooner or later as well Beth thank you very much indeed Beth riby there at political editor well behind every budget of course is the economics as important as the politics
More important you might say and our economics editor Ed Conway has been crunching the the numbers and analyzing that all important Headroom whatever that is the chancellor needs to afford his tax cuts it’s the budget and what does that mean it means we’re going to have lots
Of figures lots of data we’re going to guide you through it all though including some important data this is gross domestic product the rate at which the economy is growing these are the forecasts last time around they’ll probably have to be downgraded a little bit uh in the short run because why well
We’re in recession right now but they might be upgraded off into the future I’m afraid that’s not necessarily because the economy is doing brilliantly right now it’s because you’ve got really strong population growth mainly because of immigration which pushes those bars up another chart that’s worth just
Focusing on this is the tax burden as some people call it the amount of taxes we have as a percentage of GDP going all the way back many decades and if you look at that line that’s the latest uh projection you can see it’s getting up to the highest level since the aftermath
Of World War II an extraordinary statistic there and the chancellor says he wants to bring the tax burden down but he says he’s hemmed in by Headroom by the amount of Headroom he has and it’s worth just focusing on what is this Headroom everyone’s going on about well
It largely comes back down to the fact that the ch’s got three fiscal rules and the most binding of them is that he needs to get the national debt falling this is their current projection for the national debt and you can see it’s not falling immediately in fact it’s higher
In a few years than it is at the start but that’s the key thing about the rule the rule says you need to get it down falling between year and four and year five and is that happening well zoom in yes just about down from 93.2% of GDP to
92.8% of GDP in the gap between those two things that’s fiscal Headroom but if you take that bar and kind of work out what that is in cash terms that’s about 13 billion pounds so when the CHS are saying I’ve got this fiscal hring to play with it’s because of that but a
Couple of things to note first of all take the 13 billion pounds by historical standards that’s not an enormous amount of Headroom versus the kind of rules that different chancellors have had so there there’s that 13 billion pounds sunak Hammond Osborne in the Coalition they tended to have more room to play
With against their fiscal rules but secondly and broader Point here why is there so much focus on essentially what our forecasts we’re basing a lot of government policy on these lines here this is the OB forecast over the years of national debt and you can see they
For they forecast change a lot they changed an awful lot because of course the future is unpredictable and if you look at the gap between the forecast and what’s actually happened so take this for instance that average Gap the fiveyear forecast Horizon Gap going back the last few years it’s
415 billion pounds it’s a staggering staggering amount raising the question why are we basing so much decisions on investment decisions on spending decisions on tax on all of this one of those questions we may have answered along with many others in the budgets Ed Conway there we’re listening
To that analysis is a conservative peer Lord Frost who has been critical of the influence of the office for Budget responsibility saying the Treasury under Jeremy Hunt has allowed the OB to usurp its role he’s also been accused of being part of a secret plot to bring down
Richard sunak after he was part publicizing a 40,000 Yugo poll which predicted disaster for the conservatives at the next election great to have you here on the eve of the budget I’m very interested to hear your analysis of where we are so what do you want to see
From the chancellor tomorrow well what I want to see is a budget that is deals with the problems the country has got and it does have lots and lots of problems there’s no doubt about that but what I’d like to hear is the chancell setting out strategy telling us that
There’s no future for this country as a high tax High spend Social Democrat economy coming up with a strategy that’s going to focus on growth the econom is not growing incomes per head are actually falling and people can feel it we need something that deals with that
And I’m afraid welcome as a TWP cut in National Insurance would be it is really just sort of fiddling while Rome Burns I’m afraid I mean the chanc would say that’s an expensive policy it’s a big policy you know two percentage points of National Insurance it helps I’m always
Happy when the government stops taking money from people and allows them to keep it themselves but it is only 0.5% of GDP what we’ve got to do is set out a strategy we’ve got to deal with the problems the country’s got we’ve got to try and get down Energy prices for
Example deal with the Net Zero problem deal with the productivity destroying public services that we’ve got all those are big problems what does that mean so we are we’re spending we we’ve got a a net zero policy that I believe is pushing up costs of energy prices uh
Energy is about four times as expensive here as it is in the US if you want to see why our economy is not growing that’s one big reason for that we’ve got to look at the strategy it’s no good just coming up with something to try and
Satisfy people on the day we’ve got to show what is a conservative strategy how will conservative Britain be different from labor Britain how are we going to get there you tweeted uh this week to say this when will conservatives start believing that the polls say what they
Say and that the party is heading for a massive defeat unless there is some radical change soon you talk about a strategy you talk about growth but like what’s an example of the radical change that you think is necessary well we need to get tax down we need to get spending
Down that’s the that is the biggest problem the government spending best part of a trillion pounds every year and good chunks of it are are wasted we need to do that we need to deal with Net Zero we need to deal with the NHS which is
Wasting huge amounts of money we need to get immigration down we need to build more houses there’s there’s no end to the problems a lot of people disagree with you though on the tax and spend you know if you look at ugar for example they recently asked people what they
Thought the government should prioritize 57% said funding public services and only 27% said said tax cuts so are you you know there be people shouting at the TV saying you know you’re the guy who you know went for brexit now you’re saying we should have tax cuts look at
The state of Public Services you’re wrong so people are right to identify that public services are not well funded undoubtedly that is true but the problem is not is the problem is growth we’re not able to fund them because the economy is not growing and we’re not
Going to solve that problem by pushing up spending even further we’ve got to get to grips with the fact that the country is living beyond its means in an economy that is not growing and unless we take some difficult decisions to change that we’re just going to continue
On the same path things are going to get worse and worse you know um posters also do those kind of word clouds around politicians where they ask members of the public know what comes into your mind when I say this person’s name and I just wonder if I could do it with you
You know what comes in what word comes into your mind when I say richy sun act to you gosh um prime minister oh come on give us another one an adjective uh conventional he what what we’ve seen is conventional Economic Policy over the last 8 two months and we’ve seen as a
Result the econom is not growing and conservative poll ratings falling and we’ve got to change that uh now i’ got to ask you about the plot okay got to ask you about the plot the non-existent plot the non-exist okay well this isn’t this is your chance to explain what’s
Going on because you helped to organize it I think you’re right I’m right in saying a 40,000 ugab po which forecasts a labor Landslide the group behind the poll is known as the conservative Britain Alliance you know it’s a big expensive poll you then kind of framed
It uh in a particular way uh in the telegraph a conservative supporting paper what was the purpose of the poll the purpose of the poll was to try and bring home to conservatives voters MPS everybody that the polls said what they said that uh this was we were heading
For very very bad election result and a lot of conservative MPS were going to lose their seats and although though this particular poll has attracted a lot of attention obviously nevertheless it isn’t saying anything different from any other poll in fact it’s more favorable to the conservative party than quite a
Few that have come since then we’ve had three polls putting us at 20% and I think um it would be good if the leadership would worry less about the circumstance of the polls and a bit more about what they were saying which is that we’re heading for a very serious
Defeat who paid for it then uh people are allowed to fund polls without having their names been been made public it’s a free country and I intend to respect that the important thing is that the message of the poll says what it says I mean number 10 weren’t very happy with you were
They do they have some cross words some people thre to chat you at the party there’s been I I I don’t think so but there there’s been the odd there’s been the odd sort of crossw un undoubtedly and I think that’s a Pity because what I want to do and I think we
All want to do every body who is involved in politics on the conservative side wants to do is get us to win an election and the way of doing that is to deliver conservative policies you said earlier that this was a party focusing on its core vote well I wish we’re well
Below our core vote now most of our core vote won’t come out and vote for us and that’s the problem um do you think that rich sunak is the man to lead the conservatives into the next election well I I don’t want to get into that actually I’ve never called for Rich
Sunak to be replaced as leader I did in that article that you refer to I’m worried about the policies I I I still believe it is possible to get the right policies in place and change the polling and put us on a better path but we’ve
Got to do it very soon I hope tomorrow and if you could wave your wand and have one pget policy in tomorrow’s budget which one would it be uh something on Net Zero I really think we’ve got to deal with that seriously get energy prices down get manufacturing and
Industry back in this country and start rebuilding the economy uh really interesting to hear from you thank you very much for coming on the program today giving your thoughts ahead of that all important budget tomorrow thank you thank you well with a lot of talk in Westminster about possible Cuts in
Public spending in tomorrow’s budget to pay for cuts to personal taxation I spoke to the man who wants to run the Health Service after the next election the shadow Health secretary West streeting thanks very much for being on the program so what do you want to see in the budget
Tomorrow after 14 years of conservative that’s delivered the highest taxes in 70 years Public Services not just on their knees but on their face I don’t think there are any gimmicks or rabbits out of the hat that Jeremy Hunt can produce to convince us or indeed the country that
The conservatives are capable of delivering the change the country needs not least given so many of those problems were made in Downing Street by successive conservative Prime Ministers and chancellors that’s why as far as we’re concerned a general election can’t come soon enough so instead of this
Phony war that we’re currently all stuck in in Westminster I think it’s time for this unelected prime minister and unelected Chancellor to go to the country and ask for their permission to continue governing and to see who the public judge to be capable of offering the change Britain needs okay I know you
Won an election but the question was about what you want to see in the budget it feels like Jeremy Hunt the chancellor is gearing up for tax cuts that’s what all the briefing is around but the international monary fund says now is not the time for tax cuts they’ve
Advised the chancellor against doing them so what do you think is now the time for tax cuts well we’ve argued consistently that the tax burden on working people is too high that’s why labors in terms of in terms of in terms of in terms of funding our polies thef
Is right well no look you got to look at taxation realm and in terms of funding the and delivering the investment that a labor government wants to provide it’s things like abolishing the non-dom tax status ending the tax breaks enjoyed by private schools a big windfall tax on
The oil and gas giants enjoying record profits closing the tax Loop polls enjoyed by private Equity Fund managers because we think those are fairer ways of making sure we deliver the 2 million more appointments we need to cut an HS waiting list mental health support in every primary and secondary school in
The country doubling the number diagnostic scanners but and and Sophie I think we’re winning the Battle of ideas here I have every expectation that Jeremy Hunt will abolish the non-dom tax status tomorrow in the mother of all u-turns having ridiculed labor for years for advocating uh for this policy I
Think he’s going to do a smash and on some of our policies that’s fine we’re winning the Battle of ideas but in terms of the fundamentals of the economy are the conservatives getting it right absolutely not and look at look at the just look at the numbers in the economy
At the moment and how people are feeling after 14 years I I just want to come in because you know the IMF says now is not the time for tax cuts we’re expecting Jeremy Hunt to take TWP off National Insurance I’m just trying to work out where you are you know would labor
Reverse that would you keep it is a good is it a good time to um lower personal taxes what do you think well we judge the budge in around Rachel re has been clear now for some time about Labor’s industrial strategy about the importance of getting growth back into the economy
Because if the economy had grown under this government just at the rate it did under the last Labor government there would be40 billion pounds more a year to invest in our public services or to put back into people’s pockets to help with the cost of living crisis but that’s 14
Wasted Years we’re looking to the future we’ll judge this budget and around but everyone knows this is AE pre-election budget and Jeremy Hunt Rishi sunak will be keeping everything crossed tomorrow hoping that the public will see the headlines from the budget and think oh well let’s forget about the last 14
Years guys let’s forget about the fact that we’re feeling the pain in our pockets let’s forget the fact that we can’t get a GP appointment that we’re waiting longer for an operation that nothing is working better in this country than it was 14 years ago and I
Don’t think that’s going to work I want to talk about public spending you know it’s public services as you say but I’m just trying to work out where you are on tax ta Cuts personal tax cuts now because that is what we’re expecting from the government 2p off National
Insurance big personal tax cuts does labor support that is that something youd reverse well we’re going to have to judge the budget in the round we’ argued consistently for cuts to people’s personal taxation that’s been the ambition for labor for some time to bring the burden down on working people
Because that’s where the balance has gone wrong and that’s why I say you know we oppose the conservatives when they hiked up Insurance previously and we forced a U-turn before I think we’re winning the Battle of ideas on this idea that personal taxation is too high where
Labor has sought to raise money to fund vital investment in our Public Services we’ve done it through fairer means to the conservatives why is it that rishy sunak was so wedded to the non-dom tax status for so long why is it that so many conservatives have fallen over themselves to defend Labor’s proposals
To generate some income from the wealthiest individuals or corporations at the same time as those same conservative MPS haven’t blinked twice before clobbering working people with higher taxes and I think people would be quite angry actually at this idea that having opposed abolishing the non-dom tax status for so many years when we
Could have delivered 2 million more appointments the year in the NHS as labor would do the conservatives because there’s an election coming around the corner thought quit Lads we better look busy and have something to say to the country they haven’t got any ideas that’s why they’re raiding labers
Cupboards for ideas it feels like it’s quite I get what you’re saying you’re basically saying you think the personal tax burden is too high you’re not committing to reversing it I feel like we can kind of read between the lines about what you think are on that you go
Asked people though what they thought the government should prioritize 57% said Public Services just 27% said tax cuts and I just wonder you know some people might feel that okay you’re trying to avoid a trap of Labor being seen to be you know putting up taxes to be irresponsible with the public
Finances but at the same time are you actually falling into another trap that the conservatives are actually leaving for you because it feels like these tax cuts are going to be funded by completely fantasy public spending figures for whoever wins the next election and feels like you might be
Falling into that track by effectively accepting them no I think quite the opposite actually I think we’ve been winning the Battle of ideas on how to generate wealth in our country and how to invest in public Services responsibly and people can growth is crucial um and the fact
That we haven’t had strong enough growth in the last 14 years is why we’ve got this worst of all worlds where people have never been paying so much and public services have never been able to deliver so little I think that is the tragedy of 14 years of conservative
Failure record high taxes and shocking performance from public services and by the way it’s not the fault of the doctors the nurses the teachers and the Frontline workers the leaders of our Public Services it’s the ultimately it’s the fault of the mismanagement of successive conservative Prime Ministers
And chancellors and look this is the Crux of the argument after 14 years we’ve had every shade of conservative opinion in number 10 as prime minister every shade of conservative opinion in the treasury uh as Chancellor they’ve had their chance they’ve had their time I think it’s time to go to the country
Now and ask them who is best place to deliver the change our country needs after 14 years of conservative failure the arsonist firefighters and the labor party you talk a bit about the NHS there the ifs is saying the NHS is facing the biggest real term cut since
The 1970s would you give the NHS more money well look up where we’ve already set out our spending plans you know abolishing the non-dom tax data so we can would you get the NHS for money you’ve already made yes I mean yes is a short answer because we’ve already made
Those commitments and look if the conservatives do a smash and grab on the non-dom policy tomorrow we’ll have to look at other Alternatives because we are committed to delivering the appointments the NHS needs to cut waiting list to deliver the scanners and Diagnostics so that people get diagnosed
Earlier and seen faster to deliver the mental health support in every primary and secondary school in the country why because not only is that investment important it’s the reform that means if you get to people earlier diagnose faster treat more quickly it’s better for patients it’s also better value for
Taxpayers final question one word answer when’s the election going to be May the 2nd okay thank you very much indeed thank you definite answer we love that on the politics app also pretty interesting to hear where streeting basically admit if the government does opt for Labor’s non-doms policy it could cause them a
Bit of a problem because they have to find money for the NHS elsewhere okay coming up next on the politics Hub well Westminster it’s pretty excited this evening as there is one more sleep until the budget and after the break we’re going to hear from our guests the chair
Of the treasury select committee Harriet Baldwin and the former labor party director of policy Andrew fiser and yet this budget could be a big one not just in terms of the measures but what it tells us about when the government might call the election so we’ll get reaction to that as well Next morning everybody today is all about the economy the chancellor could be a real game changer in the general election will be the pre-election fireworks big setpiece event of budget day of course whether it will be off is the big question some may soon be promised a
Little more money in their pocket as we head towards the election but will these budget giveaways be enough to gain your vote full coverage on Sky News They have breached the road there is lot of gas being fired all around Us it is an absolute Carnival kind of atmosphere out here for prime minister modi’s decisiv these students are finding the prohibitory order and now they’re going to be arrested we aim to be the best and most trusted place for news the roads have been inundated the only way way out is
To get people by boat this on any given day would have been bustling with people but today it’s absolutely deserted I’m Neville Lazarus and I’m Sky reporter based in Delhi Hello welcome back what we’ve heard from Lord Frost and the shadow house secretary West streeting before the break now we can go to our Duo for this evening the conservative MP chair of the treasury select committee har Baldwin and the former head of policy to the labor party under Jeremy Corbin Andrew
Fiser great to have you both on the panel Harry You’ got a big job tomorrow as chair of the treasury select committee you’re one of the first people to respond in Parliament to the budget yeah it goes Chancellor then it goes leader of the opposition and then it
Comes straight to me and so I don’t have any advanced knowledge I have to take very copious notes during uh the budget speech and then the very nice doorkeepers pass the budget documents down to me while the leader of the opposition is speaking and then I have
To get up and make my remarks and you’ve got a bit of experience of responding to budgets as well with Jeremy Corbin as well when he was basically the labor party will have a a kind of room just outside of parliament where they kind of got a team of people which used to
Include me you know kind of going through it um as you hear it trying to rewrite bits of the speech necessarily if you need to and then kind of quickly printing it out and sending a copy down to the chamber which uh has to arrive
Just in before they need to get up and speak so it’s a tightly controlled thing but it’s uh it’s it’s a difficult thing to do to react to it especially if there are as we expect a few rabbits pulled out of the Hat because you’ve got to
Respond to those things as well so to be able to add lib and cut bits out of your speech is quite a a task to do at last minute I hear you I mean it’s a different scenario but because we’ll be here live waiting for it and how will
Come straight to us after he sort of sits down or after you finish your bit but it’s quite good for me because I’ve got like eded cono and Beth rby that I can just go to all their intelligent analysis yes what do you think about
This yeah um so what are you hoping to see tomorrow then well we’ve seen one of the things I was predicting would happen which is that the 5p off the price of petrol has been extended for another year so that was something that uh I’ve been predicting for some time obviously
It was due to expire at the end of this month so I was pretty sure going into an election when you’re trying to keep inflation down you’re not going to add 5p to the price of fuel uh I think that in terms of the context uh for tomorrow
There’s been um some real progress so inflation has fallen from I think when Jeremy hump first became Chancellor it was over 11% now it’s down to 4% and it’s on track to get to 2% later this year so that’s real progress and you’re seeing people’s household incomes uh
Rising faster than inflation now but I think what he will want to do is do some of the um measures in terms of tax reductions that really help households and so one of the things that was so interesting was that um we had uh 2p off the price of national the rate of
National Insurance National Insurance of course is very targeted at people who work and it adds an incentive uh for people to work additional hours real progress has been made do you agree with that no not really I mean look we’re in the longest living standard squeeze in
On record um we’re in recession um people are poorer now than they were in 2008 in real terms um the OB suggested in November that it would take till 2028 to get back to that level so we’re in a really bad State you look at the state of our Public Services they’re
Collapsing around the country whether it’s the NHS um whether it’s councils whether it’s the backlogging courts pretty much everywhere you look is in real Strife um so no I don’t think it work and the National Insurance C if that if that is right the 2p cut gives
£750 to somebody like Jeremy Hunt or an MP and 250 to a newly qualified nurse so it’s not a very well targeted um thing when you look at the facts that we’ve got 600,000 more children in poverty since 2010 Rising levels of infant mortality more children in temporary
Accommodation you know you’d want to Target that through Universal Credit I think rather than with a National Insurance cut to Target those most in need but La didn’t vote against National Insurance cut last time so um you know I’d be I’d be very surprised if there were a cut in National Insurance
Tomorrow that label would oppose it well I don’t think they oppose it because they can’t amend it and say we would have done this instead they can say that in their speech but when it comes to a vote they’ve either got to back it or oppose it to be fair West streeting it
Felt like he was effectively agreeing that you know personal taxes should come down it didn’t sound to me like someone who was about to vot against it yeah no I totally agree with that and and you know don’t let’s forget the context here that we had the pandemic which added 400
Billion to the deficit we had that terrible period where everyone was um paying the much higher energy prices that the help for that added another 90 billion to the deficit so that’s the context that we’re in and so that’s why I would expect that the National
Insurance cut uh tomorrow if we get one um will not offset the effect of some of these Frozen thresholds alt together we got a straight answer from West streeting when I asked him when he thought the date of the election was going to be so I’m going to put it to
You guys as well go on then give us a date when do you reckon the next election’s going to be well I think it could be on the 2nd of May and I think it could be as late as let’s say November so it’s sometime in that period
On you got to give us well well I’ve been working on the Assumption I’m not going to hold know that there was a certainly a probability that it could be on the 2nd of May um and then but it was more likely to be in the second half of
The year which is what the Prime Minister said what you reckon I think it’ll be October I think the conservatives you know tried the trick of cutting National Insurance by 2p in November didn’t work then the polling’s just as bad as it was back in November
They’re going to do it again now it won’t improve the polling they’re not going to go to the polls when they’re 20 points behind and that’s where they are we’ll have to see thank you both very much indeed lovely discussion on the budget and the Dilemma I guess uh with
The chancellor and where he thinks the spending cuts and where the tax risers should fall tax cuts I should say right as the news in the last few minutes that Birmingham city council has voted to approve £300 million in cuts and a 21 percentage rise in council tax over the
Next two years after the council effectively go fust of Public Services in crisis we hear from the General Secretary of the Trade union Congress that’s next E Hello welcome back well in the last few moments her Birmingham Council has voted to approve 300 million pound in cuts and a 21% rise in council tax over the next two years the city council the largest local Authority in Europe had declared itself effectively bankrupt it’s trying to claw its way back to
Solvency well the cuts will hit services from bin collections to social Care Arts and libraries there are also some issues specific to Birmingham Council of course as well including the cost of equal pay compensation settlement that was set to cost the authority over a billion pounds and that had serious implications for
Public services in Birmingham we’re joined Now by The General Secretary of the trades Union Congress Paul Noank thanks for being with you this news just breaking uh there at a time when the government’s talking about cutting taxes people in Birmingham going to be paying an awful
Lot more I think it shows the disconnect doesn’t it between um decisions taken around the cabinet table and the lived experience of millions of people up and down uh the country and I think for the citizens of Birmingham for the people who work for Birmingham city council real concerns concerns that actually
Being replicated in councils right across the country labor councils conservative councils this is what happens when you’ve had cumulatively tens of billion pounds worth of cuts the local Council budgets and it’s not just local councils it’s our our NHS our Criminal Justice System Environmental Protections it’s hard to think of a
Single Public Service in this country that’s better than it was 14 years ago normally I hate doing budget pre-budget interviews because you don’t know what’s going to come in the budget right but we’ve actually got a pretty good idea we know it’s going to be tax cutting budget
We know that there’s going to be this uh 2p reduction uh in National Insurance is now a good time to cut taxes for working people well listen the reality is in the midst of a cost of living crisis any respite for working people it is welcome
But I think the vast majority of the millions of people that we represent will say this is too little too late and it will do nothing to address the underlying pressures faced by families up and down the country more tax CS well no no what I want to see is action to
Grow the economy to Bo boost people’s uh incomes and to repair our Public Services I mean just look at wages in real terms lower than they were now than they were in 2008 that’s unprecedented in our economic history the Chancellor’s got no plan to boost wages no plan to
Tackle the cost of living crisis no plan to grow the economy to repair our Public Services instead I’m afraid what this is is a very cynical budget a pre-election budget with no long-term plan to grow the UK economy it it feels like there is a very live debate about whether now is
The right time to cut tax taxes obviously we all would like to see taxes cut but we’ve seen for example the IMF saying that because of the public finances the state the public finances it’s not a good idea for the chancellor to do it so where do you fall on that
Question well well as I say I think we desperately need to rebuild and repair all public services and I don’t think see how these measures will will help in that way at all I mean there are other things the chancellor could have done around tax um there is a 39 billion
Pound tax Gap in this country between the tax owed and the tax collected now you can’t collect all of that but I think research by tax watch just published recently showed that you could collect 20 billion pounds worth of that tax if you invested in hmrc for every
Pound that you put into hmrc the public gets back £1 15 pound the government isn’t interested in that what they’re interested in is gimmicks uh in the runoff uh to a general election I think the British public won’t be taken by fools by what is a very cynical uh
Pre-election gimmick um we’re looking increasingly at what Labor’s doing because there is a likelihood I might say that by the end of the year it will be K dama in Downing Street so more scrutiny of his plans how do you think labor should respond to this it feels to
Me like they’re sticking pretty close to the government spending and tax commitments well well listen labor going inherit an economic mess uh uh from from this government and they’re going to have to look at the budget uh in the round I’ve just heard where on your program saying that uh if if this
Effectively withdraws the additional support that Labour is going to put into the NHS Labour will have to find money to repair the NHS from somewhere else and indeed to repair and renew our public sector Services uh more broadly I don’t think that anybody expects labor
To wave a magic wand and to fix 14 years of underinvestment in our public services but we’d expect them to sit down with unions and workers to talk about how we solv the Recruitment and Retention crisis in our NHS in education and also to set out that long-term plan
To repair our Public Services I say not one single Public Service better now than it was 14 years ago it’s it’s a dreadful leg Legacy that this government will leave behind if and when they voted out at the next election um West rting was also talk about West rting he was
Pretty clear on when he thinks the elections going to be May the 2nd what’s your date then well I’d love it to be May thei because frankly an election can’t come soon enough for the millions of people that we represent this government has let down quite the
Question though when do you think it’s going to be I I I I I I I’m not a betting man Sophie so I’m going to sit on the S yeah but I just I I want an election to come not for party political reasons but frankly the country can’t
Afford a single day more of this useless government there you go thank you very much inde Paul Novak there of the TU we’re coming up next on the politics H 15 US states will hold primaries today but the outcome of this year’s Super Tuesday is set to be predictable setting
Up a presidential contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden had this one before right rather than were you up for Alaska it’s more of a case did you bother to stay up for Iowa we’re talking super chees day that’s next and coming up on the UK tonight at 8:00
We’ll be live in CLE thorps for a special program tonight we are launching Target towns the constituency of great Grimsby and cleor which will follow throughout this election year is a key seat that both labor and the conservatives will be hoping to win tonight we’ll hear from a panel of
People who live and work here about the most important issues to them find out what they want from West I think that when we’re looking across history that Empires are a fundamental part of our history uh they were the fundamental part of World Order and if we’re thinking about with this within the wider context you know King George III himself in the 1750s argued for uh
The abolition of slavery he argued that it was immoral we know that Queen Victoria for example was incredibly uh kind to the Muslim Community in the United Kingdom and so ultimately when we’re looking through our history it’s very difficult to actually make these specific Arguments for who should be
Paying reparations I’m half Moroccan should the Moroccan Kingdom be paying reparations to Cornish people for for the barbery slave trade is very difficult to actually pin down where these arguments should be lying and actually where this these reparations all these apologies should should be kept King Charles this is the man who is
Obviously head of state head of the Church of England and ultimately decided to commission the first Monarch to commission a report into the royal families links into the slave trade so this is a man who is very much centered around equality right so this is a good
Thing um in terms of who should pay it that’s ultimately your point well it starts with King Charles let’s just be clear um the monarchy advocated and benefited from the slave trade we’re talking 3.4 million people people that were transported from the African continent into the Americas and the
Caribbean 450,000 of which died during the process monarchy advocated and benefited from that we also have the fact that the slave owners were compensated so people like you people like me paid as taxpayers for the slave owners uh uh declaration or agreement that was sorted out 400 years ago in the
Past King Charles is not personally responsible nobody today is personally responsible for the slave trade and I and I hear your point and I hear the fact that you know racism still exists today and many many of the institutional difficulties that we see today stem from these historical grievances thank you
However however nobody today calls the slave trade nobody alive today financially benefits from the slave trade today and so I think it’s incredibly I I think dis disingenuous to actually look at these arguments and and actually say that we can trace back exactly who benefited where benefit no we
Cannot yday hello and welcome back to the politics Hub now happy super Tuesday yes voters in more than a dozen states in the US are heading to the polls in what’s the biggest day of the presidential primaries in this 2024 election cycle now the nominees well we
Know who they’re going to be really don’t we uh barring something literally incredible Joe Biden is going to Face Donald Trump this November in a rerun of the last presidential race both men are in their 80s both have their vulnerabilities so today on a huge day for us democracy we thought we would
Remind you of some of the more news grubbing moment shall I say from just the last few weeks of the two men one of whom is going to be the next leader of the Free World hello Folks taking away this freedom in America is Donald Trump Putin you know has so little respect for Obama that he’s starting to throw around the nuclear war ter you heard that nuclear my memory is fine give me a cognitive test just so we can you know because you know what the standards were
And I aced it all indications are this bill won’t even move forward to to the senate floor why a simple reason Donald Trump is a proud political dissident I am a dissident crooked Joe crooked Joe crooked Joe Biden right we can bring uh back in our DU for tonight’s Harriet Baldwin the chair the try select committee and also Andrew fiser former head of policy to the labor party before I do though have got to issue an onair correction I said that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Were in the 80s Donald Trump of course is 77 and imagine he probably wouldn’t be that happy uh with me uh if I got his and put a couple of too many years on his age speaking as a 39y old I know you know every year counts twice your age
Sopie yeah I’ll take that but still uh right serus chat now what is going on in the states we know what’s going to happen I guess don’t we it’s a rerun yeah it is going to be a rerun and yeah look I think a lot of politicians
In this country would be quite grateful to have two and a half percent growth pretty good record on job creation that Joe Biden’s got um you know a green New Deal that he hasn’t backed down from and you turned on and you know it’s leaved in lots of private investment that has
Created those jobs and that growth so why isn’t he storming it in the polls then if it’s got that great because uh there are a number of Reon I mean one I think the US is really polarized and it’s hard to and their electoral system
Kind of feeds into that as well um but secondly as well there’s a cost of living crisis in the US as well inflation has hit everywhere across the world because of the post-pandemic kind of issues and um the energy price issues that have been caused by Putin invading
Ukraine so they’ve been hit by that as well but if you look at the overall picture they’re doing better than pretty much everywhere in Europe certainly and and you know what we should say is whoever wins the US is our closest Ally our partner in NATO you know we meet
That 2% Target and it’s great to see the progress that’s been made in NATO I on the Parliamentary assembly for NATO and we’ve seen uh the number countries that are making that 2% target has gone up very very dramatically and I think you know we are in a very difficult
Situation here in Europe the terrible invasion of Ukraine and we need to show our strengths and we need to continue with that defense spending Andrew um was giving a a ston offense there of Joe Biden I think I can probably guess your view on Donald Trump what do you make of
The two candidates or are you going to be too diplomatic to say well as I say you know us is our closest Ally know no matter what um I would personally if I were American be on uh Team Nikki Haley just because I would love to see a
Female US president in my lifetime just as I’d love to see a 5050 Parliament here in the UK in my lifetime and it’s International women’s day this week yeah fair enough uh right so we’ve been talking a bit about us politics you mentioned that how polarized it is do
You feel like our po our politics generally is becoming more polarized we see George Galloway for example entering Parliament this week yeah I mean I think you’ve seen it with the conservative party as well I mean Lee Anderson um last year when he was still Deputy chairman of the conservative party
Saying the next election is going to be fought on culture wars and trans issues I mean as if anybody really thinks that’s the biggest priority fa in the country when the economies in the state that’s in the NHS is and all the other things going on I mean it does show that
There’s a a wing of the conservative party I wouldn’t say the whole conservative party to be fair that clearly wants to take us down that kind of trumpian right-wing culture wars kind of route that I think would be incredibly damaging because it all it finds is scapegoats it doesn’t find
Solutions to any of the real problems we face it finds somebody to point out and say it’s all their fault and that’s a very dangerous and divisive route to go down um and I hope British politics can resist that I it’s up to the conservative party what is does I’m the
Last person to advise them on what to do but you know I think when we look at the state we’re in as a country people do want bold Solutions and the danger is if if the mainstream so-called of politics doesn’t offer that and doesn’t correct what’s going on at the moment then
People will look in other places for that solution yeah I think we’re a very grounded democracy the fact that we’re all constituency members of parliament we’ve got our ears very close to the ground we want to deliver for the people who send us to Parliament and I think um
There’s often more in common actually in the chamber than there is that divides us and I think one thing that’s really United us is in making sure that this uh election that we’re about to go into um we do want to make sure it’s really one um where uh those boundaries are
Respected where people recognize that there are limits in terms of you know you should be able to make politic iCal protest but not intimidating or dangerous political protest and also you know the Advent of um artificial intelligence and people you know coming up with avatars that say things that go
Viral on the internet that’s the real challenge is you know you’ve got to you’ve got to make sure that some of those viral things um are really reinforced by the real life conversations on the ground it does feel though doesn’t I mean it’s a very Noble
Aim to kind of try to have a kind of politer politics but I’m bracing myself the next year I’ll be honest until the election I feel like it’s going to be a pretty frenetic fiercely thought campaign and that um you know can spill over into into other areas I think yeah
I think that’s definitely a risk I mean I remember in the last general election there were a couple of times where labor activists were attacked on the street had ribs broken a 70-year-old woman you know and that sort of thing is very dangerous D think of that obviously
There have been threats to MPS there’ve been MPS killed sadly as well but you know I think there is a a kind of frustration with politics that is legitimate by the way that is reflect in what’s going wrong in the country and people are right to be angry about that
It’s it’s making sure that politicians offer a solution to channel I write that in the right way thank you both very much indeed that is it from us tonight but yala hakee on the world is going to have lots more on super Tuesday from 900 p.m. I will see you tomorrow from 11:00
A.m. for the budget Program This is the UK tonight live this evening from CLE thorps tonight we’re launching our Target towns the constituency of great Grimsby and