Hybrid talk with Washington election experts Steve Israel & Tom Davis. On November 5, Election Day, Americans will head to the polls to cast their vote in the 60th presidential elections. They, above all, will choose the next U.S. President who is set to assume office in January of 2025. More than 160 million Americans are registered to vote in 2024 and will also have a say in Congressional, state, and local elections.
Mission Germany is very honored and pleased to be able to present the bipartisan expert duo of Steve Israel and Tom Davis, experienced former Congressmen and respective Chairmen of the National Republican and Democratic Congressional Committees who possess unique behind-the-scenes expertise on how Congress operates. They will come to Germany for a special U.S. speaker tour on the 2024 U.S. elections offered by U.S. Embassy Berlin in close cooperation with the U.S. Consulates General in Leipzig, Munich, and Frankfurt and several German-American Institutes. From January 22 to 26, Steve Israel and Tom Davis will provide insights and analyses on Democratic and Republican electoral prospects across the country, help explain the electoral process, and discuss key states and issues for the outcome of the 2024 U.S. elections.
Steve Israel, a Democrat, is Professor of Practice and Director of the Institute of Politics and Global Affairs at Cornell University. He also served as a Tisch College Visiting Fellow at Tufts University and is an acclaimed book author of two satires on Washington. He was a Member of Congress for sixteen years representing his home state of New York and left in 2017, having served as the House Democrats chief political strategist and as Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. As an Institute of Politics Pritzker Fellow at the University of Chicago Steve Israel jointly taught a seminar on the U.S. elections with former Republican Congressman Tom Davis, who served on the other side of the aisle as the Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) from 1999 to 2003.
Tom Davis a Republican, is a Washington, D.C., attorney who focuses his practice on handling a variety of congressional and regulatory affairs, including congressional investigations, land use, and legislative strategy. He served 14 years in the U.S. House of Representatives, representing the 11th Congressional District of Virginia. He served as chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform from 2003 to 2007, where he led several high-profile investigations and was also elected chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. He has served as Rector (Chairman of the Board) at George Mason University, where he is also a distinguished professor of Public Policy at the Schar School of Policy and Government and has co-authored a book on partisanship in American politics.
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Um welcome to the German American Institute uh we are glad you all found your way here uh for an amazing program tonight uh a particularly warm welcome to our panelists Steve Israel and Tom Davis uh thank you so much for being here tonight and making this possible um
And also to Thomas Gite uh who’s going to be the moderator of tonight’s debate um thas will introduce the panelists but uh I there’s not a lot of things that I can say about him except for the fact that at the University in tuban he is pretty much the biggest expert on the
Political landscape of the US so he’s the absolute the person to moderate this debate thank you thas um basically tonight’s event is like a political uh Super Bowl uh and with every Super Bowl I think one of the main attractions is also uh the commercial break and this is
What what I’m here for um I’m basically here to tell you about two or three events that we do uh before we start the main event uh the German American Institute uh for those of you who are here for the very first time uh our mission goal is to um Foster German
American relations to increase the German American friendship and wherever possible um yeah make encounters uh possible between Germans and Americans um we do that in many ways we have language courses we have an event program we have a library um let me point out one or two um tomorrow night there’s actually going
To be a quiz night here at the diie uh where you can show off your trivia knowledge um on February 6th uh there’s going to be a concert with NOA gri who many of you might know from the TV show Glee but we’re be told he’s actually even better life uh and
For those of you who during tonight’s debate think wow this is really fascinating I want to learn more about American politics uh the best way to do that is of course to travel with us to Washington DC um we’re offering a trip starting September 28th um and we’ll spend one week in
Washington DC right before the elections uh and we’re going to talk to political experts journalists um and yeah just figure out uh how people feel about the upcoming elections and if you don’t want to wait so long um and your focus is not necessarily so much on politics but also
On the many cultures in the US we’re also offering a trip to New York uh in may already you’ll find the Flyers back there um and I mentioned the Super Bowl we’re actually going to do a live screening of the Super Bowl if you’re up
At 12:00 p.m. uh two weeks uh from today on on Sunday um that’s always a lot of fun because a lot of Americans attend uh and we’re doing that in cooperation with the local football team the Red Knights um that was the commercial break and now to the main event
Thomas thank you very [Applause] much I was expecting uh Taylor Swift or someone for the commercial break but thank you U Felix um it’s good to see so many of you here and many more uh also live on YouTube this is a hybrid event um it’s um such a pleasure because much
Of what we hear uh in Europe about the state of politics in the United States is about polarization about gridlock about hyperargininemia a Democrat um join us here together to show us another side of the United States at least I’m hoping and assuming that we will have a civilized discussion
Here tonight um since they’ve managed to survive teaching a course at a university together on us politics I’m um yeah I think it’s the safe assumption to make in the uh in the spirit of bipartisanship um I’ll introduce uh both distinguished guests here tonight together um Tom Davis uh Republican
Steve itel Democrat have served multiple terms in the House of Representatives in Washington DC representing the great States of Virginia and New York uh both have reached a host of different leadership positions within their parties and in different congressional committees including chairman of the national republ Republican Congressional
Committee and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee after retiring from Congress Tom Davis in 2008 and Steve Israel in 2017 they’ve continued to follow us politics closely um Tom Davis as a lawyer in Washington DC and as a distinguished professor at uh George Mason University professor of public
Policy at the scar School of policy and government to be precise um and Steve Israel both as a writer of political novels too until now um and as director of The Institute um for politics and Global Affairs at Corell University now we’re in book loving tubing in here tonight so I should also
Mention that he opened a bookstore in on Long Island Oyster Bay not long ago called theodors named after president former president Teddy Roosevelt and maybe we’ll find out tonight whether this is part of his recovery strategy after serving in Washington for so long so please join me in welcoming Tom Davis
And Steve Isel here tonight warm Round of Applause I’d also like to um say a warm thank you to the state department and um the good people of of the American Consulate in Frankfurt the embassy in Berlin the other consulates that have been involved they are really doing a
Very intensive tour of of Germany with stops already in Berlin leig Munich um stutgart I think Frankfurt uh will be next and um so it’s the real deal here um for these two gentlemen the plan for tonight is um to start with the three years three of us having uh a
Conversation for about 30 minutes or so to get us going then we’ll open up for questions um to you guys in the public uh questions on uh the Youtube um channel are also possible please post them in the comment section and um Sofia Kumer here who’s looking very professional there behind all those
Screens uh will uh bring those questions to us um as well so that’s plan for tonight I look uh forward to it maybe let’s just start with the latest news from the Republican primaries uh we’ve had Iowa we’ve had New Hampshire now and it seems to be over uh Donald
Trump is going to be the candidate to run for the presidency for the Republican Party am I right any scenario in which he is not I can give you a scenario where it doesn’t work but it’s unlikely I mean at this point the next uh primary is is going to be in South
Carolina Nikki Haley’s home state where Trump is heavily favored and then the next week after that you have half the delegates being picked so something in that intervening period would have to occur that would disrupt Donald Trump’s momentum and as we’ve seen in the past nothing seems to disrupt his
Momentum when he gets going he went through the inside Hollywood episode in his first campaign he’s been through uh numerous indictments and nothing seems to have slowed his momentum this is about basically the direction of the country country is very closely divided um and at this point it looks like he’s
The leader of a movement and nothing’s going to stop him from doing that um let me add one other thing yes Steve and I Steve was chairman of the democratic Campaign Committee I was chairman of the Republican Campaign Committee but we both left Congress undefeated and unindicted something that
We were very very proud of it’s a Triumph it’s a Triumph well I maybe can add then that I’ve also um Googled and learned that Bill Clinton called Steve Israel one of the most thoughtful people in Congress um and I’m wondering what what’s that meant as the bar is very
Low I asked him have you been watching C-SPAN at all do you know what’s happening in Congress all right um from the the Democratic perspective the the Biden team is of course looking closely at what is happening in Iowa in in New Hampshire any any information that might
Stem the a little bit hopeful despite the fact that Trump seems to be winning everything pretty easily well Tomas first thank you for moderating and thank you to the German American Institute for the incredible work you did you do I know I listen very carefully about plans
Uh to bring you to New York uh and Washington I urge you to participate in that you know politics is all about wheeling and dealing so I I’m I’m going to make a deal with my friend Tom Davis right now if you go to Washington he will treat you to a lavish dinner
Because he lives and if you go to New York he will treat you to a lavish dinner he will fly up no I do hope you you you uh you can make it and we would love to to host you at some events both in in New York and Washington look I
Think um as polarized as we are and as difficult as it seems to to to be in reaching any kind of consensus on basic facts there is one fact that at least one fact that Tom and I agree on that Joe Biden and Donald Trump agree on and that is that the electorate
In the United States is polarized about 40% of the electorate uh is planning to vote for Joe Biden about 40% of the electorate is planning to vote for Donald Trump they’re kind of they’re locked in despite the fact that two-thirds of the electorate would like different choices 80% of the electorate
No knows where who it’s going to vote for what is really important to both campaigns the Biden campaign and the Trump campaign is the 20% who are left who have not yet made up their minds these are called swing voters these are people many of whom voted for Obama and
Then Trump and then Biden who could either vote for Trump again or Biden uh and they live in the seven Battleground States you all know we have an electoral college that New York is going to vote for Joe Biden no matter what and uh Alabama is going to vote for Donald
Trump no matter what it’s those seven Battleground states that count and so what Biden is looking at and what Trump is looking at are the same subset of Voters that 20% in those States and whatever you may hear now about polling and about the economy and about crime and about democracy doesn’t matter
What matters is what those 20% of Voters in those seven states are thinking about in 10 months from now when they begin to make judgments on who they’re going to vote for all right well here New Hamshire may have given some helpful um information to the Biden campaign in
That quite a few Independents didn’t seem to lean towards uh voting for Trump and Nikki Haley uh did quite well amongst those voters um trouble for Haley is that she’s not doing very well amongst Republican voters and it seems to be a Republican primary that she needs win all right let’s let’s maybe
Take a a brief step back you’ve both uh served uh long and distinguished careers in um in Congress um sort of thinking back to your sort of early experiences um all the way up to the Congress of of today um what are sort of one or two of
The key changes in how um Capital Hill is functioning or not functioning that you would identify based on your own experiences but perhaps also in the in the period since then um well I mean Washington today it starts with the voters Steve represented a district that leaned Republican and he was a Democrat
I represented a district that leaned Democrat and I was a Republican voters used to vote for the person we used to say they voted for the number on the Jersey now they’re voting for the color of the Jersey voting people are voting party not person and that’s having effect on the whole
Political process so when members come to Washington at this point voters act like this is a parliamentary system in terms of how they’re voting congressmen are behaving that way today what do I mean I mean we’re a balance of power structure we are not a parliamentary
Suit we have an in supposed to have an independent Congress independent Judiciary and an executive branch with checks and balances but today the president’s party in Congress doesn’t act independently they’re in advantage of the executive branch they’re going to protect their president they’re going to underinvestigated any misdeeds that go
On there and the minor minority party uh is no longer a minority shareholder in government they act like the opposition party like you would impeachments used to be rare now they’re becoming more like no confidence votes uh is it’s just gotten more polarized 80 to 85% of the members the
Only race that matters is their race for the nomination the primary election of which only their party generally participates that means they Hue their time their attention and their voting records toward their base voters their base V voters are true believers they don’t reward compromise they punish
Compromise and so you you end up in this situation with these one party um uh constituencies where it’s very difficult to work across party lines without being punished in the nomination process for your parties Steve and I represented uh districts where they were very swing districts that lean kind of the other
Way when we work to compromise there’d be some reward for us you don’t see that anymore secondly the way people receive their news today everybody’s in their own set of facts we we like to say people do not tune in for information they tune in for affirmation they they
Get the news that affirms their worldviews it validates their worldviews and so you’ve got constituencies over here with one worldview that are getting one set of facts and news uh that are vote dominating primaries and another group over here just makes compromise very very difficult I think that’s a
Major change that we’ve seen just fairly recently see I I completely agree and and uh perhaps I can help make the point with a story that happen to be true about Tom Davis um when I I was elected as Tom said from a republican District that no
Democrat was ever believed to to be able to win and when I got to Congress I feared him I didn’t want to make eye contact with him didn’t want to know who I was and that was because he was the chairman of the house Republican Campaign
Committee and it was his job to kill me politically that was his job this is the guy who had the money the will and the wherewithal to defeat me in a republican district and I became the chairman of the democratic Campaign Committee my job was to make him
Miserable my job was to defeat Republicans and elect Democrats and hope that he was so miserable that he would leave Congress but the day after every election we would find ways of working together because there comes a time when you have to govern there comes a time
When you have to put the politics and take take off the the jerseys and get back to red white and blue in the United States and find ways to govern we were able to do that we were able to legislate back then but by the time we left Congress unindicted and undefeated
It was harder than ever fewer and fewer members of Congress were willing to compromise willing to govern and it’s for the reasons that Tom mentioned number one there were fewer moderate districts you got punished at back home if you compromised if you had a very Republican district and you compromised
With Steve Israel the voters would take it out on you how dare you work with a Democrat and if you had a very Democratic district and you compromis with Tom Davis the voters would take that out on you how dare you work with a republican final point on this when I
Went to Congress in 200000 there were about 125 congressional districts out of 435 where members of Congress needed to compromise because their constituents wanted it today today on this very day there were between 25 30 if you want to be really uh you want to give it to the
Benefit of the doubt 40 but no more than that all of the other districts punish people who want to govern they don’t want government in those districts they want ideology they don’t want to move forward they want to move the country further left or further
Right and that is a fairly that is a phenomenon that began in 2008 and and has continued Amplified accelerated until now all right we have a a new Republican speaker in the House of Representatives um someone we weren’t fully aware of here you say new do you mean in the last
Hour good good good question uh because uh of course his predecessor Kevin McCarthy made a um somewhat fateful deal with uh a group of difficult um Republican members of of the house that they any of them could basically kick him out or have a vote to kick him out
Um and soon after that deal was made this happened um Tom um the new speaker Mike Johnson what do we need to know about him will he have any of an easier job than his uh most recent predecessors uh what is your take on the the Republican speaker of the well it’s
Not an easy job you have a very small margin to three seat margin at this point there is a special election in in New York right in in your old District district uh that will be uh coming up in early March but both parties will spend $10 million on trying to win it
Democrats win it they don’t capture the house but it gets them a vote closer and it’s kind of a signal to the rest of the country in terms of where things are going I know Mike Johnson he is from shreport Louisiana he’s an intelligent person people say well he’s very
Conservative he’s from shreport Louisiana what do you expect uh that doesn’t necessarily mean that’s the kind of speaker he’s going to be because the speaker has to preside over the Republican conference and over over the whole house Mike Johnson is a very able person considers himself a constitution
Lawyer he is a Christian and he wears it he’s very open about that um Kevin McCarthy was thrown out because he wanted to keep the government open and he put forward a bill on the house FL that had a majority of the house but didn’t have a majority of his caucus
Because the government hadn’t funded the government for the year so they passed what’s called A continuing resolution and he put that on to keep the government open and some of the Republicans were offended uh they filed a motion to take him out and that carried with a handful of eight
Republicans and all the Democrats Democrats were complicit in this too why not McCarthy was the biggest uh fundraiser for the Republicans uh and it caused Mischief within the Republican conference and it basically shut down the house for three weeks I knew Kevin McCarthy I knew him when he was in the
State house in in California uh and his number his just his number was up we just had some rabid people that get on cable TV and uh represent a constituencies that’ll never be happy and they’re just anti-establishment Johnson’s going to come up to the same decisions he really doesn’t
Have he he he doesn’t have many options in the scheme of things uh but to make some compromises along the way without looking completely ridiculous uh he’s got a little more cache with conservatives because he comes out of that conservative uh wing of the party um my suspicion in talking Steve to some
Of your members is that they may not vote in Mass to take him out if there’s a motion to uh vacate the chair that members won’t vote for him but they can abstain which raises a high it makes it harder to to take him out um he just
Doesn’t have the baggage on him that McCarthy did and he’s not the prodigious fundraiser McCarthy is so uh and he’s also a caricature that they can run against so so why not um but it’s still very tough we still uh our uh federal budget year began October 1st and
Congress hasn’t passed a budget and they won’t have to the next date is March 1st and March 7th to fund the government through the 12 appropriation bills they may not even reach that uh for those of us that are around the government we never funded on time the last time we
Funded the government on time and all the agencies was 1996 and we only did it that year because we’d shut the government down twice the year before you’re going into an election cycle so Congress isn’t very efficient even on its best days but this has been total dysfunction I think
Republicans pay a price for this uh next November in those hand potentially he handful of but Johnson’s got his hands full but I think the die is cast you got a president and a senate uh on the the only other thing I’d add and this will get to the question of funding for
Ukraine and the like is I do think the Senate is not going to try to jam him on some of this stuff they want to give him some room to maneuver um but it’s a it’s a very very difficult job no matter who who a speaker and I think Johnson had
You know he had fewer enemies in the caucus and that’s why he got elected all right let’s talk a little bit about the the Biden Administration um his approval rating hovers around 40% which isn’t great if you’re um Coming uh into an election year and are running for
Reelection um Steve if you’d have to sort of grade him on his on his first term um what are maybe some of the major accomplishments weaknesses overall um what grade would you would you give President Biden and his team well shock of all shocks uh I’m a Democrat Who was appointed by the
President to a presidential commission I uh was active in his first campaign will be active in his next campaign um so uh brace yourselves now I I give him an A+ and I know that I know that may asound you um ask Tom the same question goad
Tom we may have a gentle disagreement on that um look I um when you go back to where the country was when he was elected the pandemic the shutdowns uh people without jobs hotels that weren’t open restaurants that couldn’t open an economy that was on the verge of collapse industries that were
Spiraling because of the pandemic um foreign policy a NATO that was fragmented uh questions about America’s commitments to its allies including Germany uh instability and chaos and contrasted to where we are now uh I I think he deserves uh very good grades uh do we all have disappointments uh in
Various aspects of his policy my wife is here she has disappointments in various aspects of my policies that’s just human nature but I believe that um he deserves good Mark now here’s the problem the question is well then why is he at 40% if he did such a good job Steve and
The problem is this first of all the electorate is polarized there are now studies that uh if you are a Democrat you believe that the economy is booming and if you are a republican you believe that the economy is in a recession in the same household the same family see things
Differently uh and the second issue is this my party God bless the Democrats you know we love data we love statistics we love to look at today’s New York Times story giving all of the statistical reasons why the economy did better there was a jobs report that or
Economic report that came out this morning that proved that the economy is doing better you cannot feel data you cannot feel statistics and most most voters still feel that they’re having a hard time paying the bills that prices are too high even though the economists will say inflation is going down that there’s
Still too much unemployment you ask the average American with the unemployment rate is and they they’ll tell you it’s in double digits it’s actually historically low three and a half% three and a half per. but they’ll tell you it’s in double digits until those voters feel the econom is getting better you’re
Not going to see much of an increase in Joe Biden’s uh favorability and not only that but it it it’s doesn’t matter how they feel about it today it goes back to what I said earlier how do they feel next October about the economy and if they
Feel that the economy is better then I think Joe Biden has a has a real path despite the fact that he’s low on the polls one other thought on this Tom and I love political itical history we love boring people to death uh with political history um but Joe Biden is not the
First incumbent president to be polling miserably in the January before the election and then winning uh you know this there there’s time to improve um it is all going to be a function of what is happening to that 20% in those seven Battleground States in 10 months from
Now all right we’ll get back to that I think Obama was polling it at the low 40s around this time little higher little higher than Biden is and for the record I I don’t give him I don’t give Biden an A plus just want to put that on
All right well why not well any number of reasons first of all um for every tax dollar they collect 40 cents of that’s going to pay interest on the national debt national debt has skyrocketed we’re running $2 trillion dollar in debt a year the economy is doing at a macro
Level very well because it’s basically tiited checks where basically the government is is funneling money into the economy secondly the border is a mess we’ve had literally millions of people stream across across the border uh and are have disappeared in the United States we have no idea where they
Are in American cities uh they are shutting down hotels they are taking budgets that were going to be used for police and and schooling they have to use it now to pay for these migrants because he abandoned some of Trump’s policies of trying to hold people at the
Border uh so they could make their Asylum claims it was called the stay in Mexico policy they quit building the wall and in fact tore down part of the wall that he had built uh yesterday with the help of the US Supreme Court uh Texas had put some barb wire across an
Area that migrants were going through illegally uh and they took that down to allow them to come it’s almost been a welcome in I believe in in Immigration America is a country of immigrants it’s what’s made us very different from any other country on Earth and immigrants
Have risen and made some of most important contributions but people need to go they need to go through the gate not over the wall you need a high wall but a wide gate we’re a welcoming country but it’s not fair to people who have waited in line forever to get in
Line have played by the rules for another group to come crashing across the border when we don’t know who they are uh we don’t have any background checks we know a number of them we found have come off the terrorist watch list and the Administration has done in my
Opinion very little about that and of course we’ve had inflation inflation has now leveled off a bit but people don’t forget that last year it was a 10% and that 10% stays in terms of the prices they’re paying at the grocery store and they did this despite the fact that I
Think even Larry Summers the former Democratic secretary treas he said you do these kind of things you overspend like this you’re going to get inflation so so that’s that’s that’s why I don’t give him an A+ I I look I it’s a it’s it’s a tough job I think he has done
Some things very well it’s not it’s not all bad I think his biggest political problem though is not that it’s just the fact that he’s an older guy and there have been a number of flubs and stuff on TV that kind of accentuate his age and
His ability and in his ability and I think to a lot of Americans uh that is a concern Donald Trump’s almost as old but he Donald Trump doesn’t quite have the same uh uh uh he he appears to be a little more fluent uh when he’s on they
Both have issues that Donald Trump doesn’t always State at the script as you know and tends to go off to the side and both of them do but I think for those reasons I don’t give him an A+ of course I don’t have an appointment from
Him either and um they and and I don’t have an appointment from Trump so the worst he could do is to bust me to Precinct Captain so I’m not worried about telling you what I think about it but I don’t think Biden deserves na just just one one one one uh respectful
Difference with with Tom not on his grade I wouldn’t expect him to to say anything differently but um I think he and I would both agree that In fairness one of the reasons that our debt is so high uh and our deficits are so large is Donald Trump that you know deficits are
Aggregate they’re cumulative uh and no one can look at the Trump Administration and say he brought down deficits you know that he reduced spending and and brought in revenues um so deficits are Tom’s favorite line that I love to steal from him because that’s what politicians
Do is um if you have a low tolerance for hypocrisy you should get out of politics um both parties spend uh both parties have been in capable of dealing with deficit and debt and both parties enjoy blaming the other party for that problem deficits only matter when the other parties in
Congress we like to say right maybe jumping on the the age issue because I saw a lot of you here in the audience sort of nodding along to yeah he has a problem because he is a little old um he’s 81 we did have a Chancellor
Here in Germany by the way if you’re in contact with the Biden team ad one re elction with 81 his campaign slogan kind of experiment no experiments maybe something Biden could try who knows um but anyway um how can he overcome this what can he do uh in
The upcoming campaign apart from jogging onto the stage as he is warned to do how can Biden deal with this sort of combined also with why did he decide to to to run again well I’ll make two points one is uh I I used to believe
That uh age uh was a very serious issue and a a major factor uh in determining my vote uh in uh in campaigns and now that I’m old I I think that U age doesn’t really matter I think it’s you know just people should be judged based
On merits not chronology I look they’ll a campaign’s imperative is to find the right message that addresses its vulnerabilities and so if the Biden campaign assesses that those 20% in those seven states are shifting away from Joe Biden because they think he’s too old I can guarantee you that the campaign will
Find ways on television on radio on social media streaming knocking on doors to correct that perception campaigns are about perception correction the more important thing I would say is that for those and by the way the nodding of heads is not unique to the German American Institute it happens
Frequently in the United States when people think about Biden’s age more important question is what would happen if Joe Biden himself decided I’m too old and I’m going to step aside this is very important Tom and I have talked about this I think the most one of the most
Important questions in politics is then what it’s vital in any political calculation to think a few steps ahead then what so give me one minute and let’s take let’s go through the scenario and why it would be a horrific idea for Joe Biden to step aside let’s say he decides I’m
Out then who runs for president then what Camala Harris the vice president and I’m looking at some right here in this room and I see it in America people say well then she needs to step aside really you’re going to tell the first African-American woman in
The history of the United States to be vice president that she needs to step out step aside move over then what well the African-American vote that is indispensable to Democrats just implodes we cut off a path for victory let’s say that Camala Harris decides that she would love to be the US
Ambassador to Germany and doesn’t want to be vice president anymore because as one Tom political trivia Tom’s the expert of political trivia who said the vice presidency wasn’t worth a a warm picture vice president Marshall vice president Marshall let’s say like Kamala Harris says you know what this job John Nance
Garner excuse me Garner this job isn’t worth a warm picture of spit so I’m leaving then what well do you know what happens then then the Democratic Convention in August has to decide who’s going to run for president and vice president now the last time this act
Happened in American history was in 1968 when President Lyndon Baines Johnson went on television and said I’m stepping aside I don’t want to run for re-election and then what it went to an open convention that exploded and I mean violently exploded if you Google this or some of you may
Remember this uh there were riots in the streets police were beating young people young people were beating police and a convention is about establishing the narrative The Narrative coming out of the Chicago convention was the Democrats are Lawless and disorderly and Richard Nixon who arguably was in a very weak
Position at that point what did he run on Law and Order and then what he won the Democrats lost we’re not interested in repeating that experiment so as perhaps um difficult as the age May issue may be for Joe Biden it’s much better than the then what
Alternatives and let me add the election ultimately is about the direction of the country uh both both candidates Trump and Biden have their personal foibles I think everybody recognizes it we can get into it in the question and answer they it’s not just an age issue with Trump
It’s the fact that he tends to pop off sometimes and offend different different groups But ultimately to the American public this is a race about we which direction do we want the country to go and America is undergoing some of the same challenges that Germany and the
Rest of the world is with that what are the challenges of globalization what are the chance of migration wealth disparity what what what are these and in the United States what’s happened is as the United States has moved and progressed forward in some areas there is an
Element in the population I call them the progressives who say you’re not going fast enough we need to make these changes now but there’s an element at the other end that their status is completely threatened they’re not sure where they’re staying they’re saying wait a minute well we’re we’re not going
We’re not moving and it’s not just economic it’s social the economic news on a macro level was good today at a 3% growth but in some parts of the country there’s still no no opportunity and that’s really a base vote for Donald Trump in in in in many areas so
Ultimately this issue is going to be about the direction of the country and we are very very uh bitterly divided on that point these other issues will play in the middle they affect that 20% of the electorate that he talked about but despite the fact that both of these guys
Have glaring weaknesses it’s which direction do you want the country to go and you know that’s where the disagreement comes and that’s where the race will ultimately be decided all right before we uh open up for for questions from the the audience maybe one final question that I’m really
Curious about whether you have any inside information on on this for us to share either of you I keep wondering why there weren’t more Republicans in the aftermath of Trump’s big election lie and the storming off the capital who used the opportunity to get rid of him either through the impeachment or
Through making him uh unqualified to to run for public office ever again it seemed such a great opportunity why didn’t they more of them do this do any of you have a good answer to that well let me give you two two two two stories one is I called a
Number of members before January 6th to counsel them saying this is a career vote if you vote to certify or not to certify I’ll just give you two instances one was a very able member from a republican District he’s PhD knowledgeable more moderate and he said
Tom if if if I vote to certifi if I don’t vote not to certify in at least one state I’m going to have a primary and I’m not sure I can handle it and I may be through I said I got it understand I called to another member
Who is now the chairman of a major committee um and and he was on the floor uh on January 6th by the way was afraid for his life uh he voted to certify but he’s afraid for his life there on January 6th two days later back in his
Hometown he’s in the Walmart and this woman walks up to him he thinks she’s going to say Congressman are you okay you know what she says do you think they learned their lesson the fact of the matter is these members go home they’re worried about their their primary voters
Right now have a strong loyalty to the movement Donald Trump started to the leader of that movement and standing up to Donald to to Donald Trump in an open way has been a way of political suicide for many of these members ask Liz Cheney went from the most popular politicians
Uh in Wyoming to maybe getting 30% in her primary race after she spent millions of dollars and came from a great Republican brand name it is pure survival at this point uh that’s why if you go in the cloak room I think all of us were astounded at the way he handled
The election I I just call him a sore loser um Al Gore lost a five to four Supreme Court decision had every right to complain and take it to the streets and he walked away for the good of the country Richard nickon did the same thing in
1960 um Donald Trump didn’t that’s not who he is he’s this is a brawler of from the Queens in New York and he brought that style the White House it’s not anything Washington is used to but for the people who see him leaving a movement of people who have felt
Neglected for a long time it becomes insurmountable and he brought a lot of new people into the Republic party chased some out but he brought a lot of new people in who said we have a champion in Donald Trump and I think a lot of members who come from I I
Represented the wealthiest District in the country uh it’s certainly not a trump District uh but in just in terms of survival you either get on the uh Steamroller or you become part of the pavement and I think that’s what happened all right um I think it’s time
For questions from the the audience now Felix Von here has a microphone that we need to use because otherwise the good people on YouTube will not hear your question um so who would like to go first we have two in the back uh on German radio we got to know
That there’s another candidate running his last name is Kennedy uh what about him well I think because you have Trump and Biden are so unpopular you will have a pro proliferation of thirdparty candidates Jill Stein was a green Party candidate last time she got like 1% she’ll she’ll
Run again we have Cornell West and African American Professor from Princeton and Harvard uh is running is to the left of of Biden you have Robert Kennedy Junior who’s garnered some some support and interest and you have another group called No Labels who wants to run a centr ticket with a republican
Uh and a Democrat one for president one for vice president uh so that voters who are dissatisfied with this Choice uh will will have other choices so so you don’t have to get to 50% this time that 40% it’s where do these Independents and occasional voters go do they go to a
Third party um you know you know what happens so yeah Kennedy will take some votes but there will be other people going after that dissatisfied vote uh than Robert Kennedy Jr in my opinion Kennedy Jr’s biggest problem is is of course he’s got a great Democratic brand
Name being part of the Kennedy family but because of some of the public statements he’s made on vaccinations and stuff it’s been a non-starter with a big part of the American left and I think that has limited his upward Mobility to tap into that that’s my own opinion I
See be interest in what you have to say on that my wife and I know uh Bobby Kennedy and uh it’s it’s sad to see uh what What’s happened with him on on the broader issue of an alternative third party the the the beautiful thing about the American
People is that they all love an alternative until they have an alternative until they actually see the alternative so right now Biden and Trump are running against a third party we don’t know what that party stands for what it stands against we don’t know who’s running for president or vice
President they are running against a phantom but Phantoms we uh will always be filled in during the course of a campaign and I can assure you that if the Trump campaign once there once these third party candidates are on the ballot and running if the Trump campaign
Assesses that they are taking votes away from the Trump campaign they will Define that third party they will take them down and if the Biden campaign assesses that that those third party candidates are cutting into its margin then the Biden Campaign Will Define the third party and take them down and so it’s
Just too early to make any kind of judgments as to whether a third party is going to be viable however I think Tom is right that if ever there were was was kind of the environment and the atmosphere for a a willingness to consider a third party in
The American electorate it is now until that third party is defined I I remind of a poll at one point Powell was one of the one of the most exalted people in American politics uh but as soon as you tell people his stand on abortion and guns those numbers disappear very
Quickly so it’s that’s the way it is in in politics is that becomes very polarized very quickly Independents have never gone anywhere in American politic they’ve gone somewhere but they’ve never been able to win Ross perau got 19% uh in 1992 and and and he was pulling in the
High 30s at one point and then he dropped out of the race got back in claimed his toaster was bugged it got really Go Goofy but you had uh at that point Bush and Clinton and the public wasn’t sure about them for for different reasons but catching lightning in a
Bottle which is really what the independent and independent candid would have to hard to do not impossible to do but I think Steve is Right historically it’s difficult and we have an electoral vote system so winning nationally doesn’t help if you don’t carry specific States and the way this works and the
Way you target States and the like just just make it very very difficult on the other hand in an election where a couple of thousand votes in three or four states might make the difference in the Electoral College someone like Robert Kennedy could be a threat to Biden I I
Suppose and I guess a lot of his funding is coming from from Trump supporters and and and Republicans well it from an alienated class because Robert Kennedy talks to them and you again you have a class of people in America they’re not liberals they’re not they just feel alienated from government and neglected
And I think Robert Kennedy is is is a vessel for some of these people to show their disapproval Trump’s vote in 2016 was a big middle finger to the American establishment I mean that was a lot of his vote uh he overcame if you will if
If you go back to some of the issues he had during the campaign well how could this guy stand up to this a conventional candidate could not a movement is hard to stop and the the as I said before the effects of of globalization of this immigration which has been huge and has
Played havoc in many uh parts of America wealth disparity if the political classes aren’t addressing that appropriately you’re going to find people that feel there their status threatened and are hurt by this they’ll go to uh they they’ll go in strange ways and Trump was able to tap into
That yes thank you so my name is Lucas um Master student here in Tuan master of education political science and German Linguistics I’m also Reserve officer in the German artillery I have a little sister she’s a specialist in the tank troops has an 8-year contract I have a brother-in-law also specialist also in
The tank troops has a 12-year contract and we’re talking a lot about the elections and a lot about NATO because when Donald Trump was President he said um NATO is obsolete he’s he said we should leave NATO he said we should bring our troops back from Germany to
The US and um it is a fact that Germany has a great great great dependency on the American Military so as our German Lieutenant General mice the head of German Army said V and Blanc it’s like we are basically naked yeah and it is a fact that at the end of the
Decade Russia will Tech NATO States everybody says that every think F our German Ministry of Defense Minister just stated the the Polish also say also says this so so Trump um is a big thre to us so because um what President Putin does he’s he’s gambling he’s waiting for president
Trump to invade the Baltic states and then we are in big trouble so my question is what is Donald Trump’s plan for NATO will he leave NATO will he defend Europe or will he not and what is Joe Biden’s plan for NATO especially for nato in Europe can I can I go first
Because m is easy yeah please go ahead yeah you got the easy one I got the easy one um what is Joe Biden’s plan uh if Joe Biden is reelected uh he will see that result as a validation and endorsement of his foreign policies his approach to Nato his appro to his
Support for multilateral alliances his support for collective security uh agreements uh and he and so you will see consistency and constancy in US foreign policy he will continue to work to revitalize rebuild enhance NATO uh he will continue to support maximum funding for Ukraine he will not allow Ukraine to be threatened
Under his watch um he will continue to support the special and indispensable relationship between the United States and Germany and other allies so you won’t see much of a difference in fact you may see uh a uh an enhancement of the current uh portfolio on foreign policy and National Security issues in a
Biden Administration now I’m going to sit back and listen to Tom tell us what’s going to happen when if Donald Trump is reelected well let me start by saying when you had the Obama by Administration and Putin went into cria what did America do nothing that should have been a
Symbol that okay we can take advantage of these guys he didn’t come back into Ukraine under Trump did he he waited till Trump was out Biden is back in and came back in America was late to the table at that point in giving Ukraine what they needed if anything we owe the
Ukrainians a a great dead gratitude for the Brave the suffering they’ve undergone with how they stood up to Soviet Soviet troops and I will tell you this the vast majority of Republicans and Democrats in Congress want to fund Ukraine and that money will come it’s been held up over a dispute with the
Border and we think it’ll get worked out in the in the next in the next uh few weeks but I don’t know that if Trump were still in the White House Putin would have felt whatever threat or would have gone in because Trump is you don’t
Know what he’ll do from day to day and I think the calculation on that with given the relationship is I’m not sure what this guy do but with Biden you kind of knew what the what the what what would uh uh would happen we didn’t pull out of
NATO under Trump Trump trump has been very clear that he thinks that some of the countries over here have been given not a free ride but they’ve been America has been carrying the bulk in Europe and that Europe needs to do more for itself because there’s domestic pressure to do
That from Americans who say you’re spending all this money overseas but what about us you’ve left us behind um and it was those Americans that are looking say why are we sending this money abroad building troops in Europe when we have our own problems on the border and we can’t put troops across
The border to defend the border so I think he’s reacted to that I don’t see any evidence myself that he’ll pull out of NATO uh but that I think he would like to make sure that we get uh more contributions from some of the other NATO countries pulling out of NATO is
Also complicated on the president acting alone you have a senate in the United States to do most of these foreign policy issues you need 60 votes in the Senate he’s not going to have that Biden doesn’t have that getting 60 votes in a closely divided country is very very
Difficult so for all of the discussion we see about Donald Trump’s going to do this he’s GNA we have a system of checks and balances that holds pretty firm and it’s it’s been tested uh but I I don’t see the I don’t see the the threat that
You do but of course I’m not in the I’m not in the German Army and listen to the German press uh the way you do either but I don’t think there’s any danger pulling out of NATO all right we have questions from the YouTube channel yes exactly there is one
Question how do you think a second term for Trump will differ from the first one regarding him being a potential danger for the American democracy well let me I’ll again I’ll take the bullet on that um you right now you have Democratic secretaries of states and States across the country
Trying to take Donald Trump off the ballot unilaterally basically saying we we think he was part of an Insurrection he shouldn’t this unprecedented in American history you have this independent group No Labels coming on Democratic secretaries of State trying to deny them access to the B that’s the
Ultimate voter suppression in my mind we think voters ought to have their say uh president has 91 indictments all from democratic District Attorneys um so if anybody is undermining democracy it’s not just trump it it’s it’s the uh the Democrats are I think making their Fair contribution as well let me just so
We’ll say one other thing and get back historically in 2005 uh it was a close election between John KY and George W bush bush won the majority of the vote nearly and he won the Electoral College uh by carrying Ohio he carried Ohio by 100,000 votes when it came to certification vote
Between the house and the Senate 31 Democrats voted not to certify Ohio and so they the Congress had to go back into session and hold another vote and come back to certify that but 31 Democrats voted we’re not going to certify uh this election which would have if if it were
Counted could have overturned the election nobody in the Press said anything about it in fact some of these members were applauded because they were standing up and making a point about voting rights uh for African-Americans that had stood in long lines fast forward to 2021 and you read the manifesto by House
Republicans who were questioning a couple of the states they were making the same point they were basically saying look this was an election during a pandemic we’ve had voter rules that have been in place in these states that have been voted by state legislator and these rules were changed unilaterally in
Some cases without approval by the state legislature on absentee ballots dropboxes mail-in ballots things that in in many cases Republicans felt led to questionable activity and they were just making the same point in these very closely contested States they weren’t going to overturn the election but they
Voted not to certify the first time out it would have come back for a full Congressional vote uh at the end so really had no danger in doing that um but they to make the same kind of point and the Press goes ballistic they went why they go ballistic because you had
The crowd march on the capital incited by President Trump which I think was the wrong thing to do and we didn’t have enough policemen National Guard the kind of thing we’ve had for many other protests at the capital they broke through the ranks and rans Sack the
Capital it’s a sad day for the country I can tell you as a former member looked like the visigoth sacking real uh those people are being prosecuted as they should be and we should come down hard on them uh but when you look at the question about democracy I think it goes
Both ways I think these rules have gotten flimsy and each party is is uh using whatever they can to advance their agendas and I think some of the Norms have not only been broken but some of the guardrails we’ve had to democracy are being abused by both parties as they
Try to advance their agenda and uh I let me go Steve if you want well let me maybe just remark that there is a a qualitative difference between a few dozen Democrats protesting um in issue by not certifying an election that is clearly one by one candidate the other
Candidate has um has admitted this has conceded and an election uh where the losing candidate refuses to accept this and actively tries to overturn an election result and tries to use Congress to accomplish this uh that is a bit of a difference well it it is a difference in magnitude but when you
Talk about Congress certifying election results that were certified by the secretary of state that precedent was set by democrats that had stayed since we have not seen this since the election of 1876 so precedents are stubborn things and when you start Prosecuting presidents don’t think that there isn’t
Retaliation somewhere down the line and that’s that’s sad for America all right well let me mat this um Tom and I do have a respectful disagreement on this um I I worry deeply uh about what will happen to democracy and the Norms of democracy in our institutions if Donald Trump is
Reelected it it animates me it’s one of the reasons that I remain as involved as I do how many of you have heard of the uh historian and uh the theorist Robert k the author of The Scholar well I commend to your attention uh a piece he did recently called let’s
Face it where we’re heading towards dictatorship Robert Kagan is not a liberal Democrat he’s actually a principled conservative center right uh analyst of foreign policy National Security and he writes in this piece that he believes uh and I agree with him that if Donald Trump is elected that we
Are looking at uh a a de a uh very serious attack and assault on Democracy I’ll give you a couple of of examples on why I believe he’s right if you talk to folks um who are close to Donald Trump they will tell you that the problem with
His first term wasn’t that he went too far it’s that he didn’t go far enough that he was restrained by disloyalty the disloyalty of what they call the Deep state which is another word for the Civil Service the professional Civil Service the disloyalty of secretaries of state or national security advisors or
Secretaries of defense who refus to carry to do what he wanted to do they’re gone now if president Trump is elected he is going to impose a very strict loyalty test on the people who join him for a second Administration and I’m very deeply concerned that those folks represent some very dark and
Authoritarian impulses and will do whatever is necessary to break the rules to violate the Norms to go around Congress over Congress under Congress by intimidating and harassing and speaking in the mo in in demagogic way waves that have always resulted in the most chilling and darkest moments in history so I do worry
About what will happen with democracy in a second term can I just just respond to that we’re we’re still a nation with a lot of checks and balances on this many of these things can’t happen without Congressional approval you need 60 votes in the senate for virtually everything
That Kagan talked about that he wanted to do in terms of undermining the Civil Service and the like I cheered the commit in Congress that oversees the Civil Service and has jurisdiction over the Civil Service civil service is hard to change presidents besides Trump have tried to change it President Biden has
Been struck down by the courts several times in in in uh actions he has taken at the executive branch presidents have been constantly testing how they can advance their agendas through executive order and through Regulatory Agencies this didn’t start with Trump this predates him and it and it has moved on
Obama made this almost an Artful uh as they go through and and the courts have dealt blow after blow to presidency have tried to move outside this I think these are Scare Tactics they work in fact one of the uh Biden campaign AIDS off the Record but was in speaking P
Said well if things go bad on the economy we’re going to go full Hitler on Trump that’s what they’re trying to do I think it’s a disservice to democracy to use that kind of language Donald Trump’s a lot of things but he’s not that and uh
He governed for four years we know what that is unfortunately if it weren’t for January 6th which I’m not going to apologize I which I I’m not going to defend uh but but for that it was a pretty successful Administration and then Co hit uh and Co took down a lot of
Elected officials across the country but the economy was going well things were going pretty well internationally all right uh thank you I have a follow-up question on US foreign policy specifically on the situation regarding Ukraine um both of you mentioned that US foreign policy is not likely to change
In in its commitment to Nato regardless U of who who will of who will win the presidential election however I’m I have I’m not so I have doubts about the same thing um about the US commitment to Ukraine um and I would like to hear your opinion on How likely is continuous
Support us support for Ukraine um with Donald Trump as well as re-election of Joe Biden no yeah well first of all I think the vast major the majority of Republicans I won’t say the vast majority majority of Republicans certainly support Aid the Ukraine and and Senator Mitch McConnell the chairman
Of the uh of of of the head of the Republicans and the Senate said you know we support funding Ukraine we’re going to find a vehicle to try to move this through the Senate and get it over to the house there are some legitimate questions being asked as this war comes
To stalemate stage right now uh how how long do we fund it what’s the strategy I mean what’s what what is winning this if if if if if everybody remains in transient how much money can we send over there and the Republicans have responded by saying if we’re going to
Send all of this money you can why can’t we take care of the Border um unfortunately I think they got caught in in a bit of gamesmanship Steve Republicans on this because uh at at some point Biden has weaken said well we’ll put money on the border and
Republicans are saying well it’s not just the money we need policy changes and they the Democrats have bed at that but I think we’ll find the money for Ukraine uh in the near future along with Israel along with Taiwan and I think that will will move ahead and I think
There’s a bipartisan commitment to do that but in in saying that let me just ask what is the endgame at what how long do you keep this trench to trench and what’s American responsibility Visa everybody else uh if there if you can’t cut a deal at some point and end it and
Get some kind of ceasefire it’s a complicated issue these are legitimate questions to ask but at this stage I think there is uh a consensus in both parties that we need to move ahead with ad to Ukraine I I sure pray that Tom is
Right um I I do have my doubts um I believe that when you run on a platform of America First you are emboldening isolationist Tendencies within your own party uh the Republican party which used to be the party of muscular diplomacy and support for National Security and a bullwark against the spread of
Communism uh in Europe and Asia uh is now increasingly an isolationist party in America and when you have an isolationist party that is going up to their Republican member of Congress in a supermarket saying who cares about Ukraine I want to know what’s happening on the border those members of Congress
Go back it becomes much tougher for them to support the kind of Aid that Ukraine needs for for me and many of my colleagues including some Republicans this is the most Vivid demonstration of right versus wrong that we have witnessed in decades in the world where
Putin is doing in Ukraine and if America is not willing to invest in the right and seede the wrong to Putin the results become unimaginable which is why we’re going to need to count on some Tom Davis Republicans some responsible and reasonable and moderate Republicans to
Be the adults in the room and find enough Republican votes to join with 80 to 90 to 100% of Democrats in Congress who will support a robust the continuation of robust Aid not only to Ukraine but to Israel uh and to Taiwan yeah let me add I I I I do agree
With him so how do you mix these two together there is no question that Trump with his America first uh attitude this is by the way not a new strain in American politics this goes back to World War I World War II there’s always been isolation isolationist uh elements in the American population
Uh Donald Trump has brought this to the four as the leader of the party uh he hasn’t brought the party along with him yet uh he has brought elements of that party elements of that constituency along with him but I think the leaders that are that are currently in the
Congress uh understand what is at stake in the Ukraine and what is at stake with with with Putin and I think it will get funded over the short term over the long term like I said before I don’t think you can give a blank check forever to the Ukraine with everything else going
On in the world and the other pressures in the US so you asked me two years down the road where is this going to be if Ukraine refuses to sit down for example and say we’re not going to give an inch we’re going to continue to fight and get
All the land L what’s what is the respon I I don’t know where that goes I honestly don’t know where that is but I can’t believe there’s a blank check forever with other issues in the world in Taiwan Middle East and everything else there’s not enough money to go
Along with the deficits we’re running and and we’re entitled to ask some tough questions but I think for the immediate future I think we’re going to get that funding there and stand behind Ukraine and I agree with Steve that this is a right and wrong issue important issue for
Europe to send uh Putin that message all right one more question from the YouTube channel what do you think about Ted Cruz’s theory about Michelle Obama replacing Biden as the nominee wouldn’t this also theoretically solve the African-American problem and give give Democrats a likable nominee let me just
Say that uh we are not taking strategic advice from Ted Cruz let’s just stipulate that from the beginning let me just say that Michelle Obama is far too smart to want to run for the presidency uh yeah on the other hand it would be a politically brilliant maneuver if they
Could work it out but it uh and and that’s that’s the way Ted Cruz’s mind works but it’s more theoretical I think than practical it would be an interesting move though Steve it would put it would put the Republicans on defense right it would be the kind of thing that Trump
Would do actually that kind of maneuver it’s such a great reality T presidential Cate yeah right hi um my name is Ranna and I’m an exchange student here this uh year in Germany where are you from I’m from Charleston South Carolina yay okay um so you already touched on this a little bit
With um Biden and the Democratic party but I wanted or I was hoping that you you could provide some insight on like the selection process for the Republicans and the Democrats regarding presidential candidates specifically um mostly just because I remember when um the in the last election when the Insurrection happened
A lot of Republicans were actually turning against Trump and what he was saying including my Senator lindsy Graham um so I just wanted to ask about that like maybe get some clarity on the selection process for each individual well I I look I think the selection process is pretty set forward the
Delegates to the National Convention are elected uh New Hampshire Haley uh picked up some delegates both in Iowa and in New Hampshire uh you know in these early primaries but South Carolina is next I’ll leave it to you to tell me where they stand in South Carolina and
Charleston may be her best area um because once you get to the up country I think that is solidly Trump country um but the the Tuesday after that you get a super Tuesday where a lot of states are electing delegates I don’t think she has the finances to compete I just don’t see
A way at this point that she stops Donald Trump from having the delegates he needs then what will happen is he will decide who he wants for a vice presidential nomination that pick of his is subject to ratification by the delegates to that convention and that can present a
Problem depending who the delegates are for example in in 2008 John McCain wanted to pick Joe liberman he wanted to put him and kind of say I’m gonna pick the Democratic candidate for vice president but there was no way he could get that through a republican convention in fact the Republican convention
Delegates although pledged to McCain were far more conservative than he was and he ends up as we know with with Sarah Palin to try to pacify the convention um I’m not sure what the convention delegates will look like this time they were not particularly Pro Trump last
Time but they were bound to Trump because he had won these primaries the other thing I would say is um uh the Democrats did switch out traditionally we’ve had New Hampshire F uh Iowa first and New Hampshire second and then you moved to South Carolina but South
Carolina was the primary that that that saved the presidency for Biden last time it’s what made him he had run fourth I think in Iowa or fifth in New Hampshire he he was kind of running well behind everybody before they got to South Carolina and the African-American vote
Coess behind him and the other Democrats decided after South Carolina we’ve got to stop Bernie Sanders and so they coales behind uh Biden as the person best able to to stop Sanders and therefore beat Donald Trump and and it worked so this time around as kind of a
Thank you to kurn and putting and recognizing that New Hampshire and Iowa are basically all white state States they put South Carolina first which is why the Democrats didn’t have a caucus in Iowa and the New Hampshire primary uh would did not pick any delegates it was
Kind of a beauty contest that Biden didn’t even participate in but Biden will do obviously very well in South Carolina given the makeup of that Democratic uh P primary uh uh electorate which in on the Democratic side is I think majority African-American and he
Will be able to you know he’ll go to the convention and I expect to get a repeat of what we had last time that that would be my take on it Steve all right um Mr Davis Mr Israel and I have a question about well the situation in
Asia um I’m from China and I we’ve talked with Professor heis this morning about us China conflict in the future and I wonder how will the states react when there um well a regional conflict in Taiwan Street or even worse a fulls scale conflict between us and China and because of well
The unclear nation National status of Taiwan in the international society and even another thing is America is supporting Israel and Ukraine at the same time and well this year is election year and what if China make a bold move to take operation that’s a good question
So um let me uh it’s a it’s a wonderful question uh and uh let me let me try and address it first of all unlike Putin and the Kremlin uh Beijing continues to have highly rational thinkers and strategists who make calculations based on uh the lowest risk possible they are very
Proportionate they are very careful they calibrate I believe that one of the positive byproducts of the robust Biden response to Ukraine has been a calculation in Beijing that it would not be a good idea to go into Taiwan putting aside all of the exceedingly difficult operational
Challenges that the pla would have in an invasion of Taiwan putting all of that aside they have seen over the past over the recent past that when a power attacks another power on the basis of we own that territory NATO NATO response Nations ban together funding is provided everybody thought that uh
Zalinski I shouldn’t say everybody but the the conventional wisdom certainly the conventional wisdom in the Kremlin was that this this is going to be over in two weeks yeah and it’s still going and in fact accelerating now why because the International Community responded in force with cohesion and cooperation and
Coordination I believe that President shei and others see that as a reason to continue to heighten and test to continue to be competitive and uh you know with with Bluewater Navy to continue to challenge the United States but not go over that red line now what will happen in 5 years or
10 years remains to be seen but I do believe that China has been rightfully deterred from any aggression against Taiwan based on the Biden policies uh in in Ukraine and Germany’s policies in Ukraine and NATO’s policies in Ukraine so I got I I substantially agree
With Steve um and and if but but you’re right to look at the vulnerabilities of the United States when you’ve got troops over in the Middle East when you’ve got troops in in Europe defending Ukraine how stretched out could we be and does China see militarily is this a time to
Go after Taiwan and we don’t have a treaty with Taiwan that mandates we come in I think we have what’s called strategic ambiguity uh it’s enough we think to deter China look our relations with China were pretty good until she came in and became a little more
Aggressive on the front and Trump has responded to that by being more aggressive against China and we’re seeing some now what was a very strong trade agreements we’re seeing them slacking a little bit we’re seeing factories being pulled out of China we’re seeing Chinese components now being barred from the United States in
Some case recognizing that this relationship isn’t what we had hoped and and had had envisioned it’s not warlike but writers talk about through City’s trap in history going back to fd’s commentaries on the pelian war when you have the existing power and ascended power and how they’re treated each other
Uh and I think you know from both both sides we’re still trying to think this out it would clearly be and China plays the long game so I I think it would not be smart for them to go in I mean the first thing you do is is you mine the
Taiwan Straits it stops the Navy from coming it China would at a minimum get a very bloody nose and internationally would be very disruptive to the kind of economy and free and things they’re trying to build for the Chinese militarily it might make I can understand why they would do that uh and
I understand with the elections in Taiwan this last time um you know why there is uh on the Chinese part at this point some nervousness over over where that is going uh I went over when President Ma was elected he’s from the other party and and I was there for his
Inauguration I asked him what’s your relationship with China going to be in 15 years and he basically said well that’s up to China but we saw how China handled Hong Kong that it was going to be one nation two systems but China wanted one nation one system I think the
Taiwanese saw this and saw that the the freedom that they’re getting right now they would not get with the Chinese regime and where they might have been able to close amicably at one point at least at this point that looks to be a long way off so it’s anybody’s guess I
Don’t know what Trump would do if they invaded Taiwan I’m not sure she knows either maybe that’s a good thing because nobody wants to risk the kind of War these two superpowers would what this would do to the world I don’t think rational people want to see that happen but I understand
The Chinese goal of unification uh over the long term and and uh I think it has to be handled very delicately can I add one one quick thing so uh I um I run the Cornell University Institute of politics and Global Affairs and we do series of very highlevel war games and tabletop
Simulations where we bring some of the smartest military thinkers strategist tacticians together with members of Congress and the defense establishment and our most recent war game was uh China and Taiwan in a contic confrontation uh and one of the things we learned was it’s really hard for
China to pull this off swiftly and awesomely it’s much more difficult than uh than people think this is a lesson that Israel is learning in Gaza and I fully support Israel’s policies this is a lesson that Putin is learning in Ukraine this is a lesson that I believe Beijing already
Understands all right we’ve uh we have time for a couple more questions I thought we’ve had a little bit of a foreign policy block now let’s briefly uh intervene here with a question that I think we need to address with two experts here in the room and that is uh
You already mentioned it U all those indictments that seem to be hanging around Trump’s neck you uh Tom indicated that you believe that some of these are politically motivated uh but let’s have a quick um indication whether you believe um these legal troubles will have an impact on the election what if
Trump is really convicted of crimes there seem to be some Republicans who will not vote for him in that case maybe a quick yeah I don’t think a conviction helps him um I’m not sure how bad it hurts him to like in New York City where
You know he gets 17% of the Vote or Washington DC where he gets 6% of the vote and you know what the jury pool is but I don’t think a conviction ever helps anybody but what we have seen is these indictments have basically United that Republican base uh because if
They’ve seen the leader of this movement assaulted by by by the left indictment I think some polling shows could have an adverse effect but Trump’s Strat strategy is pretty clear he wants to put off these trials till after the election we’re doing appeal after appeal and and
The one that was most likely to come off was in in a state Case by a Dem Democratic prosecutor in Georgia and now they’ve uncovered that she was having an affair with one of her assistants and that’s going to be investigated and Trump is if nothing else very tactical
About gumming up the works and at least trying to push this stuff out i’ add two things if he is convicted in New York or Georgia he can’t pardon himself if he’s convicted in the two federals I think there’s an argument that he might be
Able to get out of it but a state court conviction uh stays with him as would a a jail sentence so this has got to play play out it’s it’s very clumsy I mean we’ve we’ve never seen this in America before I am absolutely convinced that that New York case for example is
Completely political this is a brand new legal theory he never been tried before but you have a basically a district attorney who runs on I’m going to get Donald Trump that’s that that’s his whole campaign uh so if he’s going to find a crime uh to fit it the uh
Documents cases a little more complicated Hillary Clinton had problems if you remember with with her emails and destroying some of the evidence and and the FBI head saying well they were technically violations but you wouldn’t a prosecutor wouldn’t indite and these are judgment calls that I think will
Work themselves out uh down the road and in uh in Florida you have a republican uh judge down there that I think is going to probably kick this thing off until after the election that’s that’s my read on it very quickly I’ll just add to that just to specifically talk about
The impact on the election remember the magic numbers here remember 40% locked into Biden 40% locked into Trump what about the 20% in those seven states those voters tune all this out they’re not paying attention to the indictments they’re not paying attention to the impeachment of Joe Biden or Hunter Biden
They they’re not political they’re not ideological they’re paying attention to their economy they’re paying attention to their paychecks they’re paying attention to whether their kids are going to be able to afford uh to go to college and so I don’t believe that these issues really will impact the
Election in that segment of the electorate unless there is a conviction and if there is a conviction that further drives them to Joe Biden they don’t they may think the indictments are political they’re not even sure what they’re about but if there is a conviction they view they
View it as okay the system worked a jury a court a judge convicted him and I just don’t have much of an appetite for a convicted felon to be the next president of the United States on the other hand if he were to get uh if he were to get
Acquitted and if he’s acquitted it works the other way the other way yeah thank you and good evening to Mr Israel and Mr Davis and my question is about what Mr Israel had talked about for the entire evening the so-called lockin base 40% for uh the Democratic
Party and from a because I recently read a a news report from political and very trust trustworthy new news Outlet in my opinion and it said that um Biden’s approval rating or not approval rating but the perent of black africanamerican voters who wanted to vote for bid then
Had dropped from the previous 80% to right now is handing in 56% with 20 so going to RFK Junior and I also recently watch another video from Fox News which he talked about Michigan where it had the largest Arab American population there and a lot of them who vote for
Biden obviously it’s the so-called Aon voters a Chinese term we use call the voters who are determined to vote for one party instead of the other they are really they saying that AR Americans are really not wanting to vote for either of them so my question is how and also
There are radical lefts and radical lefts in American terms so th those berning sanders Waters also ber Sanders um endorsed Hillary Biden and Biden but the the the Waters of uh the waters for ber senders didn’t follow their leader so they didn’t vote for Hillary in 2016
Which part of why Hillary L so my question is for Mr Israel is how to win those yeah iron w back and for Mr Davis is how to uh since the rep Republicans are less likely to win them over how to make them not WS so let’s let’s break
This down uh first of all the polling that you’ve seen I’ve seen but again that polling is based on what is happening today not interested in what’s happening today I want to know how those folks feel in October if Israel and other issues Gaza have receded in the headlines
Then the data changes measurably so let’s just factor out what attitudinal surveys you’re reading now because now is not October secondly it is true that the Democratic party is witnessing an erosion of support from African-American voters from Latin X voters and that is something that we’re going to address
But again you’re factoring into that uh super Progressive African-American voters and latinx voters and say Brooklyn New York what Biden’s going to win New York I want to know what’s happening with those voters in those seven Battleground states that is what’s pertinent not what’s happening with them
In Texas well maybe Texas isn’t a great example uh but not what’s happening with them in California or New York or Alabama final point on this is that that it is true that highly Progressive mostly young people in the electorate are antagonized right now by President Biden’s policies towards
Israel policies that I support 600% by the way but who cares what I think you want to know what they think the diminution of support for uh the Democrats among those progressives matters in those seven Battleground States and two in particular that I would mention Michigan
For example so to win Michigan Joe Biden has to have very robust turnout at the University of Michigan Michigan State and with progressives in Detroit if those numbers are underwhelming it’s going to be harder for him to win Michigan and if he’s not winning Michigan where where
Else is he going to go he has to go shopping to replace Michigan in the Electoral College where it’s going to be tough the other state I would look at is Minnesota Minnesota I don’t believe it’s a Battleground state right now I don’t uh I don’t I wouldn’t put it in that
Category but it could be a Battleground state if the arab-american population uh uh in Minnesota which is significant is also turned off to President Biden based on his policies towards Israel now I don’t believe that they would vote for Trump Arab American voters or African-American voters Progressive of Voters they’re not voting
For Trump question is do they stay home or do they vote for a third party and that’s something that the Biden campaign is going to have to address as we get closer to election day so it’s hard to get excited about Joe Biden I mean the
Guy gives a fireside chat and the fire goes out I mean that’s just that’s just the way it goes um he was elected basically because people were tired of having Donald Trump in their living room and didn’t want him there four more years they were tired of the noise they
Were tired of the drama they were were tired of the tweets um now Biden’s had four years and um they’ve seen that instead of centering himself he stayed on the left but not left enough for some people uh he’s the first president for a while that hasn’t had somebody from the
Opposite party in their cabinet for example Donald Trump had Democrats in in in his cabinet um so and and as I said people they don’t like either one if you look at Biden’s favorable unfavorable look at is very favorable and is very unfavorable it’s like three to one
Unfavorable but Biden is there as the vehicle to stop Trump and Trump is there uh he’s got a a a stronger base if you will uh but but he’s but uh he’s there as a as a he’s his message is to stop the movement forward to this Progressive
Part of the country so he’s there basically to stop Biden uh I don’t know how this works out at the end I think campaign that’s why you have political campaigns Biden’s got a capable team Trump this time unlike the last two times has a very capable campaign team
Um but they are very flawed candidates uh there are this will be probably the two least popular candidates in history to run again which is why you have this proliferation of other candidates and I wouldn’t Venture a prediction in terms of what happens between now and November
My advice to Donald Trump if I’m giv advice is stay on message just stop popping off good luck stop the TW good luck exactly and for Joe Biden is read the script when he goes off script at this point he’s always having to experience we talked about Taiwan he he
Was all over the map on Tyron he said we’ll defend Taiwan and his off his office says no he’s not going to do we haven’t committed to that and back and forth they need to stay basically on their script at this point Trump won in 2016 in the last three weeks because
Three things happened people forget this number one the FBI reopened the investigation on Hillary’s emails remember MH number two the Obamacare premiums came out and they were higher than projected and third Donald Trump just read from the teleprompter he didn’t pop off the last three weeks it
Gave people well maybe this guy is not what we thought but these guys look they’re both of them have have huge flaws with with with parts of the electorate at this point and I think it’ll come down to our people if Donald Trump is the issue as you move into
November he loses if Biden’s the issue he’ll lose it this point that Public’s never going to love these two guys but it’s what it is all right um let’s uh take two or three sort of joined last questions we’re running out of time sure y uh we
We are very grateful for you taking the time but we also want to be mindful of the time that’s been allotted to the event and of your busy schedules um so two final questions I think you guys have hit your hands yeah my question is actually about about
Foreign policies again and this time it’s about India because um I think it’s really interesting that um when we’re talk about American politics we Al always talk about polarization and that Biden and Trump often disagree but both um endorse a stronger relationship um with India and my question would be um
How do you feel about um Moody’s really strong and radical um Hindu Nationalist and anti-muslim polic Y in terms of endorsing such a relationship and if the American public actually cares more about like security and econ economy um in terms of India being the only other great power in the Indo Pacific um
District despite China all right can I cut you off here we we’re going to collect a couple of questions I believe India is a little bit outside of the comfort zone of our we we’ll see but let’s um let’s have two more and then we can sort of wrap it
Up in one big final round uh thank you um my question would be to uh I’d like you I’d like to invite you to sort of fantasize if um there were a couple of things you could overnight change about the political system or the the structure of society
In um in the US um since we we talked a lot about polarization and and the sort of gridlock that there seems to be no way out um what would those things be for both of you you want to okay oh there’s a third my question is very simple what could
Either stop Donald Trump or Joe Biden as a very last question because it’s about these 20% that you guys are always saying 40% are decided already but what could stop it um I believe it’s probably got to do something with teleprompter maybe reading the script but let’s see too many
Cheeseburgers yeah I mean you got to remember I’ll start with the third one first that Comm Harris is is less popular uh than Joe Biden and I think each party is is and I don’t mean this disrespectfully but I think they’re stuck with their candidate and I think
They need to they think they they need to make the most of that and I think the American public these campaigns are going to be AAS to the bottom I think they’re going to be highly negative campaigns going against the other one where the Public’s not going to like
Anyone at the end which gives you some rationale that at the end maybe a No Labels party or somebody could come up at the end and say I’m not one of these guys give me a chance it’s happened rarely in American politics but but it’s happened uh I’d run a more positive bent
If I were Biden and and run like a morning in America like things are getting better like like Reagan did um but there’s still a long way to go on this and to see where that goes as far as India I think what Modi is doing we’re seeing this across the globe as
People double down on their religious and cultural bases I think it’s the the worst kind of polarization that you can get in politics I don’t think America is going to touch it um as far as we go but it it’s politics that appears to work in
Many of of these areas you double down on a base a government doesn’t last very long when one group’s in control and you exclude a wide amount of other people government I was in local government I was the head of my local government million people in Fairfax Virginia we
Got things done because everybody was invited into the table for their suggestions not everybody won but they went away knowing they had their say they got their FaceTime and everybody felt invested in in the outcome and we didn’t hate each other but today’s model is we have a coalition over here in the
Republican party which is one group of people we have a coalition on the Democratic side we win you lose and it’s not a good country when you have 40% of the country rooting against you because you you rooting against the country because you don’t like the leader so I’m
One that believes in more inclusive leadership uh that doesn’t seem to be the current model that being offered by both parties in terms of I think Steve and I would agree one of the major changes we could make in America today is take the drawing of congressional districts and legislative districts out
Of the hands of legislators and give them to commissions or courts it’s when politicians get to choose their own voters bad things happen so on what could stop Trump and what could stop Biden I give you the same answer the economy if the economy is doing well and those voters and those
Battleground States feel that there’s press and they don’t want to go back to the chaos of Donald Trump trump has stopped if the economy is not doing well uh and those voters think about well you know maybe Trump is a better deal because he’s going to stand up for you
Know for to unfair trade deals and he’s going to stop these migrants from coming in and taking away our jobs and lowering our wages then Biden gets stopped James Carville the Democratic political strategist who helped elect Bill Clinton famously said it’s the economy student stupid and I believe that in November it
Will still be the economy on the question of improvements fully agree with Tom right now there I gave you the statistics 125 moderate districts when I was elected 2030 today because of redistricting Improvement One reform One Stop partisan redistricting make districts more in the center so that people like Tom Davis and
Steve Israel can compromise and govern number two stop the overt uh opinionation of uh of cable news by reinstating something that we had in the United States called the fairness Doctrine we used to require Network news to present both sides of a story that fairness Doctrine was repealed by Ronald
Reagan it was not reinstated when it should have by Barack Obama people are getting news based on silos on verticals uh we need more fairness uh Improvement number three is more social media literacy so that people know that when they’re getting content uh from their devices it’s by algorithm it’s
Malevolent it’s designed not to give them information but to get the adrenaline and the anger flowing uh and then finally uh I think we have to the Improvement long term is we’ve got to reorient America’s um education system uh so that there is more of a priority
On Civic engagement I mean we literally have to teach uh our young people in America how to engage responsibly and respectfully uh again and the basics of of of Civic engagement in the United States these are long-term issues that will follow whoever wins in November and they actually predate whoever won in
2020 and 2016 but these are issues that are result of some un unique convergence of socioeconomic pressures not only in the United States but Germany and elsewhere and they need they’re going to need to be addressed over uh the long term I believe Oh India I’m sorry India uh look I’m a
Uh I and I’m not speaking for the Biden administration at all on this uh I’m not involved in US foreign policy I think the Biden Administration will exercise real politic and geostrategic uh viability they will continue to understand the importance of India visa Pakistan Visa V China uh throughout the
Region uh and while uh they will condemn authoritarian abuses uh and human rights violations in India they will continue to understand that India does play a very important role geost strategically and we’ll have to kind of balance in my view uh we’ll need to balance uh those tensions and
Conflicts all right um thank you both for uh fascinating insights very interesting evening I think we could talk for much longer we haven’t even discussed the Supreme Court in the overturning of roie Wade uh but um our time is more than up we’re 10 minutes over time already so I’m afraid that I
Uh do have to um stop the conversation here I’m sure the conversation will continue on the way out uh in the bus um Etc um your conversations here in Germany will continue um tomorrow for your next stop and I I want to thank you so much for for doing this for coming
Here crossing the Atlantic um and um and having these discussions with us here um so thank you both thank you for all those great questions and for coming tonight uh and I hope to see you soon again here in the de um Felix last word thank you on behalf of the German American
Institute I’d like to thank Sophia Kumo who had the most stressful one of the most stressful jobs tonight um I’d like to thank thank uh everyone for attending uh I’d like again to thank the US Embassy and the US consulates for making this happen uh thank you Thomas for
Leading us through the night and thank you so much Steve and Tom uh for doing this whole tour coming to Germany answering so many questions uh going over time with us um thank you so much and have a great night
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