Last Night’s Special Election Shows GOOD NEWS for Democrats in 2024

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Hey guys welcome back to today’s video today is Wednesday February 14th 2024 and today we are going to be talking about New York’s thirdd congressional district and Tom sasi’s Victory last evening now in the video I made yesterday talking about the victory for Democrats here my takeaway was more so

Centered around the district the House of Representatives and vaguely around the 2024 election but in this video we’re going to be diving deeper into why this actually has good implications for President Biden and Democrats across the country for this upcoming election cycle and really honing in on why this shows

The Democrats are moving back towards their era of Victories and an overall expectation that they could perform well this coming November now Tom swasi defeated Macy pup in this race by a margin of around six points seven points across the district actually more around eight points when you round upwards

Toms’s Victory here was one that Democrats were very much hoping was going to happen but in reality wasn’t sure if it was going to considering the last election results with George Santos who eventually was expelled from Congress but he defeated his Republican opponent here his Democratic opponent

Here by a margin of around eight points and so with George s’s Victory coming into this election cycle Democrats were hoping to use his scandal uh alongside many other factors with Tom swazi being a tried and tested politician within uh this Third District before had served this district from 2016 through 2020 and

You also found too that you know quite frankly Tom swazi had been somebody who knew how to campaign and Macy pip really did not but this third congressional district I think shows more of a microcosm of what we can expect to see on the grand scale of the presidential

Election I’m not going to say that this special election is at all the only indicator or should be the only indicator of what might happen this November but I want to talk about some of the special elections that have been occurring in this election cycle in past

Election cycles and how you know it really draws us back into where we were in the 2020 presidential election now I know we’re getting a lot of deja vu here whether it’s the Super Bowl with the Chiefs and the 49ers or it’s this involvement of Taylor Swift in the

Election or it’s many other factors that play here with Donald Trump and Joe Biden back up to uh a renomination point where we’re expecting a general election against the same exact candidates from the last cycle everything seems to be repeating itself and For Better or For Worse for Democrats and Republicans it

Looks like we’re back on track for nearly an identical performance in the 2020 presidential election based on what these special elections are indicating now I want to first take a step back and take a look at what the forecasters expected of this election in 2024 this Third District was barely barely pulled

But Emerson College and Sienna colge did put in three nonpartisan polls here that both showed Tom swazi with a victory whether it was three points back in January to Four Points in February to Four Points according to Sienna College the expectation here based on the polls

Was that Tom swazi would win but he ended up doubling the expected margin and it was something that while was within technically the margin of error you’re veering the edge of it getting outside the margin of error all in favor of the democratic party I also will say

That even very very strong forecasters like you see with split tickets and other models from the cook political report uh to sabados Crystal Ball you found here that a lot of them either rated this as tossup or slightly in favor of the democratic party which is largely what happened here but even

Again these forecasts expect uh expected that Tom swazi would win by around four to five points nearly identical to what the polls had actually indicated and I also expected that as well I did not expect Tom swazi to really outperform number one where you know Democrats were in the last election cycle quite

Tremendously I mean I was expecting a victory here I was thinking four to five points would be the maximum that Tom swasy could come into but he actually was on par with where President Biden was in the last election and again that’s very good news for Democrats because it means that this Third

District despite all of the you know negative approval around President Biden all of this conversation around him too even some polls that were conducted that aren’t on the average here that showed Tom swasi with a onepoint lead they weren’t on the average I’m not entirely sure the reason why why we CL politics

Did not include them but they were more of a republican pollster they were funded by Republicans to do the poll they found that uh Joe Biden was up against Donald Trump by the same exact margin that Tom swazi was up against Maisy pilip in this District now if Joe

Biden is winning this Third District by eight points on Election Day in 2020 in 2024 rather chances are he’s winning the election and that’s because he’s going to be nearly replicating what he got in the last election according to this uh you know very very localized case but

Again this Third District is a competitive one it used to be Republican George Santos brought it back to its Republican identity in 2022 with Kathy hokel performing as a lack Democratic nominee at the top top top of the ticket here Republicans ended up doing quite well not only in this Third District but

Across the entirety of the state of New York but again it is still very much a swing District it represents the country in the way not necessarily by demographics but more so on the side of electability and the elasticity of the Electoral uh map here the elasticity of

The American electorate how they can sway back and forth from party to party even though one Victory might look strong it can still allow for the opposing party just two years later or now we are knowing less than 2 years later to win by a similar margin and so

It’s very very interesting because George Santos and Tom swasi seem to be nearly identical in terms of their margin but again Democrats made major major advancements across this District so why do I think this has major implications for the 2024 race well I think you need to put things into

Perspective when it comes down to the special elections that have occurred in this election cycle alone in the 2024 race you are finding that the margin and difference between this election cycle and the 2020 presidential is a difference here of 0.0% that is fascinating because when

You take a look at how some of these districts voted in the 2020 election and the 2024 special election that was conducted whether it’s a state house district a State Senate District or of course a congressional district here you find that the margins in 2020 and the

Margins now are equalizing up across the country and of course these are individualized and localized cases in many instan says you are talking about a thousand uh tens of thousands of votes if that right and so it isn’t really us gauging the entire electorate but it is

A way to indicate that maybe we aren’t seeing too much movement from the last election cycle which is good news for Democrats because in the last election cycle they won the election and so when I see these numbers coming out of New York I would say that Republicans and

Democrats are now in a position where they have to take these in and say where do we go from here and I think Democrats will realize that the Tom swazi Playbook whether it was in Queens or Nassau you found that they did significantly better than they did in 2022 in Queens in

District 3 you found that George Santos got 48% of the vote Robert zimmering got 52% of the vote in Nassau County George Santos received 55% of the vote Robert Zimmerman received 45% when you take a look at it this time around Tom swazi defeated Maisy pip and queen 62 to 38

What was a four-point advantage to Democrats is now a 24-point Advantage for Democrats What was a 10-point deficit in Nassau County became a Sixpoint Advantage for Tom swazi this District flipped both one County blue kept the other County even more blue and W across the district quite

Significantly and so when I see this I am understanding and also this ballot this uh lead here might expand for Tom swazy because the reason you have 93% of votes in is because not all the mail and ballots have been counted I know somebody who voted the day before the

Election and mailed it in from Boston I’m sure it’ll go down to New York very very soon but they voted for Tom swad as did many other people that I know and they we’re talking about how they submitted their mail and ballot slate and we know just generally speaking from

The data that’s come in from historical data that a lot of the late ballots do end up leaning Democrat because they are mailin and because Republicans don’t trust it because of the war that was levied against them in the 2024 uh 2020 presidential election cycle and again

Looking at these polls too I am reminded of how there was this hyper fixation that Tom swazi might lose because of how narrow the polls were I think we we have caught ourselves up in a situation where both in 2016 and 2020 we were not trusting the polls because they

Underestimated Republicans but then came 2022 and all of the polls I mean I kid you not almost all of the polls underestimated Democrats from the generic ballot to Statewide Senate races to Statewide gubernatorial races to house races up across the country the polls underestimated Democrats and I think Democrats were reluctant to

Believe that they could be a consistent Factor but I do believe that theab the dosv Jackson decision has under allowed pollsters to miss their Mark when it comes down to the amount of democratic support that they should expect from either side of the aisle and in this

Situation not only this one but also many others Democrats have been severely underestimated up across the country the reason why I think too that this polling error missing the amount of support the Democrats have received is good news for Democrats is because again this is a story that we’ve been seeing told time

And time again looking at the 2024 general election data Trump is beating Biden Nationwide by around one point but if it’s off by the margin that it was in this new New York Third District race Joe Biden wins the popular vote and his chances at winning the Electoral College

Increase quite tremendously but I want to talk to you about some of these polls from 2022 remember the Washington Senate race this hyper fixation 2 that all of a sudden Washington was competitive it was a toss up on the Real Clear Politics map they said that Patty Murray was going to

Win by three points according to the polls poll after poll after poll nonpartisan and partisan alike seem to indicate that this race had narrowed up quite significantly what was supposed to be a three-point Victory ended up being 14.5% but it was also swing States in New Hampshire Maggie Hassen was up by

1.4 according to the polls even St anome College which typically does very very good polls in the state said that Don Balck was going to win by one point Maggie Hassen ended up winning by nine then came Arizona Blake Masters was leading on Election Day by 0.3 he ended

Up losing by five then Pennsylvania Dr Oz LED in four out of the five recent polls in the state Maris College being the only one that was really really accurate with John fedman getting a five-point Victory then came the Georgia Senate race every single poll except for

One showed Walker with the lead and that one that didn’t was East Carolina University that showed a tie and by the final results on Election Day waro won by one and then in the runoff won by two looking at the Nevada Senate race Adam laxalt was supposed to defeat Cortez

Masto by 3.4% he ended up losing on Election Day by a point then came the Arizona governor’s race where Carri Lake was supposed to win by four points and lost by one the Wisconsin governor’s race Tim Michaels was supposed to win by one and he lost by three Pennsylvania

Josh abiro was supposed to win by eight he won by 15 Michigan Gretchen Whitmer was supposed to win by one she won by 11 and so the reason I show you these polls is to tell you that we are looking at the general election data and treating

It as fact and I think we really really really need to shift away from that there’s a reason why I believe Joe Biden is going to win Pennsylvania and although he leads in the polls by 0.3% I’m more confident that he wins than a 0.3% lead in the polls might otherwise

Indicate I also think Joe Biden has a very very good shot at winning States like Michigan and Wisconsin where he’s down in the polls across the state but I could see very much a Pathway to Victory even if the polls in election day show Donald Trump with the upper hand we have

Built ourselves into this idea that somehow Republicans are the only ones who can be underestimated by the polls but our most recent election cycle including all of our special elections and our off cycle races the Ohio abortion referendum the Mississippi governor’s race the Kentucky governor’s race since dobs V Jackson the polls have

Nearly to a te always underestimated Democrats and I think we are seeing that happen this time around Joe Biden might be in a worse place than he was in 2020 based on polls but based on actual elections we are seeing things start to equalize it also helps to you are

Finding here that Democrats in their 2023 to 2024 average have actually outperformed their 2020 presidential margin by 4.1% and so when you see that this 4.1% advantage or when you group in 2022 you’re talking somewhere around an 8 to N Point overall Advantage relative to the 2020 election cycle I mean you are

Talking about significant improvements that are being missed because we are looking at these polls as if they are you know true words spoken from some election God who this all knowing Beast you know that that somehow knows how these elections are going to go the polls are very very good resources but

They certainly don’t tell us the full story and the fact is based on the special elections we see now in 2024 alone between January 1st and today tell us that we are on track for nearly a repeat of the 2020 election cycle which for Democrats is a very very good thing

This reversion back in New York’s thir District to the Biden margin from 2020 20 also is an indicator of that as well this race where Republicans and Democrats spent over 10 to20 million in a congressional race in a special election in which they turned out nearly

The same amount of Voters in the early and mailan votes but did not turn out the same amount on Election Day and that was the Republican party’s unfortunate reality that they couldn’t turn out their base on Election Day but Democrats absolutely did we are missing something with our 2024 analysis something that

These special elections the 22 midterms are cycle elections all of them are screaming out and saying look at this race from a different lens than this you know fixation on Biden’s age this fixation on the national polls this fixation on the Statewide polls on Donald Trump’s performances in the

Republican primaries there are heavy heavy indicators here that Democrats are in fact on a pathway to a strong Victory not only a victory but in a nearly identical Victory which would be a strong Victory based on what the numbers are predicting today in the 2024 race and something that we are clearly Miss

Missing when it comes down to our analysis and so when I dive deeper into what this data is telling us it is telling us to take a look at it from a different lens and understand it that maybe maybe just maybe we should be more focused on election results rather than

Predicted election results and that’s where I’m at when it comes down to this district and the special election results that we just got last evening because Tom sasi’s District here the victory that he has is a representation of larger American it isn’t perfect and it is not the only

Thing we should look at but that’s spread of special elections alongside historical inaccuracies in favor of Republicans recently when it comes down to these polls are also things to look at to and certainly things to keep in mind and keep into a factor when we analyze this upcoming presidential

Election so thank you guys so much for watching this video make sure to comment down suggestions below subscribe on the left if you haven’t already and check out the Instagram and Twitter at the bottom left of the screen there’s also a Discord server if you go ahead and join

On the screen there’s a video you can watch and then a play list for my 2024 election analysis videos again thank you guys so much for watching and I will see you all later today