Why Bayern Munich might finally lose the Bundesliga

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Bayern Munich have won 11 straight Bundesliga titles and have dominated German football for a generation. But this season, that all might change. This season an entirely different team are leading the way in Germany.

Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen. How has this happened? Could they hold on to their lead?

Written by Seb Stafford-Bloor. Illustrated by Marco Bevilacqua.

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#Bundesliga #BayerLeverkusen #Bayer04

Bayern Munich have won 11  straight Bundesliga titles   and have dominated German  football for a generation. They have a huge financial  advantage and, theoretically,   there’s little reason to believe that  their monopoly should be under any threat. And yet it is. At Christmas in the 2023-24,  a different team were top of the Bundesliga,  

Ironically, one often mocked for  the nature of their failures. So, how has this happened? And could  this year be the year that Bayern lose? During the winter break, Bayer Leverkusen led   the Bundesliga by four points and  are unbeaten in all competitions. Can they hold on to their  lead? It would be a first.

Leverkusen are yet to win the Bundesliga  in the competition’s history (1963). They   have not won a trophy of any sort since  1993 and are mockingly referred to as   Neverkusen on account of the many trophy  opportunities they have squandered.

But they are one of the strongest challengers  Bayern have faced since their streak of titles   began, back in 2013. In the one head-to-head  so far this season, Leverkusen and Bayern   drew 2-2 in Munich in September. Leverkusen were  arguably the better side and unlucky not to win.

In the months since, they have played the most  attractive football in Germany and, after 16   games, had the best defensive record in the  Bundesliga, conceding just 12 goals in 16 games. But where did the improvement come from? The upturn can be traced back to October  2022, when Xabi Alonso was appointed.

Alonso was one of the great midfielders  of his era. After his career finished,   he was employed as a youth coach by  Real Madrid and was in charge of Real   Sociedad’s B team for three years, but  Leverkusen was his first senior job.

The club he joined were mired in the  relegation zone upon his arrival. Leverkusen are unusual in enjoying an  exemption from the 50+1 rule on account   of their historic relationship with the  Bayer Pharmaceutical company. They are   historically the German multinational’s  work team – are nicknamed Die Werkself,  

Or factory football club – and are still a  wholly owned subsidiary of an organisation   that reported €50bn in income in 2022 and  employs over 100,000 people worldwide. In football terms, they lack Bayern Munich’s  muscularity – their transfer record is €32m,   versus Bayern’s €100m – but they  are not a pauper or underdog.

And, in addition to Alonso’s arrival, another  spur of improvement came from the transfer   market. Ahead of the 2023-24 season, they  made key additions. Alonso inherited a   team of potential. Central defenders Odilon  Kossounou (22), Piero Hincapie (21), and Edmond   Tapsoba (24), flying wing-back Jeremie Frimpong  (22), and world class no.10, Florian Wirtz (20).

Leverkusen are traditionally  considered a developer of talent,   identifying or cultivating young  players before selling them for profit. In 2020, they sold Kai Havertz to  Chelsea. In 2021, Leon Bailey left   for Aston Villa. Two years later, Moussa  Diaby followed Bailey to Villa Park.

Sales would be made. New young players  would arrive. The cycle would repeat. In 2023, Leverkusen – and Simon Rolfes,  their managing director for sport – broke   with tradition. Nigerian centre-forward Victor  Boniface joined from Union St. Gilloise. At 22,   he fitted the traditional model. But the  club also completed the free transfers  

Of Alejandro Grimaldo, then 27,  from Benfica, 30-year-old Jonas   Hoffman from Borussia Monchengladbach and  30-year-old Granit Xhaka from Arsenal. All were experienced international players. In   an interview with The Athletic’s SEB  STAFFORD-BLOOR in the summer of 2023,   Rolfes described the moves as a way of  altering the team’s dressing room chemistry.

It was necessary, too. In the semi-final  of the previous season’s Europa League,   a technically superior Leverkusen allowed  themselves to be emotionally unsettled by   Jose Mourinho’s Roma. The new signings, alongside  players like Boniface, who added another source of  

Goals, infused the team with a greater maturity  that has served them well so far this season. On the pitch, Alonso’s side  play a 3-4-2-1 formation. Kossounou and Tapsoba play either side  of German international Jonathan Tah,   and in front of goalkeeper and captain  Lukas Hradecky. Xhaka operates as a No.6,  

Usually alongside Ezequiel Palacios. Grimaldo and  Frimpong are the wing-backs and, further forward,   Wirtz and Hofmann play behind Boniface.  As the autumn of 2023 turned to winter,   Patrik Schick, who had spent much of the  past year injured, also came into the side.

The addition of Grimaldo has given the side an  expert set-piece taker, but has allowed Alonso’s   side to adopt a more secure back-four at times,  allowing Frimpong – who is a naturally attacking   player – to push much further forward, sometimes  even being the team’s most advanced player.

Xhaka has added passing quality. As has  Hofmann, albeit further forward. Boniface,   who was top scorer in the 2022-23 Europa League,  scored 10 times from his first 15 starts,   but showed that he could also receive the ball  in deeper positions and use it creatively. Collectively, with Alonso’s coaching  empowering technical players,  

It makes Leverkusen versatile and  dangerous. As data from Opta shows,   they are excellent at retaining possession  for long periods, but also at moving the ball   effectively and using it to create shooting  opportunities. Without the ball, while not   an intense presser, they have still forced more  high turnovers than any other Bundesliga team.

Conversely, Bayern have been  vulnerable. In May 2023,   on the day they clinched their last title,  it was publicly announced that CEO Oliver   Kahn and board director of sport Hasan  Salihamidzic would be leaving the club. Both have since been replaced but, despite  the summer signing of Harry Kane – a new  

Record transfer in German football – and  the addition of Kim Min-Jae – the adapted   power structures impacted the club’s  efficiency in the transfer market. The absence of holding No.6 has weakened  Thomas Tuchel’s midfield. A failed,   last-minute attempt to sign Fulham’s Joao  Palhinha in the final hours of the summer  

Transfer window captured the sense of a  club not operating quite as they should. Bayern are expected to act swiftly  in the winter market of 2024,   but Leverkusen have so far profited. Still, there are clouds on the horizon.  Leverkusen overperformed their open play  

Expected goals rating (32 from 27.17xG  for) across the first 17 games. Opponents   have underperformed their xG  against them (6 goals from 10.07). And Alonso will do without players who are  participating at the Africa Cup of Nations in   January and February, including Boniface, Tapsoba,  and Kossounou, all of whom have been vital.

Time will tell if they can hold on.