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Welcome in to the one piece folks one video One video only for me to react to in this one Mr Tom Lee is going to share his thoughts on what’s going on in the market what’s going to transpire over this next few months and I want to react

To that kind of give my opinions and perspective so I thought this was a 16-minute beast so let’s just attack this one here today and focus on this one video and one video only so appreciate everybody joining me as always thank you so much for being here

Folks I just want to get straight into this and also thank you for being subscribed and by the way if you want to follow me on IG say hello to me on IG that will be pinned comment down down there you can send me a DM I get back to

A ton of people each and every day all right guys let’s get into this and head of research welcome back it’s good to see you it’s been a while yeah great great to see you Scott now I’m I’m going to start calling you precient Tom I hope

You don’t mind because this morning at 10:23 in the morning you said possibly this is the flush bottom line possibility equities reverse into the cloth well it looks like you called it Tom what do you think about this reversal and what it means by the way so

You know just right off the bat there was fascinating I was kind of reading through the comments in the video and just so much uh you know positivity certainly around Tom Lee and just so many people you know uh like you know basically treating Tom Lee like he’s a

Genius and it’s just so funny cuz the previous year you know last year obviously 2022 he was a Public Enemy Number One and he doesn’t know anything and he’s clueless and he’s just a perable uh so just it’s fascinating in the market like how fast people how fast

People’s opinion of somebody can change for the better or for the worse it’s it happens quick well I I think if we think about the data for the past week the stagflation story that gained a lot of prominence in the last 10 weeks I think has diminished

A lot um because the jobs report showed good jobs but soft on wages we’re making progress on the UAW strike and then of course as you know oils come off that boil and these are all pointing to an expansion that’s not suffering from an acceleration of

Inflation uh so I think it really helps the idea that as you said maybe the flesh happened and and we can be strong into your end do you really think that this is that moment that that turn is is going to begin to happen Tom um part of the tacnical view comes

From Mark Newton but I think it’s it was going to be either today or early next week because we had that intraday reading of the put call Reach 1.97 only 20 times the last 30 years it’s so rare but it is almost always signaled an imminent bottom and then

Today as you point out we had a what he just said right there is so important for you guys um you know especially if you’re ever trying to figure out like uh when you’re going through a rough market like are we near a bottom or something

Like that pay attention to put to call ratio pay attention to put to call ratio when way too many people start buying puts you’re it’s almost guaranteed you’re within days literally days not weeks not months not years within days of bottoming the market at least for a short-term perspective like for the next

You know month or so um consistently man when everybody starts buying put options holy smokes as a time of switch the time to buy put options if you want to get some put options was certainly in the summertime right you know get some put options in July August on the market if

You needed protection uh you know getting put options last week or something like that you’re just so late to the game but man it’s just funny you know everybody piles in uh usually at the at the worst times possible JS number a pretty big sell off that is

Reversing in the face of people still saying nothing’s gotten better so I do think this sellers are exhausted and there’s a lot of Firepower in the sidelines and and if a few things go right I think we get a a big rally I know but the the one thing that’s not

Really getting better and I don’t want to ignore it rates are still high right so we’re at 4 488 earlier today on the 10 years so we’re at 477 so we’ve come off as you said the boil but we’ve still got a pot that’s really uh simmering

Rapidly that’s right I I mean these are very tight finan Cal conditions it’s probably not a long-term killer if we were at five for years cuz we know 5% is the average for 10 the 10 year for last 90 years but at the moment that change has been very

Restrictive um if I was to be half full on this we know this also means the FED has less work to do which means fewer hikes so in some ways as long as a market can absorb this change and it’s very restrictive I mean it it’s uncomfortable um I think that’s depit

More importantly as Walter deer pointed out you know when you have a parabolic rise in rates it’s not going to take the escalator back down if it does peak it’s going to be a sharp reversal and then of course that’s supportive for stocks yeah you think the fed’s done do you think

Mary daily was a pretty big tell yesterday and thinking that San Francisco fed president of course thinking that the move that we’ve seen in interest rates has caused Financial conditions to tighten substantially in her mind equal to at least one hike in rate and that now that is the prevailing

Thought within the room that credit conditions have tightened enough were restrictive as you said we’re done yes I think the FED feels that they you know since September 20th I think it was clear the market kind of got this new message well higher for longer the

Markets pric it in I don’t know if the FED has to keep jawboning it and even threaten further hikes if it’s gotten to the place it wants to be and as as you’re saying when you when you have a Fed remember saying it’s a hike another

Hike on top of that means that we we’re extra worried how about valuations uh before we get into valuations here okay I think a huge component of you know let’s just call it he was speaking about Celler exhaustion um you know what’s kind of another bull thesis for the market in

The shorter term okay I’ll put it to you like this very simply and I think this is massive we are about to what we are about to go into earning season okay I I don’t know how many people feel comfortable continue to load up on short positions and put options knowing that

We’re about to go in earning season the bottom line is Bank earnings start end of this upcoming week right and then we get the onslaught of earnings for that next four or five weeks there just crazy amount of earnings do you really want to go into earning season super short uh

The market you know a ton of puts I think earnings are going to be just fine I think earnings are going to be just fine I don’t think we’re going to have many disastrous reports I think we’re going to have a lot of encouraging words from companies um especially in regards

To uh margins potentially improving uh less inflationary pressure right and kind of more balanced business approach and then you got big Tech that we should see very strong earnings from meta the the year-over-year growth in EPF should be outstanding for meta for Amazon should be off the charts in terms of uh

Their year-over-year net income growth Nvidia same exact thing so and these remember these are many of the most powerful stocks in the entire stock market and we’re going to set up for likely very good earnings for these companies and so it’s just it’s a tougher position to you know continue to

Want to short and buy puts into an earning season cuz when you’re not in earning season the market can run with all this anxiety and fear about this and that and this oh my gosh rates are going up oh my gosh the fed’s going to do what

Oh my gosh the oil price uh you know it gets focused on everything that you know is important stuff but what is what actually drive the market over the long term what has it always been and always will be it’s one thing earnings earnings is the only reason that the stock market

Is the value it is today okay there’s no other reason for that it is earnings it always comes back to earnings it always has and it always well if company earnings are trash the stock market’s trash if company earnings are great stock market’s great okay and over the

Short term we can get worried about all this stuff but you just got to understand the focus is about to go to earnings and so that’s not as scary especially when you know earnings are likely going to be pretty good and especially for many of the most powerful

Stocks so this is just some food for thought there right Apple are Apple earnings going to be horrible I don’t know about that and also you know Tim Cook’s always got a way to you know make it sound pretty good you comfortable where they are and and and where you

Know just simply relative to rates being high and you know you still believe the economy to some degree is is going to slow it’s just hanging in so incredibly resilient uh it’s it’s stunning I don’t know what else to say uh yes I I mean I know intuitively

Investors think PE has to come down because interest rates have gone up but history shows when when the ten year is between 3 and a half and 52% the PE PE is average close to 20 times part of it is something that Sheila bear had written about you know

It it produces Capital discipline and and that allows companies to have durable earnings which means PE should be higher but also we’re in an environment where nominal growth is higher which means I I also think we’re in an EPS surprise environment that’s why PE should go up it’s really 16 times

Actually less than that X Fang I think it if it goes up four four turns that’s a huge up upside in equities okay I’m glad you went to earnings cuz I wanted to get there anyway um so you don’t think that estimates which have crept up incrementally positive this quarter a

Little bit more next and then more substantially obviously as we get into to 2024 you don’t think those are you know over their skis a little bit uh I mean earnings always are have some risk because of of optimism of analysts so 70% of the times earnings

Revisions are down but the revisions to Q3 earnings are more consistent with the turn in the cycle and we have to remember the headline earnings are still down year year because of energy and basic materials without those it’s close to 7% earnings growth in third quarter I

Mean that’s a that’s a really nice you know companies are doing well I think the greed flation is going to hurt and you of course we have some volatility yeah the best part is we’re about to go into the next two quarters specifically are going to be the strengthening in a

Major way 3 Q numbers uh when those come out and then four Q numbers you know this quarter that’s about to be reported this isn’t even the really the super exciting part it’s actually when you get three Q numbers in four Q numbers that I

Think things are going to be um you know much more interesting right but I think the well picture is demand is holding up and EXC excuse me Q4 and q1 I think that’s when you’re really going to see some uh real acceleration Q3 should be pretty respectable as well um no doubt

About that Q3 should be very respectable I just think there’s uh more excitement in Q4 and into q1 costs are slowing that that should help be supportive of earnings actually yeah I mean you said you know xfang so let’s drill down on that a little bit more what are we

Talking 15 times for for X clear cuz I know that was conf confusing we’re about to get the third quarter earnings okay so all these companies that are about to report are about to report third quarter earnings unless they have a weird fiscal year or something like that but for the

Most part the majority of these companies that are about to report are going to report the third quarter earning basically the 490 whatever stocks within the S&P 500 versus the mega caps so if you think we’re going to hang in there and from an economic standpoint and you think the FED is done

And you think rates are not going to really you know go much higher from here do I want to start looking at xfang or do I want to just dance with the stocks that got me here to begin with uh Scott I I don’t want to

Sound like I’m saying both but when I think about how rrisk like when institutions want to add risk in fourth quarter they’re going to buy what’s Liquid and what’s work so I think that’s why Fang should lead but the reason the rest of the comp you know the rest of

The S&P is attractive is that that you have a level set of 7% earnings yield or maybe six but with earnings growth double digits the total return profile of equities here trounces what you can earn on a tenure and I don’t think investors are convinced of that today

But a year from now they will be and that’s why the S&P could you know have more than double digit gains over the next 12 months I know but you you make a good argument though even as you argue my perspective is I think big you know

If you’re asking me like what do I think does better into year end and what do I think better does better likely in 2024 in my personal opinion I think big Tech does better um for the remainder of this year it’s a lot of the you know people

Playing the same story over and over again when it comes to this year I I have a very different view of next year I do believe next year will be led by a lot of these dividend stocks and value stocks next year regardless if we go up

In the market or down in the market because there’s certainly you know two possibilities in regards to that right regardless of Market I believe divs and values lead uh next year that’s my personal belief um we’ll see if it happens obviously but just kind of looking at what’s going on with

Valuations looking at you know if things continue to strengthen for a lot of the big techs and looking at you know obviously the continued selling pressure on those divs and values and the valuations those stocks are down to the valuations that a lot of these big techs

Are starting to get to especially if you were talking that they have another you know 10% up move from here yeah that I I feel pretty comfortable feeling the divs and values are more the play next year versus big tech stocks relative to bonds others would say look how cheap bonds

Have gotten as rates have gone up so there’s still considerable competition in a really uncertain environment whether it’s you know cash equivalents or treasuries themselves that still offer a safer let’s just use that word safer alternative yes um I mean that I think it’s correct for people to to have that

View how many additional make that decision in the next 12 months I think is what matters we already have seen trillions flee out of risk assets the stock market has been starved of retail and institutional Equity flows the movements have all been just Prime brokerage leverage BuyBacks will

Continue I think on the margin if inflation is diminishing next year and people think the FED is done or might cut that’s good because bonds could rally but as we know I mean if that happens we know PE is going to go up a lot so stocks will rally even more let’s

Bring in CNBC contributor Bren Talkington of requisite Capital Tom she’s going to join the conversation so Bren I believe you heard everything that Tom had to say do you agree well I think that going back to like the technicals let’s just go back there I think that we started the week with so

Whenever somebody uh basically starts out by saying well and they don’t say like well I do agree with a lot of what they say or I I do agree usually they disagree it’s only about 15 stocks above their their 50-day moving average when it gets below 20% that’s really bullish from a short-term

Bottom that that was right on top of the S&P almost getting to 4,200 so I think we were in this really oversold conditions and I think you know great job on Tom calling for a midday rally and so I think we can definitely Rally from here don’t forget Monday the bond

Market’s closed so this party can continue cuz there’s nothing to stop it because really this has been a rate driven market so I think that’s going to help I do think though over the next few months outside of season it which is a real thing right I would never discount

It I think over the next 6 months though we’re going to be much more range-bound between this you let’s say 4,200 to like 45 4600 cuz I still think there are so many cross currents I think on the early whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa hold

Your flip and flap jacket hores for just a moment she said over the next 6 months we’re going to be range bound 4200 to 45 4600 wait just a moment uh B phasically you’re saying you’re very bullish on this next 6 months cuz let’s be honest

The S&P 500 is 4,300 today so you’re saying there’s very limited downside this next 6 months for the S&P 500 but you know if you talk about S&P especially 4600 that’s quite a bit of upside from here folks you’re talking about you know those big tech stocks we

Were talking about you know if we go to 4600 on this S&P almost all those big techs are going to be at new all-time highs you’re talking about Nvidia pushing 600 you’re talking about meta pushing 400 you’re talking about Amazon pushing probably 160 170 you’re talking about AMD pushing

140 150 if not higher than that you’re talking about Apple pushing over 200 you’re talking about Mr Softy woo maybe approaching 400 I don’t know so so all I’m saying is like yeah if we go 4600 in the next 6 months in Sp 500 I don’t call

That range bound I call that damn that’s going to be some money made there though if you look at Goldman Sachs I think C does good research technology is where you’re going to get all of the earnings growth next year so they’re looking for 10% earnings growth

You know year over year from 23 to 24 and so you’re we’re going to have to get that because those stocks are more rich and so I am not in the consensus that I think we’re going to have this 12% earnings growth and so when I break down

The names I do think you still want to own technology but within technology so let me be very clear what you just said there where you’re going to get the earnings growth in technology that might be for the overall Market but let me be very clear I believe you’re going to see

A lot of these dividend value stocks have actually much more incredible earnings performance in terms of the rates of growth in 2024 versus a big Tech because let’s not forget big Tech was faster to adjust to the new environment of higher interest rates of the consumer all those sorts of things

Than uh let’s call a lot of the dividend value stocks were Le the dividend value stocks have been putting in restructuring plans this year and over the past quarter or two right and all these cost savings initiatives and all these sorts of things right prioritizing you know how much they actually want to

Hire versus not hire all that’s been happening really this year and so those companies are kind of going through their messy year like this year like big Tech did last year so I’m not saying big Tech’s going to necessarily have a bad year next year it’s just you’re going to

See I’m telling you a lot of these dividend and value stocks go up 30 40 50 some much more than that next year as long as the market is just decent and outside a super big market crash you’re going to see some incredible performance from some of those stocks that are

Sleepy stocks cuz all this work they’ve been doing behind the scenes is going to come to fruition next year and it’s going to start paying off and paying dividends uh no pun intended in regards to that right so big Tech just got out in front of everybody um you know big

Tech’s always going to be the smartest ones in the room so they’re always going to make their adjustments uh faster and before the rest of the the businesses and companies uh make their adjustments right that’s why that’s why they’re trillion dollar market caps instead of billion dollar market caps right have to

Be you know somewhat judicious because while you know if you look right now Scott you know Microsoft and Apple’s charts look terrible their revenue and earnings growth haven’t been as good as let’s say a Google and Microsoft I mean a Google a Google and meta whose charts

Look really strong and continue to gain momentum so it’ll be interesting interesting to see if we start getting some dispersion of those Mega cap names especially as earnings come out next quarter we’ll we’ll we we’ll see but I think that’s a a pretty decent probability some dispersion of the mega

Caps starts to to play out I feel like Tom that’s a long way of saying that you know I’m not Bren I’m not necessarily as optimistic as you are Tom that earnings are going to reach the level that some like Goldman and others suggest that they might now they might in in mega

Caps that jury is still out but certainly not elsewhere so Tom how do you respond to that uh well I mean I I think there is a a pretty long list of worries out there uh cuz you know if I would to add to brin’s concerns I would add China and

Europe and the war and the escalation of the Ukraine war but and now the new conflict we got in our hands holy smokers there’s never any Jokers there’s always stuff coming out of nowhere folks always environment which has been incredibly challenging for companies they’re able to produce 7% earnings

Growth now in the face of the FED relentlessly raising rates but in the next 12 months they’re taking their foot off that oil I think might have made a local top wage pressures went from you know nearly 6% on their way to 3 and A2 and a 10-year environment like this

With nominal GDP does point to very good earnings growth historically and the pmis have convincingly bottomed you know the ism was stuck below 46 for several months now back to 49 uh so to me it’s it’s pointing to an economic momentum that’s that’s materially improving so I think that

Rate of change is what’s going to compel stocks to get PE expansion Tom what do you make of you know weakness that we’ve seen in utilities and Staples and transports and and things like that are they any bit attractive I know that all of these other sectors you know the the

Lights on the Marquee they’re they’re the ones that are there I get it but sometimes you see the best opportunities where the greatest amount of Carnage lies with in the market utilities Staples things like that are they attractive to you or not uh yeah utilities look for the for someone who’s

Really great with timing utilities risk adjusted probably are huge opportunities I mean I bet you it’s going to follow TLT right TLT at some point is going to make a a pretty tremendous upside move if Mark Newton’s right and you know the tenure goes back to towards 4% next year

And on transports It’s Tricky cuz you got to pay attention to what’s happen happening there but there are a lot of interplay Dynamics uh that are you know you know what worries me in regards to this whole situation folks I got to be honest okay cuz the TLT does look like

It’s a freaking firecracker getting ready to take off okay but the thing that worries me and this is a huge concern for me is everybody’s freaking talking about TLT everybody’s talking about it everybody’s thinking it’s about to be the play I give worried when when like everybody’s talking about

Everybody’s looking at this thing everybody’s keeping an eye on TLT I don’t know man that that worries me and that almost makes me say there’s got to be something else maybe maybe maybe just maybe TLT is not coming back anytime soon I don’t know man like that that’s something that

Actually concerns me syncratic and not necessarily simple macro but and then Staples I mean it’s tough cuz you know that’s a greed flation sector and and now it’s on the margin some strange stories about you know calorie consumption could be declining I mean it’s tough I you know I I think I’d

Rather own technology stocks over Staples because at least technology stocks you don’t have to worry about calories yeah I mean I mean I I don’t know that you’d find too many people fighting you on the idea of owning technology stocks over Staples so I don’t know if that’s necessarily a fair

Fight but brenn how would you address those two sectors or or just simply other areas of the market that might work outside of big Tech so I think going back to utilities and Staples you know we were looking if you look at the debt to the net debt to

Equity of every sector in the S&P which three sectors have the highest debt to equity ratios utilities real estate and Staples and so I think that those three areas and so we’re talking about two of them are just much more susceptible to the D of the D and the E

Right a rate Rises so I think this is unique time typically later stage in the economic cycle those would be doing well we have a whole new playbook I think that people can count on large cap technology to know what you’re going to get you might not get

Great Revenue growth but you’re going to get good earnings because they’re all buying back their shares I think from an allocation perspective what what what my concerns are is that I agree with Tom that the economy is probably going to stay really strong but for the wrong reasons because it’s government L

Because don’t forget we had the you know 1.9 trillion American Rescue act and then three other ones underneath them those dollars Scott need to be spent there’s billions and billions of dollars that need to be spent by 2025 and so you’re going to continue to see municipalities doing very very large

Infrastructure plans and so bottom line that what does that mean that’s good for the economy but what else is that it’s inflationary and so I just think we’re in times where the government is spending like where they’re trying to get out of recession and they’re doing this pre-recession and to me that ends

Up causing just the higher probability that recession stays stickier because of government induced programs into the US and so to me that puts somewhat of a ceiling on rates as well as markets because we’re going to continue to be having this inflationary conversation we’re not getting to 2% anytime soon well we seem

To okay you had me up till that I don’t know about the whole we’re not getting to 2% anytime soon I don’t know about that March there I think you’d probably disagree uh yes I mean to the extent that I I don’t think it’s a fatea complete that inflation is going to be

Accelerating or sticky um I mean as we know the the only sticky part of core inflation right now is is shelter and housing is going to get walloped as mortgage rates stay here at 8 so to an extent this this Rising rates is accomplishing what the FED wants to see

Which is kind of put is ceiling on on home prices for now and that’s going to really restrict CPI I mean 40% of core CPI is is basically housing related anyways Auto that’s makes it close to 57% so as long as cars and housing aren’t accelerating inflation is is on a

Glide path lower Tom what’s your target for the end of the year for the S&P you you still have one correct yes uh Scott I think we’re going to Rally double digits so I think we’re going to get over 4,800 by year end I mean a lot has

To go right and I’ll tell you there’s a lot of damage in the last few weeks so you know it may not get to 48 but I think directionally is the correct that I think oh my gosh man said 4800 by year end you’ll be flipping my

Flub jaacks we’re at 4,300 folks oh my I mean jeez I’m not going to hold my breath on that one but could you imagine the move talk about making some Mone Wow have a a very strong reflexive recovery because interest rates I was thinking he was going to say

Like 4650 uh by year end which is still a huge upside um but 4800 what nearing an end of a parabolic rise wow well we’ll see for sure and we’ll talk even sky was like wow okay okay that’s quite a number there oh my gosh okay folks I

Appreciate you joining me as always thank you so much for being here thank you for being subscribed to the channel hope you enjoyed today’s video also if you want to say hello to me say hello to me on IG my Instagram will be the pinned comment down there you can follow me I’m

Always posting a lot of Instagram stories on there as well much love and have a great day