Retired Lt Col Daniel Davis reacts to shifting predictions in the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia war.

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    In a jarring reversal of US foreign policy the Biden Administration seems to openly acknowledge that the war on Ukraine will end with diplomacy and lost territory from Ukraine and not through total Ukrainian Victory the White House gave the updated policy aim to Politico and argued this had been America’s

    Position throughout the conflict however as friend of the show that galani posted on X arguing Ukraine would have to give up land is something which if you said it six months ago made you Putin’s right-hand man the news comes as America’s European allies encourage the US to send more military aid while

    Appraising Aid sent so far here’s a German government spokesperson saying just that also on Ukraine’s list of concerns pension payments the financial times reports that without Western Aid Kev might have to delay paying wages for 500,000 civil servants and 1.4 million teachers as well as benefits for 10 million pensioners reportedly the

    Ukrainian government is racing to Cobble together money to pay for public services and benefits after promised funding from his closest allies failed to come through needs 37 billion in external support next year here to discuss the situation in Ukraine and what the West should do front of the

    Show and Military expert Daniel Davis and you can catch his show Deep dive on YouTube welcome back once again thanks Robbie good to be here so it’s it’s funny that we’re AR I mean funny is the wrong word for it it’s it’s notable that we’re arriving at a moment that you long

    Predicted on this very show where the even the very Pro Ukrainian resistance uh kind of figures pundit class uh government military experts are conceding that the only way out of this situation is negotiation and that that negotiation might be painful for Ukraine but it will you know not result in the

    End of the UK entire Ukrainian Nation it will just be some kind of cessation of territory yeah Robbie this is really painful to to be heing now you know now we’re closing on the 2-year Mark of this war when we had a deal almost in the bag

    In in March April of 2022 barely a month into the war the outlines of a negotiated settlement were on the table both sides generally agreed to then it was sabotaged either by bis Johnson or or by the US depending on who you want to believe what actually happened all we

    Know is that it was absolutely rejected at that time Ukraine could have had even Mari opal was still in their control at that time all these cities that have been wiped out would all have been in their control and I think I did say on your show a couple of times that the

    Longer this goes the less territory they have and the worst their negotiated outcome will be but there will be one because Ukraine didn’t have the military capacity to win that should have been self-evident but now then it’s despite all the spin and all the pretending that it was otherwise now you’re left with

    The reality that’s finally sinking in that we’re going to have to do a negotiated settlement and unfortunately that’s going to be on much worse terms for zilinsky than it would have been otherwise but so far zilinski still isn’t saying he’s going to do that he’s still talking about his big plans for

    2024 so we we got a bit of a problem that’s going to have to be solved pretty quickly I I understand the US incentive here to quote weaken Russia as they admitted very early on into this conflict but I do wonder what zalinsky thought the endgame of this was going to

    Be were there what kind of promises were extended um behind closed doors or tacitly that that made zalinski and ukrainians feel like this was a proxy war that would ultimately benefit them when the reality of Russia being a nuclear power with a military that could not be defeated by Ukraine alone and

    With the United States having understandable reluctance to engage in World War II in a direct conflict with another nuclear power I mean what on Earth could possibly have been on the minds of ukrainians as a potential ingame here that’s better than what we’re seeing now now it’s really hard

    For me to improve on what you just said that that one dialogue there you really laid out the whole thing in pretty star clear language uh historians are going to have to tell us what was actually being said behind the scenes at various points uh we can’t know that for sure

    But I I think that probably the biggest issue is that zilinski and many in the west and I’m talking some retired three and fourstar US generals frankly who have been feeding this narrative that they’ve been thinking with their heart and and not with their mind and and look

    I get it their country was invaded I mean there there’s every reason for them to hate the Russians and to hate what was done and to want to reverse it that’s that’s clear and and unquestioned but you also have to have the reality involved here it doesn’t matter what you

    Want it matters what you can do and what’s reasonable and what’s probable and and the the military balance has been going in Russia’s favor has been in Russia’s favor since February 2024 22 even when they made these horrible egregious mistakes in the first nine months of War they’re big enough to

    Overcome those mistakes Ukraine is not and now then they’ve lost an entire generation of men men they’re going to need to to recover their country and to move back into the future and they got to stop the bleeding right now and ending the war on negotiated settlement

    Is the absolute best they can get at this point I’m telling you if they don’t agree to it now they’re going to lose even more territory before it’s all over let’s say your perspective was from an American foreign policy perspective Russia is a is a foe a geopolitical foe

    Um yeah Ukraine is not going to defeat Russia but we want to make Russia hurt we want to punish them for having done this so we’ll you know we’ll send some money some arbs to Ukraine it’s their people dying in this effort not ours and

    Even if it’s not going to work out let’s say the goal is just to punish Russia to hurt them little bit maybe a lot for as long as we conceivably can and now that’s all over from that perspective how much damage did this actually inflict on Russia economically

    Militarily Etc Robbie if we had ended this war at about the oneyear Mark uh or even at the the in the the February or March April period of 2022 I mentioned a minute ago Russia would have been harm they would have been significantly damaged but because we didn’t end it now

    That Russia has their industry cranking on all cylinders they’re producing new weapons of war that they didn’t even have before they have burned off all of this chaff that they had at the beginning that were these terrible leaders that they had now that they have experienced leaders in in large scale

    Operations they’re now getting stronger than they were prior to February not weaker so again the longer we go the worse for our own uh interests are because Russia is going to be stronger conventionally afterwards so we need to turn this off quickly before they get even stronger luten Colonel thank you so

    Much as always for joining us today thanks a Lot

    39 Comments

    1. Can't give up what is not yours. The Luhansk and Donetsk Peoples Republic, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions chose to join the Russian Federation in 2023 after 9 years of bravely trying but failing to oust the USA's puppet administrations.

    2. Oh no! Ukraine can’t pay for pensions! So US struggling to afford social security, but we are supposed to pay for foreign pensions. Biden is an absolute disgrace.

    3. All the idiots that believed Ukraine had a chance to win are the same idiots that thought lock downs and Vaccines were the right thing to do. 😂😂😂

    4. well thats what happens when you listen to BOJO the Clown, Ukraine is finished Brexit also a total disaster and finished,.. guess the moral of the story is dont listen to clowns advice………

    5. Russia is reliant on N. Korean shells that are inconsistently made landing short or long of their target, they are reliant on Iran for drones, they are reliant on china for trade and evading santions. russia is defeating itself. U.S., S. Korea, Japan, and EU, are ramping up military production. Over 315,000 dead russain troops, with 2 mobilizations in russia. 2,200 tanks destroyed. Around 1/3 of russian armored vehicles are destroyed. Around 1/5 of russia's black sea fleet destroyed. How is that anything but loosing?

    6. If UA and the US would have been acted properly and on the same level with Putin 10 years ago, UA would be safe, with a full territory and without any destruction!!!

    7. Zelensky will be taking a trip to the Caribbean soon. He is a complete idiot and a crook. I guarantee he was skimming money as HERSH has already reported. He will either be sent to exile or arrested by time this is over.

    8. The USA will be on hook for all the costs of rebuilding Ukraine. Contractors will be lining up for lucrative US government contracts at the cost of hundreds of billions more in US taxpayer dollars.

    9. The warmonger embezzler, ZIONIST Jew V. Zelensky , would be president of " Greater Israel " Ukraine , is not " well liked " by working class CHRISTIANS in " OUR democracy " USA. It is not enough for an ally to be liked . He must be WELL LIKED .. Which is also true of Willie Loman in Arthur Miller's famous play " Death of a Salesman ".
      The mainstream news media in the United States will never succeed in making Zionist APARTHEID Israel " well liked " here.

    10. Bottom line this should have been a biz transaction Russia only needed a lease deal for port access its military and commercial ships and oil exploration. No reason for all this death and destruction

    11. Had Russia not began the SMO in February 2022 Ukraine would have seized the Donbass and would be well on it's way to full NATO membership. Everyone forgets that there was a massive build up of Ukraine forces in the area prior to Russia responding to the requests of the two oblasts (Donesk, Lughanst) for help.

    12. War instigated by the west. They teased Russia into invasion.They neglected Russia’s security concerns regarding nato expansion. At the beginning of war Russians captured capital Kyiv and retreated all of the sudden. You know why Putin offered peace agreement according to which Ukraine dumps its desire to join NATO and Putin gives back all occupied territories.But Boris Johnson came told to Ukrainian government to not sign any agreement and fight instead. West started ramping Ukraine up with weapons they knew Ukraine can’t win. They just want to make money of this war. Whole generation of Ukrainian men gone. Country is devastated. At the end west gonna dump Ukraine just like Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

    13. Well, Biri war is a racket as Gen Smedley said about 100 years ago. All the leaders of Ukraine saw a money grift to get rich. Same with the US and EU politicians thur defense contractors campaign contributions and JOBS once out of office. It's simple. You don't know this? Really?

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