James O’Brien and LBC’s investigations editor Lewis Goodall analyse the by-elections as Labour swings Wellingborough and Kingswood seats, which were previously large Conservative majorities. Rishi Sunak has urged frustrated Conservatives ‘not to put Keir Starmer in power’ following this Tory disaster.
“Jacob Rees Mogg is saying it went well.”
“There is now something of a pattern,”
‘The fact that Labour can win such a heavily Brexit-Leave seat says something about how the politics of Brexit unwound’
“The really generational significant political reset being might be happening later this year.”
“It will be a question for historians to ponder about whether the conservative party could have achieved a permanent realignment of British politics after 2019.”
“One of the misreads of politics is that the Conservative party is pragmatic.”
“When they change their minds, like a glacier, it really moves.”
“There is one circumstance where the Conservatives claim to have done rather well yesterday, and that’s if they got Laura Trott to count the votes.”
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Um we should probably do a little bit of grown-up analysis as well as the uh slightly more should we say excitable coverage that I’ve been engaging in so far luckily Lewis goodle is on hand busy day for Lewis today he’ll be with you on LBC from 6 and it’s probably laying down
I believe is the correct phraseology probably laying down one of those news agents podcasts in the course of today as well um I I I’m working on the principle Lewis that you can tell how badly it went for the Tories because Jacob Reese MOG is saying it went well
We prefer slapping down as a matter of fact James SLA slapping down the podcast later on today yeah well look I mean there’s a few things that your listeners and all LBC listeners and everyone else should should remember um when they’re listening to some of this this analysis
There there’s a lot of talk around about how uh labor have done badly in these byelections because they’ve got fewer votes than they did in these constituencies in 2019 in a general election where they lost appallingly and in both of these constituencies where in 201 19 they lost appallingly that’s not
How elections work elections work by getting more votes in the election that you’re fighting than your opponent not more fewer vote well you don’t tempt fate there could be a bill in the House of Commons next week in the same way that they’ve tried with Rwanda to redefine what counting
Means so you know of course I mean of course turnout is always lower in byelections I mean is almost almost never going to be higher than it was in a general election because you know naturally a lot of people don’t even know that it’s happening in their constituency on a particular date that
There is no other way of describing these results than a brilliant couple of results for labor and an absolutely catastrophic set of results for the conservative party and if it were just these results then of course you could say well this is just a couple of results but obviously there is now
Something of a pattern both in the sunac Premiership I mean where of course they lost mid Bedford sh SB andd but also where you go back to the Johnson Premiership as well where you know they were losing seats you know in chesham and amam and in shopshire in shopshire
North shopshire and other seats as well you know either to the liberal Democrats Tieton either to the liberal Democrats usually with swings north of you know 10% 15% 20% or to the labor party and the thing that really strikes me about this James is that if you’d said to me you know in
2019 um the labor party would be winning in seats like Selby anony they would be winning in seats like Welling BR it would have been even in a byelection in those years it would have been completely unimaginable why well largely why because brexit was so completely Salient the fact that the labor party
Can win in such heavily brexit Le voting seats says something about how the politics of brexit has Unwound and has said some says something about how little salience that issue now has at least for the labor party so oddly and this has happened quite a lot lately and
Of course it part of the problem is People Like Us who have to have opinions in the in the moment of of of of the moment and then the facts change or or it turns out that some of the parameters in which we framed those opinions may
Have been illusory but but actually the great political reset that people claimed had happened in 2019 may prove to be very very temporary and the Really significant generational political reset might be happening later this year absolutely it could I mean look I think it will be a question for historians to
Ponder about whether the conservative party could have achieved a permanent realignment of British politics after 2019 I actually think that that was potentially at least within their gift I think what what I do I think what lost it is that Johnson uh had neither the intellectual application nor to be
Honest the honesty to R to Ram it home I think they they go genuinely got to a potentially posturite moment in 2090 two things happened Johnson was too feckless and also the conservative party didn’t actually want it you know there was a sort of political landscape that was
There for them that was genuinely post statu and it just required a bit of flexibility actually one of the great myths of British politics is that the conservative part’s pragmatic it’s really not very pragmatic anymore probably was once but it’s not now as soon as they had the opportunity to to
Flex back to a more traditional version of themselves IE thatcherism which they literally did in a sort of cosplaying fashion under Liz truss they did so they could had had the opportunity with the new seats that they’ won to basically be more or less what Johnson was offering
Which is a slightly soggier kind of slightly right on culture left on the E economy and that could have probably guaranteed them some geminy it hasn’t happened that way and as you say it could later this year could be the realigning moment what I would worry
About for sunn at this point now is it is possible that we’re at just one of those points in the Electoral cycle where it doesn’t actually matter what the government does and it doesn’t matter what they say you know it’s like as you say James you know people like
You and me we PID to have opinions we PID to think about politics dayto day our opinions change dayto day the public are sort of glacial in their opinion you know most of the time they’re only sort of vaguely paying attention but when they change their mind like a glacia it
Really moves when it the glacia moves it really moves and there’s not much you can do to stop it so my worry if I were number 10 and Rishi suo would be at this point now now the public have just stopped listening they’ve made up their
Mind and that is I mean regardless of what they throw into the mix um that that is as you suggest likely to stay the same Louis thank you I know you are you going to be writing about this in your in your new book what this particular day this
Conversation no not today not NE not this conversation even I’m not that self-referential I go straight to the index I can’t believe it what were you doing on February the 16th no I mean that stuff about the possibility that the Tories could have could have somehow
Trans I will well I mean if it proves to be right then I’ll definitely write I find that absolutely inevitably I’ll just foret it there are of course there is one circumstance in which the conservatives could claim to have um to have done rather well yesterday and that
Would be if they got Laura Trot to count the votes well yes yeah but she’s probably not got a future as a returning officer leis good with you at 6:00 on LBC
50 Comments
Haunted Pencil rises up from the crypt too early, Halloween is in October Moggy 😆😆👎👎👎
JRM a waste of 8 pints of blood.
If they got zero votes, they'd tell us its a sign the people want them to get on with the job and to keep going with the plan
It was a disaster for Britain, we’re going to boot out a bunch of useless incompetent liars and vote in an even bigger bunch of useless incompetent liars, when will we learn ?
The irony about the comments hating the Tory’s is they aren’t Tory’s ! they’re Liberal Democrat’s and Socialists, this is a snap shot of the next 5yrs but this time it’ll have a cherry on the top, parliament is a UNI PARTY, both almost indistinguishable from each other.
As their inevitable demise appears, they grow increasingly desperate, reform celebrating 13 % , I don't think sunak will be in charge for the election, they will roll the dice, what have they got to lose, apart from their jobs,hes like a general who has lost 10 battles on the trot, but in the final one we will leave him in charge,not likely
The Tories know that a huge chunk of their last remaining voters will be dead in 10 years. This helps explain a lot about their current behaviour. Fill your pockets while you can.
Why don't you talk about the 9 European countries moving to the right and rejecting the EU increasingly ? Doesn't suit you Brexit agenda does it ? Britain was the leader and recognised the global agenda which only suits the already obscene rich and as you can see we can kick the Tories to the kerb which could never happen with that trollop Ursula Van Der Leyen. OOps.
Just like Brexit then 😂🤣😂
we all know its tory free xmas on the way but what will we get in exchange for our tick box ?
They'll soon have to increase the size of the studio to accommodate this muppets ego
all maybe part of the plan,,, to big up troy light Starmer, the Tories no they've lost public confidence, so have taken control of labour to ensure the plan can still be followed though with as little interruption by the public voter as possible, cuz how many times have we seen labour have the tories TOTALLY on the ropes YET let them off,, made little of it ? not much of an opposition
JRM looks like, acts like and actually is like, a character from monty python.
There is Nation wide shift away from Cuely, Blaming, and Scapegoating.
That's all the Tories have and all they are promising more of.
70% of voters now utterly reject the Right. That is a Cultural Shift.
Nah, it's just the Tory voters stayed at home. They know there's going to be a GE in the next 6 months.
Loved the Trott joke
Labour got fewer than 50% with a voter turn-out of 37%, that's pathetic. There are more people against this system than for it.
Come on kier,we know you can do it!
The problem with a ‘post-Thatcherite realignment’ is it doesn’t work. The country is broken. Neo-liberalism has a failed, the economy is grinding to a halt as the rich run out of other people’s money to steal.
Laura Kuensberg is putting it about that Labour lost!
The Tories will just spend the HS2 money on Tax cuts and then everything will be ok
The Tories need to deliver the 'will of the people' and go ! 14 years of failure is enough for anyone !
Rees Mogg is from another time zone , only for the rich , and one finger to the noble working man and poor of the UK 🇬🇧
He's right – the public have been so turned off by the Tories they've stopped listening………. along with the fact there is a tangible malaise where they just want to see the back of them as soon as possible. The longer they leave it, the more frustration will be felt. It's rather like having a bad toothache and knowing there will be an NHS dentist arriving but not for some time.
Jacob the denier!
Greased-Frog and the tories are like Monty Pythons Black knight. All his limbs lopped off and squirting blood….”its just a flesh wound”.
O’Brien & Goodall analysing the Tories. If nothing else LBC do know their audience.
I’m prepared to die on the hill that Lewis Goddall is currently the best political commentator in the UK.
Rishi best pm for whites
Con general election and the Tory voters will return, especially the 10 million semi senile, contented, self satisfied, old days pensioners added to the 3 million well-off and you’ve got a Tory majority This is how I’ve always won.
Rishi shud be giving more cost of living payments, if he got a brain
fancy talking about your chances in Rochdale
Those low turnouts should make it void oh sorry the lefty’s won it count s
I think he’s talking about the war !!!!!!
I really enjoy listening to LBC, but it's really odd that the only presenter they ever promote is the dreadful Nick Ferrari, who is a walking talking client journalist for the Daily Excrement. He should be fired for his awful comfort thinking and bigoted views. I would listen to LBC early in the morning if an objective journalist / presenter replaced him.
Keep your eye on Cameron, hee's lurking about in the shadows,…
So if 3 people turn out to vote in a general election and a party wins with just 2 votes then democracy is safe and the winning side had an overwhelming majority. I’d say the voters are trying to tell you liberal elites that they’ve had enough of voting for the uniparty.
Say goodbye to the 2019 intake – ToryTossers!
Worth noting that Somerset Capital,JRM's company is being wound up due to lack of confidence in its management.This wont worry Rees Mogg as he took millions in dividends over the last decade….
Lewis's glacier analogy with public sentiment is very clever.Look at the Fujitsu Post Office scandal triggered by one tv drama or the Mirror exposure of partygate.The British race is long suffering but when it turns on its leaders including its monarchs the reactions are strong…
In reckon the tories will do a last minute bring Boris back then watch all the turkeys vote to keep christmas. So many tories still think hes gods gift to politics. We could have the return of Trump & boris, alongside Putin..WWIII is just around the corner. Make Farage home secretary and we are in for a political kaleidoscope of nonsense.
Mogg is our version of Trump (now that Johnson has disappeared!!) what an absolute Pratt he is 🤬🤬🤬
The Tories and Sunake are finished
James obriens daily conservative and brexit drivel.
This man knows
Lets hope that the General Election goes as well for the Tories.
Looking forward to Labour getting in, should put James out of sync.
The TORY PARTY is going to go down the drain at the next general election .
FACT .is:- THEY ARE TOTALLY FINISHED AS EVEN AN OPPOSITION-PARTY …
Jacob Rees mogg is being lined up to play Professor Yaffle in a live action film of Bagpuss.
The great thing about the Well’rough by-election is the thought that Peter Bone will now have to start paying for his own things rather than wacking everything thru on expenses😊