Join us for a dynamic and rich exchange to explore the latest findings revealed in the 10 New Insights in Climate Science report and their role within the context of COP28. Speaker include:
– Peter Schlosser Vice President and Vice Provost of Global Futures at Arizona State University & Co-chair of The Earth League
– Johan Rockström Director of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & Co-chair of The Earth League
– Sandrine Dixson-Declève President, The Club of Rome
– Laura Pereira University of the Witwatersrand & Stockholm University
To learn more about the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University and the work we are doing to develop opportunities for a future where all of Earth’s inhabitants may thrive, visit us at https://globalfutures.asu.edu/join.
Good afternoon and welcome to this session of the introduction of 10 new insights in climate science some of you might have had the chance to listen to the press conference yesterday so for some of you there might be some repetition but today we will have a
Chance to go a little bit deeper into the uh discussion of what the insights mean and also give you a bit a sense of how they came to pass uh my name is Peter schoser I’m vice president vice proos at Arizona State University and I’m also the director of the Julie and
Rickley Global Futures laboratory I will lead through this session the session will have several segments first I just will put a bit of context around the tenni then Johan rockstrom will introduce the 10 new insights then we have three uh distinguished panelists we have Laura Pereira srin Dixon LCL and
Carlos nobre who will give about five minutes each of their impression of what a 10 new insights mean uh then we will have a conversation with the panelists and close with question and answers moderated by by Johan so just a bit of context this is the seventh edition of
The 10 new insights in climate science they were initially conceived by the Earth League they are now um produced and distributed by Future earth the earth league and the world climate research program initially the name actually was different Johan reminds me of that here in there initially it was
Meant to the name was the 10 must knows and it was meant to provide some fundamental level of knowledge about the climate system for negotiators and and policy makers then as we moved on we we felt yeah there must be a learning effect in that community so we go from
Must knows to the 10 new insights as we moved along long we also felt that what initially was a summary of what the group of authors felt were the 10 new uh insights and their content that this also should be vetted by the scientific community and so we started to produce a manuscript
That is being submitted each year before the launch the official launch of the 10 tenic and published in global stainability so this year the acceptance of the manuscript just happened a few weeks ago as you might imagine the timeline is short if you have to have a turnaround
Within one year but the manuscript has been submitted and accepted and is now available at the website of the journal uh Global sustainability so if you want to have a full version of what went into the policy report then you can can find it there the
Uh uh 10ni is uh overseen by an editorial board of about 10 members but the input is and then the content is written by a larger number of scientists this year we had 67 scientists from 24 countries so that gives you a bit of sense of uh what kind of input we get
And how it is actually and reviewed um the new insights are also a final point I wanted to make are not meant to substitute other procedures for example the IPC reports they are meant to be a Nimble instrument to capture every year what has happened in the last
Year and to put that together in a way that is informative for those who are negotiating and those who are making decisions so they are uh really a part A means for us to capture what is in the literature that is not older what what has been published in the literature
It’s not older than two years with focus on what came out over the year since the last uh publication of of the tenni so with that let’s get to the tenic for 23 and uh Johan will lead through that uh picking out a few of them specifically
But also give you a sense of what the package as a whole is giving us this year yeah thanks um Peter and um a really good summary of what the 10 Nicks is which actually means that this is I mean in in the in the vast volume of
Reports released at each cop meeting the 10x has a very special position uh it really is an effort from the scientific Community to offer all the negotiators who are here they’re really easy to read a quick summary of the 10 most important advancements in science over the last 12
Months so at the press conference we do actually ceremoniously hand this over to the United Nations framework convention and expect in this case Simon steel as head of unfc to also hand it over and and kind of reach out to all the negotiating teams here and this year’s
Tenx is um particularly let’s say a hot document in relation to the ongoing negotiations because the number one is the conclusion which is now quite well established unfortunately both in the ipccc and in um science coming after the 2021 2022 release that 1 and a half de Cel Remains the
Climate limit that we should have as our uh Benchmark that we’re aiming for but it’s inevitable to reach 1.5 without accepting a period of overshoot now this overshoot period is is analyzed in the 10 Nicks there’s a lot of publication behind it at best we’re talking about 3
Four Decades of a risk of between 0.1 to 0.3 deg CSUS of over Sho meaning that we pass through the 1.5° celus limit sometime between 2030 and 2035 to come back to 1.5 by the end of this century and why is this so absolutely fundamental also for the negotiations
Well it is of course because the conclusion on why do we return what is that brings us back to 1.5 while two criteria needs to be fulfilled which are captured in this year’s 10 Nicks number one is the third assessment here that we need to have credible large scale scaling of carbon
Dioxide removal Technologies everything from ccs to carbon capture utilization to direct air capture Technologies but also major investments in the 10 Nix number uh four on U Being Sober in our assessment of the role of nature climate Solutions so basically nature and Technology are the only
Factors that can bring us back after an overshoot period and this gives a lot of scientific support why we also now need to talk about fossil fuel phase out as our our uh aim for the discussions here at uh cup 28 because of the uncertainties related to the scalability
The overshoot and the permanence of carbon in nature climate Solutions so all of this is captured in in a really um sharp and a straightforward way in the 10 Nicks let me also single out two more of of the Nicks conclusions that we have uh this year so you have this package of
Overshoot Rapid fossil fuel phase out and scaling of CDR and the permanence of nature climate Solutions which are the one to four uh we also have on the fifth uh inside something that is really really heated in the disc discussions right now which is the need to recognize
That the biosphere and the climate are a fully integrated system and that interactions between uh what happens on the biodiversity convention work has to interact very closely with what’s happening on the climate action the drivers are the same over consumption inequity uh the the way we run the global
Economy and they are completely interdependent so interdependent that even if we would phase out fossil fuels if we do not address biosphere resilience properly we will still miss out on the Paris uh targets or the limit of 1.5 so that is in our um uh number
Five uh insight and let me just close with a final one which I personally find to be um perhaps not not a surprise but we haven’t heard much that in the discussions which is the Insight number eight on human immobility we have a very strong Focus rightly how climate change
And environmental change um undermines livelihoods among vulnerable communities causing risks of U uh displacement migration and even being an amplifier of conflict so this is the straight line of climate impacts on on displacing and moving people out of their Geographic homes for livelihoods what this Insight is summarizing is the latest science
Showing that you have the reverse Trend as well that the most vulnerable communities when hit by climate change lose so much of their agency so much of their Capital so much of their ability to rise in that crisis that they actually get stuck as as immobility being um the the consequence of climate
Change and this is also an additional element in the whole loss and damage discussion which is also Central in the in the negotiations here so I hope this gives you a bit of a flavor of of what we’re trying to do here to to connect place science closer to the
Policy debate here at um at the cup meeting back to you Peter is the mic on yeah now the mic is on thank thank you Johan so we will now hear from uh our panelists Laura srin and Carlos and uh to save us time I will uh not read through the lengthy bios
That all of them have with all their accomplishment leave it up to them to just introduce themselves very briefly when they start to make their comments I will start with with Laura and what they will do is they will give you their take on the on the 10 uh Nicks from from
Their own perspective their own experience their own field so Laura back over to you thank you so much for that this is on yes um so my name is Lara Pereira I an associate professor at the global change Institute at Vitz University in Johannesburg South Africa um and my initial comments and insights
Um really that you know as Yan is mentioning this this number one Insight um 1.5 degrees is fast becoming inevitable um and I think that rather than seeing that as as this really emotional response of oh no of just of giving up of like what
Is it we it should be rather seen as is how do we open up the kinds of transformative interventions that’s actually going to keep us in the safe space of of 1.5 degrees it’s really should be a galvanized a call to action to actually say no hold on a second this
Is not a threshold that we want to cross um and I think some of the other insights actually give us a little bit of insight as to what it is we do need to do around that um and in particular in sight number five on sort of the the fundament Al interconnectivity between
Sort of biodiversity the biosphere and the climate and how we actually can’t see these at se as separate issues they’re fundamentally connected um and we need to really start addressing these with systemic interventions so I think that’s um that’s a really important Insight that I’m sure we’re going to
Unpack a little bit more as we go forward um Insight number nine on operationalizing justice so this is not just a question of kind of this biophysical point that we’re reaching this impacts people’s lives it impacts people’s um ancestral homes in in space this is an existential threat that we’re
Facing and so when we’re looking at more effective climate adaptation which is going to be critical as we say right now we know we’re going to need to adapt over the coming decades to um to various different climate threats that the Justice aspect of that needs to be
Central in these discussions and I think that’s another really important insight and then finally Insight number 10 is on reforming Food Systems again to contribute to just climate action I think you’re seeing a lot of the word just sort of starting to come through these insights and I think that needs to
Be foregrounded um the kinds of Transformations um that that are called for within our food system that are appropriate in different contexts that sort of understand culture and nutritional needs as well as sort of the environmental limits within which we set is is another big challenge that we have
But it’s also an opportunity that we need to leverage in order to to get ourselves onto a pathway that that is not actually seeing us um going into this into this Danger on than thank you Laura and and Laura makes two important points one is that um we cannot go in in
View of the 1.5 from deniers to fatalists we have to see that even if we are exceeding 1.5 we can come back to it and you know it it is pretty clear that we will run through 1.5 so the question is then as Johan already pointed out how
Long will we be in overshoot and when will we we come back um so that’s uh that that’s really clear to keep in mind so srin uh what’s your take on this year’s and new insights thank you so much Peter and it’s such a pleasure to
Be here I’m sandreen Dixon deev and I am the co-president of the club of Rome I also chair a series of different working groups at the European level on research and Innovation and the societal and economic impacts of research and Innovation this report could not be more
Timely and I really think that is the key point it’s not only timely because of where we are and top discussions and some of the outbreaks around how much of the science truly proves the need to move quite fast in particular on the phase out of fossil energy but it also
Could not be more timely in terms of the key questions that we’re asking ourselves as to how we can truly decarbonize and the role of some of the solutions that we have every single one of the points brings out a real dilemma and discussion point that we are all facing as scientists
Economists um leaders within the business community and government officials it is a report that in particular also brings in the jux toos of the need for both policymaking that is tough and ambitious but also the governance Frameworks that are going to enable us to actually move forward so I
Want to highlight a few key points one is that number two which talks about a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase out is underpinned by the science that is in this report and new insights and so I urge you all to read it and also to
Bring it into your own discussions as we roam around the corridors of the it also brings out the very important point that we’ve been making myself and Johan around the fact that cops need to be reformed to take into consideration science and in particular the newest
Science that we have to date there is a tendency not to inject science in fact some of you may know 0.5% of the participants at this cop are scientists that is a real difficulty not only are they only 0.5% but they don’t have access to the negotiations and the
Discussions the other key point which is fundamental is how do we ensure that we look at carbon dioxide removal and that it doesn’t become a crutch within the negotiations for not doing what we need to do on the reduction of emissions in particular from fossil fuel energy and of course
Also from land use and also from transport and all of the other sectoral issues that we have before us and so maybe the the last key point that I want to bring up is as both myself and Johan are sitting on the climate governance commission that these governance issues
Are not just ones around how we can bring in the different negotiations whether they be on biodiversity on desertification on climate but also how do we make sure that we put in place the governance Frameworks that we need we have a big issue around geoengineering and we know that that is
Going to slowly blow up we do not have the governance Frameworks that we need for that so governance is fundamental at the international level at the regional level and at the national level uh thank thank you sine and uh sandrin brings up a very important point
That we that we really should uh keep in mind and that is what often is is uh short-handed as the moral argument and you know which means we are just doing um negative emissions to be able to emit more it is difficult enough to uh you know uh
With cutting all the emissions that we can as fast as we can to get to Net Zero with negative emissions so I I think those who are knowledgeable will will not fall into that trap but this smth is still out there that we simply want to have negative emissions so that we can
Keep burning fossil fuels so we really I think we we have to be a voice in trying to you know diffuse that myth because I’m I’m always surprised how strong it comes up here and there again it’s it’s just not dying away yeah Palos what what’s your what’s your take you have
Been part of that process in since many years so what do you think about the 23 version yes um I’m Carlos no from Brazil University of s Paulo and I’ve been working for more than 40 years with the Amazon so I will raise some issues here particular uh the new insights number
Four and five the near future and future contribution of natural carbon sink and I will tell you that for the Amazon this this strategy is very risky if we do not move in that way uh for the Amazon and also of course the Interlink climate and biodiverse
Emergency all over the planet but in particular for tropical forest so basically we know if you look at all the Tipping points of the earth system the Amazon reforest is there it’s very close to the spping point that we call silanization the Amazon forest if evoled eological geological Evolution over 40
Million years since the end is uplift and uh really it became the largest Forest 6.5 million square kilometers towards 150 billion to 2 to 100 billion tons of carbon below and above the soil has the largest by diversity in the planet tremendous Evolution ecological and physical evolution of uh ecosystem
Service for instance recycling water very effectively increases rainfall by 50% decreases temperature by 3 to 5 degrees so all tropical forest behave that way but the Amazon as well however we are very close to the Tipping Point why because we have this synergistic combination of global warming which is
Inducing all over the planet but in the Amazon severe droughts long time ago there was one severe drought every two decades now we have two very severe droughts every decade 2005 2010 2015 16 20 23 and we’ll move to 24 that is already the record-breaking
Drought in the Amazon and this is El Neo and this is tropical North Atlantic warmer so and also severe drugs induce uh also a longer dry season and then we have also land use change uh fures replace more than 1 million square kilometers in the Amazon theg graded
Pasture do not recycle water during the dry season the forest recycles water more in the dry season than in the wet season so what’s this is the synergist combination of more severe droughts and uh not recycling water in the degraded Forest the area so that’s why we say uh
And why I say we have as I said 1 million square kilometers the force another million square kilometer degraded why we say we are very close the Tipping Point because the dry season in all over Southern Amazon is four to five weeks lengthier in 40 years
One week per decade one week per decade so the the biome which is uh in in relevant if the dry season becomes six months is tropical Savannah there is no tropical forest with long dry season so if we continueing that way in two to three more decades the Amazon will turn
Into uh exceeds the Tipping Point that means within 30 to 50 years 250 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted just to say so that’s why I say uh you know this SP uh how important is the natural carbon sink but not only for removing CO2 from the atmosphere but
Really to maintain the dry season to maintain the dry season not to keep it becoming longer and longer so those will be the two very important ecosystem service but of course we are talking about and I just finish uh by saying uh two days ago Brazilian government launched a project called Arc of
Restoration so Brazil will look for big invesments $30 billion to restore 24 million hectares of these highly de forced areas in southern Amazon and that will remove 10 to 13 billion tons of car over 30 to 50 years but most importantly the secondary Force grows very fast
Recycles water very well so that will be the way to avoid the tpping point so I would like to make that comment for the Amazon this number four is really the one but we have to keep it not only to removing that would remove a lot of
Carbon but it’s mostly we preserve to prevent the Amazon Rich ITP point thank you Carlos very important uh message about uh an iconic part of the earth system carbon system that often is not seen as clearly as you as you laid it out here sandrin back to to
1.5 um so you know when in 2015 the uh targets were set there were also conditions to say what it does it take to get to one .5 and sadly we are badly behind you know we are a negative time on on on all fronts in emission
Cuts but also in the upscaling of negative emissions so in in your opinion will we actually be able to turn that corner and what will it take to turn that corner so so Peter I don’t want to bring in the Doomsday um scenarios but um we
Have to remember that the club of Rome published its first report the limits to growth in 1972 and already in that report it actually demonstrated that there could be the potential of a scenario where we would have 400 parts per million of carbon in the atmosphere right and and
Here we are and that we would actually have tipping points in 2020s so we don’t have another 50 years that that’s Point number one um can we turn the arc can we actually I think that as the work that we’ve done um with Johan and others has shown through Earth forall a survival
Guide for Humanity where we have two key scenarios the too little too late scenario which demonstrates that it’s business as usual and that’s today’s scenario I mean that is that is what we’re experiencing right now which is push back on the reduction of fossil fuel emissions um entrenched interests
And a variety of different sectors not moving fast enough to really reach our 50% reduction goal by 2030 of emissions and also then decades after um but we do have have what we call the giant leap scenario and and the giant leap scenario very much takes into consideration every
Single one of these insights which is first of all we need to look at land use we must address the reform of our agricultural system and move towards regeneration we must obviously transform our Energy System not just on the supply side but also on the demand side Energy
Efficiency is fundamental and let’s not forget that the best energy is the one you don’t use but we also and this is something that is not reflected as much in this report which is completely normal but is something that was a little bit of an aha moment for for us when we produced
Actually Earth for all which is the social tipping points poverty and inequality those two very key turnarounds in our report indicate that if we do not look at poverty inequality we will not actually be within our planetary boundaries and actually the speed of action on and change on the
Planetary boundaries is directly linked to the speed of action of eradicating inequality and also poverty so I also think we get so fixated on technology on the science and we forget the human Dimension we forget the fact that What’s blocking us as well as an over financialized economic system that is servicing
Investment first and foremost shareholder value and in particular profits and not actually servicing people or Planet so we need to look at New Economic indicators and within that scenario that I’m talking about the giant leap we do bring in the New Economic indicators we very much look at
The new Financial architecture that we mean that means that cancellation that means special drawing rights we look at the science obviously and how you match the science with the transformation needed within our energy our food system our transport system and all the different emitters that will’ll need to
Reduce but it is a total package of five key turnarounds to actually reach that giant leap yeah and srin make makes a very important point which is if we are looking at the Earth system we often are too focused on the environmental systems and in essence the environmental systems
Are under pressure because we made choices that put them there and now they’re getting back at us so this this feedback loop is sometimes not fully appreciated and you know a lot of it is value system so talking about value systems and linking that to Food Systems
Uh Laura um as we are as we all know without a fundamental change of the food system we cannot reach the the goals that we have set for ourselves so what what is it that we can use as an incentive for people to help change that
Food system because you know we we can change agricultural practices as much as we want if what we produce is not being accepted if the the the societal acceptance is not there we will not succeed so so what what can we do to push that system to a new to a new
State if I had the answer I don’t think we’d be here right now but I can definitely talk um it’s exactly as you mentioned it’s value systems right it’s what do we find aspirational what do we Aspire towards right and I think that’s actually at the core because if we’re able
To to think of something different and we were just on another panel and I was um referencing a comment made by a colleague of mine at Dr merilan Center who’s working with a um with the cheese makeer in Austria who asked um talking about food system transformation going
Back to sort of local practices on what is enough and the science shows us what is enough right how we allocate that is up to us and that’s where the questions of equity and Justice and the types of value systems really come into play so what is this future planet that we want
To leave what is it going to look like in 2100 right and we have choices to make so we have choices where we decide to continue to emit fossil fuels and we can say all right we will go and plant trees in African savanas right which we
Also know is not necessarily the best the best to go about doing it but where where African nature becomes the solution for consumption elsewhere right um and that that could be but that means that we’re trading off against livelihoods against agricultural production against sort of cultural connections to place to biodiversity
Megap fora right that’s what we’re then willing to sacrifice that’s then what we’re willing to lose in that kind of a scenario or we can think through and try and identify and this is the the hopeful side not the despair side of where are the examples of value systems
Of knowledge systems that actually do know what is enough that are fundamentally connected to the biosphere so this doesn’t become just a question of 1.5 degrees which is critical but it becomes an entire way of being in place and and I think that’s the transformation that we need and if we if
We start to get that right then then the food system will be transformed into something sort of much more sustainable much more Equitable much more just but it’s not just the food system it will be our Transport Systems it’ll be our social systems that’s how we connect to
Each other you don’t see poverty and inequality in that kind of a future world right because we’ve fundamentally reconfigured how we live with the planet and with each other and we’ve got examples we’ve got the concept of BU viid we’ve got the concept of auntu we’ve got this the concept of kaiti
Karanga in um in Mari and and I think that’s what we really need to go and we talk about the need for these radical transformation and we keep on talking about radical Transformations and I think we’re all sick and tired of saying we need transformative change but the
Point is we do need transformative change if we’re going to leave any semblance of a livable planet um for for those of us who might still be here in 2070 but for future Generations after 2100 and I think that’s the value system change that’s linked to the food system
Transformation question that’s linked to the adaptation Justice question that’s linked to the biosphere question and which is connected to all the ini insights around um sort of the other kinds of mechanisms or tools that are available to us um around the climate crisis so we we know that value systems
Have this feature that they sometimes persist through generations we don’t have that much time given that but also given the fact that we are staring into the phase of what you could call Planetary crisis more directly year after year are you optimistic that we will turn the
Curve that’s to Laura yeah to Laura all of you Laura can start I work on preferable Futures desirable Futures sitting on the IIs task force on scenarios of models and various other works we’re like if we close our eyes how does it look if we get things right and it’s been coming increasingly
Hard to do that um but I also know that myself my colleagues my my friends kids who are just being born I mean we’re going to be here given current lifespans in the next 40 50 years like what do I want to see that world look like so I we have to
Have hope because without hope what what what are we and I think that what we have right now is actually a crisis of the imagination and I think if we could if we could reconfigure rewire our imaginations our aspirations our hopes and our dreams that can be a really
Powerful leverage point for Change and it’s that that keeps me going and keeps on working on this and keeps me saying we can still do it we can still actually achieve these goals we can still have a livable thrivable planet so yes maybe I’m an Optimus but I think I have to be
S yeah I want to build on that because we have a very recent crisis of imagination which is we can’t even imagine that we transformed during covid and we did this is what actually Finds Me quite um baffled at how quickly we forget we completely transformed our
Lives for three years not for the right reasons but we did we saw new Innovations we saw governments coming together in solidarity to protect the majority of the people and population within their jurisdictions we actually saw people coming together and making sacrifices which at that time didn’t
Feel like a sacrifice because you knew it was the the only way to survive we need to learn in this and deeply and go into our subconscious and realize that transformation is feasible we did it and not forget that so that we can get back into imagining how do we actually avert
Further crisis because we will have more and more upon us and I think that’s where you need both a reality check which makes you freak out cry anxious but then build from that that sense of hope that actually Humanity can be wise can come together can think through
Crisis and can actually do the right things if governments are willing to stand up to the plate and I think that is key it’s both maybe the crisis of imagination it’s also the crisis of leadership and Co is a great point and I don’t want to deflect too much
But saying I’m not a fatalist myself either but what what really was disappointing to me under covid was we lost 15 million people roughly globally and we normalized death we we were we were willing to accept death uh for some comfort that you know was more
Important to us than what we could have accepted such as vaccine denial Etc so we we have to see how that plays out for us Carlos are you an optimist or how are you looking at well my generation was some Our Generation was the generation
Who decided or F the science we show the risks everything but my generation did not do anything change so but I’m more optimistic because I I can see the younger generation they are more open to radical changes in Behavior you talking about the reforming Food Systems uh 65%
Of all deforestation the tropical forest this is livestock farming yeah uh you know consuming beef is doing a lot of things including very bad for our health excessive beef consumption so but I I’m kind of I’m becoming more Optimist that the new generation they have more power
Perhaps in a few years not 50 years but one decade to start really moving towards r IAL transformations in everything energy consumption Food Systems protecting the biodiversity respecting all the indigenous people local communities all over the planet so I would say I’m more optimistic now yeah I would say I probably um
Surprise you a bit here because I’m a nurses of scientist spending all my time a bit just like Carlos here BR on on the negative news but I I’m also to to be really clear I’m I’m very optimistic and the reason why I’m optimistic is is what creates to be
Honest a sense of anger and frustration because I’m not talking about Hope anymore because it’s not like our scientific diagnostic is coupled to some utopian fantasy we have the solutions we can accelerate not only that we know that sustainability accelerated gives better outcomes for social economic security health peace essentially any parameter
That we value gives better outcome So currently uh it’s it’s a it’s rather frustration than um than being um negative or optimistic and um I think uh you know we have to just as sandre points out just just step back a few steps and I I think we can take many
Many more examples than just what happened during covid uh Chancellor Olaf Schultz uh when um Putin invaded Ukraine stepped up immediately and talked about the Deutsche ziton vendor you know basically since the wall fell down Germany went into one mode of operation and then suddenly they could just turn around
Eight 180 degrees and uh and step up to the challenge of really being a solidarity support for for Ukraine um we have many discussions today with private sector saying that put a global price on carbon somewhere between 100 and $300 US dollar and we turn this
Around in five years you know we we can decarbonize so fast if we just decide to do it the global car industry is on a race to zero actually most of the car Industries today the CEOs they don’t care so much about the planet they care about the survival of
Their companies because they will be outcompeted if they don’t go to Electric Mobility basically over the next decade so we’re we’re talking about so many solutions which are many times outside of the incremental linear pathway but there’s no excuse anymore all the science is there we have a crisis we
Have a win-win story when we come out on the other end and we simply need to bring that upfront in all the discussions not least when we’re here gathered in Dubai so I think it’s a it’s a it’s a really a story of optimism and it’s more that it’s kind of peppered by
Frustration and anger and disappointment and that to me is not the difference between hope or UNH hope it’s really just a question of are we going to take our responsibility thank you Johan before we go to question and answers I would like to ask each of you what’s your view
About this recent state that seems to have opened the debate about science or the role of Science in determining what pathway or which actions we should take do do you think that this was just an anomaly and will go away or was that a trigger that now
Will be with us for a certain period of time and cost additional energy to what we have to do anyway to move towards what our Act goal is and let’s start with srin great I get the Hot Potato first I I don’t think this is just a
Glip I think this is a series of continuous backlash that we have had against science not only climate denialism but for throughout history we have had those who have claimed that whatever science comes out is false not factual or doesn’t reflect their theory of change and their own
Science I do believe however that we are now coming to a point where we can’t allow this to happen anymore there is enough sound science to demonstrate from across a variety of different scientists from a multidisciplinary perspective that actually climate change is upon us that we have to massively reduce and
Move towards net zero emissions that the main emissions that must be reduced are linked to Fossil energy and that therefore it is the responsibility of The Producers both the extraction and the burning that must actually be taken into account so what happened yesterday which interestingly enough blew up just a few hours before
This incredible report was released is a reminder to all of us that we cannot lose sight of the ball this is the greatest existential risk that we have ever faced and therefore we must claim back the rights of science but also our own human rights and I think it’s very important
To remember that so this is not just a glip we will have more there will be a buildup from this I’m going to leave with one very important statistic that you can carry with you as you leave this room the loss and damage fund that was
Set up on the first day of this cop hailed as a success which to some degree is started at 400 million oil and gas profits per day are at 1.2 billion that is the difference so this science issue in particular linked to fossil fuel energy for me is incredibly problematic because
It demonstrates that we are enabling A continuing profiteering with a denialism of the importance of actually stopping that profiteering and those emissions and at the same time we are enhancing energy poverty across the globe and deep suffering thanks sandrin Sandrine actually uh triggered me to add a little
Bit to the question and that is as scientists do we have to change the way we behave the way we project the way we move within Society so Carlos what what what’s your take about that question of what the impact of what we heard yesterday will
Be well I think you know I see more positive uh roles of science because I think all of us are we are becoming responsible Advocates not on political parties but responsible advocates and we are being much more effective now than let’s say 30 years ago to communicate science to
Politicians for instance uh in the Amazon we had for the first time ever in the the Amazon country Summit in August the final declaration they said four times the Amazon is very close to a Tipping Point and they declared they will get to zero deforestation before
2030 so first time ever that happened so I think I’m more optimistic that you know the political world is paying more attention to us thanks Laura I think science already has changed the way it does business if I look at um my generation of scientists who was trained in a very
Interdisciplinary fashion which was not about my role is to give you the figures and then that that’s sort of where it stops right I don’t need to translate it I don’t need to make sure you understand it I don’t need to you know and I think that shifted into also what does the
Science show US in terms of the solution space one was mentioning we have the solutions available and I think the science is also showing that I think the other really important shift that that has happened is is also a recognition of the diverse types of science or research that’s critically important and then
Extending into the diverse types of knowledge systems actually that we need to to take with us and I think the shift of um not just interdisciplinary science but recognizing natural and increasingly social science we’re talking about you know it’s not about understanding I we really critically do need to understand
What what’s happening in the biophysical realm right sort of understanding what the numbers are where these potential tipping points these threats are that’s fun fundamentally important but also understanding how people work how economies thrives where profits are being made who the Wii is that is driving this right unpacking that in a
Critical way it’s it’s not a neutral term um understanding the different knowledge systems different ways of being and seeing and living in the world that we really need to be able to drive on that’s also important information that we need to take and and I think we’re starting to see that in these
Kinds of platforms we’re seeing it recognized and I think our role as researchers as people are able to sit on these panels is to lift that up and to be able to Showcase it for the important role it really has and I want to end with potentially as on the banner of
That next generation of of action which is what we need to do is that I think we’re also seeing that I don’t just need to be a scientist I can also be an activist and that’s controversial in many fields but I think increasingly it is it is a role that we’re seeing
Ourselves plays because it’s an activist for the science it’s embedded in what we know is going to happen and I think if we if we aren’t also taking that mantle on where um yeah we’re not going to be able to to live with ourselves going forward good so our role is changing and
Um Johan do you think that Academia the primary knowledge producer for society is moving fast enough in to that domain where we are not just users of knowledge and wait till it’s being picked up but where we are much more active in not just moving forward training new profiles but also promote
The science yeah know I I tend to be with with with Carlos here I mean we’ we’ve in the scientific Community we’ve become so much better at uh at engaging with uh with stakeholder society and build being offering our services so to say to to policy business
Communities across the world but we can do better for sure I mean uh I I remain continuously self-critical that if I would go out on the street in Berlin or in London or New Delhi and ask about 1.5 degrees C and I would probably be lucky
If I found anyone who know what I was talking about so so of course we we have uh much more to do but just an example I think in in 30 minutes or perhaps within an hour the science statement responding to Sultan Al jaar’s uh mistake yesterday
Is going to hit uh we are aiming for BBC but uh keep an eye on it it will be hopefully right across the entire uh cop 28 here where we’re making absolutely clear that there’s ample scientific evidence that we need to cut emissions by half every decade phase out fossil
Fuels and have a net zero World economy from 2050 onwards that is the charge that’s what science says referring to hpcc and to all the Ia and Central Bank studies of the latest scenario that we’ve run so that is um but but I must admit that for for for many of us in
Academia that is um stepping out of our comfort zone you know we we’re measured by the number up peview Publications that we put out and the education and teaching that we carry out at universities so of course this is an uncomfortable position but I would strongly argue to close this Peter that
Over the last 10 years um the reason why you see scientists uh engaging with for example the whole planetary emergency agenda everything that has to do with the climate crisis uh it’s stepping out of our comfort zone uh way outside of where we feel comfortable and it’s acting on the evidence that we’re
Sitting on it’s it’s really stepping up we’re getting nervous seriously nervous and um and I mean I I interact with with Carlos I have such a privilege of doing that so frequently but even I every time I meet you there’s an update to be given
To each other and and we we sink one step lower in terms of oh my God 202 3 you know you may have seen the uh Bill ripple at Al paper on the state of the climate system 2023 it comes out every year published in bioscience the 2023
Version is shocking because the word shocking is used in the text we’ve never seen um you know the off the charts observations as in 2023 in the ocean in the ice sheets in the ecosystems on air temperature 50° Cel plus did you have 40° the store in
Arizona you don’t need that yeah I don’t need that well this year we actually had 31 consecutive days with temperatures above 110 110 for those who like to think in Celsius is 43.3 Celsius so that actually was not just surpassing the previous record it was obliterating it
Because the previous record was 18 days and this was so hot that some of the Native um you know signature plants like the Saros was just tipped over and that was not the lack of water which it usually is it was just they could not take the
Heat at the same time in Belgium and Northern Europe we had the wetest month and the hottest month so in October we had the hottest month on record across many countries in northern Europe and in November we have now had the most record amount of rain and humidity in
Particular in the northern Europe but in many other countries as well so in a two-month period we had both extremes and that’s the flickering that you get when you have a state change so we we in the middle of that so let’s uh take the last uh period of that of that thing
Five minutes sorry that we got that long um for questions from the audience there there are one two three four uh cleia can you feel them oh there you are yeah uh first of all thank you for your uh Speech it was as a puzzle
For me and I have a holistic more or less holistic Vision what you are told about uh I’m uh Anna kenka from K kgas Republic and I just uh would like to uh talk about point five of agenda I think uh point five of highlights it’s super
Important for us and uh I just uh would like to draw attention uh for the um online round table which was organized by Club of Rome in this year in January this round table uh was focusing on biotic regulation concept uh depend on this concept the just wild nature
Ecosystem can create climate can support climate but nowaday we’re focusing mostly just for one cycle CO2 cycle but depend on plary Boundary uh concept we see several uh several problems with n nitrogen uh cycle with uh phosphorus cycle and so on and if we keep get
Together all this cycle we see the main problems is the nature ecosystem we destroyed the nature ecosystem but this is a huge Factory of life and I just would uh tell thank you for for this point uh from from your side for Club of Rome for Professor no and for you thank
You thank you for that comment there were questions over there actually thank you so much I will be very quickly I’m Alina Masa founder of sustainability media production company D and um I just would like to comment that the crisis of imagination it’s a very big Point really right now and the
Solution could be uh we should focus on human awareness about ourselves as human beings because we know a lot about Technologies but we don’t know maybe so much about ourselves it’s a huge universe so maybe Arts could be here the solution and communication strategy win-win communication strategy we should
Show people how to relate to each other and to the nature thank you uh I think these are these are let’s take a few because they are mainly comments there are not not really questions let’s see where we are getting toia professor of public policy in computer science university of Vermont
And uh director of Institute for environmental diplomacy in security I do work in Impact assessment modeling and as well as couple natural human system space and uh the question that it really bothers me is that the global climate models that ipcc uses does not have human behaviors and policy and
Governance embedded in them we’ve been trying to work on those and I was wondering that these insights that you have generated do they to what extent do they include uh the failers of including social tipping points and policy tipping points into those models uh can we move
Move forward on that for example one of the social tipping points that we’ve been working on for example climate change induced drought in Syria or other in Amazon basin can lead to migration uh which can lead to uh political tipping points in EU for example the rise of populism fake news
Which in turn can lead to changes in the regimes for example the rise of populist leaders sorry for a long question but I just wanted to make sure that you understand the intent of my question uh at in terms of like the the cataclysmic um tipping points that we’re sitting on
The cascading interactions of tipping points what can how can we include those and bring about to the attention of the policy makers thank you you know as you are working in that area I’m I’m sure you are perfectly aware that the social domain is the most complex part of the
Complex system so that’s part of it the other part is that we did simply not pay enough attention to that area but I think the awareness is rising and you will see more uh activi in that in that field there were other questions on the
Left hello U my name is ryad fani I work in carbon capture and renewable energy um I’m looking at the 10 insights and I’m thinking which of these will actually cause the investment Community to transform the way they allocate Capital to actually accelerate a lot of the actions we
Need who wants to take this one Dre so so actually I don’t think the disconnect is between these and whether or not the investment Community will actually transform I think the disconnect is in the signals that we’re actually getting from the market which is saying profit profit profit what
We’ve seen now actually is the investment Community is going back to Big Oil and back to gas we’ve got carbon bombs that are happening right now across most of our major Banks they had declared that they would actually follow the science-based targets some of them are actually pulling out right now now
As we speak so it is it is the system that continues to actually push over financialized economies that enable shareholder value to dictate actually how our markets function that is the problem and unless we change that it’s not these that are going to make a difference it’s the fact that we are
Wired continuously to shift Capital to where the profit is rather than to think about the planetary boundaries which some funds are now starting to integrate actually planetary boundaries thinking as well as obviously ESG and in particular social values as well but but so I’m I’m sorry to be uh a little bit
Blunt on that question maybe I can just quickly make a remark for the other two um the other question which I think is fundamental is around modeling and also how we look at Social tipping points in particular system Dynamic modeling is exactly what got us to understanding
Some of the key social tipping points and it is the feedback loops as well that we need to think about so you’re absolutely right how do we ensure that we continuously have those feedback loops that we bring in both the social shifts and tipping points I mean we
Cannot forget that all of the granularity of the impacts that we see will have those feedback loops at a much broader level continuously the migration element is actually one that we’re feeling right now and we are not even speaking about inner Regional migration from for example southern Spain to Northern Spain
Or to Northern Europe that is not even being talked about so we need to look at all of those different impacts and their inter relationship and the final point on culture you’re absolutely right and culture is also part of the narrative and The Narrative of bringing people on
The journey has to be how we can communicate by using Culture by using mixed media by using the way in which we feel emotion whether it be through Sound and Music whether it be through theater whether it be through dance whether it be through expression in a variety of
Different ways but it also is about how we learn to better communicate and use language to bring people on a journey and that is absolutely fundamental too and that is something that we tried to do through Earth for all we knew that communicating that we needed a giant
Leap and that the too little too L scenario is actually today was going to be tough so we did it through the lives of Four Women we thought about how we used language in order to communicate that better perfect last comment oh no just brief comment about what you’re saying I
Think you know perhaps 2024 I would suggest one of the new uh insights in climate would be the social political Tipping Point particularly because all of us are so concerned when you ask people across the world 75% of the people more in Brazil 90% are very concerned about climate change however
You know we are electing politicians which are deniers so you I think it would be interesting to have one more what would be the risks if we continue electing politicians which are deniers great point and with that we are overtime thank you all for best day thanks to thank