Meddig tarthat a háborúk kora? Nógrádi György, Inforádió, Aréna

Mikor és mi lehet a vége Izrael és a Hamász gázai háborújának? Mi lehet a következménye az izraeli elhárítás októberi felkészületlenségének? Megerősödve vagy meggyengülve jöhet ki a konfliktusból az izraeli vezetés illetve a Hamász a hazai és nemzetközi színtéren?
Mi dolga van az amerikai haderőnek a gázai partoknál? Van-e a NATO-nak feladata a két háborúban?
Mi a környező arab államok politikája a gázai háborúval kapcsolatban? Képes lesz-e az USA egyszerre figyelni és támogatni a gázai és az ukrajnai háborút? Mi a két háborús konfliktus következménye az Európai Unió számára?

Nógrádi György biztonságpolitikai szakértő, egyetemi tanár, az InfoRádió Aréna c. műsorában 2023 november 14-én. Podcast.

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Inforádió. Magyarország hírrádiója. A hírrádió.

Good afternoon, Aréna listeners, I’m Tibor Exterde, and in the studio we have György Nógrádi, professor and security policy expert. The conversation is now being recorded on the radio. Have a nice day! Thank you for accepting our invitation. – Have a nice day!

– Thank you for the invitation. – Do you have any idea how long Israel’s war in Gaza could last? – This is a very interesting thing. Thank God we don’t have three minutes, a little bit more. Let me make a few points, and then I’ll ask what one wants.

Once the war started, there were a lot of surprises. Two. I still to this day cannot believe that heads will not roll after the war that the CIA, Israeli intelligence and satellites did not detect it. He issued a statement, Hamas I don’t know who read it, where he said that the basic purpose

Of the war was to make sure that the world didn’t forget the Palestinian problem, because everybody had forgotten it, including the Arab countries. They were absolutely right about that, two. There’s a monthly terrorist magazine, I hope the average viewer doesn’t read it, where it’s written that

There are three conditions for military victory now in the Gaza war, one, military success. That’s two of the days in the first hour or two of the war, a PR success. It was incredibly interesting, so far, if I look, the war started on 7 October. Today is Nov 14.

So far, the Palestinians have been better at PR than the Israelis. This is new, and the third is the power of prayer. It’s difficult to interpret, because obviously Christians, Jews, Muslims, everyone believes in their own prayers. But this has been published.

Now, what has been published since then is a lie. What did they say? The fact that the Palestinians in Gaza did not inform the Hamas leadership in Qatar, they started the war themselves. Impossible. Not a single Israeli civilian was killed, only those who got caught between two fires, a lie,

And they didn’t want hostages, but that was necessary. Now this is how this war starts, and I said then that for a few days the world will be with Israel, and then the world will turn away from Israel. Now, war is about 40. on the day of this turnaround.

If I look at the number of Jewish deaths, we don’t know exactly 1200-1400. How many Palestinians have died so far in the gas of 11,000 pins, with around 30,000 wounded, is hard to accept. Incredibly interesting, so far three South American countries have severed diplomatic relations with Israel.

The Arab world is distancing itself, but it’s interesting because a large part of the world doesn’t want to go to war with Israel. South Africa announced yesterday that it wants to prosecute Netanyahu Ireland has broken off relations with Israel by a parliamentary resolution, and has met 57 Muslim countries to do so.

Who was next to the driver? Abbas. Who is Abbas? The head of the Palestinian Authority, who does not have much of a role, but who is now in a position of great importance, because there is a war going on with Hamas. It’s incredibly interesting, and the situation really changes by the hour.

– Let’s start at the beginning with the first thing he said. Heads will roll at the CIA and the Israeli Defence Forces. How could they have missed it, when one of the best-monitored areas on Earth is a matchbox. – That’s right. – That’s right.

– Some of my comments on this one, Israeli intelligence assumes that there will be no war now. Two. The Yom Kippur War 50. anniversary. I don’t know if anybody remembers that fifty years is a long time in a man’s life, fifty years ago Egypt

Attacked Egypt in such a way that Israel was sure there would be no war. Six months earlier, Golda Meir had taxed the troops, it cost a lot of money, there was no war, the alarm was false.

Now, when there were many signals 50 years ago that there was going to be war, I am not alarmed. What was the principle? They cannot break through the homo barrier in the Suez Canal. Water cannons were fired as a guide, of course. And the Egyptian attack began. You cannot go into details.

Sharon, one of the best-known Israeli generals of the time, later a leading politician, used his tanks to break through the Egyptian army’s second and third armies without being noticed. Sure of their victory, the Egyptians, to the point of poop, my then Soviet premier,

Frantically goes to Cairo and slams satellite intelligence on the table in front of Sadat to note that one of his army’s two armies has been surrounded by a minimum of two Israeli tanks. I’m not going to go into details, the effect of this is that Kissinger

Goes there, he mediates, Egypt’s policy is changing now. The principle was that there would be no war. If there is, it will be on the longest front, the West Bank front, I say, at the second Ordan border. Next, there is now a frontal war going on. This could also be discussed.

Will there be a second front? What did the leader of the main Palestinian resistance organisation say, who said they were in the north, on the Lebanese border. At the moment, Hamas has had some of its rockets. The Hatsburgs have from 100 to 150,000 missiles deployable.

What did Nasrallah, the leader, say, that every Palestinian is dead, we kill two Jews, okay, this is PR. But he did not say that the war would start. What does it mean? Palestinian solidarity, I apologise, does not exist, I’ll move on. Nobody was willing to take in Palestinian refugees,

Not even Egypt, and we could have a discussion about that. Nor Jordan, where two-thirds of the population is already Palestinian. Lebanon has been in a civil war intermittently since 1975, and the organisation is trying to be at the forefront of the resistance, so to speak, against Turkey

– for very interesting perceived or real national objectives. – Israel has had a unity government since the outbreak of the war. Will this conflict stabilise Netanyahu’s position or destabilise it? – It’s a wonderful question. Let’s start at the beginning.

The main opposition party in the unity government and its leader are lying low and have not joined. Two things that the former opposition minister in the unity government said this morning, that it would be suicide to replace Netanyahu in the middle of the war now, but so far the army and the secret

Services have taken responsibility for the failure of the war, not Netanyahu. He said that his case would be investigated after the war. I say, in Hungarian, he wants to win, to forget that he was wrong at the beginning of the war. He is the number one leader in the country. Incredibly interesting.

According to the polls, today the Israeli government is 120 members in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset needs 61 members to form a government. It would suffer a shocking defeat. There will obviously be no election today, especially because there is a war on. Netanyahu’s popularity has reached an historic low today.

But what this will mean after the war, one cannot know. What will be the end of the war? I add that Israel has won every single war it has fought and lost every single peace it has made.

So again, for me, the question is not how long this war will last, that is very important. Who will win? I can tell you. I cannot say what will happen after the war. One comment. What Netanyahu says at the end of the war.

The Gaza Strip will be Palestinian, but Israel reserves the right to guarantee its security. What the US Secretary of State says. No. Israel must withdraw completely from Gaza. So you can see that there is a huge fracture in US-Israeli relations, which is extremely rare.

– The situation of Hamas is either stabilized or destabilized by this conflict. Now they face the possibility that they may not be, because Israel will destroy them all, one by one. – The answer is that in principle yes, in practice no.

I’m sure my common sense tells me that a lot of Hamas leaders have never been to his house in recent times. They are happily living in Qatar or elsewhere, two, some of those who took part in the war have already escaped.

He went down to the southern area, wounded, however he got through Raface, or went anywhere else. There is the sea, I know that the sea is blocked. History has shown that every blockade can be played out. You can beat the ashes, yes.

Does this solve the problem for Israel in the short term, yes, but not in the long term. It’s incredibly interesting today, nobody dares to say, okay, there’s a conflict going on, simply put, since 1948, since the creation of Israel. Now that we were in the Middle Ages, XX. century we forget.

Tell me, what will happen after the war? Two state solutions yes or no. What does the two-state solution mean? In his speech, Ambar said he would commit to establishing a Palestinian state within the framework of a two-state solution, with three areas of Gaza. It is possible, not easy.

East Jerusalem, well, you had to get Jerusalem from Netanyahu, again, it’s not a simple game, and the West Bank. What is the essence of the situation in the West Bank? It is full of Jewish and Palestinian settlements, how come? Everything can be solved if I want.

For decades, I have always told my students that there are four things that need to be solved in the Middle East in order for there to be a solution. The status of Jerusalem. The water issue. The question of Palestinian refugees, the question of borders. I do not see this as a solution yet.

– The Palestinian Authority is being dealt the cards, in this conflict the Palestinian Authority was given Gaza when Israel withdrew from it. Then he had a choice, which he won. The Palestinian Authority is not there, Hamas is there in Gaza. – Ma.

But the gas into the gas, once it is smashed, a vacuum is created. History has taught us that there is no vacuum, someone goes in. If the window is clever, the Palestinians have just handed down the death sentence. I don’t know who reads about them every day.

Palestinians called on Abbas to either enter the war or resign. He didn’t do any of them, then they said they would give him the death sentence. This did not happen either. So it’s incredibly interesting that everybody here is also engaged in PR activities, Arabs, Jews,

Everybody in the region, countries that are around Israel, Jordan wants to reach an agreement, has already reached a peace agreement with Israel, Egypt has reached a peace agreement with Israel, doesn’t want Palestinians, doesn’t want Klebelsberg with domestic tensions.

He is not in a position to decide whether Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese army today. Syria: one after another, rockets come from Syria to Israel, and Israel always bombs the most important airports. So the question is what will happen to Abbas.

Abbas lists three areas, okay, but the three areas are not coherent. I apologise for saying this. Once upon a time, there was a mating. He was one of the best-known politicians of his time in the Middle East. Where the same thing came up, to divide the then Palestine into a

Jewish part, an Arab part, etc. And then they said that you can cross bridges, from one part to another, and Nasser said, excuse me, if a Palestinian pees off the bridge and pees on me, does that mean war? So it’s very easy to say the solution here in principle.

In reality, it is difficult to leave even one. Here, the two parties hate each other viscerally, and both believe in their own truth. This is completely different from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. They firmly believe that they are right and that God will help them, so it is terribly difficult.

– The second thing you mentioned is that the Palestinians are trying to put their cause back at the centre of world attention. When was the last time the issue of Palestinian statehood was at the centre of world attention? How was it taken down, and did it really bring it back into the spotlight?

– My feeling is that the last time it happened was during the wars. The history of the Middle East, the history of the wars, has for many years been the Palestinian one, so it has been relegated to the background.

Arab countries have not taken a stand either, they have given up on the Palestinians. Why? Because they wanted to come to an agreement with Israel, because they needed American support, because the Soviet Union had dropped out of the region, sorry.

What are the two leaders of the European Union saying today, that they will go in after the US and become the dominant powers in the Middle East. Well, I’m dying laughing. The European Union does not have the military capability to do this. What happened, crisis? What has the US done?

He sent two aircraft carriers, launched the third. What did he do? China has sent six warships. What has the US done? It started bombing Iranian bases in Syria. Well, excuse me, in Syria there are the Turks, the Americans, the Russians, the Iranians, so whoever counts.

What is Turkey doing? It is trying to join forces with the central powers in the region. With Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iranian head of state will now go to Ankara. So my answer is that the Palestinian issue has been far from the world’s attention for many, many years.

They have accepted that there are terrible things that the Israelis are doing, but that is not why we are going to war. Now that Hamas has launched this action, the world is paying attention again, and the reactions are incredibly interesting.

The British government has fallen into this, if you watched the events yesterday, the Home Secretary was sacked, the Foreign Secretary has gone to the Home Secretary, the former Prime Minister was brought in as Foreign Secretary, so it’s incredibly interesting across Western Europe that there’s a mass of

Protests, the Palestinians are in favour of Hamas, I’m just going to point out. But can the protests in Western Europe and Europe exert any pressure on Israel in a time of a concrete war? Or are they doing what they think they should be doing?

– My answer is that there’s only one country that can put pressure on this, and it’s called the United States of America. No one else. What Europe does, what Guterres says at the UN, brackets, the Spanish Prime Minister has now sacked Guterres for daring to go to Israel.

I don’t know how much the world pays attention. So everything changes. Israel doesn’t care, he notes, but he doesn’t care. But American politics is. What the US President said a few hours ago, that we support Israel, but restrain your actions with civilians.

Now, again, this is very difficult, because in Gaza, as everyone knows, there are military bases next to hospitals, kindergartens, schools. But the minute the situation is supported, attacked, world public opinion will turn even more away from noticing.

– Send the world public, are you not aware that underneath the hospitals and civilian facilities are bases of the Hamas terrorist organisation? My answer is that, on the one hand, he is less aware, and on the other, Palestinian propaganda is more effective than Israeli propaganda today.

It’s extremely interesting that Israel has been shown, they have amazing footage that was captured by cameras on the heads of the soldiers who went into Israel. Where you see newborn babies being slaughtered, roasted, parents being called up,

Here’s your baby, you don’t want to see it, you want to watch it roasted again, but Israel says it doesn’t want to make that public because it wants to negotiate from a position of strength, not weakness. From Budapest, I cannot decide whether Israel is right.

I wouldn’t do that, but I’m not in that position, thank God. – How to decode American words and actions. Some of it is public, obviously a significant part of it is not public, it never will be. – On the one hand, it is, and on the other hand, it is military, for example,

If you put two carriers there with the escorting personnel, who is that for? It’s for the Israelis, it’s for Iran, who has to understand what it means. – Brilliant, let’s start at the beginning. What is the US goal?

Israel should not be defeated, but the third world south should not turn against the US. Well, it’s a very interesting strategy, it’s what the US is pursuing. Two. It sends aircraft carriers there. Why? To protect Israel, but to prevent Israel from taking certain steps.

Well, I don’t know who remembers, a long time ago in the ’67 war, where the American ship there was shot down by Israel, because that ship was listening in on all Israeli phone conversations.

Then they said that they were living on a Soviet ship, not a word of it was true, and then they paid reparations for the dead, but from then on, Israeli internal conversations could not be intercepted, conversation.

To me, it is extremely odd that the Israeli government has announced that it has not been listening in on the conversations between Hamas leaders in Gaza for a year, because it has been listening in and there was nothing strange about it. I held my head that my common sense would not allow it.

So in this war, a lot of things happened that cannot be explained by the logic that has been used so far, obviously there is a huge role for chance, but that is not an explanation. – What does the Israeli public now want from its own government?

You can hear voices, even though you’re not there, you can’t check, that they’re criticising their own government quite sharply, very sharply, because the army has not protected the civilian population. – That’s right. – The myth in Israel for seventy-nine years has been that Israel is invincible.

This has now been overturned. Second, the political elite in Israel is extremely fragmented. It’s scattered. One of the far-right ministers who has now had to be sacked said that Palestinians should be sent out of Gaza, either to the desert or to Ireland. Now a minister cannot make such a stupid statement.

He said, if necessary, drop the bomb in Gaza. Since Gaza is on the border with Israel, I assume that the person in question does not have the slightest military knowledge of the population. What is the goal? POWs is the wrong word. He wants to get back the people who were taken away.

What has been Hamas’ response over the last few hours? Yes, if there is a five-day ceasefire, we will release 70 people, and we have released everyone who is still alive, for we don’t know how much, if Israel releases thousands of Palestinian prisoners from its jails. Israel is not willing to do this today.

There is a large part of the Israeli population that wants peace, but there is also the far right that wants a military victory at any cost, and there are those who have taken to the streets against Netanyahu, again I don’t know how much anyone reads the news, hundreds of Jews have

Been arrested for demonstrating for peace. So Israeli society is also divided on this issue. The reason I ask about the Israeli government being the master of its own society is that there are often reports about settlers, and the Americans are calling on

Israelis not to shoot Palestinians when they come across them. – That’s right. Many of the settlers are far-right and assume that they can do anything because the force is behind them. The force is always up to a point behind someone, and if I shoot him, he will shoot back sooner or later.

He may shoot back with parries, but he can still kill me. So it seems that the basic situations in the Middle East are not settled either. You are absolutely right today, the Israeli public is not united against the Palestinians, Netanyahu is an incredibly interesting politician.

It might be worth talking about the fact that his brother dying in action in Enteble, I don’t know if he’s saying, is something to somebody. From Uganda, the Jewish prisoners on the hijacked plane are freed, Jewish passengers, so it’s more accurate.

He becomes a national hero, and Matthew, the leader of the operation, dies. Netanyahu is 74 years old and there is enormous antipathy and sympathy for him. So today Israeli society is not united either, a new generation is obviously coming. Who is Israel’s most important partner?

Two of its neighbours, Jordan, Egypt, Egypt, condemned Israel. In Jordan, the King, and there was no precedent for this, refused to sit down with the US Secretary of State. So there are a lot of changes in the region, obviously Israeli intelligence is excellent, obviously prepared for everything, but not for this war.

– But what the consequences of that might be, if the intelligence that’s considered one of the best in the world is not necessarily a change in policy, a change in government, a lot of things. The question is whether the prisoners can be freed and how many of them are still alive.

What happened to them? I don’t want to go into it, because it’s a terrible thing. What happened to the women and girls who were caught? After the news that an eighty-something-year-old Holocaust survivor had been raped, I started to have a lot of questions. Now morale always plays a peripheral role in a war.

But how many prisoners are still alive? Can they be released? Will you allow them to be freed? How many Hamas leaders have escaped so far, where they will appear and what their future role will be. – But can Israel reach the Hamas leaders outside Gaza? Do you have the ability?

– The answer is that it has the capacity, the question is again whether it is politically expedient. So if the Israelite does it, he never admits that they did it. – They will never acknowledge it, but when the second leader is killed in, say, Qatar, the Qatari government

Will pay much more attention from then on, maybe even after the first one. I read the Qatari statements every day. What do they say? Every step is agreed with the US in advance. The US is also not happy about Hamas leaders being hunted down somewhere thousands of kilometres from Israel,

It may agree, but it will not accept it on the basis of political expediency. – It is clear what exactly the United States expects from Israel in this situation. – The answer is that what is in the national interest, the US national interest, is that Israel’s existence be maintained.

So it’s no coincidence that protesters in Western Europe who have a T-shirt that says “from the river to the sea” are somehow being restrained, and that means they don’t accept the existence of Israel. For the US, Israel’s existence is unquestionable, but all other things are questionable.

– Why Israel’s statehood, its existence, is unquestionable to the United States. – The reason it is the most important ally in the region is because it has been a bystander in the creation of Israel, because there is a very large Arab lobby in the US, which is now functioning,

And a long-standing, well-functioning Jewish lobby, so the US will not allow itself to be questioned about the disappearance of Israel, and is willing to go after Israel on all other issues at any time. – Can Israel afford to abandon kidnapped people to their fate and risk their lives in an attack?

– If I were a politician now, I would say never, with tears in my eyes. Being just a stupid university professor, I say that kidnapped people are extremely important, but secondary. The priority is military victory. Second-rate they are, but second-rate and noble ingenuity.

– How much does it change the situation that the United States now seems to have to focus on two major conflicts. Israel and Ukraine. Does it take away your strength, reduce your strength? It’s a difficult question, because from Hungary’s point of view, the entire Eastern European region

Does not have as many aircraft as the United States has now with these three carriers, and that’s a fraction of their military force. – You have given the answer. Of course, in the United States, everything has always been calculated. There is no time to go through the US security policy concepts.

But the real turning point is John Fitzgerald Kennedy, who turns 60 in a few days. anniversary of his murder. What does Kennedy say about replacing the sword and shield theory? What has been the principle so far? The sixties. If anywhere in the Soviet Union is attacked by a massive nuclear strike III.

World War II. What does Kennedy say? If there is an attack anywhere, three Soviet divisions, let’s confront it with three Western divisions. This was unacceptable to the Germans at the time. What is the situation today? The United States is prepared, always ready for how many big wars and how many small ones.

You have listed two conflicts, you are right, I will add a third, there is a landscape. Can the US prepare for this? Yes, but there is a problem. There was once Henry Kissinger who went over to Beijing to negotiate. I know that Kissinger is not my subject, unfortunately.

And he managed to play the Soviet Union and China, the two leading communist powers of the time, off against each other in a fantastic way. This is Kissinger’s theory of world politics. What is American politics today? It was announced that we have two main enemies, China and Russia. China in first place.

Kissinger, I can’t say he’s spinning in his grave, because thank God he’s alive, he was 100 years old on May 27th, and he just went to meet with Xi Jinping and was received by Xi Jin Ping, but everything that’s connected with his life’s work has been kicked over by the US administration.

I always say that the poor US president is incompetent at everything, but the State Department, Pentagon, CIA experts behind him are brilliant. You can like the bike or not like the bike, but what it does, it does brilliantly. Let me put it another way.

The US is ready and able to act in its interests in the Middle East, including the Middle East on the Russian-Ukrainian front, where there is a huge shift in US strategy and the Taiwan issue. – What is the change in the US strategy on the Russian-Ukrainian front?

– The minute the Israeli war started, the front was devalued. 2. I apologise, what is the third sanction cluster? 12. When will the first sanctions package be adopted the day before the outbreak of the war, which the sanctuary fundela was so well informed or genius, because the European intelligence

Leaders, with the exception of the British, all reported that there would be no war. The day before von der Leyen imposes sanctions, Russia has gone off the rails, only to be told that Europe has shot itself in the foot.

I’ve always said that he’s hit a bit above, that the situation in Europe is disastrous. The sanctions have devalued Europe. What does the US say now? So far, I have given €1.1 billion a month to Ukraine. Now I’m bringing that down to 0.80 something, so a 20-25 percent reduction.

What is Europe asking us to replace. What did Europe say? I’m amazed that Europe is now willing to pay half of Ukraine’s budget deficit? Okay. From what? Every day I look at the positions of different European countries. The arsenals were practically emptied.

Europe is in an unbelievably difficult situation in terms of security policy, and this is compounded by the most stupid statements. What did the former NATO Secretary General say yesterday, let’s take Ukraine without the Russian-occupied territories in between. I do not understand. These are intelligent people. How can you say such stupid things? A.

You cannot take over a country that is at war with two. With Zelensky’s refusal to give up territory, this would mean an immediate third world war situation for three. Zelensky has already tried to persuade Europe, when a Ukrainian missile hit Poland, and others to act against Russia as NATO’s fifth headquarters.

So I don’t understand. The US strategy is showing. The key question now is what kind of US leadership will come next year. – But the attitude towards Ukraine depends on the quality of the US leadership. There seemed to be bipartisan agreement on Ukraine in the United States.

– The answer is that yes, when an election is coming up, there is never agreement on anything. The election is coming. From then on, each side wants to create its own concept. Both presidential candidates are in their eighties. This raises a lot of dilemmas.

If you look, Biden has no challenger at the moment, I can’t understand why they can’t find a man, woman, white, coloured, 50-55 years old, he’s absolutely anything, in the United States who is fit to lead the US for two terms. Biden is not suitable.

There is an amazing campaign against Trump, we will see what effect it will have, it may be counterproductive. – What is the European Union’s interest in the Russian aggression in Ukraine. – The European Union is different from the leadership. Today, the leadership is fully aligned behind the United States of America.

I find it very strange that von der Leyen is now saying that we are going to be a global player. Well, for decades Europe has not been. The First and Second World Wars were fought in Europe. After the First World War, there is one winner, and that is the USA.

All other countries are bleeding to death. We will never say that more British citizens died in the First World War than in the Second. World War II has two winners – the USA, the Soviet Union, but the Soviet Union is incredibly bled out, but victorious. So today Europe is not global.

What do they say? We do not buy Russian oil, natural gas, excellent. We’ll buy the American graduation for many times the price. They blow up the northern power, one or two of them. Stupider and stupider theories are coming out, pardon the expression, about who they were.

Now the last time is that of a Ukrainian colonel, but Zelensky did not know about it. Zelensky knows everything, but no one knows anything. Now Zelensky has ideas like that, I’ll put my head in my hands, what does Zelensky say,

That the Ukrainian Defence Minister had to be replaced because he stole, brackets everyone steals, but he only stole Ukrainian money, there is no Ukrainian money, he stole American money, what does Zelensky say, he didn’t steal American money.

So everything in Ukraine has been distorted to such an extent that it is incredible to say anything. I recently spoke to the mayor of Berehove about two weeks ago, and he told me to understand that he is very much under attack in and abroad.

He is building a Ukrainian monument, because if he doesn’t, they will destroy the Hungarian monuments there, including the one to the Hungarian War II. Ferenc Rákóczi, and he said that today, anyone who says anything other than Zelensky is said to be a bad spy. Excuse me, what has just happened in Ukraine?

The music, issued about a week ago, is all some wisdom saying that every day the Ukrainian army should advance 500 to 1,000 meters. They have not taken a step forward. What does the Chief of General Staff say that the Ukrainian army must defend itself, what does Zelensky say that it must attack.

What is being said now is that in the future the military leadership will be appointed by the soldier and not the head of state. This morning it was put to me that three senior soldiers are to be replaced. We’ll see what happens, but nothing will change. Training has started with the F-16s.

I assume that the Russians are prepared for this. Brackets. Four airports can receive F-16s, all other Ukrainian airports are not in a condition to receive F-16s. – But what will be the outcome? Will the new state border be drawn there at the demarcation line?

– My answer is that they will reach an agreement in the foreseeable future, they must reach an agreement, because Ukraine is exhausted. I am sure that the Russians are not even willing to negotiate about Crimea. – Nor do the Ukrainians. – So far, they say that the Crimea is ours.

In the first month of the war, they said we would give up the cream for ten to twenty years, then there would be a trial, and then they backed down. If you look at the statement made by former German Chancellor Schröder a few days ago, it’s all there.

In the other four areas, it is very interesting that all of the four areas are part Russian, part Ukrainian, some are almost 100% Russian, but not 100%. My answer is that from now on there has to be some kind of compromise in these four areas. I have a much uglier question.

Everyone is talking about what you asked about, what will the Ukrainian-Russian border be? Tell me, what will happen at Ukraine’s western borders? What will be the Polish-Ukrainian border? What will the Romanian-Ukrainian border look like? This is something that science should be discussing now, because from a political point of view,

If anyone brings this up, the Ukrainians will immediately sell it down the river and say that he is Putin’s agent. – But borders are not only for politicians to negotiate? – Can soldiers still negotiate about it? – You have to go forward.

– Science could pave the way for what the solution will be, and prepare politicians across the region and the world. I don’t see that happening today, although a ceasefire could happen at any time if the opposition is sidelined or if it becomes clear that Ukraine is exhausted.

If I look, what does Zelensky say? Come home from the West, soldiers join the army. They have no idea. What does Zelensky’s chief of staff say, whoever doesn’t come home will be tried after the war. Tell me, when will it be after the war?

Why would the Koraza come, and where will this Ukrainian government be then? Well, it was on the news this morning that a bus driver was taken from his hotel at night and conscripted into the army. – This is not quite normal in a war when there are six commitments.

– Then yes, if I have the people I call up, but at the moment every single person who exists is being called up, the limits of conscription are being pushed up and down, women are being taken away because there are not enough people, and it seems that there is no

Question of volunteering, you say conscription. Two days ago, Ukraine announced that it will have a professional army from 2028. There are two conditions, man, you don’t have it, and you don’t have the money. Now we could talk about anything from here on.

– If, as you say, Ukraine’s western borders also need to be rethought, then this means that the countries neighbouring Ukraine need to prepare for a border revision, because rethinking means that the border will not be where it is now. – It’s in there, but that’s not what I mean.

It was terribly difficult for the Poles in World War II. World War II, where Churchill said at the end of the war that Poland was making friends and taking three steps forward. Odera receives colour-German territories and gives up colour-Polish territories to the Soviet Union. What the Polish government so far says.

We will see what kind of government the next one will be, etc. So that’s another conversation again. What does the current Polish government say? I don’t want a territorial revision, but I do want the former Polish territories to be integrated into the Polish economic mainstream. This is impossible to interpret.

This means that I will not take the areas, but they will be part of the Polish economy from now on. Two, how will Ukraine repay its debts? If I look at the 10-point peace plan of Zelensky, which has nothing to do with reality.

Taking territories from the Russians, huge Russian reparations, etc., again nothing will come of it. What will the West get for the money it gives, factories, the best land, what will Ukraine have left? Today, no one dares to raise this question in the political arena, because anyone who does is

Immediately sold down the river by the Ukrainians. – If the war ends and Russia keeps the territories it has occupied so far. Does it follow that someone else could launch a war of aggression in this region? – My answer is that anyone can start a war of aggression at any time.

Well, once I look at the number of wars of aggression from ’45 onwards by Britain, France, USA. I can find plenty of examples of this. Only now the world is going after the Russians, which is the goal.

In the first round they lost the GDR, only then it was called the Soviet Union, in the second round all the European ex-socialist countries become NATO EU members at various times, and then the Soviet break-up begins. We are talking about the situation in Ukraine, you are right.

But we are not talking about the fact that the three Baltic countries have withdrawn in a matter of seconds and can join NATO, while the Russians living there are not guaranteed any minority rights, and we are not talking about the fact that the former Asian Soviet republics, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc.

What strategy will they follow? In this region, China, Russia, the USA and Turkey are fighting to the death. Nobody talks about that either. But if I look at Tokayev’s policy in Kazakhstan, it seems that he has been trying to balance it very skilfully so far.

So, to put it another way, there have been, are and will be wars of territorial acquisition, only now we are doing it in a way that takes us by surprise. I always say that there are about 30 wars going on on Earth at the moment.

Of these, we’ve highlighted one Russian-Ukrainian, we’re highlighting two plus Gaza, but we’re not talking about all the others, whereas in Ethiopia, in Somalia, there are sixty places, millions of places in the world where there are wars like this. – The fate of the Kazakhstani people, he mentioned Kashim-Zsomar Tokayev, who is balancing.

The others may also adopt a balancing policy, which means that they want to keep a greater distance. – And they are trying to represent their national interests. – Do they have the power or the raw materials? – They have the raw material, and that means money, and money means power.

It is very interesting. If I look at Kazakhstan: excuse me, 50 percent of the population was Russian 15 years ago. Every year it goes down because more and more people are going back to Russia. So the future of this region will be very interesting.

At some point, we should look at the European Union’s strategy towards these states. What is the Chinese strategy? Silk Road. Okay, but what does this mean specifically for these states? What is the Russian strategy, besides space centre, etc., etc. So we never talk about that. The world hardly knows these regions.

– But there is a document on the European Union’s strategy towards China. – Not the Chinese document. – It was not a Chinese strategy, it was a strategy towards the former Soviet republics. – There is no bilateral relationship. Hungary, for example, has excellent relations with these countries, including Kazakhstan.

– The only question is whether this group of countries can be managed in such a way that in the future it will be an independent group of countries from Moscow and Beijing. I cannot give you the answer, because these will be the big questions of the future: whether it

Is worth bringing capital there, whether it is worth developing bilateral relations. These are strategic issues. – It is worth investing there when these countries gain greater independence from Russia. – And in the long run, they guarantee that if I take a company there, I’ll take mine now. – That’s right. Of course.

Well, in many parts of the world, I can take a company there and they can take it away from me in a matter of seconds. So it’s no coincidence that in much of the world today capital is not going. There has been no closure for decades, and this region is at risk.

This is one of the things that happened. – In these conflicts, is NATO’s business in Ukraine and Russia, or is it only NATO members’ business in these countries. – The countries are NATO. NATO always announces that it is not part of the conflict.

I’ll take two swallows and believe it, because I don’t want to question it, but the previous NATO Commander-in-Chief said something extremely stupid. The current NATO Secretary General apologises, he said that NATO is not involved in the conflict, but he asks countries to help as much as possible.

The German government announced two days ago that it is giving Ukraine €4.4 billion so far and €8 billion next year. This is the first time in its history that Germany has met NATO’s requirement to spend 2 percent of GDP on defence, but these are completely new elements.

NATO is not involved on paper, but let’s be clear about one thing – NATO is the conventional armed forces in Europe. They are much stronger than the Russians. So if NATO were to attack, the country would have no choice but to use nuclear weapons.

But NATO is not attacking, thank God, so the use of nuclear weapons is not on the agenda today, thank God. – Can NATO trust the Russians, and can the Russians trust NATO, pardon the expression, not to escalate the situation to the point of nuclear war?

– Well, the answer is that trust has played a really big role in history, very rarely. It is a game of interests, NATO has no interest in the III. World War II and the Russians, because the world would be destroyed.

I read it every day that I always say that when the war is over, the Russians will invade the Baltic. Why would they invade? Nobody wants to get into a military confrontation with a NATO country, including the Russians,

But there is no question of trust, and the trust that existed at the end of the Cold War has disappeared. What kind of country will Ukraine be after the end of the war? Well, my answer is that a country coming out of an exploited, backward, defeated war,

Where the population will wonder whether it was worth all the dead wounded, all the mentally wounded, compared to what the war has done, losing territory to other countries, could have done that in the first weeks of the war.

I have just been attacked for daring to say what I have been saying for a year and a half. I don’t know if anyone has just noticed. I say this every day, that the war was started by Russia, but provoked by Ukraine.

The fact that he murdered Russians, that he burned buildings on Russians and the Russians in them. So you can’t do that to the citizens of a great power. For much less, the US went to a Central American island and occupied it. China is much less active against the space bugs.

So, to put it another way, the situation is terribly difficult, because today in the war it is clear what NATO has said, that Russia can be defeated, it cannot be defeated. A leading nuclear power, in two leading nuclear powers, the US and Russia. It cannot be beaten.

– After a lost war, a country with a reduced territory cannot become a stronger nation. We are also a loser country, on a reduced territory, but we are still a nation. – Yes, but here’s the problem, there are a lot of Russians in Ukraine.

I don’t know how well you know that ten years ago, diplomats from all over the world were asked to stop speaking Ukrainian, that no one understood it, and to speak Russian. Today, if any diplomat speaks Russian they are told that it is Ukraine speaking Ukrainian.

So the national consciousness has changed, but a large part of the population is fed up with war, suffering, misery, and those who know it have left Ukraine, just as they left Russia, but to leave they needed money, contacts, etc.

Russia is not fed up with war, or they are not at war yet, they think the answer is that whoever is in the political decision making, see Putin daily says he is willing to negotiate, for example with German Chancellor Scholz, but the average Russian feels little of this war.

The Russians are careful to call in the border areas and preferably nationalities from the border areas, because the cities are less likely to notice, and St Petersburg, Moscow and so on. – The Russian middle class, which is not allowed to travel much, only to specific areas.

He is not fed up with war either. – They are not asked. Sorry Russia and Ukraine are also a kind of dictatorship. Now the MSZP has announced that it refuses to hold elections because there is a war on, and elections would cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and it doesn’t give out

Money for that, Putin gives it out, and Putin gets it from the West. What will be the election result you want? I always say that there’s an Egyptian proverb that it’s not who you vote for, it’s how you count the votes. – China, is China getting stronger in these conflicts?

Of course, what does China do anyway? He is obviously doing business with everyone. Of course, it has an interest in peace through the Silk Road, and if I look, in most of the world China has beaten the US in foreign trade, even in the Americas, Canada, Mexico and one Central

American state, not one, in all the other states, China’s foreign trade with that country is stronger than that country’s foreign trade with the US. Occupying Taiwan? – Well I know we have little time, I really like this question. I have been to China six times and Taiwan once. What is the point?

– Coming up, sorry, the question is not even sure if it will take Taiwan back. – That’s right. – Or what are you doing? – Let’s start at the beginning. Japanese, Taiwan was the only region that was not invaded because the Taiwanese said they were related to Japan.

Let’s not go into that, it’s again a matter of opinion. Two. Where does Taiwan turn, ’49. 1 October, 1 September, depending on what date I pick, when the People’s Republic of China is proclaimed. The defeated Shanghai with the remnants of the army, the entire Chinese gold set,

And everything of value goes to Taiwan, and from then on Taiwan is in turmoil. What did Mao Tse-tung say to Kissinger at the time? I’m in my early 70s. We can’t take Taiwan back because in 1950 we went to war with the United States against Korea under Soviet

Pressure, so we can’t take Taiwan back for a hundred years. What today’s Chinese leadership says is true, but 75 out of 100 years have passed. So very, very interesting, Taiwan will not give up on China. What is the Chinese principle? The world order today works against me without me.

I was not involved in the creation of this world order as the People’s Republic of China. What’s next? Someone tell me who my main enemy is if Russia invades Siberia. Today it is working with Russians, so it is off the agenda.

There are fifty pairs of rails, I looked at one place, and there’s an incredible amount of goods going from here to there on the Chinese-Russian border. My other main enemy, the US announced, I will occupy Taiwan without a world war.

China and the United States are negotiating in Hungarian in many forums, if China invades Taiwan, occupies Taiwan, whatever, it cannot lead to a world war. What is the problem? That there was once a Hong Kong where what he said about China was brilliant.

One country, two societies. What is the problem that you have not complied? Hong Kong will hate the People’s Republic of China, which is fine with China. But the same principle has been proclaimed in Taiwan, that one country, two societies, and for Taiwan this is unacceptable. China doesn’t care, but the world does.

– Thank you very much! In the last hour, György Nógrádi, university professor and security policy expert, was a guest of Inforádió Arena. My editorial colleague Ágnes Szécsy and editor-in-chief Márton Módos participated in the preparation of the programme. The conversation has now been recorded.

If you found it interesting, please subscribe to the Youtube channel of the Inforadio. Thank you for your attention I am Tibor Exterde.