Today with Red Sea a new global front line we are talking about Yemen and the Houthis who are attacking international shipping – Iona Craig is a multi-award-winning journalist. Since 2010 her work has focused on Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula. Iona lived in Sana’a from 2010 to 2015 as The Times (of London) Yemen correspondent, covering Yemen’s revolution, America’s growing covert war in the country, and the civil war that began in 2014. She regularly returns to Yemen and has repeatedly crossed the frontlines to report on both sides of Yemen’s ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis, crossing the Bab el Mandeb by boat between Djibouti and Yemen three times in 2015 – Before becoming a journalist in 2008, Iona rode and trained racehorses professionally for more than a decade.
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So hello and welcome to Insight with political tours the travel company led by reporters around the world and a change from normal it’s Owen my name is Owen Bennett Jones I’ll be doing it this week as Nick is away in the United States well today uh with the Red Sea a
New Global front line we’re talking about Yemen and the hooes who are attacking international shipping and we’ve got Iona Craig uh a multi-award-winning journalist who has focused on Yemen she’s lived there 2010 to 2015 reporting for the times of London and uh she’s also crossed this waterway
That is now contested which is amazing you’ve done that three times you said and rather uh dramatically you’ve got a great sort of bit of your CV which was that you were a jockey and a trainer of horses uh for a bit as well so welcome to you uh good evening good evening
Everybody and let’s just uh ask first of all the basic question who are who are the hooes well the houes um formed out of a youth group in Yemen called the believing youth that was created in the 1990s um one of the main reasons that youth group was created in the first
Place um was in response to the spread of Saudi funded sophism and schools that were being set up by the Saudis in the very northern part of Yemen and which is the kind of Heartland of of Zade ISM really is Northern Yemen and the houthis um were part or the houthi individuals
Members of the houthi family were part of the believing Youth and then in 2004 Hussein aloui who was one of the founding members of the believing youth he was also a YY parliamentarian but he was shot in s which is the most northern go governor in Yemen where the hoo H
From he was shot dead by yemeni security forces and that kicked off round of six conflicts between what we now know as the houthis and the Yem government between 2004 and 2010 uh then of course the Arab Spring happened in 2011 and the majority of the
Houthis not all of them but did put down their weapons and went to the protest joined the peaceful protesters and that in that process Ali Abdullah Sal Yemen’s president of 33 years who had led these wars against the hoies was kicked out um but of course s was given immunity from prosecution
And he didn’t leave the country and wanted to try and gain back power so in a classic kind of Yemen move if you like or certainly a classic s move he joined forces with the houthis then did a deal with them in uh 2014 and was able to use his uh loyalist
Within the military within the Emy military that remained loyal to S to help the houis as they started pushing South towards the capital and they took the capital in 2014 so the hes took the capital in 2014 and just a sort of pinned down what sort of group they are
Would it be right to the hooes is a tribe right so are they a tribal group no no no this is one of the big errors everybody makes they’re not a tribe they’re a clan because they’re a family of the houthis but they’re not they’re not a tribe they are um the the
Believing youth that youth group it’s founded on Zade shiaism which Zade ism is a very unique branch of sh Islam that is pretty much unique to Yemen and the zis represent people argu but between probably around about 15 up to maybe 20% of the population in Yemen but are very much
From the northern Highlands so way back when Yemen Northern Yemen was an imamate and that was a zamate and it remains an imamate for the best part really under aan rule and everything else for nearly a thousand years until it became a republic in uh the 1960s and then the I
Really hesitate I really hesitate to ask you this because it could lead to a very long and complicated answer but I me in in a sentence or two what’s the difference between zi shiaism and shiaism um well they’re very they are different to the 12 years of Iran um although
Obviously the houthis are very much connected to Iran now and in fact most recently the hthis have slightly sort of played with their version of zis and now to kind of align them a bit more with the Iranian 12ish years but because um the the the the
Zismo got more in common with the chaai Sunni branch of Islam than they have technically with the sheers of Iran um but yes what the huies really believe in and what they have put in force during their rule in Yemen is favoring hashimites um which are the descendants of the
Prophet Muhammad there are various different parts of hashimites as well separate to the ones in Jordan and there are two at least two other branches that I’m aware of in Yemen there may be more I’m not a kind of religious expert but there are various branches of hashimites
As well but they very much give positions of power to um people who are descendants of the Prophet Muhammad who are hashimites and that’s quite important they are a deeply religious group that’s really kind of an essence of their identity so let me understand that then they are not really fighting
For a tribe youve just said they’re a clan or a family more than the tribes and that’s not their motivation are they fighting a sectarian struggle which is religiously based is it just a struggle for power uh what is their driving ideology uh combination so the religious
Aspect of it and certainly the critics of the houis would very much say they want to take Yemen back to the imamate times so it becomes a theocracy again um and they do have very strict interpretations interpretations of law so they’ve they’ve instigated um you know the the kind of rules about women
Not being allowed out after dark in some cases are certainly not mixing with men and one of the things they’ve introduced that didn’t exist when I was living in Yemen is that yemeni women are now not allowed to travel on their own which some people you know which is kind of
Talibanes in that respect and that I’ve got female yemeni friends now who can’t move anywhere without having a male a male companion who’s a member of their family so yeah there’s very much a religious aspect to it um uh and then there is obviously power as well those
Two two things combined yeah and they now control what percentage of Yemen um geographically I it it kind of roughly along the lines of whether the North and the north south Yemen were divided before 1990 with two separate countries but most importantly they control the most densely populated parts of the
Country the yemeni government like to say we control the internationally recognized government we control the majority of Yemen which probably geographically they do but the vast majority of of that is Desert and is uninhabited so the houthis control the Western area um from kind of tires upwards uh
With tires in the center of the country all the way out the North and of course a large majority of the Red Sea Coast although not all of it yes well that’s the important bit at the moment so they’ve got this control of the Red Sea
Coast and on the one side you’ve got the straight of homas which has been a choke point for oil coming out of the Middle East to uh traditionally Europe but also now to the East and now there’s this second choke point which leads up to the
Suz canal and that is where the Red Sea is now vulnerable is being attacked by the hoties uh are they doing this well is it for Iran is it for themselves why are they doing it uh right now I think they’re largely doing it for themselves with Iranian
Help um they’ve kind of uh they’ve definitely done it in the cause of Palestine as well but that’s also been a great opportunity for them um what’s what’s happening in Israel Gaza so the reason their stated reason for starting this in the first place was to go after
Israeli ships and ships that were uh docking in Israel or due to docking Israel and that this was in solidarity with the Palestinians and they wouldn’t stop until was a ceas fire and Gaza and the humanitarian AIDS was allowed in um and it proved massively popular for them
So um yeah I mean the the the the Regions they’re doing it it’s they are an ally to Iran they partners with Iran they are not a property of Iran so this is where it becomes slightly problematic I think when the houthis feel emboldened as they
Do now is the fact that um although they wouldn’t be able to do any of this without Iran’s weapons that they Supply the training that they provided the drones the missiles the ability to land a helicopter on a ship and hijack it they wouldn’t be able to do any of that
It if it wasn’t for Iran all of that said I think if the Iranians suddenly wanted the houthis to stop I think think if it wasn’t in the hou’s interest to do so which I don’t believe it is at the moment then they wouldn’t necessarily and the reason and the reason it’s in
Their interest the reason the reason it’s in their interests is that it is very popular domestically in Yemen in their bits of Yemen probably in all of Yemen to be attacking ships which have the name Israel on it is that right yeah and and more broadly than that the the
Houthis were having a lot of governance issues in the last couple of years so the Civil War in Yemen had been relatively quiet since 2022 when there was a ceasefire um uh with the S leg Coalition which had started bombing them in in 2015 and they were having governance issues they were becoming
Increasingly unpopular people were accusing them of corruption there had been protests since September and so now that has completely turned on its head everybody is very much encouraging them is in support of them doing what they’re doing uh to the point that they’ve managed to recruit many thousands in
Fact tens of thousands of new Fighters in the name of of the kind of supporting the Palestinians um and not just in the territory under their control so if you speak to yemenis in the anti- houthi side of Yemen they’re also supporting what the houthis are doing because they
Don’t see anybody else supporting Gaza or doing anything to stop what they see as the as the genocide in Gaza and the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians um and I think this is also where they it gives them leverage regionally as well they’re trying to do or the Saudis are trying to
Do a peace deal with the houthis to get them out of the conflict in Yemen which they’ve been so desperate to extract themselves from for at least the last couple of years and this is why the Saudis have been so muted in their not even supporting the US and UK air
Strikes is because they’re so close to doing a deal with the houthis but they know they now know that the houthis have leverage over them in the sense that they could that could all fall apart if the Saudis took on the side of the US and UK or were still engaged in these
Air strikes so yeah nobody regionally wants to Bahrain has been the only exception exception to that nobody regionally um wants to be seen to be supporting the action by the US and UK and these air strikes or going against the houthis because all of the street across the Middle East um really sees
The lack of action that’s being taken by the Nations across the region into what in response to what isra has been doing and that houthis have now become the heroes of the hour everybody thinks they’re amazing and they’re great despite their terrible track record in human rights and and other issues that
Have happened in Yemen during the war and um besieging cities and using snipers on children and killing journalists and all the rest of it um but now the houthi has become the hero of the hour and largy as well amongst the kind of leftist leftists globally
Who now see them as these great um sort of you know upset is in the Red Sea and going to cause all these issues with the Europe’s economy and to a lesser extent the US it’s it’s so interesting you put it that way and that that’s why it’s so
Good to speak The Correspondents who got experience on the ground because in most of the analysis in the western newspapers they are seen as Iranian proxies the whole description of them is that this is an Iranian job you know the Iranians have devised the policy they’re managing it they’re controlling it
They’re giving them the targets now I mean some of that may be true but you’re giving us uh you know a much Fuller explanation as to why they’re doing it and and why they will continue to do it because it just works for them politically right and and regionally
Yeah I mean it works for Iran and it works for the houthis um I think the concern comes when it may not work for Iran if Iran doesn’t feel it’s working for them to um so much because it’s escalating too far and then they say to
The houthis you need to back up I don’t think that necessarily the hoies will and that’s that’s where you have this problem when Biden was saying oh I sent a private message to tan about this even if Iran asks the houthis to wh their neck in it doesn’t necessarily mean
That’s going to happen because the houthis have their own motivations for doing this I mean Iran has been absolutely helping them with targets as an Iranian civilian civilian vessel I it’s a um it’s a cargo ship that has been going up and down the Red Sea on on
Yemen’s Coast helping the the houthi select targets when you’ve got um commercial vessels have turned off their automatic identification systems so they can’t be detected and you’ve got this Iranian ship that’s been going up and down and then suddenly the Iranian ship went South to the Gulf of Aiden and
That’s was then where the houthi uh Target shifted to and they started targeting vessels in the Gulf of aen there’s no doubt the Iranians are helping them in many ways but it doesn’t always mean that their idea of what is enough in all of this are aligned um
Intirely and it certainly doesn’t mean the houes are a proxy I mean Britain and the us we ar the Saudis we trained the Saudis we maintained their fighter jets we did absolutely everything as one BA systems employee said but dro the bombs yet we wouldn’t call Saudi Arabia
Property of of the UK and so you know that it’s it amounts to very similar in the sense that Iran has given that much support to the to the houthis but it doesn’t necessarily make them a propy let’s just say that we’re open to questions as normal and um if people
Would like to indicate that I will grapple with the technology and and facilitate anyone who wants to ask a question to do so so I don’t know whether you raise your hand or somehow indicate through the software that you want to ask a question but uh please do
That if you’d like so you can also print them I’ve got the screen up which says Q&A uh with no questions in it at the moment but if you want to do that then just uh crack on with that so well the Americans have I think done five rounds
Of bombing of hooti weapons dumps as I understand it trying to not kill civilians and trying to reduce the hooti capacity to do this have you got any sense of whether that’s worked I mean I I I guess one of the points is that the hooes have been attacked from the air by
The Saudis for many many years and must be pretty good at defending against that kind of attack hiding their Munitions and all the rest of it yeah I mean um a lot of these ballistic missile launch sites would be mobile so they’ve got mobile units to do this for the very
Reason that you know um when s was bombing they needed to be I think obviously the Americans ability to track them and respond very quickly when they see ballistic missiles being you know sort of pulled out the ground and being set up to be deployed or as soon as they
Fired one be able to to react in response to that is would be more sophisticated and quicker than anything Saudi Arabia is able to do but at the same time I mean we’ve seen the houthi attacks continue they’ve hit multiple ships since the air strike started and
Continued to do so and actually hit the ships rather than sort of dropping missile always short of them and also when you’re dealing with the threat of drones obviously that’s incredibly difficult to um to reduce their capacity on that front because they’re easily moved they’re they’re easily built the
Components are easy to smuggle into the country and all that kind of thing yeah it’s it’s very difficult to counter that and I think I think what’s interesting at the moment is that the UK was involved in the first round of strikes on the first night um sort of we ago now
Um but hasn’t been involved since and so I I you know I wonder how committed they are to being engaged in this sort of on a long-term basis I mean on a practical basis you know they were bringing fighter jets from Cyprus and it you know
Just flying from Cyprus to Yemen to drop bombs is doing that on a on a sort of daily basis would seem slightly ridiculous but um but yeah I think the Americans are going to have to be in this for the Long Haul because um it’s not going to work otherwise and The Who
Quite clearly have still got the capability to attack ships which they have been doing over the last week since the air strike started yeah well one of the one of the points I was reading about uh this was that the weapons that the Americans and the Brits need to use
To uh intercept these missiles and drones they’re incredibly expensive they’re like4 million dollar a pop you know and a drone is what 20 cents or something and and so they they it is very asymmetric Warfare and there’s another aspect which may be affecting the BR which is you you can’t restock
These Munitions at Sea uh so there is quite a problem with just you know maintaining enough Weaponry on your ship to protect your own ship never mind all the trade shipping that’s trying to go through perhaps we should just talk about that how much trade goes through
The sews Canal now and what are the implications of it having to move to go around Africa instead well about 15% of World Trade goes through the babble men dab and and through the SE Canal um at the mo the the the first real issue was with cargo
Shipping and less so through oil tankers and LG that that was the initial impact because it appeared to be that cargo vessels were the ones that were being targeted not bulk carriers that you know sort of carry wheat or grain or or or whatever um but it was cargo initially
That that that was being targeted so those were the first sort of companies to start re-rooting and when they re-root to have to go all the way around Africa around the Cape of Good Hope that’s at least another 10 days onto the journey if not two weeks depending on
Where they’re ending up in in Europe um and I you know the figures that have been coming out will be literally probably increasing as we speak and have certainly I think increased in the last few days we’ll these the pcts have been ongoing but in the first week of January
Of this year compared to the first week of January last year container traffic through the SS Canal was down by 90% so 90 so that also has a big impact on Egypt because they take half a million dollars off every vessel that goes through the SE Canal so they’re going to
Be losing considerable amounts of money um now some of the oil companies have also decided to divert since the air strike started BP was one of the first ones to divert before that but also um some of the LG um companies have also now decided to divert because obviously
The risk of an LG vessel being targeted or is you know that house pretty severe consequences um so yeah I mean in the terms of supply chain and the cost of goods because even the vessels that may still be going through and France is kind of doing something slightly
Different to the other uh countries including the UK that got involved in operation Prosperity Guardian which was this you know this Naval Coalition that was started before the air strikes did as a defensive meas measure France is actually doing something different to the US and it is physically escorting
French vessels French flagged vessels through the Babel MAV and through the Red Sea whereas the US is just using its warships to defend and take down missiles and and and and drones the French are kind of more committed or or if you like so there vessels that are
Still going through the war um War Risk insurance now is going up significantly it’s gone up from I think it’s 0 point not to whatever it is per it’s now it’s between 0.7 and 1% now um uh for vessels going through so that cost of going
Round the cap of Good Hope which is about an extra million dollars will soon be overridden by the war Risk insurance of going the short route um and having to pay the tolls through the sewage Canal um so yeah the impact on all of this obviously is Supply chains is any
Kind of goods coming from the Far East and you’ve already seen like Tesla and Volvo saying they’re going to pause production later this month and into early February because they can’t get the component components through you it’s at the moment it’s not it’s not as bad as the kind of pandemic time when
You had this huge supply chain issues but it could get that bad if this goes on and I think it could go on for for some time we’ve certainly long pasted the kind of um the degree of the ever given when the the taner got stuck in
The seos for a week because only last week um so yeah you’re looking at supply chain issues you’re looking at therefore inflation uh just generally uh which then impacts government’s ability to reduce interest rates which you know infects people’s mortgages so um I think it’s a obviously a very difficult time
As well this year because you’ve got you know uh general election in the UK you’ve got elections in the US as well and I don’t think either Biden or Ry sunak want to go into the elections with Rising inflation a potential supply chain crisis and issues over interest
Rates um so so yeah it’s kind of remarkable in many ways that you’ve got this relatively small group in Yemen that is able to have such a devastating impact on um on Naval on shipping and on the world supply chain and potentially on the economies of Europe and hence the
Reason why you know the houthis are feeling very proud of themselves at the moment because they’re having an even greater impact than I I they thought they would yeah they’re having a global impact I mean just one point on the shipping you made the point that it’s 10
Days to two weeks to go right around Africa and into Europe especially if you’re going to you know into the Mediterraneans you it gets longer and longer longer but it’s also 10 to 12 Days going back you know so that there will be a cumulative effect to this and
And you know if if as you say this goes on for months then the shortages will sort of multiply won’t they because there will be that that that sort of crunching effect on the amount of shipping available I mean the iron of it all actually it’s it’s great for the
Shipping industry they’re going to make big profits out of all of this because costs get pass passed on and they add on to that and they had um going into this year they had a surplus in the amount of tankers that were at Sea because they built more during covid when they were
Making loads of money and so now their profit margins are shooting up you know the houthis want to do harm to Israel Zim which is the Israeli um State uh shipping company that was one of the first diverting around South Africa their stock prices have just continued
To go up and up as a result of all of this so actually you know in in that respect it may maybe backfiring as far as doing actual damage to the Israeli economy if if that’s what the hes are trying to do and and it’s certainly the shipping industries that are gonna are
Going to be doing well after of this so let me just remind everyone uh your questions are very welcome if you raise your hand I’ll Endeavor to get you uh get you involved uh vocally as well as just with your question so if you’ve got
Anything to ask do do that I mean it it seems to me one of the you risks here is that one of these drones gets through and hits an American warship uh you know because the technology for diverting them is there but I think they are nervous of using
Their best weapons because there a very limited number of them as I say and so you end up using slightly less reliable weapons to deter them and if one gets through you know that’s unacceptable to America I presume to have it warship hit by by you know a rebel Force as they’d
See it how great is that danger of escalation I think the danger of escalation is very real I think we haven’t really seen the response um that the houthis are probably planning in response to these air strikes um and you know they did use and they used it once
And it blew up a long way from any vessels and I think it was just to prove a point before the Right started they used a a waterborne IED IA drone boat so a vessel stopped up with um with explosives That Was Then detonated at Sea and that’s kind of the Americans
Worst nightmare because that’s what happened to them with the USS coal when it was a hole was blown in the side of it by Al-Qaeda back in 2000 and killed more than a dozen us um Navy Marines uh and so yes that kind of thing could be
An absolute disaster for them I do think the houthis are still plotting we saw on the 31st of December when the houthi first engaged if you like with the US Navy in the sense that um the US Navy came to to the rescue of a vessel that
Was being targeted by houthi on small boats and the houth open fire on a US helicopter the helicopter turned around and unsurprisingly sunk several houie vessels and killed 10 houthis in that process we didn’t really see a response a strong response from the houth until
The 9th of January so you know 9 10 days later when they carried out this kind of uh swarm of drones which was 18 drones and multiple cruise missiles anti-ship ballistic missiles all at once and that’s the kind of thing using sort of swarms of drones and overpowering the defense systems of the
US warships that are out there and the HMS D the British warships that that’s out there too as say they’ve all got finite supplies of counter measures to take those down so if you’ve got a drum you know a drone swarm that is massive like that yeah the risk is very high and
One thing that hes have done in the last few days since these air strikes happened they have actually been able to hit two vessels which they haven’t been doing before they had done serious amount of damage um and those vessels were still seaworthy um but I think that
Indicates that they do and have the capability and can if they want to get through and do some damage so so yeah I think the risk is very high of escalation of course not just with what the houthis are doing now because you’ve got so many other things going along
Around the region going on um with you know as you know yourself the the Iranian strikes in Pakistan and vice versa I was tossing up the amount of countries that are now engaged militarily or have been bombed or uh in the case of four of them have
Supported the US and the UK strikes kind of logistically and with intelligence and we’re now at 17 countries including if you include Israel and Palestine yeah 17 countries and six or seven non-state actors so that’s a conflict about widening the war you know the beginning All About Steve Steve Steve Kenny you’ve
Got a question well thank you very much for this very informative uh webinar is it Iona is that right yeah that’s right thank you Iona uh it’s been great I the first thing that came to mind when we started bombing the hooes was Vietnam where we attempted to bomb the Viet Kong
Into submission and was virtually a total failure how is this any different and how will how could the results be any different um well thankfully at the moment the US and the UK haven’t been carrying out you know widespread strikes kind of Vietnam style so they have been
Trying and they have been sticking to sort of military locations rather than carrying out strikes extensively across the country in civilian areas so far there have been no civilian casualties reported there have been Hy soldiers that have been killed but yes I think the the kind of mission creep element of
It is very real and and this is the problem if the houthis are still able to Target ships in the the Red Sea which they have Pro proven they are able to do then this gradual Mission creep is is a real issue and worse still in fact I
Think is the reigniting of the conflict internally in Yemen which has been relatively quiet since 20122 and I think that is a very real possibility that an unintended consequence of this is that it will reignite the conflict internally with the new Fighters that the houthi have been able to recruit during this
Period and then you have you know A Renewed humanitarian crisis in Yemen um as well as disruption in the Red Sea and insecurity in the region um so yeah I think the the the I mean you know the Saudis when they started bombing Yemen they thought it would last a couple of
Weeks and they were still going seven years later and any war that anybody has ever got involved with and and certainly in my living memory but going you know way before that um who thought it would be a quick job done in a couple of weeks has found elves there years later
Whether it’s you know Vietnam or Afghanistan they’re all examples and we don’t appear to learn from those kind of lessons uh I mean the houthis would certainly argue that the alternative to carrying out these strikes was to have a ceasefire in Gaza and um you know taking
The houes at their word isn’t always a sensible thing because they haven’t always been very reliable to say the least in the deals that they’ve done and signed um since they took power in 2014 in Yemen but that said um when there was the pause in the fighting in Gaza at the
End of last year the houthis did stop attacking ships in the Red Sea so I don’t think we can assume that they wouldn’t stop attacking ships in the Red Sea if there was a Seas fire in Gaza indeed I think they would see that as a
Good PR wi because they would be able to claim that they had forced this ceasefire um and therefore wouldn’t want to break it in the Red Sea so that was an alternative but that’s completely hypothetical obviously and wouldn’t be something that unfortunately the us or the UK would probably even
Consider thank you I guess thanks Steve I mean I guess one of the points is that you’ve got these uh air attacks now the next thing will be we need better information better intelligence about how to Target these munition dumps let’s get some special forces on the ground to
Look at where those munition dumps are then you’ve got troops on the ground and then you can just see the whole thing week by week month by month becoming a bigger commitment and I’m sure neither Washington or London want to go to war with Yemen but I mean do you worry at
The end of this this is where this goes um I think it’s very unlikely that we would get to the stage of boots on the ground just because I think the US is so averse to that after the experience in both Iraq and more recently Afghanistan that that they
Would ever want to do that um you know I think if we did go further down that route it maybe backing military units that they’re training and helping kind of maybe um through proxies on the ground uh if you got to that kind of um depth
Of of mission creep um but I think you know this is part of the reason why um Saudi Arabia is so worried about it because it could well um suck them back into the conflict if the houthi start reigniting fighting on the front lines around Yemen what are the Saudis
Supposed to do in response are they supposed to go back in and start defending the internationally recognized government of Yemen and troops or do they just let the houthis take what they want and it really takes the Saudis almost back all the way to 2015 if that
Happens um so yeah it’s as big a problem for Saudi Arabia potentially as it is for the Americans and of course you know Saudi at the moment is trying to you know pave the way for international sports whether it be golf football or or whatever in Saudi Arabia at the moment
They’ve got Vision 2030 which is building these huge sort of tourist cities on on the Red Sea and you know we’re getting increasingly closer to 2030 and you know one of the reasons the Saudis wanted to get themselves out of the conflict was to stop ballistic missiles being fired into Saudi Arabia
That put all that at risk and and so yeah the the Saudis are going to be very concerned about what the impact is going to be of the Americans carrying out these strikes and would be very keen for them not to be sort of poking the bear
In the sense of the houthis to to challenge them um and push them into into yeah into into fighting internally in Yemen and then of course you know if it did look like the houthis um were coming under greater attack from the from from the Americans would that then
Mean the Iranians would um push their the the militias they support in Iraq to attack more American bases would that mean you’d see um a t you know a rise in fighting between Hezbollah and Israel it it it could have one widespread consequences just because the kind of
Reach of the so-called axis of resistance that’s headed by Iran if if the houthis are put under pressure or or seriously threatened in any way yeah the the the Iranians can hit in Lebanon Syria Iraq Yemen and you know straight hmos if they wanted to uh so they’ve got
A lot of options Ste Steve has got another question Steve um thank you I own and and Owen thank you for more than my share of questions um I read a I thought a thoughtful piece in the New York Times I believe it was U where the writer
Thought that thinks that the air strikes are of limited value and that the right approach is to butress the the yemeni government to fight the hooes and that that’s the best strategy for a longrange solution do you agree with that um I think a long-term solution is a rebalance of power certainly within
Yemen but um uh maybe I’m just a bit of an Old Hippie but uh I think doing trying to force actory military means is probably not the answer either I mean there is a lot of argument by people um who are critical of the houthis particularly in the Yemen diaspora that
That claim that you know one of the reasons the houthis have been able to do this is because they gained control of the port of Hera which is on Yemen’s West Coast is one of the largest ports in Yemen and when the Saudi Le Coalition
Were going to push the H well going to attempt to push the houthis out and the UA were very much involved and had a uh a serious plan of attack for that and amphibious Landing in Hera to push the duties out in 2018 um it was very clear um that this
Was about to happen and the International Community put a lot of pressure on the US um sorry on the UAE and Saudi Arabia not to carry out that attack um because they were concerned about the humanitarian impact um and what it would then do to
Yemen at that point when it was on the brink of famine and so that assault NE was never carried out and a lot of critics say that the houthi say that it is in fact the fault of the International Community from preventing that battle happening and from
Preventing the UAE and the Saudi leg Coalition and the yemeni international recogniz government of Yemen from retaking her data that means we are where we are today and that would militarily push the houthis out of the situation um that we are now in but yes I mean the houthis unfortunately hold
All the power in all of this and I would actually argue the kind of horse has bolted slightly in the sense of the reason the huies were able to get to where they were before even the the Iranians got involved as heavily as they did with the houes was when s that I
Mentioned at the beginning helped them to re to to to gain for him to retake the capital sonar back in 2014 with the huies and the reason that s was able to do that was because when he was um forced out of power in 2011 he was given
Immunity from prosecution and allowed to stay in Yemen that deal that gave him that was drafted by the US it was called the GCC deal um named after the Regional Council but it was drafted by the US and there was no secret about that at the time and so it’s kind of long-term
Mismanagement of policies across the Middle East but in this case most specifically in Yemen that has led us to this point but now you have people calling for military solutions to this problem that could have been avoided by better political thinking 10 15 years ago but I you know that’s a long-term
Issue with the International Community at large and the Middle East and I think that really also speaks to the in political systems where you have a country like Iran where you have um you know powers in place for tens of years they’ve been in power for decades and
They’re planning to be in power for decades more whereas in Democratic countries in the west you were’re looking at electoral cycles of four years maybe eight years if you’re a US president and get in twice and so our long-term strategic thinking doesn’t exist in the same way that it does in
Saudi Arabia or in Iran where you have um authorities in power for many many decades on end so essentially in that respect we’re always going to be outplayed because we don’t think in the long term we don’t think in decades long planning whereas someone you know a
Country like Iran has been able to plan all of this whether it be you know that their their kind of allies and their Partners across the region whether it be Hamas or Hezbollah or in Iraq or in Yemen for absolutely decades to the point that when the hthis were still
This kind of H group in Northern Yemen Iran was also backing a southern separatist group in the other end of the country in Yemen and effectively hedging its bets because it was waiting to see what came up in the next 10 years who was going to be the biggest thorn in the
Side to either the Yem government or the Saudis and then they would be there ready to step in so they were just offering them political support taking them on trips to Beirut or to tan at that time for summer conferences but it meant they were hedging their bets way
Back in the 1980s with a lot of these groups when we wouldn’t even be considering policy that that lasted more than about five or six years can I just ask you about covering Yemen on the ground I mean you’re a journalist who’s been doing it for nearly 15 years now
And it’s a it’s a fascinating place you you know selected I don’t know it by accident or not but you you you you you’ve been there a lot and you go a lot now can you go to hooti areas I mean I presume when you get a Visa that would
Be from the official government would it be and so you end up in the south of Yemen and and you could deal with that government would be very keen to see you I’m sure and gives them sort of coverage and legitimacy and all that so they’re
Probably all over you and then when you go to the north can you do that can you go to S and see the hooes you have to get separate per Mission so you have to think of it like two separate countries actually it’s more like three because the internationally recognized
Government don’t control the South either that’s controlled by the southern transitional Council who are backed by the UAE who are separatists so Maro to the east is inter recognized government uh the STC is in theory on the same side as them but not always in practice and
Then the houthis are up in the north so yeah you have to get separate permission from the houthis that can be incredibly difficult um I’ve had my fair share of runin I will say that much with the houthis uh to the point that I was put under house arrest and They seized my
Passport and I couldn’t leave for several months um in 2015 and um yes it to get permission from the houth is very difficult getting your initial Visa is also very difficult foreigners are not allowed to fly in only in the last couple of years to the Saudis or 18
Months even did the Saudi start letting uh civilian flights land in sonar again in houthi controlled territory but even then now they’re only allowing the Saudis are only allowing yemenis on those flights so if you’re a a foreign National you have to fly into Aiden and
It is about a 14-hour road trip Crossing obviously the front lines to get into HTI territory and then once you’re in houy territory now as a journalist you have to have minders there’s only one hotel the foreign journalists are allowed to stay in there has to be houie
Armed hoies with you at all times and everything you’re doing when you’re reporting and that’s where I’ve had my problems with them because I refuse to comply with that and yeah it’s caus it’s it’s caused me issues and if I did go back again into h control territory I would have to
Reluctantly abide by their rules because I haven’t in the past and it’s caused me a lot of problems so yeah there’s no way to um report independently in hthi territory they’re very controlling in that respect unlike in the other parts of the country that are controlled by the internationally recognized
Government although in marib in the in the government side they they’re trying to follow those kind of rules as well a little bit like the Hees um but the last time I was in maraba I didn’t find it too bad I was I was able to kind of to
Get around it a bit um but yeah the houthis want absolute control of of of output of what’s going on to to know that everything um is kind of sympathetic in their in their favor when it comes to reporting so it makes it very difficult thank you very much now
Let’s just um make sure no one wants to asking questions we’ve had Steve a couple of times because he put a little note in the Q&A box uh and if anyone wants to raise a hand now is a good time to do it or to put some comment in the
Box there and we’ve got uh a question from Marcy let me allow you to speak Marcy thank you I’m curious about as you talk about the long-term thinking of the Eastern Middle Eastern countries versus the US uh what is the long-term goal of the houthis um I can I mean the longtime
Goal of the huies is obviously to maintain their position of power they’ve got at the moment um it’s certainly their critics would argue that they do want to create a renewed theocracy in Yemen so religiously LED autocratic Authority in sonar I think uh in the medium term they
Would like to gain control of the internationally recognized government area in marbs specifically because that’s where the oil fields are and they don’t have control of that and they’ve managed to stop the Yemen government from exporting oil by bombing their tankers when they were trying to export
It so they’ve no longer been able to export the oil that they they’re able to produce thanks to the houthis because the houthis can’t have it so they’re stopping them from making money out of it but more long term um I mean I have my suspicion slightly about the Red Sea
Is whether in the long term they would in the absence of having access to the oil fields around Mar would like to do similar to Egypt and have their own version of of of a toll in the Babel menab as a source of income in order to
Be charging vessels to come through the Red Sea and there were some reports that um I think from Denmark uh a couple of weeks ago before the air strike started of an unnamed commercial shipping company that had they claimed paid the houthis for safe access through the Red
Sea and uh I haven’t heard any more reporting on that but I uh it was would be very unsurprising to me if that was the case because um they can’t continue to govern certainly not in peace time without better sort of economic support um even though Iran is is is obviously able to
Support them in in some senses but long term so so yeah I think you know a kind of the Theocratic Rule and either trying to find a kind of long-term income via the Red Sea or by taking Yemen’s not as lucrative as sort of Saudi oil fields but the the relatively smaller oil
Fields in Yemen and to main contain control I I think my concern at the moment about the escalation internally in Yemen is that the houthis will push that even further and that they will try and take back territory they’ve lost in parts of the Civil War um including
Those oil fields and Mari and down in the South as well because they’ve been able to recruit all these Fighters so yeah as much to as much territory as possible uh potentially a theocracy but certainly a very autocratic State and um and and an an income from either the o
Fields or possibly through through tankers in the Red Sea you’ve got a question from I hope I pronounce this right Lois um as in Lane um my question is more on the logistics Supply chains because we have got the the problems again with the sewers Canal Panama is
Having issues with their drought which is reducing capacity in their Canal the big one that’s been discussed is going over the north either the northwest or Northeast passage and with climate change and and the warming of the the the Arctic Ocean that’s now being touted as a much more viable alternative is
That being discussed in the mix in the mix of all these issues um that’s a very good question and I haven’t heard anything about it I don’t know it’s a long way from the Middle East which is my specialty I mean I suppose my query about that and know
And you might have something to to add to this would be obviously you know Russia’s involvement and all of that um because um there have been lots of issues over over kind of territorial Waters in that part of the world and who’s allowed access and isn’t allowed
Access and all the rest of it but but yes I mean you you think that might be a potential answer but um I’m guessing maybe a lot of that has to do with the weight of the cargo vessels going through and the depths of water and
Things that might be be beyond my I said beyond my pay grade beyond my field of knowledge that may have issues with the type of vessels perhaps that you’re taking through those kind of Arctic Waters compared to vessels that are going through through um yeah through
The Red Sea in the Mediterranean I don’t know I that’s just complete speculation on my part but yeah I don’t know if you’ve got more thoughts on that Owen well I did I did go to Iceland once and Conference all about this and and they
They I mean the only point I took away from it really was that it’s just becoming a much more viable route you know and and it is definitely going to happen but whether it’s on this scale or how the economics of it work out with ships when you talk about the sums of
Money involved I mean these obviously are huge ships but nevertheless half a million dollars to go through the sez canal and you an extra million to go around Africa it does give some indication of just how inflationary this could be because I mean you know that’s
That’s an awful lot of extra cost on on on one shipment of goods isn’t it uh any more questions can I ask for hands to go up if people would like to ask something and one one one thought that just occurred to me is the hoties have got this situation now where everyone’s
Terrified of going through the Red Sea and you know there’s far death shipping going through it that must include their own supplies right I mean where does their food come from they they must get food coming through this this water and I presume that could you know you said
At the beginning they’ve gained a lot of popularity doing this and everyone’s very impressed in the EM about what they’re doing but presum that if if prices go up there it could look rather different yeah I mean Yemen Imports 90% of its food food and goods and the vast
Majority of that historically has always come through hia which the h control I mean I’ve been talking to some of the Port Authorities in y about this and it seems that obviously the houthis are well aware of the vessels that are coming to them so that means that
They’re not going to Target those vessels um having said that that doesn’t impact your War Insurance you can’t tell the insurance company or Lloyds of London oh by the way I’m chipping to the hoties they know I’m coming it’s going to be fine that’s still going to affect
Your insurance coverage for that vessel going through those Waters um and even right at the beginning of all this talking to um people in the ports in Aden they were saying actually more vessels were starting to come to them in the South instead of through Hada where
The houthis were as a result um that’s why a lot of people were speculating the last few days that some of the attacks had shifted to the Gulf of they then it may be perhaps in response to that but yes the insurance price of the of carrying cargo through that area is
Going to increase whether the houthi have guaranteed you you know um not to be attacked uh and of course that has a huge impact in Yemen because they’re coming out of a trying to come out of a major humanitarian crisis and 70% of the population in Yemen already relies on
Humanitarian Aid and wfp the world food program had already um withdrawn its programs in Northern Yemen before this all started started because they weren’t able to uh agree with the hes about how Aid distribution was being done and in the last week a lot of the aid agencies
Said they frozen programs because of the uncertainty with all these air strikes going on about security issues etc etc so yeah I mean the the any kind of um increase in the cost of food in Yemen will lead to uh a big impact on the civilian population I actually raised
This with the hes at the beginning of all of this and their attitude was like but we’re ready for it it’s fine we don’t care this is all in this is all in the the the fight for the Palestinians we’re used to this we’ve been through
War and to be quite honest with you they really didn’t seem to care very much unforunately and when you say you spoke to them just tell us about that you just you ring them up WhatsApp them everybody uses WhatsApp these days even when I want to get a Visa I
Have to just repeatedly test the mins ministers by WhatsApp so they in the end they get so fed up they just yeah in and they know who you are and they’ll engage with you yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah okay any more questions I just want to
Ask a slightly frivolous question at the end if we don’t have any more serious questions but I said in the introduction that you used to be a jockey and as something tells me that um Yemen has beautiful horses am I right about that that they not in the same way that you
Think of in the gulf and this you know it’s not Dubai and it’s not Saudi Arabia I have been on a Hal in Yemen a couple of times um actually on the beach in Hada but they were not very well looked after the horses I remember Ali abdas
Saying he’d love to take me to see some of his horses once but I was slightly nervous about taking him up on that offer to be honest with you president has he got good horses um I think he did yes you know certainly probably the best hes in Yemen obviously
Um but yeah he had a stud and everything I I think um in sanan but I no I never I never got to see that okay well look I’ll just give everyone one last op but uh if there are no more questions just to say thank you very much IA for
You know it’s it’s it’s not a country that many people cover not the detail that you’ve done it you’ve been on it for 15 years and it really shows in the depth of uh your knowledge and it’s always the case don’t talk to the foreign correspondents who flit in and
Out talk to the ones who live in the same place for 15 years and they’ll actually know what’s going on so thank you very much indeed