Why Russia Isn’t Actually Collapsing

Delve into the intricate dynamics of the ongoing Russo-Ukraine conflict in this comprehensive analysis. Uncover the staggering losses faced by Russia on the battlefield, juxtaposed against its ability to navigate stringent sanctions and international disapproval. Explore the unexpected resilience of Putin’s regime, examining the economic strategies employed to counter Western sanctions. As winter approaches, crucial decisions await both Russia and Ukraine, shaping the trajectory of this geopolitical struggle. Join us for a deep dive into the multifaceted aspects of this conflict and share your predictions for the post-winter landscape in the comments. Subscribe for more expert military analysis.

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How resilient is Russia and is its eventual collapse possible or downright probable let’s talk about it Russian losses are frankly astronomical to date Western intelligence agencies report the Russian military has officially lost almost 90% of the crack air sea and Naval forces it amassed at the start of

The war this includes thousands of Tanks a number approaching the total number of Tanks possessed by the United Kingdom and Germany combined it also includes tens of thousands of other mechanized vehicles to say nothing of the 315,000 soldiers killed wounded and missing in action a stark data point when you

Consider the fact that Russia only started its Invasion with 360,000 troops this scale of Destruction for a great power dwarfs anything the world has seen in decades yes the numbers are alarming according to one Declassified us intelligence assessment the war has sharply set set back 15 years of Russian

Effort to modernize its ground force and all but ruled out its capacity to conduct meaningful offensive operations which have failed to make major gains in Ukraine since early 2022 another Rand study argued it will take years perhaps even decades for the Russian military and economy to recover from the damage

Already incurred when you factor in the compounding operational and political red flags we’ve witnessed this year bloodletting in bakut and adiva political brinksmanship between the Kremlin and progan mercenaries the lack of any semblance of Air Supremacy and the operational nullification of the Black Sea Fleet to Outsiders Putin’s

Determination to press on and his dogged ability to cling on to the gains he has made appears almost miraculous if not downright insane winter approaches and it is a critical time for both Russia and Ukraine Western Funding packages Teeter on the knife’s edge and Ukraine remains vulnerable if at the the

Conclusion of its slow but ongoing counter offensive it cannot maintain the widespread political economic and Military Support it has enjoyed thus far it will struggle to convince its Global Partners to keep their material pipelines open and consequently struggle to plan and execute future offensive operations into the new year Russia has

Its own share of problems arguably it’s been fortunate to escape 2023 with much of its defensive front lines intact today we’ll take a closer look at why exploring not only how Putin continues to enjoy relative operational parity with his enemy despite the endemic dysfunction we’ve seen in the Russian

Political and Military apparatus but how he has done so in the face of such grave military losses after what was in hindsight an extremely disappointing year of Russian military setbacks there was perhaps no greater symbol of the precarity of the Russian war effort than the Whirlwind bout between Russia’s

Mutinous mercenary leader and oligarch yevi progan and Putin’s military AR cabinet led by Shu and gasimov this was for all intents and purposes the biggest crisis in the Russian president’s two decades in power and it all started when Putin outsourced the battle for bakut to the veteran armed contractors of pran’s

Vagner group as close friends and confidants the two had worked together before yet with each successive battle pran’s grumbling against his civil military patrons grew more pronounced at first his popular telegram videos often posted from the front lines called for arms and implements bombs artillery shells and ammunition as Vagner suffered

Upwards of 20,000 military casualties in pran’s tone changed he seemed to finally realize systemic issues at play that no matter how much equipment and tactical leeway Putin conferred on his troops operational constraints imposed by Putin’s military Chiefs defense minister sergy Shu and the chief of the Russian general staff Valerie gasimov

Rendered their sacrifices worthless prosan gave voice to a growing perception of strategic incompetence among the Russian military Elite shyu and gasimov could not keep their ill-trained conscripts in battle long enough to support the Vagner group’s Advance a reality tent amount to betrayal he cited alleged instances of actual betrayal fratricidal incidents he

Deemed deliberate pran’s inflammatory messages challenged Putin’s legitimacy and ignited a blood feud between the Kremlin and the mercenaries last summer this culminated in a shocking march on Moscow where prog and a thousand of his men mutinied and marched virtually unopposed up the M4 Highway toward the Kremlin capturing Russia’s entire

Southern military headquarters cited in rosov on da don in the process Putin scrambled to extinguish the spreading spark of insubordination while Moscow flung itself into a last ditch defense of its major highways airports and government buildings Putin publicly denounced progan and called for an orderly deescalation of tension

Meanwhile the world watched as the Russian State kened toward what seemed like its inevitable descent into anarchical Civil War this however never came to pass a day later the Mutiny fizzled out progan was whisked away into Belarus a compromised settlement dropped all criminal charges in exchange for Wagner’s removal from Russia what was

Touted in the press as the beginning of the end for Putin’s regime in hindsight looks as though it was simply a mere speed bump the Communist Revolution at the end of World War I had proven sufficiently destabilizing to overthrow the zar government a costly intervention in Afghanistan had all but ended the

Soviet Union’s hopes of winning the Cold War and contributed to its sudden collapse yet the Vagner Mutiny seemed to Simply Fade Into Oblivion its final Act epitomized by published video of pran’s smoldering plane falling quickly to Earth the kremlin’s runin with progan was conent with a seemingly unending

Slew of Crisis many commentators have been quick to site as evidence of Putin’s imminent collapse since the Russian president came to power the rapidity with which Ukraine recaptured tens of thousands of miles of occupied territory at the end of 22 was one such example then as now such prognostications proved misguided take

As additional examples the countless media reports contemplating the consequences of Putin’s alleged ill health high level defections which claimed he was losing his grip on his subordinates and mass protests at the start of Russia’s 2022 Invasion similar cases stretch back into the recent past these include Putin’s gross mishandling

Of Russia’s covid-19 pandemic response perceptions that zelinsky’s election in 2019 might undermine his authoritarian grasp on power fears that other political opponents like Russia’s incarcerated opposition leader Alexi naali might emerge as viable presidential contenders or that Putin’s incremental territorial revisionism including his annexation of Crimea invasion of the dumbass and intervention

In Georgia might inflame Global opinion and make Russia a political and economic Pariah winding straight back through Russia’s mid-2000s bungled responses to domestic terrorist attacks and the KnockOn effects of the tanking Russian economy during the 2008 Global financial crisis and you see that part of Putin’s

Political genius if you can call it that is his cockroach likee ability to roll with the punches public confidence in Putin remains high he enjoys an 80% approval rating not that he has much competition these days there isn’t much incentive to challenge him on a Grassroots level thousands of ordinary

Russians were jailed as part of the country’s fiercely repressive response to any and all anti-war demonstrations over the past 2 years in the political realm Alexi navali Russia’s most viable opposition leader is doing 30 years in a Siberian penal colony with no credible promise he’ll be released even if he

Completes his sentence in light of its steep military losses Russia’s economy appears not only intact but poised for rejuvenation after enduring what many in the west considered the most crippling set of financial constraints ever imposed in 2022 these measures were highly effective Russia lost access to $300 billion of its foreign exchange

Reserves in G7 countries almost overnight the ruble contracted by a quarter against the US dollar price caps penalized Russian oil sales and Russian industrial players and Banks suffered punishing export restrictions on mundane and specialized resources alike like their leader and their military Wy Russian economists have slowly adapted

To these sanctions by the end of 2022 the Russian economy had contracted by 2.1% an order of magnitude less than the almost 30% hit sustained by Ukraine as bad as this was it still wasn’t as bad as the Russian economy got during the recent covid-19 pandemic but what really

Boggles the mind is the recent prediction forecasted by the international monetary fund that Russia’s economy is actually set to grow in 2023 3 and 24 as it more than doubles its military spending identifies workarounds to import forbidden goods via third party countries and by employing a shadow Fleet of oil tankers

And fraudulent bookkeeping to undermine the oil price Gap the West has reportedly imposed more than 13,000 sanctions on Russia since the start of the war have Western sanctions failed is the spike in Russian military spending artificially masking deeper economic vulnerabilities our Western Nations going too easy on export controls

Ultimately can Western economic pressure help compensate for Ukraine’s Battlefield setbacks over the long term answers to these questions aren’t easy to come by yet bound up in them is a partial explanation for why Putin’s regime has proven so resilient Russia not only has seemingly boundless quantities of Natural Resources like oil

Gas and coal it retains contact with Nations who regardless of the moral implications are Keen to receive said resources at at reduced prices in some cases their very development depends on it and this has serious implications for Russia’s military in Ukraine because Russian power is directly correlated with its economic prospects and because

Its economic prospects remain relative to their operational situation stable for the moment it’s unlikely Putin’s regime or his military will collapse anytime soon here’s what you need to know about the Russian economy it’s one of the world’s only true Pro states with a quarter of the globe’s natural gas

Reserves 15% of its coal reserves the sixth most oil reserves and a population nowhere near large enough to consume it all Russia’s income hinges on massive exports to neighboring consumers who themselves lack access to such resources Russia’s economic dependency on foreign exports cannot be overstated the oil and

Gas sectors account for almost half of its annual budget after all over the past few decades Russia has sought to maximize its profits by selling cheap energy in the form of oil and gas to Regional communities like the EU they spent years building pipelines across Europe precisely to facilitate the

Exchange of these types of goods and then Putin invaded Ukraine fearing the renewed threat to its own territorial sovereignty Europe quickly lost its appetite for Russian Goods joining in support of Ukraine the EU decided to take the measures in tandem with the United States and other nations to

Rapidly revoke Russia’s rights to export goods to Europe the started by limiting Russian Seaborn Imports of oil they also ended the inflow of natural gas through the nordstream 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea replacing it with gas from the United States and Qatar Russia soon found itself locked out of Europe it was

Sitting on a mountain of resources and nowhere to sell it this however didn’t happen overnight the Western World couldn’t afford to prevent Russia from selling its goods elsewhere nor could it enforce such a policy even if it wanted to yes if it could then Sha of almost

50% % of its annual budget the Russian military would almost inevitably collapse what you would see would be global economic Anarchy as a tenth of the world’s oil supply simply dropped out of circulation overnight markets would fail inflation would Skyrocket more than it already has amidst greater

Scarcity the cost of oil worldwide would Skyrocket to unprecedented levels so if the West can’t afford to cut off Russia’s energy exports altogether what has it done in the short term the answer has been to imp OS what is known as a price cap sanction the West continues to

Allow Russian companies to Ferry their goods worldwide and engage on the international market in so far as they agree to sell their goods at or below a benchmark price in the case of oil where most countries can sell a barrel anywhere between $70 and $80 per item

Russia has to decide whether it wants to continue selling at traditional outlets for a fraction of the price the G7 countries can make or if they want to look for new clients elsewhere looking elsewhere might not be as good as it sounds while it can certainly find

Willing buyers for oil sold at Black Friday level markdowns in places like the Far East Asia Africa and South America Geographic proximity figures heavily in making the whole operation make financial and logistical sense this is why they were so heavily invested in Europe in the first place right next

Door it only cost Russia about $3 to ship a barrel West re-rooting these shipments to the global South doubles the cost of shipping not only that but it makes it harder for the Western firms who traditionally handled much of the original trade routes to buy in Russian shipping companies quickly found a

Workaround let’s just contract a bunch of foreign shipping firms to deliver our oil to the far reaches of the globe they reasoned working with intermediaries outside the Western Gaye would enable them to circumvent the $60 per barrel oil cap and make significantly more than they otherwise could Russian companies

Found Traders willing to work new routes re-registered otherss in countries without sanctions and quickly found an agreeable system the more tankers flocked to Russian ports the lower Freight rates became another surprising benefit for Russia over time the use of a shadow Fleet of more than 500 Antiquated shipping tankers from

Companies mostly registered in the Middle East Africa China Latin America and even Russia enabled Russia to divert many of its original export goods into new markets the West has tried to respond by imposing a new round of sanctions on tanker owners participating in the sale of Russian oil based in

Turkey and in the United Arab Emirates yet the West is still trying to devise ways to combat Russia’s ability to sidestep the effect of their sanctions altogether at least in the realm of energy exports while the oil price cap worked throughout 20122 about Midway through 2023 Russia had managed to

Deliver most of its oil sales away from the EU and US routes into far less familiar Asian and Far Eastern markets to its surprise it found neutral Nations like India eager to gobble up its cheaper stock piles today Indian consumption of Russian oil has skyrocketed from a high of 3% in 2021 to

About 40% in 2023 by comparison its original primary supplier Saudi Arabia has seen itself increasingly edged out of the market China is more involved in Russian oil imports with competition equally Fierce between Russia and Saudi Arabia for the critical Chinese market the impass has forced both to come to a

Mutual agreement to Cur tail their oil production by as much as 300,000 barrels a day to reduce the size of their burgeoning Surplus this they predicted would raise the price of each Barrel in turn and increase Revenue in the west the fluctuation of global Oil stock prices has forced Nations like the

United States to increase their production to record highs just to offset the inflationary KnockOn effect of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s decision the result is an ongoing Global oil struggle with the East and West locked in a deadly cycle as each attempts to constrain the other while keeping their own economic lifelines intact these

Measures have seen Global oil prices Skyrocket well above even the targeted cap price enabling Russia to add far more Revenue than it otherwise could at home Russia is gearing up for the economic long haul it knows the longer it can keep Ukraine in limbo the greater chance it will have to curtail the

Pipeline of Western Aid experts at the carnegi Endowment for International Peace for example claim Russia’s announced 2024 budget hints that it’s ramp up the mobilization of its economy in order to sustain a longer War for the first time in modern history they write the country is set to spend 6% of gross

Domestic product on the military and defense spending will exceed social spending the war against Ukraine and the West is not only the kremlin’s biggest priority it’s now also the main driver of Russia’s economic growth what this means is that Russia’s defense spending is now the highest it’s been since the

Cold war onethird that of its most consequential partner China Russia has has realized that the more it spends on the war in Ukraine the more it’s able to replenish its dilapidated defense industry if the conflict stagnates all the better it can continue to pump money into its military-industrial complex

Which then trickles down into domestic society as a whole the state Duma predicts that revenues will triple into 2024 social spending will increase Sevenfold Education Health Care and the like will remain steady and inflation will be negligible it’s all looking rather good how exactly does that work

Isn’t Russia unable to match the current rate of loss among its military won’t massively inflated military spending programs Doom an already shaky Russian economy yes and no Russia currently has a lot of financial responsibilities foremost is the fact that it has to pay its recruits about $2,000 a month that

Is when they actually pay on time this by comparison is around three times the national median monthly salary for military aged males the fact they can earn far more in the military than they ever could working in a factory deep in the urals provides a strong personal

Incentive to join what’s more if they die which seems very common these days Putin promises their families a $52,000 bonus three times the median annual salary for a Russian family there have already been more Russian war dead in 2 years than the United States lost in Vietnam and the Soviet Union lost in

Afghanistan combined what that means is that there have been a lot of payouts to the families of the deceased along with government subsidized mortgages pensions and other salaries and what that means is that there has been a massive influx of expendable income pumped back into the Russian economy which has more than

Compensated for negative Fallout from sanctions imposed by the Western Powers the path ahead is relatively clear for Russia it doesn’t need to print out an ungodly amount of extra cash to make it all work all it has to do is maintain its historic deficit while their oil and

Gas revenues recover and Bob’s your uncle according to one commentator Russia can afford to run at its current deficit level for a half a century until it comes close to approaching current American levels of debt that’s a startling observation today in Russia defense production is in full swing its

Civilian Industries are matching pre-war production levels and Russian unemployment is at an all-time low yet we feel we should issue a word of caution it won’t all be sunshine and rainbows for the Russian war economy moving forward Russia’s defense sector is historically inefficient in its management and profitability for example

In 2022 a Russian state-owned defense conglomerate known as rosc actually managed to make less income from the sale of weapons in military equipment in 2022 than it did in 2020 the Russian space agency is hemorrhaging cash one state-owned ship build incorporation is in the same boat pun intended experts

Believe the projected growth in Russian military spending is an attempt to keep Pace with these costs as the rubble continues its steady devaluation the cost of military equipment will only only rise similar to its shadow Fleet Russia has tried to sidestep the impact of sanctions by purchasing critical Western made components like

Semiconductors computer chips lasers and other technological equipment from unsanctioned border countries like Armenia Kazakhstan and kistan at a slightly marked up price the same thing is happening in China and turkey today the West is trying to find new ways to incentivize these countries to stop these practices but trying to control

Russia’s access to far-flung global markets is like trying to control a many-headed Hydra similar to attempting to limit oil exports using crude price cap controls If you eliminate One Market another presents itself in order to truly slow down the Russian economy a country or Coalition of countries would

Have to essentially sanction not only Russia but every country adjacent to Russia and do this with such strict measures that Russia becomes virtually sealed off from the outside world as we’ve discussed today doing this would not just impact Russia’s own ability to functionally subsist but would inject chaos into the global marketplace with

Certain countries entirely dependent on Russian business and energy exports this is simply impossible Russia has a way of surprising us however and just might find a way to implode its own economic lifelines all on its own demographically Russia like many countries possesses an aging population in terminal decline the

More fighting aged men it deprives from its labor force the harder it will be to increase industrial productivity so something it will inevitably have to do if the war escalates in any way sweeping conscription drives are already unpopular and will continue to be so as they impact the economy’s ability to

Remain afloat with spending so skewed towards the defense sphere social spending will suffer Russia’s dependence on Tech Imports to maintain its military Effectiveness means inflation will continue to creep higher and higher this will leave the Kremlin with few options abandon the war altogether and seek reproach with the West an option Putin

Seems remiss to adopt in light of the fact that it would cause a significant shock to the Russian economic system or he can simply lock the country in for the Long Haul overhauling the economy to remain on a war footing indefinitely may result in short-term Prosperity relative

To what things were like in 2022 at least yet it may also Force the economy as one expert eloquently put it into the snare of Perpetual War put in this context Putin’s decision to dig in and Deadlock the struggle in a deadly stalemate over the past year makes full

Economic sense unless the Russian economy tanks which admittedly it appears unlikely to do Putin’s popularity will remain intact yet we should all remember that we’ve seen this movie before unchecked military spending over imprecise amounts of time in economies over reliant on singular Industries H sounds an awful lot like

The cold war living conditions will eventually deteriorate critical Industries will increasingly struggle to Source the maintenance and technological iCal Parts they need brain drain caused by the loss of hundreds of thousands of fleeing Russians endemic migrant worker shortages caused by the fact that due to sanctions workers are simply unable to

Send their wages back home all this constitutes a deadly cycle as Russia runs out of Labor and thus becomes unable to supply its soldiers it could result in potentially devastating political consequences but what does Putin care he has 47 million men of military age to draw from compared to

Only 15 million in Ukraine this critical 3:1 Advantage will pay dividends in a war of attrition especially because Putin knows Ukraine also needs a 3 to1 Advantage for their ongoing offensive operations to have a chance of penetrating his military defenses and that number is generally only applicable when the aggressor enjoys some semblance

Of air power it’s now a waiting game winter will put a freeze on operational Mobility for the forceable future meanwhile the senu of Putin’s power continue to hum along but what do you think let us know in the comment section below and don’t forget to like And subscribe for more military content and

Analysis from military experts