Paul Poast: World at War, The Rise of Multipolarity, & Elections Shaping Global Dynamics.

In this edition of the Through Conversations Podcast, Professor Paul Poast joins me for a second time.

The episode begins with a reflection on 2023, a year marked by conflict, and transitions into a discussion about the shift towards a multipolar world order and what does this mean in terms of world conflicts as we are witnessing across the globe. The conversation tackles whether this multipolarity might be synonymous with increased global conflict and considers its implications for the United States.

The dialogue also addresses the significant impact of the U.S. presidential elections, not just domestically, but internationally. Further, the episode explores the reverberations of election outcomes in Taiwan amid tensions with China, the political landscape in India, and the ramifications of elections in the UK, Israel, and Ukraine, offering a panoramic view of global political dynamics.

You can listen on the go on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/episode/2mH6cvjRU4wTHFy9jEcpNl?si=okJSb9S1RaazG_0VjGw_lw

First conversation with Paul – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n8w3yVwNI8

About Paul: Paul Poast is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. He is author of The Economics of War and co-author of Organizing Democracy. Follow him on Twitter @ProfPaulPoast.

Highlights
00:00 Introduction and Preview of Episode.
02:01 2023: a Year in Conflict.
07:08 Moving Into a Multipolar Order.
14:49 Is Multipolarity a Synonym for Conflict?
22:34 Impact of Multipolarity in The United States.
28:48 US Presidential Elections.
37:09 Impact of US Elections in the World.
43:05 A Civil War in the US?
45:56 Worldwide Elections.
50:36 Elections in Taiwan and Tensions with China.
56:19 Elections in India.
59:12 UK, Israel, and Ukraine Elections.
1:07:10 Civil Discourse During War Time.

Thank you for tuning in! If you enjoyed this episode, share it with a loved one.

If you are listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, rate the show and write a review with your thoughts — I do read what you write and it helps more than you think!

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Where people were saying are we on the verge of a World War are we entering a World War and the idea of a World War is I think as most people have in their minds is something similar to of course the previous World War World War II of

The major powers of the world directly fighting each other sustain combat across continents or even at the Other Extreme or I guess at the not Other Extreme but at the extreme would be of course a full out nuclear um conflict which is the use of nuclear weapons

Armageddon kind of these ideas I think is what people have in mind when they use the phrase World War we’re not in that situation fortunately we’re not in that situation but that doesn’t mean that we’re in a good situation and so what we are is we’re not in a situation

Of a single World War like a World War II where it is some sort of unified conflict with two sides and they’re fighting each other across the globe but instead we’re in a situation where there are a number of conflicts and by number meaning a record number of conflicts

Happening around the world at the same time hello everyone and welcome to this very special edition of through conversations podcast where I’m joined by Professor Paul Post he’s a friend of the show he’s been a guest previously and I hope to have him many times more

In the future so Professor thank you for joining me today oh absolutely my pleasure Alex I’m glad to have you because you know it’s a it’s it’s a double-edged sword that statement because the world is on fire but there’s no one else to explain us better why is

The world on fire and what could happen and you know your insights into the whole world and recently you you just wrote an article which is not a World War but a World at War which was very eye-opening and insightful and it does shed a light on what’s Happening

Throughout the world with you know many global war Global Wars You could argue about in Ukraine we also have the war in Gaza we have other conflicts cascading across the world so I’d love for our listeners to to have an insight into this article and your insights into why

Is the world not having a World War but rather the world is at War absolutely it and this is something that unfortunately is a theme of 2023 and so hence that piece as reference was you know published in November 2023 and unfortunately it could probably also be a theme of 2024 of course

There’s other themes we could talk about 2024 um but the know the main idea is that this is not something that is in my view a one-off this is something that we need to be prepared for thinking about for quite a while and so the idea that

We’re not in a world war but a world out war is the following so world war was a phrase that was used quite a bit at the beginning of the the war in Ukraine or at least the Russian full invasion of Ukraine to be more accurate back in

February of 2022 where people were saying are we on the verge of a World War are we entering a World War and the idea of a World War is I think as most people have in their minds is something similar to of course the previous World

War World War II of the major powers of the world directly fighting each other sustained combat across continents or even at the Other Extreme or I guess at the not Other Extreme but at the extreme would be of course full out nuclear um conflict which is the use of nuclear weapons

Armageddon kind of these ideas I think is what people have in mind when they use the phrase World War and as I’m arguing in this piece and I’ve brought this up in some other context as well is we’re not in that situation fortunately we’re not in that situation but that

Doesn’t mean that we’re in a good situation in so what we are is we’re not in a situation of a single World War like a World War II where it is some sort of unified conflict with two sides and they’re fighting each other across the globe but instead we’re in a

Situation where there are a number of conflicts and by number meaning a record number of conflicts happening around the world at the same time and that’s what I mean by the fact that we’re in a world at war as opposed to a single global war now a lot of

These wars are connected not all of them are connected and even when the wars aren’t connected and of course this is something we can absolutely talk about there could be some common causes to these wars even if one war is not connected to the other but that’s what

We mean by being a world at war and part of the basis for This was um a quantitative basis you know how do I come up with that number and what I point to is data coming from the oopsa conflict data project and that is out of

Upsa University in Sweden this is a long-standing project where they code the prevalence and presence of armed conflict around the world and they’ve been doing this project since the 1980s but they have this data going back into the 1940s and really a little bit earlier but the the main part of the

Data is after 1945 after World War II and according to those data 20 2023 witnessed the most armed conflicts in the world since 1945 so basically since the end of World War II let alone the end of the Cold War which of course the end of the Cold War think it about

1990 991 people saying oh this is the quote end of history in our new age unipar moment and everything but 2023 actually saw the most conflict in the world since the end of World War II and so that puts in perspective what we mean by 2023 being this year of conflict and

Specifically being that we are in a world at war as opposed to a World War wow I didn’t know that that fact that you know it’s been the the highest level of of war in in in the since you know so since the catastrophic events of World War II that’s that’s mindboggling

And Professor my my question here is you know you also touch on how one of the causes that we we can discuss on is how the world is moving from a unipolar order to a multipolar order and how that is influencing the conflicts that we’re seeing and how they’re unraveling and

Cascading so what is leading to this multi-polar order and how is that influencing for the you know to the to to cause so many wars and what does this mean to you know putting it much much into a broader scale to the stability of of an entire system based on a unipolar

Order which is you know the United States so the idea this is really a core question that you’re asking here and there there’s two parts to it as you point out there is both how is it that we’re moving into a multipolar order and of course we should clarify exactly what

Do we mean by a multi-polar order and then to the other part of your question why is it that moving into multipolar order would create conditions for more conflict right and so those are kind of the two elements to it so first of all let’s talk about the

Multi-polar order so what we mean in my discipline international relations when we use the phrase polar we’re course we’re referring to the number of major powers in the world as a pole right and so hence you can have a multipolar system where there’s multiple major powers you can have a bipolar system

Which is typically how we think of the Cold War era where the US and the Soviet Union were the two poles you can have a unipolar system which is how people thought about and how indeed not even thought about but kind of the reality of the post immediate postc Cold War World

Right and this was even referred to as the unipolar moment where the United States was the sole Global power during the 1990s into the 2000s and what has been happening over say the past 10 to 15 years is there’s been this gradual change in the International System going from

Unipolarity the ending of the unipolar moment to the emergence of multipolarity and that is due to the rise of China which of course is something that many of us talked about and many pundit have been a lot written on that over the past decade but also the Resurgence of Russia

And even though Russia Ria of course economically speaking is not at the same level the United States or China but they have developed enough militarily economically to be able to be in a position to influence global events especially Regional events but events throughout the Eurasian continent and

Super continent if you will and so that is those are two of the key additional polls on the United States now there’s a lot of debate about is the US still the first among equals right that might be M multipolar that doesn’t mean all the

Polls are of the same size you can have a situation where the us could still be the largest economy could still be the largest military but these other countries are at a point themselves where they can start to influence global politics so you can have a multi-polar

System without all the polls being of equal size but the reason why this would start to create conditions for more conflict is because of a phrase that’s been used quite a bit over the past several years almost to the point of where people have you know rolled their eyes when they

Hear this phrase and that is great power competition right you know that okay there’s been this because we now have the emergence of multipolarity we now have these major Powers here or great Powers well what do they do they start to compete with each other compete with each other for influence in their

Respective regions compete with with each other for influence on the global scale not just militarily but economically diplomatically Etc and the consequence of that great power competition can be well there can be several consequences of it one of them is that competition itself can lead to conflict especially if one of the

Entities that is causing the conflict is one of those great Powers so that would be of course the case of Russia with Ukraine that if Russia is attacking Ukraine and if part of the Dynamics that’s leading Russia to attack Ukraine is Ukraine’s relationship with the other

Pole United States that is one of the ways in which great power competition can feed into conflict but the other way it can feed into conflict is great power competition can lead to great power distraction right and that is that if the great powers are competing with each

Other and focused on each other then they’re not trying to solve all the other issues in the world right and so this was one of the things that during the unipolar moment I mean almost to the point to where not even almost to the point it was to the point

To where we would almost where we would make fun of it which was that the US was the world’s police force right I mean that was the the movie you know Team America World Police right and but that movie was capturing this idea that the United States was the only country in

The world that could go around and try to solve all the other problems that were happening around the world even to the point of where the US us is creating it further creating Problems by trying to do that you might have had good intentions but is going around creating further

Issues but during the unipolar moment that did seem to be something the US was at least trying to do there was a phrase I think it is associated with Hillary Clinton especially when Clinton became Secretary of State but it was the idea of be caught trying right just even if

You can’t fix the problem at least be caught trying to fix the problem right the US needs to try to be involved everywhere trying to address lower level conflicts not just the big conflicts but part the reason why the us could do that is they didn’t have another major power

That they needed to be focused on but as you have this great power competition Rising well now the US is like well we don’t need to deal with this issue over there or we can’t deal with this issue over there because we have our resources dedicated towards countering China’s

Ambitions towards Taiwan or we have our resources dedicated towards trying to stop r Russia in Ukraine so we can’t go around and try to address all these smaller issues that then in turn could flare up and that is another way in which the rise of multipolarity can lead

To this issue of growing conflict and that’s in conjunction with the fact that the US itself might be part of the contributor to multipolarity might be that the US itself is actually declining in power which means it just simp doesn’t have the resources now to go around and address all of these issues

So that’s the way in which multipolarity could feed into conditions that create a world at war wow and so there’s so many questions that I that I’ve written down I feel that I need to address a crucial one which is given that with the United States being you know the the hedgemon

Of the world we would still see conflicts worldwide we would still see Wars or proxies you know happening across the world but like you say the implication of of the United States falling as the hemon of the world is leading you know you could you could

See the the graph you know power of the United States decreasing a Cascade of words of Wars increasing so there’s like a correlation in a sense you you could argue like you just you just mentioned with multipolarity so Professor the first question that comes into mind is is

Multipolarity a synonym of conflict will we just see a continuous conflict now that the United States or rather the world as a whole is not used to or is starting to get used to uh order a global order without the United States being the sole leader or at least the

Perceived leader is that the norm I think there’s a lot I I really like this question because there’s a lot we can unpack with it right so first of all just I think to directly answer your question I don’t think multipolarity is a synonym for

Conflict but this gets to the heart of a whole debate that international relations SCS have had for decades going back into the Cold War which is that is multipolarity more closely associated with conflict or is bipolarity more stable this was a big debate during the Cold War was which of these systems

Tends to be more closely associated with conflict is it multipolarity is it bipolarity and there were you know people on either side who argued oh well now multipolarity there’s more great powers to rectify things so that should lead to more stability there were others who said no bipolarity because each of

The respective major powers can kind of reel in their subordinates if you will you know their allies that are in their respective blocks of course you know this is an abstraction of just thinking about the Cold War World and that should lead to less conflict so there was a

Whole debate back and forth about which of these is more stable let alone than bringing in unipolarity and there were of course I had already laid out the argument of why people viewed the quote Pax Americana or the unipolar moment as potentially being one that would bring about stability but there were others

Who would point out well no unipolarity can lead to just as much conflict because maybe the unipole doesn’t feel constrained right and so they feel like they can get involved in all these conflicts and actually fat conflict and now of course be used to explain why the

US like had the invasion of Iraq in 2003 the US felt like it was in a position it could just do that who’s going to stop them so there’s a whole debate about you know which of these polarities is more or less associated with more conflict my

Own view is that multipolarity tends to be associated with more conflict um you know that’s I’ve always kind of come down on that side mostly because first of all the two world wars were a product of multipolarity so I think that’s the the first thing that we can see um the

Second reason is that the 19th century itself was actually a time of a lot of conflict and that was indeed a time of multipolarity the Cold War of course we have to be clear the Cold War it’s a misnomer that the Cold War was cold there was a lot of conflict going on

Around the world we’ve never had a year over the past 200 plus years there’s never been a year where there has not been a war happening somewhere in the world there’s always been war is always happening somewhere but there’s been times where there’s been more of it happening and less of it

Happening and we’re in one of those times where there’s more of it happening which again to me is consistent with this idea of multipolarity contributes to more conflict so I think that that is a big reason why we’re seeing this now another potential element of what your

Question gets at is kind of thinking about this notion of order and thinking about the phrase that was used that’s been used a lot and again there another one of these phrases that’s been used a lot to the point of criticism but that is the idea of the liberal International order right and

This is of course the idea that the us through the unipolar mement LED this International System that’s based on international trade international institutions rule of law of course it’s like another phrase used for it is rules based order so on and so forth and that this would

Help Foster peace and indeed that is a comment that’s been used by many many say US presidents over the past eight decades has been that um our liberal International order or the international order led by the United States helps to Foster peace now of course there’s still

A lot of War happening but it’s you know there’s not the war between major powers like World War II is the idea what we’ve been witnessing with the rise of multipolarity is um a growing assertiveness of certain countries to not want to be part of that order and

Indeed you could view what’s happening as part of this transition away from trying to create a single order for the International System a rules-based order and potentially the system bifurcating into two orders right splitting into one where it’s a US Le order quote Western order if you want to call it that and

The other which is in order of Russia China the countries that typically have been Associated through what’s called bricks except with the you know you know and of course a couple of those countries who are Brooks countries like India and Brazil are kind of playing both sides they’re like trying to figure

Out which side do we want to go and it’s very clear especially in the case of a country like India where they’re like well we’re not fully on board with Russia and China but we’re also not fully on board with the United States and indeed we’re going to continue to

Trade with Russia um you know and so you can see where there’s like this jostling and kind of this beginning to split of the order that is another contributor to the conflict and can be yet another reason why you would see multipolarity being associated with more conflict wow and yeah you you just

Touched on on bricks and how perhaps in a way there’s these coalitions bring coming together and that also comes into play when we see I I’ve also seen that you’ve commented on you know what’s happening in Yemen especially with the hoodies and and how there was a coalition of Nations you know United

States you had Great Britain you have many nations that decided to come together to prevent that and to stop the the shipments the the the taken of of of ships and of the disruption of the Red Sea and the disruption of you know oils uh trade and Etc all of those things and

So the question here is twofold Professor is the United States does continue to to interfere or rather intervene in the global scale of course we’ve seen it with the war in Ukraine we’ve seen it with a now recent war in Gaza and at the same time we’re also

Seeing the United States falling down in the House of Cards you could say in the International House of Cards and so the question here is because personally speaking of course I’m I’m biased I live in the United States but when I see them intervening it does imply that we still

Have the intentions of maintaining stability but on the other hand like you say the with the with the statement of Hillary Clinton saying we need to just show that we’re doing something and so how much of this line between you know actually intervening we we saw the air

Strikes yesterday in fact versus just showing is happening and how much will the US continue to intervene in these kind of situations because now it’s a very direct intervention with air strikes in Yemen versus selling guns to and arms to Ukraine or uh you supporting

The war in Gaza in you know in Israel’s uh perspective and so I don’t know if I’m explaining myself but these these two situations so I think no I I think you’re you’re explaining yourself very well and that to me the heart of your question is we’re still seeing the us

Being caught trying right you know we’re still seeing the us being involved and I think that in many ways a lot of what you just highlighted illustrates exactly the heart of the issue meaning okay we have the US involved in Ukraine they are assisting Ukraine they’re arming Ukraine resources money diplomatic support

Holding together the Coalition of sanctions against Ukraine these are all things that the Biden Administration has been working very hard to do since February of 2022 and of course the US has been supporting Ukraine even going back further because of Russia’s annexation in 2014 yeah but then you start to layer on

Top of that other issues right there’s other crises that start to come up and of course most notably is the war in Gaza which you know again is another one of these conflicts that didn’t come out of nowhere it’s not like oh wait you know why why is there a conflict between

Israel and the Palestinians or Israel and Hamas like that’s unheard it’s like well no they’ve been fighting they’ve had Conflict for years this was a conflict that kind of goes through phases in terms of becom becoming more escalated less escalated and indeed October of 2023 was one of these

Escalations well now all a sudden the US is like okay well we’ve got to address this so you right away saw where immediately there were constraints the US had resources dedicated towards Ukraine and they’re like well we can’t send we don’t have enough Rockets I mean literally we do not have enough

Munitions to send to both Ukraine and Israel because they’re try to support both of them so they divert some of the Munitions from Ukraine to Israel now we can debate about whether they should have done that and there’s a whole other you know side of this and of course

That’s playing out right now indeed in the um International court of justice with South Africa bringing the genocide charges against Israel but to to at least set that aside for now the main point is just that you saw the US is right away like resource constraint we

Can’t support both of these to the level that we need to then or at least that we want to then on top of that you now have the a KnockOn effect or a related conflict a conflict related to Gaza which is of course the conflict happening in the Red Sea with the

Houthis that they’re attacking these ships primarily their claim for attacking the ships is that these are ships that are destined to send arms or supplies to Israel and we’re doing this as an effort to try to Stop Those because of the war in Gaza and also as a form of punishment for the

West for supporting Israel and now you see the us along with Coalition Partners trying to address that problem right and that is one that at least the US is somewhat well positioned to address because the US Navy is of course one of the main uh entities that’s addressing

That problem the Navy is not as involved in the other two conflicts but it’s points that okay yet again here here’s another conflict that now the US has to get involved with and if you start layering these conflicts on top of each other and you see this cascading of

Conflicts you can start to see where it’s like there’s too many conflicts in too many places too often something has to give either us resources have to give or somehow they have to try to end these conflicts and that then leads into other concerns such as is the US going

To put pressure on Ukraine to say hey we got too many issues and it doesn’t look like you’re going to take back your territory from Russia so could you maybe negotiate a ceasefire right you know that’s kind of the the the next concern is if the US is this constrained then the Biden

Administration is going to say you know is there a way to kind of relieve the pressure but not do so by abandoning the country but by saying can we try to end this conflict and so that is where so to me that’s kind of the heart of your

Question is that we are indeed seeing the US trying still to address all these problems but they’re running into these constraints and one of those constraints is of course you know we’re getting very close the closest we obviously just because of the loss of time to an election a presidential election in the

United States and so the concern here is at least for me that the United States trying to solve all of these global conflict and diplomatically with resources just like you mentioned we have here an inner crisis in the United States and quote unquote crisis I say because a lot of people are

Putting a lot of attention into this election in particular and so I I’d like to switch into an the section of of of our conversation Professor into elections that’s happening across the world but especially now starting with the United States we’ve seen the Republican Arena candidate just narrowing down into two mainstream

Candidates others are contending are still trying to condem contend and we’re also seeing President Biden trying to continue uh there his run and he’s his Senor as president and so how is this ongoing you know global conflict World at War influencing the you know domestic situation in the United States and how

Do you see you know this dance uh between trying to get a hold on the world but at the same time get a hold on a tenure as a president or you know reection or just a new uh President coming in I also saw that you created

Your B predictions for the United States elections which we could address too but how much of a of a you know a a chess piece is what’s happening across the world in the election and how much is it hurting or influencing to to put it differently the upcoming presidential

Election this is this is really going to be a central question for so many people over the course of this year the fact that it’s a presidential election year in the United States of course this is one of many elections taking place around the world this

Year for me I don’t think world events are going to have a profound impact on the US election itself um and and the reason why is not to say that there won’t be something at the margin you know you could see where Trump or Nikki Haley could say

Well you know the world is at War there’s all this crisis and it wouldn’t be that way if I was President blah blah blah so you could see statements like that but the main reason why is because at the end of the day I don’t think us voters really vote based on foreign

Policy world events uh that’s just not where I see this playing a role at least in terms of a global scale now one area where you could see it influencing um to some extent indirectly is with issues of crime and conflict in South America Central America throughout Latin America and that leading to

Refugee flows into the United States and of course that being a big issue that Donald Trump has politicized for a long time going back to his build thewall Campaign which again I always felt was a missed Opportunity by Hillary Clinton to say well what are you talking about we

Already have a wall I was first lady when we started building the wall like you know she could have totally have just taken that away from Trump but it points to the idea that the US has long had this this issue with its concerns about its Southern border having you

Know whether it’s a wall or fence but definitely mean that this is an issue that Donald Trump has politicized so in that respect you could see that as a you could see that as a way in which foreign policy could influence the election but by and large

I think the US public doesn’t really vote according to that issue it’s much more about domestic issues um the economy uh social policies these are these are the things I think mostly Drive elections you know you think about conservative judges I want to have certain judges on the Supreme Court

That’s why I’m voting for Trump so that I I think is the first thing I want to make want to put out there is that I don’t think world events or this Cascade of Wars is going to have a huge impact on the US election but I think the flip side is

Absolutely the case which is that the US election could will will have an immense role in influencing the world events I think the flip side is absolutely the case let’s start with Ukraine I have been saying for a while now that Putin this is his big play is he knows he

Can’t push out Ukrainian forces he can’t his military is not poised to be able to reclaim or try to reclaim territory that they had initially gained control of back in February March April of 2022 but that’s not his objective his objective is he thinks this is my this has been my ARG

He thinks he can hold out for a republican to get into office ideally Trump not Nikki Haley but ideally a trump getting into office who would want to try to end the conflict right and then that would allow him to be able to consolidate the gains that

Would be an immediate direct way in which the US presidential election of a Donald Trump will be elected could play into it now of course this is all based on the idea that Putin would be correct in that estimation I think there’s some uncertainty about that because Trump is

A little let’s assume Trump were to be reelected I’m not totally sold on the idea that Trump would just immediately turn and say okay we got to end support to Ukraine because he has this he has this thing where he you know he he very much has a

Big ego he likes it when people play to that ego and I could see people saying Donald the reason why this conflict’s going on because only you know Putin only you can stand up to Putin Biden couldn’t really get it done you could get it done you know how to stand up to

Putin and I could see that plain to his being like yeah I know how to stand up to Putin we’re gonna do this you know I I I’m not saying I think that’s a lower probability outcome but I could see that potentially playing out but regardless

Even if that did play out it would still be a case of where the election would play a role in influencing that conflict so that’s one example of this I me the other way in which it would play a role is if Donald Trump were to be elected

Would he then want to kind of scale back us commitments elsewhere and that’s again that’s something that was a big point of debate during the previous um Trump Administration the previous term was you you scaling back its commitments could that happen would that create would that lead China to think that it

Has an opening Visa V Taiwan again I think there’s a potential to where Trump would because he’s you know he is someone who his trade war with China I think you know you could play it to where Trump would actually say no we got to try to counter China and I think even

Some potential individuals who would be part of a trump Administration would be absolute China Hawks and so I don’t think that that would necessarily play a role but the potential still there and that’s another way in which we could see that the US presidential election how it turns out could absolutely shape these

Things now of course all my examples are dealing with Trump in many ways it’s interesting because Nikki Haley who at the moment at least seems like the most like if there was a candidate in the Republican Party who could gain the nomination instead of trump right now it

Seems like it would be Nikki Haley if Haley were to get the nomination a if you base it on a lot of the statements she’s been making she doesn’t sound all that different from Biden she doesn’t sound that different from a lot of you know so I think she

Would continue to support Ukraine I don’t think there would be much of a change in US policy if Nikki hilly were to become uh president but if Trump were to become president then it’s a little bit more of a wild card actually it’s a lot more of a wild card because there’s

This great concern that he would actually dial back us commitments but again I still think that for you know depending on who it is because this like say for example during the previous administration uh stoltenberg the uh Secretary General of NATO played this m he was masterful in terms of doing this

Of like playing to Trump’s ego and being like Oh yeah this is why NATO spendings increasing it’s all because of trump of course it wasn’t because of trump the the Allies had already committed to doing this but he really played to that that made Trump say yeah this is because

Of me and everything so I think that there’s a potential that could still happen but it is a huge wild card and for that reason that’s why the US presidential election matters for all of these conflicts they they do the elections will play a pivotal role as you clearly point out

And I appreciate it and these scenarios you know one of the B predictions you had is of course Trump gets in every ballot but the other one is Biden gets reelected and so the question here is of course we covered how a republican ticket would influence world events but

How do you think a continued 4-year administration of Biden could influence the you know what we’re seeing with Gaza what we’re seeing with Ukraine of course the support is there but how do you see the landing or at least the attempt of Landing this conflict into a peaceful

Resolution or you know four years Could Happen a lot of things could happen maybe I’m just being hopeful that they could lead to to peace in any Administration and you know Trump said that peace would be through strength in his town hall but with Biden how how do

You see the world events playing out so I think that this is important for us to talk about because my view is that this is the most likely scenario is that Biden is reelected um I hold that view for a few reasons first of all just one

Of the things we know about presidential elections is an incumbency advantage the incumbent usually almost always has the advantage um or the I should say the the incumbent always has an advantage whether or not they are able to take advantage of that Advantage is another issue obviously because Trump was uh not

Reelected but the incumbent always comes in with an advantage but the other part of it is that Trump is for everything we’ve talked about I’ve long said that I don’t actually don’t think Trump is that great of a president he’s not that great of a candidate uh he basically 2016 he

Won but he barely won under conditions in which he should have won by a landslide and he barely won so that kind of showed right you know that showed first of all one thing about the weakness of trump I mean the reality is in 2016 the Republican candidate because of

The fact that you’re coming off of a two-term Democratic president right away that’s a huge advantage to whoever’s going to get the Republican nomination Trump got it but he barely won he kind of won on a technicality and that is that already pointed to me to the

Weakness of trump as a candidate and of course 2018 there was the Blue Wave 2020 election he lost and indeed they lost control of both houses and then 2022 there was this expectation of a red wave and Trump’s going to help to create support and that didn’t pan out so I

Actually don’t think Trump’s all that great of a candidate anyhow and then when you layer on top of it all of these lawsuits he’s facing Chris Christie of course has made this argument during the pr during the Republican primary of like how in the world is someone who’s

Dealing with all this stuff going to actually win the presidency so these are the reason these are the huge headwinds that go against Trump winning the nomination um that’s not to say he’s not going to win any votes or not win nominations excuse me but win the

Presidency so I do think that the most likely outcome is Biden being reelected now of course there’s big concerns about if Biden’s reelected how is healthy you know he’s he’s he’s in his 80s this is going to be a big this is a concern of you know would he actually be able to

Complete his second term and that is going to be a big concern and then how would that actually influence things if he’s not able to complete that term you know if if Harris continues as the vice president what kind of policy preferences would she want to implement

Would she just follow the same line as the Biden Administration would she try to bring in her own views on this um her own preferences with this and how to what extent do those preferences differ from Biden those are the open questions but obviously if Biden wins reelection

You know I think someone like a president zalinski of Ukraine is gonna sigh have a big sigh of relief because it eliminates that uncertainty that I was talking about with a trump but the question would be is you know how much could that be maintained what will

Happen over the course of a four-year bid Administration to what extent would Biden himself still be in a position to actually be able to put forward you know us leaders ership on all of these issues that’s going to be a huge question and that could be something that in turn

Works against him in the general election but the only reason it wouldn’t is Trump himself is quite a bit older right you know this is this is a whole other issue of like you know the fact and many people are pointing this out that the US presidential election could

Come down to two people who are either 80 or pushing 80 and it’s like what does that mean regardless of who wins the election Trump is not the best in the world right you know what could happen if he’s president and would he even be able to

Be in a condition to complete a second term from a health standpoint these are these are big issues big questions we have but with Biden I think at first it would be a sigh of relief for with respect to supporting these conflicts but there would be another form of uncertainty

Which is well is Biden going to be there for four years to be able to continue to pursue US policy the way he wants to pursue it and Professor you don’t see any scenario in which Biden decides you know throughout the campaign Trail or close to the election or you know in any

Given moment before the election saying I need to I need to step step down I don’t I don’t want re-election or do you see just maybe the continuation of Biden’s election just waiting until perhaps let’s just put a scenario first year of his presidency says you know it

Is I don’t know if it’s even possible constitutionality speaking but if he would be to step down do you see him stepping down before the election or you know maybe just playing it out until he he wins I don’t see him stepping down before the election barring some sort of

Like Health crisis right I think if there was some sort of you know Health crisis with him then I could see that might happen uh but short of that I don’t see that happening now your other question about would he step down after the election right you know would is is

It possible that Biden has in his mind his main role is to beat Trump and if he can beat Trump again then he is more than happy to step aside and let say if it is uh Cala Harris to be the um vice president still then you know allow

Harris to take over right that is that’s possible I also don’t know if that would play out at least in the way you know it’s kind of described here where he just says hey I have to step down I could see that either of these scenarios would happen because of some sort of

Health concern which of course given his age could indeed happen so that’s why that is really the main thing to be looking at but I don’t foresee short of that I don’t foresee him saying you know what I I hear you all you’re not happy about having someone who’s in his 80s

Running for a president I’m going to step aside at this point I don’t see that happening especially given that you know the primary season has started that’s not going to play out wow one of the for my last question regarding the the elections the United States

Professor is I did a a poll on my on my YouTube channel where 3700 people answered and the question was what is going to be the biggest challenge in 2024 and 68% professors said political polarization and social unrest and that’s a huge number at least for from

The other polls which I which have seen a even distribution of answer 68% said that they are concerned about political polarization and so I think also personally speaking it does seem that it’s going to be again 2020 was a very contentious election we know Theory history but we or at least from my

Perspective I’d love to hear your your insights into it regardless of the outcome in 2024 there’s going to be some sort of social response people are you know there’s been a lot of discussion about Civil War there’s been movies that are you know going to be released saying

Civil War like you know people getting programmed into it but the idea here is should we expect a peaceful transfer of of power should we should we expect an election that is normal that is you know really the the the the CP of democracy at normal process or do you

See somehow again 2024 becoming a a social polarization moment for the United States it’s hard to say it’s hard to say because it really depends on a few factors the first Factor it depends on is just things continue to play out the way that I think people might expect it to play

Out meaning okay we everybody’s going back to what we’re just talking about everybody’s in good health and the election happens between Biden and Trump that’s kind of the first thing we’re expecting right uh so we have to assume that first because obviously if that changes then everything’s kind of off secondly that

The election itself happens and for me I think what’s going to be very key is if Biden wins how clearly and quickly is that evident because a big contributor to the issues in 2020 and it’s something I I don’t feel like it’s enough attention is the fact that 2020 took

Place during the height of covid and as a result you had a lot of absentee ballots that were issued um I voted absentee at that time and what that led to was this delay in counting all the ballots and that is something that then in turn created a

Lot of animosity or like you know and even opportunities for people to start saying hey what’s going on here where are all these ballots coming in hi we got this it’s like well these the absentee ballots coming in right you know this is a normal process so I think that

If you’re in a situation come this fall where most people are going in voting at the polls and we have a scenario where you know I can even remember I can remember many presidential elections where the the Alon was pretty much announced that evening right they could

Identify yep so- and so is going to win and it’s already cleared we’ve made the calls um if that happens then it’s really hard for Trump’s claims of fraud which will happen he will claim those I think he will um it’s going to be hard for those to gain traction they’re going to

Gain traction with somebody they’re going to gain traction with some people but I don’t see them gaining the traction to the point of leading to like another January 6 obviously he’s not going to be the incumbent so that’s gonna be one thing that’s going to change from a January 6 but the other

Thing is like even being able to create some sort of like you know riot in that way the other reason yeah you wouldn’t see that is of course January 6 happened so there’s going to be steps taken to not allow Another January 6th to happen

Right so those are to me I think those are kind of key things is that number one things kind of go in the direction we expect them to go but number two if Biden wins fairly convincingly and early in this election then it’s just much harder for these

Kind of claims that could trigger that polarization to lead to political violence it’s going to be much harder for those to be stained that that’s my view of the situation interesting interesting I’m I’m you know we’ll have to have a special episode just on the election because there’s you know so many

Questions on on on this front but Professor you also have discussed that 2024 is going to be a year where pretty much the whole definition of election is going to be tested we’re going to see more than I think 60 elections worldwide which constitute around 40% of the

Global GDP which is I think around what 2.5 or 3 billion people in elections some of them you’ve discussed in in your articles that some of them may be symbolic for example what will happen of course in Russia will it be a symbolic election or the the one that was you

Know in those blurry line lines as you write is Selin’s election you know during a war what how will a Ukraine election influence the whole world but you know at the time of recording Tomorrow there’s going to be one I think it’s going to be a very and of course

You you’re going to provide us more insights but the Taiwan election on January 13th is going to be at the time of the publishing of this episode we’re going to see the results but it’s going to be a watershed moment at least as the you know as the year begins with the

Election and so talk to me about you know your predictions about the Taiwan election of course this is to be a weird uh you know answer post the election but how do you see these elections playing out and how will they influence or at least what are some of the surprises or

Rather lack thereof in terms of of of a situation where you know xiin ping has said that annexation is imminent or you know other candidates not supporting it the whole public not supporting the citizens of Taiwan not supporting the annexation and so talk to me about Taiwan Professor I think the main thing

That I would say about Taiwan and you know there’s definitely people who can speak more in depth on the nature of the candidates and what to expect from the election but I think the the perspective that I want to take on this is is indeed on that broader point that you just

Pointed to which is that what could taiwan’s election imply for relations between Taiwan People’s Republic of China and how would China react to it and there’s a few ways to think about this one is I don’t think much of anything will change I think that you know there’ll be an

Election there’ll be some statements made by X or what have you and but basically the status quo situation is going to continue right um I don’t think there’s going to be because of the election outcome there’s going to be suddenly a great like Declaration of Independence by Taiwan or assertion of

It I don’t think US policy towards Taiwan is going to suddenly change to where they make explicit that they recognize Taiwan as an independent sub Sovereign Nation of course US policy is to be very ambiguous on that front so I think taiwan’s election is important from the standpoint of two things number

One it’s the first big election of a year of Elections right that’s that’s what I was talking about is that this is you know this is the start of really a record year it’s it’s an interesting contrast to 2023 where 2023 was this record year of conflict 2024 is this

Record year of Elections so it’s important from that standpoint um that’s the first reason why it’s important but the second reason why it’s important is because of the broader point that I was Raising when I wrote about this in the piece which is that taiwan’s election serves as a

Contrast to what’s happening in People’s Republic of China this is why annexation is not something that’s on the table because what we’ve seen of course over the past several years in the People’s Republic of China is we’ve seen this consolidation of power around president X and to the point to where China could

Have plausibly made an argument say 10 years ago 15 years ago that they had some quote Democratic features what do I mean by that they could have made the argument that yes we don’t have a democracy like the United States we don’t have a democracy we have a

Parliament so forth but the leader is chosen through an election amongst the leaders of the Communist party and so in that sense there’s some limited Democratic traing that are happening you know you can go to any time that a Leader’s chosen out of a group of like

200 but that has been even that that limited amount of a nugget of democracy there has been consol has has been constrained with the reforms that X has made over the past decade plus and so that is stands very much in contrast to then Taiwan of course happen having

These elections kicking off the year with these elections and I think in that sense that’s why this is such a a important election from that standpoint but I don’t think it the election itself is going to change any Dynamics on the ground I think that regard I don’t think

It’s going to leave to a sudden change even though G has made things about you know inevitably we will try to invade Taiwan I think that’s going to happen on China’s own time on X’s own timeline regardless of this election and moreover I don’t think this election outcome is

Going to suddenly lead to some sort of like dramatic shift in taiwan’s policy of like okay now we are assertively declaring ourselves independent from uh People’s Republic of China given that that is absolutely not what the US wants or any of the other backers wants but I

Think that that so that’s the way that I would think about the outcome of election now of course as you said this is happening we’re recording this the day before these elections happen so by the time this comes out there could be you know some interesting surprises that

Happen but I I my my prior going into it is that there won’t be any major nothing out this election will be a major will point to any major change changes in the status quo in that region let let’s hope that you know in the Cascade of wars that we’re

Witnessing uh Taiwan conflict is the you know an unlikely scenario because that would also add into the United States issues that we just discussed in this conversation so Professor you know Taiwan election is going to be uh you know it’s going to begin the the whole election year record year but there’s a

Couple more that are going to happen you know we I discussed Ukraine but I think one of the other elections that could really influence international relations or you know at least make a dent into them are the elections in India how president m is going to be challenged or

What’s going to happen there and so what are your thoughts into the elections happening in India and how would that influence of course the whole global conflict so it’s interesting that I you know this I guess these are going to be boring predictions for your listeners

But it’s kind of similar to the Taiwan one in that I’m not expecting this election to lead to much of a change now in this case here it’s because I think Mod’s going to win I think that he’s using this as a way to further consolidate um you know political power

That he has um and so in that sense I could see India continuing to follow along the lines of where they’ve been going which is a growing not Independence but definitely I would say a growing assertiveness we T we touched on it earlier in our conversation of where India is a country

That is straddling the line between the two um orders or emerging orders you know they are a country that both has trying to have relations with the United States but also having relations with uh Russia and China you know it’s a member of the quote quad which is with Japan the

United States um but also it is a country that is a member of bricks and so it’s like how do you deal with you know how do you you know and so to me that is very much a manifestation of not just Modi specifically though I do think it’s

Something that plays very well to his strength you know he is known as a Hindu Nationalist and this means kind of asserting India’s view India as a country nationalism being you know India is not subservient the United States but they’re also not subservient China they

Can carve out you know to use a phrase that was often used to even describe European policy during the Cold War a third way right you know we don’t have to be between these two polls we can have our own policy on it so I think that in that sense the election is

Important to watch just because it is such an important democracy in the world um but I actually don’t think it’s going to lead to any type of outcome that would dramatically change international relations yeah it’s it’s going to be an interesting election like you say and I think they’re very much associate

At least with me with what will happen in Ukraine at least you know perhaps they’re going to be symbolic as well we we don’t know but what are other on your perspective what other elections are you keeping a close eye on as the year starts what are you what are some of the

Elections that are on top of mind for you well I think for me one election that could be quite interesting it’s there’s three it’s funny there’s 60 elections happening in the world but there’s the three that I’m most interested in are three may not even happen this year um so that’s that’s the

Three I’m wondering about uh one of them is an election that could happen in the UK uh obviously the UK has had a rather tumultuous few years in terms of the politics and cycling through foreign ministers cycling through um Prime Ministers um and there’s that is something UK is slated to have elections

But those could go into 202 technically those could go into 2025 but depending on how that goes You Could See you know if it goes conservative if it goes labor that could play a role in that could play a very important role in a number of ways could it play a role in

Shaping how the UK continues to support Ukraine they’ve been a key supporter Ukraine could it play a role in how the UK maybe even considers revising further or revising its stance be of brexit right that is why those are that’s an important election to really pay attention to because to me I think

The in turmoil that we’ve witnessed over the past few years due domestically is not unrelated to the very things that led to brexit but also a consequence of brexit you know the kind of the economic um disruptions that have been caused by brexit and so on and so forth

So I think that that’s an election that I I want to keep keep an eye on that I could see absolutely playing a big role uh but again what’s interesting is it may not actually happen this year it could happen because they can call it

They have to call it by I think the end of January 2025 so it’s likely it could happen this year but it may not the other two and I’ve highlighted this is Israel this would be huge now Israel does not have to have an election this year but the support that Netanyahu has

Within his coalitional government is very tenuous and there is a chance that his government could collapse I think this is they were even pointing out that this is part of the reason why Israel’s been pursuing the policies they’ve been pursuing is Natan yahu himself is a hawk

But he’s also ryant on a coalitional Partners who themselves are very very hawkish towards the Palestinians towards Gaza and as a result this is kind of informing why he’s having why Israel is having to pursue this policy towards Gaza this military campaign towards Gaza to the degree that they’ve been pursuing

It it’s not a question of does is should Israel have responded to the attacks against Hamas it’s a question of the level at which they’re responding to these attacks and that’s a whole other issue for him of why his government could collapse is a big reason why a big part of his

Legitimacy most recently as prime minister is I will keep you safe well that failed on October 7th and it failed in part due to their own policies and so as a result they’ve doubled down and overreacted in my view with how they’re carrying out operations in Gaza

But this could have an impact to where his government could collapse and if his government collapses and there’s elections there then you know a lot of things could change and given how the war in Gaza has been influencing not just itself but also these other conflicts we mentioned about in the Red

Sea with the houthis that could have huge implications if that were to take place and then the final one is I mentioned Ukraine we you you brought up Ukraine as well now Ukraine was supposed to have an election this year they are at least presently not going to have an

Election this year they’re obviously in the middle of war and it’s it could be hard to have an election when you’re in the middle of a war um and you’re having the bombing that’s occurring but I’ve made the argument recently that they should try to have an election this year

Um now I should add that I came under some criticism for making that argument people saying no it’s impossible Ukraine cannot have an election while this is occurring um I understand those arguments their support is based large part of their support is based on the fact that they embody

Democratic ideals that that has been even the language that has been used by a lot of countries in the west to support Ukraine and so as a result it’s important that Ukraine still tries to embody those ideals because that’s a key part of their support now some people

Would say well that’s not fair to Ukraine you know other countries maybe could get away with not having elections but the problem is is you have key individuals who could decide the kind of external support that Ukraine receives who are making that argument they’re making the argument that if Ukraine

Isn’t holding elections then we don’t know why we’re supporting them because they’re not supporting the democratic ideals that yeah at least they espouse to so it might be an unfair situation for Ukraine but this is one reason why trying to hold the elections is important the other reason is is I I

Understand when people say well Ukraine can’t hold an election this year because it can’t logistically happen due to the fighting and so forth but I’ll just say maybe I’m naive in this but I don’t I don’t fully buy that argument and the reason why is twofold number one there

Have been a lot of things since February 2022 that people said Ukraine can’t do and they’ve done right there has been a lot of things I mean even having the trains running on time they’ve been able to keep trains running on time there’s been a lot of Public Works and Social

Services U functioning of society that ukrainians have been able to do that other people said oh no they can’t do that because of Russian invasion they can’t do this because of that they’ve been able to do it the other one is that you know the analogy some people will

Point to is the fact that like the British didn’t hold elections during you know big parts of World War II because they were under bombing but we’re in a very different environment than during World War II we’re in an environment where we do have absentee balling we

Have mailin B voting we have electronic voting and yes there are some logistical issues with those but given what I was just saying I feel like there’s ways to be able to address those issues they might lead to a delay of the election because you have to try to sort those

Things out but I feel like Ukraine those are the reasons why I think it would be important for Ukraine to try to hold its elections as soon as possible and I mentioned this year and again I can understand where people would say that’s not fair to the ukrainians that’s not

Fair to the zalinski because you know other countries were able to do this but again Ukraine is in this situation where the foundation of the external support they’re receiving is this notion of adherence to democratic ideals and so it’s important for that reason that Ukraine does what it can to try to

Demonstrate those ideals to help counter those arguments against them wow those those three elections or you know possibility of those three elections are going to be really interesting to to see how it unfolds it’s also interesting to see how you know how would the US react to an

Election in Ukraine you know they’re supporting selinski so would they support another candidate that’s an interesting topic I think for for another conversation professor as we begin to wrap up it’s been you know a great conversation we a lot of of of of topics we will discuss in future ones

But Professor one of the ideas that you discussed or rather shared on Twitter or X is how were trying to uphold free expression in a world at war and how you added that to your syllabus and like I said one of the most surprising polls

I’ve ever done in in my community is 68% of people believe we’re in a political polarized world and of social unrest and so my last question for you is how do we uphold free expression in a world at war how can we maintain you know coolheadedness in in such an emotional

And and chaotic and and certain reality that we’re on it’s this is such a foundational question to not just what I do as a professor but again kind of going back to this Notions of the ideals of a free and open Society Democratic Society this really goes to the to the

Heart of those things by the way I still call it Twitter so you know it’s okay if you call it Twitter instead of X I still call I still refer to it as Twitter um or formerly known as Twitter the um for me I really think this this

Is the way I would answer this is the following so let’s say that I was at that Congressional hearing where stepanic asked that question about you know our statements of calling for the genocide of Jews is that something that is a violation of University speeech code I would have given the following

Answer I would have said yes it is the reason why is not not because the university wants to shut down debate it is indeed acceptable to have a debate about policies regarding say what was really the overall context subtext of the question which was the you know war in Israel Israel’s policies it’s

Even okay to have debates about the existence of Israel you know should Israel exist as a country where it is and so on so forth there are ways in which one can have debates about that but those debates have to be conducted in a way that is

Respectful because if it’s not done in a respectful fashion then you can’t actually have the deliberation needed to develop understanding and when you have someone standing up calling for the genocide of a group a group that is also on your campus well that creates direct threats

To that group that can shut down the very kind of conversations that you’re trying to have so that would be to me what’s really keyy is it’s not that an issue is off the table is that can we have conversations about the issue that’s done in a respectful

Fashion and by respectful meaning you know it might be uncomfortable respectful doesn’t mean it has to be comfortable you can have uncomfortable conversations but uncomfortable also doesn’t mean dangerous it also doesn’t mean that it’s a situation where someone’s unsafe and by unsafe meaning physically not safe and having someone

Calling for the genocide of a group is creating conditions in which someone can be literally physically unsafe so that would have been the way in which I would have answered that question the other thing I would have said about that and this is part of going to you know it’s

Been brought up a lot I’m at the University of Chicago the University of Chicago has of course the Calvin principles which are or clayon principles which are the ideas that the university is a home of critics it is not itself a Critic you know the idea

That the university is a forum that in which people can express ideas and the university might have to going back to what I just said may have to step in at times to regulate that to ensure that the speech is being conducted in a way that leads that supports the principles

Of the University but it should not itself be involved in issuing those statements and so forth it needs to create an environment which people can have these kind of conversations you know to me something that made a very lasting impression on me when it came to

Free Speech an open speech is years ago I lived in London and one of my favorite things to do in London was on Sundays I would walk down to Speakers Corner yeah and I would just see the speakers there and I just thought it was fascinating I

Would do this almost every Sunday I would just go there and just listen and you had all sorts of people there arguing all sorts of stuff and I mean some of it was just crazy and youd see arguments back and forth but I thought this is this is great and to me the

University is that corner the university is that corner where hey you know what you can have a discussion but let’s have the discussion in a way that can have a that we can actually debate this right you know that’s the key and what differentiates the University from that

Corner is that corner is just an open space University does have a responsibility to its students its staff its faculty who work there to ensure that they’re in an environment where they can actually carry out this Bay inquiry and so forth that’s the one thing that differentiates the University

From that form but overall this notion that the university is a home for those critics it is a home for those people to put those soap boxes up and start talking it is not itself going to actually put up a soap box and start talking I think that’s so critical to

Thinking about how we can have open discussion debate in today’s world yeah and like you say in in your syllabes you say let’s think this through let’s think this through I think that’s a good mantra for at least you know us who are trying to critically think or trying to

Embody those values and it’s funny that you mentioned the speaker corner I went once on my birthday and I must admit the day before I went on a party so I was kind of hung over and the ideas the ideas just hit harder they were like oh maybe they’re right and

So but Professor thank you for this conversation thank you for for that answer that you just given me it does give me a lot to think of myself because I’m invested emotionally in some of those conflict and you know it’s kind of hard to distinguish between those but

I’m trying my best to do that and you know I I hope that you’re being a professor of of international relations you’re going to have a lot of of debates hopefully in a good fashion in your classroom and so I wish you best of luck with that as well thank and Professor

Thank you thank you for this conversation and I hope to to have you soon again in the show well thank you so much Alex for having me on the show it’s always it’s a great conversation we hit a lot of things uh a lot of points and

Hopefully this is of value to your listeners thank you again thank you professor