Gold & Market Crash 2024 – Gloomy Forecast by Jim Rogers

Investing legend Jim Rogers joins us to review the year 2023, important financial trends, and of course, provide us with an outlook for 2024. We discuss commodities, including agriculture, silver, and gold!

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Guest: Jim Rogers

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Recording date: December 19th, 2023

#gold #silver #SoarFinancially

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Timestamps
00:00 Teaser & Intro
01:24 Christmas in Singapore
02:14 Key Events 2023
02:49 US Elections?
03:53 China in a Crisis
04:37 FED & US Economy
08:18 Blow Off Rally S&P500
09:47 Commodities
13:03 Gold All-Time High
14:46 Short Opportunities
16:45 Inflation
18:12 Assets to SHORT
19:14 China & Japan … Opportunities
22:13 Chinese Real Estate Bubble
24:08 Ending On A Positive Note

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It’s been the longest period in American history without an economic problem so I maybe we’re never going to have economic problems again the politicians in Washington say they’ve solved all our problems well if you believe them everything is great I haven’t have read a little bit of history and I know

That’s never been the case so I’m worried welcome back to sore financially thank you so much for join joing us here on this channel where we discuss the macro to understand the micro my name is Kai hoffen I’m the CEO of the sore Financial Group and thejr Mining guy on

Twitter and in a few short seconds I’ll be joined by Jim Rogers legendary investor Commodities expert I don’t think he needs any further introduction I’m really excited that he’s coming back on the channel because we’re going to review 2023 a little bit I’m going to ask Jim what what his most important

Events were in 2023 events that shaped the market and of course what is his outlook for 2024 all with the Commodities in mind cuz we’re a commodity focused channel here and we’re trying to understand the macro to understand the Commodities the micro meaning the mining stocks and the mining

Environment a little bit better and I think Jim is the perfect guest for that and before I switch over to my guest hit that subscribe button it really helps us out bringing Jim guests like Jim on the program and now with without much further Ado Jim it’s great to have you

Back on the channel it’s good to see you again I am delighted to be here Kai well done thank you no I appreciate it thanks so much for making the time I’m I’m not sure how busy it is out in Singapore before Christmas but uh I’m running from

Christmas party to Christmas party I have three kids and every everybody’s got something going on so well we do have Christmas in Singapore the lights are up the everything is decorations are everywhere so we have it too yes fantastic yeah I all and know remember lots of humidity

And heat of course in Singapore as well so it’s not sure how easy it is to get into the Christmas spirit well it is on the equator so it’s always hot or hot and raining so and if it’s raining it’s not going to rain long but it’s always

Going to be hot I like single one of my favorite cities in the world have him it’s it’s always exciting to be there um Jim let’s Dive Right In um let’s discuss 2023 and uh let’s start with your main takeaways from the last 12 months here and what was something that really made

You listen up well I’m delighted we all survive 2023 but you know historically the year before an election in the US is usually a good year in the stock market because the everybody all the politicians know the election’s coming they try to get everybody happy for the

Coming election so it happened again we had a good year and now we’re going to have an election I think we’re going to have an election I hope we are you’re the second person within a week that mentions that we might not have an election what what makes you say that

Jim I I don’t say that with any seriousness other than than the fact that human beings do strange things throughout history even American human beings do strange things so no I fully expect to be voting next up November yeah now we had Simon on Simon hunt on

Earlier uh or last week and he was discussing that in a time of War for example that uh elections might be held off uh because of a crisis but I think if we go back and look America’s always had elections even during wartime even during the war between the states so I

Suspect we will have elections again he didn’t say it was a forecast it was a possibility it’s one of many of course looming out there so I was curious I had to follow up since you mentioned that uh as well so but any other events that stood out for you geopolitical wise

Financial from a financial Market perspective for example no I mean the China’s having problems which has will lead to more political situations you know I guess China has been the not a good Market in 2023 because it had the virus and it had various insundry things had the housing

Collapsed I guess the housing collapse in China is certainly a a notable event the Chinese have had a huge bubble property bubble for a long time Beijing tried to stop it before whoever stopped it now it stopped and that’s significant well president she was also elected for

A third time which is unprecedented uh in China as well I think it was in March so that was a big uh event there as well um how how how much are you taking the fed and the FED policies into consideration as well because we we sort

Of peaked at five and a quarter percent and Powell said he was or almost clearly said that they were done raising of course fed speech is never clear but uh it sounded like it well the reason they’re never clear is because they don’t know what they’re doing you know

They don’t they don’t have a clue what’s going on and if they get it right it’s an accident they haven’t been we’ve had a couple of good fed fed chairman in the past 100 years but for the most part you know they’re bureaucrats and academics they don’t know what they’re doing

Absolutely no it’s it’s a lot of guesswork of course as well because they’re relying on data some of that is quite dated or or late it’s not a they’re not leading indicators they’re lagging indicators like the job market in the US uh as as well um GDP growth

Was quite a bit of a surprise in the W 5.2% how resilient is the economy right now ger like when you’re looking at it like do you feel confident in the US economy or the global economy for that matter right the US printed staggering amounts of money the Central Bank in

Washington I don’t think any Central Bank has ever printed as much as they did so of course things feel good right now well the Japanese also have printed staggering amounts of money probably more than they ever have before so so with between Japan and America printing

A lot of money you know those are two gigantic economies with a lot of money being printed lot of people having a good time absolutely lots of cheap money out there although if you look at the the savings accounts it seems like some of that money is being drained out of the

System right now QT is that the buzzword here quantitative tightening uh do you see that uh Phenom phenomenon continue in 2024 are we going back to QE well as I said nearly always the year before an election in the US is a good year in the stock market it was again

This year I would suspect that next year will start to show problems I already see some of the warning signs you know you see some stocks go up every day the the list is getting narrower and narrower you have new people coming into the market who never been in the market

Before they think it’s easy they tell all their friends have discovered this new thing called the stock market and it’s easy to make money you know all we’ve seen this movie before this is not my first rodeo no absolutely not but how how did that movie end last time was there a

Happy end or was there a lot of Tears well I would suspect that next time next year things are not going to look as happy as they look here in December of of 2023 is it to assume Jim you’re in the camp hard Landing then well I just I don’t I don’t know

About a hard Landing or soft Landing we it’s been the longest period in American history without an economic problem so I maybe we’re never going to have economic problems again the politicians in Washington say they’ve solved all our problems well if you believe them everything’s great I happen to have read

A little bit of history and I know that’s never been the case so I’m worried oh absolutely I mean I’m not short I’m not selling short or anything yet I have cut back enormously but I’m not shorting not yet yeah we we’ll we’ll get to that actually because uh shorting

Because there’s always a bull market summer every you want to believe uh you know Market Guru Jim Kramer and uh there’s always money to be made somewhere whether long short or even just long in certain areas right but I’m just looking at the S&P 500 and it looks

Like the market is rallying there there’s a there’s a blowoff rally like it’s absolutely exploding the market how confident are you that that continues or is that the last hurrah before a steeper decline well that’s very good Insight on your part good observation that’s why I’m not shorting yet because often at

The end there’s a blowoff and things really crazy you know in the in 1999 I guess it was the market doubled in six months or something in that blowoff so we’ve had blow-offs before they can be extremely profitable or unprofitable if you’re on the wrong side but no I would

I am waiting in case there is a blowoff and I hope I’m smart enough to short it if it happens when you said you reduced exposure in the market like where did you reduce that exposure Jim just curious everything stocks bonds I mean I wouldn’t own bonds anywhere in

2023 bond market certainly a bubble uh you know I cheapest asset that I can see in 2023 is Commodities you know silver is down 60% from its all-time high Etc but most assets bonds are a bubble property in many countries is a bubble stocks are forming getting ready for a

Bubble no I’m I don’t see any cheap asset classes except Commodities are you are you focusing on anything particular within the commodity space or just uh just broadly just just broadly I’m too simple I’m too simple minded talking about work it’s work otherwise good good point good point when you dive deeper um

Talking about Commodities like we we’re seeing a bit of disruption in the Red Sea right now it’s coming from the geopolitical side just just this morning Reuters put out an article just mentioning all the shipping companies are diverting their cargo vessels being a lot of oil tankers but also just Cargo

In general uh is that something that you have that you’re keeping a close eye on cuz that could be a bit fuel to the commodity price fire well no of course I mean if what you just described could be a gigantic War I hope it’s not uh so of course I’m

Watching it because the Red Sea is a major choke point for the world many many things including oil so no I hope everybody’s watching it including me it seems like it’s getting worse or bad enough because even Germany is thinking about sending a ship out there we are

Actually sending a ship out there so if we get involved in means it’s got to be really bad right um just curious like on the whole geopolitical front there since we since we’re touching that topic right now like how do you see this all playing

Out do you have do you have an opinion on that well of course I have an opinion but the the main worry that I as I look out the window and look at the world I see that more and more people are getting angry with each other and that

Often leads to war trade War if nothing else trade Wars are bad enough nobody wins trade War Wars but they sometimes lead to shooting Wars and certainly nobody wins shooting Wars but they certainly do enormous damage when they occur absolutely and it it seems like it

We’re headed that way again as well like it’s all interl anyway so getting Iran involved now which means China might get involved and Russia from one side so I hope you will watch all of this closely because I see many of the same signs you do and it’s not encouraging no it’s very

Very worrisome like I actually don’t like even talking about it but we have to discuss it because it does affect markets unfortunately what we’re uh you know investing in and it has to do with h it’s cap from a capitalistic point of view we have to take a look at that uh

As well um let’s look at 2024 you you mentioned a few things already some things you’re looking forward to let’s stay on the commodity side for for a minute do you have a favorite commodity for 2024 anything uh you’re putting extra weight on uh in terms of investing well if I

Agriculture is very depressed you know there are many fundamental problems and have been fundamental problems in agriculture which usually leads to a change so if I were looking at any specific area I would get out a list of the Agricultural Commodities and start looking for opportunities that’s where I

See the best opportunity I mean Golds at an all-time high I’m not the only one who knows that oil’s been very strong Etc Etc sugar is not very strong you mentioned gold I was the next item on my list here is to discuss the all-time high because it doesn’t seem

Like it triggered a lot of follow-up buying it’s just lingering around that level we’re about $50 lower uh right now from from that alltime high level uh is is that a reason of concern to you or is it just taking a breather before it takes up the next or before it takes the

Next leg up well I own gold I own silver I own precious medals I have for many years they’re in the closet everybody should have some silver and gold under the bed because if there’s a problem look all of us peasants know when there’s a serious catastrophe you better

Have some gold and silver in the closet so I do but am I running out and buying gold or silver now no I’m mainly watching because I certainly own enough of both of those but everybody should have some gold and silver I say if a crisis comes you you want to have gold

And silver when it comes to the precious metals so you sound it sounds like you’re only investing in the bullion and the physical right now you don’t any you don’t own any paper gold or paper silver for that matter I do not own any shares well I do

Own out one gold share if that’s what you mean no I’m mainly own the real stuff yeah okay so no silver ETFs or exchange traded gold or anything like that so just stay far far away from that I I have owned them in the past but I do not own either at the

Moment we touched on a geopolitical side as well we touched on Commodities here let’s what are some other Trends you’re looking for for next year us elections of course um is is there anything else uh like a key topic uh top of your mind right now jeim well yeah the main thing

Is I’m looking for the blowoff if the blowoff is going to happen historically that’s the way these markets end we have a blowoff at the end and if that happens it’s going to lead to opportunities for short sellers or opportunities for some people so I worry because I as I said

Before it’s the longest period in American history without a serious problem so when the next problem comes it’s got to be very bad remember 2008 was a problem because of too much debt hi look out the window my gosh the debt since 2009 is skyrocketed everywhere

Even China has a lot of debt now China didn’t have any debt 25 years ago and so they could save the world in 2008 but now even China has a lot of debt yeah countries with a debt to GDP ratio over 130% I think historically have always collapsed all right is that something

You foresee as well let’s let’s be a bit Doom and Gloom here Jim let’s let’s take a look at that well you just said it it’s always happened it’s you know when country get deep deep deep in debt they always have problems this is not some kind of prediction this is just simple

History look up some simple facts so we we didn’t invent any new tools in the last 2,000 years that would would sort of prevent that do you think history is seriously repeating itself I’m just to you know following up on that a little bit in Washington Janet Yellen said

Don’t worry we got it under control we know we’re doing we have figured out a way to solve all these problems now Janny Yellen has degrees from two famous ivy leag University so if you believe her wonderful I happen not to believe her I know we’re going to have serious

Problems partly exacerbated by Washington but if you believe her bye bye bye absolutely I’m I’m just looking at some some of the consequences of you know maybe looser monetary policy again next year as well or even with the rate restrictions inflation doesn’t seem to be you know H what do you call it

Restrained like we might be Resurgence of of of inflation uh contrary to what like Noel La at Paul Paul Krugman is saying that we beat inflation um what is your opinion on on on that topic as well like do you see inflation uh you know

Down to 2% again no I know that we the inflation is not finished markets you know go up they correct they go up they correct that’s what’s happened with inflation things feel better right now and they are better right now but no Kai inflation is not finished and we’re

Going to have more of it and it’s going to be serious I hope you’re worried oh definitely AB if you’re not worried you don’t know what’s going on absolutely no that’s what the one of the reasons we’re running this channel here we’re trying to educate a little bit

We’re trying to understand the macro to understand the micro a little better what is influencing price movements not just on the inflation or within your shopping cart but also within your portfolio of course uh as as well money printing is always led many things lead to inflation but especially money

Printing and there’s been staggering amounts of money printing in the last several months years in fact so it’s got to be very bad next time um followup question to what you you mentioned earlier is like shorting the market um what are some areas you would short just

General the S&P 500 is that an area uh or or an asset you would short or is there anything else well normally when you when the market comes to an end the last High Flyers or the best shorts you know the Magnificent Seven whatever they’re called you know the stocks that

Have done extremely well and that are very expensive that I hope is where I’m smart enough to short next time around gotcha fantastic um I I quoted Jim Kramer earlier a bit controversial figure of course in investing Cycles but there’s always a bull market somewhere right even even in a crash scenario

There’s always a market going going up is that just commodities for you next year well who know usbekistan I’m started investing in usbekistan but that’s not a big enough market to save save all of us there are not many markets China’s down China’s probably an opportunity Japan has been going up

Finally Japan will probably make new all-time high soon for the first time in you know decades but other than places like Japan China usbekistan and agriculture I don’t see many things that are great opportunities are very cheap I I need to follow up on that you

Mentioned Japan and Japan has a debt to GDP ratio twice as high as the US for example like what makes you confident about Japan I didn’t say I was confident I said the Market’s going to make new house it’s a different story you know the bank of Japan has been buying shares

Uh they’ve been passing laws to encourage people to invest all of these things have happened before and when they happen especially if you have a depressed Market you know the Japanese Market made its high 35 years ago that’s not a typo 35 years ago and now the ja

Japanese Bank a central bank is buying the new tax laws are good for people who buy shares no there reasons to think that Japan may go up now Japan has horrible problems guys you know Japan’s had a declining population for 15 years now the dead is skyrocketing as you

Point out no Japan unless something happens they not going to be in Japan in 50 years wow yeah no absolutely interest 260% debt to GDP ratio is is staggering the yen is absolutely tumbling against the US dollar as well but uh the Nik is running as you as you said so that uh

There there is the opportunity uh Jim same question actually about China as well what uh let’s scratch confident what makes it an interesting opportunity to invest well China’s had the virus and they had a real estate bubble pop a huge bubble pop so ja China’s had some

Problems uh which is why the markets are down which is why the economy has been slow but most problems come to an end you can I can think I can see the end of the property bubble coming to an end I think I can see some of the problems in

The virus coming to an end and if that’s the case China is not a bad place to invest because it’s a huge economy and lots of people working very hard a guest on the program mentioned IR to take a closer look at iron or prices which have

Rallied 40% since May and that often has to do with China is that an indicator you might consider as well and to look at for for Chinese maybe Resurgence or rebound well of course I mean I’m glad you pointed it out ior has been going through the roof and that’s partly

Because the Chinese economy may have hit bottom and if so I don’t know it’s going to be in demand is in demand sure looks like it um on on the property side like it uh it doesn’t seem like the evergrand bubble and the uh I always want to say

Olive Garden but it’s not Olive gard it’s the other company um the property developer in uh in in China uh has has yet to comp completely sort of uh explode implode uh CU a lot of international lenders uh are involved in those property companies property developers as well do you see

International ramifications coming out of that as well could that be a potential trigger for a global recession or even depression well we usually have something that when we have a big recession or depression something triggers it but it’s usually a lot of nothing there’s no one thing I mean we

The Press talks about one thing but these things accumulate over over time more and more small things turn into big things and the next thing you know it’s on the evening news and everybody says oh my God Leman Brothers is bankrupt you know but things were already going bad

Long before Leman Brothers went bankrupt it’s always the the straw that breaks the camels back it’s like something that people can hang their head on right and there like okay this was it instead and ignoring all the other signs like we’ve seen in March for example all the banks collapsing in the

US for example well you’re exactly right these things build up if you look back at 20072 2008 you know Iceland went bankrupt if anybody knew they didn’t care but it was the first one of the first steps along the way till eventually Leman Brothers went bankrupt

And we all said oh my gosh look what just happened but Bear Sterns had gone bankrupt a few months before Etc these things things don’t happen with one day with one one event absolutely Jim we’re drawing a very gloomy picture here um trying to find a find a way to end the

Conversation bit on a positive note um is is Commodities really or are are Commodities really the only like sort of light at the end of the tunnel here well I mean as I look out the window here I don’t see anything I don’t see stocks anywhere except a couple of

Companies countries I mentioned I don’t see bonds I see bonds I know bonds are above I don’t see property I guess there’s some great property opportunities somewhere but not they’re not wild widespread across the board Kai I wish I could see something I’d like to look out

The window and find something great but unfortunately out my window I don’t see these things right now I’m looking I certainly would like to find but I cannot put all my money in usbekistan or agriculture maybe maybe one last positive note like the blowoff top how

Do you how long do you think it is going to to last do you have do you have an inkling of like sort of a my I I remember 2008 and we had a big problem K since 2008 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed Japan I’m everywhere

Everywhere so the next problem has to be the worst in my lifetime because the debt is just unbelievable but and it’s happening in all over the world and I don’t see how the next problem cannot be the worst in my lifetime I mean I’m not sitting here

Trying to scare you I’m just looking at facts and I see all this debt everywhere it’s got to lead to big problems when when it all comes to an end somebody’s going to suffer I hope I’m not one of them hope you’re not hope your viewers are not that’s that’s why we’re doing

This sort of prepare them and uh to try to understand what is going on in the world but what what is the best inflation Hedge for you right now Jim sort of as a last question well I would suspect agriculture uh I mean I own silver and

Gold and things but I would suspect agriculture I said Silver’s down sugar is down 60% from its alltime high that’s not a bubble you know most agricultural products have been suffering for a long time the average age of farmers in America is 58 the average age of farmers

In Japan is 69 I mean nobody wants to be a farmer uh and that’s one of the reasons that there may be opportunities in agriculture going forward fantastic Jim wonderful conversation like we ran through so many topics uh really really insightful I truly appreciate your time

I know you don’t have a newsletter or anything to sell but where can we find more of you or get more of your information I don’t have anything to sell I’m just a simple person sitting here trying to to survive uh I’m on the um people interview me at times like you

Uh that’s all I know fantastic Jim no truly appreciate your time especially as I said before the Christmas holidays I’m I’m sure uh you know it’s time to wind down a little bit I’m sure looking forward to it as well looking forward to the holiday break here again thank you

So much for your time all the best for 2024 and looking forward to catching up with you again very very soon so thank you Kai let’s hope there is a 2024 fingers crossed we will have it we will have I was G to say we got 12 days so

Don’t worry we’ll have we’ll have a 2024 fantastic the world we’ll keep turning absolutely and everybody everybody else thank you so much for tuning in we truly appreciate your time and really appreciate you logging in if you haven’t done so please subscribe to the channel so we can bring guests like Jim Rogers

Back on the channel more frequently it really helps us out and if you have an opinion what is going to happen we touched on so many topics how do you see things developing do you own physical gold and silver what is your best inflation hedge what do you what do you

See is happening in the Red Sea right now lots and lots to discuss put that in the comments below we read all of them trust me really happy to hear from you and uh we’ll be back with lots lots more thank you so much happy holidays and uh all the best for 2024