Sam Burns: The SHOCKING Truth About GOLD & Mining Stocks

In a deep dive into the world of finance, the discussion revolves around the current state of commodities, mining stocks, and the looming question of a U.S. recession. Sam Burns, the chief strategist at Mill Street Research, shares valuable insights into macroeconomic indicators and their implications for the market.

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Guest: Sam Burns, Founder & Chief Strategist
Company: Mill Street Research
Twitter: @MillStResearch
www.millstreetresearch.com

#gold #recession #soarfinancially

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We’ve avoided a recession that a lot of people were expecting and that that’s caused a shift in in the markets uh the biggest of which has been that stocks have outperformed bonds by a very wide margin um and that the economy and the stock market have managed to hold up despite

Aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve which I think is really what has caught a lot of people off guard and by surprise they assumed that rate hikes of this magnitude would you know crash the economy crash earnings and crash the market and that hasn’t happened Welcome to soar financially thank you so much for joining us here where we discuss the macro to understand the micro the micro being for us the mining stocks and commodities of course because the sentiment is so Bleak so we’re trying to make some sense of why that is

I’ve invited a fantastic guest on the program today it’s Sam Burns he’s the chief strategist over at Mill Street research and we are going to talk Commodities but also macro meaning the markets like what is happening primarily in the US it’s still the number one in

The world in terms of Market we have to take a look at it is there a recession looming are we in a recession is there even a recession on the horizon if at all well and we’re trying to draw some historical some historical comparable or comparisons as well the what can we look

For or does history teach us anything that that’s the idea here uh trying to go through that and do some forecasting as well okay I warned him I’m going to ask him about the Q3 GDP expectations but also we’ll have the quarterly report season just around the corner Costco

Already put out some numbers so I’m curious to learn more about what he expects to happen or to see from the quarterly financials especially the big box retailers that I’m interested in because they’re giving you a bit of a foreshadowing of the economic situation before I switch over real quick reminder

Hit that subscribe button 80 to 85 of you watching are not subscribed let’s change that so we can bring guests like Sam on more frequently and get other guests of great caliber honors thank you so much now Sam welcome to the program it’s great to have you on and uh welcome

The first time on store financially this is great thank you for having me on absolutely yeah really looking forward to the next 25 30 minutes here with you Sam because uh as we just chatted briefly off camera here we’ve got lots to chew through a lot lots going on in

The markets and to set the scene a little bit Sam why don’t you uh give us a bit of an explanation how you see the market right now what’s the current state of the economy yeah well it’s definitely been a confusing couple of years here and um you know my view is that

Um the economy is uh the U.S economy I should say has held up a lot better than most people expected certainly uh late last year coming into early this year I think the sentiment toward the economic Outlook uh inflation and corporate earnings were all very very negative and

Bleak uh coming into this year and I think that uh you know the results have been you know better than expected not that they’ve been spectacular but simply than they’ve been better than expected we’ve avoided recession uh that a lot of people were expecting and that that’s

Caused a shift in uh in the markets uh the biggest of which has been the stocks have outperformed bonds by a very wide margin um and that the economy and the stock market have managed to hold up despite aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve which I think is really what has

Caught a lot of people off guard and by surprise they assumed that rate hikes of this magnitude would you know crash the economy crash earnings and crash the market and that hasn’t happened and I think that the offsetting factor of this cycle has been fiscal policy in the U.S

That we’ve not only had their stimulus after coven we’ve had a another round of infrastructure and kind of uh in a longer term kind of stimulus uh from uh infrastructure chips act you know things like that and that’s really been the deciding factor uh for this cycle

Relative to a lot of previous Cycles in that you have not had fiscal and monetary policy tightening at the same time you’ve had fiscal policy being supportive while monetary policy has been tightening and they’ve in some ways balanced each other out that’s not been true so much outside of the US but

That’s been the the major story here in the US from my point of view absolutely um you mentioned we avoided a recession and I need to follow up on that then I took note of that um have we completely avoided it um that soft Landing scenario that the

FED sort of signaled and even no Landing scenario is that actually Act is that true I think certainly so far I think you know given what I heard from a lot of people at the beginning of the year we should be in recession right now if that you know those forecasts were coming

True and we’re not um in fact growth is actually picking up some uh from where it was and and the first and second quarters uh in terms of you know GDP and kind of overall economic activity um and so that tells me that uh there’s still enough momentum in the economy to

Keep us away from recession and probably for an at least another you know a couple of quarters um so to me and also looking you know what corporate earnings are doing corporate earnings have been better than expected um the last two quarters for sure and

And may do so again here in the third quarter um so that tells me that uh a lot of the kind of sentiment was was quite negative but was and and as it turned out too negative and that was actually even true for the fed the FED had been predicting

A recession earlier this year and has now revised that uh to not predict a recession and have adjusted their their sort of rate forecast accordingly as well so I think you know a lot of people including you know the some of the policy makers were looking for things to

Turn out worse than they than they have in retrospect and I think again it’s the mix of policy um that’s that’s come through along with uh you know kind of special factors like you know the invasion of Ukraine and China’s movements and things like that that have uh thrown off kind of the

Traditional interpretation of the data that people typically have from past Cycles one thing that’s puzzling me a little bit and maybe you can make some sense of that is like the GDP growth of 2.2 percent uh last quarter which was a bit of surprise I think to almost everybody

Because it’s the strongest uh GDP like number we’ve seen in all of the G7 G8 so I’m really curious uh what what what’s behind that I think you’ve done some analysis on that that’s right yeah it has been stronger than expected and and better than most of the other you know developed

Countries and again I you know I come back to the fact that um U.S fiscal policy has been much more uh stimulative and supportive in a good way than uh most other policies in other countries have um it’s been uh because you had not only

I say that sort of the lagged effects of the covet stimulus where you know money was sent directly to households and all the different things that came along with that uh once even after that ended you had the sort of second round of the infrastructure related technology related uh you know inflation reduction

Act all those things that have put money into sort of manufacturing growth and things like that that are both uh driving you know job growth employment growth wage growth has helped the economy but also increase the you know productive capacity of the economy we can make more things now

Um and that’s helped bring inflation down to some degree and I think continue we’ll continue to do so uh which again hasn’t happened and the rest of the world and of course the U.S has more of its own domestic energy Supply than say Europe does for instance and that’s

Helped bring inflation down and keep growth up um in a way that is not applicable to some other markets so I think there’s things that are special to the U.S both in terms of policy and in terms of things like energy and those have helped the economy hold up uh despite you know

Higher rates and uh and the the the impact of higher rates will be felt and is being felt but it isn’t you know an immediate sort of uh crash of the economy it’s more of a slow you know grind lower in terms of uh influence on you know mortgages and housing and autos

And things like that seems like it’s a I hate using that term it’s a rolling recession because I don’t think anybody really knows what that means um but but you sort of hinted it like there are certain areas and sectors that are hurting more than others um because

I remember the Q2 GDP numbers have been propped up by auto sales or like the Auto industry just because of additional production there were some special effects in there I’m not the expert on that but I read that somewhere that the Auto industry was partially um to blame for the the strong GDP

Numbers while housing on the other end is suffering right we’ve seen like a 15 drop in home sales things like that extremely high mortgages um are we going to see more of a bifurcation in that regard uh we might yeah it’s definitely been a very sort of you know disjointed uh

Trend um and again a lot of that has lag defects from covet including the Auto industry where uh the the production of Autos was you know severely constrained for several years uh due to chip shortages and everything else and so there was a sort of a catch-up effect in

Terms of Auto production that we’ve seen this year as automakers have been able to you know resume more normal levels of you know pre-covered levels of production and that’s been that’s been a boost uh to the overall economic activity and again you’ve got things like um you know the infrastructure act

This this really driven a lot of manufacturing related growth uh the amount of construction spending and Manufacturing has like doubled in I think the last 16 or 18 months um almost directly because of all the you know electric vehicle and Battery plants and all those kind of things that

Are being built now and either directly because of government support or because of private sector responding to incentives uh in that regard and so you seen some areas like that that have been very strong whereas other areas you know have struggled a little bit more and so

You know to me it’s it’s definitely a sort of a disjointed you know activity level but it is net net Still Still positive and so better than expected and even in housing um you’ve seen the number of home sales has collapsed people just aren’t buying and selling

Homes existing homes but the number of new homes being built is actually held up pretty well and particularly in multi-family and apartments and things like that there’s been a very sharp rise in in construction so home builders are actually doing quite well uh which has

Been a big shock to them a lot of people because they assume that a seven you know plus percent mortgage rate would would crush demand for housing but so far you’ve had people not wanting to sell their houses if they have us still have a low rate mortgage and so they’ve

Keeping Supply off the market so if you can’t buy an existing home because there’s not many for sale you go buy a new home a newly built home and that’s kept demand for new homes up and kept the home builders busy so it’s very sort of counterintuitive to see you know more

Mortgage rates go up but then the home builders still building lots and selling lots of houses and I think it’s it’s because they went up so fast the mortgage market and the housing market has been almost Frozen and so uh the money goes somewhere and so it’s right

Now going into new housing and not existing housing so a lot of these things are very unusual Cycles historically um and you’ve seen these big divergences within Industries and across Industries uh they’re going to continue for a little while longer but eventually you know housing activity will slow down and

People will get used to this sort of the higher mortgage rates but that may take a while I want to talk history in a second as well but I’ve got to ask you about some short-term effects that might be sort of Weighing on the markets here within the

Next seven days actually one is the uaw’s uh the striker the action in the Auto industry uh probably going to hit the big three companies there uh quite a bit uh student loan repayments are going to start this Sunday um actually the day we’re going to air this interview wondering what the impact

Of that is and we also have a potential shutdown looming in the US that topic is not off the table yet although it seems solvable but I’m curious what your um sort of um guidance in that regard is what what do you see any effects from any of these three

Um certainly in the short run yes I think certainly the the UAW strike uh will will hurt you know production uh Auto production and sales for a little while depending on how long it goes on um and the same thing with the government shutdown you know historically they’ve tended to not have

A big long-term macro impact but in the short run it certainly makes life difficult um a lot of the money that would normally be spent when the government’s open will get spent later um but there are going to be some some things that that don’t get that don’t get done

Um and again that’s you know the risk to the economy from my standpoint um is almost more of policy mistakes than anything else um I think uh one of the things that’s maybe likely to prevent the FED for instance from raising rates any further than they already have are these sort of

Uncertainties from labor actions you know government shutdowns and uh the fact that they won’t have they may be missing some of the data um that they like the you know inflation data or GDP data things like that that the government produces um may not get produced if the government government shuts down for

More than a couple of days so there’s a lot of reasons why to be cautious about you know taking big policy steps certainly from a monetary policy standpoint I think that’ll keep the FED a little more on the sidelines but uh but overall those are headwinds and certainly are student loan repayments uh

Will uh hurt you know kind of consumer demand to some degree uh as money gets shifted towards that where it hasn’t been for the last few years yeah I’m really curious what that impact is because people have been put or the government has been pushing that back

And back further now it is looming on on Sunday really curious I’ve just Googled it it’s like I’m not even sure how much uh is is owed to a degree like how much actually has to be paid on day one and what the terms are it depends a bit I

Think on the loan service providers but uh really really interesting something to watch most definitely is discretionary spending um we’re already seeing a bit of a dip there in my opinion and Costco sort of confirmed that just this week by putting out when they put out their quarterly

Number saying well grocery sales are up but we we see a drop in discretionary spending so you know to come back to corporate earnings that you had mentioned what do you expect to see for Q3 do you see more of the same yeah I mean when I’m looking at what the

Analysts are doing with their earnings estimates uh which is often a pretty good kind of you know proxy for where there’s likely to be a lot of big positive surprises or negative surprises or more or less in line um you know in the last couple of quarters we’ve seen you know uh analysts

Uh you know raise their numbers after the quarter when they got surprised to the upside and so I think they’ve come into this war a little bit more positive than they have in previous quarters so you might not see as many big upside surprises but I don’t see them cutting

Estimates going into the quarter which is often a clue that uh the earnings are likely to disappoint and that’s true both at the company level and then sort of the aggregate level so my guess is that we won’t see any big negative surprises from corporate earnings and

You might still see some some positive supplies that’s coming in from uh from from some areas I think it’ll be more of a mixed bag and that it won’t be sort of the the positive shock that we saw in the first and second quarter earnings as

Now analysts have kind of adjusted to it and some of that momentum has flown down a bit as the impacts of some of these things we’ve just been discussing uh are going to show up in in the corporate earnings so I think there’ll be winners

And losers but I don’t think it’ll be a big shock either way um so I think earnings are generally going to be decent uh for this year and look like they’ll still grow pretty well next year so it’s it’s almost that you would expect analysts to be cutting their estimates right now

Um if you’re seeing a recession or you’re seeing bad news come through and you’re not so in the sense of a dog that didn’t bark um I think that’s what we’re seeing right now is that thing things are sort of still okay uh because otherwise we would probably be seeing more negative

Activity from the analysts just made me think of somebody if you want to enter a home you actually bring a sausage with you so the dog doesn’t bark right so I’m trying to figure out the fiscal like the infrastructure Act and the trips actors whether that’s the sausage or not right

Trying to figure it out just in terms of euphemisms right but is there anything in particular you’re watching when you look at the Q3 numbers is there anything you’re paying attention to I mentioned discretionary spending at the big spot big box retailers like the Walmarts the Costcos Sam’s Clubs all right so curious

Uh if there’s something you’re paying attention to that’s right yeah so some of those areas are going to be where you see the impact of you know wage growth and job growth uh because that’s where you know the the sort of middle and lower income spending

Is uh much more driven by uh you know wage growth and whether people have jobs whether they’re getting raises uh as opposed to say what the housing market of the stock market is doing and things like that um and so I think that’s where you’ll see that uh spending is probably in

Aggregate holding up okay but what people are deciding to spend money on may be shifting and certainly we saw that you know coming out of covid there was a lot of you know good spending people had to stay home and buy things and couldn’t go out and do services and

And then in the last year or so it’s been much more services people going out and you know traveling hotels restaurants Leisure Taylor Swift concerts all those things have been more people have been spending money and less so on you know Goods Off the Shelf at

The grocery store and so I think there’s still that sort of you know rebalancing going on within the spending because again very much the opposite of what normally happens in a traditional cycle usually in recession people uh you know continue to buy services but stop buying goods as much

And in covet it was the other way around and so now I’ve seen the reverse of that you know kind of a lagged effect as people rebalance their spending but there’s still money there to be spent I think is the key thing and that

Um some of it is going to have to go to higher mortgage payments and some of it even just in the last month or so kind of have to go to say fuel costs energy costs but I think overall the spending will hold up uh but I think you’ll see

Some of it being diverted away from you know kind of more discretionary fun things to more uh you know Necessities uh which may show up in the data as well yeah I’m really looking forward to seeing that as well or not just looking forward to it but I’m curious to to

Analyze the quarterlies and you get get some hints of where things might be heading right so one thing I want to discuss with you Sam and I brought it up on the screen as the Bloomberg commodity commodity indices you just put that out actually on Twitter like an hour ago and

I think it’s really really fitting for the theme of our Channel and something really worth discussing um and it’s the Bloomberg commodity index versus the Bloomberg commodity index X petroleum and uh one one thing you’ve mentioned is that you don’t really see a recession right now but if

I look at the you know the commodity index X petroleum like it it keeps dropping and going lower heading into something actually into what to what are we heading that’s that’s the question why is the commodity index so much lower uh gold has been hanging in there but the

Base metals are struggling you want to elaborate on that sure sure yeah and again it’s another case where there’s a Divergence going on um that’s sort of unusual and then you’ve got oil prices going up recently uh almost exclusively due to Opex and Russia’s Supply Cuts where they’ve intentionally restricted Supply to push

The price up and after several tries where they didn’t it didn’t work they now managed to get to get that to work they’ve cut supplies enough uh to to to bring to push up the price of oil but basically the price of everything else including things like natural gas but

Base Metals a lot of other things have not gone up and so that’s why that you’re saying that very wide Divergence whereas before you saw uh the kind of the the X petroleum and the overall index moving much more closely together you’ve seen that Divergence widening because most Commodities are not going

Up and in fact they’re still falling and to me that’s uh partly or you know an indication that inflation globally is is not likely to be a real problem outside of just the impact of oil so you know central banks probably don’t have as much to worry about that the underlying

Sort of inflation pressure here is still slowing and that’s why I expect you know reported inflation to continue to kind of gradually slow down and that you shouldn’t see much more in the way of policy tightening certainly in the U.S it also tells me that the impact of

China’s weakness is much more visible now than it has been past Cycles um and you know my view is that a lot of Commodities are probably going to stay under pressure unless there’s a supply shock like OPEC or something else that uh the demand that had previously

Come from China for the last 20 or 30 years has been sort of a general support for many Commodities including a lot of you know base metals and things like that uh just really isn’t going to be there that they’re not going to be able

To do the kind of stimulus and and large demand for Commodities that they have in the past and that that’s really what we’re seeing here is that uh Global demand and particularly from China is relatively weak for a lot of those things and while the U.S has some some

Support from things from a stimulus the rest of the world doesn’t really have that and that there’s not really a shortage of most Commodities again unless it’s sort of an engineered shortage driven by either a war or uh or conscious decision political Decisions by by OPEC and so that tells me that

It’s it’s only kind of contrived supply shortages that are really driving things um in the broad sense rather than overall inflationary pressures or or demand talking about demand I’m curious and I have to ask you you could you can tell me off actually like I’m curious It’s like

How do you forecast or like what’s your forecast going forward let’s let’s say for the next six months I think anything beyond that is uh is dreaming and uh does it is very difficult to predict in my opinion because there’s so many moving Parts but for the next six months

Let’s look at base Metals in particular and maybe oil and gasp but uh what do you forecast yeah I mean my general view has been that Commodities you know as sort of as a whole will stay sort of Under Pressure I mean there’s not going to be any

Really big move to the upside in most Commodities and again I think that’s partly China and partly the sort of slowing uh the tightening monetary policy in a lot of the developed world and uh the the lack of you know dramatic fiscal support uh most places outside of

The US and even probably fading here in the U.S so I don’t see a big demand driver for Commodities in general and unless again there’s a supply shock of some kind I don’t see that being the driver so OPEC really stands out it’s kind of the diverging Factor where

They’re trying to push oil prices up and have succeeded recently um but overall I think that the pressure is going to be to the downside so I’ve been kind of underway the commodity space in general and inequities um just because I don’t see there’s a really a six to 12 month you know

Positive view there uh they’re going to be some tactical opportunities like we’ve seen in oil potentially but the fact that you know oil is up in natural gas is not because there’s no cartel for for natural gas that there’s still plenty of it to go around and the the

General long-term you know shift away from fossil fuels I think are all kind of factors that argue against a big upswing in Commodities in general and that it’s only going to be specific things uh that uh you know narrow kind of areas within Commodities that might have have spiked to the upside

Uh interesting really curious like trying to because the EV Revolution everybody paints a picture we need a lot more copper but I don’t see it in the numbers like and yeah there’s plenty of copper around I mean there’s more mining going on uh in in China and a lot of other places in

The world um there isn’t a shortage so far and so if some of those projections come to to light then yeah there might be a shortage at some point but you know they just found a whole bunch of new lithium I think here in the US uh recently and

Uh so there’s a lot of you know areas where um it turns out there is enough to go around there there are their supply that can be found and dug up if you know if the price is right and if people are looking for it um so I think there’s there’s uh you

Know a tendency to assume that whatever supplies are there are fixed but in some cases over over you know a year or two uh you can there can be new supplies found and even oil oil and gas production in the US has risen back up

To us near its highs as a result of the kind of boost in prices lately um so there is Supply to me demand to some degree in the longer term and so you’re only going to get these shorter term spikes uh when Supply suddenly kind of has a shock

We have to talk gold and silver as well we primarily talk base Metals oil and gas and curious what your price forecast or um your your gut tells you about uh the precious metals here sure and certainly precious metals you know behave differently than a lot of

The uh kind of other Commodities that get used in the economy as a practical use um and there you know my kind of macro view on that tends to be uh you know real interest rates and the dollar uh have a big influence on the direction of gold and silver the precious metals

Um and the rising real rates and Rising U.S dollar tend to be negative had been you know had to be headwinds for uh gold and silver and that’s certainly what we’ve seen the last couple of months as real rates have been you know shooting higher in the U.S

Um and the dollar has been stronger which you know tend to reinforce each other sometimes uh that’s been a headwind for precious metals uh but certainly earlier you know in the last year or two when we saw you know certainly a drop in real rates in 2020

Um and a weaker dollar then you saw the big move up in Gold uh and silver and so to me you know your view on on gold and silver and precious metals has to somehow tie to your view on on real interest rates and uh the US dollar if

You think they’re going to keep going higher you probably want to avoid precious metals for now over the next few months if you think there’s a chance that they’ll break lower then you you have a good reading to want to you know get more involved there so right now I’m

Not seeing a big strong Buy Signal for precious metals based on those macro factors or even on the the earnings estimates that I see in the analysts who track gold stocks or you know mining stocks they’re still relatively cautious um so technically I would probably stay

More on the sidelines but uh once real race really you know break they start to to plateau and turn lower um then I think you’d see the the Tailwinds for precious metals come back and so in that way they’re in some ways a good hedge if you’re losing money on

Your bond portfolio because real rates are rising um then you can you can think about precious metals in that way but I think um they’ll have a lot better chance of outperforming uh if once real rates kind of peak and turn lower um Sam what what is one of the sectors

You’re extremely bullish on right now like uh because we all like a lot of our listeners are obviously long-term investors or long investors uh usually not short so there’s got to be a bullish scenario out there somewhere and uh where is it well certainly I think in the U.S uh you

Know technology still looks pretty good in the sense that um when I look at where the earnings Trends are the most favorable um certainly a lot of these services and software type companies anything to do with AI those also have pretty solid support now some of them have gotten

Ahead of themselves on a valuation basis so they would be sort of Buy on a pullback type uh type areas and then some of the areas that are still benefiting from the stimulus Industrials type areas that uh have that support from manufacturing related construction those still have I think some Tailwinds

For another for a while longer some parts of the consumer area I think have relative strength some may wobble a little bit here but those are kind of the areas of relative strength that I’m seeing um oversake in the commodity areas or areas like healthcare or utilities and

Things right now so you know to my mind some of those areas that have sort of more secular prospects or that have a longer term uh theme of fiscal support are probably areas to look at still here in the U.S fantastic um sort of the last question Sam here

And I’m interested in the intro I want to draw some historical comparisons as well is there anything or any time in the past that we can compare to today because it seems like a lot of the experts are having a tough time coming up with

The right time frame to look at yeah a lot of people quote just the late 70s with Arthur Burns and Paul volcker in that current scenario but every it’s completely different though there’s like little pieces that would fit but uh overall it’s very difficult like what’s your assessment there what do you think

Yeah I know you’re right there’s been a lot of different uh comparisons and certainly I’ve heard a lot of the ones about the the 70s and early 80s in my mind we’re not really in the sort of uh 70s you know uh persistent inflation scenario

Um there are a lot of factors then that that drove that including oil embargoes uh you know bad Harvest you know monetary policy Vietnam going off the gold standard a lot of things happen then that are not happening now or and not going to happen

Um to my mind it’s almost more like the post-world War II scenario the late 40s early 50s when you had a big shock from the from the war um that uh constrained you know production and rerouted the economy in a lot of ways and that then once it was

Sort of released and things kind of went back to normal people came back from the war you know all the rationing and everything came came loose you had a burst of inflation for a couple of years in the early 50s and then things settled down as Supply basically came back

Online for domestic production not wartime production and so you had a big burst of inflation uh you had you know basically the workforce and the economy had to be reorganized uh toward in that case the war in this case it would have been covid um and now that that’s reversing and

We’re going back to more sort of normal scenarios inflation comes back down Supply kind of comes back online and policy can can readjust to that um so in that case you know they had you know interest rates were suppressed for for quite a while and then you know had

To readjust higher that’s what we’re seeing now um but I don’t see the kind of you know decade-long inflation and the uh rise in interest rates the double digits that we saw in the you know the 70s and early 80s um because the demographics are different the underlying drivers of the

Economy and inflation are different and I don’t see the the unusual combination of factors that drove that uh recurring here um again you know shocks can happen um you know if there’s more Wars break out or more pandemics or things like that then you know who knows but uh in

My mind if if we avoid any you know major major your shocks like that there is enough uh kind of I think um economic activity and policy support to get us back to sort of what I consider more normal kind of pre-covered uh you know activity levels and I think the

Demographics are such that uh you won’t have that pressure on the longer term uh Trends and inflation and output very very last question Sam is the Fed done raising rates I think it is I think they’re going to continue to kind of keep their hawkish messaging they’re not going to say

They’re done because they want to keep that door open uh but I think that they realize that they’ve done a lot uh that the you know the banking system and the you know credit markets and mortgage and everything have you know been constrained which is what they can do

Um I think inflation is coming down I think over the next few months we’ll see that even more clearly um and so I don’t think they feel like there’s much more they can do they can’t really do much about OPEC and oil prices and they know that but I think they want

To make sure that people don’t see them declaring Victory and saying mission accomplished just yet because the reported inflation is still sort of elevated so I think they’ll keep the hawkish messaging going for a while longer but I don’t think they’ll actually hiker rates any further they have stamp wonderful conversation I really

Appreciate the insights and your time obviously committed to this interview um where can we find more of you sure so certainly uh Twitter as you mentioned uh a post there under Mill Street research pretty often also on LinkedIn uh posting you know comments and and appearances there uh millstreet

Research.com is the website uh there’s examples of the research there uh there’s a Blog that I update once in a while there as well uh so you secretly can reach out there uh there’s a contact form if anyone wants to reach out and find out more Fantastic Sam thank you so

Much for your time and to everybody else thank you so much for tuning in to soar financially if you haven’t done so hit that subscribe button we really really appreciate it leave a comment below as well engage with us what do you think is going to happen in the next three to six

Months are we heading into a a recession how bad is it going to be uh or how positive is it going to be is the market going to Rally we had a guest on yesterday that said well the market is going there’s going to be a massive melt

Up in the markets before it crashes well like is that something you’re looking at so I’m really curious to hear from you and please share the video with like-minded investors as well we appreciate that it helps us bring guests like Sam on more regularly and guest of

Other grade caliber as well thank you so much for tuning in we’ll be back with lots more