That’s It For Trek Bikes? Or Other Bicycle Brands? The State of the Cycling Industry and Local Shops

Is this it for Trek? Yes, when you are looking at ditching the IBD (Independent Bike Dealers)and going direct.
Looking at 2023 industry and what 2024 will look like (It’s Not Good):

As The Wheel Turns, So Do The Days of Our Rides. This series is my reflection on current events in the industry and consumer perspective. With my 30 years in the business, I try to give a better understanding and some added context to today’s topics. Let’s have a look.

Mentioned in Video:
Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news
Bicycle Blue Book: https://www.bicyclebluebook.com/

Is this it for Trek? Yes, when you are looking at ditching the IBD and going direct.
Looking at 2023 industry and what 2024 will look like (It’s Not Good):
What does 2023 look like:
✅ Bike Companies – Out of Business, Direct to Consumers (Canon, Trek, Specialized, Giant, Pon Holdings)
✅ Bike shops – Foot Traffic, Sales Down, Margin Down
✅ Supply Chain – QBP, JB, Sram, Shimano
✅ Prices – Dropping to pre-pandemic
✅ Economics – Less money to spend and uncertain future

While the future looks promising, 2023 for the cycling industry was a year of mixed signals.

What does 2024 look like:
✅ Bike Companies – Building Less and Direct to Cumsumers (Canon is up, Will go to DTC and Cut out new/old IBD) Fort Collins effect.
✅ Bike shops – More Service, Niche Market, Custom Builds, Used Bikes
✅ Supply Chain – Just like Wiggle/Chain Reactions, someone will go under. Investors Pulling Out or close down locations
✅ Prices – Dropping to pre-pandemic: 5 years of inventory will hurt the small shops
✅ Economics – Will be the same and less to go around, fear of futures

Predicting the future is always tricky, but the 2024 outlook for the cycling industry appears promising with both strong growth potential and some challenges to navigate.

What to look for:
✅ The good news is your local shop or used market will show the change first
✅ Sales, Sales, and Sales
✅ Local Shops will cut prices on products and services.

Trek Bikes?
✅ More aggressive service promotions and market push
✅ Cut out more IBD and move into more markets
✅ Close locations that are not performing well
✅ If you carry Trek, Specialized, Pon Holdings, Giant. You need to divorce those brands and only do limited parenting time.

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#bike #bicycle #sports

When you look at stickers that go on bike frames no this is not about stickers but the actual branding of these bike shops over the years some of come and go and a good portion of these bad boys used to be truck dealers if they’re still even around yeah that’s a good

Question where are they today and what has Tre done to the market as we speak after this welcome to no guy bicycle hang with the guy this is as the wheel turns so to Days of our rides series I will be covering topics of the industry as well as consumer

Views with my 30 years experience if you like these videos please like And subscribe welcome back to Anno guy bicycles this is as the wheel turns so do the days of our rides yes this is redo from last week’s live train rack yeah I don’t have to

Tell you if you saw it sounds horrible out sideways which is industry as well into bad sound and uh anyway and I have more and there’s more and there’s more always there’s more more but I have some additional insights to what we’re talking about is this it for Trek this

Is it for Tre dealers that independent I would pretty much bet the dollar to Donuts that they are really screaming mad rage red right now and not Tre Red Rage red let’s go over a few of these whoa if you thought 2023 was bad 2024 could be equally if not worth worse

Yeah I’m not a very big fan of Doom and Gloom and shock value for the most part most of my content is just fixing stuff for me this is kind of something that if you don’t talk about it it’s still going to happen and you still probably need to

Talk about it well there’s a few things that Trek has affected the market well and specialize in a couple other brands too over the last 5 to 10 years and probably not in a very positive way if you’re an impendent bike dealer in a trick dealer on top of that you are

Probably in the search of different lines different way or just out in general either selling to them or closing our doors reason being the cycling industry is taking a big I would say a bad U jurn straight down to the gutterville reason being well as by independed bike shop they’re

Struggling even before covid hit and this Insurgent of brand new life to cycling was awesome and now we’re in the massive hangover which is going to take several years to dig out of that in itself is pretty horrible looking at 2023 now bu companies really did a huge

Shift well a lot of them went to direct a consumer specialized Kona following the lines of yeah you guessed it Canyon and they found profitability there it’s basically a a ditch effort to ditch their dealers to bring more Sal to the bottom line well in looking at Tre

They’re got to Consumer Direct in the sense of locations they have a whole bunch of stores aggressively attacking the market there as within service which really hurts the locals independent bike shops and in addition to they have their used Market Red Barn thing which I don’t think is all that

Great it’s kind of like a soft roll out if you would ask me the prices are way too high they’re really kind of competing against the pros closet and they’re really not you know they did launch it and then went um anyway looking at the corporations in that

Aspect they have done some big shifts basically desperate moves and undercounting prices that goes to you know your supply chain overbought overpriced now they’re cutting prices to be what they’re supposed to be in 19 and earlier and then they’re actually going a bit lower than that which is definitely hurting

Their dealers because the dealers paid the higher price and they’re they’re stuck with the damn product sorry there’s one of those situations that the bike industry truck specialized giant Pond all you guys are really are hurting independent D bike dealers and they are on razor thin margins now even worse so

Than before so yeah you talk about the pricing you talk about the economics you talk about all those things 2023 just just blue going into 2024 talking to some of the Big Wigs out there people that have been in the industry this is a big eye opener for me let me tell you

Why I worked for a company called retail toolkit which used to be called wheel toolkit which is actually owned by Will and sprocket up in Wisconsin they had nine locations and they had a software program that helped managed inventory that’s how I got into software as kind

Of like a success manager inventory I don’t know expertise person I don’t know you can give me a title but there’s no titling going to label me damn it any who this particular guy uh n he is the son of Will and sprocket their father passed away him and his two

Sisters run the Willam sprocket stores in Wisconsin Madison I think no no that’s trre um Happy Days where was Happy Days at Happy Days Happy Days anyway Milwaukee got it and they have a couple in Chicago if they still have those but they have 11 locations and no is a smart

Guy I mean he’s the one that came up with the program implemented and all these other people is also part of what they call the P2 group in cycling and a P2 group is actually comprised of these big hitter multilocation uh owners which Lee cycl

Is a company I work for RG suski he was the one as part of that and that implemented this program which I got into it blah blah BL blah ask for today wat saw an article of null saying something about divulging his numbers for 2023 and he’s looking at a

Shortcoming of sales obviously were down and also margin something like 16% uh decrease um in sales and 23 or something per of decrease in margin well that’s a a double hit that’s like basically a one-w punch and you’re waiting for the third one to knock you out and he is basically saying it’s

Going to be more of the same for 2024 I give this guy quite a bit of weight he’s known in the industry he knows the ins and outs iny he talks to all these individuals Across the Nation is also a very big Advocate has gone to

DC and advocate for cycling and so forth this guy’s been in the mix and we use deul his numbers and say in 2024 is going to be about the same it’s probably going to be about the same granted hopefully there’s some Silver Linings to this craziness but right now it’s really

Hard to see a lot of it because 2024 when you say more of the same Tre is still going to be very aggressively opening up stores and undercutting a lot of people’s service labor dollars taken away from the local bike shops because yeah 24-hour service that’s kind of a good

Dangling carrot but quite honestly I’ll get to that in a second uh and second they have a suspension service that they take the bike apart send your shocks to their own location seven of them Across the Nation to be serviced and put back together and sent

Back to their shop you got the 24-hour service the service and also a demo bike to borrow if you’re doing the shock service that kind of thing so they really went aggressive with the service department good for them they saw on the te Lees that they’re going to need to do

Something to pump the dollars getting into their stores well was that done is done it in for the rest of the dealers that are independent or the other trck dealers in the market because you know they’re trying to do the 24-hour service but it’s not going

To work as good because they don’t have the dollars to support the staff that’s what it comes down to so the independent bike dealers taking the shorts basically because this aggressive mood as a customer you can go yeah I can get my bike back in like in a day

Awesome partner the option there is more more you say push the more button push it push it I dare you to push it once you push that button you get more details about the video you’re watching in addition to all the tools that I use in the shop as well as suggestion for

Improving your ride in addition to to help me provide advocacy in the cycling Community also links to other social media accounts as well as my website to find the products I actually sell and other insights in the industry other videos linked below extend your cycling experience here on YouTube YouTube and

Now back to your original programming after this buyer beware absolutely beware reason being I’ve been in shops I’ve worked in shops and I’ve managed shops and service departments when you try to do those 24 to 40 hour service turnaround you basically get junk tuneups I’m just

Going to say it they just go through them as fast as they can the service Riders try to take as much money from you as possible from new tires new Chains new this other if it’s something that’s older they’re going to like oh you don’t want this you they’re going to

Try to Pawn off you to buy a newer bike or use that as an excuse that we’re not going to do your 24-hour service because it’s it’s too old yeah it does happen and it’s still happen to Independent bike shops too with that kind of elitism type perspective that’s all going to

Change good news whoever survives is going to be basically giving customer service and which I seen recently customer friendliness what is customer friendliness is basically you’re treating customers like family like we used to back in the 90s because every customer count and independent bike dealer is going to have to do that to

Get even closely to compete with these big box chain stores now Trek and specialize yeah you’ve gotten into the realm of big box you hit more than 100 stores nationwide sorry not sorry but going back to you know 2023 some highlights you know ebike cells they’re still pretty strong you know newer Innovations

Coming out like new tech they’re rolling out for a ditch expert to try to Boer sales that kind of thing the cycle communities are there and actually are getting bigger and sustaining because of Co that’s pushed a lot of people into this new realm of cycling hey welcome

And please stay because we really need you for sure but the lows you know we the supply chain too much stuff price gouging everybody’s racing to the bottom you got all those different things and you know you got the global issues like Wars overseas Ukraine Israel all those things are really

Affecting I would say everything within the cycling or any Outdoor sporting type Goods I mean it’s just rough so looking at 2024 more of the same aggressiveness for the big Brands the bike shops okay this is really where it comes down to Brass taxes I mean it’s just one of those

Things that listening to a couple of the you know shops in YouTube realm they’ve actually devoloped some of their numbers and it’s it’s not pretty when you’re looking at they had really good success in 2020 and 2021 but 2022 and 2023 their margins on bikes have dropped

Down to down towards 16% okay think about 16% on a bike okay they’re UPF fronting majority of those cost and they also have to pay for shipping to get to their stores if they’re not big enough to do the free shipping if after 25 40

Or 50 that’s even if it’s a thing now anymore of getting free free because that’s what we would shoot for back in the day you know you know you’re like okay I got to bump my numbers up to enough to get free freight so you basically get forc fed to eat more bikes

Well they buy these bikes and then also they’re heavily discounted by the brand that they’re selling and they’re also selling Direct on some of those Brands and then you’re just like like double Dinger and and you’re talking about 16% that’s that’s even on 16% on a

$5,000 bike is not enough to pay the employee to unbox it to ship it to your store to pay for the insurance the lights and overhead and the salesperson to sell it then you have a follow-up service on top of that that 16% is still in the red you’re negative you’re not

Making any money um and those is yeah I sold a a $44,000 bike 16% margin you might as well not to buy that bike in the first place because it’s just that way I know a lot of people out there a lot of negativity like oh good for them

To go under and that kind of thing well I’m sorry I’m from a mom Pop shop and been in this industry for over 30 years and I still feel there’s still shops out there clawing and doing all the right things and this is something that you need to kind of see in

Perspective when you walk into those independent bike dealers and you look at those sales prices and you’re thinking to yourself oh they can go lower they can’t um what you’re actually paying into is for the experience do you have that favorite restaurant you go to and regardless of the price you just

Like going there because the service level is just they know you by name and the food is awesome and that kind of thing that’s what you’re looking for for your bike shop for yourself so one thing you can count on an economy is probably going to increase to get a little bit

Better supply chain issues going to be resolved the product is kind of flatten out yes as a consumer this is a great time to buy because prices are so low and they’re racing to the bottom but on the flip side of it most of these Bike Shops and trk and specialized are going

To come underneath this and unfortunately there’s going to be a lot less bike shops around being eaten up by either Tru purchasing them or putting them down putting them out there they’re competitive they’re very aggressive even though they’re not being aggressive they’re passive aggressive so when you’re looking at the 2024 with the

Increases of even if they’re subtly moving that direction still going to be really hard for a lot of these bike shops let’s take me as a sample you’re looking at me doing inventory yeah well that’s why it’s such a mess apologize but that’s

What I got to do what I to do any who um for me on a smaller scale yeah I’m probably a year to two years out of if I have a decent year or two I’ll dig out of the hole that I’m in that’s pretty that’s pretty significant because I’m pretty micro

When you 10 times 100 times full that when you have a building employees and all that other stuff it’s going to take them if they’re willing to take on the challenge it’s going to take him the three to five years of decent year business to even recover from what’s happened in the last

Two years that’s pretty rough think about it for a second so yeah let’s look B we got 23 sucky year 24 could be sucky what’s truck doing about this not doing anything for the independent bike dealers I can guarantee you that even whatever their smoking mirrors are

Trying to do for the last I guess two decades now to the actual dealers it really they’re in it for themselves because they got to be hurting as just as much as everybody else uh yeah they may have had a little bit more money going into this but eventually money

Disappears when you kept on having negative numbers and I’ve walked into a lot of stores lately it’s crickets nothing’s moving out the door nothing close to sustaining the overhead and paying for the lights and everything else not as well as the product that’s supposed to be paid for coming in from

Overseas so when you’re looking at the effect of Trek over the years we can go back in time Trek started in the late 70s I think 7 6 or 77 somewhere around there out of a barn building some custom steel frames I just got one of those saw

In the picture yeah kind of cool you know you know it came from from a small town in America it’s you know I feel like Ru Springsteen at this moment just want to bust out and song but not really because I just want to end up crying

Because it’ll turn out to be a country song anywh who they turned into a bigger company and started selling and competing against Schwin and then they had a major competitor specialized grew and then through the 90s they had independent bike dealers and they bought a whole bunch of Brands like lean kleene

Bond Trager and them got really big and then in the early 2000s this is really a fast forward story they made their independent bike dealers either be Trek or specialized force that care down their throat so from The Branding of bike shops turned into the shop brand of tre or

Specialized can you see where I’m going here now since they’re buying shops and going customer direct the main two their left is Schwin is owned by Pon and in Span Walmarts now forget them but Tre and specialize no longer with the brands that the independent bike dealers have

Built up over the years are now taking a big old dump on the independent bike dealers that they have today and whoever’s still left reason being is they’re in it for themselves and what’s happening to the independent bike dealers is they have to compete instead of being Trek like

You’ve seen some of the stickers on there they’re Trek like Trek San Diego which they’re also bought by Trek now but they’re no longer Trek San Diego but if you’re a store that just had truck on the front now you got to figure out what

The hell to do because you now got to re break out and go back to your Niche that was in the 90s guess what that Niche is no longer there it’s transformed to something else you got the internet and that destroyed the world no just not n on that but it’s

Actually changed the landscape of everything so look at me fast forward 20 years later 30 years later I got a garage shop I don’t dare get a building or overhead that’s insane talk to me I’m staying small I’m doing my repairs I’m refurbishing bikes those are my successes those kinds of things bringing

The warm hug try trying to be educational bring videos like this to the YouTube world as well as you know kind of like my Niche is this old bike kind of deal that a lot of you guys really enjoy watching so those particular bike shops are going to

Have to find their niche in their markets again because they can’t be cookie cut or Kool-Aid drinkers just not going to happen so what they have to do is buying their Niche again that’s hard to build basically they’ve gone back 10 steps and basically they probably better

Off just closing the doors and opening a new shop somewhere else because you basically are at SC Ground Zero starting off again at the beginning so yeah Trek has really done it to us to the bike industry yeah they may have some cool products and so forth

Um but they have not really done any favors to Independent bike dealers specialized as Fallen suit they have some good brands strong I not Brands strong product and some you know cool fancy flashy stuff that’s coming out and talking locally here there’s a couple specialized stores or corporate three of

Them then there’s a couple stores that carry specialized I talk to them they’re beating them by customer service but they’re definitely not going to beat them by having the mix of product available because those newer products and heavier product volumes are going to go straight to the corporate stores not

To the independent bike dealers I can tell you that even though they may say it doesn’t it does definitely been proven over co uh so when you’re looking in that particular scenario they may carry some specialized because it’s such a strong name they just dare not to um or they haven’t

Built up their Niche enough to Branch away from that particular Brands I hope other brands that are smaller get to get into the Limelight like custom built frames and things like that unfortunately they’ll still have a really really really high price tag to them so I really encourage a lot of the

Local bike shops as they competing against Tre they’re competing against specialized stores or competing against Pond look in the used Market it it sounds scary or like oh it’s a waste of time so forth but I tell you what that one dealer is dealing with 16% margin on their bikes right if you

Brought in some bikes that are your same brands that you carry on the floor look on face just while you’re right before you go to bed or first thing in the morning check out Facebook Marketplace or Craigslist and just see see what’s in your local market isn’t used you might

Be delightly surprised that there’s a few of those older five or 10 year old bikes that you’re crew can work and fix up and make like new pretty easily for a fraction of the price under a grand you can buy those fix them up and even

Though I had a crappier year last year I may maintained over a 30% margin Okay so I can do that in a small outfit like this bike shops that have more people to throw at this problem and scenario you send your guy in the van go grab a couple bikes bring them in

Doesn’t have to be a lot you just need to have that entry level used bike lined up with your new bikes and going oh we got this used medium full suspension brand whatever you put your name on it and it’s half the price of the new one

Blow in and this is a great way to start you know what as a consumer I’m going to be more in Tickle Pink to go buy a bike that’s half the price of a new one with twice the better component Shana I don’t care if it’s three or four or five years

Older that’s where the pros closet has really made their big win but the pros closet kept on going up they got rid of they didn’t go any lower anymore that’s it’s fine with me because that doesn’t tread on me at all I fit right underneath and I’m having a huge

Success that is one of many things that a local bike shop can do give the customer friendliness back treat them like family and you’re going to over sell over compete you just overv any of the corporate stores we’ve been competing against them for years REI uh Dick Sporting Goods Shields

They’re there they’ve already been there check and specialize it’s just another name more locations and unfortunately they’re the brands that we’ve been used to hearing all the time well how about some newer unknown brands or brands that actually support the dealers or more custom you know Black Sheep Titanium Unicorn cycle

Titanium um I think jamus is still pretty decent with their dealers you know there’s still a couple of bike brands and quite honestly as a consumer or customer you got to stop drinking the Kool-Aid of the big Brands and actually go for the actual experience with the

Shop that you really like because it is like that restaurant scenario you want them to stick around to help you out because sometimes you have a little thing going on with your bike and rolled in to take care of you and you’re out the door the big boxes are going to go

Well you need a tune up you need this that another and other Wells and it’s going to cost you a whole bunch more so we’re talking about Community peace yeah check wasn’t really helpful special special Iz not either but the thing is they’re not going to change but your

Local bike shops that surround them or hopefully they’re still around are going to change and if they’re been kind of I don’t know a little arrogant before I’m sure they’re going to be changing their tune quite quickly because they don’t have the time with the money to lose on

That and everything is sacked up against them so sorry to be a doom and gloomy on this in a sense but you know what the future for Tre is they’re going to do keep going doing more stores that’s just that’s just how it is and specialized is

Going to fall suit if they’re smart enough and that’s just just just going to be and with all that being said you still have a couple shops out there in your neck of the woods they may down to a small size like a garage like me but they’re still out there and they’re

Going to be more than happy to take care of you and help you out so you got that is the Silver Lining and the other thing is when the market starts getting better guess who’s going to actually see those improvements first smaller guys like me because we

Have the lower prices and we have the better customer service and when people start coming out of woodwork they like oh I really need to get this done or were that worked on and I’m looking for a new whatever I’m the first one they’re going to see on the SEO searches on their

Internet because I’m going to have that price point under $1,000 for them to get into writing not your check or Specialized or any of them because you know their bikes are way outrageously priced yes they’re going to come down but is the quality even remotely close

Possibly not so anyway the market of the used is definitely gone down on price to help bike shops or even yourself if you want to buy a used bike and send it into your local bike shop to be worked on you’re still going to probably keep it

Under a grand for a decent bike heck that’s great if you really get into it then you can save your pennies and go oh okay I’m going to invest more into this and then spend that two to 3,000 and still could be used it still doesn’t

Have to be in that new shiny 4,000 5,000 and quite honestly the percentage of people are buying those $5 to $10,000 bikes had to be pretty small and addition to the prices have been so low balled in the last two years um those individual bot and I don’t think going

To be buying a new bike anytime soon so sorry Tre your your high price pointment bikes are going to suffer same with you specialize upon so yeah here we are but anyway on to the next and gotta count my stuff and some other stuff and once I get that all

Counted and ride back into tearing things apart and making things right one bike at a time right any thank you for spending time with me in the garage hope you have a wonderful day if it’s nice in your neck of the woods go out for a bike ride it’s definitely

Worth it definitely have a great day garage welcome back to an nor guy bicycles hang out with a guy no that’s not right welcome back to an no guy bicycles this is as the wheel turns