Auftakt der US-Wahl 2024: Analyse der ZDF-Korrespondenten in Iowa | auslandsjournal

Die Wahlen 2024 in den USA starten mit den Vorwahlen der Republikaner in Iowa. Dort treten Ron DeSantis und Nikki Haley gegen Donald Trump an, der als Favorit gilt. Wird er wieder gegen den 81-Jährigen Demokraten Joe Biden antreten? Wer kann die Wahl am Ende für sich entscheiden?

Vor Ort bei den Vorwahlen in Iowa diskutieren ZDF-Korrespondent Elmar Theveßen und ZDF-Korrespondentin Anna Kleiser mit der Chefredakteurin von Capital Dispatch Kathie Obradovich über die möglichen Entwicklungen bei den US-Wahlen 2024.

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By yeah I would argue that what voters are afraid of uh here in this election in particular what’s driving Republicans in Iowa is a fear of another another four years of a Democratic president ultimately uh what they want most Beyond any particular issue that is facing the

Country or facing the world is uh to win they want to make sure that they uh nominate the candidate who can beat Joe Biden in November and that that beyond anything else uh any issue that we talk about with voters secondary to wanting to win Cathy the exper is here in Iowa

Covich is Chef redur here in Iowa capital dispatch is nonprofit so cath Cathy you know actually so much about Iowa caucus Kathy of course first we have to explain the caucuses what is it yes so the Iowa caucuses are a a very old uh way for uh

Neighbors to join together and uh and make decisions for their political parties um the Iowa caucus is as a presidential nominating event event goes back to 1972 um where uh the national Democratic party and the state democratic party wanted to make the presidential nominating process more inclusive um to

Bring in more voices Beyond just the party bosses and kind of the elite uh Democrats so they devised this system where people would go in person to Precinct meetings they might be in a Schoolhouse or or a firehouse or a town hall um and and meet together and and

Take a vote on who you want to have as your presidential candidate um Iowa became first in the nation because the caucuses kick off a series of conventions there’s a there’s a um a County Convention and a district convention State Convention on up to the National Convention and uh at the time

In the 1970s it took a long time time to print all of the paperwork uh they had an old mograph machine at the Iowa Democratic party took a long time to print all the paperwork and so they realized um that they by backing up um you know to when the caucuses would have

To be to fit all of this all of these conventions in they were going to end up being first in the nation you said 1972 which was actually the day of the date back then when it was as cold as it is is today here Milwauke um here yeah so Kathy we have question marks in our eyes I mean the big question is how can that be that in a in a way like this people can decide or have so much influence on who’s going to be the candidate because we have the feeling

That whoever comes in first here um might be the candidate on the way to win the nomination but whoever is second a close second or something that can change everything in the next couple of weeks so so how is it possible that this is so powerful Iowa yeah what we like to say

About the Iowa caucuses is not that they’re first because they’re important they’re important because they’re first so you know this is the election year is very early in the year um this is the first time that real people as opposed to polls real people are going to go out

And cast a ballot now if you look at the history of the Iowa caucuses um the Iowa caucuses do not typically choose the nominee or the president you know that happens once in a while um it happened with Jimmy Carter it happened with Barack Obama um George W bush won the

Caucuses and went on to become the president you know so there’s a few instances there but it’s not necess necessarily the norm um the what Iowa does more reliably is decide who is not going to be president um and by that I mean uh we started this year with over a

Dozen candidates um there are there a half a dozen left so so this process of um you know trying to appeal to a very in this case on the Republican side very conservative segment uh of the Republican Party um it proves to be uh too much for some of these candidates um

They they might uh start with a lot of ambition and maybe some money um but they you know they realize that they’re not gaining any traction and they drop out May jump in there and I try to explain in German so umy by um govern Florida that was fascinating yesterday Cathy um

As Anna just pointed out we met yesterday when we were at the disantis event people from Florida including some state representatives who came up here to advertise for uh Ron disantis but the interesting thing is that Ron disantis who started out as a very serious candidate you know maybe the only one

Who could challenge Donald Trump for the nomination and all of a sudden he is maybe even in in place three here in Iowa how did that happen well Rhonda Santos is um he’s sort of running as uh the next generation of Donald Trump uh he I think was banking on the idea that

Voters would think Donald Trump was too old um that maybe his legal problems um would be would overcome his ability to run for president um and I I think DeSantis didn’t really realize at this stage that he would still be running against Donald Trump uh he has not criticized Donald Trump throughout this

Campaign um he’s basically been running as uh just sort of the Next Generation to carry on Donald Trump’s policies and with Donald Trump still in the race that’s not working um with voters and and so so I think that you uh you Rhonda santz

Has um he has put a lot of his uh he kind of put all of his eggs in the Iowa basket he has uh banked very very heavily on the Iowa caucuses and it’s a big question about where he goes from here he’s not doing very well in New

Hampshire um South Carolina is Nikki Haley’s home state and by then the nomination could be sewn up let’s stay on Rond zantes for a second so Kathy he was in all the counties here in Iowa and Tred to make his pitch um so what would happen if he actually ends up

Third here and might end up third as well in New Hampshire well I again you know I think that will depend on his donors you know his donors are the ones who are going to decide how long this campaign goes on how much longer they’re going to keep funding his campaign I

Will say though that Ronda santis does despite the polls that we are seeing right now have an opportunity to still come in second and the reason I say that is because um the polling for Nikki Haley shows that her report is pretty soft um in the sense that uh people are

The least enthusiastic of all the top candidates um and that they still say that their minds could be or that they could still be persuaded to vote for someone else uh both Donald Trump and Ronda sandz have much higher uh percentages of Voters whose minds are

Made up they’re going to caucus for sure uh for those other candidates so um and Al the the third thing is Ronda santz has um a much better ground organiz ation uh the Nikki Haley does at this point um lots of volunteers uh Precinct captains people who can uh C you know

They’re going to call people get help get them out to the caucuses and that you know with the cold weather that’s also really really important Nina by um I was experiencing people telling me well Nikki Haley might be the best choice because she’s basically more um electable so they’re not as enthusiastic

That’s what I experienced yeah you might you look at the the registers poll that came out um and it says that half of Nikki Haley’s supporters are Independents Or democrats they’re not Republicans and you know people that I’ve talked to including um you know folks uh just around town would tell me

That they might go they’re normally caucusing as Democrats but they might go caucus for Nikki Haley because they are afraid of Donald Trump you know back to your Fear Factor right they’re afraid of Donald Trump and they think that Nikki Haley would be a better choice uh not

That they like her really not that they would vote for her in November but uh but they are afraid of Donald Trump we have to explain this because this sounds crazy that this is the Republican caucus that is happening on this Monday and yet there could be Democrats and

Independence voting in that caucus I B Democrat so why is that possible why is it not uh close to Independence and Democrats so it’s always been possible people can go to the caucuses and change their party registration in order to participate and then change back um and

So there are there are always you know the opportunity especially for political Independents who might always vote Republican um you know that they they are political Independents for whatever reason um and they that gives them the opportunity to participate um also historically the Iowa Democrats have had uh caucuses and a presidential

Preference poll the same night as the Republicans so that keeps Democrats in their own house so to speak they go they go and caucus with the Democrats this cycle is different Democrats um will have caucuses but it’s only going to be party business it will not be a presidential preference vote and that

Pref presidential preference vote is happening as a mailin ballot this SU cycle and it the the um the results won’t even be announced until March uh the the super Tuesday as we call it so so there’s not really a contest uh that’s competing with the Republicans

And so the possibility is that there may be more Democrats and more uh left-leaning Independents who might decide to show up and and essentially vote against Donald Trump Jo Independent For Kathy we talked to young people and they said uh two things number one is the Republicans would be much better off having a younger generation as a candidate disantis or Haley because that would put the Democrats under so much pressure to get rid of an 81y old running for president

And the second thing is that they also think that this country needs that generational change their Issues so they need younger generation candidates in order to put forward their issues and both Nikki Haley and Ron santis and some of the other candidates have essentially argued that um they’re subtle about it they don’t necessarily come out and say that Donald Trump is too old to be president um but Nikki

Haley actually proposed that there be a competency test um for uh top government officials if they are over 75 years old so uh making that very much making the point that that another a younger generation needs to be leaving this country thing is though if you look at

The polls Donald Trump wins with younger voters um in the if you’re polling caucus goers Donald Trump is winning um with younger voters uh and so um you know when we talk about uh the weather for example and the enthusiasm um that’s another advantage that he has because

Younger voters are more likely to get out um in in the bad weather um than than the very old voters as a Kathy had got caucuses is for me it’s like actually I’m really surprised not surprised but it’s astonishing how old people are in the American politics system is there any

Explanation you could give to German audiences part of it I think is the power of the incumbency so uh you look at um look at Iowa um our uh our senior set senator now is the longest serving uh us Senator um he’s uh close to 90 um

And he has been serving you know for for well over 40 years um I we uh before we came up here we met our former governor of Iowa he had he served uh an incredibly long time the longest serving governor in the history of the United States okay so uh so Iowans in

Particular and I think incumbents I mean I think Americans in general they they elect somebody and then they feel comfortable with them uh they don’t like to make a change plus uh this the political system uh just it really has a lot of advantages for incomers they are

Better able to raise money um they have um you know a lot of opportunities uh to get their message out that Challengers just don’t have and so I you know I think that that has those things build into the longevity um of these um of these candidates

However Iowa does have or not Iowa the US does have a term limit for presidents they can only serve two four-year terms um Donald Trump of course uh won’t be wouldn’t be serving consecutive foure terms um but uh you know he just didn’t start running until later in life for community of

YouTube Kathy we asked our community on YouTube actually to send us some questions and they asked well talking about the age I mean uh Joe Biden is 81 years old and this user here apparently thinks thinks that he is uh mentally not capable of being president why are we

Not reporting on it in a way that he would expect us to do so because he says that is uh different than we would treat Donald Trump for example yeah I I mean I think that the the evidence is not there I think that there’s a a perception and

That conservative media feeds into that perception that somehow he is not uh competent um and yet uh you know he does release his medical reports as most presidents do um you know I I I think that uh there’s just not a lot of evidence to back up what people think uh

You know and you know what they feel like they’re observing um you you look at uh president uh Biden’s uh Speech sometimes um and he acknowledged uh some time back that he actually had a speech impediment um and so sometimes his speech isn’t as smooth um or he seems to

Lo lose his train of thought while he’s trying to pronounce a word or thinking of a different word um so I I do think that that uh has that feeds into that perception but um if you look at the media that the Republican party and and people who are conservative consume um

That narrative is very strong um but it’s just not really based on a lot of evidence so so they create this image of Joe Biden okay as ke yeah um Jo biding his phical appearance seems to be fragile so this image seems to override anything so that we encounter people who

Say well he is uh not capable mentally which apparently is not true because we know from our experience how he is on top of things uh but he will have a hard time in this election cycle I guess perceptions are very important um and a

Lot of times um you know uh people will uh choose their candidate based on kind of the vibe that they get the the emotion that the candidate makes the makes the voter feel as opposed to really anything based on intellect so um a lot of times uh you you talk about a

Candidate’s likability um and that is uh it’s basically a feeling that the voter has about a candidate and it doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with what they’re going to do in office or what their abilities are it’s just a question and you know I think one of the

Reasons Donald Trump was so successful in Iowa he started off as a celebrity people felt like they knew him um they thought that he um was was funny and entertaining um and they they liked that about him and and so when he uh first started running for president he drew

Huge audiences right up front um before anybody really knew anything about what his agenda was uh because you know they felt like they knew him already Donal trp New York food is more relatable but when we were in leyon um a few days ago uh which is one of the

Poorest counties or is in one of the poorest counties of iow in in this County I mean they elected or they voted for uh Barack Obama in 28 and 12 and then they voted for Donald Trump I mean how’s that possible that they switch yeah I mean I

I think again you know that Donald Trump um was a a more attractive candidate than uh than Hillary Clinton so uh I think that the that the voters um who switched from Barack Obama to uh to um to Donald Trump um I think that they disliked Hillary Clinton um perhaps even

More than they liked Donald Trump that that she uh was a very polarizing candidate um that uh you know you look at the idea of wanting someone new um you know we we had just had um you know back to back almost backto back uh

Bushes uh in the white house um you know now going back to the clintons um people felt like they wanted to see someone new um in the White House and so I think you know I think that Brock Brock Obama was was def definitely represented something

New um H but now you come come to 2016 it it’s Donald Trump who was who was the the new thing Obama Donald so I’m wondering Kathy Donald Trump was in office for four years he didn’t make too much of a difference for those people in those poor counties in Iowa and other

Places but now they are rooting for him again and and you wonder we have a president right now and we are reporting on this with all those investments in the economy the economy seems to be doing pretty well there are jobs created the average income is higher than it

Actually was right now um than before the pandemic and still it doesn’t trickle down to the people and there are disatisfied dissatisfied with Joe Biden yeah this is a very nationalized election um it’s be become more and more so and so uh you know the view of people

In Iowa for example um is being uh influenced by uh by the media and what they see around the country um you know we have a governor here in Iowa who is a republican just gave her condition of the state message and talked about you know what great shape the economy is in

Iowa and how low the unemployment is and we’ve got a big budget surplus so we can afford to give more tax cuts um I mean that is the message that they’re getting from their governor their Republican governor and yet they still look at the national economy and say well inflation

Is too high you know the the Biden has uh created a shambles of the economy of those two things just are inconsistent with each other um but you know again they’re being influenced by what they see on TV and those messages and apparently it’s not true because uh of

Course inflation is still up but it’s way lower than it was a year ago or two years ago yeah people don’t feel it though I mean so inflation me you know has gone down um but it’s not zero inflation is still you know it it’s much

Lower than it was but prices are still going up and when inflation goes down the prices have not gone down so people go to the grocery store they still think that um you know they’re paying too much for milk they’re paying too much for uh

The Staples or you know you go to a restaurant and the bill is much higher than it was um even before the pandemic and so so people still have that kind of pain factor that they still feel like the effects of inflation even though uh the economy as a whole has recovered

Very very well if we look at what’s going to happen this year this is just the beginning here the caucuses so there are probably a few more weeks to go until we know who is going to be the candidate in the Republican party we seem to know who who

Going to be the candidate in the Democratic party as well what is your outlook is what’s going to happen in November if Trump versus Biden is the ticket yeah it’s it’s so far away it’s hard it’s hard to predict I mean um if you look at polling today um Trump uh does better

Than Biden in polls today uh but the president the presidential race um is not uh it’s not a national election it’s a series of elections in Battlegrounds um and you know it’s it’s you know ultimately an electoral battle um so um you know Donald Trump um you know Joe

Biden um could um very well um win the uh popular vote and still lose the election or vice versa so polls don’t really tell us very much you know I think that um it will come down to uh ultimately uh what happens with the economy um what happens uh with the

Southern border um people are very concerned here about border security um and I also think that um it will come down to if it’s Trump versus Biden um people’s uh their perception of who has uh who’s healthy enough and who can you know actually be president for four years Donald is For For Yeah the newans and the Germans we have the and that’s where the word comes from which is used in the US The Angst the German angst as you call it here in the US we have that angst as well the unknown what’s going to happen in November and what’s happening or what’s

Going to happen if Donald Trump come back comes back into office what does it mean from Europe and NATO for example but also what does it mean for the American democracy because we hear so much about an authoritarian streak within the Trump team yeah and I I do

Think that there are a lot of Americans who are worried about that this country is so polarized right so you’ve got uh half the country who are fearing all of the things that you just said about Donald Trump I mean how will he U manage American relations in the world um will

He pull out of NATO um you know how is he going to handle this war in Ukraine um he of course says there wouldn’t have been a war in Ukraine if he was President well um you know I don’t I don’t know uh you can’t prove that one

Way or another that’s just one of the things that he says um you know what what will happen with you know when when it comes to the next election will will there be a next election or will Donald Trump suspend it so he can be in office

Again um I mean think all of those things uh are uh things that people who are not in favor of trump fear now there’s a whole other set of fears for people who are for Trump uh including you know are we going to be spending um

All of the money in our budget uh help you pouring money into Ukraine and uh Israel and Taiwan um when we really should be spending it um keeping people from coming over our Southern border um you know we’re afraid of crime we’re afraid uh that uh that the Democrats

Will come and take our guns away you know so all of those fears um and and because of the polarization people people are divided about which fears that they should you know that they should be acting on I have to follow up with one question do

We have to be worried about the American democracy I I think a lot of people are worried about the American democracy I mean I the the effort that went into uh overturning the results of the 2020 election up to the point of an attack on the US capital on the day that the

Election was supposed to be certified that’s very alarming um you know the the undermining of uh the election system and the the ramping up of people’s doubts that the elections are fair and impartial um all of those things including you know even our um our Republican Secretary of State here in

Iowa who is the um admin administrator of the elections in the State uh has raised concerns about people undermining um the Integrity of of Elections but using conspiracy and misinformation and disinformation so there there is a lot to be concerned about I think um you

Know I I think that there are a lot of good uh Republicans who care about uh election in integrity and understand um that uh you know that this misinformation and disinformation um will undermine uh the system so so I you know there are Republican voices uh who are out there

Saying look you know uh we have a great election system you know don’t um you know don’t be out there spreading uh you know misinformation for political reasons um but but yeah I do I do think that there there is reason to worry am

So cold and dark as it is right now IA it won’t be this way all year so the sun will come out that’s the good Message Capital dispatch thank you very much Anna