Committee for the Economy meeting, Wednesday 6 March 2024

The Committee for the Economy met on Wednesday 6 March 2024.

The Committee received an oral and written briefing from Departmental officials on the Utility Regulator (Support for Decarbonisation Preparation) Bill. The Committee also heard from the Northern Ireland Assembly Research and Information Service, who provided Members with an introductory oral briefing as well as an oral briefing on economic context.

And three Parliament buildings we’re good okay stage we’ll move to item number two members which is apologies which we have none we have a full attendance moving to item three Declarations of Interest any members any relevant interests they wish to declare if not I’ll move to item four which is chairperson’s business firstly

Departmental audits in this week’s written answers the minister advises on an audit of child car training Pathways in higher education and further education an audit of energy skills in support of the delivery of the energy strategy and an evaluation of scill up if members are content to write to the

Department seeking the terms of reference to time scale for publication on site of the associated reports as soon as they are available members are content content with that only other item is just to thank each and every member for their contribution at yesterday’s debate I think we had

Contribution from all members of the economy committee um all of whom were speaking with one voice which I think is the best way to approach these issues and I think showed a clear partnership and desire from all members to work together to move forward our economy and ensure that all sections

Of our community benefit from a good economy so from my perspective can I just pay tribute to each and every one of you for your contributions yesterday uh draft minutes then members you’ll see the draft minutes are on a page 644 of their packs from the 28th of February

And I’m asking if members are content that they are a true and accurate reflection of that meeting members are content matters arising does any member wish to raise any matter arising from the minutes of last week if not then we will move to item seven departmental oral briefing on the

Utility regulator Bill we should advise committee that we will now receive an oral and re written briefing from the Department for the economy on the utility regulator support for decarbonization Preparation Bill and refer members to the clerk’s cover note of page 662 I also refer you to page 666 for the

Energy Group brief page 670 for the energy strategy and Page 737 for the utility Regulators annual report good morning how are you thank you good good okay you’re both very welcome Sarah Brady director energy operations department for the economy and Lindsay habart hopefully I pronounced your name correctly perfect

No problem at all energy legislation department for the economy we’re very pleased to welcome you here to the committee and I know the committee look forward to working with you for the remainder of the Mandate if you’re content I’ll hand over to you to give a

Oral briefing and then I’ll open up the members if there’s any questions if you’re content with that approach um first of all uh thank you very much uh to the committee for allowing us to come here today just just to provide you with uh an initial insight into the work that the

Department is currently doing with the utility regulator in respect of their role in protecting energy consumers through energy transition uh my name is Sarah BR has has been said and this is Lindsay hivert my colleague I have 25 years experience in energy mostly with the utility regulator but more laterly as director

Of operations within Energy Group in the department and Lindsay has 12 years experience in energy uh initially with Nia but for the last number of years with the department for the economy um the utility regulator as you probably know is the key independent body it’s the independent economic regulator responsible for uh regulating

The electricity Gas and Water Industries in Northern Ireland and as such it has a key role to play in supporting the department for the economy as we work on energy transition and as we deliver the executives energy strategy the path to Net Zero and also it has a key role to play

In delivering on key climate change act for Northern Ireland 2022 targets the utility regulator is currently slightly hampered in its ability to play its full strategic role that it can’t play and the reason is that its legislation hasn’t been updated to reflect the importance of the climate change act

2022 recent L we have been working with the utility regulator in order to try and identify and understand any gaps that are emerging as we work through and identify the new world we’re moving into and new technologies and we’ve identified a couple of key new and emerging areas

Where we feel the utility regulator has a has a role to play where we need to make CH where we need to break let them in and these include uh offshore Renewables beyond the 12mile mark heat policy Beyond natural gas and Beyond electric eting green hydrogen and new technologies and new system

Services we have identified that any legislative change we bring forward should focus on an inms on the interim to allow the utility regulator to engage immediately in all work relating to what the department needs to do Under the climate change act and it’s in that context that we are coming to the

Committee today to give you an informal preview in a sense to to what’s coming next um which will be a full consultation and then the normal process through the executive and the Assembly of potential legislative change um the consultation that we do will seek views on a legislative solution to providing

The utility regulator with the role in providing advice guidance and support to the department for the economy in relation to our objectives and our duties on the climate change act I hope the written briefing that we’ provided give you gives you some indication and some information and I hope the verbal

Um introduction that I’ve just given provide you with some help and I’m very very happy to answer any questions that you might have perfect thank you very much for that uh when will the consultation open consultation will open as soon as possible it the current draft

Is has gone back to the office of legislative Council for some minor amendments to some of the wording and as soon as that comes back we would plan to to that the consultation goe as soon as possible okay and just run me through again so what will exactly be in this

Legislation so it will be very very short um it will not be it you know it will not go into the specifics of the different types of Technologies for the future what it will simply say is that the utility regulator will have a duty to provide uh assistance advice and

Support where it’s needed to the department in respect of what we need to do for the climate change act 2022 and will the department be seeking accelerated passage on that bill we haven’t decided on that yet do you think you may decide um well depending what comes back

In the consultation if that we we could consider that after the consultation and then just finally for me in terms of um Financial costs associated with the bill in terms of I assume this will increase the um Staffing level at the utility regulator the utility regulator has provided some

Initial estimates they um estimated that over above over and above their existing complement that they would need to F find an additional five staff um they have said that going moving forward into the future it would very much depend on how the technology emerges and potentially more being asked for them

And they’ve noted that they are an independent body they don’t actually answer to the department for the economy and as regards their budget they and their resources they deal directly with the Department of Finance perfect no problem um Philip thank you thanks very much uh me just given that the utility

Regulator Works closely or in partnership with the regulatory body in the South terms of the all Ireland electricity wholesale Market you know what conversations are taking place with regard to this bill with the regulatory authorities in the South and making sure that this is all kind of all Island

Proof with regard to the electricity Market in particular the um the the wholesale Market element of it is slightly different in that um the utility regulator works as part of the Sam committee overseeing the the the wholesale Market uh um and because of that the sem committee has actually

Separately identified and the climate change act has been able to provide advice assistance and support well that those aren’t the exact words but the sem committee is identified in the climate change act already so that can already been be done as regards electricity and the electricity Market okay and then I

Mean the other I suppose important point mean climate Act is is very important for important in terms of saving our planet uh and the drive to towards net zero but from a consumer point of view uh I mean electricity or Energy prices are are rightly important so is there

Anything with regard to the potential of this bill that will ensure that there’s greater control over volatile Energy prices for consumers we’re all we’re all we’ve all seen over the past number of years um the susceptibility of Northern Ireland to fast shift shifts in World Energy prices with the war in Ukraine

And with Co and all the rest of it and that has resulted in in big changes in Energy prices in bills and to Consumers and the whole thrust of energy strategy is to make Northern Ireland um self-sufficient in renewable um affordable renewable energy that we can produce locally and

Therefore break the link with those flu mad fluctuations in in World crisis and help the customer to to to secure affordable and environmentally sustainable long-term energy supplies thank you thank you Mike thank you very much good morning you’re very welcome um as I understand that the the utility regulator takes the place of

Competition yeah and um you’re you’re asking uh for our support because you’ve developed legislative gaps because of emerging issues such as climate change are you giving any thought to this legislation being future proofed so that you wouldn’t have to come back next time there’s a development that that that is the focus

Of the legislation it’s very short and it’s very high level and it is that the utility regulator provide advice assistance and support um where it’s related to our climate change act goals when you get into the specifics and specific Industries or specific Technologies or and any new regulations

That might be needed as Technologies arise in the future well they’ll be dealt with then but the point is the point of this is that the utility regulator can be at the table and can bring their can bring their expertise and bring their brains right from the

Start you know even before you have the detail of of the the exact regulatory framework that you might put in place for a new piece of technology that comes forward in the future so if there is new technology you will still be coming to the committee and we will get an

Opportunity to scrutinize what’s going on that that would be the best governance I would suggest yes that’s exactly right so any any sort of detailed legislation for a particular piece of technology that it emerges that it that we consider necessary to legislate for it’ll be the normal

Process and and when you say this will allow the regulator to have a seat at the table does that not happen at the moment it does happen at the moment but this is um it does happen at the moment but I think what we’re looking at now is

A step change and the level of Engagement that we’re asking the utility regulator for and that going forward it’s much more significant because we’re in such a changing world and what this what this represents is a recognition that it’s a step change okay thank you very much you

M thank you it’s probably just lead on from from Mike’s question so is is the vision that the utility regulator will have an advisory role um cross cutting other departments um and Advising um other departments in relation to to um decarbonization is that is that what you’re saying what this is about what

This is about is about the utility regulator’s role in advising the department the department for the economy yeah if other departments need to bring something forward if they feel they need to bring something forward that might be different but what this is about is about the department of the economy’s role

Now we it the nature of the Net Zero journey is such that it is cross cutting that it is um it is across all the Departments everybody has a role to play transport water INF you know you name it and we do all work together and we do

All come together but it is really focusing on what we need to do in the department and a lot of it is intertwined for example electric vehicles the utility regulator is already in there in the conversations because of its um impact on the electricity grid so you know they they

Already do work but this is a step change in the amount of work that they will be called upon to do and allowing them to make that step change and and then just another small question obviously the the cost impact and it’s in in the report and and the Staffing up

Levels and that um where is the where you getting the money in order to to make sure that the utility regulator has the resources required for for the step change currently the utility regulator has a number of different sources of getting of where they can get um their

Finances from they have told us that they will be able to get it from um license holders who are then funded by customers they are an independent body so that is what they have told us and as that is what they have told us we will

Then then give that to um the department for finance and the utility regulator will deal directly with the Department of Finance and if the utility regulator if if the utility regulator can’t Finance anything from license phase it will then be up to the utility regulator to deal with the Department of

Finance and the department of the economy won’t actually have a role and the utility regulator can then deal with the Department of Finance in terms of its role in ensuring that whatever Resort verus the utility regulator needs it can get and that conversation will be with the utility regulator in the

Department of Finance right and then this is just it’s not on subject but it it is in a way um during the cost of living uh crisis the obviously the price of oil just Skyrocket it there was no regulation in and around that and it

Seemed to be a gap in in in the remit of the utility regulator have you looked at that in any way in relation to the current um legislation um the oh well the whole point of energy strategy is that moving away oil I know oil won’t be there

Anymore oil won’t be there anymore and all of the consumers in Northern Ireland will have access to local sustainable properly priced yeah um energy supplies and that is the journey that we’re on with the utility regulator and that’s why we want them to be but unfortunately the reality is oil is

There and it’s it’s it’s the predominant um energy within my consitency in terms of um hating and yet there’s no regulation around it we we find that and I know I’ve spoken to the utility regular many times about it you know at that point when prices were rocketing it

Was very very difficult to get some control in the system um and to support now we brought many of the the providers um around the table um here um in this building but again without you know that utility regulation um it was a very very difficult uh fight that we were fighting

And it could be something that we could you know maybe future proof but I’m just throwing that out there it’s not in this current legislation I assume okay thank you Podrick just check clear yeah um folks apologies I’m just back from the junior doctor strike

So online this morning um it was just to check with you firstly and to concur um with Shen’s Point as well I think um in our constituency huge numbers of people are are using oil um unfortunately that that does um the fact that it’s unregulated impacts everybody but it

Impacts most profoundly people who are on the lowest incomes um so that’s something that we’ve continuously found um I appreciate obviously the fact that we are now in a stage where where we’re trying to move away from it um but as as Shen has stated the current reality is

That many households are using on um and quite often the households who are in extreme um poverty and who are in fuel acute fuel poverty are using oil as well um I’m looking just at figures last night just around this and I see that it hasn’t dropped below 300 for 500 liters

Since last July I’m just wondering on that is there any um opportunity that that I suppose while we’re trying to phas that out and like you’ve done for gas like you’ve done for electricity is there any plan to cap oil prices or any ability to cap oil prices in that way um

Not at the minute that I’m aware of um within any within my team anyway um we are pretty focused on replacing oil and uh and working with the utility regulator we also work closely with the department for communities in relation to their fuel poverty strategy and we’re

Looking very much at things like um Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency is very much at the Forefront of what we’re doing we put an extra million pound HS into the NP the Northern Ireland sustainable energy program we’re hoping that we can put more in to make homes all across Northern Ireland as Energy

Efficiency as as energy efficient as possible so that if you are on oil you’re at the very least you’re losing you’re using less off it and that saves you money and that saves you money for as long as you’ve got the the Energy Efficiency measure in your house so that

That’s really the focus on on using less off it yeah no that toally agree with that um and and appreciate appreciate that but would there be an ability um I suppose theoretically um to amend this and they introduce a cap oil because it is still a predominant um use certainly from my

Constituency this this this what we’re working on now is is purely about providing advice assistance and support it’s not about the utility regulator regulating or taking decisions in any of the new Industries it’s about them having a seat at the table and engaging and providing advice assistance and support so what that advice

Assistance and support will look like the utility regulator an independent body and you know it’ll be up to them what they want to bring for what you know yeah we we will be asking them for advice and then they will be coming forward and what that advice looks like

Will be they’re an independent body and it will be their independence okay yeah no thank you for that um just a second question shair um and it’s just a quick one around paper bills um so quite we’ve got quite a number of elderly constituents who have contacted us really around the fact that

Most payments and most accounts now are online um and just a check around the fact that some some uh people are obviously still preferring um paper bills would you be able to confirm if there is any companies which you’re aware of uh who there’s price difference

When people are going for paper bill um rather than for an online bill I know that the utility regulator has a billing code of practice so that all Supply license holders um have to comply with the utility regulator’s billing code of practice um I think the utility regulator are up separately and they

Might be able to provide more detail than me on the exact nature and content of the billing Code Practice that’s great I’ll certainly ask him that and thanks for your answers today thank you thanks padrick s thank you chair um thank you so much for for coming this morning I suppose in terms

Of just trying to step it back way but this is about enabling legislative change to allow a bigger voice in terms of going forward of meeting the climate targets from the ‘s perspective is that right yeah yeah so that’s obviously with thec at the minute as you have said um in

Terms of actually getting this done how essential do you think this is to lock this legislative change down now to enable us to do that job of work so that we can actually um have delivery of first climate budgets the utility regulator is an essential strategic partner and allowing them

To to to make a step change in the level of Engagement that they’ve current so far been able to to do we think is vitally important in all sorts of areas particularly the ones I’ve mentioned MH so you if you’ve said step Chang a number of times in the Staffing

Levels Shen and I think Mike have already talked about the money and then there was a conversation about do and how that would work if they couldn’t generate the money from the license holders so if that situation does come to pass um did I pick that up correctly

That DFA don’t actually have a role there that’s up to the utility regulator in their own right to go to do to try and make the case should they not be able to raise that money that’s correct the the department of the economy um the utility regulator is an independent body

MH um they answer directly to the assembly the department for the economy don’t have a role in setting the utility regulator budget at all um if the utility regulator needs extra money and when the utility regulator sets its budget it goes to for to the department for finance so in terms of answering

Questions as to how how this step changed will be financed that will be um for the utility regulator and the Department of Finance do we have side of that yet um as I say the U regulator has provided an initial estimate um of an additional five full-time employees um

On top of their existing complement that they have today uh after that it will very much depend on the new and emerging technology and what that turns out to be so are we thinking that there could be a situation where actually it requires more than that five then should

There be a much quicker pace and and a wider if it if it requires if it requires more than that it will be for the utility regulator as an independent body to go to the Department of Finance and agree their budget with the Department of Finance and agree with the Department of

Finance that they’re able to fund it and the department of the economy won’t have a role in how the utility regulator funds its activity okay just one last one as well um when do you think we’ll be seeing a wider Energy bill um we have

Been doing a lot of work across a number of areas including the ones that I that I read today and our current thinking is that we should use existing regulations and existing legislation where we can um secondary legislation or secondary uh regulations where we can

And we can do them quickly and um when we look forward rather than having a big all sing and all dance and hold everything until it’s in a full Energy bill with everything in it we should take things in bite-sized chunks and bring them forward as and when they’re

Needed to be brought forward so for example we might bring we might we might bring things forward at different stages which is what we’re doing now in order to bring the utility regulator in early so it could rather than like an Omnibus Bill you’re saying it could be just as

And when in order to try and reflect the urgency of us probably having a chance to meet yes ground okay thank you David thank you chair and thank you for coming uh down to us I just want to go back a little bit and tease something

Out and this is so I’m kinding you into this brief as well so I’m just getting my own head around the energy piece which isn’t isn’t my background but whenever I look at or was reading through and you looked at I’m just trying to teach out the role of the of

The of the regulator but you looked at the the there’s a remarkable differential between poverty rates across the UK and if you look is is that to do and there’s and between fuel poverty rates within the UK within the UK and it it my

My interest is it to do is that to do with how that those are calculated or is this back to oil for um well there are there are three elements to fuel poverty one’s the Energy Efficiency raing of the property you live in and how much energy you actually

Have to buy to be warm one is the price you pay for the energy you’re using and the other one is your income and all three of those elements go into determining whether or not you’re in fuel poverty and that’s very important and the utility regulator uh the utility regulator currently the utility

Regulator primary duty is to protect consumers and it does so protect consumers in electricity and gas and water and it does so by pursu pursuing um its duties in such a way as it has has due regard for a number of secondary duties one of those secondary duties is

To have due regard for vulnerable consumers another one of those secondary duties when it’s doing um its job and doing its duties is to have due regard for secure affordable reliable long-term energy supplies that are environmentally sustainable and environmentally sustainable takes account of low carbon um how the utility regulator balances

And does that is is a it’s an independent body it’s a for itself I guess but um it is a a partnership approach we work with the department for communities the department for communities have a really big role to play in in the journey to Net Zero and

They have their fuel they work on their fuel poverty strategy and that’s a partnership approach as well okay so so the three elements that that’s really um good to understand that so the three elements are basically salary the building um or the the and and uh from

In the middle of the cost of the of the product but if you if you uh how how does that then explain the poverty rate is lower in Northern Ireland than the rest of the UK the the rates no not fuel poverty but poverty as a whole is

Poverty rate so poverty if you if you Google and look through poverty rates in Northern Ireland poverty rates are shown as lower I don’t believe it but that’s the the the stats that we’re seeing yet fuel poverty rates are almost double in in parts of the UK and I don’t I don’t get

How that I understand our our salaries are lower and I understand um I I I am aware that there have been changes made elsewhere to the measurement and the way the fuel poverty is measured I can’t tell you the answer off hand if that’s the reason okay I can go away and look

At it and talk to the department for communities and come back to you with a fuller answer if that’s okay yeah 100% um I do know that there have been various attempts to look at the way fuel poverty measur measured across uh um and I I know it’s different in different

Areas but if it’s okay I’ll go away and talk to the department for communities and come back with a filler answer for you yeah no that’s great and just just to finish off no it’s just whenever I read through it was just fascinated figures and I started looking at figures

Going this this doesn’t seem to to to add up and there there there’s um you know that it could be just the differential of how things are measured in different areas but you said just you PR having to go as well with um Podrick and you said it was about Vice and

Support if if that’s the case for the regular what’s what is the um or exactly how does the the regular intersect then with the consumer Council and how what is the are people aware of the differences there or what is you know if it’s advice and support what is the

Consumer council’s role and what is how does that work I think I think it’s um about different levels of expertise and involvement and balance I mean the util the consumer council is there to speak for the consumer’s voice and the utility Regulators that there to protect the consumer um but the utility regulator

Has this range of other things that it has to do and it has to balance for example it has to make sure that the license holders can Finance the activities that they’re they’re licensed to do and that they can they can niie for example ni networks can Finance

Running the the energy system and the utility regulator will have expertise and price controls and things like that which the consumer Council won’t have the utility uh the you you the consumer Council will be looking at it purely from the consumer’s point of view and the utility regulator will be looking at

This whole balance and the financing and the vulnerable customers and the lot and how the utility regulator balances all of those different various things that it has to have due regard for in the pursuit of its primary objectives is um it is an independent body and it is a

Matter for for for the utility Regulators board to take decisions on um and how it how it how it balances for example the need to have due regard for vulnerable customers with the need to have due regard for secure reliable and environmentally sustainable energy supplies and the need to have due regard

For license holders abilities to finance their activities it’s a matter of utility regulator skill that’s what it’s that’s what it that’s that’s the technological skill that the utility regulator bring to it yeah no thank you that’s brilliant thanks David G thanks chair um is suppos just to follow on

Obviously this bill is very much a bridging of the Gap effectively in terms of some of the U new emergeny technologies and the advice and support that the utility regulator can and should provide uh and I was interested just in terms of your comments in terms

Of The Wider Energy bill in terms of how that you see that been brought forward in terms of bite size chunks opposed to one over our chain B the um so this particular bill that’s going forward do you envisage and there’s a consultation we don’t know yet when that’s going to

Happen it’s going to happen soon do you envisage then that there will be learning from this in terms of when the wider package comes forward uh there will be learning but also in terms of where there be gaps the utility regulator is useful in terms of holding various organizations to account

As well and almost calling out some of the the feelings Etc additional pows is that something which will ultimately come as well in terms of obviously there’s a vicent support is there any additional pows did you invisage coming in the back of this well ultimately um for example when the

Uh heat um when when a regulatory regime for heat is is is ready and brought forward we would en we would envisage the utility regulator having a role um legislation brought forward um through Westminster already envisages that the utility regulator will have a role but the datail you know we will have a

Consultation on that and have the detail of the utility will work out the detail of the utility regulator’s role in areas such as hate and how that regulation will work and then that will that will form part of later things that we bring back to the to the committee as and when

They’re ready as when we’ve had our consultations on our due process and we’ve got that detail written down okay and apologies for my Navy in this regard but in terms of the actual powers of the utility regulator in terms of the save for the northern irand assembly and the

Impact that obviously we could have in terms of Etc as a committee you what level is that for us here as an assembly sorry in terms of the the the powers and additional powers that you know potentially the utility regulator could have you know who where does it come

From the powers that the utility regulator have are all WR in the statutes So currently the the pars that the utility regulator has um in electricity and gas are contained in the energy order for Northern Ireland the pars that the utility regulator has in water are are contained in the water and

Seage order for Northern Ireland and the decisions that they make and the the framework within they take their decisions are are laid out in those and as I’ve said they’ve got they’ve got a primary Duty in electricity to protect consumers and they they they will balance present consumers and and future

Consumers and then within the pursuit of that primary Duty they will have a range of other things they have to have due regard for and they will answer directly to the assembly they they they they don’t answer to the Department of the economy they answer they’re an independent body they answer

Directly to the assembly for how they use those powers under the gas order and under the electricity order under the energy order under the water and seage order you know various different pieces of legislation that provide you with a role they will come and they will answer directly for themselves thank you then

Just finally from my perspective so the climate Act is obviously cross cutting and requires action from all government departments this legislation only enables the utility regulator to provide advice guidance to the department for the economy why not all government departments surely they have an important they all have an important

Role to play in that and the more cross cutting action that we have and I think we all agree in this Committee of the urgency to do that but if the department for the economy is the only Department enabled to discuss with the utility regulator get advice surely that

Hamstrings other departments well we as the department of the economy work in partnership with all the other departments and when it comes to things like uh heat and electric vehicles for example the utility regulator’s role in regula in the electricity industry the electricity Network and they will come

And give us their advice and you know the utility regulator as it deals with all the other departments I guess um it’ll speak to the other departments for itself but how it’s currently working is that we speak to them and they can speak to other departments themselves but the

Step change really is with us and that’s why we brought it Forward well that that that’s the that that’s the work that we’ve identified with the utility regulator and would your view then be would be for other departments to bring forward their own legislation if they wish to get that advice guidance Etc

From the utility regulator do a matter for them I I I would say yeah it’s just you know we’re always conscious of Silo work and government departments all focusing on their own particular issue and a lack of partnership approach but as you say you can only speak for your

Department so no totally understand that I know the committee will obviously be ke to hear directly from the utility regulator although the department doesn’t have a reporting role with the utility regulator obviously if this Bell is approved there will be Financial consequences for Bell payers across Northern Ireland so I think the

Committee will want to be uh sure of the action it takes before we pass on additional costs to our consumers and ultimately our con uh but with that can I thank you so much for your attendance here I’m um and we will be in touch yeah yeah no no problem

Next up the normal legislative process then and um obviously being in contact with all the other departments and going through the normal process including the Department of Finance and then they’ll speak directly to the utility regulator about resourcing okay that’s perfect thank you both so much indeed

Members thank you for that clerk is there any actions we need to summarize committee not so chair if I’ve understood correctly I think the committee wants to hear from the utility regulator and schedule a written an oral briefing um does the committee also want to write to the utility regulator

Actually about paper bills the question that came from Mr delari and then also to the department about fuel poverty and poverty rates comparing Northern Ireland with the rest of the UK though that might be via uh department for communities um um and is it the case the

Committee can play this anyway you can wait for the consultation and make your comments then or the committee could write to the department in the terms that the uh the chair just said out there about um suggesting maybe that the vires in question should be extended to

Promote the path to Net Zero across all departments not just the department for the economy yeah I think that that was a point very me well made by by Philip and I was trying to get through it myself with the cross cuton aspect of it um I I

I just don’t see the logic in it maybe you know I’m missing something but I just don’t understand because it is so essential to the working within every department now because you know decarbonization and the climate change act goes right through every single Department I think chair I I agree with

SH I think you were absolutely spot on there and obviously I’m jumping the gun here slightly because we will meet with the utility regulator but I was just also sort of Gary had brought this in as well about in terms of you know how it’s actually funded and the role of do and

The fact that you know could there be a potential problem down the line with funding from the license holders and given the budgetary constraints that we have across all departments um where does that sit then given what you’ve just said shate about the cross cut

Nature of it so yeah I think it would be worthwhile to understand just a we bit more about not only the varas but also the the the financing of it as well M can that approach chair as well just on what poric and and I raised um

Oil I know it’s a different conversation at different time this is but it is re it it is a real problem particularly when we had the escalation of fuel prices and there was just no regulation there and you know there there’s kind of a monopoly nearly in an around oil as

Well so they forc their own prices at well that might be but there is you know there there’s a number of key players there you know can we maybe tease that out as well and ask some questions in and around that utility regulator M uh

CH just as a member I’m sure knows well the minister in assem written questions indicated he has no plans to regulate the oil industry but you can ask utility regulator what the ins and outs of that or yes that’s agree chair person yes okay members are all content with that

Okay thank you very much moving then to item eight assembly research introductory brief the committee will now receive an oral and written introductory brief from the assembly research team uh I’m delighted to welcome Eileen rean senior research officer and Chris Rothwell research officer um who will kindly provide us

With a presentation AR are you going first or maybe you doing the all if it is okay I would go first chair sorry chair I think we’re having a technical oh here we go take out this plug yep y this is the switch it off and on again here we

Go give it a thump no don’t we tested it before and it was fine okay we did honestly test this this morning and it was fine here we go should be okay now fun and games there we go okay it’s all in the the order of which we turn on the

Plugs we’ll become more accustomed so apologies um thank you chair for having us here today I’m here to speak to you very briefly about what the research and information service of the assembly does there’s a lot of familiar faces around the table and it’s very nice to be back

Um I’m joined here with my colleague Chris Rothwell who’s going to speak to you about an economic overview uh briefing paper so some and forgive us because some of you are more or less familiar with ourselves so I’m going to just quickly rattle through what is raised the work of the

Library the work of the research service and then looking at some other raise initiatives that we do um the assembly Secretariat structure you’ll all be very familiar with as you can see on the screen there we’re in the lower right hand corner the research and information service we sit within the legal

Governance and Research Services directorate um Ray structure its organizational structure is up there on the screen for you um on the left side you can see there’s library and then as you move to the middle of the screen to the right are all the research teams um there’s

Four research there’s there there are there were four research teams but now we’re moving to five because there’s been a bit of reorganization internally um John power is the head of research and myself and and the people you see named on the screen are the senior researchers and they’re responsible for

The team the research team’s library but also there’s a new unit the knowledge exchange unit that’s emerged okay we have about approximately including management and staff 41 people um so raay we’re here to provide confidential independent objective accurate evidence informed and nonpartisan research and information products and we do that we provide the

Mlas in their plary capacity in their committee capacity as well as in their constituency capacity in addition to that we have other users which may be the um commission the assembly commission itself and there may be other like senior Secretariat that we come involved with in supporting we would

Work very regularly with our colleagues in the bill office as well as an engagement Education Service um across the board and obviously with our clarking colleagues regularly um our role hopefully helps yourselves in your committee capacity as well as in your two other capacities to meet your unique research and information needs so

What this infographic is is really just to try and tease out all that’s expected of an MLA not an easy task and in the current context extremely challenging with the Public Finance battles that we face as well as the fact that we’ve had two extended periods of interrupted de

Ution so that’s just trying to that slide is actually used when I go out to academics to try and tease out for them the various bits that they can influence so assembly Library feel free to drop in the inquiry desk it’s just few doors down as you go through the double doors

I’m sure many of you are familiar with it there’s vast resources there and people are very happy to dig out information when you need it and if it’s something that goes beyond an information request um they will uh liaz with their research colleagues and um

It’ll just go to the right team so that you can get the um the right service and hopefully that the service is timely as well um so we encourage you to engage with them something else to be aware of um screen’s back is the inquiry service that I mentioned there where you can

Bring your queries um be aware that there’s information packs that do go out to the members and they’re available on assists through the library and a link I understand is to the pack is emailed directly to mlas um usually two Fridays before the debate so these packs obviously concern private members

Motions and selected committee motions they can be really rich resource of information um just to note they aren’t available to members of the public because there are copyri related reasons for us not being able to do that um and they cover the gamut of information that is relevant and available for you to

Consider the you know the issue before you concerning the motion um encourage you to look at the raised web pages um and also on the uh cyst as well they’re largely the same and you can see the variety of services we offer so the research service on this slide you can

See the range of services there’s analytical briefings there’s Bill papers there statistical analysis mapping analysis so that you can see the geog graic distribution of certain data across the jurisdiction of Northern Ireland in addition to that we occasionally identify expert um external Witnesses less so in recent years um

Specialist advisors may change going forward um there’s commentary service and more recently there’s been um some very serious efforts made in the area of Public Finance scrutiny workshops that we’ve developed and we’re actually rolling out at the moment there’s a five module series some of of you will have

Attended it already within certain committees um the chair I know has attended in finance in addition to that to enable and support the Committees to better interrogate and exercise their advisory and scrutiny capacities we do have um an online departmental Financial forecasting dashboard and that takes the departmental outturn and for forecast

Outturn data and try and give another evidence base to the committees to really look at the um Public Finance decisions um throughout the budget cycle it’s four distinct um stages during the formulation during the approval stage of the budget during the execution as well as during audit um we

Also have some economic scrutiny workshops chair that I understand the committee has commissioned and will be delivered in um the near future to yourselves and we also have um a program on academic engagement some of you may be familiar with a knowledge exchange seminar series and it includes a range

Of activities that we do in the area of knowledge exchange to support the members in their three capacities so I identified a few types of products there on this slide in relation to the bill papers the re um review of costings so that there’s some kind of understanding of the financial

Implications of bills where they be executive or private members bills there’s research papers are more of like a deep dive in an area we do oral presentations like you’ll see today Chris doing on an area that is of interest to the committee the workshops I mentioned earlier and then there’s a

Range of other products online um our blog which does um thematic articles of interest to mlas um and as well their’s constituency profile so we do encourage you to have a look around um as well as your staff and your parties to encourage them most of our work um is coming from

The individual mlas and the Committees um if you would like to make library and research requests um you can go through the inquiry desk that I mentioned earlier you can go through committee officials um your staff as well ml come to us directly um never

Hesitate to talk to us when you see us as you become more familiar with our faces just to note we don’t provide written speeches for the mlas or for the Committees and um we don’t our outputs obviously aren’t based on political opinion political Association or opinion it’s all evidence informed um we don’t

Do policy proposals and we don’t do lines of questioning however we do scrutiny points um which arise up out of the evidence that we point to when we produce our briefings um just a reassurance that we don’t disclose who the customer is um it’s always confidential unless it’s otherwise

Agrees with the customer okay um just these are just given examples of the types of things that we do and the presentations we give we encourage you to look at our um sources online because there’s a lot more being done with online D dashboards and infographics that basically provide you with a better

Evidence base I mentioned the blog to you the workshop series infographics that we’re doing online dashboards constituency profiles and can you have these slides if you would like to look at them um and one thing to highlight is in relation to the knowledge exchange unit the whole purpose of um work in

This area is about promoting evidence L policy and lawmaking in Northern Ireland and we want to nurture and applied research culture in the north um Northern Ireland um we had cess in the past we haven’t been able to run C the knowledge exchange seminar series because we haven’t had a program for

Government and we haven’t been running so we’re very hopeful that we will get cess up and running it’s um for those that may be less familiar cess is a unique Partnership of all the five higher education institutions in Northern Ireland there’s no such thing across um the European Union and Europe

Um and it was very successful when it ran and as people may be aware it Partners the University’s raise and the committee system so the chair of the committee um that is um comes along and provides opening remarks where the seminar is most relevant to that committee’s remit um Mr Nesbit very

Kindly helped us out many of times giving the opening remarks at Kess in the past um and several other mlas did as well we do capacity building workshops with academics so that we’re getting more fit forp purpose policy briefings coming from the academic Community we need more applied research

So we have more evidenced informed um policy and lawmaking and there’s very ious other initiatives in and around the knowledge exchange one last thing to note is we’re very pleased we have United Kingdom research and Innovation funded internships um so it means we’re able to bring people in from the um the higher

Education institutions to try and bridge the gap between Academia and the legislature um and more recently we’ve actually received research Council funding so that we can have a dedicated person in the research service again to try and bridge the gap so keep an eye out there’ll be more things coming on

That front thank you Chris I’ll just bring up Chris’s paper here maybe at this point just see if you’re happy if anyone has any questions e if that’s possible Phil not really a question for E we’ll move more for yourself chair I mean the presentation’s very interesting the slides are very

Interesting is it possible that we could get the the slides email separately from the pack so we can see them rather than having to ever always look through the pack if we need that can I just that’s not a question but just to say thanks to the teamman

There um in in the the service is absolutely first class and we’ve never found it wanting at all in in my office and and we’ve worked very closely with them many times thank you thank you very much and thank you for that can I just ask and I welcome the partnership that

You have with the higher ucation sector particularly with C but as an economy committee we’re always Keen to also fly the flag for our fa sector too and I’m sure you do work with them um but I’m just wondering have you looked at doing a Partners a similar partnership that we

Have with our universities and higher educational institutions but also with our Fe colleges too it’s interesting that you raised that and that would be something that we would like to think about in future um with the recent um knowledge exchange post that’s funded by

Ukr I a part of that is looking at how you bridge better with the universities and the university colleges in the north but that’s the next piece of the puzzle um because fees what’s coming out of sees has changed enormously since cess first formed in 2011 so we’re hopeful that we can pursue

That going forward thank you thank you okay thank you chair um I’m not sure I can put this uh paper on the screens but um if the if you’re okay I can I can still talk to the paper um in the pack um I think it’s page

31 um so yes thank you I’m happy to be here and um I’d just like to briefly talk to you through this paper um that you have on your pack it’s an economic overview of Northern Ireland and it covers two broad kind of uh categories so there’s some context at the start of

The paper just around uh the work of the committee in the previous mandate and also some uh policies of the department but the two main sections of the paper I’m going to focus on are positives uh so areas that Northern Ireland’s economy has performed or is performing uh quite

Well in but also some challenges too um so some immediate challenges but also some longer term ones some longer term issues as well so uh we’ll start with the positives um these all draw on the most recently available data as of last Friday um so so the positives for the

Northern irland economy cover things like headline economic growth um over the last 25 years um a number of labor market indicators and the headline uh trades balance as well so if I start with economic growth um at figure one in the paper um you’ll see that Northern Ireland’s economy has grown 38% since

1998 in real terms um in real terms because that removes any effects of inflation or or Price Rises over over that time so it’s broadly kept pace with other parts of uh the United Kingdom other devolved administrations and and the UK um average they’ve all been around 30 40% as well in that

Time um in terms in terms of labor market indicators so total employment has recovered quite well since uh the pandemic um you’ll see in figure two that total employment is almost at its pre pandemic levels again although that headline figure does uh kind of mask some underlying Trends as well so um

Total employment is made up of employee jobs but also self-employment so if we were to look justed employee jobs um as you’ll see in figure three that’s actually up quite a lot since uh since the pandemic um by around 25,000 um and yet total employment is still slightly below it it’s pre-co

Level um and why that is is that the level of self-employed has actually Fallen um quite a lot it’s it’s more than offset the increase in employee jobs during that time in terms of unemployment so unemployment rates are actually very very low at the moment in Northern

Ireland um close to Historic lows so it’s around 2.6% at the minute uh compared to just over 4% in the UK and that’s a good thing um but it is also a consequence of the fact that there’s very high economic inactivity in Northern Ireland so um the labor market

Here is divided into two sort of main groups there’s economically active which includes people who are employed and unemployed and there’s economically inactive so a change a low you know a decrease in unemployment might not necessarily mean an increase in employment it may mean the people have left the labor force altogether and

Become econ economically inactive uh and that is the case in Northern Ireland quite a lot of the time which I will touch on uh shortly in terms of overall trades performance um exports are now at a record high of just over 13 billion pounds which gives a surplus of around 3

And a half billion so that’s the the difference in exports over Imports of that 13 billion um in exports around 10 of that the majority of that is in Goods um and the rest is in services okay so the paper then moves on to talk about the some of the challenges facing

The economy so some of the shorter term uh more immediate pressures but also longer term issues as well so um the first one we address is inflation so the most common measure of inflation that we use is CPI Consumer Price Index so that takes um around 700 Goods what’s called

A basket of goods um and looks at their the average increase in their price over period of time um a year um and whatever that percentage increase is over the year then that’s the inflation so if something that average price was 100 pound this time last year on 103 pound

Today um the inflation rate is 3% um and that’s been very high over the last 18 months and peaked um at over 11% in October 2022 which is very high for um in in recent uh context so it has fallen again um continues to fall it’s

Not 4% but that is still slightly higher than the 2% Target that the bank of England that most other central banks have um set as a target for inflation um you can see in figure six of the paper um there are different components different contributors to that um level of inflation so most

Recently uh you’ll see the biggest contributors are things like restaurants and hotels food and drink and Recreation and culture so the the contributions to inflation obviously change over time so if you looked at it uh say a year ago energy would have been the biggest one uh most likely um energy

Costs there are other measures of inflation uh aside from CPI so there’s a a measure called core inflation which takes out some of the more uh volatile elements so things like energy food and drink and alcohol and tobacco um it’s remained slightly higher um it’s taken a

Little bit longer to come down but it is it is coming down um and it’s currently just around 5% now and um and also just it is worth noting as well that inflation is a measure of the rate the price is increasing so if say inflation is falling from 5% to

4% uh it doesn’t mean it’s prices are falling it just means they’re still Rising but just slightly slower okay so in terms of then some of the more uh longterm economic issues um and economic challenges that we’re facing uh we’ll move on to economic inactivity

Um this is a very long running issue um you’ll see in the chart uh there’s a big gap between Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom average um that chart goes back to 20 if the chart went back further the trend would look the same the Gap would still be pretty big um so

It’s around 27% in northern irelands versus around 20% uh in the United Kingdom and that means that 27% of our economically active population um people between 16 and 64 years old are classed as economically active so not employed or unemployed um so why is it so High um there are different categories of

Inactivity and different reasons for inactivity so it can be things like uh people who are retired students people who are uh caring for family members or it can be because of long-term sickness or disability and if you look at the percentage of in activity that is accounted for by students in retirement

It’s actually quite similar in Northern Ireland uh to the United Kingdom it’s the category of long-term sickness and disability that’s actually quite a bit higher in Northern Ireland than it is elsewhere so it’s around 40 41% in Northern Ireland it’s around 30% in the United Kingdom um and it’s that category

That uh accounts for a lot of the difference between the UK and Northern Ireland okay so another long-term issue for Northern Ireland’s economy another challenge is productivity um and the Gap to other places so we’ve looked at the Gap to the United Kingdom there’s different measures of productivity um whichever one of them

You look at there is a gap um but probably the most straightforward one to look at as an example is GDP per job so if you had two economies with the same Workforce size of Workforce same number of employees but one was more productive um the economy in that uh

Country is going to be bigger it’s going to have more GDP um for every job that it has um so in Northern Ireland the reason for that Gap um in GDP per job to the UK and other parts of the UK is really a combination of two things so it can be U

Down to the mixture of what sort of what sort of economic activity in sectors we have in the economy so it might be more Reliance on some lower productivity sectors relative to other places but it also may be due to differences within sectors themselves so say if you take um

Hypothetically it in Northern land the productivity within it in Northern Ireland may be lower than the productivity in it in other places like the United Kingdom so it’s a combination of what sectors we have and the productivity within those sectors too um okay and that can be you know there

Can be a variety of different reasons for differences in uh productivity within sectors too so it could be you know differences in management performance uh a lack of investment in things like skills or machinery equipment um there’s a number of different number of different reasons

Um if we look next at Labor Supply this is another uh long-term challenge or potentially long-term challenge so if we look at our labor Supply um our potential Workforce is essentially our population that’s between 16 and 64 um and our labor Supply essentially can be we’ve got an internal one and an

External one so we’ve got our internal work uh potential Workforce or working age population and our external one is uh essentially migrants uh working migrants coming to Northern Ireland um and for labor Supply to keep peace with a growing economy and with increased employment um you need to rely on those

Two sources of your of your Workforce your potential Workforce so the reason this is listed as a challenge is that the first of those the internal labor Supply um your working age population is not really growing anymore um and it’s probably going to contract actually it’s projected to contract from around 20 30

Onwards and that’s just a consequence of uh an aging population that means then that you have you potentially more Reliance then on an external labor Supply um so migration um inward migration slightly lower in recent years um it’s hard to say what the projection of it’s going to

Be but um if it were to follow the same Trend and to not grow as much or to decline then that would result in a a pretty big limitation on the capacity of the economy to grow then if you’ve got limited internal labor Supply growth and limited external labor Supply growth to

Provides um labor for um growing employment and then finally in terms of inclusion so this is the last of the challenges that we’ve looked at in the paper um and inclusion really is the extent to which economic opportunities are fairly distributed in our society so we’ve used a couple as an example um

Disability and deprivation so if you look at employment rates for um disabled people in Northern Ireland versus uh people who aren’t disabled uh there’s a big gap you can see in figure 12 of the paper um employment rates for people who are disabled here are just 37.3%

Um and that’s not that’s much much bigger Gap than it is in other parts of the UK so that’s not just a a common Trend within the UK it’s it’s a much bigger difference here than is elsewhere so if we if we were able to make improvements here or narrow or

Close that Gap uh or certainly close it slightly um that would have obviously economic benefits aside from uh Social and Health benefits too another example uh another metric is the difference in employment rates then between some of Northern Ireland’s most deprived areas and some of its least deprived areas again there’s a big

Difference um you can see in figure 13 of the paper um employment rates for least deprived areas Northern Ireland are around 78% they’re just over 56% in the least deprived areas again that’s quite a big difference so um we’ve done sort of some illustrative examples in the paper of

What it would look like for the economy and the workforce if you were to narrow the Gap slightly or just even half it um but again you can see that um you know if you could certainly narrow that Gap at all it would have um significant economic and social uh benefits to the

Economy okay so um I don’t want to strike too negative a tone by going through so many challenges but um you know that that kind of runs out the two main sections of the paper um there certainly are a number of different you know a number of

Positives um that are worth noting for the economy um I haven’t listed them all um but that hopefully uh covers some of the major ones um in where the economy is doing well but also some of the sort of shorter term and longer term challenges that we’re facing so thank

You um happy to take any questions if you thank you for that that was very useful indeed I’ll start with Podrick thank you um and look thank you both for the presentation and just Echo what was said already I’ve always find um you know any time that either myself

Or anybody in the office have used the service as really really uh useful um and really helpful so so thank you for that um just in terms of questions and I was hoping to touch on on two distinct areas firstly on inflation um and then on the employment rates as well just

Just around inflation it’s been really useful to to already hear um some of those statistics as well um what are then the projected um what is the projection for inflation by the end of of this year um and then in terms of what we can expect to fall um you know

What’s coming first that is is it going to be food is it going to be utilities is it going to be fuel what are the projections in then around that um okay so in terms of the projection for the the headline rate um I think the most recent

Projection from the bank of England there the bank of England managed the interest rate and um have overall responsibility for trying to control inflation and bring it down they had recently talked about trying to bring it down to 2% it’s 2% Target this year I think the latest is that that’s now

Probably more likely next year um into 2025 that projection changes every month so um it’s based on what’s happened most recently so uh um the rate that it’s at is 4% at the minute it’s it was 4% the month before as well so the last four or

Five months it’s been on a fairly steady downward Trend the flat kind of 4% to 4% um releas of data was actually a bit of a surprise so that’s had a knock on effect then to um what it means for how long it’s going to take for inflation to fall

So that might be a consequence of you know inflation being more embedded than um originally thought so it’s hard to say with any real precision when it’s actually going to fall back to 2% but um the latest um that I’m aware of was that it’s it’s pushed out slightly now

Towards um closer to next year um in terms of the components again it’s hard to say um which one is going to fall first um different components will have different uh impact so some some components of inflation obviously are weighted higher because um they make up more of the kind

Of basket of goods that make up inflation so if more people say buy I don’t know home heating oil then that’s going to have more of an effect because it’s it’s a bigger portion of the basket so it’s hard to say with any certainty again um unfortunately which one is is

Likely to fall first um just that there are certain elements of it that if they fall they’ll have a outsized impact on inflation than say something much smaller um if that if that makes sense if that sort of answers your question perfect um look thanks uh

Thanks for that and then the other thing was just on around um at employment rates as well um have there been any research and they so so there was a huge um decrease a sharp fall off really uh in the number of people who were self-employed um since the pandemic um

So is there any indication under that as to where are they going um you know are they economically inactive have they become employees where those people migrating into in terms of employment uh yeah so a lot of the change if you there’s one of the figures in the paper

That shows um how total employment is composed so which I think you’re referencing um so employment has gone up quite a lot um and that is largely a consequence of people leaving self-employment um and going changing Labor uh Market status and becoming employed um obviously there’s more I

Suppose security with um having an employee you know being an employee than there is being self-employed um and that was a really noticeable Trend following the pandemic uh self-employment was fairly steady over time and then took like quite a sharp decrease following the following following the pandemic um in terms of

The actual flow of whether people have become self-employed and gone to employment or if they’ve become inactive or unemployed um isn’t something i’ have to hand it’s not something we covered in the paper but it is something that’s possible um to ascertain from from the statistics that the ni stats and

Research agency do publish things um to do with what’s called clment flows so when people are you know starting to claim unemployment benefits and when they’re not um and when they move labor market status which direction they’re going in so that is something that can be can be found out but it’s not

Something um I’m afraid of we’ve covered here well that’s great um it’ be really useful I think to get that information just to pick up on Trends um and they actually ascertain better where where people are going and where they’re migrating to in terms of their

Employment and lot of thank you for the answers today really appreciate them Patrick Mike thank you very much both both very welcome as you know I Le a bit of a fan booy of of your work and I hope Cass is coming back um Chris I um focused on economic inactivity and

Um and the reasons why so for example I have heard an official of the department say ah but economic inactivity includes students who are staying in education for longer and that’s a good thing um but I think overall economic in activity is a bad thing and what I’m wondering is

Because our rates are so much worse than neighboring jurisdictions how well do we understand the reasons for economic inactivity um it’s not an area that’s for want of res resarch into it nor irland there is quite a lot of work that’s been done into it

Um and I think you know despite all that it it you know it hasn’t really changed too much over time so I think there is quite a lot of work that’s been done to identify the not just that the headline rate is too high but you know the

Reasons for why it is the age groups and so on so we can’t actually you know see in quite a lot of detail which cohorts of the inactive are the ones that we can actually do something about about or we can have some sort of impact on um you know

People over 50 for example or that cohort that’s long-term sick and disabled um I do feel like the reasons are fairly well understood um you know like I say a lot of work has been done to identify them um but I suppose coming up with policies to actually make a sort of substantial

Or uh significant impact on them is is a different thing um cu the student student point you made um you yes that’s classed as inactivity um I suppose it’s it’s it’s considered in activity but it is also I suppose considered future future potential economic activity um similarly with retirement you know

That’s considered an activity as well but that’s inactivity that has or activity that has happened at some point as well I suppose what I’m wondering is if if we look at some of the barriers to economic activity uh such as affordable accessible Child Care is it possible to

Say if we were able to deliver affordable accessible child care we would have this impact either in percentage terms or in numbers on those who are currently economically inactive because of the lack of say yeah there’s um there’s certainly a way you know if policies like that are costed that there

Would be you know some sort of modeling involved in you know different scenarios of say you know if Child Care provision was a certain amount that it would bring bring you know x amount into the workforce or you know make it possible or remove some sort of barrier um I’m

Not aware of any estimate at the moment that actually says you know it would have a certain percentage impact or you know bring a a certain number of people back into the workforce um chair I would just add um that there is a a very rich evidence

Base but I guess it begs the question about when have we last had an executive economic strategy overarching Strate strategy under which you would have departmental policies and programs falling out of um whenever we last had program for government so I guess SC asking the um the departmental

Officials um not just of economy across the board as to what plans there are for joined up activity to address all the metrics that Chris has spoken about um and not just in terms of an econ economic Strate overarching strategy also in relation to an industrial strategy and an investment strategy so

It’s like looking at the totality of the equation rather than peace meal and it’s cross cutting across all the government CH I just wonder whether the committee would would see value in asking research to take a look at at economic inactivity and maybe pull that rich source of of

Data together in terms of the possibilities of policies that the executive could could bring forward that might make a dent in economic in activity levels would that be something you could do if we agreed to ask here we can outline and bring together all the information but we wouldn’t make policy

Proposals but we can raise issues that arise out of and where there’s ABS apparent absence yeah where we can develop options would the would I think Phil wants to add to that point I just I was going to make the point I mean because uh Chris touched on cares and

Disability so in terms of the research that M suggest and we asked for can I ask I mean because there’s legislation that’s coming through the EU and in the South maybe about having the impact of that with regard to you know cares leaving and work life balance as well

That that be included in the research okay Mike do you have any other questions thank you thank you very much thank thank you uh both of you very much and look forward to to working with you as go forward I have a a little bit

Of an issue with with the the terms that has been framed um the UK average growth was 41% and our UK our growth was 38% which is below average in the UK is an average economy it’s not even one of the best performing economies in the world by far

So because we’re comparing oursel to less than average we’re nice and we’re performing well but in the in within the UK we’re performing keeping up with average just but in the world Market we’re not performing well so the the language that we use in reports like this are are are vital and

I’m a glass always half full and want positivity and want to move forward and want to grow but when you’re starting base you’ve got to be honest and they starting be a s performing well Northern and economy in my view has not performed well over over that period of time is

That fair yeah in a lot of in a lot of metrics yeah like that’s a headline number so GDP is you know an imperfect measure of how an economy is doing but it’s sort of a broad one to say how it’s generally tracking because it’s comparable with other economies um there

Are sort of you know within the detail areas where it is performing well and areas where it’s performing less well um and that is sort of intended as like a you know it’s sort of General comparison with other similar similar sort of nearby countries nearby economies um it

Yeah it’s not performed quite as well say as the UK um on average um the point is sort of trying to say that it’s kept pace with it um despite sort of sectoral differences and productivity gaps and inactivity and things like that but uh totally appreciate that I totally

Appreciate that we are sort of roughly there there around um Scotland Wales I think was a couple percent higher from reading back that’s fine but you only have to look to the South and if you quickly look at the World Bank figures and the GDP in the south is five times

What it was in in 98 or 2000 I think the figures go back to if if you take out the blue chip companies and the and the the uh that sort of inward investment that’s has come into the South they GDB per capitalist over three times for the

UK isn’t even twice but that’s the report we’re we’re basing ourselves only on England Scotland Wales and saying we’re performing well yeah in reality we’re not we’re absolutely not and and and we all want to and we had a debate yesterday and it was really useful where

All of us were were talking of the same of wanting to to move and go forward but I think there has to be a level of honesty when we get reports through not just within the the UK regions and I think that’s important that we do have

That but also look to the South and and the other European and the states and of where we sit because we don’t compete on economically within GB we sit in the world market and we need to sit in the world market and if we don’t have those

Sort of stats then we don’t you know it’s we’re starting from a base of you know P ourselves in the back and now we’re all right but doing all right is not good enough and that’s that’s the point I’m trying to make you know I want

To see us grow and go but doing okay and Performing well we when we’re not you know we don’t need a p in the back we need reality to to move forward if I may suggest um when doing a a future briefing maybe to pull out other com relevant comparators um in the

World Market rather than just within the abely essential totally essential yeah you know it’s that’s doable yeah yeah thank you thank you thank you sir uh Shen okay uh thank you very much um Chris for that breakdown and I as well um the the the briefing rightly talks

About inclusion uh and um it talked about the disparity in the economic rates given um the priority given um by the minister in relation to Regional balance should we not have more data that actually drills down on um each one of those areas for example economic and

Ity productivity Gap should we give get data about wage differentiation uh and disposable income because those really those figures really drill down just where wealth is where growth is and where the need is and I don’t we don’t see that in in in in this data and I think it’s really

Essential if we are going to if the vision is going to be about good jobs and uh about Regional balance then we need the regional data and we need it broken down uh very distinctly so that we can see the differentiations and you know those productivity uh Gap that we

Have set we have indicated there um there’s great Divergence in the productivity gap between parts of Northern Ireland so that that Medium uh or median does not tell the story it does not tell the story at all and you know we talked all yesterday about apprenticeships and and and things like

That that you know Drive productivity and skills drives productivity so we need to actually see where the gaps are because then we’ll know where the skills gaps are as well so um I think it’s really important um for for this and I I would absolutely agree with David if we

Just keep on looking at the UK you know um we’re not really seeing the ambition that we need within the context of of us in the economy committee uh and we need to actually look at our nearest neighbor um in all of these um in all of these

Areas just to see where there is the differentiation because we are competing in an all Island Market as well as cloud collaborating okay CH now that we have a sense of the new committee’s um senses and sensibilities we will definitely better that in mind when compy in the

Future briefings thank you thank you Jonathan thank you chair and it’s just a point on labor force so obviously there’s there’s huge challenges there um whenever we look at some of our major Employers in Northern Island they’re very labor intensive Industries um so there’s a concern there regarding how do

We address um those issues in the future given historic volum birth rates and has that been factored in as to how we can uh ensure that we address economic inactivity by also recognizing the huge challenges that the labor force is going to face in the projected future but that

Being said as well um looking I was recently at an event where a major it firm uh Global it firm said we are not at Peck employment and they meant by Peak employment in terms of the Technologies now that artificial intelligence have generated in that particular sector means

That the create the creation of new jobs within that industry in particular their own firm has capped out they will now be looking towards artificial intelligence to to take up those particular roles so there’s two challenges there one key sectors that are going to require labor which we look at historic uh low

Unemployment rates one issue and then then the other issue historic falling birth rates which means they’re not going to be able to fill those Industries and then on the alternative new new emerg technologies is there any analysis of what that future mapping item planning looks like where does

Northern Ireland sit within that within the UK context and then on a more UK basis on on the global context the challenges yeah um not that I am aware of that I would have to hand um there probably is there’s a lot of work that’s been done

Done on the likely replacement of jobs with AI and um Automation and so on um and there has been some work done on that in Northern Ireland um it’s all it’s looked at what the effect has been so far but also jobs that are you know I

Suppos potentially at risk of being you know at risk of being replaced um as well so that’s that’s been there is research that’s on that um within the UK context I’d love to know where Northern Ireland sits in comparison with other devolved regions in relation to the advancement

Of AI Technologies to some of those work work streams so yeah yeah chair we we again it’s another briefing that we could pursue and we could call on our interparliamentary networks to see because AI is you know the debate and the outworkings of that is alive and

Well with so we can try to capture that in a briefing yeah I would love to see actually how it inter relates with the public sector in particular um you know there there is a lot lot of administrative duties in particular looking at whether it’s challenges that

Our Health Service face in terms of some of the backlogs and delays right across different areas of the public sector how AI interrelates with that in terms of trying to speed the system up and are we behind in terms of other aspects of the UK in trying to achieve that

Goal just point Y perfect a uh just two quick questions for me uh figure five from your report nor and exports Imports trade balance 201122 so uh record trade uh exports Northern Ireland doesn’t break down by market but I assume UK internal Market is still by far our largest export yeah

If you look at so the different components of imports and exports so if you look at exports around 55 60% of that is to GB um 22% is Roi um if you look in the other direction at Imports um it’s around 57 from GB 57% of the total um

That was around 70% 12 13 years ago around 2011 it was about 70% it’s now 57 60% um and then imports from Roi account for around 15% thank you and then just pick up on the point you need made in relation to uh most and least deprived wordss in

Terms of employment do we go down into those so that’s P figure 13 um of your presentation do we use what super output areas uh Council Wards parliamentary constituencies in this particular paper it’s economy-wide um but the data does exist at Wards and super output area so

Um um you know in terms of deprivation like all these metrics inclusion metrics um deprivation um differences in employment rates um inactivity obviously there’s pockets of you know small like you say superate areas um where it’s much higher um so it’s not uniform across Northern Ireland an inactivity rate 27% doesn’t mean it’s

That everywhere obviously it’s some places it’s much much higher but they’re not in this paper in particular but that data um does exist and as we do publish it and um it is accessible yeah so that that be looked on uh with that Chris and E can I thank

You both very much for your attendance as members have articulated your work is vital to the operation of the assembly so thank you so much thank you okay so uh in summary then chair in terms of the research request there’s a few this always happens when has come to

Us is uh around uh employment and where as pck was asking about where the self-employed go around uh inactivity um returning to work and becoming claimants uh around inactivity and barriers to getting into employment there’s a piece then which the chair mentioned around the sub Regional and the super output

Areas some of them will definitely be in Belfast they definitely will old park others um for example and some will be in um the Northwest uh you know be M on Talos Etc um certainly would have been in the past so there’s a piece around that to further information about that

And also were looking for the paper to talk about the impact of child care policies particularly in other jurisdictions because these issues have been tackled um elsewhere and then the Philip was asking about the the impact on carers um the their their return to the workforce and measures that have been

Taken uh in order to uh help them manage their work life balance and their caring responsibilities you mean there’s legislation in the South and there’s a director from the EU so maybe just the impact of that that we could learn from and I can recall when I was Social

Development Committee Clark many years ago the estimated impact of the economic benefit of carers if if you had to pay for them it would be a couple of billion in Northern Ireland Alone um the other um uh points were around comparators for the economy with um other jurisdictions

Uh and then uh there was piece around the sub Regional information about uh which differentiation on productivity and then the uh question Mr Booky asked about key sectors the impact of AI the challenge um um for Northern Ireland um and those particular sectors that are going to require investment that will be

Maybe the centers for employment or may be impacted um adversely by employment uh going forward and then furthermore the uh breakdown of the uh trade information the figure five just the GB Roi for the imports and exports just to see what that is just be interesting so

That’s a bit that will keep them going for a while but I know it’s all all good stuff and no no member should definitely ask re for for info but highly recommend it everyone content with that y okay perfect if we then turn to item 10 members which is correspondence so page

854 to 857 of our packs provides a summary of all correspondents that we’re now going to deal with so item two is a page 858 members are asked to note a short acknowledgement from the Department indicating that it will keep the committee a brast of employment rights

Issues is the committee contend to note the correspondence thank you item three is a page 861 members are asked to note the consultation on miscarriage leave pay has concluded and consideration of the responses is underway the clerk has has advised that the department erroneously included an incomplete analysis of the

Responses is the committee content to forego site of the incomplete analysis on the strict understanding that the department shares the analysis when complete and advises the committee on the way forward for this important legislation MH perfect uh item four then is a page 863 members are asked to note departmental

Corresponding spondents advising that the minister intends to bring forward legislation including a car’s leave provision in this mandate is the committee content to note the correspondence forwarded to car’s ni and ask them to provide a briefing on this issue yes go to yep item five then is a 865 members are

Asked to consider a departmental response to committee queries regarding a tuition fee consultation which was mandated by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland as part of a wider consideration of Revenue raising measures the consultation was not held the consultation documentation includes quite a lot of information about maximum student numbers and widening

Participation which has been summarized in the index by the Clark is the committee content to write to the Department and ask for details of the timeline in terms of reference of the review of ha funding an explanation of the application of the Mas in formula for ha and Fa information on the level

Of widening participation funding generated by non-uk students and clarity as to whether the department for health provides tuition fee cover for Allied Health professional he courses as per page 893 of your pack I of course question um just it it appears that uh from from the consultation that the Department hasn’t

Considered the postgraduate uh tuition fees as they’re kind of unregulated but we all know um that um that the loan is less than the cost that it takes can we ask the department to give consideration for this um in in this in this document as well sorry you were writing to the

Department asking them to consider just that the the Department’s consultation from from from this is doesn’t appear to be considering postgrad the consultation was not run it was mandated by the secretary of state so there will be no consultation or I mean the paper itself this document sorry sorry your part the

Paper so to to look at the postgraduate situation in terms of the tuition feas because it doesn’t cover the the the the costs the loan doesn’t cover the tuition fee is what the member saying yes it’s on regulated yeah okay okay is that AG great chairperson to write the

Department yeah and then and then the the other the other just bit around this as well um is you know can we get an assessment on what um an increase on any fees for for students would mean um and and and and and what would it cost if if

We were releasing a Mas in place what would that actually cost you know in terms of a tuition fee what what would that actually put on the student if we were actually costing that all out because there doesn’t seem to be any really clar Clarity around that as well

So we keep on talking about raising tuition fees but what would the department need in order to release one place so per per place if you know what I mean it’s a million pounds for 180 undergraduate students at uu and QB according to that document no but can we

Get the breakdown I just don’t understand where where where where it all you know where they’re getting their figures for calculated is that a great chairperson you know CU that it’s very prohibitive if you if you look at it in that kind of R it’s very prohibitive so if they could give a

Breakdown sorry think mrar you um yeah no just I think you’ve clarified a clerk already but I think what is important to State on that is that it’s not the desire of the economy minister to raise CH fees in in in any form um that was obviously something

That the consultation came out under the secretary of state so look at I mean the concerns that have already been raised would totally share them uh don’t think that um we should be looking at that at all so I think we we need to just assess the fact that you know we the

Consultation hasn’t happened um it it hasn’t happened because it was mandated by the Secretary State the ministers come in clearly now and said it shouldn’t you know that we’re not looking at that so I think it’s just clear that we know have a minister in place that the consultation hasn’t gone

Ahead and and we need to kind of look at that angle of it no and I’m not suggesting the increasing of student fees either but I just want to know what what is the considerations what would the cost be because I want to break it down so that we have you know an

Argument against uh raising it just in in terms of the prohibitive cost there so it’s just kind of understanding the data behind it if you know what I mean members contend anyone else on that point or any other point on those so they’re all agreed y yep perfect okay

Item six members is a page 951 members are asking out response from the committee for finance around industrial derating so members will be aware that the minister for finance has confirmed the continuation of industrial derating uh item seven of page 953 members are asked to note a copy of a written

Ministerial statement in respect of regional rate where the Minister of Finance indicates that industrial day measures are set to continue are members contend to note that statement thank you eight a page five no 957 members are asked to consider response to committee queries in respective unpublished department for the economy annual report

On accounts 2022 to 23 and the anticipated departmental Financial outturn for 2324 the clerk has summarized key information in the index including a 2022 23 capital budget underspent of nearly 25 million pound of which four was apparently returned to treasury uh Amy under spend including 25 5 million pound of underutilization of

Invest ni Grant provision and in 2023 24 a projected Capital slippage of 24 million owing to City Deals which you know members have raised previously is the member are the members content to note these issues for ey and perhaps ask the minister about them when he briefs

Us in the week after next yes thank you item nine then members is Page 968 members are asked to note the February update on the Department’s capital projects are the department are we happy to note those y thank you item 10 is Page 972 members are asked to note a

Response from the minister indicating his concerns and the way forward for the ETA authorization scheme is the committee content to note the correspondence thank you thank you uh item 11 is a page 974 members are asked to no correspondence from the Department providing an update on the review of the

Labor Relations agency a final report is to be published the department also advises of reviews of the six Fe colleges stram Millis and the health and safety executive Northern Ireland these were instigated following ndna commitment to review arms length bodies is the committee content to write to the

Department to seek sight of these relevant reports when they are published yeah thank you item 12 members is a page 977 members are asked to note a departmental response on the late payment of free work is the committee content to note the report thank you item 13 members uh page

979 we’re asked to note the second report from The Examiner of statutary roles the ESR has no comment on any role considered by our committee is we therefore content to note that report yeah thank you page 988 is item 14 and members are asked to consider an

Invitation from the nusi to meet with the chair to discuss is issues in higher education members content that I meet with them item 15 is a page 898 members are asked to know correspondence from the association of British insurers are we content to not those correspondents

Chair just just on that um you know happy to note and obviously it’s very very timely anybody that’s that has had interaction or had constituents with interaction with insurers it’s a huge problem and it’s maybe something that the committee might want to look at in further detail uh because it’s having a

Particular impact on not only the we look at our our economic inactivity and productivity rates this is having a huge impact on those younger people that are trying to access the workplace particularly those from a rural perspective uh that don’t have the access to public transport so would be

Timely for us to to maybe Dela we bit further into that at a particular Point briefing from the association ofur y members happy to do do that yeah thank you uh page 992 then members item 16 members are asked no correspondence from the maritime Belfast trust to the minister regarding the Belfast

Waterfront prominade framework is the committee content to n those correspondents yeah do any members have any queries with those correspondents no forward work plan then item 11 that’s a page 995 our members content with the forward work plan as current ly sat Mr n Mike yeah just looking at the 20th of March

Ministerial briefing budget I take it it’s it’s more than the budget we’ve got to kind of we’ve asked him um yeah okay so the uh chair wrote to the minister uh seeking a briefing uh we have asked uh so the committee has asked for uh what’s

The Minister’s plan for the uh for the for the Mandate um but they’ve only undertaken to to provide information on the budget but I said to them I would be astonished if members didn’t ask lots and lots of questions about what the minister he’s got his his feet under the

Table you know what his plans are for the remainder of the Mandate and there we are I think it’s a little unusual to go six meetings with before the minister appears before committee I think in it’s not for me to defend the minister on this one but

Obviously he will be in I think he was hoping to come next week but he’s in the United States um in relation to St Patrick’s Day uh but I am sure the minister will be um well aware that the committee will want to raise a broad range of issues with

Him on his return and I’m sure should anyone be speaking to the minister between now and the 20th just to flag with him that you know we’ll be king to to he probably listening inur sure watch thousands of others it’s a very popular committee there are some broad issues I mean we

We’ve had kind of in the Legacy committee some peac meal legislation on employment like parental bement and carers and I think even the ministers hinted that he’s thinking about a more overarching piece of employment legislation yesterday he sponsored a trade Union launch of a document which is about kind of tripartite social

Inclusion approach which I think is very interesting um so these are these are areas that we have our duty to to explore with them okay not yeah noted yep uh are people happy to approve the Ford work plan yep perfect uh any other business at this stage members for the

Committee if not then members the next committee is scheduled for Wednesday the 13th of March at 10:00 a.m. here in room 30 up Parliament buildings and our members content sorry just Advanced apologies I’ll not be here you can speak to the minister in the United States on our

Behalf uh are the committee agreed that we do now adjourn committee room 30 Signed